How will global change affect plant reproduction? A framework for mast seeding trends

Fine-tuning mast seeding: as resources accumulate, plants become more sensitive to weather cues

Interannual variability of seed production, masting, has far-reaching ecological impacts, including effects on forest regeneration and the population dynamics of seed consumers. It is important to understand the mechanisms driving masting to predict how plant populations and ecosystem dynamics may change into the future, and for short-term forecasting of seed production to aid management. We used long-term observations of individual flowering effort in snow tussocks (Chionochloa pallens) and seed production in European beech (Fagus sylvatica) to test how endogenous resource levels and weather variation interact in driving masting. In both species, there was an interaction between the weather cue and plant resources. If resource reserves were high, even weak temperature cues triggered relatively high reproductive effort, and depleted resources suppressed reproduction even in the presence of strong cues. Resource dynamics played dual roles of both suppressant and prompter of reproduction, allowing plants to fine-tune the length of intervals between large seeding years regardless of variable cue frequency. The strong interaction between resource reserves and weather cues has immediate application in mast forecasting models increasingly important for global afforestation efforts. Moreover, the important role of resource reserves in the plant response to weather cues will dictate the masting responses to climate change.

Widespread breakdown in masting in European beech due to rising summer temperatures

Climate change effects on tree reproduction are poorly understood, even though the resilience of populations relies on sufficient regeneration to balance increasing rates of mortality. Forest-forming tree species often mast, i.e. reproduce through synchronised year-to-year variation in seed production, which improves pollination and reduces seed predation. Recent observations in European beech show, however, that current climate change can dampen interannual variation and synchrony of seed production and that this masting breakdown drastically reduces the viability of seed crops. Importantly, it is unclear under which conditions masting breakdown occurs and how widespread breakdown is in this pan-European species. Here, we analysed 50 long-term datasets of population-level seed production, sampled across the distribution of European beech, and identified increasing summer temperatures as the general driver of masting breakdown. Specifically, increases in site-specific mean maximum temperatures during June and July were observed across most of the species range, while the interannual variability of population-level seed production (CVp) decreased. The declines in CVp were greatest, where temperatures increased most rapidly. Additionally, the occurrence of crop failures and low seed years has decreased during the last four decades, signalling altered starvation effects of masting on seed predators. Notably, CVp did not vary among sites according to site mean summer temperature. Instead, masting breakdown occurs in response to warming local temperatures (i.e. increasing relative temperatures), such that the risk is not restricted to populations growing in warm average conditions. As lowered CVp can reduce viable seed production despite the overall increase in seed count, our results warn that a covert mechanism is underway that may hinder the regeneration potential of European beech under climate change, with great potential to alter forest functioning and community dynamics.

The contribution of carbon budget to masting intervals in Veratrum album populations inhabiting different elevations

PREMISE

Mast flowering/seeding is often more extreme in lower-resource environments, such as alpine compared to lowland habitats. We studied a masting herb that had less extreme masting at higher elevations, and tested if this difference could be explained by higher photosynthetic productivity and/or lower reproductive investment at the higher-elevation sites.

METHODS

We examined the relationship between flowering intervals and carbon budget (i.e., the balance between reproductive investment and annual carbon fixation) in a masting herb, Veratrum album subsp. oxysepalum, across five lowland and six alpine populations in northern Japan. We evaluated the previous flowering histories of individual plants based on rhizome morphology and analyzed the masting patterns of individual populations. Total mass of the reproductive organs, as a proxy of reproductive investment, was compared between the lowland and alpine populations. Annual carbon fixation was estimated on the basis of photosynthetic capacity, total leaf area per plant, and seasonal transition of light availability.

RESULTS

Interval between high-flowering years was shorter and total reproductive investment was smaller in the alpine than in the lowland populations. Owing to its high photosynthetic capacity and continuous bright conditions, annual carbon fixation per plant was 1.5 times greater in alpine habitat than in lowland habitat. These results suggest that V. album alpine populations have shorter flowering intervals than lowland populations due to faster recovery from energy loss after reproduction.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study demonstrated that masting intervals in V. album populations can be explained by habitat-specific carbon budget balances.

Tree-ring isotopic imprints on time series of reproductive effort indicate warming-induced co-limitation by sink and source processes in stone pine

Increasing evidence indicates that tree growth processes, including reproduction, can be either sink- or source-limited, or simultaneously co-limited by sink and source, depending on the interplay between internal and environmental factors. We tested the hypothesis that the relative strengths of photosynthate supply and demand by stem growth and reproduction create variable competition for substrate that is imprinted in the tree-ring isotopes (C and O) of stone pine (Pinus pinea L.), a masting gymnosperm with large costs of reproduction, under warming-induced drought. Across five representative stands of the Spanish Northern Plateau, we also identified reproductive phases where weather drivers of cone yield (CY) have varied over a 60-year period (1960-2016). We found that these drivers gradually shifted from winter-spring conditions 3 years before seed rain (cone setting) to a combination of 3- and 1-year lagged effects (kernel filling). Additionally, we observed positive regional associations between carbon isotope discrimination (Δ13C) of the year of kernel filling and CY arising at the turn of this century, which progressively offset similarly positive relationships between Δ13C of the year of cone setting and CY found during the first half of the study period. Altogether, these results pinpoint the increasing dependence of reproduction on fresh assimilates and suggest sink and source co-limitation superseding the sink-limited functioning of reproduction dominant before 2000. Under climate warming, it could be expected that drier conditions reinforce the role of source limitation on reproduction and, hence, on regeneration, forest structure and economic profit of the nutlike seeds of the species.

Wood warbler population dynamics in response to mast seeding regimes in Europe

Mast seeding is the episodic, massive production of plant seeds synchronized over large areas. The resulting superabundance of seeds represents a resource pulse that can profoundly affect animal populations across trophic levels. Following years of high seed production, the abundance of both seed consumers and their predators increase. Higher predator abundance leads to increased predation pressure across the trophic web, impacting nonseed consumers such as the wood warbler Phylloscopus sibilatrix through increased nest predation after tree mast years. Over the past 30 years, the frequency of tree seed masts has increased, while wood warbler populations have declined in several regions of Europe. We hypothesized that increasing mast frequencies may have contributed to the observed population declines by creating suboptimal breeding conditions in years after masting. We measured reproductive output in four study areas in central Europe, which was between 0.61 and 1.24 fledglings lower in the years following masting than nonmasting. For each study area, we used matrix population models to predict population trends based on the estimated reproductive output and the local mast frequencies. We then compared the predicted with the observed population trends to assess if the frequency of mast years had contributed to the population dynamics. In Wielkopolska National Park (PL) and Hessen (DE), masting occurred on average only every 4 years and populations were stable or nearly so, whereas in Jura (CH) and Białowieża National Park (PL), masting occurred every 2 and 2.5 years, respectively, and populations were declining. The simple matrix population models predicted the relative difference among local population trends over the past 10-20 years well, suggesting that the masting frequency may partly explain regional variation in population trends. Simulations suggest that further increases in mast frequency will lead to further declines in wood warbler populations. We show that changes in a natural process, such as mast seeding, may contribute to the decline in animal populations through cascading effects.

Asymmetric pre-growing season warming may jeopardize seed reproduction of the sand-stabilizing shrub Caragana microphylla

Our current understanding of the processes and mechanisms by which seasonal asymmetric warming affects seed reproduction in semiarid regions, which are essential in preserving the stability of both vegetation ecosystem structure and function, remains poorly understood. Here, we conducted a field warming experiment, including pre-growing season warming (W1), in-growing season warming (W2), and combined pre- and in-growing season warming (W3) treatments, to investigate the seed reproductive strategy of Caragana microphylla, an important sand-stabilizing shrub, from the perspective of reproductive phenology, reproductive effort, and reproductive success. Results show that the warming treatments advanced the initial stages of reproductive phenology, prolonged its duration, and decreased its synchrony (magnitude = W3 > W2 > W1). Additionally, flowering phenology was more sensitive to warming than podding phenology. The W1 treatment inclined seed reproduction towards the conservative strategy with low reproductive effort and success. The W3 treatment tended to increase seed reproductive effort and success. While the W2 treatment did not affect reproductive success, it did increase reproductive effort. Changes in reproductive phenology explained 20 % of the variation in reproductive effort and 38 % of the variation in reproductive success. However, these changes also directly hindered reproductive success (direct effect = -0.57) while indirectly promoting reproductive success (indirect effect = 0.27) by increasing reproductive efforts. Our results reveal that the seasonal asymmetry of warming altered the seed reproduction strategy of sand-stabilizing shrubs, with warmer winters and springs before the growing season decreasing seed fecundity.

Reproduction alternation in trees: testing the resource depletion hypothesis using experimental fruit removal in Quercus ilex

The keystones of resource budget models to explain mast seeding are that fruit production depletes tree stored resources, which become subsequently limiting to flower production the following year. These two hypotheses have, however, rarely been tested in forest trees. Using a fruit removal experiment, we tested whether preventing fruit development would increase nutrient and carbohydrates storage and modify allocation to reproduction and vegetative growth the following year. We removed all the fruits from nine adult Quercus ilex L. trees shortly after fruit set and compared, with nine control trees, the concentrations of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), zinc (Zn), potassium (K) and starch in leaves, twigs and trunk before, during and after the development of female flowers and fruits. The following year, we measured the production of vegetative and reproductive organs as well as their location on the new spring shoots. Fruit removal prevented the depletion of N and Zn in leaves during fruit growth. It also modified the seasonal dynamics in Zn, K and starch in twigs, but had no effect on reserves stored in the trunk. Fruit removal increased the production of female flowers and leaves the following year, and decreased the production of male flowers. Our results show that resource depletion operates differently for male and female flowering, because the timing of organ formation and the positioning of flowers in shoot architecture differ between male and female flowers. Our results suggest that N and Zn availability constrain flower production in Q. ilex, but also that other regulatory pathways might be involved. They strongly encourage further experiments manipulating fruit development over multiple years to describe the causal relationships between variations in resource storage and/or uptake, and male and female flower production in masting species.

Reproductive collapse in European beech results from declining pollination efficiency in large trees

Climate warming increases tree mortality which will require sufficient reproduction to ensure population viability. However, the response of tree reproduction to climate change remains poorly understood. Warming can reduce synchrony and interannual variability of seed production ("masting breakdown") which can increase seed predation and decrease pollination efficiency in trees. Here, using 40 years of observations of individual seed production in European beech (Fagus sylvatica), we showed that masting breakdown results in declining viable seed production over time, in contrast to the positive trend apparent in raw seed count data. Furthermore, tree size modulates the consequences of masting breakdown on viable seed production. While seed predation increased over time mainly in small trees, pollination efficiency disproportionately decreased in larger individuals. Consequently, fecundity declined over time across all size classes, but the overall effect was greatest in large trees. Our study showed that a fundamental biological relationship-correlation between tree size and viable seed production-has been reversed as the climate has warmed. That reversal has diverse consequences for forest dynamics; including for stand- and biogeographical-level dynamics of forest regeneration. The tree size effects suggest management options to increase forest resilience under changing climates.

Large investment of stored nitrogen and phosphorus in female cones is consistent with infrequent reproduction events of Pinus koraiensis, a high value woody oil crop in Northeast Asia

Pinus koraiensis is famous for its high-quality timber production all the way and is much more famous for its high value health-care nut oil production potential since 1990's, but the less understanding of its reproduction biology seriously hindered its nut productivity increase. Exploring the effects of reproduction on nutrient uptake, allocation and storage help to understand and modify reproduction patterns in masting species and high nut yield cultivar selection and breeding. Here, we compared seasonality in growth and in nitrogen ([N]) and phosphorus ([P]) concentrations in needles, branches and cones of reproductive (cone-bearing) and vegetative branches (having no cones) of P. koraiensis during a masting year. The growth of one- and two-year-old reproductive branches was significantly higher than that of vegetative branches. Needle, phloem and xylem [N] and [P] were lower in reproductive branches than in vegetative branches, although the extent and significance of the differences between branch types varied across dates. [N] and [P] in most tissues were high in spring, decreased during summer, and then recovered by the end of the growing season. Overall, [N] and [P] were highest in needles, lowest in the xylem and intermediate in the phloem. More than half of the N (73.5%) and P (51.6%) content in reproductive branches were allocated to cones. There was a positive correlation between cone number and N and P content in needles (R² = 0.64, R² = 0.73) and twigs (R² = 0.65, R² = 0.62) of two-year-old reproductive branches. High nutrient sink strength of cones and vegetative tissues of reproductive branches suggested that customized fertilization practices can help improve crop yield in Pinus koraiensis.

MASTREE+: Time-series of plant reproductive effort from six continents

Significant gaps remain in understanding the response of plant reproduction to environmental change. This is partly because measuring reproduction in long-lived plants requires direct observation over many years and such datasets have rarely been made publicly available. Here we introduce MASTREE+, a data set that collates reproductive time-series data from across the globe and makes these data freely available to the community. MASTREE+ includes 73,828 georeferenced observations of annual reproduction (e.g. seed and fruit counts) in perennial plant populations worldwide. These observations consist of 5971 population-level time-series from 974 species in 66 countries. The mean and median time-series length is 12.4 and 10 years respectively, and the data set includes 1122 series that extend over at least two decades (≥20 years of observations). For a subset of well-studied species, MASTREE+ includes extensive replication of time-series across geographical and climatic gradients. Here we describe the open-access data set, available as a.csv file, and we introduce an associated web-based app for data exploration. MASTREE+ will provide the basis for improved understanding of the response of long-lived plant reproduction to environmental change. Additionally, MASTREE+ will enable investigation of the ecology and evolution of reproductive strategies in perennial plants, and the role of plant reproduction as a driver of ecosystem dynamics.