Predicting resilience through the lens of competing adjustments to vegetation function

An eco-physiological model of forest photosynthesis and transpiration under combined nitrogen and water limitation

Although the separate effects of water and nitrogen (N) limitations on forest growth are well known, the question of how to predict their combined effects remains a challenge for modeling of climate change impacts on forests. Here, we address this challenge by developing a new eco-physiological model that accounts for plasticity in stomatal conductance and leaf N concentration. Based on optimality principle, our model determines stomatal conductance and leaf N concentration by balancing carbon uptake maximization, hydraulic risk and cost of maintaining photosynthetic capacity. We demonstrate the accuracy of the model predictions by comparing them against gross primary production estimates from eddy covariance flux measurements and sap-flow measurement scaled canopy transpiration in a long-term fertilized and an unfertilized Scots pine (Pinus sylvestris L.) forest in northern Sweden. The model also explains the response to N fertilization as a consequence of (i) reduced carbon cost of N uptake and (ii) increased leaf area per hydraulic conductance. The results suggest that leaves optimally coordinate N concentration and stomatal conductance both on short (weekly) time scales in response to weather conditions and on longer time scales in response to soil water and N availabilities.

Generalized Stomatal Optimization of Evolutionary Fitness Proxies for Predicting Plant Gas Exchange Under Drought, Heatwaves, and Elevated CO2

Stomata control plant water loss and photosynthetic carbon gain. Developing more generalized and accurate stomatal models is essential for earth system models and predicting responses under novel environmental conditions associated with global change. Plant optimality theories offer one promising approach, but most such theories assume that stomatal conductance maximizes photosynthetic net carbon assimilation subject to some cost or constraint of water. We move beyond this approach by developing a new, generalized optimality theory of stomatal conductance, optimizing any non-foliar proxy that requires water and carbon reserves, like growth, survival, and reproduction. We overcome two prior limitations. First, we reconcile the computational efficiency of instantaneous optimization with a more biologically meaningful dynamic feedback optimization over plant lifespans. Second, we incorporate non-steady-state physics in the optimization to account for the temporal changes in the water, carbon, and energy storage within a plant and its environment that occur over the timescales that stomata act, contrary to previous theories. Our optimal stomatal conductance compares well to observations from seedlings, saplings, and mature trees from field and greenhouse experiments. Our model predicts predispositions to mortality during the 2018 European drought and captures realistic responses to environmental cues, including the partial alleviation of heat stress by evaporative cooling and the negative effect of accumulating foliar soluble carbohydrates, promoting closure under elevated CO2. We advance stomatal optimality theory by incorporating generalized evolutionary fitness proxies and enhance its utility without compromising its realism, offering promise for future models to more realistically and accurately predict global carbon and water fluxes.

A moving target: trade-offs between maximizing carbon and minimizing hydraulic stress for plants in a changing climate

Observational evidence indicates that tree leaf area may acclimate in response to changes in water availability to alleviate hydraulic stress. However, the underlying mechanisms driving leaf area changes and consequences of different leaf area allocation strategies remain unknown. Here, we use a trait-based hydraulically enabled tree model with two endmember leaf area allocation strategies, aimed at either maximizing carbon gain or moderating hydraulic stress. We examined the impacts of these strategies on future plant stress and productivity. Allocating leaf area to maximize carbon gain increased productivity with high CO2, but systematically increased hydraulic stress. Following an allocation strategy to avoid increased future hydraulic stress missed out on 26% of the potential future net primary productivity in some geographies. Both endmember leaf area allocation strategies resulted in leaf area decreases under future climate scenarios, contrary to Earth system model (ESM) predictions. Leaf area acclimation to avoid increased hydraulic stress (and potentially the risk of accelerated mortality) was possible, but led to reduced carbon gain. Accounting for plant hydraulic effects on canopy acclimation in ESMs could limit or reverse current projections of future increases in leaf area, with consequences for the carbon and water cycles, and surface energy budgets.

PSInet: a new global water potential network

Given the pressing challenges posed by climate change, it is crucial to develop a deeper understanding of the impacts of escalating drought and heat stress on terrestrial ecosystems and the vital services they offer. Soil and plant water potential play a pivotal role in governing the dynamics of water within ecosystems and exert direct control over plant function and mortality risk during periods of ecological stress. However, existing observations of water potential suffer from significant limitations, including their sporadic and discontinuous nature, inconsistent representation of relevant spatio-temporal scales and numerous methodological challenges. These limitations hinder the comprehensive and synthetic research needed to enhance our conceptual understanding and predictive models of plant function and survival under limited moisture availability. In this article, we present PSInet (PSI-for the Greek letter Ψ used to denote water potential), a novel collaborative network of researchers and data, designed to bridge the current critical information gap in water potential data. The primary objectives of PSInet are as follows. (i) Establishing the first openly accessible global database for time series of plant and soil water potential measurements, while providing important linkages with other relevant observation networks. (ii) Fostering an inclusive and diverse collaborative environment for all scientists studying water potential in various stages of their careers. (iii) Standardizing methodologies, processing and interpretation of water potential data through the engagement of a global community of scientists, facilitated by the dissemination of standardized protocols, best practices and early career training opportunities. (iv) Facilitating the use of the PSInet database for synthesizing knowledge and addressing prominent gaps in our understanding of plants' physiological responses to various environmental stressors. The PSInet initiative is integral to meeting the fundamental research challenge of discerning which plant species will thrive and which will be vulnerable in a world undergoing rapid warming and increasing aridification.

Incorporating photosynthetic acclimation improves stomatal optimisation models

Stomatal opening in plant leaves is regulated through a balance of carbon and water exchange under different environmental conditions. Accurate estimation of stomatal regulation is crucial for understanding how plants respond to changing environmental conditions, particularly under climate change. A new generation of optimality-based modelling schemes determines instantaneous stomatal responses from a balance of trade-offs between carbon gains and hydraulic costs, but most such schemes do not account for biochemical acclimation in response to drought. Here, we compare the performance of six instantaneous stomatal optimisation models with and without accounting for photosynthetic acclimation. Using experimental data from 37 plant species, we found that accounting for photosynthetic acclimation improves the prediction of carbon assimilation in a majority of the tested models. Photosynthetic acclimation contributed significantly to the reduction of photosynthesis under drought conditions in all tested models. Drought effects on photosynthesis could not accurately be explained by the hydraulic impairment functions embedded in the stomatal models alone, indicating that photosynthetic acclimation must be considered to improve estimates of carbon assimilation during drought.

Linking physiology, epidemiology, and demography: Understanding how lianas outcompete trees in a changing world

Extending and safeguarding tropical forest ecosystems is critical for combating climate change and biodiversity loss. One of its constituents, lianas, is spreading and increasing in abundance on a global scale. This is particularly concerning as lianas negatively impact forests' carbon fluxes, dynamics, and overall resilience, potentially exacerbating both crises. While possibly linked to climate-change-induced atmospheric CO2 elevation and drought intensification, the reasons behind their increasing abundance remain elusive. Prior research shows distinct physiological differences between lianas and trees, but it is unclear whether these differences confer a demographic advantage to lianas with climate change. Guided by extensive datasets collected in Panamanian tropical forests, we developed a tractable model integrating physiology, demography, and epidemiology. Our findings suggest that CO2 fertilization, a climate change factor promoting forest productivity, gives lianas a demographic advantage. Conversely, factors such as extreme drought generally cause a decrease in liana prevalence. Such a decline in liana prevalence is expected from a physiological point of view because lianas have drought-sensitive traits. However, our analysis underscores the importance of not exclusively relying on physiological processes, as interactions with demographic mechanisms (i.e., the forest structure) can contrast these expectations, causing an increase in lianas with drought. Similarly, our results emphasize that identical physiological responses between lianas and trees still lead to liana increase. Even if lianas exhibit collinear but weaker responses in their performance compared to trees, a temporary liana prevalence increase might manifest driven by the faster response time of lianas imposed by their distinct life-history strategies than trees.

Variation in xylem vulnerability to cavitation shapes the photosynthetic legacy of drought

Increased drought conditions impact tree health, negatively disrupting plant water transport which, in turn, affects plant growth and survival. Persistent drought legacy effects have been documented in many diverse ecosystems, yet we still lack a mechanistic understanding of the physiological processes limiting tree recovery after drought. Tackling this question, we exposed saplings of a common Australian evergreen tree (Eucalyptus viminalis) to a cycle of drought and rewatering, seeking evidence for a link between the spread of xylem cavitation within the crown and the degree of photosynthetic recovery postdrought. Individual leaves experiencing >35% vein cavitation quickly died but this did not translate to a rapid overall canopy damage. Rather, whole canopies showed a gradual decline in mean postdrought gas exchange rates as water stress increased. This gradual loss of canopy function postdrought was due to a significant variation in cavitation vulnerability of leaves within canopies leading to diversity in the capacity of leaves within a single crown to recover function after drought. These results from the evergreen E. viminalis emphasise the importance of within-crown variation in xylem vulnerability as a central character regulating the dynamics of canopy death and the severity of drought legacy through time.

When do plant hydraulics matter in terrestrial biosphere modelling?

The ascent of water from the soil to the leaves of vascular plants, described by the study of plant hydraulics, regulates ecosystem responses to environmental forcing and recovery from stress periods. Several approaches to model plant hydraulics have been proposed. In this study, we introduce four different versions of plant hydraulics representations in the terrestrial biosphere model T&C to understand the significance of plant hydraulics to ecosystem functioning. We tested representations of plant hydraulics, investigating plant water capacitance, and long-term xylem damages following drought. The four models we tested were a combination of representations including or neglecting capacitance and including or neglecting xylem damage legacies. Using the models at six case studies spanning semiarid to tropical ecosystems, we quantify how plant xylem flow, plant water storage and long-term xylem damage can modulate overall water and carbon dynamics across multiple time scales. We show that as drought develops, models with plant hydraulics predict a slower onset of plant water stress, and a diurnal variability of water and carbon fluxes closer to observations. Plant water storage was found to be particularly important for the diurnal dynamics of water and carbon fluxes, with models that include plant water capacitance yielding better results. Models including permanent damage to conducting plant tissues show an additional significant drought legacy effect, limiting plant productivity during the recovery phase following major droughts. However, when considering ecosystem responses to the observed climate variability, plant hydraulic modules alone cannot significantly improve the overall model performance, even though they reproduce more realistic water and carbon dynamics. This opens new avenues for model development, explicitly linking plant hydraulics with additional ecosystem processes, such as plant phenology and improved carbon allocation algorithms.

Accounting for trait variability and coordination in predictions of drought-induced range shifts in woody plants

Functional traits offer a promising avenue to improve predictions of species range shifts under climate change, which will entail warmer and often drier conditions. Although the conceptual foundation linking traits with plant performance and range shifts appears solid, the predictive ability of individual traits remains generally low. In this review, we address this apparent paradox, emphasizing examples of woody plants and traits associated with drought responses at the species' rear edge. Low predictive ability reflects the fact not only that range dynamics tend to be complex and multifactorial, as well as uncertainty in the identification of relevant traits and limited data availability, but also that trait effects are scale- and context-dependent. The latter results from the complex interactions among traits (e.g. compensatory effects) and between them and the environment (e.g. exposure), which ultimately determine persistence and colonization capacity. To confront this complexity, a more balanced coverage of the main functional dimensions involved (stress tolerance, resource use, regeneration and dispersal) is needed, and modelling approaches must be developed that explicitly account for: trait coordination in a hierarchical context; trait variability in space and time and its relationship with exposure; and the effect of biotic interactions in an ecological community context.

How woody plants adjust above- and below-ground traits in response to sustained drought

Future increases in drought severity and frequency are predicted to have substantial impacts on plant function and survival. However, there is considerable uncertainty concerning what drought adjustment is and whether plants can adjust to sustained drought. This review focuses on woody plants and synthesises the evidence for drought adjustment in a selection of key above-ground and below-ground plant traits. We assess whether evaluating the drought adjustment of single traits, or selections of traits that operate on the same plant functional axis (e.g. photosynthetic traits) is sufficient, or whether a multi-trait approach, integrating across multiple axes, is required. We conclude that studies on drought adjustments in woody plants might overestimate the capacity for adjustment to drier environments if spatial studies along gradients are used, without complementary experimental approaches. We provide evidence that drought adjustment is common in above-ground and below-ground traits; however, whether this is adaptive and sufficient to respond to future droughts remains uncertain for most species. To address this uncertainty, we must move towards studying trait integration within and across multiple axes of plant function (e.g. above-ground and below-ground) to gain a holistic view of drought adjustments at the whole-plant scale and how these influence plant survival.

The ecosystem wilting point defines drought response and recovery of a Quercus-Carya forest

Soil and atmospheric droughts increasingly threaten plant survival and productivity around the world. Yet, conceptual gaps constrain our ability to predict ecosystem-scale drought impacts under climate change. Here, we introduce the ecosystem wilting point (Ψ_EWP ), a property that integrates the drought response of an ecosystem's plant community across the soil-plant-atmosphere continuum. Specifically, Ψ_EWP defines a threshold below which the capacity of the root system to extract soil water and the ability of the leaves to maintain stomatal function are strongly diminished. We combined ecosystem flux and leaf water potential measurements to derive the Ψ_EWP of a Quercus-Carya forest from an "ecosystem pressure-volume (PV) curve," which is analogous to the tissue-level technique. When community predawn leaf water potential (Ψ_pd ) was above Ψ_EWP (=-2.0 MPa), the forest was highly responsive to environmental dynamics. When Ψ_pd fell below Ψ_EWP , the forest became insensitive to environmental variation and was a net source of carbon dioxide for nearly 2 months. Thus, Ψ_EWP is a threshold defining marked shifts in ecosystem functional state. Though there was rainfall-induced recovery of ecosystem gas exchange following soaking rains, a legacy of structural and physiological damage inhibited canopy photosynthetic capacity. Although over 16 growing seasons, only 10% of Ψ_pd observations fell below Ψ_EWP , the forest is commonly only 2-4 weeks of intense drought away from reaching Ψ_EWP , and thus highly reliant on frequent rainfall to replenish the soil water supply. We propose, based on a bottom-up analysis of root density profiles and soil moisture characteristic curves, that soil water acquisition capacity is the major determinant of Ψ_EWP , and species in an ecosystem require compatible leaf-level traits such as turgor loss point so that leaf wilting is coordinated with the inability to extract further water from the soil.