Domestic ducks play a major role in the maintenance and spread of H5N8 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses in South Korea

Pathogenicity of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza A/H5Nx Viruses in Avian and Murine Models

The evolution and adaptation of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses pose ongoing challenges for animal and public health. We investigated the pathogenic characteristics of the newly emerged H5N1/2022 and H5N8/2022 of clade 2.3.4.4b compared to the previously circulating H5N1/2016 of clade 2.2.1.2 in Egypt using both avian and murine models. All strains demonstrated a 100% mortality in chickens after intranasal inoculation (106 EID50), while the H5N8/2022 strain showing significantly higher viral shedding (8.34 ± 0.55 log10 EID50). Contact transmission rates varied between strains (50% for the 2.3.4.4b clade and 100% for the 2.2.1.2 clade). In the mouse model, H5N1/2016 infection resulted in an 80% mortality rate with significant weight loss and virus replication in organs. In contrast, H5N8/2022 and H5N1/2022 had 60% and 40% mortality rates, respectively. An histopathological analysis revealed pronounced lesions in the tissues of the infected mice, with the most severe lesions found in the H5N1/2016 group. These findings suggest the decreased pathogenicity of the newer H5Nx strains in mammalian models, emphasizing the need for continued surveillance and adaptive control strategies.

Phylodynamics of high pathogenicity avian influenza virus in Bangladesh identifying domestic ducks as the amplifying host reservoir

High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) virus H5N1 first emerged in Bangladesh in 2007. Despite the use of vaccines in chickens since 2012 to control HPAI, HPAI H5Nx viruses have continued to infect poultry, and wild birds, resulting in notable mass mortalities in house crows (Corvus splendens). The first HPAI H5Nx viruses in Bangladesh belonged to clade 2.2.2, followed by clade 2.3.4.2 and 2.3.2.1 viruses in 2011. After the implementation of chicken vaccination in 2012, these viruses were mostly replaced by clade 2.3.2.1a viruses and more recently clade 2.3.4.4b and h viruses. In this study, we reconstruct the phylogenetic history of HPAI H5Nx viruses in Bangladesh to evaluate the role of major host species in the maintenance and evolution of HPAI H5Nx virus in Bangladesh and reveal the role of heavily impacted crows in virus epidemiology. Epizootic waves caused by HPAI H5N1 and H5N6 viruses amongst house crows occurred annually in winter. Bayesian phylodynamic analysis of clade 2.3.2.1a revealed frequent bidirectional viral transitions between domestic ducks, chickens, and house crows that was markedly skewed towards ducks; domestic ducks might be the source, or reservoir, of HPAI H5Nx in Bangladesh, as the number of viral transitions from ducks to chickens and house crows was by far more numerous than the other transitions. Our results suggest viral circulation in domestic birds despite vaccination, with crow epizootics acting as a sentinel. The vaccination strategy needs to be updated to use more effective vaccinations, assess vaccine efficacy, and extension of vaccination to domestic ducks, the key reservoir.

Strong and consistent effects of waterbird composition on HPAI H5 occurrences across Europe

Since 2014, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 have been dominating the outbreaks across Europe, causing massive deaths among poultry and wild birds. However, the factors shaping these broad-scale outbreak patterns, especially those related to waterbird community composition, remain unclear. In particular, we do not know whether these risk factors differ from those of other H5 clades. Addressing this knowledge gap is important for predicting and preventing future HPAI outbreaks. Using extensive waterbird survey datasets from about 6883 sites, we here explored the effect of waterbird community composition on HPAI H5Nx (clade 2.3.4.4) spatial patterns in the 2016/2017 and 2020/2021 epidemics in Europe, and compared it with the 2005/2006 HPAI H5N1 (clade 2.2) epidemic. We showed that HPAI H5 occurrences in wild birds in the three epidemics were strongly associated with very similar waterbird community attributes, which suggested that, in nature, similar interspecific transmission processes operate between the HPAI H5 subtypes or clades. Importantly, community phylogenetic diversity consistently showed a negative association with H5 occurrence in all three epidemics, suggesting a dilution effect of phylogenetic diversity. In contrast, waterbird community variables showed much weaker associations with HPAI H5Nx occurrence in poultry. Our results demonstrate that models based on previous epidemics can predict future HPAI H5 patterns in wild birds, implying that it is important to include waterbird community factors in future HPAI studies to predict outbreaks and improve surveillance activities.

Viral shedding and environmental dispersion of two clade 2.3.4.4b H5 high pathogenicity avian influenza viruses in experimentally infected mule ducks: implications for environmental sampling

High pathogenicity avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) have caused major epizootics in recent years, with devastating consequences for poultry and wildlife worldwide. Domestic and wild ducks can be highly susceptible to HPAIVs, and infection leads to efficient viral replication and massive shedding (i.e., high titres for an extended time), contributing to widespread viral dissemination. Importantly, ducks are known to shed high amounts of virus in the earliest phase of infection, but the dynamics and impact of environmental contamination on the epidemiology of HPAIV outbreaks are poorly understood. In this study, we monitored mule ducks experimentally infected with two H5N8 clade 2.3.4.4b goose/Guangdong HPAIVs sampled in France in 2016-2017 and 2020-2021 epizootics. We investigated viral shedding dynamics in the oropharynx, cloaca, conjunctiva, and feathers; bird-to-bird viral transmission; and the role of the environment in viral spread and as a source of samples for early detection and surveillance. Our findings showed that viral shedding started before the onset of clinical signs, i.e., as early as 1 day post-inoculation (dpi) or post-contact exposure, peaked at 4 dpi, and lasted for up to 14 dpi. The detection of viral RNA in aerosols, dust, and water samples mirrored viral shedding dynamics, and viral isolation from these environmental samples was successful throughout the experiment. Our results confirm that mule ducks can shed high HPAIV titres through the four excretion routes tested (oropharyngeal, cloacal, conjunctival, and feather) while being asymptomatic and that environmental sampling could be a non-invasive tool for early viral RNA detection in HPAIV-infected farms.

Genomic epidemiology of highly pathogenic avian influenza A (H5N1) virus in wild birds in South Korea during 2021-2022: Changes in viral epidemic patterns

Clade 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic avian influenza A (HPAI) viruses have been detected in wild birds worldwide, causing recurrent outbreaks since 2016. During the winter of 2021-2022, we detected one H5N8 and forty-three H5N1 clade 2.3.4.4b HPAI viruses from wild birds in South Korea. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that HA gene of H5N1 viruses was divided into two genetically distinct groups (N1.G1 and N1.G2). Bayesian phylodynamic analysis demonstrated that wild birds play a vital role in viral transmission and long-term maintenance. We identified five genotypes (N1.G1.1, N1.G2, N1.G2.1, N1.G2.2, and N1.G2.2.1) having distinct gene segment constellations most probably produced by reassortments with low-pathogenic avian influenza viruses. Our results suggest that clade 2.3.4.4b persists in wild birds for a long time, causing continuous outbreaks, compared with previous clades of H5 HPAI viruses. Our study emphasizes the need for enhancing control measures in response to the changing viral epidemiology.

The application of biosecurity practices for preventing avian influenza in North-Eastern Italy turkey farms: An analysis of the point of view and perception of farmers

INTRODUCTION

Italian and international outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), particularly in densely populated poultry areas (DPPAs), have increased over the past few decades. These emerging risks, which endanger both human and animal health and the entire poultry industry, can be effectively limited by biosecurity measures implemented at human-animal food chain interfaces. Some problems, however, persist in the application of these measures on the part of poultry farmers, prompting the need to explore those aspects and causes that limit their implementation.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A qualitative approach was selected for the study and a semi-structured interview technique was applied to collect data among turkey farmers (n = 29) working in the north-east of Italy. The aim of this technique was to gather data on farms in order to understand the biosecurity practices adopted and the reasons for and impediments to farmer implementation, or lack thereof. This article presents and discusses the main data collected.

RESULTS

The study revealed that farmers were familiar with the biosecurity measures necessary to contain avian influenza (AI) and other poultry diseases; personal disinfection and animal isolation practices were particularly prominent. Based on the reported procedures, managerial, economic, and psychosocial factors were among the barriers behind the failure to implement biosecurity measures. These obstacles were variously intertwined and associated with the different action settings. In particular management factors, such as lack of time to apply the rules and difficulties contingent on the farm's structural characteristics, mediate the application of biosecurity measures. In terms of communication channels, the company, particularly its technicians, proved to be the primary source of information for farmers in case of emergencies, as well as the primary source of information on the application of biosecurity measures. However, other sources of information were indicated, such as word of mouth among farmers or other non-institutional figures (relatives and acquaintances).

CONCLUSIONS

What emerged, was the need to improve not only the biosecurity management skills, but also to implement forms of cooperation among the various key stakeholders in the poultry sector. The information presented in this pilot study needs to be discussed among competent authorities, public and company veterinarians, company technicians, and farmers. Furthermore, this information will help in participatory co-planning of risk prevention and communication strategies to implement a long-term, sustainable, effective approach to address future epidemic emergencies.

Pathogenicity of H5N8 avian influenza virus in chickens and in duck breeds and the role of MX1 and IFN-α in infection outcome and transmission to contact birds

This study examined the pathogenicity, immunogenicity, and transmission potential of the H5N8 HPAI clade 2.3.4.4b virus in three breeds of ducks and in broiler chickens. Chickens, Muscovy, Pekin, and Mallard ducks (n = 10) received a dose of 6 log10 EID50 of HPAIV H5N8 directly. Nine contact chickens were introduced to each group on the day of infection. All infected chickens died, with MDT of 7.6 days. Muscovy and Pekin ducks died by 11.1% and 10%, respectively, with MDTs of 7 and 6 days. No Mallards died but showed more severe clinical disease than Pekin ducks. Mallards had the highest MX1 gene expression in the lung and spleen and IFN-α in the spleen. MX1 expression levels were lower in the spleen and lung of Pekin ducks, in the spleen of chickens and in the lung of Muscovy ducks than in noninfected controls. However, viral shedding was higher in ducks than in chickens and was highest in Mallards. 66.7% of chickens placed in contact with infected chickens died and 77.8% of in-contact chickens to infected three duck breeds died. In conclusion, there was a diversity in sensitivity and immunogenicity for HPAIV H5N8 among duck breeds, resulting in diverse infection outcomes and transmissibility to contacts. This study provides duck/chicken interface models for HPAIV transmission to poultry.

Genetic Characterization and Pathogenesis of H5N1 High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus Isolated in South Korea during 2021-2022

High pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) viruses of clade 2.3.4.4 H5Nx have been circulating in poultry and wild birds worldwide since 2014. In South Korea, after the first clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 HPAI viruses were isolated from wild birds in October 2021, additional HPAIV outbreaks occurred in poultry farms until April 2022. In this study, we genetically characterized clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 HPAIV isolates in 2021-2022 and examined the pathogenicity and transmissibility of A/mandarin duck/Korea/WA585/2021 (H5N1) (WA585/21) in chickens and ducks. Clade 2.3.4.4b H5N1 HPAI viruses caused 47 outbreaks in poultry farms and were also detected in multiple wild birds. Phylogenetic analysis of HA and NA genes indicated that Korean H5N1 HPAI isolates were closely related to Eurasian viruses isolated in 2021-2022. Four distinct genotypes of H5N1 HPAI viruses were identified in poultry, and the majority were also found in wild birds. WA585/21 inoculated chickens showed virulent pathogenicity with high mortality and transmission. Meanwhile, ducks infected with the virus showed no mortality but exhibited high rates of transmission and longer viral shedding than chickens, suggesting that they may play an important role as silent carriers. In conclusion, consideration of both genetic and pathogenic traits of H5N1 HPAI viruses is required for effective viral control.

Chimeric H5 influenza virus-like particle vaccine elicits broader cross-clade antibody responses in chickens than in ducks

Eurasian-lineage highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5 viruses have spread throughout Asia, the Middle East, Europe, Africa, and most recently, North and South America. These viruses are independently evolving into genetically and antigenically divergent clades, and broad-spectrum vaccines protecting against these divergent clades are needed. In this study, we developed a chimeric virus-like particle (VLP) vaccine co-expressing hemagglutinins from two clades (clades 1 and 2.3.2.1) of HPAI H5 viruses and performed comparative cross-clade hemagglutination inhibition (HI) analysis in chickens and ducks. The chimeric VLP immunization induced a significantly broader spectrum of antibodies against various clades of HPAI H5 viruses than monovalent VLPs both in chickens and ducks. While the chimeric VLP led to broadened antibody responses in both species, significantly lower levels of HI antibodies were elicited in ducks than in chickens. Moreover, boost immunization failed to increase antibody responses in ducks regardless of the VLPs used, in contrast to chickens that showed significantly enhanced antibody responses upon boost immunization. These results suggest (1) the potential application of the chimeric VLP technology in poultry to help control HPAI H5 viruses by offering broader antibody responses against antigenically different strains and (2) possible obstacles in generating high levels of antibody responses against HPAI H5 viruses in ducks via vaccination, implying the need for advanced vaccination strategies for ducks.

Co-existence and co-infection of influenza A viruses and coronaviruses: Public health challenges

Since the 20th century, humans have lived through five pandemics caused by influenza A viruses (IAVs) (H1N1/1918, H2N2/1957, H3N2/1968, and H1N1/2009) and the coronavirus (CoV) severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). IAVs and CoVs both have broad host ranges and share multiple hosts. Virus co-circulation and even co-infections facilitate genetic reassortment among IAVs and recombination among CoVs, further altering virus evolution dynamics and generating novel variants with increased cross-species transmission risk. Moreover, SARS-CoV-2 may maintain long-term circulation in humans as seasonal IAVs. Co-existence and co-infection of both viruses in humans could alter disease transmission patterns and aggravate disease burden. Herein, we demonstrate how virus-host ecology correlates with the co-existence and co-infection of IAVs and/or CoVs, further affecting virus evolution and disease dynamics and burden, calling for active virus surveillance and countermeasures for future public health challenges.

Phylogenetic and Phylogeographic Analysis of the Highly Pathogenic H5N6 Avian Influenza Virus in China

The clade 2.3.4.4b H5N8 avian influenza viruses (AIVs) have caused the loss of more than 33 million domestic poultry worldwide since January 2020. Novel H5N6 reassortants with hemagglutinin (HA) from clade 2.3.4.4b H5N8 AIVs are responsible for multiple human infections in China. Therefore, we conducted an epidemiological survey on waterfowl farms in Sichuan and Guangxi provinces and performed a comprehensive spatiotemporal analysis of H5N6 AIVs in China. At the nucleotide level, the H5N6 AIVs isolated in the present study exhibited high homology with the H5N6 AIVs that caused human infections. Demographic history indicates that clade 2.3.4.4b seemingly replaced clade 2.3.4.4h to become China’s predominant H5N6 AIV clade. Based on genomic diversity, we classified clade 2.3.4.4b H5N6 AIV into ten genotypes (2.3.4.4bG1–G10), of which the 2.3.4.4bG5 and G10 AIVs can cause human infections. Phylogeographic results suggest that Hong Kong and Jiangxi acted as important epicentres for clades 2.3.4.4b and 2.3.4.4h, respectively. Taken together, our study provides critical insight into the evolution and spread of H5N6 AIVs in China, which indicates that the novel 2.3.4.4b reassortants pose challenges for public health and poultry.

Evolution, Transmission, and Pathogenicity of High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus A (H5N8) Clade 2.3.4.4, South Korea, 2014–2016

During 2014–2016, clade 2.3.4.4 H5N8 high pathogenicity avian influenza virus (HPAIV) caused the largest known avian influenza epidemic in South Korea. Based on data from earlier H5N8 outbreaks, primitive H5N8 virus in South Korea was classified into five subgroups: C1, C2, C3, C4, and C5. The present study investigated the pathogenic and molecular epidemiologic characteristics of H5N8 viruses obtained from 388 cases of poultry farms and 85 cases of wild bird infections in South Korea during 2014–2016. Representative viruses of subgroups C1, C2, and C4 showed significant pathobiological differences in specific pathogen-free (SPF) chickens, with the H1731 (C1) virus showing substantially lower infectivity, transmissibility, and pathogenicity than the H2102 (C2) and H1924 (C4) viruses. Full genome sequence analysis showed the number of mutations that significantly increased in domestic duck-origin H5N8 HPAIVs compared to the viruses from gallinaceous poultry. These differences may have been due to the long-term circulation of viruses in domestic duck farms. The same mutations, at positions 219 and 757 of PB1, independently evolving in the C0, C1, and C2 subgroups may have been positively selected, resulting in convergent evolution at the amino acid level. Bayesian discrete trait phylodynamic analysis (DTA) indicated multiple introductions of H5N8 HPAIV from wild birds into domestic poultry in various regions in South Korea. Following initial viral introduction into domestic duck farms in the western part of Korea, domestic ducks played a major role in viral transmission and maintenance. These findings highlight the need for continued genomic surveillance and pathobiological characterization of HPAIV in birds. Enhanced biosecurity in poultry farms should be implemented to prevent the introduction, maintenance, and spread of HPAIV.

Risk Prediction of Three Different Subtypes of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Outbreaks in Poultry Farms: Based on Spatial Characteristics of Infected Premises in South Korea

From 2003 to 2017, highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) epidemics, particularly H5N1, H5N8, and H5N6 infections in poultry farms, increased in South Korea. More recently, these subtypes of HPAI virus resurged and spread nationwide, heavily impacting the entire poultry production and supply system. Most outbreaks in poultry holdings were concentrated in the southwestern part of the country, accounting for 58.3% of the total occurrences. This geographically persistent occurrence demanded the investigation of spatial risk factors related to the HPAI outbreak and the prediction of the risk of emerging HPAI outbreaks. Therefore, we investigated 12 spatial variables for the three subtypes of HPAI virus-infected premises [(IPs), 88 H5N1, 339 H5N8, and 335 H5N6 IPs]. Then, two prediction models using statistical and machine learning algorithm approaches were built from a case-control study on HPAI H5N8 epidemic, the most prolonged outbreak, in 339 IPs and 626 non-IPs. Finally, we predicted the risk of HPAI H5N1 and H5N6 occurrence at poultry farms using a Bayesian logistic regression and machine learning algorithm model [extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) model] built on the case-control study. Several spatial variables showed similar distribution between two subtypes of IPs, although there were distinct heterogeneous distributions of spatial variables among the three IP subtypes. The case-control study indicated that the density of domestic duck farms and the minimum distance to live bird markets were leading risk factors for HPAI outbreaks. The two prediction models showed high predictive performance for H5N1 and H5N6 occurrences [an area under the curve (AUC) of receiver operating characteristic of Bayesian model > 0.82 and XGBoost model > 0.97]. This finding emphasizes that spatial characteristics of the poultry farm play a vital role in the occurrence and forecast of HPAI outbreaks. Therefore, this finding is expected to contributing to developing prevention and control strategies.

Interpolation of Point Prevalence Rate of the Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N8 Second Phase Epidemic in South Korea

Humans and animals are both susceptible to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses. In the future, HPAI has the potential to be a source of zoonoses and pandemic disease drivers. It is necessary to identify areas of high risk that are more vulnerable to HPAI infections. In this study, we applied unbiased predictions based on known information to find points of localities with a high probability of point prevalence rate. To carry out such predictions, we utilized the inverse distance weighting (IDW) and kriging method, with the help of the R statistical computing program. The provinces of Jeollanam-do, Gyeonggi-do, Chungcheongbuk-do and Ulsan have high anticipated risk. This research might aid in the management of avian influenza threats associated with various potential risks.

Spatial Variation in Risk for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N6 Viral Infections in South Korea: Poultry Population-Based Case–Control Study

Given the substantial economic damage caused by the continual circulation of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) outbreaks since 2003, identifying high-risk locations associated with HPAI infections is essential. In this study, using affected and unaffected poultry farms’ locations during an HPAI H5N6 epidemic in South Korea, we identified places where clusters of HPAI cases were found. Hotspots were defined as regions having clusters of HPAI cases. With the help of the statistical computer program R, a kernel density estimate and a spatial scan statistic were employed for this purpose. A kernel density estimate and detection of significant clusters through a spatial scan statistic both showed that districts in the Chungcheongbuk-do, Jeollabuk-do, and Jeollanam-do provinces are more vulnerable to HPAI outbreaks. Prior to the migration season, high-risk districts should implement particular biosecurity measures. High biosecurity measures, as well as improving the cleanliness of the poultry environment, would undoubtedly aid in the prevention of HPAIV transmission to poultry farms in these high-risk regions of South Korea.

Transmission Dynamics of Low Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (H2N2) Viruses in Live Bird Markets of the Northeast United States of America, 2013-2019

Live bird market (LBM) surveillance was conducted in the Northeast United States (US) to monitor for the presence of avian influenza viruses (AIV) in domestic poultry and market environments. A total of 384 H2N2 low pathogenicity AIV (LPAIV) isolated from active surveillance efforts in the LBM system of New York, Connecticut, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, and Maryland during 2013–2019 were included in this analysis. Comparative phylogenetic analysis showed that a wild-bird-origin H2N2 virus may have been introduced into the LBMs in Pennsylvania and independently evolved since March 2012 followed by spread to LBMs in New York City during late 2012–early 2013. LBMs in New York state played a key role in the maintenance and dissemination of the virus to LBMs in the Northeast US including reverse spread to Pennsylvania LBMs. The frequent detections in the domestic ducks and market environment with viral transmissions between birds and environment possibly led to viral adaptation and circulation in domestic gallinaceous poultry in LBMs, suggesting significant roles of domestic ducks and contaminated LBM environment as reservoirs in maintenance and dissemination of H2N2 LPAIV.

Preventive effect of on-farm biosecurity practices against highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N6 infection on commercial layer farms in the Republic of Korea during the 2016-17 epidemic: A case-control study

Highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv) H5N6 has destructive consequences on the global poultry production system. Recently, a growing number of layer farms have been heavily damaged from the HPAIv epidemic due to the increased virulence of the virus and the intensification of the production system. Therefore, stakeholders should implement effective preventive practices at the farm level that are aligned with contingency measures at the national level to minimize poultry losses. However, numerous biosecurity protocols for layer farm workers to follow have been developed, impeding efficient prevention and control. Furthermore, the effectiveness of biosecurity practices varies with the geographical condition and inter-farm contact structures. Hence, the objective of our study was to examine the preventive effect of five biosecurity actions commonly practiced at layer farms in the Republic of Korea against HPAIv H5N6: (i) fence installation around a farm, ii) rodent control inside a farm; iii) disinfection booth for visitors for disinfection protocols, iv) an anterior room in the sheds before entering the bird area and v) boots changes when moving between sheds in the same farm. We conducted a case-control study on 114 layer case farms and 129 layer control farms during the 2016-17 HPAI epidemic. The odds ratios for five on-farm biosecurity practices implemented in those study groups were estimated as a preventive effect on the HPAI infection with covariates, including seven geographical conditions and three network metrics using Bayesian hierarchical logistic regression and geographical location weighted logistic regression. The results showed that the use of a disinfection booth for personnel reduced the odds of HPAIv H5N6 infection (adjusted odds ratio [AOR] = 0.002, 95 % credible interval [CrI] = 0.00007 - 0.025) with relatively small spatial variation (minimum AOR - maximum AOR: 0.084-0.263). Changing boots between sheds on the same farm reduced the odds of HPAIv H5N6 infection (AOR = 0.160, 95 % CrI = 0.024-0.852) with relatively wide spatial variation (minimum AOR - maximum AOR = 0.270-0.688). Therefore, enhanced personnel biosecurity protocols at the farm of entry for layer farms is recommended to effectively prevent and respond to HPAIv H5N6 infection under different local condition. Our study provides an important message for layer farmers to effectively implement on-farm biosecurity actions against HPAIv H5N6 infection at their farms by setting priorities based on their spatial condition and network position.

Spatiotemporal risk assessment for avian influenza outbreak based on the dynamics of habitat suitability for wild birds

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) has predominantly damaged the poultry industry worldwide. The fundamental prevention and control strategy for HPAI includes early detection and timely intervention enforcement through a systematic surveillance system for wild birds based on the ecological understanding of the dynamics of wild birds' movements. Our study aimed to develop a spatiotemporal risk assessment model for avian influenza (AI) infection in wild birds to empower surveillance information for a contingency strategy. For this purpose, first, we predicted the monthly habitat suitability of seven waterfowl species, using 227,671 Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking records of 562 birds from 2014 to 2018 in the Republic of Korea (ROK). Then, that predicted habitat suitability and 421 coordinates of AI detection sites in wild birds were used to build the risk assessment model. Subsequently, we compared the monthly predicted risk of avian influenza virus (AIv) identification in wild birds between case and non-case poultry farms with HPAI H5N6 outbreak in the ROK between 2016 and 2017. The results reported considerable variation of monthly habitat suitability of seven waterfowls and the impact of predicting AI occurrences in wild birds. The high habitat suitability for spot-billed ducks (contribution rate in November = 40.9%) and mallards (contribution rate in January = 34.3%) significantly contributed to predicting the average risk of AIv identification in wild birds, with high predictive performance [the monthly mean of area under the curve (AUC) = 0.978]. Moreover, our model showed that the averaged risk of identification AI in wild birds was significantly higher in HPAI infected premises, with infected domestic duck holdings exhibiting a significantly higher risk than the chicken farms in November. This study suggests that animal health authority establishes a risk-based HPAI surveillance system grounded on the ecological nature of wild birds to improve the effectiveness of prevention and preparedness of emerging epidemics.

Pathogenicity of H5N8 High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza Virus in Chickens and Ducks from South Korea in 2020-2021

During the 2020–2021 winter season, an outbreak of clade 2.3.4.4b H5N8 high pathogenicity avian influenza (HPAI) virus occurred in South Korea. Here, we evaluated the pathogenicity and transmissibility of A/mandarin duck/Korea/H242/2020 (H5N8) (H242/20(H5N8)) first isolated from this outbreak in specific pathogen-free (SPF) chickens and commercial ducks in comparison with those of A/duck/Korea/HD1/2017(H5N6) (HD1/17(H5N6)) from a previous HPAI outbreak in 2017–2018. In chickens, the 50% chicken lethal dose and mean death time of H242/20(H5N8) group were 10^4.5 EID₅₀ and 4.3 days, respectively, which indicate less virulent than those of HD1/17(H5N6) (10^3.6 EID₅₀ and 2.2 days). Whereas, chickens inoculated with H242/20(H5N8) survived longer and had a higher titer of viral shedding than those inoculated with HD1/17(H5N6), which may increase the risk of viral contamination on farms. All ducks infected with either HPAI virus survived without clinical symptoms. In addition, they exhibited a longer virus shedding period and a higher transmission rate, indicating that ducks may play an important role as a silent carrier of both HPAI viruses. These results suggest that the pathogenic characteristics of HPAI viruses in chickens and ducks need to be considered to effectively control HPAI outbreaks in the field.

Pathological analysis and genetic characterization of the first outbreak H5N8 subtype avian influenza virus isolated from wild swan in Shandong, China

In January 2021, an outbreak of H5N8 subtype avian influenza was identified from wild mute swans (Cygnus olor) in an overwintering site located within Yellow River Delta Nature Reserve in Shandong, China, for the first time. We sequenced the hemagglutinin (HA) and neuraminidase (NA) genome segments of the virus, named A/mute swan/Shandong/1/2021 (H5N8), and explored the genetic characterization and comparative phylogenetic analysis to track its origin. The wild swans prior to death showed nervous signs accompanied by a twisted neck. The major pathological changes of the heart, lung, trachea, kidney, spleen, and glandular stomach were hemorrhage, and extensive necrotic lesions in the liver and pancreas were also observed. Further analysis of the HA and NA phylogenetic trees generated by H5N8 strains isolated worldwide revealed that the isolate has a close genetic relationship with the H5N8 subtype avian influenza virus (AIV) recently isolated in Korea and Japan from 2020 to 2021, suggesting the potential role of mute swans in the global dissemination of the H5N8 subtype AIVs along the migration routes. Therefore, enhanced active surveillance in wild and domestic birds is required to monitor the introduction and spread of the H5N8 subtype AIV by migratory birds in order to decrease the risk of H5N8 outbreaks.

Elucidating the Local Transmission Dynamics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5N6 in the Republic of Korea by Integrating Phylogenetic Information

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus is one of the most virulent and infectious pathogens of poultry. As a response to HPAI epidemics, veterinary authorities implement preemptive depopulation as a controlling strategy. However, mass culling within a uniform radius of the infection site can result in unnecessary depopulation. Therefore, it is useful to quantify the transmission distance from infected premises (IPs) before determining the optimal area for preemptive depopulation. Accordingly, we analyzed the transmission risk within spatiotemporal clusters of IPs using transmission kernel estimates derived from phylogenetic clustering information on 311 HPAI H5N6 IPs identified during the 2016–2017 epidemic, Republic of Korea. Subsequently, we explored the impact of varying the culling radius on the local transmission of HPAI given the transmission risk estimates. The domestic duck farm density was positively associated with higher transmissibility. Ring culling over a radius of 3 km may be effective for areas with high dense duck holdings, but this approach does not appear to significantly reduce the risk for local transmission in areas with chicken farms. This study provides the first estimation of the local transmission dynamics of HPAI in the Republic of Korea as well as insight into determining an effective ring culling radius.

Evolutionary history of H5 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (clade 2.3.4.4c) circulating in Taiwan during 2015-2018

The highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) virus A/goose/Guangdong/1/96 H5N1 (Gs/GD) lineage has been transmitted globally and has caused deaths in wild birds, poultry, and humans. Clade 2.3.4.4c, one of the subclades of the Gs/GD lineage, spread through Taiwan in late 2014 and become an endemic virus. We analyzed 239 newly sequenced HPAI clade H5Nx isolates to explore the phylogenetic relationships, divergence times, and evolutionary history of Taiwan HPAI H5Nx viruses from 2015 to 2018. Overall, 15 reassortant genotypes were identified among H5N2, H5N3, and H5N8 viruses. Maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylogenies based on homologous hemagglutinin (HA) and matrix protein (MP) genes suggest that Taiwan HPAI H5Nx viruses share a most recent common ancestor that has diversified since October 2014 and is closely related to two HPAI H5N8 viruses identified from wild birds in Japan. Two waves of HPAI caused by multiple reassortants were identified, the first occurring in late 2014 and the second beginning in late 2016. The first wave consisted of seven H5Nx reassortants that spread through Taiwan. In the second wave, eight novel reassortants were detected which had newly introduced internal genes, mostly derived from the avian influenza virus gene pool maintained in wild birds in Asia. Phylodynamic reconstruction using the Bayesian Skygrid model revealed varied fluctuating patterns of relative genetic diversity among reassortants. The mean evolutionary rate also varied among reassortants and subtypes. The neuraminidase (NA) gene evolved faster than the HA gene in H5N2 viruses, while HA evolved faster than NA in H5N8 viruses. The HA mean evolutionary rate ranged from 6.10 × 10^-3 to 7.73 × 10^-3 and from 5.81 × 10^-3 to 9.45 × 10^-3 substitutions/site/year for H5N2 and H5N8 viruses, respectively. The continuous circulation of HPAI H5Nx variants and the emergence of novel reassortants in Taiwan highlight that the surveillance, biosecurity, and management systems of poultry farms need to be improved and carefully executed.

Multiple Reassortants of H5N8 Clade 2.3.4.4b Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Viruses Detected in South Korea during the Winter of 2020-2021

During October 2020–January 2021, we isolated a total of 67 highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) H5N8 viruses from wild birds and outbreaks in poultry in South Korea. We sequenced the isolates and performed phylogenetic analysis of complete genome sequences to determine the origin, evolution, and spread patterns of these viruses. Phylogenetic analysis of the hemagglutinin (HA) gene showed that all the isolates belong to H5 clade 2.3.4.4 subgroup B (2.3.4.4b) and form two distinct genetic clusters, G1 and G2. The cluster G1 was closely related to the 2.3.4.4b H5N8 HPAI viruses detected in Europe in early 2020, while the cluster G2 had a close genetic relationship with the 2.3.4.4b H5N8 viruses that circulated in Europe in late 2020. A total of seven distinct genotypes were identified, including five novel reassortants carrying internal genes of low pathogenic avian influenza viruses. Our Bayesian discrete trait phylodynamic analysis between host types suggests that the viruses initially disseminated from migratory waterfowl to domestic duck farms in South Korea. Subsequently, domestic duck farms most likely contributed to the transmission of HPAI viruses to chicken and minor poultry farms, highlighting the need for enhanced, high levels of biosecurity measures at domestic duck farms to effectively prevent the introduction and spread of HPAI.

Spatiotemporal Dynamics of Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza Subtype H5N8 in Poultry Farms, South Korea

Highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI), a zoonotic disease, is a major threat to humans and poultry health worldwide. In January 2014, HPAI virus subtype H5N8 first infected poultry farms in South Korea, and 393 outbreaks, overall, were reported with enormous economic damage in the poultry industry. We analyzed the spatiotemporal distribution of HPAI H5N8 outbreaks in poultry farms using the global and local spatiotemporal interaction analyses in the first (January to July 2014) and second (September 2014 to June 2015) outbreak waves. The space–time K-function analyses revealed significant interactions within three days and in an over-40 km space–time window between the two study periods. The excess risk attributable value (D₀) was maintained despite the distance in the case of HPAI H5N8 in South Korea. Eleven spatiotemporal clusters were identified, and the results showed that the HPAI introduction was from the southwestern region, and spread to the middle region, in South Korea. This spatiotemporal interaction indicates that the HPAI epidemic in South Korea was mostly characterized by short period transmission, regardless of the distance. This finding supports strict control strategies such as preemptive depopulation, and poultry movement tracking. Further studies are needed to understand HPAI disease transmission patterns.

Fine-scale tracking of wild waterfowl and their impact on highly pathogenic avian influenza outbreaks in the Republic of Korea, 2014-2015

Wild migratory waterfowl are considered one of the most important reservoirs and long-distance carriers of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). Our study aimed to explore the spatial and temporal characteristics of wild migratory waterfowl’s wintering habitat in the Republic of Korea (ROK) and to evaluate the impact of these habitats on the risk of HPAI outbreaks in commercial poultry farms. The habitat use of 344 wild migratory waterfowl over four migration cycles was estimated based on tracking records. The association of habitat use with HPAI H5N8 outbreaks in poultry farms was evaluated using a multilevel logistic regression model. We found that a poultry farm within a wild waterfowl habitat had a 3–8 times higher risk of HPAI outbreak than poultry farms located outside of the habitat. The range of wild waterfowl habitats increased during autumn migration, and was associated with the epidemic peak of HPAI outbreaks on domestic poultry farms in the ROK. Our findings provide a better understanding of the dynamics of HPAI infection in the wildlife–domestic poultry interface and may help to establish early detection, and cost-effective preventive measures.

Wild birds as reservoirs for diverse and abundant gamma- and deltacoronaviruses

Wild birds interconnect all parts of the globe through annual cycles of migration with little respect for country or continental borders. Although wild birds are reservoir hosts for a high diversity of gamma- and deltacoronaviruses, we have little understanding of the ecology or evolution of any of these viruses. In this review, we use genome sequence and ecological data to disentangle the evolution of coronaviruses in wild birds. Specifically, we explore host range at the levels of viral genus and species, and reveal the multi-host nature of many viral species, albeit with biases to certain types of avian host. We conclude that it is currently challenging to infer viral ecology due to major sampling and technical limitations, and suggest that improved assay performance across the breadth of gamma- and deltacoronaviruses, assay standardization, as well as better sequencing approaches, will improve both the repeatability and interpretation of results. Finally, we discuss cross-species virus transmission across both the wild bird - poultry interface as well as from birds to mammals. Clarifying the ecology and diversity in the wild bird reservoir has important ramifications for our ability to respond to the likely future emergence of coronaviruses in socioeconomically important animal species or human populations.

Phylodynamic analyses of class I Newcastle disease virus isolated in China

Newcastle disease virus (NDV), the pathogen of Newcastle disease, has caused significant losses to the poultry industry worldwide. However, owing to its avirulence, class I NDVs have not been studied as much as class II NDVs. We aimed to epidemiologically monitor the spread of class I NDVs in China. We isolated 104 class I NDV strains from poultry in live poultry markets (LPMs) of Guangdong Province, south China, between January 2016 and December 2018. Genetic analysis revealed that all 104 isolates and most of the strains isolated from China were clustered into genotype 1.1.2 of class I NDVs. Bayesian analysis revealed that, although the United States may be the source, east and south China may be the epicentres of class I NDVs in China. In addition, in China, class I NDVs are presumably transmitted by chickens and domestic ducks as the virus is mostly prevalent in these birds. These novel findings demonstrated that class I NDVs are prevalent in south China, and it is important to perform routine surveillance and limit the numbers of different birds in different areas of LPMs to decrease the risk of intra- and interspecies transmission of NDVs.

Genetic characteristics and pathogenesis of H5 low pathogenic avian influenza viruses from wild birds and domestic ducks in South Korea

H5 and H7 subtypes of low pathogenic avian influenza viruses (LPAIVs) can mutate to highly pathogenic forms and are therefore subject to stringent controls. We characterized H5 LPAIVs isolated from wild-bird habitats and duck farms in South Korea from 2010 to 2017. Through nationwide active surveillance for AIVs, 59 H5 LPAIVs were isolated from wild-bird habitats (a mean annual rate of 5.3% of AIV isolations). In 2015, one LPAI H5N3 strain was isolated on a duck farm. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that the hemagglutinin (HA) gene of H5 isolates belonged to the Eurasian lineage, classified into three subgroups (HA-II, HA-III, and HA-IV). The H5 LPAIVs of the HA-III and HA-IV subgroups appeared in 2015 and 2017 in unusually high proportions (13.1% and 14.4%, respectively). In gene-constellation analysis, H5 LPAIVs isolated from 2015 to 2017 constituted ≥ 35 distinct genotypes, representing high levels of genetic diversity. Representative strains of three HA subgroups replicated restrictively in specific-pathogen-free chickens. Among the 11 isolates that were tested, 10 infected and replicated in mice without prior adaptation. The frequency of recent H5 LPAIV isolates with high genetic diversity indicates the importance of continued surveillance in both wild birds and poultry to monitor genetic and pathobiological changes.

Genetic evolution and transmission dynamics of clade 2.3.2.1a highly pathogenic avian influenza A/H5N1 viruses in Bangladesh

Asian lineage A/H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza viruses (HPAIVs) have been responsible for continuous outbreaks in Bangladesh since 2007. Although clades 2.2.2 and 2.3.4.2 HPAIVs have disappeared since poultry vaccination was introduced in 2012, clade 2.3.2.1a viruses have continued to be detected in Bangladesh. In this study, we identified A/H9N2 (n = 15), A/H5N1 (n = 19), and A/H5N1-A/H9N2 (n = 18) mixed viruses from live bird markets, chicken farms, and wild house crows (Corvus splendens) in Bangladesh from 2016 to 2018. We analyzed the genetic sequences of the H5 HPAIVs, to better understand the evolutionary history of clade 2.3.2.1a viruses in Bangladesh. Although seven HA genetic subgroups (B1-B7) and six genotypes (G1, G1.1, G1.2, G2, G2.1, and G2.2) have been identified in Bangladesh, only subgroup B7 and genotypes G2, G2.1, and G2.2 were detected after 2016. The replacement of G1 genotype by G2 in Bangladesh was possibly due to vaccination and viral competition in duck populations. Initially, genetic diversity decreased after introduction of vaccination in 2012, but in 2015, genetic diversity increased and was associated with the emergence of genotype G2. Our phylodynamic analysis suggests that domestic Anseriformes, including ducks and geese, may have played a major role in persistence, spread, evolution, and genotype replacement of clade 2.3.2.1a HPAIVs in Bangladesh. Thus, improvements in biosecurity and monitoring of domestic Anseriformes are needed for more effective control of HPAI in Bangladesh.