Lung allocation score: the Eurotransplant model versus the revised US model - a cross-sectional study

Analysis of the most influential factors affecting outcomes of lung transplant recipients: a multivariate prediction model based on UNOS Data

OBJECTIVES

In lung transplantation (LTx), a priority is assigned to each candidate on the waiting list. Our primary objective was to identify the key factors that influence the allocation of priorities in LTx using machine learning (ML) techniques to enhance the process of prioritising patients.

DESIGN

Developing a prediction model.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Our data were retrieved from the United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS) open-source database of transplant patients between 2005 and 2023.

INTERVENTIONS

After the preprocessing process, a feature engineering technique was employed to select the most relevant features. Then, six ML models with optimised hyperparameters including multiple linear regression, random forest regressor (RF), support vector machine regressor, XGBoost regressor, a multilayer perceptron model and a deep learning model were developed based on the UNOS dataset.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The performance of each model was evaluated using R-squared (R2) and other error rate metrics. Next, the Shapley Additive Explanations (SHAP) technique was used to identify the most important features in the prediction.

RESULTS

The raw dataset contains 196 270 records with 545 features in all organs. After preprocessing, 32 966 records with 15 features remain. Among various models, the RF model achieved a high R2 score. Additionally, the RF model exhibited the lowest error values, indicating its superior precision compared with other regression models. The SHAP technique in conjunction with the RF model revealed the 11 most important features for priority allocation. Subsequently, we developed a web-based decision support tool using Python and the Streamlit framework based on the best-fine-tuned model.

CONCLUSION

The deployment of the ML model has the potential to act as an automated tool to aid physicians in assessing the priority of lung transplants and identifying significant factors that play a role in patient survival.

Development of a Machine Learning-Powered Optimized Lung Allocation System for Maximum Benefits in Lung Transplantation: A Korean National Data

BACKGROUND

An ideal lung allocation system should reduce waiting list deaths, improve transplant survival, and ensure equitable organ allocation. This study aimed to develop a novel lung allocation score (LAS) system, the MaxBenefit LAS, to maximize transplant benefits.

METHODS

This study retrospectively analyzed data from the Korean Network for Organ Sharing database, including 1,599 lung transplant candidates between September 2009 and December 2020. We developed the MaxBenefit LAS, combining a waitlist mortality model and a post-transplant survival model using elastic-net Cox regression, was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) values and Uno's C-index. Its performance was compared to the US LAS in an independent cohort.

RESULTS

The waitlist mortality model showed strong predictive performance with AUC values of 0.834 and 0.818 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The post-transplant survival model also demonstrated good predictive ability (AUC: 0.708 and 0.685). The MaxBenefit LAS effectively stratified patients by risk, with higher scores correlating with increased waitlist mortality and decreased post-transplant mortality. The MaxBenefit LAS outperformed the conventional LAS in predicting waitlist death and identifying candidates with higher transplant benefits.

CONCLUSION

The MaxBenefit LAS offers a promising approach to optimizing lung allocation by balancing the urgency of candidates with their likelihood of survival post-transplant. This novel system has the potential to improve outcomes for lung transplant recipients and reduce waitlist mortality, providing a more equitable allocation of donor lungs.

Evaluation of the Current Urgency-Based Lung Allocation System in Korea with Simulation of the Eurotransplant Lung Allocation Score

PURPOSE

Due to the shortage of lung donors relative to the number of patients waiting for lung transplantation (LTx), more than one-third of patients on the waitlist have died without receiving LTx in Korea. Therefore, the importance of fair and effective allocation policies has been emphasized. This study investigated the characteristics of the current urgency-based allocation system in Korea by simulating the Eurotransplant lung allocation score (ET-LAS) using a nationwide multi-institutional registry for LTx in Korea.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

This study used data from the Korean Organ Transplantation Registry (KOTRY), along with additional retrospective data for ET-LAS calculation. A total of 194 patients were included in this study between January 2015 and December 2019. The Korean urgency definition classifies an LTx candidate as having statuses 0-3 according to urgency. The ET-LAS was analyzed according to the Korean urgency status.

RESULTS

In total, 92 patients received lung transplants at status 0, 85 at status 1, and 17 at status 2/3. The ET-LAS showed a bimodal distribution with distinct peaks corresponding to status 0 and non-status 0. There was no significant difference in the ET-LAS among non-status 0 patients. In logistic and decision tree analyses, oxygen supplementation methods, particularly oxygen masks and high-flow nasal cannulas, were significantly associated with a high ET-LAS (≥50) among non-status 0 patients.

CONCLUSION

Simulation of the ET-LAS with KOTRY data showed that the Korean urgency definition may not allocate lungs by urgency, especially for patients in non-status 0; therefore, it needs to be revised.

Biohybrid lung Development: Towards Complete Endothelialization of an Assembled Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenator

Towards the establishment of a long-term lung-assist device to be used both as a bridge and as an alternative to lung transplantation according to final destination therapy, we develop the biohybrid lung (BHL) on the technical basis of contemporary extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO). Here, to overcome the significant drawbacks of ECMO, in particular the missing hemocompatibility of the artificial surfaces, all blood-contacting areas need to be endothelialized sufficiently. In continuation of our recent accomplishments, demonstrating the feasibility of establishing a physiological acting endothelial cell (EC) monolayer on the hollow fiber membranes (HFMs) of the ECMO in vitro, the next step towards BHL translation is the endothelialization of the complete oxygenator, consisting of HFMs and the surrounding housing. Therefore, we assessed EC seeding inside our model oxygenator (MOx), which simulated the conditions in the assembled HFM oxygenators in order to identify the most important factors influencing efficient endothelialization, such as cell seeding density, cell distribution, incubation time and culture medium consumption. Overall, upon adjusting the concentration of infused ECs to 15.2 × 10⁴/cm² and ensuring optimal dispersion of cells in the MOx, viable and confluent EC monolayers formed on all relevant surfaces within 24 h, even though they comprised different polymers, i.e., the fibronectin-coated HFMs and the polysulfone MOx housing. Periodic medium change ensured monolayer survival and negligible apoptosis rates comparable to the reference within the assembled system. By means of these results, revealing essential implications for BHL development, their clinical translation is coming one step closer to reality.

A comparison of outcomes after lung transplantation between European and North American centers

BACKGROUND

With advancements in basic science and clinical medicine, lung transplantation (LT) has evolved rapidly over the last three decades. However, it is unclear if significant regional variations exist in long-term outcomes after LT.

METHODS

To investigate potential differences, we performed a retrospective, comparative cohort analysis of adult patients undergoing deceased donor single or double LT in North America (NA) or Europe between January 2006 and December 2016. Data up to April 2019 were abstracted from the International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation (ISHLT) Thoracic Organ Registry. We compared overall survival (OS) between North American and European LT centers in a propensity score matched analysis.

RESULTS

In 3,115 well-matched pairs, though 30-day survival was similar between groups (NA 96.2% vs Europe 95.4%, p = 0.116), 5-year survival was significantly higher in European patients (NA 60.1% vs Europe 70.3%, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSIONS

This survival difference persisted in a sensitivity analysis excluding Canadian patients. Prior observations suggest that these disparities are at least partly related to better access to care via universal healthcare models prevalent in Europe. Future studies are warranted to confirm our findings and explore other causal mechanisms. It is likely that potential solutions will require concerted efforts from healthcare providers and policymakers.

Emerging Paradigms in Bioengineering the Lungs

In end-stage lung diseases, the shortage of donor lungs for transplantation and long waiting lists are the main culprits in the significantly increasing number of patient deaths. New strategies to curb this issue are being developed with the help of recent advancements in bioengineering technology, with the generation of lung scaffolds as a steppingstone. There are various types of lung scaffolds, namely, acellular scaffolds that are developed via decellularization and recellularization techniques, artificial scaffolds that are synthesized using synthetic, biodegradable, and low immunogenic materials, and hybrid scaffolds which combine the advantageous properties of materials in the development of a desirable lung scaffold. There have also been advances in the design of bioreactors in terms of providing an optimal regenerative environment for the maturation of functional lung tissue over time. In this review, the emerging paradigms in the field of lung tissue bioengineering will be discussed.

Cystic fibrosis in children: A pediatric anesthesiologist's perspective

Cystic fibrosis is a multi-systemic disease of impaired sodium and chloride transport across epithelial surfaces. Cystic fibrosis is one of the most common autosomal recessive diseases among Caucasian children. However, recent epidemiologic studies suggest that the disease in Hispanic, African American, and Asian American populations may be more common than previously recognized. The phenotypic expression is characterized by the constellation of pulmonary, pancreatic, hepatobiliary, and gastrointestinal dysfunction. Progressive obstructive lung disease is the hallmark of cystic fibrosis, and end-stage respiratory failure is the primary cause of morbidity and mortality. The most significant advance in the care has been the development of cystic fibrosis modulators, a class of drugs that restore cystic fibrosis transmembrane conductance regulator folding, intracellular processing, or function. Improved diagnostic abilities, a multidisciplinary approach to medical management, and the use of cystic fibrosis modulators have led to improvement in the quality of life and life expectancy. These patients undergo range of procedures such as nasal polypectomy, placement of gastrostomy tubes, vascular access device placement, transbronchial lung biopsies, and other thoracic surgeries. The anesthetic care of children with advanced cystic fibrosis disease is complex. Preoperative optimization can help improve postoperative outcomes. Strategies for pain control should rely on non-opiate, multimodal adjuncts, and regional or neuraxial techniques. Unfortunately for some children, a progressive respiratory disease often leads to end-stage respiratory failure and lung transplant surgery remains the only viable treatment option. Widespread use of lung transplant surgery as a treatment option is severely constraint by donor organ availability. Primary graft dysfunction is the most common cause of early death and can be seen within 48 h of surgery. Median long-term survival after lung transplant remains modest. Chronic lung allograft dysfunction, opportunistic infections, and post-transplant lymphoproliferative disorder are the most common causes of morbidity and mortality among long-term survivors.

Spirometry testing for extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) bridge to transplant patients

PURPOSE

ECMO can provide a bridge to transplantation and improve survival for patients with advanced lung disease. Although pulmonary function testing (PFT) is an important component of the lung allocation score (LAS), it is not always feasible on patients requiring ECMO. While generally safe, PFT testing has contraindications and is not recommended in unstable patients. Currently there are no recommendations regarding the performance of spirometry in ECMO patients.

STUDY DESIGN

and Methods: We reviewed data on five patients with advanced lung disease requiring ECMO-bridge to transplant. After careful consideration of the theoretical physiologic risks associated with forced expiratory maneuvers, bedside spirometry was performed in order to update the patients' LAS.

RESULTS

All patients successfully completed three forced expiratory maneuvers in the seated position with a bedside spirometer. Vital signs and ECMO flow were stable during testing and without complication. In 2 patients who had both a LAS pre and post spirometry, the LAS increased by 3-5 points.

CONCLUSION

Spirometry results are pivotal to organ allocation under current organ sharing protocols. This case series demonstrates that bedside spirometry testing may be performed safely in patients on ECMO awaiting lung transplantation without appreciable side effects, leading to a more accurate LAS score.

Lung transplantation for acute respiratory distress syndrome: A multicenter experience

Acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) is a rapidly progressive lung disease with a high mortality rate. Although lung transplantation (LTx) is a well-established treatment for a variety of chronic pulmonary diseases, LTx for acute lung failure (due to ARDS) remains controversial. We reviewed posttransplant outcome of ARDS patients from three high-volume European transplant centers. Demographics and clinical data were collected and analyzed. Viral infection was the main reason for ARDS (n = 7/13, 53.8%). All patients were admitted to ICU and required mechanical ventilation, 11/13 were supported with ECMO at the time of listing. They were granted a median LAS of 76 (IQR 50-85) and waited for a median of 3 days (IQR 1.5-14). Postoperatively, median length of mechanical ventilation was 33 days (IQR 17-52.5), median length of ICU and hospital stay were 39 days (IQR 19.5-58.5) and 54 days (IQR 43.5-127). Prolongation of peripheral postoperative ECMO was required in 7/13 (53.8%) patients with a median duration of 2 days (IQR 2-7). 30-day mortality was 7.7%, 1 and 5-year survival rates were calculated as 71.6% and 54.2%, respectively. Given the lack of alternative treatment options, the herein presented results support the concept of offering live-saving LTx to carefully selected ARDS patients.

Waiting List Dynamics and Lung Transplantation Outcomes After Introduction of the Lung Allocation Score in The Netherlands

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

The Netherlands was the third country to adopt the lung allocation score (LAS) for national allocation of donor lungs in April 2014. Evaluations of the introduction of the LAS in the United States and Germany showed mainly beneficial effects, including increased survival after transplantation.

The Lung Allocation Score and Its Relevance

Lung transplantation in the United States, under oversight by the Organ Procurement Transplantation Network (OPTN) in the 1990s, operated under a system of allocation based on location within geographic donor service areas, wait time of potential recipients, and ABO compatibility. On May 4, 2005, the lung allocation score (LAS) was implemented by the OPTN Thoracic Organ Transplantation Committee to prioritize patients on the wait list based on a balance of wait list mortality and posttransplant survival, thus eliminating time on the wait list as a factor of prioritization. Patients were categorized into four main disease categories labeled group A (obstructive lung disease), B (pulmonary hypertension), C (cystic fibrosis), and D (restrictive lung disease/interstitial lung disease) with variables within each group impacting the calculation of the LAS. Implementation of the LAS led to a decrease in the number of wait list deaths without an increase in 1-year posttransplant survival. LAS adjustments through the addition, modification or elimination of covariates to improve the estimates of patient severity of illness, have since been made in addition to establishing criteria for LAS value exceptions for pulmonary hypertension patients. Despite the success of the LAS, concerns about the prioritization, and transplantation of older, sicker individuals have made some aspects of the LAS controversial. Future changes in US lung allocation are anticipated with the current development of a continuous distribution model that incorporates the LAS, geographic distribution, and unaccounted aspects of organ allocation into an integrated score.

Performance Changes Following the Revision of Organ Allocation System of Lung Transplant: Analysis of Korean Network for Organ Sharing Data

BACKGROUND

There is currently a lack of data on the impact of the recent revision of the domestic lung allocation system on transplant performance.

METHODS

We conducted a retrospective analysis of transplant candidates and transplant patients registered in Korean Network for Organ Sharing between July 2015 and July 2019. Study periods were classified according to the introduction of the revised lung allocation system as follows: period 1 from July 2015 to June 2017 and period 2 from August 2017 to July 2019.

RESULTS

During the study period, a total of 627 patients were on the waiting list, of which 398 lung transplantations were performed. Total waiting list size increased by 98.6%, from 210 in period 1 to 417 in period 2. The number of transplant patients also increased by 32.7%, from 171 in period 1 to 227 in period 2. The number of donors decreased from 1,042 to 878, whereas the usage rate, i.e., the number of lung donors used for transplantation among the total number of reported lung donors, increased from 16.4% to 25.9%. The proportion of patients with high urgent status at transplantation increased from 45% to 60.4%, whereas those with urgent status decreased from 46.8% to 35.7% (P = 0.006). The use of marginal donor lungs increased from 29.8% to 53.7% (P < 0.001). To adjust urgency status and marginal donor usage between two groups, we conducted a propensity score matching analysis. No significant differences were detected in 1-year survival rates between the two periods after propensity score matching. As well, no significant difference was observed in mortality on the waiting list between the two periods.

CONCLUSION

The recent revision of the lung allocation system in Korea did not change the performance of lung transplant in terms of waiting list mortality and 1-year survival. The rapid increase in the volume of waiting list between the two periods increased the waiting time, transplantation of high-urgency patients, and use of marginal lung donors.

[Oxygen Therapy in Lung Transplantation Candidates - A Single Center Retrospective Analysis of 807 Patients]

BACKGROUND

 Long-term oxygen treatment (LTOT) is frequently used in patients with advanced pulmonary diseases and respiratory failure. Oxygen treatment influences donor lung allocation for patients and is associated with increased mortality. This study investigates oxygen therapy in lung transplantation candidates.

METHODS

 A retrospective study at a large German transplantation centre between 09/2011 and 01/2019 was performed. Data regarding oxygen therapy was analyzed and LTOT-indication verified by titrated blood gas analysis. The study period splits into 2 periods before and after the introduction of oxygen titration (3rd quarter of 2015). Univariate and multivariate analysis for the endpoint "admission to waiting list" was performed.

RESULTS

 807 patients were included in the analysis, 396 in the first and 411 patients in the second period. Of those 293 patients (36.3 %) were transplanted. Six hundred thirty (78 %) patients stated using oxygen for more than 12 hours per day. After implementing oxygen titration in period 2, in 212 (57 %) of 372 patients LTOT indication could be confirmed. Titrated oxygen flow was lower in period 2 (0.5 l/min [IQR 0.0 - 2.0] versus 2 l/min [IQR 0.5 - 3.0]). In multivariate analysis oxygen flow was associated with admission to waiting list as an independent variable.

CONCLUSION

 Patients referred to lung transplantation use oxygen therapy in the vast majority. Indication for LTOT should be carefully reassessed in candidates. Confirmed LTOT-indication seems to be associated with the likelihood for admission to the waiting list for lung transplantation and could therefore be a selection criterium in the future.

Developments in lung transplantation over the past decade

With an improved median survival of 6.2 years, lung transplantation has become an increasingly acceptable treatment option for end-stage lung disease. Besides survival benefit, improvement of quality of life is achieved in the vast majority of patients. Many developments have taken place in the field of lung transplantation over the past decade. Broadened indication criteria and bridging techniques for patients awaiting lung transplantation have led to increased waiting lists and changes in allocation schemes worldwide. Moreover, the use of previously unacceptable donor lungs for lung transplantation has increased, with donations from donors after cardiac death, donors with increasing age and donors with positive smoking status extending the donor pool substantially. Use of ex vivo lung perfusion further increased the number of lungs suitable for lung transplantation. Nonetheless, the use of these previously unacceptable lungs did not have detrimental effects on survival and long-term graft outcomes, and has decreased waiting list mortality. To further improve long-term outcomes, strategies have been proposed to modify chronic lung allograft dysfunction progression and minimise toxic immunosuppressive effects. This review summarises the developments in clinical lung transplantation over the past decade.

Lung allocation for transplant: The European perspective

Since the first successful lung transplants in humans were done in the 1980s, lung transplantation has become an established treatment for end-stage pulmonary disease. Because the access to transplantable organs is limited and unpredictable, rules that guide the allocation of lungs for transplants have emerged. Such rules are governed not only by medical and bioethical necessities, but also by local traditions, legislation, and practical circumstances. Therefore, there may be significant differences between the organ allocation practices in various parts of the world. In this brief communication, the European perspective on lung allocation is presented, also adding a very brief description of other parts of the world.

Clinical judgment versus lung allocation score in predicting lung transplant waitlist mortality

Canadian lung transplant centers currently use a subjective and dichotomous "Status" ranking to prioritize waitlisted patients for lung transplantation. The lung allocation score (LAS) is an objective composite score derived from clinical parameters associated with both waitlist and post-transplant survival. We performed a retrospective cohort study to determine whether clinical judgment (Status) or LAS better predicted waitlist mortality. All adult patients listed for lung transplantation between 2007 and 2012 at three Canadian lung transplant programs were included. Status and LAS were compared in their ability to predict waitlist mortality using Cox proportional hazards models and C-statistics. Status and LAS were available for 1122 patients. Status 2 patients had a higher LAS compared to Status 1 patients (mean 40.8 (4.4) vs 34.6 (12.5), P = .0001). Higher LAS was associated with higher risk of waitlist mortality (HR 1.06 per unit LAS, 95% CI 1.05, 1.07, P < .001). LAS predicted waitlist mortality better than Status (C-statistic 0.689 vs 0.674). Patients classified as Status 2 and LAS ≥ 37 had the worst survival awaiting transplant, HR of 8.94 (95% CI 5.97, 13.37). LAS predicted waitlist mortality better than Status; however, the best predictor of waitlist mortality may be a combination of both LAS and clinical judgment.

Lung transplantation: a review of the optimal strategies for referral and patient selection

One of the great challenges of lung transplantation is to bridge the dichotomy between supply and demand of donor organs so that the maximum number of potential recipients achieve a meaningful benefit in improvements in survival and quality of life. To achieve this laudable goal is predicated on choosing candidates who are sufficiently unwell, in fact possessing a terminal respiratory illness, but otherwise fit and able to undergo major surgery and a prolonged recuperation and rehabilitation stage combined with ongoing adherence to complex medical therapies. The choice of potential candidate and the timing of that referral is at times perhaps more art than science, but there are a number of solid guidelines for specific illnesses to assist the interested clinician. In this regard, the relationship between the referring clinician and the lung transplant unit is a critical one. It is an ongoing and dynamic process of education and two way communication, which is a marker of the professionalism of a highly performing unit. Lung transplantation is ultimately a team effort where the recipient is the key player. That principle has been enshrined in the three consensus position statements regarding selection criteria for lung and heart-lung transplantation promulgated by the International Society for Heart and Lung Transplantation over the last two decades. During this period, the number of indications for lung transplantation have broadened and the number of contraindications reduced. Risk management is paramount in the pre- and perioperative period to effect early successful outcomes. While it is not the province of this review to reiterate the detailed listing of those factors, an overview position will be developed that describes the rationale and evidence for selected criteria where that exists. Importantly, the authors will attempt to provide an historical and experiential basis for making these important and life-determining decisions.

The reviews of this paper are available via the supplementary material section.

Timing it right: the challenge of recipient selection for lung transplantation

Selection criteria for the referral and potential listing of patients for lung transplantation (LTx) have changed considerably over the last three decades but one key maxim prevails, the ultimate focus is to increase longevity and quality of life by careful utilization of a rare and precious resource, the donor organs. In this article, we review how the changes have developed and the outcomes of those changes, highlighting the impact of the lung allocation score (LAS) system. Major diseases, including interstitial lung disease (ILD), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and pulmonary hypertension are considered in detail as well as the concept of retransplantation where appropriate. Results from bridging to LTx using extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (ECMO) are discussed and other potential contraindications evaluated such as advanced age, frailty and resistant infections. Given the multiplicity of risk factors it is a credit to those working in the field that such excellent and improving results are obtained with an ongoing dedication to achieving best practice.

Impact of donor, recipient and matching on survival after high emergency lung transplantation in France

INTRODUCTION

Since July 2007, the French high emergency lung transplantation (HELT) allocation procedure prioritises available lung grafts to waiting patients with imminent risk of death. The relative impacts of donor, recipient and matching on the outcome following HELT remain unknown. We aimed at deciphering the relative impacts of donor, recipient and matching on the outcome following HELT in an exhaustive administrative database.

METHODS

All lung transplantations performed in France were prospectively registered in an administrative database. We retrospectively reviewed the procedures performed between July 2007 and December 2015, and analysed the impact of donor, recipient and matching on overall survival after the HELT procedure by fitting marginal Cox models.

RESULTS

During the study period, 2335 patients underwent lung transplantation in 11 French centres. After exclusion of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease/emphysema, 1544 patients were included: 503 HELT and 1041 standard lung transplantation allocations. HELT was associated with a hazard ratio for death of 1.41 (95% CI 1.22-1.64; p<0.0001) in univariate analysis, decreasing to 1.32 (95% CI 1.10-1.60) after inclusion of recipient characteristics in a multivariate model. A donor score computed to predict long-term survival was significantly different between the HELT and standard lung transplantation groups (p=0.014). However, the addition of donor characteristics to recipient characteristics in the multivariate model did not change the hazard ratio associated with HELT.

CONCLUSIONS

This exhaustive French national study suggests that HELT is associated with an adverse outcome compared with regular allocation. This adverse outcome is mainly related to the severity status of the recipients rather than donor or matching characteristics.