Mutualistic interactions reshuffle the effects of climate change on plants across the tree of life

Species occupancy is inflated by sink populations in productive environments but not unproductive environments

For decades, community ecologists have examined how diversity varies with ecosystem productivity. Despite this long history, tests of hypothesized mechanisms, namely the interplay between environmental filtering, biotic interactions, and dispersal, are lacking, largely due to the intractability of using traditional approaches. Across a productivity gradient in a serpentine grassland (California, USA), for four annual plant species, we coupled local productivity estimates, occupancy surveys, and measures of persistence tested on transplants under natural conditions and when interactions with neighbors were experimentally reduced. We found a positive effect of productivity on diversity (i.e., the proportion of our focal species occupying a location) despite strong competition limiting species persistence in productive environments. Additionally, across species and for the community, we found a strong mismatch between species occupancy versus persistence, largely due to dispersal excess causing sink populations with negative growth rates. Our results suggest that diversity-productivity relationships can be largely driven by dispersal and its interactive effects with local biotic and abiotic conditions.

Cospeciation is not the dominant driver of plant-pollinator codiversification in specialized pollination systems

This study systematically rejects the long-standing notion of cospeciation as the dominant driver of codiversification between flowering plants and their specialist pollinators. Through cophylogenetic analysis of six classical specialized pollination systems, the research finds that cospeciation events are consistently outnumbered by non-cospeciation events, such as host-switch, duplication, and association losses. The findings support a more dynamic and diffuse codiversification paradigm, highlighting the importance of considering a broader range of evolutionary events in understanding plant-pollinator codiversification. This new understanding is robust across diverse pollination systems and has significant implications for conservation strategies in the face of environmental change.

Untangling the Complexity of Climate Change Effects on Plant Reproductive Traits and Pollinators: A Systematic Global Synthesis

Climate change is expected to affect the morphological, physiological, and life-history traits of plants and animal pollinators due to more frequent extreme heat and other altered weather patterns. This systematic literature review evaluates the effects of climate change on plant and pollinator traits on a global scale to determine how species responses vary among Earth's ecosystems, climate variables, taxonomic groups, and organismal traits. We compiled studies conducted under natural or experimental conditions (excluding agricultural species) and analyzed species response patterns for each trait (advance vs. delay or no change for phenology, decrease vs. increase or no change for other traits). Climate change has advanced plant and animal phenologies across most Earth's biomes, but evidence for temporal plant-pollinator mismatches remains limited. Flower production and plant reproductive success showed diverse responses to warming and low water availability in Alpine and Temperate ecosystems, and a trend for increased or neutral responses in Arctic and Tropical biomes. Nectar rewards mainly experienced negative effects under warming and drought across Alpine and Temperate biomes, but scent emissions increased or changed in composition. Life form (woody vs. nonwoody species) did not significantly influence trait response patterns to climate change. Pollinator fecundity, size, life-history, developmental, and physiological traits mostly declined with warming across biomes; however, animal abundance and resource acquisition traits showed diverse responses. This review identified critical knowledge gaps that limit our understanding of the impacts of climate change, particularly in tropical/subtropical biomes and southern latitudes. It also highlights the urgent need to sample across a greater range of plant families and pollinator taxa (e.g., beetles, wasps, vertebrates). The diversity of climate change effects should be assessed in the context of other anthropogenic drivers of global change that threaten critically important pollination interactions.

Multilevel Dynamic System as Molecular Morning-After Timer

Systems chemistry aims to develop molecular systems that display emerging properties arising from their network and absent in their individual constituents. Employing reversible chemistry under thermodynamic control represents a valuable tool for generating dynamic combinatorial libraries of interconverting molecules, which may exhibit intriguing collective behaviour. A simple dynamic combinatorial library was prepared using dithioacetal/thiol/disulfide exchanges. Because of the relative reactivities of these reversible reactions, the library constitutes a two-layer dynamic system with one layer active in an acid medium (thiol/dithioacetal exchange) and one layer active in a basic medium (thiol/disulfide exchange). This property enables the system to respond to momentary changes in acidity of the medium by activating different network regions, channeling some building blocks from one layer to another through shared thiol reagents (nodes). This momentaneous change in wiring affects the final steady state composition of the library, measured the next day, even though the event that caused it vanishes without leaving any residue. Therefore, the final composition of this dynamic system provides information about this transient past perturbation in the environment such as: when it occurred, how long it was, or how intense it was.

Climate change extinctions

Climate change is expected to cause irreversible changes to biodiversity, but predicting those risks remains uncertain. I synthesized 485 studies and more than 5 million projections to produce a quantitative global assessment of climate change extinctions. With increased certainty, this meta-analysis suggests that extinctions will accelerate rapidly if global temperatures exceed 1.5°C. The highest-emission scenario would threaten approximately one-third of species, globally. Amphibians; species from mountain, island, and freshwater ecosystems; and species inhabiting South America, Australia, and New Zealand face the greatest threats. In line with predictions, climate change has contributed to an increasing proportion of observed global extinctions since 1970. Besides limiting greenhouse gases, pinpointing which species to protect first will be critical for preserving biodiversity until anthropogenic climate change is halted and reversed.

Organic fertilizer substitution benefits microbial richness and wheat yield under warming

Climate warming poses a serious threat to soil biodiversity and crop yield. Application of organic fertilizer has been extensively practiced to improve soil health and crop productivity. However, information is limited about the effects of organic fertilizer on microbial communities and diversity (richness) under warming. Thus, to investigate the interactive effects of temperature (ambient temperature and warming) and fertilizer (chemical fertilizer and partial substitution of chemical fertilizer with organic fertilizer) on microbial properties and wheat yield, a two-factorial pot experiment was conducted using soils with high and low fertility The results showed that warming and organic fertilizer had minor effects on bacterial Shannon and Simpson indexes. Due to concomitant reductions in soil moisture, warming decreased the average Chao index by 5.4 % and Ace index by 3.8 % for soils with high and low fertility (P < 0.05). High-throughput sequence presented that dominated genus was Bacillus with spore-forming ability. Under warming and drying conditions, microbes with adaptive traits (spore-forming ability) would outcompete the other microbes, and decrease microbial Chao and Ace index (richness). However, organic fertilizer counteracted the adverse effects of warming on microbial richness attributed to positive interaction between temperature and fertilizer on soil nutrients and organic carbon. The strong relationships between bacterial richness and wheat yield, as well as soil nutrients, highlighted the importance of soil biodiversity in improving soil nutrients and crop productivity. Partial substitution of chemical fertilizer with organic fertilizer significantly increased wheat yield by 27.1 % and 14.9 % under ambient temperature and by 28.0 % and 19.6 % under warming for soils with high and low fertility, respectively. Overall, this study provided the possibility to increase bacterial richness related to nutrient turnover and crop production by organic fertilizer application with reduced chemical fertilizer, especially under climate warming.

Phytochemical-mediated regulation of aflatoxigenic fungi contamination in a shifting climate and environment

Mycotoxin contamination poses a significant problem in developing countries, particularly in northern Pakistan's fluctuating climate. This study aimed to assess aflatoxin contamination in medicinal and condiment plants in Upper Dir (dry-temperate) and Upper Swat (moist-temperate) districts. Plant samples were collected and screened for mycotoxins (Aflatoxin-B1 and Aflatoxin-B-2). Results showed high levels of AFB-1 (11,505.42 ± 188.82) as compared to AFB-2 (846 ± 241.56). The maximum contamination of AFB-1 in Coriandrum sativum (1154.5 ± 13.43 ng to 3328 ± 9.9 ng) followed by F. vulgare (883 ± 9.89 ng to 2483 ± 8.4 ng), T. ammi (815 ± 11.31 ng to 2316 ± 7.1 ng), and C. longa (935.5 ± 2.12 ng to 2009 ± 4.2 ng) while the minimum was reported in C. cyminum (671 ± 9.91 ng to 1995 ± 5.7 ng). Antifungal tests indicated potential resistance in certain plant species (C. cyminum) while A. flavus as the most toxins contributing species due to high resistance below 80% (54.2 ± 0.55 to 79.5 ± 2.02). HPLC analysis revealed hydroxyl benzoic acid (5136 amu) as the dominant average phytochemical followed by phloroglucinol (4144.31 amu) with individual contribution of 8542.08 amu and 12,181.5 amu from C. cyaminum. The comparison of average phytochemicals revealed the maximum concentration in C. cyminum (2885.95) followed by C. longa (1892.73). The findings revealed a statistically significant and robust negative correlation (y = - 2.7239 ×  + 5141.9; r = - 0.8136; p < 0.05) between average mycotoxins and phytochemical concentrations. Temperature positively correlated with aflatoxin levels (p < 0.01), while humidity had a weaker correlation. Elevation showed a negative correlation (p < 0.05), while geographical factors (latitude and longitude) had mixed correlations (p < 0.05). Specific regions exhibited increasing aflatoxin trends due to climatic and geographic factors.

Using individual-based trait frequency distributions to forecast plant-pollinator network responses to environmental change

Determining how and why organisms interact is fundamental to understanding ecosystem responses to future environmental change. To assess the impact on plant-pollinator interactions, recent studies have examined how the effects of environmental change on individual interactions accumulate to generate species-level responses. Here, we review recent developments in using plant-pollinator networks of interacting individuals along with their functional traits, where individuals are nested within species nodes. We highlight how these individual-level, trait-based networks connect intraspecific trait variation (as frequency distributions of multiple traits) with dynamic responses within plant-pollinator communities. This approach can better explain interaction plasticity, and changes to interaction probabilities and network structure over spatiotemporal or other environmental gradients. We argue that only through appreciating such trait-based interaction plasticity can we accurately forecast the potential vulnerability of interactions to future environmental change. We follow this with general guidance on how future studies can collect and analyse high-resolution interaction and trait data, with the hope of improving predictions of future plant-pollinator network responses for targeted and effective conservation.

Plant-hummingbird pollination networks exhibit limited rewiring after experimental removal of a locally abundant plant species

Mutualistic relationships, such as those between plants and pollinators, may be vulnerable to the local extinctions predicted under global environmental change. However, network theory predicts that plant-pollinator networks can withstand species loss if pollinators switch to alternative floral resources (rewiring). Whether rewiring occurs following species loss in natural communities is poorly known because replicated species exclusions are difficult to implement at appropriate spatial scales. We experimentally removed a hummingbird-pollinated plant, Heliconia tortuosa, from within tropical forest fragments to investigate how hummingbirds respond to temporary loss of an abundant resource. Under the rewiring hypothesis, we expected that behavioural flexibility would allow hummingbirds to use alternative resources, leading to decreased ecological specialization and reorganization of the network structure (i.e. pairwise interactions). Alternatively, morphological or behavioural constraints-such as trait-matching or interspecific competition-might limit the extent to which hummingbirds alter their foraging behaviour. We employed a replicated Before-After-Control-Impact experimental design and quantified plant-hummingbird interactions using two parallel sampling methods: pollen collected from individual hummingbirds ('pollen networks', created from >300 pollen samples) and observations of hummingbirds visiting focal plants ('camera networks', created from >19,000 observation hours). To assess the extent of rewiring, we quantified ecological specialization at the individual, species and network levels and examined interaction turnover (i.e. gain/loss of pairwise interactions). H. tortuosa removal caused some reorganization of pairwise interactions but did not prompt large changes in specialization, despite the large magnitude of our manipulation (on average, >100 inflorescences removed in exclusion areas of >1 ha). Although some individual hummingbirds sampled through time showed modest increases in niche breadth following Heliconia removal (relative to birds that did not experience resource loss), these changes were not reflected in species- and network-level specialization metrics. Our results suggest that, at least over short time-scales, animals may not necessarily shift to alternative resources after losing an abundant food resource-even in species thought to be highly opportunistic foragers, such as hummingbirds. Given that rewiring contributes to theoretical predictions of network stability, future studies should investigate why pollinators might not expand their diets after a local resource extinction.

Rising temperature drives tipping points in mutualistic networks

The effect of climate warming on species' physiological parameters, including growth rate, mortality rate and handling time, is well established from empirical data. However, with an alarming rise in global temperature more than ever, predicting the interactive influence of these changes on mutualistic communities remains uncertain. Using 139 real plant-pollinator networks sampled across the globe and a modelling approach, we study the impact of species' individual thermal responses on mutualistic communities. We show that at low mutualistic strength plant-pollinator networks are at potential risk of rapid transitions at higher temperatures. Evidently, generalist species play a critical role in guiding tipping points in mutualistic networks. Further, we derive stability criteria for the networks in a range of temperatures using a two-dimensional reduced model. We identify network structures that can ascertain the delay of a community collapse. Until the end of this century, on account of increasing climate warming many real mutualistic networks are likely to be under the threat of sudden collapse, and we frame strategies to mitigate this. Together, our results indicate that knowing individual species' thermal responses and network structure can improve predictions for communities facing rapid transitions.

The Resilience of Plant-Pollinator Networks

There is growing awareness of pollinator declines worldwide. Conservation efforts have mainly focused on finding the direct causes, while paying less attention to building a systemic understanding of the fragility of these communities of pollinators. To fill this gap, we need operational measures of network resilience that integrate two different approaches in theoretical ecology. First, we should consider the range of conditions compatible with the stable coexistence of all of the species in a community. Second, we should address the rate and shape of network collapse once this safe operational space is exited. In this review, we describe this integrative approach and consider several mechanisms that may enhance the resilience of pollinator communities, chiefly rewiring the network of interactions, increasing heterogeneity, allowing variance, and enhancing coevolution. The most pressing need is to develop ways to reduce the gap between these theoretical recommendations and practical applications. This perspective shifts the emphasis from traditional approaches focusing on the equilibrium states to strategies that allow pollination networks to cope with global environmental change.

Evolutionary double suicide in symbiotic systems

Mutualism is thought to face a threat of coextinction cascade because the loss of a member species could lead to the extinction of the other member. Despite this common emphasis on the perils of such knock-on effect, hitherto, the evolutionary causes leading to extinction have been less emphasised. Here, we examine how extinction could be triggered in mutualism and whether an evolutionary response to partner loss could prevent collateral extinctions, by theoretically examining the coevolution of the host exploitation by symbionts and host dependence on symbiosis. Our model reveals that mutualism is more vulnerable to co-extinction through adaptive evolution (evolutionary double suicide) than parasitism. Additionally, it shows that the risk of evolutionary double suicide rarely promotes the backward evolution to an autonomous (non-symbiotic) state. Our results provide a new perspective on the evolutionary fragility of mutualism and the rarity of observed evolutionary transitions from mutualism to parasitism.

Mixed-species bird flocks re-assemble interspecific associations across an elevational gradient

Understanding how non-trophic social systems respond to environmental gradients is still a challenge in animal ecology, particularly in comparing changes in species composition to changes in interspecific interactions. Here, we combined long-term monitoring of mixed-species bird flocks, data on participating species' evolutionary history and traits, to test how elevation affected community assemblages and interspecific interactions in flock social networks. Elevation primarily affected flocks through reassembling interspecific associations rather than modifying community assemblages. Specifically, flock networks at higher elevations (compared to low elevations) had stronger interspecific associations (larger average weighted degree), network connectivity (enhanced network density) and fewer subnetworks. A phylogenetic and functional perspective revealed that associations between similar species weakened, whereas connections between dissimilar and/or random species were unchanged or strengthened with elevation. Likewise, network assortativity for the traits of vertical stratum and breeding period declined with elevation. The overall pattern is a change from modular networks in the lowlands, where species join flocks with other species that have matching traits, to a more open, random system at high elevations. Collectively, this rewiring of interspecific networks across elevational gradients imparts network stability and resiliency and makes mixed-species flocks less sensitive to local extinctions caused by harsh environments.

Evaluating the persistence and utility of five wild Vitis species in the context of climate change

Crop wild relatives (CWRs) have the capacity to contribute novel traits to agriculture. Given climate change, these contributions may be especially vital for the persistence of perennial crops, because perennials are often clonally propagated and consequently do not evolve rapidly. By studying the landscape genomics of samples from five Vitis CWRs (V. arizonica, V. mustangensis, V. riparia, V. berlandieri and V. girdiana) in the context of projected climate change, we addressed two goals. The first was to assess the relative potential of different CWR accessions to persist in the face of climate change. By integrating species distribution models with adaptive genetic variation, additional genetic features such as genomic load and a phenotype (resistance to Pierce's Disease), we predicted that accessions from one species (V. mustangensis) are particularly well-suited to persist in future climates. The second goal was to identify which CWR accessions may contribute to bioclimatic adaptation for grapevine (V. vinifera) cultivation. To do so, we evaluated whether CWR accessions have the allelic capacity to persist if moved to locations where grapevines are cultivated in the United States. We identified six candidates from V. mustangensis and hypothesized that they may prove useful for contributing alleles that can mitigate climate impacts on viticulture. By identifying candidate germplasm, this study takes a conceptual step toward assessing the genomic and bioclimatic characteristics of CWRs.

Effects of habitat destruction on coevolving metacommunities

Habitat destruction is a growing threat to biodiversity and ecosystem services. The ecological consequences of habitat loss and fragmentation involve reductions in species abundance and even the extinction of species and their interactions. However, we do not yet understand how habitat loss alters the coevolutionary trajectories of the remaining species or how coevolution, in turn, affects their response to habitat loss. To investigate this, we develop a spatially explicit model which couples metacommunity and coevolutionary dynamics. We show that, by changing the size, composition and structure of local networks, habitat destruction increases the diversity of coevolutionary trajectories of mutualists across the landscape. Conversely, in antagonistic communities, some species increase while others reduce their spatial trait heterogeneity. Furthermore, we show that while coevolution dampens the negative effects of habitat destruction in mutualistic networks, its effects on the persistence of antagonistic communities tend to be smaller and less predictable.

Dispersal abilities favor commensalism in animal-plant interactions under climate change

Scientists still poorly understand how biotic interactions and dispersal limitation jointly interact and affect the ability of species to track suitable habitats under climate change. Here, we examine how animal-plant interactions and dispersal limitations might affect the responses of Brazil nut-dependent frogs facing projected climate change. Using ecological niche modelling and dispersal simulations, we forecast the future distributions of the Brazil nut tree and three commensalist frog species over time (2030, 2050, 2070, and 2090) in the regional rivalry (SSP370) scenario that includes great challenges to mitigation and adaptation. With the exception of one species, projections point to a decrease in suitable habitats of up to 40.6%. For frog species with potential reductions of co-occurrence areas, this is expected to reduce up to 23.8% of suitable areas for binomial animal-plant relationships. Even so, biotic interactions should not be lost over time. Species will depend on their own dispersal abilities to reach analogous climates in the future for maintaining ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa. However, ecological and evolutionary processes associated with commensal taxa should be maintained in accordance with their own dispersal ability. When dispersal limitation is included in the models, the suitable range of all three frog species is reduced considerably by the end of the century. This highlights the importance of dispersal limitation inclusion for forecasting future distribution ranges when biotic interactions matter.

Functional diversity regulates the effects of habitat degradation on biocrust phylogenetic and taxonomic diversities

Biocrusts are major contributors to dryland diversity, functioning, and services. However, little is known about how habitat degradation will impact multiple facets of biocrust diversity and measurable functional traits. We evaluated changes in taxonomic, functional, and phylogenetic diversity of biocrust-forming lichens along a habitat degradation gradient related to the presence of linear infrastructure (i.e., a road) and a profound agricultural driven transformation. To do so, we selected 50 remnants of a Mediterranean shrubland. We considered several surrogates of habitat quality and causal disturbance on the various diversity facets of biocrusts by using structural equation modeling, hypothesizing that habitat degradation primarily affects functional diversity, which in turn regulates changes in taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities, and also that taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities are coupled. Fragment connectivity, distance to linear infrastructure (i.e., a road) and, particularly, soil fertility (i.e., soil P concentration), had mostly negative effects on biocrust functional diversity, which in turn affected both taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities. However, we found no direct effects of habitat degradation variables on the taxonomic and phylogenetic diversities. We also found that increases in phylogenetic diversity had a positive effect on taxonomic diversity along the habitat degradation gradient. Our results indicate that functional diversity of biocrusts is strongly affected by habitat degradation, which may profoundly alter their contribution to ecosystem functioning and services. Furthermore, functional diversity regulates the response of biocrust taxonomic and phylogenetic diversity to habitat degradation. These findings indicate that habitat degradation alters and simplifies the diversity of functional traits of biocrust-forming lichens, leading to biodiversity loss, with important consequences for the conservation of global drylands biodiversity.

Reduction of microbial diversity in grassland soil is driven by long-term climate warming

Anthropogenic climate change threatens ecosystem functioning. Soil biodiversity is essential for maintaining the health of terrestrial systems, but how climate change affects the richness and abundance of soil microbial communities remains unresolved. We examined the effects of warming, altered precipitation and annual biomass removal on grassland soil bacterial, fungal and protistan communities over 7 years to determine how these representative climate changes impact microbial biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. We show that experimental warming and the concomitant reductions in soil moisture play a predominant role in shaping microbial biodiversity by decreasing the richness of bacteria (9.6%), fungi (14.5%) and protists (7.5%). Our results also show positive associations between microbial biodiversity and ecosystem functional processes, such as gross primary productivity and microbial biomass. We conclude that the detrimental effects of biodiversity loss might be more severe in a warmer world.

Interaction fidelity is less common than expected in plant-pollinator communities

Pairs of plants and pollinators species sometimes consistently interact throughout time and across space. Such consistency can be interpreted as a sign of interaction fidelity, that is a consistent interaction between two species when they co-occur in the same place. But how common interaction fidelity is and what determines interaction fidelity in plant-pollinator communities remain open questions. We aim to assess how frequent is interaction fidelity between plants and their pollinators and what drives interaction fidelity across plant-pollinator communities. Using a dataset of 141 networks around the world, we quantify whether the interaction between pairs of plant and pollinator species happens more ('interaction fidelity') or less ('interaction avoidance') often than expected by chance given the structure of the networks in which they co-occur. We also explore the relationship between interaction fidelity and species' degree (i.e. number of interactions), and the taxonomy of the species involved in the interaction. Our findings reveal that most plant-pollinator interactions do not differ from random expectations, in other words show neither fidelity nor avoidance. Out of the total 44,814 co-occurring species pairs we found 7,877 unique pair interactions (18%). Only 551 (7%) of the 7,877 plant-pollinator interactions did show significant interaction fidelity, meaning that these pairs interact in a consistent and non-random way across networks. We also find that 39 (0.09%) out of 44,814 plant-pollinator pairs showed significant interaction avoidance. Our results suggest that interactions involving specialist species have a high probability to show interaction fidelity and a low probability of interaction avoidance. In addition, we find that particular associations between plant and insect orders, as for example interactions between Hymenoptera and Fabales, showed high fidelity and low avoidance. Although niche and neutral processes simultaneously influence patterns of interaction in ecological communities, our findings suggest that it is rather neutral processes that are shaping the patterns of interactions in plant-pollinator networks.

Extinction, coextinction and colonization dynamics in plant-hummingbird networks under climate change

Climate-driven range shifts may cause local extinctions, while the accompanying loss of biotic interactions may trigger secondary coextinctions. At the same time, climate change may facilitate colonizations from regional source pools, balancing out local species loss. At present, how these extinction-coextinction-colonization dynamics affect biological communities under climate change is poorly understood. Using 84 communities of interacting plants and hummingbirds, we simulated patterns in climate-driven extinctions, coextinctions and colonizations under future climate change scenarios. Our simulations showed clear geographic discrepancies in the communities' vulnerability to climate change. Andean communities were the least affected by future climate change, as they experienced few climate-driven extinctions and coextinctions while having the highest colonization potential. In North America and lowland South America, communities had many climate-driven extinctions and few colonization events. Meanwhile, the pattern of coextinction was highly dependent on the configuration of networks formed by interacting hummingbirds and plants. Notably, North American communities experienced proportionally fewer coextinctions than other regions because climate-driven extinctions here primarily affected species with peripheral network roles. Moreover, coextinctions generally decreased in communities where species have few overlapping interactions, that is, communities with more complementary specialized and modular networks. Together, these results highlight that we should not expect colonizations to adequately balance out local extinctions in the most vulnerable ecoregions.

Climate change threatens native potential agroforestry plant species in Brazil

Climate change is one of the main drivers of species extinction in the twentyfirst-century. Here, we  (1) quantify potential changes in species' bioclimatic area of habitat (BAH) of 135 native potential agroforestry species from the Brazilian flora, using two different climate change scenarios (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) and dispersal scenarios, where species have no ability to disperse and reach new areas (non-dispersal) and where species can migrate within the estimated BAH (full dispersal) for 2041–2060 and 2061–2080. We then (2) assess the preliminary conservation status of each species based on IUCN criteria. Current and future potential habitats for species were predicted using MaxEnt, a machine-learning algorithm used to estimate species' probability distribution. Future climate is predicted to trigger a mean decline in BAH between 38.5–56.3% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 22.3–41.9% under the full dispersal scenario for 135 native potential agroforestry species. Additionally, we found that only 4.3% of the studied species could be threatened under the IUCN Red List criteria B1 and B2. However, when considering the predicted quantitative habitat loss due to climate change (A3c criterion) the percentages increased between 68.8–84.4% under the non-dispersal scenario and between 40.7–64.4% under the full dispersal scenario. To lessen such threats, we argue that encouraging the use of these species in rural and peri-urban agroecosystems are promising, complementary strategies for their long-term conservation.

The evolutionary genomics of species' responses to climate change

Climate change is a threat to biodiversity. One way that this threat manifests is through pronounced shifts in the geographical range of species over time. To predict these shifts, researchers have primarily used species distribution models. However, these models are based on assumptions of niche conservatism and do not consider evolutionary processes, potentially limiting their accuracy and value. To incorporate evolution into the prediction of species' responses to climate change, researchers have turned to landscape genomic data and examined information about local genetic adaptation using climate models. Although this is an important advancement, this approach currently does not include other evolutionary processes-such as gene flow, population dispersal and genomic load-that are critical for predicting the fate of species across the landscape. Here, we briefly review the current practices for the use of species distribution models and for incorporating local adaptation. We next discuss the rationale and theory for considering additional processes, reviewing how they can be incorporated into studies of species' responses to climate change. We summarize with a conceptual framework of how manifold layers of information can be combined to predict the potential response of specific populations to climate change. We illustrate all of the topics using an exemplar dataset and provide the source code as potential tutorials. This Perspective is intended to be a step towards a more comprehensive integration of population genomics with climate change science.

Genetic and plastic rewiring of food webs under climate change

Climate change is altering ecological and evolutionary processes across biological scales. These simultaneous effects of climate change pose a major challenge for predicting the future state of populations, communities and ecosystems. This challenge is further exacerbated by the current lack of integration of research focused on these different scales.

We propose that integrating the fields of quantitative genetics and food web ecology will reveal new insights on how climate change may reorganize biodiversity across levels of organization. This is because quantitative genetics links the genotypes of individuals to population‐level phenotypic variation due to genetic (G), environmental (E) and gene‐by‐environment (G × E) factors. Food web ecology, on the other hand, links population‐level phenotypes to the structure and dynamics of communities and ecosystems.

We synthesize data and theory across these fields and find evidence that genetic (G) and plastic (E and G × E) phenotypic variation within populations will change in magnitude under new climates in predictable ways. We then show how changes in these sources of phenotypic variation can rewire food webs by altering the number and strength of species interactions, with consequences for ecosystem resilience. We also find evidence suggesting there are predictable asymmetries in genetic and plastic trait variation across trophic levels, which set the pace for phenotypic change and food web responses to climate change. Advances in genomics now make it possible to partition G, E and G × E phenotypic variation in natural populations, allowing tests of the hypotheses we propose.

By synthesizing advances in quantitative genetics and food web ecology, we provide testable predictions for how the structure and dynamics of biodiversity will respond to climate change.

Habitat restoration in spatially explicit metacommunity models

In a time of rapid habitat destruction threatening the existence of many species, restoration of degraded habitats plays a crucial role in hampering biodiversity decline and recovering ecosystem services. The goal of this study is to advance the understanding of the consequences of habitat restoration on metacommunities, which is of upmost importance for designing successful restoration projects. We approach habitat restoration from a theoretical perspective by analysing spatially explicit metacommunity models which have previously been essential to understanding the effects of habitat loss and fragmentation. We investigate the efficiency of various restoration strategies on metacommunities involving interactions ranging from pairwise competition, predation and mutualism to more complex three-trophic modules. Our novel approach for measuring the restoration efficiency enables direct comparison of the responses of species in different metacommunities. We show that species recovery is affected by the amount of habitat destroyed, and the restoration strategy. When habitat is restored by randomly selecting destroyed sites, species recovery becomes less efficient and more uncertain with increasing amount of previously destroyed habitat. However, when the destroyed sites are restored in clusters, minimising the effects of fragmentation, species recovery and the certainty of success are substantially improved. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the community structure and the types of interactions involved determine the most efficient restoration approach. Our findings highlight the importance of carefully planning the restoration process, especially in landscapes where a large proportion of habitat has been destroyed, and with species at the brink of extinction. Our results may be used as guidelines for designing habitat restoration projects.

Network Analysis: Ten Years Shining Light on Host-Parasite Interactions

Biological interactions are key drivers of ecological and evolutionary processes. The complexity of such interactions hinders our understanding of ecological systems and our ability to make effective predictions in changing environments. However, network analysis allows us to better tackle the complexity of ecosystems because it extracts the properties of an ecological system according to the number and distribution of links among interacting entities. The number of studies using network analysis to solve ecological and evolutionary questions in parasitology has increased over the past decade. Here, we synthesise the contribution of network analysis toward disentangling host-parasite processes. Furthermore, we identify current trends in mainstream ecology and novel applications of network analysis that present opportunities for research on host-parasite interactions.

An experimental approach to assessing the impact of ecosystem engineers on biodiversity and ecosystem functions

Plants acting as ecosystem engineers create habitats and facilitate biodiversity maintenance within plant communities. Furthermore, biodiversity research has demonstrated that plant diversity enhances the productivity and functioning of ecosystems. However, these two fields of research developed in parallel and independent from one another, with the consequence that little is known about the role of ecosystem engineers in the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning across trophic levels. Here, we present an experimental framework to study this relationship. We combine facilitation by plants acting as ecosystem engineers with plant-insect interaction analysis and variance partitioning of biodiversity effects. We present a case-study experiment in which facilitation by a cushion-plant species and a dwarf-shrub species as ecosystem engineers increases positive effects of plant functional diversity (ecosystem engineers and associated plants) on ecosystem functioning (flower visitation rate). The experiment, conducted in the field during a single alpine flowering season, included the following treatments: (1) removal of plant species associated with ecosystem engineers, (2) exclusion (covering) of ecosystem engineer flowers, and (3) control, i.e., natural patches of ecosystem engineers and associated plant species. We found both positive and negative associational effects between plants depending on ecosystem engineer identity, indicating both pollination facilitation and interference. In both cases, patches supported by ecosystem engineers increased phylogenetic and functional diversity of flower visitors. Furthermore, complementarity effects between engineers and associated plants were positive for flower visitation rates. Our study reveals that plant facilitation can enhance the strength of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships, with complementarity between plants for attracting more and diverse flower visitors being the likely driver. A potential mechanism is that synergy and complementarity between engineers and associated plants increase attractiveness for shared visitors and widen pollination niches. In synthesis, facilitation among plants can scale up to a full network, supporting ecosystem functioning both directly via microhabitat amelioration and indirectly via diversity effects.

Downsizing of animal communities triggers stronger functional than structural decay in seed-dispersal networks

Downsizing of animal communities due to defaunation is prevalent in many ecosystems. Yet, we know little about its consequences for ecosystem functions such as seed dispersal. Here, we use eight seed-dispersal networks sampled across the Andes and simulate how downsizing of avian frugivores impacts structural network robustness and seed dispersal. We use a trait-based modeling framework to quantify the consequences of downsizing-relative to random extinctions-for the number of interactions and secondary plant extinctions (as measures of structural robustness) and for long-distance seed dispersal (as a measure of ecosystem function). We find that downsizing leads to stronger functional than structural losses. For instance, 10% size-structured loss of bird species results in almost 40% decline of long-distance seed dispersal, but in less than 10% of structural loss. Our simulations reveal that measures of the structural robustness of ecological networks underestimate the consequences of animal extinction and downsizing for ecosystem functioning.

Exploiting complexity to implement function in chemical systems

This feature article reflects a personal overview of the importance of complexity as an additional parameter to be considered in chemical research, being illustrated with selected examples in molecular recognition and catalysis.

Climate change threatens New Guinea's biocultural heritage

New Guinea is the most biologically and linguistically diverse tropical island on Earth, yet the potential impacts of climate change on its biocultural heritage remain unknown. Analyzing 2353 endemic plant species distributions, we find that 63% of species are expected to have smaller geographic ranges by 2070. As a result, ecoregions may have an average of -70 ± 40 fewer species by 2070. Species with future geographic range contractions include 720 endemic plant species that are used by indigenous people, and we find that these will decrease in 80% of New Guinea's 1030 language areas, with losses of up to 94 species per language area. To mitigate the threats of climate change on the flora, we identify priority sites for protected area expansion that can jointly maximize biodiversity and useful plant conservation.

Recent Anthropogenic Plant Extinctions Differ in Biodiversity Hotspots and Coldspots

During the Anthropocene, humans are changing the Earth system in ways that will be detectable for millennia to come [1]. Biologically, these changes include habitat destruction, biotic homogenization, increased species invasions, and accelerated extinctions [2]. Contemporary extinction rates far surpass background rates [3], but they seem remarkably low in plants [4, 5]. However, biodiversity is not evenly distributed, and as a result, extinction rates may vary among regions. Some authors have contentiously argued that novel anthropic habitats and human-induced plant speciation can actually increase regional biodiversity [6, 7]. Here, we report on one of the most comprehensive datasets to date, including regional and global plant extinctions in both biodiversity hotspots (mostly from Mediterranean-type climate regions) and coldspots (mostly from Eurasian countries). Our data come from regions covering 15.3% of the Earth's surface and span over 300 years. With this dataset, we explore the trends, causes, and temporal dynamics of recent plant extinctions. We found more, and faster accrual of, absolute numbers of extinction events in biodiversity hotspots compared to coldspots. Extinction rates were also substantially higher than historical background rates, but recent declines are evident. We found higher levels of taxonomic uniqueness being lost in biodiversity coldspots compared to hotspots. Causes of plant extinctions also showed distinct temporal patterns, with agriculture, invasions, and urbanization being significant drivers in hotspots, while hydrological disturbance was an important driver in coldspots. Overall, plant extinctions over the last three centuries appear to be low, with a recent (post-1990) and steady extinction rate of 1.26 extinctions/year.