Escaping the perfect storm of simultaneous climate change impacts on agriculture and marine fisheries

Exploring the relationship between upwelling intensity and socio-ecological attributes of marine exploitation areas for benthic resources (MEABRs), along the southern Humboldt Current system

The Eastern Boundary Upwelling Systems (EBUS) sustains some of the most productive marine systems on Earth. Within each of these systems, the upwelling process exhibits spatial and temporal variation resulting in marked differences in upwelling intensity and seasonality along extensive coastlines. The study of this variation is well needed, given the magnitude of the services provided by upwelling, and the impending impacts of global warming on EBUS. The critical link between the physical variability associated with upwelling intensity and its consequences on socio-ecological variables remain severely understudied. This study aimed to address such a gap by exploring the influence of coastal upwelling intensity on socio-ecological attributes of co-management units named Marine Exploitation Areas for Benthic Resources (MEABRs), along one the most productive ecosystems of the world: The southern Humboldt Current system. We evaluated the non-linear influence of upwelling on 1) the harvest of economically important resources, 2) the number of exploited species, 3) number and gender distribution of fishers involved, and 4) fishery activities. Our data indicated that on the one hand the annual harvest of commercial species, and all the exploited resources combined, were consistently higher in MEABRs associated with intermediate to high upwelling intensities. On the other hand, the harvest of kelp, the number of species harvested, and the number of fishers per MEABR increased towards low upwelling intensities, showing signals of fishery diversification. Interestingly, representation of female fishers increased towards high upwelling intensities, suggesting that multiple factors account for the variation in this, and other socio-ecological variables examined. Our study provides first-hand information about harvest levels and the allocation of fishery activities and gender distribution when MEABRs associated with different upwelling intensities are compared. Such information will assist in the identification of ecological and social vulnerabilities in a global warming scenario.

Downscaled climate change threats to United States freshwater finfish aquaculture

Climate change threatens food production, yet gaps remain in our understanding of these threats to aquaculture, the fastest growing food production subsector. To build climate-resilient practices and policies we need to quantify and map current and future climate threats to aquaculture. Here, we explore how downscaled climate change [SSP 2 (eq. RCP 4.5) and SSP 5 (eq. RCP8.5), CMIP6] threats - including water scarcity, flooding, and increasing temperature - may directly affect United States (US) freshwater farmed fish (N = 7) based on their biological thermal tolerances and indirectly challenge the operations required for production, including to the human workforce. Aquaculture in the US is dominated by catfish, trout, and tilapia production and is widespread, with some form of finfish aquaculture present in every state and nearly half of all counties across the country. Given the current location of catfish, tilapia, bass, and carp in the US and their tolerance to warmer conditions, we find increasing temperatures are less likely to biologically impact these species negatively. In contrast, current trout, sturgeon, and perch production will be biologically threatened by rising temperatures. With respect to operational needs for facilities, increases in 'wet bulb' temperatures in the Southeast will regularly challenge human physiological limits and constrain worker capacity. Drought in the Southwest will also limit an intrinsically water dependent system, affecting nearly all taxa. While current areas of aquaculture will tend to become increasingly challenging for farmed fishes, new potential habitats will open up for nearly all species. Overall, in the absence of immediate greenhouse gas mitigation, there are several non-mutually exclusive climate adaptations, yet these adaptations can be extremely costly. Ultimately, freshwater aquaculture in the US is going to be under intense climate pressure, which may drive out small operations and cause the country to further increase dependence on international aquatic food imports.

Attributing climate-change-related disaster displacement responsibilities along global production chains

Climate change creates hostile living conditions in various regions, provoking climate-driven migration. The literature points to a polarization between the countries responsible for climate change and the regions suffering its consequences. Given this dichotomy, this study analyses the link between unsustainable consumption by world powers and the increasing vulnerability of some developing countries. We identify the most vulnerable countries to climate migrations and perform a responsibility assessment on environmental migration through historical consumption-based contributions to climate change. The main results show that the areas most vulnerable to climate migration are low-income countries from Asia and Africa, whereas the US, China, Japan, and Russia are the major economies responsible for climate change driving those migrations. According to our estimations, top responsible countries should contribute 0.2%-0.5% of their GDP to a global financial fund for climate migrants. This work supports the principle of climate justice regarding worldwide current challenges.

A new framework on climate-induced food-security risk for small-scale fishing communities in Tanzania

Food insecurity is a pressing issue facing our world, particularly affecting coastal communities who rely on marine resources. The problem is further compounded by the rapidly changing climate, a deteriorating environment and growing human populations. It is essential to evaluate this issue accurately to reduce risk and improve the situation of coastal communities, especially in countries with less socioeconomic development. To this end, we develop a food security social-ecological risk assessment framework for developing communities in coastal areas of the Western Indian Ocean facing a changing environment. The framework integrates local ecological knowledge, expert scientific opinion, survey data, and satellite sea surface temperature (SST) and chlorophyll-a observation. We conducted a local-scale case study in four regions in Tanzania; Mafia, Pemba, Tanga, and Unguja, revealing that they face moderate to high risk levels of food insecurity. The highest risk was observed in the island communities of Pemba and Unguja, while the communities of Mafia and Tanga had the lowest risk due to lower exposure and sensitivity to climate change. Our results show that recognizing the key differences across risk components is crucial in identifying effective intervention strategies for local practitioners. This study highlights the need for detailed assessments to provide accurate information on local-scale food security dynamics, specifically when assessing impacts induced by environmental and climatic changes.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s12571-024-01472-x.

Future redistribution of fishery resources suggests biological and economic trade-offs according to the severity of the emission scenario

Climate change is anticipated to have long-term and pervasive effects on marine ecosystems, with cascading consequences to many ocean-reliant sectors. For the marine fisheries sector, these impacts can be further influenced by future socio-economic and political factors. This raises the need for robust projections to capture the range of potential biological and economic risks and opportunities posed by climate change to marine fisheries. Here, we project future changes in the abundance of eight commercially important fish and crab species in the eastern Bering Sea and Chukchi Sea under different CMIP6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) leading to contrasting future (2021-2100) scenarios of warming, sea ice concentration, and net primary production. Our results revealed contrasting patterns of abundance and distribution changes across species, time periods and climate scenarios, highlighting potential winners and losers under future climate change. In particular, the least changes in future species abundance and distribution were observed under SSP126. However, under the extreme scenario (SSP585), projected Pacific cod and snow crab abundances increased and decreased, respectively, with concurrent zonal and meridional future shifts in their centers of gravity. Importantly, projected changes in species abundance suggest that fishing at the same distance from the current major port in the Bering Sea (i.e., Dutch Harbor) could yield declining catches for highly valuable fisheries (e.g., Pacific cod and snow crab) under SSP585. This is driven by strong decreases in future catches of highly valuable species despite minimal declines in maximum catch potential, which are dominated by less valuable taxa. Hence, our findings show that projected changes in abundance and shifting distributions could have important biological and economic impacts on the productivity of commercial and subsistence fisheries in the eastern Bering and Chukchi seas, with potential implications for the effective management of transboundary resources.

Operationalizing a fisheries social-ecological system through a Bayesian belief network reveals hotspots for its adaptive capacity in the southern North sea

Fisheries social-ecological systems (SES) in the North Sea region confront multifaceted challenges stemming from environmental changes, offshore wind farm expansion, and marine protected area establishment. In this paper, we demonstrate the utility of a Bayesian Belief Network (BN) approach in comprehensively capturing and assessing the intricate spatial dynamics within the German plaice-related fisheries SES. The BN integrates ecological, economic, and socio-cultural factors to generate high-resolution maps of profitability and adaptive capacity potential (ACP) as prospective management targets. Our analysis of future scenarios, delineating changes in spatial constraints, economics, and socio-cultural aspects, identifies factors that will exert significant influence on this fisheries SES in the near future. These include the loss of fishing grounds due to the installation of offshore wind farms and marine protected areas, as well as reduced plaice landings due to climate change. The identified ACP hotspots hold the potential to guide the development of localized management strategies and sustainable planning efforts by highlighting the consequences of management decisions. Our findings emphasize the need to consider detailed spatial dynamics of fisheries SES within marine spatial planning (MSP) and illustrate how this information may assist decision-makers and practitioners in area prioritization. We, therefore, propose adopting the concept of fisheries SES within broader integrated management approaches to foster sustainable development of inherently dynamic SES in a rapidly evolving marine environment.

Changes in sea floor productivity are crucial to understanding the impact of climate change in temperate coastal ecosystems according to a new size-based model

The multifaceted effects of climate change on physical and biogeochemical processes are rapidly altering marine ecosystems but often are considered in isolation, leaving our understanding of interactions between these drivers of ecosystem change relatively poor. This is particularly true for shallow coastal ecosystems, which are fuelled by a combination of distinct pelagic and benthic energy pathways that may respond to climate change in fundamentally distinct ways. The fish production supported by these systems is likely to be impacted by climate change differently to those of offshore and shelf ecosystems, which have relatively simpler food webs and mostly lack benthic primary production sources. We developed a novel, multispecies size spectrum model for shallow coastal reefs, specifically designed to simulate potential interactive outcomes of changing benthic and pelagic energy inputs and temperatures and calculate the relative importance of these variables for the fish community. Our model, calibrated using field data from an extensive temperate reef monitoring program, predicts that changes in resource levels will have much stronger impacts on fish biomass and yields than changes driven by physiological responses to temperature. Under increased plankton abundance, species in all fish trophic groups were predicted to increase in biomass, average size, and yields. By contrast, changes in benthic resources produced variable responses across fish trophic groups. Increased benthic resources led to increasing benthivorous and piscivorous fish biomasses, yields, and mean body sizes, but biomass decreases among herbivore and planktivore species. When resource changes were combined with warming seas, physiological responses generally decreased species' biomass and yields. Our results suggest that understanding changes in benthic production and its implications for coastal fisheries should be a priority research area. Our modified size spectrum model provides a framework for further study of benthic and pelagic energy pathways that can be easily adapted to other ecosystems.

DNA barcoding the ichthyofauna of the Beibu Gulf: Implications for fisheries management in a seafood market hub

The Beibu Gulf in China is situated in the tropics, in the western Pacific Ocean. It is an emblematic region combining proximity to a marine biodiversity hotspot and a major seafood hub. Intensification of marine fishing and ocean warming led to a drastic decline in fish populations in the Beibu Gulf during the last decades. This situation urges the development of molecular resources of the Beibu Gulf fish fauna in order to enable automated molecular identifications at the species level for next-generation monitoring. With this objective, we present the results of a large-scale campaign to DNA barcode fishes of the Beibu Gulf. We successfully generated 789 new DNA barcodes corresponding to 263 species which, together with 291 sequences mined from Genbank and BOLD, resulted in a reference library of 1080 sequences from 285 species. Based on the use of four DNA-based species delimitation methods (BIN, ASAP, mPTP, mGMYC), a total of 285 Molecular Operational Taxonomical Units (MOTUs). A single case of cryptic diversity was detected in Scomberomorus guttatus and a single species pair was not captured by delimitation methods. Intraspecific K2P genetic distances averaged 0.36% among sequences within species, whereas K2P genetic distances among species within genera averaged 6.96%. The most speciose families in open water trawling differ from those at fish market, and discrepancies with historical data are discussed in the light of recently documented stock collapses.

Impacts of seasonal temperatures, ocean warming and marine heatwaves on the nutritional quality of eastern school prawns (Metapenaeus macleayi)

Ocean warming and marine heatwaves significantly alter environmental conditions in marine and estuarine environments. Despite their potential global importance for nutrient security and human health, it is not well understood how thermal impacts could alter the nutritional quality of harvested marine resources. We tested whether short-term experimental exposure to seasonal temperatures, projected ocean-warming temperatures, and marine heatwaves affected the nutritional quality of the eastern school prawn (Metapenaeus macleayi). In addition, we tested whether nutritional quality was affected by the duration of exposure to warm temperatures. We show the nutritional quality of M. macleayi is likely to be resilient to short- (28 d), but not longer-term (56 d) exposure to warming temperatures. The proximate, fatty acid and metabolite compositions of M. macleayi were unchanged after 28 d exposure to simulated ocean warming and marine heatwaves. The ocean-warming scenario did, however, show potential for elevated sulphur, iron and silver levels after 28 d. Decreasing saturation of fatty acids in M. macleayi after 28 d exposure to cooler temperatures indicates homeoviscous adaptation to seasonal changes. We found that 11 % of measured response variables were significantly different between 28 and 56 d when exposed to the same treatment, indicating the duration of exposure time and time of sampling are critical when measuring this species' nutritional response. Further, we found that future acute warming events could reduce harvestable biomass, despite survivors retaining their nutritional quality. Developing a combined knowledge of the variability in seafood nutrient content with shifts in the availability of harvested seafood is crucial for understanding seafood-derived nutrient security in a changing climate.

Molecular dynamics of seed priming at the crossroads between basic and applied research

The potential of seed priming is still not fully exploited. Our limited knowledge of the molecular dynamics of seed pre-germinative metabolism is the main hindrance to more effective new-generation techniques. Climate change and other recent global crises are disrupting food security. To cope with the current demand for increased food, feed, and biofuel production, while preserving sustainability, continuous technological innovation should be provided to the agri-food sector. Seed priming, a pre-sowing technique used to increase seed vigor, has become a valuable tool due to its potential to enhance germination and stress resilience under changing environments. Successful priming protocols result from the ability to properly act on the seed pre-germinative metabolism and stimulate events that are crucial for seed quality. However, the technique still requires constant optimization, and researchers are committed to addressing some key open questions to overcome such drawbacks. In this review, an update of the current scientific and technical knowledge related to seed priming is provided. The rehydration-dehydration cycle associated with priming treatments can be described in terms of metabolic pathways that are triggered, modulated, or turned off, depending on the seed physiological stage. Understanding the ways seed priming affects, either positively or negatively, such metabolic pathways and impacts gene expression and protein/metabolite accumulation/depletion represents an essential step toward the identification of novel seed quality hallmarks. The need to expand the basic knowledge on the molecular mechanisms ruling the seed response to priming is underlined along with the strong potential of applied research on primed seeds as a source of seed quality hallmarks. This route will hasten the implementation of seed priming techniques needed to support sustainable agriculture systems.

Climate risks to fishing species and fisheries in the China Seas

Climate change is one of the most concerning topics in the Anthropocene. Increasing sea water temperature will trigger a series of ecological consequences, altering the various functions and services that marine ecosystems provide for humans. Fisheries, specifically, will likely face the most direct impact. China provides unparalleled catches with enormous and intensive fishing effort, and China Seas are suffering from significantly increasing water temperature. However, uncertainties in the impacts of climate change on fishing species and fisheries in the China Seas present challenges for the formulation of coping and adapting strategies. Here, we employed a climate risk assessment framework to evaluate the climate risks of fishing species and fisheries of various provinces in China in the past decade, aiming to benefit the development and prioritization of appropriate adaptation options to climate change. Results show that considering the water temperature in the 2010s, 20 % of fishing species in the China Seas have one-fourth of their habitats unsuitable, and the situation will become worse with future warming scenarios in the 2050s when nearly half of species will have at least one-fourth of their habitats no longer suitable. Integrating hazard, exposure and vulnerability, climate risks to fisheries feature heterogeneity among provinces. Climate risks to fisheries of northern provinces are characterized by low hazard and high exposure, while the southern counterparts are largely determined by high hazard and low exposure. Climate change is threatening fishing species and remarkably altering fishery patterns in China Seas. Shifting fishing targets, increasing fishing efficiency, raising catch diversity, and updating fishery-related industries would be effective steps to help fisheries adapt to climate change, and adaptation strategies need to be tailored considering local realities.

Brassica napus Roots Use Different Strategies to Respond to Warm Temperatures

Elevated growth temperatures are negatively affecting crop productivity by increasing yield losses. The modulation of root traits associated with improved response to rising temperatures is a promising approach to generate new varieties better suited to face the environmental constraints caused by climate change. In this study, we identified several Brassica napus root traits altered in response to warm ambient temperatures. Different combinations of changes in specific root traits result in an extended and deeper root system. This overall root growth expansion facilitates root response by maximizing root-soil surface interaction and increasing roots' ability to explore extended soil areas. We associated these traits with coordinated cellular events, including changes in cell division and elongation rates that drive root growth increases triggered by warm temperatures. Comparative transcriptomic analysis revealed the main genetic determinants of these root system architecture (RSA) changes and uncovered the necessity of a tight regulation of the heat-shock stress response to adjusting root growth to warm temperatures. Our work provides a phenotypic, cellular, and genetic framework of root response to warming temperatures that will help to harness root response mechanisms for crop yield improvement under the future climatic scenario.

Safeguarding nutrients from coral reefs under climate change

The sustainability of coral reef fisheries is jeopardized by complex and interacting socio-ecological stressors that undermine their contribution to food and nutrition security. Climate change has emerged as one of the key stressors threatening coral reefs and their fish-associated services. How fish nutrient concentrations respond to warming oceans remains unclear but these responses are probably affected by both direct (metabolism and trophodynamics) and indirect (habitat and species range shifts) effects. Climate-driven coral habitat loss can cause changes in fish abundance and biomass, revealing potential winners and losers among major fisheries targets that can be predicted using ecological indicators and biological traits. A critical next step is to extend research focused on the quantity of available food (fish biomass) to also consider its nutritional quality, which is relevant to progress in the fields of food security and malnutrition. Biological traits are robust predictors of fish nutrient content and thus potentially indicate how climate-driven changes are expected to impact nutrient availability within future food webs on coral reefs. Here, we outline future research priorities and an anticipatory framework towards sustainable reef fisheries contributing to nutrition-sensitive food systems in a warming ocean.

The impact of climate variables on marine fish production: an empirical evidence from Bangladesh based on autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) approach

Several studies have highlighted the significant impact of climate change on agriculture. However, there have been little empirical enquiries into the impact of climate change on marine fish production, particularly in Bangladesh. Hence, this study aims to investigate the impact of climate change on marine fish production in Bangladesh using data from 1961 to 2019. Data were obtained from the Food and Agriculture Organization, Bangladesh Meteorological Department, the World Development Indicators, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model was used to describe the dynamic link between CO₂ emissions, average temperature, Sea Surface Temperature (SST), rainfall, sunshine, wind and marine fish production. The ARDL approach to cointegration revealed that SST (β = 0.258), rainfall (β =0.297), and sunshine (β =0.663) significantly influence marine fish production at 1% and 10% levels in the short run and at 1% level in the long run. The results also found that average temperature has a significant negative impact on fish production in both short and long runs. On the other hand, CO₂ emissions have a negative impact on marine fish production in the short run. Specifically, for every 1% rise in CO₂ emissions, marine fish production will decline by 0.11%. The findings of this study suggest that policymakers formulate better policy frameworks for climate change adaptation and sustainable management of marine fisheries at the national level. Research and development in Bangladesh's fisheries sector should also focus on marine fish species that can resist high sea surface temperatures, CO₂ emissions, and average temperatures.

Rebuilding fish biomass for the world's marine ecoregions under climate change

Rebuilding overexploited marine populations is an important step to achieve the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goal 14-Life Below Water. Mitigating major human pressures is required to achieve rebuilding goals. Climate change is one such key pressure, impacting fish and invertebrate populations by changing their biomass and biogeography. Here, combining projection from a dynamic bioclimate envelope model with published estimates of status of exploited populations from a catch-based analysis, we analyze the effects of different global warming and fishing levels on biomass rebuilding for the exploited species in 226 marine ecoregions of the world. Fifty three percent (121) of the marine ecoregions have significant (at 5% level) relationship between biomass and global warming level. Without climate change and under a target fishing mortality rate relative to the level required for maximum sustainable yield of 0.75, we project biomass rebuilding of 1.7-2.7 times (interquartile range) of current (average 2014-2018) levels across marine ecoregions. When global warming level is at 1.5 and 2.6°C, respectively, such biomass rebuilding drops to 1.4-2.0 and 1.1-1.5 times of current levels, with 10% and 25% of the ecoregions showing no biomass rebuilding, respectively. Marine ecoregions where biomass rebuilding is largely impacted by climate change are in West Africa, the Indo-Pacific, the central and south Pacific, and the Eastern Tropical Pacific. Coastal communities in these ecoregions are highly dependent on fisheries for livelihoods and nutrition security. Lowering the targeted fishing level and keeping global warming below 1.5°C are projected to enable more climate-sensitive ecoregions to rebuild biomass. However, our findings also underscore the need to resolve trade-offs between climate-resilient biomass rebuilding and the high near-term demand for seafood to support the well-being of coastal communities across the tropics.

Research priorities for global food security under extreme events

Extreme events, such as those caused by climate change, economic or geopolitical shocks, and pest or disease epidemics, threaten global food security. The complexity of causation, as well as the myriad ways that an event, or a sequence of events, creates cascading and systemic impacts, poses significant challenges to food systems research and policy alike. To identify priority food security risks and research opportunities, we asked experts from a range of fields and geographies to describe key threats to global food security over the next two decades and to suggest key research questions and gaps on this topic. Here, we present a prioritization of threats to global food security from extreme events, as well as emerging research questions that highlight the conceptual and practical challenges that exist in designing, adopting, and governing resilient food systems. We hope that these findings help in directing research funding and resources toward food system transformations needed to help society tackle major food system risks and food insecurity under extreme events.

Potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, especially below national scales, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys of 3,008 households and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries (Indonesia, Madagascar, Papua New Guinea, Philippines, and Tanzania). Our study reveals three key findings: First, overall potential losses to fisheries are higher than potential losses to agriculture. Second, while most locations (> 2/3) will experience potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, climate change mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing that double burden. Third, potential impacts are more likely in communities with lower socioeconomic status.

Distinct early life stage gene expression effects of hybridization among European and North American farmed and wild Atlantic salmon populations

Due to multi-generation domestication selection, farmed and wild Atlantic salmon diverge genetically, which raises concerns about potential genetic interactions among escaped farmed and wild populations and disruption of local adaptation through introgression. When farmed strains of distant geographic origin are used, it is unknown whether the genetic consequences posed by escaped farmed fish will be greater than if more locally derived strains are used. Quantifying gene transcript expression differences among divergent farmed, wild and F₁ hybrids under controlled conditions is one of the ways to explore the consequences of hybridization. We compared the transcriptomes of fry at the end of yolk sac absorption of a European (EO) farmed ("StofnFiskur", Norwegian strain), a North American (NA) farmed (Saint John River, NB strain), a Newfoundland (NF) wild population with EO ancestry, and related F₁ hybrids using 44K microarrays. Our findings indicate that the wild population showed greater transcriptome differences from the EO farmed strain than that of the NA farmed strain. We also found the largest differences in global gene expression between the two farmed strains. We detected the fewest differentially expressed transcripts between F₁ hybrids and domesticated/wild maternal strains. We also found that the differentially expressed genes between cross types over-represented GO terms associated with metabolism, development, growth, immune response, and redox homeostasis processes. These findings suggest that the interbreeding of escaped EO/NA farmed and NF wild population would alter gene transcription, and the consequences of hybridization would be greater from escaped EO farmed than NA farmed salmon, resulting in potential effects on the wild populations.

The contribution of fisheries and aquaculture to the global protein supply

The contribution of aquatic animal protein to the global, animal-source protein supply and the relative importance of aquaculture to capture fisheries in supplying this protein is relevant in assessments and decisions related to the future of aquatic food production and its security. Meat of terrestrial animals, milk, and eggs resulted in 76,966 Kt crude protein compared with 13,950 Kt or 15.3% from aquatic animals in 2018.While aquaculture produced a greater tonnage of aquatic animals, capture fisheries resulted in 7,135 Kt crude protein while aquaculture yielded 6,815 Kt. Capture fisheries production has not increased in the past two decades, and aquaculture production must increase to assure the growing demand for fisheries products by a larger and more affluent population. We estimated based on status quo consumption, that aquaculture production would need to increase from 82,087 Kt in 2018 to 129,000 Kt by 2050 to meet the demand of the greater population. About two-thirds of finfish and crustacean production by aquaculture is feed-based, and feeds for these species include fishmeal and fish oil as ingredients. Aquaculture feeds require a major portion of the global supply of fishmeal and fish oil. An estimated 71.0% of fishmeal and 73.9% of fish oil are made from the catch with the rest coming from aquatic animal processing waste. The catch of small, pelagic fish from the ocean is not predicted to increase in the future. Aquaculture should reduce its fishmeal and oil use to lessen its dependency on small wild fish important to the integrity of marine food webs and food security for the poor in many coastal areas. Fishmeal and fish oil shortages for use in aquaculture feed will result in a limit on production in the future if goals to lessen their use in feeds are not met.

Over half of known human pathogenic diseases can be aggravated by climate change

It is relatively well accepted that climate change can affect human pathogenic diseases; however, the full extent of this risk remains poorly quantified. Here we carried out a systematic search for empirical examples about the impacts of ten climatic hazards sensitive to greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions on each known human pathogenic disease. We found that 58% (that is, 218 out of 375) of infectious diseases confronted by humanity worldwide have been at some point aggravated by climatic hazards; 16% were at times diminished. Empirical cases revealed 1,006 unique pathways in which climatic hazards, via different transmission types, led to pathogenic diseases. The human pathogenic diseases and transmission pathways aggravated by climatic hazards are too numerous for comprehensive societal adaptations, highlighting the urgent need to work at the source of the problem: reducing GHG emissions.

Intergrading reef communities across discrete seaweed habitats in a temperate-tropical transition zone: Lessons for species reshuffling in a warming ocean

Temperate reefs are increasingly affected by the direct and indirect effects of climate change. At many of their warm range edges, cool-water kelps are decreasing, while seaweeds with warm-water affinities are increasing. These habitat-forming species provide different ecological functions, and shifts to warm-affinity seaweeds are expected to modify the structure of associated communities. Predicting the nature of such shifts at the ecosystem level is, however, challenging, as they often occur gradually over large geographical areas. Here, we take advantage of a climatic transition zone, where cool-affinity (kelp) and warm-affinity (Sargassum) seaweed forests occur adjacently under similar environmental conditions, to test whether these seaweed habitats support different associated seaweed, invertebrate, coral, and fish assemblages. We found clear differences in associated seaweed assemblages between habitats characterized by kelp and Sargassum abundance, with kelp having higher biomass and seaweed diversity and more cool-affinity species than Sargassum habitats. The multivariate invertebrate and fish assemblages were not different between habitats, despite a higher diversity of fish species in the Sargassum habitat. No pattern in temperature affinity of the invertebrate or fish assemblages in each habitat was found, and few fish species were exclusive to one habitat or the other. These findings suggest that, as ocean warming continues to replace kelps with Sargassum, the abundance and diversity of associated seaweeds could decrease, whereas fish could increase. Nevertheless, the more tropicalized seaweed habitats may provide a degree of functional redundancy to associated fauna in temperate seaweed habitats.

Contrasted patterns in climate change risk for Mediterranean fisheries

Climate change is rapidly becoming one of the biggest threats to marine life, and its impacts have the potential to strongly affect fisheries upon which millions of people rely. This is particularly crucial for the Mediterranean Sea, which is one of the world's biodiversity hotspots, one of the world's most overfished regions, and where temperatures are rising 25% faster than in the rest of the ocean on average. In this study, we calculated a vulnerability index for 100 species that compose 95% of the Mediterranean catches, through a trait-based approach. The Climate Risk Assessment (CRA) methodology was subsequently used to assess the risks due to climate change of Mediterranean fisheries. We found that the northern Mediterranean fisheries target more vulnerable species than their southern counterparts. However, when combining this catch-based vulnerability with a suite of socio-economic parameters, north African countries stand out as the most vulnerable to climate change impacts. Indeed, considering countries' exposure of the fisheries sector and their vulnerability to climate change, a sharp contrast between northern and southern Mediterranean appears, with Egypt and Tunisia scoring the highest risk. By integrating a trait-based approach on targeted marine species with socio-economic features, our analysis helps to better understand the ramifications of climate change consequences on Mediterranean fisheries and highlights the regions that could potentially be particularly affected.

Spatial subsidies drive sweet spots of tropical marine biomass production

Spatial subsidies increase local productivity and boost consumer abundance beyond the limits imposed by local resources. In marine ecosystems, deeper water and open ocean subsidies promote animal aggregations and enhance biomass that is critical for human harvesting. However, the scale of this phenomenon in tropical marine systems remains unknown. Here, we integrate a detailed assessment of biomass production in 3 key locations, spanning a major biodiversity and abundance gradient, with an ocean-scale dataset of fish counts to predict the extent and magnitude of plankton subsidies to fishes on coral reefs. We show that planktivorous fish-mediated spatial subsidies are widespread across the Indian and Pacific oceans and drive local spikes in biomass production that can lead to extreme productivity, up to 30 kg ha-1 day-1. Plankton subsidies form the basis of productivity "sweet spots" where planktivores provide more than 50% of the total fish production, more than all other trophic groups combined. These sweet spots operate at regional, site, and smaller local scales. By harvesting oceanic productivity, planktivores bypass spatial constraints imposed by local primary productivity, creating "oases" of tropical fish biomass that are accessible to humans.

World scientists' warnings into action, local to global

'We have kicked the can down the road once again - but we are running out of road.' - Rachel Kyte, Dean of Fletcher School at Tufts University.We, in our capacities as scientists, economists, governance and policy specialists, are shifting from warnings to guidance for action before there is no more 'road.' The science is clear and irrefutable; humanity is in advanced ecological overshoot. Our overexploitation of resources exceeds ecosystems' capacity to provide them or to absorb our waste. Society has failed to meet clearly stated goals of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change. Civilization faces an epochal crossroads, but with potentially much better, wiser outcomes if we act now.What are the concrete and transformative actions by which we can turn away from the abyss? In this paper we forcefully recommend priority actions and resource allocation to avert the worst of the climate and nature emergencies, two of the most pressing symptoms of overshoot, and lead society into a future of greater wellbeing and wisdom. Humanity has begun the social, economic, political and technological initiatives needed for this transformation. Now, massive upscaling and acceleration of these actions and collaborations are essential before irreversible tipping points are crossed in the coming decade. We still can overcome significant societal, political and economic barriers of our own making.Previously, we identified six core areas for urgent global action - energy, pollutants, nature, food systems, population stabilization and economic goals. Here we identify an indicative, systemic and time-limited framework for priority actions for policy, planning and management at multiple scales from household to global. We broadly follow the 'Reduce-Remove-Repair' approach to rapid action. To guide decision makers, planners, managers, and budgeters, we cite some of the many experiments, mechanisms and resources in order to facilitate rapid global adoption of effective solutions.Our biggest challenges are not technical, but social, economic, political and behavioral. To have hope of success, we must accelerate collaborative actions across scales, in different cultures and governance systems, while maintaining adequate social, economic and political stability. Effective and timely actions are still achievable on many, though not all fronts. Such change will mean the difference for billions of children and adults, hundreds of thousands of species, health of many ecosystems, and will determine our common future.

Assessing social-ecological vulnerability of coastal systems to fishing and tourism

Detecting areas with high social-ecological vulnerability (SEV) is essential to better inform management interventions for building resilience in coastal systems. The SEV framework, developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, is a robust method to identify SEV of tropical coastal systems to climate change. Yet, the application of this framework to temperate regions and other drivers of change remains underexplored. This study operationalizes the SEV framework to assess the social-ecological implications of fishing and tourism in temperate coastal systems. We spatially represented the SEV of coastal systems and identified the social and ecological vulnerability dimensions underpinning this SEV. Our results demonstrate that different dimensions contribute differently to the SEV, suggesting the need for distinctive management intervention to reduce the vulnerability of coastal systems. Our findings also highlight that livelihood diversification and the protection of marine areas may be plausible strategies to build resilience in temperate coastal systems that face fishing and tourism pressures. With this study, we hope to encourage the application of the SEV framework to other drivers of change for building more resilient coastal systems.

Evolving the narrative for protecting a rapidly changing ocean, post-COVID-19

The ocean is the linchpin supporting life on Earth, but it is in declining health due to an increasing footprint of human use and climate change. Despite notable successes in helping to protect the ocean, the scale of actions is simply not now meeting the overriding scale and nature of the ocean's problems that confront us.Moving into a post-COVID-19 world, new policy decisions will need to be made. Some, especially those developed prior to the pandemic, will require changes to their trajectories; others will emerge as a response to this global event. Reconnecting with nature, and specifically with the ocean, will take more than good intent and wishful thinking. Words, and how we express our connection to the ocean, clearly matter now more than ever before.The evolution of the ocean narrative, aimed at preserving and expanding options and opportunities for future generations and a healthier planet, is articulated around six themes: (1) all life is dependent on the ocean; (2) by harming the ocean, we harm ourselves; (3) by protecting the ocean, we protect ourselves; (4) humans, the ocean, biodiversity, and climate are inextricably linked; (5) ocean and climate action must be undertaken together; and (6) reversing ocean change needs action now.This narrative adopts a 'One Health' approach to protecting the ocean, addressing the whole Earth ocean system for better and more equitable social, cultural, economic, and environmental outcomes at its core. Speaking with one voice through a narrative that captures the latest science, concerns, and linkages to humanity is a precondition to action, by elevating humankind's understanding of our relationship with 'planet Ocean' and why it needs to become a central theme to everyone's lives. We have only one ocean, we must protect it, now. There is no 'Ocean B'.

Exploring the vertebrate fauna of the Bird's Head Peninsula (Indonesia, West Papua) through DNA barcodes

Biodiversity knowledge is widely heterogeneous across the Earth's biomes. Some areas, due to their remoteness and difficult access, present large taxonomic knowledge gaps. Mostly located in the tropics, these areas have frequently experienced a fast development of anthropogenic activities during the last decades and are therefore of high conservation concerns. The biodiversity hotspots of Southeast Asia exemplify the stakes faced by tropical countries. While the hotspots of Sundaland (Java, Sumatra, Borneo) and Wallacea (Sulawesi, Moluccas) have long attracted the attention of biologists and conservationists alike, extensive parts of the Sahul area, in particular the island of New Guinea, have been much less explored biologically. Here, we describe the results of a DNA-based inventory of aquatic and terrestrial vertebrate communities, which was the objective of a multidisciplinary expedition to the Bird's Head Peninsula (West Papua, Indonesia) conducted between 17 October and 20 November 2014. This expedition resulted in the assembly of 1005 vertebrate DNA barcodes. Based on the use of multiple species-delimitation methods (GMYC, PTP, RESL, ABGD), 264 molecular operational taxonomic units (MOTUs) were delineated, among which 75 were unidentified and an additional 48 were considered cryptic. This study suggests that the diversity of vertebrates of the Bird's Head is severely underestimated and considerations on the evolutionary origin and taxonomic knowledge of these biotas are discussed.

Proceedings of the 7th Series of Seminars on Advances in Apomixis Research

These proceedings contain the abstracts for the presentations given at the 7th biennial Seminars on Advances in Apomixis Research, held virtually on 2-3 and 9 December 2020. The first day hosted the kick-off meeting of the EU-funded Mechanisms of Apomictic Development (MAD) project, while the remaining days were dedicated to oral presentations and in-depth exchanges on the latest progress in the field of apomixis and plant reproductive biology research.

Trading water: virtual water flows through interstate cereal trade in India

Cereals are an important component of the Indian diet, providing 47% of the daily dietary energy intake. Dwindling groundwater reserves in India especially in major cereal-growing regions are an increasing challenge to national food supply. An improved understanding of interstate cereal trade can help to identify potential risks to national food security. Here, we quantify the trade between Indian states of five major cereals and the associated trade in virtual (or embedded) water. To do this, we modelled interstate trade of cereals using Indian government data on supply and demand; calculated virtual water use of domestic cereal production using state- and product-specific water footprints and state-level data on irrigation source; and incorporated virtual water used in the production of internationally-imported cereals using country-specific water footprints. We estimate that 40% (94 million tonnes) of total cereal food supply was traded between Indian states in 2011-12, corresponding to a trade of 54.0 km3 of embedded blue water, and 99.4 km3 of embedded green water. Of the cereals traded within India, 41% were produced in states with over-exploited groundwater reserves (defined according to the Central Ground Water Board) and a further 21% in states with critically depleting groundwater reserves. Our analysis indicates a high dependency of Indian cereal consumption on production in states with stressed groundwater reserves. Substantial changes in agricultural practices and land use may be required to secure future production, trade and availability of cereals in India. Diversifying production systems could increase the resilience of India's food system.

Root Growth Adaptation to Climate Change in Crops

Climate change is threatening crop productivity worldwide and new solutions to adapt crops to these environmental changes are urgently needed. Elevated temperatures driven by climate change affect developmental and physiological plant processes that, ultimately, impact on crop yield and quality. Plant roots are responsible for water and nutrients uptake, but changes in soil temperatures alters this process limiting crop growth. With the predicted variable climatic forecast, the development of an efficient root system better adapted to changing soil and environmental conditions is crucial for enhancing crop productivity. Root traits associated with improved adaptation to rising temperatures are increasingly being analyzed to obtain more suitable crop varieties. In this review, we will summarize the current knowledge about the effect of increasing temperatures on root growth and their impact on crop yield. First, we will describe the main alterations in root architecture that different crops undergo in response to warmer soils. Then, we will outline the main coordinated physiological and metabolic changes taking place in roots and aerial parts that modulate the global response of the plant to increased temperatures. We will discuss on some of the main regulatory mechanisms controlling root adaptation to warmer soils, including the activation of heat and oxidative pathways to prevent damage of root cells and disruption of root growth; the interplay between hormonal regulatory pathways and the global changes on gene expression and protein homeostasis. We will also consider that in the field, increasing temperatures are usually associated with other abiotic and biotic stresses such as drought, salinity, nutrient deficiencies, and pathogen infections. We will present recent advances on how the root system is able to integrate and respond to complex and different stimuli in order to adapt to an increasingly changing environment. Finally, we will discuss the new prospects and challenges in this field as well as the more promising pathways for future research.