A multimillennial climatic context for the megafaunal extinctions in Madagascar and Mascarene Islands

Zonal control on Holocene precipitation in northwestern Madagascar based on a stalagmite from Anjohibe

The Malagasy Summer Monsoon is an important part of the larger Indian Ocean and tropical monsoon region. As the effects of global warming play out, changes to precipitation in Madagascar will have important ramifications for the Malagasy people. To help understand how precipitation responds to climate changes we present a long-term Holocene speleothem record from Anjohibe, part of the Andranoboka cave system in northwestern Madagascar. To date, it is the most complete Holocene record from this region and sheds light on the nature of millennial and centennial precipitation changes in this region. We find that over the Holocene, precipitation in northwestern Madagascar is actually in phase with the Northern Hemisphere Asian monsoon on multi-millennial scales, but that during some shorter centennial-scale events such as the 8.2 ka event, Anjohibe exhibits an antiphase precipitation signal to the Northern Hemisphere. The ultimate driver of precipitation changes across the Holocene does not appear to be the meridional migration of the monsoon. Instead, zonal sea surface temperature gradients in the Indian Ocean seem to play a primary role in precipitation changes in northwestern Madagascar.

Past volcanic activity predisposes an endemic threatened seabird to negative anthropogenic impacts

Humans are regularly cited as the main driver of current biodiversity extinction, but the impact of historic volcanic activity is often overlooked. Pre-human evidence of wildlife abundance and diversity are essential for disentangling anthropogenic impacts from natural events. Réunion Island, with its intense and well-documented volcanic activity, endemic biodiversity, long history of isolation and recent human colonization, provides an opportunity to disentangle these processes. We track past demographic changes of a critically endangered seabird, the Mascarene petrel Pseudobulweria aterrima, using genome-wide SNPs. Coalescent modeling suggested that a large ancestral population underwent a substantial population decline in two distinct phases, ca. 125,000 and 37,000 years ago, coinciding with periods of major eruptions of Piton des Neiges. Subsequently, the ancestral population was fragmented into the two known colonies, ca. 1500 years ago, following eruptions of Piton de la Fournaise. In the last century, both colonies declined significantly due to anthropogenic activities, and although the species was initially considered extinct, it was rediscovered in the 1970s. Our findings suggest that the current conservation status of wildlife on volcanic islands should be firstly assessed as a legacy of historic volcanic activity, and thereafter by the increasing anthropogenic impacts, which may ultimately drive species towards extinction.

The loss of biodiversity in Madagascar is contemporaneous with major demographic events

Only 400 km off the coast of East Africa, the island of Madagascar is one of the last large land masses to have been colonized by humans. While many questions surround the human occupation of Madagascar, recent studies raise the question of human impact on endemic biodiversity and landscape transformation. Previous genetic and linguistic analyses have shown that the Malagasy population has emerged from an admixture that happened during the last millennium, between Bantu-speaking African populations and Austronesian-speaking Asian populations. By studying the sharing of chromosome segments between individuals (IBD determination), local ancestry information, and simulated genetic data, we inferred that the Malagasy ancestral Asian population was isolated for more than 1,000 years with an effective size of just a few hundred individuals. This isolation ended around 1,000 years before present (BP) by admixture with a small African population. Around the admixture time, there was a rapid demographic expansion due to intrinsic population growth of the newly admixed population, which coincides with extensive changes in Madagascar's landscape and the extinction of all endemic large-bodied vertebrates. Therefore, our approach can provide new insights into past human demography and associated impacts on ecosystems.

Cutmarked bone of drought-tolerant extinct megafauna deposited with traces of fire, human foraging, and introduced animals in SW Madagascar

People could have hunted Madagascar's megafauna to extinction, particularly when introduced taxa and drought exacerbated the effects of predation. However, such explanations are difficult to test due to the scarcity of individual sites with unambiguous traces of humans, introduced taxa, and endemic megaherbivores. We excavated three coastal ponds in arid SW Madagascar and present a unique combination of traces of human activity (modified pygmy hippo bone, processed estuarine shell and fish bone, and charcoal), along with bones of extinct megafauna (giant tortoises, pygmy hippos, and elephant birds), extirpated fauna (e.g., crocodiles), and introduced vertebrates (e.g., zebu cattle). The disappearance of megafauna from the study sites at ~ 1000 years ago followed a relatively arid interval and closely coincides with increasingly frequent traces of human foraging, fire, and pastoralism. Our analyses fail to document drought-associated extirpation or multiple millennia of megafauna hunting and suggest that a late combination of hunting, forest clearance, and pastoralism drove extirpations.

Global importance of Indigenous Peoples, their lands, and knowledge systems for saving the world's primates from extinction

Primates, represented by 521 species, are distributed across 91 countries primarily in the Neotropic, Afrotropic, and Indo-Malayan realms. Primates inhabit a wide range of habitats and play critical roles in sustaining healthy ecosystems that benefit human and nonhuman communities. Approximately 68% of primate species are threatened with extinction because of global pressures to convert their habitats for agricultural production and the extraction of natural resources. Here, we review the scientific literature and conduct a spatial analysis to assess the significance of Indigenous Peoples' lands in safeguarding primate biodiversity. We found that Indigenous Peoples' lands account for 30% of the primate range, and 71% of primate species inhabit these lands. As their range on these lands increases, primate species are less likely to be classified as threatened or have declining populations. Safeguarding Indigenous Peoples' lands, languages, and cultures represents our greatest chance to prevent the extinction of the world's primates.

Tipping points induced by palaeo-human impacts can explain presence of savannah in Malagasy and global systems where forest is expected

Models aimed at understanding C₄-savannah distribution for Australia, Africa and South America support transition to forest at high mean annual precipitation (MAP), and savannah grasslands of Madagascar have recently been reported to be similarly limited. Yet, when savannah/grassland presence data are plotted against MAP for the various ecosystems across the Malagasy Central Highlands, the relationship does not hold. Furthermore, it does not always hold in other sites on other continents. Instead, in high-rainfall savannahs, palaeo-human impacts appear to have selected a fire-adapted habitat, creating tipping points that allow savannah persistence despite high rainfall, suppressing forest return. We conducted the largest systematic literature review to date for global evidence of palaeo-human impacts in savannahs, and conclude that impacts are widespread and should be incorporated into models aimed at understanding savannah persistence at elevated precipitation, particularly as more palaeodata emerges. Building on existing studies, we refine the MAP savannah relationship at higher MAP. Palaeoanthropogenic impact can help explain inconsistencies in the savannah/forest boundary at higher MAP, and points to a key role for palaeoecology in understanding systems. Including these effects presents a crucial change to our understanding of factors determining global savannah distribution, supporting a human hand in much of their formation.

Rain Forest Fragmentation and Environmental Dynamics on Nosy Be Island (NW Madagascar) at 1300 cal BP Is Attributable to Intensified Human Impact

Madagascar houses one of the Earth’s biologically richest, but also one of most endangered, terrestrial ecoregions. Although it is obvious that humans substantially altered the natural ecosystems during the past decades, the timing of arrival of early inhabitants on Madagascar as well as their environmental impact is still intensively debated. This research aims to study the beginning of early human impact on Malagasy natural ecosystems, specifically on Nosy Be island (NW Madagascar) by targeting the sedimentary archive of Lake Amparihibe, an ancient volcanic crater. Based on pollen, fungal spore, other non-pollen palynomorph, charcoal particle and diatom analyses combined with high-resolution sediment-physical and (in)organic geochemical data, paleoenvironmental dynamics during the past three millennia were reconstructed. Results indicate a major environmental change at ca. 1300 cal BP characterized by an abrupt development of grass (C4) dominated and fire disturbed landscape showing the alteration of natural rain forest. Further, increased soil erodibility is suggested by distinct increase in sediment accumulation rates, a strong pulse of nutrient input, higher water turbidity and contemporaneous increase in spores of mycorrhizal fungi. These parameters are interpreted to show a strong early anthropogenic transformation of the landscape from rain forest to open grassland. After ca. 1000 cal BP, fires remain frequent and vegetation is dominated by forest/grassland mosaic. While natural vegetation should be dominated by rain forest on Nosy Be, these last results indicate that human continuously impacted the landscapes surrounding the lake. At a local scale, our data support the “subsistence shift hypothesis” which proposed that population expansion with development of herding/farming altered the natural ecosystems. However, a precise regional synthesis is challenging, since high-resolution multi-proxy records from continuous sedimentary archives as well as records located further north and in the hinterland are still scarce in Madagascar. The lack of such regional synthesis also prevents precise comparison between different regions in Madagascar to detect potential (dis)similarities in climate dynamics, ecosystem responses and anthropogenic influences at the island’s scale during the (late) Holocene.

Under pressure: Rapid lavaka erosion and floodplain sedimentation in central Madagascar

Lavaka (gullies) are often considered as the prime indication of a currently ongoing human-induced environmental crisis in Madagascar's highlands. Yet, lavaka are known to have existed long before human arrival and account for the majority of the long-term sediment input into the highland rivers and floodplains. The role of anthropogenic disturbances in their formation therefore remains highly debated and it is unclear whether lavaka erosion has recently increased. Here, we address these questions by evaluating the dynamics of lavaka in the Lake Alaotra region (central Madagascar). An overall birth to stabilization ratio of 6.1 indicates a rapid lavaka population growth over the period 1949-2010s. Using data on lavaka development we calculated a mean lavaka population age of 410 ± 40 years and estimate that the disequilibrium started at 870 ± 430 cal. BP. Floodplain sedimentation starts to increase around 1000 cal. BP and peaks over the last 400 years, thereby independently confirming this time frame of increased lavaka activity. Lavaka population dynamics modelling shows that a strong increase in environmental pressure over the last centuries is needed to attain current disequilibrium levels. A general drying of the climate since 950 cal. BP in combination with the introduction of cattle and growing human presence around 1000 cal. BP will likely have triggered the increase in lavaka erosion. However, the recent acceleration cannot be explained by climatic changes alone and seems to be linked to increased anthropogenic pressure on the environment. As such, we offer a fresh and quantitatively supported perspective on lavaka dynamics and human impact in central Madagascar, where our methodology can be used in other locations where similar questions on geomorphic equilibrium need to be answered.

Influence of Late Holocene Climate Change and Human Land Use on Terrestrial and Aquatic Ecosystems in Southwest Madagascar

Madagascar’s biota underwent substantial change following human colonization of the island in the Late Holocene. The timing of human arrival and its role in the extinction of megafauna have received considerable attention. However, the impacts of human activities on regional ecosystems remain poorly studied. Here, we focus on reconstructing changes in the composition of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems to evaluate the impact of human land use and climate variability. We conducted a paleoenvironmental study, using a sediment record that spans the last ∼1,145 years, collected from a lakebed in the Namonte Basin of southwest Madagascar. We examined physical (X-ray fluorescence and stratigraphy) and biotic indicators (pollen, diatoms and micro- and macro-charcoal particles) to infer terrestrial and aquatic ecosystem change. The fossil pollen data indicate that composition of grasslands and dry deciduous forest in the region remained relatively stable during an arid event associated with northward displacement of the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) between ∼1,145 and 555 calibrated calendar years before present (cal yr BP). Charcoal particles indicate that widespread fires occurred in the region, resulting from a combination of climate drivers and human agency during the entire span covered by the paleorecord. Following settlement by pastoral communities and the disappearance of endemic megafauna ∼1,000 cal yr BP, grasslands expanded and the abundance of trees that rely on large animals for seed dispersal gradually declined. A reduction in the abundance of pollen taxa characteristic of dry forest coincided with an abrupt increase in charcoal particles between ∼230 and 35 cal yr BP, when agro-pastoral communities immigrated into the region. Deforestation and soil erosion, indicated by a relatively rapid sedimentation rate and high K/Zr and Fe/Zr, intensified between 180 and 70 cal yr BP and caused a consequent increase in lake turbidity, resulting in more rapid turnover of the aquatic diatom community. Land use and ongoing climate change have continued to transform local terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems during the last ∼70 years. The current composition of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems reflects the legacy of extinction of native biota, invasion of exotic species, and diminished use of traditional land management practices.

Collapse of the Liangzhu and other Neolithic cultures in the lower Yangtze region in response to climate change

The Liangzhu culture in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) was among the world’s most advanced Neolithic cultures. Archeological evidence suggests that the Liangzhu ancient city was abandoned, and the culture collapsed at ~4300 years ago. Here, we present speleothem records from southeastern China in conjunction with other paleoclimatic and archeological data to show that the Liangzhu culture collapsed within a short and anomalously wet period between 4345 ± 32 and 4324 ± 30 years ago, supporting the hypothesis that the city was abandoned after large-scale flooding and inundation. We further show that the demise of Neolithic cultures in the YRD occurred within an extended period of aridity that started at ~4000 ± 45 years ago. We suggest that the major hydroclimatic changes between 4300 and 3000 years ago may have resulted from an increasing frequency of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation in the context of weakened Northern Hemisphere summer insolation.

Drought Coincided with, but Does Not Explain, Late Holocene Megafauna Extinctions in SW Madagascar

Climate drying could have transformed ecosystems in southern Madagascar during recent millennia by contributing to the extinction of endemic megafauna. However, the extent of regional aridification during the past 2000 years is poorly known, as are the responses of endemic animals and economically important livestock to drying. We inferred ~1600 years of climate change around Lake Ranobe, SW Madagascar, using oxygen isotope analyses of monospecific freshwater ostracods (Bradleystrandesia cf. fuscata) and elemental analyses of lake core sediment. We inferred past changes in habitat and diet of introduced and extinct endemic megaherbivores using bone collagen stable isotope and 14C datasets (n = 63). Extinct pygmy hippos and multiple giant lemur species disappeared from the vicinity of Ranobe during a dry interval ~1000–700 cal yr BP, but the simultaneous appearance of introduced cattle, high charcoal concentrations, and other evidence of human activity confound inference of drought-driven extirpations. Unlike the endemic megafauna, relatively low collagen stable nitrogen isotope values among cattle suggest they survived dry intervals by exploiting patches of wet habitat. Although megafaunal extirpations coincided with drought in SW Madagascar, coupled data from bone and lake sediments do not support the hypothesis that extinct megafauna populations collapsed solely because of drought. Given that the reliance of livestock on mesic patches will become more important in the face of projected climate drying, we argue that sustainable conservation of spiny forests in SW Madagascar should support local livelihoods by ensuring that zebu have access to mesic habitat. Additionally, the current interactions between pastoralism and riparian habitats should be studied to help conserve the island’s biodiversity.

Understanding the linkage between regional climatology and cave geochemical parameters to calibrate speleothem proxies in Madagascar

Robust reconstructions of paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental changes using stalagmite proxy records critically depend on detailed observations of the transfer function between the regional climate/environment, the karst aquifer hydrology, and finally the cave microclimate via monitoring, which is currently lacking in Madagascar. This paper reports the first monitoring study performed in Anjohibe Cave, in Mahajanga, NW Madagascar to understand the linkage between regional climatological changes and cave responses to such changes. In this research, we monitored (1) the drip water pH, TDS, EC, temperature, δ¹³C_DIC, δ¹⁸O_w, δ²H_w, and elemental (Ca, Mg, Sr) composition, and (2) the cave atmosphere pCO₂, relative humidity (RH) and temperature. Three significant findings were drawn from the results. First, the data show that air-to-air transfer is fast, and the internal parameters closely vary with the regional climatology. Second, rainfall to drip signal transfer is not immediate, and it can take few months to one season for the signals to be detected in the drip water due to the "epikarst storage effect". Lastly, CaCO₃ precipitation is likely to occur during the winter-summer transition, during which prior carbonate precipitation was detected. Since the growth of speleothems is influenced by numerous cave-specific factors, this study, although preliminary, indicates that Anjohibe Cave drip waters are capable of registering changes in its surrounding environment. Such information is ultimately archived in speleothems to reconstruct paleoclimate and paleoenvironmental changes. Results from this research will be of high significance for those working on speleothems within Madagascar, and for those working on understanding the transfer of climatic variations to cave deposits.

The human dimension of biodiversity changes on islands

Islands are among the last regions on Earth settled and transformed by human activities, and they provide replicated model systems for analysis of how people affect ecological functions. By analyzing 27 representative fossil pollen sequences encompassing the past 5000 years from islands globally, we quantified the rates of vegetation compositional change before and after human arrival. After human arrival, rates of turnover accelerate by a median factor of 11, with faster rates on islands colonized in the past 1500 years than for those colonized earlier. This global anthropogenic acceleration in turnover suggests that islands are on trajectories of continuing change. Strategies for biodiversity conservation and ecosystem restoration must acknowledge the long duration of human impacts and the degree to which ecological changes today differ from prehuman dynamics.

StalGrowth—A Program to Estimate Speleothem Growth Rates and Seasonal Growth Variations

Speleothems are one of the few archives which allow us to reconstruct the terrestrial paleoclimate and help us to understand the important climate dynamics in inhabited regions of our planet. Their time of growth can be precisely dated by radiometric techniques, but unfortunately seasonal radiometric dating resolution is so far not feasible. Numerous cave environmental monitoring studies show evidence for significant seasonal variations in parameters influencing carbonate deposition (calcium-ion concentration, cave air pCO2, drip rate and temperature). Variations in speleothem deposition rates need to be known in order to correctly decipher the climate signal stored in the speleothem archive. StalGrowth is the first software to quantify growth rates based on cave monitoring results, detect growth seasonality and estimate the seasonal growth bias. It quickly plots the predicted speleothem growth rate together with the influencing cave environmental parameters to identify which parameter(s) cause changes in speleothem growth rate, and it can also identify periods of no growth. This new program has been applied to multiannual cave monitoring studies in Austria, Gibraltar, Puerto Rico and Texas, and it has identified two cases of seasonal varying speleothem growth.