A habitat stronghold on the precipice: A call-to-action for supporting lemur conservation in northeast Madagascar

The northeast of Madagascar is as diverse as it is threatened. The area bordering the Analanjirofo and SAVA regions contains six protected areas and at least 22 lemur species. Many applied research and conservation programs have been established in the region with the aim of ensuring both wildlife and people thrive in the long term. While most of the remaining humid evergreen forest of northeast Madagascar is formally protected, the local human population depends heavily on the land, and unsustainable natural resource use threatens this biodiversity hotspot. Drawing from our collective experiences managing conservation activities and research programs in northeast Madagascar, we discuss the major threats to the region and advocate for eight conservation activities that help reduce threats and protect the environment, providing specific examples from our own programs. These include (1) empowering local conservation actors, (2) ensuring effectively protected habitat, (3) expanding reforestation, (4) establishing and continuing long-term research and monitoring, (5) reducing food insecurity, (6) supporting environmental education, (7) promoting sustainable livelihoods, and (8) expanding community health initiatives. Lastly, we provide a list of actions that individuals can take to join us in supporting and promoting lemur conservation.

Characterizing pathways of seafood access in small island developing states

Ensuring healthy and sustainable food systems in increasing social, economic, and ecological change is a key global priority to protect human and environmental health. Seafood is an essential component of these food systems and a critical source of nutrients, especially in coastal communities. However, despite rapid transformations in aquatic food systems, and our urgent need to understand them, there is a dearth of data connecting harvested food production to actualized food consumption. Many analyses suggest institutional, legal, or technological innovations to improve food systems, but few have analyzed the pathways through which people already gain access to nutritious food. Here, using a random forest model and cluster analysis of a nationally representative data set from Kiribati, we operationalize access theory to trace the flows of consumptive benefit in a fisheries-based food system. We demonstrate that the market access mechanism is the key mechanism mediating seafood access in Kiribati, but importantly, the highest seafood consumption households showed lower market access, pointing to the importance of non-market acquisition (e.g., home production and gifting). We reveal six distinct household strategies that employ different sets of access mechanisms to ensure high levels of local seafood consumption in different contexts. We demonstrate the impacts of these strategies on the composition of household seafoods consumed, stressing the need to support these existing successful strategies. Finally, we point to key policy and management insights (e.g., improved infrastructure, shifts in species management) that may be more effective in reinforcing these existing pathways than commonly proposed food system interventions.

Neo-Traditional and Industrialized Dietary Patterns Coexist and Are Differentially Associated with Cardiometabolic Health among Adults in Puerto Rico

BACKGROUND

An increasingly industrialized food system has marginalized local, traditional food cultures in Puerto Rico (PR). Recent efforts to decolonize diets have promoted local food intake; however, how resulting dietary patterns may influence cardiometabolic disease remains unknown.

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to 1) identify dietary patterns in PR and 2) determine their associations with metabolic syndrome (MetS) and its components.

METHODS

Data were obtained from participants (30-75 y) in PROSPECT (PR Observational Study of Psychosocial, Environmental, and Chronic Disease Trends; n = 989). Dietary patterns were derived using partial least squares analysis with food frequency questionnaire data, using nutrients associated with local food purchasing (dietary fiber, magnesium, saturated fat) as response variables. MetS was classified using harmonized criteria from clinical and laboratory measures and medication use. Fully adjusted generalized linear models tested associations between tertiles of dietary patterns and MetS.

RESULTS

Approximately half (52%) of the participants were classified with MetS. Four dietary patterns were revealed: conventional (legumes, coffee, and dairy), industrialized starch and meat-centric (red/processed meats, pasta, and starchy roots), industrialized sugar-centric (rice, sugary beverages, and refined grains), and neo-traditional (local plants and seafood). Individuals in the highest (compared with lowest) tertile of the industrialized starch and meat-centric dietary pattern had higher mean waist circumference (102 compared with 99 cm) (P = 0.01), fasting glucose (106 compared with 98 mg/dL) (P = 0.019), and systolic blood pressure (123 compared with 119 mmHg) (P = 0.022). Individuals in the highest (compared with lowest) tertile of the neo-traditional diet were 0.69 (0.49, 0.97) times less likely to have MetS (P = 0.035) and had 4.1 cm lower mean waist circumference (P = 0.002).

CONCLUSIONS

Promoting a neo-traditional diet and curbing industrialized starch and meat-centric diets may improve cardiometabolic health in PR. Results can guide local food promotion as a healthful, decolonizing approach in island settings.

Applying an evolutionary mismatch framework to understand disease susceptibility

Noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) are on the rise worldwide. Obesity, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes are among a long list of "lifestyle" diseases that were rare throughout human history but are now common. The evolutionary mismatch hypothesis posits that humans evolved in environments that radically differ from those we currently experience; consequently, traits that were once advantageous may now be "mismatched" and disease causing. At the genetic level, this hypothesis predicts that loci with a history of selection will exhibit "genotype by environment" (GxE) interactions, with different health effects in "ancestral" versus "modern" environments. To identify such loci, we advocate for combining genomic tools in partnership with subsistence-level groups experiencing rapid lifestyle change. In these populations, comparisons of individuals falling on opposite extremes of the "matched" to "mismatched" spectrum are uniquely possible. More broadly, the work we propose will inform our understanding of environmental and genetic risk factors for NCDs across diverse ancestries and cultures.

Nutrient supply from marine small-scale fisheries

Over 2 billion people are unable to access safe, nutritious and sufficient food year-round. While global fisheries are considered key in providing essential nutrients to hundreds of millions of people around the globe, the specific contribution of small-scale fisheries to the nutrient supply given other available food supplies is unknown. Here, we combined multiple global databases to quantify the importance of marine small-scale fisheries to national-level nutrient supply of coastal populations. We found that, on average across assessed nutrients (iron, zinc, calcium, DHA + EPA and vitamins A and B12), small-scale fisheries contributed about 32% of overall global seafood nutrient supply, 17% of the nutrient supply from animal-sourced foods and 10% of nutrient supply from all foods. These global averages, however, underrepresent some key roles of ocean-based foods. Combining nutrient supply estimates with global estimates of inadequate nutrient intake, we found that about half of coastal countries that have a mean inadequate intake of at least 50% across assessed nutrients (iron, zinc, calcium, DHA + EPA and vitamins A and B12) rely on small scale fisheries for at least 15% of mean nutrient supply, and many rely on small scale fisheries for more than 30% of mean nutrient supply. Catch from small-scale fisheries is particularly important for the supply of vitamin B12, calcium and DHA + EPA, representing up to 100% of supply in selected countries. Our study demonstrates the significance of small-scale fisheries for nutritionally vulnerable coastal populations, emphasizing how effective fisheries management can contribute to public health.

Reproductive inequality in humans and other mammals

To address claims of human exceptionalism, we determine where humans fit within the greater mammalian distribution of reproductive inequality. We show that humans exhibit lower reproductive skew (i.e., inequality in the number of surviving offspring) among males and smaller sex differences in reproductive skew than most other mammals, while nevertheless falling within the mammalian range. Additionally, female reproductive skew is higher in polygynous human populations than in polygynous nonhumans mammals on average. This patterning of skew can be attributed in part to the prevalence of monogamy in humans compared to the predominance of polygyny in nonhuman mammals, to the limited degree of polygyny in the human societies that practice it, and to the importance of unequally held rival resources to women's fitness. The muted reproductive inequality observed in humans appears to be linked to several unusual characteristics of our species-including high levels of cooperation among males, high dependence on unequally held rival resources, complementarities between maternal and paternal investment, as well as social and legal institutions that enforce monogamous norms.

A Decision Framework for Selecting Critically Important Nutrients from Aquatic Foods

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

Aquatic foods are increasingly being recognized as a diverse, bioavailable source of nutrients, highlighting the importance of fisheries and aquaculture for human nutrition. However, studies focusing on the nutrient supply of aquatic foods often differ in the nutrients they examine, potentially biasing their contribution to nutrition security and leading to ineffective policies or management decisions.

RECENT FINDINGS

We create a decision framework to effectively select nutrients in aquatic food research based on three key domains: human physiological importance, nutritional needs of the target population (demand), and nutrient availability in aquatic foods compared to other accessible dietary sources (supply). We highlight 41 nutrients that are physiologically important, exemplify the importance of aquatic foods relative to other food groups in the food system in terms of concentration per 100 g and apparent consumption, and provide future research pathways that we consider of high importance for aquatic food nutrition. Overall, our study provides a framework to select focal nutrients in aquatic food research and ensures a methodical approach to quantifying the importance of aquatic foods for nutrition security and public health.

Exploring scenarios for the food system-zoonotic risk interface

The unprecedented economic and health impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic have shown the global necessity of mitigating the underlying drivers of zoonotic spillover events, which occur at the human-wildlife and domesticated animal interface. Spillover events are associated to varying degrees with high habitat fragmentation, biodiversity loss through land use change, high livestock densities, agricultural inputs, and wildlife hunting-all facets of food systems. As such, the structure and characteristics of food systems can be considered key determinants of modern pandemic risks. This means that emerging infectious diseases should be more explicitly addressed in the discourse of food systems to mitigate the likelihood and impacts of spillover events. Here, we adopt a scenario framework to highlight the many connections among food systems, zoonotic diseases, and sustainability. We identify two overarching dimensions: the extent of land use for food production and the agricultural practices employed that shape four archetypal food systems, each with a distinct risk profile with respect to zoonotic spillovers and differing dimensions of sustainability. Prophylactic measures to curb the emergence of zoonotic diseases are therefore closely linked to diets and food policies. Future research directions should explore more closely how they impact the risk of spillover events.

Four ways blue foods can help achieve food system ambitions across nations

Blue foods, sourced in aquatic environments, are important for the economies, livelihoods, nutritional security and cultures of people in many nations. They are often nutrient rich1, generate lower emissions and impacts on land and water than many terrestrial meats2, and contribute to the health3, wellbeing and livelihoods of many rural communities4. The Blue Food Assessment recently evaluated nutritional, environmental, economic and justice dimensions of blue foods globally. Here we integrate these findings and translate them into four policy objectives to help realize the contributions that blue foods can make to national food systems around the world: ensuring supplies of critical nutrients, providing healthy alternatives to terrestrial meat, reducing dietary environmental footprints and safeguarding blue food contributions to nutrition, just economies and livelihoods under a changing climate. To account for how context-specific environmental, socio-economic and cultural aspects affect this contribution, we assess the relevance of each policy objective for individual countries, and examine associated co-benefits and trade-offs at national and international scales. We find that in many African and South American nations, facilitating consumption of culturally relevant blue food, especially among nutritionally vulnerable population segments, could address vitamin B12 and omega-3 deficiencies. Meanwhile, in many global North nations, cardiovascular disease rates and large greenhouse gas footprints from ruminant meat intake could be lowered through moderate consumption of seafood with low environmental impact. The analytical framework we provide also identifies countries with high future risk, for whom climate adaptation of blue food systems will be particularly important. Overall the framework helps decision makers to assess the blue food policy objectives most relevant to their geographies, and to compare and contrast the benefits and trade-offs associated with pursuing these objectives.

Abstract P605: Neo-Traditional Diets Are Associated With Lower Odds of Metabolic Syndrome Among Adults in Puerto Rico

Prolonged marginalization of traditional food cultures has diminished local food production and increased dependence on highly processed imports in Puerto Rico (PR), contributing to low-quality diets and cardiometabolic disease. Recent efforts have been made to decolonize diets by increasing local food intake; however, what dietary patterns (DPs) exist and how they are associated with cardiometabolic disease risk remain unknown. This study aimed to 1 ) identify food-system-specific DPs and 2 ) determine associations with metabolic syndrome (MetS), a multicomponent cardiometabolic risk factor, among adults in PR. We hypothesized that a neo-traditional DP would emerge, characterized by use of minimally processed local foods and associated with lower odds of MetS. Data were obtained from adults (30-75 y) in the PR Observational Study of Psychosocial, Environmental, and Chronic Disease Trends ( n = 989). DPs were derived using partial least squares analysis on food frequency questionnaire data, with nutrients significantly associated with local food purchasing (fiber, magnesium [Mg], saturated fat) as response variables. MetS was classified using harmonized criteria from clinical and laboratory measures (waist circumference, fasting glucose, systolic/diastolic blood pressure, triglycerides, HDL cholesterol) and medication use. Fully adjusted generalized linear models tested associations between tertiles of DPs and MetS. Approximately half (52%) of participants were classified with MetS. Four DPs were extracted, described as neo-traditional (local plants and seafood), transitioning (beans and coffee), industrial: meat-centric (red/processed meats and fast foods), and industrial: sugar-centric (rice and sugary beverages). Individuals in the highest (vs. lowest) tertile of the neo-traditional DP were more likely to purchase local (not imported) fruits, vegetables, and seafood; those in the transitioning DP were more likely to reside in rural areas; those in the meat-centric DP were more likely to purchase local meats; and those in the sugar-centric DP had lower educational attainment and household income. Individuals in the highest (vs. lowest) tertile of the neo-traditional DP were 0.69 (0.49, 0.97) times less likely to have MetS ( P = 0.035); they also had 4.1 (1.3) cm lower mean (SE) waist circumference ( P = 0.002). In contrast, individuals in the highest (vs. lowest) tertile of the meat-centric DP had higher mean waist circumference (102 vs. 99 cm, P = 0.01), fasting glucose (106 vs. 98 mg/dL, P = 0.019), and systolic blood pressure (123 vs. 119 mmHg, P = 0.022). The sugar-centric and transitioning DPs were not significantly associated with MetS or its components. A neo-traditional diet in PR holds promise in supporting local food production and augmenting cardiometabolic health. Results can guide local food promotion as a healthful, decolonizing approach in island settings.

Evolutionary mismatch and the role of GxE interactions in human disease

Globally, we are witnessing the rise of complex, non-communicable diseases (NCDs) related to changes in our daily environments. Obesity, asthma, cardiovascular disease, and type 2 diabetes are part of a long list of "lifestyle" diseases that were rare throughout human history but are now common. A key idea from anthropology and evolutionary biology-the evolutionary mismatch hypothesis-seeks to explain this phenomenon. It posits that humans evolved in environments that radically differ from the ones experienced by most people today, and thus traits that were advantageous in past environments may now be "mismatched" and disease-causing. This hypothesis is, at its core, a genetic one: it predicts that loci with a history of selection will exhibit "genotype by environment" (GxE) interactions and have differential health effects in ancestral versus modern environments. Here, we discuss how this concept could be leveraged to uncover the genetic architecture of NCDs in a principled way. Specifically, we advocate for partnering with small-scale, subsistence-level groups that are currently transitioning from environments that are arguably more "matched" with their recent evolutionary history to those that are more "mismatched". These populations provide diverse genetic backgrounds as well as the needed levels and types of environmental variation necessary for mapping GxE interactions in an explicit mismatch framework. Such work would make important contributions to our understanding of environmental and genetic risk factors for NCDs across diverse ancestries and sociocultural contexts.

Safeguarding nutrients from coral reefs under climate change

The sustainability of coral reef fisheries is jeopardized by complex and interacting socio-ecological stressors that undermine their contribution to food and nutrition security. Climate change has emerged as one of the key stressors threatening coral reefs and their fish-associated services. How fish nutrient concentrations respond to warming oceans remains unclear but these responses are probably affected by both direct (metabolism and trophodynamics) and indirect (habitat and species range shifts) effects. Climate-driven coral habitat loss can cause changes in fish abundance and biomass, revealing potential winners and losers among major fisheries targets that can be predicted using ecological indicators and biological traits. A critical next step is to extend research focused on the quantity of available food (fish biomass) to also consider its nutritional quality, which is relevant to progress in the fields of food security and malnutrition. Biological traits are robust predictors of fish nutrient content and thus potentially indicate how climate-driven changes are expected to impact nutrient availability within future food webs on coral reefs. Here, we outline future research priorities and an anticipatory framework towards sustainable reef fisheries contributing to nutrition-sensitive food systems in a warming ocean.

Rights and representation support justice across aquatic food systems

Injustices are prevalent in food systems, where the accumulation of vast wealth is possible for a few, yet one in ten people remain hungry. Here, for 194 countries we combine aquatic food production, distribution and consumption data with corresponding national policy documents and, drawing on theories of social justice, explore whether barriers to participation explain unequal distributions of benefits. Using Bayesian models, we find economic and political barriers are associated with lower wealth-based benefits; countries produce and consume less when wealth, formal education and voice and accountability are lacking. In contrast, social barriers are associated with lower welfare-based benefits; aquatic foods are less affordable where gender inequality is greater. Our analyses of policy documents reveal a frequent failure to address political and gender-based barriers. However, policies linked to more just food system outcomes centre principles of human rights, specify inclusive decision-making processes and identify and challenge drivers of injustice.

Co-Radiation of Leptospira and Tenrecidae (Afrotheria) on Madagascar

Leptospirosis is a bacterial zoonosis caused by pathogenic Leptospira that are maintained in the kidney lumen of infected animals acting as reservoirs and contaminating the environment via infected urine. The investigation of leptospirosis through a One Health framework has been stimulated by notable genetic diversity of pathogenic Leptospira combined with a high infection prevalence in certain animal reservoirs. Studies of Madagascar’s native mammal fauna have revealed a diversity of Leptospira with high levels of host-specificity. Native rodents, tenrecids, and bats shelter several distinct lineages and species of Leptospira, some of which have also been detected in acute human cases. Specifically, L. mayottensis, first discovered in humans on Mayotte, an island neighboring Madagascar, was subsequently identified in a few species of tenrecids on the latter island, which comprise an endemic family of small mammals. Distinct L. mayottensis lineages were identified in shrew tenrecs (Microgale cowani and Nesogale dobsoni) on Madagascar, and later in an introduced population of spiny tenrecs (Tenrec ecaudatus) on Mayotte. These findings suggest that L. mayottensis (i) has co-radiated with tenrecids on Madagascar, and (ii) has recently emerged in human populations on Mayotte following the introduction of T. ecaudatus from Madagascar. Hitherto, L. mayottensis has not been detected in spiny tenrecs on Madagascar. In the present study, we broaden the investigation of Malagasy tenrecids and test the emergence of L. mayottensis in humans as a result of the introduction of T. ecaudatus on Mayotte. We screened by PCR 55 tenrecid samples from Madagascar, including kidney tissues from 24 individual T. ecaudatus. We describe the presence of L. mayottensis in Malagasy T. ecaudatus in agreement with the aforementioned hypothesis, as well as in M. thomasi, a tenrecid species that has not been explored thus far for Leptospira carriage.

Global importance of Indigenous Peoples, their lands, and knowledge systems for saving the world's primates from extinction

Primates, represented by 521 species, are distributed across 91 countries primarily in the Neotropic, Afrotropic, and Indo-Malayan realms. Primates inhabit a wide range of habitats and play critical roles in sustaining healthy ecosystems that benefit human and nonhuman communities. Approximately 68% of primate species are threatened with extinction because of global pressures to convert their habitats for agricultural production and the extraction of natural resources. Here, we review the scientific literature and conduct a spatial analysis to assess the significance of Indigenous Peoples' lands in safeguarding primate biodiversity. We found that Indigenous Peoples' lands account for 30% of the primate range, and 71% of primate species inhabit these lands. As their range on these lands increases, primate species are less likely to be classified as threatened or have declining populations. Safeguarding Indigenous Peoples' lands, languages, and cultures represents our greatest chance to prevent the extinction of the world's primates.

Estimating national and subnational nutrient intake distributions of global diets

BACKGROUND

Access to high-quality dietary intake data is central to many nutrition, epidemiology, economic, environmental, and policy applications. When data on individual nutrient intakes are available, they have not been consistently disaggregated by sex and age groups, and their parameters and full distributions are often not publicly available.

OBJECTIVES

We sought to derive usual intake distributions for as many nutrients and population subgroups as possible, use these distributions to estimate nutrient intake inadequacy, compare these distributions and evaluate the implications of their shapes on the estimation of inadequacy, and make these distributions publicly available.

METHODS

We compiled dietary data sets from 31 geographically diverse countries, modeled usual intake distributions for 32 micronutrients and 21 macronutrients, and disaggregated these distributions by sex and age groups. We compared the variability and skewness of the distributions and evaluated their similarity across countries, sex, and age groups. We estimated intake inadequacy for 16 nutrients based on a harmonized set of nutrient requirements and bioavailability estimates. Last, we created an R package-nutriR-to make these distributions freely available for users to apply in their own analyses.

RESULTS

Usual intake distributions were rarely symmetric and differed widely in variability and skewness across nutrients and countries. Vitamin intake distributions were more variable and skewed and exhibited less similarity among countries than other nutrients. Inadequate intakes were high and geographically concentrated, as well as generally higher for females than males. We found that the shape of usual intake distributions strongly affects estimates of the prevalence of inadequate intakes.

CONCLUSIONS

The shape of nutrient intake distributions differs based on nutrient and subgroup and strongly influences estimates of nutrient intake inadequacy. This research represents an important contribution to the availability and application of dietary intake data for diverse subpopulations around the world.

Study Protocol: Interactive Dynamics of Coral Reef Fisheries and the Nutrition Transition in Kiribati

The Kiribati 2019 Integrated Household Income and Expenditure Survey (Integrated HIES) embeds novel ecological and human health research into an ongoing social and economic survey infrastructure implemented by the Pacific Community in partnership with national governments. This study seeks to describe the health status of a large, nationally representative sample of a geographically and socially diverse I-Kiribati population through multiple clinical measurements and detailed socio-economic surveys, while also conducting supporting food systems research on ecological, social, and institutional drivers of change. The specific hypotheses within this research relate to access to seafood and the potential nutritional and health benefits of these foods. We conducted this research in 21 of the 23 inhabited islands of Kiribati, excluding the two inhabited islands-Kanton Islands in the Phoenix Islands group with a population of 41 persons (2020 census) and Banaba Island in the Gilbert Islands group with a population of 333 persons (2020 census)-and focusing exclusively on the remaining islands in the Gilbert and Line Islands groups. Within this sample, we focused our intensive human health and ecological research in 10 of the 21 selected islands to examine the relationship between ecological conditions, resource governance, food system dynamics, and dietary patterns. Ultimately, this research has created a baseline for future Integrated HIES assessments to simultaneously monitor change in ecological, social, economic, and human health conditions and how they co-vary over time.

Opposing trends in fisheries portfolio diversity at harvester and community scales signal opportunities for adaptation

Understanding mechanisms that promote social-ecological resilience can inform future adaptation strategies. Among seafood dependent communities, these can be illuminated by assessing change among fisheries portfolios. Here, in collaboration with a Coast Salish Nation in British Columbia, Canada, we used expert Indigenous knowledge and network analyses to chronicle differences in fisheries portfolios pre and post a social-ecological regime shift. We then evaluated key drivers of change using semi-structured interviews. We found that while portfolios decreased in diversity of seafood types harvested and consumed among individuals overtime, portfolios increased in their diversification at the community level because more similar seafoods within less diverse individual portfolios were more commonly harvested and consumed by the Nation as a whole. Thus, diversity can operate simultaneously in opposing directions at different scales of organization. Experts identified four key mechanisms driving these changes, including commercial activities controlled by a centralized governance regime, intergenerational knowledge loss, adaptive learning to new ecological and economic opportunities, and the trading of seafood with other Indigenous communities. Unexpectedly, increased predation by marine mammals was also flagged as a key driver of change. Adaptation strategies that support access to and governance of diverse fisheries, exchange of seafoods among communities, and knowledge transfer among generations would promote social-ecological resilience, food security, and community well-being.

Sustainable food systems and nutrition in the 21st century: a report from the 22nd annual Harvard Nutrition Obesity Symposium

Food systems are at the center of a brewing storm consisting of a rapidly changing climate, rising hunger and malnutrition, and significant social inequities. At the same time, there are vast opportunities to ensure that food systems produce healthy and safe food in equitable ways that promote environmental sustainability, especially if the world can come together at the UN Food Systems Summit in late 2021 and make strong and binding commitments toward food system transformation. The NIH-funded Nutrition Obesity Research Center at Harvard and the Harvard Medical School Division of Nutrition held their 22nd annual Harvard Nutrition Obesity Symposium entitled "Global Food Systems and Sustainable Nutrition in the 21st Century" in June 2021. This article presents a synthesis of this symposium and highlights the importance of food systems to addressing the burden of malnutrition and noncommunicable diseases, climate change, and the related economic and social inequities. Transformation of food systems is possible, and the nutrition and health communities have a significant role to play in this transformative process.

Aquatic foods to nourish nations

Despite contributing to healthy diets for billions of people, aquatic foods are often undervalued as a nutritional solution because their diversity is often reduced to the protein and energy value of a single food type ('seafood' or 'fish')1-4. Here we create a cohesive model that unites terrestrial foods with nearly 3,000 taxa of aquatic foods to understand the future impact of aquatic foods on human nutrition. We project two plausible futures to 2030: a baseline scenario with moderate growth in aquatic animal-source food (AASF) production, and a high-production scenario with a 15-million-tonne increased supply of AASFs over the business-as-usual scenario in 2030, driven largely by investment and innovation in aquaculture production. By comparing changes in AASF consumption between the scenarios, we elucidate geographic and demographic vulnerabilities and estimate health impacts from diet-related causes. Globally, we find that a high-production scenario will decrease AASF prices by 26% and increase their consumption, thereby reducing the consumption of red and processed meats that can lead to diet-related non-communicable diseases5,6 while also preventing approximately 166 million cases of inadequate micronutrient intake. This finding provides a broad evidentiary basis for policy makers and development stakeholders to capitalize on the potential of aquatic foods to reduce food and nutrition insecurity and tackle malnutrition in all its forms.

Blue food demand across geographic and temporal scales

Numerous studies have focused on the need to expand production of 'blue foods', defined as aquatic foods captured or cultivated in marine and freshwater systems, to meet rising population- and income-driven demand. Here we analyze the roles of economic, demographic, and geographic factors and preferences in shaping blue food demand, using secondary data from FAO and The World Bank, parameters from published models, and case studies at national to sub-national scales. Our results show a weak cross-sectional relationship between per capita income and consumption globally when using an aggregate fish metric. Disaggregation by fish species group reveals distinct geographic patterns; for example, high consumption of freshwater fish in China and pelagic fish in Ghana and Peru where these fish are widely available, affordable, and traditionally eaten. We project a near doubling of global fish demand by mid-century assuming continued growth in aquaculture production and constant real prices for fish. Our study concludes that nutritional and environmental consequences of rising demand will depend on substitution among fish groups and other animal source foods in national diets.

Harnessing the diversity of small-scale actors is key to the future of aquatic food systems

Small-scale fisheries and aquaculture (SSFA) provide livelihoods for over 100 million people and sustenance for ~1 billion people, particularly in the Global South. Aquatic foods are distributed through diverse supply chains, with the potential to be highly adaptable to stresses and shocks, but face a growing range of threats and adaptive challenges. Contemporary governance assumes homogeneity in SSFA despite the diverse nature of this sector. Here we use SSFA actor profiles to capture the key dimensions and dynamism of SSFA diversity, reviewing contemporary threats and exploring opportunities for the SSFA sector. The heuristic framework can inform adaptive governance actions supporting the diversity and vital roles of SSFA in food systems, and in the health and livelihoods of nutritionally vulnerable people-supporting their viability through appropriate policies whilst fostering equitable and sustainable food systems.

Environmental performance of blue foods

Fish and other aquatic foods (blue foods) present an opportunity for more sustainable diets^1,2. Yet comprehensive comparison has been limited due to sparse inclusion of blue foods in environmental impact studies^3,4 relative to the vast diversity of production⁵. Here we provide standardized estimates of greenhouse gas, nitrogen, phosphorus, freshwater and land stressors for species groups covering nearly three quarters of global production. We find that across all blue foods, farmed bivalves and seaweeds generate the lowest stressors. Capture fisheries predominantly generate greenhouse gas emissions, with small pelagic fishes generating lower emissions than all fed aquaculture, but flatfish and crustaceans generating the highest. Among farmed finfish and crustaceans, silver and bighead carps have the lowest greenhouse gas, nitrogen and phosphorus emissions, but highest water use, while farmed salmon and trout use the least land and water. Finally, we model intervention scenarios and find improving feed conversion ratios reduces stressors across all fed groups, increasing fish yield reduces land and water use by up to half, and optimizing gears reduces capture fishery emissions by more than half for some groups. Collectively, our analysis identifies high-performing blue foods, highlights opportunities to improve environmental performance, advances data-poor environmental assessments, and informs sustainable diets.

Compound climate risks threaten aquatic food system benefits

Aquatic foods from marine and freshwater systems are critical to the nutrition, health, livelihoods, economies and cultures of billions of people worldwide, but climate-related hazards may compromise their ability to provide these benefits. Here, we estimate national-level aquatic food system climate risk using an integrative food systems approach that connects climate hazards impacting marine and freshwater capture fisheries and aquaculture to their contributions to sustainable food system outcomes. We show that without mitigation, climate hazards pose high risks to nutritional, social, economic and environmental outcomes worldwide-especially for wild-capture fisheries in Africa, South and Southeast Asia, and Small Island Developing States. For countries projected to experience compound climate risks, reducing societal vulnerabilities can lower climate risk by margins similar to meeting Paris Agreement mitigation targets. System-level interventions addressing dimensions such as governance, gender equity and poverty are needed to enhance aquatic and terrestrial food system resilience and provide investments with large co-benefits towards meeting the Sustainable Development Goals.

Sustaining planetary health through systems thinking: Public health's critical role

Understanding and responding to adverse human health impacts of global environmental change will be a major priority of 21st century public health professionals. The emerging field of planetary health aims to face this challenge by studying and promoting policies that protect the health of humans and of the Earth's natural systems that support them. Public health, drawing on its experience of guiding policies to improve population health, has contributed to planetary health's development. Yet, few public health practitioners are familiar with planetary health's systems-oriented approaches for understanding relationships between economic development, environmental degradation, and human health. In this narrative review, we present key planetary health concepts and show how systems thinking has guided its development. We discuss historical approaches to studying impacts of economic development on human health and the environment. We then review novel conceptual frameworks adopted by planetary health scientists to study and forecast impacts of policies that influence human health and Earth's natural systems at varying spatiotemporal scales. We conclude by presenting examples of how applying the "Doughnut" model (an economic framework where the needs of people are met without overshooting the world's ecological limits) could guide policies for promoting health co-benefits to humans and natural systems.

Fine-scale variation in malaria prevalence across ecological regions in Madagascar: a cross-sectional study

Background

Large-scale variation in ecological parameters across Madagascar is hypothesized to drive varying spatial patterns of malaria infection. However, to date, few studies of parasite prevalence with resolution at finer, sub-regional spatial scales are available. As a result, there is a poor understanding of how Madagascar’s diverse local ecologies link with variation in the distribution of infections at the community and household level. Efforts to preserve Madagascar’s ecological diversity often focus on improving livelihoods in rural communities near remaining forested areas but are limited by a lack of data on their infectious disease burden.

Methods

To investigate spatial variation in malaria prevalence at the sub-regional scale in Madagascar, we sampled 1476 households (7117 total individuals, all ages) from 31 rural communities divided among five ecologically distinct regions. The sampled regions range from tropical rainforest to semi-arid, spiny forest and include communities near protected areas including the Masoala, Makira, and Mikea forests. Malaria prevalence was estimated by rapid diagnostic test (RDT) cross-sectional surveys performed during malaria transmission seasons over 2013–2017.

Results

Indicative of localized hotspots, malaria prevalence varied more than 10-fold between nearby (< 50 km) communities in some cases. Prevalence was highest on average in the west coast region (Morombe district, average community prevalence 29.4%), situated near protected dry deciduous forest habitat. At the household level, communities in southeast Madagascar (Mananjary district) were observed with over 50% of households containing multiple infected individuals at the time of sampling. From simulations accounting for variation in household size and prevalence at the community level, we observed a significant excess of households with multiple infections in rural communities in southwest and southeast Madagascar, suggesting variation in risk within communities.

Conclusions

Our data suggest that the malaria infection burden experienced by rural communities in Madagascar varies greatly at smaller spatial scales (i.e., at the community and household level) and that the southeast and west coast ecological regions warrant further attention from disease control efforts. Conservation and development efforts in these regions may benefit from consideration of the high, and variable, malaria prevalences among communities in these areas.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-11090-3.

Recognize fish as food in policy discourse and development funding

The international development community is off-track from meeting targets for alleviating global malnutrition. Meanwhile, there is growing consensus across scientific disciplines that fish plays a crucial role in food and nutrition security. However, this 'fish as food' perspective has yet to translate into policy and development funding priorities. We argue that the traditional framing of fish as a natural resource emphasizes economic development and biodiversity conservation objectives, whereas situating fish within a food systems perspective can lead to innovative policies and investments that promote nutrition-sensitive and socially equitable capture fisheries and aquaculture. This paper highlights four pillars of research needs and policy directions toward this end. Ultimately, recognizing and working to enhance the role of fish in alleviating hunger and malnutrition can provide an additional long-term development incentive, beyond revenue generation and biodiversity conservation, for governments, international development organizations, and society more broadly to invest in the sustainability of capture fisheries and aquaculture.

Reorientation of aquaculture production systems can reduce environmental impacts and improve nutrition security in Bangladesh

Aquatic foods are a critical source of human nutrition in many developing countries. As a result, declines in wild-caught fish landings threaten nutritionally vulnerable populations. Aquaculture presents an opportunity to meet local demand, but it also places pressure on natural resource inputs and causes a range of environmental impacts. Here, we examine whether current aquaculture systems in Bangladesh can be reoriented to address prevailing nutritional deficiencies while minimizing these environmental impacts. Current fish farming practices, even when optimized, cannot fully supply the same essential micronutrient densities of zinc, iron and calcium as wild-caught fish. However, when the proportion of highly nutrient-dense small indigenous fish species (SIS) was increased to at least 30% of the total output in any of the 14 aquaculture production systems analysed, these systems were able to meet or surpass the nutrient densities of average wild-capture fisheries. Extensive aquaculture systems that co-produce fish and rice had the lowest environmental burdens in six out of seven metrics examined when the composition of all aquaculture systems was modified to include 50% SIS. Nutrition-sensitive aquaculture that provides greater human health benefits and minimizes environmental impacts is a key societal challenge that requires targeted interventions and supportive policies.

Variation in Anopheles distribution and predictors of malaria infection risk across regions of Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Deforestation and land use change is widespread in Madagascar, altering local ecosystems and creating opportunities for disease vectors, such as the Anopheles mosquito, to proliferate and more easily reach vulnerable, rural populations. Knowledge of risk factors associated with malaria infections is growing globally, but these associations remain understudied across Madagascar's diverse ecosystems experiencing rapid environmental change. This study aims to uncover socioeconomic, demographic, and ecological risk factors for malaria infection across regions through analysis of a large, cross-sectional dataset.

METHODS

The objectives were to assess (1) the ecological correlates of malaria vector breeding through larval surveys, and (2) the socioeconomic, demographic, and ecological risk factors for malaria infection in four ecologically distinct regions of rural Madagascar. Risk factors were determined using multilevel models for the four regions included in the study.

RESULTS

The presence of aquatic agriculture (both within and surrounding communities) is the strongest predictive factor of habitats containing Anopheles larvae across all regions. Ecological and socioeconomic risk factors for malaria infection vary dramatically across study regions and range in their complexity.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk factors for malaria transmission differ dramatically across regions of Madagascar. These results may help stratifying current malaria control efforts in Madagascar beyond the scope of existing interventions.

Study Protocol: A Cross-Sectional Examination of Socio-Demographic and Ecological Determinants of Nutrition and Disease Across Madagascar

Madagascar has experienced significant environmental change since 1960, particularly through forest clearing for agricultural expansion. Climatic patterns are undergoing change in Madagascar as well, with increasing temperatures, droughts, and cyclonic activity. The impact of these environmental and climatic changes will pose threats to food availability, income generation, and local ecosystems, with significant potential effects on the spatial and temporal distribution of disease burden. This study seeks to describe the health status of a large sample of geographically and socially diverse Malagasy communities through multiple clinical measurements, detailed social surveys, and paired data on regional variation in local ecologies. With an increased understanding of the current patterns of variation in human health and nutrition, future studies will be better able to identify associations with climate and anticipate and mitigate the burdens expected from larger, longer-term changes. Our mixed-method approach included an observational cross-sectional study. Research subjects were men, women, and children from 1,125 households evenly distributed across 24 communities in four ecologically and socio-demographically distinct regions of Madagascar. For these 1,125 households, all persons of both sexes and all ages therein (for a total of 6,292 individuals) were recruited into the research study and a total of 5,882 individuals were enrolled. Through repeated social survey recalls and focus group meetings, we obtained social and demographic data, including broad categories of seasonal movements, and characterized the fluctuation of income generation, food production and dietary consumption. Through collection of clinical and biological samples for both point-of-care diagnoses and laboratory analyses, we obtained detailed occurrence (and importantly co-occurrence) data on micronutrient nutritional, infectious disease, and non-communicable disease status. Our research highlights the highly variable social, cultural, and environmental contexts of health conditions in Madagascar, and the tremendous inter-regional, inter-community, and intra-community variation in nutritional and disease status. More than 30% of the surveyed population was afflicted by anemia and 14% of the population had a current malaria infection. This type of rich metadata associated with a suite of biological samples and nutritional and disease outcome data should allow disentangling some of the underlying drivers of ill health across the changing landscapes of Madagascar.

Two new phlebotomine sandflies (Diptera: Psychodidae) from the forest edge in Madagascar: the anthropophilic Phlebotomus artemievi sp. nov. and Sergentomyia maroantsetra ensis sp. nov

A few data are related to the anthropophily of Malagasy Phlebotomine sandflies. Prior studies focussed mainly to inventories and description of new species. Our goal was to emphasize the anthropophily of Malagasy Phlebotomine sandflies. We worked in the Makira region, using two simultaneous methods: human landing catches (HLC) and CDC light traps. We collected sandflies in three rural communities adjacent to the Makira Natural Park. In each community, three different biotopes were sampled: within community settlements; at the edge of forest, typically in agricultural land; and within the forest. We collected 61 sandflies belonging to two new species presently described: Phlebotomus artemievi sp. nov. and Sergentomyia maroantsetraensis sp. nov. These sandflies were caught exclusively in the forest edge biotope. None were captured within communities or within forests. HLC provided 97% of the collected sandflies, corresponding to a human-biting rate of 15 females per human per night. CDC provided only two females. Ph. artemievi sp. nov. was predominantly captured by HLC and appears to be highly anthropophilic. Here, we update the behavioural ecology of sandflies and describe two new species. Further research is required to understand their vector competence and their ability to transmit arboviruses and other pathogens such as Leishmania.

Modeling the Impact of Newcastle Disease Virus Vaccinations on Chicken Production Systems in Northeastern Madagascar

Chickens are a key source of nutrition for rural Malagasy communities. Due to high endemic rates of Newcastle disease, it remains challenging to raise sustainable chicken flocks as a consistent food source. Here, we explore the impact of triannual Newcastle disease virus (NDV) vaccine interventions on the growth and herd immunity acquisition of Malagasy chicken flocks. Between 2011 and 2018 we collected longitudinal data to assess the population dynamics of chicken populations in remote Malagasy communities. In 2016, we launched a pilot campaign for vaccination in six rural communities to determine the impacts on chicken survivorship and productivity. We used these data to specify a mathematical model of realistic Malagasy chicken population dynamics under a triannual vaccination regime. The mathematical model represents an extension to conventional SIR models that allows for modeling the impact of specific vaccinations on chicken flock dynamics, rather than estimation of parameters. Understanding chicken population dynamics is important for realizing the potential for domestic chicken flocks to serve as sustainable food sources. The results suggested that vaccination coverage of at least ~40% is necessary over 5+ years to achieve population doubling, while complete herd immunity may not be possible given the short duration of effectiveness of vaccination, and the high levels of births and deaths in the chicken flocks.

Cohort Description of the Madagascar Health and Environmental Research-Antongil (MAHERY-Antongil) Study in Madagascar

The Madagascar Health and Environmental Research-Antongil (MAHERY-Antongil) study cohort was set up in September 2015 to assess the nutritional value of seafood for the coastal Malagasy population living along Antongil Bay in northeastern Madagascar. Over 28 months of surveillance, we aimed to understand the relationships among different marine resource governance models, local people's fish catch, the consumption of seafood, and nutritional status. In the Antongil Bay, fisheries governance takes three general forms: traditional management, marine national parks, and co-management. Traditional management involves little to no involvement by the national government or non-governmental organizations, and focuses on culturally accepted Malagasy community practices. Co-management and marine national parks involve management support from either an non-govermental organization (NGO) or the national government. Five communities of varying governance strategies were enrolled into the study including 225 households and 1031 individuals whose diets, resource acquisition strategies, fisheries and agricultural practices, and other social, demographic and economic indicators were measured over the span of 3 years. Clinical visits with each individual were conducted at two points during the study to measure disease and nutritional status. By analyzing differences in fish catch arising from variation in governance (in addition to intra-annual seasonal changes and minor inter-annual changes), the project will allow us to calculate the public health value of sustainable fisheries management approaches for local populations. There is hope that coastal zones that are managed sustainably can increase the productivity of fisheries, increasing the catch of seafood products for poor, undernourished populations.

A qualitative evaluation of health care in the Maroantsetra region of Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Individuals in rural communities in Madagascar must frequently travel long distances, over difficult terrain, to obtain basic care. The quality of care is often inconsistent and inadequate.

METHODS

An exploratory mixed-methods study was conducted in select coastal communities in the Maroantsetra region of Madagascar to generate a more robust understanding of community and health care provider perceptions and how patients decide to seek health care, including the decision to use traditional medicine vs allopathic medicine. A total of 69 free-listing exercises and 21 facility assessments were conducted in eight communities.

RESULTS

Symptoms most commonly reported as reasons to seek health care included headaches, fever and cough. Decisions to access allopathic health care facilities depended on the intersection of geographic and financial access to health care facilities, perceived severity of the illness and the availability and confidence in traditional plant-based medications. Traveling salespeople, staff at local stores and pharmacy workers very often lacked formal training.

CONCLUSIONS

The decision to use allopathic medicine was determined by the perception of disease severity and when vulnerable populations, such as children and the elderly, were involved. Results provide insight into patterns, motivations and obstacles to health care utilization and decision making in the Maroantsetra region of Madagascar.

Potential impacts of climate-related decline of seafood harvest on nutritional status of coastal First Nations in British Columbia, Canada

BACKGROUND

Traditional food systems are under pressure from various stressors, including climate change which is projected to negatively alter the abundance of marine species harvested by coastal First Nations (FNs) in British Columbia (BC).

OBJECTIVE

To model the potential impacts of the climate-related declines in seafood production on the nutritional status of coastal BC FNs. In addition, we projected potential changes in nutrient intakes, under different scenarios of substitution where traditional seafood is replaced with alternative non-traditional foods.

METHODS

The study design is a mixed-method approach that combines two datasets: projected scenarios of climate-related change on seafood catch potential for coastal BC FNs and data derived from the cross-sectional First Nations Food, Nutrition, and Environment Study. The consumption of seafood was estimated using a food frequency questionnaire among 356 FNs. The contribution of seafood consumption to protein, eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA), vitamins (A, B12, D, niacin), and minerals (zinc, selenium and iron) requirements was assessed using Dietary Reference Intakes (DRIs).

RESULTS

Traditional seafood consumption provided daily recommendations of EPA+DHA (74-184%) and vitamin B12 (84-152%) and substantial levels of niacin (28-55%), selenium (29-55%), vitamin D (15-30%) and protein (14-30%). Projected climate change was estimated to reduce the intakes of essential nutrients by 21% and 31% under 'strong mitigation' (Representative Concentration Pathway, RCP2.6) and 'business-as-usual' (RCP8.5) climate change scenarios, respectively, by the year 2050 relative to 2000. The hypothetical substitution of seafood with selected alternative non-traditional foods does not provide adequate amounts of nutrients.

CONCLUSION

Traditionally-harvested seafood remains fundamental to the contemporary diet and health of coastal BC FNs. Potential dietary shifts aggravated by climate-related declines in seafood consumption may have significant nutritional and health implications for BC FN. Strategies to improve access to seafood harvest potential in coastal communities are needed to ensure nutritional health and overall well-being and to promote food security and food sovereignty in coastal FNs.

Population viability and harvest sustainability for Madagascar lemurs

Subsistence hunting presents a conservation challenge by which biodiversity preservation must be balanced with safeguarding of human livelihoods. Globally, subsistence hunting threatens primate populations, including Madagascar's endemic lemurs. We used population viability analysis to assess the sustainability of lemur hunting in Makira Natural Park, Madagascar. We identified trends in seasonal hunting of 11 Makira lemur species from household interview data, estimated local lemur densities in populations adjacent to focal villages via transect surveys, and quantified extinction vulnerability for these populations based on species-specific demographic parameters and empirically derived hunting rates. We compared stage-based Lefkovitch with periodic Leslie matrices to evaluate the impact of regional dispersal on persistence trajectories and explored the consequences of perturbations to the timing of peak hunting relative to the lemur birth pulse, under assumptions of density-dependent reproductive compensation. Lemur hunting peaked during the fruit-abundant wet season (March-June). Estimated local lemur densities were roughly inverse to body size across our study area. Life-history modeling indicated that hunting most severely threatened the species with the largest bodies (i.e., Hapalemur occidentalis, Avahi laniger, Daubentonia madagascariensis, and Indri indi), characterized by late-age reproductive onsets and long interbirth intervals. In model simulations, lemur dispersal within a regional metapopulation buffered extinction threats when a majority of local sites supported growth rates above the replacement level but drove regional extirpations when most local sites were overharvested. Hunt simulations were most detrimental when timed to overlap lemur births (a reality for D. madagascariensis and I. indri). In sum, Makira lemurs were overharvested. Regional extirpations, which may contribute to broad-scale extinctions, will be likely if current hunting rates persist. Cessation of anthropogenic lemur harvest is a conservation priority, and development programs are needed to help communities switch from wildlife consumption to domestic protein alternatives.