A general framework to quantify and compare ecological impacts under temporal dynamics

Biodiversity is diminishing at alarming rates due to multiple anthropogenic drivers. To mitigate these drivers, their impacts must be quantified accurately and comparably across drivers. To enable that, we present a generally applicable framework introducing fundamental principles of ecological impact quantification, including the quantification of interactions between multiple drivers. The framework contrasts biodiversity variables in impacted against those in unimpacted or other reference situations while accounting for their temporal dynamics through modelling. Properly accounting for temporal dynamics reduces biases in impact quantification and comparison. The framework addresses key questions around ecological impacts in global change science, namely, how to compare impacts under temporal dynamics across stressors, how to account for stressor interactions in such comparisons, and how to compare the success of management actions over time.

Landscape-scale benefits of protected areas for tropical biodiversity

The United Nations recently agreed to major expansions of global protected areas (PAs) to slow biodiversity declines1. However, although reserves often reduce habitat loss, their efficacy at preserving animal diversity and their influence on biodiversity in surrounding unprotected areas remain unclear2-5. Unregulated hunting can empty PAs of large animals6, illegal tree felling can degrade habitat quality7, and parks can simply displace disturbances such as logging and hunting to unprotected areas of the landscape8 (a phenomenon called leakage). Alternatively, well-functioning PAs could enhance animal diversity within reserves as well as in nearby unprotected sites9 (an effect called spillover). Here we test whether PAs across mega-diverse Southeast Asia contribute to vertebrate conservation inside and outside their boundaries. Reserves increased all facets of bird diversity. Large reserves were also associated with substantially enhanced mammal diversity in the adjacent unprotected landscape. Rather than PAs generating leakage that deteriorated ecological conditions elsewhere, our results are consistent with PAs inducing spillover that benefits biodiversity in surrounding areas. These findings support the United Nations goal of achieving 30% PA coverage by 2030 by demonstrating that PAs are associated with higher vertebrate diversity both inside their boundaries and in the broader landscape.

Measuring the Impact of Conservation: The Growing Importance of Monitoring Fauna, Flora and Funga

Many stakeholders, from governments to civil society to businesses, lack the data they need to make informed decisions on biodiversity, jeopardising efforts to conserve, restore and sustainably manage nature. Here we review the importance of enhancing biodiversity monitoring, assess the challenges involved and identify potential solutions. Capacity for biodiversity monitoring needs to be enhanced urgently, especially in poorer, high-biodiversity countries where data gaps are disproportionately high. Modern tools and technologies, including remote sensing, bioacoustics and environmental DNA, should be used at larger scales to fill taxonomic and geographic data gaps, especially in the tropics, in marine and freshwater biomes, and for plants, fungi and invertebrates. Stakeholders need to follow best monitoring practices, adopting appropriate indicators and using counterfactual approaches to measure and attribute outcomes and impacts. Data should be made openly and freely available. Companies need to invest in collecting the data required to enhance sustainability in their operations and supply chains. With governments soon to commit to the post-2020 global biodiversity framework, the time is right to make a concerted push on monitoring. However, action at scale is needed now if we are to enhance results-based management adequately to conserve the biodiversity and ecosystem services we all depend on.

Decrease in Carabid Beetles in Grasslands of Northwestern China: Further Evidence of Insect Biodiversity Loss

Ground-dwelling beetles are important functional components in nutrient-poor grasslands of middle temperate steppe ecosystems in China. Here, we assessed the changes in ground beetle (Coleoptera: Carabidae) communities in the grasslands of northwestern China over 12 years to improve the management and conservation of beetles all over the world. The Generalized Additive Model (GAM) was applied to estimate the changes in carabid beetle communities in two regions: a desert steppe (Yanchi region), and a typical steppe and meadow steppe (Guyuan region). During the 12-year investigation, a total of 34 species were captured. We found that species abundance and richness per survey declined by 0.2 and 11.2%, respectively. Precipitation was the main factor affecting the distribution of carabid beetles. A distinct decline in carabid beetle species in the Yanchi region indicated that they may be threatened by less precipitation and loss of habitat, which could be due to climate change. Overall, species richness was stable in the Guyuan region. It is necessary to estimate and monitor the changes in carabid beetle communities in a temperate steppe of northern China and to protect them. Extensive desertification seriously threatens the distribution of carabid beetles. Future research should develop methods to protect carabid beetle communities in temperate steppes in China.

Frontiers of protected areas versus forest exploitation: Assessing habitat network functionality in 16 case study regions globally

Exploitation of natural forests forms expanding frontiers. Simultaneously, protected area frontiers aim at maintaining functional habitat networks. To assess net effects of these frontiers, we examined 16 case study areas on five continents. We (1) mapped protected area instruments, (2) assessed their effectiveness, (3) mapped policy implementation tools, and (4) effects on protected areas originating from their surroundings. Results are given as follows: (1) conservation instruments covered 3-77%, (2) effectiveness of habitat networks depended on representativeness, habitat quality, functional connectivity, resource extraction in protected areas, time for landscape restoration, "paper parks", "fortress conservation", and data access, (3) regulatory policy instruments dominated over economic and informational, (4) negative matrix effects dominated over positive ones (protective forests, buffer zones, inaccessibility), which were restricted to former USSR and Costa Rica. Despite evidence-based knowledge about conservation targets, the importance of spatial segregation of conservation and use, and traditional knowledge, the trajectories for biodiversity conservation were generally negative.

Annual changes in the Biodiversity Intactness Index in tropical and subtropical forest biomes, 2001-2012

Few biodiversity indicators are available that reflect the state of broad-sense biodiversity—rather than of particular taxa—at fine spatial and temporal resolution. One such indicator, the Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII), estimates how the average abundance of the native terrestrial species in a region compares with their abundances in the absence of pronounced human impacts. We produced annual maps of modelled BII at 30-arc-second resolution (roughly 1 km at the equator) across tropical and subtropical forested biomes, by combining annual data on land use, human population density and road networks, and statistical models of how these variables affect overall abundance and compositional similarity of plants, fungi, invertebrates and vertebrates. Across tropical and subtropical biomes, BII fell by an average of 1.9 percentage points between 2001 and 2012, with 81 countries seeing an average reduction and 43 an average increase; the extent of primary forest fell by 3.9% over the same period. We did not find strong relationships between changes in BII and countries’ rates of economic growth over the same period; however, limitations in mapping BII in plantation forests may hinder our ability to identify these relationships. This is the first time temporal change in BII has been estimated across such a large region.

Changes of Phylogenetic and Taxonomic Diversity of Odonata (Insecta) in Response to Land Use in Amazonia

Changes in natural habitats for human use can alter the distribution of biodiversity, favoring species that are more tolerant to environmental disturbance. Usually, these species comprise clades of habitat generalists, which have biological mechanisms to colonize environments with different environmental conditions. However, such effects are still poorly understood for most biological groups, such as the Amazon odonates. Therefore, this study aims to evaluate the effects of land use along an environmental gradient on the phylogenetic and taxonomic diversity of Odonata in the Amazon. We tested the following hypotheses: In deforested areas (e.g., pasture for cattle, palm plantation, and logging), the Odonata community will be more taxonomically and phylogenetically impoverished than in forested areas. We assume that the modification of the natural habitat causes loss of specialist forest species and favors specialist species of open areas and/or habitat generalists. Data sampling was performed in 195 streams under different land-use types: livestock areas, palm monoculture, timber exploitation, and forest areas taken as reference sites. Our results showed that anthropogenic impacts affected the phylogenetic diversity of odonates and the increase in shrub vegetation was related to the increase in the phylogenetic diversity of communities. On the other hand, shrub vegetation is indicative of disturbed areas, where secondary vegetation predominates, with less canopy cover due to the absence or discontinuity of the native tree cover in these habitats. Nonetheless, species richness and abundance were not related to the effects of anthropogenic land use. Finally, our results suggest that the phylogenetic diversity of Amazonian odonates is related to riparian vegetation structure.

Managing propagule pressure to prevent invasive species establishments: propagule size, number, and risk-release curve

There is considerable evidence that keeping propagule pressure low can drastically reduce establishment probability of potential invasive species. Yet, most management plans and research efforts fail to explicitly acknowledge all three of the components of propagule pressure: size, number, and the risk-release relationship. It is unclear how failing to specify one or more of these components can influence the efficacy of management plans in preventing invasive species establishment. Furthermore, even if all components are acknowledged and quantified, there currently is no mathematical tool available to calculate the levels of propagule pressure that ensure attainment of a predetermined, and system-specific, target establishment probability. Here, we quantify the resulting uncertainty in establishment probability when one or more components of propagule pressure is unknown by using parameter uncertainty analysis on realistic values of propagule pressure. In addition, to aid in the development of management plans that explicitly set propagule pressure limits, we develop a propagule-pressure sensitivity analysis that we use to determine the required reduction in levels for propagule size and number (representative of management actions) to maintain a target establishment probability. We show that the precision of establishment estimates is highly dependent on knowledge of all three propagule pressure components, where the possible range of values for establishment probability can vary by over 50% without full specification. In addition, our sensitivity analysis showed that propagule size and number can be altered independently or in conjunction to lower establishment probability below a target level. Importantly, our sensitivity analysis was able to specifically quantify how much reduction in a propagule pressure component(s) is needed to reach a given target establishment probability. Our findings suggest that quantifying the three components of propagule pressure should be a priority for invasive species prevention moving forward. Furthermore, our sensitivity analysis tool can serve to guide the development of new invasive species management plans in a transparent and quantitative manner. Together with information on the costs associated with approaches to reducing propagule pressure, our tool can be used to identify the most cost-effective approach to prevent invasive species establishments.

Matching biodiversity indicators to policy needs

At the global scale, biodiversity indicators are typically used to monitor general trends, but are rarely implemented with specific purpose or linked directly to decision making. Some indicators are better suited to predicting future change, others are more appropriate for evaluating past actions, but this is seldom made explicit. We developed a conceptual model for assigning biodiversity indicators to appropriate functions based on a common approach used in economics. Using the model, indicators can be classified as leading (indicators that change before the subject of interest, informing preventative actions), coincident (indicators that measure the subject of interest), or lagging (indicators that change after the subject of interest has changed and thus can be used to evaluate past actions). We classified indicators based on ecological theory on biodiversity response times and management objectives in 2 case studies: global species extinction and marine ecosystem collapse. For global species extinctions, indicators of abundance (e.g., the Living Planet Index or biodiversity intactness index) were most likely to respond first, as leading indicators that inform preventative action, while extinction indicators were expected to respond slowly, acting as lagging indicators flagging the need for evaluation. For marine ecosystem collapse, indicators of direct responses to fishing were expected to be leading, while those measuring ecosystem collapse could be lagging. Classification defines an active role for indicators within the policy cycle, creates an explicit link to preventative decision-making, and supports preventative action.

Response of the Zygopteran Community (Odonata: Insecta) to Change in Environmental Integrity Driven by Urbanization in Eastern Amazonian Streams

The accelerated and disordered growth of large urban centers has caused a significant loss of biodiversity and the negative effects are more significant in aquatic environments. Thus, the objective of this study is to assess the effects of environmental change due to urbanization in the abundance and biomass patterns of species belonging to the Zygoptera suborder. We tested the hypothesis that, in altered streams, there will be a predominance of organisms with fast growth and small biomass (r-strategists), and intermediate streams will have an overlapping of r and k-strategists. In control streams, there will be a predominance of k-strategists, with slow growth, decreased abundance, and high biomass. Urban expansion in Amazonian streams will cause loss of Zygoptera species richness. Streams draining urban areas will have higher air temperatures than control streams. Thus, small-sized and less abundant species will be favored. We sampled 15 streams in the metropolitan area of Belém. Sites were classified, using the index of physical habitat integrity, as control, intermediate and altered. Comparisons between biomass and abundance were analyzed using W Statistics. Our analyses showed that: the effects of urbanization cause loss of k-strategists and favors r-strategists, once abundance was placed above biomass; in intermediate environments, contrary to what we expected, there was no overlapping of strategies, once r-strategists were also placed above k-strategists; in control environments, biomass was placed above abundance, suggesting these environments have a predominance of k-strategist species, as we suggested; and we observed increased levels of temperature favor the most abundant species, the ones having generalist biological mechanisms; however, contrary to what we expected, there was no difference in richness. With these results, we reinforce the need for public policies to create or maintain the riparian forest along streams running through urban areas and create or maintain urban parks.

Ecological risks of imidacloprid to aquatic species in the Netherlands: Measured and estimated concentrations compared to species sensitivity distributions

Recent declines of insects' biomass have been a major point of interest. While several causes, including use of neonicotinoids like imidacloprid, have been suggested, scientific underpinning is limited. The aim of our study was to assess the potential risk of imidacloprid for freshwater fauna in the Netherlands and to validate the SimpleBox model to allow application elsewhere. To this end, we compared imidacloprid concentrations estimated from emissions using the SimpleBox model to measurements obtained from monitoring databases and calculated the ecological risk based on measured concentrations for aquatic fauna. Imidacloprid concentration estimations were within the range measured, opening opportunities for application of SimpleBox to regions where measurements are limited. Aquatic insects were found to be most sensitive to imidacloprid while amphibians and fish are least sensitive to imidacloprid. In particular, the ecological risk of measured imidacloprid concentration in the Netherlands was 1%, implying that concentrations frequently exceed levels that are lethal in short-term experiments. Hence, based on lab toxicity data, the present study suggests that imidacloprid concentrations can be high enough to explain insect decline observed in the same areas.

Dry biobanking as a conservation tool in the Anthropocene

Species are going extinct at an alarming rate, termed by some as the sixth mass extinction event in the history of Earth. Many are the causes for this but in the end, all converge to one entity - humans. Since we are the cause, we also hold the key to making the change. Any change, however, will take time, and for some species this could be too long. While working on possible solutions, we also have the responsibility to buy time for those species on the verge of extinction. Genome resource banks, in the form of cryobanks, where samples are maintained under liquid nitrogen, are already in existence but they come with a host of drawbacks. Biomimicry - innovation inspired by Nature, has been a huge source for ideas. Searching methods that Nature utilizes to preserve biological systems for extended periods of time, we realize that drying rather than freezing is the method of choice. We thus argue here in favor of preserving at least part of the samples from critically endangered species in dry biobanks, a much safer, cost-effective, biobanking approach.

Compatibility between agendas for improving human development and wildlife conservation outside protected areas: Insights from 20 years of data

The UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) include economic, social and environmental dimensions of human development and make explicit commitments to all of life on Earth. Evidence of continuing global biodiversity loss has, at the same time, led to a succession of internationally agreed conservation targets.With multiple targets (even within one policy realm, e.g. the CBD Aichi Targets for biodiversity), it is possible for different indicators to respond in the same direction, in opposite directions or to show no particular relationship. When considering the different sectors of the SDGs, there are many possible relationships among indicators that have been widely discussed, but rarely analysed in detail.Here, we present a comparative cross-national analysis exploring temporally integrated linkages between human development indicators and wildlife conservation trends.The results suggest that in lower income countries there are negative relationships between measures of human population growth and bird and mammal population abundance trends outside protected areas.The results also suggest a positive relationship between economic growth and wildlife population trends in lower income countries. We stress, however, the need for future research to further explore the relationships between economic growth and natural resource-based imports.Our results highlight a clear potential for compatibility of the conservation and development agendas and support the need for further integration among sustainable development strategies. A free Plain Language Summary can be found within the Supporting Information of this article.

Improving collaboration in the implementation of global biodiversity conventions

Eight conventions make up the biodiversity cluster of multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) that provide the critical international legal framework for the conservation and sustainable use of nature. However, concerns about the rate of implementation of the conventions at the national level have triggered discussions about the effectiveness of these MEAs in halting the loss of biodiversity. Two main concerns have emerged: lack of capacity and resources and lack of coherence in implementing multiple conventions. We focused on the latter and considered the mechanisms by which international conventions are translated into national policy. Specifically, we examined how the Strategic Plan for Biodiversity 2011-2020 and the associated Aichi Biodiversity Targets have functioned as a unifying grand plan for biodiversity conservation. This strategic plan has been used to coordinate and align targets to promote and enable more effective implementation across all biodiversity-related conventions. Results of a survey of 139 key stakeholders from 88 countries suggests streamlining across ministries and agencies, improved coordination mechanisms with all relevant stakeholders, and better knowledge sharing between conventions could improve cooperation among biodiversity-related conventions. The roadmap for improving synergies among conventions agreed to at the 13th Convention on Biological Diversity's Conference of Parties in 2016 includes actions such as mechanisms to avoid duplication in national reporting and monitoring on conventions and capacity building related to information and knowledge sharing. We suggest the scientific community can actively engage and contribute to the policy process by establishing a science-policy platform to address knowledge gaps; improving data gathering, reporting, and monitoring; developing indicators that adequately support implementation of national plans and strategies; and providing evidence-based recommendations to policy makers. The latter will be particularly important as 2020 approaches and work to develop a new biodiversity agenda for the next decade is beginning.

Deciphering the drivers of negative species-genetic diversity correlation in Alpine amphibians

The evolutionary and ecological importance of neutral and adaptive genetic diversity is widely recognized. Nevertheless, genetic diversity is rarely assessed for conservation planning, which often implicitly assumes a positive correlation between species and genetic diversity. Multiple drivers can cause the co-variation between the genetic diversity of one species and the richness of the whole communities, and explicit tests are needed to identify the processes that can determine species-genetic diversity correlations (SGDCs). Here, we tested whether intrapopulation genetic diversity (at neutral loci) and species richness co-vary in the amphibian communities of a southern Alpine region (Trentino, Italy), using the common frog (Rana temporaria) as focal species for the study of genetic diversity. We also analysed ecological similarity, niche overlap and interspecific interactions between the species, to unravel the processes determining SGDC. The neutral genetic diversity of common frogs was negatively related to species richness. The negative SGDC was probably due to an opposite influence of environmental gradients on the two levels of biodiversity, since the focal species and the other amphibians differ in ecological preferences, particularly in terms of thermal optimum. Conversely, we did not find evidence for a role of interspecific interactions in the negative SGDC. Our findings stress that species richness cannot be used as a universal proxy for genetic diversity, and only combining SGDC with analyses on the determinants of biodiversity can allow to identify the processes determining the relationships between genetic and species diversity.

Evolutionary Hotspots of Seed Plants in Subtropical China: A Comparison With Species Diversity Hotspots of Woody Seed Plants

Genetic diversity is a fundamental level of biodiversity. However, it is frequently neglected in conservation prioritization because intraspecific genetic diversity is difficult to measure at large scales. In this study, we synthesized population genetic or phylogeographic datasets of 33 seed plants in subtropical China into multi-species genetic landscapes. The genetic landscapes identified 18 evolutionary hotspots with high within-population genetic diversity (WGD), and among-population genetic diversity (AGD), or both. The western subtropical China is rich in AGD (possessing four major AGD hotspots), deserving a high conservation priority. We found that WGD was positively correlated with longitude, with most WGD hotspots locating in east subtropical China. The results showed that the locations of 12 of 18 evolutionary hotspots corresponded approximately to those of previously identified species diversity (SD) hotspots, however, a positive and significant correlation existed only between AGD and SD, not between WGD and SD. Therefore, spatial patterns of species richness in plants in subtropical China cannot generally be used as surrogate for their intraspecific diversity. This study identified multi-species evolutionary hotspots and correlated multi-species genetic diversity with SD across subtropical China for the first time, providing profound implications for the conservation of biodiversity in this important ecoregion.

Spatial and topical imbalances in biodiversity research

The rapid erosion of biodiversity is among the biggest challenges human society is facing. Concurrently, major efforts are in place to quantify changes in biodiversity, to understand the consequences for ecosystem functioning and human wellbeing, and to develop sustainable management strategies. Based on comprehensive bibliometric analyses covering 134,321 publications, we report systematic spatial biases in biodiversity-related research. Research is dominated by wealthy countries, while major research deficits occur in regions with disproportionately high biodiversity as well as a high share of threatened species. Similarly, core scientists, who were assessed through their publication impact, work primarily in North America and Europe. Though they mainly exchange and collaborate across locations of these two continents, the connectivity among them has increased with time. Finally, biodiversity-related research has primarily focused on terrestrial systems, plants, and the species level, and is frequently conducted in Europe and Asia by researchers affiliated with European and North American institutions. The distinct spatial imbalances in biodiversity research, as demonstrated here, must be filled, research capacity built, particularly in the Global South, and spatially-explicit biodiversity data bases improved, curated and shared.

Essential ocean variables for global sustained observations of biodiversity and ecosystem changes

Sustained observations of marine biodiversity and ecosystems focused on specific conservation and management problems are needed around the world to effectively mitigate or manage changes resulting from anthropogenic pressures. These observations, while complex and expensive, are required by the international scientific, governance and policy communities to provide baselines against which the effects of human pressures and climate change may be measured and reported, and resources allocated to implement solutions. To identify biological and ecological essential ocean variables (EOVs) for implementation within a global ocean observing system that is relevant for science, informs society, and technologically feasible, we used a driver-pressure-state-impact-response (DPSIR) model. We (1) examined relevant international agreements to identify societal drivers and pressures on marine resources and ecosystems, (2) evaluated the temporal and spatial scales of variables measured by 100+ observing programs, and (3) analysed the impact and scalability of these variables and how they contribute to address societal and scientific issues. EOVs were related to the status of ecosystem components (phytoplankton and zooplankton biomass and diversity, and abundance and distribution of fish, marine turtles, birds and mammals), and to the extent and health of ecosystems (cover and composition of hard coral, seagrass, mangrove and macroalgal canopy). Benthic invertebrate abundance and distribution and microbe diversity and biomass were identified as emerging EOVs to be developed based on emerging requirements and new technologies. The temporal scale at which any shifts in biological systems will be detected will vary across the EOVs, the properties being monitored and the length of the existing time-series. Global implementation to deliver useful products will require collaboration of the scientific and policy sectors and a significant commitment to improve human and infrastructure capacity across the globe, including the development of new, more automated observing technologies, and encouraging the application of international standards and best practices.

The global avian invasions atlas, a database of alien bird distributions worldwide

The introduction of species to locations where they do not naturally occur (termed aliens) can have far-reaching and unpredictable environmental and economic consequences. Therefore there is a strong incentive to stem the tide of alien species introduction and spread. In order to identify broad patterns and processes of alien invasions, a spatially referenced, global dataset on the historical introductions and alien distributions of a complete taxonomic group is required. Here we present the Global Avian Invasions Atlas (GAVIA)—a new spatial and temporal dataset comprising 27,723 distribution records for 971 alien bird species introduced to 230 countries and administrative areas spanning the period 6000BCE—AD2014. GAVIA was initiated to provide a unified database of records on alien bird introductions, incorporating records from all stages of invasion, including introductions that have failed as well as those that have succeeded. GAVIA represents the most comprehensive resource on the global distribution of alien species in any major taxon, allowing the spatial and temporal dynamics of alien bird distributions to be examined.

Taxonomic bias and international biodiversity conservation research

While greater research on threatened species alone cannot ensure their protection, understanding taxonomic bias may be helpful to address knowledge gaps in order to identify research directions and inform policy. Using data for over 10 000 animal species listed on the International Union for Conservation of Nature Red List, we investigated taxonomic and geographic biodiversity conservation research trends worldwide. We found extreme bias in conservation research effort on threatened vertebrates compared with lesser-studied invertebrates in both terrestrial and aquatic habitats at a global scale. Based on an analysis of common threats affecting vertebrates and invertebrates, we suggest a path forward for narrowing the research gap between threatened vertebrates and invertebrates.

Assessing National Biodiversity Trends for Rocky and Coral Reefs through the Integration of Citizen Science and Scientific Monitoring Programs

Reporting progress against targets for international biodiversity agreements is hindered by a shortage of suitable biodiversity data. We describe a cost-effective system involving Reef Life Survey citizen scientists in the systematic collection of quantitative data covering multiple phyla that can underpin numerous marine biodiversity indicators at high spatial and temporal resolution. We then summarize the findings of a continental- and decadal-scale State of the Environment assessment for rocky and coral reefs based on indicators of ecosystem state relating to fishing, ocean warming, and invasive species and describing the distribution of threatened species. Fishing impacts are widespread, whereas substantial warming-related change affected some regions between 2005 and 2015. Invasive species are concentrated near harbors in southeastern Australia, and the threatened-species index is highest for the Great Australian Bight and Tasman Sea. Our approach can be applied globally to improve reporting against biodiversity targets and enhance public and policymakers' understanding of marine biodiversity trends.

The Diversity-Weighted Living Planet Index: Controlling for Taxonomic Bias in a Global Biodiversity Indicator

As threats to species continue to increase, precise and unbiased measures of the impact these pressures are having on global biodiversity are urgently needed. Some existing indicators of the status and trends of biodiversity largely rely on publicly available data from the scientific and grey literature, and are therefore prone to biases introduced through over-representation of well-studied groups and regions in monitoring schemes. This can give misleading estimates of biodiversity trends. Here, we report on an approach to tackle taxonomic and geographic bias in one such indicator (Living Planet Index) by accounting for the estimated number of species within biogeographical realms, and the relative diversity of species within them. Based on a proportionally weighted index, we estimate a global population decline in vertebrate species between 1970 and 2012 of 58% rather than 20% from an index with no proportional weighting. From this data set, comprising 14,152 populations of 3,706 species from 3,095 data sources, we also find that freshwater populations have declined by 81%, marine populations by 36%, and terrestrial populations by 38% when using proportional weighting (compared to trends of -46%, +12% and +15% respectively). These results not only show starker declines than previously estimated, but suggests that those species for which there is poorer data coverage may be declining more rapidly.

Contrasting changes in the abundance and diversity of North American bird assemblages from 1971 to 2010

Although it is generally recognized that global biodiversity is declining, few studies have examined long-term changes in multiple biodiversity dimensions simultaneously. In this study, we quantified and compared temporal changes in the abundance, taxonomic diversity, functional diversity, and phylogenetic diversity of bird assemblages, using roadside monitoring data of the North American Breeding Bird Survey from 1971 to 2010. We calculated 12 abundance and diversity metrics based on 5-year average abundances of 519 species for each of 768 monitoring routes. We did this for all bird species together as well as for four subgroups based on breeding habitat affinity (grassland, woodland, wetland, and shrubland breeders). The majority of the biodiversity metrics increased or remained constant over the study period, whereas the overall abundance of birds showed a pronounced decrease, primarily driven by declines of the most abundant species. These results highlight how stable or even increasing metrics of taxonomic, functional, or phylogenetic diversity may occur in parallel with substantial losses of individuals. We further found that patterns of change differed among the species subgroups, with both abundance and diversity increasing for woodland birds and decreasing for grassland breeders. The contrasting changes between abundance and diversity and among the breeding habitat groups underscore the relevance of a multifaceted approach to measuring biodiversity change. Our findings further stress the importance of monitoring the overall abundance of individuals in addition to metrics of taxonomic, functional, or phylogenetic diversity, thus confirming the importance of population abundance as an essential biodiversity variable.

Phenological sensitivity to climate across taxa and trophic levels

Differences in phenological responses to climate change among species can desynchronise ecological interactions and thereby threaten ecosystem function. To assess these threats, we must quantify the relative impact of climate change on species at different trophic levels. Here, we apply a Climate Sensitivity Profile approach to 10,003 terrestrial and aquatic phenological data sets, spatially matched to temperature and precipitation data, to quantify variation in climate sensitivity. The direction, magnitude and timing of climate sensitivity varied markedly among organisms within taxonomic and trophic groups. Despite this variability, we detected systematic variation in the direction and magnitude of phenological climate sensitivity. Secondary consumers showed consistently lower climate sensitivity than other groups. We used mid-century climate change projections to estimate that the timing of phenological events could change more for primary consumers than for species in other trophic levels (6.2 versus 2.5-2.9 days earlier on average), with substantial taxonomic variation (1.1-14.8 days earlier on average).

Relating costs to the user value of farmland biodiversity measurements

The impact of agricultural management on global biodiversity highlights the need for farm-scale monitoring programmes capable of determining the performance of agriculture practices. Yet the identification of appropriate indicators is a challenging process and one that involves considering a number of different aspects and requirements. Besides the attention given to scientific effectiveness, relevant but less studied issues related to biodiversity measurements include the economic feasibility of monitoring programmes and the relevance of indicators for different end-users. In this paper, we combine an analytic assessment of costs and a stakeholder-based evaluation of the usefulness of a set of biodiversity-related parameters (habitat mapping, vegetation, bees, earthworms, spiders, and a farmer questionnaire) tested for scientific consistency in 12 European case studies and on more than 14,000 ha of farmland. The results point to the possibility of meeting the expectations of different end-users (administrators, farmers and consumers) with a common indicator set. Combining costs and usefulness also suggests the possibility of designing more efficient monitoring approaches involving private agencies and networks of volunteers and farmers for the field data collection at different stages of a monitoring programme. Although complex, such an approach would make it possible to enhance the effectiveness of available funds for farmland biodiversity monitoring.

Toward equality of biodiversity knowledge through technology transfer

To help stem the continuing decline of biodiversity, effective transfer of technology from resource-rich to biodiversity-rich countries is required. Biodiversity technology as defined by the Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) is a complex term, encompassing a wide variety of activities and interest groups. As yet, there is no robust framework by which to monitor the extent to which technology transfer might benefit biodiversity. We devised a definition of biodiversity technology and a framework for the monitoring of technology transfer between CBD signatories. Biodiversity technology within the scope of the CBD encompasses hard and soft technologies that are relevant to the conservation and sustainable use of biodiversity, or make use of genetic resources, and that relate to all aspects of the CBD, with a particular focus on technology transfer from resource-rich to biodiversity-rich countries. Our proposed framework introduces technology transfer as a response indicator: technology transfer is increased to stem pressures on biodiversity. We suggest an initial approach of tracking technology flow between countries; charting this flow is likely to be a one-to-many relationship (i.e., the flow of a specific technology from one country to multiple countries). Future developments should then focus on integrating biodiversity technology transfer into the current pressure-state-response indicator framework favored by the CBD (i.e., measuring the influence of technology transfer on changes in state and pressure variables). Structured national reporting is important to obtaining metrics relevant to technology and knowledge transfer. Interim measures, that can be used to assess biodiversity technology or knowledge status while more in-depth indicators are being developed, include the number of species inventories, threatened species lists, or national red lists; databases on publications and project funding may provide measures of international cooperation. Such a pragmatic approach, followed by rigorous testing of specific technology transfer metrics submitted by CBD signatories in a standardized manner may in turn improve the focus of future targets on technology transfer for biodiversity conservation.

Green Plants in the Red: A Baseline Global Assessment for the IUCN Sampled Red List Index for Plants

Plants provide fundamental support systems for life on Earth and are the basis for all terrestrial ecosystems; a decline in plant diversity will be detrimental to all other groups of organisms including humans. Decline in plant diversity has been hard to quantify, due to the huge numbers of known and yet to be discovered species and the lack of an adequate baseline assessment of extinction risk against which to track changes. The biodiversity of many remote parts of the world remains poorly known, and the rate of new assessments of extinction risk for individual plant species approximates the rate at which new plant species are described. Thus the question 'How threatened are plants?' is still very difficult to answer accurately. While completing assessments for each species of plant remains a distant prospect, by assessing a randomly selected sample of species the Sampled Red List Index for Plants gives, for the first time, an accurate view of how threatened plants are across the world. It represents the first key phase of ongoing efforts to monitor the status of the world's plants. More than 20% of plant species assessed are threatened with extinction, and the habitat with the most threatened species is overwhelmingly tropical rain forest, where the greatest threat to plants is anthropogenic habitat conversion, for arable and livestock agriculture, and harvesting of natural resources. Gymnosperms (e.g. conifers and cycads) are the most threatened group, while a third of plant species included in this study have yet to receive an assessment or are so poorly known that we cannot yet ascertain whether they are threatened or not. This study provides a baseline assessment from which trends in the status of plant biodiversity can be measured and periodically reassessed.

The PREDICTS database: a global database of how local terrestrial biodiversity responds to human impacts

Biodiversity continues to decline in the face of increasing anthropogenic pressures such as habitat destruction, exploitation, pollution and introduction of alien species. Existing global databases of species’ threat status or population time series are dominated by charismatic species. The collation of datasets with broad taxonomic and biogeographic extents, and that support computation of a range of biodiversity indicators, is necessary to enable better understanding of historical declines and to project – and avert – future declines. We describe and assess a new database of more than 1.6 million samples from 78 countries representing over 28,000 species, collated from existing spatial comparisons of local-scale biodiversity exposed to different intensities and types of anthropogenic pressures, from terrestrial sites around the world. The database contains measurements taken in 208 (of 814) ecoregions, 13 (of 14) biomes, 25 (of 35) biodiversity hotspots and 16 (of 17) megadiverse countries. The database contains more than 1% of the total number of all species described, and more than 1% of the described species within many taxonomic groups – including flowering plants, gymnosperms, birds, mammals, reptiles, amphibians, beetles, lepidopterans and hymenopterans. The dataset, which is still being added to, is therefore already considerably larger and more representative than those used by previous quantitative models of biodiversity trends and responses. The database is being assembled as part of the PREDICTS project (Projecting Responses of Ecological Diversity In Changing Terrestrial Systems – http://www.predicts.org.uk). We make site-level summary data available alongside this article. The full database will be publicly available in 2015.

A biodiversity indicators dashboard: addressing challenges to monitoring progress towards the Aichi biodiversity targets using disaggregated global data

Recognizing the imperiled status of biodiversity and its benefit to human well-being, the world's governments committed in 2010 to take effective and urgent action to halt biodiversity loss through the Convention on Biological Diversity's "Aichi Targets". These targets, and many conservation programs, require monitoring to assess progress toward specific goals. However, comprehensive and easily understood information on biodiversity trends at appropriate spatial scales is often not available to the policy makers, managers, and scientists who require it. We surveyed conservation stakeholders in three geographically diverse regions of critical biodiversity concern (the Tropical Andes, the African Great Lakes, and the Greater Mekong) and found high demand for biodiversity indicator information but uneven availability. To begin to address this need, we present a biodiversity "dashboard"--a visualization of biodiversity indicators designed to enable tracking of biodiversity and conservation performance data in a clear, user-friendly format. This builds on previous, more conceptual, indicator work to create an operationalized online interface communicating multiple indicators at multiple spatial scales. We structured this dashboard around the Pressure-State-Response-Benefit framework, selecting four indicators to measure pressure on biodiversity (deforestation rate), state of species (Red List Index), conservation response (protection of key biodiversity areas), and benefits to human populations (freshwater provision). Disaggregating global data, we present dashboard maps and graphics for the three regions surveyed and their component countries. These visualizations provide charts showing regional and national trends and lay the foundation for a web-enabled, interactive biodiversity indicators dashboard. This new tool can help track progress toward the Aichi Targets, support national monitoring and reporting, and inform outcome-based policy-making for the protection of natural resources.

Large-scale genetic survey provides insights into the captive management and reintroduction of giant pandas

The captive genetic management of threatened species strives to preserve genetic diversity and avoid inbreeding to ensure populations remain available, healthy, and viable for future reintroduction. Determining and responding to the genetic status of captive populations is therefore paramount to these programs. Here, we genotyped 19 microsatellite loci for 240 captive giant pandas (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) (∼64% of the captive population) from four breeding centers, Wolong (WL), Chengdu (CD), Louguantai (LGT), and Beijing (BJ), and analyzed 655 bp of mitochondrial DNA control region sequence for 220 of these animals. High levels of genetic diversity and low levels of inbreeding were estimated in the breeding centers, indicating that the captive population is genetically healthy and deliberate further genetic input from wild animals is unnecessary. However, the LGT population faces a higher risk of inbreeding, and significant genetic structure was detected among breeding centers, with LGT-CD and WL-BJ clustering separately. Based on these findings, we highlight that: 1) the LGT population should be managed as an independent captive population to resemble the genetic distinctness of their Qinling Mountain origins; 2) exchange between CD and WL should be encouraged because of similar wild founder sources; 3) the selection of captive individuals for reintroduction should consider their geographic origin, genetic background, and genetic contribution to wild populations; and 4) combining our molecular genetic data with existing pedigree data will better guide giant panda breeding and further reduce inbreeding into the future.

Measuring the accuracy of management effectiveness evaluations of protected areas

Evaluating the effectiveness of protected area management to help improve management outcomes is becoming an increasingly common practice. The evaluation tools developed and implemented in over 100 countries generally rely on the expert judgements of protected area managers. Despite the growing collection and use of management effectiveness evaluation data, there have been no previous attempts to measure the accuracy of these data. We measured the accuracy of managers' judgements about the conditions in their reserves by collecting independent field data. We also assessed how accurately the evaluation tool reflected managers' views by conducting semi-structured interviews with 23 protected area managers from New South Wales, Australia. We found that managers made highly accurate judgements of the extent of a common weed species, Rubus fruticosus (blackberry), but often misinterpreted the scope, scale and timeframe of the evaluation. These framing effects can lead to error being introduced into the evaluation dataset, affecting the precision of evaluations such that they cannot be reliably compared among reserves. We suggest that the wording of evaluation questions needs to be explicit about the assessment frame to minimize the influence of framing effects on management effectiveness evaluations.

Use it or lose it: measuring trends in wild species subject to substantial use

The unsustainable use of wild animals and plants is thought to be a significant driver of biodiversity loss in many regions of the world. The international community has therefore called for action to ensure the sustainable use of living resources and safeguard them for future generations. Indicators that can track changes in populations of species used by humans are essential tools for measuring progress towards these ideals and informing management decisions. Here we present two indicators that could be used to track changes in populations of utilized vertebrate species and levels of harvest sustainability. Preliminary results based on sample data both at the global level and for the Arctic show that utilized species are faring better than other species overall. This could be a consequence of better management of these populations, as indicated by more sustainable harvest levels in recent decades. Limitations of the indicators are still apparent; in particular, there is a lack of data on harvested populations of some vertebrate classes and from certain regions. Focusing monitoring efforts on broadening the scope of data collected and identifying interactions with other potential drivers of decline will strengthen these indicators as policy tools and improve their potential to be incorporated into future sets of indicators to track progress towards global biodiversity targets.