ENSO drove 2500-year collapse of eastern Pacific coral reefs

RADReef: A global Holocene Reef Rate of Accretion Dataset

Reef cores are a powerful tool for investigating temporal changes in reef communities. Radiometric dating facilitates the determination of vertical accretion rates, which has allowed for examination of local-regional controlling factors, such as subsidence and sea level changes. Coral reefs must grow at sufficient rates to keep up with sea level rise, or risk 'drowning.' As sea level is expected to rise significantly in the next 100 years and beyond, it is important to understand whether reefs will be able to survive. Historical records of reef accretion rates extracted from cores provide valuable insights into extrinsic controlling factors of reef growth and are instrumental in helping predict if future reefs can accrete at rates needed to overcome predicted sea level changes. While extensive research exists at local and regional scales, limited attention has been given to identifying global patterns and drivers. To address this, we present "RADReef": A global dataset of dated Holocene reef cores. RADReef serves as a foundation for further research on past, present and future reef accretion.

Coral carbonate-bound isotopes reveal monsoonal influence on nitrogen sources in Southeastern China's Greater Bay Area from the mid-Holocene until the Anthropocene

Most anthropogenic nitrogen (N) reaches coastal waters via rivers carrying increasing loads of sewage, fertilizer, and sediments. To understand anthropogenic N impacts, we need to understand historical N-dynamics before human influence. Stable isotope ratios of N preserved in carbonates are one way to create temporal N records. However, records that span periods of human occupation are scarce, limiting our ability to contextualize modern N dynamics. Here, we produce a fossil-bound N-record using coral subfossils, spanning 6700 years in China's Greater Bay Area (GBA). We found that during the mid-to-late Holocene, the GBA's coastal N was dominated by fluvial sources. The weakening of the Asia monsoon throughout the late-Holocene decreased river outflow, leading to a relative increase of marine nitrate. This source shift from riverine-to-ocean dominance was overprinted by anthropogenic N. During the late 1980s to early 1990s, human development and associated effluent inundated the coastal system, contributing to the decline of coral communities.

The strength, position, and width changes of the intertropical convergence zone since the Last Glacial Maximum

The intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) plays a key role in regulating tropical hydroclimate and global water cycle through changes in its convection strength, latitudinal position, and width. The long-term variability of the ITCZ, along with the corresponding driving mechanisms, however, remains obscure, mainly because it is difficult to separate different ITCZ variables in paleoclimate proxy records. Here, we report a speleothem oxygen isotope (δ18O) record from southwestern Sulawesi, Indonesia, and compile it with other speleothem records from the Maritime Continent. Using the spatial gradient of speleothem δ18O along a transect across the ITCZ, we constrain ITCZ variabilities over the Maritime Continent during the past 30,000 y. We find that ITCZ convection strength overall intensified from the last glacial period to the Holocene, following changes in climate boundary conditions. The mean position of the regional ITCZ has moved latitudinally no more than 3° in the past 30,000 y, consistent with the deduction from the atmospheric energy framework. However, different from modern observations and model simulations for future warming, the ITCZ appeared narrower during both the late Holocene and most part of the last glacial period, and its expansion occurred during Heinrich stadials and the early-to-mid Holocene. We also find that during the last glacial and deglacial period, prominent millennial-scale ITCZ changes were closely tied to the variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), whereas during the Holocene, they were predominantly modulated by the long-term variability of the Walker circulation.

Fluctuating sea-level and reversing Monsoon winds drive Holocene lagoon infill in Southeast Asia

Many lagoons surrounded by reefs are partially or completely infilled with reef-derived detrital carbonate sediment. Sediment deposits in such restricted environments are archives of prevailing environmental conditions during lagoon infill. For Indonesia, no paleoenvironmental reconstructions based on Holocene lagoon sediments exist. Here we analyze the sedimentary record obtained from five percussion cores penetrating 10 m into the unconsolidated subsurface of a reef island in the Spermonde Archipelago, Indonesia. The combined compositional, textural and chronostratigraphic analyses reveal that the sedimentary infill of the lagoon underlying the island, starting 6900 years cal BP, was interrupted between 5800 and 4400 years cal BP, when sea level was ~ 0.5 m higher than at present, and monsoon intensity was lower. After the intensity of the monsoons increased to modern levels, and sea level dropped to its present position, lagoonal sedimentation was re-initiated and created the foundation for an island that built up since 3000 years cal BP. Our study provides the first geological evidence for the strong sensitivity of detrital carbonate systems in Indonesia to fluctuations in sea level and dominant wind direction. It thus sheds light on how changing environmental conditions in the context of global warming could affect the morphological development of reef systems, and thereby also habitable coastal areas.

Upwelling, climate change, and the shifting geography of coral reef development

The eastern tropical Pacific is oceanographically unfavorable for coral-reef development. Nevertheless, reefs have persisted there for the last 7000 years. Rates of vertical accretion during the Holocene have been similar in the strong-upwelling Gulf of Panamá (GoP) and the adjacent, weak-upwelling Gulf of Chiriquí (GoC); however, seasonal upwelling in the GoP exacerbated a climate-driven hiatus in reef development in the late Holocene. The situation is now reversed and seasonal upwelling in the GoP currently buffers thermal stress, creating a refuge for coral growth. We developed carbonate budget models to project the capacity of reefs in both gulfs to keep up with future sea-level rise. On average, the GoP had significantly higher net carbonate production rates than the GoC. With an estimated contemporary reef-accretion potential (RAP) of 5.5 mm year^-1, reefs in the GoP are projected to be able to keep up with sea-level rise if CO₂ emissions are reduced, but not under current emissions trajectories. With an estimated RAP of just 0.3 mm year^-1, reefs in the GoC are likely already unable to keep up with contemporary sea-level rise in Panamá (1.4 mm year^-1). Whereas the GoP has the potential to support functional reefs in the near-term, our study indicates that their long-term persistence will depend on reduction of greenhouse gases.

Holocene Fires and Ecological Novelty in the High Colombian Cordillera Oriental

Rapid climate changes and the increasing presence of humans define the Holocene Epoch (11.6 calibrated kiloyears before present – hereafter kyr BP), when biological systems have faced the most recent and abrupt environmental changes. Understanding how biodiversity responds to extrinsic factors requires determining the effects of varying climatic conditions, changes in disturbance regimes, and increasing anthropogenic impacts. Despite being one center for biodiversity, the potential synergies of long-term anthropogenic and climate changes in shaping areas of high Andean biodiversity have yet to be explored fully. Here we present new pollen and charcoal records from the Pantano de Monquentiva (hereafter Monquentiva) on the highlands of the eastern flank of the Colombian Cordillera Oriental (CCO) to document relationships between climate, vegetation, and fire through the Holocene. We found compositional transitions at 8.7, 6.1, and 4.1 kyr BP at Monquentiva resulting from the interaction of climate, fire, and human occupation. Reduced moisture and temperature caused a compositional shift in Páramo vegetation from ca. 8.7 kyr BP. Fire activity was recorded throughout the Holocene and increased slightly during the Mid-Holocene when regional and local fire decoupling suggested human activities as the source of ignition. Mid-Holocene fires had a large effect on the vegetation composition at Monquentiva which recorded a rapid shift at ca. 6.8 kyr BP. Fire activity increased sharply from 4.1 kyr BP, promoting the reorganization of plant communities at 3.8 kyr BP. This shift in fire activity was likely related to more severe ENSO events and subsequently intensified by human activities after 3.8 kyr BP. Although high climatic sensitivity explains most Holocene vegetation changes in the eastern flank of the CCO, our study highlights the relevance of fire activity, uneven distribution of climatic variables, and human intervention to the composition of the vegetation we see today.

Reef accumulation is decoupled from recent degradation in the central and southern Red Sea

Reefs are biogenic structures that result in three-dimensional accumulations of calcium carbonate. Over geological timescales, a positive balance between the production and accumulation of calcium carbonate versus erosional and off-reef transport processes maintains positive net accretion on reefs. Yet, how ecological processes occurring over decadal timescales translate to the accumulation of geological structures is poorly understood, in part due to a lack of studies with detailed time-constrained chronologies of reef accretion over decades to centuries. Here, we combined ecological surveys of living reefs with palaeoecological reconstructions and high-precision radiometric (U-Th) age-dating of fossil reefs represented in both reef sediment cores and surficial dead in situ corals, to reconstruct the history of community composition and carbonate accumulation across the central and southern Saudi Arabian Red Sea throughout the late Holocene. We found that reefs were primarily comprised of thermally tolerant massive Porites colonies, creating a consolidated coral framework, with unconsolidated branching coral rubble accumulating among massive corals on shallow (5-8 m depth) exposed (windward), and gently sloping reef slopes. These unconsolidated reef rubble fields were formed primarily from ex situ Acropora and Pocillopora coral fragments, infilled post deposition within a sedimentary matrix. Bayesian age-depth models revealed a process of punctuated deposition of post-mortem coral fragments transported from adjacent reef environments. That a large portion of Saudi Arabian Red Sea reef slopes is driven by allochthonous deposition (transportation) has important implications for modeling carbonate budgets and reef growth. In addition, a multi-decadal lag exists between the time of death for branching in situ coral and incorporation into the unconsolidated reef rubble. This indicates that recent climate related degradation in the 21st century has not had an immediately negative effect on reef building processes affecting a large portion of the reef area in the Saudi Arabian Red Sea.

Calcium carbonate production in the southernmost subtropical Atlantic coral reef

Emerging evidence have been supporting the idea that the better known South Atlantic coral reefs (located between 18°S and 24°S) are now essentially senescent structures that have experienced little or no additional vertical reef growth over the past millennia. This has often coincided with a shift to a dominance of non-coral calcifying organisms becoming the main CaCO₃ producers in these high latitude and marginal marine settings. Here, we used Calcification Accretion Units (CAUs) and census-based methods to measure non-coral rates of CaCO₃ production on the geologically senescent reef and adjacent rhodolith beds within the southernmost subtropical Atlantic reef (i.e., Queimada Grande Reef, QGR). The reef habitat is currently producing CaCO₃ at rates of ∼126 g m^-2 yr^-1. In contrast, fragments of dead corals skeletons deposited adjacent to the reef over the last ∼2000 years are now colonized by crustose coralline red algae. These form a rhodolith bed that produces CaCO₃ at rates of 858 g m^-2 yr^-1. Our results indicate that, whilst not sufficient to promote active net framework accumulation, CaCO₃ production by coralline algae and bryozoans on the QGR appears to be sufficient to at least limit net large-scale erosion of the underlying reef structure, allowing the reef structure to persist in a state close to budgetary stasis. Finally, our results are also of relevance for providing insights regarding the balance of CaCO₃ production/dissolution/erosion processes in coral reefs, especially in these less understood marginal reefs.

Climate and the latitudinal limits of subtropical reef development

Climate plays a central role in coral-reef development, especially in marginal environments. The high-latitude reefs of southeast Florida are currently non-accreting, relict systems with low coral cover. This region also did not support the extensive Late Pleistocene reef development observed in many other locations around the world; however, there is evidence of significant reef building in southeast Florida during the Holocene. Using 146 radiometric ages from reefs extending ~ 120 km along Florida's southeast coast, we test the hypothesis that the latitudinal extent of Holocene reef development in this region was modulated by climatic variability. We demonstrate that although sea-level changes impacted rates of reef accretion and allowed reefs to backstep inshore as new habitats were flooded, sea level was not the ultimate cause of reef demise. Instead, we conclude that climate was the primary driver of the expansion and contraction of Florida's reefs during the Holocene. Reefs grew to 26.7° N in southeast Florida during the relatively warm, stable climate at the beginning of the Holocene Thermal Maximum (HTM) ~ 10,000 years ago, but subsequent cooling and increased frequency of winter cold fronts were associated with the equatorward contraction of reef building. By ~ 7800 years ago, actively accreting reefs only extended to 26.1° N. Reefs further contracted to 25.8° N after 5800 years ago, and by 3000 years ago reef development had terminated throughout southern Florida (24.5-26.7° N). Modern warming is unlikely to simply reverse this trend, however, because the climate of the Anthropocene will be fundamentally different from the HTM. By increasing the frequency and intensity of both warm and cold extreme-weather events, contemporary climate change will instead amplify conditions inimical to reef development in marginal reef environments such as southern Florida, making them more likely to continue to deteriorate than to resume accretion in the future.

Coral reef diversity losses in China's Greater Bay Area were driven by regional stressors

Observations of coral reef losses to climate change far exceed our understanding of historical degradation before anthropogenic warming. This is a critical gap to fill as conservation efforts simultaneously work to reverse climate change while restoring coral reef diversity and function. Here, we focused on southern China's Greater Bay Area, where coral communities persist despite centuries of coral mining, fishing, dredging, development, and pollution. We compared subfossil assemblages with modern-day communities and revealed a 40% decrease in generic diversity, concomitant to a shift from competitive to stress-tolerant species dominance since the mid-Holocene. Regions with characteristically poor water quality-high chl-a, dissolved inorganic nitrogen, and turbidity-had lower contemporary diversity and the greatest community composition shift observed in the past, driven by the near extirpation of Acropora These observations highlight the urgent need to mitigate local stressors from development in concert with curbing greenhouse gas emissions.

Population fluctuations of the fungiid coral Cycloseris curvata, Galápagos Islands, Ecuador

Fungiid corals (Cnidaria: Anthozoa: Scleractinia) occur at isolated locations scattered throughout the eastern tropical Pacific. They can be reef-associated but are often found on sand and rubble substrata distant from reef coral habitat. Cycloseris curvata is known in this region from the southern Gulf of California, through Mexico, Costa Rica, and Panamá, and with the southern-most populations occurring in the Galápagos Islands, Ecuador. During Archipelago-wide surveys (1988-2019), living individuals of Cycloseris curvata were observed at only two locations, Devil's Crown (near Floreana Island) and Xarifa Island (near Española Island). The Devil's Crown population was observed from 1988 to 2017, whereas living individuals in the Xarifa population were observed from 2005 to 2009. In 2012 a death assemblage (dead skeletons) was discovered at Darwin Island, at the northern-most extent of the Archipelago. At Devil's Crown, visual surveys were performed annually or biennially from 1990 to 2012, with two more surveys in 2017 and 2019. The living Cycloseris curvata population consisted of 15 individuals in 1990 that gradually increased to 78 individuals by 1995. Over 200 individuals were observed in 1996, and high numbers persisted through 1998 with 335 individuals. Live tissue surface area per polyp ranged from 0.5 to 95.0cm². The population decreased to 112 individuals in 1999 (following warming associated with the 1997-98 El Niño), with further declines to 20 in 2009 (following cooling associated with the 2007 La Niña) and a rebound to 91 in 2012. After a 5y break in data collection, only one individual (28.3cm²) was observed in 2017, and in 2019 none were observed. Although undetected living Cycloseris curvata populations may exist, and renewed recruitment provides some hope for population reestablishment, it is possible that this fungiid coral species is now extirpated from the Galápagos Archipelago.

Coral reef resilience to thermal stress in the Eastern Tropical Pacific

Coral reefs worldwide are threatened by thermal stress caused by climate change. Especially devastating periods of coral loss frequently occur during El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events originating in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP). El Niño-induced thermal stress is considered the primary threat to ETP coral reefs. An increase in the frequency and intensity of ENSO events predicted in the coming decades threatens a pan-tropical collapse of coral reefs. During the 1982-1983 El Niño, most reefs in the Galapagos Islands collapsed, and many more in the region were decimated by massive coral bleaching and mortality. However, after repeated thermal stress disturbances, such as those caused by the 1997-1998 El Niño, ETP corals reefs have demonstrated regional persistence and resiliency. Using a 44 year dataset (1970-2014) of live coral cover from the ETP, we assess whether ETP reefs exhibit the same decline as seen globally for other reefs. Also, we compare the ETP live coral cover rate of change with data from the maximum Degree Heating Weeks experienced by these reefs to assess the role of thermal stress on coral reef survival. We find that during the period 1970-2014, ETP coral cover exhibited temporary reductions following major ENSO events, but no overall decline. Further, we find that ETP reef recovery patterns allow coral to persist under these El Niño-stressed conditions, often recovering from these events in 10-15 years. Accumulative heat stress explains 31% of the overall annual rate of change of living coral cover in the ETP. This suggests that ETP coral reefs have adapted to thermal extremes to date, and may have the ability to adapt to near-term future climate-change thermal anomalies. These findings for ETP reef resilience may provide general insights for the future of coral reef survival and recovery elsewhere under intensifying El Niño scenarios.

Upwelling buffers climate change impacts on coral reefs of the eastern tropical Pacific

Corals of the eastern tropical Pacific live in a marginal and oceanographically dynamic environment. Along the Pacific coast of Panamá, stronger seasonal upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá in the east transitions to weaker upwelling in the Gulf of Chiriquí in the west, resulting in complex regional oceanographic conditions that drive differential coral-reef growth. Over millennial timescales, reefs in the Gulf of Chiriquí recovered more quickly from climatic disturbances compared with reefs in the Gulf of Panamá. In recent decades, corals in the Gulf of Chiriquí have also had higher growth rates than in the Gulf of Panamá. As the ocean continues to warm, however, conditions could shift to favor the growth of corals in the Gulf of Panamá, where upwelling may confer protection from high-temperature anomalies. Here we describe the recent spatial and temporal variability in surface oceanography of nearshore environments in Pacific Panamá and compare those conditions with the dynamics of contemporary coral-reef communities during and after the 2016 coral-bleaching event. Although both gulfs have warmed significantly over the last 150 yr, the annual thermal maximum in the Gulf of Chiriquí is increasing faster, and ocean temperatures there are becoming more variable than in the recent past. In contrast to historical trends, we found that coral cover, coral survival, and coral growth rates were all significantly higher in the Gulf of Panamá. Corals bleached extensively in the Gulf of Chiriquí following the 2015-2016 El Niño event, whereas upwelling in the Gulf of Panamá moderated the high temperatures caused by El Niño, allowing the corals largely to escape thermal stress. As the climate continues to warm, upwelling zones may offer a temporary and localized refuge from the thermal impacts of climate change, while reef growth in the rest of the eastern tropical Pacific continues to decline.

A 3,000-year lag between the geological and ecological shutdown of Florida's coral reefs

The global-scale degradation of coral reefs has reached a critical threshold wherein further declines threaten both ecological functionality and the persistence of reef structure. Geological records can provide valuable insights into the long-term controls on reef development that may be key to solving the modern coral-reef crisis. Our analyses of new and existing coral-reef cores from throughout the Florida Keys reef tract (FKRT) revealed significant spatial and temporal variability in reef development during the Holocene. Whereas maximum Holocene reef thickness in the Dry Tortugas was comparable to elsewhere in the western Atlantic, most of Florida's reefs had relatively thin accumulations of Holocene reef framework. During periods of active reef development, average reef accretion rates were similar throughout the FKRT at ~3 m/ky. The spatial variability in reef thickness was instead driven by differences in the duration of reef development. Reef accretion declined significantly from ~6,000 years ago to present, and by ~3,000 years ago, the majority of the FKRT was geologically senescent. Although sea level influenced the development of Florida's reefs, it was not the ultimate driver of reef demise. Instead, we demonstrate that the timing of reef senescence was modulated by subregional hydrographic variability, and hypothesize that climatic cooling was the ultimate cause of reef shutdown. The senescence of the FKRT left the ecosystem balanced at a delicate tipping point at which a veneer of living coral was the only barrier to reef erosion. Modern climate change and other anthropogenic disturbances have now pushed many reefs past that critical threshold and into a novel ecosystem state, in which reef structures built over millennia could soon be lost. The dominant role of climate in the development of the FKRT over timescales of decades to millennia highlights the potential vulnerability of both geological and ecological reef processes to anthropogenic climate change.

Rapid recovery of a coral dominated Eastern Tropical Pacific reef after experimentally produced anthropogenic disturbance

Local anthropogenic stressors such as overfishing, nutrient enrichment and increased sediment loading have been shown to push coral reefs toward greater dominance by algae. In a few cases this shift has been temporary, with the ability to recover to a healthy coral-dominated community after disturbance, suggesting some systems have considerable resilience. However, an understanding of the circumstances under which reefs may recover is only beginning to emerge. We monitored recovery of a coral-dominated reef in the Eastern Tropical Pacific (ETP) after cessation of a ∼6 month multiple stressor experiment (with herbivore exclosure, nutrient addition, and sediment addition). We observed substantial recovery from small-scale disturbances, though there were differences in both the extent and temporal dynamics of recovery between treatments. Plots that had been caged showed the largest recovery in absolute terms and recovery was quite rapid, while nutrient and sediment addition plots were slower to recover. We also observed different recovery patterns depending on the type of algae that replaced coral during or after disturbances. Macroalgae that established during manipulation were almost completely removed within 2 weeks, revealing that a significant proportion had covered still-living coral. Turf algae persisted longer, but were almost completely replaced by regenerating coral within 18 months. Very little crustose coralline algae were apparent during manipulations, but coverage did increase during recovery. This rapid recovery of corals after simulated anthropogenic disturbance to ETP reefs underscores the value of management of local stressors for short-term recovery and perhaps as a buffer for longer-term global stressors.

The little shrimp that could: phylogeography of the circumtropical Stenopus hispidus (Crustacea: Decapoda), reveals divergent Atlantic and Pacific lineages

The banded coral shrimp, Stenopus hispidus (Crustacea: Decapoda: Stenopodidea) is a popular marine ornamental species with a circumtropical distribution. The planktonic larval stage lasts ∼120-253 days, indicating considerable dispersal potential, but few studies have investigated genetic connectivity on a global scale in marine invertebrates. To resolve patterns of divergence and phylogeography of S. hispidus, we surveyed 525 bp of mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) from 198 individuals sampled at 10 locations across ∼27,000 km of the species range. Phylogenetic analyses reveal that S. hispidus has a Western Atlantic lineage and a widely distributed Indo-Pacific lineage, separated by sequence divergence of 2.1%. Genetic diversity is much higher in the Western Atlantic (h = 0.929; π = 0.004) relative to the Indo-Pacific (h = 0.105; π < 0.001), and coalescent analyses indicate that the Indo-Pacific population expanded more recently (95% HPD (highest posterior density) = 60,000-400,000 yr) than the Western Atlantic population (95% HPD = 300,000-760,000 yr). Divergence of the Western Atlantic and Pacific lineages is estimated at 710,000-1.8 million years ago, which does not readily align with commonly implicated colonization events between the ocean basins. The estimated age of populations contradicts the prevailing dispersal route for tropical marine biodiversity (Indo-Pacific to Atlantic) with the oldest and most diverse population in the Atlantic, and a recent population expansion with a single common haplotype shared throughout the vast Indian and Pacific oceans. In contrast to the circumtropical fishes, this diminutive reef shrimp challenges our understanding of conventional dispersal capabilities of marine species.

Coral reef degradation is not correlated with local human population density

The global decline of reef-building corals is understood to be due to a combination of local and global stressors. However, many reef scientists assume that local factors predominate and that isolated reefs, far from human activities, are generally healthier and more resilient. Here we show that coral reef degradation is not correlated with human population density. This suggests that local factors such as fishing and pollution are having minimal effects or that their impacts are masked by global drivers such as ocean warming. Our results also suggest that the effects of local and global stressors are antagonistic, rather than synergistic as widely assumed. These findings indicate that local management alone cannot restore coral populations or increase the resilience of reefs to large-scale impacts. They also highlight the truly global reach of anthropogenic warming and the immediate need for drastic and sustained cuts in carbon emissions.

Global inequities between polluters and the polluted: climate change impacts on coral reefs

For many ecosystem services, it remains uncertain whether the impacts of climate change will be mostly negative or positive and how these changes will be geographically distributed. These unknowns hamper the identification of regional winners and losers, which can influence debate over climate policy. Here, we use coral reefs to explore the spatial variability of climate stress by modelling the ecological impacts of rising sea temperatures and ocean acidification, two important coral stressors associated with increasing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. We then combine these results with national per capita emissions to quantify inequities arising from the distribution of cause (CO2 emissions) and effect (stress upon reefs) among coral reef countries. We find pollution and coral stress are spatially decoupled, creating substantial inequity of impacts as a function of emissions. We then consider the implications of such inequity for international climate policy. Targets for GHG reductions are likely to be tied to a country's emissions. Yet within a given level of GHG emissions, our analysis reveals that some countries experience relatively high levels of impact and will likely experience greater financial cost in terms of lost ecosystem productivity and more extensive adaptation measures. We suggest countries so disadvantaged be given access to international adaptation funds proportionate with impacts to their ecosystem. We raise the idea that funds could be more equitably allocated by formally including a metric of equity within a vulnerability framework.

Forecasted coral reef decline in marine biodiversity hotspots under climate change

Coral bleaching events threaten coral reef habitats globally and cause severe declines of local biodiversity and productivity. Related to high sea surface temperatures (SST), bleaching events are expected to increase as a consequence of future global warming. However, response to climate change is still uncertain as future low-latitude climatic conditions have no present-day analogue. Sea surface temperatures during the Eocene epoch were warmer than forecasted changes for the coming century, and distributions of corals during the Eocene may help to inform models forecasting the future of coral reefs. We coupled contemporary and Eocene coral occurrences with information on their respective climatic conditions to model the thermal niche of coral reefs and its potential response to projected climate change. We found that under the RCP8.5 climate change scenario, the global suitability for coral reefs may increase up to 16% by 2100, mostly due to improved suitability of higher latitudes. In contrast, in its current range, coral reef suitability may decrease up to 46% by 2100. Reduction in thermal suitability will be most severe in biodiversity hotspots, especially in the Indo-Australian Archipelago. Our results suggest that many contemporary hotspots for coral reefs, including those that have been refugia in the past, spatially mismatch with future suitable areas for coral reefs posing challenges to conservation actions under climate change.

Biology in the Anthropocene: Challenges and insights from young fossil records

With overwhelming evidence of change in habitats, biologists today must assume that few, if any, study areas are natural and that biological variability is superimposed on trends rather than stationary means. Paleobiological data from the youngest sedimentary record, including death assemblages actively accumulating on modern land surfaces and seabeds, provide unique information on the status of present-day species, communities, and biomes over the last few decades to millennia and on their responses to natural and anthropogenic environmental change. Key advances have established the accuracy and resolving power of paleobiological information derived from naturally preserved remains and of proxy evidence for environmental conditions and sample age so that fossil data can both implicate and exonerate human stressors as the drivers of biotic change and permit the effects of multiple stressors to be disentangled. Legacy effects from Industrial and even pre-Industrial anthropogenic extirpations, introductions, (de)nutrification, and habitat conversion commonly emerge as the primary factors underlying the present-day status of populations and communities; within the last 2 million years, climate change has rarely been sufficient to drive major extinction pulses absent other human pressures, which are now manifold. Young fossil records also provide rigorous access to the baseline composition and dynamics of modern-day biota under pre-Industrial conditions, where insights include the millennial-scale persistence of community structures, the dominant role of physical environmental conditions rather than biotic interactions in determining community composition and disassembly, and the existence of naturally alternating states.

Coralline algae (Rhodophyta) in a changing world: integrating ecological, physiological, and geochemical responses to global change

Coralline algae are globally distributed benthic primary producers that secrete calcium carbonate skeletons. In the context of ocean acidification, they have received much recent attention due to the potential vulnerability of their high-Mg calcite skeletons and their many important ecological roles. Herein, we summarize what is known about coralline algal ecology and physiology, providing context to understand their responses to global climate change. We review the impacts of these changes, including ocean acidification, rising temperatures, and pollution, on coralline algal growth and calcification. We also assess the ongoing use of coralline algae as marine climate proxies via calibration of skeletal morphology and geochemistry to environmental conditions. Finally, we indicate critical gaps in our understanding of coralline algal calcification and physiology and highlight key areas for future research. These include analytical areas that recently have become more accessible, such as resolving phylogenetic relationships at all taxonomic ranks, elucidating the genes regulating algal photosynthesis and calcification, and calibrating skeletal geochemical metrics, as well as research directions that are broadly applicable to global change ecology, such as the importance of community-scale and long-term experiments in stress response.

A depth refugium from catastrophic coral bleaching prevents regional extinction

Species intolerant of changing climate might avoid extinction within refugia buffered from extreme conditions. Refugia have been observed in the fossil record but are not well documented or understood on ecological time scales. Using a 37-year record from the eastern Pacific across the two most severe El Niño events on record (1982-1983 and 1997 1998) we show how an exceptionally thermally sensitive reef-building hydrocoral, Millepora intricata, twice survived catastrophic bleaching in a deeper-water refuge (> 11 m depth). During both events, M. intricata was extirpated across its range in shallow water, but showed recovery within several years, while two other hydrocorals without deep-water populations were driven to regional extinction. Evidence from the subfossil record in the same area showed shallow-water persistence of abundant M. intricata populations from 5000 years ago, through severe El Niño-Southern Oscillation cycles, suggesting a potential depth refugium on a millennial timescale. Our data confirm the deep refuge hypothesis for corals under thermal stress.

Coral reef baselines: how much macroalgae is natural?

Identifying the baseline or natural state of an ecosystem is a critical step in effective conservation and restoration. Like most marine ecosystems, coral reefs are being degraded by human activities: corals and fish have declined in abundance and seaweeds, or macroalgae, have become more prevalent. The challenge for resource managers is to reverse these trends, but by how much? Based on surveys of Caribbean reefs in the 1970s, some reef scientists believe that the average cover of seaweed was very low in the natural state: perhaps less than 3%. On the other hand, evidence from remote Pacific reefs, ecological theory, and impacts of over-harvesting in other systems all suggest that, historically, macroalgal biomass may have been higher than assumed. Uncertainties about the natural state of coral reefs illustrate the difficulty of determining the baseline condition of even well studied systems.

Coral reefs: building a better crystal ball

Reef corals are ancient taxa, yet they are highly sensitive to environmental change. Recent research indicates that unless global CO2 emissions are dramatically reduced, we are just decades away from the collapse of coral reef ecosystems.

Unrecognized coral species diversity masks differences in functional ecology

Porites corals are foundation species on Pacific reefs but a confused taxonomy hinders understanding of their ecosystem function and responses to climate change. Here, we show that what has been considered a single species in the eastern tropical Pacific, Porites lobata, includes a morphologically similar yet ecologically distinct species, Porites evermanni. While P. lobata reproduces mainly sexually, P. evermanni dominates in areas where triggerfish prey on bioeroding mussels living within the coral skeleton, thereby generating asexual coral fragments. These fragments proliferate in marginal habitat not colonized by P. lobata. The two Porites species also show a differential bleaching response despite hosting the same dominant symbiont subclade. Thus, hidden diversity within these reef-builders has until now obscured differences in trophic interactions, reproductive dynamics and bleaching susceptibility, indicative of differential responses when confronted with future climate change.

Future habitat suitability for coral reef ecosystems under global warming and ocean acidification

Rising atmospheric CO2 concentrations are placing spatially divergent stresses on the world's tropical coral reefs through increasing ocean surface temperatures and ocean acidification. We show how these two stressors combine to alter the global habitat suitability for shallow coral reef ecosystems, using statistical Bioclimatic Envelope Models rather than basing projections on any a priori assumptions of physiological tolerances or fixed thresholds. We apply two different modeling approaches (Maximum Entropy and Boosted Regression Trees) with two levels of complexity (one a simplified and reduced environmental variable version of the other). Our models project a marked temperature-driven decline in habitat suitability for many of the most significant and bio-diverse tropical coral regions, particularly in the central Indo-Pacific. This is accompanied by a temperature-driven poleward range expansion of favorable conditions accelerating up to 40-70 km per decade by 2070. We find that ocean acidification is less influential for determining future habitat suitability than warming, and its deleterious effects are centered evenly in both hemispheres between 5° and 20° latitude. Contrary to expectations, the combined impact of ocean surface temperature rise and acidification leads to little, if any, degradation in future habitat suitability across much of the Atlantic and areas currently considered 'marginal' for tropical corals, such as the eastern Equatorial Pacific. These results are consistent with fossil evidence of range expansions during past warm periods. In addition, the simplified models are particularly sensitive to short-term temperature variations and their projections correlate well with reported locations of bleaching events. Our approach offers new insights into the relative impact of two global environmental pressures associated with rising atmospheric CO2 on potential future habitats, but greater understanding of past and current controls on coral reef ecosystems is essential to their conservation and management under a changing climate.

Caribbean-wide decline in carbonate production threatens coral reef growth

Global-scale deteriorations in coral reef health have caused major shifts in species composition. One projected consequence is a lowering of reef carbonate production rates, potentially impairing reef growth, compromising ecosystem functionality and ultimately leading to net reef erosion. Here, using measures of gross and net carbonate production and erosion from 19 Caribbean reefs, we show that contemporary carbonate production rates are now substantially below historical (mid- to late-Holocene) values. On average, current production rates are reduced by at least 50%, and 37% of surveyed sites were net erosional. Calculated accretion rates (mm year⁻¹) for shallow fore-reef habitats are also close to an order of magnitude lower than Holocene averages. A live coral cover threshold of ~10% appears critical to maintaining positive production states. Below this ecological threshold carbonate budgets typically become net negative and threaten reef accretion. Collectively, these data suggest that recent ecological declines are now suppressing Caribbean reef growth potential.

Coral reef health is declining globally and is projected to lead to net loss of reef structure. This study shows that ecological change across the Caribbean has reduced reef growth rates to levels lower than those measured over the last ~8,000 years, threatening the ability of reefs to keep pace with future sea-level rise.

A sea water barrier to coral gene flow

Land is not the only barrier to dispersal encountered by marine organisms. For sedentary shallow water species, there is an additional, marine barrier, 5000 km of uninterrupted deep-water stretch between the central and the eastern Pacific. This expanse of water, known as the ‘Eastern Pacific Barrier’, has been separating faunas of the two oceanic regions since the beginning of the Cenozoic. Species with larvae that cannot stay in the plankton for the time it takes to cross between the two sides have been evolving independently. That the eastern Pacific does not share species with the rest of the Pacific was obvious to naturalists two centuries ago (Darwin 1860). Yet, this rule has exceptions. A small minority of species are known to straddle the Eastern Pacific Barrier. One such exception is the scleractinian coral Porites lobata (Fig. 1). This species is spread widely throughout the Indo-Pacific, where it is one of the major reef-builders, but it is also encountered in the eastern Pacific. Are eastern and central Pacific populations of this coral connected by gene flow? In this issue of Molecular Ecology, Baums et al. (2012) use microsatellite data to answer this question. They show that P. lobata populations in the eastern Pacific are cut off from genetic influx from the rest of the Pacific. Populations within each of the two oceanic regions are genetically connected (though those in the Hawaiian islands are also isolated). Significantly, the population in the Clipperton Atoll, the westernmost island in the eastern Pacific, genetically groups with populations from the central Pacific, suggesting that crossing the Eastern Pacific Barrier by P. lobata propagules does occasionally occur.