Dynamical role of predators in population cycles of a forest insect: An experimental test

Biodiversity loss impacts top-down regulation of insect herbivores across ecosystem boundaries

Biodiversity loss, as driven by anthropogenic global change, imperils biosphere intactness and integrity. Ecosystem services such as top-down regulation (or biological control; BC) are susceptible to loss of extinction-prone taxa at upper trophic levels and secondary 'support' species e.g., herbivores. Here, drawing upon curated open-access interaction data, we structurally analyze trophic networks centered on the fall armyworm Spodoptera frugiperda (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae) and assess their robustness to species loss. Tri-partite networks link 80 BC organisms (invertebrate or microbial), 512 lepidopteran hosts and 1194 plants (including 147 cultivated crops) in the Neotropics. These comprise threatened herbaceous or woody plants and conservation flagships such as saturniid moths. Treating all interaction partners functionally equivalent, random herbivore loss exerts a respective 26 % or 108 % higher impact on top-down regulation in crop and non-crop settings than that of BC organisms (at 50 % loss). Equally, random loss of BC organisms affects herbivore regulation to a greater extent (13.8 % at 50 % loss) than herbivore loss mediates their preservation (11.4 %). Yet, under moderate biodiversity loss, (non-pest) herbivores prove highly susceptible to loss of BC organisms. Our topological approach spotlights how agriculturally-subsidized BC agents benefit vegetation restoration, while non-pest herbivores uphold biological control in on- and off-farm settings alike. Our work underlines how the on-farm usage of endemic biological control organisms can advance conservation, restoration, and agricultural sustainability imperatives. We discuss how integrative approaches and close interdisciplinary cooperation can spawn desirable outcomes for science, policy and practice.

Effect of migrations on synchrony in host-parasitoid system

Insect outbreaks can cause large scale defoliation of forest trees or destruction of crops, leading to ecosystem degradation and economic losses. Some outbreaks occur simultaneously across large geographic scales and some outbreaks occur periodically every few years across space. Parasitoids are a natural enemy of these defoliators and could help mitigate these pest outbreaks. A holistic understanding of the host-parasitoid interactions in a spatial context would thus enhance our ability to understand, predict and prevent these outbreaks. We use a discrete time deterministic model of the host parasitoid system with populations migrating between 2 patches to elucidate features of spatial host outbreaks. We show that whenever populations persist indefinitely, host outbreaks in both patches can occur alternatively (out of phase) at low migration between patches whereas host outbreaks always occur simultaneously (in phase) in both patches at high migration between patches. We show that our results are robust across a large range of parameters across different modelling approaches used typically to model intraspecific competition among hosts and parasitism, in the host-parasitoid literature. We give an analytical expression for the period of oscillations when the migration is low i.e., when host outbreaks in both patches are out of phase, show it is in agreement with numerical results. We end our paper by showing that we get the same results whether we include the biologically rooted formulations from May et al. (1981) or a general cellular automata model with qualitative rules.

Different Algicidal Modes of the Two Bacteria Aeromonas bestiarum HYD0802-MK36 and Pseudomonas syringae KACC10292T against Harmful Cyanobacteria Microcystis aeruginosa

Blooms of harmful cyanobacteria Microcystis aeruginosa lead to an adverse effect on freshwater ecosystems, and thus extensive studies on the control of this cyanobacteria’s blooms have been conducted. Throughout this study, we have found that the two bacteria Aeromonas bestiarum HYD0802-MK36 and Pseudomonas syringae KACC10292^T are capable of killing M. aeruginosa. Interestingly, these two bacteria showed different algicidal modes. Based on an algicidal range test using 15 algal species (target and non-target species), HYD0802-MK36 specifically attacked only target cyanobacteria M. aeruginosa, whereas the algicidal activity of KACC10292^T appeared in a relatively broad algicidal range. HYD0802-MK36, as a direct attacker, killed M. aeruginosa cells when direct cell (bacterium)-to-cell (cyanobacteria) contact happens. KACC10292^T, as an indirect attacker, released algicidal substance which is located in cytoplasm. Interestingly, algicidal activity of KACC10292^T was enhanced according to co-cultivation with the host cyanobacteria, suggesting that quantity of algicidal substance released from this bacterium might be increased via interaction with the host cyanobacteria.

Environment and Local Substrate Availability Effects on Harem Formation in a Polygynous Bark Beetle

Simple Summary

Harem polygyny is a mating system where a single male defends a group of females for the purpose of securing multiple mating. While this mating system is well-known in mammals it is uncommon in insect groups. The mating aggregations that occur in insect groups may be driven by environmental conditions or resources available for feeding and breeding. We aimed to determine how the local availability of breeding substrate affects the formation of harems in the five-spined bark beetle, Ips grandicollis. Aggregations are formed when a male bores under the bark of felled pine trees and makes a nuptial chamber. The male then releases an aggregation pheromone that attracts females for mating and other males to also exploit the resource. When the population density was higher the number of females associated with each male was greater. The population density was determined by environmental circumstances with higher density in a pine plantation that was being harvested than in a plantation that was still standing. The amount of substrate (logs per replicate pile) available to the bark beetles also influences the number of beetles attracted to a log and size of individual harems. The environment and local substrate availability did not affect how females distribute themselves around the male. Females did not actively avoid positioning themselves further from neighbouring females to avoid competition. Their arrangement within harems was equivalent to random positioning.

Abstract

Many forms of polygyny are observed across different animal groups. In some species, groups of females may remain with a single male for breeding, often referred to as “harem polygyny”. The environment and the amount of habitat available for feeding, mating and oviposition may have an effect on the formation of harems. We aimed to determine how the surrounding environment (a harvested or unharvested pine plantation) and availability of local substrate affect the harems of the bark beetle, Ips grandicollis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae). In a harvested pine plantation with large amounts of available habitat, the population density of these beetles is much higher than in unharvested plantations. We found the number of females per male to be significantly greater in the harvested plantation than the unharvested one. Additionally, the amount of substrate available in the immediate local vicinity (the number of logs in replicate piles) also influences the number of beetles attracted to a log and size of individual harems. We also examined how females were distributing themselves in their galleries around the males’ nuptial chamber, as previous work has demonstrated the potential for competition between neighbouring females and their offspring. Females do not perform clumping, suggesting some avoidance when females make their galleries, but they also do not distribute themselves evenly. Female distribution around the male’s nuptial chamber appears to be random, and not influenced by other females or external conditions.

Towards Sustainable Forest Management in Central America: Review of Southern Pine Beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann) Outbreaks, Their Causes, and Solutions

Outbreaks of the southern pine beetle (SPB) Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann in Central America have had a devastating impact on pine forests. It remains unclear to what extent these outbreaks are caused by the beetle’s ecology, climate, and historical management practices. Using research data and experience accumulated in northern latitudes to guide management of forests in Central America is associated with great uncertainty, given the many unique features of the conifer forests in this region. The main recommendation from this review is that Central American bark beetle outbreaks need to be studied locally, and the local climate, biotic elements, and silvicultural history need to be considered. The key to reducing the impacts of SPB in Central America are local research and implementation of proactive management, in order to facilitate the establishment of forests more resilient to increasing environmental and anthropogenic pressures.

Tri-trophic interactions: bridging species, communities and ecosystems

A vast body of research demonstrates that many ecological and evolutionary processes can only be understood from a tri-trophic viewpoint, that is, one that moves beyond the pairwise interactions of neighbouring trophic levels to consider the emergent features of interactions among multiple trophic levels. Despite its unifying potential, tri-trophic research has been fragmented, following two distinct paths. One has focused on the population biology and evolutionary ecology of simple food chains of interacting species. The other has focused on bottom-up and top-down controls over the distribution of biomass across trophic levels and other ecosystem-level variables. Here, we propose pathways to bridge these two long-standing perspectives. We argue that an expanded theory of tri-trophic interactions (TTIs) can unify our understanding of biological processes across scales and levels of organisation, ranging from species evolution and pairwise interactions to community structure and ecosystem function. To do so requires addressing how community structure and ecosystem function arise as emergent properties of component TTIs, and, in turn, how species traits and TTIs are shaped by the ecosystem processes and the abiotic environment in which they are embedded. We conclude that novel insights will come from applying tri-trophic theory systematically across all levels of biological organisation.

Do natural enemies explain fluctuations in low-density spruce budworm populations?

Understanding the causal pathways through which forest insect outbreaks are triggered is important for resource managers. However, detailed population dynamics studies are hard to conduct in low-density, pre-outbreak populations because the insects are difficult to sample in sufficient numbers. Using laboratory-raised larvae installed in the field across a 1,000 km east-west gradient in Québec (Canada) over an 11-yr period, we examined if parasitism and predation were likely to explain fluctuations in low-density spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana; SBW) populations. Parasitism rates by the two main larval parasitoid species, Elachertus cacoeciae and Tranosema rostrale, peaked during different years. This suggests that temporal fluctuations in overall parasitism were partly buffered by compensatory dynamics among parasitoid species. Still, spatial covariance analyses indicate that the residual interannual variation in parasitism rates was substantial and correlated over large distances (up to 700 km). On the other hand, interannual variation in predation rates was not spatially correlated. Piecewise structural equation models indicate that temporal variation in parasitism and predation does not influence temporal variation in wild SBW abundance. Spatially, however, SBWs installed in warmer locations tended to show higher parasitism rates, and these higher rates correlated with lower wild SBW population levels. Overall, the results indicate that large-scale drops in parasitism occur and could potentially contribute to SBW population increases. However, during the period covered by this study, other factors such as direct effects of weather on SBW larval development or indirect effects through host tree physiology or phenology were more likely to explain large-scale variation in wild SBW populations.

Synchrony, Weather, and Cycles in Southern Pine Beetle (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)

Spatial synchrony and cycles are common features of forest insect pests, but are often studied as separate phenomenon. Using time series of timber damage caused by Dendroctonus frontalis Zimmermann (Coleoptera: Curculionidae) (southern pine beetle) in 10 states within the southern United States, this study examines synchrony in D. frontalis abundance, the synchronizing effects of temperature extremes, and the evidence for shared cycles among state populations. Cross-correlation and cluster analyses are used to quantify synchrony across a range of geographic distances and to identify groups of states with synchronous dynamics. Similar techniques are used to quantify spatial synchrony in temperature extremes and to examine their relationship to D. frontalis fluctuations. Cross-wavelet analysis is then used to examine pairs of time series for shared cycles. These analyses suggest there is substantial synchrony among states in D. frontalis fluctuations, and there are regional groups of states with similar dynamics. Synchrony in D. frontalis fluctuations also appears related to spatial synchrony in summer and winter temperature extremes. The cross-wavelet results suggest that D. frontalis dynamics may differ among regions and are not stationary. Significant oscillations were present in some states over certain time intervals, suggesting an endogenous feedback mechanism. Management of D. frontalis outbreaks could potentially benefit from a multistate regional approach because populations are synchronous on this level. Extreme summer temperatures are likely to become the most important synchronizing agent due to climate change.

Temporal Variation in Trophic Cascades

The trophic cascade has emerged as a key paradigm in ecology. Although ecologists have made progress in understanding spatial variation in the strength of trophic cascades, temporal variation remains relatively unexplored. Our review suggests that strong trophic cascades are often transient, appearing when ecological conditions support high consumer abundance and rapidly growing, highly edible prey. Persistent top-down control is expected to decay over time in the absence of external drivers, as strong top-down control favors the emergence of better-defended resources. Temporal shifts in cascade strength—including those driven by contemporary global change—can either stabilize or destabilize ecological communities. We suggest that a more temporally explicit approach can improve our ability to explain the drivers of trophic cascades and predict the impact of changing cascade strength on community dynamics.

Survival of a specialist natural enemy experiencing resource competition with an omnivorous predator when sharing the invasive prey Tuta absoluta

Can specialist natural enemies persist in ecosystems when competing with omnivorous natural enemies for their shared prey? The consequences of omnivory have been studied theoretically, but empirical studies are still lacking. Omnivory is nevertheless common in nature and omnivorous predators coexist with specialists in many ecosystems, even when they are intraguild predators. This type of association is also common in agroecosystems in which biological control strategies are used. Our study provides an example of the outcome of such an association in the context of biological control of the invasive pest Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera) in a tomato agroecosystem. The two natural enemies involved, that is, a specialist (Stenomesius japonicus (Hymenoptera) parasitoid) and an omnivore (Macrolophus pygmaeus (Hemiptera) predator), were able to coexist for 3 months in our experimental cages in the absence of metacommunity mechanisms (i.e., emigration and recolonization), contrary to theoretical expectations. However, they negatively affected each other's population dynamics. We found that spatial resource segregation was not a mechanism that promoted their coexistence. Regarding pest control, the specialist and omnivorous natural enemies were found to exhibit complementary functional traits, leading to the best control when together. Mechanisms that may have promoted the coexistence of the two species as well as consequences with regard to the inoculative biological control program are discussed.

Do Phoretic Mites Influence the Reproductive Success of Ips grandicollis (Coleoptera: Curculionidae)?

Ips grandicollis (Eichhoff) can be an important pest of plantation trees in the Great Lakes region. Mites commonly occur in phoretic association with this beetle, but little is known about their effects on beetle population dynamics. We assessed the effects of phoretic mites on the reproductive success of I. grandicollis using complementary correlative and manipulative approaches. First, we allowed beetles to colonize Pinus resinosa (Ait) logs from sites across Wisconsin, reared them in a common environment, and related the species identities and abundances of mites with beetle production from each log. We found a positive relationship between I. grandicollis abundance and the presence of five mite species, Histiostoma spp., Dendrolaelaps quadrisetus (Berlese), Iponemus confusus (Lindquist), Trichouropoda australis Hirschmann, and Tarsonemus spp. While the abundance of individual mite species was positively correlated with beetle abundance, assessments of mite community structure did not explain beetle reproduction. Next, we introduced beetles that either had a natural complement of mites or whose mites were mechanically reduced into logs, and compared reproductive success between these beetles. We found no difference in colonization rates or beetle emergence between mite-present and mite-reduced treatments. Collectively, these results suggest a correlative, rather than causal, link between beetle reproductive success and mite incidence and abundances. These mites and beetles likely benefit from mutually suitable environments rather than exerting strong reciprocal impacts. Although mites may have some effects on I. grandicollis reproductive success, they likely play a minimal role compared to factors such as tree quality, beetle predation, and weather.

Advancing the science of microbial symbiosis to support invasive species management: a case study on Phragmites in the Great Lakes

A growing body of literature supports microbial symbiosis as a foundational principle for the competitive success of invasive plant species. Further exploration of the relationships between invasive species and their associated microbiomes, as well as the interactions with the microbiomes of native species, can lead to key new insights into invasive success and potentially new and effective control approaches. In this manuscript, we review microbial relationships with plants, outline steps necessary to develop invasive species control strategies that are based on those relationships, and use the invasive plant species Phragmites australis (common reed) as an example of how development of microbial-based control strategies can be enhanced using a collective impact approach. The proposed science agenda, developed by the Collaborative for Microbial Symbiosis and Phragmites Management, contains a foundation of sequential steps and mutually-reinforcing tasks to guide the development of microbial-based control strategies for Phragmites and other invasive species. Just as the science of plant-microbial symbiosis can be transferred for use in other invasive species, so too can the model of collective impact be applied to other avenues of research and management.

Linking climate change to population cycles of hares and lynx

The classic 10-year population cycle of snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus, Erxleben 1777) and Canada lynx (Lynx canadensis, Kerr 1792) in the boreal forests of North America has drawn much attention from both population and community ecologists worldwide; however, the ecological mechanisms driving the 10-year cyclic dynamic pattern are not fully revealed yet. In this study, by the use of historic fur harvest data, we constructed a series of generalized additive models to study the effects of density dependence, predation, and climate (both global climate indices of North Atlantic Oscillation index (NAO), Southern Oscillation index (SOI) and northern hemispheric temperature (NHT) and local weather data including temperature, rainfall, and snow). We identified several key pathways from global and local climate to lynx with various time lags: rainfall shows a negative, and snow shows a positive effect on lynx; NHT and NAO negatively affect lynx through their positive effect on rainfall and negative effect on snow; SOI positively affects lynx through its negative effect on rainfall. Direct or delayed density dependency effects, the prey effect of hare on lynx and a 2-year delayed negative effect of lynx on hare (defined as asymmetric predation) were found. The simulated population dynamics is well fitted to the observed long-term fluctuations of hare and lynx populations. Through simulation, we find density dependency and asymmetric predation, only producing damped oscillation, are necessary but not sufficient factors in causing the observed 10-year cycles; while extrinsic climate factors are important in producing and modifying the sustained cycles. Two recent population declines of lynx (1940-1955 and after 1980) were likely caused by ongoing climate warming indirectly. Our results provide an alternative explanation to the mechanism of the 10-year cycles, and there is a need for further investigation on links between disappearance of population cycles and global warming in hare-lynx system.

Ant exclusion in citrus over an 8-year period reveals a pervasive yet changing effect of ants on a Mediterranean spider assemblage

Ants and spiders are ubiquitous generalist predators that exert top-down control on herbivore populations. Research shows that intraguild interactions between ants and spiders can negatively affect spider populations, but there is a lack of long-term research documenting the strength of such interactions and the potentially different effects of ants on the diverse array of species in a spider assemblage. Similarly, the suitability of family-level surrogates for finding patterns revealed by species-level data (taxonomic sufficiency) has almost never been tested in spider assemblages. We present a long-term study in which we tested the impact of ants on the spider assemblage of a Mediterranean citrus grove by performing sequential 1-year experimental exclusions on tree canopies for 8 years. We found that ants had a widespread influence on the spider assemblage, although the effect was only evident in the last 5 years of the study. During those years, ants negatively affected many spiders, and effects were especially strong for sedentary spiders. Analyses at the family level also detected assemblage differences between treatments, but they concealed the different responses to ant exclusion shown by some related spider species. Our findings show that the effects of experimental manipulations in ecology can vary greatly over time and highlight the need for long-term studies to document species interactions.

Temperature-driven range expansion of an irruptive insect heightened by weakly coevolved plant defenses

Warming climate has increased access of native bark beetles to high-elevation pines that historically received only intermittent exposure to these tree-killing herbivores. Here we show that a dominant, relatively naïve, high-elevation species, whitebark pine, has inferior defenses against mountain pine beetle compared with its historical lower-elevation host, lodgepole pine. Lodgepole pines respond by exuding more resin and accumulating higher concentrations of toxic monoterpenes than whitebark pine, where they co-occur. Furthermore, the chemical composition of whitebark pine appears less able to inhibit the pheromonal communication beetles use to jointly overcome tree defenses. Despite whitebark pine's inferior defenses, beetles were more likely to attack their historical host in mixed stands. This finding suggests there has been insufficient sustained contact for beetles to alter their complex behavioral mechanisms driving host preference. In no-choice assays, however, beetles readily entered and tunneled in both hosts equally, and in stands containing less lodgepole pine, attacks on whitebark pines increased. High-elevation trees in pure stands may thus be particularly vulnerable to temperature-driven range expansions. Predators and competitors were more attracted to volatiles from herbivores attacking their historical host, further increasing risk in less coevolved systems. Our results suggest cold temperatures provided a sufficient barrier against herbivores for high-elevation trees to allocate resources to other physiological processes besides defense. Changing climate may reduce the viability of that evolutionary strategy, and the life histories of high-elevation trees seem unlikely to foster rapid counter adaptation. Consequences extend from reduced food supplies for endangered grizzly bears to altered landscape and hydrological processes.

Molecular evidence of facultative intraguild predation by Monochamus titillator larvae (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) on members of the southern pine beetle guild

The southern pine bark beetle guild (SPBG) is arguably the most destructive group of forest insects in the southeastern USA. This guild contains five species of bark beetles (Coleoptera: Curculionidae: Scolytinae): Dendroctonus frontalis, Dendroctonus terebrans, Ips avulsus, Ips calligraphus, and Ips grandicollis. A diverse community of illicit receivers is attracted to pheromones emitted by the SPBG, including the woodborers Monochamus carolinensis and Monochamus titillator (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae). These woodborers have been traditionally classified as resource competitors; however, laboratory assays suggest that larval M. carolinensis may be facultative intraguild predators of SPBG larvae. This study used polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based molecular gut content analyses to characterize subcortical interactions between M. titillator and members of the SPBG. The half-lives of SPBG DNA were estimated in the laboratory prior to examining these interactions in the field. A total of 271 field-collected M. titillator larvae were analyzed and 26 (9.6 %) tested positive for DNA of members of the SPBG. Of these larvae, 25 (96.2 %) tested positive for I. grandicollis and one (3.8 %) for I. calligraphus. Failure to detect D. terebrans and D. frontalis was likely due to their absence in the field. I. avulsus was present, but primers developed using adult tissues failed to amplify larval tissue. Results from this study support the hypothesis that larval Monochamus spp. are facultative intraguild predators of bark beetle larvae. Additionally, this study demonstrates the capabilities of PCR in elucidating the interactions of cryptic forest insects and provides a tool to better understand mechanisms driving southern pine beetle guild population fluctuations.

Experimental test of parasitism hypothesis for population cycles of a forest lepidopteran

Population cycles of herbivores are thought to be driven by trophic interaction mechanisms, either between food plant and herbivore or between the herbivorous prey and its natural enemies. Observational data have indicated that hymenopteran parasitoids cause delayed density-dependent mortality in cyclic autumnal moth (Epirrita autumnata) populations. We experimentally tested the parasitism hypothesis of moth population cycles by establishing a four-year parasitoid-exclusion experiment, with parasitoid-proof exclosures, parasitoid-permeable exclosures, and control plots. The exclusion of parasitoids led to high autumnal moth abundances, while the declining abundance in both the parasitoid-permeable exclosures and the control plots paralleled the naturally declining density in the study area and could be explained by high rates of parasitism. Our results provide firm experimental support for the hypothesis that hymenopteran parasitoids have a causal relationship with the delayed density-dependent component required in the generation of autumnal moth population cycles.

Predicting the timing and magnitude of tropical mosquito population peaks for maximizing control efficiency

The transmission of mosquito-borne diseases is strongly linked to the abundance of the host vector. Identifying the environmental and biological precursors which herald the onset of peaks in mosquito abundance would give health and land-use managers the capacity to predict the timing and distribution of the most efficient and cost-effective mosquito control. We analysed a 15-year time series of monthly abundance of Aedes vigilax, a tropical mosquito species from northern Australia, to determine periodicity and drivers of population peaks (high-density outbreaks). Two sets of density-dependent models were used to examine the correlation between mosquito abundance peaks and the environmental drivers of peaks or troughs (low-density periods). The seasonal peaks of reproduction (r) and abundance () occur at the beginning of September and early November, respectively. The combination of low mosquito abundance and a low frequency of a high tide exceeding 7 m in the previous low-abundance (trough) period were the most parsimonious predictors of a peak's magnitude, with this model explaining over 50% of the deviance in . Model weights, estimated using AIC_c, were also relatively high for those including monthly maximum tide height, monthly accumulated tide height or total rainfall per month in the trough, with high values in the trough correlating negatively with the onset of a high-abundance peak. These findings illustrate that basic environmental monitoring data can be coupled with relatively simple density feedback models to predict the timing and magnitude of mosquito abundance peaks. Decision-makers can use these methods to determine optimal levels of control (i.e., least-cost measures yielding the largest decline in mosquito abundance) and so reduce the risk of disease outbreaks in human populations.

Mosquitoes carry several diseases that are potentially fatal to people. The risk of disease transmission is high when mosquitoes are abundant in an area, and it is therefore the job of health professionals to control or prevent mosquito outbreaks in certain areas, especially those close to human habitation. Biologists that study mosquito populations have the ability to predict peaks in mosquito population abundance by relating measures of these with environmental variables, such as tidal events and rainfall. Here we analysed data of mosquito (Aedes vigilax) populations from northern Australia over 15 years. We compared the highs and lows in mosquito numbers to possible drivers of these, such as tides. We found that low tide events prior to the mosquito peaks were followed by a boom in mosquito numbers. We also found the highest population growth rate is in September, which is two months earlier than the peak of mosquito abundance. Thus, following low tide events in the dry season, targeted control (such as spraying in earlier September) of mosquito breeding areas may allow for more effective control of mosquitoes close to human settlement, and therefore reduce the likelihood of disease outbreaks.

Predicting population survival under future climate change: density dependence, drought and extraction in an insular bighorn sheep

1. Our understanding of the interplay between density dependence, climatic perturbations, and conservation practices on the dynamics of small populations is still limited. This can result in uninformed strategies that put endangered populations at risk. Moreover, the data available for a large number of populations in such circumstances are sparse and mined with missing data. Under the current climate change scenarios, it is essential to develop appropriate inferential methods that can make use of such data sets. 2. We studied a population of desert bighorn sheep introduced to Tiburon Island, Mexico in 1975 and subjected to irregular extractions for the last 10 years. The unique attributes of this population are absence of predation and disease, thereby permitting us to explore the combined effect of density dependence, environmental variability and extraction in a 'controlled setting.' Using a combination of nonlinear discrete models with long-term field data, we constructed three basic Bayesian state space models with increasing density dependence (DD), and the same three models with the addition of summer drought effects. 3. We subsequently used Monte Carlo simulations to evaluate the combined effect of drought, DD, and increasing extractions on the probability of population survival under two climate change scenarios (based on the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change predictions): (i) increase in drought variability; and (ii) increase in mean drought severity. 4. The population grew from 16 individuals introduced in 1975 to close to 700 by 1993. Our results show that the population's growth was dominated by DD, with drought having a secondary but still relevant effect on its dynamics. 5. Our predictions suggest that under climate change scenario (i), extraction dominates the fate of the population, while for scenario (ii), an increase in mean drought affects the population's probability of survival in an equivalent magnitude as extractions. Thus, for the long-term survival of the population, our results stress that a more variable environment is less threatening than one in which the mean conditions become harsher. Current climate change scenarios and their underlying uncertainty make studies such as this one crucial for understanding the dynamics of ungulate populations and their conservation.

Periodic travelling waves in cyclic populations: field studies and reaction-diffusion models

Periodic travelling waves have been reported in a number of recent spatio-temporal field studies of populations undergoing multi-year cycles. Mathematical modelling has a major role to play in understanding these results and informing future empirical studies. We review the relevant field data and summarize the statistical methods used to detect periodic waves. We then discuss the mathematical theory of periodic travelling waves in oscillatory reaction-diffusion equations. We describe the notion of a wave family, and various ecologically relevant scenarios in which periodic travelling waves occur. We also discuss wave stability, including recent computational developments. Although we focus on oscillatory reaction-diffusion equations, a brief discussion of other types of model in which periodic travelling waves have been demonstrated is also included. We end by proposing 10 research challenges in this area, five mathematical and five empirical.

Can chemical communication be cryptic? Adaptations by herbivores to natural enemies exploiting prey semiochemistry

Predators and parasites commonly use chemical cues associated with herbivore feeding and reproduction to locate prey. However, we currently know little about mechanisms by which herbivores may avoid such natural enemies. Pheromones are crucial to many aspects of herbivore life history, so radical alterations of these compounds could be disadvantageous despite their exploitation by predators. Instead, minor modifications in pheromone chemistry may facilitate partial escape while maintaining intraspecific functionality. We tested this hypothesis using Ips pini, an endophytic beetle that develops in the phloem tissue of pine trees. Its predominant predators in the Great Lakes region of North America are Thanasimus dubius and Platysoma cylindrica, both of which are highly attracted to I. pini's pheromones. However, there are significant disparities between prey and predator behaviors that relate to nuances of pheromone chemistry. Thanasimus dubius is most attracted to the (+) stereoisomer of ipsdienol, and P. cylindrica is most attracted to the (-) form; Ips pini prefers racemic mixtures intermediate between each predator's preferences. Further, a component that is inactive by itself, lanierone, greatly synergizes the attraction of I. pini to ipsdienol, but has a weak or no effect on its predators. A temporal component adds to this behavioral disparity: lanierone is most important in the communication of I. pini during periods when its predators are most abundant. The difficulties involved in tracking prey are further compounded by spatial and temporal variation in prey signaling on a local scale. For example, the preferences of I. pini vary significantly among sites only 50 km apart. This chemical crypsis is analogous to morphological forms of camouflage, such as color and mimicry, that are widely recognized as evasive adaptations against visually searching predators. Presumably these relationships are dynamic, with predators and prey shifting responses in microevolutionary time. However, several factors may delay predator counter adaptations. The most important appears to be the availability of alternate prey, specifically I. grandicollis, whose pheromone ipsenol is highly attractive to the above predators but not cross-attractive with I. pini. Consistent with this view, the specialist parasitoid, Tomicobia tibialis, has behavioral preferences for pheromone components that closely correspond with those of I. pini. These results are discussed in terms of population dynamics and coevolutionary theory.

Predicting [corrected] extinction risk in spite of predator-prey oscillations

Most population viability analyses (PVA) assume that the effects of species interactions are subsumed by population-level parameters. We examine how robust five commonly used PVA models are to violations of this assumption. We develop a stochastic, stage-structured predator-prey model and simulate prey population vital rates and abundance. We then use simulated data to parameterize and estimate risk for three demographic models (static projection matrix, stochastic projection matrix, stochastic vital rate matrix) and two time series models (diffusion approximation [DA], corrupted diffusion approximation [CDA]). Model bias is measured as the absolute deviation between estimated and observed quasi-extinction risk. Our results highlight three generalities about the application of single-species models to multi-species conservation problems. First, our collective model results suggest that most single-species PVA models overestimate extinction risk when species interactions cause periodic variation in abundance. Second, the DA model produces the most (conservatively) biased risk forecasts. Finally, the CDA model is the most robust PVA to population cycles caused by species interactions. CDA models produce virtually unbiased and relatively precise risk estimates even when populations cycle strongly. High performance of simple time series models like the CDA owes to their ability to effectively partition stochastic and deterministic sources of variation in population abundance.

Synchrony's double edge: transient dynamics and the Allee effect in stage structured populations

In populations subject to positive density dependence, individuals can increase their fitness by synchronizing the timing of key life history events. However, phenological synchrony represents a perturbation from a population's stable stage structure and the ensuing transient dynamics create troughs of low abundance that can promote extinction. Using an ecophysiological model of a mass-attacking pest insect, we show that the effect of synchrony on local population persistence depends on population size and adult lifespan. Results are consistent with a strong empirical pattern of increased extinction risk with decreasing initial population size. Mortality factors such as predation on adults can also affect transient dynamics. Throughout the species range, the seasonal niche for persistence increases with the asynchrony of oviposition. Exposure to the Allee effect after establishment may be most likely at northern range limits, where cold winters tend to synchronize spring colonization, suggesting a role for transient dynamics in the determination of species distributions.

Impact of minimum winter temperatures on the population dynamics of Dendroctonus frontalis

Predicting population dynamics is a fundamental problem in applied ecology. Temperature is a potential driver of short-term population dynamics, and temperature data are widely available, but we generally lack validated models to predict dynamics based upon temperatures. A generalized approach involves estimating the temperatures experienced by a population, characterizing the demographic consequences of physiological responses to temperature, and testing for predicted effects on abundance. We employed this approach to test whether minimum winter temperatures are a meaningful driver of pestilence from Dendroctonus frontalis (the southern pine beetle) across the southeastern United States. A distance-weighted interpolation model provided good, spatially explicit, predictions of minimum winter air temperatures (a putative driver of beetle survival). A Newtonian heat transfer model with empirical cooling constants indicated that beetles within host trees are buffered from the lowest air temperatures by approximately 1-4 degrees C (depending on tree diameter and duration of cold bout). The life stage structure of beetles in the most northerly outbreak in recent times (New Jersey) were dominated by prepupae, which were more cold tolerant (by >3 degrees C) than other life stages. Analyses of beetle abundance data from 1987 to 2005 showed that minimum winter air temperature only explained 1.5% of the variance in interannual growth rates of beetle populations, indicating that it is but a weak driver of population dynamics in the southeastern United States as a whole. However, average population growth rate matched theoretical predictions of a process-based model of winter mortality from low temperatures; apparently our knowledge of population effects from winter temperatures is satisfactory, and may help to predict dynamics of northern populations, even while adding little to population predictions in southern forests. Recent episodes of D. frontalis outbreaks in northern forests may have been allowed by a warming trend from 1960 to 2004 of 3.3 degrees C in minimum winter air temperatures in the southeastern United States. Studies that combine climatic analyses, physiological experiments, and spatially replicated time series of population abundance can improve population predictions, contribute to a synthesis of population and physiological ecology, and aid in assessing the ecological consequences of climatic trends.

Antagonisms, mutualisms and commensalisms affect outbreak dynamics of the southern pine beetle

Feedback from community interactions involving mutualisms are a rarely explored mechanism for generating complex population dynamics. We examined the effects of two linked mutualisms on the population dynamics of a beetle that exhibits outbreak dynamics. One mutualism involves an obligate association between the bark beetle, Dendroctonus frontalis and two mycangial fungi. The second mutualism involves Tarsonemus mites that are phoretic on D. frontalis ("commensal"), and a blue-staining fungus, Ophiostoma minus. The presence of O. minus reduces beetle larval survival ("antagonistic") by outcompeting beetle-mutualistic fungi within trees yet supports mite populations by acting as a nutritional mutualist. These linked interactions potentially create an interaction system with the form of an endogenous negative feedback loop. We address four hypotheses: (1) Direct negative feedback: Beetles directly increase the abundance of O. minus, which reduces per capita reproduction of beetles. (2) Indirect negative feedback: Beetles indirectly increase mite abundance, which increases O. minus, which decreases beetle reproduction. (3) The effect of O. minus on beetles depends on mites, but mite abundance is independent of beetle abundance. (4) The effect of O. minus on beetles is independent of beetle and mite abundance. High Tarsonemus and O. minus abundances were strongly correlated with the decline and eventual local extinction of beetle populations. Manipulation experiments revealed strong negative effects of O. minus on beetles, but falsified the hypothesis that horizontal transmission of O. minus generates negative feedback. Surveys of beetle populations revealed that reproductive rates of Tarsonemus, O. minus, and beetles covaried in a manner consistent with strong indirect interactions between organisms. Co-occurrence of mutualisms embedded within a community may have stabilizing effects if both mutualisms limit each other. However, delays and/or non-linearities in the interaction systems may result in large population fluctuations.