Stability and variability in competitive communities

Towards mechanistic integration of the causes and consequences of biodiversity

The global biodiversity crisis has stimulated decades of research on three themes: species coexistence, biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships (BEF), and biodiversity-ecosystem functional stability relationships (BEFS). However, studies on these themes are largely independent, creating barriers to an integrative understanding of the causes and consequences of biodiversity. Here we review recent progress towards mechanistic integration of coexistence, BEF, and BEFS. Mechanisms underlying the three themes can be linked in various ways, potentially creating either positive or negative relationships between them. That said, we generally expect positive associations between coexistence and BEF, and between BEF and BEFS. Our synthesis represents an initial step towards integrating causes and consequences of biodiversity; future developments should include more mechanistic approaches and broader ecological contexts.

Facilitation and competition deconstructed: a mechanistic modelling approach to the stress gradient hypothesis applied to drylands

Facilitative interactions among species are key in plant communities. While experimental tests support the Stress Gradient Hypothesis (SGH) as an association between facilitation and stress, whether the shape of net effects along stress gradients can be predicted is controversial, with no available mathematical modelling approaches. We proposed a novel test, using a modification of the R* model to study how negative and positive partial effects of plant interactions in drylands combine along two common stress gradients. We modelled different interactions: competition for water and light, amelioration of soil infiltration and/or grazing protection, obtaining that intensity and importance of facilitation did not generally increase along stress gradients, being dependent on the interaction type. While along the water stress gradient net interactions became more positive, reaching a maximum and then waning again, various outcomes were observed along the grazing gradient. Shape variety was mainly driven by the various shapes of the partial positive effects. Under resource stress, additive interaction effects can be expected, whereas when including grazing, the effects were non-additive. In the context of the SGH, deconstructing the effect of positive and negative interaction in a pairwise mechanistic models of drylands does not show a unique shape along stress gradients.

Opposing responses of temporal stability of aboveground and belowground net primary productivity to water and nitrogen enrichment in a temperate grassland

Changes in water and nitrogen availability, as important elements of global environmental change, are known to affect the temporal stability of aboveground net primary productivity (ANPP). However, evidences for their effects on the temporal stability of belowground net primary productivity (BNPP), and whether such effects are consistent between belowground and aboveground, are rather scarce. Here, we investigated the responses of temporal stability of both ANPP and BNPP to water and nitrogen addition based on a 9-year manipulative experiment in a temperate grassland in northern China. The results showed that the temporal stability of ANPP increased with water addition but decreased with nitrogen addition. By contrast, the temporal stability of BNPP decreased with water addition but increased with nitrogen enrichment. The temporal stability of ANPP was mainly determined by the soil moisture and inorganic nitrogen, which modulated species asynchrony, as well as by the stability of dominant species. On the other hand, the temporal stability of BNPP was mainly driven by the soil moisture and inorganic nitrogen that modulated ANPP of grasses, and by the direct effect of soil water availability. Our study provides the first evidence on the opposite responses of aboveground and belowground grassland temporal stability to increased water and nitrogen availability, highlighting the importance of considering both aboveground and belowground components of ecosystems for a more comprehensive understanding of their dynamics.

Nitrogen addition strengthens the stabilizing effect of biodiversity on productivity by increasing plant trait diversity and species asynchrony in the artificial grassland communities

Background and aims

Nitrogen (N) enrichment usually weakens the stabilizing effect of biodiversity on productivity. However, previous studies focused on plant species richness and thus largely ignored the potential contributions of plant functional traits to stability, even though evidence is increasing that functional traits are stronger predictors than species richness of ecosystem functions.

Methods

We conducted a common garden experiment manipulating plant species richness and N addition levels to quantify effects of N addition on relations between species richness and functional trait identity and diversity underpinning the 'fast-slow' economics spectrum and community stability.

Results

Nitrogen addition had a minor effect on community stability but increased the positive effects of species richness on community stability. Increasing community stability was found in the species-rich communities dominated by fast species due to substantially increasing temporal mean productivity relative to its standard deviation. Furthermore, enhancement in 'fast-slow' functional diversity in species-rich communities dominated by fast species under N addition increased species asynchrony, resulting in a robust biodiversity-stability relationship under N addition the artificial grassland communities.

Conclusion

The findings demonstrate mechanistic links between plant species richness, 'fast-slow' functional traits, and community stability under N addition, suggesting that dynamics of biodiversity-stability relations under global changes are the results of species-specific responses of 'fast-slow' traits on the plant economics spectrum.

Changing climate and reorganized species interactions modify community responses to climate variability

While an array of ecological mechanisms has been shown to stabilize natural community dynamics, how the effectiveness of these mechanisms-including both their direction (stabilizing vs. destabilizing) and strength-shifts under a changing climate remains unknown. Using a 35-y dataset (1985 to 2019) from a desert stream in central Arizona (USA), we found that as annual mean air temperature rose 1°C and annual mean precipitation reduced by 40% over the last two decades, macroinvertebrate communities experienced dramatic changes, from relatively stable states during the first 15 y of this study to wildly fluctuating states highly sensitive to climate variability in the last 10 y. Asynchronous species responses to climatic variability, the primary mechanism historically undergirding community stability, greatly weakened. The emerging climate regime-specifically, concurrent warming and prolonged multiyear drought-resulted in community-wide synchronous responses and reduced taxa richness. Diversity loss and new establishment of competitors reorganized species interactions. Unlike manipulative experiments that often suggest stabilizing roles of species interactions, we found that reorganized species interactions switched from stabilizing to destabilizing influences, further amplifying community fluctuations. Our study provides evidence of climate change-induced modifications of mechanisms underpinning long-term community stability, resulting in an overall destabilizing effect.

Nitrogen addition and mowing alter drought resistance and recovery of grassland communities

Nitrogen enrichment and land use are known to influence various ecosystems, but how these anthropogenic changes influence community and ecosystem responses to disturbance remains poorly understood. Here we investigated the effects of increased nitrogen input and mowing on the resistance and recovery of temperate semiarid grassland experiencing a three-year drought. Nitrogen addition increased grassland biomass recovery but decreased structural recovery after drought, whereas annual mowing increased grassland biomass recovery and structural recovery but reduced structural resistance to drought. The treatment effects on community biomass/structural resistance and recovery were largely modulated by the stability of the dominant species and asynchronous dynamics among species, and the community biomass resistance and recovery were also greatly driven by the stability of grasses. Community biomass resistance/recovery in response to drought was positively associated with its corresponding structural stability. Our study provides important experimental evidence that both nitrogen addition and mowing could substantially change grassland stability in both functional and structural aspects. Our findings emphasize the need to study changes across levels of ecological organization for a more complete understanding of ecosystem responses to disturbances under widespread environmental changes.

Density, Temperature, and Comingled Species Affect Fitness within Carrion Communities: Coexistence in Phormia regina and Lucilia sericata (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

Blow fly (Diptera: Calliphoridae) interactions vary between competition and facilitation. Female blow flies engage in aggregated egg-laying, resulting in larval feeding masses differing in density and species composition. Numerous species are abundant within the same season, and some oviposit near or directly on eggs of other species, modifying their oviposition location choice depending on the presence or absence of other species. The ability to coexist on carrion, a temporary resource, was successfully attributed to resource, spatial, and temporal heterogeneity. Despite these broad categorizations, the specific mechanisms of coexistence within blow fly communities require further investigation. This study investigates variation in temperature and larval density as potential mechanisms of coexistence between two forensically important blow fly species: Lucilia sericata Meigen and Phormia regina Meigen (Diptera: Calliphoridae). Larval density, species ratio mix, and ambient temperature during development were manipulated in the presence of conspecifics and heterospecifics in the laboratory, and the fitness of each species was measured. In heterospecific treatments, the survival and body size of P. regina increased even at high ambient temperatures. In contrast, the survival of L. sericata remained unaffected by density or presence of heterospecifics, whereas body size increased in L. sericata-dominated heterospecific treatments depending on temperature and density. The negative effects of density were observed at high ambient temperatures, suggesting that density impacts are a function of ambient temperature. Overall, species coexistence was dependent on temperature, which mediated the outcome of species interactions.

Ranking species based on sensitivity to perturbations under non-equilibrium community dynamics

Managing ecological communities requires fast detection of species that are sensitive to perturbations. Yet, the focus on recovery to equilibrium has prevented us from assessing species responses to perturbations when abundances fluctuate over time. Here, we introduce two data-driven approaches (expected sensitivity and eigenvector rankings) based on the time-varying Jacobian matrix to rank species over time according to their sensitivity to perturbations on abundances. Using several population dynamics models, we demonstrate that we can infer these rankings from time-series data to predict the order of species sensitivities. We find that the most sensitive species are not always the ones with the most rapidly changing or lowest abundance, which are typical criteria used to monitor populations. Finally, using two empirical time series, we show that sensitive species tend to be harder to forecast. Our results suggest that incorporating information on species interactions can improve how we manage communities out of equilibrium.

Biodiversity stabilizes plant communities through statistical-averaging effects rather than compensatory dynamics

Understanding the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem stability is a central goal of ecologists. Recent studies have concluded that biodiversity increases community temporal stability by increasing the asynchrony between the dynamics of different species. Theoretically, this enhancement can occur through either increased between-species compensatory dynamics, a fundamentally biological mechanism; or through an averaging effect, primarily a statistical mechanism. Yet it remains unclear which mechanism is dominant in explaining the diversity-stability relationship. We address this issue by mathematically decomposing asynchrony into components separately quantifying the compensatory and statistical-averaging effects. We applied the new decomposition approach to plant survey and experimental data from North American grasslands. We show that statistical averaging, rather than compensatory dynamics, was the principal mediator of biodiversity effects on community stability. Our simple decomposition approach helps integrate concepts of stability, asynchrony, statistical averaging, and compensatory dynamics, and suggests that statistical averaging, rather than compensatory dynamics, is the primary means by which biodiversity confers ecological stability.

Effect of delay on the emergent stability patterns in generalized Lotka-Volterra ecological dynamics

Understanding the conditions of feasibility and stability in ecological systems is a major challenge in theoretical ecology. The seminal work of May in 1972 and recent developments based on the theory of random matrices have shown the existence of emergent universal patterns of both stability and feasibility in ecological dynamics. However, only a few studies have investigated the role of delay coupled with population dynamics in the emergence of feasible and stable states. In this work, we study the effects of delay on generalized Loka-Volterra population dynamics of several interacting species in closed ecological environments. First, we investigate the relation between feasibility and stability of the modelled ecological community in the absence of delay and find a simple analytical relation when intra-species interactions are dominant. We then show how, by increasing the time delay, there is a transition in the stability phases of the population dynamics: from an equilibrium state to a stable non-point attractor phase. We calculate analytically the critical delay of that transition and show that it is in excellent agreement with numerical simulations. Finally, following a similar approach to characterizing stability in empirical studies, we investigate the coefficient of variation, which quantifies the magnitude of population fluctuations. We show that in the oscillatory regime induced by the delay, the variability at community level decreases for increasing diversity. This article is part of the theme issue 'Emergent phenomena in complex physical and socio-technical systems: from cells to societies'.

Looking for compensation at multiple scales in a wetland bird community

Compensatory dynamics, during which community composition shifts despite a near‐constant total community size, are usually rare: Synchronous dynamics prevail in natural communities. This is a puzzle for ecologists, because of the key role of compensation in explaining the relation between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning. However, most studies so far have considered compensation in either plants or planktonic organisms, so that evidence for the generality of such synchrony is limited. Here, we extend analyses of community‐level synchrony to wetland birds. We analyze a 35‐year monthly survey of a community where we suspected that compensation might occur due to potential competition and changes in water levels, favoring birds with different habitat preferences. We perform both year‐to‐year analyses by season, using a compensation/synchrony index, and multiscale analyses using a wavelet‐based measure, which allows for both scale‐ and time‐dependence. We analyze synchrony both within and between guilds, with guilds defined either as tightknit phylogenetic groups or as larger functional groups. We find that abundance and biomass compensation are rare, likely due to the synchronizing influence of climate (and other drivers) on birds, even after considering several temporal scales of covariation (during either cold or warm seasons, above or below the annual scale). Negative covariation in abundance at the guild or community level did only appear at the scale of a few months or several years. We also found that synchrony varies with taxonomic and functional scale: The rare cases where compensation appeared consistently in year‐to‐year analyses were between rather than within functional groups. Our results suggest that abundance compensation may have more potential to emerge between broad functional groups rather than between species, and at relatively long temporal scales (multiple years for vertebrates), above that of the dominant synchronizing driver.

Resilience integrates concepts in aging research

Aging research is unparalleled in the breadth of disciplines it encompasses, from evolutionary studies examining the forces that shape aging to molecular studies uncovering the underlying mechanisms of age-related functional decline. Despite a common focus to advance our understanding of aging, these disciplines have proceeded along distinct paths with little cross-talk. We propose that the concept of resilience can bridge this gap. Resilience describes the ability of a system to respond to perturbations by returning to its original state. Although resilience has been applied in a few individual disciplines in aging research such as frailty and cognitive decline, it has not been explored as a unifying conceptual framework that is able to connect distinct research fields. We argue that because a resilience-based framework can cross broad physiological levels and time scales it can provide the missing links that connect these diverse disciplines. The resulting framework will facilitate predictive modeling and validation and influence targets and directions in research on the biology of aging.

Temporal variability in population and community dynamics

Populations and communities fluctuate in their overall numbers through time, and the magnitude of fluctuations in individual species may scale to communities. However, the composite variability at the community scale is expected to be tempered by opposing fluctuations in individual populations, a phenomenon often called the portfolio effect. Understanding population variability, how it scales to community variability, and the spatial scaling in this variability are pressing needs given shifting environmental conditions and community composition. We explore evidence for portfolio effects using null community simulations and a large collection of empirical community time series from the BioTIME database. Additionally, we explore the relative roles of habitat type and geographic location on population and community temporal variability. We find strong portfolio effects in our theoretical community model, but weak effects in empirical data, suggesting a role for shared environmental responses, interspecific competition, or a litany of other factors. Furthermore, we observe a clear latitudinal signal - and differences among habitat types - in population and community variability. Together, this highlights the need to develop realistic models of community dynamics, and hints at spatial, and underlying environmental, gradients in variability in both population and community dynamics.

Biodiversity as insurance: from concept to measurement and application

Biological insurance theory predicts that, in a variable environment, aggregate ecosystem properties will vary less in more diverse communities because declines in the performance or abundance of some species or phenotypes will be offset, at least partly, by smoother declines or increases in others. During the past two decades, ecology has accumulated strong evidence for the stabilising effect of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning. As biological insurance is reaching the stage of a mature theory, it is critical to revisit and clarify its conceptual foundations to guide future developments, applications and measurements. In this review, we first clarify the connections between the insurance and portfolio concepts that have been used in ecology and the economic concepts that inspired them. Doing so points to gaps and mismatches between ecology and economics that could be filled profitably by new theoretical developments and new management applications. Second, we discuss some fundamental issues in biological insurance theory that have remained unnoticed so far and that emerge from some of its recent applications. In particular, we draw a clear distinction between the two effects embedded in biological insurance theory, i.e. the effects of biodiversity on the mean and variability of ecosystem properties. This distinction allows explicit consideration of trade-offs between the mean and stability of ecosystem processes and services. We also review applications of biological insurance theory in ecosystem management. Finally, we provide a synthetic conceptual framework that unifies the various approaches across disciplines, and we suggest new ways in which biological insurance theory could be extended to address new issues in ecology and ecosystem management. Exciting future challenges include linking the effects of biodiversity on ecosystem functioning and stability, incorporating multiple functions and feedbacks, developing new approaches to partition biodiversity effects across scales, extending biological insurance theory to complex interaction networks, and developing new applications to biodiversity and ecosystem management.

Fluctuation spectra of large random dynamical systems reveal hidden structure in ecological networks

Understanding the relationship between complexity and stability in large dynamical systems-such as ecosystems-remains a key open question in complexity theory which has inspired a rich body of work developed over more than fifty years. The vast majority of this theory addresses asymptotic linear stability around equilibrium points, but the idea of 'stability' in fact has other uses in the empirical ecological literature. The important notion of 'temporal stability' describes the character of fluctuations in population dynamics, driven by intrinsic or extrinsic noise. Here we apply tools from random matrix theory to the problem of temporal stability, deriving analytical predictions for the fluctuation spectra of complex ecological networks. We show that different network structures leave distinct signatures in the spectrum of fluctuations, and demonstrate the application of our theory to the analysis of ecological time-series data of plankton abundances.

Functional trait effects on ecosystem stability: assembling the jigsaw puzzle

Under global change, how biological diversity and ecosystem services are maintained in time is a fundamental question. Ecologists have long argued about multiple mechanisms by which local biodiversity might control the temporal stability of ecosystem properties. Accumulating theories and empirical evidence suggest that, together with different population and community parameters, these mechanisms largely operate through differences in functional traits among organisms. We review potential trait-stability mechanisms together with underlying tests and associated metrics. We identify various trait-based components, each accounting for different stability mechanisms, that contribute to buffering, or propagating, the effect of environmental fluctuations on ecosystem functioning. This comprehensive picture, obtained by combining different puzzle pieces of trait-stability effects, will guide future empirical and modeling investigations.

Temporal resource partitioning mitigates interspecific competition and promotes coexistence among insect parasites

A key to understanding life's great diversity is discerning how competing organisms divide limiting resources to coexist in diverse communities. While temporal resource partitioning has long been hypothesized to reduce the negative effects of interspecific competition, empirical evidence suggests that time may not often be an axis along which animal species routinely subdivide resources. Here, we present evidence to the contrary in the world's most biodiverse group of animals: insect parasites (parasitoids). Specifically, we conducted a meta-analysis of 64 studies from 41 publications to determine if temporal resource partitioning via variation in the timing of a key life-history trait, egg deposition (oviposition), mitigates interspecific competition between species pairs sharing the same insect host. When competing species were manipulated to oviposit at (or near) the same time in or on a single host in the laboratory, competition was common, and one species was typically inherently superior (i.e. survived to adulthood a greater proportion of the time). In most cases, however, the inferior competitor could gain a survivorship advantage by ovipositing earlier (or in a smaller number of cases later) into shared hosts. Moreover, this positive (or in a few cases negative) priority advantage gained by the inferior competitor increased as the interval between oviposition times became greater. The results from manipulative experiments were also correlated with patterns of life-history timing and demography in nature: the more inherently competitively inferior a species was in the laboratory, the greater the interval between oviposition times of taxa in co-occurring populations. Additionally, the larger the interval between oviposition times of competing taxa, the more abundant the inferior species was in populations where competitors were known to coexist. Overall, our findings suggest that temporal resource partitioning via variation in oviposition timing may help to facilitate species coexistence and structures diverse insect communities by altering demographic measures of species success. We argue that the lack of evidence for a more prominent role of temporal resource partitioning in promoting species coexistence may reflect taxonomic differences, with a bias towards larger-sized animals. For smaller species like parasitic insects that are specialized to attack one or a group of closely related hosts, have short adult lifespans and discrete generation times, compete directly for limited resources in small, closed arenas and have life histories constrained by host phenology, temporal resource subdivision via variation in life history may play a critical role in allowing species to coexist by alleviating the negative effects of interspecific competition.

Consistently positive effect of species diversity on ecosystem, but not population, temporal stability

Despite much recent progress, our understanding of diversity-stability relationships across different study systems remains incomplete. In particular, recent theory clarified that within-species population stability and among-species asynchronous population dynamics combine to determine ecosystem temporal stability, but their relative importance in modulating diversity-ecosystem temporal stability relationships in different ecosystems remains unclear. We addressed this issue with a meta-analysis of empirical studies of ecosystem and population temporal stability in relation to species diversity across a range of taxa and ecosystems. We show that ecosystem temporal stability tended to increase with species diversity, regardless of study systems. Increasing diversity promoted asynchrony, which, in turn, contributed to increased ecosystem stability. The positive diversity-ecosystem stability relationship persisted even after accounting for the influences of environmental covariates (e.g., precipitation and nutrient input). By contrast, species diversity tended to reduce population temporal stability in terrestrial systems but increase population temporal stability in aquatic systems, suggesting that asynchronous dynamics among species are essential for stabilizing diverse terrestrial ecosystems. We conclude that there is compelling empirical evidence for a general positive relationship between species diversity and ecosystem-level temporal stability, but the contrasting diversity-population temporal stability relationships between terrestrial and aquatic systems call for more investigations into their underlying mechanisms.

How complementarity and selection affect the relationship between ecosystem functioning and stability

The biotic mechanisms underlying ecosystem functioning and stability have been extensively-but separately-explored in the literature, making it difficult to understand the relationship between functioning and stability. In this study, we used community models to examine how complementarity and selection, the two major biodiversity mechanisms known to enhance ecosystem biomass production, affect ecosystem stability. Our analytic and simulation results show that although complementarity promotes stability, selection impairs it. The negative effects of selection on stability operate through weakening portfolio effects and selecting species that have high productivity but low tolerance to perturbations ("risk-prone" species). In contrast, complementarity enhances stability by increasing portfolio effects and reducing the relative abundance of risk-prone species. Consequently, ecosystem functioning and stability exhibit either a synergy, if complementarity effects prevail, or trade-off, if selection effects prevail. Across species richness levels, ecosystem functioning and stability tend to be positively related, but negative relationships can occur when selection co-varies with richness. Our findings provide novel insights for understanding the functioning-stability relationship, with potential implications for both ecological research and ecosystem management.

Synchrony matters more than species richness in plant community stability at a global scale

The stability of ecological communities is critical for the stable provisioning of ecosystem services, such as food and forage production, carbon sequestration, and soil fertility. Greater biodiversity is expected to enhance stability across years by decreasing synchrony among species, but the drivers of stability in nature remain poorly resolved. Our analysis of time series from 79 datasets across the world showed that stability was associated more strongly with the degree of synchrony among dominant species than with species richness. The relatively weak influence of species richness is consistent with theory predicting that the effect of richness on stability weakens when synchrony is higher than expected under random fluctuations, which was the case in most communities. Land management, nutrient addition, and climate change treatments had relatively weak and varying effects on stability, modifying how species richness, synchrony, and stability interact. Our results demonstrate the prevalence of biotic drivers on ecosystem stability, with the potential for environmental drivers to alter the intricate relationship among richness, synchrony, and stability.

Addressing initialisation uncertainty for end-to-end ecosystem models: application to the Chatham Rise Atlantis model

Ecosystem models require the specification of initial conditions, and these initial conditions have some level of uncertainty. It is important to allow for uncertainty when presenting model results, because it reduces the risk of errant or non-representative results. It is crucial that model results are presented as an envelope of what is likely, rather than presenting only one instance. We perturbed the initial conditions of the Chatham Rise Atlantis model and analysed the effect of this uncertainty on the model’s dynamics by comparing the model outputs resulting from many initial condition perturbations. At the species group level, we found some species groups were more sensitive than others, with lower trophic level species groups generally more sensitive to perturbations of the initial conditions. We recommend testing for robust system dynamics by assessing the consistency of ecosystem indicators in response to fishing pressure under perturbed initial conditions. In any set of scenarios explored using complex end-to-end ecosystem models, we recommend that associated uncertainty analysis be included with perturbations of the initial conditions.

How community adaptation affects biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships

Evidence is growing that evolutionary dynamics can impact biodiversity-ecosystem functioning (BEF) relationships. However the nature of such impacts remains poorly understood. Here we use a modelling approach to compare random communities, with no trait evolutionary fine-tuning, and co-adapted communities, where traits have co-evolved, in terms of emerging biodiversity-productivity, biodiversity-stability and biodiversity-invasion relationships. Community adaptation impacted most BEF relationships, sometimes inverting the slope of the relationship compared to random communities. Biodiversity-productivity relationships were generally less positive among co-adapted communities, with reduced contribution of sampling effects. The effect of community-adaptation, though modest regarding invasion resistance, was striking regarding invasion tolerance: co-adapted communities could remain very tolerant to invasions even at high diversity. BEF relationships are thus contingent on the history of ecosystems and their degree of community adaptation. Short-term experiments and observations following recent changes may not be safely extrapolated into the future, once eco-evolutionary feedbacks have taken place.

Local species diversity, β-diversity and climate influence the regional stability of bird biomass across North America

Biodiversity often stabilizes aggregate ecosystem properties (e.g. biomass) at small spatial scales. However, the importance of species diversity within communities and variation in species composition among communities (β-diversity) for stability at larger scales remains unclear. Using a continental-scale analysis of 1657 North American breeding-bird communities spanning 20-years and 35 ecoregions, we show local species diversity and β-diversity influence two components of regional stability: local stability (stability of bird biomass within sites) and spatial asynchrony (asynchronous fluctuations in biomass among sites). We found spatial asynchrony explained three times more variation in regional stability of bird biomass than did local stability. This result contrasts with studies at smaller spatial scales-typically plant metacommunities under 1 ha-that find local stability to be more important than spatial asynchrony. Moreover, spatial asynchrony of bird biomass increased with bird β-diversity and climate heterogeneity (temperature and precipitation), while local stability increased with species diversity. Our study reveals new insights into the scale-dependent processes regulating ecosystem stability, providing evidence that both local biodiversity loss and homogenization can destabilize ecosystem processes at biogeographic scales.

When facilitation meets clonal integration in forest canopies

Few studies have explored how - within the same system - clonality and positive plant-plant interactions might interact to regulate plant community composition. Canopy-dwelling epiphytes in species-rich forests provide an ideal system for studying this because many epiphytic vascular plants undertake clonal growth and because vascular epiphytes colonize canopy habitats after the formation of nonvascular epiphyte (i.e. bryophyte and lichen) mats. We investigated how clonal integration of seven dominant vascular epiphytes influenced inter-specific interactions between vascular epiphytes and nonvascular epiphytes in a subtropical montane moist forest in southwest China. Both clonal integration and environmental buffering from nonvascular epiphytes increased survival and growth of vascular epiphytes. The benefits of clonal integration for vascular epiphytes were higher when nonvascular epiphytes were removed. Similarly, facilitation from nonvascular epiphytes played a more important role when clonal integration of vascular epiphytes was eliminated. Overall, clonal integration had greater benefits than inter-specific facilitation. This study provides novel evidence for interactive effects of clonality and facilitation between vascular and nonvascular species, and has implications for our understanding of a wide range of ecosystems where both high levels of clonality and facilitation are expected to occur.

Predicting resilience of ecosystem functioning from co-varying species' responses to environmental change

Understanding how environmental change affects ecosystem function delivery is of primary importance for fundamental and applied ecology. Current approaches focus on single environmental driver effects on communities, mediated by individual response traits. Data limitations present constraints in scaling up this approach to predict the impacts of multivariate environmental change on ecosystem functioning. We present a more holistic approach to determine ecosystem function resilience, using long-term monitoring data to analyze the aggregate impact of multiple historic environmental drivers on species' population dynamics. By assessing covariation in population dynamics between pairs of species, we identify which species respond most synchronously to environmental change and allocate species into "response guilds." We then use "production functions" combining trait data to estimate the relative roles of species to ecosystem functions. We quantify the correlation between response guilds and production functions, assessing the resilience of ecosystem functioning to environmental change, with asynchronous dynamics of species in the same functional guild expected to lead to more stable ecosystem functioning. Testing this method using data for butterflies collected over four decades in the United Kingdom, we find three ecosystem functions (resource provisioning, wildflower pollination, and aesthetic cultural value) appear relatively robust, with functionally important species dispersed across response guilds, suggesting more stable ecosystem functioning. Additionally, by relating genetic distances to response guilds we assess the heritability of responses to environmental change. Our results suggest it may be feasible to infer population responses of butterflies to environmental change based on phylogeny-a useful insight for conservation management of rare species with limited population monitoring data. Our approach holds promise for overcoming the impasse in predicting the responses of ecosystem functions to environmental change. Quantifying co-varying species' responses to multivariate environmental change should enable us to significantly advance our predictions of ecosystem function resilience and enable proactive ecosystem management.

A Decision Framework for Coastal Infrastructure to Optimize Biotic Resistance and Resilience in a Changing Climate

Coastal ecosystems are under growing pressure from human activities such as pollution and climate change. Although the rapidly growing numbers of humans living in coastal areas is a large part of the problem, there is great opportunity to improve the resistance and resilience of biotic communities via creative changes to the engineering design of built infrastructure. Here, we apply ecological theories to create a framework for adaptive building in marine systems that can be applied by managers worldwide. We explain how climate effects could be mitigated across different spatial scales with both physical and biological interventions. This requires an approach based on ecological theory that incorporates our understanding of how systems withstand (resistance) or recover (resilience) from impacts and takes into account future local and global environmental conditions. By translating ecological theory into practical application, we propose a framework for the choice and design of coastal infrastructure that can underpin effective, forward-looking conservation strategies.

The effect of temporal fluctuations on the evolution of host tolerance to parasitism

There are many mechanisms that hosts can evolve to defend against parasites, two of which are resistance and tolerance. These defences often have different evolutionary behaviours, and it is important to consider how each individual mechanism may respond to changes in environment. In particular, host defence through tolerance is predicted to be unlikely to lead to variation, despite many observations of diversity in both animal and plant systems. Hence understanding the drivers of diversity in host defence and parasite virulence is vital for predicting future evolutionary changes in infectious disease dynamics. It has been suggested that heterogeneous environments might generally promote diversity, but the effect of temporal fluctuations has received little attention theoretically or empirically, and there has been no examination of how temporal fluctuations affects the evolution of host tolerance. In this study, we use a mathematical model to investigate the evolution of host tolerance in a temporally fluctuating environment. We show that investment in tolerance increases in more variable environments, giving qualitatively different evolutionary behaviours when compared to resistance. Once seasonality is introduced evolutionary branching though tolerance can occur and create diversity within the population, although potentially only temporarily. This branching behaviour arises due to the emergence of a negative feedback with the maximum infected density on a cycle, which is strongest when the infected population is large. This work reinforces the qualitative differences between tolerance and resistance evolution, but also provides theoretical evidence for the theory that heterogeneous environments promote host-parasite diversity, hence constant environment assumptions may omit important evolutionary outcomes.

Assessing the utility of conserving evolutionary history

It is often claimed that conserving evolutionary history is more efficient than species‐based approaches for capturing the attributes of biodiversity that benefit people. This claim underpins academic analyses and recommendations about the distribution and prioritization of species and areas for conservation, but evolutionary history is rarely considered in practical conservation activities. One impediment to implementation is that arguments related to the human‐centric benefits of evolutionary history are often vague and the underlying mechanisms poorly explored. Herein we identify the arguments linking the prioritization of evolutionary history with benefits to people, and for each we explicate the purported mechanism, and evaluate its theoretical and empirical support. We find that, even after 25 years of academic research, the strength of evidence linking evolutionary history to human benefits is still fragile.

Most – but not all – arguments rely on the assumption that evolutionary history is a useful surrogate for phenotypic diversity. This surrogacy relationship in turn underlies additional arguments, particularly that, by capturing more phenotypic diversity, evolutionary history will preserve greater ecosystem functioning, capture more of the natural variety that humans prefer, and allow the maintenance of future benefits to humans. A surrogate relationship between evolutionary history and phenotypic diversity appears reasonable given theoretical and empirical results, but the strength of this relationship varies greatly. To the extent that evolutionary history captures unmeasured phenotypic diversity, maximizing the representation of evolutionary history should capture variation in species characteristics that are otherwise unknown, supporting some of the existing arguments. However, there is great variation in the strength and availability of evidence for benefits associated with protecting phenotypic diversity. There are many studies finding positive biodiversity–ecosystem functioning relationships, but little work exists on the maintenance of future benefits or the degree to which humans prefer sets of species with high phenotypic diversity or evolutionary history. Although several arguments link the protection of evolutionary history directly with the reduction of extinction rates, and with the production of relatively greater future biodiversity via increased adaptation or diversification, there are few direct tests. Several of these putative benefits have mismatches between the relevant spatial scales for conservation actions and the spatial scales at which benefits to humans are realized. It will be important for future work to fill in some of these gaps through direct tests of the arguments we define here.

The three regimes of spatial recovery

An enduring challenge for ecology is identifying the drivers of ecosystem and population stability. In a spatially explicit context, key features to consider are landscape spatial structure, local interactions, and dispersal. Substantial work has been done on each of these features as a driver of stability, but little is known on the interplay between them. Missing has been a more integrative approach, able to map and identify different dynamical regimes, predicting a system's response to perturbations. Here we first consider a simple scenario, i.e., the recovery of a homogeneous metapopulation from a single localized pulse disturbance. The analysis of this scenario reveals three fundamental recovery regimes: Isolated Regime when dispersal is not significant, Rescue Regime when dispersal mediates recovery, and Mixing Regime when perturbations spread throughout the system. Despite its simplicity, our approach leads to remarkably general predictions. These include the qualitatively different outcomes of various scenarios of habitat fragmentation, the surprising benefits of local extinctions on population persistence at the transition between regimes, and the productivity shifts of metacommunities in a changing environment. This study thus provides context to known results and insight into future directions of research.

Differential pollinator response underlies plant reproductive resilience after fires

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Assessing the resilience of plant-animal interactions is critical to understanding how plant communities respond to habitat disturbances. Most ecosystems experience some level of natural disturbance (e.g. wildfires) to which many organisms are adapted. Wildfires have structured biotic communities for millennia; however, the effects of fire on interactions such as pollination have only recently received attention. A few studies have shown that generalist plants can buffer the impact of fires by pollinator replacement, suggesting that the resilience to disturbance could depend on the level of specialization of the interactions. Here, we hypothesize that (1) fires could impose negative effects on plants with specialized pollination systems, and (2) in large wildfires, these negative effects will be stronger with increasing distance inside the burnt area because pollinators will need more time to recolonize.

METHODS

These questions were tested in the specialized pollination system of a widespread Mediterranean palm, Chamaerops humilis. The post-fire pollination resilience was assessed in replicated wildfires representing three post-fire ages by measuring the abundance of beetle pollinators and by estimating fruit set (i.e. the proportion of flowers setting fruits) in burnt and unburnt areas. To test for distance effects, plants were sampled along transects inside the burnt area.

KEY RESULTS

Despite a marked post-fire decline in the specialist pollinator, exacerbated by the distance from the fire's edge, the palm's fruit set was barely affected. The temporary replacement by a sap beetle at burnt sites - an effective pollinator that had not been previously recognized - provided post-fire reproductive resilience.

CONCLUSIONS

Differential pollinator responses to disturbance can ensure plant success even in plants with only two functionally similar pollinators. This highlights the importance of pollinator replacement and dynamics for the resilience of interactions and ultimately of plant reproduction in disturbance-prone ecosystems.

Quantifying resilience of humans and other animals

All life requires the capacity to recover from challenges that are as inevitable as they are unpredictable. Understanding this resilience is essential for managing the health of humans and their livestock. It has long been difficult to quantify resilience directly, forcing practitioners to rely on indirect static indicators of health. However, measurements from wearable electronics and other sources now allow us to analyze the dynamics of physiology and behavior with unsurpassed resolution. The resulting flood of data coincides with the emergence of novel analytical tools for estimating resilience from the pattern of microrecoveries observed in natural time series. Such dynamic indicators of resilience may be used to monitor the risk of systemic failure across systems ranging from organs to entire organisms. These tools invite a fundamental rethinking of our approach to the adaptive management of health and resilience.

Compensatory dynamics stabilize aggregate community properties in response to multiple types of perturbations

Compensatory dynamics are an important suite of mechanisms that can stabilize community and ecosystem attributes in systems subject to environmental fluctuations. However, few experimental investigations of compensatory dynamics have addressed these mechanisms in systems of real-world complexity, and existing evidence relies heavily on correlative analyses, retrospective examination, and experiments in simple systems. We investigated the potential for compensatory dynamics to stabilize plankton communities in plankton mesocosm systems of real-world complexity. We employed four types of perturbations including two types of nutrient pulses, shading, and acidification. To quantify how communities responded to these perturbations, we used a measure of community-wide synchrony combined with spectral analysis that allowed us to assess timescale-specific community dynamics, for example, whether dynamics were synchronous at some timescales but compensatory at others. The 150-d experiment produced 32-point time series of all zooplankton taxa in the mesocosms. We then used those time series to evaluate total zooplankton biomass as an aggregate property and to evaluate community dynamics. For three of our four perturbation types, total zooplankton biomass was significantly less variable in systems with environmental variation than in constant environments. For the same three perturbation types, community-wide synchrony was much lower in fluctuating environments than in the constant environment, particularly at longer timescales (periods ≈ 60 d). Additionally, there were strong negative correlations between population temporal variances and the level of community-wide synchrony. Taken together, these results strongly imply that compensatory interactions between species stabilized total biomass in response to perturbations. Diversity did not differ significantly across either treatments or perturbation types, thus ruling out several classes of mechanisms driven by changes in diversity. We also used several pieces of secondary evidence to evaluate the particular mechanism behind compensatory responses since a wide variety of mechanisms are hypothesized to produce compensatory dynamics. We concluded that fluctuation dependent endogenous cycles that occur as a consequence of consumer-resource interactions in competitive communities were the most likely explanation for the compensatory dynamics observed in our experiment. As with our previous work, scale-dependent dynamics were also a key to understanding compensatory dynamics in these experimental communities.

Habitat heterogeneity induces rapid changes in the feeding behaviour of generalist arthropod predators

The "habitat heterogeneity hypothesis" predicts positive effects of structural complexity on species coexistence. Increasing habitat heterogeneity can change the diversity (number of species, abundances) and the functional roles of communities. The latter, however, is not well understood as species and individuals may respond very differently and dynamically to a changing environment.Here, we experimentally test how habitat heterogeneity affects generalist arthropod predators, including epigaeic spiders, carabid and staphylinid beetles, under natural conditions by assessing their diversity and directly measuring their trophic interactions (which provide a proxy for their functional roles). The experiment was conducted in spring barley fields in Southern Sweden where habitat heterogeneity was manipulated by increasing within-field plant diversity.Increased habitat heterogeneity triggered rapid changes in the feeding behaviour of generalist predators characterized by lower trophic specialization at both network (H₂', degree of interaction specialization in the entire network) and species level (d', degree of interaction specialization at the species level). We presume that this is because spatial separation resulted in relaxed competition and allowed an increased overlap in resources used among predator species. Predators collected from heterogenous habitats also showed greater individual-level dietary variability which might be ascribed to relaxed intraspecific competition.Our results provide conclusive evidence that habitat heterogeneity can induce rapid behavioural responses independent of changes in diversity, potentially promoting the stability of ecosystem functions. A plain language summary is available for this article.

Unifying relationships between complexity and stability in mutualistic ecological communities

Conserving ecosystem function and associated services requires deep understanding of the underlying basis of system stability. While the study of ecological dynamics is a mature and diverse field, the lack of a general model that predicts a broad range of theoretical and empirical observations has allowed unresolved contradictions to persist. Here we provide a general model of mutualistic ecological interactions between two groups and show for the first time how the conditions for bi-stability, the nature of critical transitions, and identifiable leading indicators in time-series can be derived from the basic parameters describing the underlying ecological interactions. Strong mutualism and nonlinearity in handling-time are found to be necessary conditions for the occurrence of critical transitions. We use the model to resolve open questions concerning the effects of heterogeneity in inter-species interactions on both resilience and abundance, and discuss these in terms of potential trade-offs in real systems. This framework provides a basis for rich investigations of ecological system dynamics, and may be generalizable across many ecological contexts.

Combining field experiments and predictive models to assess potential for increased plant diversity to climate-proof intensive agriculture

Agricultural production systems face increasing threats from more frequent and extreme weather fluctuations associated with global climate change. While there is mounting evidence that increased plant community diversity can reduce the variability of ecosystem functions (such as primary productivity) in the face of environmental fluctuation, there has been little work testing whether this is true for intensively managed agricultural systems. Using statistical modeling techniques to fit environment–productivity relationships offers an efficient means of leveraging hard‐won experimental data to compare the potential variability of different mixtures across a wide range of environmental contexts. We used data from two multiyear field experiments to fit climate–soil–productivity models for two pasture mixtures under intensive grazing—one composed of two drought‐sensitive species (standard), and an eight‐species mixture including several drought‐resistant species (complex). We then used these models to undertake a scoping study estimating the mean and coefficient of variation (CV) of annual productivity for long‐term climate data covering all New Zealand on soils with low, medium, or high water‐holding capacity. Our results suggest that the complex mixture is likely to have consistently lower CV in productivity, irrespective of soil type or climate regime. Predicted differences in mean annual productivity between mixtures were strongly influenced by soil type and were closely linked to mean annual soil water availability across all soil types. Differences in the CV of productivity were only strongly related to interannual variance in water availability for the lowest water‐holding capacity soil. Our results show that there is considerable scope for mixtures including drought‐tolerant species to enhance certainty in intensive pastoral systems. This provides justification for investing resources in a large‐scale distributed experiment involving many sites under different environmental contexts to confirm these findings.

Power of Plankton: Effects of Algal Biodiversity on Biocrude Production and Stability

Algae-derived biocrude oil is a possible renewable energy alternative to fossil fuel based crude oil. Outdoor cultivation in raceway ponds is estimated to provide a better return on energy invested than closed photobioreactor systems. However, in these open systems, algal crops are subjected to environmental variation in temperature and irradiance, as well as biotic invasions which can cause costly crop instabilities. In this paper, we used an experimental approach to investigate the ability of species richness to maximize and stabilize biocrude production in the face of weekly temperature fluctuations between 17 and 27 °C, relative to a constant-temperature control. We hypothesized that species richness would lead to higher mean biocrude production and greater stability of biocrude production over time in the variable temperature environment. Counter to our hypothesis, species richness tended to cause a decline in mean biocrude production, regardless of environmental temperature variation. However, biodiversity did have stabilizing effects on biocrude production over time in the variable temperature environment and not in the constant temperature environment. Altogether, our results suggest that when the most productive and stable monoculture is unknown, inoculating raceway ponds with a diverse mixture of algae will tend to ensure stable harvests over time.

Impacts of dispersal on rapid adaptation and dynamic stability of Daphnia in fluctuating environments

Prior ecological research has shown that spatial processes can enhance the temporal stability of populations in fluctuating environments. Less explored is the effect of dispersal on rapid adaptation and its concomitant impact on population dynamics. For asexually reproducing populations, theory predicts that dispersal in fluctuating environments can facilitate asynchrony among clones and enhance stability by reducing temporal variability of total population abundance. This effect is predicted when clones exhibit heritable variation in environmental optima and when fluctuations occur asynchronously among patches. We tested this in the field using artificial ponds and metapopulations composed of a diverse assemblage of Daphnia pulex clones. We directly manipulated dispersal presence/absence and environmental fluctuations in the form of nutrient pulses. Consistent with predictions, dispersal enhanced temporal asynchrony among clones in the presence of nutrient pulses; this in turn stabilized population dynamics. This effect only emerged when patches experienced spatially asynchronous nutrient pulses (dispersal had no effect when patches were synchronously pulsed). Clonal asynchrony was driven by strong positive selection for a single clone that exhibited a performance advantage under conditions of low resource availability. Our work highlights the importance of dispersal as a driver of eco-evolutionary dynamics and population stability in variable environments.