Demographic trade-offs predict tropical forest dynamics

Feedback loops drive ecological succession: towards a unified conceptual framework

The core principle shared by most theories and models of succession is that, following a major disturbance, plant-environment feedback dynamics drive a directional change in the plant community. The most commonly studied feedback loops are those in which the regrowth of the plant community causes changes to the abiotic (e.g. soil nutrients) or biotic (e.g. dispersers) environment, which differentially affect species availability or performance. This, in turn, leads to shifts in the species composition of the plant community. However, there are many other PE feedback loops that potentially drive succession, each of which can be considered a model of succession. While plant-environment feedback loops in principle generate predictable successional trajectories, succession is generally observed to be highly variable. Factors contributing to this variability are the stochastic processes involved in feedback dynamics, such as individual mortality and seed dispersal, and extrinsic causes of succession, which are not affected by changes in the plant community but do affect species performance or availability. Both can lead to variation in the identity of dominant species within communities. This, in turn, leads to further contingencies if these species differ in their effect on their environment (priority effects). Predictability and variability are thus intrinsically linked features of ecological succession. We present a new conceptual framework of ecological succession that integrates the propositions discussed above. This framework defines seven general causes: landscape context, disturbance and land-use, biotic factors, abiotic factors, species availability, species performance, and the plant community. When involved in a feedback loop, these general causes drive succession and when not, they are extrinsic causes that create variability in successional trajectories and dynamics. The proposed framework provides a guide for linking these general causes into causal pathways that represent specific models of succession. Our framework represents a systematic approach to identifying the main feedback processes and causes of variation at different successional stages. It can be used for systematic comparisons among study sites and along environmental gradients, to conceptualise studies, and to guide the formulation of research questions and design of field studies. Mapping an extensive field study onto our conceptual framework revealed that the pathways representing the study's empirical outcomes and conceptual model had important differences, underlining the need to move beyond the conceptual models that currently dominate in specific fields and to find ways to examine the importance of and interactions among alternative causal pathways of succession. To further this aim, we argue for integrating long-term studies across environmental and anthropogenic gradients, combined with controlled experiments and dynamic modelling.

Tree demographic strategies largely overlap across succession in Neotropical wet and dry forest communities

Secondary tropical forests play an increasingly important role in carbon budgets and biodiversity conservation. Understanding successional trajectories is therefore imperative for guiding forest restoration and climate change mitigation efforts. Forest succession is driven by the demographic strategies-combinations of growth, mortality and recruitment rates-of the tree species in the community. However, our understanding of demographic diversity in tropical tree species stems almost exclusively from old-growth forests. Here, we assembled demographic information from repeated forest inventories along chronosequences in two wet (Costa Rica, Panama) and two dry (Mexico) Neotropical forests to assess whether the ranges of demographic strategies present in a community shift across succession. We calculated demographic rates for >500 tree species while controlling for canopy status to compare demographic diversity (i.e., the ranges of demographic strategies) in early successional (0-30 years), late successional (30-120 years) and old-growth forests using two-dimensional hypervolumes of pairs of demographic rates. Ranges of demographic strategies largely overlapped across successional stages, and early successional stages already covered the full spectrum of demographic strategies found in old-growth forests. An exception was a group of species characterized by exceptionally high mortality rates that was confined to early successional stages in the two wet forests. The range of demographic strategies did not expand with succession. Our results suggest that studies of long-term forest monitoring plots in old-growth forests, from which most of our current understanding of demographic strategies of tropical tree species is derived, are surprisingly representative of demographic diversity in general, but do not replace the need for further studies in secondary forests.

Survival, growth, and functional traits of tropical wet forest tree seedlings across an experimental soil moisture gradient in Puerto Rico

Droughts are predicted to become more frequent and intense in many tropical regions, which may cause shifts in plant community composition. Especially in diverse tropical communities, understanding how traits mediate demographic responses to drought can help provide insight into the effects of climate change on these ecosystems. To understand tropical tree responses to reduced soil moisture, we grew seedlings of eight species across an experimental soil moisture gradient at the Luquillo Experimental Forest, Puerto Rico. We quantified survival and growth over an 8-month period and characterized demographic responses in terms of tolerance to low soil moisture-defined as survival and growth rates under low soil moisture conditions-and sensitivity to variation in soil moisture-defined as more pronounced changes in demographic rates across the observed range of soil moisture. We then compared demographic responses with interspecific variation in a suite of 11 (root, stem, and leaf) functional traits, measured on individuals that survived the experiment. Lower soil moisture was associated with reduced survival and growth but traits mediated species-specific responses. Species with relatively conservative traits (e.g., high leaf mass per area), had higher survival at low soil moisture whereas species with more extensive root systems were more sensitive to soil moisture, in that they exhibited more pronounced changes in growth across the experimental soil moisture gradient. Our results suggest that increasing drought will favor species with more conservative traits that confer greater survival in low soil moisture conditions.

Latitudinal patterns in stabilizing density dependence of forest communities

Numerous studies have shown reduced performance in plants that are surrounded by neighbours of the same species1,2, a phenomenon known as conspecific negative density dependence (CNDD)3. A long-held ecological hypothesis posits that CNDD is more pronounced in tropical than in temperate forests4,5, which increases community stabilization, species coexistence and the diversity of local tree species6,7. Previous analyses supporting such a latitudinal gradient in CNDD8,9 have suffered from methodological limitations related to the use of static data10-12. Here we present a comprehensive assessment of latitudinal CNDD patterns using dynamic mortality data to estimate species-site-specific CNDD across 23 sites. Averaged across species, we found that stabilizing CNDD was present at all except one site, but that average stabilizing CNDD was not stronger toward the tropics. However, in tropical tree communities, rare and intermediate abundant species experienced stronger stabilizing CNDD than did common species. This pattern was absent in temperate forests, which suggests that CNDD influences species abundances more strongly in tropical forests than it does in temperate ones13. We also found that interspecific variation in CNDD, which might attenuate its stabilizing effect on species diversity14,15, was high but not significantly different across latitudes. Although the consequences of these patterns for latitudinal diversity gradients are difficult to evaluate, we speculate that a more effective regulation of population abundances could translate into greater stabilization of tropical tree communities and thus contribute to the high local diversity of tropical forests.

Compositional changes at neighborhood and stand scales during recovery of a tropical lowland rainforest after shifting cultivation on Hainan Island, China

Understanding compositional changes during secondary forest recovery is crucial for effective restoration efforts. While previous research has predominantly focused on shifts in species composition at the stand scale, this study delves into the recovery dynamics in three compositional aspects of location (neighbor distances), size (tree diameters), and species (tree species) at both stand and neighborhood scale. The investigation spans nine chronosequence plots within a tropical lowland rainforest ecosystem after shifting cultivation, including three each for young-secondary forests (18-30 years), old-secondary forests (60 years), and old-growth forests (without obvious human interference). The quantification of location, size, and species composition involved categorized neighbor distances (Near, Moderate, Far-distance), tree diameters (Small, Medium, Large-tree), and tree species (Pioneer, Intermediate, Climax-species) into three groups, respectively. Compositional changes at the stand scale (plot) were directly based on these groups, while at the neighborhood scale, assessment involved combination types of these groups within a neighborhood (comprising three adjacent trees). At the stand scale, neighbor distances shifted from Near to Moderate and Far, tree diameters transitioned from Small to Medium and Large, and tree species of Pioneer gave way to Climax. Meanwhile, at the neighborhood scale, there was a notable decline in the aggregations of Near-distance (N), Small-tree (S), and Pioneer-species (P), while the mixtures of Far and Moderate-distance (F-M), Large and Small-tree (L-S), and Climax and Intermediate-species (C-I) experienced a marked increase. The compositional change exhibited a recovery pattern, with the fastest recovery in neighbor distances, followed by tree diameters and tree species. Moreover, compositional recovery in tree diameters and tree species at the neighborhood scale generally lagged behind that at the stand scale. The study suggests that rapid restoration of secondary forest can be achieved by different targeted cutting according to the recovery stages, aimed at reduce the Pioneer-species, Small-tree and Near-distance in neighborhood. Our findings underscore that analyzing the compositional changes in three aspects at two scales not only provides a profound understanding of secondary forest recovery dynamics, but also offers valuable insights for guiding practices in the restoration of degraded forest ecosystems.

On functional groups and forest dynamics

Functional trait variation measured on continuous scales has helped ecologists to unravel important ecological processes. However, forest ecologists have recently moved back toward using functional groups. There are pragmatic and biological rationales for focusing on functional groups. Both of these approaches have inherent limitations including binning clearly continuous distributions, poor trait-group matching, and narrow conceptual frameworks for why groups exist and how they evolved. We believe the pragmatic use of functional groups due to data deficiencies will eventually erode. Conversely, we argue that existing conceptual frameworks for why a limited number of tree functional groups may exist is a useful, but flawed, starting point for modeling forests that can be improved through the consideration of unmeasured axes of functional variation.

Plant neighbourhood diversity effects on leaf traits: A meta-analysis

Leaf traits often vary with plant neighbourhood composition, which in turn may mediate plant susceptibility to herbivory. However, it is unknown whether there are any common patterns of change in leaf trait expression in response to neighbourhood diversity, and whether these responses confer increased resistance or susceptibility to herbivores.We used meta-analysis to combine data from 43 studies that examined the influence of neighbourhood diversity on eight physical and chemical leaf traits that could affect herbivory. All leaf traits apart from leaf thickness were highly plastic and exhibited significant differences between plant monocultures and species mixtures, but the direction of effect was variable. Leaf toughness was the only trait that displayed a significant decrease with plant diversity, whereas specific leaf area (SLA) and leaf nitrogen were both marginally increased in species mixtures.The magnitude and direction of leaf trait responses to neighbourhood diversity were independent of plant density and phylogenetic diversity, but changes in SLA correlated positively with plant species richness. SLA was also significantly increased in experimental studies, but not in observational studies, while neighbourhoods containing nitrogen-fixers were associated with increased leaf nitrogen and reduced phenolics. When studies on the over-represented species Betula pendula were removed from the analysis, the effect of neighbourhood diversity on leaf toughness became nonsignificant, but phenolics were significantly reduced in diverse neighbourhoods composed of mature trees, and marginally reduced in species mixtures across all studies.Increases in plant neighbourhood diversity are often associated with reductions of herbivory, although in some cases, the reverse occurs, and plants growing in species mixtures are found to suffer greater herbivory than those in monocultures. This study offers a potential explanation for the latter phenomenon, as our results show that leaf trait expression is highly plastic in response to neighbourhood diversity, and in certain cases could lead to increased leaf quality, which in turn could promote greater rates of herbivory. Read the free Plain Language Summary for this article on the Journal blog.

High intraspecific growth variability despite strong evolutionary legacy in an Amazonian forest

Tree growth is key to species performance. However, individual growth variability within species remains underexplored for a whole community, and the role of species evolutionary legacy and local environments remains unquantified. Based on 36 years of diameter records for 7961 trees from 138 species, we assessed individual growth across an Amazonian forest. We related individual growth to taxonomy, topography and neighbourhood, before exploring species growth link to functional traits and distribution along the phylogeny. We found most variation in growth among individuals within species, even though taxonomy explained a third of the variation. Species growth was phylogenetically conserved up to the genus. Traits of roots, wood and leaves were good predictors of growth, suggesting their joint selection during convergent evolutions. Neighbourhood crowding significantly decreased individual growth, although much of inter-individual variation remains unexplained. The high intraspecific variation observed could allow individuals to respond to the heterogeneous environments of Amazonian forests.

Wood-density has no effect on stomatal control of leaf-level water use efficiency in an Amazonian forest

Forest disturbances increase the proportion of fast-growing tree species compared to slow-growing ones. To understand their relative capacity for carbon uptake and their vulnerability to climate change, and to represent those differences in Earth system models, it is necessary to characterise the physiological differences in their leaf-level control of water use efficiency and carbon assimilation. We used wood density as a proxy for the fast-slow growth spectrum and tested the assumption that trees with a low wood density (LWD) have a lower water-use efficiency than trees with a high wood density (HWD). We selected 5 LWD tree species and 5 HWD tree species growing in the same location in an Amazonian tropical forest and measured in situ steady-state gas exchange on top-of-canopy leaves with parallel sampling and measurement of leaf mass area and leaf nitrogen content. We found that LWD species invested more nitrogen in photosynthetic capacity than HWD species, had higher photosynthetic rates and higher stomatal conductance. However, contrary to expectations, we showed that the stomatal control of the balance between transpiration and carbon assimilation was similar in LWD and HWD species and that they had the same dark respiration rates.

Simulation and prediction of changes in tree species composition in subtropical forests of China using a nonlinear difference equation system model

Changes in tree species composition are one of the key aspects of forest succession. In recent decades, significant changes have occurred in the tree species composition of subtropical forests in China, with a decrease in coniferous trees and an increase in broad-leaved trees. This study focuses on Zhejiang Province, located in the subtropical region of China, and utilizes seven inventories from the National Continuous Forest Inventory (NCFI) System spanning 30 years (1989-2019) for modeling and analysis. We categorized tree species into three groups: pine, fir, and broadleaf. We used the proportion of biomass in a sample plot as a measure of the relative abundance of each tree species group. A novel nonlinear difference equation system (NDES) model was proposed. A NDES model was established based on two consecutive survey datasets. A total of six models were established in this study. The results indicated that during the first two re-examination periods (1989-1994, 1994-1999), there was significant fluctuation in the trend of tree species abundance, with no consistent pattern of change. During the latter four re-examination periods (1999-2004, 2004-2009, 2009-2014, 2014-2019), a consistent trend was observed, whereby the abundance of the pine group and the fir group decreased while the abundance of the broad-leaved group increased. Moreover, over time, this pattern became increasingly stable. Although the abundances of the pine group and the fir group have been steadily declining, neither group is expected to become extinct. The NDES model not only facilitates short-term, medium-term, and even long-term predictions but also employs limit analysis to reveal currently obscure changing trends in tree species composition.

Response of soil phosphorus fractions to litter removal in subalpine coniferous forest

Litter plays a crucial role in phosphorus (P) cycling, and its role in forest ecosystems may vary with different treatments and forest types. In this study, we investigated soil P fraction responses to litter removal in different forest types and how forest conversion affects the acquisition pathway of bioavailable P through an in situ controlled litter experiment. The results showed that the soil P content increased with the conversion of primary to secondary forest, which may be mostly related to the differences in nutrients and species richness between the two forest types. In addition, the main source of bioavailable P in primary forests was active organic P, while mineral P was the main bioavailable P source in secondary forests. Moreover, the three-year litter removal treatment significantly decreased the primary forest soil P fraction content while significantly increasing the secondary forest bioavailable P content. The main driving factors of the soil P fraction are also different between the two forest types, with AP activity and SOC as the major factors in the primary forest and pH as the main factor in the secondary forest.

The unimodal intransitivity-fertility relationship is not mediated by demographic trade-offs in a subtropical forest

Intransitive competition has long been acknowledged as a potential mechanism favoring species coexistence. However, its prevalence, variance along environmental gradients, and possible underlying mechanisms (trade-offs) in plant communities (especially in forests) has seldom been examined. A recently developed "reverse-engineering" approach based on Markov Chain allowed us to estimate the competitive transition matrices and competitive intransitivity from observational abundance data. Using this approach, we estimated competitive intransitivity of five dominant species in a subtropical forest and then related it to soil fertility (soil organic matter and soil pH) and demographic trade-offs (growth-survival and stature-recruitment trade-offs). In our forest plot, intransitive competition was common among the dominant species and peaked at the intermediate level of soil organic matter. Neither the growth-survival trade-off nor the stature-recruitment trade-off was positively related to competitive intransitivity. Our study for the first time empirically supported the unimodal intransitivity-fertility relationship in forests, which, however, was not mediated by the two demographic trade-offs in our plot.

Contrasting sap flow characteristics between pioneer and late-successional tree species in secondary tropical montane forests of Eastern Himalaya, India

The interactive role of life-history traits and environmental factors on plant water relations is crucial for understanding the responses of species to climate change, but it remains poorly understood in secondary tropical montane forests (TMFs). In this study, we examined differences in sap flow between the pioneer species Symplocos racemosa and Eurya acuminata, and the late-successional species Castanopsis hystrix that co-occur in a biodiverse Eastern Himalayan secondary broadleaved TMF. The fast-growing pioneers had sap flux densities that were 1.6-2.1 times higher than the late-successional species, and exhibited characteristics of long-lived pioneer species. Significant radial and azimuthal variability in sap flow (V) between species was observed and could be attributed to the life-history trait and the access of the canopy to sunlight. Nocturnal V was 13.8% of the daily total and was attributable to stem recharge during the evening period (18.00-23.00 h) and to endogenous stomatal controls during the pre-dawn period (00.00-05.00 h). The shallow-rooted pioneer species both exhibited midday depression in V that was attributable to photosensitivity and diel moisture stress responses. In contrast, the deep-rooted late-successional species showed unaffected transpiration across the dry season, indicating their access to groundwater. Thus, our results suggest that secondary broadleaved TMFs, with a dominance of shallow-rooted pioneers, are more prone to the negative impacts of drier and warmer winters than primary forests, which are dominated by deep-rooted species. Our study provides an empirical understanding of how life-history traits coupled with microclimate can modulate plant water use in the widely distributed secondary TMFs in Eastern Himalaya, and highlights their vulnerability to warmer winters and reduced winter precipitation due to climate change.

Winds of change. A commentary on 'Demographic trade-offs and functional shifts in a hurricane-impacted tropical forest'

This article comments on:

María Natalia Umaña, Jessica Needham, Jimena Forero-Montaña, Christopher J. Nytch, Nathan G. Swenson, Jill Thompson, María Uriarte and Jess K. Zimmerman. Demographic trade-offs and functional shifts in a hurricane-impacted tropical forest, Annals of Botany, Volume 131, Issue 7, 6 June 2023, Pages 1051–1060, https://doi.org/10.1093/aob/mcad004

Higher local intra- than interspecific variability in water- and carbon-related leaf traits among Neotropical tree species

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Intraspecific variability in leaf water-related traits remains little explored despite its potential importance in the context of increasing drought frequency and severity. Studies comparing intra- and interspecific variability of leaf traits often rely on inappropriate sampling designs that result in non-robust estimates, mainly owing to an excess of the species/individual ratio in community ecology or, on the contrary, to an excess of the individual/species ratio in population ecology.

METHODS

We carried out virtual testing of three strategies to compare intra- and interspecific trait variability. Guided by the results of our simulations, we carried out field sampling. We measured nine traits related to leaf water and carbon acquisition in 100 individuals from ten Neotropical tree species. We also assessed trait variation among leaves within individuals and among measurements within leaves to control for sources of intraspecific trait variability.

KEY RESULTS

The most robust sampling, based on the same number of species and individuals per species, revealed higher intraspecific variability than previously recognized, higher for carbon-related traits (47-92 and 4-33 % of relative and absolute variation, respectively) than for water-related traits (47-60 and 14-44 % of relative and absolute variation, respectively), which remained non-negligible. Nevertheless, part of the intraspecific trait variability was explained by variation of leaves within individuals (12-100 % of relative variation) or measurement variations within leaf (0-19 % of relative variation) and not only by individual ontogenetic stages and environmental conditions.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that robust sampling, based on the same number of species and individuals per species, is needed to explore global or local variation in leaf water- and carbon-related traits within and among tree species, because our study revealed higher intraspecific variation than previously recognized.

Demographic synthesis for global tree species conservation

Conserving the tree species of the world requires syntheses on which tree species are most vulnerable to pressing threats, such as climate change, invasive pests and pathogens, or selective logging. Here, we review the population and forest dynamics models that, when parameterized with data from population studies, forest inventories, or tree rings, have been used for identifying life-history strategies of species and threat-related changes in population demography and dynamics. The available evidence suggests that slow-growing and/or long-lived species are the most vulnerable. However, a lack of comparative, multi-species studies still challenges more precise predictions of the vulnerability of tree species to threats. Improving data coverage for mortality and recruitment, and accounting for interactions among threats, would greatly advance vulnerability assessments for conservation prioritizations of trees worldwide.

Net effects of life-history traits explain persistent differences in abundance among similar species

Life-history traits are promising tools to predict species commonness and rarity because they influence a population's fitness in a given environment. Yet, species with similar traits can have vastly different abundances, challenging the prospect of robust trait-based predictions. Using long-term demographic monitoring, we show that coral populations with similar morphological and life-history traits show persistent (decade-long) differences in abundance. Morphological groups predicted species positions along two, well known life-history axes (the fast-slow continuum and size-specific fecundity). However, integral projection models revealed that density-independent population growth (λ) was more variable within morphological groups, and was consistently higher in dominant species relative to rare species. Within-group λ differences projected large abundance differences among similar species in short timeframes, and were generated by small but compounding variation in growth, survival, and reproduction. Our study shows that easily measured morphological traits predict demographic strategies, yet small life-history differences can accumulate into large differences in λ and abundance among similar species. Quantifying the net effects of multiple traits on population dynamics is therefore essential to anticipate species commonness and rarity.

Multiscale predictors of small tree survival across a heterogeneous tropical landscape

Uncertainties about controls on tree mortality make forest responses to land-use and climate change difficult to predict. We tracked biomass of tree functional groups in tropical forest inventories across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands, and with random forests we ranked 86 potential predictors of small tree survival (young or mature stems 2.5-12.6 cm diameter at breast height). Forests span dry to cloud forests, range in age, geology and past land use and experienced severe drought and storms. When excluding species as a predictor, top predictors are tree crown ratio and height, two to three species traits and stand to regional factors reflecting local disturbance and the system state (widespread recovery, drought, hurricanes). Native species, and species with denser wood, taller maximum height, or medium typical height survive longer, but short trees and species survive hurricanes better. Trees survive longer in older stands and with less disturbed canopies, harsher geoclimates (dry, edaphically dry, e.g., serpentine substrates, and highest-elevation cloud forest), or in intervals removed from hurricanes. Satellite image phenology and bands, even from past decades, are top predictors, being sensitive to vegetation type and disturbance. Covariation between stand-level species traits and geoclimate, disturbance and neighboring species types may explain why most neighbor variables, including introduced vs. native species, had low or no importance, despite univariate correlations with survival. As forests recovered from a hurricane in 1998 and earlier deforestation, small trees of introduced species, which on average have lighter wood, died at twice the rate of natives. After hurricanes in 2017, the total biomass of trees ≥12.7 cm dbh of the introduced species Spathodea campanulata spiked, suggesting that more frequent hurricanes might perpetuate this light-wooded species commonness. If hurricane recovery favors light-wooded species while drought favors others, climate change influences on forest composition and ecosystem services may depend on the frequency and severity of extreme climate events.

Fission in a colonial marine invertebrate signifies unique life history strategies rather than being a demographic trait

Each of the few known life-history strategies (e.g., r/K and parity [semelparity and iteroparity]), is a composite stratagem, signified by co-evolved sets of trade-offs with stochastically distributed variations that do not form novel structured strategies. Tracking the demographic traits of 81 Botryllus schlosseri (a marine urochordate) colonies, from birth to death, we revealed three co-existing novel life-history strategies in this long-standing laboratory-bred population, all are bracketed through colonial fission (termed NF, FA and FB for no fission, fission after and fission before reaching maximal colony size, respectively) and derived from organisms maintained in a benign, highly invariable environment. This environment allows us to capture the strategists’ blueprints and their net performance through 13 traits, each branded by high within-strategy variation. Yet, six traits differed significantly among the strategies and, in two, the FB was notably different. These results frame fissions in colonial organisms not as demographic traits, but as pivotal agents for life-history strategies.

Understanding climate change impacts on biome and plant distributions in the Andes: Challenges and opportunities

AIM

Climate change is expected to impact mountain biodiversity by shifting species ranges and the biomes they shape. The extent and regional variation in these impacts are still poorly understood, particularly in the highly biodiverse Andes. Regional syntheses of climate change impacts on vegetation are pivotal to identify and guide research priorities. Here we review current data, knowledge and uncertainties in past, present and future climate change impacts on vegetation in the Andes. Location: Andes. Taxon: Plants.

METHODS

We (i) conducted a literature review on Andean vegetation responses to past and contemporary climatic change, (ii) analysed future climate projections for different elevations and slope orientations at 19 Andean locations using an ensemble of model outputs from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5, and (iii) calculated changes in the suitable climate envelope area of Andean biomes and compared these results to studies that used species distribution models.

RESULTS

Future climatic changes (2040-2070) are projected to be stronger at high-elevation areas in the tropical Andes (up to 4°C under RCP 8.5), while in the temperate Andes temperature increases are projected to be up to 2°C. Under this worst-case scenario, temperate deciduous forests and the grasslands/steppes from the Central and Southern Andes are predicted to show the greatest losses of suitable climatic space (30% and 17%-23%, respectively). The high vulnerability of these biomes contrasts with the low attention from researchers modelling Andean species distributions. Critical knowledge gaps include a lack of an Andean wide plant checklist, insufficient density of weather stations at high-elevation areas, a lack of high-resolution climatologies that accommodates the Andes' complex topography and climatic processes, insufficient data to model demographic and ecological processes, and low use of palaeo data for distribution modelling.

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

Climate change is likely to profoundly affect the extent and composition of Andean biomes. Temperate Andean biomes in particular are susceptible to substantial area contractions. There are, however, considerable challenges and uncertainties in modelling species and biome responses and a pressing need for a region-wide approach to address knowledge gaps and improve understanding and monitoring of climate change impacts in these globally important biomes.

Forest regeneration within Earth system models: current process representations and ways forward

Earth system models must predict forest responses to global change in order to simulate future global climate, hydrology, and ecosystem dynamics. These models are increasingly adopting vegetation demographic approaches that explicitly represent tree growth, mortality, and recruitment, enabling advances in the projection of forest vulnerability and resilience, as well as evaluation with field data. To date, simulation of regeneration processes has received far less attention than simulation of processes that affect growth and mortality, in spite of their critical role maintaining forest structure, facilitating turnover in forest composition over space and time, enabling recovery from disturbance, and regulating climate-driven range shifts. Our critical review of regeneration process representations within current Earth system vegetation demographic models reveals the need to improve parameter values and algorithms for reproductive allocation, dispersal, seed survival and germination, environmental filtering in the seedling layer, and tree regeneration strategies adapted to wind, fire, and anthropogenic disturbance regimes. These improvements require synthesis of existing data, specific field data-collection protocols, and novel model algorithms compatible with global-scale simulations. Vegetation demographic models offer the opportunity to more fully integrate ecological understanding into Earth system prediction; regeneration processes need to be a critical part of the effort.

Plant hydraulics, stomatal control, and the response of a tropical forest to water stress over multiple temporal scales

Many tropical regions are experiencing an intensification of drought, with increasing severity and frequency. The ecosystem response to these changes is still highly uncertain. On short time scales (from diurnal to seasonal), tropical forests respond to water stress by physiological controls, such as stomatal regulation and phenological adjustment, to cope with increasing atmospheric water demand and reduced water supply. However, the interactions among biological processes and co-varying environmental factors that determine the ecosystem-level fluxes are still unclear. Furthermore, climate variability at longer time scales, such as that generated by ENSO, produces less predictable effects because it depends on a highly stochastic combination of factors that might vary among forests and even between events in the same forest. This study will present some emerging patterns of response to water stress from 5 years of water, carbon, and energy fluxes observed on a seasonal tropical forest in central Panama, including an increase in productivity during the 2015 El Niño. These responses depend on the combination of environmental factors experienced by the forest throughout the seasonal cycle, in particular, increase in solar radiation, stimulating productivity, and increasing vapor pressure deficit (VPD) and decreasing soil moisture, limiting stomata opening. These results suggest a critical role of plant hydraulics in mediating the response to water stress over a broad range of temporal scales (diurnal, intraseasonal, seasonal, and interannual), by acclimating canopy conductance to light and VPD during different soil moisture regimes. A multilayer photosynthesis model coupled with a plant hydraulics scheme can reproduce these complex responses. However, results depend critically on parameters regulating water transport efficiency and the cost of water stress. As these costs have not been properly identified and quantified yet, more empirical research is needed to elucidate physiological mechanisms of hydraulic failure and recover, for example embolism repair and xylem regrowth.

Demographic composition, not demographic diversity, predicts biomass and turnover across temperate and tropical forests

The growth and survival of individual trees determine the physical structure of a forest with important consequences for forest function. However, given the diversity of tree species and forest biomes, quantifying the multitude of demographic strategies within and across forests and the way that they translate into forest structure and function remains a significant challenge. Here, we quantify the demographic rates of 1961 tree species from temperate and tropical forests and evaluate how demographic diversity (DD) and demographic composition (DC) differ across forests, and how these differences in demography relate to species richness, aboveground biomass (AGB), and carbon residence time. We find wide variation in DD and DC across forest plots, patterns that are not explained by species richness or climate variables alone. There is no evidence that DD has an effect on either AGB or carbon residence time. Rather, the DC of forests, specifically the relative abundance of large statured species, predicted both biomass and carbon residence time. Our results demonstrate the distinct DCs of globally distributed forests, reflecting biogeography, recent history, and current plot conditions. Linking the DC of forests to resilience or vulnerability to climate change, will improve the precision and accuracy of predictions of future forest composition, structure, and function.

Regional and local determinants of drought resilience in tropical forests

The increase in severity of droughts associated with greater mortality and reduced vegetation growth is one of the main threats to tropical forests. Drought resilience of tropical forests is affected by multiple biotic and abiotic factors varying at different scales. Identifying those factors can help understanding the resilience to ongoing and future climate change. Altitude leads to high climate variation and to different forest formations, principally moist or dry tropical forests with contrasted vegetation structure. Each tropical forest can show distinct responses to droughts. Locally, topography is also a key factor controlling biotic and abiotic factors related to drought resilience in each forest type. Here, we show that topography has key roles controlling biotic and abiotic factors in each forest type. The most important abiotic factors are soil nutrients, water availability, and microclimate. The most important biotic factors are leaf economic and hydraulic plant traits, and vegetation structure. Both dry tropical forests and ridges (steeper and drier habitats) are more sensitive to droughts than moist tropical forest and valleys (flatter and wetter habitats). The higher mortality in ridges suggests that conservative traits are not sufficient to protect plants from drought in drier steeper habitats. Our synthesis highlights that altitude and topography gradients are essential to understand mechanisms of tropical forest's resilience to future drought events. We described important factors related to drought resilience, however, many important knowledge gaps remain. Filling those gaps will help improve future practices and studies about mitigation capacity, conservation, and restoration of tropical ecosystems.

Climate-Driven Legacies in Simulated Microbial Communities Alter Litter Decomposition Rates

The mechanisms underlying diversity-functioning relationships have been a consistent area of inquiry in biogeochemistry since the 1950s. Though these mechanisms remain unresolved in soil microbiomes, many approaches at varying scales have pointed to the same notion—composition matters. Confronting the methodological challenge arising from the complexity of microbiomes, this study used the model DEMENTpy, a trait-based modeling framework, to explore trait-based drivers of microbiome-dependent litter decomposition. We parameterized DEMENTpy for five sites along a climate gradient in Southern California, United States, and conducted reciprocal transplant simulations analogous to a prior empirical study. The simulations demonstrated climate-dependent legacy effects of microbial communities on plant litter decomposition across the gradient. This result is consistent with the previous empirical study across the same gradient. An analysis of community-level traits further suggests that a 3-way tradeoff among resource acquisition, stress tolerance, and yield strategies influences community assembly. Simulated litter decomposition was predictable with two community traits (indicative of two of the three strategies) plus local environment, regardless of the system state (transient vs. equilibrium). Although more empirical confirmation is still needed, community traits plus local environmental factors (e.g., environment and litter chemistry) may robustly predict litter decomposition across spatial-temporal scales. In conclusion, this study offers a potential trait-based explanation for climate-dependent community effects on litter decomposition with implications for improved understanding of whole-ecosystem functioning across scales.

Representing plant diversity in land models: An evolutionary approach to make "Functional Types" more functional

Plants are critical mediators of terrestrial mass and energy fluxes, and their structural and functional traits have profound impacts on local and global climate, biogeochemistry, biodiversity, and hydrology. Yet, Earth System Models (ESMs), our most powerful tools for predicting the effects of humans on the coupled biosphere-atmosphere system, simplify the incredible diversity of land plants into a handful of coarse categories of "Plant Functional Types" (PFTs) that often fail to capture ecological dynamics such as biome distributions. The inclusion of more realistic functional diversity is a recognized goal for ESMs, yet there is currently no consistent, widely accepted way to add diversity to models, that is, to determine what new PFTs to add and with what data to constrain their parameters. We review approaches to representing plant diversity in ESMs and draw on recent ecological and evolutionary findings to present an evolution-based functional type approach for further disaggregating functional diversity. Specifically, the prevalence of niche conservatism, or the tendency of closely related taxa to retain similar ecological and functional attributes through evolutionary time, reveals that evolutionary relatedness is a powerful framework for summarizing functional similarities and differences among plant types. We advocate that Plant Functional Types based on dominant evolutionary lineages ("Lineage Functional Types") will provide an ecologically defensible, tractable, and scalable framework for representing plant diversity in next-generation ESMs, with the potential to improve parameterization, process representation, and model benchmarking. We highlight how the importance of evolutionary history for plant function can unify the work of disparate fields to improve predictive modeling of the Earth system.

Small and slow is safe: On the drought tolerance of tropical tree species

Understanding how evolutionary history and the coordination between trait trade-off axes shape the drought tolerance of trees is crucial to predict forest dynamics under climate change. Here, we compiled traits related to drought tolerance and the fast-slow and stature-recruitment trade-off axes in 601 tropical woody species to explore their covariations and phylogenetic signals. We found that xylem resistance to embolism (P50) determines the risk of hydraulic failure, while the functional significance of leaf turgor loss point (TLP) relies on its coordination with water use strategies. P50 and TLP exhibit weak phylogenetic signals and substantial variation within genera. TLP is closely associated with the fast-slow trait axis: slow species maintain leaf functioning under higher water stress. P50 is associated with both the fast-slow and stature-recruitment trait axes: slow and small species exhibit more resistant xylem. Lower leaf phosphorus concentration is associated with more resistant xylem, which suggests a (nutrient and drought) stress-tolerance syndrome in the tropics. Overall, our results imply that (1) drought tolerance is under strong selective pressure in tropical forests, and TLP and P50 result from the repeated evolutionary adaptation of closely related taxa, and (2) drought tolerance is coordinated with the ecological strategies governing tropical forest demography. These findings provide a physiological basis to interpret the drought-induced shift toward slow-growing, smaller, denser-wooded trees observed in the tropics, with implications for forest restoration programmes.

Tree recruitment is determined by stand structure and shade tolerance with uncertain role of climate and water relations

Tree regeneration is a key process for long-term forest dynamics, determining changes in species composition and shaping successional trajectories. While tree regeneration is a highly stochastic process, tree regeneration studies often cover narrow environmental gradients only, focusing on specific forest types or species in distinct regions. Thus, the larger-scale effects of temperature, water availability, and stand structure on tree regeneration are poorly understood.We investigated these effects in respect of tree recruitment (in-growth) along wide environmental gradients using forest inventory data from Flanders (Belgium), northwestern Germany, and Switzerland covering more than 40 tree species. We employed generalized linear mixed models to capture the abundance of tree recruitment in response to basal area, stem density, shade casting ability of a forest stand as well as site-specific degree-day sum (temperature), water balance, and plant-available water holding capacity. We grouped tree species to facilitate comparisons between species with different levels of tolerance to shade and drought.Basal area and shade casting ability of the overstory had generally a negative impact on tree recruitment, but the effects differed between levels of shade tolerance of tree recruitment in all study regions. Recruitment rates of very shade-tolerant species were positively affected by shade casting ability. Stem density and summer warmth (degree-day sum) had similar effects on all tree species and successional strategies. Water-related variables revealed a high degree of uncertainty and did not allow for general conclusions. All variables had similar effects independent of the varying diameter thresholds for tree recruitment in the different data sets.Synthesis: Shade tolerance and stand structure are the main drivers of tree recruitment along wide environmental gradients in temperate forests. Higher temperature generally increases tree recruitment rates, but the role of water relations and drought tolerance remains uncertain for tree recruitment on cross-regional scales.

On tree longevity

Large, majestic trees are iconic symbols of great age among living organisms. Published evidence suggests that trees do not die because of genetically programmed senescence in their meristems, but rather are killed by an external agent or a disturbance event. Long tree lifespans are therefore allowed by specific combinations of life history traits within realized niches that support resistance to, or avoidance of, extrinsic mortality. Another requirement for trees to achieve their maximum longevity is either sustained growth over extended periods of time or at least the capacity to increase their growth rates when conditions allow it. The growth plasticity and modularity of trees can then be viewed as an evolutionary advantage that allows them to survive and reproduce for centuries and millennia. As more and more scientific information is systematically collected on tree ages under various ecological settings, it is becoming clear that tree longevity is a key trait for global syntheses of life history strategies, especially in connection with disturbance regimes and their possible future modifications. In addition, we challenge the long-held notion that shade-tolerant, late-successional species have longer lifespans than early-successional species by pointing out that tree species with extreme longevity do not fit this paradigm. Identifying extremely old trees is therefore the groundwork not only for protecting and/or restoring entire landscapes, but also to revisit and update classic ecological theories that shape our understanding of environmental change.

Successional syndromes of saplings in tropical secondary forests emerge from environment-dependent trait-demography relationships

Identifying generalisable processes that underpin population dynamics is crucial for understanding successional patterns. While longitudinal or chronosequence data are powerful tools for doing so, the traditional focus on community-level shifts in taxonomic and functional composition rather than species-level trait-demography relationships has made generalisation difficult. Using joint species distribution models, we demonstrate how three traits-photosynthetic rate, adult stature, and seed mass-moderate recruitment and sapling mortality rates of 46 woody species during secondary succession. We show that the pioneer syndrome emerges from higher photosynthetic rates, shorter adult statures and lighter seeds that facilitate exploitation of light in younger secondary forests, while 'long-lived pioneer' and 'late successional' syndromes are associated with trait values that enable species to persist in the understory or reach the upper canopy in older secondary forests. Our study highlights the context dependency of trait-demography relationships, which drive successional shifts in sapling's species composition in secondary forests.

The function-dominance correlation drives the direction and strength of biodiversity-ecosystem functioning relationships

Community composition is a primary determinant of how biodiversity change influences ecosystem functioning and, therefore, the relationship between biodiversity and ecosystem functioning (BEF). We examine the consequences of community composition across six structurally realistic plant community models. We find that a positive correlation between species' functioning in monoculture versus their dominance in mixture with regard to a specific function (the "function-dominance correlation") generates a positive relationship between realised diversity and ecosystem functioning across species richness treatments. However, because realised diversity declines when few species dominate, a positive function-dominance correlation generates a negative relationship between realised diversity and ecosystem functioning within species richness treatments. Removing seed inflow strengthens the link between the function-dominance correlation and BEF relationships across species richness treatments but weakens it within them. These results suggest that changes in species' identities in a local species pool may more strongly affect ecosystem functioning than changes in species richness.

Landscape forest loss changes sunfleck dynamics in forest fragments of southern Bahia, Brazil

Landscape-scale habitat loss can change the floristic composition of forest fragments, affecting the survival of specific groups of plants, as shade-tolerant and emergent trees. This increasing in tree mortality creates forest canopy gaps of different sizes that ultimately determine the solar radiation available in the forest understorey. We conducted a study aiming to assess how the loss of forest cover at landscape level (i.e. deforestation) affects the sunfleck dynamics, a proxy of light regime in forest understorey. We expected that fragments located in landscapes with less forest cover have a high number of larger canopy gaps and, consequently, long-lasting sunflecks. In each forest fragment, a 100 per 50 m plot was established, and in each plot, we took 10 hemispherical photographs. The images were analysed using the Gap Light Analyzer software. The sunflecks were divided into six temporal classes. We evidenced that landscape-scale deforestation increased the frequency of all sunfleck intervals >8 min, particularly the long-lasting (> 32 min) sunflecks. We propose that the increasing frequency of long-lasting sunflecks reduces suitability of microhabitat to some shade-tolerant species in local fragments, a potential proximal mechanism contributing to compositional shifts of tree assemblages observed in forest fragments within deforested landscapes.

The dimensionality and structure of species trait spaces

Trait-based ecology aims to understand the processes that generate the overarching diversity of organismal traits and their influence on ecosystem functioning. Achieving this goal requires simplifying this complexity in synthetic axes defining a trait space and to cluster species based on their traits while identifying those with unique combinations of traits. However, so far, we know little about the dimensionality, the robustness to trait omission and the structure of these trait spaces. Here, we propose a unified framework and a synthesis across 30 trait datasets representing a broad variety of taxa, ecosystems and spatial scales to show that a common trade-off between trait space quality and operationality appears between three and six dimensions. The robustness to trait omission is generally low but highly variable among datasets. We also highlight invariant scaling relationships, whatever organismal complexity, between the number of clusters, the number of species in the dominant cluster and the number of unique species with total species richness. When species richness increases, the number of unique species saturates, whereas species tend to disproportionately pack in the richest cluster. Based on these results, we propose some rules of thumb to build species trait spaces and estimate subsequent functional diversity indices.

Uniting niche differentiation and dispersal limitation predicts tropical forest succession

Tropical secondary forests are increasingly important for carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation worldwide; yet, we still cannot accurately predict community turnover during secondary succession. We propose that integrating niche differentiation and dispersal limitation will generate an improved theoretical explanation of tropical forest succession. The interaction between seed sources and dispersers regulates seed movement throughout succession, and recent technological advances in animal tracking and molecular analyses enable us to accurately monitor seed movement as never before. We propose a framework to bridge the gap between niche differentiation and dispersal limitation. The Source-Disperser Limitation Framework (SDLF) provides a way to better predict secondary tropical forest succession across gradients of landscape disturbance by integrating seed sources and frugivore behavior.

Unveiling African rainforest composition and vulnerability to global change

Africa is forecasted to experience large and rapid climate change¹ and population growth² during the twenty-first century, which threatens the world's second largest rainforest. Protecting and sustainably managing these African forests requires an increased understanding of their compositional heterogeneity, the environmental drivers of forest composition and their vulnerability to ongoing changes. Here, using a very large dataset of 6 million trees in more than 180,000 field plots, we jointly model the distribution in abundance of the most dominant tree taxa in central Africa, and produce continuous maps of the floristic and functional composition of central African forests. Our results show that the uncertainty in taxon-specific distributions averages out at the community level, and reveal highly deterministic assemblages. We uncover contrasting floristic and functional compositions across climates, soil types and anthropogenic gradients, with functional convergence among types of forest that are floristically dissimilar. Combining these spatial predictions with scenarios of climatic and anthropogenic global change suggests a high vulnerability of the northern and southern forest margins, the Atlantic forests and most forests in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, where both climate and anthropogenic threats are expected to increase sharply by 2085. These results constitute key quantitative benchmarks for scientists and policymakers to shape transnational conservation and management strategies that aim to provide a sustainable future for central African forests.

Topography and vegetation structure mediate drought impacts on the understory of the South American Atlantic Forest

Droughts have increased in frequency, duration, and severity across most of the tropics but their effect on forest communities remain not fully understood. Here we assessed the effects of a severe El Niño-induced drought event on dominant and low abundance understory plant species and the consequent impacts on ecosystem functions in the South American Atlantic Forest. We established 20 permanent plots with contrasting vegetation structure and topography. In each plot, we measured the stem diameter at breast height (DBH) of every understory woody plant (i.e. 1 to 10 cm stem diameter) before and after a severe 4-year drought event to calculate relative growth and mortality rates after drought. Litter biomass, litter nutrient content and soil nutrients, as well as tree canopy cover, were also quantified. High stem density reduced survival to drought for both dominant and low abundance understory woody species. The growth rate of dominant and low abundance species was lower on steeper slopes during the drought. Dominant species were the main contributor of litter biomass production whereas low abundance species were important drivers of litter quality. Overall, our findings suggest that habitats with low tree density and larger trees on flat areas, such as in valleys, can act as refuges for understory plant species during drought periods. These habitats are resource-rich, providing nutrients and water during unfavorable drought periods and might improve forest resilience to climate change in the long term.

Disentangling Environmental Effects on the Tree Species Abundance Distribution and Richness in a Subtropical Forest

As a transitional vegetation type between evergreen broadleaved forest and deciduous broadleaved forest, evergreen-deciduous broadleaved mixed forest is composed of diverse plant species. This distinctive forest is generally distributed in mountainous areas with complex landforms and heterogeneous microenvironments. However, little is known about the roles of environmental conditions in driving the species diversity patterns of this forest. Here, based on a 15-ha plot in central China, we aimed to understand how and to what extent topographical characteristics and soil nutrients regulate the number and relative abundance of tree species in this forest. We measured environmental factors (terrain convexity, slope, soil total nitrogen, and phosphorus concentrations) and species diversity (species abundance distribution and species richness) in 20 m × 20 m subplots. Species abundance distribution was characterized by skewness, Berger-Parker index, and the proportion of singletons. The generalized additive model was used to examine the variations in diversity patterns caused by environmental factors. The structural equation model was used to assess whether and how topographical characteristics regulate species diversity via soil nutrients. We found that soil nutrients had significant negative effects on species richness and positive effects on all metrics of species abundance distribution. Convexity had significant positive effects on species richness and negative effects on all metrics of species abundance distribution, but these effects were mostly mediated by soil nutrients. Slope had significant negative effects on skewness and the Berger-Parker index, and these effects were almost independent of soil nutrients. Soil nutrients and topographical characteristics together accounted for 9.5-17.1% of variations in diversity patterns and, respectively, accounted for 8.9-13.9% and 3.3-10.7% of the variations. We concluded that soil nutrients were more important than topographical factors in regulating species diversity. Increased soil nutrient concentration led to decreased taxonomic diversity and increased species dominance and rarity. Convexity could be a better proxy for soil nutrients than slope. Moreover, these abiotic factors played limited roles in regulating diversity patterns, and it is possible that the observed patterns are also driven by some biotic and abiotic factors not considered here.

Integrating the evidence for a terrestrial carbon sink caused by increasing atmospheric CO2

Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration ([CO₂ ]) is increasing, which increases leaf-scale photosynthesis and intrinsic water-use efficiency. These direct responses have the potential to increase plant growth, vegetation biomass, and soil organic matter; transferring carbon from the atmosphere into terrestrial ecosystems (a carbon sink). A substantial global terrestrial carbon sink would slow the rate of [CO₂ ] increase and thus climate change. However, ecosystem CO₂ responses are complex or confounded by concurrent changes in multiple agents of global change and evidence for a [CO₂ ]-driven terrestrial carbon sink can appear contradictory. Here we synthesize theory and broad, multidisciplinary evidence for the effects of increasing [CO₂ ] (iCO₂ ) on the global terrestrial carbon sink. Evidence suggests a substantial increase in global photosynthesis since pre-industrial times. Established theory, supported by experiments, indicates that iCO₂ is likely responsible for about half of the increase. Global carbon budgeting, atmospheric data, and forest inventories indicate a historical carbon sink, and these apparent iCO₂ responses are high in comparison to experiments and predictions from theory. Plant mortality and soil carbon iCO₂ responses are highly uncertain. In conclusion, a range of evidence supports a positive terrestrial carbon sink in response to iCO₂ , albeit with uncertain magnitude and strong suggestion of a role for additional agents of global change.

Continent-wide tree fecundity driven by indirect climate effects

Indirect climate effects on tree fecundity that come through variation in size and growth (climate-condition interactions) are not currently part of models used to predict future forests. Trends in species abundances predicted from meta-analyses and species distribution models will be misleading if they depend on the conditions of individuals. Here we find from a synthesis of tree species in North America that climate-condition interactions dominate responses through two pathways, i) effects of growth that depend on climate, and ii) effects of climate that depend on tree size. Because tree fecundity first increases and then declines with size, climate change that stimulates growth promotes a shift of small trees to more fecund sizes, but the opposite can be true for large sizes. Change the depresses growth also affects fecundity. We find a biogeographic divide, with these interactions reducing fecundity in the West and increasing it in the East. Continental-scale responses of these forests are thus driven largely by indirect effects, recommending management for climate change that considers multiple demographic rates.

New 3D measurements of large redwood trees for biomass and structure

Large trees are disproportionately important in terms of their above ground biomass (AGB) and carbon storage, as well as their wider impact on ecosystem structure. They are also very hard to measure and so tend to be underrepresented in measurements and models of AGB. We show the first detailed 3D terrestrial laser scanning (TLS) estimates of the volume and AGB of large coastal redwood Sequoia sempervirens trees from three sites in Northern California, representing some of the highest biomass ecosystems on Earth. Our TLS estimates agree to within 2% AGB with a species-specific model based on detailed manual crown mapping of 3D tree structure. However TLS-derived AGB was more than 30% higher compared to widely-used general (non species-specific) allometries. We derive an allometry from TLS that spans a much greater range of tree size than previous models and so is potentially better-suited for use with new Earth Observation data for these exceptionally high biomass areas. We suggest that where possible, TLS and crown mapping should be used to provide complementary, independent 3D structure measurements of these very large trees.

The Net Effect of Functional Traits on Fitness

Generalizing the effect of traits on performance across species may be achievable if traits explain variation in population fitness. However, testing relationships between traits and vital rates to infer effects on fitness can be misleading. Demographic trade-offs can generate variation in vital rates that yield equal population growth rates, thereby obscuring the net effect of traits on fitness. To address this problem, we describe a diversity of approaches to quantify intrinsic growth rates of plant populations, including experiments beyond range boundaries, density-dependent population models built from long-term demographic data, theoretical models, and methods that leverage widely available monitoring data. Linking plant traits directly to intrinsic growth rates is a fundamental step toward rigorous predictions of population dynamics and community assembly.