Loss of terrestrial biodiversity in Australia: Magnitude, causation, and response

A Guide for Developing Demo-Genetic Models to Simulate Genetic Rescue

Genetic rescue is a conservation management strategy that reduces the negative effects of genetic drift and inbreeding in small and isolated populations. However, such populations might already be vulnerable to random fluctuations in growth rates (demographic stochasticity). Therefore, the success of genetic rescue depends not only on the genetic composition of the source and target populations but also on the emergent outcome of interacting demographic processes and other stochastic events. Developing predictive models that account for feedback between demographic and genetic processes ('demo-genetic feedback') is therefore necessary to guide the implementation of genetic rescue to minimize the risk of extinction of threatened populations. Here, we explain how the mutual reinforcement of genetic drift, inbreeding, and demographic stochasticity increases extinction risk in small populations. We then describe how these processes can be modelled by parameterizing underlying mechanisms, including deleterious mutations with partial dominance and demographic rates with variances that increase as abundance declines. We combine our suggestions of model parameterization with a comparison of the relevant capability and flexibility of five open-source programs designed for building genetically explicit, individual-based simulations. Using one of the programs, we provide a heuristic model to demonstrate that simulated genetic rescue can delay extinction of small virtual populations that would otherwise be exposed to greater extinction risk due to demo-genetic feedback. We then use a case study of threatened Australian marsupials to demonstrate that published genetic data can be used in one or all stages of model development and application, including parameterization, calibration, and validation. We highlight that genetic rescue can be simulated with either virtual or empirical sequence variation (or a hybrid approach) and suggest that model-based decision-making should be informed by ranking the sensitivity of predicted probability/time to extinction to variation in model parameters (e.g., translocation size, frequency, source populations) among different genetic-rescue scenarios.

Typology of the ecological impacts of biological invasions

Biological invasions alter ecosystems by disrupting ecological processes that can degrade biodiversity, harm human health, and cause massive economic burdens. Existing frameworks to classify the ecological impacts either miss many types of impact or conflate mechanisms (causes) with the impacts themselves (consequences). We propose a comprehensive typology of 19 types of ecological impact across six levels of ecological organisation. This allows more accurate diagnosis of the cause of impact and can help triage management options to tackle each impact-mechanism combination. We integrated the typology with broad ecological concepts such as energy, mass, and information flow and storage. By highlighting cascading effects across multiple levels, this typology provides a clearer framework for documenting, and communicating invasion impacts, thereby improving management and research.

Eliciting diverse perspectives to prioritize community actions for biodiversity conservation

Communities have a strong role in protecting biodiversity. In addition to participation in restoration, a range of actions in the public or private sphere may support biodiversity. Despite this, there is a lack of clarity about what actions should be prioritized for behavior change campaigns. We developed and applied a method to prioritize community actions for biodiversity conservation that incorporates an expert-based assessment of impact and a community-informed measure of the likelihood of uptake. In stage 1, experts (n = 143) completed a survey that quantified the relative impact of actions based on best-worst scaling of perceived impact. In stage 2, surveyed community members (n = 3200) ranked the likelihood of adopting actions based on the ease or difficulty of performing each action, and the opportunity for change based on the proportion of respondents not yet engaging in each behavior. Experts gave the following actions the highest ranking for impact: voting for the environment (first), participating in restoration in ecological priority areas (second), and purchasing and protecting remnant bushland (third). When considering the disciplinary background and institutional background of experts, voting and participating in restoration activities remained in the upper ranked options. However, there was some divergence between these groups. For example, reducing beef consumption was ranked third by university-based experts but ranked 28th by experts based in state government. Overall, community members ranked the following behaviors as most likely to be adopted: following quarantine laws (first), reducing plastic use (second), and managing pets (third). Top likelihood ranking of actions was minimally affected by community characteristics (nature relatedness, gender, location). Integrating these findings, the action ranked most favorably for impact, likelihood, and opportunity was participating in restoration. Choosing actions for behavior change campaigns requires consideration of the entire social-ecological system-from social factors that enable or constrain adoption to the ecological impact of actions across relevant social and ecological contexts.

Large-scale and long-term wildlife research and monitoring using camera traps: a continental synthesis

Camera traps are widely used in wildlife research and monitoring, so it is imperative to understand their strengths, limitations, and potential for increasing impact. We investigated a decade of use of wildlife cameras (2012-2022) with a case study on Australian terrestrial vertebrates using a multifaceted approach. We (i) synthesised information from a literature review; (ii) conducted an online questionnaire of 132 professionals; (iii) hosted an in-person workshop of 28 leading experts representing academia, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), and government; and (iv) mapped camera trap usage based on all sources. We predicted that the last decade would have shown: (i) exponentially increasing sampling effort, a continuation of camera usage trends up to 2012; (ii) analytics to have shifted from naive presence/absence and capture rates towards hierarchical modelling that accounts for imperfect detection, thereby improving the quality of outputs and inferences on occupancy, abundance, and density; and (iii) broader research scales in terms of multi-species, multi-site and multi-year studies. However, the results showed that the sampling effort has reached a plateau, with publication rates increasing only modestly. Users reported reaching a saturation point in terms of images that could be processed by humans and time for complex analyses and academic writing. There were strong taxonomic and geographic biases towards medium-large mammals (>500 g) in forests along Australia's southeastern coastlines, reflecting proximity to major cities. Regarding analytical choices, bias-prone indices still accounted for ~50% of outputs and this was consistent across user groups. Multi-species, multi-site and multiple-year studies were rare, largely driven by hesitancy around collaboration and data sharing. There is no widely used repository for wildlife camera images and the Atlas of Living Australia (ALA) is the dominant repository for sharing tabular occurrence records. However, the ALA is presence-only and thus is unsuitable for creating detection histories with absences, inhibiting hierarchical modelling. Workshop discussions identified a pressing need for collaboration to enhance the efficiency, quality and scale of research and management outcomes, leading to the proposal of a Wildlife Observatory of Australia (WildObs). To encourage data standards and sharing, WildObs should (i) promote a metadata collection app; (ii) create a tagged image repository to facilitate artificial intelligence/machine learning (AI/ML) computer vision research in this space; (iii) address the image identification bottleneck via the use of AI/ML-powered image-processing platforms; (iv) create data commons for detection histories that are suitable for hierarchical modelling; and (v) provide capacity building and tools for hierarchical modelling. Our review highlights that while Australia's investments in monitoring biodiversity with cameras position it to be a global leader in this context, realising that potential requires a paradigm shift towards best practices for collecting, curating, sharing and analysing 'Big Data'. Our findings and framework have broad applicability outside Australia to enhance camera usage to meet conservation and management objectives ranging from local to global scales. This review articulates a country/continental observatory approach that is also suitable for international collaborative wildlife research networks.

The estimated cost of preventing extinction and progressing recovery for Australia's priority threatened species

The global extinction crisis is intensifying rapidly, driven by habitat loss, overexploitation, climate change, invasive species, and disease. This unprecedented loss of species not only threatens ecological integrity but also undermines ecosystem services vital for human survival. In response, many countries have set ambitious conservation targets such as halting species extinctions, yet the necessary financial commitments to achieve this are rarely prescribed. Estimating costs can be achieved using an ensemble of spatially variable species-specific cost models for threat abatement activities. We employ this method to provide a cost assessment to halt extinctions for Australia's priority terrestrial and freshwater species. We show that it will cost ~AUD15.6 billion/year for 30 y to halt extinctions for these 99 priority species (comparable to 1% of Australia's GDP). The more ambitious objectives to move priority species down one threat category (~AUD103.7 billion/year) or remove from the threatened species list entirely (~AUD157.7 billion/year) would require considerably more investment. Regardless of what is spent, we found that 16 (16%) priority species could not be removed from the threatened species list due to extensive historical declines and pervasive, ongoing, unmanageable threats, such as climate change. But implementing these efforts could ensure conservation benefits for over 43% of all nationally listed nonmarine threatened species. Adequate funding is crucial for meeting government commitments and requires both government leadership and private sector investment.

Composition and Biodiversity of Culturable Endophytic Fungi in the Roots of Alpine Medicinal Plants in Xinjiang, China

(1) Background: Endophytic fungi play an important role in plant growth and stress resistance. The presence of a special fungal taxon such as the dark septate endophytic (DSE) fungi in alpine environments is particularly important for plant resistance to environmental stresses. However, the composition of root endophytic fungi in different environments and between different host plants has not been well studied. (2) Results: A total of 408 culturable endophytic fungi were isolated from the roots of Saussurea involucrata and Rhodiola crenulata which were collected in 5 plots from the Tianshan and Karakoram Mountains of the Xinjiang region, belonging to 91 species, 54 genera, 31 families, and 3 phyla based on the morphological characteristics and molecular sequence. Among them, DSE fungi were the dominant group, accounting for 52.94%, and Leptodontidium orchidicola was the dominant species. In addition, we also compared the composition and diversity of root endophytic fungi from different plants and different sites, with emphasis on special fungal taxa such as DSE. (3) Conclusions: The composition and diversity of cultural endophytic fungi are significantly different in the two alpine medicinal plant species and across various locations. Some fungi showed the preferences of the host or environment. The endophytic fungal resources, especially DSE, were very rich in the two alpine medicinal plants, indicating that these fungi may play a crucial role in the ecological adaptation of host plants in harsh environments.

No More Extinctions: Recovering Australia's Biodiversity

Most conservation programs and laws aim to prevent extinction. However, there is a gulf between such aspirations and the current reality of escalating biodiversity loss. This review focuses on efforts to prevent extinctions in Australia, but much of this consideration is likely to apply globally. As context, we consider the reasons for trying to prevent extinction, review Australia's extinction record, and note that there are likely to be many more extinctions than formally recognized. We describe recent cases where conservation actions have prevented extinction. We note that extinction is a pathway rather than solely an endpoint, and many decisions made or not made on that pathway can determine the fate of species. We conclude that all looming extinctions can and should be prevented. This will require transformational change in legislation, increased resourcing, more consideration of poorly known species, and increased societal recognition of the need to be responsible for the care of country.

This is the way the world ends; not with a bang but a whimper: Estimating the number and ongoing rate of extinctions of Australian non-marine invertebrates

Biodiversity is in rapid decline, but the extent of loss is not well resolved for poorly known groups. We estimate the number of extinctions for Australian non-marine invertebrates since the European colonisation of the continent. Our analyses use a range of approaches, incorporate stated uncertainties and recognise explicit caveats. We use plausible bounds for the number of species, two approaches for estimating extinction rate, and Monte Carlo simulations to select combinations of projected distributions from these variables. We conclude that 9,111 (plausible bounds of 1,465 to 56,828) Australian species have become extinct over this 236-year period. These estimates dwarf the number of formally recognised extinctions of Australian invertebrates (10 species) and of the single invertebrate species listed as extinct under Australian legislation. We predict that 39-148 species will become extinct in 2024. This is inconsistent with a recent pledge by the Australian government to prevent all extinctions. This high rate of loss is largely a consequence of pervasive taxonomic biases in community concern and conservation investment. Those characteristics also make it challenging to reduce that rate of loss, as there is uncertainty about which invertebrate species are at the most risk. We outline conservation responses to reduce the likelihood of further extinctions.

Biodiversity impacts of the 2019-2020 Australian megafires

With large wildfires becoming more frequent1,2, we must rapidly learn how megafires impact biodiversity to prioritize mitigation and improve policy. A key challenge is to discover how interactions among fire-regime components, drought and land tenure shape wildfire impacts. The globally unprecedented3,4 2019-2020 Australian megafires burnt more than 10 million hectares5, prompting major investment in biodiversity monitoring. Collated data include responses of more than 2,000 taxa, providing an unparalleled opportunity to quantify how megafires affect biodiversity. We reveal that the largest effects on plants and animals were in areas with frequent or recent past fires and within extensively burnt areas. Areas burnt at high severity, outside protected areas or under extreme drought also had larger effects. The effects included declines and increases after fire, with the largest responses in rainforests and by mammals. Our results implicate species interactions, dispersal and extent of in situ survival as mechanisms underlying fire responses. Building wildfire resilience into these ecosystems depends on reducing fire recurrence, including with rapid wildfire suppression in areas frequently burnt. Defending wet ecosystems, expanding protected areas and considering localized drought could also contribute. While these countermeasures can help mitigate the impacts of more frequent megafires, reversing anthropogenic climate change remains the urgent broad-scale solution.

Future climate warming threatens coral reef function on World Heritage reefs

Climate change is the most significant threat to natural World Heritage (WH) sites, especially in the oceans. Warming has devastated marine faunas, including reef corals, kelp, and seagrass. Here, we project future declines in species and ecosystem functions across Australia's four WH coral reef regions. Model simulations estimating species-level abundances and probabilities of ecological persistence were combined with trait space reconstructions at "present," 2050 (+1.5°C of warming), and 2100 (+2°C) to explore biogeographical overlaps and identify key functional differences and forecast changes in function through time. Future climates varied by region, with Shark Bay projected to warm the most (>1.29°C), followed by Lord Howe, when standardized to marine park size. By 2050, ~40% of the Great Barrier Reef will exceed critical thresholds set by the warmest summer month (mean monthly maximum [MMM]), triggering mortality. Functional diversity was greatest at Ningaloo. At +1.5°C of warming, species and regions varied drastically in their functional responses, declined 20.2% in species richness (~70 extinctions) and lost functions across all reefs. At +2°C, models predicted a complete collapse of functions, consistent with IPCC forecasts. This variability suggests a bespoke management approach is needed for each region and is critical for understanding WH vulnerability to climate change, identifying thresholds, and quantifying uncertainty of impacts. This knowledge will aid in focusing management, policy and conservation actions to direct resources, rapid action, and set biodiversity targets for these reefs of global priority. As reefs reassemble into novel or different configurations, determining the winners and losers of functional space will be critical for meeting global landmark biodiversity goals.

Sustained predation pressure may prevent the loss of anti-predator traits from havened populations

Conservation havens free of invasive predators are increasingly relied upon for fauna conservation, although havened populations can lose anti-predator traits, likely making them less suitable for life 'beyond the fence'. Sustaining low levels of mammalian predator pressure inside havens may prevent the loss of anti-predator traits from havened populations. We opportunistically compared behavioural and morphological anti-predator traits between four woylie (Bettongia penicillata ogilbyi) populations- one haven isolated from all mammalian predators, one haven containing a native mammalian predator (chuditch; Dasyurus geoffroii), and their respective non-havened counterparts (each containing both chuditch and invasive predators). Havened woylies existing without mammalian predators were smaller (shorter hindfeet, smaller body weight) and less reactive (consumed more food from fox-treated and control feeding stations, less agitated during human handling) than a non-havened reference population. However, in the haven containing chuditch, we found no difference in behaviour or morphology compared to the adjacent non-havened population. Across populations, anti-predator responses tended to appear stronger at sites with higher predator activity, suggestive of an adaptive response across a gradient of predation pressure. Our findings suggest that maintaining mammalian predation pressure in conservation havens could be effective for preventing or slowing the loss of anti-predator traits from these populations.

Wildlife Conservation on Private Land: A Social-Ecological Systems Study

As human activity accelerates the global crisis facing wildlife populations, private land conservation provides an example of wildlife management challenges in social-ecological systems. This study reports on the research phase of 'WildTracker' - a co-created citizen science project, involving 160 landholders across three Tasmanian regions. This was a transdisciplinary collaboration between an environmental organisation, university researchers, and local landholders. Focusing on mammal and bird species, the project integrated diverse data types and technologies: social surveys, quantitative ecology, motion sensor cameras, acoustic recorders, and advanced machine-learning analytics. An iterative analytical methodology encompassed Pearson and point-biserial correlation for interrelationships, Non-Metric Multidimensional Scaling (NMDS) for clustering, and Random Forest machine learning for variable importance and prediction. Taken together, these analyses revealed complex relationships between wildlife populations and a suite of ecological, socio-economic, and land management variables. Both site-scale habitat characteristics and landscape-scale vegetation patterns were useful predictors of mammal and bird activity, but these relationships were different for mammals and birds. Four focal mammal species showed variation in their response to ecological and land management drivers. Unexpectedly, threatened species, such as the eastern quoll (Dasyurus viverrinus), favoured locations where habitat was substantially modified by human activities. The research provides actionable insights for landowners, and highlights the importance of 'messy,' ecologically heterogeneous, mixed agricultural landscapes for wildlife conservation. The identification of thresholds in habitat fragmentation reinforced the importance of collaboration across private landscapes. Participatory research models such as WildTracker can complement efforts to address the wicked problem of wildlife conservation in the Anthropocene.

How do invasive predators and their native prey respond to prescribed fire?

Fire shapes animal communities by altering resource availability and species interactions, including between predators and prey. In Australia, there is particular concern that two highly damaging invasive predators, the feral cat (Felis catus) and European red fox (Vulpes vulpes), increase their activity in recently burnt areas and exert greater predation pressure on the native prey due to their increased exposure. We tested how prescribed fire occurrence and extent, along with fire history, vegetation, topography, and distance to anthropogenic features (towns and farms), affected the activity (detection frequency) of cats, foxes, and the native mammal community in south-eastern Australia. We used camera traps to quantify mammal activity before and after a prescribed burn and statistically tested how the fire interacted with these habitat variables to affect mammal activity. We found little evidence that the prescribed fire influenced the activity of cats and foxes and no evidence of an effect on kangaroo or small mammal (<800 g) activity. Medium-sized mammals (800-2000 g) were negatively associated with prescribed fire extent, suggesting that prescribed fire has a negative impact on these species in the short term. The lack of a clear activity increase from cats and foxes is likely a positive outcome from a fire management perspective. However, we highlight that their response is likely dependent upon factors like fire size, severity, and prey availability. Future experiments should incorporate GPS-trackers to record fine-scale movements of cats and foxes in temperate ecosystems immediately before and after prescribed fire to best inform management within protected areas.

Pollination crisis Down-Under: Has Australasia dodged the bullet?

Since mid-1990s, concerns have increased about a human-induced "pollination crisis." Threats have been identified to animals that act as plant pollinators, plants pollinated by these animals, and consequently human well-being. Threatening processes include loss of natural habitat, climate change, pesticide use, pathogen spread, and introduced species. However, concern has mostly been during last 10-15 years and from Europe and North America, with Australasia, known as Down-Under, receiving little attention. So perhaps Australasia has "dodged the bullet"? We systematically reviewed the published literature relating to the "pollination crisis" via Web of Science, focusing on issues amenable to this approach. Across these issues, we found a steep increase in publications over the last few decades and a major geographic bias towards Europe and North America, with relatively little attention in Australasia. While publications from Australasia are underrepresented, factors responsible elsewhere for causing the "pollination crisis" commonly occur in Australasia, so this lack of coverage probably reflects a lack of awareness rather than the absence of a problem. In other words, Australasia has not "dodged the bullet" and should take immediate action to address and mitigate its own "pollination crisis." Sensible steps would include increased taxonomic work on suspected plant pollinators, protection for pollinator populations threatened with extinction, establishing long-term monitoring of plant-pollinator relationships, incorporating pollination into sustainable agriculture, restricting the use of various pesticides, adopting an Integrated Pest and Pollinator Management approach, and developing partnerships with First Nations peoples for research, conservation and management of plants and their pollinators. Appropriate Government policy, funding and regulation could help.