The positive impact of conservation action

Protected areas as hotspots of wildfire activity in fire-prone Temperate and Mediterranean biomes

The European Union has recently passed the Nature Restoration Law which, among others, seeks to increase the cover of forest reserves protected for biodiversity and, globally, the Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework similarly seeks to expand protected areas. Here we test whether a trade-off exists between protected areas expansion and fire activity, leading to a higher exposure to fire for the population in protected areas, because they often harbor more biomass and occur in remote areas. We analyzed forest fires affecting 14,892,174 ha, and intersecting 10,999 protected areas, across fire-prone European Temperate and Mediterranean forest biomes, and in similar ecosystems within California, Chile and Australia. Protected areas were being disproportionally affected by fire within most Temperate biomes, and fire severity was 20 % higher within protected areas also in Mediterranean biomes. Population in the periphery of forest areas was up to 16 times more likely to be exposed to large wildfires when their environment was within, or near, protected areas. Differences in manageable factors such as fuel loads and road density were primary drivers of the divergence in burned area across protection status, with abiotic factors playing also significant roles. The importance of fuel loads indicates that current plans for expanding strictly protected areas, where no human intervention is allowed, may be particularly problematic from a fire perspective. Wildfire prevention and mitigation must be central goals in the development of conservation/restoration programs to diminish population exposure and fire severity.

Habitat dynamics of flagship species for conservation prioritization in southern Europe

Biodiversity loss is accelerating due to human actions, and decision-making for conservation needs to be streamlined. Ex situ biodiversity modeling and monitoring based on satellite time-series data could be an affordable and cost-efficient tool for improving the prioritization of conservation areas. We developed a set of dynamic indicators for conservation prioritization based on a habitat suitability index (HSI) trend analysis of 6 flagship species (two vascular plants, bird, amphibian, reptile, and mammal) over 19 years (2001-2019) in Andalucía (southern Spain). The HSI models were derived from ecological niche models (MaxEnt) and satellite time-series data (MODIS) as predictors. Based on the annual HSI models of all species and using the spatial conservation prioritization tool Marxan, we derived interannual dynamic indicators of habitat quality for conservation prioritization. Overall, models showed a generalized habitat regression. The best predictors of habitat quality were related to vegetation composition and structure (land cover), climate (land surface temperature), and energy balance (evapotranspiration), matching with the ecology of climate (such as Abies pinsapo) or vegetation-dependent (such as Alytes dickhilleni) species. Marxan identified interannual dynamics for the priority areas outside and inside protected areas. Interannual variation in habitat quality led to shifting conservation priorities across Andalucia from 2001 to 2019. Only 10.5% of the region and 20% of protected areas showed high spatial stability. Stable zones appeared both inside and outside protected areas. The south and northeast consistently exhibited high-priority regions. The legacy indicator highlighted areas of historical importance that have since declined in importance. New high-value areas emerged in the south. Static and dynamic approaches to conservation planning differed significantly. Many areas prioritized in 2019 alone ranked lower when long-term trends were considered. Our multiscale method underscores the need to integrate temporal dynamics into effective conservation strategies to achieve long-term conservation objectives in an efficient way.

Temporal Dynamics of Genetic Diversity in Protected and Unprotected Wild Rice (Oryza rufipogon) Populations: Implications for Conservation

Genetic diversity is vital for population survival, yet there is a paucity of studies focusing on the effectiveness of establishing protected areas for maintaining the population genetic diversity of threatened plant species. To evaluate the effectiveness of in situ conservation measures, we used simple sequence repeats (SSR) and single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNP) markers to monitor temporal dynamics in genetic diversity of the threatened wild rice Oryza rufipogon in both protected and unprotected populations in China between 2001 and 2020. Unprotected populations tended to have decreased census population sizes (Nc) compared to protected populations, although they both showed a reduction in effective population size (Ne). While allele diversity and expected heterozygosity remained stable, several populations, especially those without protection, exhibited a significant decrease in observed heterozygosity (Ho) and an increase in inbreeding (FIS). The level of genetic differentiation between populations did not change over time, but the number of private alleles increased and Ne varied in several populations, indicating the effects of genetic drift. Indicators for temporal trends in Ho, FIS, and Ne revealed that both protected and unprotected populations are facing warnings of declining genetic diversity, although some protected populations remain resilient, reflecting the genetic lag behind Nc change. Overall, these findings highlight the effectiveness of in situ conservation efforts in maintaining population size and genetic diversity, yet we also show the necessity of lasting population dynamics monitoring, using different genetic indicators.

Potential construction area identification of the transboundary national park bridging ecology, society and economics: A case study of Mount Everest region

In biodiverse border regions, establishing transboundary national parks is essential for conserving ecological integrity, promoting sustainable development, and enhancing cross-border cooperation. This study aims to develop an integrated hierarchical identification model that bridges ecology, society, and economics to support effective site selection. We introduce a novel model that comprehensively evaluates potential construction areas based on three criteria-irreplaceability, connectivity, and cost-effectiveness. The model categorizes the landscape into three priority zones: core ecological areas, connective ecological areas, and peripheral radiation areas. Key indicators such as ecosystem service value, landscape ecological risk, and human activity intensity are employed to assess these zones. Application of the model to the Mount Everest region identified a total potential area of 63,824 km2 for the transboundary national park. Within this area, core ecological areas account for 22.54 %, connective ecological areas for 21.35 %, and peripheral radiation areas for 56.12 %. Significantly, disparities in ecosystem service value, ecological risk, and human activity intensity exist across the China-Nepal border, with indicator variations closely aligned with the corresponding priority zones. The findings underscore the need for China and Nepal to consider regional and national differences when planning future park construction. Tailored zonal management and a dynamic cooperative mechanism are key to sustainable and effective transboundary park development.

The Eastern Fox Squirrel (Sciurus niger) exhibits minimal patterns of phylogeography across native and introduced sites

Introduced species are one of the leading causes of declining global biodiversity and result in many billions of dollars of losses to the bioeconomy worldwide. Introduced species have become increasingly common due to globalization and climate change, and population genetics is a useful tool for the management of such species. The Eastern Fox Squirrel (Sciurus niger) is a highly successful invader that was introduced to many states in western North America throughout the 20th century. We used low-pass whole genome sequencing to evaluate phylogeographic structure across native and introduced ranges of this species and identify the putative number and geographic sources of introductions in California and Utah. We found minimal patterns of phylogeographic structure, consistent with recent range and population expansion since the Last Glacial Maximum. Additionally, we found evidence for multiple mitochondrial haplotypes in California and only 1 haplotype in Utah, which suggests that fox squirrels in California were sourced from multiple introduction events while those in Utah were likely sourced from a single event. Genomic resources generated in this study will be useful for future conservation efforts in this species and will assist with the ongoing management of its introductions across western North America.

HEALTH ASSESSMENT OF BLUE-FOOTED BOOBIES (SULA NEBOUXII EXCISA) DETERMINED BY HEMATOLOGY, BIOCHEMISTRY, BLOOD GASES, AND PHYSICAL EXAMINATION IN THE GALÁPAGOS ISLANDS

The Galápagos blue-footed booby (Sula nebouxii excisa) is a sulid species endemic to the Galápagos archipelago. Here we present physical examination, breeding status, hematology, and blood chemistry results from 60 Galápagos blue-footed boobies that were captured by hand from their nesting site on North Seymour Island in June 2017 and July 2022. A portable blood analyzer (iSTAT) was used to obtain values in the field for hematocrit, hemoglobin, sodium, potassium, chloride, ionized calcium, total CO2, glucose, blood urea nitrogen, creatinine, and anion gap for each bird. Blood lactate, total solids, packed cell volume, and blood smears were also assessed. A white blood cell differential was performed in 2017. The breeding status of each bird and the number of chicks in the nests were also recorded. Total CO2, blood urea nitrogen, ionized calcium, potassium, anion gap, hematocrit, and hemoglobin were all higher in 2022 than in 2017. There were also more nests with chicks in 2022 than in 2017. Lactate, ionized calcium, hematocrit, and hemoglobin were all higher in females than in males, and blood urea nitrogen was higher in males than in females. These results provide a reference to the baseline health parameters in a free-living population of Galápagos blue-footed boobies that can be used to monitor the health status of this species.

Past conservation efforts reveal which actions lead to positive outcomes for species

Understanding the consequences of past conservation efforts is essential to inform the means of maintaining and restoring species. Data from the IUCN Red List for 67,217 animal species were reviewed and analyzed to determine (i) which conservation actions have been implemented for different species, (ii) which types of species have improved in status and (iii) which actions are likely to have driven the improvements. At least 51.8% (34,847) of assessed species have actions reported, mostly comprising protected areas (82.7%). Proportionately more actions were reported for tetrapods and warm-water reef-building corals, and fewer for fish, dragonflies and damselflies and crustaceans. Species at greater risk of extinction have a wider range of species-targeted actions reported compared with less threatened species, reflecting differences in documentation and conservation efforts. Six times more species have deteriorated than improved in status, as reflected in their IUCN Red List category. Almost all species that improved have conservation actions in place, and typically were previously at high risk of extinction, have smaller ranges and were less likely to be documented as threatened by hunting and habitat loss or degradation. Improvements in status were driven by a wide range of actions, especially reintroductions; for amphibians and birds, area management was also important. While conservation interventions have reduced the extinction risk of some of the most threatened species, in very few cases has full recovery been achieved. Scaling up the extent and intensity of conservation interventions, particularly landscape-scale actions that benefit broadly distributed species, is urgently needed to assist the recovery of biodiversity.

Identifying Major Factors for Success and Failure of Conservation Programs in Europe

In Europe, various conservation programs adopted to maintain or restore biodiversity have experienced differing levels of success. However, a synthesis about major factors for success of biodiversity-related conservation programs across ecosystems and national boundaries, such as incentives, subsidies, enforcement, participation, or spatial context, is missing. Using a balanced scorecard survey among experts, we analyzed and compared factors contributing to success or failure of three different conservation programs: two government programs (Natura 2000 and the ecological measures of the Water Framework Directive) and one conservation program of a non-governmental organization (NGO; Rewilding Europe), all focusing on habitat and species conservation. The experts perceived the NGO program as more successful in achieving biodiversity-related aims than governmental conservation legislation. Among the factors perceived to influence the success of biodiversity conservation, several stood out: Biodiversity-damaging subsidies, external economic interests competing with conservation goals or policies conflicting with biodiversity conservation were recognized as major factors for the lack of conservation success. Outreach to raise societal interest and awareness as well as stakeholder involvement were perceived as closely related to the success of programs. Our expert survey demonstrated that external factors from economy and policy often hinder success of conservation programs, while societal and environmental factors rather contribute to it. This study implies that conservation programs should be designed to be as inclusive as possible and provides a basis for developing a standardized methodology that explicitly considers indirect drivers from areas such as economy, policy and society.

Principles for introducing new genes and species for conservation

Introducing new genes and new species into ecosystems where they have not previously existed presents opportunities and complex, multivalue decisions for conservation biologists and the public. Both synthetic biology and conservation introductions offer potential benefits, such as avoiding extinctions and restoring ecological function, but also carry risks of unintended ecological consequences and raise social and moral concerns. Although the conservation community has attempted to establish guidelines for each new tool, there is a need for comprehensive principles that will enable conservation managers to navigate emerging technologies. Here, we combine biological, legal, social, cultural, and ethical considerations into an inclusive set of principles designed to facilitate the efforts of managers facing high-consequence conservation decisions by clarifying the stakes of inaction and action, along with the use of decision frameworks to integrate multiple considerations.

Predicting the global economic costs of biological invasions by tetrapods

Globalisation has accelerated rates of biological invasions worldwide, leading to widespread environmental perturbations that often translate into rapidly expanding socio-economic costs. Although such monetary costs can be estimated from the observed effects of invasions, the pathways that lead invasive species to become economically impactful remain poorly understood. Here, we implement the first global-scale test of the hypothesis that adaptive traits that influence demographic resilience predict economic costs, using invasive terrestrial vertebrates as models given their well-catalogued impacts and characteristics. Our results reveal that total global costs of invasive tetrapods are conservatively in the tens of billions of dollars, with the vast majority due to damage costs from invasive mammals. These monetary impacts are predicted by longevity, female maturation age, diet and invasion pathway traits, although the directionality in the association between impacts and these drivers varied across classes. Alarmingly, costs remain unknown for >90 % of recorded established alien tetrapods worldwide, and across the majority of invaded countries. These huge socio-economic costs demonstrate the necessity of mitigating tetrapod invasions and filling knowledge gaps. Effective identification of traits predictive of costs among and within these groups can facilitate the prioritisation of resources to efficiently target the most damaging existing and emerging invasive tetrapod species.

Environmental variability across space and time drives the recolonization pattern of a historically persecuted large carnivore

Wildlife populations are not static. Intrinsic and extrinsic factors affect individuals, which lead to spatiotemporal variation in population density and range. Yet, dynamics in density and their drivers are rarely documented, due in part to the inherent difficulty of studying long-term population-level phenomena at ecologically meaningful scales. We studied the spatiotemporal density dynamics in a recolonizing large carnivore population, the wolverine Gulo gulo, across the Scandinavian Peninsula over nine years. We fitted open-population spatial capture-recapture models to noninvasive genetic sampling data collected across Norway and Sweden to estimate annual density surfaces and their drivers. This approach allowed us to model sex-specific changes in wolverine density and the effect of landscape-level environmental determinants over time. Our results revealed that, as wolverines successfully recolonized many parts of their historical range in Scandinavia, the relationship with spatial determinants of density has changed over time. We also found support for sex-specific responses of the Scandinavian wolverine to the environmental determinants of density and differences in the temporal dynamics of their relationships, indicating disproportionate recolonization ability and anthropogenic pressures. We observed significant changes in the relationship of female wolverine density with several determinants during the study period, suggesting still ongoing expansion of female wolverines whereas males might have already reached the range limits. These findings show that the Scandinavian wolverine population is still recovering from centuries of persecution and severe range contraction. Our study sheds light on the dynamics and challenges of recolonizing large carnivores in human-dominated landscapes across time and space.

Global meta-analysis shows action is needed to halt genetic diversity loss

Mitigating loss of genetic diversity is a major global biodiversity challenge1-4. To meet recent international commitments to maintain genetic diversity within species5,6, we need to understand relationships between threats, conservation management and genetic diversity change. Here we conduct a global analysis of genetic diversity change via meta-analysis of all available temporal measures of genetic diversity from more than three decades of research. We show that within-population genetic diversity is being lost over timescales likely to have been impacted by human activities, and that some conservation actions may mitigate this loss. Our dataset includes 628 species (animals, plants, fungi and chromists) across all terrestrial and most marine realms on Earth. Threats impacted two-thirds of the populations that we analysed, and less than half of the populations analysed received conservation management. Genetic diversity loss occurs globally and is a realistic prediction for many species, especially birds and mammals, in the face of threats such as land use change, disease, abiotic natural phenomena and harvesting or harassment. Conservation strategies designed to improve environmental conditions, increase population growth rates and introduce new individuals (for example, restoring connectivity or performing translocations) may maintain or even increase genetic diversity. Our findings underscore the urgent need for active, genetically informed conservation interventions to halt genetic diversity loss.

Comparing voluntary and government-mandated management measures for meeting sustainable fishing targets

Management of natural resources and environmental systems has often involved top-down approaches in which government agencies set and enforce regulations on extractive activities. More recently, market-driven approaches were introduced to incentivise producers to voluntarily engage in practices that align with management objectives and support regulations. For the first time, we compare government and voluntary approaches within fisheries management systems and quantify their relative influences on the sustainability status of fish populations. Voluntary measures include eco-certification against the Marine Stewardship Council's (MSC) Fisheries Standard and Fishery Improvement Projects (FIP). Government-mandated measures are implemented for individual populations, or else at national and international levels. Using a hierarchical time series analysis, we treated each of these measures as independent interventions potentially affecting trends in fishing pressure and biomass of nearly 300 populations. Supporting earlier findings, we confirmed a strong effect of government rebuilding plans in sharply reducing fishing pressure and allowing population biomass to recover. Other government-mandated measures further contributed to reducing fishing pressure. While simultaneously accounting for government measures, we found that biomass increases were associated with stronger incentives generated by voluntary measures. This influence was attributed to the opening of conditions of certification or suspension of certification for MSC fisheries, while no clear influence was attributed to FIPs. MSC certification was rarely observed in the absence of strong government-mandated measures, however, suggesting that sustainability-related incentives associated with voluntary measures can promote more desirable environmental outcomes for target stocks if used in parallel with more conventional approaches to management of natural resources.

Domestication During Restoration: Unintentional Selection During Eight Generations of Wild Seed Propagation Reduces Herkogamy, Dichogamy and Heterozygosity in Clarkia pulchella

Seed production on native seed farms has increased to meet the rising demand for plant material for restoration. Although these propagation efforts are necessary for restoration, cultivating wild populations may also result in unintentional selection and elicit evolutionary changes that mimic crop domestication, essentially turning these efforts into artificial domestication experiments. Here, we investigated whether phenotypic and genomic changes associated with domestication occurred in the wildflower Clarkia pulchella Pursh (Onagraceae) by comparing the wild source populations to the farmed population after eight generations of cultivation. At the phenotypic level, the farmed population shifted towards a floral morphology associated with self-pollination, with a significant decrease in both dichogamy and herkogamy. At the genomic level, > 6500 SNPs revealed that mean expected heterozygosity of the farmed population was significantly lower than the wild populations, despite the fact that the farmed population originated from a pool of multiple wild populations. Both the shift towards a selfing phenotype and the loss of diversity are expected consequences of domestication, although the phenotypic shifts in particular occurred much more rapidly than has been observed for other domestication traits. We discuss these results in the context of plant domestication and the implications for retaining the genetic integrity of wild populations during the process of seed production for restoration.

Collaborative management partnerships strongly decreased deforestation in the most at-risk protected areas in Africa since 2000

Collaborative management partnerships (CMPs) between state wildlife authorities and nonprofit conservation organizations to manage protected areas (PAs) have been used increasingly across Sub-Saharan Africa since the 2000s. They aim to attract funding, build capacity, and increase the environmental effectiveness of PAs. Our study documents the rise of CMPs, examines their current extent, and measures their effectiveness in protecting habitats. We combine statistical matching and Before-After-Control-Intervention regressions to quantify the impact of CMPs, using tree cover loss as a proxy. We identify 127 CMPs located in 16 countries. CMPs are more often located in remote PAs, with habitats that are least threatened by human activity. Our results indicate that, on average, each year in a CMP results in an annual decrease in tree cover loss of about 55% compared to PAs without CMPs. Where initial anthropogenic pressure was low, we measure no effect. Where it was high, we see a 66% decrease in tree cover loss. This highly heterogeneous effect illustrates the importance of moving beyond average effect size when assessing conservation interventions, as well as the need for policy makers to invest public funds to protect the areas the most at risk.

Soil Microbiome Inoculation for Resilient and Multifunctional New Forests in Post-Agricultural Landscapes

Afforestation is increasingly recognized as a critical strategy to restore ecosystems and enhance biodiversity on post-agricultural landscapes. However, agricultural legacies, such as altered soil structure, nutrient imbalances, and depleted microbial diversity, can slow down forest establishment or cause ecosystems to deviate from expected successional trajectories. In this opinion paper, we explore the potential of soil inoculations as a tool to overcome these challenges by introducing beneficial microbial communities that can accelerate ecosystem recovery and forest development. Restoring soil biodiversity is a crucial aspect of this process that drives broader ecosystem functionality and resilience. We highlight the need to carefully consider the type and timing of inoculations and to ensure compatibility between the inoculum and recipient site characteristics to optimize the establishment of introduced species. While tree productivity is often a central focus of afforestation efforts, the restoration of soil biodiversity, which will also contribute to increased ecosystem-level functions, should also be a priority for long-term forest resilience. Agricultural legacies add complexities to the restoration process, creating unique challenges that need to be addressed in restoration planning. Thus, successful inoculation strategies require a thorough understanding of both donor and recipient site characteristics, also in relation to potential mismatches related to soil physiochemical properties to avoid unintended consequences such as the non-establishment of introduced species. Additionally, we call for the re-evaluation of afforestation targets and the development of standardized monitoring protocols that track the success of inoculation efforts, particularly regarding soil health, microbial community establishment, and biodiversity recovery. By integrating inoculation practices within a broader restoration framework, we can enhance the resilience, biodiversity, and ecosystem functionality of newly afforested landscapes. Ultimately, this approach may play a critical role in ensuring the success of large-scale afforestation projects.

This is the way the world ends; not with a bang but a whimper: Estimating the number and ongoing rate of extinctions of Australian non-marine invertebrates

Biodiversity is in rapid decline, but the extent of loss is not well resolved for poorly known groups. We estimate the number of extinctions for Australian non-marine invertebrates since the European colonisation of the continent. Our analyses use a range of approaches, incorporate stated uncertainties and recognise explicit caveats. We use plausible bounds for the number of species, two approaches for estimating extinction rate, and Monte Carlo simulations to select combinations of projected distributions from these variables. We conclude that 9,111 (plausible bounds of 1,465 to 56,828) Australian species have become extinct over this 236-year period. These estimates dwarf the number of formally recognised extinctions of Australian invertebrates (10 species) and of the single invertebrate species listed as extinct under Australian legislation. We predict that 39-148 species will become extinct in 2024. This is inconsistent with a recent pledge by the Australian government to prevent all extinctions. This high rate of loss is largely a consequence of pervasive taxonomic biases in community concern and conservation investment. Those characteristics also make it challenging to reduce that rate of loss, as there is uncertainty about which invertebrate species are at the most risk. We outline conservation responses to reduce the likelihood of further extinctions.

Finnish inventory data of underwater marine biodiversity

Since 2004, marine biodiversity inventory data have been systematically collected with diving, video, and benthic sampling methods in Finland. To date, this collection of data consists of more than 194 000 spatially explicit observations, covering more than 280 aquatic genera, representing mainly macroalgae, vascular plants, water mosses, and invertebrates. We describe the data collection and storage methods, data extraction from national databases, and provide potential users a curated, open-access version of the inventory data. Additionally, examples of data applications and discussion on potential limitations are provided. This extensive dataset can be used in ecological and biogeographical studies to provide general descriptions of biodiversity patterns and species distributions, as well as in more applied studies to support marine management, conservation, and sustainable use of marine areas. The sampling strategy and high spatial and taxonomic resolution allow for statistical modelling, which further increases the usability of the data in research, for instance in identifying key biodiversity areas, estimating biodiversity loss, and assessing efficiency of conservation.

Reviewing the science on 50 years of conservation: Knowledge production biases and lessons for practice

Drawing on 662 studies from 102 countries, we present a systematic review of published empirical studies about site-level biodiversity conservation initiated between 1970 and 2019. Within this sample, we find that knowledge production about the Global South is largely produced by researchers in the Global North, implying a neocolonial power dynamic. We also find evidence of bias in reported ecological outcomes linked to lack of independence in scientific studies, serving to uphold narratives about who should lead conservation. We explore relationships in the sample studies between conservation initiative types, the extent of Indigenous Peoples' and local communities' influence in governance, and reported social and ecological outcomes. Findings reveal positive ecological and social outcomes are strongly associated with higher levels of influence of Indigenous Peoples and local communities and their institutions, implying equity in conservation practice should be advanced not only for moral reasons, but because it can enhance conservation effectiveness.

Five lessons for avoiding failure when scaling in conservation

Many attempts to scale conservation actions have failed to deliver their intended benefits, caused unintended harm or later been abandoned, hampering efforts to bend the curve on biodiversity loss. Here we encourage those calling for scaling to pause and reflect on past scaling efforts, which offer valuable lessons: the total impact of an action depends on both its effectiveness and scalability; effectiveness can change depending on scale for multiple reasons; feedback processes can change socio-ecological conditions influencing future adoption; and the drive to scale can incentivize bad practices that undermine long-term outcomes. Cutting across these themes is the recognition that monitoring scaling can enhance evidence-informed adaptive management, reporting and research. We draw on evidence and concepts from disparate fields, explore new linkages between often isolated concepts and suggest strategies for practitioners, policymakers and researchers. Reflecting on these five lessons may help in the scaling of effective conservation actions in responsible ways to meet the triple goals of reversing biodiversity loss, combating climate change and supporting human wellbeing.

Taking the Pulse of Resilience in Conserving Seagrass Meadows

Foundational habitats such as seagrasses and coral reefs are at severe risk globally from climate warming. Infectious disease associated with warming events is both a cause of decline and an indicator of stress in both habitats. Since new approaches are needed to detect refugia and design climate-smart networks of marine protected areas, we test the hypothesis that the health of eelgrass (Zostera marina) in temperate ecosystems can serve as a proxy indicative of higher resilience and help pinpoint refugia. Eelgrass meadows worldwide are at risk from environmental stressors, including climate warming and disease. Disease outbreaks of Labyrinthula zosterae are associated with recent, widespread declines in eelgrass meadows throughout the San Juan Islands, Washington, USA. Machine language learning, drone surveys, and molecular diagnostics reveal climate impacts on seagrass wasting disease prevalence (proportion of infected individuals) and severity (proportion of infected leaf area) from San Diego, California, to Alaska. Given that warmer temperatures favor many pathogens such as L. zosterae, we hypothesize that absent or low disease severity in meadows could indicate eelgrass resilience to climate and pathogenic stressors. Regional surveys showed the San Juan Islands as a hotspot for both high disease prevalence and severity, and surveys throughout the Northeast Pacific indicated higher prevalence and severity in intertidal, rather than subtidal, meadows. Further, among sites with eelgrass declines, losses were more pronounced at sites with shallower eelgrass meadows. We suggest that deeper meadows with the lowest disease severity will be refuges from future warming and pathogenic stressors in the Northeast Pacific. Disease monitoring may be a useful conservation approach for marine foundation species, as low or absent disease severity can pinpoint resilient refugia that should be prioritized for future conservation efforts. Even in declining or at-risk habitats, disease surveys can help identify meadows that may contain especially resilient individuals for future restoration efforts. Our approach of using disease as a pulse point for eelgrass resilience to multiple stressors could be applied to other habitats such as coral reefs to inform conservation and management decisions.

Protected areas: Biodiversity or people - or both?

With 195 countries agreeing to protect 30% of the globe in an effort to curb the ongoing biodiversity crisis, there is an increasing focus on how this might harm or potentially benefit people living in and around protected areas.