Prediction of resources needed to achieve the national target for treatment of renal failure

Dialysis at Home in the West of Scotland: A Comparison of Hemodialysis and Continuous Ambulatory Peritoneal Dialysis in Age and Sex-Matched Controls

Objective

To audit the outcome of patients treated at home by hemodialysis and continuous ambulatory peritoneal dialysis (CAPD).

Design

Retrospective comparison of nondiabetic hemodialysis patients with age and sex-matched nondiabetic patients treated by CAPD.

Setting

Renal Units, Stobhill General Hospital and Western Infirmary, Glasgow, providing the home dialysis service for the West of Scotland.

Patients

Between 1982 and 1988, 139 hemodialysis patients starting treatment at home, compared with 139 matched patients starting CAPD over the same time period.

Main Outcome Measures

Patient characteristics and cardiovascular risk factors at the start of home treatment. Patient and technique survival with both forms of dialysis.

Results

Patients selected for home hemodialysis were less likely to be smokers (p<0.02) and to have electrocardiographic evidence of ischemia or left ventricular hypertrophy (p<0.05) than patients treated by CAPD. Patient survival and technique survival (excluding death and renal transplantation) at 3 years were 93.8% versus 86.2% (p<0.05) and 94.2% versus 80.8% (p<0.04) for hemodialysis and CAPD, respectively. Cardiovascular events were responsible for the majority of deaths in both groups, but there was a greater proportion of deaths from other causes in patients treated by CAPD. There was no significant difference in the transplantation rate between the two treatment groups.

Conclusions

Home dialysis is an effective method of renal replacement treatment for patients with end-stage renal disease. The results of hemodialysis are superior to CAPD, but this may be partly due to selection bias.

The cost of living: kidney dialysis, rationing and health economics in Britain, 1965-1996

How important is research in shaping policy when a new life-saving medical technology becomes available, but happens to be very expensive? Taking the case of kidney dialysis, this paper argues that the emerging discipline of health economics had little influence relative to national differences in health service organization and cultures of expectation of provision. Paradoxically, the most effective covert rationing was achieved under the British NHS which ostensibly provides free care for all, while the uncentralised market system in the US gave way, on this issue, to almost universal state-subsidised provision. Under the British system, the most cost-effective options for renal care tended to flourish, but some patients were turned away. Physicians have been held responsible for complying with covert rationing: this paper suggests that early gearing towards socially-useful survival filtered back to selection at primary level, possibly continuing long after specialists wished to expand. Public outcry, though muted, reached parliament and caused minor shifts in policy; the main aim of the voluntary pressure campaign, to release more organs for transplant through 'opt-out', remained unrealised in the UK. Yet dialysis was targetted for expansion in the 1980s just at the point when health economists were presenting evidence for its low cost-effectiveness compared with other expensive interventions. According to the main strand of argument in this paper, comparisons with other countries and between regions were most influential in breaking the hold of covert rationing: policy making by embarrassment. However, in the 1990s, there are both theoretical discussions of explicit rationing, and open intiatives afoot to target dialysis for rationing.

The need and demand for renal replacement therapy in ethnic minorities in England

STUDY OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to determine the relative risk of being accepted for renal replacement treatment of black and Asian populations compared with whites in relation to age, sex, and underlying cause. The implications for population need for renal replacement therapy in these populations and for the development of renal services were also considered.

DESIGN/SETTING

This was a cross sectional retrospective survey of all patients accepted for renal replacement treatment in renal units in England in 1991 and 1992.

PATIENTS

These comprised all 5901 patients resident in England with end-stage renal failure who had been accepted for renal replacement therapy in renal units in England and whose ethnic category was available from the units. Patients were categorised as white, Asian, black, or other. Population denominators for the ethnic populations were taken from the 1991 census. The census categories Indian, Pakistani, and Bangladeshi were aggregated to form the denominator for Asian patients, and black Caribbeans, black Africans, and black others were aggregated to form the denominator for black patients.

MAIN RESULT

Altogether 7.7% of patients accepted were Asian and 4.7% were black; crude relative acceptance rates compared with whites were 3.5 and 3.2 respectively. Age sex specific relative acceptance ratios increased with age in both ethnic populations and were greater in females. Age standardised acceptance ratios were increased 4.2 and 3.7 times in Asian and black people respectively. The most common underlaying cause in both these populations was diabetes; relative rates of acceptance for diabetic end-stage renal failure were 5.8 and 6.5 respectively. The European Dialysis and Transplant Association coding system was inaccurate for disaggregating non-insulin and insulin dependent forms. "Unknown causes" were an important category in Asians with a relative acceptance of rate 5.7. The relative rates were reduced only slightly when the comparison was confined to the district health authorities with large ethnic minority populations, suggesting that geographical access was not a major factor in the high rates for ethnic minorities.

CONCLUSION

Acceptance rates for renal replacement treatment are increased significantly in Asian and black populations. Although data inaccuracies and access factors may contribute to these findings, the main reason is probably the higher incidence of end-stage renal failure. This in turn is due to the greater prevalence of underlying diseases such as non-insulin dependent diabetes but possibly also increased susceptibility of developing nethropathy. The main implication is that these populations age demand for renal replacement treatment will increase. This will have an impact nationally but will be particularly apparent in areas with large ethnic minority populations. Future planning must take these factors into account and should include strategies for preventing chronic renal failure, especially that due to non-insulin dependent diabetes and hypertension. The data could not determine the extent to which population need was being met; further studies are required to estimate the incidence of end-stage renal failure in ethnic minority populations.

The cost of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) in England and Wales

This study estimates the direct health and social care costs of insulin-dependent diabetes mellitus (IDDM) in England and Wales in 1992 to be 96 million pounds, or 1021 pounds per person in a population with IDDM estimated at 94,000 individuals. These costs include insulin maintenance, hospitalization, GP and out-patient consultations, renal replacement therapy, and payments to informal carers. Expenditure is concentrated on younger age groups, with one-third of the total expended on those aged 0-24. Around one-half of the total costs can be directly attributed to IDDM, with the remainder associated with a range of complications of the disease. The single largest area of service expenditure is renal replacement therapy. The cost estimates are most sensitive to incidence rates of IDDM, numbers on dialysis and average duration of dialysis. A further 113 million pounds may be lost each year due to premature deaths resulting in lost productive contributions to the economy. The direct and indirect costs of IDDM are therefore significant. The cost of illness framework presented here should facilitate the economic evaluation of new and existing treatment regimens, which may improve value for money by reducing costs and/or increasing the quality or quantity of life for people with IDDM.

Simulation model for planning renal services in a district health authority

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the use of a computer simulation model in planning and budgeting for renal replacement services.

SETTING

Regional renal unit.

RESULTS

The simulation provided projections that accurately reflected the actual numbers of people maintained on different forms of renal replacement therapy in previous years. Projections up to the end of the century showed that with no change in the demand for the service the total number of people on the renal replacement programme would increase by 40%. Increasing the uptake of new patients from 40 per million to 55 per million would mean an increase of 66% in patient numbers over the same period. Similarly, at present day prices the cost of providing the service would rise by 31% with no change in demand and by twice this with the greater uptake of new patients. Increasing the number of transplant operations was shown to offer little prospect of a reduction in these costs.

CONCLUSION

The simulation program could be used by individual renal units to evaluate different treatment policies and to budget for resource use. Even at current demand levels resource requirements for renal replacement therapy will continue to grow until after the end of the century.

Prevalence of advanced renal failure in Northern Ireland

OBJECTIVE

To determine the prevalence of advanced chronic renal failure in Northern Ireland as part of an assessment by the Renal Association of the level of service provision for treatment of such patients.

DESIGN

Prospective notification of patients reaching a defined level of advanced chronic renal failure (serum creatinine concentration greater than or equal to 500 mumol/l or blood urea concentration greater than or equal to 25 mmol/l) within one year and follow up for at least three, and, at most, four years after notification.

SETTING

Northern Ireland.

PATIENTS

122 Patients with a serum creatinine or blood urea concentration higher than the defined level newly detected from 1 March 1985 to 28 February 1986.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Survival after notification.

RESULTS

77 Patients of all ages/million population/year had advanced chronic renal failure compared with 67/million/year between the ages of 5 and 80 found in an earlier study of the same population. 62% Of the patients were older than 50 years. Seventeen (14%) of the patients either required dialysis or died within one month of notification, 51 (42%) survived for at least three months, and 23 (19%) for one year or longer. Three patients, all of whom were attending a renal clinic, survived for periods of 43, 45, and 46 months respectively without renal replacement treatment.

CONCLUSIONS

The increased number of new patients disclosed in this survey compared with the earlier survey is mainly owing to an increased number of older patients. Such patients often have disabilities other than renal failure, are less likely to be capable of self treatment, may develop complications more often and require more frequent hospital admissions, and may not be suitable for transplantation and consequently have considerable resource implications for the NHS.

Rationing health care: the choice before us

Rapid technological advances and upward pressure on wages of hospital personnel are leading to a steady increase in health care spending that is absorbing an ever-larger fraction of gross national product. Eliminating inefficiencies in the system can provide brief fiscal relief, but rationing of beneficial services, even to the well-insured, offers the only prospect for sustained reduction in the growth of health care spending. The United States, which has negligible direct experience with rationing, can learn about choices it will face from the experience of Great Britain where health care has been rationed explicitly for many years.

Organ donation from intensive care units in England

OBJECTIVE

To audit all deaths in intensive care units (excepting coronary care only and neonatal intensive care units) in England to assess potential for organ procurement.

DESIGN

An audit in which 14 regional health authorities and London special health authorities each designated a regional liaison officer to identify intensive care units and liaise with Department of Health and the Medical Research Council's biostatistics unit in distribution, return, and checking of audit forms. Audit took place from 1 January to 31 March 1989 and will continue to 31 December 1990.

SETTING

278 Intensive care units in England.

PARTICIPANTS

Colleagues in intensive care units (doctors, nurses, coordinators, and others), who completed serially numbered audit forms for all patients who died in intensive care.

RESULTS

The estimated number of deaths in intensive care units was 3085, and validated audit forms were received for 2853 deaths (92%). Brain stem death was a possible diagnosis in only 407 (14%) patients (about 1700 cases a year) and was confirmed in 282 (10%) patients (an estimated 1200 cases a year). Half the patients (95% confidence interval 45% to 57%) in whom brain stem death was confirmed became actual donors of solid organs. Tests for brain stem death were not performed in 106 (26%) of 407 patients with brain stem death as a possible diagnosis, and general medical contraindication to organ donation was recorded for 48 (17%) of 282 patients who fulfilled brain stem death criteria before cessation of heart beat. The criteria were fulfilled before cessation of heart beat and in the absence of any general medical contraindication to organ donation in 234 patients, 8% of those dying in intensive care (an estimated 1000 cases a year). Consent for organ donation was given in 152 (70%) of 218 cases (64% to 76%) when the possibility of organ donation was suggested to relatives. In only 14 out of 232 families (6%; 3% to 9%) was there no discussion of organ donation with relatives. Corneal suitability was recorded as "not known" in a high proportion (1271; 45%) of all deaths and intensive care units reported only 123 corneal donors (4% of all audited deaths).

CONCLUSION

When brain stem death is a possible diagnosis tests should always be carried out for confirmation. Early referral to the transplant team or coordinator should occur in all cases of brain stem death to check contraindications to organ donation. There should be increased use of asystolic kidney donation, and patients should be routinely assessed for suitability for corneal donation. Finally, more publicity and education are necessary to promote consent.

The cost of chronic dialysis in multiple myeloma

The complications and costs of chronic dialysis in 4 patients with renal failure due to multiple myeloma are presented. In three patients the paraprotein responded to chemotherapy though without recovery of renal function. These three patients are alive after 18, 16 and 15 months of dialysis, the other dying after 7 months. Hospital admissions ranged from 26 to 74 days per year with infections accounting for 54 to 87% of admission days, 62.5% of which occurred during the first three months of dialysis treatment, with an incidence of 2.4 to 6.9 admissions episodes per year. An in-house audit of our chronic dialysis patients indicated that treatment of myeloma patients is 5-33% more expensive. The extra cost in such high risk patients is mostly due to the greater number and longer duration of hospital admissions for infection. The other extra costs (in decreasing value) of blood products, antibiotics and chemotherapy are relatively small in comparison to in-patient treatment.

Transplants from living donors in the United Kingdom and Ireland: a centre survey

A survey was carried out to determine for the first time the extent of transplantation from living donors in the United Kingdom and Republic of Ireland and the views of transplant surgeons regarding future developments. Questionnaires were sent to 32 transplant centres representing 18 health regions and covered their extent of experience of transplantation, sources of donors, ages of donors and recipients, outcome of transplantation, and views on expansion of living donor transplantation services. Replies received from 27 transplant centres representing 17 health regions gave data on more than 1200 transplants from living donors. Transplants from living donors accounted for 0-25% of the total experience of health regions. Two centres had abandoned living donor transplantation. Sixty per cent of transplant surgeons favoured expansion of the living donor programme to meet a shortage of kidneys from cadavers, and the remainder thought that existing programmes were optimal. Living donor transplantation promises to be an important factor in the future planning of health care resources.

Late renal failure due to prostatic outflow obstruction: a preventable disease

Nineteen patients presenting with late renal failure due to prostatic outflow obstruction (mean age 68.7 years; mean serum creatinine concentration 1158 mumol/l) were identified from the admission records of two renal units. As late renal failure secondary to prostatic enlargement is preventable case records were analysed retrospectively in an attempt to identify aspects of management in which preventive efforts might be of value. Delays in referral were common, with a mean of 2.8 years between the onset of prostatic symptoms and time of referral, six patients being referred who had had symptoms for more than three years. Four of five patients who had had a prostatectomy were known to be in renal failure at the time of operation but were not referred until 2-13 years later, when prostatic symptoms had recurred and there was evidence of progressive nephropathy with dilatation of the upper urinary tract. Two patients died on admission and eight (47% of survivors) required long term dialysis, most patients (80%) requiring some dialysis support during the initial period. These findings suggest that progressive nephropathy caused by prostatic outflow obstruction might, in part, be averted by more adequate screening of renal function in men with untreated prostatism and closer follow up of patients with uraemia at the time of prostatectomy.