Death within 1 year among emergency medical admissions to Scottish hospitals: incident cohort study

Raising awareness and preparation for what may come: next of kin experiences of advance care planning with frail, home-dwelling older adults in geriatric units

BACKGROUND

Acutely ill and frail older adults and their next of kin are often poorly involved in planning of decisions regarding treatment and care during the final phase of life. Although advance care planning is a well-documented tool to strengthen patient autonomy and involve next of kin, it remains underused in hospital settings. We present a qualitative sub-study embedded in a cluster-randomized controlled trial, whose purpose was to implement advance care planning in Norwegian geriatric units. Frail, home dwelling older adults acutely admitted to geriatric hospital units were invited to participate in advance care planning together with their next of kin. The aim of this study was to explore next of kin experiences of advance care planning.

METHODS

The study has a qualitative design, based on individual semi-structured interviews with 13 next of kin. A purposive sampling was used to select next of kin who had recently participated in advance care planning from five geriatric units in the intervention arm. The analysis was conducted using reflexive thematic analysis by Braun and Clarke.

RESULTS

Four themes were developed from the analysis; (1) Being informed and involved through open communication; (2) Getting prepared for what's to come; (3) The importance of the next of kin role in providing support and facilitation; (4) The need for documentation and collaboration across service levels.

CONCLUSION

Advance care planning appears to provide a sense of security among next of kin by addressing their information needs regarding the patient's prognosis, encouraging discussions on possible courses of action, and clarifying the patient's end-of-life preferences. Next of kin played a crucial role in supporting the patient's autonomy, and they considered the hospital stay as an ideal time for advance care planning. Increased awareness of their role as next of kin seems to enhance agreement and trust when confronting challenging situations and existential questions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NTCT05681585. Registered 03.01.23.

Developing an electronic surprise question to predict end-of-life prognosis in a prospective cohort study of acute hospital admissions

OBJECTIVE

Determining the accuracy of a method calculating the Gold Standards Framework Surprise Question (GSFSQ) equivalent end-of-life prognosis amongst hospital inpatients.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study with regression calculated 1-year mortality probability. Probability cut points triaged unknown prognosis into the GSFSQ equivalent 'Yes' or 'No' survival categories (> or < 1-year respectively), with subsidiary classification of 'No'. Prediction was tested against prospective mortality.

SETTING

An acute NHS hospital.

PARTICIPANTS

18,838 acute medical admissions.

INTERVENTIONS

Allocation of mortality probability by binary logistic regression model (X2=6,650.2, p<0.001, r2 = 0.43) and stepwise algorithmic risk-stratification.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

Prospective mortality at 1-year.

RESULTS

End-of-life prognosis was unknown in 67.9%. The algorithm's prognosis allocation (100% vs baseline 32.1%) yielded cohorts of GSFSQ-Yes 15,264 (81%), GSFSQ-No Green 1,771 (9.4%) and GSFSQ-No Amber or Red 1,803 (9.6%). There were 5,043 (26.8%) deaths at 1-year. In Cox's survival, model allocated cohorts were discrete for mortality (GSFSQ-Yes 16.4% v GSFSQ-No 71.0% (p<0.001). For the GSFSQ-No classification, the mortality odds ratio was 12.4 (11.4-13.5) (p<0.001) vs GSFSQ-Yes (c-statistic 0.72 (0.70-0.73), p<0.001; accuracy, positive and negative predictive values 81.2%, 83.6%, 83.6%, respectively). Had the tool been utilised at the time of admission, the potential to reduce possibly avoidable subsequent hospital admissions, death-in-hospital and bed days was significant (p<0.001).

CONCLUSION

This study is unique in methodology with prospectively evidenced outcomes. The model algorithm allocated GSFSQ equivalent EOL prognosis universally to a cohort of acutely admitted patients with statistical accuracy validated against prospective mortality outcomes.

Emergency physicians' and nurses' perception on the adequacy of emergency calls for nursing home residents: a non-interventional prospective study

Introduction

A considerable percentage of daily emergency calls are for nursing home residents. With the ageing of the overall European population, an increase in emergency calls and interventions in nursing homes (NH) is to be expected. A proportion of these interventions and hospital transfers may be preventable and could be considered as inappropriate by prehospital emergency medical personnel. The study aimed to understand Belgian emergency physicians' and emergency nurses' perspectives on emergency calls and interventions in NHs and investigate factors contributing to their perception of inappropriateness.

Methods

An exploratory non-interventional prospective study was conducted in Belgium among emergency physicians and emergency nurses, currently working in prehospital emergency medicine. Electronic questionnaires were sent out in September, October and November 2023. Descriptive statistics were used to analyze the overall results, as well as to compare the answers between emergency physicians and emergency nurses about certain topics.

Results

A total of 114 emergency physicians and 78 nurses responded to the survey. The mean age was 38 years with a mean working experience of 10 years in prehospital healthcare. Nursing home staff were perceived as understaffed and lacking in competence, with an impact on patient care especially during nights and weekends. General practitioners were perceived as insufficiently involved in the patient's care, as well as often unavailable in times of need, leading to activation of Emergency Medical Services (EMS) and transfers of nursing home residents to the Emergency Department (ED). Advance directives were almost never available at EMS interventions and transfers were often not in accordance with the patient's wishes. Palliative care and pain treatment were perceived as insufficient. Emergency physicians and nurses felt mostly disappointed and frustrated. Additionally, differences in perception were noted between emergency physicians and nurses regarding certain topics. Emergency nurses were more convinced that the nursing home physician should be available 24/7 and that transfers could be avoided if nursing home staff had more authority regarding medical interventions. Emergency nurses were also more under the impression that pain management was inadequate, and emergency physicians were more afraid of the medical implications of doing too little during interventions than emergency nurses. Suggestions to reduce the number of EMS interventions were more general practitioner involvement (82%), better nursing home staff education/competences (77%), more nursing home staff (67%), mobile palliative care support teams (65%) and mobile geriatric nursing intervention teams (52%).

Discussion and conclusion

EMS interventions in nursing homes were almost never seen as necessary or indicated by emergency physicians and nurses, with the appropriate EMS level almost never being activated. The following key issues were found: shortages in numbers and competence of nursing home staff, insufficient primary care due to the unavailability of the general practitioner as well as a lack of involvement in patient care, and an absence of readily available advance directives. General practitioners should be more involved in the decision to call the Emergency Medical Services (EMS) and to transfer nursing home residents to the Emergency Department. Healthcare workers should strive for vigilance regarding the patients' wishes. The emotional burden of deciding on an avoidable hospital admission of nursing home residents, perhaps out of fear for medico-legal consequences if doing too little, leaves the emergency physicians and nurses frustrated and disappointed. Improvements in nursing home staffing, more acute and chronic general practitioner consultations, and mobile geriatric and palliative care support teams are potential solutions. Further research should focus on the structural improvement of the above-mentioned shortcomings.

Evaluation of venous thromboembolism risk assessment models for hospital inpatients: the VTEAM evidence synthesis

Background

Pharmacological prophylaxis during hospital admission can reduce the risk of acquired blood clots (venous thromboembolism) but may cause complications, such as bleeding. Using a risk assessment model to predict the risk of blood clots could facilitate selection of patients for prophylaxis and optimise the balance of benefits, risks and costs.

Objectives

We aimed to identify validated risk assessment models and estimate their prognostic accuracy, evaluate the cost-effectiveness of different strategies for selecting hospitalised patients for prophylaxis, assess the feasibility of using efficient research methods and estimate key parameters for future research.

Design

We undertook a systematic review, decision-analytic modelling and observational cohort study conducted in accordance with Enhancing the QUAlity and Transparency Of health Research (EQUATOR) guidelines.

Setting

NHS hospitals, with primary data collection at four sites.

Participants

Medical and surgical hospital inpatients, excluding paediatric, critical care and pregnancy-related admissions.

Interventions

Prophylaxis for all patients, none and according to selected risk assessment models.

Main outcome measures

Model accuracy for predicting blood clots, lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life-years associated with alternative strategies, accuracy of efficient methods for identifying key outcomes and proportion of inpatients recommended prophylaxis using different models.

Results

We identified 24 validated risk assessment models, but low-quality heterogeneous data suggested weak accuracy for prediction of blood clots and generally high risk of bias in all studies. Decision-analytic modelling showed that pharmacological prophylaxis for all eligible is generally more cost-effective than model-based strategies for both medical and surgical inpatients, when valuing a quality-adjusted life-year at £20,000. The findings were more sensitive to uncertainties in the surgical population; strategies using risk assessment models were more cost-effective if the model was assumed to have a very high sensitivity, or the long-term risks of post-thrombotic complications were lower. Efficient methods using routine data did not accurately identify blood clots or bleeding events and several pre-specified feasibility criteria were not met. Theoretical prophylaxis rates across an inpatient cohort based on existing risk assessment models ranged from 13% to 91%.

Limitations

Existing studies may underestimate the accuracy of risk assessment models, leading to underestimation of their cost-effectiveness. The cost-effectiveness findings do not apply to patients with an increased risk of bleeding. Mechanical thromboprophylaxis options were excluded from the modelling. Primary data collection was predominately retrospective, risking case ascertainment bias.

Conclusions

Thromboprophylaxis for all patients appears to be generally more cost-effective than using a risk assessment model, in hospitalised patients at low risk of bleeding. To be cost-effective, any risk assessment model would need to be highly sensitive. Current evidence on risk assessment models is at high risk of bias and our findings should be interpreted in this context. We were unable to demonstrate the feasibility of using efficient methods to accurately detect relevant outcomes for future research.

Future work

Further research should evaluate routine prophylaxis strategies for all eligible hospitalised patients. Models that could accurately identify individuals at very low risk of blood clots (who could discontinue prophylaxis) warrant further evaluation.

Study registration

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42020165778 and Researchregistry5216.

Funding

This award was funded by the National Institute for Health and Care Research (NIHR) Health Technology Assessment programme (NIHR award ref: NIHR127454) and will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 28, No. 20. See the NIHR Funding and Awards website for further award information.

Effectiveness and cost effectiveness of pharmacological thromboprophylaxis for medical inpatients: decision analysis modelling study

Objective

To determine the balance of costs, risks, and benefits for different thromboprophylaxis strategies for medical patients during hospital admission.

Design

Decision analysis modelling study.

Setting

NHS hospitals in England.

Population

Eligible adult medical inpatients, excluding patients in critical care and pregnant women.

Interventions

Pharmacological thromboprophylaxis (low molecular weight heparin) for all medical inpatients, thromboprophylaxis for none, and thromboprophylaxis given to higher risk inpatients according to risk assessment models (Padua, Caprini, IMPROVE, Intermountain, Kucher, Geneva, and Rothberg) previously validated in medical cohorts.

Main outcome measures

Lifetime costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs). Costs were assessed from the perspective of the NHS and Personal Social Services in England. Other outcomes assessed were incidence and treatment of venous thromboembolism, major bleeds including intracranial haemorrhage, chronic thromboembolic complications, and overall survival.

Results

Offering thromboprophylaxis to all medical inpatients had a high probability (>99%) of being the most cost effective strategy (at a threshold of £20 000 (€23 440; $25 270) per QALY) in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis, when applying performance data from the Padua risk assessment model, which was typical of that observed across several risk assessment models in a medical inpatient cohort. Thromboprophylaxis for all medical inpatients was estimated to result in 0.0552 additional QALYs (95% credible interval 0.0209 to 0.1111) while generating cost savings of £28.44 (-£47 to £105) compared with thromboprophylaxis for none. No other risk assessment model was more cost effective than thromboprophylaxis for all medical inpatients when assessed in deterministic analysis. Risk based thromboprophylaxis was found to have a high (76.6%) probability of being the most cost effective strategy only when assuming a risk assessment model with very high sensitivity is available (sensitivity 99.9% and specificity 23.7% v base case sensitivity 49.3% and specificity 73.0%).

Conclusions

Offering pharmacological thromboprophylaxis to all eligible medical inpatients appears to be the most cost effective strategy. To be cost effective, any risk assessment model would need to have a very high sensitivity resulting in widespread thromboprophylaxis in all patients except those at the very lowest risk, who could potentially avoid prophylactic anticoagulation during their hospital stay.

Acute care models for older people living with frailty: a systematic review and taxonomy

BACKGROUND

The need to improve the acute care pathway to meet the care needs of older people living with frailty is a strategic priority for many healthcare systems. The optimal care model for this patient group is unclear.

METHODS

A systematic review was conducted to derive a taxonomy of acute care models for older people with acute medical illness and describe the outcomes used to assess their effectiveness. Care models providing time-limited episodes of care (up to 14 days) within 48 h of presentation to patients over the age of 65 with acute medical illness were included. Care models based in hospital and community settings were eligible. Searches were undertaken in Medline, Embase, CINAHL and Cochrane databases. Interventions were described and classified in detail using a modified version of the TIDIeR checklist for complex interventions. Outcomes were described and classified using the Core Outcome Measures in Effectiveness Trials (COMET) taxonomy. Risk of bias was assessed using RoB2 and ROBINS-I.

RESULTS

The inclusion criteria were met by 103 articles. Four classes of acute care model were identified, acute-bed based care, hospital at home, emergency department in-reach and care home models. The field is dominated by small single centre randomised and non-randomised studies. Most studies were judged to be at risk of bias. A range of outcome measures were reported with little consistency between studies. Evidence of effectiveness was limited.

CONCLUSION

Acute care models for older people living with frailty are heterogenous. The clinical effectiveness of these models cannot be conclusively established from the available evidence.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO registration (CRD42021279131).

Short- and long-term mortality following acute medical admission

BACKGROUND

Short-term in-hospital mortality following acute medical admission has been widely investigated. Longer term mortality, particularly out-of-hospital mortality, has been less well studied.

AIM

The aim of this study is to evaluate short- and long-term mortality, and predictors of such, following acute medical admission.

DESIGN

Retrospective database study.

METHODS

We evaluated all acute medical admissions to our institution over 10 years (2002-11) with a minimum of a further 10 years follow-up to 2021 using the Irish National Death Register. Predictors of 30-day in-hospital and long-term mortality were analysed with logistic and Cox regression, with loss of life years estimated.

RESULTS

The 2002-11 cohort consisted of 62 184 admissions in 35 140 patients. 30-Day in hospital mortality (n = 3646) per patient was 10.4% and per admission was 5.9%. There were an additional 11 440 longer-term deaths by 2021-total mortality was 15 086 (42.9%). Deaths post hospital discharge had median age at admission of 75.4 years [interquartile range (IQR) 63.7, 82.8] and died at median age of 80 years (IQR 69, 87). The half-life of survival following admission was 195 months-representing a short fall of 8 life years (32.9%) compared with the projected population reference of 24.3 years. Age [odds ratio (OR) 1.73 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.64, 1.81)], acute illness severity score [OR 1.39 (95% CI 1.36, 1.43)] and comorbidity score [OR 1.09 (95% CI 1.08, 1.10)] predicted long-term mortality.

CONCLUSION

Similar factors influence both short- and long-term mortality following acute medical admission, the magnitude of effect is attenuated over time.

Red Cell Distribution Width as a Prognostic Indicator in Acute Medical Admissions

The red cell distribution width (RDW) is the coefficient of variation of the mean corpuscular volume (MCV). We sought to evaluate RDW as a predictor of outcomes following acute medical admission. We studied 10 years of acute medical admissions (2002-2011) with subsequent follow-up to 2021. RDW was converted to a categorical variable, Q1 < 12.9 fl, Q2-Q4 ≥ 12.9 and <15.7 fL and Q5 ≥ 15.7 fL. The predictive value of RDW for 30-day in-hospital and long-term mortality was evaluated with logistic and Cox regression modelling. Adjusted odds ratios (aORs) were calculated and loss of life years estimated. There were 62,184 admissions in 35,140 patients. The 30-day in-hospital mortality (n = 3646) occurred in 5.9% of admissions. An additional 15,086 (42.9%) deaths occurred by December 2021. Admission RDW independently predicted 30-day in-hospital mortality aOR 1.93 (95%CI 1.79, 2.07). Admission RDW independently predicted long-term mortality aOR 1.04 (95%CI 1.02, 1.05). Median survival post-admission was 189 months. For those with admission RDW in Q5, observed survival half-life was 133 months-this represents a shortfall of 5.7 life years (33.9%). In conclusion, admission RDW independently predicts 30-day in-hospital and long-term mortality.

Digital health and inpatient palliative care: a cohort-controlled study

OBJECTIVES

End of life has unacceptable levels of hospital admission and death. We aimed to determine the association of a novel digital specific system (Proactive Risk-Based and Data-Driven Assessment of Patients at the End of Life, PRADA) to modify such events.

METHODS

A cohort-controlled study of those discharged alive, who died within 90 days of discharge, comparing PRADA (n=114) with standard care (n=3730).

RESULTS

At 90 days, the PRADA group were more likely to die (78.9% vs 46.2%, p<0.001), had a shorter time to death (58±90 vs 178±186 days, p<0.001) but readmission (20.2% vs 37.9%, p<0.001) or death in hospital (4.4% vs 28.9%, p<0.001) was lower with reduced risk for a combined 90-day outcome of postdischarge non-elective admission or hospital death (OR 0.45, 95% CI 0.27-0.74, p<0.001). Tightening criteria with 1:1 matching (n=83 vs 83) showed persistent significant findings in PRADA contact with markedly reduced adverse events (OR 0.15, 95% CI 0.02-0.96, p<0.05).

CONCLUSIONS

Being seen in hospital by a specialist palliative care team using the PRADA tool was associated with significantly improved postdischarge outcomes pertaining to those destined to die after discharge.

Performance status: A key factor in predicting mortality in the first wave of COVID-19 in South-East Scotland

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 mortality risk factors have been established in large cohort studies; long-term mortality outcomes are less documented.

METHODS

We performed multivariable logistic regression to identify factors associated with in-patient mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission in symptomatic COVID-19 patients admitted to hospitals in South-East Scotland from 1st March to 30th June 2020. One-year mortality was reviewed.

RESULTS

Of 726 patients (median age 72; interquartile range: 58-83 years, 55% male), 104 (14%) required ICU admission and 199 (27%) died in hospital. A further 64 died between discharge and 30th June 2021 (36% overall 1-year mortality). Stepwise logistic regression identified age >79 (odds ratio (OR), 4.77 (95% confidence interval (CI), 1.96-12.75)), male sex (OR, 1.83 (95% CI, 1.21-2.80)) and higher European Cooperative Oncology Group/World Health Organization performance status as associated with higher mortality risk.

DISCUSSION

Poor functional baseline was the predominant independent risk factor for mortality in COVID-19. More than one-third of individuals had died by 1 year following admission.

Views of advance care planning in older hospitalized patients following an emergency admission: A qualitative study

Background

There is increasing evidence of the need to consider advance care planning (ACP) for older adults who have been recently admitted to hospital as an emergency. However, there is a gap in knowledge regarding how to facilitate ACP following acute illness in later life.

Aim/Objectives

To explore the perceived impact of ACP on the lives of older persons aged 70+ who have been acutely admitted to hospital.

Method

Semi-structured qualitative interviews were conducted with older adults aged 70+ who were admitted to hospital as an emergency. Thematic analysis was enhanced by dual coding and exploration of divergent views within an interdisciplinary team.

Results

Twenty participants were interviewed. Thematic analysis generated the following themes: (1) Bespoke planning to holistically support a sense of self, (2) ACP as a socio-cultural phenomenon advocating for older persons rights, (3) The role of personal relationships, (4) Navigating unfamiliar territory and (5) Harnessing resources.

Conclusion

These findings indicate that maintaining a sense of personal identity and protecting individuals’ wishes and rights during ACP is important to older adults who have been acutely unwell. Following emergency hospitalization, older persons believe that ACP must be supported by a network of relationships and resources, improving the likelihood of adequate preparation to navigate the uncertainties of future care in later life. Therefore, emergency hospitalization in later life, and the uncertainty that may follow, may provide a catalyst for patients, carers and healthcare professionals to leverage existing or create new relationships and target resources to enable ACP, in order to uphold older persons’ identity, rights and wishes following acute illness.

Co-designing an intervention to increase uptake of advance care planning in later life following emergency hospitalisation: a research protocol using accelerated experience-based co-design (AEBCD) and the behaviour change wheel (BCW)

INTRODUCTION

Despite the potential benefits of advance care planning, uptake in older adults is low. In general, there is a lack of guidance as to how to initiate advance care planning conversations and encourage individuals to take action in planning their future care, including after emergency hospitalisation. Participatory action research methods are harnessed in health services research to design interventions that are relevant to end-users and stakeholders. This study aims to involve older persons, carers and healthcare professionals in co-designing an intervention to increase uptake of advance care planning in later life, which can be used by social contacts and healthcare professionals, particularly in the context of a recent emergency hospitalisation.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

The theory-driven participatory design research method integrates and adapts accelerated experience-based co-design with the behaviour change wheel, in the form of a collaborative multi-stakeholder co-design workshop. In total, 12 participants, comprising 4 lay persons aged 70+, 4 carers and 4 healthcare professionals with experience in elder care, will be recruited to participate in two online half-day sessions, together comprising one online workshop. There will be a maximum of two workshops. First, in the discovery phase, participants will reflect on findings from earlier qualitative research on views and experiences of advance care planning from three workstreams: patients, carers and healthcare professionals. Second, in the co-design phase, participants will explore practical mechanisms in which older persons aged 70+ can be encouraged to adopt advance care planning behaviours based on the behaviour change wheel, in order to co-design a behavioural intervention to increase uptake of advance care planning in older adults after an emergency hospitalisation.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval has been obtained from the Science Engineering Technology Research Ethics Committee at Imperial College London (Reference: 19IC5538). The findings from this study will be disseminated through publications, conferences and meetings.

Hospital at home for acute medical illness: The 21st century acute medical unit for a changing population

Recent trends across Europe show a year-on-year increase in the number of patients with acute medical illnesses presenting to hospitals, yet there are no plans for a substantial expansion in acute hospital infrastructure or staffing to address demand. Strategies to meet increasing demand need to consider the fact that there is limited capacity in acute hospitals and focus on new care models in both hospital and community settings. Increasing the efficiency of acute hospital provision by reducing the length of stay entails supporting acute ambulatory care, where patients receive daily acute care interventions but do not stay overnight in the hospitals. This approach may entail daily transfer between home and an acute setting for ongoing treatment, which is unsuitable for some patients living with frailty. Acute hospital at home (HaH) is a care model which, thanks to advances in point of care diagnostic capability, can provide a credible model of acute medical assessment and treatment without the need for hospital transfer. Investment and training to support scaling up of HaH are key strategic aims for integrated healthcare systems.

Communication of poor prognosis between secondary and primary care: protocol for a systematic review with narrative synthesis

INTRODUCTION

People dying in Britain spend, on average, 3 weeks of their last year of life in hospital. Hospital discharge presents an opportunity for secondary care clinicians to communicate to general practitioners (GPs) which patients may have a poor prognosis. This would allow GPs to prioritise these patients for Advance Care Planning.The objective of this study is to produce a critical overview of research on the communication of poor prognosis between secondary and primary care through a systematic review and narrative synthesis.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will search Medline, EMBASE, CINAHL and the Social Sciences Citation Index for all study types, published since 1 January 2000, and conduct reference-mining of systematic reviews and publications. Study quality will be assessed using the Mixed-Methods Appraisal Tool; a narrative synthesis will be undertaken to integrate and summarise findings.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Approval by research ethics committee is not required since the review only includes published and publicly accessible data. Review findings will inform a qualitative study of the sharing of poor prognosis at hospital discharge. We will publish our findings in a peer-reviewed journal as per Preferred Reporting for Systematic review and Meta-analysis (PRISMA) 2020 guidance.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION

CRD42021236087.

Evaluation of emergency departments visits in patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors

BACKGROUND

The emergency department (ED) is a crucial encounter point in cancer care. Yet, data on the causes of ED visits are limited in patients treated with immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICI). Therefore, we evaluated ED visits in patients treated with ICIs in attempt to determine the predisposing factors.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective chart review on adult cancer patients treated with ICIs for any type of cancer in the Hacettepe University Cancer Center. The data on ED visits after the first dose of ICIs to 6 months after the last cycle of ICIs were collected.

RESULTS

A total of 221 patients were included in the study. The mean age was 58.46 ± 13.87 years, and 65.6% of patients were males. Melanoma was the most common diagnosis (27.6%), followed by kidney and lung cancers. Eighty-three of these patients (37.6%) had at least one emergency department (ED) visit. Most of the ED visits were related to symptoms attributable to the disease burden itself, while immune-related adverse events comprised less than 10% of these visits. While baseline Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, age, polypharmacy, concomitant chemotherapy, eosinophilia, and lactate dehydrogenase levels did not significantly increase the risk, patients with regular opioid use and baseline neutrophilia (> 8000/mm3) had a statistically significant increased risk of visiting the ED (p = 0.001 and 0.19, respectively). These two factors remained significant in the multivariate analyses.

CONCLUSION

In this study, almost 40% of ICI-treated patients had ED visits. Collaboration with other specialties like emergency medicine is vital for improving the care of patients receiving immunotherapy.

Advance care planning in older hospitalised patients following an emergency admission: A mixed methods study

INTRODUCTION

Although advance care planning may be beneficial for older adults in the last year of life, its relevance following an emergency hospitalisation requires further investigation. This study quantifies the one-year mortality outcomes of all emergency admissions for patients aged 70+ years and explores patient views on the value of advance care planning following acute hospitalisation.

METHOD

This mixed methods study used a two-stage approach: firstly, a quantitative longitudinal cohort study exploring the one-year mortality of patients aged 70+ admitted as an emergency to a large multi-centre hospital cohort; secondly, a qualitative semi-structured interview study gathering information on patient views of advance care planning.

RESULTS

There were 14,260 emergency admissions for 70+-year olds over a 12-month period. One-year mortality for admissions across all conditions was 22.6%. The majority of these deaths (59.3%) were within 3 months of admission. Binary logistic regression analysis indicated higher one-year mortality with increasing age and male sex. Interviews with 20 patients resulted in one superordinate theme, "Planning for health and wellbeing in the spectrum of illness". Sub-themes entitled (1) Advance care planning benefitting healthcare for physical and psycho-social health, (2) Contemplation of physical deterioration death and dying and 3) Collaborating with healthcare professionals to undertake advance care planning, suggest that views of advance care planning are shaped by experiences of acute hospitalisation.

CONCLUSION

Since approximately 1 in 5 patients aged 70+ admitted to hospital as an emergency are in the last year of life, acute hospitalisation can act as a trigger for tailored ACP. Older hospitalised patients believe that advance care planning can benefit physical and psychosocial health and that discussions should consider a spectrum of possibilities, from future health to the potential of chronic illness, disability and death. In this context, patients may look for expertise from healthcare professionals for planning their future care.

Views of advance care planning in caregivers of older hospitalised patients following an emergency admission: A qualitative study

This study explores the views of advance care planning in caregivers of older hospitalised patients following an emergency admission. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with eight carers, mostly with a personal relationship to the older patient. Thematic analysis generated three themes: (1) working with uncertainty – it all sounds very fine. . . what is the reality?, (2) supporting the older person – you have to look at it on an individual basis and (3) enabling the process – when you do it properly. The belief that advance care planning can support older individuals and scepticism whether advance care planning can be enabled among social and healthcare challenges are discussed.

A simple prognostic score predicts one-year mortality of alert and calm emergency department patients: A prospective two-center observational study

STUDY OBJECTIVE

To derive and validate a prognostic score to predict 1-year mortality using vital signs, mobility and other variables that are readily available at the bedside at no additional cost.

METHODS

Post hoc analysis of two independent prospective observational studies in two emergency departments, one in Denmark and the other in Switzerland.

PARTICIPANTS

Alert and calm emergency department patients.

MEASUREMENTS

The prediction of mortality from presentation to 365 days by vital signs, mobility and other variables that are readily available at the bedside at no additional cost.

RESULTS

One thousand six hundred and eighteen alert and calm patients were in the Danish cohort and 1331 in the Swiss cohort. Logistic regression identified age >68 years, abnormal vital signs, impaired mobility and the decision to admit as significant predictors of 365-day mortality. A simple prognostic score awarded one point to each of these predictors. Less than two of these predictors were present in 45.6% of patients, and only 0.4% of these patients died within a year. If two or more of these predictors were present, 365-day mortality increased exponentially.

CONCLUSION

Age >68 years, the decision for hospital admission, any vital sign abnormality at presentation and impaired mobility at presentation are equally powerful predictors of 1-year mortality in alert and calm emergency department patients. If validated by others these predictors could be used to discharge patients with confidence since nearly half of these patients had less than two predictors and none of them died within 30 days. However, when two or more predictors were present 365-day mortality increased exponentially.

Advance care planning in patients referred to hospital for acute medical care: Results of a national day of care survey

BACKGROUND

Advance care planning (ACP) is a voluntary process of discussion about future care between an individual and their care provider. ACP is a key focus of national policy as a means to improve patient centered care at the end-of-life. Despite a wide held belief that ACP is beneficial, uptake is sporadic with considerable variation depending on age, ethnicity, location and disease group.

METHODS

This study looked to establish the prevalence of ACP on initial presentation to hospital with a medical emergency within The Society for Acute Medicine Benchmarking Audit (SAMBA18). 123 acute hospitals from across the UK collected data during a day of care survey. The presence of ACP and the presence of 'Do Not Attempt Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation' orders were recorded separately.

FINDINGS

Among 6072 patients presenting with an acute medical emergency, 290 patients (4.8%) had an ACP that was available for the admitting medical team. The prevalence of ACP increased incrementally with age, in patients less than 80 years old the prevalence was 2·9% (95% CI 2·7-3·1) compared with 9·5% (95% CI 9·1-10·0%) in patients aged over 80. In the patients aged over 90 the prevalence of ACP was 12·6% (95% CI 9·8-16·0). ACP was present in 23·3% (95% CI 21.8-24.8%) of patients admitted from institutional care compared with 3·5% (95% CI 3·3-3·7) of patients admitted from home. The prevalence of ACP was 7.1% (95% CI 6·6-7·6) amongst patients re-admitted to the hospital within the previous 30 days.

INTERPRETATION

Very few patients have an ACP that is available to admitting medical teams during an unscheduled hospital admission. Even among patients with advanced age, and who have recently been in hospital, the prevalence of available ACP remains low, in spite of national guidance. Further interventions are needed to ensure that patients' wishes for care are known by providers of acute medical care.

The utility of a shortened palliative care screening tool to predict death within 12 months - a prospective observational study in two south African hospitals with a high HIV burden

Background

Timely identification of people who are at risk of dying is an important first component of end-of-life care. Clinicians often fail to identify such patients, thus trigger tools have been developed to assist in this process. We aimed to evaluate the performance of a identification tool (based on the Gold Standards Framework Prognostic Indicator Guidance) to predict death at 12 months in a population of hospitalised patients in South Africa.

Methods

Patients admitted to the acute medical services in two public hospitals in Cape Town, South Africa were enrolled in a prospective observational study. Demographic data were collected from patients and patient notes. Patients were assessed within two days of admission by two trained clinicians who were not the primary care givers, using the identification tool. Outcome mortality data were obtained from patient folders, the hospital electronic patient management system and the Western Cape Provincial death registry which links a unique patient identification number with national death certificate records and system wide electronic records.

Results

822 patients (median age of 52 years), admitted with a variety of medical conditions were assessed during their admission. 22% of the cohort were HIV-infected. 218 patients were identified using the screening tool as being in the last year of their lives. Mortality in this group was 56% at 12 months, compared with 7% for those not meeting any criteria. The specific indicator component of the tool performed best in predicting death in both HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected patients, with a sensitivity of 74% (68–81%), specificity of 85% (83–88%), a positive predictive value of 56% (49–63%) and a negative predictive value of 93% (91–95%). The hazard ratio of 12-month mortality for those identified vs not was 11.52 (7.87–16.9, p < 0.001).

Conclusions

The identification tool is suitable for use in hospitals in low-middle income country setting that have both a high communicable and non-communicable disease burden amongst young patients, the majority under age 60.