An adaptation of the Framingham coronary heart disease risk function to European Mediterranean areas

Predictive Score for Advanced Colorectal Neoplasia Based on Cardiovascular and Colorectal Cancer Risk Factors

Background and Aims: Cardiovascular disease and colorectal cancer (CRC) are significant health problems and share some risk factors. The aim of our study was to develop and validate a predictive score for advanced colorectal neoplasia (CRN) based on risk factors for cardiovascular disease and CRC. Materials and Methods: A cross-sectional study comprising a derivation cohort and an external validation cohort of 1049 and 308 patients, respectively. A prediction score for advanced CRN (CRNAS: Colorectal Neoplasia Advanced Score) was developed from a logistic regression model, comprising sex, age, first-degree family history for CRC, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, body mass index, diabetes, smoking, and antihypertensive treatment. Other cardiovascular risk scores (Framingham-Wilson, REGICOR, SCORE, and FRESCO) were also used to predict the risk of advanced CRN. The discriminatory capacity of each score was evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC). Results: CRN were found in 379 subjects from the derivation cohort (36%), including 228 patients (22%) with an advanced CRN. Male sex, age, diabetes, and smoking were identified as independent risk factors for advanced CRN. The newly created score (CRNAS) showed an AUC of 0.68 (95% CI: 0.64-0.73) for advanced CRN, which was better than cardiovascular risk scores (p < 0.001). In the validation cohort, the AUC of CRNAS for advanced CRN was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.57-0.76). Conclusions: The newly validated CRNAS has a better discriminatory capacity to predict advanced CRN than cardiovascular scores. It may be useful for selecting candidates for screening colonoscopy, especially in those with cardiovascular risk factors.

Validation of the IberScore model in a primary care population

BACKGROUND

This study aimed to validate the IberScore cardiovascular risk model in a population attended in the primary care setting.

METHODS

A cohort of patients with no history of cardiovascular disease visited in a primary care center during the years 2008 and/or 2009 and followed up until 2018 was selected. Cardiovascular risk was calculated with the IberScore formula for all the subjects of the cohort and the model was calibrated, graphically represented by risk deciles the proportion of expected events and proportion of observed events at 10-year follow-up, stratified by sex. The area under the ROC curve was calculated to assess the discrimination of the model.

RESULTS

A total of 10,085 patients visited during the years 2008 and/or 2009 were included in the study. Men showed a mean 10-year risk of suffering a fatal or non-fatal cardiovascular events according to IberScore of 17.07% (SD 20.13), with a mean estimated vascular age of more than 4 years higher than the biological age; while women had a mean 10-year risk of 7.91% (SD 9.03), with an estimated vascular age of more than 2 years above the biological age. The area under the ROC curve showed a discrimination index of the model of 0.86 (95% CI 0.84-0.88) in men and 0.82 (95% CI 0.79-0.85) in women.

CONCLUSION

IberScore model discriminates well in the population attended in primary care but the model overestimates the risk.

Sex matters in the association between cardiovascular health and incident dementia: evidence from real world data

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular health has been associated with dementia onset, but little is known about the variation of such association by sex and age considering dementia subtypes. We assessed the role of sex and age in the association between cardiovascular risk and the onset of all-cause dementia, Alzheimer's disease, and vascular dementia in people aged 50-74 years.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study covering 922.973 Catalans who attended the primary care services of the Catalan Health Institute (Spain). Data were obtained from the System for the Development of Research in Primary Care (SIDIAP database). Exposure was the cardiovascular risk (CVR) at baseline categorized into four levels of Framingham-REGICOR score (FRS): low (FRS < 5%), low-intermediate (5% ≤ FRS < 7.5%), high-intermediate (7.5% ≤ FRS < 10%), high (FRS ≥ 10%), and one group with previous vascular disease. Cases of all-cause dementia and Alzheimer's disease were identified using validated algorithms, and cases of vascular dementia were identified by diagnostic codes. We fitted stratified Cox models using age parametrized as b-Spline.

RESULTS

A total of 51,454 incident cases of all-cause dementia were recorded over a mean follow-up of 12.7 years. The hazard ratios in the low-intermediate and high FRS groups were 1.12 (95% confidence interval: 1.08-1.15) and 1.55 (1.50-1.60) for all-cause dementia; 1.07 (1.03-1.11) and 1.17 (1.11-1.24) for Alzheimer's disease; and 1.34 (1.21-1.50) and 1.90 (1.67-2.16) for vascular dementia. These associations were stronger in women and in midlife compared to later life in all dementia types. Women with a high Framingham-REGICOR score presented a similar risk of developing dementia - of any type - to women who had previous vascular disease, and at age 50-55, they showed three times higher risk of developing dementia risk compared to the lowest Framingham-REGICOR group.

CONCLUSIONS

We found a dose‒response association between the Framingham-REGICOR score and the onset of all dementia types. Poor cardiovascular health in midlife increased the onset of all dementia types later in life, especially in women.

Sex differences in the applicability of Western cardiovascular disease risk prediction equations in the Asian population

AIMS

Cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) are the most common cause of death, but they can be effectively managed through appropriate prevention and treatment. An important aspect in preventing CVDs is assessing each individual's comprehensive risk profile, for which various risk engines have been developed. The important keys to CVD risk engines are high reliability and accuracy, which show differences in predictability depending on disease status or race. Framingham risk score (FRS) and the atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk equations (ASCVD) were applied to the Korean population to assess their suitability.

METHODS

A retrospective cohort study was conducted using National Health Insurance Corporation sample cohort from 2003 to 2015. The enrolled participants over 30 years of age and without CVD followed-up for 10 years. We compared the prediction performance of FRS and ASCVD and calculated the relative importance of each covariate.

RESULTS

The AUCs of FRS (men: 0.750; women: 0.748) were higher than those of ASCVD (men: 0.718; women: 0.727) for both sexes (Delong test P <0.01). Goodness of fits (GOF) were poor for all models (Chi-square P < 0.001), especially, underestimation of the risk was pronounced in women. When the men's coefficients were applied to women's data, AUC (0.748; Delong test P<0.01) and the GOF (chi-square P = 0.746) were notably improved in FRS. Hypertension was found to be the most influential variable for CVD, and this is one of the reasons why FRS, having the highest relative weight to blood pressure, showed better performance.

CONCLUSION

When applying existing tools to Korean women, there was a noticeable underestimation. To accurately predict the risk of CVD, it was more appropriate to use FRS with men's coefficient in women. Moreover, hypertension was found to be a main risk factor for CVD.

Recalibration of Framingham risk for a local population of Sri Lanka

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular Diseases (CVD) account for the highest number of deaths and disability globally and within Sri Lanka. A CVD risk prediction tool is a simple means of early identification of high-risk groups which is a cost-effective preventive strategy, especially for resource-poor countries. Distribution of risk factor levels varies in different regions even within the same country, thus a common risk estimation tool for the country may give false local predictions. Since there are few published data related to Sri Lanka the aim of this study was to recalibrate the Framingham equation according to the local risk factor profile of a population in the Kurunegala region in Sri Lanka.

METHOD

A cross-sectional study was conducted with the participation of 1 102 persons from the Kurunegala Regional Director of Health Services area and the data was collected using an interviewer-administered questionnaire, anthropometric, blood pressure, and biochemical measurements. CVD risk was estimated using Framingham original and recalibrated CVD risk assessment methods. Current CVD mortality and morbidity data and the recalibration method conducted by the method described by Wilson and colleagues were used for calculations.

RESULTS

Original and recalibrated Framingham CVD risk scores predicted 55.5% (N = 612) and 62.3% (N = 687) to be having less than 10% CVD risk respectively. Further, the original and recalibrated CVD Risk Scores predicted 2.2% (N = 24) and 1.8% (N = 20) to be having CVD risk more than 40% respectively.

CONCLUSION

These findings show an over prediction of the CVD risk with the original Framingham risk calculations which signifies the importance of development of a region-specific risk prediction tool using local risk factor data in Sri Lanka which will prevent unnecessary expenditure to manage people without risk of CVD.

Recalibration of a Non-Laboratory-Based Risk Model to Estimate Pre-Diabetes/Diabetes Mellitus Risk in Primary Care in Hong Kong

INTRODUCTION/OBJECTIVES

A non-laboratory-based pre-diabetes/diabetes mellitus (pre-DM/DM) risk prediction model developed from the Hong Kong Chinese population showed good external discrimination in a primary care (PC) population, but the estimated risk level was significantly lower than the observed incidence, indicating poor calibration. This study explored whether recalibrating/updating methods could improve the model's accuracy in estimating individuals' risks in PC.

METHODS

We performed a secondary analysis on the model's predictors and blood test results of 919 Chinese adults with no prior DM diagnosis recruited from PC clinics from April 2021 to January 2022 in HK. The dataset was randomly split in half into a training set and a test set. The model was recalibrated/updated based on a seven-step methodology, including model recalibrating, revising and extending methods. The primary outcome was the calibration of the recalibrated/updated models, indicated by calibration plots. The models' discrimination, indicated by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC-ROC), was also evaluated.

RESULTS

Recalibrating the model's regression constant, with no change to the predictors' coefficients, improved the model's accuracy (calibration plot intercept: -0.01, slope: 0.69). More extensive methods could not improve any further. All recalibrated/updated models had similar AUC-ROCs to the original model.

CONCLUSION

The simple recalibration method can adapt the HK Chinese pre-DM/DM model to PC populations with different pre-test probabilities. The recalibrated model can be used as a first-step screening tool and as a measure to monitor changes in pre-DM/DM risks over time or after interventions.

Effect of age and dietary habits on Red Blood Cell membrane fatty acids in a Southern Europe population (Basque Country)

The levels of blood eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA) and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) are very variable and, in general, low in most of the world population. In this study, the effects of age, sex, COVID-19, and dietary habits on the lipid profile of the erythrocyte membranes were assessed in a sub-cohort of healthy population (N = 203) from a large cohort of individuals from the Basque Country, Spain, (AKRIBEA). Sex did not have an effect on RBC lipid profile. COVID-19 infected participants showed higher levels of DGLA. Oldest participants showed higher oleic acid, EPA and DHA levels. Arachidonic acid in RBC correlated positively with the intake of sunflower oil, butter, eggs, processed and red meat, whereas DHA and EPA correlated positively with oily and lean fish. Basque Country population showed lipid profiles similar to other high fish consuming countries, such as Italy and Japan. Baseline levels of the whole lipidomic profile of the RBC including SFA, MUFA and PUFA should be examined to obtain a better description of the health and nutritional status.

A Cardiovascular Risk Optimization Program in People With Schizophrenia: A Pilot Randomized Controlled Clinical Trial

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular disease is one of the leading causes of premature death in people with schizophrenia. Some modifiable factors that have been implicated include unhealthy lifestyle, medication side effects, and physical comorbidities. The goal of this study was to assess the efficacy of a 6-month, multifactorial cardiovascular risk intervention to reduce cardiovascular risk (CVR) in people with schizophrenia.

METHODS

We conducted a 2-arm, parallel, randomized clinical trial in a regional mental health center. Participants with at least 1 poorly controlled cardiovascular risk factor (CVRF) (hypertension, diabetes mellitus, hypercholesterolemia, or tobacco smoking) were randomly assigned to the intervention group or to a control group. The subjects in the intervention group received a patient-centered approach that included promoting a healthy lifestyle, pharmacological management of CVRFs, psychotropic drug optimization, and motivational follow-up [Programa d'optimització del RISc CArdiovascular (PRISCA)]. The main outcome was change in CVR as assessed using the Framingham-REGICOR function, after 6 months compared with the baseline in both groups.

RESULTS

Forty-six participants were randomly assigned to the PRISCA group (n=23) or the control group (n=23). The most prevalent CVRFs at baseline were hypercholesterolemia (84.8%) and tobacco smoking (39.1%). The PRISCA group showed a significant reduction in the REGICOR score (-0.96%; 95% CI: -1.60 to -0.32, P=0.011) after 6 months (relative risk reduction of 20.9%), with no significant changes in the control group (0.21%; 95% CI: -0.47 to 0.89, P=0.706). In the PRISCA group, low-density lipoprotein cholesterol also decreased significantly (-27.14 mg/dL; 95% CI: -46.28 to -8.00, P=0.008).

CONCLUSION

A patient-centered, multifactorial cardiovascular risk intervention improved CVR in people with schizophrenia after 6 months, which was achieved mainly by improving the lipid profile.

Cardiometabolic Risk: Characteristics of the Intestinal Microbiome and the Role of Polyphenols

Cardiometabolic diseases like hypertension, type 2 diabetes mellitus, atherosclerosis, and obesity have been associated with changes in the gut microbiota structure, or dysbiosis. The beneficial effect of polyphenols on reducing the incidence of this chronic disease has been confirmed by numerous studies. Polyphenols are primarily known for their anti-inflammatory and antioxidant properties, but they can also modify the gut microbiota. According to recent research, polyphenols positively influence the gut microbiota, which regulates metabolic responses and reduces systemic inflammation. This review emphasizes the prebiotic role of polyphenols and their impact on specific gut microbiota components in patients at cardiometabolic risk. It also analyzes the most recent research on the positive effects of polyphenols on cardiometabolic health. While numerous in vitro and in vivo studies have shown the interaction involving polyphenols and gut microbiota, additional clinical investigations are required to assess this effect in people.

Low adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with increased prevalence and number of atherosclerotic plaques in the ILERVAS cohort

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Current research on the association between dietary patterns and subclinical atherosclerotic disease (SAD) is still limited, and published results are inconsistent and often consist of small population sizes. We aimed to evaluate the association between the Mediterranean diet (MDiet) and SAD in a large cohort of Mediterranean individuals.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study that included 8116 subjects from the ILERVAS cohort. The presence of atherosclerotic plaques (AP) was assessed by ultrasound examination. Adherence to the MDiet was assessed using the 14-item Mediterranean Diet Adherence Score (MEDAS). Inclusion criteria were subjects with at least one cardiovascular risk factor. Exclusion criteria were a clinical history of diabetes, chronic kidney disease, or a prior cardiovascular event. Bivariable and multivariable models were performed.

RESULTS

Compared with subjects without SAD, participants with SAD were older and had a higher frequency of smoking habit, hypertension, dyslipidemia, HbA1c and waist circumference. The adjusted multivariable analysis showed that a higher MEDAS was associated with a lower risk of AP (incidence rate ratios [IRR] 0.97, 95% CI [0.96-0.98]; p<0.001). Furthermore, moderate or high adherence to the MDiet was associated with a lower number of AP compared with a low MDiet adherence (IRR 0.90, 95% CI [0.87-0.94]; p<0.001). In both models, female sex was associated with a lower risk of AP.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings point to a potentially protective role of MDiet for SAD in a Mediterranean population with low-to-moderate cardiovascular risk. Further research is needed to establish a causal relationship between both variables.

Cost-effectiveness of the CNIC-Polypill versus separate monocomponents in cardiovascular secondary prevention in Spain

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Despite advances in treatment, cardiovascular disease is the second leading cause of death in Spain. The objective of this study was to determine the cost-effectiveness of the CNIC-Polypill strategy (acetylsalicylic acid 100 mg, atorvastatin 20/40 mg, ramipril 2.5/5/10 mg) compared with the same separate monocomponents for the secondary prevention of recurrent cardiovascular events in adults in Spain.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A Markov cost-utility model was adapted considering 4 health states (stable, subsequent major adverse cardiovascular event, subsequent ischemic stroke and death) and the SMART risk equation over a lifetime horizon from the perspective of the Spanish National Healthcare System. The CNIC-Polypill strategy was compared with monocomponents in a hypothetical cohort of 1,000 secondary prevention patients. The NEPTUNO study, official databases, and the literature were reviewed to identify effectiveness, epidemiological, costs and utility data. Outcomes were costs (in 2021 euros) per life-year (LY) and quality-adjusted LY (QALY) gained. A 3% discount rate was applied. Deterministic one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses evaluated the robustness of the model.

RESULTS

The CNIC-Polypill strategy in secondary prevention results in more LY (13.22) and QALY (11.64) gains at a lower cost than monocomponents. The CNIC-Polypill is dominant and saves є280.68 per patient compared with monocomponents. The probabilistic sensitivity analysis shows that 82.4% of the simulations are below the threshold of є25,000 per QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

The CNIC-Polypill strategy in secondary cardiovascular prevention is cost-effective compared with the same separate monocomponents, resulting in a cost-saving strategy to the Spanish National Healthcare System.

The Italian Society of Andrology and Sexual Medicine (SIAMS), along with ten other Italian Scientific Societies, guidelines on the diagnosis and management of erectile dysfunction

PURPOSE

Erectile dysfunction (ED) is one of the most prevalent male sexual dysfunctions. ED has been in the past mistakenly considered a purely psycho-sexological symptom by patients and doctors. However, an ever-growing body of evidence supporting the role of several organic factors in the pathophysiological mechanisms underlying ED has been recognized.

METHODS

The Italian Society of Andrology and Sexual Medicine (SIAMS) commissioned an expert task force involving several other National Societies to provide an updated guideline on the diagnosis and management of ED. Derived recommendations were based on the Grading of Recommendations, Assessment, Development, and Evaluation (GRADE) system.

RESULTS

Several evidence-based statements were released providing the necessary up-to-date guidance in the context of ED with organic and psychosexual comorbidities. Many of them were related to incorrect lifestyle habits suggesting how to associate pharmacotherapies and counseling, in a couple-centered approach. Having the oral therapy with phosphodiesterase type 5 inhibitors as the gold standard along with several other medical and surgical therapies, new therapeutic or controversial options were also discussed.

CONCLUSIONS

These are the first guidelines based on a multidisciplinary approach that involves the most important Societies related to the field of sexual medicine. This fruitful discussion allowed for a general agreement on several recommendations and suggestions to be reached, which can support all stakeholders in improving couple sexual satisfaction and overall general health.

Exploring the Role of Sclerostin as a Biomarker of Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality: A Scoping Review

Sclerostin is most recognized for its role in controlling bone formation; however, it is also expressed in the heart, aorta, coronary, and peripheral arteries. Human studies have associated high circulating sclerostin levels with the presence of different cardiovascular diseases (CVD), surrogate CVD markers, and a high risk of cardiovascular events in some populations. However, this is still a matter of scientific debate, as the results have been very heterogeneous among studies. In the present review, the association between serum sclerostin levels and CVD and/or cardiovascular mortality was analyzed. For this purpose, a scoping review was performed in which articles measuring serum sclerostin levels and cardiovascular risk in patients were selected. Eleven articles answered the research question; of these articles, 8/11 evaluated the association between sclerostin and CVD, of which 4/8 found a positive association, 2/8 found a negative association, and 2/8 found no association between variables. Five (5/11) of the articles included in the study evaluated cardiovascular mortality, of which 3/5 found a positive association, 1/5 found a negative association, and 1/5 found no association between variables. In conclusion, we did not find sufficient results to be able to demonstrate an association between elevated sclerostin levels and the development of CVD and/or cardiovascular mortality in the general population due to heterogeneity in the results. However, there seems to be a tendency to consider increased sclerostin levels as a risk factor for both the development of cardiovascular events and cardiovascular mortality in specific populations. Further studies in this field will help to solve some of the inconsistencies found during this scoping review and allow for the future use of sclerostin measurement as a strategy in the prevention and diagnosis of CVD and/or cardiovascular mortality.

Cardiometabolic profile of 15057 elderly Spanish workers: association of sociodemographic variables and tobacco consumption

Background

Aging of the world population is one of the most significant demographic changes of our time. Populations older than 60 years are heterogeneous, and age is an independent cardiovascular risk factor aggravated by frailty, obesity, and diabetes, and influenced by several factors, including sex and socioeconomic status. The objective of this study was to calculate cardiovascular risk in workers of both sexes over 60 years of age and to assess whether there are difference s by sex, social class, smoking, and type of job.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was carried out in 15,057 elderly Spanish workers from different autonomous communities in Spain and with different labor occupations. Anthropometric, sociodemographic, clinical, and laboratory values were determined. People were classified according to age from 60 to 64 years inclusive and from 65 to 69 years, smokers and non-smokers, and both blue-collar and white-collar workers. Subsequently, a multivariate analysis was carried out.

Results

Men, blue-collar workers, smokers, and aging were factors that influenced cardiovascular risk: with an OR of 3.27 (95% CI: 2.64–4.05) in people 65 years of age or older versus the younger group, and an OR of 3.15 (95% CI: 2.69–3.69) in smokers versus non-smokers. A stronger independent association was found between smoking, age, and cardiovascular risk. The risk of developing non-alcoholic fatty liver and liver fibrosis was much higher in men than in women, with an OR of 4.06 (95% CI: 3.66–4.50) for the former and an OR of 2.10 (95% CI: 1.95–2.26) for the BARD index.

Conclusions

The highest risk groups were observed in male subjects with a history of smoking and blue-collar workers and, as such, should be considered for cardiovascular risk screening programs.

Cholesterol and Hypertension Treatment Improve Coronary Risk Prediction but Not Time-Dependent Covariates or Competing Risks

Background and Aims

Cardiovascular (CV) risk functions are the recommended tool to identify high-risk individuals. However, their discrimination ability is not optimal. While the effect of biomarkers in CV risk prediction has been extensively studied, there are no data on CV risk functions including time-dependent covariates together with other variables. Our aim was to examine the effect of including time-dependent covariates, competing risks, and treatments in coronary risk prediction.

Methods

Participants from the REGICOR population cohorts (North-Eastern Spain) aged 35-74 years without previous history of cardiovascular disease were included (n = 8470). Coronary and stroke events and mortality due to other CV causes or to cancer were recorded during follow-up (median = 12.6 years). A multi-state Markov model was constructed to include competing risks and time-dependent classical risk factors and treatments (2 measurements). This model was compared to Cox models with basal measurement of classical risk factors, treatments, or competing risks. Models were cross-validated and compared for discrimination (area under ROC curve), calibration (Hosmer-Lemeshow test), and reclassification (categorical net reclassification index).

Results

Cancer mortality was the highest cumulative-incidence event. Adding cholesterol and hypertension treatment to classical risk factors improved discrimination of coronary events by 2% and reclassification by 7-9%. The inclusion of competing risks and/or 2 measurements of risk factors provided similar coronary event prediction, compared to a single measurement of risk factors.

Conclusion

Coronary risk prediction improves when cholesterol and hypertension treatment are included in risk functions. Coronary risk prediction does not improve with 2 measurements of covariates or inclusion of competing risks.

Association of physical activity with vascular aging in a population with intermediate cardiovascular risk, analysis by sex: MARK study

Background

The aim of this study was to analyze the association of physical activity and its intensity with arterial stiffness and vascular aging and differences by sex in a Spanish population with intermediate cardiovascular risk.

Methods

Cross-sectional study. A total of 2475 individuals aged 35–75 years participated in the study. Brachial–ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) was measured using a VaSera VS-1500^® device. Based on the age and sex percentile presented by the participants, the latter were classified as follows: those with a percentile above 90 and presenting established cardiovascular disease were classified as early vascular aging (EVA); those with a percentile between 10 and 90 were classified as normal vascular aging (NVA) and those with a percentile below 10 were classified as healthy vascular aging (HVA). Physical activity was analyzed through the short version of the Minnesota Leisure Time Physical Activity Questionnaire (MLTPAQ).

Results

The mean age of the participants was 61.34 ± 7.70 years, with 61.60% men. Of the total sample, 86% were sedentary (83% men vs 90% women). The total physical activity showed a negative association with baPWV (β = − 0.045; 95% CI − 0.080 to − 0.009). Intense physical activity showed a negative relationship with baPWV (β = − 0.084; 95% CI − 0.136 to − 0.032). The OR of the total physical activity and the intense physical activity carried out by the subjects classified as NVA with respect to those classified as HVA was OR = 0.946; (95% CI 0.898 to 0.997) and OR = 0.903; (95% CI 0.840 to 0.971), and of those classified as EVA it was OR = 0.916; (95% CI 0.852 to 0.986) and OR = 0.905; (95% CI 0.818 to 1.000). No association was found with moderate- or low-intensity physical activity.

Conclusions

The results of this study suggest that, when intense physical activity is performed, the probability of presenting vascular aging is lower. In the analysis by sex, this association is only observed in men.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13293-022-00456-w.

This study is the first to find a negative association between total physical activity and arterial stiffness and vascular aging in adults with intermediate cardiovascular risk.

This study also shows that the association of physical activity with arterial stiffness and vascular aging in adults with intermediate cardiovascular risk varies depending on its intensity, with a negative association being found only with intense physical activity.

In the analysis by sex, the results found suggest that the association is greater in men.

Cardiovascular Risk Prediction Models and Scores in the Era of Personalized Medicine

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the leading cause of death worldwide. Management of cardiovascular risk factors, particularly hypertension and dyslipidemia, has been shown to reduce cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. However, current guidelines recommend adjusting the intensity of blood pressure- and lipid-lowering treatment according to the cardiovascular risk of the patient. Therefore, cardiovascular risk prediction is a sine qua non for optimizing cardiovascular prevention strategies, particularly in patients without established CVD or type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). As a result, several cardiovascular risk prediction equations have been developed. Nevertheless, it is still unclear which is the optimal prediction risk equation. In the present review, we summarize the current knowledge regarding the accuracy of the most widely used cardiovascular risk prediction equations. Notably, most of these risk scores have not been validated in external cohorts or were shown to over- or underestimate risk in populations other than those in which they derive. Accordingly, country-specific risk scores, where available, should be preferred for cardiovascular risk stratification.

Framingham and American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association Pooled Cohort Equations, High-Sensitivity Troponin T, and N-Terminal Pro-Brain-Type Natriuretic Peptide for Predicting Atherosclerotic Cardiovascular Events Across the Spectrum of Kidney Dysfunction

Background

Contemporary guidelines recommend using atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease screening tools to guide primary prevention. The performance of these scores is not well known in patients with moderate to advanced chronic kidney disease, particularly in combination with clinically available cardiac biomarkers including N‐terminal pro–brain‐type natriuretic peptide and high‐sensitivity troponin T (hsTnT).

Methods and Results

We studied 1027 participants from the Chronic Renal Insufficiency Cohort without self‐reported atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease who were not taking aspirin or statins at enrollment. Framingham Risk Score, Pooled Cohort Equation, N‐terminal pro–brain‐type natriuretic peptide, and hsTnT were measured at baseline. Outcomes included fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, and cardiac death. We calculated 10‐fold cross‐validated Harrell’s C‐indices for each risk score and cardiac biomarker alone and in combination. The C‐index (95% CI) for discrimination of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease was 0.72 (0.67, 0.77) for the Framingham Risk Score, and 0.72 (0.67, 0.76) for the Pooled Cohort Equation. HsTnT had comparable discrimination to each risk score, and improved the discrimination of each (change in Framingham 0.029, 95% CI 0.003, 0.055; change in Pooled Cohort Equation 0.027, 95% CI 0.002, 0.052). N‐terminal pro–brain‐type natriuretic peptide had poorer discrimination than the risk scores and did not significantly improve their discrimination (change in Framingham 0.009, 95% CI −0.001, 0.018; change in Pooled Cohort Equation 0.011, 95% CI −0.001, 0.024).

Conclusions

The Framingham Risk Score and Pooled Cohort Equation demonstrated moderate discrimination for atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease in patients with chronic kidney disease. HsTnT, but not N‐terminal pro–brain‐type natriuretic peptide, improved their discrimination overall. Until chronic kidney disease–specific atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease risk scores can be developed, it may be worth considering how to incorporate hsTnT into existing clinical risk scores.

Occupational and Leisure Physical Activity on Cardiovascular Risk and Body Composition Among Courier Workers

OBJECTIVE

There is some controversy about the beneficial effects of occupational physical activity (OPA) on cardiovascular risk (CVR). The main aim of this study was to explore the effect of the combination of different frequencies of leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and two types of OPA on CVR and body composition, and whether the association between physical activity (PA) and CVR was mediated by visceral adipose tissue (VAT).

METHODS

This cross-sectional study included data from 2516 couriers living in Spain, delivering either by motorbike or foot, and practicing LTPA never, occasionally, or regularly. Couriers were classified into six categories according to LTPA and OPA; body composition was assessed by Bioelectrical Impedance, and CVR by the Framingham equation. General linear models were performed to explore the association between different categories with each outcome (CVR and body composition) and the possible role of VAT as a mediator between PA and CVR.

RESULTS

Compared with the most sedentary group (motorbike couriers that never practice PA), walking couriers who practice regular PA presented the lowest CVR [β -1.58 (95% CI -2.31; -0.85)] and the lowest VAT [β -2.86 (95% CI -3.74; -1.98) followed by the motorbike couriers who practiced regular PA [β -0.51 (95% CI -1.00; -0.03) for CVR and β -2.33 (95% CI -2.91; -1.75) for VAT]. The association between PA and CVR was partially mediated by VAT.

CONCLUSION

The present results indicated that both OPA and LTPA are protective factors for CVR and play an important role on VAT accumulation.

Unbiased plasma proteomics discovery of biomarkers for improved detection of subclinical atherosclerosis

Background

Imaging of subclinical atherosclerosis improves cardiovascular risk prediction on top of traditional risk factors. However, cardiovascular imaging is not universally available. This work aims to identify circulating proteins that could predict subclinical atherosclerosis.

Methods

Hypothesis-free proteomics was used to analyze plasma from 444 subjects from PESA cohort study (222 with extensive atherosclerosis on imaging, and 222 matched controls) at two timepoints (three years apart) for discovery, and from 350 subjects from AWHS cohort study (175 subjects with extensive atherosclerosis on imaging and 175 matched controls) for external validation. A selected three-protein panel was further validated by immunoturbidimetry in the AWHS population and in 2999 subjects from ILERVAS cohort study.

Findings

PIGR, IGHA2, APOA, HPT and HEP2 were associated with subclinical atherosclerosis independently from traditional risk factors at both timepoints in the discovery and validation cohorts. Multivariate analysis rendered a potential three-protein biomarker panel, including IGHA2, APOA and HPT. Immunoturbidimetry confirmed the independent associations of these three proteins with subclinical atherosclerosis in AWHS and ILERVAS. A machine-learning model with these three proteins was able to predict subclinical atherosclerosis in ILERVAS (AUC [95%CI]:0.73 [0.70–0.74], p < 1 × 10⁻⁹⁹), and also in the subpopulation of individuals with low cardiovascular risk according to FHS 10-year score (0.71 [0.69–0.73], p < 1 × 10⁻⁶⁹).

Interpretation

Plasma levels of IGHA2, APOA and HPT are associated with subclinical atherosclerosis independently of traditional risk factors and offers potential to predict this disease. The panel could improve primary prevention strategies in areas where imaging is not available.

Usefulness of Cardiac Computed Tomography in Coronary Risk Prediction: A Five-Year Follow-Up of the SPICA Study (Secure Prevention with Imaging of the Coronary Arteries)

Accurate identification of individuals at high coronary risk would reduce acute coronary syndrome incidence and morbi-mortality. We analyzed the effect on coronary risk prediction of adding coronary artery calcification (CAC) and Segment Involvement Score (SIS) to cardiovascular risk factors. This was a prospective cohort study of asymptomatic patients recruited between 2013–2017. All participants underwent a coronary computed tomography angiography to determine CAC and SIS. The cohort was followed-up for a composite endpoint of myocardial infarction, coronary angiography and/or revascularization (median = five years). Discrimination and reclassification of the REGICOR function with CAC/SIS were examined with the Sommer’s D index and with the Net reclassification index (NRI). Nine of the 251 individuals included had an event. Of the included participants, 94 had a CAC = 0 and 85 a SIS = 0, none of them had an event. The addition of SIS or of SIS and CAC to the REGICOR risk function significantly increased the discrimination capacity from 0.74 to 0.89. Reclassification improved significantly when SIS or both scores were included. CAC and SIS were associated with five-year coronary event incidence, independently of cardiovascular risk factors. Discrimination and reclassification of the REGICOR risk function were significantly improved by both indexes, but SIS overrode the effect of CAC.

The Association of Dietary Intake with Arterial Stiffness and Vascular Ageing in a Population with Intermediate Cardiovascular Risk-A MARK Study

The aim of this study was to analyse the association of diet with arterial stiffness and vascular ageing in a Caucasian population with intermediate cardiovascular risk. We recruited 2475 individuals aged 35–75 years with intermediate cardiovascular risk. Brachial-ankle pulse wave velocity (baPWV) was measured using a VaSera VS-1500^® device. Vascular ageing was defined in two steps. Step 1: The 20 individuals who presented kidney disease, peripheral arterial disease, or heart failure were classified as early vascular ageing (EVA). Step 2: The individuals with percentiles by age and sex above the 90th percentile of baPWV among the participants of this study were classified as EVA, and the rest of the individuals were classified as non-EVA. The diet of the participants was analysed with two questionnaires: (1) the diet quality index (DQI) questionnaire and (2) the Mediterranean diet (MD) adherence questionnaire. The mean age of the sample was 61.34 ± 7.70 years, and 61.60% were men. Adherence to the MD was 53.30%. The DQI was 54.90%. Of the entire sample, 10.70% (11.15% of the men and 9.95% of the women) were EVA. In the multiple linear regression analysis, for each additional point in the DQI questionnaire, there was a decrease of −0.081 (95%CI (confidence intervals) −0.105–−0.028) in baPWV; in the MD adherence questionnaire, there was a decrease of −0.052 (95%CI −0141–−0.008). When performing the analysis, separated by sex, the association remained significant in men but not in women. In the logistic regression analysis, there was an increase in MD adherence and a decrease in the probability of presenting EVA, both with the DQI questionnaire (OR (odds ratio) = 0.65; 95%CI 0.50–0.84) and with the MD adherence questionnaire (OR = 0.75; 95%CI 0.58–0.97). In the analysis by sex, the association was only maintained in men (with DQI, OR = 0.54; 95%CI 0.37–0.56) (with MD, OR = 0.72; 95%CI 0.52–0.99). The results of this study suggest that a greater score in the DQI and MD adherence questionnaires is associated with lower arterial stiffness and a lower probability of presenting EVA. In the analysis by sex, this association is only observed in men.

Determination of Cardiovascular Risk in 56,262 Spanish Construction Workers: Cardiovascular Risk in Construction Workers

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate different cardiovascular risk scales in construction workers.

METHODS

A descriptive, cross-sectional study was carried out in 56,262 Spanish construction workers. Scales of obesity and fatty liver, metabolic syndrome, atherogenic indices, and cardiovascular risk scales, among others, were assessed.

RESULTS

In women, 19.6% were obese, 18.2% hypertensive, 12.6% had metabolic syndrome, 12% were at high risk of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease, and 4.3% were at moderate or high risk on the SCORE scale. In men, 20.1% were obese, 30.1% hypertensive, 17.5% had metabolic syndrome, and 27.6% had high or moderate risk on the SCORE scale.

CONCLUSIONS

Knowing the cardiovascular risk of a large number of construction workers by means of a large number of scales may be of great interest to occupational health professionals, as it may enable them to establish prevention strategies.

Influence of physical activity, the Mediterranean diet and sociodemographic variables on the values of different cardiovascular risk scales

INTRODUCTION: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) continues to be one of the main causes of morbidity and mortality in the world. There are several risk factors for CVD, many of which are preventable, including sedentary lifestyles and poor diet. OBJECTIVE: To assess the influence of physical activity, adherence to the Mediterranean diet and sociodemographic variables such as age, sex and social class on the values of different cardiovascular risk scales. METHODS: A descriptive, cross-sectional study in 1584 Spanish workers in which the influence of different sociodemographic variables (age, sex, social class) and healthy habits (tobacco consumption, physical activity assessed with the IPAQ questionnaire, and adherence to the Mediterranean diet) on the values of different cardiovascular risk (CVR) scales (REGICOR, SCORE, DORICA, ERICE, heart age, and vascular age) was assessed. RESULTS: All the CVR scales showed better mean values as the level of physical activity increased, something similar occurring with the prevalence of altered values, in both sexes. High adherence to the Mediterranean diet also improved the mean values and prevalence of altered values in men and women. CONCLUSION: The Mediterranean diet and physical exercise decrease the probability of suffering a cardiovascular event and improve all the CVR scales analyzed in this study.

Polyphenol intake and cardiovascular risk in the PREDIMED-Plus trial. A comparison of different risk equations

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

Quantification of cardiovascular risk has been based on scores such as Framingham, Framingham-REGICOR, SCORE or Life's Simple 7 (LS7). In vitro, animal, and randomized clinical studies have shown that polyphenols may provide benefits to the vascular system and reduce the inflammatory response. However, some clinical-epidemiological studies have yielded inconsistent results. Our aim was to assess the possible association between intake of the various polyphenol classes and established cardiovascular scores.

METHODS

This cross-sectional analysis involved 6633 PREDIMED-Plus study participants. Food polyphenol content was estimated by a semiquantitative food frequency questionnaire, adjusted for total energy intake according to the residual method. The association between polyphenol intake and cardiovascular risk was tested using linear regression analyses.

RESULTS

Total polyphenol and flavonoid intake were directly and significantly associated only with the LS7 scale. Intake of lignans was directly and significantly associated with SCORE and LS7 scales, stilbene intake with SCORE, and phenolic acid intake with Framingham and Framingham-REGICOR scores. Other polyphenol classes were associated in a protective and significant manner in Framingham, SCORE and LS7 scores. In women, intake of all the polyphenol classes, except phenolic acids, showed a protective trend in the results of the Framingham, Framingham-REGICOR scores and LS7 scale.

CONCLUSIONS

An inverse association was found between consumption of the 'other polyphenols' class and, especially among women, with estimated cardiovascular risk. The results were similar to those of Framingham, Framingham-REGICOR and LS7 (after eliminating the diet component) and differed from those of SCORE, but the predictors included were limited in the latter case.

Place of cardiovascular risk prediction models in South Asians; agreement between Framingham risk score and WHO/ISH risk charts

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

There are no cardiovascular risk prediction models developed in South Asian cohorts. Therefore, different risk models not validated in South Asians are being used. We aimed to compare cardiovascular risk predictions of Framingham risk score (FRS) and World Health Organization/International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) charts for agreement in a sample of South Asians.

METHODS

Ten-year cardiovascular risk predictions of patients without previous cardiovascular diseases attending a non-communicable disease clinic were calculated using FRS (with BMI and with cholesterol) and WHO/ISH charts (with and without cholesterol). Patients were categorised into low (<20%) and high (≥20%) cardiovascular risk groups on risk predictions. Agreement in risk categorisation with different prediction models was compared using Cohen's kappa coefficient (κ).

RESULTS

One hundred sixty-nine patients (females 130 (81.1%)) mean age 65 ± 6.9 years were studied. Of the participants, 80 (47.3%), 62 (36.7%), 18 (10.7%), 16 (9.5%), were predicted high risk by FRS BMI-based, FRS cholesterol-based, WHO/ISH without-cholesterol and WHO/ISH with-cholesterol models, respectively. Agreement between the two FRS models (κ = 0.736, P < .0001) and the two WHO/ISH models (κ = 0.804, P < .0001) in stratifying patients into high and low-risk groups, was "good." However, the agreements between FRS BMI-based and WHO/ISH without-cholesterol models (κ = 0.234, P < .0001) and FRS cholesterol-based and WHO/ISH with-cholesterol models (κ = 0.306, P < .0001) were only "fair."

CONCLUSION

Cardiovascular risk predictions of FRS were higher than WHO/ISH charts and the agreement in risk stratification was not satisfactory in Sri Lankans. Therefore, different cardiovascular risk prediction models should not be used interchangeably in the follow-up of South Asians.

Validation of the World Health Organization/ International Society of Hypertension (WHO/ISH) cardiovascular risk predictions in Sri Lankans based on findings from a prospective cohort study

Introduction and objectives

There are no cardiovascular (CV) risk prediction models for Sri Lankans. Different risk prediction models not validated for Sri Lankans are being used to predict CV risk of Sri Lankans. We validated the WHO/ISH (SEAR-B) risk prediction charts prospectively in a population-based cohort of Sri Lankans.

Method

We selected 40–64 year-old participants from the Ragama Medical Officer of Health (MOH) area in 2007 by stratified random sampling and followed them up for 10 years. Ten-year risk predictions of a fatal/non-fatal cardiovascular event (CVE) in 2007 were calculated using WHO/ISH (SEAR-B) charts with and without cholesterol. The CVEs that occurred from 2007–2017 were ascertained. Risk predictions in 2007 were validated against observed CVEs in 2017.

Results

Of 2517 participants, the mean age was 53.7 year (SD: 6.7) and 1132 (45%) were males. Using WHO/ISH chart with cholesterol, the percentages of subjects with a 10-year CV risk <10%, 10–19%, 20%-29%, 30–39%, ≥40% were 80.7%, 9.9%, 3.8%, 2.5% and 3.1%, respectively. 142 non-fatal and 73 fatal CVEs were observed during follow-up. Among the cohort, 9.4% were predicted of having a CV risk ≥20% and 8.6% CVEs were observed in the risk category. CVEs were within the predictions of WHO/ISH charts with and without cholesterol in both high (≥20%) and low(<20%) risk males, but only in low(<20%) risk females. The predictions of WHO/ISH charts, with-and without-cholesterol were in agreement in 81% of subjects (ĸ = 0.429; p<0.001).

Conclusions

WHO/ISH (SEAR B) risk prediction charts with-and without-cholesterol may be used in Sri Lanka. Risk charts are more predictive in males than in females and for lower-risk categories. The predictions when stratifying into 2 categories, low risk (<20%) and high risk (≥20%), are more appropriate in clinical practice.

Carotid atherosclerosis in virologically suppressed HIV patients: comparison with a healthy sample and prediction by cardiovascular risk equations

OBJECTIVES

To compare the prevalence of carotid atherosclerosis in virologically suppressed HIV patients with that of a community sample, and to evaluate the capacity of various cardiovascular risk (CVR) equations for predicting carotid atherosclerosis.

METHODS

This was a cross-sectional study with two randomly selected groups: HIV patients from an HIV unit and a control group drawn from the community. Participants were matched by age (30-80 years) and sex without history of cardiovascular disease. Carotid plaque, common carotid intima-media thickness (cc-IMT) and subclinical atherosclerosis (carotid plaque and/or cc-IMT > 75^th percentile) were assessed by carotid ultrasound. The Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation (SCORE), Framingham, REGICOR, reduced Data Collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D), and COMVIH equations were applied, and their abilities to predict carotid plaque were compared using the area under the curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Each group included 379 subjects (77.8% men, age 49.7 years). Duration of antiretroviral therapy was 15.5 years. There were no differences between the groups for carotid plaque (HIV, 33.2%; control, 31.3%), mean cc-IMT (HIV, 0.63 mm; control, 0.61 mm) or subclinical atherosclerosis (HIV, 42.9%; control, 47.9%). Thymidine analogues were independently associated with subclinical atherosclerosis in HIV-infected patients. CVR equations revealed AUCs between 0.715 and 0.807 for prediction of carotid plaque; prediction was better in the control group and did not improve when HIV-adapted scales were used.

CONCLUSIONS

The features of carotid atherosclerosis did not differ between the HIV-infected and the control group, although CVR equations were more predictive for carotid plaque in controls than in HIV-infected patients. HIV-specific equations did not improve prediction.

Developing and validating an individualized breast cancer risk prediction model for women attending breast cancer screening

BACKGROUND

Several studies have proposed personalized strategies based on women's individual breast cancer risk to improve the effectiveness of breast cancer screening. We designed and internally validated an individualized risk prediction model for women eligible for mammography screening.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study of 121,969 women aged 50 to 69 years, screened at the long-standing population-based screening program in Spain between 1995 and 2015 and followed up until 2017. We used partly conditional Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate the adjusted hazard ratios (aHR) and individual risks for age, family history of breast cancer, previous benign breast disease, and previous mammographic features. We internally validated our model with the expected-to-observed ratio and the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve.

RESULTS

During a mean follow-up of 7.5 years, 2,058 women were diagnosed with breast cancer. All three risk factors were strongly associated with breast cancer risk, with the highest risk being found among women with family history of breast cancer (aHR: 1.67), a proliferative benign breast disease (aHR: 3.02) and previous calcifications (aHR: 2.52). The model was well calibrated overall (expected-to-observed ratio ranging from 0.99 at 2 years to 1.02 at 20 years) but slightly overestimated the risk in women with proliferative benign breast disease. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ranged from 58.7% to 64.7%, depending of the time horizon selected.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed a risk prediction model to estimate the short- and long-term risk of breast cancer in women eligible for mammography screening using information routinely reported at screening participation. The model could help to guiding individualized screening strategies aimed at improving the risk-benefit balance of mammography screening programs.

[Cancer and cardiovascular risk]

Cancer survivors have lower long-term survival, in part due to increased cardiovascular disease (CVD). Up to 30% of the deaths of patients with cancer may be due to cardiovascular causes. Cancer can cause atherosclerosis by different mechanisms, the most frequent being the sequelae of antitumour drugs, radiotherapy, and haematopoietic cell transplantation. Cardiovascular risk factors are prevalent in cancer survivors. These patients should be considered at high cardiovascular risk. It is advisable to recommend healthy lifestyle habits and strict control of risk factors. There is an immediate need to expand the availability of cardiovascular preventive services to reduce the late adverse effects of chemotherapy and radiation. Early intervention could help improve cardiovascular risk profile.

Cardiovascular Risk Estimates in Ten Years in the Brazilian Population, a Population-Based Study

BACKGROUND

Cardiovascular diseases are the leading cause of morbidity and mortality, resulting in high health costs and significant economic losses. The Framingham score has been widely used to stratify the cardiovascular risk of the individuals, identifying those at higher risk for the implementation of prevention measures directed to this group.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate cardiovascular risk at 10 years in the adult Brazilian population.

METHODS

Cross-sectional study using laboratory data from a subsample of the National Health Survey. To calculate cardiovascular risk, the Framingham score stratified by sex was used.

RESULTS

Most women (58.4%) had low cardiovascular risk, 32.9% had medium risk and 8.7% had high risk. Among men, 36.5% had low cardiovascular risk, 41.9% had medium risk and 21.6% had high risk. The risk increased with age and was high in the low-educated population. The proportion of the components of the Framingham model, by risk and sex, shows that, among women at high risk, the indicators that mostly contributed to cardiovascular risk were: systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL, diabetes and tobacco. Among men, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, HDL, tobacco and diabetes.

CONCLUSION

The study estimates, for the first time in Brazil, the risk of developing cardiovascular disease in ten years. The risk score is useful to support the prevention practices of these diseases, considering the clinical and epidemiological context.

Monocyte subtype counts are associated with 10-year cardiovascular disease risk as determined by the Framingham Risk Score among subjects of the LIFE-Adult study

Coronary heart disease, an inflammatory disease, is the leading cause of death globally. White blood cell counts (including monocytes) are easily available biomarkers of systemic inflammation. Monocyte subtypes can be measured by flow cytometry and classified into classical (CD14^high, CD16^neg), intermediate (CD14^high, CD16⁺) and non-classical (CD14⁺, CD16^high) with distinct functional properties. The goal of this study was to investigate the association of monocyte total count and its subtypes with cardiovascular risk groups defined by the Framingham Risk Score, which is used to estimate the 10-year risk of developing myocardial infarction or predict mortality following coronary heart disease. We also aimed to investigate whether monocyte counts are associated with relevant cardiovascular risk factors not included in the Framingham Risk Score, such as carotid atherosclerotic plaque and intima-media thickness. Our data came from the LIFE-Adult study, a population-based cohort study of 10,000 randomly selected participants in Leipzig, Germany. Data was gathered using self-administered questionnaires and physical examinations. Carotid plaques and intima-media thickness were measured using carotid artery sonography. Monocyte subtypes in blood were determined by 10-color flow cytometry for a total of 690 individuals. In a multivariate regression analysis adjusting for the risk factors BMI, intima-media thickness, presence of carotid plaques and diabetes mellitus, monocyte subtypes and total count were found to be significantly associated with the dichotomized Framingham Risk Score (≥10% versus <10%): Odds ratios [95% confidence interval] for monocyte subtypes: classical: 11.19 [3.79–34.26]; intermediate: 2.27 [1.11–4.71]; non-classical: 4.18 [1.75–10.20]; total: 14.59 [4.61–47.95]. In absence of prospective data, the FRS was used as a surrogate for CHD. Our results indicate that monocyte counts could provide useful predictive value for cardiovascular disease risk.

Cardiovascular risk and validation of cardiovascular risk prediction functions in a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes followed for 10 years in Badajoz (SPAIN). AN observational study

AIMS

To analyse whether diabetes behaves as an equivalent of coronary risk and assess the performance of the original and REGICOR Framingham functions in a cohort of patients with type 2 diabetes observed for 10 years in primary care practices in Badajoz, Spain.

METHODS

Observational, longitudinal study. A total of 643 patients (mean age 64.0 years, 55.7% women), without evidence of cardiovascular disease were studied. We assessed the incidence of cardiovascular events and the patients' 10-year coronary risk predicted-values at the time of their recruitment.

RESULT

The actual incidence rate of coronary events was 14.5% (15.1% in women and 13.7% in men, p = 0.616). Patients who suffered coronary events were older (66.3 vs 63.6 years, p < 0.05), had higher total cholesterol (236.3 vs 219.5 mg/dl, p < 0.01), fasting plasma glucose levels (177.6 vs 159.8 mg/dl, p < 0.01), glycated haemoglobin (7.3 vs 6.7%, p < 0.05) and also higher prevalence of high blood pressure, dyslipidemia and chronic renal disease. The original Framingham equation overpredicted risk by 88%, whereas the REGICOR Framingham function underpredicted risk by 24%.

CONCLUSIONS

Diabetes in our cohort does not behave as a coronary heart disease equivalent and both the original and REGICOR Framingham coronary risk functions have little utility in a diabetic population.

Subclinical atheromatosis localization and burden in a low-to-moderate cardiovascular risk population: the ILERVAS study

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

There is a discrepancy between risk assessment based on cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) and atheromatosis burden. The objective was to identify the prevalence of subclinical diseases with common risk factors, such as atheromatosis, occult kidney disease, prediabetes, and diabetes in a middle-aged population with low-to-moderate cardiovascular risk; to assess the vascular distribution, and severity of subclinical atheromatosis.

METHODS

Randomized, interventional, longitudinal clinical trial. The intervention consisted of vascular ultrasound examination in the carotid and femoral arteries assessing 12 territories, combined with clinical, anthropometric, lifestyle, and biochemical parameters. Inclusion criteria consisted of women (aged 50-70 years) and men (aged 45-65 years) with at least 1 CVRF. Exclusion criteria consisted of a clinical history of diabetes, chronic kidney disease, or a prior CV event. Here, baseline characteristics of the ILERVAS cohort are shown.

RESULTS

A total of 8330 middle-aged asymptomatic participants, 50.7% women, were enrolled. The presence of 1-2 CVRF was found in 74.8% and adherence to the Mediterranean diet was low in 52.8%. Several previously unknown chronic diseases were diagnosed, such as dyslipidemia (21.1%), hypertension (15.3%), kidney disease (15.4%), obesity (10.6%), and diabetes (2.3%). Subclinical atheromatosis was found in 71.4% of participants, localized in common femoral (54.5%), carotid bifurcation (41.1%) and internal carotid (22%). Intermediate atheromatosis (2-3 territories with atheroma plaque) was found in 32.6%, and generalized atheromatosis (>3 territories) in 19.7. Total plaque area was higher in men (0.97 cm² vs 0.58 cm², P<.001). Total plaque area was also higher in the femoral artery, and increased with the number of CVRF.

CONCLUSIONS

Subclinical atheromatosis was highly prevalent in a middle-aged population with low-to moderate cardiovascular risk, with 1 in 5 participants having generalized atheromatosis. ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT03228459.

Bariatric surgery and LDL cholesterol (BASALTO) trial study protocol: randomised controlled study evaluating the effect of gastric bypass versus sleeve gastrectomy on high LDL cholesterol

INTRODUCTION

Observational studies have shown gastric bypass to be superior to sleeve gastrectomy in terms of low-density lipoprotein (LDL) cholesterol improvement. If these results are confirmed in randomised controlled trials, presurgical LDL cholesterol status could be a relevant factor in surgical procedure election. Furthermore, it is also necessary to establish the mechanisms by which LDL cholesterol improves after surgery and whether qualitative and quantitative changes occur in the different lipoprotein subclasses. The first objective is to ascertain whether high LDL cholesterol levels before surgery can be considered an additional factor when selecting the most appropriate surgical procedure for each patient (gastric bypass or sleeve gastrectomy). Hence, the 1-year remission rates of high LDL cholesterol after gastric bypass and sleeve gastrectomy in patients with morbid obesity will be compared. Secondary objectives were (1) to compare changes in other lipoproteins and LDL composition and (2) to study the pathophysiologic mechanisms related to LDL cholesterol remission.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

A randomised clinical trial, with intention-to-treat analysis, will be conducted to compare LDL cholesterol remission between gastric bypass and sleeve gastrectomy, with a 12-month follow-up. Inclusion criteria will be patients between 18 and 60 years of age with body mass index ≥40 kg/m² or ≥35 kg/m² with significant obesity-related comorbidity and high LDL cholesterol levels. Patients will be evaluated preoperatively and at 3, 6 and 12 months after bariatric surgery. Examinations will include routine blood chemistry, anthropometric measurements, food intake recall, physical activity questionnaires and serum samples for lipidomic and lipoprotein characterisation.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval has been granted by the Parc de Salut Mar Ethics Committee (2019/8471/I). The study and its conclusions regarding the primary and secondary objectives will be presented as manuscripts submitted for peer-reviewed journal publication.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT03975478.

Association of Circulating microRNAs with Coronary Artery Disease and Usefulness for Reclassification of Healthy Individuals: The REGICOR Study

Risk prediction tools cannot identify most individuals at high coronary artery disease (CAD) risk. Oxidized low-density lipoproteins (oxLDLs) and microRNAs are actively involved in atherosclerosis. Our aim was to examine the association of CAD and oxLDLs-induced microRNAs, and to assess the microRNAs predictive capacity of future CAD events. Human endothelial and vascular smooth muscle cells were treated with oxidized/native low-density lipoproteins, and microRNA expression was analyzed. Differentially expressed and CAD-related miRNAs were examined in serum samples from (1) a case-control study with 476 myocardial infarction (MI) patients and 487 controls, and (2) a case-cohort study with 105 incident CAD cases and 455 randomly-selected cohort participants. MicroRNA expression was analyzed with custom OpenArray plates, log rank tests and Cox regression models. Twenty-one microRNAs, two previously undescribed (hsa-miR-193b-5p and hsa-miR-1229-5p), were up- or down-regulated upon cell treatment with oxLDLs. One of the 21, hsa-miR-122-5p, was also upregulated in MI cases (fold change = 4.85). Of the 28 CAD-related microRNAs tested, 11 were upregulated in MI cases-1 previously undescribed (hsa-miR-16-5p)-, and 1/11 was also associated with CAD incidence (adjusted hazard ratio = 0.55 (0.35–0.88)) and improved CAD risk reclassification, hsa-miR-143-3p. We identified 2 novel microRNAs modulated by oxLDLs in endothelial cells, 1 novel microRNA upregulated in AMI cases compared to controls, and one circulating microRNA that improved CAD risk classification.

Erectile dysfunction and cardiovascular risk: a review of current findings

Introduction: A large body of evidence has clearly documented that erectile dysfunction (ED) represents not only a complication of cardiovascular (CV) diseases (CVD) but often an early sign of forthcoming CVD.Areas covered: All the available data from meta-analyses evaluating the association between ED and CV risk were collected and discussed. Similarly, all available meta-analyses investigating the significance of ED as a possible early marker for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) were analyzed. In addition, data originally obtained in a Florence cohort, dealing with a large series of patients seeking medical care for sexual dysfunction, will be also reported.Expert opinion: Available evidence indicates that ED represents a risk factor of CV mortality and morbidity. Not only conventional CV risk factors but also unconventional ones, derived from a perturbation of the relational and intrapsychic domains of ED, might play a possible role in CV risk stratification of ED subjects. Finally, penile doppler ultrasound can give important information on CV risk, especially in younger and low risk subjects. The presence of ED should become an opportunity - for the patient and for the physician - to screen for the presence of comorbidities improving not only sexual health but, more importantly, men's overall health.

Cardiovascular risk reduction following metabolic and bariatric surgery

Cardiovascular disease (CVD) is the world’s leading cause of mortality and obesity is a well-recognized risk factor of CVD. Early detection and management of CVD is critical to reduce CVD risk. Especially in patients suffering from obesity with obesity-related CVD risk factors such as hypertension (HTN), dyslipidemia, and diabetes mellitus (DM). A substantial and sustained decrease in body weight after metabolic and bariatric surgery is associated with a significant reduction of cardiovascular risk factors. This article reviews CVD risk models, mechanisms of CVD risk associated with obesity, and overall CVD risk reduction between different metabolic and bariatric procedures.

Derivation and validation of SIDIAP-FHP score: A new risk model predicting cardiovascular disease in familial hypercholesterolemia phenotype

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Assessment of individual cardiovascular risk, distinguishing primary and secondary prevention, would improve the clinical management of the population with familial hypercholesterolemia. We aimed to develop and validate two risk functions to predict incident and recurrent atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) in a primary care-based population with familial hypercholesterolemia phenotype (FHP), and to compare their predictive capacity with that of the SpAnish Familial hypErcHolEsterolemiA cohoRT (SAFEHEART) risk equation (SAFEHEART-RE).

METHODS

Data from the Catalan primary care system database (SIDIAP) of patients ≥18 years old with FHP in 2006-2013 were used to develop and validate two risk functions to predict incident and recurrent ASCVD. A validation dataset was also used to compare the model predictive capacity to that of SAFEHEART-RE.

RESULTS

The new model (SIDIAP-FHP) included age, diabetes, smoking, sex (male), hypertension, and baseline low-density lipoprotein cholesterol in the primary prevention cohort and age, diabetes, smoking, and disease characteristics (progressive, recent, polyvascular, or included myocardial infarction) in the secondary prevention cohort. The models demonstrated a fair fit: C-Statistic: 0.71 (95%CI:0.68-0.75) in primary prevention and 0.65 (95%CI:0.60-0.70) in secondary prevention (higher than that of SAFEHEART-RE: 0.64 [95%CI:0.60-0.68] and 0.55 [95%CI:0.51-0.59], respectively; both p < 0.01). The Brier scores obtained with the SIDIAP-FHP score were significantly lower than that obtained with SAFEHEART-RE in both the primary and secondary prevention cohorts.

CONCLUSIONS

The SIDIAP-FHP score provides accurate ASCVD risk estimates for primary and secondary prevention in the FHP population, with better predictive capacity than that of SAFEHEART-RE in this general population, especially in persons with previous ASCVD.

Estimation of Lifetime Risk of Cardiovascular Disease (IBERLIFERISK): A New Tool for Cardiovascular Disease Prevention in Primary Care

INTRODUCTION AND OBJECTIVES

To develop a predictive function of lifetime cardiovascular risk, including morbidity and mortality, in a healthy working population in Spain.

METHODS

Retrospective cohort study. We selected healthy workers, aged 18 to 65 years, with no history of cardiovascular disease, who underwent a health assessment between 2004 and 2007. We used 70% of the cohort to develop the risk equation, and the remaining 30% to validate the equation. Four Cox proportional hazards models were constructed using cardiovascular events and competing events as dependent variables. The same models were replicated for men and women separately. Fatal and nonfatal events were assessed until 2014.

RESULTS

A total of 762 054 individuals were selected. The mean age was 35.48 years and 71.14% were men. Significant risk variables in the model included manual occupations, being a smoker or exsmoker, diabetes mellitus, antihypertensive treatment, systolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, and lipid-lowering treatment; in men, the model also included alcohol consumption, body mass index, a family history of early coronary disease in first-degree relatives, renal failure, and diastolic blood pressure. The area under the curve receiver operating characteristic was 0.84 (95%CI, 0.82-0.85) in men and 0.73 (95%CI, 0.66-0.80) in women. Calibration showed underestimation in low-risk deciles and overestimation in high-risk deciles.

CONCLUSIONS

The new lifetime cardiovascular risk model has satisfactory discrimination and calibration, with better results in men than in women.

Capacity adiposity indices to identify metabolic syndrome in subjects with intermediate cardiovascular risk (MARK study)

BACKGROUND

Obesity increases mortality, and is linked to cardiovascular diseases and metabolic syndrome (MetS). Therefore, the purpose of this study was to analyze the ability of different adiposity indices to identify subjects with MetS among people with intermediate cariovascular risk.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The cross-sectional study involved 2478 subjects, recruited by the MARK study. Adiposity measures: general adiposity by body mass index (BMI), central adiposity by waist-to-height ratio (WHtR), fat mass percent by the Clínica Universidad de Navarra-body adiposity estimator (CUN-BAE), percentage of body fat and of visceral adipose tissue by body roundness index (BRI) and visceral obesity and general adiposity with body shape index (ABSI). The diagnosis of MetS was made in accordance with the criteria established in the international consensus of the Joint Scientific Statement National Cholesterol Education Program III.

RESULTS

The highest correlation coefficients were obtained by the glycemic components (HbA1c and FPG) of the MetS and ranged from 0.155 to 0.320. The exception was ABSI, which showed lower values in the global analysis and in the males. Values of the area under the ROC curve with the adiposity indices ranged from 0.773 with the BMI in males to 0.567 with ABSI in males. In the logistic regression analysis, all adiposity factors, except ABSI, showed similar OR values of MetS after adjusting for possible confounding factors. In the global analysis, the adiposity index that showed a highest OR of MetS was CUN-BAE (OR 5.50; 95% CI 4.27-7.09). In the analysis by gender, the highest ORs were BMI in males (OR 5.98; 95% CI 4.70-7.60) and both WHtR and BRI in females (OR 4.15; 95% CI 3.09-5.58).

CONCLUSION

All adiposity indices, except for ABSI, show an association with MetS and similar ability to detect subjects with MetS among people with intermediate cariovascular risk.

Trends of Cardiovascular Risk Factors in Patients With Acute Myocardial Infarction: Soroka Acute Myocardial Infarction II (SAMI II) Project

CONCLUSIONS

The last decade, patients with AMI became older with increased burden of CVRFs. Framingham risk score increased among patients with NSTEMI and decreased in patients with STEMI. These trends impact on risk stratification and secondary prevention programs.

Cardiovascular disease risk and comparison of different strategies for blood pressure management in rural India

BACKGROUND

Non-optimal blood pressure (BP) levels are a major cause of disease burden globally. We describe current BP and treatment patterns in rural India and compare different approaches to BP lowering in this setting.

METHODS

All individuals aged ≥40 years from 54 villages in a South Indian district were invited and 62,194 individuals (84%) participated in a cross-sectional study. Individual 10-year absolute cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk was estimated using WHO/ISH charts. Using known effects of treatment, proportions of events that would be averted under different paradigms of BP lowering therapy were estimated.

RESULTS

After imputation of pre-treatment BP levels for participants on existing treatment, 76·9% (95% confidence interval, 75.7-78.0%), 5·3% (4.9-5.6%), and 17·8% (16.9-18.8%) of individuals had a 10-year CVD risk defined as low (< 20%), intermediate (20-29%), and high (≥30%, established CVD, or BP > 160/100 mmHg), respectively. Compared to the 19.6% (18.4-20.9%) of adults treated with current practice, a slightly higher or similar proportion would be treated using an intermediate (23·2% (22.0-24.3%)) or high (17·9% (16.9-18.8%) risk threshold for instituting BP lowering therapy and this would avert 87·2% (85.8-88.5%) and 62·7% (60.7-64.6%) more CVD events over ten years, respectively. These strategies were highly cost-effective relative to the current practice.

CONCLUSION

In a rural Indian community, a substantial proportion of the population has elevated CVD risk. The more efficient and cost-effective clinical approach to BP lowering is to base treatment decisions on an estimate of an individual's short-term absolute CVD risk rather than with BP based strategy.

CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION

Clinical Trials Registry of India CTRI/2013/06/003753 , 14 June 2013.