Disability outcome measures in therapeutic trials of relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: effects of heterogeneity of disease course in placebo cohorts

Autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation for treatment of multiple sclerosis and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder - recommendations from ECTRIMS and the EBMT

Autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation (AHSCT) is a treatment option for relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS) that are refractory to disease-modifying therapy (DMT). AHSCT after failure of high-efficacy DMT in aggressive forms of relapsing-remitting MS is a generally accepted indication, yet the optimal placement of this approach in the treatment sequence is not universally agreed upon. Uncertainties also remain with respect to other indications, such as in rapidly evolving, severe, treatment-naive MS, progressive MS, and neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD). Furthermore, treatment and monitoring protocols, rehabilitation and other supportive care before and after AHSCT need to be optimized. To address these issues, we convened a European Committee for Treatment and Research in Multiple Sclerosis Focused Workshop in partnership with the European Society for Blood and Marrow Transplantation Autoimmune Diseases Working Party, in which evidence and key questions were presented and discussed by experts in these diseases and in AHSCT. Based on the workshop output and subsequent written interactions, this Consensus Statement provides practical guidance and recommendations on the use of AHSCT in MS and NMOSD. Recommendations are based on the available evidence, or on consensus when evidence was insufficient. We summarize the key evidence, report the final recommendations, and identify areas for further research.

The epidemiology, pathology and pathogenesis of MS: Therapeutic implications

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic, and potentially disabling, inflammatory disease of the central nervous system (CNS). MS is generally characterized by recurrent, and self-limited, episodes of neurological dysfunction, which occur unpredictably and often result in multifocal tissue injury within the CNS. Currently, women are affected two to three times as often as men although this may not have been the case during earlier Time-Periods. The pathogenesis of MS is known to involve both critical genetic and environmental mechanisms. Nevertheless, in addition to these two mechanisms, disease-pathogenesis also involves a "truly" random event. Indeed, it is this random mechanism, which is responsible for the currently-observed (and increasing) excess of women among patients with MS. This review summarizes the current state of knowledge regarding the pathogenesis of MS (includong its epidemiology, pathology, and genetics) and considers the therapeutic implications that these pathogenetic mechanisms have both for our currently available therapies as well as for the possible therapeutic approaches to the management of this potentially disabling condition in the future.

Utility of Progression Independent of Relapse Activity as a Trial Outcome in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Progression independent of relapse activity (PIRA) is increasingly used as a measure of disability worsening in multiple sclerosis (MS) and is believed to reflect the more chronic neurodegenerative aspect of MS. However, while conceptually appealing, PIRA and its counterpart relapse-associated worsening (RAW) have not been validated as outcome measures for clinical trials. Here, we study the co-occurrence of MRI activity in patients experiencing PIRA and RAW in a clinical trial setting. To illustrate the problem of random variation and measurement error of these new outcomes, we contrasted PIRA and RAW with similarly defined improvement.

METHODS

We reanalyzed individual patient-level data of AFFIRM (NCT00027300) and SENTINEL (NCT00030966), 2 multicenter randomized controlled trials investigating natalizumab compared with interferon beta or placebo in RRMS, with trial visits occurring every 3 months for 2 years. We calculated 3-month-confirmed disability worsening (3M-CDW), RAW, and PIRA events based on worsening on the Expanded Disability Status Scale, 9-hole peg test, or timed 25-foot walk for every trial visit. We related worsening and improvement events to MRI activity throughout follow-up and contrasted worsening of disability with similarly defined improvement.

RESULTS

Our analysis included 2,113 participants, 42.4% of whom developed radiologic disease activity during follow-up. Only 8% of participants had a 3M-CDW event. Although the majority of those 3M-CDW events were PIRA (6.8%) and not RAW (0.9%), 42.2% of participants with PIRA had MRI activity in the first year of follow-up and 30.9% in the second. Improvement events exceeded PIRA events throughout follow-up and occurred in all trial arms. Finally, there was no difference in time-to-PIRA between participants with and without radiologic disease activity.

DISCUSSION

PIRA and RAW in their current definitions do not reliably distinguish between disability worsening due to inflammatory disease activity and neurodegeneration in RRMS. In addition, PIRA and RAW have similar and troubling issues of random variation and measurement error as currently used trial outcome measures. Our analysis requires confirmation in other clinical data sets; a meaningful next step would be to study the co-occurrence of PIRA with radiologic disease activity in a setting with more comprehensive MRI monitoring.

Relapse recovery in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: An analysis of the CombiRx dataset

BACKGROUND

Clinical relapses are the defining feature of relapsing forms of multiple sclerosis (MS), but relatively little is known about the time course of relapse recovery.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to investigate the time course of and patient factors associated with the speed and success of relapse recovery in people with relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS).

METHODS

Using data from CombiRx, a large RRMS trial (clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT00211887), we measured the time to recovery from the first on-trial relapse. We used Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and Cox regression models to investigate the association of patient factors with the time to unconfirmed and confirmed relapse recovery.

RESULTS

CombiRx included 1008 participants. We investigated 240 relapses. Median time to relapse recovery was 111 days. Most recovery events took place within 1 year of relapse onset: 202 of 240 (84%) individuals recovered during follow-up, 161 of 202 (80%) by 180 days, and 189 of 202 (94%) by 365 days. Relapse severity was the only factor associated with relapse recovery.

CONCLUSION

Recovery from relapses takes place up to approximately 1 year after the event. Relapse severity, but no other patient factors, was associated with the speed of relapse recovery. Our findings inform clinical practice and trial design in RRMS.

Comparison of the EDSS, Timed 25-Foot Walk, and the 9-Hole Peg Test as Clinical Trial Outcomes in Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

Clinical trials in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) usually use the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) as their primary disability outcome measure, while the more recently developed outcomes timed 25-ft walk (T25FW) and 9-hole peg test (NHPT) may be more useful and patient relevant. The objective of this work was to compare the EDSS to the T25FW and NHPT in a large RRMS randomized controlled trial (RCT) dataset.

METHODS

We used the dataset from Combination Therapy in Patients With Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis (CombiRx) (clinicaltrials.gov identifier NCT00211887), a large phase 3 RCT, to compare the EDSS to the alternative outcomes T25FW and NHPT. We investigated disability worsening vs similarly defined improvement, unconfirmed vs confirmed and sustained disability change, and the presentation methods cumulative Kaplan-Meier survival curves vs cross-sectional disability worsening.

RESULTS

CombiRx included 1,008 participants. A comparison of confirmed and sustained worsening events showed that, throughout the trial, there were substantially fewer sustained than confirmed events, with a positive predictive value of confirmed for sustained worsening at 24 months of 0.73 for the EDSS, 0.73 for the T25FW, and 0.8 for the NHPT. More concerning were the findings that worsening on the EDSS occurred as frequently as similarly defined improvement throughout the 3 years of follow-up and that improvement rates increased in parallel with worsening rates. The T25FW showed low improvement rates of <10% throughout the trial. We also found that Kaplan-Meier survival analysis, the standard presentation and analysis method in modern RRMS trials, yields exaggerated estimates of disability worsening. With the Kaplan-Meier method, the proportion of patients with worsening events steadily increases until it reaches several-fold the number of events seen with more conservative analysis methods. For 3-month confirmed disability worsening up to 36 months, the Kaplan-Meier method yields 2.6-fold higher estimates for the EDSS, 2.9-fold higher estimates for the T25FW, and 5.1-fold higher estimates for the NHPT compared to a more conservative presentation of the same data.

DISCUSSION

Our analyses raise concerns about using the EDSS as the standard disability outcome in RRMS trials and suggest that the T25FW may be a more useful measure. These findings are relevant for the design and critical appraisal of RCTs.

Measuring Treatment Response in Progressive Multiple Sclerosis-Considerations for Adapting to an Era of Multiple Treatment Options

Disability in multiple sclerosis accrues predominantly in the progressive forms of the disease. While disease-modifying treatment of relapsing MS has drastically evolved over the last quarter-century, the development of efficient drugs for preventing or at least delaying disability in progressive MS has proven more challenging. In that way, many drugs (especially disease-modifying treatments) have been researched in the aspect of delaying disability progression in patients with a progressive course of the disease. While there are some disease-modifying treatments approved for progressive multiple sclerosis, their effect is moderate and limited mostly to patients with clinical and/or radiological signs of disease activity. Several phase III trials have used different primary outcomes with different time frames to define disease progression and to evaluate the efficacy of a disease-modifying treatment. The lack of sufficiently sensitive outcome measures could be a possible explanation for the negative clinical trials in progressive multiple sclerosis. On the other hand, even with a potential outcome measure that would be sensitive enough to determine disease progression and, thus, the efficacy or failure of a disease-modifying treatment, the question of clinical relevance remains unanswered. In this systematic review, we analyzed outcome measures and definitions of disease progression in phase III clinical trials in primary and secondary progressive multiple sclerosis. We discuss advantages and disadvantages of clinical and paraclinical outcome measures aiming for practical ways of combining them to detect disability progression more sensitively both in future clinical trials and current clinical routine.

A comparison of clinical outcomes in PPMS in the INFORMS original trial data set

Background:

The expanded disability status scale (EDSS) is the standard clinical outcome measure in primary progressive multiple sclerosis (PPMS), even though the timed 25-foot walk (T25FW), nine-hole peg test (NHPT) or combinations of these measures may be more useful. The paced auditory serial addition test (PASAT) is a widely used cognitive measure in MS, but little is known about change in PASAT scores over time in PPMS.

Objective:

The objective of this study is to compare clinical outcome measures in a large PPMS trial data set.

Methods:

We determined significant worsening events on the EDSS, T25FW and NHPT, and PASAT scores over the course of this 3-year trial. We compared unconfirmed, confirmed and sustained disability worsening and contrasted disability worsening with similarly defined improvement. We examined the association of baseline characteristics with the risk of disability worsening at 12, 24 and 36 months with logistic regression models.

Results:

The EDSS and T25FW showed most worsening events, while only few patients worsened on the NHPT. Adding the NHPT to a combined outcome added only few further worsening events. PASAT scores slightly increased over time, possibly due to a practice effect.

Conclusion:

Both the EDSS and T25FW, but not NHPT or PASAT, appear to be useful outcome measures in PPMS.

Siponimod: Disentangling disability and relapses in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis

Background:

In multiple sclerosis, impact of treatment on disability progression can be confounded if treatment also reduces relapses.

Objective:

To distinguish siponimod’s direct effects on disability progression from those on relapses in the EXPAND phase 3 trial.

Methods:

Three estimands, one based on principal stratum and two on hypothetical scenarios (no relapses, or equal relapses in both treatment arms), were defined to determine the extent to which siponimod’s effects on 3- and 6-month confirmed disability progression were independent of on-study relapses.

Results:

Principal stratum analysis estimated that siponimod reduced the risk of 3- and 6-month confirmed disability progression by 14%–20% and 29%–33%, respectively, compared with placebo in non-relapsing patients. In the hypothetical scenarios, risk reductions independent of relapses were 14%–18% and 23% for 3- and 6-month confirmed disability progression, respectively.

Conclusion:

By controlling the confounding impact of on-study relapses on confirmed disability progression, these statistical approaches provide a methodological framework to assess treatment effects on disability progression in relapsing and non-relapsing patients. The analyses support that siponimod may be useful for treating secondary progressive multiple sclerosis in patients with or without relapses.

A real-world cohort analysis of alemtuzumab outcomes in relapsing multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic and progressive neurological disease characterized by recurrent episodes of inflammatory demyelination of the brain and spinal cord. Alemtuzumab has been previously shown in large phase III trials to be an effective therapy in reducing MS clinical flares as well as new radiological activity and atrophy rates. The purpose of this study was to examine real-world effectiveness and safety data from a large cohort of people treated with alemtuzumab at an academic medical center, including those who failed B-cell depletion therapy. Over an average of 2.6 years follow-up, there were small but significant improvements in neurological disability scores, and a 61% rate of the composite "No Evidence of Disease Activity" (NEDA-3) outcome at 2-year follow-up. There were no substantial safety issues encountered in our review; rates of adverse events were similar or below those reported in Phase III trials. We compare and contrast our results to other available real-world data using alemtuzumab in multiple sclerosis.

Reliability of Outcome Measures in Clinical Trials in Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the reliability of clinical outcomes in secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) trials, we compared the frequency of progression and improvement events on different clinical outcome measures in the placebo arms of 2 large randomized controlled trial (RCT) datasets.

METHODS

Using original trial data from the placebo arms of IMPACT (International MS Secondary Progressive Avonex Controlled Trial) and ASCEND (A Clinical Study of the Efficacy of Natalizumab on Reducing Disability Progression in Participants With Secondary Progressive Multiple Sclerosis), 2 large RCTs in SPMS, we compared disability progression and similarly defined improvement with and without 3- or 6-month confirmation on the outcome measures Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), Timed 25-Foot Walk (T25FW), 9-Hole Peg Test (9HPT), and their combinations.

RESULTS

In both datasets, the EDSS showed the highest rates of improvement over time, and the smallest difference between progression and improvement rates, followed by the T25FW and the 9HPT. For the T25FW and 9HPT, improvement rates were fairly stable over time and remained at below or around the 10% level. For the EDSS, improvement rates increased in parallel with disability progression rates.

CONCLUSIONS

All investigated outcome measures in SPMS showed some evidence of random variation and measurement error, the T25FW and 9HPT less so than the more established outcome EDSS. Our findings are relevant for the design and critical appraisal of trials in SPMS.

Clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of beta-interferon and glatiramer acetate for treating multiple sclerosis: systematic review and economic evaluation

BACKGROUND

At the time of publication of the most recent National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE) guidance [technology appraisal (TA) 32] in 2002 on beta-interferon (IFN-β) and glatiramer acetate (GA) for multiple sclerosis, there was insufficient evidence of their clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness.

OBJECTIVES

To undertake (1) systematic reviews of the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of IFN-β and GA in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS), secondary progressive multiple sclerosis (SPMS) and clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) compared with best supportive care (BSC) and each other, investigating annualised relapse rate (ARR) and time to disability progression confirmed at 3 months and 6 months and (2) cost-effectiveness assessments of disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) for CIS and RRMS compared with BSC and each other.

REVIEW METHODS

Searches were undertaken in January and February 2016 in databases including The Cochrane Library, MEDLINE and the Science Citation Index. We limited some database searches to specific start dates based on previous, relevant systematic reviews. Two reviewers screened titles and abstracts with recourse to a third when needed. The Cochrane tool and the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) and Philips checklists were used for appraisal. Narrative synthesis and, when possible, random-effects meta-analysis and network meta-analysis (NMA) were performed. Cost-effectiveness analysis used published literature, findings from the Department of Health's risk-sharing scheme (RSS) and expert opinion. A de novo economic model was built for CIS. The base case used updated RSS data, a NHS and Personal Social Services perspective, a 50-year time horizon, 2014/15 prices and a discount rate of 3.5%. Outcomes are reported as incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). We undertook probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

RESULTS

In total, 6420 publications were identified, of which 63 relating to 35 randomised controlled trials (RCTs) were included. In total, 86% had a high risk of bias. There was very little difference between drugs in reducing moderate or severe relapse rates in RRMS. All were beneficial compared with BSC, giving a pooled rate ratio of 0.65 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.76] for ARR and a hazard ratio of 0.70 (95% CI, 0.55 to 0.87) for time to disability progression confirmed at 3 months. NMA suggested that 20 mg of GA given subcutaneously had the highest probability of being the best at reducing ARR. Three separate cost-effectiveness searches identified > 2500 publications, with 26 included studies informing the narrative synthesis and model inputs. In the base case using a modified RSS the mean incremental cost was £31,900 for pooled DMTs compared with BSC and the mean incremental quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) were 0.943, giving an ICER of £33,800 per QALY gained for people with RRMS. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis the ICER was £34,000 per QALY gained. In sensitivity analysis, using the assessment group inputs gave an ICER of £12,800 per QALY gained for pooled DMTs compared with BSC. Pegylated IFN-β-1 (125 µg) was the most cost-effective option of the individual DMTs compared with BSC (ICER £7000 per QALY gained); GA (20 mg) was the most cost-effective treatment for CIS (ICER £16,500 per QALY gained).

LIMITATIONS

Although we built a de novo model for CIS that incorporated evidence from our systematic review of clinical effectiveness, our findings relied on a population diagnosed with CIS before implementation of the revised 2010 McDonald criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

DMTs were clinically effective for RRMS and CIS but cost-effective only for CIS. Both RCT evidence and RSS data are at high risk of bias. Research priorities include comparative studies with longer follow-up and systematic review and meta-synthesis of qualitative studies.

STUDY REGISTRATION

This study is registered as PROSPERO CRD42016043278.

FUNDING

The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.

The evolution of "No Evidence of Disease Activity" in multiple sclerosis

The availability of effective therapies for patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) has prompted a re-evaluation of the most appropriate way to measure treatment response, both in clinical trials and clinical practice. Traditional parameters of treatment efficacy such as annualized relapse rate, magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) activity, and disability progression have an important place, but their relative merit is uncertain, and the role of other factors such as brain atrophy is still under study. More recently, composite measures such as "no evidence of disease activity" (NEDA) have emerged as new potential treatment targets, but NEDA itself has variable definitions, is not well validated, and may be hard to implement as a treatment goal in a clinical setting. We describe the development of NEDA as an outcome measure in MS, discuss definitions including NEDA-3 and NEDA-4, and review the strengths and limitations of NEDA, indicating where further research is needed.

Randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled study of subcutaneous interferon beta-Ia in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a categorical disability trend analysis

The treatment effects of recent immunomodulatory therapies on disease progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (MS) have been mostly established from 'confirmed progression' endpoints. However, the reliability of this outcome measure is poor and a significant proportion of patients may be erroneously classified. We previously proposed the area under disability/time curves to quantify in-trial disability changes, but although these have advantages, they lack information on the direction of change. We have therefore performed disease trend analyses and categorical classifications using serial Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores from the 533 complete datasets in a double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled, phase III trial of subcutaneous interferon β-1a (IFNβ-1a) (PRISMS study). We found significant treatment benefits for IFNβ-1a on in-trial disability course (P=0.002). Therapeutic advantages remained when relapse-related assessments were excluded (P=0.018). Post hoc analyses demonstrated that IFNβ-la was mainly effective in both increasing the proportion of patients with a 'stable' course and reducing those with prolonged, disabling deteriorations. Baseline disease duration and EDSS levels, but not MRI lesion load, predicted the subsequent disability trends. Mean 'numbers needed to treat' (NNTs) to obtain preferred disability courses were reduced in patients with shorter disease duration. These results have important implications for the targeting of immunomodulatory therapies in MS. Multiple Sclerosis (2002) 8, 10-14

Comparing the efficacy of disease-modifying therapies in multiple sclerosis

Establishing the relative efficacy and safety of the different disease modifying therapies (DMTs) in multiple sclerosis (MS) is critical to the choice of agent that clinicians recommend for individual MS patients. The best evidence for the relative efficacy of the different DMTs comes from head-to-head randomized clinical trials (RCTs). Understanding that outcome-measures with the best established validity are the relapse rate and the actual (not the "confirmed") change in the extended disability status scale (EDSS), we conclude from these head-to-head RCTs that interferon-beta (IFNβ) given subcutaneously multiple times per week (either IFNβ-1b or IFNβ-1a) and glatiramer acetate (GA) are about equivalent in terms of efficacy and that both of these agents, as well as many of the other DMTs, are superior to weekly intramuscular IFNβ-1a. Nevertheless, as ever-newer agents with novel mechanisms of action are brought to the marketplace, such direct head-to-head trials are becoming increasingly impractical, raising the need for alternative methods to draw reasonable inferences from less rigorous clinical data. One possible approach to judging comparative efficacy is to make comparisons across clinical trials using the complimentary analytic methods of calculating both the relative risk/rate and the absolute risk/rate reductions. A consideration and application of this analytic approach is undertaken here. It is only with an understanding of the safety and efficacy of the different agents that we can select, together with the patient, the right agent for the right person.

Effectiveness, safety and health-related quality of life of multiple sclerosis patients treated with fingolimod: results from a 12-month, real-world, observational PERFORMS study in the Middle East

Background

Evidence on the use of fingolimod in real-world clinical practice and data on patient-reported health-related quality of life (HRQoL) in countries such as the Middle East are sparse. The Prospective Evaluation of Treatment with Fingolimod for Multiple Sclerosis (PERFORMS) study assessed HRQoL and effectiveness and safety of fingolimod in patients with relapsing-remitting multiples sclerosis (RRMS), primarily in Middle Eastern countries.

Methods

This 12-month, observational, multicentre, prospective, real-world study was conducted in patients with RRMS who initiated fingolimod or another approved disease-modifying treatment (DMT) within 4 weeks before study entry. Patients were enrolled in a 2:1 ratio to obtain more data in fingolimod and parallel in other DMTs cohort by physicians during routine medical care. Key study outcomes included HRQoL assessed using MS International QoL (MusiQoL), MS relapses and disability. Safety was assessed throughout the study period. Due to the observational nature of the study, no neuroimaging assessments were mandated and central reading was not performed.

Results

Of 249 enrolled patients, 247 were included in the analysis (fingolimod cohort 172; other DMTs cohort 75). Overall, the mean age of patients was 36.5 years, 64.4% were women and ~90% were Caucasians. At baseline, mean MS duration since diagnosis was 7.2 years in the fingolimod and 4.8 years in the other DMTs cohorts. Overall, mean changes in MusiQoL index scores were −2.1 in the fingolimod cohort and −0.7 in the other DMTs cohort at Month 12, but improvement was not significant vs. baseline in both cohorts. Proportion of relapse-free patients increased significantly during the study vs. 0–12 months before the study in the fingolimod cohort (80.2% vs. 24.4%; p < 0.0001). Proportion of patients free from disability progression was 86.5% in the fingolimod cohort. The incidences of AEs were 59.9% and 50.6% in the fingolimod and other DMTs cohorts, respectively. First-dose monitoring of fingolimod observed no cases of symptomatic bradyarrhythmia. Three cases of bradycardia were reported in the fingolimod cohort: one after the first dose and two during the study. No cases of macular oedema were observed during the study.

Conclusions

Fingolimod treatment maintained QoL over 12 months and was effective in reducing relapse rate and disability progression. No new safety findings were observed in this real-world observational study in Middle Eastern countries.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (doi:10.1186/s12883-017-0913-3) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Outcome Measures in Clinical Trials for Multiple Sclerosis

Due to the heterogeneous nature of the disease, it is a challenge to capture disease activity of multiple sclerosis (MS) in a reliable and valid way. Therefore, it can be difficult to assess the true efficacy of interventions in clinical trials. In phase III trials in MS, the traditionally used primary clinical outcome measures are the Expanded Disability Status Scale and the relapse rate. Secondary outcome measures in these trials are the number or volume of T2 hyperintense lesions and gadolinium-enhancing T1 lesions on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of the brain. These secondary outcome measures are often primary outcome measures in phase II trials in MS. Despite several limitations, the traditional clinical measures are still the mainstay for assessing treatment efficacy. Newer and potentially valuable outcome measures increasingly used or explored in MS trials are, clinically, the MS Functional Composite and patient-reported outcome measures, and on MRI, brain atrophy and the formation of persisting black holes. Several limitations of these measures have been addressed and further improvements will probably be proposed. Major improvements are the coverage of additional functional domains such as cognitive functioning and assessment of the ability to carry out activities of daily living. The development of multidimensional measures is promising because these measures have the potential to cover the full extent of MS activity and progression. In this review, we provide an overview of the historical background and recent developments of outcome measures in MS trials. We discuss the advantages and limitations of various measures, including newer assessments such as optical coherence tomography, biomarkers in body fluids and the concept of 'no evidence of disease activity'.

Alemtuzumab improves preexisting disability in active relapsing-remitting MS patients

Objective:

To characterize effects of alemtuzumab treatment on measures of disability improvement in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) with inadequate response (≥1 relapse) to prior therapy.

Methods:

Comparison of Alemtuzumab and Rebif Efficacy in Multiple Sclerosis (CARE-MS) II, a 2-year randomized, rater-blinded, active-controlled, head-to-head, phase 3 trial, compared efficacy and safety of alemtuzumab 12 mg with subcutaneous interferon-β-1a (SC IFN-β-1a) 44 μg in patients with RRMS. Prespecified and post hoc disability outcomes based on Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS), Multiple Sclerosis Functional Composite (MSFC), and Sloan low-contrast letter acuity (SLCLA) are reported, focusing on improvement of preexisting disability in addition to slowing of disability accumulation.

Results:

Alemtuzumab-treated patients were more likely than SC IFN-β-1a–treated patients to show improvement in EDSS scores (p < 0.0001) on all 7 functional systems. Significantly more alemtuzumab patients demonstrated 6-month confirmed disability improvement. The likelihood of improved vs stable/worsening MSFC scores was greater with alemtuzumab than SC IFN-β-1a (p = 0.0300); improvement in MSFC scores with alemtuzumab was primarily driven by the upper limb coordination and dexterity domain. Alemtuzumab-treated patients had more favorable changes from baseline in SLCLA (2.5% contrast) scores (p = 0.0014) and MSFC + SLCLA composite scores (p = 0.0097) than SC IFN-β-1a–treated patients.

Conclusions:

In patients with RRMS and inadequate response to prior disease-modifying therapies, alemtuzumab provides greater benefits than SC IFN-β-1a across several disability outcomes, reflecting improvement of preexisting disabilities.

Classification of evidence:

This study provides Class I evidence (based on rater blinding and a balance in baseline characteristics between arms) that alemtuzumab modifies disability measures favorably compared with SC IFN-β-1a.

Towards a European Network for Multiple Sclerosis Trials (ENMST)

Quality standards for clinical studies in the field of multiple sclerosis (MS) have improved significantly, to the great benefit of patients. This development has been accompanied by soaring costs and ever increasing complexity, with industry-independent trials having become virtually impossible. We propose establishing a European network that would include expertise in all the relevant aspects of MS treatment trials. In a stepwise approach, all interested active centres across Europe should be recruited into the network, based on agreement upon common scientific standards and quality requirements. Three main goals are discussed: • to facilitate identification of potentially useful agents for MS treatment; • to establish protocols for the interactio n between investigators and industry; and • to identify common standards and a core set of data to allow for comparisons of MS trials. Collaboration with existing international organizations and institutions, especially the Sylvia Lawry Centre for MS Research, as well as with similar initiatives in North A merica and other parts of the world is envisaged.

Treatment Optimization in Multiple Sclerosis

The treatment of multiple sclerosis has finally become possible with the advent of the current disease-modifying therapies (DMTs) that have had a significant impact on those living with this disease. Though demonstrating clear efficacy on a number of short-term outcome measures, unfortunately, these agents are not “cures” and many patients with multiple sclerosis continue to experience disease activity in spite of treatment. Clinicians are becoming more comfortable initiating therapy with DMTs, but it is now important to focus attention on monitoring the results of the chosen therapy and deciding whether or not a patient is responding well to treatment. At present, however, clinicians lack criteria for defining optimal versus suboptimal responses to DMTs as well as evidence-based guidelines on how to improve treatment outcomes. Using a recently published model as a framework, The Canadian Multiple Sclerosis Working Group developed practical recommendations on how neurologists can assess the status of patients on DMTs and decide when it may be necessary to modify treatment in order to optimize outcomes. The Canadian Multiple Sclerosis Working Group's recommendations are based on monitoring relapses, neurological progression and MRI activity. Other possible causes of suboptimal treatment responses or treatment failure are also considered.

Short-term suboptimal response criteria for predicting long-term non-response to first-line disease modifying therapies in multiple sclerosis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

There is no consensus about short-term suboptimal response to first-line treatments in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

METHODS

We searched studies with interferon beta or glatiramer acetate in which a long-term (≥ 2 years (y)) outcome could be predicted using short-term (≤ 1 y) suboptimal response criteria (EDSS-, imaging- and/or relapse-based). We obtained pooled diagnostic accuracy parameters for the 1-y criteria used to predict disability progression between 2-5 y.

RESULTS

We selected 45 articles. Eight studies allowed calculating pooled estimates of 16 criteria. The three criteria with best accuracy were: new or enlarging T2-weighted lesions (newT2) ≥ 1 (pooled sensitivity: 85.5%; specificity:70.2%; positive predictive value:48.0%; negative predictive value:93.8%), newT2 ≥ 2 (62.4%, 83.6%, 55.0% and 87.3%, respectively) and RIO score ≥ 2 (55.8%, 84.4%, 47.8% and 88.2%). Pooled percentages of suboptimal responders were 43.3%, 27.6% and 23.7%, respectively. Pooled diagnostic odds ratios were 14.6 (95% confidence interval: 1.4-155), 9.2 (1.4-59.0) and 8.2 (3.5-19.2).

CONCLUSIONS

All criteria had a limited predictive value. RIO score ≥ 2 at 1-y combined fair accuracy and consistency, limiting the probability of disability progression in the next years to 1 in 8 optimal responders. NewT2 ≥ 1 at 1-y had similar positive predictive value, but diminished the false negatives to 1 in 16 patients. More sensitive measures of treatment failure at short term are needed.

Inclusion of brain volume loss in a revised measure of 'no evidence of disease activity' (NEDA-4) in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis

Background:

‘No evidence of disease activity’ (NEDA), defined as absence of magnetic resonance imaging activity (T2 and/or gadolinium-enhanced T1 lesions), relapses and disability progression (‘NEDA-3’), is used as a comprehensive measure of treatment response in relapsing multiple sclerosis (RMS), but is weighted towards inflammatory activity. Accelerated brain volume loss (BVL) occurs in RMS and is an objective measure of disease worsening and progression.

Objective:

To assess the contribution of individual components of NEDA-3 and the impact of adding BVL to NEDA-3 (‘NEDA-4’)

Methods:

We analysed data pooled from two placebo-controlled phase 3 fingolimod trials in RMS and assessed NEDA-4 using different annual BVL mean rate thresholds (0.2%–1.2%).

Results:

At 2 years, 31.0% (217/700) of patients receiving fingolimod 0.5 mg achieved NEDA-3 versus 9.9% (71/715) on placebo (odds ratio (OR) 4.07; p < 0.0001). Adding BVL (threshold of 0.4%), the respective proportions of patients achieving NEDA-4 were 19.7% (139/706) and 5.3% (38/721; OR 4.41; p < 0.0001). NEDA-4 status favoured fingolimod across all BVL thresholds tested (OR 4.01–4.41; p < 0.0001).

Conclusion:

NEDA-4 has the potential to capture the impact of therapies on both inflammation and neurodegeneration, and deserves further evaluation across different compounds and in long-term studies.

Defining reliable disability outcomes in multiple sclerosis

Prevention of irreversible disability is currently the most important goal of disease modifying therapy for multiple sclerosis. The disability outcomes used in most clinical trials rely on progression of Expanded Disability Status Scale score confirmed over 3 or 6 months. However, sensitivity and stability of this metric has not been extensively evaluated. Using the global MSBase cohort study, we evaluated 48 criteria of disability progression, testing three definitions of baseline disability, two definitions of progression magnitude, two definitions of long-term irreversibility and four definitions of event confirmation period. The study outcomes comprised the rates of detected progression events per 10 years and the proportions of the recorded events persistent at later time points. To evaluate the ratio of progression frequency and stability for each criterion, we calculated the proportion of events persistent over the five subsequent years once progression was achieved. Finally, we evaluated the clinical and demographic determinants characterising progression events and, for those that regressed back to baseline, determinants of their subsequent regression. The study population consisted of 16 636 patients with the minimum of three recorded disability scores, totalling 112 584 patient-years. The progression rates varied between 0.41 and 1.14 events per 10 years, with the length of required confirmation interval as the most important determinant of the observed variance. The concordance among all tested progression criteria was only 17.3%. Regression of disability occurred in 11-34% of the progression events over the five subsequent years. The most important determinant of progression stability was the length of the confirmation period. For the most accurate set of the progression criteria, the proportions of 3-, 6-, 12- or 24-month confirmed events persistent over 5 years reached 70%, 74%, 80% and 89%, respectively. Regression post progression was more common in younger patients, relapsing-remitting disease course, and after a smaller change in disability, and was inflated by higher visit frequency. These results suggest that the disability outcomes based on 3-6-month confirmed disability progression overestimate the accumulation of permanent disability by up to 30%. This could lead to spurious results in short-term clinical trials, and the issue may be magnified further in cohorts consisting predominantly of younger patients and patients with relapsing-remitting disease. Extension of the required confirmation period increases the persistence of progression events.

Relapses in multiple sclerosis: Relationship to disability

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a recurrent inflammatory disease of the central nervous system, which ultimately causes substantial disability in many patients. A key clinical feature of this disease is the occurrence of relapses, consisting of episodes of neurological dysfunction followed by periods of remission. This review considers in detail the importance of the occurrence of relapses to the ultimate course of MS and the impact of relap setreatment (both acutely and prophylactically) on the long-term outcome for individuals. The ultimate goal of therapy in MS is the reduction of long-term disability. Clinical trials in MS, however, typically only extend for a very short time period compared to the time it takes for disability to evolve. Consequently, short-term outcome measures that are associated with, and predict, future disability need to be identified. In this regard, not only are relapses a characteristic feature of MS, they have also been proven to be associated with the occurrence of long-term disability. Moreover, treatments that reduce the number and severity of these attacks improve the long-term prognosis.

A Network Meta-Analysis of Efficacy and Evaluation of Safety of Subcutaneous Pegylated Interferon Beta-1a versus Other Injectable Therapies for the Treatment of Relapsing-Remitting Multiple Sclerosis

Subcutaneous pegylated interferon beta-1a (peginterferon beta-1a [PEG-IFN]) 125 μg every two or four weeks has been studied in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients in the pivotal Phase 3 ADVANCE trial. In the absence of direct comparative evidence, a network meta-analysis (NMA) was conducted to provide an indirect assessment of the relative efficacy, safety, and tolerability of PEG-IFN versus other injectable RRMS therapies. Systematic searches were conducted in MEDLINE, Embase, and the Cochrane Library, and conference proceedings from relevant annual symposia were hand-searched. Included studies were randomized controlled trials evaluating ≥1 first-line treatments including interferon beta-1a 30, 44, and 22 μg, interferon beta-1b, and glatiramer acetate in patients with RRMS. Studies were included based on a pre-specified protocol and extracted by a team of independent reviewers and information scientists, utilizing criteria from NICE and IQWiG. In line with ADVANCE findings, NMA results support that PEG-IFN every 2 weeks significantly reduced annualized relapse rate, and 3- and 6-month confirmed disability progression (CDP) versus placebo. There was numerical trend favoring PEG-IFN every 2 weeks versus other IFNs assessed for annualized relapse rate, and versus all other injectables for 3- and 6-month CDP (6-month CDP was significantly reduced versus IFN beta-1a 30 μg). The safety and tolerability profile of PEG-IFN beta-1a 125 μg every 2 weeks was consistent with that of other evaluated treatments. Study limitations for the NMA include variant definitions of relapse and other systematic differences across trials, assumptions that populations were sufficiently similar, and inability to perform NMA of adverse events. With similar efficacy compared to other RRMS treatments in terms of annualized relapse rate and 3- and 6-month CDP, a promising safety profile, and up to 93% reduction in number of injections (which may improve adherence), PEG-IFN every 2 weeks offers a valuable alternative treatment option for patients with RRMS.

Longitudinal changes in self-reported walking ability in multiple sclerosis

Background

Patient-reported outcomes are increasingly used to understand the clinical meaningfulness of multiple sclerosis disability and its treatments. For example, the 12-item Multiple Sclerosis Walking Scale (MSWS-12) measures the patient-reported impact of the disease on walking ability.

Objective

We studied longitudinal changes in walking ability using the MSWS-12 in a cohort of 108 patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis and moderate-to-severe disability from a single US center cohort study investigating multiple sclerosis symptoms and physical activity.

Methods

The MSWS-12 was completed every 6 months over 2 years together with self-reported measures of disease impact on daily life (Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale) and walking disability (Patient Determined Disease Steps scale).

Results

The results revealed a high frequency of self-reported changes in walking ability at the individual level, affecting approximately 80% of patients for all four time periods. MSWS-12 scores remained stable at the group level for all four time periods. The magnitude of observed changes at the individual level was higher than the proposed minimal clinically important differences of 4 or 6 points and correlated better with Multiple Sclerosis Impact Scale physical scores than psychological scores, but little with self-reported Patient Determined Disease Steps Scale scores.

Conclusions

This novel finding of frequent fluctuations in self-reported walking ability is new and requires further investigation.

Predictors of disability worsening in clinically isolated syndrome

Objective

To assess demographic, clinical, magnetic resonance imaging, and treatment exposure predictors of time to 3 or 12-month confirmed disability worsening in clinically isolated syndrome (CIS) and early multiple sclerosis (MS).

Methods

We utilized the MSBase Incident Study (MSBasis), a prospective cohort study of outcome after CIS. Predictors of time to first 3 and 12-month confirmed expanded disability status scale worsening were analyzed using Cox proportional hazards regression.

Results

About 1989 patients were analyzed, the largest seen-from-onset cohort reported to-date. A total of 391 patients had a first 3-month confirmed disability worsening event, of which 307 were sustained for 12 months. Older age at CIS onset (adjusted hazard ratio: aHR 1.17, 95% 1.06, 1.30), pyramidal (aHR 1.45, 95% CI 1.13, 1.89) and ambulation (HR 1.60, 95% CI 1.09, 2.34) system dysfunction, annualized relapse rate (aHR 1.20, 95% CI 1.18, 1.22), and lower proportion of observation time on treatment were associated with 3-month confirmed worsening. Predictors of time to 12-month sustained worsening included pyramidal system dysfunction (Hazard ratio: aHR 1.38, 95% CI 1.05, 1.83), and older age at CIS onset (aHR 1.17, 95% CI 1.04, 1.31). Greater proportion of follow-up time exposed to treatment was associated with greater reductions in the rate of worsening.

Interpretation

This study provides class IV evidence for a strong protective effect of disease-modifying treatment to reduce disability worsening events in patients with CIS and early MS, and confirms age and pyramidal dysfunction at onset as risk factors.

Comparative efficacy of switching to natalizumab in active multiple sclerosis

OBJECTIVE

To compare treatment efficacy and persistence in patients who switched to natalizumab versus those who switched between glatiramer acetate (GA) and interferon-beta (IFNβ) after an on-treatment relapse on IFNβ or GA using propensity score matched real-world datasets.

METHODS

Patients included were registered in MSBase or the TYSABRI Observational Program (TOP), had relapsed on IFNβ or GA within 12 months prior to switching to another therapy, and had initiated natalizumab or IFNβ/GA treatment ≤6 months after discontinuing prior therapy. Covariates were balanced across post switch treatment groups by propensity score matching at treatment initiation. Relapse, persistence, and disability measures were compared between matched treatment arms in the total population (n = 869/group) and in subgroups defined by prior treatment history (IFNβ only [n = 578/group], GA only [n = 165/group], or both IFNβ and GA [n = 176/group]).

RESULTS

Compared to switching between IFNβ and GA, switching to natalizumab reduced annualized relapse rate in year one by 65-75%, the risk of first relapse by 53-82% (mean follow-up 1.7-2.2 years) and treatment discontinuation events by 48-65% (all P ≤ 0.001). In the total population, switching to natalizumab reduced the risk of confirmed disability progression by 26% (P = 0.036) and decreased the total disability burden by 1.54 EDSS-years (P < 0.0001) over the first 24 months post switch.

INTERPRETATION

Using large, real-world, propensity-matched datasets we demonstrate that after a relapse on IFNβ or GA, switching to natalizumab (rather than between IFNβ and GA) led to superior outcomes for patients in all measures assessed. Results were consistent regardless of the prior treatment identity.

Alemtuzumab treatment of multiple sclerosis: long-term safety and efficacy

OBJECTIVES

Alemtuzumab is a newly licensed treatment of active relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) in Europe, which in phase II and III studies demonstrated superior efficacy over β-interferon in reducing disability progression over 2-3 years. In this observational cohort study, we sought to describe our longer-term experience of the efficacy and safety of alemtuzumab in active RRMS.

METHODS

Clinical and laboratory data including serial Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) assessments, from all 87 patients treated with alemtuzumab on investigator-led studies in Cambridge, UK, from 1999 to 2012, were collected. The occurrence of adverse events including secondary autoimmunity, malignancy and death, and pregnancy outcomes was recorded. Baseline variables including age, disease duration and relapse rate were compared in univariate and logistic regression analyses between groups with different disability outcomes.

RESULTS

Over a median 7-year follow-up (range 33-144 months), most patients (52%) required just two cycles of alemtuzumab. In the remaining patients, relapses triggered re-treatment to a total of three cycles (36%), four cycles (8%) or five cycles (1%). Using a 6-month sustained accumulation of disability definition, 59/87 (67.8%) of patients had an improved or unchanged disability compared with baseline. By an area under the curve analysis, 52/87 (59.8%) patients had an overall improvement or stabilisation of disability. Higher baseline relapse rate was associated with worse long-term disability outcomes, with trends for longer disease duration and older age at first treatment. Secondary autoimmunity was the most frequent adverse event occurring in 41/86 (47.7%) patients, most commonly involving the thyroid gland.

CONCLUSIONS

Alemtuzumab is associated with disease stabilisation in the majority of patients with highly active RRMS over an average seven-year follow-up. No new safety concerns arose over this extended follow-up.

Clinical outcome measures in multiple sclerosis

Clinical outcome measures are indispensable when studying the natural course of multiple sclerosis (MS) and critical for determining the effect of an intervention. For these purposes clinical outcome measures should be valid, reliable, and responsive. Moreover they should assess clinically relevant aspects of the disease. Given the nature of the disease, outcome measures in MS should be able to capture multiple clinical dimensions. Long-term disability-free survival is the ultimate goal of MS treatment. Since the observation period in clinical trials is too short to get a final answer on that outcome, clinicians and researchers rely on extrapolation of the results beyond the treatment period. Yet the long-term predictive value of most outcome measures (e.g., relapse rate) used for short-term responses has not yet been determined. The expanded disability status scale (EDSS) is the outcome measure that is most often included in MS studies. The EDSS appeals to most neurologists as it is the result of a standardized neurologic examination and neurologists know it well. However, when considered critically, the EDSS has serious weaknesses from a clinimetric point of view that limit its value as an outcome measure in MS. The search for an alternative outcome measure that can fulfill all essential requirements and will be accepted by the scientific community, clinicians, and regulatory agencies is a huge challenge.

The clinical course of multiple sclerosis

Knowledge of the epidemiology and natural history of multiple sclerosis (MS) is essential for practitioners and patients to make informed decisions about their care. This knowledge, in turn, depends upon the findings from reliable studies (i.e., those which adhere to the highest methodological standards). For a clinically variable disease such as MS, these standards include case ascertainment using a population-based design; a large-sized sample of patients, who are followed for a long time-period in order to provide adequate statistical power; a regular assessment of patients that is prospective, frequent, and standardized; and the application of rigorous statistical techniques, taking into account confounding factors such as the use of disease modifying therapy or the age at clinical onset. In this chapter we review the available epidemiologic and natural history data as it relates clinical issues such as the likelihood of incomplete recovery from a first attack; the likelihood and time course of a second attack; the likelihood and time course of disease progression and the accumulation of irreversible disability; the disease prognosis based both upon the clinical nature and presentation of the first episode and upon the initial disease course; and the impact of disease on mortality. In addition, these studies provide insight to the pathophysiologic mechanisms underlying the course and prognosis of MS. Studies of the Lyon cohort have been particularly helpful in this regard and observations from this cohort have led to the hypothesis that, in large part, the accumulation of disability in MS is an age-related process, which is independent of the clinical subtype of MS (i.e., relapsing-remitting, primary progressive, secondary progressive, or relapsing progressive). And finally, we consider briefly the impact of various life events (e.g., pregnancy, infection, vaccination, trauma, and stress) on the clinical course of disease.

Investigation of heterogeneity in the association between interferon beta and disability progression in multiple sclerosis: an observational study

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

It was recently reported that there was no significant overall association between interferon beta exposure and disability progression in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) patients in an observational study from Canada. In the current study, the potential for heterogeneity in the association between exposure to interferon beta and disability progression across patients' baseline characteristics was investigated.

METHODS

RRMS patients treated with interferon beta (n = 868) and two cohorts of untreated patients (829 contemporary and 959 historical controls) were included. The main outcome was time from interferon beta treatment eligibility (baseline) to a confirmed and sustained Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) score 6 using a multivariable Cox model, with treatment as a time-varying predictor, testing interaction effects for five pre-specified baseline characteristics: sex, age, disease duration, EDSS and annualized relapse rate (ARR) based on the previous 2 years.

RESULTS

Significant heterogeneity was found in the association of interferon beta exposure and disability progression only across ARR, and only when treated patients were compared with historical controls (P = 0.005 at a Bonferroni-adjusted alpha of 0.01). For patients with ARR>1, treatment-exposed time was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.38 (95%CI 0.20-0.75) for disability progression compared with the unexposed time.

CONCLUSIONS

RRMS patients with more frequent relapses at baseline may be more likely to benefit from interferon beta treatment with respect to long-term disability progression.

Time to secondary progression in patients with multiple sclerosis who were treated with first generation immunomodulating drugs

BACKGROUND

It is currently unknown whether early immunomodulatory treatment in relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) can delay the transition to secondary progression (SP).

OBJECTIVE

To compare the time interval from onset to SP in patients with RRMS between a contemporary cohort, treated with first generation disease modifying drugs (DMDs), and a historical control cohort.

METHODS

We included a cohort of contemporary RRMS patients treated with DMDs, obtained from the Swedish National MS Registry (disease onset between 1995-2004, n = 730) and a historical population-based incidence cohort (onset 1950-64, n = 186). We retrospectively analyzed the difference in time to SP, termed the "period effect" within a 12-year survival analysis, using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression analysis.

RESULTS

We found that the "period" affected the entire severity spectrum. After adjusting for onset features, which were weaker in the contemporary material, as well as the therapy initiation time, the DMD-treated patients still exhibited a longer time to SP than the controls (hazard ratios: men, 0.32; women, 0.53).

CONCLUSION

Our results showed there was a longer time to SP in the contemporary subjects given DMD. Our analyses suggested that this effect was not solely driven by the inclusion of benign cases, and it was at least partly due to the long-term immunomodulating therapy given.

Natural, innate improvements in multiple sclerosis disability

BACKGROUND

Improvements in multiple sclerosis (MS) disability have recently been reported in immunomodulatory drug (IMD) clinical trials and observational studies. However, improvements have rarely been examined in natural history or IMD naive patients. We investigated annual and biennial improvements in Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) scores in British Columbia, Canada.

METHODS

The British Columbian MS database was accessed for definite MS patients (1980-2009). Consecutive IMD-free EDSS scores one and two years apart (± 3 months) were examined; improvements (≥0.5,≥1,≥2 EDSS points) and sustained improvements (confirmed at one year) were described. The influence of patient characteristics on improvements was examined using logistic regression.

RESULTS

From 16,132 EDSS scores, 7653 yearly and 5845 biennial EDSS intervals were available for 2961 and 2382 patients respectively. Of the yearly intervals, 14.9% showed an improvement (≥0.5 points), 8.3% ≥1 point and 2.2% ≥2 point improvement, with nearly half being sustained. Corresponding worsenings were observed in 32.9%, 20.5% and 7.9% respectively, with stability in just over half (53%). Biennial findings were similar. Characteristics generally associated with improvements included: female sex, younger age, shorter disease duration, relapsing-onset and presence of moderate disability (compared with mild or advanced) and a previous episode of worsening (disassociated from a relapse). However, improvements were also observed after periods of stability and in primary-progressive MS.

CONCLUSION

Improvements in MS disability over one or two years are not unusual. We suggest the term 'innate improvements'. Our findings have implication for the design of clinical trials and observational studies in MS targeting improvements on the EDSS.

Accounting for disease modifying therapy in models of clinical progression in multiple sclerosis

Identifying predictors of clinical progression in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) is complicated in the era of disease modifying therapy (DMT) because patients follow many different DMT regimens. To investigate predictors of progression in a treated RRMS sample, a cohort of RRMS patients was prospectively followed in the Comprehensive Longitudinal Investigation of Multiple Sclerosis at the Brigham and Women's Hospital (CLIMB). Enrollment criteria were exposure to either interferon-β (IFN-β, n=164) or glatiramer acetate (GA, n=114) for at least 6 months prior to study entry. Baseline demographic and clinical features were used as candidate predictors of longitudinal clinical change on the Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS). We compared three approaches to account for DMT effects in statistical modeling. In all approaches, we analyzed all patients together and stratified based on baseline DMT. Model 1 used all available longitudinal EDSS scores, even those after on-study DMT changes. Model 2 used only clinical observations prior to changing DMT. Model 3 used causal statistical models to identify predictors of clinical change. When all patients were considered using Model 1, patients with a motor symptom as the first relapse had significantly larger change in EDSS scores during follow-up (p=0.04); none of the other clinical or demographic variables significantly predicted change. In Models 2 and 3, results were generally unchanged. DMT modeling choice had a modest impact on the variables classified as predictors of EDSS score change. Importantly, however, interpretation of these predictors is dependent upon modeling choice.

Hyperbaric oxygen therapy for multiple sclerosis

Multiple sclerosis (MS) is a chronic, inflammatory, and degenerative neurological illness with no cure. It has been suggested that Hyperbaric Oxygen Therapy (HBO(2)T) may slow or reverse the progress of the disease. This article summarizes the clinical evidence for the use of HBO(2)T in the treatment of MS. We conducted a literature review focused on the interaction of hyperbaric oxygenation and MS. In particular, we appraised the clinical data regarding treatment and performed a meta-analysis of the randomized evidence using the methodology of the Cochrane Collaboration. We found 12 randomized studies in the area, all of which were performed between 1983 and 1987. A meta-analysis of this evidence suggests there is no clinically significant benefit from the administration of HBO(2)T. The great majority of randomized trials investigated a course of 20 treatments at pressures between 1.75ATA and 2.5ATA daily for 60-120 min over 4 weeks against a placebo regimen. None have tested the efficacy of HBO(2)T against alternative current best practice. No plausible benefit of HBO(2)T on the clinical course of MS was identified in this review. It remains possible that HBO(2)T is effective in a subgroup of individuals not clearly identified in the trials to date, but any benefit is unlikely to be of great clinical significance. There is some case for further human trials in selected subgroups and for prolonged courses of HBO(2)T at modest pressures, but the case is not strong. At this time, the routine treatment of MS with HBO(2)T is not recommended.

The clinical epidemiology of multiple sclerosis

A comprehensive knowledge of the natural course and prognosis of multiple sclerosis is of utmost importance for a physician to make it affordable in simple descriptive terms to a patient when personal and medical decisions are to be taken. It is still topical because the currently acknowledged disease-modifying agents only marginally alter the overall prognosis of the disease. It provides reference for evaluating the efficacy of a therapeutic intervention in clinical trials; clues for public health services, health insurance companies, and pharmaceutical industry in their respective activities; and insights into the pathophysiology and the treatment of multiple sclerosis. Precise, consistent, and reliable data from appropriate cohorts have become available and knowledge is fairly comprehensive.

Oral prednisone taper following intravenous steroids fails to improve disability or recovery from relapses in multiple sclerosis

BACKGROUND

A short course of intravenous methylprednisolone (IVMP) followed by oral prednisone taper (OPT) is often used for the treatment of relapses in multiple sclerosis (MS). We examined the effect of IVMP plus OPT compared with IVMP only on neurologic disability 1 year after treatment of a relapse in patients with relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis.

METHODS

Two hundred eighty-five consecutive relapses were analyzed in a retrospective fashion. One hundred fifty-two patients with a total of 171 relapses received IVMP plus an OPT at the time of relapse whilst 112 patients who experienced 114 relapses received IVMP without OPT.

RESULTS

There was no difference between the two groups in the baseline characteristics as well as the mean or categorical EDSS at baseline, at the time of relapse confirmation, and at months 3, 6 and 12 after relapse confirmation.

CONCLUSION

Our observations suggest that OPT following treatment with IVMP for an MS relapse does not lead to improved neurologic outcome after 12 months compared with treatment with IVMP only. Moreover, our findings raise concerns regarding the common practice of using OPT following IVMP. Further studies are indicated to validate our findings and minimize exposure to systemic corticosteroids, well known for systemic toxicity.

Reproducibility over a 1-month period of 1H-MR spectroscopic imaging NAA/Cr ratios in clinically stable multiple sclerosis patients

N-acetylaspartate/creatine (NAA/Cr) ratios, assessed with proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy, are increasingly used as a surrogate marker for axonal dysfunction and degeneration in multiple sclerosis (MS). The purpose of this study was to test short-time reproducibility of NAA/Cr ratios in patients with clinically stable MS. In 35 MS patients we analysed NAA/Cr ratios obtained with ¹H-MR spectroscopic imaging at the centrum semiovale either with lateral ventricles partially included (group 1; n=15) or more cranially with no ventricles included (group 2; n=20). To test short-term reproducibility of the NAA/Cr measurements, patients were scanned twice 4 weeks apart. We determined mean NAA/Cr and Cho/Cr ratios of 12 grey matter and 24 white matter voxels. Mean NAA/Cr ratios of both the white and grey matter did not change after 4 weeks. Overall 4-week reproducibility of the NAA/Cr ratio, expressed as coefficient of variation, was 4.8% for grey matter and 3.5% for white matter. Reproducibility of cranial scanning of the ventricles was slightly better than with cerebrospinal fluid included. Our study shows good short-term reproducibility of NAA/Cr ratio measurements in the centrum semiovale, which supports the reliability of this technique for longitudinal studies.

A randomized group intervention trial to enhance mood and self-efficacy in people with multiple sclerosis

OBJECTIVES

To document mood, self-efficacy, and resiliency in people with multiple sclerosis (MS) following a brief group psychological intervention, and to examine whether benefits were greater than those derived from provision of education or group social interaction.

DESIGN

A randomized controlled intervention trial assessing outcomes at five time points over a 1-year follow-up.

METHODS

Participants with MS were assigned to one of three groups: one receiving brief group psychological intervention (PG) comprising three 90 minute cognitive behavioural sessions supported by an Information Booklet dealing with mental and emotional issues relating to MS; a group provided only with educational material - the information booklet group (IBG); and a group who not only received the booklet but also participated in non-structured social discussion (SDG) sessions similar in length and number to PG participants. Outcomes were documented using questionnaires.

RESULTS

Outcomes were assessed using area under the curve (AUC) analysis: a summary measure that considers individual changes serially over time to provide a more meaningful picture than the one based on single time points. Ninety participants were followed up over the 12-month post-intervention, and their data are included in the analysis. Analyses indicated benefits in all outcome dimensions for the psychotherapeutic (PG) and social discussion groups (SDG) relative to the IBG group, but no differences between PG and SDG.

CONCLUSION

The study indicates benefits from psychosocial intervention compared with bibliotherapy, with some additional benefit from psychological intervention compared with a social discussion group. Results suggest that much of the benefit may derive from non-specific therapeutic components. Without psychosocial intervention, the psychological status of people with MS worsened over time.

Outcome of beta-interferon treatment in relapsing-remitting multiple sclerosis: a Bayesian analysis

Observational studies of the effect of beta-interferon (IFNbeta) on accumulation of fixed disability in relapsing remitting multiple sclerosis (RRMS) in clinical practice have been difficult to interpret due to bias. The aim of this study of 175 RRMS patients was to use Bayesian analysis to establish whether IFNbeta attenuates disability relative to a cohort of matched historical control subjects from the Sylvia Lawry Centre for MS Research. A sensitivity analysis was based on a range of prior probability distributions for IFNbeta efficacy derived from a published meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials (RCTs) of IFNbeta, and the data were interpreted both unmodified and using variance inflation and point estimate bias correction; the corrected data interpreted in the light of the most likely prior probability distribution yielded a 95 % posterior credible interval for the odds ratio of accumulation of fixed disability after two years of IFNbeta therapy of 0.52, 0.94. It is concluded that two years of IFNbeta therapy for RRMS reduces accumulation of fixed disability in clinical practice.

Natural history of multiple sclerosis: risk factors and prognostic indicators

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

To highlight progress in the description of the natural course and prognosis of multiple sclerosis.

RECENT FINDINGS

The general evolution of multiple sclerosis is now well known at the level of patient groups. Characteristics of relapses early in the disease and the occurrence of a progressive phase seemed to be the most reliable prognostic factors. Recent works suggest that the progressive phase in multiple sclerosis could be an age-dependent, degenerative process, independent of previous relapses, and that the initial course of the disease does not substantially influence age at disability milestones. By contrast, a younger age at disease onset strongly correlates with a younger age when reaching disability landmarks, confirming that even if it takes longer for younger patients to accumulate irreversible disability, they are disabled at a younger age than patients with later onset. Multiple sclerosis might be considered as one disease with different clinical phenotypes, rather than an entity encompassing several distinct diseases.

SUMMARY

Overall course and prognosis in multiple sclerosis is most likely to be related to age and the occurrence of the progressive phase of the disease, rather than to relapses or other clinical parameters. Individual prognosis remains hazardous.

Inflammation versus neurodegeneration: consequences for treatment

Inflammation is assumed to be the main driver of neurodegeneration in multiple sclerosis. However there is evidence that questions this hypothesis: Data from pathological studies and from imaging have shown that neuronal/axonal damage occurs early in lesion formation and at the earliest clinical stage of the disease. Additionally axonal damage itself can lead to inflammation and laboratory and clinical observations suggest that inflammation may be neuroprotective. Finally, clinical trials reveal that immunosuppression does not have the predicted effect on axonal damage and disability. Clearly if inflammation is not the primary event but a secondary phenomenon this has important implications in developing treatment regimes.

Accumulation of irreversible disability in multiple sclerosis: from epidemiology to treatment

There is convincing evidence that neurological relapses in multiple sclerosis (MS) are the clinical counterpart of acute focal inflammation of the central nervous system (CNS) whereas neurological progression is that of chronic diffuse neurodegeneration. The classical view is to consider that MS is an organ-specific autoimmune disease, i.e. that inflammation is the cause of the neurodegeneration. The succession of relapses eventually leads to accumulation of disability and clinical progression results from subclinical relapses. A series of recent observations tends to challenge this classical concept. Important observations have come from the study of the natural history of MS. In the Lyon MS cohort, accumulation of irreversible disability appeared not to be affected by clinically detectable neurological relapses. This has also been shown to be "amnesic" for the early clinical characteristics of the disease, and essentially age-dependent. Suppressing relapses by disease-modifying agents does not dramatically influence the progression of irreversible disability. Interferons beta reduce the relapse rate by 30% and conventional MRI activity by more than 50%. In spite of this effect on inflammation, the effect on disability is only marginal and possibly relapse-reduction-dependent. Administration of Campath-1H to patients with very active disease in terms of frequency of relapses, accumulation of disability and MRI activity, results in a profound, prolonged lymphopenia and the suppression of clinical and MRI activity, but in spite of this, clinical disability and cerebral atrophy still progress. The same experience has been reported with cladribine and autologous haematopoietic stem cell transplantation. All these observations give support to the fact that relapses do not essentially influence irreversible disability in the long term in MS. They are consistent with what has been shown at the individual level in the 1970s by performing serial quantitative neurological examinations over several years, and with what is currently emerging from early and serial structural brain MRI studies. These breakthroughs have immediate implications for the counselling of patients with MS. They suggest that MS is as much neurodegenerative as inflammatory, and should cause the modification of disease-modifying therapeutic strategies by focussing on the protection and repair of the nervous system and not only on the control of inflammation.

The natural history of multiple sclerosis: a geographically based study 9: observations on the progressive phase of the disease

The clinical features of relapses and progression largely define multiple sclerosis phenotypes. A relapsing course is followed by chronic progression in some 80% of cases within 2 decades. The relationship between these phases and long-term outcome remains uncertain. We have analysed these clinical features within a well-studied natural history cohort with mean follow-up of 25 years. For the entire cohort, median times to reach Disability Status Scale (DSS) 6, 8 and 10 were 12.7, 20.6 and 43.9 years, respectively. Among 824 attack-onset patients, the great majority entered a progressive phase with a mean time to progression of 10.4 years. The effects of relapses often cloud the clinical onset of progression. However, there are circumstances where onset of progression is early, relatively discrete and identifiable at DSS of 2 or less. Three subgroups allow for clarity of outcome comparison and they are (i) cases of primary progressive (PP) disease, (ii) attack-onset disease where only a single attack has occurred before onset of progression (SAP) and (iii) secondary progressive (SP) disease where recovery from relapses allows recognition of the earliest clinical stages when progression begins. Here we compare survival curves in these three groups. Among cohorts of SAP (n = 140), PP (n = 219) and SP (n = 146) where progression was stratified by DSS at its onset, there was no difference in time to DSS 6, 8 and 10. These findings demonstrate that the progressive course is independent of relapses either preceding the onset of relapse-free progression or subsequent to it. Among SAP patients, the degree of recovery from the single defining exacerbation had no significant effect on outcome. The site of the original attack was not usually where progression began. The relatively stereotyped nature of the progressive phase seen in all progressive phenotypes suggests regional and/or functional differential susceptibility to a process that appears degenerative in nature. The highly prevalent distal corticospinal tract dysfunction in progressive disease and the pathologically demonstrated selective axonal loss seen in this tract raises the possibility of a dying back central axonopathy, at least in part independent of plaque location or burden. Despite considerable individual variation, the progressive course of disability seen in groups of PP, SAP and SP-DSS2 is similarly stereotyped in quality and pace and may entail mechanisms common to all forms of progressive multiple sclerosis. The possibility that this is the primary process in some cases must be considered.