High disease activity status suggests more severe disease and damage accrual in systemic lupus erythematosus

First validation of the childhood lupus low disease activity state (cLLDAS) definition in a real-life longitudinal cSLE cohort

OBJECTIVES

To validate the childhood lupus low disease activity state (cLLDAS) definition in cSLE by describing differences in time to reach first adult LLDAS (aLLDAS) versus cLLDAS. Secondly, to analyse positive and negative predictors for maintaining cLLDAS for at least 50% of follow-up time (cLLDAS-50) and for the occurrence of damage.

METHODS

Prospective longitudinal data from a cSLE cohort were analysed. Used definitions were: aLLDAS according to Franklyn, cLLDAS by cSLE treat-to-target (T2T) Task Force, disease activity score by SLEDAI -2 K and damage by SLICC damage index.

RESULTS

Fifty cSLE patients were studied, with a median follow-up of 3.1 years. Each patient reached aLLDAS and cLLDAS at least once. Mean time to reach first aLLDAS/cLLDAS was 8.2/9.0 months, respectively. For 22/42 patients the mean steroid-dose related delay to reach first cLLDAS was 6.2 months. 58% of patients were able to maintain cLLDAS-50. Time to first cLLDAS (OR 0.8, p = 0.013) and higher number of flares (OR 0.374, p = 0.03) were negative predictors to maintain cLLDAS-50. Damage occurred in 34% of patients (23.5% steroid-related), in 64.7% within one year after diagnosis. African/Afro-Caribbean ethnicity, neuropsychiatric involvement and ever use of a biologic were significant predictors for damage.

CONCLUSION

Time to reach cLLDAS in cSLE differs from time to (a)LLDAS, which validates the new cLLDAS definition. Attaining cLLDAS-50 was difficult in real-life. This cohort shows the high risk for early damage in cSLE. T2T with earlier focus on steroid-tapering and starting steroid-sparing drugs seems important to prevent (steroid-related) damage in cSLE.

The economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus in United Arab Emirates

AIMS

Our study aims to provide an enhanced comprehension of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) burden in United Arab Emirates (UAE), over a five-year period from payer and societal perspective.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A Markov model was established to simulate the economic consequences of SLE among UAE population. It included four health states: i) the three phenotypes of SLE, representing mild, moderate, and severe states, and ii) death. Clinical parameters were retrieved from previous literature and validated using the Delphi panel-the most common clinical practice within the Emirati healthcare system. We calculated the disease management, transient events, and indirect costs by macro costing. One-way sensitivity analysis was conducted.

RESULTS

The estimated number of SLE patients in our study was 13,359. The number of SLE patients with mild, moderate, and severe phenotypes was 3,914, 8,109, and 1,336, respectively. Disease management costs, including treatment of each phenotype and disease follow-up, were AED 2 billion ($0.89 billion), whereas the costs of transient events (infections, flares, and consequences of SLE-related organ damage) were AED 1 billion ($0.44 billion). The productivity loss costs among adult-employed patients with SLE in the UAE were estimated at AED 7 billion ($3.1 billion). The total SLE cost over five years from payer and societal perspectives is estimated at AED 3 ($1.3 billion) and 10 billion ($4.4 billion), respectively. Additionally, the costs per patient per year from the payer and societal perspectives were AED 45,960 ($20,610) and AED 148,468 ($66,578), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrate that the burden of SLE in the UAE is enormous, mainly because of the costly complications and productivity loss. More awareness should be created to limit the progression of SLE and reduce the occurrence of flares, necessitating further economic evaluations of novel treatments that could help reduce the economic consequences of SLE in the UAE.

Economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus in Malaysia

INTRODUCTION

Our cost-of-illness (COI) model adopted the perspective of both payer and society over a time horizon of 5 years to measure the economic burden of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in Malaysia.

METHODOLOGY

Our COI model utilized a prevalence-based model to estimate the costs and economic consequences of SLE in Malaysia. The clinical parameters were obtained from published literature and validated using the Delphi panel. Direct and indirect medical costs were measured, including disease management, transient events, and indirect costs. One-way sensitivity analysis was also performed.

RESULTS

The number of target Malaysian patients with SLE in the COI model was 18,121. At diagnosis, the numbers of SLE patients with mild, moderate, and severe phenotypes were 2,582, 13,897, and 1,642, respectively. The total SLE cost in Malaysia over 5 years from both payer and society perspectives was estimated at MYR 678 million and 2 billion, respectively. The results showed a considerable cost burden due to productivity losses resulting from SLE-related morbidity and mortality. Over a 5-year time horizon, the costs per patient per year from the payer and society perspectives were MYR 7,484 ($4766) and 24,281($15,465), respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our study demonstrated the substantial economic burden of SLE in Malaysia over a time horizon of 5 years. It affects adults of working age, in addition to the costs of SLE management and its consequences, such as flares, infection, and organ damage. Our COI model indicated that disease management costs among patients with higher disease severity were higher than those among patients with a mild phenotype. Hence, more attetion should be paid to limiting the progression of SLE and the occurrence of flares, with the need for further economic evaluation of novel treatments that could lead to better outcomes.

Cumulative pulse methylprednisolone and its relation to disease activity, damage and mortality in systemic lupus erythematosus patients: A post hoc analysis of COMOSLE-EGYPT study

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the relation between cumulative intravenous methylprednisolone dose and disease activity, damage, and mortality among a group of Egyptian SLE patients.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This is a post hoc analysis of a retrospective multicenter COMOSLE study. Cumulative pulse methylprednisolone dose was abstracted from COMOSLE database. Patients with cumulative pulse dose of ≤ 3.0 g (median dose) were compared to those with cumulative dose of > 3.0 g regarding demographic data, Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) and The Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics/ACR Damage Index (SLICC) score as well as treatment received. Additionally, at 1.5, 3, 6, and 9 g of cumulative methylprednisolone, patients were compared regarding SLICC score and risk of mortality.

RESULTS

Patients who received > 3 g of methylprednisolone were statistically significantly younger at disease onset, had longer disease duration, higher SLEDAI score at last visit, and higher SLICC score (p = 003, p = 0.002, p = 0.004 and p =  < 0.001, respectively). Additionally, with every gram increase in the cumulative methylprednisolone, there was a significant increase in SLICC score by 0.169 (B = 0.169, CI = 0.122-0.216, p-value =  < 0.001) and an increased risk of mortality by 13.5% (hazard ratio (HR) = 1.135, CI = 1.091-1.180, p-value = 0.001). The best cutoff value of methylprednisolone dose at which damage may occur, ranged between 2.75 (with sensitivity of 81.4% and specificity of 33.9%) and 3.25 g (with sensitivity of 48.3% and specificity of 71.5%).

CONCLUSION

With every gram increase in the cumulative methylprednisolone, there may be increase in damage and mortality, especially in doses exceeding the range of 2.75-3.25 g. Key Points • Treatment of systemic lupus erythematosus should be with the least possible dose of steroids to decrease the risk of damage and mortality. • With every gram increase in the cumulative intravenous methylprednisolone there may be increase in damage and mortality.

Duplex Vertical-Flow Rapid Tests for Point-of-Care Detection of Anti-dsDNA and Anti-Nuclear Autoantibodies

The goal of this study is to develop a rapid diagnostic test for rheumatic disease and systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) screening. A novel rapid vertical flow assay (VFA) was engineered and used to assay anti-nuclear (ANA) and anti-dsDNA (αDNA) autoantibodies from systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients and healthy controls (HCs). Observer scores and absolute signal intensities from the VFA were validated via ELISA. The rapid point-of-care VFA test that was engineered demonstrated a limit of detection of 0.5 IU/mL for ANA and αDNA autoantibodies in human plasma with an inter-operator CV of 19% for ANA and 12% for αDNA. Storage stability was verified over a three-month period. When testing anti-dsDNA and ANA levels in SLE and HC serum samples, the duplex VFA revealed 95% sensitivity, 72% specificity and an 84% ROC AUC value in discriminating disease groups, comparable to the gold standard, ELISA. The rapid αDNA/ANA duplex VFA can potentially be used in primary care clinics for evaluating patients or at-risk subjects for rheumatic diseases and for planning follow-up testing. Given its low cost, ease, and rapid turnaround, it can also be used to assess SLE prevalence estimates.

Patients with systemic lupus erythematosus who are underweight have distinct disease characteristics

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to detail the disease characteristics of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in individuals who are underweight and assess whether underweight status is associated with SLE disease activity.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study involving 218 patients newly diagnosed with SLE. Patients were categorized as underweight (body mass index [BMI] <18.5 kg/m2) or not underweight (BMI ≥18.5 kg/m2). We reviewed disease characteristics including the SLE Disease Activity Index 2000 (SLEDAI-2K) at diagnosis. High disease activity was defined as SLEDAI-2K ≥10. Disease characteristics were compared between those who were underweight and not underweight. We used multivariable logistic regression analysis to determine whether underweight status is associated with high disease activity.

RESULTS

Out of the 218 patients, 35 (16.1%) were underweight and 183 (83.9%) were not. Underweight patients had less renal involvement (5.7% vs 20.2%, p = .040), lower C-reactive protein levels (1.0 [0.3-2.3] mg/L vs 1.2 [0.8-5.0] mg/L, p = .028), and lower SLEDAI-2K scores (6.7 ± 4.6 vs 9.1 ± 5.7, p = .009), and were less likely to be at high disease activity status (22.9% vs 42.6%, p = .028), compared with those who were not underweight. Following adjustment for multiple covariates, being underweight was inversely associated with high disease activity status (adjusted odds ratio = 0.38, 95% confidence interval = 0.16 to 0.92, p = .031).

CONCLUSION

Patients with SLE who were underweight showed less renal involvement and lower SLEDAI-2K scores compared with those who were not underweight. Moreover, those with SLE who were underweight had a 60% lower risk of exhibiting high disease activity.

Mortality in a cohort of Egyptian systemic lupus erythematosus patients: A comparison with African, Arabic, and Mediterranean studies

Objectives

The study aimed to examine the frequency, causes, and predictors of mortality in a cohort of Egyptian systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients and compare mortality causes and the survival rate in our cohort to African, Arabic, and Mediterranean studies.

Patients and methods

In this retrospective study, a review of medical records of 563 SLE patients (516 females, 47 males; median of age: 32 [IQR: 26-38 years]; range, 14 to 63 years) fulfilling the 1997 American College of Rheumatology (ACR) criteria between January 2015 and December 2019 was done. The data extracted included demographic, clinical, and laboratory features, treatments used, disease activity as measured by Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI), and damage index as measured by Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics (SLICC) damage index. Causes of mortality were also reported.

Results

Out of 563 reviewed medical records, 50 (8.9%) patients died. Infection (28%) and organ damage (18%) were the most commonly reported causes of death. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that patients with cardiac manifestations, renal failure, those receiving higher doses of either oral (in their last visit) or intravenous (higher cumulative pulse steroids) steroids were at increased risk of mortality (p=0.011, p<0.001, p=0.01, and p<0.001, respectively; 95% confidence intervals 7.2, 63.9, 1.2, and 1.09, respectively). The overall survival at 5, 10, 15, and 20 years was 96.6%, 93.3%, 91.0%, and 83.2%, respectively, and 56.2% at 25 years until the end of the follow-up.

Conclusion

Cardiac manifestations, renal failure, and higher steroid doses were independent predictors of mortality in our cohort. As in most African countries, infection was the main cause of death in our study; however, the mortality rate and the five-year survival among our cohort were better than in African (sub-Saharan) countries and similar to Arabic and Mediterranean countries.

Predictors of severe lupus flare: a prospective follow-up study

BACKGROUND

Flare-up of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is a common characteristic that could have deleterious effects on patients' outcome and survival. The aim of this study was to identify the predictors of severe lupus flare.

METHODS

120 patients with SLE were enrolled and followed-up for 23 months. Demographic, clinical manifestations, laboratory parameters and disease activity were recorded at each visit. In addition, presence of severe lupus flare at each visit was evaluated by using the Safety of Estrogens in Lupus Erythematosus National Assessment (SELENA)-SLE disease activity index (SLEDAI) flare composite index. Predictors of severe lupus flare were obtained by backward logistic regression analyses. Predictors of SLEDAI were obtained by backward linear regression analyses.

RESULTS

During the follow-up period, 47 patients had at least one episode of severe lupus flare. Mean (SD) age of patients with severe flare versus no flare was 31.7 (7.89) and 38.3 (8.24) years, respectively (P = 0.001). Ten (62.5%) out of 16 males and 37 (35.5%) out of 104 females had severe flare (P = 0.04). History of lupus nephritis (LN) was recorded in 76.5% and 44% of patients with severe flare and no severe flare, respectively (P = 0.001). Thirty-five (29.2%) patients with high anti-double-stranded DNA (anti-ds-DNA antibody) and 12 (10%) with negative anti-ds-DNA antibody had severe lupus flare (P = 0.02). By multivariable logistic regression analysis, younger age (OR = 0.87, 95% CI 0.80-0.94, P = 0.0001), history of LN (OR = 4.66, 95% CI 1.55-14.002, P = 0.006) and high SLEDAI at the first visit (OR = 1.19, 95% CI 1.026-1.38) were the main predictors of flare. When severe lupus flare after the first visit was used as the outcome variable, similar findings were observed but, SLEDAI, although left among the final predictors in the model, was not significant. SLEDAIs in future visits were mainly predicted by Anti-ds-DNA antibody, 24-h urine protein and arthritis at the first visit.

CONCLUSION

SLE patients with younger age, history of previous LN or high baseline SLEDAI, may need closer monitoring and follow up.

A Flare Risk Index Informed by Select Immune Mediators in Systemic Lupus Erythematosus

OBJECTIVE

Systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) is marked by immune dysregulation linked to varied clinical disease activity. Using a unique longitudinal cohort of SLE patients, this study sought to identify optimal immune mediators informing an empirically refined flare risk index (FRI) reflecting altered immunity prior to clinical disease flare.

METHODS

Thirty-seven SLE-associated plasma mediators were evaluated by microfluidic immunoassay in 46 samples obtained in SLE patients with an imminent clinical disease flare (preflare) and 53 samples obtained in SLE patients without a flare over a corresponding period (pre-nonflare). SLE patients were selected from a unique longitudinal cohort of 106 patients with classified SLE (meeting the American College of Rheumatology 1997 revised criteria for SLE or the Systemic Lupus International Collaborating Clinics 2012 revised criteria for SLE). Autoantibody specificities, hybrid SLE Disease Activity Index (hSLEDAI) scores, clinical features, and medication usage were also compared at preflare (mean ± SD 111 ± 47 days prior to flare) versus pre-nonflare (99 ± 21 days prior to nonflare) time points. Variable importance was determined by random forest analysis with logistic regression subsequently applied to determine the optimal number and type of analytes informing a refined FRI.

RESULTS

Preflare versus pre-nonflare differences were not associated with demographics, autoantibody specificities, hSLEDAI scores, clinical features, nor medication usage. Forward selection and backward elimination of mediators ranked by variable importance resulted in 17 plasma mediator candidates differentiating preflare from pre-nonflare visits. A final combination of 11 mediators best informed a newly refined FRI, which achieved a maximum sensitivity of 97% and maximum specificity of 98% after applying decision curve analysis to define low, medium, and high FRI scores.

CONCLUSION

We verified altered immune mediators associated with imminent disease flare, and a subset of these mediators improved the FRI to identify SLE patients at risk of imminent flare. This molecularly informed, proactive management approach could be critical in prospective clinical trials and the clinical management of lupus.

A 5-Year Retrospective, Observational Study Assessing Rheumatoid Arthritis Disease Outcome Measures to Characterize Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Burden in the USA

INTRODUCTION

We evaluated the use of rheumatoid arthritis (RA) disease measures in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) in a US community-based rheumatology physician network over 5 years.

METHODS

This retrospective, observational cohort study (GSK Study 213818) of patients with SLE utilized electronic medical records (01 January 2010-31 December 2019) from the United Rheumatology Normalized Integrated Community Evidence database. The index was the date of first SLE diagnosis recorded in the database; the observation period was 5 years post-index. RA disease measures evaluated were: Pain Index, Multi-Dimensional Health Assessment Questionnaire (MD-HAQ), Patient Global Assessment (PtGA), Physician Global Assessment (PGA), Swollen Joint Count (SJC), Tender Joint Count (TJC), Routine Assessment of Patient Index Data 3 (RAPID3), Clinical Disease Activity Index (CDAI), Simplified Disease Activity Index (SDAI), and Disease Activity Score 28 (DAS-28). The number of patients with measures utilized, the score on each measure, and proportion of patients per disease activity category were assessed.

RESULTS

Overall, 5990 patients with SLE were included. The most frequently used measures were Pain Index, SJC, TJC, MD-HAQ, PtGA, RAPID3, and PGA (cumulative use over Years 1-5: 23.9-71.3%). For all measures, frequency of use was lowest in Year 1, followed by a general increase from Year 1 to Year 5. Scores remained relatively stable for most measures, and the proportion of patients in remission or with low/moderate disease activity per RAPID3 increased.

CONCLUSION

RA disease measure utilization in SLE was generally infrequent but increased over time. Pain Index and MD-HAQ were the most commonly applied cumulatively across 5 years of follow-up. The rationale for the increased use of these measures in SLE over time requires further exploration. In the absence of a clinically applicable SLE-specific measure, the use of RA measures, for example in conjunction with SLE measures, may provide an alternative approach for measuring disease activity, representing an opportunity to improve patient outcomes.

Predictors of infection requiring hospitalization in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: a time-to-event analysis

OBJECTIVES

To evaluate the predictors of serious infection in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE).

METHODS

Serious infections were identified in SLE patients in a prospectively-followed single centre cohort. Associations of serious infection with disease-related variables and medication use were analysed using Cox and related regression models.

RESULTS

346 patients were followed for a mean (SD) of 6.6 (3.7) years. 86 episodes of serious infection were observed, with an incidence rate of 3.8 episodes per 100 person-years. Patients who had serious infection had higher baseline SLE Damage Index (SDI) and Charlston Comorbidity Index (CCI); they were also more likely to have high disease activity status (HDAS), and higher disease activity in multiple clinical domains, higher flare rates, higher time-adjusted prednisolone dose exposure, and less time in lupus low disease activity state (LLDAS). Patients who have received cyclophosphamide, rituximab and mycophenolate were more likely to have experienced serious infection. After multivariable adjustment in Cox regression analysis, cyclophosphamide, higher SDI score, and higher disease activity were associated with an increased hazard of first serious infection. History of previous serious infection conferred the highest risk. Lymphopenia was also a modest but statistically significant predictor of serious infection.

CONCLUSION

History of previous serious infection was the strongest predictor of serious infection in our SLE cohort. This study also suggests that clinical factors such as damage accrual, disease activity, and choice of immunosuppressant, can each have an independent risk in predicting serious infection particularly the first episode.

Predictors of improvement in disease activity in first hospitalized patients with systemic lupus erythematosus: a multicenter retrospective study of a Chinese cohort

Objectives

To analyze the relative factors of improvement in disease activity (IDA) after first hospitalized treatment based on the systemic lupus erythematosus disease activity index (SLEDAI).

Methods

A total of 1069 adult systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients who were hospitalized for the first time in 26 hospitals in Jiangsu Province from 1999 to 2009 were retrospectively analyzed. SLEDAI decrease ≥ 4 during hospitalization was identified as IDA. Relative factors of IDA were assessed by univariate and multivariate logistic regression.

Results

A total of 783 (73.2%) adult SLE patients showed IDA after the first hospitalization, while the remaining patients (n = 286) were in the non-IDA group. The IDA group had higher SLEDAI at admission; fewer patients had SLICC/ACR damage index (SDI) ≥ 1, comorbidities at admission, especially Sjögren’s syndrome, abnormal serum creatinine, and glomerular filtration rate. More patients had mucocutaneous and musculoskeletal involvements, leukopenia, increased C-reactive protein, anti-dsDNA antibody positive, and hypocomplementemia at admission and were treated with methotrexate and leflunomide during hospitalization. After multivariate logistic regression analysis, SDI ≥ 1 (P = 0.005) and combined with Sjögren’s syndrome (P < 0.001) at admission had negative association with IDA. Musculoskeletal involvement (P < 0.001), anti-dsDNA antibody positive (P = 0.012), hypocomplementemia (P = 0.001), and use of leflunomide (P = 0.030) were significantly related with IDA.

Conclusion

Organ damage or comorbidities at admission were adverse to SLE improvement. Anti-dsDNA antibody positive, hypocomplementemia, musculoskeletal involvements, and leflunomide treatment had positive association with IDA of SLE.

Key Points • Organ damage or comorbidities at admission were negatively correlated with SLE improvement. • Anti-dsDNA antibody positivity, hypocomplementemia, musculoskeletal involvements, and leflunomide treatment were positively associated with SLE improvement.

Measurement of circulating CD21-CD27- B lymphocytes in SLE patients is associated with disease activity independently of conventional serological biomarkers

Determining disease activity in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) patients is challenging and limited by the lack of reliable biomarkers. Abnormally activated B cells play a key role in the pathogenesis of SLE, but their measure in clinical practice is currently not recommended. Here, we studied peripheral B cells to identify a valid biomarker. We analyzed peripheral B cells in a discovery cohort of 30 SLE patients compared to 30 healthy controls (HC) using mass cytometry and unsupervised clustering analysis. The relevant B cell populations were subsequently studied by flow cytometry in a validation cohort of 63 SLE patients, 28 autoimmune diseases controls and 39 HC. Our data show an increased frequency of B cell populations with activated phenotype in SLE compared to healthy and autoimmune diseases controls. These cells uniformly lacked the expression of CD21 and CD27. Measurement of CD21⁻CD27⁻ B cells in the blood identified patients with active disease and their frequency correlated with disease severity. Interestingly, we did not observe an increase in the frequency of CD21⁻CD27⁻ B cells in patients with clinically inactive disease but with elevated conventional biomarkers (anti-dsDNA and complement levels). Accordingly, measurement of CD21⁻CD27⁻ B cells represents a robust and easily accessible biomarker to assess the activity of the disease in SLE patients.

Fibromyalgia, mood disorders, cognitive test results, cognitive symptoms and quality of life in systemic lupus erythematosus

OBJECTIVES

Cognitive dysfunction, and comorbidities such as mood disorder and fibromyalgia, are common in SLE. This study aims to explore the associations between fibromyalgia, mood disorders, cognitive symptoms and cognitive dysfunction in SLE patients, and their impact on quality of life.

METHODS

We tested cognition in SLE patients and healthy controls, and evaluated cognitive symptoms, mood disorder, fibromyalgia, fatigue and quality of life using patient-reported outcome measures. We examined associations of these comorbidities with both patient-reported cognitive symptoms and cognitive test performance.

RESULTS

High fibromyalgia symptom score and history of depression or anxiety were associated with cognitive dysfunction. There were no significant associations between current depression, anxiety symptoms or fatigue score and objective cognitive dysfunction. In contrast, mood disorder symptoms, history of mood disorder, fibromyalgia symptoms and fatigue all had significant associations with patient-reported cognitive symptoms. There were no significant associations between patient-reported cognitive symptoms and objective cognitive dysfunction. Objective cognitive dysfunction, patient-reported cognitive symptoms, history of mood disorder and fibromyalgia symptoms all had significant associations with poorer quality of life; fibromyalgia had the biggest impact.

CONCLUSIONS

Cognitive symptoms are common in SLE, but there were no associations between cognitive symptoms and objective cognitive dysfunction. Depression, anxiety and fibromyalgia were more consistently associated with patient-reported cognitive symptoms than with objective cognitive dysfunction. These factors all have a significant impact on quality of life. Understanding the discrepancy between patient-reported cognitive symptoms and cognitive test performance is essential to advance care in this area of unmet need.

'Not at target': prevalence and consequences of inadequate disease control in systemic lupus erythematosus-a multinational observational cohort study

Background

The unmet need in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) with the current standard of care is widely recognised, but few studies have quantified this. The recent definition of treat-to-target endpoints and other thresholds of uncontrolled disease activity provide an opportunity to formally define unmet need in SLE. In this study, we enumerated the prevalence of these states and examined their association with adverse outcomes.

Methods

Data were collected prospectively in a 13-country longitudinal SLE cohort between 2013 and 2019. Unmet need was defined as never attaining lupus low disease activity state (LLDAS), a time-adjusted mean SLEDAI-2K (AMS) > 4, or ever experiencing high disease activity status (HDAS; SLEDAI-2K ≥10). Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) was assessed using SF36 (v2) and damage accrual using the SLICC-ACR SLE Damage Index (SDI).

Results

A total of 3384 SLE patients were followed over 30,313 visits (median [IQR] follow-up 2.4 [0.4, 4.3] years). Eight hundred thirteen patients (24%) never achieved LLDAS. Median AMS was 3.0 [1.4, 4.9]; 34% of patients had AMS > 4. Twenty-five per cent of patients had episodes of HDAS. Each of LLDAS-never, AMS>4, and HDAS-ever was strongly associated with damage accrual, higher glucocorticoid use, and worse HRQoL. Mortality was significantly increased in LLDAS-never (adjusted HR [95% CI] = 4.98 [2.07, 12.0], p<0.001) and HDAS-ever (adjusted hazard ratio (HR) [95% CI] = 5.45 [2.75, 10.8], p<0.001) patients.

Conclusion

Failure to achieve LLDAS, high average disease activity, and episodes of HDAS were prevalent in SLE and were significantly associated with poor outcomes including organ damage, glucocorticoid exposure, poor quality of life, and mortality.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13075-022-02756-3.

Evaluation of the Montreal Cognitive Assessment as a screening tool for cognitive dysfunction in SLE

Objectives

Cognitive dysfunction in SLE is common and associated with significant morbidity but is currently underdetected. Early detection requires the use of screening tests, as formal diagnostic cognitive testing is time-consuming. This study aims to evaluate the Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) as a screening tool for cognitive dysfunction in SLE.

Methods

Patients with SLE (n=95) and demographically matched healthy control participants (n=48) underwent cognitive testing using the 1-hour neuropsychiatric test battery recommended by the American College of Rheumatology for use in SLE and the MoCA. We used regression analyses to determine associations between MoCA and cognitive test scores. We assessed several MoCA cut-offs for predicting cognitive impairment in terms of sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value and negative predictive value. Receiver operating curve analyses were used to determine the diagnostic accuracy of the MoCA cut-off thresholds.

Results

We found a significant correlation between MoCA score and 9 of the 10 cognitive endpoints studied (all p<0.001). Receiver operating curve analysis suggested that a MoCA cut-off of <27 had highest diagnostic accuracy across the cognitive impairment definitions (area under the curve 0.76–0.78). Using a screening cut-off of <28, the MoCA had sensitivity of 83%–94% and specificity of 46%–59%, depending on the impairment definition used.

Conclusions

The MoCA correlates strongly with cognitive test results in SLE and has sufficient sensitivity for use as a screening tool with a cut-off of <28 as the optimal threshold. This tool can be incorporated into clinical practice for screening for cognitive dysfunction in SLE.

Validation of a machine learning approach to estimate Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index score categories and application in a real-world dataset

Objective

Use of the Systemic Lupus Erythematosus Disease Activity Index (SLEDAI) in routine clinical practice is inconsistent, and availability of clinician-recorded SLEDAI scores in real-world datasets is limited. This study aimed to validate a machine learning model to estimate SLEDAI score categories using clinical notes and to apply the model to a large, real-world dataset to generate estimated score categories for use in future research studies.

Methods

A machine learning model was developed to estimate an individual patient’s SLEDAI score category (no activity, mild activity, moderate activity or high/very high activity) for a specific encounter date using clinical notes. A training cohort of 3504 encounters and a separate validation cohort of 1576 encounters were created from the OM1 SLE Registry. Model performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calculated using a binarised version of the outcome that sets the positive class to be those records with clinician-recorded SLEDAI scores >5 and the negative class to be records with scores ≤5. Model performance was evaluated by categorising the scores into the four disease activity categories and by calculating the Spearman’s R value and Pearson’s R value.

Results

The AUC for the two categories was 0.93 for the development cohort and 0.91 for the validation cohort. The model had a Spearman’s R value of 0.7 and a Pearson’s R value of 0.7 when calculated using the four disease activity categories.

Conclusion

The model performs well when estimating SLEDAI score categories using unstructured clinical notes.

Disease course following High Disease Activity Status revealed patterns in SLE

BACKGROUND

We sought to examine the disease course of High Disease Activity Status (HDAS) patients and their different disease patterns in a real-world longitudinal cohort. Disease resolution till Lupus Low Disease Activity State (LLDAS) has been a general treatment goal, but there is limited information on this subset of patients who achieve this.

METHODS

All consenting patients of the Monash Lupus Cohort who had at least 12 months of observation were included. HDAS was defined as SLEDAI-2K ≥ 10 ever, and HDAS episode as the period from the first HDAS clinic visit until attainment of LLDAS. We examined the associations of different HDAS patterns with the likelihood of damage accrual.

RESULTS

Of 342 SLE patients, 151 experienced HDAS at least once, accounting for 298 HDAS episodes. The majority of HDAS patients (76.2%) experienced Recurrent HDAS (> 1 HDAS visit), and a smaller subset (47.7%) had Persistent HDAS (consecutive HDAS visits for longer than 2 months). Recurrent or Persistent HDAS patients were younger at diagnosis and more likely to experience renal or serositis manifestations; persistent HDAS patients were also more likely to experience neurological manifestations. Baseline SLEDAI greater than 10 was associated with longer HDAS episodes. Recurrent and Persistent HDAS were both associated with an increased likelihood of damage accrual. The total duration of HDAS episode greater than 2 years and experiencing multiple HDAS episodes (≥4) was also associated with an increased likelihood of damage accrual (OR 1.80, 95% CI 1.08-2.97, p = 0.02, and OR 3.31, 95% CI 1.66-13.26, p = 0.01, respectively).

CONCLUSION

HDAS episodes have a highly variable course. Recurrent and Persistent HDAS, and longer duration of HDAS episodes, increased the risk of damage accrual. In addition to a major signifier of severity in SLE, its resolution to LLDAS can determine the subsequent outcome in SLE patients.

Current Status of the Evaluation and Management of Lupus Patients and Future Prospects

The vastly diverse nature of systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) poses great challenges to clinicians and patients, as well as to research and drug development efforts. Precise management of lupus patients would be advanced by the ability to identify specific abnormalities operative in individual patients at the time of encounter with the clinician. Advances in new technologies and bioinformatics have greatly improved the understanding of the pathophysiology of SLE. Recent research has focused on the discovery and classification of sensitive and specific markers that could aid early accurate diagnosis, better monitoring of disease and identification of appropriate therapy choices based on specific dysregulated molecular pathways. Here, we summarize some of the advances and discuss the challenges in moving toward precise patient-centric management modalities in SLE.

Algorithm for calculating high disease activity in SLE

BACKGROUND

The ability to identify lupus patients in High Disease Activity Status (HDAS) without knowledge of the SLEDAI could have application in selection of patients for treatment escalation or enrolment in trials. We sought to generate an algorithm that could calculate via model fitting the presence of HDAS using simple demographic and laboratory values.

METHODS

We examined the association of High Disease Activity (HDA) with demographic and laboratory parameters using prospectively collected data. An HDA visit is recorded when SLEDAI-2K ≥10. We utilised the use of combinatorial search to find algorithms to build a mathematical model predictive of HDA. Performance of each algorithm was evaluated using multi-class area under receiver operating characteristics (mAUROC) and the final model was compared with the Naïve Bayes Classifier, and analysed using the confusion matrix for accuracy and misclassification rate.

RESULTS

Data on 286 patients, followed for a median of 5.1 years were studied for a total of 5,680 visits. Sixteen laboratory parameters were found to be significantly associated with HDA. A total of 216 algorithms were evaluated and final algorithm chosen was based on 7 pathology measures and 3 demographic variables. It has an accuracy of 88.6% and misclassification rate of 11.4%. When compared with the Naïve Bayes Classifier (AUC = 0.663), our algorithm has a better accuracy with AUC = 0.829.

CONCLUSION

This study shows that building an accurate model to calculate HDA using routinely available clinical parameters is feasible. Future studies to independently validate the algorithm will be needed to confirm its predictive performance.