HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia: where is the epidemic heading?

Mapping the spatial disparities of HIV prevalence in Ethiopian zones using the generalized additive model

HIV is a worldwide social and health pandemic that poses a significant problem. This study contributes to the 2030 global agenda of reducing HIV prevalence. The study analyzed HIV prevalence using the 2016 Ethiopian Demographic and Health Survey data. The study included men aged 15-54 years and women aged 15-49 years who responded to questions about HIV tests. A generalized geo-additive model (GAM) was fitted to HIV data using nonparametric smooth terms for geolocations. Two smoothing techniques were used in GAMs to evaluate spatial disparities and the probable effects of variables on HIV risk. There were certain areas in Ethiopia that were identified as hot spot zones for HIV, including Nuer and Agnuak in Gambella, West Wollega and Illubabor in Oromia, Benchi Maji and Shaka in SNNPR, Awsi, Fantana, Kilbet, and Gabi in the Afar region, Shinilie of the Somalia region, North and South Wollo, Oromia special zones of the Amhara region, Central Ethiopia, and Addis Ababa city. On the other hand, the eastern parts of Ethiopia, particularly most zones in the Somalia region, were identified as cold spot zones with the lowest HIV odds ratio. The odds of HIV+ were higher for those who reside in rural areas than in urban areas. Furthermore, people who have STIs, who used contraceptive methods, and who learned at the secondary level of education were more likely to be infected with HIV. After adjusting for confounding variables, the results indicated that there are substantially significant spatial variations in HIV prevalence across Ethiopian zones. These results provide essential information to strategically target geographic areas to allocate resources and policy interventions at zonal level administrations.

Perceptions of HIV patients on the use of cell phones as a tool to improve their antiretroviral adherence in Northwest, Ethiopia: a cross-sectional study

BACKGROUND

Human immuno deficiency virus (HIV) is one of the most infectious diseases that cause death. A Medication non-adherence in HIV patient has been caused by factors such as not taking medications as prescribed by a physician, withdrawing from medication, missing appointments, and forgetfulness. To improve patients' antiretroviral adherence, supporting them with mobile phone applications is advisable. This study aimed to assess HIV patients' perceptions towards the use of cell phones to improve antiretroviral adherence.

METHODS AND MATERIALS

An institutional-based cross-sectional study was conducted among 423 HIV patients at a comprehensive specialized hospital in northwest Ethiopia from June to July 2022. Study participants were selected using systematic random sampling techniques and the data collection tool was adopted and modified for different literatures. Data were collected through an online data collection tool, and STATA-14 software was used for analysis. Descriptive statistics and binary logistic regression were used. The variables with a P-value equal to or less than 0.2 in bivariable logistic regression were entered into a multivariable logistic regression, and model fitness was assessed.

RESULTS

A total of 410 study subjects have participated, making a response rate of 97%. In this study, 62% (95% CI: 57-67%) of HIV patients had a positive perception regarding the use of mobile phones to improve antiretroviral adherence. Perceived usefulness of mobile phones [AOR = 4.5, (95% CI: 2.2-9.1)], perceived ease of mobile phone use [AOR = 3.9, (95% CI: 2.0-7.5), age [AOR = 3.0, (95% CI: 1.5-6.2)], and educational status [AOR = 5.0, (95% CI: 2.3-10.0)] were significantly associated with HIV patients' perception of mobile phones' use to improve antiretroviral adherence.

CONCLUSIONS

More than half of the respondents had positive perception regarding the use of mobile phones to enhance their adherence to treatment. Perceived usefulness, perceived ease of use, age, and educational status was significantly associated with perception of mobile phone use to enhance antiretroviral therapy adherence. Therefore, the government have to encourage and support patients in incorporating mobile phones into their antiretroviral therapy (ART) follow-up through training.

Unsafe Infant Feeding Practice and Associated Factors Among HIV Positive Mothers Attending PMTCT in Ethiopia: A Cross-Sectional Study

Introduction

Infant feeding practices can have an impact on the health of infants born to HIV-positive mothers. Breastfeeding has significant health advantages for newborns even while it increases the risk of HIV transmission from an HIV-positive mother to her child. One-third to half of child HIV infections in African settings may be linked to breastfeeding. This study was intended to investigate the level of unsafe infant feeding practice and associated factors among HIV positive mothers attending PMTCT at selected governmental hospitals in Afar regional state, Ethiopia, 2022.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was done among 423 HIV positive mothers from February 15 to March 15, 2022 in Afar regional state at selected PMTCT providing governmental hospitals. The proportional allocation was done for samples to be taken from Asayta, Dupti and Mohammed Akle hospitals. A systematic sampling technique was performed to select the study participants. Epidata version 3.1 was used for data entry, and SPSS software version 23 was used for statistical analysis.

Results

The majority, 296 (70.0%), of mothers with HIV-positive were aged between 25 and 34 years. The level of unsafe infant feeding practice among HIV-positive mothers was 153 (36.2%). About 270 (63.8%) mothers exclusively breastfed their infants. In multivariable logistic regression analysis, PNC follow-up (AOR=1.814, 95% CI: (1.127, 2.919)), ART follow-up (AOR=1.987, 95% CI: (1.128, 3.501)), and HIV disclosure status (AOR=2.324, 95% CI: (1.470, 3.673)) were significantly associated with unsafe infant feeding practice among HIV-positive mothers.

Conclusion

The level of unsafe infant feeding practice among HIV-positive mothers was high. PNC follow-up, ART follow-up, and HIV disclosure status were significantly associated with unsafe infant feeding practice among HIV-positive mothers. Comprehensive health educations need to be provided for HIV-positive mothers to reduce this problem.

Prevalence and Associated Factors of Ocular Manifestations of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome Among Adults at University of Gondar Hospital, North West Ethiopia, 2021

Introduction

Acquired immune deficiency syndrome is a disease with common clinical ocular manifestations. Ocular manifestations lead to blindness, which has a common social and economic impact.

Purpose

This study aimed to assess the prevalence and associated factors of ocular manifestations of acquired immune deficiency syndrome among adults at the University of Gondar Hospital, North West Ethiopia, 2021.

Patients and Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted on 401 patients from June to August 2021. Samples were selected based on a systematic random sampling technique. Data collection was done using structured questionnaires. Data extraction format was used to collect the clinical characteristics of patients including ocular manifestations. Data entry was done by EpiData version 4.6.0.6 and exported to the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences version 26 for data analysis. Associated factors were analyzed by binary logistic regression. P-value <0.05 with a 95% confidence level was used to declare a significant association.

Results

A total of 401 patients were involved with a response rate of 91.5%. The overall prevalence of ocular manifestations of acquired immune deficiency syndrome was 28.9%. The common ocular manifestations were seborrheic blepharitis at 16.4% and squamoid conjunctival growth at 4.5%. Age >35 years (AOR=2.52, 95% CI: 1.19, 5.35), Clusters of differentiation 4 count <200 cells/µL (AOR=4.76, 95% CI:2.50, 9.09), World Health Organization stage II (AOR=2.60, 95% CI: 1.23, 5.50), history of eye disease (AOR=3.05, 95% CI: 1.38, 6.72), and duration of Human Immunodeficiency Virus >5 years (AOR=2.79, 95% CI: 1.29, 6.05) were statistically associated with the ocular manifestation of acquired immune deficiency syndrome.

Conclusion and recommendations

In this study, the prevalence of ocular manifestation of acquired immune deficiency syndrome was high. Age, CD4 count, duration of HIV, eye disease history, and WHO clinical staging were the significant factors. Early eye checkups and regular ocular examinations of HIV patients would be helpful.

Progress in health among regions of Ethiopia, 1990-2019: a subnational country analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019

BACKGROUND

Previous Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) studies have reported national health estimates for Ethiopia. Substantial regional variations in socioeconomic status, population, demography, and access to health care within Ethiopia require comparable estimates at the subnational level. The GBD 2019 Ethiopia subnational analysis aimed to measure the progress and disparities in health across nine regions and two chartered cities.

METHODS

We gathered 1057 distinct data sources for Ethiopia and all regions and cities that included census, demographic surveillance, household surveys, disease registry, health service use, disease notifications, and other data for this analysis. Using all available data sources, we estimated the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), total fertility rate (TFR), life expectancy, years of life lost, years lived with disability, disability-adjusted life-years, and risk-factor-attributable health loss with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for Ethiopia's nine regions and two chartered cities from 1990 to 2019. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression, cause of death ensemble model, Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, and other models were used to generate fertility, mortality, cause of death, and disability rates. The risk factor attribution estimations followed the general framework established for comparative risk assessment.

FINDINGS

The SDI steadily improved in all regions and cities from 1990 to 2019, yet the disparity between the highest and lowest SDI increased by 54% during that period. The TFR declined from 6·91 (95% UI 6·59-7·20) in 1990 to 4·43 (4·01-4·92) in 2019, but the magnitude of decline also varied substantially among regions and cities. In 2019, TFR ranged from 6·41 (5·96-6·86) in Somali to 1·50 (1·26-1·80) in Addis Ababa. Life expectancy improved in Ethiopia by 21·93 years (21·79-22·07), from 46·91 years (45·71-48·11) in 1990 to 68·84 years (67·51-70·18) in 2019. Addis Ababa had the highest life expectancy at 70·86 years (68·91-72·65) in 2019; Afar and Benishangul-Gumuz had the lowest at 63·74 years (61·53-66·01) for Afar and 64.28 (61.99-66.63) for Benishangul-Gumuz. The overall increases in life expectancy were driven by declines in under-5 mortality and mortality from common infectious diseases, nutritional deficiency, and war and conflict. In 2019, the age-standardised all-cause death rate was the highest in Afar at 1353·38 per 100 000 population (1195·69-1526·19). The leading causes of premature mortality for all sexes in Ethiopia in 2019 were neonatal disorders, diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, tuberculosis, stroke, HIV/AIDS, ischaemic heart disease, cirrhosis, congenital defects, and diabetes. With high SDIs and life expectancy for all sexes, Addis Ababa, Dire Dawa, and Harari had low rates of premature mortality from the five leading causes, whereas regions with low SDIs and life expectancy for all sexes (Afar and Somali) had high rates of premature mortality from the leading causes. In 2019, child and maternal malnutrition; unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing; air pollution; high systolic blood pressure; alcohol use; and high fasting plasma glucose were the leading risk factors for health loss across regions and cities.

INTERPRETATION

There were substantial improvements in health over the past three decades across regions and chartered cities in Ethiopia. However, the progress, measured in SDI, life expectancy, TFR, premature mortality, disability, and risk factors, was not uniform. Federal and regional health policy makers should match strategies, resources, and interventions to disease burden and risk factors across regions and cities to achieve national and regional plans, Sustainable Development Goals, and universal health coverage targets.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Molecular Epidemiology and Transmission Dynamics of the HIV-1 Epidemic in Ethiopia: Epidemic Decline Coincided With Behavioral Interventions Before ART Scale-Up

Background

Ethiopia is one of the sub-Saharan countries hit hard by the HIV epidemic. Previous studies have shown that subtype C dominates the Ethiopian HIV-1 epidemic, but the evolutionary and temporal dynamics of HIV-1 in Ethiopia have not been closely scrutinized. Understanding the evolutionary and epidemiological pattern of HIV is vital to monitor the spread, evaluate and implement HIV prevention strategies.

Methods

We analyzed 1,276 Ethiopian HIV-1 subtype C polymerase (pol sequences), including 144 newly generated sequences, collected from different parts of the country from 1986 to 2017. We employed state-of-art maximum likelihood and Bayesian phylodynamic analyses to comprehensively describe the evolutionary dynamics of the HIV-1 epidemic in Ethiopia. We used Bayesian phylodynamic models to estimate the dynamics of the effective population size (Ne) and reproductive numbers (Re) through time for the HIV epidemic in Ethiopia.

Results

Our analysis revealed that the Ethiopian HIV-1 epidemic originated from two independent introductions at the beginning of the 1970s and 1980s from eastern and southern African countries, respectively, followed by epidemic growth reaching its maximum in the early 1990s. We identified three large clusters with a majority of Ethiopian sequences. Phylodynamic analyses revealed that all three clusters were characterized by high transmission rates during the early epidemic, followed by a decline in HIV-1 transmissions after 1990. Re was high (4–6) during the earlier time of the epidemic but dropped significantly and remained low (Re &lt; 1) after the mid-1990. Similarly, with an expected shift in time, the effective population size (Ne) steadily increased until the beginning of 2000, followed by a decline and stabilization until recent years. The phylodynamic analyses corroborated the modeled UNAIDS incidence and prevalence estimates.

Conclusion

The rapid decline in the HIV epidemic took place a decade before introducing antiretroviral therapy in Ethiopia and coincided with early behavioral, preventive, and awareness interventions implemented in the country. Our findings highlight the importance of behavioral interventions and antiretroviral therapy scale-up to halt and maintain HIV transmissions at low levels (Re &lt; 1). The phylodynamic analyses provide epidemiological insights not directly available using standard surveillance and may inform the adjustment of public health strategies in HIV prevention in Ethiopia.

Adolescents' Communication on Sexual and Reproductive Health Matters with Their Parents and Associated Factors among Secondary and Preparatory School Students in Ambo Town, Oromia, Ethiopia

Background

Sexual and reproductive health (SRH) communication is most likely to promote healthy sexual practices and to reduce risky sexual behavior among adolescents. Communication is the principal means for parents to transmit sexual values and knowledge to their children. Although there are few studies conducted on parent-adolescent communication, there is no study conducted in the town of Ambo. This study was aimed at assessing the level of parent-adolescent communication on SRH issues and its associated factors among school students in Ambo town, Oromia, Ethiopia.

Method

An institution-based concurrent mixed-method cross-sectional study was conducted among 591 secondary and preparatory school students in Ambo town from February 24^th to March 9^th, 2019. A systematic sampling technique was used to select the study subject. Data were collected through self-administered questionnaires, and FGD was conducted with parents of students. Data was entered using EpiData version 3.1 and exported to SPSS version 23.0 for statistical analysis. Binary and multivariable logistic regression analyses were used to ascertain the association using a 95% confidence interval (CI) and p value (<0.05).

Results

The proportion of students who had communication on sexual and reproductive health issues with their parents was 222 (37.6%). Being female (AOR = 2.07, 95% CI: 1.40-3.07), private school (AOR = 2.77, 95% CI: 1.17-3.69), a father with secondary education (AOR = 2.93, 95% CI: 1.05-8.12) and diploma and above (AOR = 3.27, 95% CI: 1.23-8.71), considering sex education necessary (AOR = 2.83, 95% CI: 1.22-6.57), got information about SRH issues from school (AOR = 2.01, 95% CI: 1.06-2.36) and media (AOR = 2.92, 95% CI: 1.49-3.71), and mother's openness to communicate about SRH issues (AOR = 3.30, 95% CI: 1.31-4.05) were found to be significantly associated with parent-adolescent communication on SRH issues.

Conclusions

The study showed that parent-adolescent communication on SRH issues is low. Being female, those from a private school, father's education, perceived importance of sex education, source of information about SRH issues (school and media), and mother's openness to communicate about SRH issues were identified to be factors associated with the communication. Therefore, the concerned body should consider the identified factors to improve the current level of parent-adolescent communication and adolescent reproductive health.

TB and HIV Epidemiology and Collaborative Service: Evidence from Ethiopia, 2011-2015

Background

Integrating and scaling up tuberculosis (TB) and HIV services are essential strategies to achieve the combined goals ending both TB and HIV, especially in TB and HIV high burden countries. This study aimed to examine the prevalence of TB and HIV co-infection and the implementation of collaborative services in Ethiopia.

Methods

We used a national sentinel surveillance TB/HIV co-infection collected between 2010 and 2015. The Ethiopian Public Health Institute collected and collated the data quarterly from 79 health facilities in nine regional states and two city administrations.

Results

A total of 55,336 people living with HIV/AIDS were screened for active TB between 2011 and 2015. Of these, 7.3% were found co-infected with TB, and 13% TB-negative PLWHA were on isoniazid preventive therapy. Nine out of ten (89.2%) active TB patients were screened for HIV counselling and 17.8% were found to be HIV positive; 78.2% and 53.0% of HIV/TB co-infected patients were receiving cotrimoxazole preventive therapy and antiretroviral treatment, respectively.

Conclusion

This study showed that the prevalence of TB and HIV co-infection failed to decrease over the study period, and that, while there was an increasing trend for integration of collaborative services, this was not uniform over time. Aligning and integrating TB and HIV responses are still needed to achieve the target of ending TB and HIV by 2030.

The yield of community-based tuberculosis and HIV among key populations in hotspot settings of Ethiopia: A cross-sectional implementation study

OBJECTIVE

To determine the yield of tuberculosis (TB) and the prevalence of Human Immuno-deficiency virus (HIV) among key populations in the selected hotspot towns of Ethiopia.

METHODS

We undertook a cross-sectional implementation research during August 2017-January 2018. Trained TB focal persons and health extension workers (HEWs) identified female sex workers (FSWs), health care workers (HCWs), prison inmates, homeless, internally displaced people (IDPs), internal migratory workers (IMWs) and residents in missionary charities as key and vulnerable popuaiton. They carried out health education on the importance of TB screening and HIV testing prior to recruitment of the study participants. Symptomatic TB screening and HIV testing was done. The yield of TB was computed per 100,000 background key population.

RESULTS

A total of 1878 vulnerable people were screened, out of which 726 (38.7%) presumptive TB cases and 87 (4.6%) TB cases were identified. The yield of TB was 1519 (95% CI: 1218.1-1869.9). The highest proportion (19.5%) and yield of TB case (6,286 (95% CI: 3980.8-9362.3)) was among HCWs. The prevalence of HIV infection was 6%, 67 out of 1,111 tested. IMWs and FSWs represented 49.3% (33) and 28.4% (13) of the HIV infections, respectively. There was a statistically significant association of active TB cases with previous history of TB (Adjusted Odds Ratio (AOR): 11 95% CI, 4.06-29.81), HIV infection (AOR: 7.7 95% CI, 2.24-26.40), and being a HCW (AOR: 2.42 95% CI, 1.09-5.34).

CONCLUSIONS

The prevalence of TB in key populations was nine times higher than 164/100,000 national estimated prevalence rate. The prevalence of HIV was five times higher than 1.15% of the national survey. The highest yield of TB was among the HCWs and the high HIV burden was detected among the FSWs and IMWs. These suggest a community and health facility based integrated and enhanced case finding approaches for TB and HIV in hotspot settings.

Risk of childhood mortality associated with death of a mother in low-and-middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Death of a mother at an early age of the child may result in an increased risk of childhood mortality, especially in low-and-middle-income countries. This study aims to synthesize estimates of the association between a mother’s death and the risk of childhood mortality at different age ranges from birth to 18 years in these settings.

Methods

Various MEDLINE databases, EMBASE, and Global Health databases were searched for population-based cohort and case-control studies published from 1980 to 2017. Studies were included if they reported the risk of childhood mortality for children whose mother had died relative to those whose mothers were alive. Random-effects meta-analyses were used to pool effect estimates, stratified by various exposures (child’s age when mother died, time since mother’s death) and outcomes (child’s age at risk of child death).

Results

A total of 62 stratified risk estimates were extracted from 12 original studies. Childhood mortality was associated with child’s age at time of death of a mother and time since a mother’s death. For children whose mother died when they were ≤ 42 days, the relative risk (RR) of dying within the first 1–6 months of the child’s life was 35.5(95%CI:9.7–130.5, p [het] = 0.05) compared to children whose mother did not die; by 6–12 months this risk dropped to 2.8(95%CI:0.7–10.7). For children whose mother died when they were ≤ 1 year, the subsequent RR of dying in that year was 15.9(95%CI:2.2–116.1,p [het] = 0.02), compared to children whose mother lived. For children whose mother died when they were ≤ 5 years of age, the RR of dying before aged 12 was 4.1(95%CI:3.0–5.7),p [het] = 0.83. Mortality was also elevated in specific analysis  among children whose mother died when child was older than 42 days. Overall, for children whose mother died < 6 and 6+ months ago, RRs of dying before reaching adulthood (≤18 years) were 4.7(95%CI:2.6–8.7,p [het] = 0.2) and 2.1(95%CI:1.3–3.4,p [het] = 0.7), respectively, compared to children whose mother lived.

Conclusions

There is evidence of an association between the death of a mother and childhood mortality in lower resource settings. These findings emphasize the critical importance of women in family outcomes and the importance of health care for women during the intrapartum and postpartum periods and throughout their child rearing years.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12889-019-7316-x) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Leveraging Geospatial Approaches to Characterize the HIV Prevention and Treatment Needs of Out-of-School Adolescent Girls and Young Women in Ethiopia

Adolescent girls and young women (AGYW) remain underserved and at risk for HIV acquisition in Ethiopia. However, there is significant risk heterogeneity among AGYW with limited consensus on optimal strategies of identifying vulnerable AGYW. This study assessed the utility of venue-based sampling approaches to identify AGYW at increased risk for HIV infection. Venue mapping and time-location-sampling (TLS) methods were used to recruit AGYW from three sub-cities of Addis Ababa, February–June 2018. Interviewer-administered surveys captured socio-demographic and behavioral characteristics. Measures of AGYW vulnerability were assessed geographically and described by venue type. A total of 2468 unique venues were identified, of which 802 (32%) were systematically selected for validation and 371 (46%) were eligible including many sites that would traditionally not be included as venues in need of HIV prevention services. Overall, 800 AGYW were enrolled across 81 sampled venues. AGYW reached were largely out-of-school (n = 599, 75%) with high proportions of AGYW reporting transactional sex (n = 101, 12.6%), food insecurity (n = 165, 20.7%) and migration (n = 565, 70.6%). Taken together, these data suggest the utility of TLS methods in reaching vulnerable, out-of-school AGYW in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia.

HIV prevalence and risk factors in infants born to HIV positive mothers, measured by dried blood spot real-time PCR assay in Tigray, Northern Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

Infants infected during pregnancy or while breastfeeding requires early HIV diagnosis at 6 weeks after birth to identify HIV infection and timely treatment. The objective of this work was to determine the prevalence and associated risk factors of HIV among HIV exposed infants in the Tigray regional state, Northern Ethiopia.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study was conducted on 350 exposed infants born to HIV seropositive mothers from September 01 to December 30, 2016. Convenient consecutive sampling technique was employed to enroll HIV exposed infants from age 6 weeks to 18 months attending prevention of mother to child transmission (PMCT) clinic at Anti Retroviral Therapy (ART) site facility in Tigray, Ethiopia. Sociodemographic data and associated risk factors were collected using a structured questionnaire. Dried Blood Spot (DBS) samples were collected from each infant and transported by post to Tigray Health Research Institute to detect HIV infection using real-time Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR). Data were entered into EPI Info version 7, exported and analyzed using Statistical Package for Social Sciences (SPSS) version 22. p-value less than 0.05 was deemed to be statistically significant by Fisher's exact test.

RESULTS

Three hundred forty infants (175 males, 165 females) met the criteria for selection during the completion of the study and the overall HIV prevalence was found to be 2.1% (n = 7). The majority of infants were from urban areas (n = 246, 72.4%). 45.5% (5/11, p = 0.001) infants were without ARV prophylaxis, 60% (3/5, p = 0.001) infants born to mothers who did not take maternal PMTCT intervention, 43% (3/7, p = 0.001) infants born to mothers who were not enrolled to ART care, and 6.1% (4/66, p = 0.029) infants of unmarried mothers showed statistically significant difference.

CONCLUSIONS

The overall prevalence of HIV among exposed infants was high but lower than the Millennium Development Goal targets. In order to eliminate the mother to child HIV transmission (MTCT) ARV prophylaxis in infants must be strengthened, and enrollment of HIV positive pregnant women to PMTCT and ART care and treatment is needed.

The Burden of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2016: Evidence from the Global Burden of Diseases 2016 Study

Background

The burden of HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia has not been comprehensively assessed over the last two decades. In this study, we used the 2016 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk factors (GBD) data to analyze the incidence, prevalence, mortality and Disability-adjusted Life Years Lost (DALY) rates of Human Immunodeficiency Virus / Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (HIV/AIDS) in Ethiopia over the last 26 years.

Methods

The GBD 2016 used a wide range of data source for Ethiopia such as verbal autopsy (VA), surveys, reports of the Federal Ministry of Health and the United Nations (UN) and published scientific articles. The modified United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) Spectrum model was used to estimate the incidence and mortality rates for HIV/AIDS.

Results

In 2016, an estimated 36,990 new HIV infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 8775-80262), 670,906 prevalent HIV cases (95% UI: 568,268–798,970) and 19,999 HIV deaths (95% UI: 16426-24412) occurred in Ethiopia. The HIV/AIDS incidence rate peaked in 1995 and declined by 6.3% annually for both sexes with a total reduction of 77% between 1990 and 2016. The annualized HIV/AIDS mortality rate reduction during 1990 to 2016 for both sexes was 0.4%.

Conclusions

Ethiopia has achieved the 50% reduction of the incidence rate of HIV/AIDS based on the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) target. However, the decline in HIV/AIDS mortality rate has been comparatively slow. The country should strengthen the HIV/AIDS detection and treatment programs at community level to achieve its targets during the Sustainable Development Program (SDGs)-era.

Prevalence of Depressive Symptoms and Associated Factors among HIV-Positive Youth Attending ART Follow-Up in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

Depression is most frequently and highly occurring common mental disorder in HIV/AIDS patients especially youth living with HIV/AIDS. This study aimed to assess the prevalence and associated factors of depressive symptoms among youth living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) attending Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) follow-up at public hospitals in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Objective. To assess the prevalence and associated factors of depressive symptoms among youth living with Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) attending Antiretroviral Therapy (ART) follow-up at public hospitals Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2016. Method. In a cross sectional study, 507 HIV-positive young people from public health hospitals were recruited by systematic random sampling technique. Beck Depression Inventory-II was used to assess depressive symptoms. Morisky medication adherence rating scale, social support rating scale, and HIV stigma scale were the instruments used to assess the associated factors. Results. Prevalence of depressive symptoms among HIV-positive youth was 35.5% (95% CI:31.3, 39.6). In multivariate analysis, age range between 20 and 24 years with (AOR=2.22, 95% CI: 1.33,3.62), history of opportunistic infection (AOR=1.94, 95% CI:1.15,3.27), poor medication adherence (AOR=1.73, 95%CI:1.13,2.64, low social support (AOR=2.74, 95%CI:1.13,2.64), moderate social support (AOR=1.75 95% CI: 1.03,2.98), and stigma (AOR=2.06, 95% CI: 1.35,3.14) were associated with depressive symptoms. The results suggest that prevalence of depressive symptoms among HIV-positive youth was high. Prevention of opportunistic infection, stigma, and counseling for good medication adherence are necessary among HIV-positive youth.

Trend of HIV/AIDS for the last 26 years and predicting achievement of the 90-90-90 HIV prevention targets by 2020 in Ethiopia: a time series analysis

BACKGROUND

HIV infection continues to be epidemic of public health importance with a prevalence of 1.1% and incidence of 0.33/1000 population having low-intensity mixed epidemic. Ethiopia has adopted the 90-90-90 by 2020 target but its progress was not yet assessed. Therefore, this study aimed to assess the trend of HIV infection for the last 26 years and to predict the achievements of the 90-90-90 target.

METHODS

We used aggregates of HIV/AIDS indicator data from 1990 to 2016 of UNAIDS data bases. The data were analyzed with excel and STATA. The trend line that best fits the regression was drawn, annual change was estimated and future values of HIV detection rate, coverage of antiretroviral therapy and viral suppression indicators were predicted and compared with the 90-90-90 targets.

RESULT

Since 1995, new infection has declined by 81% and since 2002; number of HIV cases has declined by 35.5%. However, after remarkable decline for decades, since 2008 HIV incidence rate began to rise by 10% and number of new infection diagnosed each year increased by 36% among all ages and doubled among adults. ART coverage has increased by 90% among all age and tripled among pregnant women within 6 years. Nationally, 67% of people living with HIV know their status, 88% of them are on treatment and 86% of people on treatment have viral suppression. As a result, AIDS-related death declined by 77 and 79% among all age and children respectively. By 2020, 79% of people living with HIV will know their HIV status, of which 96-99% of HIV infected people will be on ART and more than 86% will have viral suppression.

CONCLUSION

After remarkable decline, HIV infection started to increase in the last few years among adults. With the current trend, Ethiopia will achieve the second and third 90% HIV targets, while the first target is not achievable and without achieving this overarching goal control of the epidemic will not be achieved. Therefore due attention is needed to avert the current epidemics and diagnosis of cases.

Determinants of CD4 cell count change and time-to default from HAART; a comparison of separate and joint models

BACKGROUND

HIV has the most serious effects in Sub-Saharan African countries as compared to countries in other parts of the world. As part of these countries, Ethiopia has been affected significantly by the disease, and the burden of the disease has become worst in the Amhara Region, one of the eleven regions of the country. Being a defaulter or dropout of HIV patients from the treatment plays a significant role in treatment failure. The current research was conducted with the objective of comparing the performance of the joint and the separate modelling approaches in determining important factors that affect HIV patients' longitudinal CD4 cell count change and time to default from treatment.

METHODS

Longitudinal data was obtained from the records of 792 HIV adult patients at Felege-Hiwot Teaching and Specialized Hospital in Ethiopia. Two alternative approaches, namely separate and joint modeling data analyses, were conducted in the current study. Joint modeling was conducted for an analysis of the change of CD4 cell count and the time to default in the treatment. In the joint model, a generalized linear mixed effects model and Weibul survival sub-models were combined together for the repetitive measures of the CD4 cell count change and the number of follow-ups in which patients wait in the treatment. Finally, the two models were linked through their shared unobserved random effects using a shared parameter model.

RESULTS

Both separate and joint modeling approach revealed a consistent result. However, the joint modeling approach was more parsimonious and fitted the given data well as compared to the separate one. Age, baseline CD4 cell count, marital status, sex, ownership of cell phone, adherence to HAART, disclosure of the disease and the number of follow-ups were important predictors for both the fluctuation of CD4 cell count and the time-to default from treatment. The inclusion of patient-specific variations in the analyses of the two outcomes improved the model significantly.

CONCLUSION

Certain groups of patients were identified in the current investigation. The groups already identified had high fluctuation in the number of CD4 cell count and defaulted from HAART without any convincing reasons. Such patients need high intervention to adhere to the prescribed medication.

Factors affecting first month adherence due to antiretroviral therapy among HIV-positive adults at Felege Hiwot Teaching and Specialized Hospital, north-western Ethiopia; a prospective study

Background

Non-adherence to Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) is one of the factors for treatment failure in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infected patients in developing countries. The main objective of this study was to identify factors for treatment failure among adult HIV patients based on the assessment of first month adherence in the study area.

Methods

The study was conducted using secondary data from antiretroviral unit at Felege Hiwot Teaching and Specialized Hospital. A prospective study was undertaken on 792 randomly selected adult HIV positive patients who have started HAART. The variable of interest, adherence to HAART was categorized as non-adherence if a patient had taken less than 95% of the prescribed medication and this was measured using pill counts. Descriptive statistics, Chi-square tests of association, independent samples t-test and binary logistic regression were used for data analysis.

Results

In first month therapy, 68.2% of the patients belong to adherence group to HAART. As age increases, a patient without cell phone was less likely to be adherent to HAART as compared to patients with cell phone (AOR = 0.661, 95% CI: (0.243, 0.964)). Compared to urban patients, rural patients were less likely to adhere to HAART (AOR = 0.995, 95% CI: (0.403, 0.999)). A patient who did not disclose his/her disease to families or communities had less probability to be adherent to HAART (AOR = 0.325, 95% CI: (0.01, 0.64)). Similarly, a patient who did not get social support (AOR = 0.42, 95% CI: (0,021, 0.473)) had less probability of adherence to HAART. The main reasons for patients to be non-adherent were forgetfulness, side effects, feeling sick and running out of medication.

Conclusion

This study indentified certain groups of patients who are at higher risk and who need counseling. Such groups should be targeted and tailored for improvement of adherence to HAART among HIV positive adults. The health care providers should advise the community to provide social support to HIV positive patients whenever their disease is disclosed. On the other hand, patients should disclose their disease to community to get integrated supports. HIV infected patients who are directed to start HAART should adhere the prescribed medication. For the adherence to be effective, patients who have cell phone should use them as reminder to take pills on time.

Joint longitudinal data analysis in detecting determinants of CD4 cell count change and adherence to highly active antiretroviral therapy at Felege Hiwot Teaching and Specialized Hospital, North-west Ethiopia (Amhara Region)

BACKGROUND

Adherence and CD4 cell count change measure the progression of the disease in HIV patients after the commencement of HAART. Lack of information about associated factors on adherence to HAART and CD4 cell count reduction is a challenge for the improvement of cells in HIV positive adults. The main objective of adopting joint modeling was to compare separate and joint models of longitudinal repeated measures in identifying long-term predictors of the two longitudinal outcomes: CD4 cell count and adherence to HAART.

METHODS

A longitudinal retrospective cohort study was conducted to examine the joint predictors of CD4 cell count change and adherence to HAART among HIV adult patients enrolled in the first 10 months of the year 2008 and followed-up to June 2012. Joint model was employed to determine joint predictors of two longitudinal response variables over time. Furthermore, the generalized linear mixed effect model had been used for specification of the marginal distribution, conditional to correlated random effect.

RESULTS

A total of 792 adult HIV patients were studied to analyze the longitudinal joint model study. The result from this investigation revealed that age, weight, baseline CD4 cell count, ownership of cell phone, visiting times, marital status, residence area and level of disclosure of the disease to family members had significantly affected both outcomes. From the two-way interactions, time * owner of cell phone, time * sex, age * sex, age * level of education as well as time * level of education were significant for CD4 cell count change in the longitudinal data analysis. The multivariate joint model with linear predictor indicates that CD4 cell count change was positively correlated (p ≤ 0.0001) with adherence to HAART. Hence, as adherence to HAART increased, CD4 cell count also increased; and those patients who had significant CD4 cell count change at each visiting time had been encouraged to be good adherents.

CONCLUSION

Joint model analysis was more parsimonious as compared to separate analysis, as it reduces type I error and subject-specific analysis improved its model fit. The joint model operates multivariate analysis simultaneously; and it has great power in parameter estimation. Developing joint model helps validate the observed correlation between the outcomes that have emerged from the association of intercepts. There should be a special attention and intervention for HIV positive adults, especially for those who had poor adherence and with low CD4 cell count change. The intervention may be important for pre-treatment counseling and awareness creation. The study also identified a group of patients who were with maximum risk of CD4 cell count change. It is suggested that this group of patients needs high intervention for counseling.

Quasi-Poisson versus negative binomial regression models in identifying factors affecting initial CD4 cell count change due to antiretroviral therapy administered to HIV-positive adults in North-West Ethiopia (Amhara region)

Background

CD4 cells are a type of white blood cells that plays a significant role in protecting humans from infectious diseases. Lack of information on associated factors on CD4 cell count reduction is an obstacle for improvement of cells in HIV positive adults. Therefore, the main objective of this study was to investigate baseline factors that could affect initial CD4 cell count change after highly active antiretroviral therapy had been given to adult patients in North West Ethiopia.

Methods

A retrospective cross-sectional study was conducted among 792 HIV positive adult patients who already started antiretroviral therapy for 1 month of therapy. A Chi square test of association was used to assess of predictor covariates on the variable of interest. Data was secondary source and modeled using generalized linear models, especially Quasi-Poisson regression.

Results

The patients’ CD4 cell count changed within a month ranged from 0 to 109 cells/mm³ with a mean of 15.9 cells/mm³ and standard deviation 18.44 cells/mm³. The first month CD4 cell count change was significantly affected by poor adherence to highly active antiretroviral therapy (aRR = 0.506, P value = 2e⁻¹⁶), fair adherence (aRR = 0.592, P value = 0.0120), initial CD4 cell count (aRR = 1.0212, P value = 1.54e⁻¹⁵), low household income (aRR = 0.63, P value = 0.671e⁻¹⁴), middle income (aRR = 0.74, P value = 0.629e⁻¹²), patients without cell phone (aRR = 0.67, P value = 0.615e⁻¹⁶), WHO stage 2 (aRR = 0.91, P value = 0.0078), WHO stage 3 (aRR = 0.91, P value = 0.0058), WHO stage 4 (0876, P value = 0.0214), age (aRR = 0.987, P value = 0.000) and weight (aRR = 1.0216, P value = 3.98e⁻¹⁴).

Conclusions

Adherence to antiretroviral therapy, initial CD4 cell count, household income, WHO stages, age, weight and owner of cell phone played a major role for the variation of CD4 cell count in our data. Hence, we recommend a close follow-up of patients to adhere the prescribed medication for achievements of CD4 cell count change progression.

HIV-prevention knowledge among illiterate and low-literate women in rural Amhara, Ethiopia

More than 85% of Ethiopia's population lives in rural areas and literacy levels in the country are relatively low. Despite this, little is known about levels of knowledge in regard to HIV/AIDS and condom use among illiterate and low-literate rural individuals. We conducted a cross-sectional study among 200 illiterate to semi-literate women, ages 13 to 24, from two rural communities in the Amhara region of northwestern Ethiopia. Nearly all the women had heard about HIV and AIDS. Among the illiterate individuals (n = 54), 24% did not know that HIV was the cause of AIDS and 48% did not know that HIV could be transmitted by sexual intercourse without a condom with an HIV-infected person. Among the same group, 59% did not know what a condom is. Literacy had a strong positive association with knowledge of HIV transmission and condoms. Thus, due to a generally higher level of literacy (grade 5-8 attainment), very young women (ages 13-20) had better knowledge of HIV transmission and condoms than did women ages 21-24 who by comparison were less literate. Given poor knowledge of HIV transmission and condoms among illiterate and low-literate women in Amhara, targeted HIV-prevention interventions are needed in this region.

Stigma against people with HIV/AIDS in rural Ethiopia, 2005 to 2011: signs and predictors of improvement

This study sought to determine trends in and factors associated with stigma against people with HIV/AIDS in Ethiopia. Rural data from the 2005 and 2011 Demographic and Health Surveys were analyzed. HIV testing rates among males increased dramatically from 2005 to 2011 (8-35 %). Among females, testing rates dropped 10 % during the same period. HIV knowledge was associated with stigma, shown by a negative correlation in both data waves, but groups with higher knowledge tended to have lower stigma. Lower levels of knowledge were uniformly associated with higher levels of stigma, but higher levels of knowledge, combined with higher levels of education, were associated with lower levels of stigma in a multiplicative way. Improvements in knowledge can serve as an important intermediate process to behavior change. The found interaction suggests improvements in either education or knowledge can reduce stigma, and when both are improved, stigma reduction will be more dramatic.

HIV/AIDS-related information needs of urban and rural residents of northwest Ethiopia: alerting the rural populace and meeting the progressive needs of the urban populace

Urban and rural areas in sub-Saharan Africa are characterized by different HIV/AIDS epidemiological and socio-ecological contexts. Against a backdrop of such variations, the present study assessed the impacts of urbanity vs. rurality on HIV/AIDS-related information needs. Cross-sectional survey data were gathered from 995 respondents in northwest Ethiopia. The findings indicated that urban residents’ concern about and information needs on HIV/AIDS was greater than that of the rural populace. Urban and rural residents were also found to be significantly different in their preferences for specific types of HIV/AIDS-related information. While rurality was found to be associated with a preference for basic HIV transmission and prevention information, urbanity was associated with a preference for information on HIV/AIDS-related care and support. Implications for HIV/AIDS information campaigns are discussed.

Trends in HIV prevalence among young people in generalised epidemics: implications for monitoring the HIV epidemic

Background

Countries measure trends in HIV incidence to assess the impact of HIV prevention and treatment programmes. Most countries have approximated trends in HIV incidence through modelled estimates or through trends in HIV prevalence among young people (aged 15–24 years) assuming they have recently become sexually active and have thus only been recently exposed to HIV.

Methods

Trends in HIV incidence are described and results are compared using three proxy measures of incidence: HIV prevalence among young women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) in 22 countries; HIV prevalence among young male and female nationally representative household survey respondents in 14 countries; and modelled estimates of adult (ages 15–49 years) HIV incidence in 26 countries. The significance of changes in prevalence among ANC attendees and young survey respondents is tested.

Results

Among 26 countries, 25 had evidence of some decline in HIV incidence and 15 showed statistically significant declines in either ANC data or survey data. Only in Mozambique did the direction of the trend in young ANC attendees differ from modelled adult incidence, and in Mali and Zambia trends among young men differed from trends in adult incidence. The magnitude of change differed by method.

Conclusions

Trends in HIV prevalence among young people show encouraging declines. Changes in fertility patterns, HIV-infected children surviving to adulthood, and participation bias could affect future proxy measures of incidence trends.

The genetic architecture of adaptations to high altitude in Ethiopia

Although hypoxia is a major stress on physiological processes, several human populations have survived for millennia at high altitudes, suggesting that they have adapted to hypoxic conditions. This hypothesis was recently corroborated by studies of Tibetan highlanders, which showed that polymorphisms in candidate genes show signatures of natural selection as well as well-replicated association signals for variation in hemoglobin levels. We extended genomic analysis to two Ethiopian ethnic groups: Amhara and Oromo. For each ethnic group, we sampled low and high altitude residents, thus allowing genetic and phenotypic comparisons across altitudes and across ethnic groups. Genome-wide SNP genotype data were collected in these samples by using Illumina arrays. We find that variants associated with hemoglobin variation among Tibetans or other variants at the same loci do not influence the trait in Ethiopians. However, in the Amhara, SNP rs10803083 is associated with hemoglobin levels at genome-wide levels of significance. No significant genotype association was observed for oxygen saturation levels in either ethnic group. Approaches based on allele frequency divergence did not detect outliers in candidate hypoxia genes, but the most differentiated variants between high- and lowlanders have a clear role in pathogen defense. Interestingly, a significant excess of allele frequency divergence was consistently detected for genes involved in cell cycle control and DNA damage and repair, thus pointing to new pathways for high altitude adaptations. Finally, a comparison of CpG methylation levels between high- and lowlanders found several significant signals at individual genes in the Oromo.

Although hypoxia is a major stress on physiological processes, several human populations have survived for millennia at high altitudes, suggesting that they have adapted to hypoxic conditions. Consistent with this idea, previous studies have identified genetic variants in Tibetan highlanders associated with reduction in hemoglobin levels, an advantageous phenotype at high altitude. To compare the genetic bases of adaptations to high altitude, we collected genetic and epigenetic data in Ethiopians living at high and low altitude, respectively. We find that variants associated with hemoglobin variation among Tibetans or other variants at the same loci do not influence the trait in Ethiopians. However, we find a different variant that is significantly associated with hemoglobin levels in Ethiopians. Approaches based on the difference in allele frequency between high- and lowlanders detected strong signals in genes with a clear role in defense from pathogens, consistent with known differences in pathogens between altitudes. Finally, we found a few genome-wide significant epigenetic differences between altitudes. These results taken together imply that Ethiopian and Tibetan highlanders adapted to the same environmental stress through different variants and genetic loci.

Decline in HIV prevalence among young women in Zambia: national-level estimates of trends mask geographical and socio-demographic differences

BACKGROUND

A decline in HIV incidence has been reported in Zambia and a number of other sub-Saharan countries. The trend of HIV prevalence among young people is a good marker of HIV incidence. In this study, different data sources are used to examine geographical and sub-population group differentials in HIV prevalence trends among men and women aged 15-24 years in Zambia.

DESIGN AND METHODS

We analysed ANC data for women aged 15-24 years from 22 sentinel sites consistently covered in the period 1994-2008, and HIV data for young men and women aged 15-24 years from the ZDHS 2001/2 and 2007. In addition, we systematically reviewed peer-reviewed articles that have reported findings on HIV prevalence and incidence among young people.

FINDINGS

Overall trends of the ANC surveillance data indicated a substantial HIV prevalence decline among young women in both urban and rural areas. However, provincial declines differed substantially, i.e. between 10% and 68% among urban women, and from stability to 86% among rural women. Prevalence declines were steeper among those with the highest educational attainments than among the least educated. The ZDHS data indicated a significant reduction in prevalence between the two survey rounds among young women only. Provincial-level ZDHS changes were difficult to assess because the sample sizes were small. ANC-based trend patterns were consistent with those observed in PMTCT-based data (2002-2006), whereas population-based surveys in a selected urban community (1995-2003) suggested that the ANC-based data underestimated the prevalence declines in the general populations of both young both men and women.

CONCLUSION

The overall HIV prevalence declined substantially among young women in Zambia and this is interpreted as indicating a decline in HIV incidence. It is noteworthy that overall national trends masked substantial differences by place and by educational attainment, demonstrating critical limitations in the current focus on overall country-level trends in epidemiological reports.

Strategic Challenges of PMTCT Program Implementation in Ethiopia

Objectives: The objective of this study is to evaluate the achievement of the prevent mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) program and to describe the strategic challenges of its implementation in the the Oromia region, Ethiopia. Methods: PMTCT program reports were collected over a period of 12 months from 25 zones of Oromia region. The health facilities in these zones include 28 hospitals and 84 health centers. The reports were analyzed with regard to international and national policies, guidelines, and priorities. Meanwhile, in-depth interviews were conducted with key informants from the government and an nongovernmental organization (NGO). Results: The reports showed that 72 277 (47%) pregnant women who attended antenatal care were tested for HIV. Although 1461 (65%) HIV-positive women walked away without intervention, 1579 (71%) babies born to HIV-positive mothers did not access prophylactic medicine. Interviews with key informants revealed that stakeholders’ inertia to coordinated action, disconnect between the regional office and service providers at the grassroots, and an unclear national policy on HIV were major challenges to the program. Conclusion: Addressing policy issues and setting clear purposes for all partners need a committed local leadership and program ownership at regional and federal levels.

Effects of a theory-based audio HIV/AIDS intervention for illiterate rural females in Amhara, Ethiopia

In Ethiopia the level of illiteracy in rural areas is very high. In this study, we investigated the effects of an audio HIV/AIDS prevention intervention targeted at rural illiterate females. In the intervention we used social-oriented presentation formats, such as discussion between similar females and role-play. In a pretest and posttest experimental study with an intervention group (n = 210) and control group (n = 210), we investigated the effects on HIV/AIDS knowledge and social cognitions. The intervention led to significant and relevant increases in HIV/AIDS knowledge, self-efficacy, perceived vulnerability to HIV/AIDS infection, response efficacy of condoms and condom use intention. In the intervention group, self-efficacy at posttest was the main determinant of condom use intention, with also a significant contribution of vulnerability. We conclude that audio HIV/AIDS prevention interventions can play an important role in empowering rural illiterate females in the prevention of HIV/AIDS.

Reaching the hearts and minds of illiterate women in the Amhara highland of Ethiopia: Development and pre-testing of oral HIV/AIDS prevention messages

In the style of radio programmes, we developed three episodes of audio HIV prevention education for illiterate women in Ethiopia. We used social-oriented presentation formats, such as discussion between women on HIV prevention, and expert-oriented presentation formats, such as an interview with a male doctor. The aim of this study was to assess the relation between evaluation of presentation formats and overall liking of episodes, which is important for persuasive effects. Thirty women from rural Amhara listened to the episodes and, after listening, female data collectors interviewed the women on evaluation of presentation formats, overall liking of episodes, identification with the characters and convincingness. Evaluation of social-oriented presentation formats was strongly related to overall liking of episodes, but evaluation of expert-oriented presentation formats was not. This relation was mediated through convincingness and not through identification. We conclude that social-oriented presentation formats make messages more convincing and, consequently, improve overall liking and persuasive impact.

Missed opportunities for earlier HIV testing and diagnosis at the health facilities of Dessie town, North East Ethiopia

BACKGROUND

For patients in all health-care settings HIV screening is recommended after the patient is notified that testing will be performed unless the patient declines. The nation's physicians and other health care providers should assume a much more active role in promoting HIV testing. The aim of this study was to investigate the extent to which missed opportunities for earlier HIV testing and diagnosis occur in the health facilities of north east Ethiopia.

METHODS

A confidential client exit interview and medical record review was made on 427 clients who attended health facilities of Dessie town between November-December 2008. Data collection was done by counselors trained on Provider Initiated Counseling and Testing (PICT) and data collection tool included demographics, reason for visit to health facilities, HIV test initiation by service providers, clients self risk perception, clients willingness and acceptance of HIV test, HIV test result and review of client medical records.

RESULTS

Among 427 clients, missed opportunities for HIV testing were found in 76.1% (325) of clients. HIV test initiation was made by data collecting counselors during interview period and 80.0% (260) of clients not initiated by service providers were found to be willing to have HIV test. Large number, 43.0% (112), of the willing clients actually tested for HIV. Of the tested clients, 13.4% (15) were found to be HIV positive. Most, 60% (9), of HIV positive clients who lost the opportunities of diagnosis felt themselves as having no risk for HIV infection. Missed opportunities for HIV diagnosis of 51.7% (15), overall HIV test acceptance rate of 36.5% (154) and positivity rate of 6.9% (29) were found.

CONCLUSIONS

The missed opportunities for earlier HIV test and diagnosis of patients attending health facilities were found to be high and frequent. Testing only clients with HIV risk misses large number of HIV positive patients. Asking clients' willingness for HIV testing should be conducted by all service providers irrespective of the clients' risk behaviors for HIV infection or the type of services they need.

Ethnic differences in sexual behaviour among unmarried adolescents and young adults in Zimbabwe

Understanding the social and cultural contextual determinants of sexual behaviour of adolescents and young adults is an essential step towards curtailing the spread of HIV. This study examined the effects of one cultural factor, ethnicity, on sexual abstinence, faithfulness, condom use at last sex, and risky sex among young people in Zimbabwe. Data from the cross-sectional, population-based 2005-06 Zimbabwe Demographic and Health Survey were used. Net of the effect of sociodemographic and social-cognitive factors, and using multinomial logistic regression, ethnicity was found to have a strong and consistent effect on sexual behaviour among youth. In addition, the study found that there were ethnic-specific and within-gender differences in sexual behaviour, for both men and women. Shona youth were more likely to be abstinent than Ndebele youth. Compared with Shona youth, Ndebele youth were more likely to have engaged in risky sex. However, Ndebele men were more likely have used condoms at last sex, compared with Shona men. For both men and women, sexual behaviour was more socially controlled. School attendance and religion exerted protective effects on sexual abstinence. For men only, those living in rural areas were less likely to be faithful and more likely to have engaged in risky sexual behaviour than those living in urban areas. The study attests to the fact that ethnic norms and ideologies of sexuality need to be identified and more thoroughly understood. In addition, the study provides evidence that in order to promote safe and healthy sexuality among young people in Zimbabwe, cultural, social and gender-specific approaches to the development of HIV prevention strategies should be seriously considered. Current success in the Abstinence, Being faithful and Condom use (ABC) approach could be strengthened by recognizing and responding to cultural forces that reproduce and perpetuate risky sexual behaviours.

Patterns of knowledge and condom use among population groups: results from the 2005 Ethiopian behavioral surveillance surveys on HIV

Background

Behavioral surveys help interpret the magnitude of HIV/AIDS. We analyzed indicators of knowledge on HIV/AIDS and condom use among sub populations selected for behavioral surveillance in Ethiopia.

Methods

We used 2005 HIV/AIDS behavioral data from ten target groups. These were female sex workers, defense forces, police force, pastoralists, truck drivers, intercity bus drivers, road construction workers, teachers, factory workers and people in ANC catchment areas.

Results

Data from 14,524 individuals were analyzed. The majority were males (63.6%). Overall, knowledge of the three preventive methods, misconceptions and comprehensive knowledge was 57%, 75% and 18.5%, respectively. Female sex workers and the defense force showed some behavioral change in using a condom during the most recent sexual encounter and consistently used a condom with non-regular sexual partners and paying partners. Women, pastoralists and the illiterate were less likely to use condom.

Conclusion

Misconceptions about the transmission of HIV were high and comprehensive knowledge about HIV & AIDS was low, particularly among pastoralists. Consistent condom use and condom use during the last sexual encounter were high among both female sex workers and defense force employees, both with paying and non-regular sexual partners. This might be a positive sign, though a considerable proportion in each target group did not report using a condom during sex with non-regular partners.

Estimating the number of HIV infections averted: an approach and its issues

Objective:

To propose a methodology to estimate the number of new HIV infections averted. Knowledge of HIV infection has increased tremendously and modelling tools to project current epidemics into the future have greatly improved. Different types of models can be used to estimate HIV infections averted, although the number of new HIV infections averted cannot be measured directly.

Method:

Using cohort-component population projections, a disease modelling-based approach was used to compare the observed epidemiology of a disease after programme initiation with an expected epidemiology from past trends before programme initiation. The concept of modelling infections averted in a disease modelling-based approach involves a comparison between an “expected” or baseline epidemic with an “estimated” one. A hypothetical example was featured in order to demonstrate the proposed methodology. Using both the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and the Spectrum demographic modelling program, the underlying annual incidence levels implied by both the baseline and estimated epidemics were examined.

Results:

The difference between baseline and estimated incidence levels is interpreted as “infections averted”. Strengths and limitations of the approach are discussed.

Conclusions:

In this study an expected epidemiological approach was compared to one based on observation. Once sufficient data become available, the validation of various country data including HIV prevalence, mortality, and behaviour must be done. Additional information related to behaviour change may be critical to further support arguments for a change in disease trend. It is therefore important to use all available data, consequently strengthening findings from a disease modelling-based approach on HIV infections averted.

Utilization of antiretroviral treatment in Ethiopia between February and December 2006: spatial, temporal, and demographic patterns

BACKGROUND

In 2003, the Ethiopian Ministry of Health (MOH) started to implement a national antiretroviral treatment (ART) program. Using data in the monthly HIV/AIDS Updates issued by the MOH, this paper examines the spatial and temporal distribution of ART on a population basis for Ethiopian towns and administrative zones and regions for the period February to December 2006.

RESULTS

The 101 public ART hospitals treated 44,446 patients and the 91 ART health centers treated 1,599 patients in December 2006. The number of patients currently receiving ART doubled between February and December 2006 and the number of female patients aged 15 years and older surpassed male patients, apparently due to increased awareness and provision of free ART. Of 58,405 patients who ever started ART in December 2006, 46,045 (78.8%) were adhering to treatment during that month. Population coverage of ART was highest in the three urban administrative regions of Addis Ababa, Harari and Dire Dawa, in regional centers with referral hospitals, and in several small road side towns that had former mission or other NGO-operated hospitals. Hospitals in Addis Ababa had the largest patient loads (on average 850 patients) and those in SNNPR (Southern Nations and Nationalities Peoples Republic) (212 patients) and Somali (130 patients) regions the fewest patients. In bivariate tests, number of patients receiving treatment was significantly correlated with population size of towns, urban population per zone, number of hospitals per zone, and duration of ART services in 2006 (all p < 0.001). The stronger relationship with urban than total zonal populations (p < 0.001 versus p = 0.014) and the positive correlation between distance from 44 health centers to the nearest ART hospital and patients receiving treatment at these health centers may be due to a combination of differential accessibility of ART sites, patient knowledge and health-seeking behavior.

CONCLUSION

The sharp increase in ART uptake in 2006 is largely due to the rapid increase in the provision of free treatment at more sites. The marked variation in ART utilization patterns between urban and rural communities and among zones and regions requires further studies. Recommendations are made for further expansion and sustainability of the ART scale-up.

Wealth and sexual behaviour among men in Cameroon

Background

The 2004 Demographic and Health Survey (DHS) in Cameroon revealed a higher prevalence of HIV in richest and most educated people than their poorest and least educated compatriots. It is not certain whether the higher prevalence results partly or wholly from wealthier people adopting more unsafe sexual behaviours, surviving longer due to greater access to treatment and care, or being exposed to unsafe injections or other HIV risk factors. As unsafe sex is currently believed to be the main driver of the HIV epidemic in sub-Saharan Africa, we designed this study to examine the association between wealth and sexual behaviour in Cameroon.

Methods

We analysed data from 4409 sexually active men aged 15–59 years who participated in the Cameroon DHS using logistic regression models, and have reported odds ratios (OR) with confidence intervals (CI).

Results

When we controlled for the potential confounding effects of marital status, place of residence, religion and age, men in the richest third of the population were less likely to have used a condom in the last sex with a non-spousal non-cohabiting partner (OR 0.43, 95% CI 0.32–0.56) and more likely to have had at least two concurrent sex partners in the last 12 months (OR 1.38, 95% CI 1.12–1.19) and more than five lifetime sex partners (OR 1.97, 95% CI 1.60–2.43). However, there was no difference between the richest and poorest men in the purchase of sexual services. Regarding education, men with secondary or higher education were less likely to have used a condom in the last sex with a non-spousal non-cohabiting partner (OR 0.24, 95% CI 0.16–0.38) and more likely to have started sexual activity at age 17 years or less (OR 2.73, 95% CI 2.10–3.56) and had more than five lifetime sexual partners (OR 2.59, 95% CI 2.02–3.31). There was no significant association between education and multiple concurrent sexual partnerships in the last 12 months or purchase of sexual services.

Conclusion

Wealthy men in Cameroon are more likely to start sexual activity early and have both multiple concurrent and lifetime sex partners, and are less likely to (consistently) use a condom in sex with a non-spousal non-cohabiting partner. These unsafe sexual behaviours may explain the higher HIV prevalence among wealthier men in the country. While these findings do not suggest a redirection of HIV prevention efforts from the poor to the wealthy, they do call for efforts to ensure that HIV prevention messages get across all strata of society.

Measuring trends in prevalence and incidence of HIV infection in countries with generalised epidemics

OBJECTIVE

Review of recent data and practice to derive guidance on questions relating to the measurement and analysis of trends in HIV prevalence and incidence.

RESULTS

HIV prevalence among pregnant women attending antenatal clinics (ANCs) remains the principal data source to inform trends in the epidemic. Other data sources are: less available, representative of a small section of the population (sex workers, occupational groups), subject to additional bias (for example, voluntary counselling and testing service statistics), or are not yet available for multiple years (national surveys). Validity of HIV prevalence results may change over time due to improvements in HIV tests per se and implementation of laboratory quality assurance systems. The newer laboratory tests for recent infections require further validation and development of methodology to derive estimates of HIV incidence.

CONCLUSIONS

Issues to consider during statistical analyses of trends among ANC attendees are: inclusion of consistent sites only, use of confidence intervals, stratification by site when performing a statistical test for trend, the need for at least three observations in a surveillance system with data collection every one to two years, and sound judgement. Trends in HIV prevalence among pregnant 15-24 year olds attending ANCs can be used to approximate trends in incidence. Indepth small area research studies are useful to inform the interpretation of surveillance data and provide directly measured trends in prevalence and incidence. Modelling can assess changes over time in prevalence, incidence, and mortality at the same time. Modelling tools need to be further developed to allow incorporation of estimates of HIV incidence and mortality, as these data are likely to become available in the future. To increase their explanatory power, models should also be extended to incorporate programmatic inputs.

Declines in HIV prevalence can be associated with changing sexual behaviour in Uganda, urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether observed changes in HIV prevalence in countries with generalised HIV epidemics are associated with changes in sexual risk behaviour.

METHODS

A mathematical model was developed to explore the relation between prevalence recorded at antenatal clinics (ANCs) and the pattern of incidence of infection throughout the population. To create a null model a range of assumptions about sexual behaviour, natural history of infection, and sampling biases in ANC populations were explored to determine which factors maximised declines in prevalence in the absence of behaviour change. Modelled prevalence, where possible based on locally collected behavioural data, was compared with the observed prevalence data in urban Haiti, urban Kenya, urban Cote d'Ivoire, Malawi, Zimbabwe, Rwanda, Uganda, and urban Ethiopia.

RESULTS

Recent downturns in prevalence observed in urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti, like Uganda before them, could only be replicated in the model through reductions in risk associated with changes in behaviour. In contrast, prevalence trends in urban Cote d'Ivoire, Malawi, urban Ethiopia, and Rwanda show no signs of changed sexual behaviour.

CONCLUSIONS

Changes in patterns of HIV prevalence in urban Kenya, Zimbabwe, and urban Haiti are quite recent and caution is required because of doubts over the accuracy and representativeness of these estimates. Nonetheless, the observed changes are consistent with behaviour change and not the natural course of the HIV epidemic.