Smoking epidemic in Europe in the 21st century

Higher serum prealbumin levels are associated with higher graft take and wound healing in adult burn patients: A prospective observational trial

INTRODUCTION

Nutritional support is essential in burn care. There are few studies investigating the effect of nutrition on burn healing. The purpose of this study was to determine the relationship between perioperative serum prealbumin levels and the probability of autologous skin graft take in burned patients.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A prospective observational study was carried out with burned adults recruited consecutively from April 2019 until September 2021. Serum prealbumin was determined perioperatively. The percentage of graft take was evaluated over the first 5 postoperative dressing changes. Time until full epithelialization (absence of wounds) was also registered.

RESULTS

A total of 60 patients were recruited, mostly middle-aged people with moderate flame burns. Serum prealbumin levels and graft take had a weak-moderate, nonlinear, statistically significant correlation. They were also an independent predictor of full epithelialization on the fifth dressing change, together with burn depth. Higher perioperative serum prealbumin levels were significantly associated with a reduction in time until full epithelialization.

CONCLUSIONS

Perioperative serum prealbumin levels are significantly correlated with the probability of split-thickness skin autograft take in burned patients and with a reduced time to achieve complete epithelialization. They were an independent predictor of full graft take.

Awareness of smoking cessation amongst German vascular surgeons

Background: Smoking represents the well-known enemy of vascular well-being. Numerous previous studies emphasised the important role of smoking on the development and progression of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. The current study aimed to identify hurdles and barriers for an insufficient implementation of secondary prevention in the treatment of lower extremity peripheral arterial disease (PAD). Methods: All members of the German Society for Vascular Surgery and Vascular Medicine (DGG) with valid email addresses were invited to participate in an electronic survey on smoking. Results are descriptively presented. Results: Amongst 2716 invited participants, 327 (12%) submitted complete responses, thereof 33% women and 80% between 30 and 59 years old (87% board certified specialists). 83% were employed by hospitals (56% teaching hospital, 14% university, 13% non-academic) and 16% by outpatient facilities. 6% are active smokers (63% never) while a mean of five medical education activities on smoking cessation were completed during the past five years of practice. Only 27% of the institutions offered smoking cessation programs and 28% of the respondents were aware of local programs while a mean of 46% of their patients were deemed eligible for participation. 63% of the respondents deemed outpatient physicians primarily responsible for smoking cessation, followed by medical insurance (26%). Conclusions: The current nationwide survey of one scientific medical society involved in the care of patients with vascular disease revealed that smoking cessation, although being commonly accepted as important pillar of comprehensive holistic care, is not sufficiently implemented in everyday clinical practice.

First experience with nicotine products and transition to regular tobacco use: a secondary data analysis in 28 European countries

OBJECTIVE

The majority of tobacco users have had their first contact with nicotine at a young age. The aim of this study was to explore the association between the first tobacco or nicotine product tried and the transition to regular product use in 28 European countries.

METHODS

A secondary analysis of participants aged 15-40 years (n=8884) from 28 countries was conducted (Eurobarometer wave 93.2; August-September 2020). Participants who reported having ever tried tobacco or nicotine products were asked which product they tried first. Self-reported history of tobacco use determined whether they were established users (≥1 time weekly) of a range of products at any point in their life. Multilevel logistic regression was used to measure the association between first product tried and becoming a regular user of tobacco or nicotine products.

RESULTS

There was large variation between countries in the proportion of participants aged ≤40 years that ever tried tobacco or nicotine; Estonia had the highest proportion of ever users (85.8%) and Poland had the lowest (38.9%). Among those who had ever tried tobacco or nicotine, boxed cigarettes were the most common first product (72.3%) and pipe was the least common (0.4%). Compared with those who first tried e-cigarettes, the odds of ever becoming a regular user of any tobacco or nicotine product were higher among those who first had hand-rolled cigarettes (adjusted OR, aOR 2.23; 95% CI 1.43 to 3.48) or boxed cigarettes (aOR 2.08; 95% CI1.43 to 3.02) and lower among those who first tried waterpipe (aOR 0.22; 95% CI 0.14 to 0.34).

CONCLUSIONS

Although this study cannot infer causality, the findings show that odds of becoming a regular tobacco user differs widely depending on the first product used. Better understanding of the associations between first product use and regular tobacco use could be informative to tobacco control policy-makers and help tailor prevention programmes.

Subnational inequalities in years of life lost and associations with socioeconomic factors in pre-pandemic Europe, 2009-19: an ecological study

BACKGROUND

Health inequalities have been associated with shorter lifespans. We aimed to investigate subnational geographical inequalities in all-cause years of life lost (YLLs) and the association between YLLs and socioeconomic factors, such as household income, risk of poverty, and educational attainment, in countries within the European Economic Area (EEA) before the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

In this ecological study, we extracted demographic and socioeconomic data from Eurostat for 1390 small regions and 285 basic regions for 32 countries in the EEA, which was complemented by a time-trend analysis of subnational regions within the EEA. Age-standardised YLL rates per 100 000 population were estimated from 2009 to 2019 based on methods from the Global Burden of Disease study. Geographical inequalities were assessed using the Gini coefficient and slope index of inequality. Socioeconomic inequalities were assessed by investigating the association between socioeconomic factors (educational attainment, household income, and risk of poverty) and YLLs in 2019 using negative binomial mixed models.

FINDINGS

Between Jan 1, 2009, and Dec 31, 2019, YLLs lowered in almost all subnational regions. The Gini coefficient of YLLs across all EEA regions was 14·2% (95% CI 13·6-14·8) for females and 17·0% (16·3 to 17·7) for males. Relative geographical inequalities in YLLs among women were highest in the UK (Gini coefficient 11·2% [95% CI 10·1-12·3]) and among men were highest in Belgium (10·8% [9·3-12·2]). The highest YLLs were observed in subnational regions with the lowest levels of educational attainment (incident rate ratio [IRR] 1·19 [1·13-1·26] for females; 1·22 [1·16-1·28] for males), household income (1·35 [95% CI 1·19-1·53]), and the highest poverty risk (1·25 [1·18-1·34]).

INTERPRETATION

Differences in YLLs remain within, and between, EEA countries and are associated with socioeconomic factors. This evidence can assist stakeholders in addressing health inequities to improve overall disease burden within the EEA.

FUNDING

Research Council of Norway; Development, and Innovation Fund of Hungary; Norwegian Institute of Public Medicine; and COST Action 18218 European Burden of Disease Network.

Cancer mortality in Germany-born Americans and Germans

INTRODUCTION

Comparing cancer mortality and associated risk factors among immigrant populations in a host country to those in their country of origin reveals disparities in cancer risk, access to care, diagnosis, and disease management. This study compares cancer mortality between the German resident population and Germany-born individuals who migrated to the US.

METHODS

Cancer mortality data from 2008-2018 were derived for Germans from the World Health Organization database and for Germany-born Americans resident in four states (California, Florida, Massachusetts, and New York) from respective Departments of Vital Statistics. We calculated age-standardized mortality rates (ASMRs) using the European standard population and standardized mortality ratios (SMR) compared to the German resident population along with 95% confidence intervals (CIs).

RESULTS

Germany-born American males had lower ASMRs (253.8 per 100,000) than German resident population (325.6 per 100,000). The difference in females was modest, with ASMRs of 200.7 and 203.7 per 100,000, respectively. For all cancers, Germany-born American males had an SMR of 0.72 (95% CI: 0.70-0.74) and females 0.98 (95% CI: 0.95-1.00). Male SMRs among Germany-born Americans were significantly below one for oral cavity, stomach, colorectal, liver, lung, prostate, and kidney cancer. Among females, SMRs were below one for oral cavity, stomach, colorectal, gallbladder, breast, cervix uteri, and kidney cancer. For both sexes, SMRs were over one for bladder cancer (1.14 for males, 1.21 for females). Mortality was higher for lung cancer (SMR: 1.68), non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (1.18) and uterine cancer (1.22) among Germany-born American females compared to the German resident population.

CONCLUSION

Germany-born American males but not females showed lower cancer mortality than German resident population. Disparities may stem from variations in risk factors (e.g., smoking and alcohol use) as well as differences in screening practices and participation, cancer treatment, besides some residual potential "healthy immigrant effect".

Gains in life expectancy from decreasing cardiovascular disease and cancer mortality - an analysis of 28 European countries 1995-2019

BACKGROUND

Life expectancy (LE) is an indicator of societal progress among rapidly aging populations. In recent decades, the displacement of deaths from cardiovascular disease (CVD) and cancer have been key drivers in further extending LE on the continent, though improvements vary markedly by country, sex, and over time. This study provides a comparative overview of the age-specific contributions of CVD and cancer to increasing LE in the 27 European Union member states, plus the U.K.

METHODS

Cause-by-age decompositions of national changes in LE were conducted for the years 1995-1999 and 2015-2019 based on the standard approach of multiple decrement life tables to quantify the relative impact over time. The contributions of CVD and cancer mortality changes to differences in LE were computed by sex and age for each of the 28 countries. We examine the difference between the member states before 2004 ("founding countries") and those which accessed the EU after 2004 ("A10 countries").

RESULTS

Among men, declines in CVD mortality in the founding countries of the EU were larger contributors to increasing LE over the last decades than malignant neoplasms: 2.26 years were gained by CVD declines versus 1.07 years for cancer, with 2.23 and 0.84 years gained in A10 countries, respectively. Among women in founding countries, 1.81 and 0.54 additional life years were attributable to CVD and cancer mortality declines, respectively, while in A10 countries, the corresponding values were 2.33 and 0.37 years. Lung and stomach cancer in men, and breast cancer in women were key drivers of gains in LE due to cancer overall, though rising mortality rates from lung cancer diminished the potential impact of increasing female LE in both EU founding (e.g., France, Spain, and Sweden) and A10 countries (e.g., Croatia, Hungary, and Slovenia), notably among cohorts aged 55-70 years. Over the 25 years, the LE gap between the two sets of countries narrowed from 6.22 to 5.59 years in men, and from 4.03 to 3.12 years for women, with diminishing female mortality from CVD as a determinative contributor.

CONCLUSION

This study underscores the continued existence of an East-West divide in life expectancy across the EU27 + 1, evident on benchmarking the founding vs. A10 countries. In EU founding countries, continuous economic growth alongside improved health care, health promotion and protection policies have contributed to steady declines in mortality from chronic diseases, leading to increases in life expectancy. In contrast, less favourable mortality trends in the EU A10 countries indicate greater economic and health care challenges, and a failure to implement effective health policies.

Lung cancer mortality in the wake of the changing smoking epidemic: a descriptive study of the global burden in 2020 and 2040

OBJECTIVES

Lung cancer (LC) is the leading cause of cancer death in 2020, responsible for almost one in five (18.0%) deaths. This paper provides an overview of the descriptive epidemiology of LC based on national mortality estimates for 2020 from the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC), and in the context of recent tobacco control policies.

DESIGN AND SETTING

For this descriptive study, age-standardised mortality rates per 100 000 person-years of LC for 185 countries by sex were obtained from the GLOBOCAN 2020 database and stratified by Human Development Index (HDI). LC deaths were projected to 2040 based on demographic changes alongside scenarios of annually increasing, stable or decreasing rates from the baseline year of 2020.

RESULTS

LC mortality rates exhibited marked variations by geography and sex. Low HDI countries, many of them within sub-Saharan Africa, tend to have low levels of mortality and an upward trend in LC deaths is predicted for both sexes until 2040 according to demographic projections, irrespective of trends in rates. In very high HDI countries, including Europe, Northern America and Australia/New Zealand, there are broadly decreasing trends in men whereas in women, rates are still increasing or reaching a plateau.

CONCLUSION

The current and future burden of LC in a country or region largely depends on the present trajectory of the smoking epidemic in its constituent populations, with distinct gender differences in smoking patterns, both in transitioning and transitioned countries. Further elevations in LC mortality are expected worldwide, raising important social and political questions, especially in low-income and middle-income countries.

Trends in Deaths Attributable to Smoking in China, Japan, United Kingdom, and United States From 1990 to 2019

Objectives: This study aimed to estimate the long-term trends of deaths attributable smoking in China, Japan, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US).

Methods: Using 2000–2019 death data from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2019, we estimated age-period-cohort effects on smoking attributable mortality, and decomposed of differences in smoking-attributable deaths in 1990 and 2019 into demographic factors.

Results: From 1990 to 2019, smoking-attributable deaths increased in China, which was due to population growth and demographic aging. From 1990 to 2019, both age-standardized smoking attributable mortality rates trended downward across countries. Among four countries, age rate ratios (RRs) for smoking-attributable mortality increased with age, while period and cohort RRs decreased with year.

Conclusion: The age-standardized mortality rates, period effects and cohort effects of smoking attributable mortality in China, Japan, UK, and US have been declining in both sexes from 1990 to 2019, which suggests that smoke-free policies, help to quit tobacco use, improved health education, more accessible healthcare service, and increased taxes have been effective. Additionally, increased smoking attributable deaths in elderly should got more attention.

Trends in age- and sex-specific lung cancer mortality in Europe and Northern America: Analysis of vital registration data from the WHO Mortality Database between 2000 and 2017

BACKGROUND

In the context of new targeted therapies and immunotherapy as well as screening modalities for lung cancer patients, detailed mortality trends in Europe and Northern America are unknown.

METHODS

Time-trend analysis using vital registration data of Northern America and Europe from the WHO Mortality Database (years 2000/2017). To assess improvements in lung cancer mortality, we performed a population-averaged Poisson autoregressive analysis. The average annual percent change (AAPC) was used as a summary measure of overall and country-specific trends in mortality. Second, we studied time trends of lung cancer incidence and smoking prevalence rates.

FINDINGS

In the total population of 872·5 million people between 2015 and 2017, the average annual age-standardised mortality from lung cancer was 54·6 deaths per 100 000, with substantial differences across countries. Lung cancer was reported as the primary cause of death in 5·4 cases per 100 deaths. The age-standardised mortality rate decreased constantly (AAPC -1·5%) between 2000 and 2017. While mortality in men dropped annually by an average of -2·3%, mortality in women decreased by an average of -0·3%. This slight decline was driven exclusively by the USA. In contrast, 21 out of 31 countries registered a significant increase in female lung cancer mortality between 2000 and 2017, with Spain (AAPC 4·1%) and France (AAPC 3·6%) leading the list.

INTERPRETATION

Despite overall decreases in lung cancer mortality trends, female mortality remained unchanged or increased significantly in all countries except the USA. National mortality outcomes reflect variabilities in tobacco control, screening, therapeutic advances, and access to health care.

Changes in Attitudes toward Tobacco Smoking and Factors Associated with Quitting in 9-Year Observation of PURE Poland Cohort Study

(1) Background: This study aims to examine changes in tobacco smoking prevalence in the PURE Poland cohort study over the 9-year follow-up period. Moreover, it attempts to identify socio-demographic factors that affect changes in attitudes towards tobacco smoking. (2) Methods: The PURE Poland cohort study—baseline was performed in 2007–2010 and covered 2036 participants, including urban (59.4%) and rural (40.6%) residents of Lower Silesia, Poland. The following study reports the results of 1690 participants who took part in both the baseline (2007–2010) study and 9-year follow-up (2016–2019). (3) Results: There was a 3.5% decrease in current smokers during the analyzed period (from 20.2% at the baseline study to 16.7% in the 9-year follow-up). Living in rural area increased the likelihood of being a current smoker by more than 1.5-fold (OR = 1.65 CI = 1.26–2.14) and decreased the likelihood of being a former smoker (OR = 0.70 CI = 0.57–0.86). In the 9-year follow-up period, more women were current smokers than men (17.2% vs. 16.0%) and women had lower chances of being former smokers than men (OR = 0.77 CI = 0.62–0.95). People with a primary education had 1.5-fold higher likelihood of being a current smoker (OR = 1.45 CI = 1.03–2.05). Nearly 11% significant increase in the percentage of current smokers was observed in the oldest age group (1.9% in the baseline study vs. 12.6% in the follow-up period). (4) Conclusions: The results obtained during 9 years of observation indicate the necessity of intensifying anti-tobacco programs especially targeting women, elderly population, people with lower level of education, rural residents, and the unemployed.

Smoking Behavior among Adolescents: The Lebanese Experience with Cigarette Smoking and Waterpipe Use

(1) Background: The study aims to assess cigarette smoking and waterpipe experimentation among Lebanese adolescent school students with respect to their gender, region, age, and socioeconomic status. (2) Methods: This is a cross-sectional study, where students between 11 to 18 years of age were included from all over Lebanon. (3) Results: A total of 1133 students were interviewed. The total proportion of adolescents who ever experimented with cigarette smoking was 24.5%. Males experimented with cigarette smoking more commonly than females (31.9% vs. 19.1%; p < 0.001). Cigarette smoking experimentation was higher among students from the Beirut area (33.6%; p < 0.001) in comparison to other regions, and among those with poor health perception (29.1% vs. 19.8%; p < 0.001) compared to students with excellent health perception. The total proportion of adolescents who ever used a waterpipe was 33.9%. Waterpipes were significantly more experimented with among males than females (40.3% vs. 29.8%; p < 0.001), and among students with bad perception about their health (39.4% vs. 28.9%; p < 0.001). Adolescents who experimented with both cigarettes and waterpipes constitute 22.2% of the studied sample. (4) Conclusions: The rate of tobacco product use is alarming and constitutes a major public health issue for adolescents that urgently needs intervention. The findings raise important policy implications for the development of cigarette smoking prevention programs for youth.

Gender and tobacco epidemic in South Korea: implications from age-period-cohort analysis and the DPSEEA framework

OBJECTIVES

To understand a 20-year trend of gender-specific smoking prevalence among adults in South Korea.

DESIGN

Age-period-cohort analysis using the intrinsic estimator method was applied to examine the separate contribution of age, period and cohort effect on smoking prevalence. The Driving Force-Pressure-State-Exposure-Effect-Action (DPSEEA) framework was used to explain the observed smoking trends by mapping potential determinants and to address policy implications.

SETTING

General adult population in South Korea.

PARTICIPANTS

34 828 men and 43 632 women who aged 19-78 years, were not currently pregnant and were without a prior diagnosis of cardiovascular disease or cancer.

OUTCOME MEASURES

Gender-specific current smoking prevalence using the 1998-2017 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey.

RESULTS

Our results showed gender-specific age and birth cohort effects. More specifically, the smoking prevalence peaked at their mid-20s (prevalence rate ratio (PRR): 1.54, 95% CI: 1.49 to 1.59) and cohort born in 1959-1963 (PRR: 1.63, 95% CI: 1.57 to 1.70) and then decreased in men. On the other hand, in women, the smoking prevalence consistently increased until their mid-40s (PRR: 1.53, 95% CI: 1.27 to 1.84) and in recent birth cohort groups (PRR in 1994-1998 cohort: 1.55, 95% CI: 1.13 to 2.13). The period effects declined from 1998-2002 to 2003-2007, following increasing fluctuations in both genders. The smoking-DPSEEA framework showed the absence of policy actions to target female smokers and emphasised a proactive approach that tackles the upstream causes for smoking in women.

CONCLUSIONS

Men and women are clearly in different phases of the smoking epidemic in Korean population, and gender-tailored policies should be implemented.

Predictors of Nutritional Status, Depression, Internet Addiction, Facebook Addiction, and Tobacco Smoking Among Women With Eating Disorders in Spain

Eating disorders (EDs) are a complex group of psychiatric conditions that involve dysfunctional eating patterns, nutritional alterations, and other comorbid psychopathologies. Some women with EDs may develop problematic internet use while they attempt to get information on dieting/weight control or get online support from people with similar problems. They may also drift toward tobacco smoking as a method to regulate their weight or to cope with their weight-related dysphoria. The occurrence of these conditions in EDs may prolong disease course and impede recovery. This study used structural equation modeling to investigate nutritional status (noted by body mass index, BMI), depression psychopathology, internet addiction (depicted by the Internet Addiction Test), Facebook addiction (depicted by the Bergen Facebook Addiction Scale), and smoking among 123 Spanish women diagnosed with EDs (mean age = 27.3 ± 10.6 years). History of hospitalization, marital status, age, and the level of education predicted BMI in certain ED groups. BMI did not predict depression, but it predicted internet addiction, Facebook addiction, and smoking in certain ED groups. Depression did not predict BMI, internet/Facebook addition, or smoking in any ED group. Some sociodemographic and clinical variables had indirect effects on depression, internet addiction, and Facebook addiction while age was the only variable expressing a direct effect on all outcome measures. Age, education, and history of prolonged treatment predicted smoking in certain ED patients. The findings signify that a considerable target for interventional strategies addressing nutritional and addictive problems in EDs would be women with high BMI, history of hospitalization, history of prolonged treatment, who are particularly young, single, and less educated. Replication studies in larger samples, which comprise various subtypes of EDs from both genders, are warranted to define the exact interaction among the addressed variables.

Causes of Sickness Absenteeism in Europe-Analysis from an Intercountry and Gender Perspective

This study aims to extract and explain the territorially varied relation between socioeconomic factors and absence rate from work due to own illness or disability in European countries in the years 2006-2020. For this purpose, several causes were identified, depending on men and women. To explain the absenteeism and emphasize gender as well as intercountry differences, geographically weighted regression was applied. For men, there were five main variables that influenced sickness absence: body mass index, the average rating of satisfaction by job situation, employment in the manufacturing sector, social benefits by sickness/health care, and performing health-enhancing physical activity. For women, there were five main variables that increased the absence rate: the risk of poverty or social exclusion, long-standing illness or health problems, employment in the manufacturing sector, social protection benefits, and deaths due to pneumonia. Based on the conducted research, it was proven that the sickness absence observed in the analyzed countries was highly gender and spatially diverged. Understanding the multifactorial factors playing an important role in the occurrence of regional and gender-divergent sickness absence may be a good predictor of subsequent morbidity and mortality as well as be very useful to better prevent this outcome.

A Divide between the Western European and the Central and Eastern European Countries in the Peripheral Vascular Field: A Narrative Review of the Literature

Thirty years after the transition period, starting from 1989, Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs), representing one-fifth of the entire European population, share many historical, societal, political, economic, and cultural characteristics. Although accumulating data on coronary heart diseases and cerebrovascular diseases support these observations, in the case of peripheral arterial disease, data are scarce. The present review attempts to summarise the shreds of data that may highlight a divide in this field between CEECs and Western European countries. Disparities in risk factors and peripheral vascular care across Europe seem to be tangible and can be seen as a signal of existing differences. Improvements in research and development and the collection and cross-border share of scientific data are essential to initiate and facilitate convergence in this field.

The prospective GermanVasc cohort study

Background: Previous observational studies reported a wide variation and possible room for improvement in the treatment of patients suffering from symptomatic peripheral artery disease (PAD). Yet, systematic assessment of everyday clinical practice is lacking. A General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR) compliant registry was developed and used to collect comprehensive data on clinical treatment and outcomes regarding PAD in Germany. Here, we report baseline characteristics of patients prospectively enrolled until the end of 2020. Methods: The GermanVasc registry study is a prospective longitudinal multicentre cohort study. Between 1^st May 2018 and 31^st December 2020, invasive endovascular, open-surgical, and hybrid revascularisations of patients suffering from chronic symptomatic PAD were prospectively included after explicit informed consent (NCT03098290). For ensuring high quality of the data, we performed comprehensive risk-based and random-sample external and internal validation. Results: In total, 5608 patients from 31 study centres were included (34% females, median 69 years). On-site monitoring visits were performed at least once in all centres. The proportion of chronic limb-threatening ischaemia was 30% and 13% were emergent admissions. 55% exhibited a previous revascularisation. Endovascular techniques made 69% among all documented invasive procedures (n=6449). Thirty-five percent were classified as patients with severe systemic disease, and 3% exhibited a constant threat to life according to the American Society of Anaesthesiologists classification. The risk profile comprised of 75% former or current smokers, 36% diabetes mellitus, and in 30% a current ischemic heart disease was present. At discharge, 93% of the patients received antiplatelets and 77% received statins. Conclusions: The GermanVasc registry study provides insights into real-world practice of treatment and outcomes of 5,608 patients with symptomatic PAD in Germany. The cohort covers a broader range of disease severity and types of interventions than usually found in trials. In future studies, comparative outcomes will be analysed in more detail.

Future life expectancy in Europe taking into account the impact of smoking, obesity, and alcohol

Introduction: In Europe, women can expect to live on average 82 years and men 75 years. Forecasting how life expectancy will develop in the future is essential for society. Most forecasts rely on a mechanical extrapolation of past mortality trends, which leads to unreliable outcomes because of temporal fluctuations in the past trends due to lifestyle 'epidemics'. Methods: We project life expectancy for 18 European countries by taking into account the impact of smoking, obesity, and alcohol on mortality, and the mortality experiences of forerunner populations. Results: We project that life expectancy in these 18 countries will increase from, on average, 83.4 years for women and 78.3 years for men in 2014 to 92.8 years for women and 90.5 years for men in 2065. Compared to others (Lee-Carter, Eurostat, United Nations), we project higher future life expectancy values and more realistic differences between countries and sexes. Conclusions: Our results imply longer individual lifespans, and more elderly in society. Funding: Netherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO) (grant no. 452-13-001).

A Field-Based Study of the Magnitude of Risk Factors and Health Habits in Young Volunteers in the Community

Objective

A field study is more informative in terms of epidemiological data than a hospital-based study. Undiagnosed risk factors may be discovered in an asymptomatic group. This study aimed to estimate if the community was well informed about the risk factors for coronary artery disease and if that affected the prevalence and the anthropometric among those who participated in the study.

Materials and methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted, using a consecutive sampling technique. Individuals were interviewed in terms of the risk factors and clinical signs and symptoms. The anthropometric measurements were done on-site to identify asymptomatic risk factors. The survey was utilized to increase the awareness among the participants.

Results

In total, 193 individuals participated in this study. The mean age of the sample was 36.3 ± 12.4 years, with 53% male. Smoking was the most frequent risk factor (31.6%), followed by dyslipidemia (22.5%), hypertension (16.6%), and diabetes mellitus (14.5%). Almost half of the sample participated in sports for one to two hours per week (40%). Almost all consumed fast food at least once a week, and 16.6% consumed fast food more than four times a week. The average systolic blood pressure was 129.41 ± 22.5 mmHg and the average body mass index (BMI) 27.6 ± 7.2 kg/m2.

Conclusion

Dyslipidemia was the most prevalent risk factor. Hypertension and diabetes mellitus are on top of the risk factor pyramid in commonality. An early diagnosis is important to decrease the incidence of cardiovascular disease. The consumption of fast food and obesity are relatively high and require educational interventions and more available healthy food. Screening through social media and primary health care centers may avert a negative outcome.

Future Alcohol-Attributable Mortality in France Using a Novel Generalizable Age-Period-Cohort Projection Methodology

AIM

To forecast age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality in France for the period 2015-2050 using a novel generalizable methodology that includes different scenarios regarding period and cohort change.

METHODS

For the French national population aged 25-90 years (1979-2014), we estimated alcohol-attributable mortality by mortality from the main causes of death wholly attributable to alcohol, plus liver cirrhosis mortality. We modelled sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality by adjusting for age, period and birth cohort. We forecasted the model parameters to obtain future age- and sex-specific alcohol-attributable mortality up until 2050 using a conventional baseline, scenario I (favourable period change) and scenario II (unfavourable cohort change).

RESULTS

Alcohol-attributable mortality is clearly declining in France, with the decline decelerating from 1992 onwards. In 2014, the age-standardized alcohol-attributable mortality rates, in deaths per 100,000, were 34.7 among men and 9.9 among women. In 2050, the estimated rates are between 10.5 (prediction interval: 7.6-14.4; scenario I) and 17.6 (13.1-23.7; scenario II) among men, and between 1.1 (0.7-1.7; scenario I) and 1.8 (1.2-2.9; scenario II) among women; which implies declines of 58% for men and 84% for women (baseline).

CONCLUSION

Alcohol-attributable mortality in France is expected to further decline in the coming decades, accompanied by age pattern changes. However, France's levels are not expected to reach the current lower levels in Italy and Spain for 15 years or more. Our results point to the value of implementing preventive policy measures that discourage alcohol consumption among people of all ages, but especially among adolescents.