From poops to planning: A broad non-invasive genetic survey of large mammals from the Indian Himalayan Region

Large forested landscapes often harbour significant amount of biodiversity and support mankind by rendering various livelihood opportunities and ecosystem services. Their periodic assessment for health and ecological integrity is essential for timely mitigation of any negative impact of human use due to over harvesting of natural resources or unsustainable developmental activities. In this context, monitoring of mega fauna may provide reasonable insights about the connectivity and quality of forested habitats. In the present study, we conducted a largest non-invasive genetic survey to explore mammalian diversity and genetically characterized 13 mammals from the Indian Himalayan Region (IHR). We analyzed 4806 faecal samples using 103 autosomal microsatellites and with three mitochondrial genes, we identified 37 species of mammal. We observed low to moderate level of genetic variability and most species exhibited stable demographic history. We estimated an unbiased population genetic account (PGA_unbias) for 13 species that may be monitored after a fixed time interval to understand species performance in response to the landscape changes. The present study has been evident to show pragmatic permeability with the representative sampling in the IHR in order to facilitate the development of species-oriented conservation and management programmes.

Age‐specific, population‐level pedigree of wild black bears provides insights into reproduction, paternity, and maternal effects on offspring apparent survival

Wildlife pedigrees provide insights into ecological and evolutionary processes. DNA obtained from noninvasively collected hair is often used to determine individual identities for pedigrees and other genetic analyses. However, detection rates associated with some noninvasive DNA studies can be relatively low, and genetic data do not provide information on individual birth year. Supplementing hair DNA stations with video cameras should increase the individual detection rate, assuming accurate identification of individuals via video data. Video data can also provide birth year information for individuals captured as young of the year, which can enrich population‐level pedigrees. We placed video cameras at hair stations and combined genetic and video data to reconstruct an age‐specific, population‐level pedigree of wild black bears during 2010–2020. Combining individual birth year with mother–offspring relatedness, we also estimated litter size, interlitter interval, primiparity, and fecundity. We used the Cormack‐Jolly‐Seber model in Program Mark to evaluate the effect of maternal identity on offspring apparent survival. We compared model rankings of apparent survival and parameter estimates based on combined genetic and video data with those based on only genetic data. We observed 42 mother–offspring relationships. Of these, 21 (50%) would not have been detected had we used hair DNA alone. Moreover, video data allowed for the cub and yearling age classes to be determined. Mean annual fecundity was 0.42 (95% CI: 0.27, 0.56). Maternal identity influenced offspring apparent survival, where offspring of one mother experienced significantly lower apparent survival (0.39; SE = 0.15) than that of offspring of four other mothers (0.89–1.00; SE = 0.00–0.06). We video‐documented cub abandonment by the mother whose offspring experienced low apparent survival, indicating individual behaviors (e.g., maternal care) may scale up to affect population‐level parameters (e.g., cub survival). Our findings provide insights into evolutionary processes and are broadly relevant to wildlife ecology and conservation.

A novel mark-recapture-recovery survey using genetic sampling for polar bears Ursus maritimus in Baffin Bay

Changes in sea-ice dynamics are affecting polar bears Ursus maritimus across their circumpolar range, which highlights the importance of periodic demographic assessments to inform management and conservation. We used genetic mark-recapture-recovery to derive estimates of abundance and survival for the Baffin Bay (BB) polar bear subpopulation—the first time this method has been used successfully for this species. Genetic data from tissue samples we collected via biopsy darting were combined with historical physical capture and harvest recovery data. The combined data set consisted of 1410 genetic samples (2011-2013), 914 physical captures (1993-1995, 1997), and 234 harvest returns of marked bears (1993-2013). The estimate of mean subpopulation abundance was 2826 (95% CI = 2284-3367) in 2012-2013. Estimates of annual survival (mean ± SE) were 0.90 ± 0.05 and 0.78 ± 0.06 for females and males age ≥2 yr, respectively. The proportion of total mortality of adult females and males that was attributed to legal harvest was 0.16 ± 0.05 and 0.26 ± 0.06, respectively. Remote sensing sea-ice data, telemetry data, and spatial distribution of onshore sampling indicated that polar bears were more likely to use offshore sea-ice habitat during the 1990s sampling period compared to the 2010s. Furthermore, in the 1990s, sampling of deep fjords and inland areas was limited, and no offshore sampling occurred in either time period, which precluded comparisons of abundance between the 1993-1997 and 2011-2013 study periods. Our findings demonstrate that genetic sampling can be a practical method for demographic assessment of polar bears over large spatial and temporal scales.

Working Together for Grizzly Bears: A Collaborative Approach to Estimate Population Abundance in Northwest Alberta, Canada

Grizzly bears are a threatened species in Alberta, Canada, and their conservation and management is guided by a provincial recovery plan. While empirical abundance and densities estimates have been completed for much of the province, empirical data are lacking for the northwest region of Alberta, a 2.8 million hectare area called Bear Management Area 1 (BMA 1). In part, this is due to limited staff capacity and funding to cover a vast geographic area, and a boreal landscape that is difficult to navigate. Using a collaborative approach, a multi-stakeholder working group called the Northwest Grizzly Bear Team (NGBT) was established to represent land use and grizzly bear interests across BMA 1. Collectively, we identified our project objectives using a Theory of Change approach, to articulate our interests and needs, and develop common ground to ultimately leverage human, social, financial and policy resources to implement the project. This included establishing 254 non-invasive genetic hair corral sampling sites across BMA 1, and using spatially explicit capture-recapture models to estimate grizzly bear density. Our results are two-fold: first we describe the process of developing and then operating within a collaborative, multi-stakeholder governance arrangement, and demonstrate how our approach was key to both improving relationships across stakeholders but also delivering on our grizzly bear project objectives; and, secondly we present the first-ever grizzly bear population estimate for BMA 1, including identifying 16 individual bears and estimating density at 0.70 grizzly bears/1,000 km2-the lowest recorded density of an established grizzly bear population in Alberta. Our results are not only necessary for taking action on one of Alberta's iconic species at risk, but also demonstrate the value and power of collaboration to achieve a conservation goal.

Managing salmon for wildlife: Do fisheries limit salmon consumption by bears in small Alaskan streams?

Ecosystem-based management requires consideration of overlapping resource use between humans and other consumers. Pacific salmon are an important resource for both fisheries and populations of wildlife around the Pacific rim, including coastal brown bears (Ursus arctos); salmon consumption has been positively linked to bear density, body size, and reproductive rate. As a case study within the broader context of human-wildlife competition for food, we used 16-22 yr of empirical data in four different salmon-bearing systems in southwestern Alaska to explore the relationship between sockeye salmon (Oncorhynchus nerka) availability and consumption by bears. We found a negative relationship between the annual biomass of salmon available to bears and the fraction of biomass consumed per fish, and a saturating relationship between salmon availability and the total annual biomass of salmon consumed by bears. Under modeled scenarios, bear consumption of salmon was predicted to increase only with dramatic (on the order of 50-100%) increases in prey availability. Even such large increases in salmon abundance were estimated to produce relatively modest increases in per capita salmon consumption by bears (2.4-4.8 kg·bear^-1 ·d^-1 , 15-59% of the estimated daily maximum per capita intake), in part because bears did not consume salmon entirely, especially when salmon were most available. Thus, while bears catching salmon in small streams may be limited by salmon harvest in some years, current management of the systems we studied is sufficient for bear populations to reach maximum salmon consumption every 2-4 yr. Consequently, allocating more salmon for brown bear conservation would unlikely result in an ecologically significant response for bears in these systems, though other ecosystem components might benefit. Our results highlight the need for documenting empirical relationships between prey abundance and consumption, particularly in systems with partial consumption, when evaluating the ecological response of managing prey resources for wildlife populations.

Using bear rub data and spatial capture-recapture models to estimate trend in a brown bear population

Trends in population abundance can be challenging to quantify during range expansion and contraction, when there is spatial variation in trend, or the conservation area is large. We used genetic detection data from natural bear rubbing sites and spatial capture-recapture (SCR) modeling to estimate local density and population growth rates in a grizzly bear population in northwestern Montana, USA. We visited bear rubs to collect hair in 2004, 2009-2012 (3,579-4,802 rubs) and detected 249-355 individual bears each year. We estimated the finite annual population rate of change 2004-2012 was 1.043 (95% CI = 1.017-1.069). Population density shifted from being concentrated in the north in 2004 to a more even distribution across the ecosystem by 2012. Our genetic detection sampling approach coupled with SCR modeling allowed us to estimate spatially variable growth rates of an expanding grizzly bear population and provided insight into how those patterns developed. The ability of SCR to utilize unstructured data and produce spatially explicit maps that indicate where population change is occurring promises to facilitate the monitoring of difficult-to-study species across large spatial areas.

Genetic and genomic monitoring with minimally invasive sampling methods

The decreasing cost and increasing scope and power of emerging genomic technologies are reshaping the field of molecular ecology. However, many modern genomic approaches (e.g., RAD-seq) require large amounts of high-quality template DNA. This poses a problem for an active branch of conservation biology: genetic monitoring using minimally invasive sampling (MIS) methods. Without handling or even observing an animal, MIS methods (e.g., collection of hair, skin, faeces) can provide genetic information on individuals or populations. Such samples typically yield low-quality and/or quantities of DNA, restricting the type of molecular methods that can be used. Despite this limitation, genetic monitoring using MIS is an effective tool for estimating population demographic parameters and monitoring genetic diversity in natural populations. Genetic monitoring is likely to become more important in the future as many natural populations are undergoing anthropogenically driven declines, which are unlikely to abate without intensive adaptive management efforts that often include MIS approaches. Here, we profile the expanding suite of genomic methods and platforms compatible with producing genotypes from MIS, considering factors such as development costs and error rates. We evaluate how powerful new approaches will enhance our ability to investigate questions typically answered using genetic monitoring, such as estimating abundance, genetic structure and relatedness. As the field is in a period of unusually rapid transition, we also highlight the importance of legacy data sets and recommend how to address the challenges of moving between traditional and next-generation genetic monitoring platforms. Finally, we consider how genetic monitoring could move beyond genotypes in the future. For example, assessing microbiomes or epigenetic markers could provide a greater understanding of the relationship between individuals and their environment.

Genetic Mark–Recapture Improves Estimates of Maternity Colony Size for Indiana Bats

Genetic mark–recapture methods are increasingly being used to estimate demographic parameters in species where traditional techniques are problematic or imprecise. The federally endangered Indiana bat Myotis sodalis has declined dramatically and threats such as white-nose syndrome continue to afflict this species. To date, important demographic information for Indiana bats has been difficult to estimate precisely using traditional techniques such as emergence counts. Successful management and protection of Indiana bats requires better methods to estimate population sizes and survival rates throughout the year, particularly during summer when these bats reproduce and are widely dispersed away from their winter hibernacula. In addition, the familial makeup of maternity colonies is unknown, yet important for understanding local and regional population dynamics. We had four objectives in this study. For the first two objectives we investigated the potential use of DNA from fecal samples (fecal DNA) collected at roosts to obtain genetically based mark–recapture estimates of 1) colony size and 2) survival rates, for an Indiana bat maternity colony in Indianapolis, Indiana. The third objective was to compare our genetically based colony-size estimates with emergence counts conducted at the same roost tree to evaluate the genetic mark–recapture method. Our fourth objective was to use fecal DNA to estimate levels of relatedness among individuals sampled at the roost. In the summer of 2008, we collected fecal pellets and conducted emergence counts at a prominent roost tree during three time periods each lasting 7 or 8 d. We genotyped fecal DNA using five highly polymorphic microsatellite loci to identify individuals and used a robust-design mark–recapture approach to estimate survival rates as well as colony size at the roost tree. Emergence count estimates at the roost tree ranged from 100 to 215, whereas genetic mark–recapture estimates were higher, ranging from 122 to 266 and more precise. Apparent survival was 0.994 (SE = 0.04) between sampling periods suggesting that few bats died or permanently emigrated during the course of the study. Relatedness estimates, r, between all pairs of individuals averaged 0.055 ranging from 0 to 0.779, indicating that most individuals were not closely related. We demonstrate here the promise of using fecal DNA to estimate demographic information for Indiana bats and potentially other bat species.

Ecology of conflict: marine food supply affects human-wildlife interactions on land

Human-wildlife conflicts impose considerable costs to people and wildlife worldwide. Most research focuses on proximate causes, offering limited generalizable understanding of ultimate drivers. We tested three competing hypotheses (problem individuals, regional population saturation, limited food supply) that relate to underlying processes of human-grizzly bear (Ursus arctos horribilis) conflict, using data from British Columbia, Canada, between 1960–2014. We found most support for the limited food supply hypothesis: in bear populations that feed on spawning salmon (Oncorhynchus spp.), the annual number of bears/km² killed due to conflicts with humans increased by an average of 20% (6–32% [95% CI]) for each 50% decrease in annual salmon biomass. Furthermore, we found that across all bear populations (with or without access to salmon), 81% of attacks on humans and 82% of conflict kills occurred after the approximate onset of hyperphagia (July 1^st), a period of intense caloric demand. Contrary to practices by many management agencies, conflict frequency was not reduced by hunting or removal of problem individuals. Our finding that a marine resource affects terrestrial conflict suggests that evidence-based policy for reducing harm to wildlife and humans requires not only insight into ultimate drivers of conflict, but also management that spans ecosystem and jurisdictional boundaries.

Sampling designs matching species biology produce accurate and affordable abundance indices

Wildlife biologists often use grid-based designs to sample animals and generate abundance estimates. Although sampling in grids is theoretically sound, in application, the method can be logistically difficult and expensive when sampling elusive species inhabiting extensive areas. These factors make it challenging to sample animals and meet the statistical assumption of all individuals having an equal probability of capture. Violating this assumption biases results. Does an alternative exist? Perhaps by sampling only where resources attract animals (i.e., targeted sampling), it would provide accurate abundance estimates more efficiently and affordably. However, biases from this approach would also arise if individuals have an unequal probability of capture, especially if some failed to visit the sampling area. Since most biological programs are resource limited, and acquiring abundance data drives many conservation and management applications, it becomes imperative to identify economical and informative sampling designs. Therefore, we evaluated abundance estimates generated from grid and targeted sampling designs using simulations based on geographic positioning system (GPS) data from 42 Alaskan brown bears (Ursus arctos). Migratory salmon drew brown bears from the wider landscape, concentrating them at anadromous streams. This provided a scenario for testing the targeted approach. Grid and targeted sampling varied by trap amount, location (traps placed randomly, systematically or by expert opinion), and traps stationary or moved between capture sessions. We began by identifying when to sample, and if bears had equal probability of capture. We compared abundance estimates against seven criteria: bias, precision, accuracy, effort, plus encounter rates, and probabilities of capture and recapture. One grid (49 km² cells) and one targeted configuration provided the most accurate results. Both placed traps by expert opinion and moved traps between capture sessions, which raised capture probabilities. The grid design was least biased (−10.5%), but imprecise (CV 21.2%), and used most effort (16,100 trap-nights). The targeted configuration was more biased (−17.3%), but most precise (CV 12.3%), with least effort (7,000 trap-nights). Targeted sampling generated encounter rates four times higher, and capture and recapture probabilities 11% and 60% higher than grid sampling, in a sampling frame 88% smaller. Bears had unequal probability of capture with both sampling designs, partly because some bears never had traps available to sample them. Hence, grid and targeted sampling generated abundance indices, not estimates. Overall, targeted sampling provided the most accurate and affordable design to index abundance. Targeted sampling may offer an alternative method to index the abundance of other species inhabiting expansive and inaccessible landscapes elsewhere, provided their attraction to resource concentrations.

Predicting grizzly bear density in western North America

Conservation of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) is often controversial and the disagreement often is focused on the estimates of density used to calculate allowable kill. Many recent estimates of grizzly bear density are now available but field-based estimates will never be available for more than a small portion of hunted populations. Current methods of predicting density in areas of management interest are subjective and untested. Objective methods have been proposed, but these statistical models are so dependent on results from individual study areas that the models do not generalize well. We built regression models to relate grizzly bear density to ultimate measures of ecosystem productivity and mortality for interior and coastal ecosystems in North America. We used 90 measures of grizzly bear density in interior ecosystems, of which 14 were currently known to be unoccupied by grizzly bears. In coastal areas, we used 17 measures of density including 2 unoccupied areas. Our best model for coastal areas included a negative relationship with tree cover and positive relationships with the proportion of salmon in the diet and topographic ruggedness, which was correlated with precipitation. Our best interior model included 3 variables that indexed terrestrial productivity, 1 describing vegetation cover, 2 indices of human use of the landscape and, an index of topographic ruggedness. We used our models to predict current population sizes across Canada and present these as alternatives to current population estimates. Our models predict fewer grizzly bears in British Columbia but more bears in Canada than in the latest status review. These predictions can be used to assess population status, set limits for total human-caused mortality, and for conservation planning, but because our predictions are static, they cannot be used to assess population trend.

Environmental, biological and anthropogenic effects on grizzly bear body size: temporal and spatial considerations

BACKGROUND

Individual body growth is controlled in large part by the spatial and temporal heterogeneity of, and competition for, resources. Grizzly bears (Ursus arctos L.) are an excellent species for studying the effects of resource heterogeneity and maternal effects (i.e. silver spoon) on life history traits such as body size because their habitats are highly variable in space and time. Here, we evaluated influences on body size of grizzly bears in Alberta, Canada by testing six factors that accounted for spatial and temporal heterogeneity in environments during maternal, natal and 'capture' (recent) environments. After accounting for intrinsic biological factors (age, sex), we examined how body size, measured in mass, length and body condition, was influenced by: (a) population density; (b) regional habitat productivity; (c) inter-annual variability in productivity (including silver spoon effects); (d) local habitat quality; (e) human footprint (disturbances); and (f) landscape change.

RESULTS

We found sex and age explained the most variance in body mass, condition and length (R(2) from 0.48-0.64). Inter-annual variability in climate the year before and of birth (silver spoon effects) had detectable effects on the three-body size metrics (R(2) from 0.04-0.07); both maternal (year before birth) and natal (year of birth) effects of precipitation and temperature were related with body size. Local heterogeneity in habitat quality also explained variance in body mass and condition (R(2) from 0.01-0.08), while annual rate of landscape change explained additional variance in body length (R(2) of 0.03). Human footprint and population density had no observed effect on body size.

CONCLUSIONS

These results illustrated that body size patterns of grizzly bears, while largely affected by basic biological characteristics (age and sex), were also influenced by regional environmental gradients the year before, and of, the individual's birth thus illustrating silver spoon effects. The magnitude of the silver spoon effects was on par with the influence of contemporary regional habitat productivity, which showed that both temporal and spatial influences explain in part body size patterns in grizzly bears. Because smaller bears were found in colder and less-productive environments, we hypothesize that warming global temperatures may positively affect body mass of interior bears.

Using pedigree reconstruction to estimate population size: genotypes are more than individually unique marks

Estimates of population size are critical for conservation and management, but accurate estimates are difficult to obtain for many species. Noninvasive genetic methods are increasingly used to estimate population size, particularly in elusive species such as large carnivores, which are difficult to count by most other methods. In most such studies, genotypes are treated simply as unique individual identifiers. Here, we develop a new estimator of population size based on pedigree reconstruction. The estimator accounts for individuals that were directly sampled, individuals that were not sampled but whose genotype could be inferred by pedigree reconstruction, and individuals that were not detected by either of these methods. Monte Carlo simulations show that the population estimate is unbiased and precise if sampling is of sufficient intensity and duration. Simulations also identified sampling conditions that can cause the method to overestimate or underestimate true population size; we present and discuss methods to correct these potential biases. The method detected 2–21% more individuals than were directly sampled across a broad range of simulated sampling schemes. Genotypes are more than unique identifiers, and the information about relationships in a set of genotypes can improve estimates of population size.

Demographic history of an elusive carnivore: using museums to inform management

Elusive carnivores present a challenge to managers because traditional survey methods are not suitable. We applied a genetic approach using museum specimens to examine how historical and recent conditions influenced the demographic history of Puma concolor in western and southern Texas, USA. We used 10 microsatellite loci and indexed population trends by estimating historical and recent genetic diversity, genetic differentiation and effective population size. Mountain lions in southern Texas exhibited a 9% decline in genetic diversity, whereas diversity remained stable in western Texas. Genetic differentiation between western and southern Texas was minimal historically (F(ST) = 0.04, P < 0.01), but increased 2-2.5 times in our recent sample. An index of genetic drift for southern Texas was seven to eight times that of western Texas, presumably contributing to the current differentiation between western and southern Texas. Furthermore, southern Texas exhibited a >50% temporal decline in effective population size, whereas western Texas showed no change. Our results illustrate that population declines and genetic drift have occurred in southern Texas, likely because of contemporary habitat loss and predator control. Population monitoring may be needed to ensure the persistence of mountain lions in the southern Texas region. This study highlights the utility of sampling museum collections to examine demographic histories and inform wildlife management.

Estimating grizzly and black bear population abundance and trend in Banff National Park using noninvasive genetic sampling

We evaluated the potential of two noninvasive genetic sampling methods, hair traps and bear rub surveys, to estimate population abundance and trend of grizzly (Ursus arctos) and black bear (U. americanus) populations in Banff National Park, Alberta, Canada. Using Huggins closed population mark-recapture models, we obtained the first precise abundance estimates for grizzly bears (N= 73.5, 95% CI = 64-94 in 2006; N= 50.4, 95% CI = 49-59 in 2008) and black bears (N= 62.6, 95% CI = 51-89 in 2006; N= 81.8, 95% CI = 72-102 in 2008) in the Bow Valley. Hair traps had high detection rates for female grizzlies, and male and female black bears, but extremely low detection rates for male grizzlies. Conversely, bear rubs had high detection rates for male and female grizzlies, but low rates for black bears. We estimated realized population growth rates, lambda, for grizzly bear males (λ= 0.93, 95% CI = 0.74-1.17) and females (λ= 0.90, 95% CI = 0.67-1.20) using Pradel open population models with three years of bear rub data. Lambda estimates are supported by abundance estimates from combined hair trap/bear rub closed population models and are consistent with a system that is likely driven by high levels of human-caused mortality. Our results suggest that bear rub surveys would provide an efficient and powerful means to inventory and monitor grizzly bear populations in the Central Canadian Rocky Mountains.

Major components of grizzly bear diet across North America

We measured stable carbon and nitrogen isotope ratios in guard hair of 81 populations of grizzly bears (Ursus arctos L., 1758) across North America and used mixing models to assign diet fractions of salmon, meat derived from terrestrial sources, kokanee (Oncorhynchus nerka (Walbaum in Artedi, 1792)), and plants. In addition, we examined the relationship between skull size and diet of bears killed by people in British Columbia. The majority of carbon and nitrogen assimilated by most coastal grizzly bear populations was derived from salmon, while interior populations usually derived a much smaller fraction of their nutrients from salmon, even in areas with relatively large salmon runs. Terrestrial prey was a large part of the diet where ungulates were abundant, with the highest fractions observed in the central Arctic, where caribou (Rangifer tarandus (L., 1758)) were very abundant. Bears in some boreal areas, where moose (Alces alces (L., 1758)) were abundant, also ate a lot of meat. Bears in dryer areas with low snowfall tended to have relatively high meat diet fractions, presumably because ungulates are more abundant in such environments. Kokanee were an important food in central British Columbia. In areas where meat was more than about a third of the diet, males and females had similar meat diet fractions, but where meat was a smaller portion of the diet, males usually had higher meat diet fractions than females. Females reached 95% of their average adult skull length by 5 years of age, while males took 8 years. Skull width of male grizzly bears increased throughout life, while this trend was slight in females. Skull size increased with the amount of salmon in the diet, but the influence of terrestrial meat on size was inconclusive. We suggest that the amount of salmon in the diet is functionally related to fitness in grizzly bears.

Monitoring coyote population dynamics by genotyping faeces

Reliable population estimates are necessary for effective conservation and management, and faecal genotyping has been used successfully to estimate the population size of several elusive mammalian species. Information such as changes in population size over time and survival rates, however, are often more useful for conservation biology than single population estimates. We evaluated the use of faecal genotyping as a tool for monitoring long-term population dynamics, using coyotes (Canis latrans) in the Alaska Range as a case study. We obtained 544 genotypes from 56 coyotes over 3 years (2000-2002). Tissue samples from all 15 radio-collared coyotes in our study area had > or = 1 matching faecal genotypes. We used flexible maximum-likelihood models to study coyote population dynamics, and we tested model performance against radio telemetry data. The staple prey of coyotes, snowshoe hares (Lepus americanus), dramatically declined during this study, and the coyote population declined nearly two-fold with a 1(1/2)-year time lag. Survival rates declined the year after hares crashed but recovered the following year. We conclude that long-term monitoring of elusive species using faecal genotyping is feasible and can provide data that are useful for wildlife conservation and management. We highlight some drawbacks of standard open-population models, such as low precision and the requirement of discrete sampling intervals, and we suggest that the development of open models designed for continuously collected data would enhance the utility of faecal genotyping as a monitoring tool.