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Hasan F, Tantawi ME, Haque F, Foláyan MO, Virtanen JI. Early childhood caries risk prediction using machine learning approaches in Bangladesh. BMC Oral Health 2025; 25:49. [PMID: 39780148 PMCID: PMC11716260 DOI: 10.1186/s12903-025-05419-2] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/04/2024] [Accepted: 01/02/2025] [Indexed: 01/11/2025] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND In the last years, artificial intelligence (AI) has contributed to improving healthcare including dentistry. The objective of this study was to develop a machine learning (ML) model for early childhood caries (ECC) prediction by identifying crucial health behaviours within mother-child pairs. METHODS For the analysis, we utilized a representative sample of 724 mothers with children under six years in Bangladesh. The study utilized both clinical and survey data. ECC was assessed using ICDAS II criteria in the clinical examinations. Recursive Feature Elimination (RFE) and Random Forest (RF) was applied to identify the optimal subsets of features. Random forest classifier (RFC), extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), support vector machine (SVM), adaptive boosting (AdaBoost), and multi-layer perceptron (MLP) models were used to identify the best fitted model as the predictor of ECC. SHAP and MDG-MDA plots were visualized for model interpretability and identify significant predictors. RESULTS The RFC model identified 10 features as the most relevant for ECC prediction obtained by RFE feature selection method. The features were: plaque score, age of child, mother's education, number of siblings, age of mother, consumption of sweet, tooth cleaning tools, child's tooth brushing frequency, helping child brushing, and use of F-toothpaste. The final ML model achieved an AUC-ROC score (0.77), accuracy (0.72), sensitivity (0.80) and F1 score (0.73) in the test set. Of the prediction model, dental plaque was the strongest predictor of ECC (MDG: 0.08, MDA: 0.10). CONCLUSIONS Our final ML model, integrating 10 key features, has the potential to predict ECC effectively in children under five years. Additional research is needed for validation and optimization across various groups.
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Affiliation(s)
- Fardous Hasan
- Department of Clinical Dentistry, Faculty of Medicine, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - Maha El Tantawi
- Department of Pediatric Dentistry and Dental Public Health, Faculty of Dentistry, Alexandria University, Alexandria, Egypt
- Early Childhood Caries Advocacy Group, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada
| | - Farzana Haque
- Department of Clinical Dentistry, Faculty of Medicine, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway
| | - Moréniké Oluwátóyìn Foláyan
- Early Childhood Caries Advocacy Group, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada
- Department of Child Dental Health, Obafemi Awolowo University, 22005, Ile-Ife, Nigeria
- Oral Health Initiative, Nigerian Institute of Medical Research, Yaba, Lagos, Lagos State, 100001, Nigeria
| | - Jorma I Virtanen
- Department of Clinical Dentistry, Faculty of Medicine, University of Bergen, Bergen, Norway.
- Institute of Dentistry, University of Turku, Turku, Finland.
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Kahharova D, Brandt BW, Buijs MJ, Peters M, Jackson R, Eckert G, Katz B, Keels MA, Levy SM, Fontana M, Zaura E. Maturation of the Oral Microbiome in Caries-Free Toddlers: A Longitudinal Study. J Dent Res 2019; 99:159-167. [PMID: 31771395 PMCID: PMC6977153 DOI: 10.1177/0022034519889015] [Citation(s) in RCA: 40] [Impact Index Per Article: 6.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Understanding the development of the oral microbiota in healthy children is of
great importance to oral and general health. However, limited data exist on a
healthy maturation of the oral microbial ecosystem in children. Moreover, the
data are biased by mislabeling “caries-free” populations. Therefore, we aimed to
characterize the healthy salivary and dental plaque microbiome in young
children. Caries-free (ICDAS [International Caries Detection and Assessment
System] score 0) children (n = 119) and their primary
caregivers were followed from 1 until 4 y of child age. Salivary and dental
plaque samples were collected from the children at 3 time points (T1, ~1 y old;
T2, ~2.5 y old; and T3, ~4 y old). Only saliva samples were collected from the
caregivers. Bacterial V4 16S ribosomal DNA amplicons were sequenced using
Illumina MiSeq. The reads were denoised and mapped to the zero-radius
operational taxonomic units (zOTUs). Taxonomy was assigned using HOMD. The
microbial profiles of children showed significant differences
(P = 0.0001) over time. Various taxa increased, including
Fusobacterium, Actinomyces, and
Corynebacterium, while others showed significant decreases
(e.g., Alloprevotella and Capnocytophaga) in
their relative abundances over time. Microbial diversity and child-caregiver
similarity increased most between 1 and 2.5 y of age while still not reaching
the complexity of the caregivers at 4 y of age. The microbiome at 1 y of age
differed the most from those at later time points. A single zOTU
(Streptococcus) was present in all samples
(n = 925) of the study. A large variation in the proportion
of shared zOTUs was observed within an individual child over time (2% to 42% of
zOTUs in saliva; 2.5% to 38% in dental plaque). These findings indicate that the
oral ecosystem of caries-free toddlers is highly heterogeneous and dynamic with
substantial changes in microbial composition over time and only few taxa
persisting across the 3 y of the study. The salivary microbiome of 4-y-old
children is still distinct from that of their caregivers.
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Affiliation(s)
- D Kahharova
- Department of Preventive Dentistry, Academic Centre for Dentistry Amsterdam (ACTA), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - B W Brandt
- Department of Preventive Dentistry, Academic Centre for Dentistry Amsterdam (ACTA), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - M J Buijs
- Department of Preventive Dentistry, Academic Centre for Dentistry Amsterdam (ACTA), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands
| | - M Peters
- University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - R Jackson
- Indiana University, Indianapolis, IN, USA
| | - G Eckert
- Indiana University, Indianapolis, IN, USA
| | - B Katz
- Indiana University, Indianapolis, IN, USA
| | | | - S M Levy
- University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA, USA
| | - M Fontana
- University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI, USA
| | - E Zaura
- Department of Preventive Dentistry, Academic Centre for Dentistry Amsterdam (ACTA), Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam and University of Amsterdam, the Netherlands
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Fontana M, Eckert G, Keels M, Jackson R, Katz B, Kemper A, Levy B, Levy S, Yanca E, Kelly S, Daly J, Patterson B, McKnight P. Predicting Caries in Medical Settings: Risk Factors in Diverse Infant Groups. J Dent Res 2019; 98:68-76. [PMID: 30205016 PMCID: PMC6304713 DOI: 10.1177/0022034518799080] [Citation(s) in RCA: 12] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
Expanded partnership with the medical community is a promising strategy for reducing disparities in dental caries among young children. However, no validated caries risk instrument exists for use in primary health care settings. To help resolve this gap, a 52-item caries risk questionnaire was developed and targeted to primary caregivers (PCGs) to test in a 3-y prospective study. To begin to understand the validity of the questionnaire items, the purpose of this study was to compare responses to the questionnaire based on key demographic characteristics known to be associated with disparities in caries experience (e.g., race/ethnicity and insurance status). A total of 1,323 one-year-old children were recruited primarily through 3 medical research networks. Baseline questionnaire responses were analyzed via logistic regression. The sample was 49% female. Its racial/ethnic makeup was as follows: 13% Hispanic, 37% White, 37% Black, and 13% other or multiracial. Sixty-one percent were enrolled in Medicaid, and 95% resided in urban communities. Mothers represented 94% of PCGs. There were significant differences ( P < 0.05) in baseline responses based on Medicaid status and race/ethnicity. As compared with those not enrolled in Medicaid, children in the Medicaid group were significantly more likely (after adjusting for race/ethnicity) to 1) go to sleep while nursing or drinking something other than water, 2) eat sugary snacks between meals, 3) consume sugary drinks between meals, 4) receive topical fluoride from a health professional, 5) visit the dentist, and 6) not have an employed adult in the household. PCGs of children enrolled in Medicaid were significantly more likely to be the mother, have bleeding gums, eat sugary snacks between meals, consume sugary drinks between meals, eat or drink something other than water before going to bed, and not get regular dental checkups. In conclusion, there are significant differences in caries risk questionnaire responses based on Medicaid status and race/ethnicity that provide construct and criterion validity to the developed caries risk tool (ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01707797).
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Affiliation(s)
- M. Fontana
- University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI,
USA
| | | | | | - R. Jackson
- Indiana University, Indianapolis, IN,
USA
| | - B.P. Katz
- Indiana University, Indianapolis, IN,
USA
| | - A.R. Kemper
- Division of Ambulatory Pediatrics,
Nationwide Children’s Hospital, Columbus, OH, USA
| | - B.T. Levy
- University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA,
USA
| | - S.M. Levy
- University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA,
USA
| | - E. Yanca
- University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI,
USA
| | - S. Kelly
- Indiana University, Indianapolis, IN,
USA
| | - J.M. Daly
- University of Iowa, Iowa City, IA,
USA
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Finlayson TL, Gupta A, Ramos-Gomez FJ. Prenatal Maternal Factors, Intergenerational Transmission of Disease, and Child Oral Health Outcomes. Dent Clin North Am 2018; 61:483-518. [PMID: 28577633 DOI: 10.1016/j.cden.2017.02.001] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.4] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Indexed: 11/30/2022]
Abstract
This article reviews maternal prenatal risk factors for caries in children and intergenerational transmission of caries, emphasizing early interventions for pregnant women and mother-infant pairs. A growing body of evidence focuses on maternal interventions. Studies suggest that early prenatal clinical and educational interventions are effective at reducing mother-child mutans streptococci (MS) transmission and delaying colonization and caries in young children. Dental screenings and anticipatory guidance about maternal and infant oral health should be included in prenatal care and pediatric well visits. Dental care during pregnancy is safe and recommended and can reduce maternal MS levels. Infants should visit a dentist by age 1.
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Affiliation(s)
- Tracy L Finlayson
- Division of Health Management and Policy, Graduate School of Public Health, Institute for Behavioral and Community Health, San Diego State University, 9245 Sky Part Court, Suite 221, San Diego, CA 92123, USA.
| | - Aarti Gupta
- Institute for Behavioral and Community Health, 9245 Sky Park Court, Suite 221, San Diego, CA 92123, USA
| | - Francisco J Ramos-Gomez
- Section of Pediatric Dentistry, University of California Los Angeles (UCLA) School of Dentistry, 10833 Le Conte Avenue, Box 951668, CHS Room 23-020B, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1668, USA
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Thackeray R, Magnusson BM, Bennion E, Nielsen NN, Bailey RJ. Attitudes of U.S. Hispanic and non-Hispanic women toward congenital CMV prevention behaviors: a cross sectional study. BMC Pregnancy Childbirth 2018; 18:181. [PMID: 29793438 PMCID: PMC5968502 DOI: 10.1186/s12884-018-1807-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.1] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/18/2018] [Accepted: 04/30/2018] [Indexed: 11/24/2022] Open
Abstract
Background Congenital cytomegalovirus (CMV) infection is the most common intrauterine infection. The only way to protect against congenital CMV infection is to practice CMV prevention behaviors. CMV seroprevalence rates are high in Hispanic women. It is unknown whether communication strategies should differ by ethnicity. The purpose of this study was to understand differences between U.S. Hispanic and non-Hispanic women’s attitudes toward CMV prevention behaviors and examine the relationship between perceived subjective norms and these attitudes. Methods This was a cross-sectional study using an online panel. Participants were U.S. women of childbearing age. The dependent variable was attitude toward practicing CMV prevention behaviors, specifically avoiding sharing cups, food, and utensils with a child and not kissing a child on the lips. Results Among 818 women (50% Hispanic), 16.8% of Hispanic women and 9.7% of non-Hispanic women (p = 0.002) reported familiarity with CMV. Attitudes toward CMV prevention through avoiding sharing behaviors (MHispanic = 5.55 vs. Mnon-Hispanic = 5.20; p = 0.002) and not kissing a child on the lips (MHispanic = 4.80 vs. Mnon-Hispanic = 4.21; p = 0.001) were positive for both ethnicities, but higher for Hispanic women. Hispanic women (M = 5.11) reported higher perceived behavioral control for avoiding kissing a child on the lips than non-Hispanic women (M = 4.63; p = 0.001). Hispanic women who were U.S. born or spoke English primarily more frequently kissed a child on the lips or engaged in sharing behaviors. Additionally, those who spoke Spanish mostly held more positive attitudes toward not kissing on the lips. Significant predictors for more positive attitudes toward CMV prevention behaviors were associated with perceived subjective norms, perceived behavioral control and pre-survey participation in risk behaviors. Conclusions Hispanic women have more positive attitudes toward CMV prevention behaviors than non-Hispanic women, however in regression models other factors are more important predictors of positive attitudes than ethnicity. In developing strategies to encourage women to practice CMV prevention behaviors, a focus on further understanding and increasing subjective norms and perceived control over those behaviors may be warranted. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (10.1186/s12884-018-1807-0) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Erica Bennion
- Department of Health Science, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, USA
| | - Natalia N Nielsen
- Department of Health Science, Brigham Young University, Provo, UT, USA
| | - Ryan J Bailey
- Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, University of South Florida, Tampa, FL, USA
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Nunes AMM, da Silva AAM, Alves CMC, Hugo FN, Ribeiro CCC. Factors underlying the polarization of early childhood caries within a high-risk population. BMC Public Health 2014; 14:988. [PMID: 25245978 PMCID: PMC4192400 DOI: 10.1186/1471-2458-14-988] [Citation(s) in RCA: 17] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/03/2014] [Accepted: 09/05/2014] [Indexed: 11/10/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Early childhood caries (ECC) are particularly prevalent in disadvantaged populations, and socioeconomic factors are associated with the polarization of disease. A previous study showed that even within a homogenous low-income population disease is polarized, indicating that other factors apart from income may contribute to disease susceptibility. METHODS This study used a hierarchical approach to identify factors associated with polarization of ECC in low-income subjects. This cross-sectional study was conducted retrospectively using a cohort of 244 children (aged 48-72 months) with family incomes not exceeding double the minimum wage (U.S. $8,208.00/year), living in neighborhoods on the outskirts of São Luís, Maranhão, Brazil. The sample was divided into three groups based on the Significant Caries (SiC) Index: no caries group, few caries group (mean 1.38 lesions), and a high caries group (mean 3.82 lesions). Hierarchical multinomial logistic regression analyses were performed based on a theoretical model. RESULTS Twenty-eight (11.5%) of the 244 children presented with high caries. Age (p = 0.026; prevalence ratio (PR) = 1.10; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01-1.20) and frequency of sucrose consumption - p = 0.001; PR 4.65 (95% CI 1.83-11.84) were associated with increased risk of ECC. CONCLUSIONS In the high caries group, greater consumption of sucrose between main meals may explain why, in a group of children with homogenous social and health conditions, some had more caries than others.
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Affiliation(s)
- Ana Margarida Melo Nunes
- />Federal University of Maranhão, Jupiter Street 12, apartment 1101, Ed. José Gonçalo, Renascença II, São Luis, Ma Brasil
| | - Antônio Augusto Moura da Silva
- />Federal University of Maranhão, Jupiter Street 12, apartment 1101, Ed. José Gonçalo, Renascença II, São Luis, Ma Brasil
| | - Claudia Maria Coelho Alves
- />Federal University of Maranhão, Jupiter Street 12, apartment 1101, Ed. José Gonçalo, Renascença II, São Luis, Ma Brasil
| | | | - Cecilia Claudia Costa Ribeiro
- />Federal University of Maranhão, Jupiter Street 12, apartment 1101, Ed. José Gonçalo, Renascença II, São Luis, Ma Brasil
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Fontana M, Santiago E, Eckert G, Ferreira-Zandona A. Risk factors of caries progression in a Hispanic school-aged population. J Dent Res 2011; 90:1189-96. [PMID: 21765039 PMCID: PMC3173008 DOI: 10.1177/0022034511413927] [Citation(s) in RCA: 24] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/23/2010] [Revised: 05/20/2011] [Accepted: 05/20/2011] [Indexed: 11/16/2022] Open
Abstract
The purpose of this Institutional Review Board-approved study was to identify risk factors of caries lesion progression in children enrolled in rural schools in Puerto Rico. A convenience sample of 408 children (5-13 yrs old) was examined at baseline and at 12 and 24 mos with the International Caries Detection and Assessment System (ICDAS). A total of 395 caregivers completed a 25-item questionnaire including socio-demographic, dietary, protective factors, disease experience, and access to care. Caries progression was significant (89% and 91% at 12 and 24 mos, respectively). Multiple-variable models for predicting children with lesion progression and numbers of lesions progressing were calculated for 2 outcome variables (any-progression vs. progression-toward-cavitation). Models developed had areas under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve ranging between 0.70 and 0.79 and were very similar regardless of the outcome (progression criteria), prediction time (12-24 mos), or inclusion (or not) of previous caries experience. Significant predictors of disease progression collected through a parent-completed questionnaire included questions related to caries experience in the child or caregiver, and the caregiver's rating of the child's oral health.
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Affiliation(s)
- M. Fontana
- Department of Cariology, Restorative Sciences and Endodontics, University of Michigan School of Dentistry, 1011 North University, Room 2029B, Ann Arbor, MI 48109, USA
| | - E. Santiago
- Research Center, University of Puerto Rico School of Dentistry, San Juan
| | - G.J. Eckert
- Department of Medicine, Indiana University School of Medicine, Indianapolis
| | - A.G. Ferreira-Zandona
- Department of Preventive and Community Dentistry, Indiana University School of Dentistry, Indianapolis
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