Incorporation of a genetic factor into an epidemiologic model for prediction of individual risk of lung cancer: the Liverpool Lung Project

The HUNT lung-SNP model: genetic variants plus clinical variables improve lung cancer risk assessment over clinical models

PURPOSE

The HUNT Lung Cancer Model (HUNT LCM) predicts individualized 6-year lung cancer (LC) risk among individuals who ever smoked cigarettes with high precision based on eight clinical variables. Can the performance be improved by adding genetic information?

METHODS

A polygenic model was developed in the prospective Norwegian HUNT2 study with clinical and genotype data of individuals who ever smoked cigarettes (n = 30749, median follow up 15.26 years) where 160 LC were diagnosed within six years. It included the variables of the original HUNT LCM plus 22 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) highly associated with LC. External validation was performed in the prospective Norwegian Tromsø Study (n = 2663).

RESULTS

The novel HUNT Lung-SNP model significantly improved risk ranking of individuals over the HUNT LCM in both HUNT2 (p < 0.001) and Tromsø (p < 0.05) cohorts. Furthermore, detection rate (number of participants selected to detect one LC case) was significantly better for the HUNT Lung-SNP vs. HUNT LCM in both cohorts (42 vs. 48, p = 0.003 and 11 vs. 14, p = 0.025, respectively) as well as versus the NLST, NELSON and 2021 USPSTF criteria. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was higher for the HUNT Lung-SNP in both cohorts, but significant only in HUNT2 (AUC 0.875 vs. 0.844, p < 0.001). However, the integrated discrimination improvement index (IDI) indicates a significant improvement of LC risk stratification by the HUNT Lung-SNP in both cohorts (IDI 0.019, p < 0.001 (HUNT2) and 0.013, p < 0.001 (Tromsø)).

CONCLUSION

The HUNT Lung-SNP model could have a clinical impact on LC screening and has the potential to replace the HUNT LCM as well as the NLST, NELSON and 2021 USPSTF criteria in a screening setting. However, the model should be further validated in other populations and evaluated in a prospective trial setting.

[Construction of a Risk Prediction Model for Lung Cancer Based on Lifestyle Behaviors in the UK Biobank Large-Scale Population Cohort]

Objective

To identify the risk factors related to lifestyle behaviors that affect the incidence of lung cancer, to build a lung cancer risk prediction model to identify, in the population, individuals who are at high risk, and to facilitate the early detection of lung cancer.

Methods

The data used in the study were obtained from the UK Biobank, a database that contains information collected from 502 389 participants between March 2006 and October 2010. Based on domestic and international guidelines for lung cancer screening and high-quality research literature on lung cancer risk factors, high-risk population identification criteria were determined. Univariate Cox regression was performed to screen for risk factors of lung cancer and a multifactor lung cancer risk prediction model was constructed using Cox proportional hazards regression. Based on the comparison of Akaike information criterion and Schoenfeld residual test results, the optimal fitted model assuming proportional hazards was selected. The multiple factor Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to consider the survival time and the population was randomly divided into a training set and a validation set by a ratio of 7:3. The model was built using the training set and the performance of the model was internally validated using the validation set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve ( AUC) was used to evaluate the efficacy of the model. The population was categorized into low-risk, moderate-risk, and high-risk groups based on the probability of occurrence of 0% to <25%, 25% to <75%, and 75% to 100%. The respective proportions of affected individuals in each risk group were calculated.

Results

The study eventually covered 453 558 individuals, and out of the cumulative follow-up of 5 505 402 person-years, a total of 2 330 cases of lung cancer were diagnosed. Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to identify 10 independent variables as predictors of lung cancer, including age, body mass index (BMI), education, income, physical activity, smoking status, alcohol consumption frequency, fresh fruit intake, family history of cancer, and tobacco exposure, and a model was established accordingly. Internal validation results showed that 8 independent variables (all the 10 independent variables screened out except for BMI and fresh fruit intake) were significant influencing factors of lung cancer ( P<0.05). The AUC of the training set for predicting lung cancer occurrence at one year, five years, and ten years were 0.825, 0.785, and 0.777, respectively. The AUC of the validation set for predicting lung cancer occurrence at one year, five years, and ten years were 0.857, 0.782, and 0.765, respectively. 68.38% of the individuals who might develop lung cancer in the future could be identified by screening the high-risk population.

Conclusion

We established, in this study, a model for predicting lung cancer risks associated with lifestyle behaviors of a large population. Showing good performance in discriminatory ability, the model can be used as a tool for developing standardized screening strategies for lung cancer.

Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Nomogram in Nonsmoking Chinese Women: Retrospective Cross-sectional Cohort Study

BACKGROUND

It is believed that smoking is not the cause of approximately 53% of lung cancers diagnosed in women globally.

OBJECTIVE

The study aimed to develop and validate a simple and noninvasive model that could assess and stratify lung cancer risk in nonsmoking Chinese women.

METHODS

Based on the population-based Cancer Screening Program in Urban China, this retrospective, cross-sectional cohort study was carried out with a vast population base and an immense number of participants. The training set and the validation set were both constructed using a random distribution of the data. Following the identification of associated risk factors by multivariable Cox regression analysis, a predictive nomogram was developed. Discrimination (area under the curve) and calibration were further performed to assess the validation of risk prediction nomogram in the training set, which was then validated in the validation set.

RESULTS

In sum, 151,834 individuals signed up to take part in the survey. Both the training set (n=75,917) and the validation set (n=75,917) were comprised of randomly selected participants. Potential predictors for lung cancer included age, history of chronic respiratory disease, first-degree family history of lung cancer, menopause, and history of benign breast disease. We displayed 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year lung cancer risk-predicting nomograms using these 5 factors. In the training set, the 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year lung cancer risk areas under the curve were 0.762, 0.718, and 0.703, respectively. In the validation set, the model showed a moderate predictive discrimination.

CONCLUSIONS

We designed and validated a simple and noninvasive lung cancer risk model for nonsmoking women. This model can be applied to identify and triage people at high risk for developing lung cancers among nonsmoking women.

Non-Invasive Biomarkers for Early Lung Cancer Detection

Worldwide, lung cancer (LC) is the most common cause of cancer death, and any delay in the detection of new and relapsed disease serves as a major factor for a significant proportion of LC morbidity and mortality. Though invasive methods such as tissue biopsy are considered the gold standard for diagnosis and disease monitoring, they have several limitations. Therefore, there is an urgent need to identify and validate non-invasive biomarkers for the early diagnosis, prognosis, and treatment of lung cancer for improved patient management. Despite recent progress in the identification of non-invasive biomarkers, currently, there is a shortage of reliable and accessible biomarkers demonstrating high sensitivity and specificity for LC detection. In this review, we aim to cover the latest developments in the field, including the utility of biomarkers that are currently used in LC screening and diagnosis. We comment on their limitations and summarise the findings and developmental stages of potential molecular contenders such as microRNAs, circulating tumour DNA, and methylation markers. Furthermore, we summarise research challenges in the development of biomarkers used for screening purposes and the potential clinical applications of newly discovered biomarkers.

Construction and Validation of a Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Model for Non-Smokers in China

Background

About 15% of lung cancers in men and 53% in women are not attributable to smoking worldwide. The aim was to develop and validate a simple and non-invasive model which could assess and stratify lung cancer risk in non-smokers in China.

Methods

A large-sample size, population-based study was conducted under the framework of the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC). Data on the lung cancer screening in Henan province, China, from October 2013 to October 2019 were used and randomly divided into the training and validation sets. Related risk factors were identified through multivariable Cox regression analysis, followed by establishment of risk prediction nomogram. Discrimination [area under the curve (AUC)] and calibration were further performed to assess the validation of risk prediction nomogram in the training set, and then validated by the validation set.

Results

A total of 214,764 eligible subjects were included, with a mean age of 55.19 years. Subjects were randomly divided into the training (107,382) and validation (107,382) sets. Elder age, being male, a low education level, family history of lung cancer, history of tuberculosis, and without a history of hyperlipidemia were the independent risk factors for lung cancer. Using these six variables, we plotted 1-year, 3-year, and 5-year lung cancer risk prediction nomogram. The AUC was 0.753, 0.752, and 0.755 for the 1-, 3- and 5-year lung cancer risk in the training set, respectively. In the validation set, the model showed a moderate predictive discrimination, with the AUC was 0.668, 0.678, and 0.685 for the 1-, 3- and 5-year lung cancer risk.

Conclusions

We developed and validated a simple and non-invasive lung cancer risk model in non-smokers. This model can be applied to identify and triage patients at high risk for developing lung cancers in non-smokers.

A risk prediction model for selecting high-risk population for computed tomography lung cancer screening in China

OBJECTIVE

Two large randomized controlled trials (RCTs) have demonstrated that low dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening reduces lung cancer mortality. Risk-prediction models have been proved to select individuals for lung cancer screening effectively. With the focus on established risk factors for lung cancer routinely available in general cancer screening settings, we aimed to develop and internally validated a risk prediction model for lung cancer.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Using data from the Cancer Screening Program in Urban China (CanSPUC) in Henan province, China between 2013 and 2019, we conducted a prospective cohort study consisting of 282,254 participants including 126,445 males and 155,809 females. Detailed questionnaire, physical assessment and follow-up were completed for all participants. Using Cox proportional risk regression analysis, we developed the Henan Lung Cancer Risk Models based on simplified questionnaire. Model discrimination was evaluated by concordance statistics (C-statistics), and model calibration was evaluated by the bootstrap sampling, respectively.

RESULTS

By 2020, a total of 589 lung cancer cases occurred in the follow-up yielding an incident density of 64.91/100,000 person-years (pyrs). Age, gender, smoking, history of tuberculosis and history of emphysema were included into the model. The C-index of the model for 1-year lung cancer risk was 0.766 and 0.741 in the training set and validation set, respectively. In stratified analysis, the model showed better predictive power in males, younger participants, and former or current smoking participants. The model calibrated well across the deciles of predicted risk in both the overall population and all subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and internally validated a simple risk prediction model for lung cancer, which may be useful to identify high-risk individuals for more intensive screening for cancer prevention.

Lung cancer screening: who pays? Who receives? The European perspectives

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide, and its early detection is critical to achieving a curative treatment and to reducing mortality. Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) is a highly sensitive technique for detecting noninvasive small lung tumors in high-risk populations. We here analyze the current status of lung cancer screening (LCS) from a European point of view. With economic burden of health care in most European countries resting on the state, it is important to reduce costs of screening and improve its effectiveness. Current cost-effectiveness analyses on LCS have indicated a favorable economic profile. The most recently published analysis reported an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of €3,297 per 1 life-year gained adjusted for the quality of life (QALY) and €2,944 per life-year gained, demonstrating a 90% probability of ICER being below €15,000 and a 98.1% probability of being below €25,000. Different risk models have been used to identify the target population; among these, the PLCOM2012 in particular allows for the selection of the population to be screened with high sensitivity. Risk models should also be employed to define screening intervals, which can reduce the general number of LDCT scans after the baseline round. Future perspectives of screening in a European scenario are related to the will of the policy makers to implement policy on a large scale and to improve the effectiveness of a broad screening of smoking-related disease, including cardiovascular prevention, by measuring coronary calcium score on LDCT. The employment of artificial intelligence (AI) in imaging interpretation, the use of liquid biopsies for the characterization of CT-detected undetermined nodules, and less invasive, personalized surgical treatments, will improve the effectiveness of LCS.

Assessing Lung Cancer Absolute Risk Trajectory Based on a Polygenic Risk Model

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related death globally. An improved risk stratification strategy can increase efficiency of low-dose CT (LDCT) screening. Here we assessed whether individual's genetic background has clinical utility for risk stratification in the context of LDCT screening. On the basis of 13,119 patients with lung cancer and 10,008 controls with European ancestry in the International Lung Cancer Consortium, we constructed a polygenic risk score (PRS) via 10-fold cross-validation with regularized penalized regression. The performance of risk model integrating PRS, including calibration and ability to discriminate, was assessed using UK Biobank data (N = 335,931). Absolute risk was estimated on the basis of age-specific lung cancer incidence and all-cause mortality as competing risk. To evaluate its potential clinical utility, the PRS distribution was simulated in the National Lung Screening Trial (N = 50,772 participants). The lung cancer ORs for individuals at the top decile of the PRS distribution versus those at bottom 10% was 2.39 [95% confidence interval (CI) = 1.92-3.00; P = 1.80 × 10-14] in the validation set (P trend = 5.26 × 10-20). The OR per SD of PRS increase was 1.26 (95% CI = 1.20-1.32; P = 9.69 × 10-23) for overall lung cancer risk in the validation set. When considering absolute risks, individuals at different PRS deciles showed differential trajectories of 5-year and cumulative absolute risk. The age reaching the LDCT screening recommendation threshold can vary by 4 to 8 years, depending on the individual's genetic background, smoking status, and family history. Collectively, these results suggest that individual's genetic background may inform the optimal lung cancer LDCT screening strategy. SIGNIFICANCE: Three large-scale datasets reveal that, after accounting for risk factors, an individual's genetics can affect their lung cancer risk trajectory, thus may inform the optimal timing for LDCT screening.

Targeting lung cancer screening to individuals at greatest risk: the role of genetic factors

Lung cancer (LC) is the most common global cancer. An individual’s risk of developing LC is mediated by an array of factors, including family history of the disease. Considerable research into genetic risk factors for LC has taken place in recent years, with both low-penetrance and high-penetrance variants implicated in increasing or decreasing a person’s risk of the disease. LC is the leading cause of cancer death worldwide; poor survival is driven by late onset of non-specific symptoms, resulting in late-stage diagnoses. Evidence for the efficacy of screening in detecting cancer earlier, thereby reducing lung-cancer specific mortality, is now well established. To ensure the cost-effectiveness of a screening programme and to limit the potential harms to participants, a risk threshold for screening eligibility is required. Risk prediction models (RPMs), which provide an individual’s personal risk of LC over a particular period based on a large number of risk factors, may improve the selection of high-risk individuals for LC screening when compared with generalised eligibility criteria that only consider smoking history and age. No currently used RPM integrates genetic risk factors into its calculation of risk. This review provides an overview of the evidence for LC screening, screening related harms and the use of RPMs in screening cohort selection. It gives a synopsis of the known genetic risk factors for lung cancer and discusses the evidence for including them in RPMs, focusing in particular on the use of polygenic risk scores to increase the accuracy of targeted lung cancer screening.

Recommendations for Implementing Lung Cancer Screening with Low-Dose Computed Tomography in Europe

Lung cancer screening (LCS) with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) was demonstrated in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) to reduce mortality from the disease. European mortality data has recently become available from the Nelson randomised controlled trial, which confirmed lung cancer mortality reductions by 26% in men and 39-61% in women. Recent studies in Europe and the USA also showed positive results in screening workers exposed to asbestos. All European experts attending the "Initiative for European Lung Screening (IELS)"-a large international group of physicians and other experts concerned with lung cancer-agreed that LDCT-LCS should be implemented in Europe. However, the economic impact of LDCT-LCS and guidelines for its effective and safe implementation still need to be formulated. To this purpose, the IELS was asked to prepare recommendations to implement LCS and examine outstanding issues. A subgroup carried out a comprehensive literature review on LDCT-LCS and presented findings at a meeting held in Milan in November 2018. The present recommendations reflect that consensus was reached.

Recommendations for Implementing Lung Cancer Screening with Low-Dose Computed Tomography in Europe

Lung cancer screening (LCS) with low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) was demonstrated in the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) to reduce mortality from the disease. European mortality data has recently become available from the Nelson randomised controlled trial, which confirmed lung cancer mortality reductions by 26% in men and 39-61% in women. Recent studies in Europe and the USA also showed positive results in screening workers exposed to asbestos. All European experts attending the "Initiative for European Lung Screening (IELS)"-a large international group of physicians and other experts concerned with lung cancer-agreed that LDCT-LCS should be implemented in Europe. However, the economic impact of LDCT-LCS and guidelines for its effective and safe implementation still need to be formulated. To this purpose, the IELS was asked to prepare recommendations to implement LCS and examine outstanding issues. A subgroup carried out a comprehensive literature review on LDCT-LCS and presented findings at a meeting held in Milan in November 2018. The present recommendations reflect that consensus was reached.

Risk prediction model for lung cancer incorporating metabolic markers: Development and internal validation in a Chinese population

BACKGROUND

Low-dose computed tomography screening has been proved to reduce lung cancer mortality, however, the issues of high false-positive rate and overdiagnosis remain unsolved. Risk prediction models for lung cancer that could accurately identify high-risk populations may help to increase efficiency. We thus sought to develop a risk prediction model for lung cancer incorporating epidemiological and metabolic markers in a Chinese population.

METHODS

During 2006 and 2015, a total of 122 497 people were observed prospectively for lung cancer incidence with the total person-years of 976 663. Stepwise multivariable-adjusted logistic regressions with P_entry  = .15 and P_stay  = .20 were conducted to select the candidate variables including demographics and metabolic markers such as high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) into the prediction model. We used the C-statistic to evaluate discrimination, and Hosmer-Lemeshow tests for calibration. Tenfold cross-validation was conducted for internal validation to assess the model's stability.

RESULTS

A total of 984 lung cancer cases were identified during the follow-up. The epidemiological model including age, gender, smoking status, alcohol intake status, coal dust exposure status, and body mass index generated a C-statistic of 0.731. The full model additionally included hsCRP and LDL-C showed significantly better discrimination (C-statistic = 0.735, P = .033). In stratified analysis, the full model showed better predictive power in terms of C-statistic in younger participants (<50 years, 0.709), females (0.726), and former or current smokers (0.742). The model calibrated well across the deciles of predicted risk in both the overall population (P_HL  = .689) and all subgroups.

CONCLUSIONS

We developed and internally validated an easy-to-use risk prediction model for lung cancer among the Chinese population that could provide guidance for screening and surveillance.

Will That Pulmonary Nodule Become Cancerous? A Risk Prediction Model for Incident Lung Cancer

This prospective investigation derived a prediction model for identifying risk of incident lung cancer among patients with visible lung nodules identified on computed tomography (CT). Among 2,924 eligible patients referred for evaluation of a pulmonary nodule to the Stony Brook Lung Cancer Evaluation Center between January 1, 2002 and December 31, 2015, 171 developed incident lung cancer during the observation period. Cox proportional hazard models were used to model time until disease onset. The sample was randomly divided into discovery (n = 1,469) and replication (n = 1,455) samples. In the replication sample, concordance was computed to indicate predictive accuracy and risk scores were calculated using the linear predictions. Youden index was used to identify high-risk versus low-risk patients and cumulative lung cancer incidence was examined for high-risk and low-risk groups. Multivariable analyses identified a combination of clinical and radiologic predictors for incident lung cancer including ln-age, ln-pack-years smoking, a history of cancer, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, and several radiologic markers including spiculation, ground glass opacity, and nodule size. The final model reliably detected patients who developed lung cancer in the replication sample (C = 0.86, sensitivity/specificity = 0.73/0.81). Cumulative incidence of lung cancer was elevated in high-risk versus low-risk groups [HR = 14.34; 95% confidence interval (CI), 8.17-25.18]. Quantification of reliable risk scores has high clinical utility, enabling physicians to better stratify treatment protocols to manage patient care. The final model is among the first tools developed to predict incident lung cancer in patients presenting with a concerning pulmonary nodule.

Implementation planning for lung cancer screening in China

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer-related deaths in China, with over 690 000 lung cancer deaths estimated in 2018. The mortality has increased about five-fold from the mid-1970s to the 2000s. Lung cancer low-dose computerized tomography (LDCT) screening in smokers was shown to improve survival in the US National Lung Screening Trial, and more recently in the European NELSON trial. However, although the predominant risk factor, smoking contributes to a lower fraction of lung cancers in China than in the UK and USA. Therefore, it is necessary to establish Chinese-specific screening strategies. There have been 23 associated programmes completed or still ongoing in China since the 1980s, mainly after 2000; and one has recently been planned. Generally, their entry criteria are not smoking-stringent. Most of the Chinese programmes have reported preliminary results only, which demonstrated a different high-risk subpopulation of lung cancer in China. Evidence concerning LDCT screening implementation is based on results of randomized controlled trials outside China. LDCT screening programmes combining tobacco control would produce more benefits. Population recruitment (e.g. risk-based selection), screening protocol, nodule management and cost-effectiveness are discussed in detail. In China, the high-risk subpopulation eligible for lung cancer screening has not as yet been confirmed, as all the risk parameters have not as yet been determined. Although evidence on best practice for implementation of lung cancer screening has been accumulating in other countries, further research in China is urgently required, as China is now facing a lung cancer epidemic.

Combining ctnnb1 genetic variability with epidemiologic factors to predict lung cancer susceptibility

OBJECTIVE

Early detection and diagnosis of lung cancer remain challenging but would improve patient prognosis. The goal of this study is to develop a model to estimate the risk of lung cancer for a given individual.

METHODS

We conducted a case-control study to develop a predictive model to identify individuals at high risk for lung cancer. Clinical data from 500 lung cancer patients and 500 population-based age- and gender-matched controls were used to develop and evaluate the model. Associations between environmental variants together with single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) of beta-catenin (ctnnb1) and lung cancer risk were analyzed using a logistic regression model. The predictive accuracy of the model was determined by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve.

RESULTS

Prior diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), pulmonary tuberculosis, family history of cancer, and smoking are lung cancer risk factors. The area under the curve (AUC) was 0.740, and the sensitivity, specificity, and Youden index were 0.718, 0.660, and 0.378, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Our risk prediction model for lung cancer is useful for distinguishing high-risk individuals.

From systems biology to P4 medicine: applications in respiratory medicine

Human health and disease are emergent properties of a complex, nonlinear, dynamic multilevel biological system: the human body. Systems biology is a comprehensive research strategy that has the potential to understand these emergent properties holistically. It stems from advancements in medical diagnostics, “omics” data and bioinformatic computing power. It paves the way forward towards “P4 medicine” (predictive, preventive, personalised and participatory), which seeks to better intervene preventively to preserve health or therapeutically to cure diseases. In this review, we: 1) discuss the principles of systems biology; 2) elaborate on how P4 medicine has the potential to shift healthcare from reactive medicine (treatment of illness) to predict and prevent illness, in a revolution that will be personalised in nature, probabilistic in essence and participatory driven; 3) review the current state of the art of network (systems) medicine in three prevalent respiratory diseases (chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, asthma and lung cancer); and 4) outline current challenges and future goals in the field.

Systems biology and network medicine have the potential to transform medical research and practicehttp://ow.ly/r3jR30hf35x

Applying Risk Prediction Models to Optimize Lung Cancer Screening: Current Knowledge, Challenges, and Future Directions

Purpose of review

Risk prediction models may be useful for facilitating effective and high-quality decision-making at critical steps in the lung cancer screening process. This review provides a current overview of published lung cancer risk prediction models and their applications to lung cancer screening and highlights both challenges and strategies for improving their predictive performance and use in clinical practice.

Recent findings

Since the 2011 publication of the National Lung Screening Trial results, numerous prediction models have been proposed to estimate the probability of developing or dying from lung cancer or the probability that a pulmonary nodule is malignant. Respective models appear to exhibit high discriminatory accuracy in identifying individuals at highest risk of lung cancer or differentiating malignant from benign pulmonary nodules. However, validation and critical comparison of the performance of these models in independent populations are limited. Little is also known about the extent to which risk prediction models are being applied in clinical practice and influencing decision-making processes and outcomes related to lung cancer screening.

Summary

Current evidence is insufficient to determine which lung cancer risk prediction models are most clinically useful and how to best implement their use to optimize screening effectiveness and quality. To address these knowledge gaps, future research should be directed toward validating and enhancing existing risk prediction models for lung cancer and evaluating the application of model-based risk calculators and its corresponding impact on screening processes and outcomes.

Implementation of lung cancer CT screening in the Nordic countries

INTRODUCTION

We review the current knowledge of CT screening for lung cancer and present an expert-based, joint protocol for the proper implementation of screening in the Nordic countries.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Experts representing all the Nordic countries performed literature review and concensus for a joint protocol for lung cancer screening.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Areas of concern and caution are presented and discussed. We suggest to perform CT screening pilot studies in the Nordic countries in order to gain experience and develop specific and safe protocols for the implementation of such a program.

Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Using Common SNPs Located in GWAS-Identified Susceptibility Regions

INTRODUCTION

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have consistently identified specific lung cancer susceptibility regions. We evaluated the lung cancer-predictive performance of single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in these regions.

METHODS

Lung cancer cases (N = 778) and controls (N = 1166) were genotyped for 77 SNPs located in GWAS-identified lung cancer susceptibility regions. Variable selection and model development used stepwise logistic regression and decision-tree analyses. In a subset nested in the Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study, change in area under the receiver operator characteristic curve and net reclassification improvement were used to compare predictions made by risk factor models with and without genetic variables.

RESULTS

Variable selection and model development kept two SNPs in each of three GWAS regions, rs2736100 and rs7727912 in 5p15.33, rs805297 and rs1802127 in 6p21.33, and rs8034191 and rs12440014 in 15q25.1. The ratio of cases to controls was three times higher among subjects with a high-risk genotype in every one as opposed to none of the three GWAS regions (odds ratio, 3.14; 95% confidence interval, 2.02-4.88; adjusted for sex, age, and pack-years). Adding a three-level classified count of GWAS regions with high-risk genotypes to an age and smoking risk factor-only model improved lung cancer prediction by a small amount: area under the receiver operator characteristic curve, 0.725 versus 0.717 (p = 0.056); overall net reclassification improvement was 0.052 across low-, intermediate-, and high- 6-year lung cancer risk categories (<3.0%, 3.0%-4.9%, ≥ 5.0%).

CONCLUSION

Specifying genotypes for SNPs in three GWAS-identified susceptibility regions improved lung cancer prediction, but probably by an extent too small to affect disease control practice.

A Novel Pathway-Based Approach Improves Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Using Germline Genetic Variations

BACKGROUND

Although genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified many genetic variants that are strongly associated with lung cancer, these variants have low penetrance and serve as poor predictors of lung cancer in individuals. We sought to increase the predictive value of germline variants by considering their cumulative effects in the context of biologic pathways.

METHODS

For individuals in the Environment and Genetics in Lung Cancer Etiology study (1,815 cases/1,971 controls), we computed pathway-level susceptibility effects as the sum of relevant SNP variant alleles weighted by their log-additive effects from a separate lung cancer GWAS meta-analysis (7,766 cases/37,482 controls). Logistic regression models based on age, sex, smoking, genetic variants, and principal components of pathway effects and pathway-smoking interactions were trained and optimized in cross-validation and further tested on an independent dataset (556 cases/830 controls). We assessed prediction performance using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

Compared with typical binomial prediction models that have epidemiologic predictors (AUC = 0.607) in addition to top GWAS variants (AUC = 0.617), our pathway-based smoking-interactive multinomial model significantly improved prediction performance in external validation (AUC = 0.656, P < 0.0001).

CONCLUSIONS

Our biologically informed approach demonstrated a larger increase in AUC over nongenetic counterpart models relative to previous approaches that incorporate variants.

IMPACT

This model is the first of its kind to evaluate lung cancer prediction using subtype-stratified genetic effects organized into pathways and interacted with smoking. We propose pathway-exposure interactions as a potentially powerful new contributor to risk inference. Cancer Epidemiol Biomarkers Prev; 25(8); 1208-15. ©2016 AACR.

Risk factors assessment and risk prediction models in lung cancer screening candidates

From February 2015, low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) screening entered the armamentarium of diagnostic tools broadly available to individuals at high-risk of developing lung cancer. While a huge number of pulmonary nodules are identified, only a small fraction turns out to be early lung cancers. The majority of them constitute a variety of benign lesions. Although it entails a burden of the diagnostic work-up, the undisputable benefit emerges from: (I) lung cancer diagnosis at earlier stages (stage shift); (II) additional findings enabling the implementation of a preventive action beyond the realm of thoracic oncology. This review presents how to utilize the risk factors from distinct categories such as epidemiology, radiology and biomarkers to target the fraction of population, which may benefit most from the introduced screening modality.

Biomarkers of risk to develop lung cancer in the new screening era

Low-dose computed tomography for high-risk individuals has for the first time demonstrated unequivocally that early detection save lives. The currently accepted screening strategy comes at the cost of a high rate of false positive findings while still missing a large percentage of the cases. Therefore, there is increasing interest in developing strategies to better estimate the risk of an individual to develop lung cancer, to increase the sensitivity of the screening process, to reduce screening costs and to reduce the numbers of individuals harmed by screening and follow-up interventions. New molecular biomarkers candidates show promise to improve lung cancer outcomes. This review discusses the current state of biomarker research in lung cancer screening with the primary focus on risk assessment.

Combining Telomerase Reverse Transcriptase Genetic Variant rs2736100 with Epidemiologic Factors in the Prediction of Lung Cancer Susceptibility

Genetic variants from a considerable number of susceptibility loci have been identified in association with cancer risk, but their interaction with epidemiologic factors in lung cancer remains to be defined. We sought to establish a forecasting model for identifying individuals with high-risk of lung cancer by combing gene single-nucleotide polymorphisms with epidemiologic factors. Genotyping and clinical data from 500 lung cancer cases and 500 controls were used for developing the logistic regression model. We found that lung cancer was associated with telomerase reverse transcriptase (TERT) rs2736100 single-nucleotide polymorphism. The TERT rs2736100 model was still significantly associated with lung cancer risk when combined with environmental and lifestyle factors, including lower education, lower BMI, COPD history, heavy cigarettes smoking, heavy cooking emission, and dietary factors (over-consumption of meat and deficiency in fish/shrimp, vegetables, dairy products, and soybean products). These data suggest that combining TERT SNP and epidemiologic factors may be a useful approach to discriminate high and low-risk individuals for lung cancer.

Incorporating epistasis interaction of genetic susceptibility single nucleotide polymorphisms in a lung cancer risk prediction model

Incorporation of genetic variants such as single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) into risk prediction models may account for a substantial fraction of attributable disease risk. Genetic data, from 2385 subjects recruited into the Liverpool Lung Project (LLP) between 2000 and 2008, consisting of 20 SNPs independently validated in a candidate-gene discovery study was used. Multifactor dimensionality reduction (MDR) and random forest (RF) were used to explore evidence of epistasis among 20 replicated SNPs. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify similar risk predictors for lung cancer in the LLP risk model for the epidemiological model and extended model with SNPs. Both models were internally validated using the bootstrap method and model performance was assessed using area under the curve (AUC) and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Using MDR and RF, the overall best classifier of lung cancer status were SNPs rs1799732 (DRD2), rs5744256 (IL-18), rs2306022 (ITGA11) with training accuracy of 0.6592 and a testing accuracy of 0.6572 and a cross-validation consistency of 10/10 with permutation testing P<0.0001. The apparent AUC of the epidemiological model was 0.75 (95% CI 0.73–0.77). When epistatic data were incorporated in the extended model, the AUC increased to 0.81 (95% CI 0.79–0.83) which corresponds to 8% increase in AUC (DeLong's test P=2.2e-¹⁶); 17.5% by NRI. After correction for optimism, the AUC was 0.73 for the epidemiological model and 0.79 for the extended model. Our results showed modest improvement in lung cancer risk prediction when the SNP epistasis factor was added.

Epidemiology of Lung Cancer

Lung cancer continues to be one of the most common causes of cancer death despite understanding the major cause of the disease: cigarette smoking. Smoking increases lung cancer risk 5- to 10-fold with a clear dose-response relationship. Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke among nonsmokers increases lung cancer risk about 20%. Risks for marijuana and hookah use, and the new e-cigarettes, are yet to be consistently defined and will be important areas for continued research as use of these products increases. Other known environmental risk factors include exposures to radon, asbestos, diesel, and ionizing radiation. Host factors have also been associated with lung cancer risk, including family history of lung cancer, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and infections. Studies to identify genes associated with lung cancer susceptibility have consistently identified chromosomal regions on 15q25, 6p21 and 5p15 associated with lung cancer risk. Risk prediction models for lung cancer typically include age, sex, cigarette smoking intensity and/or duration, medical history, and occupational exposures, however there is not yet a risk prediction model currently recommended for general use. As lung cancer screening becomes more widespread, a validated model will be needed to better define risk groups to inform screening guidelines.

Risk Prediction Models for Lung Cancer: A Systematic Review

Many lung cancer risk prediction models have been published but there has been no systematic review or comprehensive assessment of these models to assess how they could be used in screening. We performed a systematic review of lung cancer prediction models and identified 31 articles that related to 25 distinct models, of which 11 considered epidemiological factors only and did not require a clinical input. Another 11 articles focused on models that required a clinical assessment such as a blood test or scan, and 8 articles considered the 2-stage clonal expansion model. More of the epidemiological models had been externally validated than the more recent clinical assessment models. There was varying discrimination, the ability of a model to distinguish between cases and controls, with an area under the curve between 0.57 and 0.879 and calibration, the model's ability to assign an accurate probability to an individual. In our review we found that further validation studies need to be considered; especially for the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening Trial 2012 Model Version (PLCOM2012) and Hoggart models, which recorded the best overall performance. Future studies will need to focus on prediction rules, such as optimal risk thresholds, for models for selective screening trials. Only 3 validation studies considered prediction rules when validating the models and overall the models were validated using varied tests in distinct populations, which made direct comparisons difficult. To improve this, multiple models need to be tested on the same data set with considerations for sensitivity, specificity, model accuracy, and positive predictive values at the optimal risk thresholds.

Screening for lung cancer using low-dose computed tomography: concerns about the application in low-risk individuals

Low-dose computed tomography (LDCT) has been increasingly accepted as an efficient screening method for high-risk individuals to reduce lung cancer mortality. However, there remains a gap of knowledge in the practical implementation of screening on a larger scale, especially for low-risk individuals. The aim of this study is to initiate discussion through an evidence-based analysis and provide valuable suggestions on LDCT screening for lung cancer in clinical practice. Among previously published randomized controlled trials (RCTs), the National Lung Screening Trial (NLST) is the only one demonstrating positive results in a high-risk population of old age and heavy smokers. It is also shown that the potential harms include false-positive findings, radiation exposure etc., but its magnitude is uncertain. In the meantime, the current risk stratification system is inadequate, and is difficult to define selection criteria. Thus, the efficacy of LDCT in lung cancer screening needs to be confirmed in future trials, and the procedure should not be proposed to individuals without comparable risk to those in the NLST. Furthermore, there is a lack of evidence to support the expansion of LDCT screening to low-risk individuals. Therefore, recommendation of LDCT screening for these patients could be premature in clinical practice although some of them might be missed based on current definition of risk factors. Further studies and advances in risk assessment tools are urgently needed to address the concerns about lung cancer screening in order to improve the outcomes of lung cancer.

An individual risk prediction model for lung cancer based on a study in a Chinese population

AIMS AND BACKGROUND

Early detection and diagnosis remains an effective yet challenging approach to improve the clinical outcome of patients with cancer. Low-dose computed tomography screening has been suggested to improve the diagnosis of lung cancer in high-risk individuals. To make screening more efficient, it is necessary to identify individuals who are at high risk.

METHODS AND STUDY DESIGN

We conducted a case-control study to develop a predictive model for identification of such high-risk individuals. Clinical data from 705 lung cancer patients and 988 population-based controls were used for the development and evaluation of the model. Associations between environmental variants and lung cancer risk were analyzed with a logistic regression model. The predictive accuracy of the model was determined by calculating the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve and the optimal operating point.

RESULTS

Our results indicate that lung cancer risk factors included older age, male gender, lower education level, family history of cancer, history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, lower body mass index, smoking cigarettes, a diet with less seafood, vegetables, fruits, dairy products, soybean products and nuts, a diet rich in meat, and exposure to pesticides and cooking emissions. The area under the curve was 0.8851 and the optimal operating point was obtained. With a cutoff of 0.35, the false positive rate, true positive rate, and Youden index were 0.21, 0.87, and 0.66, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The risk prediction model for lung cancer developed in this study could discriminate high-risk from low-risk individuals.

A simple-to-use method incorporating genomic markers into prostate cancer risk prediction tools facilitated future validation

OBJECTIVES

To incorporate single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) into the Prostate Cancer Prevention Trial Risk Calculator (PCPTRC).

STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING

A multivariate random-effects meta-analysis of likelihood ratios (LRs) for 30 validated SNPs was performed, allowing the incorporation of linkage disequilibrium. LRs for an SNP were defined as the ratio of the probability of observing the SNP in prostate cancer cases relative to controls and estimated by published allele or genotype frequencies. LRs were multiplied by the PCPTRC prior odds of prostate cancer to provide updated posterior odds.

RESULTS

In the meta-analysis (prostate cancer cases/controls = 386,538/985,968), all but two of the SNPs had at least one statistically significant allele LR (P < 0.05). The two SNPs with the largest LRs were rs16901979 [LR = 1.575 for one risk allele, 2.552 for two risk alleles (homozygous)] and rs1447295 (LR = 1.307 and 1.887, respectively).

CONCLUSION

The substantial investment in genome-wide association studies to discover SNPs associated with prostate cancer risk and the ability to integrate these findings into the PCPTRC allows investigators to validate these observations, to determine the clinical impact, and to ultimately improve clinical practice in the early detection of the most common cancer in men.

Metformin decreases lung cancer risk in diabetic patients in a dose-dependent manner

OBJECTIVES

Higher risk of lung cancer has been noted in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM). Some observational studies have shown a reduced risk of lung cancer in DM patients taking metformin, but a dose-response relationship has never been reported. The aim of this study is to exam the association between the dose of metformin and the incidence of lung cancer in a Chinese population.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The dataset used for this nationwide population-based study is a cohort of 1 million subjects randomly sampled from individuals enrolled in the Taiwan National Health Insurance system. We enrolled all subjects with newly diagnosed type 2 DM between 1997 and 2007. Subjects with a diagnosis of neoplasm before DM diagnosis, those using metformin before DM diagnosis, those with polycystic ovary syndrome, and those with a DM diagnosis before their 15 years of age were excluded. The demographic data and duration, cumulative dose and intensity of metformin use were compared between patients developing lung cancer and those without lung cancer.

RESULTS

Totally, 47,356 subjects were identified. After adjusting for age, gender, and modified Charlson Comorbidity Index score, the utilization of metformin was an independent protecting factor, and the risk of developing lung cancer decreased progressively with either the higher cumulative dose or the higher intensity of metformin use.

CONCLUSIONS

This study revealed that the use of metformin decreased the risk of lung cancer in a dose-dependent manner in patients with type 2 DM. The chemo-preventive effect of metformin deserves further study.

A review of cancer risk prediction models with genetic variants

Cancer risk prediction models are important in identifying individuals at high risk of developing cancer, which could result in targeted screening and interventions to maximize the treatment benefit and minimize the burden of cancer. The cancer-associated genetic variants identified in genome-wide or candidate gene association studies have been shown to collectively enhance cancer risk prediction, improve our understanding of carcinogenesis, and possibly result in the development of targeted treatments for patients. In this article, we review the cancer risk prediction models that have been developed for popular cancers and assess their applicability, strengths, and weaknesses. We also discuss the factors to be considered for future development and improvement of models for cancer risk prediction.

Incorporation of detailed family history from the Swedish Family Cancer Database into the PCPT risk calculator

PURPOSE

A detailed family history provides an inexpensive alternative to genetic profiling for individual risk assessment. We updated the PCPT Risk Calculator to include detailed family histories.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

The study included 55,168 prostate cancer cases and 638,218 controls from the Swedish Family Cancer Database who were 55 years old or older in 1999 and had at least 1 male first-degree relative 40 years old or older and 1 female first-degree relative 30 years old or older. Likelihood ratios, calculated as the ratio of risk of observing a specific family history pattern in a prostate cancer case compared to a control, were used to update the PCPT Risk Calculator.

RESULTS

Having at least 1 relative with prostate cancer increased the risk of prostate cancer. The likelihood ratio was 1.63 for 1 first-degree relative 60 years old or older at diagnosis (10.1% of cancer cases vs 6.2% of controls), 2.47 if the relative was younger than 60 years (1.5% vs 0.6%), 3.46 for 2 or more relatives 60 years old or older (1.2% vs 0.3%) and 5.68 for 2 or more relatives younger than 60 years (0.05% vs 0.009%). Among men with no diagnosed first-degree relatives the likelihood ratio was 1.09 for 1 or more second-degree relatives diagnosed with prostate cancer (12.7% vs 11.7%). Additional first-degree relatives with breast cancer, or first-degree or second-degree relatives with prostate cancer compounded these risks.

CONCLUSIONS

A detailed family history is an independent predictor of prostate cancer compared to commonly used risk factors. It should be incorporated into decision making for biopsy. Compared with other costly biomarkers it is inexpensive and universally available.

The cytokinesis-blocked micronucleus assay as a strong predictor of lung cancer: extension of a lung cancer risk prediction model

BACKGROUND

There is an urgent need to improve lung cancer outcome by identifying and validating markers of risk. We previously reported that the cytokinesis-blocked micronucleus assay (CBMN) is a strong predictor of lung cancer risk. Here, we validate our findings in an independent external lung cancer population and test discriminatory power improvement of the Spitz risk prediction model upon extension with this biomarker.

METHODS

A total of 1,506 participants were stratified into a test set of 995 (527 cases/468 controls) from MD Anderson Cancer Center (Houston, TX) and a validation set of 511 (239 cases/272 controls) from Massachusetts General Hospital (Boston, MA). An epidemiologic questionnaire was administered and genetic instability was assessed using the CBMN assay.

RESULTS

Excellent concordance was observed between the two populations in levels and distribution of CBMN endpoints [binucleated-micronuclei (BN-MN), binucleated-nucleoplasmic bridges (BN-NPB)] with significantly higher mean BN-MN and BN-NPB values among cases (P < 0.0001). Extension of the Spitz model led to an overall improvement in the AUC (95% confidence intervals) from 0.61 (55.5-65.7) with epidemiologic variables to 0.92 (89.4-94.2) with addition of the BN-MN endpoint. The most dramatic improvement was observed with the never-smokers extended model followed by the former and current smokers.

CONCLUSIONS

The CBMN assay is a sensitive and specific predictor of lung cancer risk, and extension of the Spitz risk prediction model led to an AUC that may prove useful in population screening programs to identify the "true" high-risk individuals.

IMPACT

Identifying high-risk subgroups that would benefit from screening surveillance has immense public health significance.

Cancer stem cell marker Musashi-1 rs2522137 genotype is associated with an increased risk of lung cancer

Gene single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) have been extensively studied in association with development and prognosis of various malignancies. However, the potential role of genetic polymorphisms of cancer stem cell (CSC) marker genes with respect to cancer risk has not been examined. We conducted a case-control study involving a total of 1000 subjects (500 lung cancer patients and 500 age-matched cancer-free controls) from northeastern China. Lung cancer risk was analyzed in a logistic regression model in association with genotypes of four lung CSC marker genes (CD133, ALDH1, Musashi-1, and EpCAM). Using univariate analysis, the Musashi-1 rs2522137 GG genotype was found to be associated with a higher incidence of lung cancer compared with the TT genotype. No significant associations were observed for gene variants of CD133, ALDH1, or EpCAM. In multivariate analysis, Musashi-1 rs2522137 was still significantly associated with lung cancer when environmental and lifestyle factors were incorporated in the model, including lower BMI; family history of cancer; prior diagnosis of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, pneumonia, or pulmonary tuberculosis; occupational exposure to pesticide; occupational exposure to gasoline or diesel fuel; heavier smoking; and exposure to heavy cooking emissions. The value of the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) was 0.7686. To our knowledge, this is the first report to show an association between a Musashi-1 genotype and lung cancer risk. Further, the prediction model in this study may be useful in determining individuals with high risk of lung cancer.

DNA methylation subgroups and the CpG island methylator phenotype in gastric cancer: a comprehensive profiling approach

BACKGROUND

Methylation-induced silencing of promoter CpG islands in tumor suppressor genes plays an important role in human carcinogenesis. In colorectal cancer, the CpG island methylator phenotype (CIMP) is defined as widespread and elevated levels of DNA methylation and CIMP+ tumors have distinctive clinicopathological and molecular features. In contrast, the existence of a comparable CIMP subtype in gastric cancer (GC) has not been clearly established. To further investigate this issue, in the present study we performed comprehensive DNA methylation profiling of a well-characterised series of primary GC.

METHODS

The methylation status of 1,421 autosomal CpG sites located within 768 cancer-related genes was investigated using the Illumina GoldenGate Methylation Panel I assay on DNA extracted from 60 gastric tumors and matched tumor-adjacent gastric tissue pairs. Methylation data was analysed using a recursively partitioned mixture model and investigated for associations with clinicopathological and molecular features including age, Helicobacter pylori status, tumor site, patient survival, microsatellite instability and BRAF and KRAS mutations.

RESULTS

A total of 147 genes were differentially methylated between tumor and matched tumor-adjacent gastric tissue, with HOXA5 and hedgehog signalling being the top-ranked gene and signalling pathway, respectively. Unsupervised clustering of methylation data revealed the existence of 6 subgroups under two main clusters, referred to as L (low methylation; 28% of cases) and H (high methylation; 72%). Female patients were over-represented in the H tumor group compared to L group (36% vs 6%; P = 0.024), however no other significant differences in clinicopathological or molecular features were apparent. CpG sites that were hypermethylated in group H were more frequently located in CpG islands and marked for polycomb occupancy.

CONCLUSIONS

High-throughput methylation analysis implicates genes involved in embryonic development and hedgehog signaling in gastric tumorigenesis. GC is comprised of two major methylation subtypes, with the highly methylated group showing some features consistent with a CpG island methylator phenotype.

Prospects for population screening and diagnosis of lung cancer

Deaths from lung cancer exceed those from any other type of malignancy, with 1·5 million deaths in 2010. Prevention and smoking cessation are still the main methods to reduce the death toll. The US National Lung Screening Trial, which compared CT screening with chest radiograph, yielded a mortality advantage of 20% to participants in the CT group. International debate is ongoing about whether sufficient evidence exists to implement CT screening programmes. When questions about effectiveness and cost-effectiveness have been answered, which will await publication of the largest European trial, NELSON, and pooled analysis of European CT screening trials, we discuss the main topics that will need consideration. These unresolved issues are risk prediction models to identify patients for CT screening; radiological protocols that use volumetric analysis for indeterminate nodules; options for surgical resection of CT-identified nodules; screening interval; and duration of screening. We suggest that a demonstration project of biennial screening over a 4-year period should be undertaken.

Advanced colorectal neoplasia risk stratification by penalized logistic regression

Colorectal cancer is the second leading cause of death from cancer in the United States. To facilitate the efficiency of colorectal cancer screening, there is a need to stratify risk for colorectal cancer among the 90% of US residents who are considered "average risk." In this article, we investigate such risk stratification rules for advanced colorectal neoplasia (colorectal cancer and advanced, precancerous polyps). We use a recently completed large cohort study of subjects who underwent a first screening colonoscopy. Logistic regression models have been used in the literature to estimate the risk of advanced colorectal neoplasia based on quantifiable risk factors. However, logistic regression may be prone to overfitting and instability in variable selection. Since most of the risk factors in our study have several categories, it was tempting to collapse these categories into fewer risk groups. We propose a penalized logistic regression method that automatically and simultaneously selects variables, groups categories, and estimates their coefficients by penalizing the [Formula: see text]-norm of both the coefficients and their differences. Hence, it encourages sparsity in the categories, i.e. grouping of the categories, and sparsity in the variables, i.e. variable selection. We apply the penalized logistic regression method to our data. The important variables are selected, with close categories simultaneously grouped, by penalized regression models with and without the interactions terms. The models are validated with 10-fold cross-validation. The receiver operating characteristic curves of the penalized regression models dominate the receiver operating characteristic curve of naive logistic regressions, indicating a superior discriminative performance.

Polymorphisms in seizure 6-like gene are associated with bipolar disorder I: evidence of gene × gender interaction

BACKGROUND

Previous reports have suggested that there may be gene × gender interaction for bipolar disorder (BD)-associated genes/loci at 22q11-13. This study aimed to investigate the associations of SEZ6L genetic variants with bipolar disorder I (BD-I) and to examine gender-specific genetic associations.

METHODS

605 BD-I Caucasian cases and 1034 controls were selected from the publicly available data of the Whole Genome Association Study of BD. To increase power, an additional 362 Caucasian controls were added to this study from the Genome-Wide Association Study of Schizophrenia. In total, 605 BD-I cases and 1396 controls (934 males and 1067 females) were available for genetic association analysis of 118 SNPs within the SEZ6L gene using PLINK software.

RESULTS

16 SNPs showed significant gene x gender interactions influencing BD-I (P<0.01). In addition, significant differences in the distribution of the alleles for these 16 SNPs were observed between the female BD-I patients and healthy controls (P<0.015) but no significant associations were found for the male sample (P>0.05). The SNP rs4822691 showed the strongest association with BD-I in the female sample (P=2.18 × 10(-4)) and the strongest gene × gender interaction in influencing BD-I (P=9.16 × 10(-5)).

LIMITATIONS

The findings of this study need to be replicated in independent samples.

CONCLUSIONS

This is the first demonstration that genetic variants in the SEZ6L gene are associated with BD-I in female patients and provides additional compelling evidence for genetic variation at 22q11-13 that influences BD-I risk. The present findings highlight the gene x gender interactions modifying BD-I susceptibility.

Personalized medicine and access to health care: potential for inequitable access?

Personalized medicine promises that an individual's genetic information will be increasingly used to prioritize access to health care. Use of genetic information to inform medical decision making, however, raises questions as to whether such use could be inequitable. Using breast cancer genetic risk prediction models as an example, on the surface clinical use of genetic information is consistent with the tools provided by evidence-based medicine, representing a means to equitably distribute limited health-care resources. However, at present, given limitations inherent to the tools themselves, and the mechanisms surrounding their implementation, it becomes clear that reliance on an individual's genetic information as part of medical decision making could serve as a vehicle through which disparities are perpetuated under public and private health-care delivery models. The potential for inequities arising from using genetic information to determine access to health care has been rarely discussed. Yet, it raises legal and ethical questions distinct from those raised surrounding genetic discrimination in employment or access to private insurance. Given the increasing role personalized medicine is forecast to play in the provision of health care, addressing a broader view of what constitutes genetic discrimination, one that occurs along a continuum and includes inequitable access, will be needed during the implementation of new applications based on individual genetic profiles. Only by anticipating and addressing the potential for inequitable access to health care occurring from using genetic information will we move closer to realizing the goal of personalized medicine: to improve the health of individuals.

The effect of metformin and thiazolidinedione use on lung cancer in diabetics

Background

Metformin and the thiazolidinediones (TZDs) may have a protective effect against the development of lung cancer.

Methods

Patients with diabetes mellitus (DM) were identified from the electronic medical records of the Cleveland Clinic. Diabetics with lung cancer were identified then verified by direct review of their records. Control subjects were matched with cancer subjects 1:1 by date of birth, sex, and smoking history. The frequency and duration of diabetic medication use was compared between the groups. The cancer characteristics were compared between those with lung cancer who had and had not been using metformin and/or a TZD.

Results

93,939 patients were identified as having DM. 522 lung cancers in 507 patients were confirmed. The matched control group was more likely to have used metformin and/or a TZD (61.0% vs. 41.2%, p < 0.001 for any use; 55.5% vs. 24.6%, p < 0.001 for >24 months vs. 0–12 months). In the group with lung cancer, those who had used metformin alone had a different histology distribution than those who received neither metformin nor a TZD, were more likely to present with metastatic disease (40.8% vs. 28.2%, p = 0.013), and had a shorter survival from the time of diagnosis (HR 1.47, p < 0.005).

Conclusions

The use of metformin and/or the TZDs is associated with a lower likelihood of developing lung cancer in diabetic patients. Diabetics who develop lung cancer while receiving metformin may have a more aggressive cancer phenotype.

Exhaled breath analysis with a colorimetric sensor array for the identification and characterization of lung cancer

INTRODUCTION

The pattern of exhaled breath volatile organic compounds represents a metabolic biosignature with the potential to identify and characterize lung cancer. Breath biosignature-based classification of homogeneous subgroups of lung cancer may be more accurate than a global breath signature. Combining breath biosignatures with clinical risk factors may improve the accuracy of the signature.

OBJECTIVES

To develop an exhaled breath biosignature of lung cancer using a colorimetric sensor array and to determine the accuracy of breath biosignatures of lung cancer characteristics with and without the inclusion of clinical risk factors.

METHODS

The exhaled breath of 229 study subjects, 92 with lung cancer and 137 controls, was drawn across a colorimetric sensor array. Logistic prediction models were developed and statistically validated based on the color changes of the sensor. Age, sex, smoking history, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease were incorporated in the prediction models.

RESULTS

The validated prediction model of the combined breath and clinical biosignature was moderately accurate at distinguishing lung cancer from control subjects (C-statistic 0.811). The accuracy improved when the model focused on only one histology (C-statistic 0.825-0.890). Individuals with different histologies could be accurately distinguished from one another (C-statistic 0.864 for adenocarcinoma versus squamous cell carcinoma). Moderate accuracies were noted for validated breath biosignatures of stage and survival (C-statistic 0.785 and 0.693, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

A colorimetric sensor array is capable of identifying exhaled breath biosignatures of lung cancer. The accuracy of breath biosignatures can be optimized by evaluating specific histologies and incorporating clinical risk factors.

Personalized genomic medicine

Personalized medicine provide to physicians a molecular makeup of each patient. Looking at the patient on this level helps the physician get a profile of the patient's genetic distinction, or mapping. By investigating this genetic profile, medical professionals are then able to select patients, and use the found information to plan out a course of treatment that is much more in step with the way their body works. Personalize medicine is a direct extension of the genomic medicine that use genetic information to prevent or treat disease in adults or their children.