Derivation and Validation of the CREST Model for Very Early Prediction of Circulatory Etiology Death in Patients Without ST-Segment-Elevation Myocardial Infarction After Cardiac Arrest

Metabolic effects of high-dose glucocorticoid following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

BACKGROUND AND AIM

Patients resuscitated after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) face high morbidity and mortality rates, primarily due to ischemia-reperfusion injury, a complex metabolic disorder that triggers a significant systemic inflammatory response. Glucocorticoids mitigate inflammation but also impact the cells beyond the immune response. This study aims to identify glucocorticoid effects on plasma metabolites.

METHODS

This explorative sub-study is part of a two-center, blinded, randomized controlled trial (NCT04624776) examining the effects of high-dose glucocorticoid on comatose patients resuscitated from OHCA of presumed cardiac origin. Following resuscitation, patients received 250 mg of methylprednisolone or a placebo in the prehospital setting. Blood samples were collected upon hospital admission and 48 h later. Sixty metabolites were quantified in the plasma using mass spectrometry and compared between groups.

RESULTS

In the modified intention-to-treat population, 68 patients received methylprednisolone, and 69 received placebo [median age was 66 years (IQR: 56-74) and 83% were men]. Blood samples were available for 130 patients, 121 (88%) at admission and 117 patients (94% of patients alive) after 48 h. Although a nominal difference was observed at admission, no significant metabolic effects were found after correcting for multiple testing. After 48 h, the placebo group had 83.4% (95% CI 16.9-187.6%) higher prostaglandin E2 and higher levels of linolenic acid and arachidonic acid. The methylprednisolone group had higher levels of tryptophan (47.6%; 95% CI 27.9-70.2%), arginine, and propionylcarnitine (C3).

CONCLUSIONS

In this exploratory study, early administration of 250 mg of methylprednisolone after resuscitation appeared to drive sustained metabolic effects over 48 h. Specifically, methylprednisolone led to reductions in ω-6 fatty acids and increases in several amino acids, with a notable rise in tryptophan.

Development and validation of machine learning-based prediction model for outcome of cardiac arrest in intensive care units

Cardiac arrest (CA) poses a significant global health challenge and often results in poor prognosis. We developed an interpretable and applicable machine learning (ML) model for predicting in-hospital mortality of CA patients who survived more than 72 h. A total of 721 patients were extracted from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care IV database, divided into the training set (n = 576) and the internal validation set (n = 145). The external validation set containing 856 cases were collected from four tertiary hospitals in Zhejiang Province. The primary outcome was in-hospital mortality. Eleven ML algorithms were utilized to establish prediction models based on data from 72 h after return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC). The results indicate that the CatBoost model exhibited the best performance at 72 h. Eleven variables were ultimately selected as key features by recursive feature elimination (RFE) to construct a compact model. The final model achieved the highest AUC of 0.86 (0.80, 0.92) in the internal validation and 0.76 (0.73, 0.79) in the external validation. SHAP summary plots and force plots visually explained the predicted outcomes. In conclusion, 72-h CatBoost showed promising performance in predicting in-hospital mortality of CA patients who survived more than 72 h. The model still requires further optimization and improvement.

Early detection of psoriatic arthritis in patients with psoriasis: construction of a multifactorial prediction model

Psoriatic arthritis (PsA) affects approximately one in five individuals with psoriasis. Early identification of patients with psoriasis at risk of developing PsA is crucial to prevent poor prognosis. We established a derivation cohort comprising 1,661 patients with psoriasis from 49 hospitals. Clinical and demographic variables ascertained at hospital admission were screened using the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator and logistic regression to construct a prediction model and a new web-based calculator. Ultimately, six significant independent predictors were identified: history of unexplained swollen joints (odds ratio [OR]: 5.814, 95% confidence interval [95% CI]: 3.304-10.117; p< 0.001), history of arthritis (OR: 3.543, 95% CI: 1.982-6.246; p< 0.001), history of unexplained swollen and painful fingers or toes (OR: 2.707, 95% CI: 1.463-4.915; p = 0.001), nail involvement (OR: 1.907, 95% CI: 1.235-2.912; p = 0.003), hyperlipidemia (OR: 4.265, 95% CI: 0.921-15.493; p = 0.042), and prolonged topical use of glucocorticosteroids (OR: 1.581, 95% CI: 1.052-2.384, p = 0.028). The web-based calculator derived from this model can assist clinicians in promptly determining the probability of developing PsA in patients with psoriasis, thereby facilitating improved clinical decision-making.

Validation of the CREST model and comparison with SCAI shock classification for the prediction of circulatory death in resuscitated out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

AIMS

We validated the CREST model, a 5 variable score for stratifying the risk of circulatory aetiology death (CED) following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) and compared its discrimination with the SCAI shock classification. Circulatory aetiology death occurs in approximately a third of patients admitted after resuscitated OHCA. There is an urgent need for improved stratification of the patient with OHCA on arrival to a cardiac arrest centre to improve patient selection for invasive interventions.

METHODS AND RESULTS

The CREST model and SCAI shock classification were applied to a dual-centre registry of 723 patients with cardiac aetiology OHCA, both with and without ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), between May 2012 and December 2020. The primary endpoint was a 30-day CED. Of 509 patients included (62.3 years, 75.4% male), 125 patients had CREST = 0 (24.5%), 162 had CREST = 1 (31.8%), 140 had CREST = 2 (27.5%), 75 had CREST = 3 (14.7%), 7 had a CREST of 4 (1.4%), and no patients had CREST = 5. Circulatory aetiology death was observed in 91 (17.9%) patients at 30 days [STEMI: 51/289 (17.6%); non-STEMI (NSTEMI): 40/220 (18.2%)]. For the total population, and both NSTEMI and STEMI subpopulations, an increasing CREST score was associated with increasing CED (all P < 0.001). The CREST score and SCAI classification had similar discrimination for the total population [area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) = 0.72/calibration slope = 0.95], NSTEMI cohort (AUC = 0.75/calibration slope = 0.940), and STEMI cohort (AUC = 0.69 and calibration slope = 0.925). Area under the receiver operating curve meta-analyses demonstrated no significant differences between the two classifications.

CONCLUSION

The CREST model and SCAI shock classification show similar prediction results for the development of CED after OHCA.

Coronary angiography after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest without ST-segment elevation: a systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised trials

BACKGROUND

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) has a poor prognosis. The optimal timing and role of early coronary angiography (CAG) in OHCA patients without ST-segment elevation remains unclear. The goal of this study is to compare an early CAG versus delayed CAG strategy in OHCA patients without ST elevation.

METHODS

We systematically searched PubMed, Embase and Cochrane databases, in June 2022, for randomised controlled trials (RCTs) comparing early versus delayed early CAG. A random effects meta-analysis was performed.

RESULTS

A total of seven RCTs were included, providing a total of 1625 patients: 816 in an early strategy and 807 in a delayed strategy. In terms of outcomes assessed, our meta-analysis revealed a similar rate of all-cause mortality (pooled odds ratio [OR] 1.22 [0.99-1.50], P  = 0.06, I 2  = 0%), neurological status (pooled OR 0.94 [0.74-1.21], = 0.65, I 2  = 0%), need of renal replacement therapy (pooled OR 1.11 [0.78-1.74], P  = 0.47, I 2  = 0%) and major bleeding events (pooled OR 1.51 [0.95-2.40], P  = 0.08, I 2  = 69%).

CONCLUSION

According to our meta-analysis, in patients who experienced OHCA without ST elevation, early CAG is not associated with reduced mortality or an improved neurological status.

Prognostic value of neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients receiving targeted temperature management: An observational cohort study

BACKGROUND

Out-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a major cause of mortality and morbidity worldwide. The magnitude of the post-resuscitation inflammatory response is closely related to the severity of the circulatory dysfunction. Currently, targeted temperature management (TTM) has become an essential part of the post-resuscitation care for unconscious OHCA survivors. Some novel prognostic inflammatory markers may help predict outcomes of OHCA patients after TTM.

METHODS

A retrospective observational cohort study of 65 OHCA patients treated with TTM was conducted in a tertiary hospital in Taiwan. The primary outcome measure was in-hospital mortality. Baseline and post-TTM neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet to lymphocyte (PLR), and the systemic immune inflammation index (SII) were identified as potential predictors.

RESULTS

These patients had a mean age of 62.2 ± 17.0 years. Among the total sample, 53.8% had an initial shockable rhythm and 61.5% had a presumed cardiac etiology. The median resuscitation duration was 20 min (IQR 13.5-28.5) and 60% received subsequent percutaneous coronary intervention. The mean baseline NLR, PLR and SII were 7.5 ± 16.7, 118 ± 207, 1395 ± 3004, and the mean post-TTM NLR, PLR and SII were 15.0 ± 11.6, 206 ± 124, 2369 ± 2569, respectively. Using multiple logistic regression analysis, post-TTM NLR was one of the independent factors which predicted in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio (aOR): 1.249, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.040-1.501, p = 0.017).

CONCLUSION

Post-TTM NLR is a predictor of in-hospital mortality in OHCA patients who underwent TTM.

Prognostic predictors in patients with cardiopulmonary arrest: A novel equation for evaluating the 30-day mortality

BACKGROUND

Early prediction of outcomes after cardiopulmonary arrest (CPA) is important for considering the best support. Our purpose was to evaluate predictors of the 30-day mortality in patients with CPA after return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and to assess an equation for calculating the 30-day mortality using clinical parameters.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed the data of 194 consecutive patients with CPA and ROSC in a derivation study (2015-2022). We compared clinical parameters between the survived (n = 78) and dead (n = 116) patients. We derived an equation for estimated probability of death based on clinical parameters, using multivariate logistic regression analysis. The reliability of the equation was validated in 80 additional patients with CPA.

RESULTS

The 30-day mortality was associated with sex, witnessed cardiac arrest, bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), CPA due to acute myocardial infarction, pupil diameter, Glasgow Coma Scale score (GCS), presence of light reflex, arterial or venous pH, lactate levels, initial ventricular fibrillation (VF), CPA time, and age. The derived logistic regression equation was as follows: Estimated probability of death = 1 / (1 + e-x), x = (0.25 × bystander CPR) + (0.44 × pupil diameter) - (0.14 × GCS) + (0.09 × lactate) - (1.87 × initial VF) + (0.07 × CPA time) + (0.05 × age) - 7.03. The cut-off value for estimated probability of death calculated by this equation was 54.5 %, yielding a sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 86.2 %, 80.8 %, and 84.5 %, respectively. In the validation model, these values were 81.8 %, 85.7 %, and 82.5 %, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The 30-day mortality may be calculated after ROSC in patients with CPA using simple clinical parameters. This equation may facilitate further best support for patients with CPA.

External validation of the CREST model to predict early circulatory-etiology death after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest without initial ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction

BACKGROUND

The CREST model is a prediction model, quantitating the risk of circulatory-etiology death (CED) after cardiac arrest based on variables available at hospital admission, and intend to guide the triage of comatose patients without ST-segment-elevation myocardial infarction after successful cardiopulmonary resuscitation. This study assessed performance of the CREST model in the Target Temperature Management (TTM) trial cohort.

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed data from resuscitated out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients in the TTM-trial. Demographics, clinical characteristics, and CREST variables (history of coronary artery disease, initial heart rhythm, initial ejection fraction, shock at admission and ischemic time > 25 min) were assessed in univariate and multivariable analysis. The primary outcome was CED. The discriminatory power of the logistic regression model was assessed using the C-statistic and goodness of fit was tested according to Hosmer-Lemeshow.

RESULTS

Among 329 patients eligible for final analysis, 71 (22%) had CED. History of ischemic heart disease, previous arrhythmia, older age, initial non-shockable rhythm, shock at admission, ischemic time > 25 min and severe left ventricular dysfunction were variables associated with CED in univariate analysis. CREST variables were entered into a logistic regression model and the area under the curve for the model was 0.73 with adequate calibration according to Hosmer-Lemeshow test (p = 0.602).

CONCLUSIONS

The CREST model had good validity and a discrimination capability for predicting circulatory-etiology death after resuscitation from cardiac arrest without ST-segment elevation myocardial infarction. Application of this model could help to triage high-risk patients for transfer to specialized cardiac centers.

Factors associated with circulatory death after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest: a population-based cluster analysis

BACKGROUND

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a common cause of death. Early circulatory failure is the most common reason for death within the first 48 h. This study in intensive care unit (ICU) patients with OHCA was designed to identify and characterize clusters based on clinical features and to determine the frequency of death from refractory postresuscitation shock (RPRS) in each cluster.

METHODS

We retrospectively identified adults admitted alive to ICUs after OHCA in 2011-2018 and recorded in a prospective registry for the Paris region (France). We identified patient clusters by performing an unsupervised hierarchical cluster analysis (without mode of death among the variables) based on Utstein clinical and laboratory variables. For each cluster, we estimated the hazard ratio (HRs) for RPRS.

RESULTS

Of the 4445 included patients, 1468 (33%) were discharged alive from the ICU and 2977 (67%) died in the ICU. We identified four clusters: initial shockable rhythm with short low-flow time (cluster 1), initial non-shockable rhythm with usual absence of ST-segment elevation (cluster 2), initial non-shockable rhythm with long no-flow time (cluster 3), and long low-flow time with high epinephrine dose (cluster 4). RPRS was significantly associated with this last cluster (HR, 5.51; 95% confidence interval 4.51-6.74).

CONCLUSIONS

We identified patient clusters based on Utstein criteria, and one cluster was strongly associated with RPRS. This result may help to make decisions about using specific treatments after OHCA.

A novel cardiac arrest severity score for the early prediction of hypoxic-ischemic brain injury and in-hospital death

INTRODUCTION

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) outcomes are unsatisfactory despite postcardiac arrest care. Early prediction of prognoses might help stratify patients and provide tailored therapy. In this study, we derived and validated a novel scoring system to predict hypoxic-ischemic brain injury (HIBI) and in-hospital death (IHD).

METHODS

We retrospectively analyzed Korean Hypothermia Network prospective registry data collected from in Korea between 2015 and 2018. Patients without neuroprognostication data were excluded, and the remaining patients were randomly divided into derivation and validation cohorts. HIBI was defined when at least one prognostication predicted a poor outcome. IHD meant all deaths regardless of cause. In the derivation cohort, stepwise multivariate logistic regression was conducted for the HIBI and IHD scores, and model performance was assessed. We then classified the patients into four categories and analyzed the associations between the categories and cerebral performance categories (CPCs) at hospital discharge. Finally, we validated our models in an internal validation cohort.

RESULTS

Among 1373 patients, 240 were excluded, and 1133 were randomized into the derivation (n = 754) and validation cohorts (n = 379). In the derivation cohort, 7 and 8 predictors were selected for HIBI (0-8) and IHD scores (0-11), respectively, and the area under the curves (AUC) were 0.85 (95% CI 0.82-0.87) and 0.80 (95% CI 0.77-0.82), respectively. Applying optimum cutoff values of ≥6 points for HIBI and ≥7 points for IHD, the patients were classified as follows: HIBI (-)/IHD (-), Category 1 (n = 424); HIBI (-)/IHD (+), Category 2 (n = 100); HIBI (+)/IHD (-), Category 3 (n = 21); and HIBI (+)/IHD (+), Category 4 (n = 209). The CPCs at discharge were significantly different in each category (p < 0.001). In the validation cohort, the model showed moderate discrimination (AUC 0.83, 95% CI 0.79-0.87 for HIBI and AUC 0.77, 95% CI 0.72-0.81 for IHD) with good calibration. Each category of the validation cohort showed a significant difference in discharge outcomes (p < 0.001) and a similar trend to the derivation cohort.

CONCLUSIONS

We presented a novel approach for assessing illness severity after OHCA. Although external prospective studies are warranted, risk stratification for HIBI and IHD could help provide OHCA patients with appropriate treatment.

Prognostic Implication of Pre-Cannulation Cardiac Arrest in Patients Undergoing Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation for the Management of Cardiogenic Shock

BACKGROUND

The application of veno-arterial extracorporeal membrane oxygenation (VA-ECMO) in contemporary management of cardiogenic shock (CS) has dramatically increased. Despite increased utilization, few predictive models exist to estimate patient survival based on pre-ECMO characteristics. Furthermore, the prognostic implications of pre-ECMO cardiac arrest are not well defined.

METHODS

Utilizing an institutional VA-ECMO database, all consecutive patients undergoing VA-ECMO for the management of CS from January 1, 2014, to July 1, 2019, were identified. Survival to hospital discharge was analyzed based on cannulation indication in patients with and without pre-ECMO cardiac arrest. Patients who received extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation (eCPR) were analyzed separately.

RESULTS

Of the 214 patients identified, 110 did not suffer a cardiac arrest prior to cannulation (cohort 1), 57 patients had a cardiac arrest with sustained ROSC (cohort 2), and 47 were cannulated as a component of eCPR (cohort 3). Despite sustained ROSC (cohort 2), the presence of pre-ECMO cardiac arrest was associated with a significant reduction in survival to hospital discharge (22.8% vs. 55.5% in cohort 1; p < 0.001). Comparatively, survival to discharge was similar in patients undergoing eCPR (22.8% vs. 17.0%; p = 0.464). Finally, patients with a cardiac arrest were significantly more likely to have a neurological etiology death with VA-ECMO than patients supported prior to hemodynamic collapse (18.3% vs. 2.7%; p < 0.001). This result is seen in those with sustained ROSC (21.1% vs. 2.7%; p < 0.001) and those with eCPR (14.9% vs. 2.7%; p = 0.004).

CONCLUSION

In our cohort, pre-ECMO cardiac arrest carries a negative prognostic value across all indications and is associated with an increased prevalence of neurological-etiology death. This finding is true in patients with sustained ROSC as well as those resuscitated with eCPR. Cardiac arrest can inform survival probability with VA-ECMO as early implementation of VA-ECMO may mitigate adverse outcomes in patients at the highest risk of hemodynamic collapse.

Coronary Angiography in Patients With Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Without ST-Segment Elevation on Electrocardiograms: A Comprehensive Review

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is among the most common causes of death in the United States. Early coronary angiography (CAG) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) have been associated with improved long-term outcomes in patients with ST-segment elevation (STE) on prearrest or postarrest electrocardiograms. However, data on the utility of catheterization and PCI for improving outcomes after OHCA in patients without STE on electrocardiograms are heterogeneous, with variable results. Although older data have suggested that there is a benefit, recent randomized controlled trials have demonstrated that performing early CAG in patients with OHCA without STE on electrocardiograms may not improve outcomes. In recognition that neurologic devastation and multiorgan failure are common in these patients, physicians face the challenge of selecting appropriate patients for cardiac catheterization and PCI. This review aims to summarize the current data on this topic, with the goal to guide decision making regarding the timing and appropriateness of CAG in patients with OHCA without STE on electrocardiograms, utilizing an evidence-based approach to streamline the patient selection process.

Post-Cardiac Arrest: Mechanisms, Management, and Future Perspectives

Cardiac arrest is an important public health issue, with a survival rate of approximately 15 to 22%. A great proportion of these deaths occur after resuscitation due to post-cardiac arrest syndrome, which is characterized by the ischemia-reperfusion injury that affects the role body. Understanding physiopathology is mandatory to discover new treatment strategies and obtain better results. Besides improvements in cardiopulmonary resuscitation maneuvers, the great increase in survival rates observed in recent decades is due to new approaches to post-cardiac arrest care. In this review, we will discuss physiopathology, etiologies, and post-resuscitation care, emphasizing targeted temperature management, early coronary angiography, and rehabilitation.

Contemporary Management of Concomitant Cardiac Arrest and Cardiogenic Shock Complicating Myocardial Infarction

Cardiogenic shock (CS) and cardiac arrest (CA) are the most life-threatening complications of acute myocardial infarction. Although there is a significant overlap in the pathophysiology with approximately half the patients with CS experiencing a CA and approximately two-thirds of patients with CA developing CS, comprehensive guideline recommendations for management of CA + CS are lacking. This paper summarizes the current evidence on the incidence, pathophysiology, and short- and long-term outcomes of patients with acute myocardial infarction complicated by concomitant CA + CS. We discuss the hemodynamic factors and unique challenges that need to be accounted for while developing treatment strategies for these patients. A summary of expert-based step-by-step recommendations to the approach and treatment of these patients, both in the field before admission and in-hospital management, are presented.

Initial rhythm and survival in refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. Post-hoc analysis of the Prague OHCA randomized trial

BACKGROUND

The prognosis of refractory out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is generally poor. A recent Prague OHCA study has demonstrated that an invasive approach (including extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation, ECPR) is a feasible and effective treatment strategy in refractory OHCA. Here we present a post-hoc analysis of the role of initial rhythm on patient outcomes.

METHODS

The study enrolled patients who had a witnessed OHCA of presumed cardiac cause without early recovery of spontaneous circulation. The initial rhythm was classified as either a shockable or a non-shockable rhythm. The primary outcome was a composite of 180 day-survival with Cerebral Performance in Category 1 or 2.

RESULTS

256 (median age 58y, 17% females) patients were enrolled. The median (IQR) duration of resuscitation was 52 (33-68) minutes. 156 (61%) and 100 (39%) of patients manifested a shockable and non-shockable rhythm, respectively. The primary outcome was achieved in 63 (40%) patients with a shockable rhythm and in 5 (5%) patients with a non-shockable rhythm (p < 0.001). When patients were analyzed separately based on whether the treatment was invasive (n = 124) or standard (n = 132), the difference in the primary endpoint between shockable and non-shockable initial rhythms remained significant (35/72 (49%) vs 4/52 (8%) in the invasive arm and 28/84 (33%) vs 1/48 (2%) in the standard arm; p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

An initial shockable rhythm and treatment with an invasive approach is associated with a reasonable neurologically favorable survival for 180 days despite refractory OHCA. Non-shockable initial rhythms bear a poor prognosis in refractory OHCA even when ECPR is readily available.

Differential Effect of Targeted Temperature Management Between 32 °C and 36 °C Following Cardiac Arrest According to Initial Severity of Illness: Insights From Two International Data Sets

BACKGROUND

Recent guidelines have emphasized actively avoiding fever to improve outcomes in patients who are comatose following resuscitation from cardiac arrest (ie, out-of-hospital cardiac arrest). However, whether targeted temperature management between 32 °C and 36 °C (TTM32-36) can improve neurologic outcome in some patients remains debated.

RESEARCH QUESTION

Is there an association between the use of TTM32-36 and outcome according to severity assessed at ICU admission using a previously derived risk score?

STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS

Data prospectively collected in the Sudden Death Expertise Center (SDEC) registry (France) between May 2011 and December 2017 and in the Resuscitation Outcomes Consortium Continuous Chest Compressions (ROC-CCC) trial (United States and Canada) between June 2011 and May 2015 were used for this study. Severity at ICU admission was assessed through a modified version of the Cardiac Arrest Hospital Prognosis (mCAHP) score, divided into tertiles of severity. The study explored associations between TTM32-36 and favorable neurologic status at hospital discharge by using multiple logistic regression as well as in tertiles of severity for each data set.

RESULTS

A total of 2,723 patients were analyzed in the SDEC data set and 4,202 patients in the ROC-CCC data set. A favorable neurologic status at hospital discharge occurred in 728 (27%) patients in the French data set and in 1,239 (29%) patients in the North American data set. Among the French data set, TTM32-36 was independently associated with better neurologic outcome in the tertile of patients with low (adjusted OR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.15-2.30; P = .006) and high (adjusted OR, 1.94; 95% CI, 1.06-3.54; P = .030) severity according to mCAHP at ICU admission. Similar results were observed in the North American data set (adjusted ORs of 1.36 [95% CI, 1.05-1.75; P = .020] and 2.42 [95% CI, 1.38-4.24; P = .002], respectively). No association was observed between TTM32-36 and outcome in the moderate groups of the two data sets.

INTERPRETATION

TTM32-36 was significantly associated with a better outcome in patients with low and high severity at ICU admission assessed according to the mCAHP score. Further studies are needed to evaluate individualized temperature control following out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

Calcium use during cardiac arrest: A systematic review

Introduction

Calcium use during cardiac arrest has conflicting results in terms of efficacy. Therefore, we performed a systematic review evaluating the role of calcium administration in cardiac arrest.

Methods

We searched PubMed, Cochrane, and EMBASE for studies comparing calcium administration versus no calcium administration during cardiac arrest. The study was prospectively registered in PROSPERO (CRD42022316641) adhering to PRISMA guideline recommendations. The primary outcome was return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) or survival at one hour. The secondary outcomes included survival to discharge or at 30 days, and favorable neurologic outcomes at 30 and 90 days. We planned to perform a random-effects meta-analysis of low risk of bias studies. We evaluated risk of bias with RoB-2 and ROBINS-I.

Results

We identified 1,921 articles and included ten studies with 2509 patients. We were not able to perform a meta-analysis with low-risk of bias studies as only one study was found to be at low-risk of bias. However, for the primary outcome, the three RCTs included showed no benefit with calcium administration during cardiac arrest for ROSC. For the secondary outcomes, based on the most recent study and lower risk of bias, there was a neutral effect for survival to discharge or at 30 days and neurologic outcomes at 30 days. However, there was unfavorable neurologic outcomes at 90 days.

Conclusion

Based on our results, calcium administration in cardiac arrests shows no benefit and can cause harm. Further studies on this matter are likely not advisable.

Epinephrine versus norepinephrine in cardiac arrest patients with post-resuscitation shock

PURPOSE

Whether epinephrine or norepinephrine is preferable as the continuous intravenous vasopressor used to treat post-resuscitation shock is unclear. We assessed outcomes of patients with post-resuscitation shock after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest according to whether the continuous intravenous vasopressor used was epinephrine or norepinephrine.

METHODS

We conducted an observational multicenter study of consecutive patients managed in 2011-2018 for post-resuscitation shock. The primary outcome was all-cause hospital mortality, and secondary outcomes were cardiovascular hospital mortality and unfavorable neurological outcome (Cerebral Performance Category 3-5). A multivariate regression analysis and a propensity score analysis were performed, as well as several sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Of the 766 patients included in five hospitals, 285 (37%) received epinephrine and 481 (63%) norepinephrine. All-cause hospital mortality was significantly higher in the epinephrine group (OR 2.6; 95%CI 1.4-4.7; P = 0.002). Cardiovascular hospital mortality was also higher with epinephrine (aOR 5.5; 95%CI 3.0-10.3; P < 0.001), as was the proportion of patients with CPC of 3-5 at hospital discharge. Sensitivity analyses produced consistent results. The analysis involving adjustment on a propensity score to control for confounders showed similar findings (aOR 2.1; 95%CI 1.1-4.0; P = 0.02).

CONCLUSION

Among patients with post-resuscitation shock after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, use of epinephrine was associated with higher all-cause and cardiovascular-specific mortality, compared with norepinephrine infusion. Until additional data become available, intensivists may want to choose norepinephrine rather than epinephrine for the treatment of post-resuscitation shock after OHCA.

Predicting mortality in nonsurgical patients before cannulation for veno-arterial extracorporeal life support: Development and validation of the LACT-8 score

OBJECTIVES

We sought to derive and validate a model to predict inpatient mortality after veno-arterial extracorporeal life support (VA-ECLS) based on readily available, precannulation clinical data.

BACKGROUND

Refractory cardiogenic shock supported by VA-ECLS is associated with high morbidity and mortality.

METHODS

VA-ECLS cases at our institution from January 2014 through July 2019 were retrospectively reviewed. Exclusion criteria were cannulation: (1) at another institution; (2) for primary surgical indication; or (3) for extracorporeal cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Multivariable logistic regression compared those with and without inpatient mortality. Multiple imputation was performed and optimism-adjusted area under the curve (oAUC) values were computed.

RESULTS

VA-ECLS cases from August 2019 through November 2020 were identified as a validation cohort. In the derivation cohort (n = 135), the final model included Lactate (mmol/L), hemoglobin (g/dl; Anemia), Coma (Glasgow Coma Scale [GCS] < 8) and resusciTATEd cardiac arrest (LACTATE score; oAUC = 0.760). In the validation cohort (n = 30, LACTATE showed similar predictability [AUC = 0.710]). A simplified (LACT-8) score was derived by dichotomizing lactate (>8) and hemoglobin (<8) and summing together the number of components for each patient. LACT-8 performed similarly (derivation, oAUC = 0.724; validation, AUC = 0.725). In the derivation cohort, both scores outperformed SAVE (oAUC = 0.568) and SOFA (oAUC = 0.699) scores. A LACT-8 ≥ 3 had a specificity for mortality of 97.9% and 92.9%, in the derivation and validation cohorts, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

The LACT-8 score can predict inpatient mortality prior to before cannulation for VA-ECLS. LACT-8 can be implemented utilizing clinical data without the need for an online calculator.

Early Identification of Resuscitated Patients with a Significant Coronary Disease in Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest Survivors without ST-Segment Elevation

This study aimed to develop a machine learning (ML)-based model for identifying patients who had a significant coronary artery disease among out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) survivors without ST-segment elevation (STE). This multicenter observational study used data from the Korean Hypothermia Network prospective registry (KORHN-PRO) gathered between October 2015 and December 2018. We used information available before targeted temperature management (TTM) as predictor variables, and the primary outcome was a significant coronary artery lesion in coronary angiography (CAG). Among 1373 OHCA patients treated with TTM, 331 patients without STE who underwent CAG were enrolled. Among them, 127 patients (38.4%) had a significant coronary artery lesion. Four ML algorithms, namely regularized logistic regression (RLR), random forest classifier (RF), CatBoost classifier (CBC), and voting classifier (VC), were used with data collected before CAG. The VC model showed the highest accuracy for predicting significant lesions (area under the curve of 0.751). Eight variables (older age, male, initial shockable rhythm, shorter total collapse duration, higher glucose and creatinine, and lower pH and lactate) were significant to ML models. These results showed that ML models may be useful in developing early predictive tools for identifying high-risk patients with a significant stenosis in CAG.

Geographic variation and temporal trends in management and outcomes of cardiac arrest complicating acute myocardial infarction in the United States

BACKGROUND

Limited studies have evaluated regional disparities in the care of acute myocardial infarction (AMI) patients with cardiac arrest (CA). This study sought to evaluate 18-year national trends, resource utilization, and geographical variation in outcomes in AMI-CA admissions.

METHODS AND RESULTS

Using the National Inpatient Sample (2000-2017), we identified adults with AMI and concomitant CA admitted to the United States census regions of Northeast, Midwest, South, and West. Clinical outcomes of interest included in-hospital mortality, use of coronary angiography, percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI), mechanical circulatory support (MCS), hospitalization costs and length of stay. Of 9,680,257 admissions for AMI, 494,083 (5.1%) had concomitant CA. The West (6.0%) had higher prevalence compared to the Northeast (4.4%), Midwest (5.0%), and South (5.1%), p < 0.001. Admissions in the West had higher rates of STEMI, cardiogenic shock, multiorgan failure, mechanical ventilation, and hemodialysis. Northeast admissions had lower use of coronary angiography (52.0% vs. 67.9% vs. 60.9% vs. 61.5%), PCI (38.7% vs. 51.9% vs. 44.8% vs. 46.7%), and MCS (18.4% vs. 21.8% vs. 18.1%, vs. 20.0%) compared to the Midwest, West and South (all p < 0.001). Compared with the Northeast, adjusted in-hospital mortality was higher in the Midwest (odds ratio [OR] 1.06 [95% confidence interval {CI} 1.03-1.08]), South (OR 1.11 [95% CI 1.09-1.13]) and highest in the West (OR 1.16 [95% CI 1.13-1.18]), all p < 0.001. Temporal trends showed a decline in in-hospital mortality except in the West, which showed a slight increase.

CONCLUSIONS

There remain significant regional disparities in the management and outcomes of AMI-CA.

Brain Natriuretic Peptide as a Marker of Adverse Neurological Outcomes Among Survivors of Cardiac Arrest

BACKGROUND

Neurological prognosis after cardiac arrest remains ill-defined. Plasma brain natriuretic peptide (BNP) may relate to poor neurological prognosis in brain-injury patients, though it has not been well studied in survivors of cardiac arrest.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective review and examined the association of BNP with mortality and neurological outcomes at discharge in a cohort of cardiac arrest survivors enrolled from January 2012 to December 2016 at the Wake Forest Baptist Hospital, in North Carolina. Cerebral performance category (CPC) and modified Rankin scales were calculated from the chart based on neurological evaluation performed at the time of discharge. The cohort was subdivided into quartiles based on their BNP levels after which multivariable adjusted logistic regression models were applied to assess for an association between BNP and poor neurological outcomes as defined by a CPC of 3 to 4 and a modified Rankin scale of 4 to 5.

RESULTS

Of the 657 patients included in the study, 254 patients survived until discharge. Among these, poor neurological status was observed in 101 (39.8%) patients that had a CPC score of 3 to 4 and 97 patients (38.2%) that had a modified Rankin scale of 4 to 5. Mean BNP levels were higher in patients with poor neurological status compared to those with good neurological status at discharge (P = .03 for CPC 3-4 and P = .02 for modified Rankin score 4-5). BNP levels however, did not vary significantly between patients that survived and those that expired (P = .22). BNP did emerge as a significant discriminator between patients with severe neurological disability at discharge when compared to those without. The area under the curve for BNP predicting a modified Rankin score of 4 to 5 was 0.800 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.756-0.844, P < .001) and for predicting CPC 3 to 4 was 0.797 (95% CI 0.756-0.838, P < .001). BNP was able to significantly improve the net reclassification index and integrated discriminatory increment (P < .05). BNP was not associated with long-term all-cause mortality (P > .05).

CONCLUSIONS

In survivors of either inpatient or out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, increased BNP levels measured at the time of arrest predicted severe neurological disability at discharge. We did not observe an independent association between BNP levels and long-term all-cause mortality. BNP may be a useful biomarker for predicting adverse neurological outcomes in survivors of cardiac arrest.

Risk Stratification Among Survivors of Cardiac Arrest Considered for Coronary Angiography

BACKGROUND

The American College of Cardiology Interventional Council published consensus-based recommendations to help identify resuscitated cardiac arrest patients with unfavorable clinical features in whom invasive procedures are unlikely to improve survival.

OBJECTIVES

This study sought to identify how many unfavorable features are required before prognosis is significantly worsened and which features are most impactful in predicting prognosis.

METHODS

Using the INTCAR (International Cardiac Arrest Registry), the impact of each proposed "unfavorable feature" on survival to hospital discharge was individually analyzed. Logistic regression was performed to assess the association of such unfavorable features with poor outcomes.

RESULTS

Seven unfavorable features (of 10 total) were captured in 2,508 patients successfully resuscitated after cardiac arrest (ongoing cardiopulmonary resuscitation and noncardiac etiology were exclusion criteria in our registry). Chronic kidney disease was used in lieu of end-stage renal disease. In total, 39% survived to hospital discharge. The odds ratio (OR) of survival to hospital discharge for each unfavorable feature was as follows: age >85 years OR: 0.30 (95% CI: 0.15 to 0.61), time-to-ROSC >30 min OR: 0.30 (95% CI: 0.23 to 0.39), nonshockable rhythm OR: 0.39 (95% CI: 0.29 to 0.54), no bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation OR: 0.49 (95% CI: 0.38 to 0.64), lactate >7 mmol/l OR: 0.50 (95% CI: 0.40 to 0.63), unwitnessed arrest OR: 0.58 (95% CI: 0.44 to 0.78), pH <7.2 OR: 0.78 (95% CI: 0.63 to 0.98), and chronic kidney disease OR: 0.96 (95% CI: 0.70 to 1.33). The presence of any 3 or more unfavorable features predicted <40% survival. Presence of the 3 strongest risk factors (age >85 years, time-to-ROSC >30 min, and non-ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation) together or ≥6 unfavorable features predicted a ≤10% chance of survival to discharge.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients successfully resuscitated from cardiac arrest with 6 or more unfavorable features have a poor long-term prognosis. Delaying or even forgoing invasive procedures in such patients is reasonable.

Clinical Characteristics and In-Hospital Mortality of Cardiac Arrest Survivors in Brazil: A Large Retrospective Multicenter Cohort Study

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text.

Data on cardiac arrest survivors from developing countries are scarce. This study investigated clinical characteristics associated with in-hospital mortality in resuscitated patients following cardiac arrest in Brazil.

Plasma proenkephalin A 119-159 and dipeptidyl peptidase 3 on admission after cardiac arrest help predict long-term neurological outcome

BACKGROUND

A large proportion of adult survivors of cardiac arrest have a poor neurological outcome. Guidelines recommend multimodal neuro-prognostication no earlier than 72-96 h after cardiac arrest. There is great interest in earlier prognostic markers, including very early markers at admission. The novel blood biomarkers proenkephalin A 119-159 (penKid), bioactive adrenomedullin (bio-ADM) and circulating dipeptidyl peptidase 3 (cDPP3) have not been previously investigated for the early prognosis of cardiac arrest survivors.

METHODS

This multicentre observational study included adult survivors of cardiac arrest admitted to intensive care at four Swedish intensive care units (ICUs) during 2016. Blood samples were collected at ICU admission and batch analysed. The association between admission plasma penKid, bio-ADM and cDPP3 and poor long-term neurological outcome, according to the Cerebral Performance Category (CPC) scale, was assessed by binary logistic regression. Their prognostic performance was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC).

RESULTS

A total of 190 patients were included, of which 136 patients had suffered out-of-hospital and 54 patients in-hospital cardiac arrest. Poor long-term neurological outcome was associated with elevated admission plasma concentrations of penKid and cDPP3, but not with bio-ADM. The association for penKid, but not for cDPP3, remained after adjusting for clinical cardiac arrest variables with prognostic value (time to return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC), initial rhythm, admission Glasgow coma scale (GCS) motor score and absence of pupillary reflexes). The prognostic performance of above mentioned clinical cardiac arrest variables alone was very good with an AUC of 0.90 (95% confidence interval, CI, 0.86-0.95), but improved further with the addition of penKid resulting in an AUC of 0.93 (95% CI 0.89-0.97, p < 0.026). Plasma penKid and cDPP3 alone provided moderate long-term prognostic information with AUCs of 0.70 and 0.71, respectively.

CONCLUSION

After cardiac arrest, admission plasma levels of penKid and cDPP3, but not bio-ADM, predicted long-term neurological outcome. When added to clinical cardiac arrest variables, penKid further improved prognostic performance.

Post-resuscitation shock: recent advances in pathophysiology and treatment

A post-resuscitation shock occurs in 50–70% of patients who had a cardiac arrest. It is an early and transient complication of the post-resuscitation phase, which frequently leads to multiple-organ failure and high mortality. The pathophysiology of post-resuscitation shock is complex and results from the whole-body ischemia–reperfusion process provoked by the sequence of circulatory arrest, resuscitation manoeuvers and return of spontaneous circulation, combining a myocardial dysfunction and sepsis features, such as vasoplegia, hypovolemia and endothelial dysfunction. Similarly to septic shock, the hemodynamic management of post-resuscitation shock is based on an early and aggressive hemodynamic management, including fluid administration, vasopressors and/or inotropes. Norepinephrine should be considered as the first-line vasopressor in order to avoid arrhythmogenic effects of other catecholamines and dobutamine is the most established inotrope in this situation. Importantly, the optimal mean arterial pressure target during the post-resuscitation shock still remains unknown and may probably vary according to patients. Mechanical circulatory support by extracorporeal membrane oxygenation can be necessary in the most severe patients, when the neurological prognosis is assumed to be favourable. Other symptomatic treatments include protective lung ventilation with a target of normoxia and normocapnia and targeted temperature management by avoiding the lowest temperature targets. Early coronary angiogram and coronary reperfusion must be considered in ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI) patients with preserved neurological prognosis although the timing of coronary angiogram in non-STEMI patients is still a matter of debate. Further clinical research is needed in order to explore new therapeutic opportunities regarding inflammatory, hormonal and vascular dysfunction.

A New Risk Index Combining d-Dimer, Fibrinogen, HE4, and CA199 Differentiates Suspecting Endometrial Cancer From Patients With Abnormal Vaginal Bleeding or Discharge

PURPOSE

To establish an efficient new risk index for screening patients with endometrial cancer from patients with abnormal vaginal bleeding or discharge.

METHOD

A total of 254 patients with abnormal vaginal bleeding or discharge were included in this study. Several candidate markers, including HE4, CA125, CA199, CA153, AFP, CEA, d-dimer, and fibrinogen, were employed. A new risk index for endometrial cancer screening was established by binary logistic regression. The diagnostic value of the candidate markers and the new risk index were assessed by a receiver operating characteristic curve, sensitivity, and specificity.

RESULTS

The most valuable diagnostic indicator for endometrial cancer was HE4, followed by d-dimer and then fibrinogen (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve: HE4 = 0.794, d-dimer = 0.717, fibrinogen = 0.690). The new risk index was superior to a single application of markers and a widely used combination (HE4 and CA125). At the ideal cutoff level, the sensitivity and specificity were 91.34% and 70.08%, respectively. In addition, only patients without organic disease served as controls, which further increase its performance (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve = 0.932, sensitivity = 94.49%, and specificity = 77.42%).

CONCLUSIONS

The new risk index combining HE4, d-dimer, fibrinogen, and CA199 was the ideal combination for the screening of endometrial cancer. As a simple, rapid, nondestructive detection method, the new risk index is worth promotion in clinical practice, especially in primary medical institutions.

Etiology and Determinants of In-Hospital Survival in Patients Resuscitated After Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in an Urban Medical Center

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is a leading cause of mortality globally. The goals of this study were to describe common causes of OHCA in an urban US medical center, identify predictive factors for survival, and to assess whether neurological status upon return of spontaneous circulation might be predictive of outcomes: 124 consecutive patients aged 18 years and older with OHCA admitted at Advocate Illinois Masonic Medical Center were studied. All patients resuscitated in the field with return of spontaneous circulation then transferred to the emergency department were included. The Glasgow Coma Score (GCS) was evaluated immediately on hospital arrival. In the total group, 34% (42 of 124) were discharged alive. In patients with coronary artery disease (CAD), 51% (20 of 39) were discharged alive versus 26% (22 of 85) of non-CAD patients (p <0.01). Initial GCS ≥ 9 was highly predictive of survival: 94% (34 of 36) of patients with GCS ≥ 9 survived versus 9% (8 of 88) with GCS ≤ 8 (p <0.0001). Defibrillation in the field was predictive of survival (chi-square = 7.81, p = 0.005). In the CAD group, all 16 patients with GCS ≥ 9 on presentation to the Emergency Department survived whereas all 13 with GCS ≤ 5 died (both p <0.0001). In the non-CAD group, 18 of 20 patients with GCS ≥ 9 survived, whereas only 2 of 52 with GCS ≤ 5 survived (both p <0.0001). Multivariate analysis by logistic regression showed that the strongest predictor of survival in the non-CAD subgroup was GCS (OR 0.27, CI 0.19 to 0.55, p <0.001). In conclusion, the etiology of the OHCA, immediate neurologic status, and defibrillation in the field (suggesting presenting arrhythmia) were predictive of survival. Immediate neurological recovery (GCS ≥ 9) regardless of etiology was a strong predictor of survival to discharge. Additional predictive factors depend on the etiology of the OHCA event. These data suggest that these straightforward factors can be helpful in predicting outcome in patients resuscitated after OHCA.

Clinical Predictive Models of Sudden Cardiac Arrest: A Survey of the Current Science and Analysis of Model Performances

Background

More than 500 000 sudden cardiac arrests (SCAs) occur annually in the United States. Clinical predictive models (CPMs) may be helpful tools to differentiate between patients who are likely to survive or have good neurologic recovery and those who are not. However, which CPMs are most reliable for discriminating between outcomes in SCA is not known.

Methods and Results

We performed a systematic review of the literature using the Tufts PACE (Predictive Analytics and Comparative Effectiveness) CPM Registry through February 1, 2020, and identified 81 unique CPMs of SCA and 62 subsequent external validation studies. Initial cardiac rhythm, age, and duration of cardiopulmonary resuscitation were the 3 most commonly used predictive variables. Only 33 of the 81 novel SCA CPMs (41%) were validated at least once. Of 81 novel SCA CPMs, 56 (69%) and 61 of 62 validation studies (98%) reported discrimination, with median c‐statistics of 0.84 and 0.81, respectively. Calibration was reported in only 29 of 62 validation studies (41.9%). For those novel models that both reported discrimination and were validated (26 models), the median percentage change in discrimination was −1.6%. We identified 3 CPMs that had undergone at least 3 external validation studies: the out‐of‐hospital cardiac arrest score (9 validations; median c‐statistic, 0.79), the cardiac arrest hospital prognosis score (6 validations; median c‐statistic, 0.83), and the good outcome following attempted resuscitation score (6 validations; median c‐statistic, 0.76).

Conclusions

Although only a small number of SCA CPMs have been rigorously validated, the ones that have been demonstrate good discrimination.

Comprehensive Cardiac Care After Cardiac Arrest

Cardiac arrest (CA) results in multiorgan ischemia until return of spontaneous circulation and often is followed by a low-flow shock state. Upon restoration of circulation and organ perfusion, resuscitative teams must act quickly to achieve clinical stability while simultaneously addressing the underlying etiology of the initial event. Optimal cardiovascular care demands focused management of the post-cardiac arrest syndrome and associated shock. Acute coronary syndrome should be considered and managed in a timely manner, because early revascularization improves patient outcomes and may suppress refractory arrhythmias. This review outlines the diagnostic and therapeutic considerations that define optimal cardiovascular care after CA.

Copeptin as a marker of outcome after cardiac arrest: a sub-study of the TTM trial

Background

Arginine vasopressin has complex actions in critically ill patients, involving vasoregulatory status, plasma volume, and cortisol levels. Copeptin, a surrogate marker for arginine vasopressin, has shown promising prognostic features in small observational studies and is used clinically for early rule out of acute coronary syndrome. The objective of this study was to explore the association between early measurements of copeptin, circulatory status, and short-term survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

Methods

Serial blood samples were collected at 24, 48, and 72 h as part of the target temperature management at 33 °C versus 36 °C after cardiac arrest trial, an international multicenter randomized trial where unconscious survivors after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest were allocated to an intervention of 33 or 36 °C for 24 h. Primary outcome was 30-day survival with secondary endpoints circulatory cause of death and cardiovascular deterioration composite; in addition, we examined the correlation with extended the cardiovascular sequential organ failure assessment (eCvSOFA) score.

Results

Six hundred ninety patients were included in the analyses, of whom 203 (30.3%) developed cardiovascular deterioration within 24 h, and 273 (39.6%) died within 30 days. Copeptin measured at 24 h was found to be independently associated with 30-day survival, hazard ratio 1.17 [1.06–1.28], p = 0.001; circulatory cause of death, odds ratio 1.03 [1.01–1.04], p = 0.001; and cardiovascular deterioration composite, odds ratio of 1.05 [1.02–1.08], p < 0.001. Copeptin at 24 h was correlated with eCvSOFA score with rho 0.19 [0.12–0.27], p < 0.001.

Conclusion

Copeptin is an independent marker of severity of the post cardiac arrest syndrome, partially related to circulatory failure.

Trial registration

Clinical Trials, NCT01020916. Registered November 26, 2009.

Cardiac arrest: prediction models in the early phase of hospitalization

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

There is a need for an early assessment of outcome in patients with return of spontaneous circulation after cardiac arrest. During the last decade, several models were developed in order to identify predictive factors that may facilitate prognostication and stratification of outcome.

RECENT FINDINGS

In addition to prognostication tools that are used in intensive care, at least five scores were recently developed using large datasets, based on simple and immediately available parameters, such as circumstances of arrest and early in-hospital indicators. Regarding neurological outcome, predictive performance of these models is good and even excellent for some of them. These scores perform very well for identifying patients at high-risk of unfavorable outcome. The most important limitation of these scores remains the lack of replication in different communities. In addition, these scores were not developed for individual decision- making, but they could instead be useful for the description and comparison of different cohorts, and also to design trials targeting specific categories of patients regarding outcome. Finally, the recent development of big data allows extension of research in epidemiology of cardiac arrest, including the identification of new prognostic factors and the improvement of prediction according to the profile of populations.

SUMMARY

In addition to the development of artificial intelligence, the prediction approach based on adequate scores will further increase the knowledge in prognostication after cardiac arrest. This strategy may help to develop treatment strategies according to the predicted severity of the outcome.

Predictors of In-Hospital Mortality after Recovered Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest in Patients with Proven Significant Coronary Artery Disease: A Retrospective Study

INTRODUCTION

Recovered Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest (rOHCA) population is heterogenous. Few studies focused on outcomes in the rOHCA subgroup with proven significant coronary artery disease (SigCAD). We aimed to characterize this subgroup and study the determinants of in-hospital mortality.

METHODS

Retrospective study of consecutive rOHCA patients submitted to coronary angiography. Only patients with SigCAD were included.

RESULTS

60 patients were studied, 85% were male, mean age was 62.6 ± 12.1 years. In-hospital mortality rate was 43.3%. Patients with diabetes and history of stroke were less likely to survive. Significant univariate predictors of in-hospital mortality were further analysed separately, according to whether they were present at hospital admission or developed during hospital evolution. At hospital admission, initial non-shockable rhythm, low-flow time>12min, pH<7.25mmol/L and lactates >4.75mmol/L were the most relevant predictors and therefore included in a score tested by Kaplan-Meyer. Patients who had 0/4 criteria had 100% chance of survival till hospital discharge, 1/4 had 77%, 2/4 had 50%, 3/4 had 25%. Patients with all 4 criteria had 0% survival. During in-hospital evolution, a pH<7.35 at 24h, lactates>2mmol/L at 24h, anoxic brain injury and persistent hemodynamic instability proved significant. Patients who had 0/4 of these in-hospital criteria had 100% chance of survival till hospital discharge, 1/4 had 94%, 2/4 had 47%, 3/4 had 25%. Patients with all 4 criteria had 0% survival. Contrarily, CAD severity and ventricular dysfunction didn't significantly correlate to the outcome.

CONCLUSION

Classic prehospital variables retain their value in predicting mortality in the specific group of OHCA with SigCAD. In-hospital evolution variables proved to add value in mortality prediction. Combining these simple variables in risk scores might help refining prognostic prediction in these patients's subset.

Contemporary Management of Out-of-hospital Cardiac Arrest in the Cardiac Catheterisation Laboratory: Current Status and Future Directions

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is an important cause of mortality and morbidity in developed countries and remains an important public health burden. A primary cardiac aetiology is common in OHCA patients, and so patients are increasingly brought to specialist cardiac centres for consideration of coronary angiography, percutaneous coronary intervention and mechanical circulatory support. This article focuses on the management of OHCA in the cardiac catheterisation laboratory. In particular, it addresses conveyance of the OHCA patient direct to a specialist centre, the role of targeted temperature management, pharmacological considerations, provision of early coronary angiography and mechanical circulatory support.

The cardiac arrest survival score: A predictive algorithm for in-hospital mortality after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

BACKGROUND

Out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is associated with high mortality. Current methods for predicting mortality post-arrest require data unavailable at the time of initial medical contact. We created and validated a risk prediction model for patients experiencing OHCA who achieved return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) which relies only on objective information routinely obtained at first medical contact.

METHODS

We performed a retrospective evaluation of 14,892 OHCA patients in a large metropolitan cardiac arrest registry, of which 3952 patients had usable data. This population was divided into a derivation cohort (n = 2,635) and a verification cohort (n = 1,317) in a 2:1 ratio. Backward stepwise logistic regression was used to identify baseline factors independently associated with death after sustained ROSC in the derivation cohort. The cardiac arrest survival score (CASS) was created from the model and its association with in-hospital mortality was examined in both the derivation and verification cohorts.

RESULTS

Baseline characteristics of the derivation and verification cohorts were not different. The final CASS model included age >75 years (odds ratio [OR] = 1.61, confidence interval [CI][1.30-1.99], p < 0.001), unwitnessed arrest (OR = 1.95, CI[1.58-2.40], p < 0.001), home arrest (OR = 1.28, CI[1.07-1.53], p = 0.008), absence of bystander CPR (OR = 1.35, CI[1.12-1.64], p = 0.003), and non-shockable initial rhythm (OR = 3.81, CI[3.19-4.56], p < 0.001). The area under the curve for the model derivation and model verification cohorts were 0.7172 and 0.7081, respectively.

CONCLUSION

CASS accurately predicts mortality in OHCA patients. The model uses only binary, objective clinical data routinely obtained at first medical contact. Early risk stratification may allow identification of more patients in whom timely and aggressive invasive management may improve outcomes.

Age-associated outcomes after survived out-of-hospital cardiac arrest and subsequent target temperature management

BACKGROUND

The registry of the German Society of Intensive Care and Emergency Medicine was founded to analyze outcome of modern post-resuscitation care.

METHODS

A total of 902 patients were analyzed in this retrospective, multicenter, and population-based observational trial on individuals suffering from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest. All patients had return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and received TTM after admitted to an intensive care unit. Outcome was focused on age and analyzed by creating 4 subgroups (<65, 65-74, 75-84, ≥85 years). Twenty-eight day and 180-day survival and a favorable neurological outcome according to the Cerebral Performance Category scale were evaluated as clinical endpoints.

RESULTS

At 28-day and 180-day follow-up, 44.8% and 53.4% of all patients had died, respectively. The evaluation of survival rate by age category revealed a higher mortality, but not an unfavorable neurological prognosis with increasing age. In multiple stepwise regressions, age, time to ROSC, bystander resuscitation, and cardiac cause of cardiac arrest were associated with increased chance of 180-day survival and, in addition, bystander resuscitation, time of hypoxia, and a defibrillation performed by emergency medical service were associated with a favorable neurological outcome at 180-day follow-up.

CONCLUSION

Increasing age was associated with a higher mortality, but not with an unfavorable neurological outcome. The majority of survivors had a favorable neurologic outcome 6 months after cardiac arrest.