Global drivers of the conservation-invasion paradox

The conservation-invasion paradox (CIP) refers to a long-term phenomenon wherein species threatened in their native range can sustain viable populations when introduced to other regions. Understanding the drivers of CIP is helpful for conserving threatened species and managing invasive species, which is unfortunately still lacking. We compiled a global data set of 1071 introduction events, including 960 CIP events (successful establishment of threatened species outside its native range) and 111 non-CIP events (unsuccessful establishment of threatened species outside its native range after introduction), involving 174 terrestrial vertebrates. We then tested the relative importance of various predictors at the location, event, and species levels with generalized linear mixed models and model averaging. Successful CIP events occurred across taxonomic groups and biogeographic realms, especially for the mammal group in the Palearctic and Australia. Locations of successful CIP events had fewer native threat factors, especially less climate warming in invaded regions. The probability of a successful CIP event was highest when species introduction efforts were great and there were more local congeners and fewer natural enemies. These results can inform threatened species ex situ conservation and non-native invasive species mitigation.

Global freshwater fish invasion linked to the presence of closely related species

In the Anthropocene, non-native freshwater fish introductions and translocations have occurred extensively worldwide. However, their global distribution patterns and the factors influencing their establishment remain poorly understood. We analyze a comprehensive database of 14953 freshwater fish species across 3119 river basins and identify global hotspots for exotic and translocated non-native fishes. We show that both types of non-native fishes are more likely to occur when closely related to native fishes. This finding is consistent across measures of phylogenetic relatedness, biogeographical realms, and highly invaded countries, even after accounting for the influence of native diversity. This contradicts Darwin's naturalization hypothesis, suggesting that the presence of close relatives more often signifies suitable habitats than intensified competition, predicting the establishment of non-native fish species. Our study provides a comprehensive assessment of global non-native freshwater fish patterns and their phylogenetic correlates, laying the groundwork for understanding and predicting future fish invasions in freshwater ecosystems.

Pet distribution modelling: Untangling the invasive potential of Trachemys dorbigni (Emydidae) in the Americas

Human activities have been changing the global biogeographic patterns by the introductions of invasive species. For reptiles, the invasion rate increase of non-native species is remarkably related to the pet trade, especially for freshwater turtles. Here we estimated the invasive potential of the South American turtle Trachemys dorbigni in the Americas using a combination of climatic and human activity variables. We built species distribution models based on data from the native and invasive ranges, using the ensemble model from five different algorithms (GAM, MAXENT, BRT, RF and GBM). We compared the two models' performance and predictions, one calibrated with only climatic variables (climate-driven), and the second also included a descriptive variable of human activity (climate plus human-driven). Suitable areas for T. dorbigni covered occurrence areas of its congeners and highly diversified ecoregions, such as the eastern USA, the islands of Central America, and the south eastern and eastern Brazilian coast. Our results indicate that human activities allow T. dorbigni to establish populations outside of its original climatic niche. Including human activity variables proved fundamental to refining the results to identify more susceptible areas to invasion and to allow the efficient targeting of prevention measures. Finally, we suggested a set of actions to prevent T. dorbigni becoming a highly impacting species in the areas identified as more prone to its invasion.

Trait-Environment Relationships Reveal the Success of Alien Plants Invasiveness in an Urbanized Landscape

Urban areas are being affected by rapidly increasing human-made pressures that can strongly homogenize biodiversity, reduce habitat heterogeneity, and facilitate the invasion of alien species. One of the key concerns in invaded urban areas is comparing the trait–environment relationships between alien and native species, to determine the underlying causes of invasiveness. In the current study, we used a trait–environment dataset of 130 native plants and 33 alien plants, recorded in 100 plots covering 50 urban areas and 50 non-urban ones in an urbanization gradient in the arid mountainous Saint-Katherine protected area in Egypt. We measured eleven morphological plant traits for each plant species and ten environmental variables in each plot, including soil resources and human-made pressures, to construct trait–environment associations using a fourth-corner analysis. In addition, we measured the mean functional and phylogenetic distances between the two species groups along an urbanization gradient. Our results revealed strongly significant relationships of alien species traits with human-made pressures and soil resources in urban areas. However, in non-urban areas, alien species traits showed weak and non-significant associations with the environment. Simultaneously, native plants showed consistency in their trait–environment relationships in urban and non-urban areas. In line with these results, the functional and phylogenetic distances declined between the aliens and natives in urban areas, indicating biotic homogenization with increasing urbanization, and increased in non-urban areas, indicating greater divergence between the two species groups. Thereby, this study provided evidence that urbanization can reveal the plasticity of alien species and can also be the leading cause of homogenization in an arid urban area. Future urban studies should investigate the potential causes of taxonomic, genetic, and functional homogenization in species composition in formerly more diverse urbanized areas.

Contrasting alien effects on native diversity along biotic and abiotic gradients in an arid protected area

Alien impact on native diversity could be a function of both the relatedness of alien species to native community and resources availability. Here, we investigated whether alien plants expand or decrease the functional and phylogenetic space of native plant communities, and how this is affected by alien relatedness to natives and by resources availability. We used a trait-environment dataset of 33 alien and 130 native plants in 83 pairs of invaded and non-invaded plots, covering a gradient of soil resources (organic matter-nitrogen) in Saint-Katherine-Protectorate, Egypt. First, we compared the changes in native composition and calculated alien relatedness to natives within each pair of plots. Second, we tested the effects of resources availability and relatedness on the magnitude of alien impact (defined as a change in native diversity). We found that native composition was phylogenetically less but functionally more diverse in invaded plots compared to non-invaded ones. Moreover, in resources-rich plots, dissimilar aliens to natives significantly increased native diversity, while in resource-limited ones, similar aliens to natives declined native diversity. These results suggest that the assessment of alien impacts in arid-regions is significantly linked to resources-availability and relatedness to natives. Hence, future studies should test the generality of our findings in different environments.

MAcroecological Framework for Invasive Aliens (MAFIA): disentangling large-scale context dependence in biological invasions

Macroecology is the study of patterns, and the processes that determine those patterns, in the distribution and abundance of organisms at large scales, whether they be spatial (from hundreds of kilometres to global), temporal (from decades to centuries), and organismal (numbers of species or higher taxa). In the context of invasion ecology, macroecological studies include, for example, analyses of the richness, diversity, distribution, and abundance of alien species in regional floras and faunas, spatio-temporal dynamics of alien species across regions, and cross-taxonomic analyses of species traits among comparable native and alien species pools. However, macroecological studies aiming to explain and predict plant and animal naturalisations and invasions, and the resulting impacts, have, to date, rarely considered the joint effects of species traits, environment, and socioeconomic characteristics. To address this, we present the MAcroecological Framework for Invasive Aliens (MAFIA). The MAFIA explains the invasion phenomenon using three interacting classes of factors – alien species traits, location characteristics, and factors related to introduction events – and explicitly maps these interactions onto the invasion sequence from transport to naturalisation to invasion. The framework therefore helps both to identify how anthropogenic effects interact with species traits and environmental characteristics to determine observed patterns in alien distribution, abundance, and richness; and to clarify why neglecting anthropogenic effects can generate spurious conclusions. Event-related factors include propagule pressure, colonisation pressure, and residence time that are important for mediating the outcome of invasion processes. However, because of context dependence, they can bias analyses, for example those that seek to elucidate the role of alien species traits. In the same vein, failure to recognise and explicitly incorporate interactions among the main factors impedes our understanding of which macroecological invasion patterns are shaped by the environment, and of the importance of interactions between the species and their environment. The MAFIA is based largely on insights from studies of plants and birds, but we believe it can be applied to all taxa, and hope that it will stimulate comparative research on other groups and environments. By making the biases in macroecological analyses of biological invasions explicit, the MAFIA offers an opportunity to guide assessments of the context dependence of invasions at broad geographical scales.

A taxonomically and geographically constrained information base limits non-native reptile and amphibian risk assessment: a systematic review

For many taxa, new records of non-native introductions globally occur at a near exponential rate. We undertook a systematic review of peer-reviewed publications on non-native herpetofauna, to assess the information base available for assessing risks of future invasions, resulting in 836 relevant papers. The taxonomic and geographic scope of the literature was also compared to a published database of all known invasions globally. We found 1,116 species of herpetofauna, 95% of which were present in fewer than 12 studies. Nearly all literature on the invasion ecology of herpetofauna has appeared since 2000, with a strong focus on frogs (58%), particularly cane toads (Rhinella marina) and their impacts in Australia. While fewer papers have been published on turtles and snakes, proportionately more species from both these groups have been studied than for frogs. Within each herpetofaunal group, there are a handful of well-studied species: R. marina, Lithobates catesbeianus, Xenopus laevis, Trachemys scripta, Boiga irregularis and Anolis sagrei. Most research (416 papers; 50%) has addressed impacts, with far fewer studies on aspects like trade (2%). Besides Australia (213 studies), most countries have little location-specific peer-reviewed literature on non-native herpetofauna (on average 1.1 papers per established species). Other exceptions were Guam, the UK, China, California and France, but even their publication coverage across established species was not even. New methods for assessing and prioritizing invasive species such as the Environmental Impact Classification for Alien Taxa provide useful frameworks for risk assessment, but require robust species-level studies. Global initiatives, similar to the Global Amphibian Assessment, using the species and taxonomic groups identified here, are needed to derive the level of information across broad geographic ranges required to apply these frameworks. Expansive studies on model species can be used to indicate productive research foci for understudied taxa.

Preadaptation and Naturalization of Nonnative Species: Darwin's Two Fundamental Insights into Species Invasion

Predicting which nonnative species become invasive is critical for their successful management, and Charles Darwin provided predictions based on species' relatedness. However, Darwin provided two opposing predictions about the relatedness of introduced nonnatives to indigenous species. First, environmental fit is the dominant factor determining invader success; thus, we should expect that invasive species are closely related to local native residents. Alternatively, if competition is important, we should expect successful invaders are distantly related to the native residents. These opposing expectations are referred to as Darwin's naturalization conundrum. The results of studies that examine nonnative species relatedness to natives are largely inconsistent. This inconsistency arises from the fact that studies occur at different spatial and temporal scales, and at different stages of invasion, and so implicitly examine different mechanisms. Further, while species have evolved ecological differences, the mode and tempo of evolution can affect species' differences, complicating the predictions from simple hypotheses. We outline unanswered questions and provide guidelines for collecting the data required to test competing hypotheses.

Different effects of invader-native phylogenetic relatedness on invasion success and impact: a meta-analysis of Darwin's naturalization hypothesis

Darwin's naturalization hypothesis (DNH), which predicts that alien species more distantly related to native communities are more likely to naturalize, has received much recent attention. The mixed findings from empirical studies that have tested DNH, however, seem to defy generalizations. Using meta-analysis to synthesize results of existing studies, we show that the predictive power of DNH depends on both the invasion stage and the spatial scale of the studies. Alien species more closely related to natives tended to be less successful at the local scale, supporting DNH; invasion success, however, was unaffected by alien-native relatedness at the regional scale. On the other hand, alien species with stronger impacts on native communities tended to be more closely related to natives at the local scale, but less closely related to natives at the regional scale. These patterns are generally consistent across different ecosystems, taxa and investigation methods. Our results revealed the different effects of invader-native relatedness on invader success and impact, suggesting the operation of different mechanisms across invasion stages and spatial scales.

Understanding the biological invasion risk posed by the global wildlife trade: propagule pressure drives the introduction and establishment of Nearctic turtles

Biological invasions are a key component of human-induced global change. The continuing increase in global wildlife trade has raised concerns about the parallel increase in the number of new invasive species. However, the factors that link the wildlife trade to the biological invasion process are still poorly understood. Moreover, there are analytical challenges in researching the role of global wildlife trade in biological invasions, particularly issues related to the under-reporting of introduced and established populations in areas with reduced sampling effort. In this work, we use high-quality data on the international trade in Nearctic turtles (1999-2009) coupled with a statistical modelling framework, which explicitly accounts for detection, to investigate the factors that influence the introduction (release, or escape into the wild) of globally traded Nearctic turtles and the establishment success (self-sustaining exotic populations) of slider turtles (Trachemys scripta), the most frequently traded turtle species. We found that the introduction of a species was influenced by the total number of turtles exported to a jurisdiction and the age at maturity of the species, while the establishment success of slider turtles was best associated with the propagule number (number of release events), and the number of native turtles in the jurisdiction of introduction. These results indicate both a direct and indirect association between the wildlife trade and the introduction of turtles and establishment success of slider turtles, respectively. Our results highlight the existence of gaps in the number of globally recorded introduction events and established populations of slider turtles, although the expected bias is low. We emphasize the importance of researching independently the factors that affect the different stages of the invasion pathway. Critically, we observe that the number of traded individuals might not always be an adequate proxy for propagule pressure and establishment success.

Congener diversity, topographic heterogeneity and human-assisted dispersal predict spread rates of alien herpetofauna at a global scale

Understanding the factors that determine rates of range expansion is not only crucial for developing risk assessment schemes and management strategies for invasive species, but also provides important insight into the ability of species to disperse in response to climate change. However, there is little knowledge on why some invasions spread faster than others at large spatiotemporal scales. Here, we examine the effects of human activities, species traits and characteristics of the invaded range on spread rates using a global sample of alien reptile and amphibian introductions. We show that spread rates vary remarkably among invaded locations within a species, and differ across biogeographical realms. Spread rates are positively related to the richness of native congeneric species and human-assisted dispersal in the invaded range but are negatively correlated with topographic heterogeneity. Our findings highlight the importance of environmental characteristics and human-assisted dispersal in developing robust frameworks for predicting species' range shifts.

Revisiting Darwin's conundrum reveals a twist on the relationship between phylogenetic distance and invasibility

A key goal of invasion biology is to identify the factors that favor species invasions. One potential indicator of invasiveness is the phylogenetic distance between a nonnative species and species in the recipient community. However, predicting invasiveness using phylogenetic information relies on an untested assumption: that both biotic resistance and facilitation weaken with increasing phylogenetic distance. We test the validity of this key assumption using a mathematical model in which a novel species is introduced into communities with varying ecological and phylogenetic relationships. Contrary to what is generally assumed, we find that biotic resistance and facilitation can either weaken or intensify with phylogenetic distance, depending on the mode of interspecific interactions (phenotype matching or phenotype differences) and the resulting evolutionary trajectory of the recipient community. Thus, we demonstrate that considering the mechanisms that drive phenotypic divergence between native and nonnative species can provide critical insight into the relationship between phylogenetic distance and invasibility.

A test of Darwin's naturalization hypothesis in the thistle tribe shows that close relatives make bad neighbors

Invasive species have great ecological and economic impacts and are difficult to control once established, making the ability to understand and predict invasive behavior highly desirable. Preemptive measures to prevent potential invasive species from reaching new habitats are the most economically and environmentally efficient form of management. Darwin's naturalization hypothesis predicts that invaders less related to native flora are more likely to be successful than those that are closely related to natives. Here we test this hypothesis, using the weed-rich thistle tribe, Cardueae, in the California Floristic Province, a biodiversity hotspot, as our study system. An exhaustive molecular phylogenetic approach was used, generating and examining more than 100,000 likely phylogenies of the tribe based on nuclear and chloroplast DNA markers, representing the most in-depth reconstruction of the clade to date. Branch lengths separating invasive and noninvasive introduced taxa from native California taxa were used to represent phylogenetic distances between these groups and were compared at multiple biogeographical scales to ascertain whether invasive thistles are more or less closely related to natives than noninvasive introduced thistles are. Patterns within this highly supported clade show that not only are introduced thistles more closely related to natives more likely to be invasive, but these invasive species are also evolutionarily closer to native flora than by chance. This suggests that preadaptive traits are important in determining an invader's success. Such rigorous molecular phylogenetic analyses may prove a fruitful means for furthering our understanding of biological invasions and developing predictive frameworks for screening potential invasive taxa.