Refusal of intensive care unit admission due to a full unit: impact on mortality

Acute Kidney Injury in Latin America

Acute kidney injury (AKI) is a major global health issue with significant morbidity and mortality, particularly in low- and middle-income regions like Latin America. AKI prevalence varies across Latin America, with higher rates in rural and underserved areas. Key risk factors include socioeconomic disparities, comorbid conditions such as diabetes and hypertension, and environmental hazards. Infections, especially tropical diseases, and exposure to nephrotoxins, including herbal remedies, are common causes of AKI. Management of AKI faces significant hurdles because of limited access to diagnostic tools, variability in clinical practices, and a shortage of trained health care professionals. The availability of dialysis and renal replacement therapies is often constrained by economic and infrastructural limitations. Public health initiatives focusing on prevention, screening, and early detection are critical to mitigate the impact of AKI. Research in AKI across Latin America is hampered by data gaps and limited funding. Multicenter collaborations and the development of region-specific guidelines are essential to improving outcomes. Addressing these challenges will help reduce the burden of AKI and improve health care systems across the region. This review examines the unique epidemiology, risk factors, and health care challenges surrounding AKI in the region.

The Role of Intermediate Care in Supporting Critically Ill Patients and Critical Care Infrastructure

Intermediate care (IC) is used for patients who do not require the human and technological support of the intensive care unit (ICU) yet require more care and monitoring than can be provided on general wards. Though prevalent in many countries, there is marked variability in models of organization and staffing, as well as monitoring and interventions provided. In this article, the authors will discuss the historical background of IC, review the impact of IC on ICU and IC patient outcomes, and highlight where future studies can shed light on how to optimize IC organization and outcomes.

Inadequate intensive care physician supply in France: a point-prevalence prospective study

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the importance of intensive care units (ICUs) and their organization in healthcare systems. However, ICU capacity and availability are ongoing concerns beyond the pandemic, particularly due to an aging population and increasing complexity of care. This study aimed to assess the current and future shortage of ICU physicians in France, ten years after a previous evaluation. A national e-survey was conducted among French ICUs in January 2022 to collect data on ICU characteristics, medical staffing, individual physician characteristics, and education and training capacities.

RESULTS

Among 290 ICUs contacted, 242 responded (response rate: 83%), representing 4943 ICU beds. The survey revealed an overall of 300 full time equivalent (FTE) ICU physician vacancies in the country. Nearly two-thirds of the participating ICUs reported at least one physician vacancy and 35% relied on traveling physicians to cover shifts. The ICUs most affected by physician vacancies were the ICUs of non-university affiliated public hospitals. The retirements expected in the next five years represented around 10% of the workforce. The median number of physicians per ICU was 7.0, corresponding to a ratio of 0.36 physician (FTE) per ICU bed. In addition, 27% of ICUs were at risk of critical dysfunction or closure due to vacancies and impending retirements.

CONCLUSION

The findings highlight the urgent need to address the shortage of ICU physicians in France. Compared to a similar study conducted in 2012, the inadequacy between ICU physician supply and demand has increased, resulting in a higher number of vacancies. Our study suggests that, among others, increasing the number of ICM residents trained each year could be a crucial step in addressing this issue. Failure to take appropriate measures may lead to further closures of ICUs and increased risks to patients in this healthcare system.

Pro-Con Debate: Universal Versus Selective Continuous Monitoring of Postoperative Patients

In this Pro-Con commentary article, we discuss use of continuous physiologic monitoring for clinical deterioration, specifically respiratory depression in the postoperative population. The Pro position advocates for 24/7 continuous surveillance monitoring of all patients starting in the postanesthesia care unit until discharge from the hospital. The strongest arguments for universal monitoring relate to inadequate assessment and algorithms for patient risk. We argue that the need for hospitalization in and of itself is a sufficient predictor of an individual's risk for unexpected respiratory deterioration. In addition, general care units carry the added risk that even the most severe respiratory events will not be recognized in a timely fashion, largely due to higher patient to nurse staffing ratios and limited intermittent vital signs assessments (e.g., every 4 hours). Continuous monitoring configured properly using a "surveillance model" can adequately detect patients' respiratory deterioration while minimizing alarm fatigue and the costs of the surveillance systems. The Con position advocates for a mixed approach of time-limited continuous pulse oximetry monitoring for all patients receiving opioids, with additional remote pulse oximetry monitoring for patients identified as having a high risk of respiratory depression. Alarm fatigue, clinical resource limitations, and cost are the strongest arguments for selective monitoring, which is a more targeted approach. The proponents of the con position acknowledge that postoperative respiratory monitoring is certainly indicated for all patients, but not all patients need the same level of monitoring. The analysis and discussion of each point of view describes who, when, where, and how continuous monitoring should be implemented. Consideration of various system-level factors are addressed, including clinical resource availability, alarm design, system costs, patient and staff acceptance, risk-assessment algorithms, and respiratory event detection. Literature is reviewed, findings are described, and recommendations for design of monitoring systems and implementation of monitoring are described for the pro and con positions.

Critically ill patients with high predicted mortality: Incidence and outcome

OBJECTIVE

As calculated by the severity scores, an unknown number of patients are admitted to the Intensive Care Unit (ICU) with a very high risk of death. Clinical studies have poorly addressed this population, and their prognosis is largely unknown.

DESIGN

Post hoc analysis of a multicenter, cohort, longitudinal, observational, retrospective study (CIMbA).

SETTING

Sixteen Portuguese multipurpose ICUs.

PATIENTS

Patients with a Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) predicted hospital mortality above 80% on admission to the ICU (high-risk group); A comparison with the remaining patients was obtained.

INTERVENTIONS

None.

MAIN VARIABLES OF INTEREST

Hospital, 30 days, 1 year mortality.

RESULTS

We identified 4546 patients (59.9% male), 12.2% of the whole population. Their SAPS II predicted hospital mortality was 89.0±5.8%, whilst the observed mortality was lower, 61.0%. This group had higher mortality, both during the first 30 days (aHR 3.52 [95% CI 3.34-3.71]) and from day 31 to day 365 after ICU admission (aHR 1.14 [95%CI 1.04-1.26]), respectively. However, their hospital standardized mortality ratio was similar to the other patients (0.69 vs. 0.69, P=.92). At one year of follow-up, 30% of patients in the high-risk group were alive.

CONCLUSIONS

Roughly 12% of patients admitted to the ICU for more than 24h had a SAPS II score predicted mortality above 80%. Their hospital standardized mortality was similar to the less severe population and 30% were alive after one year of follow-up.

Racial & ethnic disparities in geographic access to critical care in the United States: A geographic information systems analysis

OBJECTIVE

It is important to identify gaps in access and reduce health outcome disparities, understanding access to intensive care unit (ICU) beds, especially by race and ethnicity, is crucial. Our objective was to evaluate the race and ethnicity-specific 60-minute drive time accessibility of ICU beds in the United States (US).

DESIGN

We conducted a cross-sectional study using road network analysis to determine the number of ICU beds within a 60-minute drive time, and calculated adult intensive care bed ratios per 100,000 adults. We evaluated the US population at the Census block group level and stratified our analysis by race and ethnicity and by urbanicity. We classified block groups into four access levels: no access (0 adult intensive care beds/100,000 adults), below average access (>0-19.5), average access (19.6-32.0), and above average access (>32.0). We calculated the proportion of adults in each racial and ethnic group within the four access levels.

SETTING

All 50 US states and the District of Columbia.

PARTICIPANTS

Adults ≥15 years old.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Adult intensive care beds/100,000 adults and percentage of adults national and state) within four access levels by race and ethnicity.

RESULTS

High variability existed in access to ICU beds by state, and substantial disparities by race and ethnicity. 1.8% (n = 5,038,797) of Americans had no access to an ICU bed, and 26.8% (n = 73,095,752) had below average access, within a 60-minute drive time. Racial and ethnic analysis showed high rates of disparities (no access/below average access): American Indians/Alaskan Native 12.6%/28.5%, Asian 0.7%/23.1%, Black or African American 0.6%/16.5%, Hispanic or Latino 1.4%/23.0%, Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander 5.2%/35.0%, and White 2.1%/29.0%. A higher percentage of rural block groups had no (5.2%) or below average access (41.2%), compared to urban block groups (0.2% no access, 26.8% below average access).

CONCLUSION

ICU bed availability varied substantially by geography, race and ethnicity, and by urbanicity, creating significant disparities in critical care access. The variability in ICU bed access may indicate inequalities in healthcare access overall by limiting resources for the management of critically ill patients.

Creation and Expansion of a Mixed Patient Intermediate Care Unit to Improve ICU Capacity

OBJECTIVES

ICU capacity strain is associated with worsened outcomes. Intermediate care units (IMCs) comprise one potential option to offload ICUs while providing appropriate care for intermediate acuity patients, but their impact on ICU capacity has not been thoroughly characterized. The aims of this study are to describe the creation of a medical-surgical IMC and assess how the IMC affected ICU capacity.

DESIGN

Descriptive report with retrospective cohort review.

SETTING

Six hundred seventy-three-bed tertiary care academic medical center with 77 ICU beds.

PATIENTS

Adult inpatients who were admitted to the IMC.

INTERVENTIONS

An interdisciplinary working group created an IMC which was located on a general ward. The IMC was staffed by hospitalists and surgeons and supported by critical care consultants. The initial maximum census was three, but this number increased to six in response to heightened critical care demand. IMC admission criteria also expanded to include advanced noninvasive respiratory support defined as patients requiring high-flow nasal cannula, noninvasive positive pressure ventilation, or mechanical ventilation in patients with tracheostomies.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

The primary outcome entailed the number of ICU bed-days saved. Adverse outcomes, including ICU transfer, intubation, and death, were also recorded. From August 2021 to July 2022, 230 patients were admitted to the IMC. The most frequent IMC indications were respiratory support for medical patients and post-operative care for surgical patients. A total of 1023 ICU bed-days were made available. Most patients were discharged from the IMC to a general ward, while 8% of all patients required transfer to an ICU within 48 hours of admission. Intubation (2%) and death (1%) occurred infrequently within 48 hours of admission. Respiratory support was the indication associated with the most ICU transfers.

CONCLUSIONS

Despite a modest daily census, an IMC generated substantial ICU bed capacity during a time of peak critical care demand.

[ICU admission for cancer patients with respiratory failure: An ethical dilemma]

In medicine, each decision is the result of a trade-off between medical scientific data, the rights of individuals (protection of persons, information, consent), individual desires, collective values and norms, and the economic constraints that guide our society. Whether or not to admit a cancer patient to an intensive care unit is very often an ethical dilemma. It is necessary to distinguish patients who would benefit from admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) from those for whom it would be futile. In this review, we will discuss the appropriateness of ICU admission and the concept of unreasonable admission, along with the different levels of intensity of ICU care and the alternatives to intensive care. We will then consider how and when to initiate reflection leading to a reasonable decision for the patient.

Characteristics and Outcomes of Patients Requiring Repeat Intensive Care Unit Consults

Objective

To better understand the mortality and notable characteristics of patients initially denied intensive care unit (ICU) admission that are later admitted on reconsultation.

Patients and Methods

We collected data regarding all adult inpatients (n=3725) who received one or more ICU consults at an academic tertiary care hospital medical center between January 1, 2018 and October 1, 2021. We compared patients who were initially denied ICU admission and later admitted on reconsultation (C2A1, n=144) with those who were admitted after the first consultation (C1A1, n=2286) and those denied at first consult and never later admitted (C1A0, n=1295).

Results

Ten percent of patients initially rejected by the ICU were later admitted on reconsultation. There was no significant difference in the adjusted hospital death odds ratios between C1A1 and C2A1 (0.67; 95% CI 0.43-1.01; P=.11). Assessing subgroups of the C2A1 population, we found that 8.2% (n=100) of full code patients were later admitted to the ICU on reconsultation vs 23.2% (n=40) of do not attempt resuscitation patients (P<.001); 7.6% (n=77) of patients initially consulted from the emergency department were later admitted to the ICU on reconsultation vs 15.1% (n=52) of patients initially consulted from an inpatient setting (P<.001).

Conclusion

In this cohort, we demonstrated that patients admitted on repeat ICU consultation have no significant difference in mortality compared with equivalent patients admitted after the first consultation. Understanding and further exploring the consequences of these ICU reconsultations is vital to developing optimal critical care triaging practices.

Causes and Outcomes of Intensive Care Admission Refusals: A Retrospective Audit from a Rural Teaching Hospital in Eastern Cape, South Africa

(1) Background: Patients who deserve intensive care unit (ICU) admission may be denied due to a lack of resources, complicating ICU triage decisions for intensive care unit (ICU) clinicians. Among the resources that may be unavailable are trained personnel and monitored beds. In South Africa, the distribution of healthcare resources is reflected in the availability of ICU beds, with more ICU beds available in more affluent areas. Data on ICU refusal rates, reasons for refusal, patient characteristics, and outcomes are scarce in resource-constrained rural settings. Hence, this study sheds light on the ICU refusal rates, reasons for refusal, characteristics, and outcomes of refused patients at NMAH. (2) Methods: This was a three-month retrospective cross-sectional record review of refused and admitted patients from January to March 2022. COVID-19 patients and those younger than 13 years old were excluded. Refusal rates, reasons for refusal, characteristics, and outcomes of refused patients were analysed quantitatively using SPSS VS 20 software. Reasons for refusal were categorised as "too well", "too sick", and "suitable for admission but no resources". (3) Results: A total of 135 patients were discussed for ICU admission at NMAH during the study period; 73 (54.07%) were refused admission, and 62 (45.92%) were admitted. Being considered too sick to benefit from ICU was the most common reason for refusal (53.23%). Too well and no resources contributed 27.42% and 19.35%, respectively. Patients with poor functional status, comorbidities, medical diagnoses, and those referred from the ward or accident and emergency unit rather than the operating room were more likely to be refused ICU admission. Refused patients had a seven-day mortality rate of 47%. (4) Conclusions and recommendations: The study found an unmet need for critical care services at our institution, as well as a need for tools to help clinicians make objective triage decisions for critically ill patients. Therefore, the study suggests a need to improve the quality of services provided outside of the ICU, particularly for patients who were refused ICU admission, to improve their outcomes.

The positive impact of COVID-19 on critical care: from unprecedented challenges to transformative changes, from the perspective of young intensivists

Over the past 2 years, SARS-CoV-2 infection has resulted in numerous hospitalizations and deaths worldwide. As young intensivists, we have been at the forefront of the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic and it has been an intense learning experience affecting all aspects of our specialty. Critical care was put forward as a priority and managed to adapt to the influx of patients and the growing demand for beds, financial and material resources, thereby highlighting its flexibility and central role in the healthcare system. Intensivists assumed an essential and unprecedented role in public life, which was important when claiming for indispensable material and human investments. Physicians and researchers around the world worked hand-in-hand to advance research and better manage this disease by integrating a rapidly growing body of evidence into guidelines. Our daily ethical practices and communication with families were challenged by the massive influx of patients and restricted visitation policies, forcing us to improve our collaboration with other specialties and innovate with new communication channels. However, the picture was not all bright, and some of these achievements are already fading over time despite the ongoing pandemic and hospital crisis. In addition, the pandemic has demonstrated the need to improve the working conditions and well-being of critical care workers to cope with the current shortage of human resources. Despite the gloomy atmosphere, we remain optimistic. In this ten-key points review, we outline our vision on how to capitalize on the lasting impact of the pandemic to face future challenges and foster transformative changes of critical care for the better.

Intensive Care Unit Occupancy in Japan, 2015-2018: A Nationwide Inpatient Database Study

BACKGROUND

Detailed data on intensive care unit (ICU) occupancy in Japan are lacking. Using a nationwide inpatient database in Japan, we aimed to assess ICU bed occupancy to guide critical care utilization planning.

METHODS

We identified all ICU patients admitted from January 1, 2015 to December 31, 2018 to ICU-equipped hospitals participating in the Japanese Diagnosis Procedure Combination inpatient database. We assessed the trends in daily occupancy by counting the total number of occupied ICU beds on a given day divided by the total number of licensed ICU beds in the participating hospitals. We also assessed ICU occupancy for patients with mechanical ventilation, patients with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and patients without life-supportive therapies.

RESULTS

Over the 4 study years, 1,379,618 ICU patients were admitted to 495 hospitals equipped with 5,341 ICU beds, accounting for 75% of all ICU beds in Japan. Mean ICU occupancy on any given day was 60%, with a range of 45.0% to 72.5%. Mean ICU occupancy did not change over the 4 years. Mean ICU occupancy was about 9% higher on weekdays than on weekends and about 5% higher in the coldest season than in the warmest season. For patients with mechanical ventilation, patients with extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, and patients without life-supportive therapies, mean ICU occupancy was 24%, 0.5%, and 30%, respectively.

CONCLUSION

Only one-fourth of ICU beds were occupied by mechanically ventilated patients, suggesting that the critical care system in Japan has substantial surge capacity under normal temporal variation to care for critically ill patients.

Postoperative ICU admission following major elective surgery: A nationwide inpatient database study

BACKGROUND

Whether the routine use of the ICU after major elective surgery improves postoperative outcomes is not well established.

OBJECTIVES

To describe the association between use of postoperative ICU admission and clinical outcomes for patients undergoing major elective surgery.

DESIGN

Observational study.

SETTING

Nationwide inpatient database in Japan, July 2010 to March 2018.

PATIENTS

Patients undergoing one of 15 major elective orthopaedic, gastrointestinal, neurological, thoracic or cardiovascular surgical procedures.

INTERVENTION

ICU admission on the day of surgery. ICU was defined as a separate unit providing critical care services with around-the-clock physician staffing and nursing, the equipment necessary for critical care and a nurse-to-patient ratio at least one to two.

MAIN OUTCOME

In-hospital mortality. Patient-level and hospital-level analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Overall, 2 011 265 patients from 1524 hospitals were assessed. The cohort size ranged from 38 547 patients in 467 hospitals for surgical clipping for cerebral aneurysms to 308 952 patients in 599 hospitals for spinal fixation, laminectomy or laminoplasty. In the patient-level analyses, there were no significant mortality differences among patients undergoing the 12 major noncardiovascular surgical procedures, whereas postoperative ICU admission was associated with trends towards lower in-hospital mortality among patients undergoing coronary artery bypass grafting, risk difference -1.0% (95% CI -1.8 to -0.1) open aortic aneurysm repair, risk difference -0.6% (95% CI -1.3 to 0.1), and heart valve replacement, risk difference -0.7% (95% CI - 1.6 to 0.1). In the hospital-level analyses, similar to the results of the patient-level analyses, a higher proportion of postoperative ICU admission at hospital level was associated with trends toward lower in-hospital mortality for patients undergoing the three cardiovascular surgical procedures.

CONCLUSION

This nationwide observational study showed that postoperative ICU admission was associated with improved survival outcomes among patients undergoing three types of cardiac surgery but not among patients undergoing low-risk elective surgery.

Intensive care unit capacity and mortality in older adults: a three nations retrospective observational cohort study

Background

Intensive care unit (ICU) admissions among older adults are expected to increase, while the benefit remains uncertain. The availability of ICU beds varies between hospitals and between countries and is an important factor in the decision to admit older adults in the ICU. We aimed to assess if a non-restrictive approach to ICU older adults admission is associated with a corresponding change in survival.

Methods

Retrospective cohort study that included patients ≥ 80 years who were admitted to each of the three participating hospitals in Australia, Israel, and the United States (USA), between the years 2006–2015, each with distinct ICU capacities and admission criteria. The primary outcomes were in-hospital mortality and all-cause mortality at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months following index hospitalization.

Results

The cohort included 62,866 patients with a mean age of 85.9 ± 4.6 years and 58.8% were women. The ICU admission rates were 22.5%, 2.6% and 2.3% in USA, Australia, and Israel, respectively. We constructed a model for ICU admissions based on the USA cohort (highest availability of ICU beds) and then calculated the expected probabilities for the Israeli and Australian cohorts. For the patients in the highest quintile of the admission model, actual ICU admission rates were 67.6% in USA, 22.1% in Australia and 6.0% in Israel. Of these, in-hospital death rates were 52.3% in Israel, 29.8% in Australia, and 22.1% in USA. Two years after hospital discharge, the survival rates in the USA and Australia were 53%, while in Israel 48%.

Conclusion

ICU admission of adults ≥ 80 years is associated with increased in-hospital survival compared to ward admission, but survival rates 2 years later are similar.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13613-022-00994-x.

Dependence of COVID-19 Policies on End-of-Year Holiday Contacts in Mexico City Metropolitan Area: A Modeling Study

Background. Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) has the largest number of COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) cases in Mexico and is at risk of exceeding its hospital capacity in early 2021. Methods. We used the Stanford-CIDE Coronavirus Simulation Model (SC-COSMO), a dynamic transmission model of COVID-19, to evaluate the effect of policies considering increased contacts during the end-of-year holidays, intensification of physical distancing, and school reopening on projected confirmed cases and deaths, hospital demand, and hospital capacity exceedance. Model parameters were derived from primary data, literature, and calibrated. Results. Following high levels of holiday contacts even with no in-person schooling, MCMA will have 0.9 million (95% prediction interval 0.3-1.6) additional COVID-19 cases between December 7, 2020, and March 7, 2021, and hospitalizations will peak at 26,000 (8,300-54,500) on January 25, 2021, with a 97% chance of exceeding COVID-19-specific capacity (9,667 beds). If MCMA were to control holiday contacts, the city could reopen in-person schools, provided they increase physical distancing with 0.5 million (0.2-0.9) additional cases and hospitalizations peaking at 12,000 (3,700-27,000) on January 19, 2021 (60% chance of exceedance). Conclusion. MCMA must increase COVID-19 hospital capacity under all scenarios considered. MCMA's ability to reopen schools in early 2021 depends on sustaining physical distancing and on controlling contacts during the end-of-year holiday.

Intensive Care Unit prioritization: The impact of ICU bed availability on mortality in critically ill patients who requested ICU admission in court in a Brazilian cohort

PURPOSE

To assess hospital mortality in patients who requested ICU admission in court due to the scarcity of ICU beds in the Brazilian public health system and the consequences of these judicial litigations.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

Retrospective cohort study that included adult patients from the public health system of the Federal District, Brazil, who claimed ICU admission in court from January 2017 to December 2019.

RESULTS

Of the 1752 patients, 1031 were admitted to ICU (58.8%). Hospital mortality was 61.1% (1071/1752). Of the requests, 768 (43.8%) were made by patients with priority levels III or IV, resulting in the ICU admission of 33.9% of these patients. Denial of ICU admission (p < 0.001) increased mortality. ICU admission reduced hospital mortality in patients classified as priority level I (p < 0.001), priority level II (p < 0.001), and priority level III (p < 0.001), but not as priority level IV (p = 0.619).

CONCLUSION

A large proportion of patients was denied ICU admission and it was associated with an increased mortality. A considerable portion of the ICU-admitted patients were classified as priority level III and IV, impairing the ICU admission of patients with priority level I which are the ones with the greatest benefit from it.

The Japanese Clinical Practice Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock 2020 (J-SSCG 2020)

The Japanese Clinical Practice Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock 2020 (J-SSCG 2020), a Japanese-specific set of clinical practice guidelines for sepsis and septic shock created as revised from J-SSCG 2016 jointly by the Japanese Society of Intensive Care Medicine and the Japanese Association for Acute Medicine, was first released in September 2020 and published in February 2021. An English-language version of these guidelines was created based on the contents of the original Japanese-language version. The purpose of this guideline is to assist medical staff in making appropriate decisions to improve the prognosis of patients undergoing treatment for sepsis and septic shock. We aimed to provide high-quality guidelines that are easy to use and understand for specialists, general clinicians, and multidisciplinary medical professionals. J-SSCG 2016 took up new subjects that were not present in SSCG 2016 (e.g., ICU-acquired weakness [ICU-AW], post-intensive care syndrome [PICS], and body temperature management). The J-SSCG 2020 covered a total of 22 areas with four additional new areas (patient- and family-centered care, sepsis treatment system, neuro-intensive treatment, and stress ulcers). A total of 118 important clinical issues (clinical questions, CQs) were extracted regardless of the presence or absence of evidence. These CQs also include those that have been given particular focus within Japan. This is a large-scale guideline covering multiple fields; thus, in addition to the 25 committee members, we had the participation and support of a total of 226 members who are professionals (physicians, nurses, physiotherapists, clinical engineers, and pharmacists) and medical workers with a history of sepsis or critical illness. The GRADE method was adopted for making recommendations, and the modified Delphi method was used to determine recommendations by voting from all committee members.As a result, 79 GRADE-based recommendations, 5 Good Practice Statements (GPS), 18 expert consensuses, 27 answers to background questions (BQs), and summaries of definitions and diagnosis of sepsis were created as responses to 118 CQs. We also incorporated visual information for each CQ according to the time course of treatment, and we will also distribute this as an app. The J-SSCG 2020 is expected to be widely used as a useful bedside guideline in the field of sepsis treatment both in Japan and overseas involving multiple disciplines.

Outcome of cancer patients considered for intensive care unit admission in two university hospitals in the Netherlands: the danger of delayed ICU admissions and off-hour triage decisions

Background

Very few studies assessed the association between Intensive Care Unit (ICU) triage decisions and mortality. The aim of this study was to assess whether an association could be found between 30-day mortality, and ICU admission consultation conditions and triage decisions.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective cohort study in two large referral university hospitals in the Netherlands. We identified all adult cancer patients for whom ICU admission was requested from 2016 to 2019. Via a multivariable logistic regression analysis, we assessed the association between 30-day mortality, and ICU admission consultation conditions and triage decisions.

Results

Of the 780 cancer patients for whom ICU admission was requested, 332 patients (42.6%) were considered ‘too well to benefit’ from ICU admission, 382 (49%) patients were immediately admitted to the ICU and 66 patients (8.4%) were considered ‘too sick to benefit’ according to the consulting intensivist(s). The 30-day mortality in these subgroups was 30.1%, 36.9% and 81.8%, respectively. In the patient group considered ‘too well to benefit’, 258 patients were never admitted to the ICU and 74 patients (9.5% of the overall study population, 22.3% of the patients ‘too well to benefit’) were admitted to the ICU after a second ICU admission request (delayed ICU admission). Thirty-day mortality in these groups was 25.6% and 45.9%. After adjustment for confounders, ICU consultations during off-hours (OR 1.61, 95% CI 1.09–2.38, p-value 0.02) and delayed ICU admission (OR 1.83, 95% CI 1.00–3.33, p-value 0.048 compared to “ICU admission”) were independently associated with 30-day mortality.

Conclusion

The ICU denial rate in our study was high (51%). Sixty percent of the ICU triage decisions in cancer patients were made during off-hours, and 22.3% of the patients initially considered “too well to benefit” from ICU admission were subsequently admitted to the ICU. Both decisions during off-hours and a delayed ICU admission were associated with an increased risk of death at 30 days. Our study suggests that in cancer patients, ICU triage decisions should be discussed during on-hours, and ICU admission policy should be broadened, with a lower admission threshold for critically ill cancer patients.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13613-021-00898-2.

An emergency department-based intensive care unit is associated with decreased hospital length of stay for upper gastrointestinal bleeding

INTRODUCTION

Upper gastrointestinal bleeding (UGIB) is associated with substantial morbidity, mortality, and intensive care unit (ICU) utilization. Initial risk stratification and disposition from the Emergency Department (ED) can prove challenging due to limited data points during a short period of observation. An ED-based ICU (ED-ICU) may allow more rapid delivery of ICU-level care, though its impact on patients with UGIB is unknown.

METHODS

A retrospective observational study was conducted at a tertiary U.S. academic medical center. An ED-ICU (the Emergency Critical Care Center [EC3]) opened in February 2015. Patients presenting to the ED with UGIB undergoing esophagogastroduodenoscopy within 72 h were identified and analyzed. The Pre- and Post-EC3 cohorts included patients from 9/2/2012-2/15/2015 and 2/16/2015-6/30/2019.

RESULTS

We identified 3788 ED visits; 1033 Pre-EC3 and 2755 Post-EC3. Of Pre-EC3 visits, 200 were critically ill and admitted to ICU [Cohort A]. Of Post-EC3 visits, 682 were critically ill and managed in EC3 [Cohort B], whereas 61 were critically ill and admitted directly to ICU without care in EC3 [Cohort C]. The mean interval from ED presentation to ICU level care was shorter in Cohort B than A or C (3.8 vs 6.3 vs 7.7 h, p < 0.05). More patients in Cohort B received ICU level care within six hours of ED arrival (85.3 vs 52.0 vs 57.4%, p < 0.05). Mean hospital length of stay (LOS) was shorter in Cohort B than A or C (6.2 vs 7.3 vs 10.0 days, p < 0.05). In the Post-EC3 cohort, fewer patients were admitted to an ICU (9.3 vs 19.4%, p < 0.001). The rate of floor admission with transfer to ICU within 24 h was similar. No differences in absolute or risk-adjusted mortality were observed.

CONCLUSION

For critically ill ED patients with UGIB, implementation of an ED-ICU was associated with reductions in rate of ICU admission and hospital LOS, with no differences in safety outcomes.

Increased time from physiological derangement to critical care admission associates with mortality

Background

Rapid response systems aim to achieve a timely response to the deteriorating patient; however, the existing literature varies on whether timing of escalation directly affects patient outcomes. Prior studies have been limited to using ‘decision to admit’ to critical care, or arrival in the emergency department as ‘time zero’, rather than the onset of physiological deterioration. The aim of this study is to establish if duration of abnormal physiology prior to critical care admission [‘Score to Door’ (STD) time] impacts on patient outcomes.

Methods

A retrospective cross-sectional analysis of data from pooled electronic medical records from a multi-site academic hospital was performed. All unplanned adult admissions to critical care from the ward with persistent physiological derangement [defined as sustained high National Early Warning Score (NEWS) > / = 7 that did not decrease below 5] were eligible for inclusion. The primary outcome was critical care mortality. Secondary outcomes were length of critical care admission and hospital mortality. The impact of STD time was adjusted for patient factors (demographics, sickness severity, frailty, and co-morbidity) and logistic factors (timing of high NEWS, and out of hours status) utilising logistic and linear regression models.

Results

Six hundred and thirty-two patients were included over the 4-year study period, 16.3% died in critical care. STD time demonstrated a small but significant association with critical care mortality [adjusted odds ratio of 1.02 (95% CI 1.0–1.04, p = 0.01)]. It was also associated with hospital mortality (adjusted OR 1.02, 95% CI 1.0–1.04, p = 0.026), and critical care length of stay. Each hour from onset of physiological derangement increased critical care length of stay by 1.2%. STD time was influenced by the initial NEWS, but not by logistic factors such as out-of-hours status, or pre-existing patient factors such as co-morbidity or frailty.

Conclusion

In a strictly defined population of high NEWS patients, the time from onset of sustained physiological derangement to critical care admission was associated with increased critical care and hospital mortality. If corroborated in further studies, this cohort definition could be utilised alongside the ‘Score to Door’ concept as a clinical indicator within rapid response systems.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13054-021-03650-1.

Effect of an emergency department intensive care unit on medical intensive unit admissions and care: A retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

Evaluate the impact of an emergency critical care center (EC3) on the admissions of critically ill patients to a critical care medicine unit (CCMU) and their outcomes.

METHODS

This was a retrospective before/after cohort study in a tertiary university teaching hospital. To improve the care of critically ill patients in the emergency department (ED), a 9-bed EC3 was opened in the ED in February 2015. All critically ill patients in the emergency department must receive intensive support in EC3 before being considered for admission to the CCMU for further treatment. Patients from the emergency department account for a significant proportion of the patients admitted to the CCMU. The proportions of patients admitted to the CCMU from the ED were analyzed 1 year before and 1 year after the opening of the EC3. We also compared the admission data, demographic data, APACHE III scores and patient outcomes among patients admitted from ED to the CCMU in the year before and the year after the opening of the EC3.

RESULT

The establishment of the EC3 was associated with a decreased proportion of patients admitted to the CCMU from the ED (OR 0.73 95% CI 0.63-0.84, p < 0.01), a decrease in the proportion of patients with sepsis admitted from the ED (OR 0.68, 95% CI, 0.54-0.87, p < 0.01) and a decrease in the proportion of patients with gastrointestinal bleeding admitted from the ED (OR 0.49, 95% CI 0.28-0.84, p < 0.05). Following the establishment of the EC3, patients admitted to the CCMU had a higher APACHE III score in 2015 (74.85 ± 30.42 vs 72.39 ± 29.64, p = 0.015). Fewer low-risk patients were admitted to the CCMU for monitoring following the opening of the EC3 (112 [6.8%] vs. 181 [9.3%], p < 0.01). Propensity score matching analysis showed that the opening of the EC3 was associated with improved 60-day survival (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.70-0.99, p = 0.046).

CONCLUSION

Following the opening of the EC3, the proportion of CCMU admissions from the ED decreased. The EC3 may be most effective at reducing the admission of lower-acuity patients with GI bleeding and possibly sepsis. The EC3 may be associated with improved survival in ED patients.

The risk of postoperative deterioration of non-cardiac surgery patients with ICU referral status who are admitted to the regular ward: a retrospective observational cohort study

Background

Higher-risk surgical patients may not be admitted to the intensive care unit due to stable immediate post-operative status on review. The outcomes of this cohort are not well described. Our aim was to examine the subsequent inpatient course of intensive care unit -referred but not admitted surgical patients.

Methods

All patients aged ≥18 years who were referred but not admitted for post-operative management in a tertiary metropolitan intensive care unit following non-cardiac surgery between 1/7/2017 and 30/6/2018 were eligible for inclusion in this retrospective observational cohort study. Primary outcome was Medical Emergency Team activation. Secondary outcomes included unplanned intensive care unit admission; length of stay; and 30-day mortality. Risk of serious complications and predicted length of stay were calculated using the National Surgical Quality Improvement Program scoring tool.

Results

Fifteen of 60 patients (25%) had a MET-call following surgery, eight (13%) patients required unplanned intensive care unit admission, with median (IQR) time to Medical Emergency Team call 9 (6–13) hours. No patients died within 30-days. There was no significant difference between mean National Surgical Quality Improvement Program predicted and actual length of stay; after adjustment, National Surgical Quality Improvement Program predicted risk of serious complications was associated with unplanned intensive care unit admission (OR [95% CI] = 1.08 [1.00–1.16], p = 0.04), although not Medical Emergency Team calls.

Conclusions

Post-operative deterioration occurs frequently, and early, in a cohort of high-risk surgical patients initially assessed as being safe for ward care. Changes to current triage models for post-operative intensive care unit admission may reduce the impact of complications in this high-risk group.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s13037-021-00283-9.

Testing for Endogeneity of Covid-19 Patient Assignments*

A considerable number of individuals infected by COVID-19 died in self-isolation. This paper uses a graphical inference method to examine if patients were endogenously assigned to self-isolation during the early phase of COVID-19 epidemic in Ontario. The endogeneity of patient assignment is evaluated from a dependence measure revealing relationships between patients’ characteristics and their location at the time of death. We test for absence of assignment endogeneity in daily samples and study the dynamic of endogeneity. This methodology is applied to patients’ characteristics, such as age, gender, location of the diagnosing health unit, presence of symptoms, and underlying health conditions.

The Japanese Clinical Practice Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock 2020 (J-SSCG 2020)

The Japanese Clinical Practice Guidelines for Management of Sepsis and Septic Shock 2020 (J-SSCG 2020), a Japanese-specific set of clinical practice guidelines for sepsis and septic shock created as revised from J-SSCG 2016 jointly by the Japanese Society of Intensive Care Medicine and the Japanese Association for Acute Medicine, was first released in September 2020 and published in February 2021. An English-language version of these guidelines was created based on the contents of the original Japanese-language version. The purpose of this guideline is to assist medical staff in making appropriate decisions to improve the prognosis of patients undergoing treatment for sepsis and septic shock. We aimed to provide high-quality guidelines that are easy to use and understand for specialists, general clinicians, and multidisciplinary medical professionals. J-SSCG 2016 took up new subjects that were not present in SSCG 2016 (e.g., ICU-acquired weakness [ICU-AW], post-intensive care syndrome [PICS], and body temperature management). The J-SSCG 2020 covered a total of 22 areas with four additional new areas (patient- and family-centered care, sepsis treatment system, neuro-intensive treatment, and stress ulcers). A total of 118 important clinical issues (clinical questions, CQs) were extracted regardless of the presence or absence of evidence. These CQs also include those that have been given particular focus within Japan. This is a large-scale guideline covering multiple fields; thus, in addition to the 25 committee members, we had the participation and support of a total of 226 members who are professionals (physicians, nurses, physiotherapists, clinical engineers, and pharmacists) and medical workers with a history of sepsis or critical illness. The GRADE method was adopted for making recommendations, and the modified Delphi method was used to determine recommendations by voting from all committee members. As a result, 79 GRADE-based recommendations, 5 Good Practice Statements (GPS), 18 expert consensuses, 27 answers to background questions (BQs), and summaries of definitions and diagnosis of sepsis were created as responses to 118 CQs. We also incorporated visual information for each CQ according to the time course of treatment, and we will also distribute this as an app. The J-SSCG 2020 is expected to be widely used as a useful bedside guideline in the field of sepsis treatment both in Japan and overseas involving multiple disciplines.

How do Covid-19 policy options depend on end-of-year holiday contacts in Mexico City Metropolitan Area? A Modeling Study

BACKGROUND

With more than 20 million residents, Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) has the largest number of Covid-19 cases in Mexico and is at risk of exceeding its hospital capacity in late December 2020.

METHODS

We used SC-COSMO, a dynamic compartmental Covid-19 model, to evaluate scenarios considering combinations of increased contacts during the holiday season, intensification of social distancing, and school reopening. Model parameters were derived from primary data from MCMA, published literature, and calibrated to time-series of incident confirmed cases, deaths, and hospital occupancy. Outcomes included projected confirmed cases and deaths, hospital demand, and magnitude of hospital capacity exceedance.

FINDINGS

Following high levels of holiday contacts even with no in-person schooling, we predict that MCMA will have 1·0 million (95% prediction interval 0·5 - 1·7) additional Covid-19 cases between December 7, 2020 and March 7, 2021 and that hospitalizations will peak at 35,000 (14,700 - 67,500) on January 27, 2021, with a >99% chance of exceeding Covid-19-specific capacity (9,667 beds). If holiday contacts can be controlled, MCMA can reopen in-person schools provided social distancing is increased with 0·5 million (0·2 - 1·0) additional cases and hospitalizations peaking at 14,900 (5,600 - 32,000) on January 23, 2021 (77% chance of exceedance).

INTERPRETATION

MCMA must substantially increase Covid-19 hospital capacity under all scenarios considered. MCMA's ability to reopen schools in mid-January 2021 depends on sustaining social distancing and that contacts during the end-of-year holiday were well controlled.

FUNDING

Society for Medical Decision Making, Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation, and Wadhwani Institute for Artificial Intelligence Foundation.

RESEARCH IN CONTEXT

Evidence before this study: As of mid-December 2020, Mexico has the twelfth highest incidence of confirmed cases of Covid-19 worldwide and its epidemic is currently growing. Mexico's case fatality ratio (CFR) - 9·1% - is the second highest in the world. With more than 20 million residents, Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) has the highest number and incidence rate of Covid-19 confirmed cases in Mexico and a CFR of 8·1%. MCMA is nearing its current hospital capacity even as it faces the prospect of increased social contacts during the 2020 end-of-year holidays. There is limited Mexico-specific evidence available on epidemic, such as parameters governing time-dependent mortality, hospitalization and transmission. Literature searches required supplementation through primary data analysis and model calibration to support the first realistic model-based Covid-19 policy evaluation for Mexico, which makes this analysis relevant and timely.Added value of this study: Study strengths include the use of detailed primary data provided by MCMA; the Bayesian model calibration to enable evaluation of projections and their uncertainty; and consideration of both epidemic and health system outcomes. The model projects that failure to limit social contacts during the end-of-year holidays will substantially accelerate MCMA's epidemic (1·0 million (95% prediction interval 0·5 - 1·7) additional cases by early March 2021). Hospitalization demand could reach 35,000 (14,700 - 67,500), with a >99% chance of exceeding current capacity (9,667 beds). Controlling social contacts during the holidays could enable MCMA to reopen in-person schooling without greatly exacerbating the epidemic provided social distancing in both schools and the community were maintained. Under all scenarios and policies, current hospital capacity appears insufficient, highlighting the need for rapid capacity expansion.Implications of all the available evidence: MCMA officials should prioritize rapid hospital capacity expansion. MCMA's ability to reopen schools in mid-January 2021 depends on sustaining social distancing and that contacts during the end-of-year holiday were well controlled.

Association of an Emergency Department-embedded Critical Care Unit with Hospital Outcomes and Intensive Care Unit Use

Rationale: A small but growing number of hospitals are experimenting with emergency department-embedded critical care units (CCUs) in an effort to improve the quality of care for critically ill patients with sepsis and acute respiratory failure (ARF).Objectives: To evaluate the potential impact of an emergency department-embedded CCU at the Hospital of the University of Pennsylvania among patients with sepsis and ARF admitted from the emergency department to a medical ward or intensive care unit (ICU) from January 2016 to December 2017.Methods: The exposure was eligibility for admission to the emergency department-embedded CCU, which was defined as meeting a clinical definition for sepsis or ARF and admission to the emergency department during the intervention period on a weekday. The primary outcome was hospital length of stay (LOS); secondary outcomes included total emergency department plus ICU LOS, hospital survival, direct admission to the ICU, and unplanned ICU admission. Primary interrupted time series analyses were performed using ordinary least squares regression comparing monthly means. Secondary retrospective cohort and before-after analyses used multivariable Cox proportional hazard and logistic regression.Results: In the baseline and intervention periods, 3,897 patients met the inclusion criteria for sepsis and 1,865 patients met the criteria for ARF. Among patients admitted with sepsis, opening of the emergency department-embedded CCU was not associated with hospital LOS (β = -1.82 d; 95% confidence interval [CI], -4.50 to 0.87; P = 0.17 for the first month after emergency department-embedded CCU opening compared with baseline; β = -0.26 d; 95% CI, -0.58 to 0.06; P = 0.10 for subsequent months). Among patients admitted with ARF, the emergency department-embedded CCU was not associated with a significant change in hospital LOS for the first month after emergency department-embedded CCU opening (β = -3.25 d; 95% CI, -7.86 to 1.36; P = 0.15) but was associated with a 0.64 d/mo shorter hospital LOS for subsequent months (β = -0.64 d; 95% CI, -1.12 to -0.17; P = 0.01). This result persisted among higher acuity patients requiring ventilatory support but was not supported by alternative analytic approaches. Among patients admitted with sepsis who did not require mechanical ventilation or vasopressors in the emergency department, the emergency department-embedded CCU was associated with an initial 9.9% reduction in direct ICU admissions in the first month (β = -0.099; 95% CI, -0.153 to -0.044; P = 0.002), followed by a 1.1% per month increase back toward baseline in subsequent months (β = 0.011; 95% CI, 0.003-0.019; P = 0.009). This relationship was supported by alternative analytic approaches and was not seen in ARF. No associations with emergency department plus ICU LOS, hospital survival, or unplanned ICU admission were observed among patients with sepsis or ARF.Conclusions: The emergency department-embedded CCU was not associated with clinical outcomes among patients admitted with sepsis or ARF. Among less sick patients with sepsis, the emergency department-embedded CCU was initially associated with reduced rates of direct ICU admission from the emergency department. Additional research is necessary to further evaluate the impact and utility of the emergency department-embedded CCU model.

Reduction of early inpatient transfers and rapid response team calls after implementation of an emergency department intake huddle process

Patients admitted to the hospital and requiring a subsequent transfer to a higher level of care have increased morbidity, mortality and length of stay compared with patients who do not require a transfer during their hospital stay. We identified that a high number of patients admitted to our intermediate care (IMC) unit required a rapid response team (RRT) call and an early (<24 hours) transfer to the intensive care unit (ICU). A quality improvement project was initiated with the goal to reduce subsequent early transfers to the ICU and RRT calls. We started by focusing on IMC patients, implementing acuity-based nursing assignments and standardised daily nursing rounds in the IMC aiming to reduce early patient transfers to the ICU. Then, we expanded to all patients admitted to a hospital medical unit from the emergency department (ED), targeting patients with gastrointestinal (GI) bleed and sepsis who were at a higher risk for early transfer to the ICU. We then created an ED intake huddle process that over time was refined to target patients with SIRS criteria with an elevated serum lactic acid level greater than 2.0 mmol/L or a GI bleed with a haematocrit value less than 24%. These interventions resulted in an 10.8 percentage points (31.7% (225/710) to 20.9% (369/1764)) decrease in the early transfers to the ICU for all hospital medicine patients admitted to the hospital from the ED. Mean RRT calls/day decreased by 17%, from 3.0 mean calls/day preintervention to 2.5 mean calls/day postintervention. These quality improvement initiatives have sustained successful outcomes for over 6 years due to integrating enhanced team communication as organisational cultural norm that has become the standard.

The mortality of critically ill patients was not associated with inter-hospital transfer due to a shortage of ICU beds - a single-centre retrospective analysis

Background

Patients in the intensive care unit (ICU) are increasingly being transferred between ICUs due to a shortage of ICU beds, although this practice is potentially harmful. However, in tertiary units, the transfer of patients who are not in need of highly specialized care is often necessary. The aim of this study was to assess the association between a 90-day mortality and inter-hospital transfer due to a shortage of ICU beds in a tertiary centre.

Methods

Data were retrieved from the local ICU database from December 2011 to September 2019. The primary analysis was a risk-adjusted logistic regression model. Secondary analyses comprised case/control (transfer/non-transfer) matching.

Results

A total of 573 patients were transferred due to a shortage of ICU beds, and 8106 patients were not transferred. Crude 90-day mortality was higher in patients transferred due to a shortage of beds (189 patients (33%) vs 2188 patients (27%), p = 0.002). In the primary, risk-adjusted analysis, the risk of death at 90 days was similar between the groups (odds ratio 0.923, 95% confidence interval 0.75–1.14, p = 0.461). In the secondary analyses, a 90-day mortality was similar in transferred and non-transferred patients matched according to SAPS 3-score, age, days in the ICU and ICU diagnosis (p = 0.407); SOFA score on the day of discharge, ICU diagnosis and age (p = 0.634); or in a propensity score model (p = 0.229).

Conclusion

Mortality at 90 days in critically ill patients treated in a tertiary centre was not affected by transfer to another intensive care units due to a shortage of beds. We found this conclusion to be valid under the assumption that patients are carefully selected and that the transports are safely performed.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40560-020-00501-z.

Impact of early ICU admission on outcome of critically ill and critically ill cancer patients: A systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVE

Prognostic impact of early ICU admission remains controversial. The aim of this review was to investigate the impact of early ICU admission in the general ICU population and in critically ill cancer patients and to report level of evidences of this later.

METHODS

Systematic review and meta-analysis performed on articles published between 1970 and 2017. Two authors extracted data. Influence of early ICU admission on mortality is reported as Risk Ratio (95%CI) using both fixed and random-effects model.

DATA SYNTHESIS

For general ICU population, 31 studies reporting on 73,213 patients were included (including 66,797 patients with early ICU admission) and for critically ill cancer patients 14 studies reporting on 2414 patients (including 1272 with early ICU admission) were included. Early ICU admission was associated with decreased mortality using a random effect model (RR 0.65; 95% confidence interval 0.58-0.73; I² = 66%) in overall ICU population as in critically ill cancer patients (RR 0.69; 95% confidence interval 0.52-0.90; I² = 85%). To explore heterogeneity, a meta-regression was performed. Characteristics of the trials (prospective vs. retrospective, monocenter vs. multicenter) had no impact on findings. Publication after 2010 (median publication period) was associated with a lower effect of early ICU admission (estimate 0.37; 95%CI 0.14-0.60; P = 0.002) in the general ICU population. A significant publication bias was observed.

CONCLUSION

Theses results suggest that early ICU admission is associated with decreased mortality in the general ICU population and in CICP. These results were however obtained from high risk of bias studies and a high heterogeneity was noted. Systematic review registration: PROSPERO 2018 CRD42018094828.

Risk Factors Associated With Mortality Among Patients With COVID-19 in Intensive Care Units in Lombardy, Italy

IMPORTANCE

Many patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are critically ill and require care in the intensive care unit (ICU).

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the independent risk factors associated with mortality of patients with COVID-19 requiring treatment in ICUs in the Lombardy region of Italy.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This retrospective, observational cohort study included 3988 consecutive critically ill patients with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19 referred for ICU admission to the coordinating center (Fondazione IRCCS [Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico] Ca' Granda Ospedale Maggiore Policlinico, Milan, Italy) of the COVID-19 Lombardy ICU Network from February 20 to April 22, 2020. Infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 was confirmed by real-time reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction assay of nasopharyngeal swabs. Follow-up was completed on May 30, 2020.

EXPOSURES

Baseline characteristics, comorbidities, long-term medications, and ventilatory support at ICU admission.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Time to death in days from ICU admission to hospital discharge. The independent risk factors associated with mortality were evaluated with a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression.

RESULTS

Of the 3988 patients included in this cohort study, the median age was 63 (interquartile range [IQR] 56-69) years; 3188 (79.9%; 95% CI, 78.7%-81.1%) were men, and 1998 of 3300 (60.5%; 95% CI, 58.9%-62.2%) had at least 1 comorbidity. At ICU admission, 2929 patients (87.3%; 95% CI, 86.1%-88.4%) required invasive mechanical ventilation (IMV). The median follow-up was 44 (95% CI, 40-47; IQR, 11-69; range, 0-100) days; median time from symptoms onset to ICU admission was 10 (95% CI, 9-10; IQR, 6-14) days; median length of ICU stay was 12 (95% CI, 12-13; IQR, 6-21) days; and median length of IMV was 10 (95% CI, 10-11; IQR, 6-17) days. Cumulative observation time was 164 305 patient-days. Hospital and ICU mortality rates were 12 (95% CI, 11-12) and 27 (95% CI, 26-29) per 1000 patients-days, respectively. In the subgroup of the first 1715 patients, as of May 30, 2020, 865 (50.4%) had been discharged from the ICU, 836 (48.7%) had died in the ICU, and 14 (0.8%) were still in the ICU; overall, 915 patients (53.4%) died in the hospital. Independent risk factors associated with mortality included older age (hazard ratio [HR], 1.75; 95% CI, 1.60-1.92), male sex (HR, 1.57; 95% CI, 1.31-1.88), high fraction of inspired oxygen (Fio2) (HR, 1.14; 95% CI, 1.10-1.19), high positive end-expiratory pressure (HR, 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01-1.06) or low Pao2:Fio2 ratio (HR, 0.80; 95% CI, 0.74-0.87) on ICU admission, and history of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (HR, 1.68; 95% CI, 1.28-2.19), hypercholesterolemia (HR, 1.25; 95% CI, 1.02-1.52), and type 2 diabetes (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.01-1.39). No medication was independently associated with mortality (angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors HR, 1.17; 95% CI, 0.97-1.42; angiotensin receptor blockers HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 0.85-1.29).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this retrospective cohort study of critically ill patients admitted to ICUs in Lombardy, Italy, with laboratory-confirmed COVID-19, most patients required IMV. The mortality rate and absolute mortality were high.

Influence of patients’ clinical features at intensive care unit admission on performance of cell cycle arrest biomarkers in predicting acute kidney injury

Objectives

Identification of acute kidney injury (AKI) can be challenging in patients with a variety of clinical features at intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and the capacity of biomarkers in this subpopulation has been poorly studied. In our study we examined the influence that patients’ clinical features at ICU admission have over the predicting ability of the combination of urinary tissue inhibitor of metalloproteinase-2 (TIMP2) and insulin-like growth factor binding protein 7 (IGFBP7).

Methods

Urinary [TIMP2]•[IGFBP7] were measured for all patients upon admission to ICU. We calculated the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves for AKI prediction in the overall cohort and for subgroups of patients according to etiology of ICU admission, which included: sepsis, trauma, neurological conditions, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, and non-classifiable causes.

Results

In the overall cohort of 719 patients, 239 (33.2%) developed AKI in the first seven days. [TIMP2]•[IGFBP7] at ICU admission were significantly higher in AKI patients than in non-AKI patients. This is true not only for the overall cohort but also in the other subgroups. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) for [TIMP2]•[IGFBP7] in predicting AKI in the first seven days was 0.633 (95% CI 0.588–0.678), for the overall cohort, with sensitivity and specificity of 66.1 and 51.9% respectively. When we considered patients with combined sepsis, trauma, and respiratory disease we found a higher AUC than patients without these conditions (0.711 vs. 0.575; p=0.002).

Conclusions

The accuracy of [TIMP2]•[IGFBP7] in predicting the risk of AKI in the first seven days after ICU admission has significant variability when the reason for ICU admission is considered.

Intensive Care Unit Bed Utilization and Head Injury Burden in a Resource-Poor Setting

INTRODUCTION

In high-income countries (HICs), the intensive care unit (ICU) bed density is approximately 20-32 beds/100 000 population compared with countries in sub-Saharan Africa, like Malawi, with an ICU bed density of 0.1 beds/100 000 population. We hypothesize that the ICU bed utilization in Malawi will be high.

METHODS

This is an observational study at a tertiary care center in Malawi from August 2016 to May 2018. Variables used to evaluate ICU bed utilization include ICU length of stay (LOS), bed occupancy rates (average daily ICU census/number of ICU beds), bed turnover (total number of admissions/number of ICU beds), and turnover intervals (number of ICU bed days/total number of admissions - average ICU LOS).

RESULTS

494 patients were admitted to the ICU during the study period. The average LOS during the study period was 4.8 ± 6.0 days. Traumatic brain injury patients had the most extended LOS (8.7 ± 6.8 days) with a 49.5% ICU mortality. The bed occupancy rate per year was 74.7%. The calculated bed turnover was 56.5 persons treated per bed per year. The average turnover interval, defined as the number of days for a vacant bed to be occupied by the successive patient admission, was 1.63 days.

CONCLUSION

Despite the high burden of critical illness, the bed occupancy rates, turn over days, and turnover interval reveal significant underutilization of the available ICU beds. ICU bed underutilization may be attributable to the absence of an admission and discharge protocols. A lack of brain death policy further impedes appropriate ICU utilization.

Early mortality in critical illness - A descriptive analysis of patients who died within 24 hours of ICU admission

PURPOSE

To describe patients who die within 24 h of ICU admission in order to better optimize care delivery.

METHODS

This was a retrospective cohort study of patients ≥18 years old admitted to 17 adult ICUs in Alberta, Canada from January 1, 2016 and June 30, 2017. Data were obtained from a provincial clinical information system and data repository. The primary outcome was incidence of ICU death within 24 h of admission. Secondary outcomes were patient and system factors associated with early death. Variables of interest were identified a priori and examined using multivariable logistic regression.

RESULTS

Of 19,556 patients admitted to ICU in an 18-month period, 3.3% died within 24 h, representing 29.8% of ICU deaths. Factors associated with early death were age (adjusted-OR 0.99, 95% CI, 0.9-1.0), acuity (adjusted-OR 1.3, 95% CI, 1.3-1.4), admission from the Emergency Department (ED; adjusted-OR 1.5, 95% CI, 1.1-1.9) and surgical (adjusted-OR 2.27, 95% CI, 1.4-3.6), neurologic (adjusted-OR 4.6, 95% CI, 3.1-6.9) or trauma diagnosis (adjusted-OR 6.1, 95% CI, 2.4-15.6).

CONCLUSION

Patients who die within 24 h constitute one third of ICU deaths. Age, acuity, admission from the ED and surgical, neurologic or trauma-related admission diagnosis correlate with early death.

Early mobilization for children in intensive therapy: A protocol for systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Intensive care units focus primarily on life support and treatment of critically ill patients, but there are many survivors with complications, such as generalized muscle disorders, functional disability and reduced quality of life after hospital discharge, resulting from prolonged stays in these units. The current evidence suggests that early mobilization-based rehabilitation (exercise initiated immediately after the patient's significant physiological changes have stabilized) in critically ill adults can alleviate these complications from immobility and critical illness. However, there are a lack of practice guidelines, conflicting perceptions about safety, and knowledge gaps about benefits in the critically ill paediatric population. Therefore, we aim to assess the effects of early mobilization for children in intensive therapy.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Systematic searches will be carried out in Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online, Excerpta Medica database, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Latin American and Caribbean Centre on Health Sciences Information, Cumulative Index to Nursing & Allied Health Literature and physiotherapy evidence database databases at a minimum without date or language restrictions for relevant individual parallel, cross-over and cluster randomized controlled trials. In addition, a search will also be carried out in the World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and in the clinical trial registries of ClinicalTrials.gov, looking for any on-going randomised controlled trials that compare early mobilization with any other type of intervention. Two review authors will independently perform data extraction and quality assessments of data from included studies, and any disagreements will be resolved by discussion or by arbitration. The primary outcomes will be mortality and adverse events. Secondary outcomes will include duration of critical care (days), duration of mechanical ventilation support, muscle strength, pain and neuropsychomotor development. The Cochrane handbook will be used for guidance. If the results are not appropriate for a meta-analysis in RevMan 5 software (e.g., if the data have considerable heterogeneity and are drawn from different comparisons), a descriptive analysis will be performed.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This protocol was prospectively registered at Open Science Framework and approved by the Ethics and Research Committee of the Federal University of Sao Paulo (8543210519). We intend to update the public registry used in this review, report any important protocol amendments and publish the results in a widely accessible journal. REGISTRATION:: osf.io/ebju9.

Ethical dilemmas due to the Covid-19 pandemic

The devastating pandemic that has stricken the worldwide population induced an unprecedented influx of patients in ICUs, raising ethical concerns not only surrounding triage and withdrawal of life support decisions, but also regarding family visits and quality of end-of-life support. These ingredients are liable to shake up our ethical principles, sharpen our ethical dilemmas, and lead to situations of major caregiver sufferings. Proposals have been made to rationalize triage policies in conjunction with ethical justifications. However, whatever the angle of approach, imbalance between utilitarian and individual ethics leads to unsolvable discomforts that caregivers will need to overcome. With this in mind, we aimed to point out some critical ethical choices with which ICU caregivers have been confronted during the Covid-19 pandemic and to underline their limits. The formalized strategies integrating the relevant tools of ethical reflection were disseminated without deviating from usual practices, leaving to intensivists the ultimate choice of decision.

Caring for the surgical patient with limited ICU resources

PURPOSE OF REVIEW

The current review aims to discuss the management of surgical patients in an ICU in countries where resources are limited.

RECENT FINDINGS

ICU beds in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) are limited and also have limited human and structural resources. The working force has been described to be the costliest factor. Nevertheless, costs for intensive care in LMICs are one third from the cost reported from high-income countries. Alternative options have been described, so intensive care can be delivered outside ICU. Examples are Rapid-Response Systems and Medical Emergency Teams.

SUMMARY

The care of the surgical patients in an intensive care setting in countries with resource limitations should be optimized, protocols for standardized care implemented and Better research and resource allocation, as well as investment in healthcare training are essential for the development of intensive care in LMICs is necessary.

Factors Affecting Mortality in Patients Admitted to the Hospital by Emergency Physicians despite Disagreement with Other Specialties

Background

Emergency physicians (EPs) face critical admission decisions, and their judgments are questioned in some developing systems. This study aims to define the factors affecting mortality in patients admitted to the hospital by EPs against in-service departments' decision and evaluate EPs' admission diagnosis with final discharge diagnosis.

Methods

This is a retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data of ten consecutive years (2008–2017) of an emergency department of a university medical center. Adult patients (≥18 years-old) who were admitted to the hospital by EPs against in-service departments' decision were enrolled in the study. Significant factors affecting mortality were defined by the backward logistic regression model.

Results

369 consecutive patients were studied, and 195 (52.8%) were males. The mean (SD) age was 65.5 (17.3) years. The logistic regression model showed that significant factors affecting mortality were intubation (p < 0.0001), low systolic blood pressure (p = 0.006), increased age (p = 0.013), and having a comorbidity (p = 0.024). There was no significant difference between EPs' primary admission diagnosis and patient's final primary diagnosis at the time of disposition from the admitted departments (McNemar–Bowker test, p = 0.45). 96% of the primary admission diagnoses of EPs were correct.

Conclusions

Intubation, low systolic blood pressure on presentation, increased age, and having a comorbidity increased the mortality. EPs admission diagnoses were highly correlated with the final diagnosis. EPs make difficult admission decisions with high accuracy, if needed.

Implementing an intervention to improve decision making around referral and admission to intensive care: Results of feasibility testing in three NHS hospitals

RATIONALE, AIMS, AND OBJECTIVES

Decisions about whether to refer or admit a patient to an intensive care unit (ICU) are clinically, organizationally, and ethically challenging. Many explicit and implicit factors influence these decisions, and there is substantial variability in how they are made, leading to concerns about access to appropriate treatment for critically ill patients. There is currently no guidance to support doctors making these decisions. We developed an intervention with the aim of supporting doctors to make more transparent, consistent, patient-centred, and ethically justified decisions. This paper reports on the implementation of the intervention at three NHS hospitals in England and evaluates its feasibility in terms of usage, acceptability, and perceived impact on decision making.

METHODS

A mixed method study including quantitative assessment of usage and qualitative interviews.

RESULTS

There was moderate uptake of the framework (28.2% of referrals to ICU across all sites during the 3-month study period). Organizational structure and culture affected implementation. Concerns about increased workload in the context of limited resources were obstacles to its use. Doctors who used it reported a positive impact on decision making, with better articulation and communication of reasons for decisions, and greater attention to patient wishes. The intervention made explicit the uncertainty inherent in these decisions, and this was sometimes challenging. The patient and family information leaflets were not used.

CONCLUSIONS

While it is feasible to implement an intervention to improve decision making around referral and admission to ICU, embedding the intervention into existing organizational culture and practice would likely increase adoption. The doctor-facing elements of the intervention were generally acceptable and were perceived as making ICU decision making more transparent and patient-centred. While there remained difficulties in articulating the clinical reasoning behind some decisions, the intervention offers an important step towards establishing a more clinically and ethically sound approach to ICU admission.

A systematic review and meta-analysis of acute kidney injury in the intensive care units of developed and developing countries

Objectives

Although the majority of the global population lives in developing countries, most of the epidemiological data related to intensive care unit (ICU) acute kidney injury (AKI) comes from developed countries. This systematic review aims to ascertain the methodology of studies on ICU AKI patients in developing and developed countries, to determine whether epidemiological comparisons between these two settings are possible, and to present a summary estimate of AKI incidence.

Methods

A systematic review of published studies reporting AKI in intensive care units (2005–2015) identified in PubMed, LILACS, and IBECs databases was conducted. We compared developed and developing countries by evaluating study methodology, AKI reference serum creatinine definitions, population characteristics, AKI incidence and mortality. AKI incidence was calculated with a random-effects model.

Results

Ninety-two studies were included, one of which reported data from both country categories: 60 from developed countries (1,057,332 patients) and 33 from developing countries (34,539 patients). In 78% of the studies, AKI was defined by the RIFLE, AKIN or KDIGO criteria. Oliguria had 11 different definitions and reference creatinine 23 different values. For the meta-analysis, 38 studies from developed and 18 from developing countries were selected, with similar AKI incidence: 39.3% and 35.1%, respectively. The need for dialysis, length of ICU stay and mortality were higher in developing countries.

Conclusion

Although patient characteristics and AKI incidence were similar in developed and developing countries, main outcomes were worse in developing country studies. There are significant caveats when comparing AKI epidemiology in developed and developing countries, including lack of standardization of reference serum creatinine, oliguria and the timeframe for AKI assessment. Larger, prospective, multicenter studies from developing countries are urgently needed to capture AKI data from the overall population without ICU access.

Goldilocks, the Three Bears and Intensive Care Unit Utilization: Delivering Enough Intensive Care But Not Too Much. A Narrative Review

Professional societies have developed recommendations for patient triage protocols, but wide variations in triage patterns for many acute conditions exist among hospitals in the United States. Differences in hospitals’ triage patterns can be attributed to factors such as physician behavior, hospital policy and real-time conditions such as intensive care unit capacity. The patient safety concern is that patients evaluated for admission to the intensive care unit during times of high intensive care unit capacity may have adverse outcomes related to delays in care. Because standardization of a national triage policy is not feasible due to differing resources available at each hospital, local guidelines should prevail that take into account hospitals’ local resources. The goal would be to better match intensive care unit bed supply with demand.

Indian Society of Critical Care Medicine Experts Committee Consensus Statement on ICU Planning and Designing, 2020

BACKGROUND

Indian Society of Critical Care Medicine (ISCCM) guidelines on Planning and Designing Intensive care (ICU) were first developed in 2001 and later updated in 2007. These guidelines were adopted in India, many developing Nations and major Institutions including NABH. Various international professional bodies in critical care have their own position papers and guidelines on planning and designing of ICUs; being the professional body of intensivists in India ISCCM therefore addresses the subject in contemporary context relevant to our clinical practice, its variability according to specialty and subspecialty, quality, resource limitation, size and location of the institution. Aim: To have a consensus document reflecting the philosophy of ISCCM to deliver safe & quality Critical Care in India, taking into consideration the requirement of regulatory agencies (national & international) and need of people at large, including promotion of training, education and skill upgradation. It also aiming to promote leadership and development and managerial skill among the critical care team. Material and Methods: Extensive review of literature including search of databases in English language, resources of regulatory bodies, guidelines and recommendations of international critical care societies. National Survey of ISCCM members and experts to understand their viewpoints on respective issues. Visiting of different types and levels of ICUs by team members to understand prevailing practices, aspiration and Challenges. Several face to face meetings of the expert committee members in big and small groups with extensive discussions, presentations, brain storming and development of initial consensus draft. Discussion on draft through video conferencing, phone calls, Emails circulations, one to one discussion Result: Based upon extensive review, survey and input of experts' ICUs were categorized in to three levels suitable in Indian setting. Level III ICUs further divided into sub category A and B. Recommendations were grouped in to structure, equipment and services of ICU with consideration of variation in level of ICU of different category of hospitals. Conclusion: This paper summarizes consensus statement of various aspect of ICU planning and design. Defined mandatory and desirable standards of all level of ICUs and made recommendations regarding structure and layout of ICUs. Definition of intensive care and intensivist, planning for strength of ICU and requirement of manpower were also described.

HOW TO CITE THIS ARTICLE

Rungta N, Zirpe KG, Dixit SB, Mehta Y, Chaudhry D, Govil D, et al. Indian Society of Critical Care Medicine Experts Committee Consensus Statement on ICU Planning and Designing, 2020. Indian J Crit Care Med 2020;24(Suppl 1):S43-S60.

Direct admission to the intensive care unit from the emergency department and mortality in critically ill hematology patients

Background

The aim of this study was to assess the benefit of direct ICU admission from the emergency department (ED) compared to admission from wards, in patients with hematological malignancies requiring critical care.

Methods

Post hoc analysis derived from a prospective, multicenter cohort study of 1011 critically ill adult patients with hematologic malignancies admitted to 17 ICU in Belgium and France from January 2010 to May 2011. The variable of interest was a direct ICU admission from the ED and the outcome was in-hospital mortality. The association between the variable of interest and the outcome was assessed by multivariable logistic regression after multiple imputation of missing data. Several sensitivity analyses were performed: complete case analysis, propensity score matching and multivariable Cox proportional-hazards analysis of 90-day survival.

Results

Direct ICU admission from the ED occurred in 266 (26.4%) cases, 84 of whom (31.6%) died in the hospital versus 311/742 (41.9%) in those who did not. After adjustment, direct ICU admission from the ED was associated with a decreased in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR: 0.63; 95% CI 0.45–0.88). This was confirmed in the complete cases analysis (adjusted OR: 0.64; 95% CI 0.45–0.92) as well as in terms of hazard of death within the 90 days after admission (adjusted HR: 0.77; 95% CI 0.60–0.99). By contrast, in the propensity score-matched sample of 402 patients, direct admission was not associated with in-hospital mortality (adjusted OR: 0.92; 95% CI 0.84–1.01).

Conclusions

In this study, patients with hematological malignancies admitted to the ICU were more likely to be alive at hospital discharge if they were directly admitted from the ED rather than from the wards. Assessment of early predictors of poor outcome in cancer patients admitted to the ED is crucial so as to allow early referral to the ICU and avoid delays in treatment initiation and mis-orientation.

Near-simultaneous intensive care unit (ICU) admissions and all-cause mortality: a cohort study

PURPOSE

Prior studies have reported the adverse effects of strain on patient outcomes. There is a paucity of literature about a type of strain that may be caused by near-simultaneous intensive care unit (ICU) admissions. We hypothesized that when multiple admissions arrive nearly at the same time, the ICU teams are excessively strained, and this leads to unfavorable patient outcomes.

METHODS

This is a retrospective cohort study of consecutive adult patients admitted to an academic medical ICU of a tertiary referral center over five consecutive years. Primary outcomes were the all-cause hospital and ICU mortality.

RESULTS

We enrolled 13,234 consecutive ICU admissions during the study period. One-fourth of the admissions had an elapsed time since the last admission (ETLA) of < 55 min. Near-simultaneous admissions (NSA) had on average, a higher unadjusted odds ratio (OR) of ICU death of 1.16 (95% CI 1-1.35, P = 0.05), adjusted 1.23 (95% CI 1.04-1.44, P = 0.01), unadjusted hospital death of 1.11 (95% CI 0.99-1.24, P = 0.06), adjusted 1.20 (95% 1.05-1.35, P = 0.004), and a lower adjusted OR of home discharge of 0.91 (95% CI 0.84-0.99, P = 0.04). NSA was associated with 0.16 (95% CI 0.04-0.29, P = 0.01) added days in the ICU. For each incremental unit increase of the logarithmic transformation of ETLA [log (ETLA in minutes)], the average adjusted hospital mortality OR incrementally decreased by an added average OR of 0.93 (95% CI 0.89‒0.97, P = 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Our results suggest that near-simultaneous ICU admissions (NSA) are frequent and are associated with a dose-dependent effect on mortality, length of stay, and odds of home versus nursing facility discharge.

Testing a digital system that ranks the risk of unplanned intensive care unit admission in all ward patients: protocol for a prospective observational cohort study

INTRODUCTION

Traditional early warning scores (EWSs) use vital sign derangements to detect clinical deterioration in patients treated on hospital wards. Combining vital signs with demographics and laboratory results improves EWS performance. We have developed the Hospital Alerting Via Electronic Noticeboard (HAVEN) system. HAVEN uses vital signs, as well as demographic, comorbidity and laboratory data from the electronic patient record, to quantify and rank the risk of unplanned admission to an intensive care unit (ICU) within 24 hours for all ward patients. The primary aim of this study is to find additional variables, potentially missed during development, which may improve HAVEN performance. These variables will be sought in the medical record of patients misclassified by the HAVEN risk score during testing.

METHODS

This will be a prospective, observational, cohort study conducted at the John Radcliffe Hospital, part of the Oxford University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust in the UK. Each day during the study periods, we will document all highly ranked patients (ie, those with the highest risk for unplanned ICU admission) identified by the HAVEN system. After 48 hours, we will review the progress of the identified patients. Patients who were subsequently admitted to the ICU will be removed from the study (as they will have been correctly classified by HAVEN). Highly ranked patients not admitted to ICU will undergo a structured medical notes review. Additionally, at the end of the study periods, all patients who had an unplanned ICU admission but whom HAVEN failed to rank highly will have a structured medical notes review. The review will identify candidate variables, likely associated with unplanned ICU admission, not included in the HAVEN risk score.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Approval has been granted for gathering the data used in this study from the South Central Oxford C Research Ethics Committee (16/SC/0264, 13 June 2016) and the Confidentiality Advisory Group (16/CAG/0066).

DISCUSSION

Our study will use a clinical expert conducting a structured medical notes review to identify variables, associated with unplanned ICU admission, not included in the development of the HAVEN risk score. These variables will then be added to the risk score and evaluated for potential performance gain. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of this type. We anticipate that documenting the HAVEN development methods will assist other research groups developing similar technology.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN12518261.

The Critical Care Society of Southern Africa Consensus Statement on ICU Triage and Rationing (ConICTri)

Background

In South Africa (SA), intensive care is faced with the challenge of resource scarcity as well as an increasing demand for intensive care unit (ICU) services. ICU services are expensive, and practitioners in low- to middle-income countries experience daily the consequences of limited resources. Critically limited resources necessitate that rationing and triage (prioritisation) decisions are frequently necessary in SA, particularly in the publicly funded health sector.

Purpose

The purpose of this consensus statement is to examine key questions that arise when considering the status of ICU resources in SA, and more specifically ICU admission, rationing and triage decisions. The accompanying guideline in this issue is intended to guide frontline triage policy and ensure the best utilisation of intensive care in SA, while maintaining a fair distribution of available resources. Fair and efficient triage is important to ensure the ongoing provision of high-quality care to adult patients referred for intensive care.

Recommendations

In response to 14 key questions developed using a modified Delphi technique, 29 recommendations were formulated and graded using an adapted GRADE score. The 14 key questions addressed the status of the provision of ICU services in SA, the degree of resource restriction, the efficiency of resource management, the need for triage, and how triage could be most justly implemented. Important recommendations included the need to formally recognise and accurately quantify the provision of ICU services in SA by national audit; actively seek additional resources from governmental bodies; consider methods to maximise the efficiency of ICU care; evaluate lower level of care alternatives; develop a triage guideline to assist policy-makers and frontline practitioners to implement triage decisions in an efficient and fair way; measure and audit the consequence of triage; and promote research to improve the accuracy and consistency of triage decisions. The consensus document and guideline should be reviewed and revised appropriately within 5 years.

Conclusion

In recognition of the absolute need to limit patient access to ICU because of the lack of sufficient intensive care resources in public hospitals, recommendations and a guideline have been developed to guide policy-making and assist frontline triage decision-making in SA. These documents are not a complete plan for quality practice but rather the beginning of a long-term initiative to engage clinicians, the public and administrators in appropriate triage decision-making, and promote systems that will ultimately maximise the efficient and fair use of available ICU resources.

Impact of triage-to-admission time on patient outcome in European intensive care units: A prospective, multi-national study

PURPOSE

Ubiquitous bed shortages lead to delays in intensive care unit (ICU) admissions worldwide. Assessing the impact of delayed admission must account for illness severity. This study examined both the relationship between triage-to-admission time and 28-day mortality and the impact of controlling for Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) II scores on that relationship.

METHODS

Prospective cross-sectional analysis of referrals to eleven ICUs in seven European countries between 2003 and 2005. Outcomes among patients admitted within versus after 4 h were compared using a Chi-square test. Triage-to-admission time was also analyzed as a continuous variable; outcomes were assessed using a non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test.

RESULTS

Among 3175 patients analyzed, triage-to-admission time was 2.1 ± 3.9 h. Patients admitted within 4 h had higher SAPS II scores (33.6 versus 30.6, Pearson correlation coefficient -0.07, p < 0.0001). 28-day mortality was surprisingly higher among patients admitted earlier (29.6 vs 25.2%, OR 1.25, 95% CI 0.99-1.58, p = 0.06). Even after adjusting for SAPS II scores, delayed admission was not associated with higher mortality (OR 1.08, CI 0.83-1.41, p = 0.58).

CONCLUSIONS

Even after accounting for quantifiable parameters of illness severity, delayed admission did not negatively impact outcome. Triage practices likely influence outcomes. Severity scores may not fully reflect illness acuity or trajectory.