A re-analysis of caries rates in a preventive trial using Poisson regression models

Modeling event count data in the presence of informative dropout with application to bleeding and transfusion events in myelodysplastic syndrome

In many biomedical studies, it is often of interest to model event count data over the study period. For some patients, we may not follow up them for the entire study period owing to informative dropout. The dropout time can potentially provide valuable insight on the rate of the events. We propose a joint semiparametric model for event count data and informative dropout time that allows for correlation through a Gamma frailty. We develop efficient likelihood-based estimation and inference procedures. The proposed nonparametric maximum likelihood estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. Furthermore, the asymptotic covariances of the finite-dimensional parameter estimates attain the semiparametric efficiency bound. Extensive simulation studies demonstrate that the proposed methods perform well in practice. We illustrate the proposed methods through an application to a clinical trial for bleeding and transfusion events in myelodysplastic syndrome. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Statistical Issues for Combining Multiple Caries Diagnostics for Demonstrating Caries Efficacy

Caries efficacy in clinical trials has been based primarily on visual examinations supplemented by Fiber Optic Transillumination (FOTI) and radiography, with the assessments combined at the surface level to classify each surface as to its caries status. Newer caries diagnostics techniques measure the caries process in a quantitative manner and so thus yield continuous rather than ordinal results. The objective of this study was to examine various methods for the analysis of multiple outcomes in clinical trials and to compare their usefulness for the analysis of caries trials. Four global tests (rank sum, ordinary least squares, general least squares, and generalized estimating equations) and two caries indices (based on average and maximum values of the methods) were evaluated with the use of one-year follow-up data from 1063 children in a recent caries trial. A new hybrid method was also developed and evaluated. All of the methods performed well when the diagnostic measures showed product differences in caries in the same direction. Ease of use, interpretability, and distributional assumptions must be considered before a consensus method for analysis of multiple diagnostic measures in caries trials can be determined.

Efficiency Issues among Statistical Methods for Demonstrating Efficacy of Caries Prevention

Although repeated tooth-surface-specific information is commonly collected during a longitudinal caries clinical trial, traditional methods often make limited use of the repeated measures. Newer methods of analysis, such as methods based on time-to-event and methods for longitudinal or clustered data, have the potential to increase the efficiency of the statistical analysis. We compare a range of analytical methods from the traditional analysis based only on the number of caries onsets to newer methods that incorporate time at risk and surface-specific information, such as Poisson regression methods for clustered data, with respect to the efficiency of treatment comparisons. Under most circumstances, the greatest gain in efficiency associated with time-to-event methods will be due to the ability of subjects to contribute caries onsets to the analysis until they are lost from the study. Incorporating the number of surfaces at risk, the surface time at risk, and surface-specific characteristics will typically produce only a modest gain in efficiency.

The Role of Risk Factors in the Identification of Appropriate Subjects for Caries Clinical Trials: Design Considerations

In seeking new and more effective therapies to delay or prevent caries development, investigators must design clinical trials focused on high-risk populations with a predictable incidence of caries over a limited period of time. In children and adolescents, the strongest predictors of caries incidence appear to be baseline levels of caries activity (present caries, e.g., dmfs, DMFT, caries lesions in first molars). Other predictors of caries risk typically include oral hygiene level, counts of cariogenic micro-organisms in plaque and saliva, fluoride history, sucrose intake, and parent's socio-economic level. This paper will briefly review existing literature to address the most useful and relevant prognostic factors for predicting future caries onset. The relative merits of identifying high-risk subjects based on these factors, either singly or in combination, will be explored in terms of statistical efficiency. Particular attention will focus on the advantages of covariate adjustment in the context of survival-based methods for the analysis of caries data. Further, with the advent of more sophisticated diagnostic procedures ( e.g., quantitative light fluorescence) to screen and monitor study subjects for caries activity, there is the potential for earlier states of lesion initiation and progression (or regression) to be detected, with, therefore, improved experimental sensitivity to treatment effects. The validity of risk assessment and outcome measurement on the basis of these new diagnostic tools vs. more conventional methods will be examined.

Effectiveness of a preventive program based on caries risk assessment and recall intervals on the incidence and regression of initial caries lesions in children

BACKGROUND

Evidence on caries risk assessment (CRA) and recall intervals are limited in terms of caries prevention.

AIM

To assess the effectiveness of a program on the incidence and regression of initial caries lesions.

DESIGN

A total of 296 children aged 1-12 years old were assessed by calibrated examiners for Gingival Bleeding Index, Dental Plaque Index, dmf-t/DMF-T Index, initial caries lesions, and caries lesion activity. Children were classified as low, moderate, and high caries risk with different recall interval visits. Statistical analysis included Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier curves.

RESULTS

The mean (SD) time of total follow-up for the sample was 11.5(5.5). Higher dmft index at baseline showed a higher risk of new initial lesions (HR = 1.93; P < 0.0001). Higher number of active initial lesions, at baseline and during follow-up visits, is a higher risk predictor for new initial lesions (HR = 9.49; P < 0.0001), as well as for no arrestment of active lesions during follow-up (HR = 1.32; P < 0.0001). Each follow-up visit attended presented a 77% lower risk of initial lesions. The majority (94.8%) of patients did not show new initial lesions.

CONCLUSIONS

The Program is effective on reducing the incidence and promoting regression of initial caries lesions in children.

Review of 36,537 patient records for tooth health and longevity of dental restorations

To develop an automatic system for utilizing electronic dental records, a data mining system to extract the diagnostic and treatment codes from the records for an intermediate file and automatic drawing of Kaplan-Meier-type survival curves was first created. Then this intermediate file was analyzed with SAS software for the scientific determination of Kaplan-Meier survival of tooth/surface-specific healthy time and survival of restorations in each permanent tooth, health center, and age cohort and also combined. All patients born in 1985, 1990 or 1995 in 28 health centers in Finland were analyzed. Patients classified as caries-active were those who had caries in any first permanent molar under the age of 8 years, while resistant patients did not have caries in these teeth before 10 years. In the younger age cohorts, a shortening of survival of caries-free teeth was seen. The shortest caries-free survival was seen in mandibular and maxillary molars in the youngest age cohort. Occlusal surfaces of molars determined their caries onsets and proximal caries occurred equally in molars, incisors and premolars, whereas canines or mandibular incisors did not have caries in these age cohorts. Caries-prone subjects had the shortest survival in all their teeth. The median longevity of all restorations was 11.7 years, with great variation between health centers and teeth. Because of the great variation between individual teeth, the tooth-specific approach seems appropriate in both caries epidemiology and material sciences.

Vitamin D and dental caries in controlled clinical trials: systematic review and meta-analysis

Vitamin D has been used to prevent and treat dental caries. The objective of this study was to conduct a systematic review of controlled clinical trials (CCTs) assessing the impact of vitamin D on dental caries prevention. Random-effects and meta-regression models were used to evaluate overall and subgroup-specific relative-rate estimates. Twenty-four CCTs encompassing 2,827 children met the inclusion criteria. Twenty-two of the 24 CCTs predated modern clinical trial design, some of which nonetheless reported characteristics such as pseudo-randomization (n = 2), blinding (n = 4), or use of placebos (n = 8). The relative-rate estimates of the 24 CCTs exhibited significant heterogeneity (P < 0.0001), and there was evidence of significant publication bias (P < 0.001). The pooled relative-rate estimate of supplemental vitamin D was 0.53 (95% CI, 0.43-0.65). No robust differences were identified between the caries-preventive effects of vitamin D(2) , vitamin D(3) , and ultraviolet radiation (Prob > F = 0.22). The analysis of CCT data identified vitamin D as a promising caries-preventive agent, leading to a low-certainty conclusion that vitamin D may reduce the incidence of caries.

A practice-based study on the effect of a short sucrose/xylitol exposure on survival of primary teeth caries free

BACKGROUND

In a randomized double-blinded clinical trial, preschool children used sucrose or xylitol chewing gum regularly for 2 months to study the preventive effect of xylitol on acute otitis media (AOM). Salivary mutans streptococci (sm) levels of the children were measured before the exposure. Those with ≥10(5) sm CFU in 1 mL saliva were considered to have high sm levels (sm+); and those with <10(5) CFU low sm levels (sm-).

AIM

This practice-based study aims to evaluate long-term dental effects of the sucrose/xylitol exposure on primary teeth.

DESIGN

For analyses, individuals were divided into sub groups according to their study group in the original AOM trial and baseline sm levels. Outcome events owing to dental caries of their all primary teeth were followed from dental records up to 12 years. Survival of teeth caries free was determined by Kaplan-Meier method and analysed statistically by Wilcoxon testing.

RESULTS

Survival of primary teeth caries free of children with high sm levels in the sucrose group was significantly shorter compared with all other groups when followed until shedding.

CONCLUSIONS

Two months' regular exposure to sucrose was sufficient to induce dental caries in primary teeth of children with elevated sm levels at baseline.

A model for the analysis of caries occurrence in primary molar tooth surfaces

Recently methods of caries quantification in the primary dentition have moved away from summary 'whole mouth' measures at the individual level to methods based on generalised linear modelling (GLM) approaches or survival analysis approaches. However, GLM approaches based on logistic transformation fail to take into account the time-dependent process of tooth/surface survival to caries. There may also be practical difficulties associated with casting parametric survival-based approaches in a complex multilevel hierarchy and the selection of an optimal survival distribution, while non-parametric survival methods are not generally suitable for the assessment of supplementary information recorded on study participants. In the current investigation, a hybrid semi-parametric approach comprising elements of survival-based and GLM methodologies suitable for modelling of caries occurrence within fixed time periods is assessed, using an illustrative multilevel data set of caries occurrence in primary molars from a cohort study, with clustering of data assumed to occur at surface and tooth levels. Inferences of parameter significance were found to be consistent with previous parametric survival-based analyses of the same data set, with gender, socio-economic status, fluoridation status, tooth location, surface type and fluoridation status-surface type interaction significantly associated with caries occurrence. The appropriateness of the hierarchical structure facilitated by the hybrid approach was also confirmed. Hence the hybrid approach is proposed as a more appropriate alternative to primary caries modelling than non-parametric survival methods or other GLM-based models, and as a practical alternative to more rigorous survival-based methods unlikely to be fully accessible to most researchers.

Review and recommendations for zero-inflated count regression modeling of dental caries indices in epidemiological studies

Over the past 5-10 years, zero-inflated (ZI) count regression models have been increasingly applied to the analysis of dental caries indices (e.g. DMFT, dfms). The main reason for that is linked to the broad decline in children's caries experience, such that dmf and DMF indices more frequently generate low or even zero counts. This article specifically reviews the application of ZI Poisson and ZI negative binomial regression models to dental caries, with emphasis on the description of the models and the interpretation of fitted model results given the study goals. The review finds that interpretations provided in the published caries research are often imprecise or inadvertently misleading, particularly with respect to failing to discriminate between inference for the class of susceptible persons defined by such models and inference for the sampled population in terms of overall exposure effects. Recommendations are provided to enhance the use as well as the interpretation and reporting of results of count regression models when applied to epidemiological studies of dental caries.

Custo-efetividade da escovação dental supervisionada convencional e modificada na prevenção da cárie em molares permanentes de crianças de 5 anos de idade

O custo-efetividade de um programa modificado de escovação dental supervisionada foi comparado ao programa convencional. Participaram 284 crianças de 5 anos com, pelo menos, um molar permanente com a superfície oclusal irrompida/hígida. Nas unidades de controle, o programa convencional composto de atividade educativa com distribuição de escova e creme dental fluorado foi desenvolvido quatro vezes por ano. Nas unidades de teste, as crianças receberam também escovação profissional nas superfícies oclusais desses dentes, realizada por auxiliar de saúde bucal, empregando-se a técnica de escovação vestíbulo-lingual cinco vezes por ano. Cárie de esmalte/dentina foi registrada nas superfícies vestibular, oclusal e lingual dos molares permanentes durante 18 meses. A razão da densidade de incidência (RDI) foi estimada usando o modelo de regressão de Poisson, sendo 50% menor entre os meninos no grupo de teste (p = 0,016). O programa modificado custou R$ 3,04 por criança. A razão de custo-efetividade marginal foi de R$ 10,71 por lesão evitada entre os meninos. O programa modificado foi custo-efetivo nos meninos.

Effectiveness of the bucco-lingual technique within a school-based supervised toothbrushing program on preventing caries: a randomized controlled trial

Background

Supervised toothbrushing programs using fluoride dentifrice have reduced caries increment. However there is no information about the effectiveness of the professional cross-brushing technique within a community intervention. The aim was to assess if the bucco-lingual technique can increase the effectiveness of a school-based supervised toothbrushing program on preventing caries.

Methods

A randomized double-blinded controlled community intervention trial to be analyzed at an individual level was conducted in a Brazilian low-income fluoridated area. Six preschools were randomly assigned to the test and control groups and 284 five-year-old children presenting at least one permanent molar with emerged/sound occlusal surface participated. In control group, oral health education and dental plaque dying followed by toothbrushing with fluoride dentifrice supervised directly by a dental assistant, was developed four times per year. At the remaining school days the children brushed their teeth under indirect supervising of the teachers. In test group, children also underwent a professional cross-brushing on surfaces of first permanent molar rendered by a specially trained dental assistant five times per year. Enamel and dentin caries were recorded on buccal, occlusal and lingual surfaces of permanent molars during 18-month follow-up. Exposure time of surfaces was calculated and incidence density ratio was estimated using Poisson regression model.

Results

Difference of 21.6 lesions per 1,000 children between control and test groups was observed. Among boys whose caries risk was higher compared to girls, incidence density was 50% lower in test group (p = 0.016).

Conclusion

Modified program was effective among the boys. It is licit to project a relevant effect in a larger period suggesting in a broader population substantial reduction of dental care needs.

Trial registration

ISRCTN18548869.

Dental caries experience in young Australian Army recruits 2008

BACKGROUND

Recent studies have shown a substantial decline in caries experience in Australian Army recruits between 1996 and 2002-2003, and in Australian adults between 1987-1988 and 2004-2006. However, studies in children have reported an increasing trend in caries experience between 1998 and 2002. The aim of this study was to investigate caries experience in Australian Army recruits in 2008.

METHODS

A cross-sectional study involving 1084 Australian Army recruits was conducted from January to May 2008. Data were obtained from a clinical dental examination with bitewing radiographs, and a questionnaire elicited socio-demographic data and history on lifetime exposure to fluoridated drinking water.

RESULTS

Mean DMFT scores were 3.16, 4.08, 5.16 and 7.11 for recruits aged 17-20, 21-25, 26-30 and 31-35 years, respectively. Recruits with a lifetime exposure to fluoridated drinking water had a mean DMFT of 3.02, while recruits with no exposure had a mean DMFT of 3.87.

CONCLUSIONS

Caries experience in Australian Army recruits aged 17-25 years increased between 2002-2003 and 2008. Recruits with lifetime exposure to fluoridated drinking water had 25 per cent less caries experience compared with recruits who had no exposure to fluoridated drinking water after adjusting for the effects of age, gender, education and socio-economic status.

Randomized equivalence trial of intensive and semiannual applications of fluoride varnish in the primary dentition

For children in the primary dentition with high caries prevalence the standard semiannual application of fluoride varnish may not be successful in preventing tooth decay. Oftentimes this population is mobile and does not receive consistent preventive care. This trial tested whether an intensive fluoride 5% sodium varnish regimen (three applications/2 weeks) applied annually has an equivalent effect on caries progression in the primary dentition compared to single applications applied semiannually. This study was a randomized clinical trial with two treatment groups. All participants (n = 600; mean age +/- SD = 55.3 +/- 4.6 months) received three varnish applications (active varnish or placebo) at semiannual visits over 3 years. Once per year the intensive-treatment group received one set of three active treatments and three placebo treatments 6 months later, each time within 2 weeks. The standard group received one active and two placebo treatments every 6 months. Children were assessed clinically at baseline and 12, 24 and 36 months after the initiation of the study. The mean (SD) numbers of newly decayed primary tooth surfaces observed over 3 years were 9.8 (8.6) and 7.4 (7.7) in the intensive and standard groups, respectively. The adjusted rate ratio was 1.13 (95% CI = 0.94-1.37, p = 0.20). In conclusion, the trial failed to demonstrate clear evidence of a difference in efficacy. However, differences of up to 36% greater rates of caries in the intensive group could not be ruled out, thus equivalence of the treatments cannot be concluded.

Pattern of dental caries experience on tooth surfaces in an adult population

OBJECTIVES

To determine the pattern of caries experience across teeth and surfaces in an adult population depending on age and exposure to water fluoridation.

METHODS

Between November 2002 and March 2003 a total of 973 subjects aged 17-51 years had a clinical examination using visual and tactile criteria. Subsequent to this examination, bitewing radiographs were taken and viewed separately. Approximal and occlusal surfaces of molars and premolars were examined on the radiographs.

RESULTS

Caries experience was relatively low, with mean DMFS scores of 3.21, 5.12, 9.61, 13.04 and 24.35 for subjects aged 17-20, 21-25, 26-30, 31-35 and 36-51 years respectively. The first molar teeth had the greatest caries experience, and occlusal surfaces had more caries experience than approximal surfaces. Subjects with a lifetime exposure to fluoridated drinking water had significantly lower caries experience than those who had no exposure to fluoridated drinking water.

CONCLUSION

This study showed that caries prevalence, although relatively low in the study population, was found predominantly in occlusal surfaces, with an increasing prevalence in approximal surfaces of posterior teeth in older subjects. Subjects with a lifetime exposure to fluoridated drinking water had a lower level of caries experience than those with no exposure to fluoridated drinking water, and this was more noticeable in approximal surfaces than occlusal surfaces.

Multivariate survival analysis for the identification of factors associated with cavity formation in permanent first molars

This investigation used a multivariate survival model, which allowed for dependent caries data with possible censoring, to analyse the impact of timing of tooth emergence, gender and several reported oral hygiene and dietary habits on the incidence of cavity formation in permanent first molars (PFM) in young children. A 6-yr prospective oral health screening project in Flanders, Belgium, provided clinical and questionnaire data on 4,468 children. The results revealed that PFM in children who reported frequent brushing, who had no visible caries experience in the primary dentition, and who presented without occlusal plaque on the PFM had the best survival estimates. Girls had a higher incidence than boys of cavity formation in mandibular molars. The multiple survival analysis confirmed the major impact of the caries status of the deciduous dentition and self-reported oral hygiene habits on the incidence of cavities in permanent first molars.

The classic caries clinical trial: constraints and opportunities

The history of clinical trials would include events in 1747 on board the Salisbury, a British Navy vessel at sea with 12 seamen critically ill with scurvy. Involving these 12 sailors in a study, an officer on board by the name of Lind evaluated six potential treatments for scurvy, and rapidly reached the conclusion that daily consumption of citrus fruits returned the men fit for duty in approximately six days (Bull, 1959). The concept of experimental randomization was first developed by Sir R.A. Fisher (1925, 1926), and the method was introduced to medical research via a study of tuberculosis treatment by Amberson and co-workers (1931), who randomized 24 TB patients into two groups, one to receive the experimental therapy, the other serving as the control. Amberson et al. also incorporated the concept of blinding into their study. Sir Austin Bradford Hill codified and built on the principles of scientific experimentation developed by Fisher, and introduced the use of random numbers in the allocation of patients in the British Medical Research Council (1948) study of the effect of streptomycin in the treatment of tuberculosis (Daniels and Hill, 1952; Hill, 1952). The first applications of clinical trial methodology for testing interventions on dental, oral, and maxillofacial diseases and conditions are more difficult to determine. For dental caries prevention, however, Chilton and Fertig (1958) and Slack and Martin (1964) were certainly among the early caries clinical trial pioneers. As clinical trials have come into the mainstream of clinical research in medicine and dentistry, a great deal of developmental work has focused on their methodological enhancement. The most successful of these efforts have come from fruitful, ongoing collaborations among clinician investigators, biostatisticians, data management specialists, biomedical ethicists, and others with an academic interest in clinical trial design and utilization. During the past 25 years, the emergence of systematic reviews and the evidence-based medicine (EBM) movement have also contributed significantly to the increasing reliance on randomized clinical trial outcomes for the advancement of better clinical practice (Richards et al., 1997; Straus and Sackett, 1998; www.cochrane.org/cochrane/ccbroch.htm#BDL, 2002).

Updated comparison of the caries susceptibility of various morphological types of permanent teeth

In 1941, Klein and Palmer published a landmark study that ranked the relative susceptibility to dental caries of various morphological tooth types. Specifically, Klein and Palmer used a four-step approach, which included derivation of: (1) an eruption schedule; (2) posteruptive tooth age; (3) cumulative number of decayed, missing, and filled teeth and cumulative posteruptive tooth age; and (4) relative susceptibility values. Their study was conducted when dental caries prevalence and severity were generally high in the United States, prior to the introduction of preventive measures such as fluoride and dental sealants. This investigation used more recent data to assess whether declines in dental caries prevalence over time have been accompanied by changes in the relative susceptibility of permanent tooth types.

METHODS

The data source for this investigation was the oral examination component of the Third National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. This investigation used analytical methods to derive the relative susceptibility values that were identical with those used during the Klein and Palmer study. Full sample weights were used with SUDAAN so that the descriptive estimates would be representative of the US population. Analysis was limited to children aged 4 through 20 years.

RESULTS

The investigation found six categories of susceptibility, with molars being more susceptible than incisors, canines, or premolars. In general, susceptibility values declined since the Klein and Palmer study, providing additional evidence for a caries decline in the United States. First and second molar susceptibility values from the NHANES III data, however, intersected with those of Klein and Palmer, suggesting that factors specific to the molars, such as the selective use of dental sealants on these teeth, might be playing an additional role.

CONCLUSIONS

Future research should explore factors that might explain the changes in relative susceptibility values over time.

Longitudinal validation of a risk calculator for periodontal disease

BACKGROUND

Risk assessment and utilization of the results are important components of prevention, diagnosis and treatment of periodontal diseases. Risk assessment is relatively new to dentistry. Currently risk is assessed by subjective evaluation and results vary widely among clinicians. We have developed a computer-based risk assessment tool, the Periodontal Risk Calculator (PRC), for objective, quantitative assessment of risk. The purpose of the study reported here was to evaluate the accuracy and validity of this tool.

METHODS

Clinical records and radiographs of 523 subjects enrolled in the VA Dental Longitudinal Study of Oral Health and Disease, covering a period of 15 years, were used. Information from baseline examinations was entered into the risk calculator and a risk score on a scale of l-5 for periodontal deterioration was calculated for each subject. Actual periodontal status in terms of alveolar bone loss determined using digitized radiographs, and tooth loss determined from the clinical records, was assessed at years 3, 9 and 15. The strength of the association between risk prediction and actual outcome was determined statistically.

RESULTS

The risk scores were strong predictors of future periodontal status measured as worsening severity and extent of alveolar bone loss and tooth loss, especially loss of periodontally affected teeth. Over the entire 15-year period, risk scores consistently ranked groups from least to most bone loss and tooth loss. Risk groups differed greatly from one another. By year 3, the incidence rate of bone loss of group 5 was 3.7-fold greater than for group 2, and by year 15, the loss of periodontally affected teeth was 22.7-fold greater than for group 2 (p<0.001). By year 15, 83.7% of subjects in risk group 5 had lost one or more periodontally affected teeth compared to 20.2% of subjects in group 2.

CONCLUSIONS

Risk scores calculated using the PRC and information gathered during a standard periodontal examination predict future periodontal status with a high level of accuracy and validity. Use of the risk assessment tool over time may be expected to result in more uniform and accurate periodontal clinical decision-making, improved oral health, reduction in the need for complex therapy and reduction in health-care cost.

Application of survival analysis to carious lesion transitions in intervention trials

OBJECTIVE

To demonstrate the usefulness of a survival-time regression model for the analysis of data from two 3-year trials of the caries-preventive effect of sugar-substituted chewing gums and fluoride toothpaste, carried out among 892 Lithuanian children.

METHODS

A caries onset was defined as a transition from sound to carious and a caries recovery was defined as a transition from carious to sound. The time at risk for each type of transition was calculated. Using an exponential survival-time regression model, the hazard ratios for the covariates experimental group (control, sugar substitute, fluoride), age, gender, surface type and posteruptive surface age was estimated. This analysis was repeated using two alternative definitions of the caries transitions.

RESULTS

The analyses confirmed that caries rates are higher in occlusal surfaces, and that posteruptive surface age influences caries rates. Moreover, it also confirmed that fluoride affects the outcome of ongoing caries activity more than the initiation of caries.

CONCLUSIONS

Survival-time analysis of caries transitions allows for the extraction of much more information from caries trials than does the traditional DMF-based analysis, and traditional DMF incremental values may easily be derived from the models.

Exposure to fluoridated drinking water and dental caries experience in Australian army recruits, 1996

OBJECTIVES

The purpose of this study was to investigate a group of young Australian adults to determine their caries experience and measure associations between caries experience and age, gender, socioeconomic status, education level and lifetime exposure to fluoridated water.

METHODS

This was achieved through a cross-sectional study involving Australian Army recruits seen for their initial dental examination on enlistment into the Australian Army. A total of 499 recruits had a clinical examination with the aid of bitewing radiographs and an orthopantomograph (OPG). Sociodemographic and fluoride exposure data were obtained via a questionnaire.

RESULTS

This study showed that subjects with a lifetime exposure to fluoridated water reported a 23% lower level of caries experience than subjects with no exposure to fluoridated water, with a greater effect on proximal surfaces compared to smooth and occlusal surfaces. Female subjects had a level of caries experience 25% higher than male subjects, while subjects from the lowest socioeconomic background had a level of caries experience 89% times greater than subjects from the highest socioeconomic group.

CONCLUSIONS

Although it is not possible to directly establish a causal relationship from a cross-sectional study such as this, the results from this study show a dose-response relationship which suggests that there are benefits of lifetime exposure to fluoridated drinking water through young adulthood.

Validity and accuracy of a risk calculator in predicting periodontal disease

BACKGROUND

Research on the pathobiology of periodontal diseases has increased our knowledge of these diseases and is fostering a transition from the repair model to the medical or wellness model of periodontal care. Successful application of the wellness model depends on an accurate and valid assessment of disease risk, as well as institution of risk reduction as an integral part of prevention and treatment. A computer-based risk assessment tool has been developed.

METHODS

The authors reviewed clinical records and radiographs of 523 subjects enrolled in the Veterans Affairs Dental Longitudinal Study to evaluate the validity of risk prediction using the computer-based tool. Data from baseline examinations was entered into the risk calculator, and a risk score on a scale from 1 (lowest risk) to 5 (highest risk) was calculated for each subject to predict periodontal deterioration. Actual periodontal status in terms of alveolar bone loss (determined from digitized radiographs) and tooth loss (determined from clinical records) was assessed at years 3, 9 and 15. The authors determined the statistical strength of the association between risk prediction and actual outcome.

RESULTS

The risk scores were strong predictors of periodontal status, as measured by alveolar bone loss and loss of periodontally affected teeth. Risk scores consistently ranked risk score groups from least to most bone loss and tooth loss. Compared with a risk score of 2, the relative risk of tooth loss was 3.2 for a risk score of 3, 4.5 for a risk score of 4 and 10.6 for a risk score of 5.

CONCLUSIONS AND PRACTICE IMPLICATIONS

Use of the risk assessment tool over time may result in more uniform and accurate periodontal clinical decision-making, improved oral health, reduction in the need for complex therapy, reduction in health care costs and a hastening of the transition from a repair model to a wellness model of care.

A re-analysis of a caries clinical trial by survival analysis

The decline in caries prevalence, the increases in the level of fluoride exposure, and the lack of placebo control subjects have complicated caries clinical trials in recent times. There has been a substantial increase in the numbers of subjects required for the detection of statistically significant differences between dental products, and hence, the cost of these trials has grown enormously. This study uses a new statistical approach to the analysis of the data from these trials with the ultimate aim of providing a more sensitive method of analysis. The new approach uses survival analysis, where the outcome measure is the survival time of an individual tooth surface. It exploits recent developments in the analysis of clustered survival data where survival times within the same cluster or subject are correlated. To illustrate, the new method of analysis was used for the North Wales, UK, caries clinical trial. It is concluded that survival analysis uses most of the data available in a caries clinical trial, an outcome measure that is easily understood and may lead to a more sensitive method of analysis.

Methodological issues in longitudinal epidemiologic studies of dental caries

As longitudinal epidemiologic studies of dental caries address increasingly complex research questions, approaches to analysis of data from those studies have become more sophisticated. This review examines methods available for analyzing and reporting data from such studies. Traditional analytic methods utilize the DMFS increment as the outcome measure in longitudinal studies of caries. However, two other outcome measures may be needed to address some research issues: cumulative incidence, which quantifies caries risk; and incidence density, which quantifies caries rate. Four major analytic decisions have to be addressed when computing DMFS increment: examiner misclassification ("reversals"), teeth lost due to caries, findings from more than two examinations, and multiple events such as caries initiation and progression. We present a uniform approach for enumerating caries events that permits the same analytic decisions made in calculating DMFS increment to be applied to cumulative incidence and incidence density calculations. In view of the variety of analytic decisions that must be made when enumerating events in longitudinal studies of caries, authors should specify how all potential changes in caries status were handled. Furthermore, if a study uses more than one outcome measure, the same decisions for enumerating events should be used when computing those measures.

The optimum time to initiate habitual xylitol gum-chewing for obtaining long-term caries prevention

Habitual xylitol gum-chewing may have a long-term preventive effect by reducing the caries risk for several years after the habitual chewing has ended. The goal of this report was (1) to determine if sorbitol and sorbitol/xylitol mixtures provide a long-term benefit, and (2) to determine which teeth benefit most from two-year habitual gum-chewing - those erupting before, during, or after habitual gum-chewing. Children, on average 6 years old, chewed gums sweetened with xylitol, sorbitol, or xylitol/sorbitol mixtures. There was a "no-gum" control group. Five years after the two-year program of habitual gum-chewing ended, 288 children were re-examined. Compared with the no-gum group, sorbitol gums had no significant long-term effect (relative risk [RR], 0.65; 95% confidence interval [c.i.], 0.39 to 1.07; p < 0.18). Xylitol gum and, to a lesser extent, xylitol/sorbitol gum had a long-term preventive effect. During the 5 years after habitual gum-chewing ended, xylitol gums reduced the caries risk 59% (RR, 0.41; 95% c.i., 0.23 to 0.75; p < 0.0034). Xylitol-sorbitol gums reduced the caries risk 44% (RR, 0.56; 95% c.i., 0.36 to 0.89; p < 0.02). The long-term caries risk reduction associated with xylitol strongly depended on when teeth erupted (p < 0.02). Teeth that erupted after 1 year of gum-chewing or after the two-year habitual gum use ended had long-term caries risk reductions of 93% (p < 0.0054) and 88% (p < 0.0004), respectively. Teeth that erupted before the gum-chewing started had no significant long-term prevention (p < 0.30). We concluded that for long-term caries-preventive effects to be maximized, habitual xylitol gum-chewing should be started at least one year before permanent teeth erupt.

Caries prediction: a review of the literature

For over a decade researchers have been looking for the formula that will allow caries prediction. The purpose of this summary is to review recent multifactorial prediction models for adults and children with the aim of identifying the most successful and consistent methods. Conclusions from this review include the following: Clinical variables, especially past caries experience, are confirmed as the most significant predictors of future caries development. The status of the most recently erupted/exposed surface is the most successful measure of past caries experience. Bacterial levels are included in the most accurate prediction models. Sociodemographic variables are most important to caries prediction models for young children and older adults.

Forty-five-year tooth survival probabilities among men in Oslo, Norway

Changes in tooth survival probabilities over a person's lifetime have remained largely unexplored. The goal of this study was to evaluate changes in the 45-year tooth survival probabilities in a cohort of 565 Norwegian males who were examined in 1969 as young adults, and followed up into mid-life (examination years and sample sizes (n): 1971 (n = 381), 1973 (n = 292), 1975 (n = 245), 1981 (n = 228), 1988 (n = 202), and 1995 (n = 223). The results indicated that the tooth survival probabilities varied considerably both (i) among teeth within individuals, and (ii) over time. The 45-year survival probabilities for the 28 teeth fell into the following ranges: larger than 95% for incisors and cuspids; between 84% and 92% for premolars; and between 59% and 96% for molars. Over the first 4 post-eruptive decades, the tooth mortality risks (excluding orthodontic extractions) were: 1st decade, 2.0% (from 1.7 to 2.4%); 2nd decade, 0.2% (from 0.1 to 0.4%); 3rd decade, 0.6% (from 0.4 to 0.8%); and 4th decade, 1.1% (from 0.8 to 1.5%). The tooth mortality risks in the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th decades were probably somewhat underestimated (due to dropout bias), suggesting that the true underlying tooth mortality hazard function may have been V-shaped. The conclusions were that the tooth mortality hazard during the first 4 post-eruptive decades was bathtub-shaped and that it varied considerably among teeth within individuals.

Factors associated with caries incidence in an elderly population

The purpose of this paper was to identify baseline factors associated with future caries development in older adults (age 60+) during a 3-year study period. Poisson regression analysis was used to determine the association between potential risk factors and disease incidence. The significant factors associated with high coronal caries incidence rates were high baseline root DMFS (P<0.001), high counts of mutans streptococci and lactobacilli (P=0.036), male gender (P=0.007), and Asian ethnicity (P=0.002). These factors had small to moderate effects on incidence rates, with relative risk values of approximately 1.2 to 2. The significant factors associated with higher disease incidence on root surfaces were baseline coronal DMFS (marginally significant, P=0.078), high bacterial counts (P=0.002), and Asian ethnicity (P=0.009). The predictive value of the models was low for both coronal and root caries. This result may be because this population had a higher than usual caries incidence rate, making discrimination among these caries-active individuals difficult. The current study affirmed the value of baseline DMFS and salivary variables to modeling caries incidence and introduced ethnicity as a variable useful for the study of dental caries in older adults.

A 5-year study of attachment loss in community-dwelling older adults: incidence density

This is the second of three papers that present trends in attachment loss and tooth loss over a 5-yr period in a population of community-dwelling elderly black and whites. The first paper in this series showed that in addition to subject attrition during the 5 yr of the study, teeth also were lost. This loss of subjects and teeth resulted in trends that were not always consistent over time, because people were lost from the study and teeth with more active and advanced periodontal disease were more likely to be lost. In these instances, the incidence density (time-to-event) analytic strategy is useful. Incidence density is the average rate of occurrence for a fixed follow-up period. In 1988, the University of North Carolina School of Dentistry initiated the Piedmont 65+ Dental Study, which was designed to elicit 800 dentate respondents in the 5-county area who were examined again at 18, 36 and 60 months. Our findings indicated that for every 1000 sites followed for 1 yr in this population, 20.6 sites will experience attachment loss of 3+mm. Incidence densities varied greatly by subgroup, indicating that certain characteristics predispose sites for attachment loss. A multivariate logistic regression model indicated that people who are smokers, Porphyromonas gingivalis positive, have 5 or more missing teeth, are not high school graduates, and have not had a dental visit in the last 5 yr are at higher risk of attachment loss. Posterior teeth and mesiobuccal sites are at higher risk. We conclude that incidence density analyses are useful for longitudinal periodontal data and we illustrate the use of incidence density rates to plan clinical trials.

Design and implementation of clinical trials of antimicrobial drugs and devices used in periodontal disease treatment

The design and implementation of clinical trials (CTs) carried out to evaluate antimicrobial and anti-infective drugs and devices are one of the most difficult challenges in contemporary periodontal research and product development. The overwhelming amount of evidence which has established a microbial etiology for periodontitis is the basis for developing and testing antimicrobial treatments. Well-designed antimicrobial CTs start with a carefully crafted hypothesis and a protocol which explicitly integrates the requirements of the patient, the clinician, the sponsor, and regulatory authorities. Surrogate variables for effectiveness must be clinically relevant, scientifically sound, and statistically valid. Currently, clinical attachment level measurements and alveolar bone assessments are accepted as proof of effectiveness. Indication and claim support of the antimicrobial product guide the design and implementation of the CT. Adverse microbiologic consequences, such as lack of antimicrobial susceptibility, wrong spectrum, incorrect dosage, non-compliance, and drug interference, must be monitored. Successful CTs balance a large group of variables used to screen, randomize, and assign subjects to experimental and control groups to ensure that prognostic and risk factors are properly accounted for.

Analytic approaches to longitudinal caries data in adults

The objective of this paper is to consider current methods for analyzing longitudinal caries data in adults. To illustrate these methods, we used data from the Piedmont dental study, a prospective investigation of the oral health of older adults. Longitudinal dental data sets comprise repeated observations of an outcome (often clustered within randomly selected primary sampling units), and a set of covariates for each of many subjects, in whom clustering can occur as a result of measuring teeth, or surfaces, within people. One objective of statistical analysis is to predict the outcome variable as a function of the covariates, while accounting for the correlation among the repeated observations for a given subject and the effect of clustering within subjects, as well as between subjects within primary sampling units, such as communities, schools, hospitals, or other such units. We considered two statistical approaches: generalized estimating equations and survey regression models. We also examined the impact of varying diagnostic criteria for caries estimation between epidemiologists and clinicians. One approach is to perform the usual time(x) exam score minus time0 score analysis for the baseline and final examinations, while an alternative is to analyze trends among interim examinations. Finally, because caries studies in which the onset of the disease is the endpoint face the problem of censoring due to subject attrition and/or tooth loss, we recommend the incidence density (time-to-event) analytic strategy to address this problem. This approach was found to be most suitable for longitudinal studies of older adults since it accounts for the time each surface remains at risk for the event of interest, making use of interim exam data until the moment the subject and/or the tooth are no longer available for examination. We also included a discussion on biases that occur upon application of the usual methods of estimating caries experience in missing teeth and crowns, which often ignore the classification error in the estimation. We propose a method to adjust for misclassification of the M-component of the DMFS index. In the case where one can observe true reversals or remineralization of caries lesions, we recommend an adjustment formula to account for reversals that are most likely due to examiner misclassification. We provide examples to demonstrate the applicability of the methods for covariates subject to outcome misclassification.

Improved clinical decision making using the evidence-based approach

Clinical experience, technical ability, and intuition are indispensable but no longer sufficient as the sole skills necessary to provide the best outcomes from periodontal and implant treatment. This article describes the evidence-based approach, a comprehensive and rigorous literature evaluation process applied by scientists and clinicians. The methodology was used by the participants in The American Academy of Periodontology World Workshop to assess the evidentiary status of periodontal and implant treatment. The major goal of using the evidence-based approach was to improve treatment decisions by increasing the strength of the inference that practitioners can derive from the base of knowledge contained within the literature.

Timing of first restorations before, during, and after a preventive xylitol trial

An independent longitudinal retrospective analysis of the timing, number, and cost of tooth restorations was conducted for all subjects (n = 313) in the age cohort of a municipal health center, in which two consecutive field trials of up to 3 years on the caries-preventive effect of the use of xylitol chewing gum were conducted (Ylivieska study, 1982-85). A computer program calculated the post-eruptive timing of the first restorations on each permanent tooth surface, and survival analysis methods were applied before, during, and after the trials. The cost of restorations was then calculated. The total number of new restored surfaces was 4.0 per child in the xylitol group and 9.3 in the controls during the decade after onset of the trial. The number of restorations on the occlusal surfaces of the first molars leveled off at 40-50% in the xylitol group and at about 60-70% in the control group. Plateaus for the second molars were at 30-40% and 60-70%, respectively. The time lag for the first restorations was longer in the xylitol group for the proximal and other smooth surfaces. A marked difference in favor of the xylitol group was observed in the proximal surfaces of the upper incisors (for example, the mesial surface of the upper mesial incisor for girls: log-rank chi-square = 11.1, p < 0.001). The preventive effect was most pronounced in teeth that had erupted during the trial. This analysis indicated that participation of subjects in the xylitol chewing gum trials resulted in a significant reduction in the number of first restorations and hence in costs during the decade after the onset of gum use.