Triage Procedures for Critical Care Resource Allocation During Scarcity

Importance

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many US states issued or revised pandemic preparedness plans guiding allocation of critical care resources during crises. State plans vary in the factors used to triage patients and have faced criticism from advocacy groups due to the potential for discrimination.

Objective

To analyze the role of comorbidities and long-term prognosis in state triage procedures.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This cross-sectional study used data gathered from parallel internet searches for state-endorsed pandemic preparedness plans for the 50 US states, District of Columbia, and Puerto Rico (hereafter referred to as states), which were conducted between November 25, 2021, and June 16, 2023. Plans available on June 16, 2023, that provided step-by-step instructions for triaging critically ill patients were categorized for use of comorbidities and prognostication.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Prevalence and contents of lists of comorbidities and their stated function in triage and instructions to predict duration of postdischarge survival.

Results

Overall, 32 state-promulgated pandemic preparedness plans included triage procedures specific enough to guide triage in clinical practice. Twenty of these (63%) included lists of comorbidities that excluded (11 of 20 [55%]) or deprioritized (8 of 20 [40%]) patients during triage; one state's list was formulated to resolve ties between patients with equal triage scores. Most states with triage procedures (21 of 32 [66%]) considered predicted survival beyond hospital discharge. These states proposed different prognostic time horizons; 15 of 21 (71%) were numeric (ranging from 6 months to 5 years after hospital discharge), with the remaining 6 (29%) using descriptive terms, such as long-term.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this cross-sectional study of state-promulgated critical care triage policies, most plans restricted access to scarce critical care resources for patients with listed comorbidities and/or for patients with less-than-average expected postdischarge survival. This analysis raises concerns about access to care during a public health crisis for populations with high burdens of chronic illness, such as individuals with disabilities and minoritized racial and ethnic groups.

Validation of Modified Models of Objective Prognostic Score in Patients With Advanced Cancer

Background: The objective prognostic score (OPS) needs to be modified to reflect practical palliative care circumstances. Objectives: We aimed to validate modified models of OPS with few or no laboratory tests for patients with advanced cancer. Design: An observational study was performed. Setting/Subjects: A secondary analysis of an international, multicenter cohort study of patients in East Asia was performed. The subjects were inpatients with advanced cancer in the palliative care unit. Measurements: We developed two modified OPS (mOPS) models to predict two-week survival: mOPS-A consisted of two symptoms, two objective signs, and three laboratory results, while mOPS-B consisted of three symptoms, two signs, and no laboratory data. We compared the accuracy of the prognostic models using sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Calibration plots for two-week survival and net reclassification indices (NRIs) were compared for the two models. Survival differences between higher and lower score groups of each model were identified by the log-rank test. Results: We included a total of 1796 subjects having median survival of 19.0 days. We found that mOPS-A had higher specificity (0.805-0.836) and higher AUROCs (0.791-0.797). In contrast, mOPS-B showed higher sensitivity (0.721-0.725) and acceptable AUROCs (0.740-0.751) for prediction of two-week survival. Two mOPSs showed good concordance in calibration plots. Considering NRIs, replacing the original OPS with mOPSs improved overall reclassification (absolute NRI: 0.47-4.15%). Higher score groups of mOPS-A and mOPS-B showed poorer survival than those of lower score groups (p < 0.001). Conclusions: mOPSs used reduced laboratory data and had relatively good accuracy for predicting survival in advanced cancer patients receiving palliative care.

Clinicians' Prediction of Survival and Prognostic Confidence in Patients with Advanced Cancer in Three East Asian Countries

Background: Little is known about accuracy and confidence of clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS) in East-Asian countries. Objective: We aimed to examine accuracy of CPS for 7-, 21-, and 42-day survival in palliative inpatients and its association with prognostic confidence. Design: An international prospective cohort study in Japan (JP), Korea (KR), and Taiwan (TW). Setting/Subjects: Subjects were inpatients with advanced cancer admitted to 37 palliative care units in three countries. Measurements: Discrimination of CPS was investigated through sensitivity, specificity, overall accuracy, and area under the receiver operating characteristics curves (AUROCs) according to 7-, 21-, and 42-day survival. The accuracies of CPS were compared with those of Performance Status-based Palliative Prognostic Index (PS-PPI). Clinicians were instructed to rate confidence level on a 0-10-point scale. Results: A total of 2571 patients were analyzed. The specificity was highest at 93.2-100.0% for the 7-day CPS, and sensitivity was highest at 71.5-86.8% for the 42-day CPS. The AUROCs of the seven-day CPS were 0.88, 0.94, and 0.89, while those of PS-PPI were 0.77, 0.69, and 0.69 for JP, KR, and TW, respectively. As for 42-day prediction, sensitivities of PS-PPI were higher than those of CPS. Clinicians' confidence was strongly associated with the accuracy of prediction in all three countries (all p-values <0.01). Conclusions: CPS accuracies were highest (0.88-0.94) for the seven-day survival prediction. CPS was more accurate than PS-PPI in all timeframe prediction except 42-day prediction in KR. Prognostic confidence was significantly associated with the accuracy of CPS.

Dementia's Unique Burden: Function and Health Care in the Last 4 Years of Life

BACKGROUND

Dementia is a terminal illness marked by progressive cognitive decline. This study characterized trajectories of functional status and health care use for people with and without dementia at the end of their life.

METHODS

We used the Health and Retirement Study linked with Medicare claims to generate a series of generalized linear models. Models predicted functional status and health care use for decedents with and without dementia during each month in the last 4 years of life (48 months).

RESULTS

People with dementia have high, sustained functional impairments during the entire last 4 years of life. People with dementia have the same predicted average activities of daily living score (1.92) at 17 months before death (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.857, 1.989) as individuals without dementia at 6 months before death (95% CI: 1.842, 1.991). Dementia was associated with significantly less hospice during the final 3 months of life, with a 12.5% (95% CI: 11.046, 13.906) likelihood of hospice in the last month of life with dementia versus 17.3% (95% CI: 15.573, 18.982) without dementia. Dementia was also associated with less durable medical equipment (p < .001), less home health care (p < .005), and fewer office visits (p < .001). There were not significant differences in likelihood of hospitalization in the last 48 months with or without dementia.

CONCLUSIONS

People with dementia can functionally appear to be at end of life (EOL) for years before their death. Simultaneously, they receive less health care, particularly home health and hospice, in their last months. Models of care that target people with dementia should consider the unique and sustained burden of dementia at EOL.

The Surprise Question as a Trigger for Primary Palliative Care Interventions for Children with Advanced Heart Disease

There is significant uncertainty in describing prognosis and a lack of reliable entry criteria for palliative care studies in children with advanced heart disease (AHD). This study evaluates the utility of the surprise question-"Would you be surprised if this child died within the next year?"-to predict one-year mortality in children with AHD and assess its utility as entry criteria for future trials. This is a prospective cohort study of physicians and nurses caring for children (1 month-19 years) with AHD hospitalized ≥ 7 days. AHD was defined as single ventricle physiology, pulmonary vein stenosis or pulmonary hypertension, or any cardiac diagnosis with signs of advanced disease. Primary physicians were asked the surprise question and medical record review was performed. Forty-nine physicians responded to the surprise question for 152 patients. Physicians responded "No, I would not be surprised if this patient died" for 54 (36%) patients, 20 (37%) of whom died within 1 year, predicting one-year mortality with 77% sensitivity, 73% specificity, 37% positive predictive value, and 94% negative predictive value. Patients who received a "No" response had an increased 1-year risk of death (hazard ratio 7.25, p < 0.001). Physician years of experience, subspecialty, and self-rated competency were not associated with the accuracy of the surprise question. The surprise question offers promise as a bedside screening tool to identify children with AHD at high risk for mortality and help physicians identify patients who may benefit from palliative care and advance care planning discussions.

Comparison of Objective Prognostic Score and Palliative Prognostic Score performance in inpatients with advanced cancer in Japan and Korea

OBJECTIVE

Accurate prognostication is important for patients and their families to prepare for the end of life. Objective Prognostic Score (OPS) is an easy-to-use tool that does not require the clinicians' prediction of survival (CPS), whereas Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP) needs CPS. Thus, inexperienced clinicians may hesitate to use PaP. We aimed to evaluate the accuracy of OPS compared with PaP in inpatients in palliative care units (PCUs) in three East Asian countries.

METHOD

This study was a secondary analysis of a cross-cultural, multicenter cohort study. We enrolled inpatients with far-advanced cancer in PCUs in Japan, Korea, and Taiwan from 2017 to 2018. We calculated the area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curve to compare the accuracy of OPS and PaP.

RESULTS

A total of 1,628 inpatients in 33 PCUs in Japan and Korea were analyzed. OPS and PaP were calculated in 71.7% of the Japanese patients and 80.0% of the Korean patients. In Taiwan, PaP was calculated for 81.6% of the patients. The AUROC for 3-week survival was 0.74 for OPS in Japan, 0.68 for OPS in Korea, 0.80 for PaP in Japan, and 0.73 for PaP in Korea. The AUROC for 30-day survival was 0.70 for OPS in Japan, 0.71 for OPS in Korea, 0.79 for PaP in Japan, and 0.74 for PaP in Korea.

SIGNIFICANCE OF RESULTS

Both OPS and PaP showed good performance in Japan and Korea. Compared with PaP, OPS could be more useful for inexperienced physicians who hesitate to estimate CPS.

Comparing the performance of the palliative prognostic (PaP) score with clinical predictions of survival: A systematic review

BACKGROUND

In patients with advanced cancer, prognosis is usually determined using clinicians' predictions of survival (CPS). The palliative prognostic (PaP) score is a prognostic algorithm that was developed to predict survival in patients with advanced cancer. The score categorises patients into three risk groups in accordance with their probability of surviving for 30 days. The relative accuracy of PaP and CPS is unclear.

DESIGN

This was a systematic review of MEDLINE, Embase, AMED, CINAHL Plus and the Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews and Trials from inception up to June 2021. The inclusion criteria were studies in adults with advanced cancer reporting data on performance of both PaP and CPS. Data were extracted on accuracy of prognoses and where available on discrimination (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve or C-index) and/or diagnostic performance (sensitivity, specificity).

RESULTS

Eleven studies were included. One study reported a direct comparison between PaP risk groups and equivalent risk groups defined by CPS and found that PaP was as accurate as CPS. Five studies reported discrimination of PaP as a continuous total score (rather than using the previously validated risk categories) and reported C-statistics that ranged from 0.64 (95% confidence interval [CI] 0.54, 0.74) up to 0.90 (95% CI 0.87, 0.92). Other studies compared PaP against CPS using non-equivalent metrics (e.g. comparing probability estimates against length of survival estimates).

CONCLUSIONS

PaP risk categories and CPS are equally able to discriminate between patients with different survival probabilities. Total PaP scores show good discrimination between patients in accordance with their length of survival. The role of PaP in clinical practice still needs to be defined.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO (CRD42021241074, 5th March 2021).

Dynamic prediction and analysis based on restricted mean survival time in survival analysis with nonproportional hazards

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE

In the process of clinical diagnosis and treatment, the restricted mean survival time (RMST), which reflects the life expectancy of patients up to a specified time, can be used as an appropriate outcome measure. However, the RMST only calculates the mean survival time of patients within a period of time after the start of follow-up and may not accurately portray the change in a patient's life expectancy over time.

METHODS

The life expectancy can be adjusted for the time the patient has already survived and defined as the conditional restricted mean survival time (cRMST). A dynamic RMST model based on the cRMST can be established by incorporating time-dependent covariates and covariates with time-varying effects. We analyzed data from a study of primary biliary cirrhosis (PBC) to illustrate the use of the dynamic RMST model, and a simulation study was designed to test the advantages of the proposed approach. The predictive performance was evaluated using the C-index and the prediction error.

RESULTS

Considering both the example results and the simulation results, the proposed dynamic RMST model, which can explore the dynamic effects of prognostic factors on survival time, has better predictive performance than the RMST model. Three PBC patient examples were used to illustrate how the predicted cRMST changed at different prediction times during follow-up.

CONCLUSIONS

The use of the dynamic RMST model based on the cRMST allows for the optimization of evidence-based decision-making by updating personalized dynamic life expectancy for patients.

Validation of the Simplified Palliative Prognostic Index to Predict Survival for Advanced Cancer Patients in Home Hospice Setting

Background

The simplified Palliative Prognostic Index (sPPI) substitutes a single item from the Communication Capacity Scale (CCS) for the delirium item of the original PPI. This study aimed to examine the validity of the sPPI for patients with advanced cancer in a home-based hospice care setting.

Methods

This study included 75 patients with advanced cancer who received home-based hospice care. We used medical records maintained by professional hospice nurses who had visited the patients in their homes. Based on their sPPI score, patients were divided into three groups—A (<4), B (≥4 and <6), and C (≥6)—to compare survival. Further, we investigated the sPPI’s accuracy using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and sensitivity and specificity for 3- and 6-week survival. We used three sPPIs including different substitutions for the delirium item (two methods using the CCS and one using the Korean Nursing Delirium Screening Scale).

Results

The median survival was 60–61 days for group A, 27–30 days for group B, and 12–16 days for group C. The difference in survival was significant (P<0.05). The AUC was 0.814–0.867 for 3-week survival and 0.736–0.779 for 6-week survival. For 3- and 6-week survival, prognostic prediction showed sensitivities of 76.2%–90.9% and 76.3%–86.8%, and specificities of 64.2%–88.7% and 51.4%–70.3%, respectively.

Conclusion

The sPPI, which is measured by professional hospice nurses, has acceptable validity to predict survival for patients with advanced cancer in a home hospice setting in South Korea.

Prognostic tools for survival prediction in advanced cancer patients: A systematic review

Survival prediction for palliative cancer patients by physicians is often optimistic. Patients with a very short life expectancy (<4 weeks) may not benefit from radiation therapy (RT), as the time to maximal symptom relief after treatment can take 4-6 weeks. We aimed to identify a prognostic tool (or tools) to predict survival of less than 4 weeks and less than 3 months in patients with advanced cancer to guide the choice of radiation dose and fractionation. We searched Embase, Medline (EBSCOhost) and CINAHL (EBSCOhost) clinical databases for literature published between January 2008 and June 2018. Seventeen studies met the inclusion criteria and were included in the review. Prediction accuracy at less than 4 weeks and less than 3 months were compared across the prognostic tools. Reporting of prediction accuracy among the different studies was not consistent: the Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP), Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) and Number of Risk Factors (NRF) best-predicted survival duration of less than 4 weeks. The PPI, performance status with Palliative Prognostic Index (PS-PPI), NRF and Survival Prediction Score (SPS) may predict 3-month survival. We recommend PPI and PaP tools to assess the likelihood of a patient surviving less than 4 weeks. If predicted to survive longer and RT is justified, the NRF tool could be used to determine survival probability less than 3 months which can then help clinicians select dose and fractionation. Future research is needed to verify the reliability of survival prediction using these prognostic tools in a radiation oncology setting.

NECPAL prognostic tool: a palliative medicine retrospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To develop and validate a prognostic model to assess mortality risk at 24 months in patients with advanced chronic conditions.

METHODS

Retrospective design based on a previous population cohort study with 789 adults who were identified with the surprise question and NECPAL tool from primary and intermediate care centres, nursing homes and one acute hospital of Spain. A Cox regression model was used to derive a mortality predictive model based on patients' age and six previously selected NECPAL prognostic factors (palliative care need identified by healthcare professionals, functional decline, nutritional decline, multimorbidity, use of resources, disease-specific criteria of severity/progression). Patients were split into derivation/validation cohorts, and four steps were followed: descriptive analysis, predictors' assessment, model estimation and model assessment.

RESULTS

All predictive variables were independently associated with increased risk of mortality at 24 months. Performance model including age was good; discrimination power by area under the curve (AUC) was 0.72/0.67 in the derivation/validation cohorts, and correlation between expected and observed (E/O) mortality ratio was 0.74/0.70. The model showed similar performance across settings (AUC 0.65-0.74, E/O 1.00-1.01), the best performance in oncological patients (AUC 0.78, E/O 0.76) and the worst in dementia patients (AUC 0.58, E/O 0.85). Based on the number of factors affected, three prognostic stages with significant differences and a median survival of 38, 17.2 and 3.6 months (p<0.001) were defined.

CONCLUSION

The NECPAL prognostic tool is accurate and eventually useful at the clinical practice. Stratification in risk groups may enable early intervention and enhance policy-making and service planning.

The Accuracy of Imminent Death Diagnosis in a Palliative Care Setting

Background Prognostication is important for patients and their family members as they need this information for the preparation and planning of their future. It is important for physicians as they desire to be accurate in their prognostication skills in order to plan and deliver better care to their patients; healthcare managers require it as they need this information for planning and distribution of hospital resources. We intended to study the accuracy of imminent death diagnosis (IDD) in a palliative care setting in all patients who died at the Palliative Care Unit (PCU) at King Fahad Medical City between December 2012 and December 2014. Methods We conducted a retrospective chart review of all consecutive patients who died in the PCU between 2012 and 2014. We studied the percentage of patients who were diagnosed with imminent death. We further looked at the accuracy of IDD by calculating the time between the diagnosis of imminent death and death. The primary outcomes were the percentage of patients who had an IDD and the proportion of those who died within 14 days of IDD. The secondary outcomes were the difference between patients who die after IDD and patients who die without imminent death diagnosis (NIDD) at the end of life interventions. Results During the period from December 2012 until December 2014, 48 patients died in the PCU. The majority of 28/48 (58%) died with IDD. However, 20/48 (42%) died NIDD. In the IDD group, 25/28 (89.3%) died within 14 days of diagnosis while 3/28 (10.3%) died after 14 days Conclusions IDD is a critical skill for palliative care physicians to make an advance care plan. Our study showed a high degree of accuracy of prediction of fourteen-day mortality in PCU patients. The median survival was two days. However, a large proportion of patients still died without a documented IDD. Multidisciplinary team input improves the accuracy of IDD. We recommend further studies be done to explore how IDD could improve care planning for dying patients and families.

NECPAL tool prognostication in advanced chronic illness: a rapid review and expert consensus

OBJECTIVE

To develop a proposal for a 2-year mortality prognostic approach for patients with advanced chronic conditions based on the palliative care need (PCN) items of the NECesidades PALiativas (NECPAL) CCOMS-ICO V.3.1 2017 tool.

METHODS

A phase 1 study using three components based on the NECPAL items: (1) a rapid review of systematic reviews (SRs) on prognostic factors of mortality in patients with advanced chronic diseases and PCNs; (2) a clinician and statistician experts' consensus based on the Delphi technique on the selection of mortality prognostic factors; and (3) a panel meeting to discuss the findings of components (1) and (2).

RESULTS

Twenty SRs were included in a rapid review, and 50% were considered of moderate quality. Despite methodological issues, nutritional and functional decline, severe and refractory dyspnoea, multimorbidity, use of resources and specific disease indicators were found to be potentially prognostic variables for mortality across four clinical groups and end-of-life (EoL) trajectories: cancer, dementia and neurologic diseases, chronic organ failure and frailty. Experts' consensus added 'needs' identified by health professionals. However, clinicians were less able to discriminate which NECPAL items were more reliable for a 'general' model. A retrospective cohort study was designed to evaluate this proposal in phase 2.

CONCLUSIONS

We identified several parameters with prognostic value and linked them to the tool's utility to timely identify PCNs of patients with advanced chronic conditions in all settings of care. Initial results show this is a clinical and feasible tool, that will help with clinical pragmatic decision-making and to define services.

Who finds the road to palliative home care support? A nationwide analysis on the use of supportive measures for palliative home care using linked administrative databases

Background

Many countries developed supportive measures for palliative home care, such as financial incentives or multidisciplinary palliative home care teams. For policy makers, it is important to evaluate the use of these national palliative home care supportive measures on a population level.

Methods and findings

Using routinely-collected data on all deaths in Belgium in 2012 (n = 107,847) we measured the use of four statutory supportive measures, specifically intended for patients who have obtained the legal palliative status, and three non-statutory supportive measures. Factors associated with uptake were analysed using multivariable logistic regression. Of all deaths of adult home-dwelling persons in Belgium (n = 87,007), 17.9 percent used at least one statutory supportive measure and 51.5 percent used at least one non-statutory supportive measure. In those who died of an illness indicative of palliative care needs 33.1 percent used at least one statutory supportive measure and 62.2 percent used at least one non-statutory supportive measure. Younger people and persons dying from cancer were more likely to use a statutory policy measure. Older people and persons dying from COPD were most likely to use a non-statutory policy measure. Women, non-single people, and those living in less urbanised areas were most likely to use any supportive measure.

Conclusions

Statutory supportive measures for palliative home care are underused, even in a subpopulation of persons with potential palliative care needs. Policy makers should stimulate an equitable uptake, and reducing the observed inequalities is an important focus for health care policy.

The 'surprise' question in paediatric palliative care: A prospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

The question 'would you be surprised if this patient died in the next 12-months' is widely used for identifying adult patients in the last year of life. However, this has not yet been studied in children.

AIM

To assess the prognostic accuracy of the surprise question when used by a multidisciplinary team to predict survival outcomes of children with life-limiting conditions over a 3 and 12 month period.

DESIGN

A prospective cohort study.

SETTING/PARTICIPANTS

Six multidisciplinary team members working in a children's hospice answered a 3 and 12 month surprise question about 327 children who were either newly referred or receiving care at the hospice between 2011 and 2013.

RESULTS

The prognostic accuracy of the multidisciplinary team for the 3 (and 12)month surprise question were: sensitivity 83.3% (83.3%), specificity 93.2% (70.7%), positive predictive value 41.7% (23.6%), negative predictive value 99% (97.5%) and accuracy 92.6% (71.9%). Patients with a 'no' response had an increased risk of death at 3 (hazard ratio, 22.94, p ⩽ 0.001) and 12 months (hazard ratio, 6.53, p ⩽ 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The surprise question is a highly sensitive prognostic tool for identifying children receiving palliative care who are in the last 3 and 12 months of life. The tool is accurate at recognising children during stable periods demonstrated through a high negative predictive value. In practice, this tool could help identify children who would benefit from specialist end of life care, act as a marker to facilitate communications on advance care planning and assist in resource allocation.

Predicting Performance Status 1 Year After Critical Illness in Patients 80 Years or Older: Development of a Multivariable Clinical Prediction Model

OBJECTIVE

We sought to develop and internally validate a clinical prediction model to estimate the outcome of very elderly patients 12 months after being admitted to the ICU.

DESIGN

Prospective, longitudinal cohort study.

SETTING

Twenty-two Canadian ICUs.

PATIENTS

We recruited 527 patients 80 years or older who had a medical or urgent surgical diagnosis and were admitted to an ICU for at least 24 hours.

MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS

At baseline, we completed a comprehensive geriatric assessment of enrolled patients; survival and functional status was determined 12 months later. We defined recovery from critical illness as Palliative Performance Scale score of greater than or equal to 60. We used logistic regression analysis to examine factors associated with this outcome. Of the 434 patients (82%) whose Palliative Performance Scale was known at 12 months, 50% had died and 29% (126/434) had a score of greater than or equal to 60. In the multivariable model, we found that being married, having a primary diagnosis of emergency coronary artery bypass grafting or valve replacement, and higher baseline Palliative Performance Scale were independently predictive of a 12-month Palliative Performance Scale score of greater than or equal to 60. Male sex, primary diagnosis of stroke, and higher Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score, Charlson comorbidity index, or clinical frailty scale were independently predictive of Palliative Performance Scale score of less than 60.

CONCLUSION

Approximately one-quarter of very old ICU patients achieve a reasonable level of function 1 year after admission. This prediction model applied to individual patients may be helpful in decision making about the utility of life support for very elderly patients who are admitted to the ICU.

C-Reactive Protein Is an Important Biomarker for Prognosis Tumor Recurrence and Treatment Response in Adult Solid Tumors: A Systematic Review

PURPOSE

A systematic literature review was done to determine the relationship between elevated CRP and prognosis in people with solid tumors. C-reactive protein (CRP) is a serum acute phase reactant and a well-established inflammatory marker. We also examined the role of CRP to predict treatment response and tumor recurrence.

METHODS

MeSH (Medical Subject Heading) terms were used to search multiple electronic databases (PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, SCOPUS, EBM-Cochrane). Two independent reviewers selected research papers. We also included a quality Assessment (QA) score. Reports with QA scores <50% were excluded. PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis) methodology was utilized for this review (S1 PRISMA Checklist).

RESULTS

271 articles were identified for final review. There were 45% prospective studies and 52% retrospective. 264 had intermediate QA score (≥50% but <80%); Seven were adequate (80% -100%); A high CRP was predictive of prognosis in 90% (245/271) of studies-80% of the 245 studies by multivariate analysis, 20% by univariate analysis. Many (52%) of the articles were about gastrointestinal malignancies (GI) or kidney malignancies. A high CRP was prognostic in 90% (127 of 141) of the reports in those groups of tumors. CRP was also prognostic in most reports in other solid tumors primary sites.

CONCLUSIONS

A high CRP was associated with higher mortality in 90% of reports in people with solid tumors primary sites. This was particularly notable in GI malignancies and kidney malignancies. In other solid tumors (lung, pancreas, hepatocellular cancer, and bladder) an elevated CRP also predicted prognosis. In addition there is also evidence to support the use of CRP to help decide treatment response and identify tumor recurrence. Better designed large scale studies should be conducted to examine these issues more comprehensively.

The palliative performance scale applied in high-care residential hospice: a retrospective study

BACKGROUND

The Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) is a tool that is widely used to predict end of life. In Ontario, Canada, the PPS is used to mark the terminal phase of life and eligibility for terminal care.

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this retrospective study was to confirm that a PPS level of 40% can be used as a marker for the terminal phase of life.

METHOD

PPS levels from 78 patients were calculated based on the intake reports made at admission to an inpatient hospice.

RESULTS

Although 77 patients passed away within a period of 3 months, PPS levels at admission varied from 10% to 70%. Fifty-six percent of all patients had a PPS level of 40% or less. Regarding survival, three significant PPS profiles, consisting of two or more PPS levels could be distinguished.

Toward a systematic approach to assessment and care planning in palliative care: A practical review of clinical tools

Objective:

Ensuring a consistent and systematic approach to the delivery of care for people with advanced disease is a priority for palliative care services worldwide. Many clinical tools are available to aid in this process; however, they are often used sporadically, and implementation of a routine set of clinical tools to guide care planning in the specialist palliative care sector in Australia has not been achieved. This study sought to recommend key clinical tools that may assist with the assessment and care planning of specialist palliative care provision for patients and family caregivers admitted to specialist palliative care settings (home, hospital, and hospice).

Method:

A mixed-methods sequential approach over four phases was employed, involving: (1) a palliative care sector survey, (2) a systematic literature review, (3) an appraisal of identified clinical tools, and (4) a focus group with an expert panel who critiqued and endorsed a final suite of clinical tools recommended for specialist palliative care.

Results:

Twelve tools with practical relevance were recommended for use across settings of care.

Significance of Results:

Palliative services should review current practices and seek to implement this recommended suite of tools to enhance assessment and guide care delivery across care settings. Subsequent evaluation should also occur.

Survival prediction for advanced cancer patients in the real world: A comparison of the Palliative Prognostic Score, Delirium-Palliative Prognostic Score, Palliative Prognostic Index and modified Prognosis in Palliative Care Study predictor model

PURPOSE

The aim of this study was to investigate the feasibility and accuracy of the Palliative Prognostic Score (PaP score), Delirium-Palliative Prognostic Score (D-PaP score), Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) and modified Prognosis in Palliative Care Study predictor model (PiPS model).

PATIENTS AND METHODS

This multicentre prospective cohort study involved 58 palliative care services, including 19 hospital palliative care teams, 16 palliative care units and 23 home palliative care services, in Japan from September 2012 to April 2014. Analyses were performed involving four patient groups: those treated by palliative care teams, those in palliative care units, those at home and those receiving chemotherapy.

RESULTS

We recruited 2426 participants, and 2361 patients were finally analysed. Risk groups based on these instruments successfully identified patients with different survival profiles in all groups. The feasibility of PPI and modified PiPS-A was more than 90% in all groups, followed by PaP and D-PaP scores; modified PiPS-B had the lowest feasibility. The accuracy of prognostic scores was ⩾69% in all groups and the difference was within 13%, while c-statistics were significantly lower with the PPI than PaP and D-PaP scores.

CONCLUSION

The PaP score, D-PaP score, PPI and modified PiPS model provided distinct survival groups for patients in the three palliative care settings and those receiving chemotherapy. The PPI seems to be suitable for routine clinical use for situations where rough estimates of prognosis are sufficient and/or patients do not want invasive procedure. If clinicians can address more items, the modified PiPS-A would be a non-invasive alternative. In cases where blood samples are available or those requiring more accurate prediction, the PaP and D-PaP scores and modified PiPS-B would be more appropriate.

Independent validation of the modified prognosis palliative care study predictor models in three palliative care settings

CONTEXT

Accurate prognostic information in palliative care settings is needed for patients to make decisions and set goals and priorities. The Prognosis Palliative Care Study (PiPS) predictor models were presented in 2011, but have not yet been fully validated by other research teams.

OBJECTIVES

The primary aim of this study is to examine the accuracy and to validate the modified PiPS (using physician-proxy ratings of mental status instead of patient interviews) in three palliative care settings, namely palliative care units, hospital-based palliative care teams, and home-based palliative care services.

METHODS

This multicenter prospective cohort study was conducted in 58 palliative care services including 16 palliative care units, 19 hospital-based palliative care teams, and 23 home-based palliative care services in Japan from September 2012 through April 2014.

RESULTS

A total of 2426 subjects were recruited. For reasons including lack of followup and missing variables (primarily blood examination data), we obtained analyzable data from 2212 and 1257 patients for the modified PiPS-A and PiPS-B, respectively. In all palliative care settings, both the modified PiPS-A and PiPS-B identified three risk groups with different survival rates (P<0.001). The absolute agreement ranged from 56% to 60% in the PiPS-A model and 60% to 62% in the PiPS-B model.

CONCLUSION

The modified PiPS was successfully validated and can be useful in palliative care units, hospital-based palliative care teams, and home-based palliative care services.

Glasgow prognostic score predicts prognosis for cancer patients in palliative settings: a subanalysis of the Japan-prognostic assessment tools validation (J-ProVal) study

PURPOSE

The Glasgow prognostic score (GPS), which uses C-reactive protein and albumin levels, is a good predictor of prognosis in cancer patients undergoing anti-tumor therapy. The objective of this study was to investigate the correlation between GPS and survival among cancer patients in palliative settings, as findings in such populations have not been well described.

METHODS

This was a subanalysis of a multicenter, prospective, cohort study in patients who were adults, diagnosed with advanced cancer, and first referred to palliative care service in Japan. Patients who were not receiving anti-tumor therapy and who had undergone laboratory examinations were eligible. Clinical features were analyzed to investigate prognostic factors.

RESULTS

A total of 1160 patients were enrolled (41.6 % female; median age, 72 years). The independent predictors were Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status (ECOG PS) score of 4 (hazard ratio (HR), 1.54), liver metastasis (HR, 1.21), dyspnea (HR, 1.35), edema (HR, 1.25), prognostic performance index (HR, 1.56), neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (HR, 1.43), and GPS of 2 (HR, 1.36). The sensitivity and specificity for 3-week prognosis of a GPS of 2 were 0.879 and 0.410. Median survival time with GPS of 0, 1, and 2 was 58 days (95 % confidence interval, 48-81), 43 days (37-50), and 21 days (19-24), respectively (log-rank test, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

The GPS was a good prognostic indicator for cancer patients in palliative settings.

A brief review of survival prediction of advanced cancer patients

Survival prediction of advanced cancer patients remains an important task for palliative clinicians. It has transformed from an art form into a more scientific branch of the discipline with the evolution of palliative medicine and use of statistical estimates of survival. Both clinician predicted survival and actuarial estimation of survival have their uses and drawbacks. This article gives a practical and quick summary of the pros and cons of clinician survival prediction and actuarial-based prognostic tools used at the bedside.

How are palliative care cancer populations characterized in randomized controlled trials? A literature review

CONTEXT

The difficulties in defining a palliative care patient accentuate the need to provide stringent descriptions of the patient population in palliative care research.

OBJECTIVES

To conduct a systematic literature review with the aim of identifying which key variables have been used to describe adult palliative care cancer populations in randomized controlled trials (RCTs).

METHODS

The data sources used were MEDLINE (1950 to January 25, 2010) and Embase (1980 to January 25, 2010), limited to RCTs in adult cancer patients with incurable disease. Forty-three variables were systematically extracted from the eligible articles.

RESULTS

The review includes 336 articles reporting RCTs in palliative care cancer patients. Age (98%), gender (90%), cancer diagnosis (89%), performance status (45%), and survival (45%) were the most frequently reported variables. A large number of other variables were much less frequently reported.

CONCLUSION

A substantial variation exists in how palliative care cancer populations are described in RCTs. Few variables are consistently registered and reported. There is a clear need to standardize the reporting. The results from this work will serve as the basis for an international Delphi process with the aim of reaching consensus on a minimum set of descriptors to characterize a palliative care cancer population.

Predicting survival time in noncurative patients with advanced cancer: a prospective study in China

BACKGROUND

Accurate prediction of prognosis for cancer patients is important for good clinical decision making in therapeutic and care strategies. The application of prognostic tools and indicators could improve prediction accuracy.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to develop a new prognostic scale to predict survival time of advanced cancer patients in China.

METHODS

We prospectively collected items that we anticipated might influence survival time of advanced cancer patients. Participants were recruited from 12 hospitals in Shanghai, China. We collected data including demographic information, clinical symptoms and signs, and biochemical test results. Log-rank tests, Cox regression, and linear regression were performed to develop a prognostic scale.

RESULTS

Three hundred twenty patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Fourteen prognostic factors were included in the prognostic scale: Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) values. The score was calculated by summing the partial scores, ranging from 0 to 30. When using the cutoff points of 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day survival time, the scores were calculated as 12, 10, 8, and 6, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

We propose a new prognostic scale including KPS, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, WBC count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, AST, and ALP values, which may help guide physicians in predicting the likely survival time of cancer patients more accurately. More studies are needed to validate this scale in the future.

Use of Prognostic Tools in the Hospital, Assessment of Factors Behind Their Use or lack Thereof Through a Physician-Oriented Survey

Physician's use of prognostic tools may help to decide on the intensity of therapies provided and communicate with patients and their caregivers in a timely fashion. However, literature that describes knowledge, perceived limitations and overall use of these tools by doctors is lacking. By way of a physician survey, we attempted to look at the use of prognostic tools in our community of doctors in our department of internal medicine. Our results showed that overall physicians have superficial knowledge of prognostic tools. We also discovered that physicians believe these tools to be helpful, yet their availability is compromised by lack of exposure during formative years, their cumbersome structure and the impracticalities of remembering them at bedside.

Prospective clarification of the utility of the palliative prognostic index for patients with advanced cancer in the home care setting

AIMS

This study aimed to prospectively clarify the accuracy of the Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) for advanced cancer patients in home care settings.

METHOD

The study included 66 advanced cancer patients who received home visiting services between April 2010 and June 2012, and who died at home or in the hospital. Using medical records from initial home visits, we prospectively calculated PPI scores along with sensitivity and specificity.

RESULTS

For 3- and 6-week survival, prognostic prediction showed respective sensitivities of 60% and 70.6%, and specificities of 87.0% and 71.9%.

CONCLUSION

The sensitivity of the PPI for advanced cancer patients in home care settings was lower than that reported for patients in palliative care units. Development of prognostic tools suitable for home care settings is needed.

Prognostic factors in patients with advanced cancer: a comparison of clinicopathological factors and the development of an inflammation-based prognostic system

PURPOSE

In advanced cancer, oncological treatment is influenced by performance status (PS); however, this has limitations. Biomarkers of systemic inflammation may have prognostic value in advanced cancer. The study compares key factors in prognosis (performance status, patient-reported outcomes; PRO) with an inflammation-based score (Glasgow Prognostic Score, mGPS). A new method of prognosis in advanced cancer (combining performance status and mGPS) is tested and then validated.

EXPERIMENTAL DESIGN

Two international biobanks of patients with advanced cancer were analyzed. Key prognostic factors [performance status, PROs (European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaire C-30), and mGPS (using C-reactive protein and albumin concentrations)] were examined. The relationship between these and survival was examined using Kaplan-Meier and Cox regression methods, in a test sample before independent validation.

RESULTS

Data were available on 1,825 patients (test) and 631 patients (validation). Median survival ranged from 3.2 months (test) to 7.03 months (validation). On multivariate analysis, performance status (HR 1.62-2.77) and mGPS (HR 1.51-2.27) were independently associated with, and were the strongest predictors of survival (P < 0.01). Survival at 3 months varied from 82% (mGPS 0) to 39% (mGPS 2) and from 75% (performance status 0-1) to 14% (performance status 4). When used together, survival ranged from 88% (mGPS 0, PS 0-1) to 10% (mGPS 2, performance status 4), P < 0.001.

CONCLUSION

A systemic inflammation-based score, mGPS, and performance status predict survival in advanced cancer. The mGPS is similar to performance status in terms of prognostic power. Used together, performance status and mGPS act synergistically improving prognostic accuracy. This new method may be of considerable value in the management of patients with advanced cancer.

Predicting 7-day survival using heart rate variability in hospice patients with non-lung cancers

BACKGROUND

A simple and accurate survival prediction tool can facilitate decision making processes for hospice patients with advanced cancers. The objectives of this study were to explore the association of cardiac autonomic functions and survival in patients with advanced cancer and to evaluate the prognostic value of heart rate variability (HRV) in 7-day survival prediction.

METHODS

A prospective study was conducted on 138 patients with advanced cancer recruited from the hospice ward of a regional hospital in southern Taiwan. Information on functional status and symptom burden of the patients was recorded. Frequency-domain HRV was obtained for the evaluation of cardiac autonomic functions at admission. The end point of the study was defined as the survival status at day 7 after admission to the hospice ward. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to evaluate the independent associations between HRV indices and survival of 7 days or less.

RESULTS

The median survival time of the patients was 20 days (95% CI, 17-28 days). Results from the multivariate logistic regression analysis indicated that the natural logarithm-transformed high-frequency power (lnHFP) of a value less than 2 (OR = 3.8, p = 0.008) and ECOG performance status of 3 or 4 (OR = 3.4, p = 0.023) were significantly associated with a higher risk of survival of 7 days or less. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis revealed that the area under the curve was 0.71 (95% CI, 0.61-0.81).

CONCLUSIONS

In hospice patients with non-lung cancers, an lnHPF value below 2 at hospice admission was significantly associated with survival of 7 days or less. HRV might be used as a non-invasive and objective tool to facilitate medical decision making by improving the accuracy in survival prediction.

Retrospective Assessment of Objective Prognostic Score in Terminally Ill Korean Patients With Cancer

We conducted a retrospective study by reviewing the medical records of 104 patients to assess the usefulness of the objective prognostic score (OPS) in an independent population of Korea. The median survival time (±standard error) of the high OPS group (≥3) was 9.0 ± 1.31 days and that of the low OPS group (<3) was 26.0 ± 3.3 days. The former was significantly shorter than the latter ( P < .001). Only delirium (hazard ratio 1.751, P = .032) was related to shorter survival time independent of the OPS. This study demonstrates that the OPS is a valid and useful prognostic tool for predicting survival in terminally ill Korean patients with cancer, and that inclusion of delirium into the OPS may improve its prognostic value.

Performance status and symptom scores of women with gynecologic cancer at the end of life

OBJECTIVE

The Palliative Performance Scale (PPS), which measures performance status (100 = best performance to 0 = dead), and the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System (ESAS), which measures severity of 9 symptoms, are routinely collected at ambulatory cancer visits in Ontario. This study describes the trajectory of scores in patients with gynecologic cancer in the last 6 months of life.

METHODS

An observational study was conducted between 2007 and 2010. Patients had ovarian/fallopian tube, uterine, and cervical cancer and required 1 or more PPS or ESAS assessment in the 6 months before death. Outcomes were the average PPS and ESAS scores per week before death. Using logistic regression, we analyzed the odds ratio of reporting a moderate to severe score for each symptom.

RESULTS

Seven hundred ninety-five (PPS) and 1299 (ESAS) patients were included. The average PPS score started at 70 and ended at 30, rapidly declining in the last 2 months. For ESAS symptoms, drowsiness, decreased well-being, lack of appetite, and tiredness increased in severity closer to death and were prevalent in more than 70% of patients in the last week of life. Patients with cervical cancer had increased odds of moderate to severe pain (1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.32) compared with ovarian cancer.

CONCLUSIONS

Trajectories of mean performance status had not reached the "end-of-life" phase until 1 week before death. A large proportion of the gynecologic cancer patients reported moderate to severe symptom scores as death approached. Pain was uniquely elevated in the cervical cancer cohort as death approached. Adequately managing the symptom burden appears to be a significant issue in end-of-life gynecologic care.

International palliative care experts' view on phenomena indicating the last hours and days of life

BACKGROUND

Providing the highest quality care for dying patients should be a core clinical proficiency and an integral part of comprehensive management, as fundamental as diagnosis and treatment. The aim of this study was to provide expert consensus on phenomena for identification and prediction of the last hours or days of a patient's life. This study is part of the OPCARE9 project, funded by the European Commission's Seventh Framework Programme.

METHOD

The phenomena associated with approaching death were generated using Delphi technique. The Delphi process was set up in three cycles to collate a set of useful and relevant phenomena that identify and predict the last hours and days of life. Each cycle included: (1) development of the questionnaire, (2) distribution of the Delphi questionnaire and (3) review and synthesis of findings.

RESULTS

The first Delphi cycle of 252 participants (health care professionals, volunteers, public) generated 194 different phenomena, perceptions and observations. In the second cycle, these phenomena were checked for their specific ability to diagnose the last hours/days of life. Fifty-eight phenomena achieved more than 80% expert consensus and were grouped into nine categories. In the third cycle, these 58 phenomena were ranked by a group of palliative care experts (78 professionals, including physicians, nurses, psycho-social-spiritual support; response rate 72%, see Table 1) in terms of clinical relevance to the prediction that a person will die within the next few hours/days. Twenty-one phenomena were determined to have "high relevance" by more than 50% of the experts. Based on these findings, the changes in the following categories (each consisting of up to three phenomena) were considered highly relevant to clinicians in identifying and predicting a patient's last hours/days of life: "breathing", "general deterioration", "consciousness/cognition", "skin", "intake of fluid, food, others", "emotional state" and "non-observations/expressed opinions/other".

CONCLUSION

Experts from different professional backgrounds identified a set of categories describing a structure within which clinical phenomena can be clinically assessed, in order to more accurately predict whether someone will die within the next days or hours. However, these phenomena need further specification for clinical use.

Rough Set Theory based prognostication of life expectancy for terminally ill patients

We present a novel knowledge discovery methodology that relies on Rough Set Theory to predict the life expectancy of terminally ill patients in an effort to improve the hospice referral process. Life expectancy prognostication is particularly valuable for terminally ill patients since it enables them and their families to initiate end-of-life discussions and choose the most desired management strategy for the remainder of their lives. We utilize retrospective data from 9105 patients to demonstrate the design and implementation details of a series of classifiers developed to identify potential hospice candidates. Preliminary results confirm the efficacy of the proposed methodology. We envision our work as a part of a comprehensive decision support system designed to assist terminally ill patients in making end-of-life care decisions.

Prognostication in advanced cancer: a study examining an inflammation-based score

CONTEXT

Prognostication in advanced cancer is challenging. Biomarkers of systemic inflammation (C-reactive protein and albumin) combined in the modified Glasgow Prognostic Score (mGPS) have been used to assist prognostication in various cancer types.

OBJECTIVES

The aim of this study was to examine whether an inflammation-based prognostic score (mGPS) is useful in prognostication in advanced cancer patients.

METHODS

Cancer patients who had biomarkers (C-reactive protein and albumin) recorded were allocated an mGPS ranging from 0-2. Groups were compared using Jonckheere-Terpstra and Chi-squared tests. Survival analyses were carried out using Kaplan-Meier and multivariate Cox regression models.

RESULTS

A total of 296 patients were included, and a representative subgroup of 102 had biomarkers recorded. The mGPS was predictive of death (P=0.014) adjusted for sex, cancer site, age, hemoglobin, and white cell count. Patients with an mGPS of 2 had 2.7 times the risk of death of those with an mGPS of 0 (P=0.011). Patients with an mGPS less than 2 had an 86.1% and 74.3% chance of being alive at two and four weeks, respectively.

CONCLUSION

A role for the mGPS in prognostication near the end of life is suggested. Biomarkers (e.g., mGPS) may assist clinical decisions as to whether intensive treatments are appropriate and may facilitate end-of-life care planning.

Usefulness of Palliative Prognostic Index for patient with advanced cancer in home care setting

AIMS

This study aimed to clarify the accuracy of the Palliative Prognostic Index (PPI) for advanced cancer patients in home care settings.

METHOD

The study included 65 advanced cancer patients who received home visiting services between April 2007 and June 2009, and who died at home or in the hospital. Using the medical records from initial home visits, we retrospectively calculated PPI scores along with sensitivity and specificity.

RESULTS

For 3- and 6-week survival, prognostic prediction demonstrated respective sensitivities of 55% and 63%, and specificities of 79% and 77%.

CONCLUSION

The sensitivity of the PPI for advanced cancer patients in home care settings was lower than reported for those in palliative care units. Development of prognostic tools suitable for home care settings is needed.

Clinician accuracy when estimating survival duration: the role of the patient's performance status and time-based prognostic categories

CONTEXT

Although shown to be an independent predictor of actual survival (AS) duration, previous reports have identified significant inaccuracy in clinician estimates of survival (CES).

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to both examine demographic and clinical factors potentially impacting CES accuracy and explore possible strategies for improvement in a patient population with advanced incurable disease.

METHODS

At the time of initial assessment by a specialist palliative care team, CES for each patient was chosen from one of the following time-based categories: <24 hours, one to seven days, one to four weeks, one to three months, three to six months, three to 12 months, or >12 months. Survival estimates were then classified as an accurate (AS=CES), overestimate (AS<CES), or underestimate (AS>CES). Demographic data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, and both univariate and stepwise multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to identify any associated demographic and/or clinical factors significantly impacting accuracy.

RESULTS

Within the total study population of 1835, both CES and AS data were available for 1622 patients among whom mean and median survival was 26.5 and 88 days, respectively. The remaining 213 patients (12% of the total population) remained alive at the time of analysis. Of the total study population, CES was accurate for 34% of patients and an overestimate for 51% of patients. CES of <24 hours and one to seven days were significantly more likely to be accurate than any other prognostic category (P<0.0001). Additionally, a CES of either one to four weeks or >12 months was significantly more likely to be accurate than CES of one to three months, three to six months, and six to 12 months (P<0.0001). Finally, multivariate analyses indicated CES to be significantly more likely to be accurate for males (P=0.0407) and for patients with baseline Palliative Performance Scale (PPS) ratings of either "30 and less" (P<0.0001) or "70 and greater" (P<0.0001).

CONCLUSION

In a patient population referred for specialist palliative care consultation with diverse diagnoses and a wide range of CES, time-based categorization of survival estimates along with PPS and possibly gender could be used to inform the CES process for individual patients. Intentionally incorporating these objective elements into what has historically been the subjective process of CES may lead to improvements in accuracy.

[Hand grip strength: can this be a prognostic factor for mortality in palliative care patients?]

OBJECTIVE

To determine whether hand grip strength (HGS) is a prognostic factor for mortality in a palliative care unit (PCU), using two variables: A1: The HP on admission; A2: The progression of the HGS in the first 12days of admission.

MATERIAL AND METHODS

A prospective, observational and comparative study of patients with advanced cancer admitted consecutively over a 4 month period into a PCU. A series of 4 determinations of HGS were made using a JAMAR(®) 5030J1 dynamometer. A total of 78 patients fulfilled the inclusion criteria, of which 61 (78.2%) agreed to take part.

RESULTS

Objective A1: Of the 61 enrolled patients, the survivors (n=25) differed by -1.8 (Standard Deviation (SD) 0.8) from the reference values for age and gender, and for those that died (n=36) it was -1.9 (1.1) (P=.6). A survival analysis was performed with this sample. The sample was subdivided into those who were > -2 SD (n=34) and those < -2 SD (n=27) (P=.3). Those patients who managed 4 determinations (n=49) were included in objective A2. At discharge there were 26 deaths and 23 alive. There were no statistically significant differences between the determinations. Only the comparison between the difference between the 4th and 1st determination in the two groups showed a significant result (P=.01).

CONCLUSIONS

The HGS measured at admission, as well as in the first 12days, was not a prognostic factor for mortality in the sample studied.

Aging in Rural Canada: A Retrospective and Review

La recherche sur le vieillissement en milieu rural s’est développée considérablement depuis la publication du livre,Aging in Rural Canada(Butterworths, 1991). Le but de cet article est double : de fournir une rétrospective sur les questions de viellissement en milieu rural tirée de ce livre, et une revue de la littérature canadienne sur le vieillissement en milieu rural depuis sa publication. L’examen met en évidence les nouvelles orientations dans les définitions conceptuelles du « rural », et dans les questions de l’engagement social, l’indépendance, les réseaux familiaux et sociaux et les services ruraux et la santé. Deux perspectives principales de recherche sont évidents. Le point de vue ou l’optique d’analyse de la marginalisation se concentre sur les personnes âgées en milieu rural ayant des problèmes de santé, mais n’a pas inclus celles qui sont marginalisées par la pauvrété ou le sexe. L’optique d’analyse du vieillissement sain se concentre sur les contributions et l’engagement, mais a omis la recherche sur les relations sociales et la qualité de l’interaction familiale. Le rapport comprend un appel s’interroger sur l’interaction entre les gens et leur lieu de vie et à comprendre les enjeux de la diversité en milieu rural et le processus de vieillissement en milieu rural.

A validated risk score to estimate mortality risk in patients with dementia and pneumonia: barriers to clinical impact

BACKGROUND

The clinical impact of risk score use in end-of-life settings is unknown, with reports limited to technical properties.

METHODS

We conducted a mixed-methods study to evaluate clinical impact of a validated mortality risk score aimed at informing prognosis and supporting clinicians in decision-making in dementia patients with pneumonia. We performed a trial (n = 69) with physician-reported outcomes referring to the score's aims. Subsequently, physician focus group discussions were planned to better understand barriers to clinical impact, and we surveyed families (n = 50) and nurses practicing in nursing homes (n = 29). We finally consulted with experts and key persons for implementation.

RESULTS

Most (71%) physicians who used the score considered it useful, but mainly for its learning effects. Families were never informed of numerical risk estimates. Two focus group discussions revealed a reluctance to use a numerical approach, and physicians found that outcomes conditional on antibiotic treatment were inadequate to support decision-making. Nurses varied in their perceived role in informing families. Most families (88%) wished to be informed, preferring a numerical (43%), verbalized (35%), or other approach (18%) or had no preference (5%). Revising the score, we added an ethical framework for decision-making to acknowledge its complexity, an explanatory note addressing barriers related to physicians' attitudes, and a nurses' form.

CONCLUSION

The combined quantitative and qualitative studies elicited: substantial barriers to a numerical approach to physicians' end-of-life decision-making; crucial information for revisions and further score development; and a need for implementation strategies that focus on education.