Risk stratification and treatment effect of statins in secondary cardiovascular prevention in old age: Additive value of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide

A microbiota pattern associated with cardiovascular events in secondary prevention: the CORDIOPREV study

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Preventing new cardiovascular events in patients with established cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a daunting task for clinicians. Intestinal microbiota may help identify patients at risk, thus improving the strategies of secondary prevention. The aim of this study was to evaluate the baseline differences between the gut microbiota from coronary heart disease (CHD) patients suffering new major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in the following 7 years, compared with CHD patients who did not undergo new MACE in this period, and to build a score associated with the risk of suffering new MACE.

METHODS

Within the framework of the CORDIOPREV study, a clinical trial that involved 1002 patients with CHD, intestinal microbiota was examined in patients with available faecal samples (n = 679, 132 MACE), through 16S metagenomics on the Illumina MiSeq and Quiime2 software. Lipopolysaccharide (LPS) was measured using limulus amoebocyte lysate test.

RESULTS

Random survival forest identified 10 bacterial taxa with a higher predictive power for MACE incidence. Receiver operating characteristic curves yielded an area under the curve of 65.2% (59.1%-71.3%) in the training set and 68.6% (59.3%-77.9%) in the validation set. The intestinal microbiota risk score was associated with a MACE incidence hazard ratio of 2.01 (95% confidence interval 1.37-3.22). Lipopolysaccharide analysis showed a greater LPS post-prandial fold change in the MACE group (P = .005).

CONCLUSIONS

These results reinforce the relationship between intestinal microbiota and CVD and suggest that a microbiota profile is associated with MACE in CHD patients, in addition to higher endotoxaemia.

Plasma Biomarkers for Hypertension-Mediated Organ Damage Detection: A Narrative Review

Hypertension (HT) is a disease that poses a serious threat to human health, mediating organ damage such as the cardiovascular (CV) system, kidneys, central nervous system (CNS), and retinae, ultimately increasing the risk of death due to damage to the entire vascular system. Thus, the widespread prevalence of hypertension brings enormous health problems and socioeconomic burdens worldwide. The goal of hypertension management is to prevent the risk of hypertension-mediated organ damage and excess mortality of cardiovascular diseases. To achieve this goal, hypertension guidelines recommend accurate monitoring of blood pressure and assessment of associated target organ damage. Early identification of organ damage mediated by hypertension is therefore crucial. Plasma biomarkers as a non-invasive test can help identify patients with organ damage mediated by hypertension who will benefit from antihypertensive treatment optimization and improved prognosis. In this review, we provide an overview of some currently available, under-researched, potential plasma biomarkers of organ damage mediated by hypertension, looking for biomarkers that can be detected by simple testing to identify hypertensive patients with organ damage, which is of great significance in clinical work. Natriuretic peptides (NPs) can be utilized as a traditional biomarker to detect hypertension-mediated organ damage, especially for heart failure. Nevertheless, we additionally may need to combine two or more plasma biomarkers to monitor organ damage in the early stages of hypertension.

Biomarkers versus traditional risk factors to predict cardiovascular events in very old adults: cross-validated prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVES

To test new cardiovascular (CV) risk models in very old adults with and without a history of CV disease (CVD), based on traditional risk factors and biomarkers.

DESIGN

Cross-validated prospective cohort study. The models were tested in the BELFRAIL Study and externally validated in the Leiden 85-plus Study.

SETTING

General practice, Belgium and The Netherlands.

PARTICIPANTS

The BELFRAIL cohort consisted of 266 patients aged 80 years or older without a history of CVD and 260 with a history of CVD. The Leiden 85-plus Study consisted of 264 patients aged 85 years without a history of CVD and 282 with a history of CVD.

OUTCOME MEASURES

The model with traditional risk factors and biomarkers, as well as the model using only biomarkers, was compared with the model with only traditional risk factors to predict 3-year CV morbidity and mortality. A competing-risk analysis was performed, and the continuous net reclassification improvement (NRI), integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net benefit were used to compare the predictive value of the different models.

RESULTS

Traditional risk factors poorly predicted CV mortality and morbidity. In participants without a history of CVD, adding N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-pro-BNP) improved the prediction (NRI 0.56 (95% CI 0.16 to 0.99) and relative IDI 4.01 (95% CI 2.19 to 6.28)). In participants with a history of CVD, the NRI with the addition of NT-pro-BNP and high-sensitivity C reactive protein was 0.38 (95% CI 0.09 to 0.70), and the relative IDI was 0.53 (95% CI 0.23 to 0.90). Moreover, in participants without a history of CVD, NT-pro-BNP performed well as a stand-alone predictor (NRI 0.32 (95% CI -0.12 to 0.74) and relative IDI 3.44 (95% CI 1.56 to 6.09)).

CONCLUSIONS

This study tested new risk models to predict CV morbidity and mortality in very old adults. Especially, NT-pro-BNP showed a strong added predictive value. This opens perspectives for clinicians who are in need of an easily applicable strategy for CV risk prediction in very old adults.

Nuclear magnetic resonance-based metabolomics identifies phenylalanine as a novel predictor of incident heart failure hospitalisation: results from PROSPER and FINRISK 1997

Aims

We investigated the association between quantified metabolite, lipid and lipoprotein measures and incident heart failure hospitalisation (HFH) in the elderly, and examined whether circulating metabolic measures improve HFH prediction.

Methods and results

Overall, 80 metabolic measures from the PROspective Study of Pravastatin in the Elderly at Risk (PROSPER) trial were measured by proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy (n = 5341; 182 HFH events during 2.7‐year follow‐up). We repeated the work in FINRISK 1997 (n = 7330; 133 HFH events during 5‐year follow‐up). In PROSPER, the circulating concentrations of 13 metabolic measures were found to be significantly different in those who were later hospitalised for heart failure after correction for multiple comparisons. These included creatinine, phenylalanine, glycoprotein acetyls, 3‐hydroxybutyrate, and various high‐density lipoprotein measures. In Cox models, two metabolites were associated with risk of HFH after adjustment for clinical risk factors and N‐terminal pro‐B‐type natriuretic peptide (NT‐proBNP): phenylalanine [hazard ratio (HR) 1.29, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.10–1.53; P = 0.002] and acetate (HR 0.81, 95% CI 0.68–0.98; P = 0.026). Both were retained in the final model after backward elimination. Compared to a model with established risk factors and NT‐proBNP, this model did not improve the C‐index but did improve the overall continuous net reclassification index (NRI 0.21; 95% CI 0.06–0.35; P = 0.007) due to improvement in classification of non‐cases (NRI 0.14; 95% CI 0.12–0.17; P < 0.001). Phenylalanine was replicated as a predictor of HFH in FINRISK 1997 (HR 1.23, 95% CI 1.03–1.48; P = 0.023).

Conclusion

Our findings identify phenylalanine as a novel predictor of incident HFH, although prediction gains are low. Further mechanistic studies appear warranted.

Natriuretic peptides and integrated risk assessment for cardiovascular disease: an individual-participant-data meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Guidelines for primary prevention of cardiovascular diseases focus on prediction of coronary heart disease and stroke. We assessed whether or not measurement of N-terminal-pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) concentration could enable a more integrated approach than at present by predicting heart failure and enhancing coronary heart disease and stroke risk assessment.

METHODS

In this individual-participant-data meta-analysis, we generated and harmonised individual-participant data from relevant prospective studies via both de-novo NT-proBNP concentration measurement of stored samples and collection of data from studies identified through a systematic search of the literature (PubMed, Scientific Citation Index Expanded, and Embase) for articles published up to Sept 4, 2014, using search terms related to natriuretic peptide family members and the primary outcomes, with no language restrictions. We calculated risk ratios and measures of risk discrimination and reclassification across predicted 10 year risk categories (ie, <5%, 5% to <7·5%, and ≥7·5%), adding assessment of NT-proBNP concentration to that of conventional risk factors (ie, age, sex, smoking status, systolic blood pressure, history of diabetes, and total and HDL cholesterol concentrations). Primary outcomes were the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke, and the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure.

FINDINGS

We recorded 5500 coronary heart disease, 4002 stroke, and 2212 heart failure outcomes among 95 617 participants without a history of cardiovascular disease in 40 prospective studies. Risk ratios (for a comparison of the top third vs bottom third of NT-proBNP concentrations, adjusted for conventional risk factors) were 1·76 (95% CI 1·56-1·98) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and 2·00 (1·77-2·26) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure. Addition of information about NT-proBNP concentration to a model containing conventional risk factors was associated with a C-index increase of 0·012 (0·010-0·014) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·027 (0·019-0·036) for the combination of coronary heart disease and stroke and a C-index increase of 0·019 (0·016-0·022) and a net reclassification improvement of 0·028 (0·019-0·038) for the combination of coronary heart disease, stroke, and heart failure.

INTERPRETATION

In people without baseline cardiovascular disease, NT-proBNP concentration assessment strongly predicted first-onset heart failure and augmented coronary heart disease and stroke prediction, suggesting that NT-proBNP concentration assessment could be used to integrate heart failure into cardiovascular disease primary prevention.

FUNDING

British Heart Foundation, Austrian Science Fund, UK Medical Research Council, National Institute for Health Research, European Research Council, and European Commission Framework Programme 7.