Geographic access to care is not a determinant of child mortality in a rural Kenyan setting with high health facility density

Spatial accessibility modeling to healthcare facilities in the case of health shocks of Midnapore municipality, India

This research aims to identify the accessibility of the entire population, especially the slum population to existing healthcare facilities (HCF) as well as the slum neighborhoods having low geographic accessibility, and finally, to provide an analytical model for the people living in areas that are outside the coverage range of existing healthcare facilities (HCF) across the study area. Spatial data has been collected and used based on the road network, elevation, location of HCF, municipal boundary, slum point, and satellite images from various sources. Also, non-spatial data such as socioeconomic variables are collected from questionnaires survey within a particular period. The spatial analysis tool like as near, network analysis, and predictive analysis in the ArcGIS platform was used to examine geographic accessibility. The results of the spatial analysis show that the distribution of public healthcare facility centers in the study area has not been uniformly distributed. Across 84% of areas in the study area have sound spatial accessibility with traveling time coverage is about 12 min. However, 16% of areas have a traveling time of 12 to 30 min under low accessibility with existing slum neighborhoods. Therefore, the low spatial accessibility areas are demanding new healthcare facilities in the study area. The Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) is employed to find the most optimal and efficient locational suitability for building new healthcare facility centers. The finding of AHP analysis for site suitability of healthcare facilities revealed five major classes as most suitable (2%), suitable (5%), moderate (35%), poor (54%), and very poor (4%) in the study area. Moreover, the realistic framework of this study helps to measure geographic accessibility and suitability in any geographical area.

Spatial analysis and modelling for primary healthcare site selection in Midnapore town, West Bengal

Unprecedented and chaotic growth of cities results in reducing open spaces and water bodies, worsening infrastructure facilities and changes in ecological morphology. This unregulated growth of the urban population led to uneven distribution of urban amenities, facilities and healthcare services. Considering this, the study aimed to draw attention to the existing spatial pattern of healthcare facility centres as well as to find out the possible sites for the provision of healthcare facility centres in the municipal ward (micro-scale) of Midnapore town. This prototype study was conducted using Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Ordinary Least Square (OLS) evaluation model based on various criteria through Arc GIS environment. The findings indicate that the spatial distribution patterns of existing public healthcare centres were significantly dispersed. Weights based on a set of criteria were calculated by AHP and OLS algorithm and generated suitability evaluation maps classified from 1 (poor suitable) to 4 (most suitable). According to the employed criteria in this study unveil those existing hospitals and primary healthcare centres have not been located in the appropriate locations. The model is found to be valid for the given study area and there is no significant difference between AHP and OLS results. Further, it can be used for preparing the suitability map for the other areas with similar geo-environmental conditions for the proviso of healthcare services as well as will be most effective in preventing disease progression and reducing healthcare inequality on a large scale.

SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s10708-021-10528-w.

Impact of social accountability monitoring on health facility performance: Evidence from Tanzania

Social accountability programs are increasingly used to improve the performance of public service providers in low-income settings. Despite their growing popularity, evidence on the effectiveness of social accountability programs remains mixed. In this manuscript, we assess the impact of a social accountability intervention on health facility management exploring quasiexperimental variation in program exposure in Tanzania. We find that the social accountability intervention resulted in a 1.8 SD reduction in drug stockouts relative to the control group, but did not improve facility infrastructure maintenance. The results of this study suggest that social accountability programs may be effective in areas of health service provision that are responsive to changes in provider behavior but may not work in settings where improvements in outcomes are conditional on larger health systems features.

The effects of changes in distance to nearest health facility on under-5 mortality and health care utilization in rural Malawi, 1980-1998

Background

Despite important progress, the burden of under-5 mortality remains unacceptably high, with an estimated 5.3 million deaths in 2018. Lack of access to health care is a major risk factor for under-5 mortality, and distance to health care facilities has been shown to be associated with less access to care in multiple contexts, but few such studies have used a counterfactual approach to produce causal estimates.

Methods

We combined retrospective reports on 18,714 births between 1980 and 1998 from the 2000 Malawi Demographic and Health Survey with a 1998 health facility census that includes the date of construction for each facility, including 335 maternity or maternity/dispensary facilities built in rural areas between 1980 and 1998. We estimated associations between distance to nearest health facility and (i) under-5 mortality, using Cox proportional hazards models, and (ii) maternal health care utilization (antenatal visits prior to delivery, place of delivery, receiving skilled assistance during delivery, and receiving a check-up following delivery), using linear probability models. We also estimated the causal effect of reducing the distance to nearest facility on those outcomes, using a two-way fixed effects approach.

Findings

We found that greater distance was associated with higher mortality (hazard ratio 1.007 for one additional kilometer [95%CI 1.001 to 1.014]) and lower health care utilization (for one additional kilometer: 1.2 percentage point (pp) increase in homebirth [95%CI 0.8 to 1.5]; 0.8 pp. decrease in at least three antenatal visits [95% CI − 1.4 to − 0.2]; 1.2 pp. decrease in skilled assistance during delivery [95%CI − 1.6 to − 0.8]). However, we found no effects of a decrease in distance to the nearest health facility on the hazard of death before age 5 years, nor on antenatal visits prior to delivery, place of delivery, or receiving skilled assistance during delivery. We also found that reductions in distance decrease the probability that a woman receives a check-up following delivery (2.4 pp. decrease for a 1 km decrease [95%CI 0.004 to 0.044]).

Conclusion

Reducing under-5 mortality and increasing utilization of care in rural Malawi and similar settings may require more than the construction of new health infrastructure. Importantly, the effects estimated here likely depend on the quality of health care, the availability of transportation, the demand for health services, and the underlying causes of mortality, among other factors.

Predicted effect of regionalised delivery care on neonatal mortality, utilisation, financial risk, and patient utility in Malawi: an agent-based modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Health-care regionalisation, in which selected services are concentrated in higher-level facilities, has successfully improved the quality of complex medical care. However, the effectiveness of this strategy in routine maternal care is unknown. Malawi has established a national goal of halving its neonatal mortality by 2030. In this study, we aimed to assess the effect of obstetric service regionalisation in pregnant women and their newborn babies in Malawi.

METHODS

In this analysis, we assessed regionalisation through the use of an agent-based simulation model. We used a previously estimated utilisation function, incorporating both patient-specific and health-facility-specific characteristics, to inform patient choice. The model was validated against known utilisation patterns in Malawi. Four regionalisation scenarios were compared with the status quo: scenario 1 restricted deliveries to facilities currently capable of providing caesarean sections; scenario 2 had the same restrictions as scenario 1, but with selected facilities upgraded to provide caesarean sections; scenario 3 restricted delivery to facilities that provided five or more basic emergency obstetric and neonatal care services in the preceding 3 months; and scenario 4 had the same restrictions as scenario 3, but with selected facilities upgraded to provide at least five basic emergency obstetric and neonatal care services. We assessed neonatal mortality, utilisation, travel distance, median out-of-pocket expenditure, and proportion of women facing catastrophic expenditure. The effects of upgrading the obstetric readiness of all facilities, of removing all user fees, and of upgrading without restriction were considered in scenario analyses. Heterogeneity and parameter uncertainty were incorporated to create 95% posterior credible intervals (PCIs).

FINDINGS

Scenarios restricting women to give birth in facilities with caesarean section capabilities reduced neonatal mortality by 11·4 deaths per 1000 livebirths (scenario 1; 95% PCI 9·8-13·1) and 11·6 deaths per 1000 livebirths (scenario 2; 10·2-13·1), whereas scenarios restricting women to facilities that provided five or more basic emergency obstetric and neonatal care services did not affect neonatal mortality. Similarly, the caesarean section rate in Malawi, which is 4·6% under the status quo, was predicted to rise significantly in scenario 1 (14·7%, 95% PCI 14·5-14·9; p<0·0001) and scenario 2 (10·4%, 10·2-10·6; p<0·0001), but not in scenarios 3 and 4. Women were required to travel longer distances in scenario 1 (increase of 7·2 km, 95% PCI 4·5-9·9) and in scenario 2 (4·4 km, 1·5-7·2) than in the status quo (p<0·0001). Out-of-pocket costs tripled (p<0·0001; status quo vs scenario 1 and scenario 2), and the risk of catastrophic expenditure significantly increased from a baseline of 6·4% (95% PCI 6·1-6·6) to 14·7% (14·5-14·9) in scenario 1 and 11·3% (11·0-11·5) in scenario 2. This increase was especially pronounced among the poor (p<0·0001; status quo vs scenario 1 and scenario 2).

INTERPRETATION

Policies restricting women to give birth in facilities with caesarean section capabilities is likely to result in significant decreases in neonatal mortality and might allow Malawi to meet its goal of halving its neonatal mortality by 2030. However, this improvement comes at the cost of increased distances to care and worsening financial risks among women.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Damon Runyon Cancer Research Foundation.

Activity-specific mobility of adults in a rural region of western Kenya

Improving rural household access to resources such as markets, schools and healthcare can help alleviate poverty in low-income settings. Current models of geographic accessibility to various resources rarely take individual variation into account due to a lack of appropriate data, yet understanding mobility at an individual level is key to knowing how people access their local resources. Our study used both an activity-specific survey and GPS trackers to evaluate how adults in a rural area of western Kenya accessed local resources. We calculated the travel time and time spent at six different types of resource and compared the GPS and survey data to see how well they matched. We found links between several demographic characteristics and the time spent at different resources, and that the GPS data reflected the survey data well for time spent at some types of resource, but poorly for others. We conclude that demography and activity are important drivers of mobility, and a better understanding of individual variation in mobility could be obtained through the use of GPS trackers on a wider scale.

Estimating hospital catchments from in-patient admission records: a spatial statistical approach applied to malaria

Admission records are seldom used in sub-Saharan Africa to delineate hospital catchments for the spatial description of hospitalised disease events. We set out to investigate spatial hospital accessibility for severe malarial anaemia (SMA) and cerebral malaria (CM). Malaria admissions for children between 1 month and 14 years old were identified from prospective clinical surveillance data recorded routinely at four referral hospitals covering two complete years between December 2015 to November 2016 and November 2017 to October 2018. These were linked to census enumeration areas (EAs) with an age-structured population. A novel mathematical-statistical framework that included EAs with zero observations was used to predict hospital catchment for malaria admissions adjusting for spatial distance. From 5766 malaria admissions, 5486 (95.14%) were linked to specific EA address, of which 272 (5%) were classified as cerebral malaria while 1001 (10%) were severe malaria anaemia. Further, results suggest a marked geographic catchment of malaria admission around the four sentinel hospitals although the extent varied. The relative rate-ratio of hospitalisation was highest at <1-hour travel time for SMA and CM although this was lower outside the predicted hospital catchments. Delineation of catchments is important for planning emergency care delivery and in the use of hospital data to define epidemiological disease burdens. Further hospital and community-based studies on treatment-seeking pathways to hospitals for severe disease would improve our understanding of catchments.

Maternal mortality in Ifakara Health and Demographic Surveillance System: Spatial patterns, trends and risk factors, 2006 - 2010

Introduction

Maternal mortality was the subject of the United Nations’ fifth Millennium Development Goal which was to reduce the maternal mortality ratio by three quarters from 1990 to 2015. The Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), target 3.1 requires participating countries to reduce their maternal mortality ratio to less than 70 deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030. Although much research has been conducted, knowing the spatial patterns and risk factors associated with maternal mortality in developing countries helps target scarce resources and intervention programmes to high risk areas for the greatest impact.

Methods

Data were analysed from a longitudinal open cohort of women aged 15 to 49 years, enrolled from 2006 to 2010. An inverse distance weighted method of interpolation was used to assess spatial patterns of maternal mortality. Cox proportional hazards regression analysis was used to identify risk factors associated with maternal mortality.

Results

The overall maternal mortality rate for the 36 792 study participants for the five years was 0.79 per 1000 person years. The trend declined from 90.42 in 2006 to 57.42 in 2010. Marked geographical differences were observed in maternal mortality patterns. The main causes of maternal death were eclampsia (23%), haemorrhage (22%) and abortion-related complications (10%). There was a reduced risk of 82% (HR = 0.18, 95% CI:0.05–0.74) and 78% (HR = 0.22, 95% CI:0.05–0.92) for women aged 20–29 and 30–39 years, respectively, compared with those younger than 20 years. While being married had a protective effect of 94% (HR = 0.06, 95% CI: 0.01–0.51) compared with being single, women who were widowed had an increased risk of maternal death of 913% (HR = 9.13, 95% CI: 1.02–81.94). Women who belong to poorer, poor and least poor socioeconomic quintile had 84%, 71% and 72% reduction in risk of maternal mortality respectively compared to those in the poorest category (HR = 0.16, 95% CI: 0.06–0.42; HR = 0.29, 95% CI: 0.12–0.69; HR = 0.28, 95% CI: 0.10–0.80).

Conclusion

Maternal mortality has declined in rural southern Tanzania since 2006, with geographical differences in patterns of death. Eclampsia, haemorrhage and abortion-related complications are the three leading causes of maternal death in the region, with risk factors being younger than 20 years, being single or widowed, and having a low socioeconomic status.

Geographic Accessibility to Health Services and Neonatal Mortality Among Very-Low Birthweight Infants in South Carolina

Introduction Mortality for infants born with very-low birthweight (VLBW, 500-1499 grams) is markedly higher than for babies born with normal birthweight (2500-4000 grams). Although these high-risk infants show better outcomes in advanced care settings, only 80 % of VLBW infants born in South Carolina (SC) are delivered in hospitals with a level-III neonatal intensive care unit (NICU). The purpose of this research project was to assess geographic access to delivery hospitals and risk of neonatal death among singleton VLBW infants born in SC. Methods The linked birth and death records of a cross-sectional, population-based study of singleton VLBW infants born in SC between 2010 and 2012 were used (n = 2030). We assessed the impact of travel time from maternal residence to delivery hospital. Logistic regression modeling was performed with adjustments for maternal, newborn, and hospital characteristics. Results The neonatal mortality rate among singleton VLBW infants was 11.03 deaths per 100 live births in 2010-2012. We did not find a significant association between travel time to delivery hospital and neonatal mortality after adjusting for confounders. However, we found that a 1-week increase in gestational age (odds ratio (OR): 0.61) and non-Hispanic black mothers (versus non-Hispanic white mothers) (OR: 0.68) were associated with lower odds of neonatal death, whereas non-NICU admission at birth (OR: 5.90) was associated with increased odds of death. The results of the sensitivity analyses including both singleton and multiple births did not yield significant results for travel time and neonatal mortality in VLBW infants. Discussion Although we found no significant association between travel time and neonatal mortality in singleton VLBW births in SC, we identified significant factors consistent with those found in previous studies that may affect neonatal mortality.

The Enduring Challenge of Determining Pneumonia Etiology in Children: Considerations for Future Research Priorities

Pneumonia kills more children each year worldwide than any other disease. Nonetheless, accurately determining the causes of childhood pneumonia has remained elusive. Over the past century, the focus of pneumonia etiology research has shifted from studies of lung aspirates and postmortem specimens intent on identifying pneumococcal disease to studies of multiple specimen types distant from the lung that are tested for multiple pathogens. Some major challenges facing modern pneumonia etiology studies include the use of nonspecific and variable case definitions, poor access to pathologic lung tissue and to specimens from fatal cases, poor diagnostic accuracy of assays (especially when testing nonpulmonary specimens), and the interpretation of results when multiple pathogens are detected in a given individual. The future of childhood pneumonia etiology research will likely require integrating data from complementary approaches, including applications of advanced molecular diagnostics and vaccine probe studies, as well as a renewed emphasis on lung aspirates from radiologically confirmed pneumonia and postmortem examinations.

A retrospective cohort study to quantify the contribution of health systems to child survival in Kenya: 1996-2014

Globally, the majority of childhood deaths in the post-neonatal period are caused by infections that can be effectively treated or prevented with inexpensive interventions delivered through even very basic health facilities. To understand the role of inadequate health systems on childhood mortality in Kenya, we assemble a large, retrospective cohort of children (born 1996–2013) and describe the health systems context of each child using health facility survey data representative of the province at the time of a child’s birth. We examine the relationship between survival beyond 59 months of age and geographic distribution of health facilities, quality of services, and cost of services. We find significant geographic heterogeneity in survival that can be partially explained by differences in distribution of health facilities and user fees. Higher per capita density of health facilities resulted in a 25% reduction in the risk of death (HRR = 0.73, 95% CI:0.58 to 0.91) and accounted for 30% of the between-province heterogeneity in survival. User fees for sick-child visits increased risk by 30% (HRR = 1.30, 95% CI:1.11 to 1.53). These results implicate health systems constraints in child mortality, quantify the contribution of specific domains of health services, and suggest priority areas for improvement to accelerate reductions in child mortality.

Rural-Urban Differences in Trends in the Wealth Index in Kenya: 1993-2009

BACKGROUND

The aim of this study was to construct a wealth index that could be compared over time in order to understand the trends in wealth in Kenya and determine predictors of change in wealth index.

METHODS

Data were from the Demographic and Health Survey program collected in Kenya between 1993 and 2009. Variable categories were collapsed to match and factor analysis was performed on the 4-year pooled data to generate a harmonized wealth index. Possible predictors of wealth were selected from household variables available for all 4 years. Household sampling weights and stratification by rural/urban was used.

RESULTS

Overall, wealth increased in Kenya between 1993 and 2008; however, when stratified, no significant increase existed in urban areas and a significant increase was identified in rural areas specifically between 2003 and 2008. The strongest predictor was education, with more than a standard deviation difference for secondary or higher levels of education over those with no education. The association of gender of the head of household and whether the head of household had a partner differed between rural and urban areas, with household heads who were women and those who had a partner having more wealth in urban areas but less wealth in rural areas.

CONCLUSION

Wealth in Kenya increased over time, specifically in rural regions. Differences were identified in predictors of wealth by urban/rural residence, educational level, and gender of the head of household and should be taken into account when planning interventions to target those in disproportionately low wealth brackets.

Changes in Optimal Childcare Practices in Kenya: Insights from the 2003, 2008-9 and 2014 Demographic and Health Surveys

Objective(s)

Using nationally representative surveys conducted in Kenya, this study examined optimal health promoting childcare practices in 2003, 2008–9 and 2014. This was undertaken in the context of continuous child health promotion activities conducted by government and non-government organizations throughout Kenya. It was the aim of such activities to increase the prevalence of health promoting childcare practices; to what extent have there been changes in optimal childcare practices in Kenya during the 11-year period under study?

Methods

Cross-sectional data were obtained from the Kenya Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in 2003, 2008–9 and 2014. Women 15–49 years old with children 0–59 months were interviewed about a range of childcare practices. Logistic regression analysis was used to examine changes in, and correlates of, optimal childcare practices using the 2003, 2008–9 and 2014 data. Samples of 5949, 6079 and 20964 women interviewed in 2003, 2008–9 and 2014 respectively were used in the analysis.

Results

Between 2003 and 2014, there were increases in all health facility-based childcare practices with major increases observed in seeking medical treatment for diarrhoea and complete child vaccination. Mixed results were observed in home-based care where increases were noted in the use of insecticide treated bed nets, sanitary stool disposal and use of oral rehydration solutions, while decreases were observed in the prevalence of urging more fluid/food during diarrhoea and consumption of a minimum acceptable diet. Logit models showed that area of residence (region), household wealth, maternal education, parity, mother's age, child’s age and pregnancy history were significant determinants of optimal childcare practices across the three surveys.

Conclusions

The study observed variation in the uptake of the recommended optimal childcare practices in Kenya. National, regional and local child health promotion activities, coupled with changes in society and in living conditions between 2003 and 2014, could have influenced uptake of certain recommended childcare practices in Kenya. Decreases in the prevalence of children who were offered same/more fluid/food when they had diarrhea and children who consumed the minimum acceptable diet is alarming and perhaps a red flag to stakeholders who may have focused more on health facility-based care at the expense of home-based care. Concerted efforts are needed to address the consistent inequities in the uptake of the recommended childcare practices. Such efforts should be cognizant of the underlying factors that affect childcare in Kenya, herein defined as region, household wealth, maternal education, parity, mother's age, child’s age and pregnancy history.

Beyond distance: an approach to measure effective access to case management for sick children in Africa

Health planners commonly use geographic proximity to define access to health services. However, effective access to case management requires reliable access to a trained, supplied provider. We defined effective access as the proportion of the study population with geographic access, corrected for other barriers, staffing patterns, and medicine availability. We measured effective access through a cross-sectional survey of 32 health facilities in Malawi, Mali, and Zambia and modeled the potential contribution of community case management (CCM). The population living within Ministry of Health (MOH)–defined geographic access was 43% overall (range = 18–52%), but effective access was only 14% overall (range = 9–17%). Implementing CCM as per MOH plans increased geographic access to 63–90% and effective access to 30–57%. Access to case management is much worse than typically estimated by distance. The CCM increases access dramatically, again if providers are available and supplied, and should be considered even for those within MOH-defined access areas.

Quantifying the impact of accessibility on preventive healthcare in sub-Saharan Africa using mobile phone data

BACKGROUND

Poor physical access to health facilities has been identified as an important contributor to reduced uptake of preventive health services and is likely to be most critical in low-income settings. However, the relation among physical access, travel behavior, and the uptake of healthcare is difficult to quantify.

METHODS

Using anonymized mobile phone data from 2008 to 2009, we analyze individual and spatially aggregated travel patterns of 14,816,521 subscribers across Kenya and compare these measures to (1) estimated travel times to health facilities and (2) data on the uptake of 2 preventive healthcare interventions in an area of western Kenya: childhood immunizations and antenatal care.

RESULTS

We document that long travel times to health facilities are strongly correlated with increased mobility in geographically isolated areas. Furthermore, we found that in areas with equal physical access to healthcare, mobile phone-derived measures of mobility predict which regions are lacking preventive care.

CONCLUSIONS

Routinely collected mobile phone data provide a simple and low-cost approach to mapping the uptake of preventive healthcare in low-income settings.

Maternal mortality and distance to facility-based obstetric care in rural southern Tanzania: a secondary analysis of cross-sectional census data in 226 000 households

BACKGROUND

Access to skilled obstetric delivery and emergency care is deemed crucial for reducing maternal mortality. We assessed pregnancy-related mortality by distance to health facilities and by cause of death in a disadvantaged rural area of southern Tanzania.

METHODS

We did a secondary analysis of cross-sectional georeferenced census data collected from June to October, 2007, in five rural districts of southern Tanzania. Heads of georeferenced households were asked about household deaths in the period June 1, 2004, to May 31, 2007, and women aged 13-49 years were interviewed about birth history in the same time period. Causes of death in women of reproductive age were ascertained by verbal autopsy. We also asked for sociodemographic information. Multilevel logistic regression was used to analyse the effects of distance to health facilities providing delivery care on pregnancy-related mortality (direct and indirect maternal and coincidental deaths).

FINDINGS

The study included 818 583 people living in 225 980 households. Pregnancy-related mortality was high at 712 deaths per 100 000 livebirths, with haemorrhage being the leading cause of death. Deaths due to direct causes of maternal mortality were strongly related to distance, with mortality increasing from 111 per 100 000 livebirths among women who lived within 5 km to 422 deaths per 100 000 livebirths among those who lived more than 35 km from a hospital (adjusted odds ratio 3·68; 95% CI 1·37-9·88). Neither pregnancy-related nor indirect maternal mortality was associated with distance to hospital. Among women who lived within 5 km of a hospital, pregnancy-related mortality was 664 deaths per 100 000 livebirths even though 72% gave birth in hospital and 8% had delivery by caesarean section.

INTERPRETATION

Large distances to hospital contribute to high levels of direct obstetric mortality. High pregnancy-related mortality in those living near to a hospital suggests deficiencies in quality of care.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Spatial analysis of under-5 mortality and potential risk factors in the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System, the Gambia

OBJECTIVES

To describe the spatial pattern in under-5 mortality rates in the Basse Health and Demographic Surveillance System (BHDSS) and to test for associations between under-5 deaths and biodemographic and socio-economic risk factors.

METHODS

Using data on child survival from 2007 to 2011 in the BHDSS, we mapped under-5 mortality by km(2) . We tested for spatial clustering of high or low death rates using Kulldorff's spatial scan statistic. Associations between child death and a variety of biodemographic and socio-economic factors were assessed with Cox proportional hazards models, and deviance residuals from the best-fitting model were tested for spatial clustering.

RESULTS

The overall death rate among children under 5 was 0.0195 deaths per child-year. We found two spatial clusters of high death rates and one spatial cluster of low death rates; children in the two high clusters died at a rate of 0.0264 and 0.0292 deaths per child-year, while in the low cluster, the rate was 0.0144 deaths per child-year. We also found that children born to Fula mothers experienced, on average, a higher hazard of death, whereas children born in the households in the upper two quintiles of asset ownership experienced, on average, a lower hazard of death. After accounting for the spatial distribution of biodemographic and socio-economic characteristics, we found no residual spatial pattern in child mortality risk.

CONCLUSION

This study demonstrates that significant inequality in under-5 death rates can occur within a relatively small area (1100 km(2) ). Risks of under-5 mortality were associated with mother's ethnicity and household wealth. If high mortality clusters persist, then equity concerns may require additional public health efforts in those areas.

Surgical patients travel longer distances than non-surgical patients to receive care at a rural hospital in Mozambique

BACKGROUND

Surgical care is increasingly recognised as an important component of global health delivery. However, there are still major gaps in knowledge related to access to surgical care in low-income countries. In this study, we compare distances travelled by surgical patients with patients seeking other medical services at a first-level hospital in rural Mozambique.

METHODS

Data were collected on all inpatients at Hospital Rural de Chókwè in rural Mozambique between 20 June 2012 and 3 August 2012. Euclidean distances travelled by surgical versus non-surgical patients using coordinates of each patient's city of residence were compared. Data were analysed using ArcGIS 10 and STATA.

RESULTS

In total, 500 patients were included. Almost one-half (47.6%) lived in the city where the hospital is based. By hospital ward, the majority (62.0%) of maternity patients came from within the hospital's city compared with only 35.2% of surgical patients. The average distance travelled was longest for surgical patients (42 km) compared with an average of 17 km for patients on all other wards.

CONCLUSIONS

Patients seeking surgical care at this first-level hospital travel farther than patients seeking other services. While other patients may have access to at community clinics, surgical patients depend more heavily on the services available at first-level hospitals.

Monitoring the ability to deliver care in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review of health facility assessment tools

Introduction Health facilities assessments are an essential instrument for health system strengthening in low- and middle-income countries. These assessments are used to conduct health facility censuses to assess the capacity of the health system to deliver health care and to identify gaps in the coverage of health services. Despite the valuable role of these assessments, there are currently no minimum standards or frameworks for these tools.

Methods We used a structured keyword search of the MEDLINE, EMBASE and HealthStar databases and searched the websites of the World Health Organization, the World Bank and the International Health Facilities Assessment Network to locate all available health facilities assessment tools intended for use in low- and middle-income countries. We parsed the various assessment tools to identify similarities between them, which we catalogued into a framework comprising 41 assessment domains.

Results We identified 10 health facility assessment tools meeting our inclusion criteria, all of which were included in our analysis. We found substantial variation in the comprehensiveness of the included tools, with the assessments containing indicators in 13 to 33 (median: 25.5) of the 41 assessment domains included in our framework. None of the tools collected data on all 41 of the assessment domains we identified.

Conclusions Not only do a large number of health facility assessment tools exist, but the data they collect and methods they employ are very different. This certainly limits the comparability of the data between different countries’ health systems and probably creates blind spots that impede efforts to strengthen those systems. Agreement is needed on the essential elements of health facility assessments to guide the development of specific indicators and for refining existing instruments.

Severe lower respiratory tract infection in early infancy and pneumonia hospitalizations among children, Kenya

Close postdischarge follow-up could help prevent future severe respiratory disease.

Severe lower respiratory tract infection (LRTI) in infants caused by respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) has been associated with later pneumonia hospitalization among children. To determine risk for pneumonia after RSV hospitalization in infancy, we conducted a retrospective cohort analysis of 2,813 infants admitted to a hospital in Kenya and identified readmissions for pneumonia among this group during early childhood (<60 months of age). Incidence of readmission for pneumonia was higher for children whose first admission as infants was for LRTI and who were <3 months of age than for children who were first admitted as infants for non-LRTI, irrespective of RSV status. Incidence of readmission for pneumonia with wheeze was higher for children whose first admission involved RSV compared with those who had non-RSV LRTI. Excess pneumonia risk persisted for 2 years after the initial hospitalization. Close postdischarge follow-up of infants with LRTI, with or without RSV, could help prevent severe pneumonia later in childhood.

A systematic review and thematic synthesis of qualitative studies on maternal emergency transport in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Most maternal deaths are preventable with emergency obstetric care; therefore, ensuring access is essential. There is little focused information on emergency transport of pregnant women.

OBJECTIVES

The literature on emergency transport of pregnant women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) was systematically reviewed and synthesized to explore current practices, barriers, and facilitators for transport utilization.

SEARCH STRATEGY

MEDLINE, EMBASE, BNI, Cochrane Library, CINAHL, African Index Medicus, ASSIA, QUALIDATA, RHL, and Science Citation Index (inception to April 2012) were searched without language restriction.

SELECTION CRITERIA

Studies using qualitative methodology and reporting on emergency transportation in LMICs were included.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Thematic framework and synthesis through examination and translation of common elements were used to analyze and synthesize the data.

MAIN RESULTS

Twenty-nine articles were included. Eight major themes were identified: time for transport; transport options; geography; local support; autonomy; culture; finance; and ergonomics. Key issues were transport availability; transport speed; terrain; meteorology; support; dependence for decision making; cultural issues; cost; and lack of safe, comfortable positioning during transport.

CONCLUSION

Themes should be appreciated within local contexts to illuminate barriers and facilitators. Potential solutions include motorcycle ambulance programs, collaboration with taxi services, community education, subsidies, and vehicle maintenance.

Globalization, Distance and Disease: Spatial Health Disparities in Rural India

More than 50 per cent of the Indian population lives in villages that are located more than five kilometres from the nearest town. This half of India is more likely to experience illnesses of different kinds and simultaneously less likely to get qualified medical treatment. The incidence of premature deaths, infant and child mortality and malnutrition are all significantly higher within villages located further from towns. In consequence, such villagers are more susceptible than others to being overcome by the medical poverty trap. Poverty has increased within villages located more than five kilometres from towns, even as the national economy was surging ahead. Globalization privileges cities, disadvantaging locations at greater distances from towns. Public policy is required to compensate. Efforts to limit spatial inequalities must take precedence in future health policies.

Birth seasonality as a response to a changing rural environment (Kayes region, Mali)

Birth seasonality responds to a variety of environmental and socio-cultural factors. The present study was carried out to quantify the trends in seasonal variation in birth rate in seven districts in the Kayes region of Mali between 2007 and 2010 and to attempt to link climatic- and agricultural-cycle-dependent factors with birth seasonality. Lagged regression analysis based on time series analysis techniques was used to investigate seasonality of births registered in health facilities and its association with climate, labour migration, agriculture workload, malaria infection and food supply. There was a clear bimodal pattern in month-to-month institutional delivery rate variation, and this seasonal pattern repeated each year over the study period. The data showed that rates of health-facility-attended deliveries were high at the end of the dry season (April-June), fell rapidly in the first half of the rainy season, rose again during the later part of the rainy season (August-October) and fell to their lowest values after the rains. The first peak observed in spring (April-June) corresponded to conception nine months earlier during the rainy season (between July and September), while the second peak observed in the third quarter of the year (August-October) corresponded with conception at the beginning of the dry season right after the harvest period (between November and January). Between these peaks was an abrupt trough in July. The findings support a causal process through which climate change influences conception/birth seasonality in two direct and indirect pathways. On one side climate change influences conception/birth seasonality from the effects on fetal loss (changes in annual rainfall leading to changes in malaria incidence) and on the other side by affecting fecundability (changes in agricultural cycles leading to changes in food production, agricultural workload and socio-cultural events, which in turn influence energy balance and sexual behaviour). Labour migration, which is closely linked with the agricultural cycle, influences sexual intercourse and thus marital fertility. Finally, the model emphasizes an eco-systemic approach to the study of birth seasonality.

Geographical accessibility and spatial coverage modeling of the primary health care network in the Western Province of Rwanda

Background

Primary health care is essential in improving and maintaining the health of populations. It has the potential to accelerate achievement of the Millennium Development Goals and fulfill the “Health for All” doctrine of the Alma-Ata Declaration. Understanding the performance of the health system from a geographic perspective is important for improved health planning and evidence-based policy development. The aims of this study were to measure geographical accessibility, model spatial coverage of the existing primary health facility network, estimate the number of primary health facilities working under capacity and the population underserved in the Western Province of Rwanda.

Methods

This study uses health facility, population and ancillary data for the Western Province of Rwanda. Three different travel scenarios utilized by the population to attend the nearest primary health facility were defined with a maximum travelling time of 60 minutes: Scenario 1 – walking; Scenario 2 – walking and cycling; and Scenario 3 – walking and public transportation. Considering these scenarios, a raster surface of travel time between primary health facilities and population was developed. To model spatial coverage and estimate the number of primary health facilities working under capacity, the catchment area of each facility was calculated by taking into account population coverage capacity, the population distribution, the terrain topography and the travelling modes through the different land categories.

Results

Scenario 2 (walking and cycling) has the highest degree of geographical accessibility followed by Scenario 3 (walking and public transportation). The lowest level of accessibility can be observed in Scenario 1 (walking). The total population covered differs depending on the type of travel scenario. The existing primary health facility network covers only 26.6% of the population in Scenario 1. In Scenario 2, the use of a bicycle greatly increases the population being served to 58% of inhabitants. When considering Scenario 3, the total population served is 34.3%.

Conclusions

Significant spatial variations in geographical accessibility and spatial coverage were observed across the three travel scenarios. The analysis demonstrates that regardless of which travel scenario is used, the majority of the population in the Western Province does not have access to the existing primary health facility network. Our findings also demonstrate the usefulness of GIS methods to leverage multiple datasets from different sources in a spatial framework to provide support to evidence-based planning and resource allocation decision-making in developing countries.

Profile: The Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS)

Summary The Kilifi Health and Demographic Surveillance System (KHDSS), located on the Indian Ocean coast of Kenya, was established in 2000 as a record of births, pregnancies, migration events and deaths and is maintained by 4-monthly household visits. The study area was selected to capture the majority of patients admitted to Kilifi District Hospital. The KHDSS has 260 000 residents and the hospital admits 4400 paediatric patients and 3400 adult patients per year. At the hospital, morbidity events are linked in real time by a computer search of the population register. Linked surveillance was extended to KHDSS vaccine clinics in 2008.

KHDSS data have been used to define the incidence of hospital presentation with childhood infectious diseases (e.g. rotavirus diarrhoea, pneumococcal disease), to test the association between genetic risk factors (e.g. thalassaemia and sickle cell disease) and infectious diseases, to define the community prevalence of chronic diseases (e.g. epilepsy), to evaluate access to health care and to calculate the operational effectiveness of major public health interventions (e.g. conjugate Haemophilus influenzae type b vaccine). Rapport with residents is maintained through an active programme of community engagement. A system of collaborative engagement exists for sharing data on survival, morbidity, socio-economic status and vaccine coverage.

Effect of geographical access to health facilities on child mortality in rural Ethiopia: a community based cross sectional study

Background

There have been few studies that have examined associations between access to health care and child health outcomes in remote populations most in need of health services. This study assessed the effect of travel time and distance to health facilities on mortality in children under five years in a remote area of rural north-western Ethiopia.

Methods and Findings

This study involved a randomly selected cross sectional survey of 2,058 households. Data were collected during home visits to all resident women of reproductive age (15–49 years). A geographic information system (GIS) was used to map all households and the only health centre in the district. The analysis was restricted to 2,206 rural children who were under the age of five years during the five years before the survey. Data were analysed using random effects Poisson regression. 90.4% (1,996/2,206) of children lived more than 1.5 hours walk from the health centre. Children who lived ≥1.5 hrs from the health centre had a two to three fold greater risk of death than children who lived <1.5 hours from the health centre (children with travel time 1.5–<2.5 hrs adjusted relative risk [adjRR] 2.3[0.95–5.6], travel time 2.5–<3.5 hrs adjRR 3.1[1.3–7.4] and travel time 3.5–<6.5 hrs adjRR 2.5[1.1–6.2]).

Conclusion

Distance to a health centre had a marked influence on under five mortality in a poor, rural, remote area of Ethiopia. This study provides important information for policy makers on the likely impact of new health centres and their most effective location in remote areas.

Geographic Information System and tools of spatial analysis in a pneumococcal vaccine trial

BACKGROUND

The goal of this Geographic Information System (GIS) study was to obtain accurate information on the locations of study subjects, road network and services for research purposes so that the clinical outcomes of interest (e.g., vaccine efficacy, burden of disease, nasopharyngeal colonization and its reduction) could be linked and analyzed at a distance from health centers, hospitals, doctors and other important services. The information on locations can be used to investigate more accurate crowdedness, herd immunity and/or transmission patterns.

METHOD

A randomized, placebo-controlled, double-blind trial of an 11-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (11PCV) was conducted in Bohol Province in central Philippines, from July 2000 to December 2004. We collected the information on the geographic location of the households (N = 13,208) of study subjects. We also collected a total of 1982 locations of health and other services in the six municipalities and a comprehensive GIS data over the road network in the area.

RESULTS

We calculated the numbers of other study subjects (vaccine and placebo recipients, respectively) within the neighborhood of each study subject. We calculated distances to different services and identified the subjects sharing the same services (calculated by distance). This article shows how to collect a complete GIS data set for human to human transmitted vaccine study in developing country settings in an efficient and economical way.

CONCLUSIONS

The collection of geographic locations in intervention trials should become a routine task. The results of public health research may highly depend on spatial relationships among the study subjects and between the study subjects and the environment, both natural and infrastructural.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

ISRCTN: ISRCTN62323832.

Proximity to health services and child survival in low- and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

Few studies have systematically examined the effects of barriers such as distance to health facilities on child survival in low- and middle-income countries. Our primary objective was to estimate the effect of proximity to health facilities on child survival in low- and middle-income countries. The secondary objective was to compare effects in different age categories (perinatal (28 weeks of gestation to 1 week of age), neonatal (0-27 days), infant (0-11 months) and child (0-59 months) mortality).

DESIGN

A systematic review and meta-analysis was conducted of studies published from 1980 to 2012 that assessed the effect of proximity to health facilities on child survival in low- and middle-income countries. Synthesis was by random-effects meta-analysis, and variation between studies was investigated by meta-regression.

SETTING

Low- and middle-income countries.

PARTICIPANTS

13 studies were included in the meta-analysis, 11 from low-income and two from middle-income countries and none were from remote areas.

PRIMARY OUTCOME MEASURES

The primary outcome measures of interest were perinatal, neonatal, infant and child mortality.

RESULTS

Overall, children who lived farthest from health facilities were more likely to die compared with those who lived closer (OR 1.32, 95% CI 1.19 to 1.47). This effect appeared stronger during the perinatal (OR 2.76, 95% CI 1.80 to 4.24) and neonatal (OR 1.98, 95% CI 1.43 to 2.72) periods compared with the infant (OR 1.18, 95% CI 1.0 to 1.38) and under-5 (OR 1.20, 95% CI 1.04 to 1.39) periods.

CONCLUSIONS

Proximity to health facilities appears to be an important determinant of under-5 mortality in low- and middle-income countries, especially in the perinatal and neonatal periods. Higher quality studies are needed, which examine the effect of access to health services on child survival, especially studies from remote areas and hard to reach populations.

Excess child mortality after discharge from hospital in Kilifi, Kenya: a retrospective cohort analysis

OBJECTIVE

To explore excess paediatric mortality after discharge from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and its duration and risk factors.

METHODS

Hospital and demographic data were used to describe post-discharge mortality and survival probability in children aged < 15 years, by age group and clinical syndrome. Cox regression models were developed to identify risk factors.

FINDINGS

In 2004-2008, approximately 111,000 children were followed for 555,000 person-years. We analysed 14,971 discharges and 535 deaths occurring within 365 days of discharge. Mortality was higher in the post-discharge cohort than in the community cohort (age-adjusted rate ratio, RR: 7.7; 95% confidence interval, CI: 6.6-8.9) and declined little over time. An increased post-discharge mortality hazard was found in children aged < 5 years with the following: weight-for-age Z score < -4 (hazard ratio, HR: 6.5); weight-for-age Z score > -4 but < -3 (HR: 3.4); hypoxia (HR: 2.3); bacteraemia (HR: 1.8); hepatomegaly (HR: 2.3); jaundice (HR: 1.8); hospital stay > 13 days (HR: 1.8). Older age was protective (reference < 1 month): 6-23 months, HR: 0.8; 2-4 years, HR: 0.6. Children with at least one risk factor accounted for 545 (33%) of the 1655 annual discharges and for 39 (47%) of the 83 discharge-associated deaths.

CONCLUSION

Hospital admission selects vulnerable children with a sustained increased risk of dying. The risk factors identified provide an empiric basis for effective outpatient follow-up.

The effect of distance to health-care facilities on childhood mortality in rural Burkina Faso

This study aims to investigate the relation between distance to health facilities, measured as continuous travel time, and mortality among infants and children younger than 5 years of age in rural Burkina Faso, an area with low health facility density. The study included 24,555 children born between 1993 and 2005 in the Nouna Health and Demographic Surveillance System. The average walking time from each village to the closest health facility was obtained for both the dry and the rainy season, and its effect on infant (<1 year), child (1-4 years), and under-5 mortality overall was analyzed by Cox regression. The authors observed 3,426 childhood deaths, corresponding to a 5-year survival of 85%. Walking distance was significantly related to both infant and child mortality, although the shape of this effect varied distinctly between the 2 age groups. Overall, under-5 mortality, adjusted for confounding, was more than 50% higher at a distance of 4 hours compared with having a health facility in the village (P < 0.0001, 2 sided). The region of residence was an additional determinant for under-5 mortality. The findings of this study emphasize the importance of geographic accessibility of health care for child survival in sub-Saharan Africa and demonstrate the need to improve health-care access to achieve the Millennium Development Goals.

Young and vulnerable: spatial-temporal trends and risk factors for infant mortality in rural South Africa (Agincourt), 1992-2007

BACKGROUND

Infant mortality is an important indicator of population health in a country. It is associated with several health determinants, such as maternal health, access to high-quality health care, socioeconomic conditions, and public health policy and practices.

METHODS

A spatial-temporal analysis was performed to assess changes in infant mortality patterns between 1992-2007 and to identify factors associated with infant mortality risk in the Agincourt sub-district, rural northeast South Africa. Period, sex, refugee status, maternal and fertility-related factors, household mortality experience, distance to nearest primary health care facility, and socio-economic status were examined as possible risk factors. All-cause and cause-specific mortality maps were developed to identify high risk areas within the study site. The analysis was carried out by fitting Bayesian hierarchical geostatistical negative binomial autoregressive models using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Simulation-based Bayesian kriging was used to produce maps of all-cause and cause-specific mortality risk.

RESULTS

Infant mortality increased significantly over the study period, largely due to the impact of the HIV epidemic. There was a high burden of neonatal mortality (especially perinatal) with several hot spots observed in close proximity to health facilities. Significant risk factors for all-cause infant mortality were mother's death in first year (most commonly due to HIV), death of previous sibling and increasing number of household deaths. Being born to a Mozambican mother posed a significant risk for infectious and parasitic deaths, particularly acute diarrhoea and malnutrition.

CONCLUSIONS

This study demonstrates the use of Bayesian geostatistical models in assessing risk factors and producing smooth maps of infant mortality risk in a health and socio-demographic surveillance system. Results showed marked geographical differences in mortality risk across a relatively small area. Prevention of vertical transmission of HIV and survival of mothers during the infants' first year in high prevalence villages needs to be urgently addressed, including expanded antenatal testing, prevention of mother-to-child transmission, and improved access to antiretroviral therapy. There is also need to assess and improve the capacity of district hospitals for emergency obstetric and newborn care. Persisting risk factors, including inadequate provision of clean water and sanitation, are yet to be fully addressed.

Sensitivity of hospital-based surveillance for severe disease: a geographic information system analysis of access to care in Kilifi district, Kenya

OBJECTIVE

To explore the relationship between homestead distance to hospital and access to care and to estimate the sensitivity of hospital-based surveillance in Kilifi district, Kenya.

METHODS

In 2002-2006, clinical information was obtained from all children admitted to Kilifi District Hospital and linked to demographic surveillance data. Travel times to the hospital were calculated using geographic information systems and regression models were constructed to examine the relationships between travel time, cause-specific hospitalization rates and probability of death in hospital. Access to care ratios relating hospitalization rates to community mortality rates were computed and used to estimate surveillance sensitivity.

FINDINGS

The analysis included 7200 admissions (64 per 1000 child-years). Median pedestrian and vehicular travel times to hospital were 237 and 61 minutes, respectively. Hospitalization rates decreased by 21% per hour of travel by foot and 28% per half hour of travel by vehicle. Distance decay was steeper for meningitis than for pneumonia, for females than for males, and for areas where mothers had less education on average. Distance was positively associated with the probability of dying in hospital. Overall access to care ratios, which represent the probability that a child in need of hospitalization will have access to care at the hospital, were 51-58% for pneumonia and 66-70% for meningitis.

CONCLUSION

In this setting, hospital utilization rates decreased and the severity of cases admitted to hospital increased as distance between homestead and hospital increased. Access to hospital care for children living in remote areas was low, particularly for those with less severe conditions. Distance decay was attenuated by increased levels of maternal education. Hospital-based surveillance underestimated pneumonia and meningitis incidence by more than 45% and 30%, respectively.

Spatial and socio-demographic predictors of time-to-immunization in a rural area in Kenya: Is equity attainable?

We conducted a vaccine coverage survey in Kilifi District, Kenya in order to identify predictors of childhood immunization. We calculated travel time to vaccine clinics and examined its relationship to immunization coverage and timeliness among the 2169 enrolled children (median age: 12.5 months). 86% had vaccine cards available, >95% had received three doses of DTP-HepB-Hib and polio vaccines and 88% of measles. Travel time did not affect vaccination coverage or timeliness. The Kenyan EPI reaches nearly all children in Kilifi and delays in vaccination are few, suggesting that vaccines will have maximal impact on child morbidity and mortality.