Intervening in global markets to improve access to HIV/AIDS treatment: an analysis of international policies and the dynamics of global antiretroviral medicines markets

WHO Model list of essential medicines: visions for the future

The first version of the World Health Organization Model list of essential medicines contained 186 medicines in 1977 and has evolved to include 502 medicines in 2023. Over time, different articles criticized the methods and process for decisions; however, the list holds global relevance as a model list to over 150 national lists. Given the global use of the model list, reflecting on its future role is imperative to understand how the list should evolve and respond to the needs of Member States. In 2023, the model list Expert Committee recommended the World Health Organization (WHO) to initiate a process to revise the procedures for updating the model list and the criteria guiding decisions. Here, we offer an agenda outlining priority areas and a vision for an authoritative model list. The main areas include improving transparency and trustworthiness of the recommendations; strengthening connection to national lists; and continuing the debate on the principles that should guide the model list, in particular the role of cost and price of essential medicines. These reflections are intended to support efforts ensuring the continued impact of this policy tool.

User-experience testing of an evidence-to-decision framework for selecting essential medicines

Essential medicine lists (EMLs) are important medicine prioritization tools used by the World Health Organization (WHO) EML and over 130 countries. The criteria used by WHO's Expert Committee on the Selection and Use of Essential Medicines has parallels to the GRADE Evidence-to-Decision (EtD) frameworks. In this study, we explored the EtD frameworks and a visual abstract as adjunctive tools to strengthen the integrate evidence and improve the transparency of decisions of EML applications. We conducted user-experience testing interviews of key EML stakeholders using Morville's honeycomb model. Interviews explored multifaceted dimensions (e.g., usability) on two EML applications for the 2021 WHO EML-long-acting insulin analogues for diabetes and immune checkpoint inhibitors for lung cancer. Using a pre-determined coding framework and thematic analysis we iteratively improved both the EtD framework and the visual abstract. We coded the transcripts of 17 interviews with 13 respondents in 103 locations of the interview texts across all dimensions of the user-experience honeycomb. Respondents felt the EtD framework and visual abstract presented complementary useful and findable adjuncts to the traditional EML application. They felt this would increase transparency and efficiency in evidence assessed by EML committees. As EtD frameworks are also used in health practice guidelines, including those by the WHO, respondents articulated that the adoption of the EtD by EML applications represents a tangible mechanism to align EMLs and guidelines, decrease duplication of work and improve coordination. Improvements were made to clarify instructions for the EtD and visual abstract, and to refine the design and content included. 'Availability' was added as an additional criterion for EML applications to highlight this criterion in alignment with WHO EML criteria. EtD frameworks and visual abstracts present additional important tools to communicate evidence and support decision-criteria in EML applications, which have global health impact. Access to essential medicines is important for achieving universal health coverage, and the development of essential medicine lists should be as evidence-based and trustworthy as possible.

Decision criteria for selecting essential medicines and their connection to guidelines: an interpretive descriptive qualitative interview study

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The World Health Organization Model List of Essential Medicines has led to at least 137 national lists. Essential medicines should be grounded in evidence-based guideline recommendations and explicit decision criteria. Essential medicines should be available, accessible, affordable, and the supporting evidence should be accompanied by a rating of the certainty one can place in it. Our objectives were to identify criteria and considerations that should be addressed in moving from a guideline recommendation regarding a medicine to the decision of whether to add, maintain, or remove a medicine from an essential medicines list. We also seek to explore opportunities to improve organizational processes to support evidence-based health decision-making more broadly.

METHODS

We conducted a qualitative study with semistructured interviews of key informant stakeholders in the development and use of guidelines and essential medicine lists (EMLs). We used an interpretive descriptive analysis approach and thematic analysis of interview transcripts in NVIVO v12.

RESULTS

We interviewed 16 key informants working at national and global levels across all WHO regions. We identified five themes: three descriptive/explanatory themes 1) EMLs and guidelines, the same, but different; 2) EMLs can drive price reductions and improve affordability and access; 3) Time lag and disconnect between guidelines and EMLs; and two prescriptive themes 4) An "evidence pipeline" could improve coordination between guidelines and EMLs; 5) Facilitating the link between the WHO Model List of Essential Medicines (WHO EML) and national EMLs could increase alignment.

CONCLUSION

We found significant overlap and opportunities for alignment between guideline and essential medicine decision processes. This finding presents opportunities for guideline and EML developers to enhance strategies for collaboration. Future research should assess and evaluate these strategies in practice to support the shared goal of guidelines and EMLs: improvements in health.

Addressing Failures in Achieving Hypertension Control in Low- and Middle-Income Settings through Simplified Treatment Algorithms

Hypertension is the most important risk factor for cardiovascular diseases (CVDs), which are the leading global cause of death. Hypertension is under-diagnosed and under-treated in most low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Current algorithms for hypertension treatment are complex for the healthcare worker, limit decentralization, complicate procurement and often translate to a large pill burden for the person with hypertension. We summarize evidence supporting implementation of simple, algorithmic, accessible, non-toxic and effective (SAANE) algorithms to provide a feasible way to access and maintain quality care for hypertension. Implementation of these algorithms will enable task shifting to less specialised health care workers and lay cadres, provision of fixed dose combinations, consolidation of the market while retaining generic competition, simplification of laboratory requirements, and lowering costs for health systems and people who incur out of pocket expenses.

The economic and public health impact of intellectual property licensing of medicines for low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Non-exclusive voluntary licensing that is access-oriented has been suggested as an option to increase access to medicines to address the COVID-19 pandemic. To date, there has been little research on the effect of licensing, mainly focused on economic and supply chain considerations, and not on the benefits in terms of health outcomes. We aimed to study the economic and health effect of voluntary licensing for medicines for HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

METHODS

A robust modelling framework was created to examine the difference between scenarios, with (factual) and without (counterfactual) a Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) licence for two medicines, dolutegravir and daclatasvir. Data were obtained from MPP licensees, as well as a large number of external sources. The primary outcomes were the cost savings and health impact between scenarios with and without MPP licences across all LMICs. Through its licences, MPP had access to the volumes and prices of licensed generic products sold in all covered countries on a quarterly basis. These data informed the volumes, prices, and uptake for the past factual scenarios and were the basis for modelling the future factual scenarios. These scenarios were then compared with a set of counterfactual scenarios in the absence of the studied licences.

FINDINGS

Cumulatively, between 2017 and 2032, the model's central assumptions predicted an additional uptake of 15·494 (range 14·406-15·494) million patient-years of dolutegravir-based HIV treatments, 151 839 (34 575-312 973) deaths averted, and US$3·074 (1·837-5·617) billion saved through the MPP licence compared with the counterfactual scenario. For daclatasvir-based HCV treatments, the cumulative effect from 2015 to 2026 was predicted to be an additional uptake of 428 244 (127 584-636 270) patients treated with daclatasvir, 4070 (225-6323) deaths averted, and $107·593 (30·377-121·284) million saved with the licence compared with the counterfactual scenario.

INTERPRETATION

The chain of effects linking upstream licensing to downstream outcomes can be modelled. Accordingly, credible quantitative estimates of economic and health effects arising from access-oriented voluntary licensing were obtained based on assumptions that early generic competition leads to price reductions that influence procurement decisions and enable the faster and broader uptake of recommended medicines, with beneficial economic and health effects.

FUNDING

Unitaid.

Market Formation in a Global Health Transition

Transition studies have started to focus on market formation in innovation systems. This article investigates market formation in a global health transition that was instigated by drug-resistant malaria. We explore how markets for Artemisinin-based Combination Therapies (ACT) in the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) were formed at multiple geographical scales and locations. The study reveals the role of public institutes, academia and partnerships in early innovation system development. It demonstrates how transnational organizations created a supportive global landscape for ACT development and deployment. It then reveals how these advancements led to the formation of public-sector and private-sector ACT markets in the GMS. We illustrate how market formation activities took place on global, national and local scales and how structural couplings enabled the functioning of this global innovation system. The lessons learned are particularly relevant now that drug-resistant malaria has once more emerged in the GMS, urgently calling for new therapies and associated end-user markets.

The influence of constraints on the efficient allocation of resources for HIV prevention

OBJECTIVE

To investigate how 'real-world' constraints on the allocative and technical efficiency of HIV prevention programmes affect resource allocation and the number of infections averted.

DESIGN

Epidemiological modelling and economic analyses in Benin, South Africa and Tanzania.

METHODS

We simulated different HIV prevention programmes, and first determined the most efficient allocation of resources, in which the HIV prevention budget is shared among specific interventions, risk-groups and provinces to maximize the number of infections averted. We then identified the efficient allocation of resources and achievable impact given the following constraints to allocative efficiency: earmarking [provinces with budgets fund pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) for low-risk women first], meeting targets [provinces with budgets fund universal test-and-treat (UTT) first] and minimizing changes in the geographical distribution of funds. We modelled technical inefficiencies as a reduction in the coverage of PrEP or UTT, which were factored into the resource allocation process or took effect following the allocation. Each scenario was investigated over a range of budgets, such that the impact reaches its maximum.

RESULTS

The 'earmarking', 'meeting targets' and 'minimizing change' constraints reduce the potential impact of HIV prevention programmes, but at the higher budgets these constraints have little to no effect (approximately 35 billion US$ in Tanzania). Over-estimating technical efficiency can result in a loss of impact compared to what would be possible if technical efficiencies were known accurately.

CONCLUSION

Failing to account for constraints on allocative and technical efficiency can result in the overestimation of the health gains possible, and for technical inefficiencies the allocation of an inefficient strategy.

A perspective on global access to insulin: a descriptive study of the market, trade flows and prices

AIM

To describe the global insulin market.

METHODS

Market intelligence data, United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics for insulin trade, the International Medical Products Price Guide for prices of human insulin and additional web searches were used as data sources. These sources were combined to gain further insight into possible links among market, trade flows and prices. Descriptive statistics and Spearman's rank order correlation were used for the analysis.

RESULTS

A total of 34 insulin manufacturers were identified. Most countries and territories are reliant on a limited number of supplying countries. The overall median (interquartile range) government procurement price for a 10-ml, 100-IU/ml vial during the period 1996-2013 equivalent was US$4.3 (US$ 3.8-4.8), with median prices in Africa (US$ 4.7) and low- (US$ 6.9) and low- to middle- (US$ 4.7) income countries being higher over this period. The relationships between price and quantity of insulin (Spearman's r=0.046; P>0.1) and number of import links (Spearman's r=0.032; P>0.1) were weak. The links between price and percentage of total insulin from a country where a 'big three' manufacturer produces insulin (Spearman's r=0.294; P<0.05) and total insulin from the main import link (Spearman's r=-0.392; P<0.05) were stronger.

CONCLUSIONS

This research shows the high variability of insulin prices and the reliance on a few sources, both companies and countries, for global supply. In addressing access to insulin, countries need to use existing price data to negotiate prices, and mechanisms need to be developed to foster competition and security of supply of insulin, given the limited number of truly global producers.

The economic returns of ending the AIDS epidemic as a public health threat

BACKGROUND

In 2016, countries agreed on a Fast-Track strategy to "end the AIDS epidemic by 2030". The treatment and prevention components of the Fast-Track strategy aim to markedly reduce new HIV infections, AIDS-related deaths and HIV-related discrimination. This study assesses the economic returns of this ambitious strategy.

METHODS

We estimated the incremental costs, benefits and economic returns of the Fast-Track scenario in low- and middle-income countries, compared to a counterfactual defined as maintaining coverage of HIV-related services at 2015 levels. The benefits are calculated using the full-income approach, which values both the changes in income and in mortality, and the productivity approach.

FINDINGS

The incremental costs of the Fast-Track scenario over the constant scenario for 2017-2030 represent US$86 billion or US$13.69 per capita. The full-income valuation of the incremental benefits of the decrease in mortality amounts to US$88.14 per capita, representing 6.44 times the resources invested for all countries. These returns on investment vary by region, with the largest return in the Asia-Pacific region, followed by Eastern and Southern Africa. Returns using the productivity approach are smaller but ranked similarly across regions.

INTERPRETATION

In all regions, the economic and social value of the additional life-years saved by the Fast-Track approach exceeds its incremental costs, implying that this strategy for ending the AIDS epidemic is a sound economic investment.

The Future Role of the United States in Global Health: Emphasis on Cardiovascular Disease

U.S. global health investment has focused on detection, treatment, and eradication of infectious diseases such as tuberculosis, malaria, and human immunodeficiency virus/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, with significant results. Although efforts should be maintained and expanded to provide ongoing therapy for chronic infectious disease, there is a pressing need to meet the challenge of noncommunicable diseases, which constitute the highest burden of diseases globally. A Committee of the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine has made 14 recommendations that require ongoing commitments to eradication of infectious disease and increase the emphasis on chronic diseases such as cardiovascular disease. These include improving early detection and treatment, mitigating disease risk factors, shifting global health infrastructure to include management of cardiovascular disease, developing global partners and private-public ventures to meet infrastructure and funding challenges, streamlining medical product development and supply, increasing research and development capacity, and addressing gaps in global political and institutional leadership to meet the shifting challenge.

Can voluntary pooled procurement reduce the price of antiretroviral drugs? a case study of Efavirenz

Purpose

: A number of strategies have aimed to assist countries in procuring antiretroviral therapy (ARV) at lower prices. In 2009, as the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria (GFATM) commenced a voluntary pooled procurement scheme, however, the impact of the scheme on ARV prices remains uncertain. This study aims to estimate the effect of VPP on drug prices using Efavirenz as a case study.

Methods

This analysis uses WHO Global price report mechanism (GPRM) data from 2004 to 2013. Due to the highly skewed distribution of drug Prices, a generalized linear model (GLM) was used to conduct a difference-in-difference estimation of drug price changes over time.

Results

These analyses found that voluntary pooled procurement reduced both the ex-works price of generic Efavirenz and the incoterms price by 16.2 and 19.1%, respectively ( P <  0.001) in both cases). The year dummies were also statistically significant from 2006 to 2013 ( P <  0.001), indicating a strong decreasing trend in the price of Efavirenz over that period.

Conclusion

Voluntary pooled procurement significantly reduced the price of 600 mg generic Efavirenz between 2009 and 2013. Voluntary pooled procurement therefore offers a potentially effective strategy for the reduction in HIV drug prices and the improvement of technical efficiency in HIV programming. Further work is required to establish if these findings hold also for other drugs.

Projected savings through public health voluntary licences of HIV drugs negotiated by the Medicines Patent Pool (MPP)

The Medicines Patent Pool (MPP) was established in 2010 to ensure timely access to low-cost generic versions of patented antiretroviral (ARV) medicines in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) through the negotiation of voluntary licences with patent holders. While robust data on the savings generated by MPP and other major global public health initiatives is important, it is also difficult to quantify. In this study, we estimate the savings generated by licences negotiated by the MPP for ARV medicines to treat HIV/AIDS in LMICs for the period 2010–2028 and generate a cost-benefit ratio–based on people living with HIV (PLHIVs) in any new countries which gain access to an ARV due to MPP licences and the price differential between originator’s tiered price and generics price, within the period where that ARV is patented. We found that the direct savings generated by the MPP are estimated to be USD 2.3 billion (net present value) by 2028, representing an estimated cost-benefit ratio of 1:43, which means for every USD 1 spent on MPP, the global public health community saves USD 43. The saving of USD 2.3 billion is equivalent to more than 24 million PLHIV receiving first-line ART in LMICs for 1 year at average prices today.

Trends in medicines procurement by the Brazilian federal government from 2006 to 2013

The costs of medicines pose a growing burden on healthcare systems worldwide. A comprehensive understanding of current procurement processes provides strong support for the development of effective policies. This study examined Brazilian Federal Government pharmaceutical procurement data provided by the Integrated System for the Administration of General Services (SIASG) database, from 2006 to 2013. Medicine purchases were aggregated by volume and expenditure for each year. Data on expenditure were adjusted for inflation using the Extended National Consumer Price Index (IPCA) for December 31, 2013. Lorenz distribution curves were used to study the cumulative proportion of purchased therapeutic classes. Expenditure variance analysis was performed to determine the impact of each factor, price and/or volume, on total expenditure variation. Annual expenditure on medicines increased 2.72 times, while the purchased volume of drugs increased 1.99 times. A limited number of therapeutic classes dominated expenditure each year. Drugs for infectious diseases drove the increase in expenditures from 2006 to 2009 but were replaced by antineoplastic and immunomodulating agents beginning in 2010. Immunosuppressants (L04), accounted for one third of purchases since 2010, showing the most substantial growth in expenditures during the period (250-fold increase). The overwhelming price-related increase in expenditures caused by these medicines is bound to have a relevant impact on the sustainability of the pharmaceutical supply system. We observed increasing trends in expenditures, especially in specific therapeutic classes. We propose the development and implementation of better medicine procurement systems, and strategies to allow for monitoring of product price, effectiveness, and safety. This must be done with ongoing assessment of pharmaceutical innovations, therapeutic value and budget impact.

Affordability of adult HIV/AIDS treatment in developing countries: modelling price determinants for a better insight of the market functioning

Introduction

This study aims to provide a landscape of the global antiretroviral (ARV) market by analyzing the transactional data on donor-funded ARV procurement between 2003 and 2015, and the ARV price determinants.

Design

The data were obtained from the Global Price Reporting Mechanism (GPRM) managed by the AIDS Medicines and Diagnostics Service of the WHO, and it consists of information that covers approximately 80% of the total donor-funded adult ARV transactions procurement.

Methods

ExWorks prices and procured quantities were standardized according to the guidelines in terms of yearly doses. Descriptive statistics on quantities and prices show the main trends of the ARV market. Ordinary least squares estimation was carried out for the whole sample, then stratified according to the type of supplier (originator and generic) and controlled for time and geographical fixed-effects. Given that analyses were carried out on a public dataset on ARV transactional prices from the GPRM, ethics are respected and consent was not necessary.

Results

Originator medicines are on average the least expensive in the sub-Saharan Africa region, where at the same time, generic medicines are on average the most expensive. By contrast, originator medicines are the most expensive in Europe and Central Asia, and generic medicines are the least expensive. In fact, the data suggest mixed strategies by ARV suppliers to exploit opportunities for profit maximization and to adapt to the specific conditions of market competition in each region. Our results also suggest that the expiration of patents is not sufficient to boost additional developments in generic competition (at least in the ARV market) and that formal or informal agreements between generic firms may de facto slow down or even reverse long-term trends towards price decreases.

Conclusions

Our findings provide an improved understanding of the ARV market that can help countries strengthen policy measures to increase their bargaining power in price negotiations and the use of TRIPS flexibilities, with a special emphasis on negotiations with generic manufacturers.

Human Resources for Treating HIV/AIDS: Are the Preventive Effects of Antiretroviral Treatment a Game Changer?

Shortages of human resources for treating HIV/AIDS (HRHA) are a fundamental barrier to reaching universal antiretroviral treatment (ART) coverage in developing countries. Previous studies suggest that recruiting HRHA to attain universal ART coverage poses an insurmountable challenge as ART significantly increases survival among HIV-infected individuals. While new evidence about ART's prevention benefits suggests fewer infections may mitigate the challenge, new policies such as treatment-as-prevention (TasP) will exacerbate it. We develop a mathematical model to analytically study the net effects of these countervailing factors. Using South Africa as a case study, we find that contrary to previous results, universal ART coverage is achievable even with current HRHA numbers. However, larger health gains are possible through a surge-capacity policy that aggressively recruits HRHA to reach universal ART coverage quickly. Without such a policy, TasP roll-out can increase health losses by crowding out sicker patients from treatment, unless a surge capacity exclusively for TasP is also created.

Strategies for price reduction of HIV medicines under a monopoly situation in Brazil

OBJECTIVE

To analyze Government strategies for reducing prices of antiretroviral medicines for HIV in Brazil.

METHODS

Analysis of Ministry of Health purchases of antiretroviral medicines, from 2005 to 2013. Expenditures and costs of the treatment per year were analyzed and compared to international prices of atazanavir. Price reductions were estimated based on the terms of a voluntary license of patent rights and technology transfer in the Partnership for Productive Development Agreement for atazanavir.

RESULTS

Atazanavir, a patented medicine, represented a significant share of the expenditures on antiretrovirals purchased from the private sector. Prices in Brazil were higher than international references, and no evidence was found of a relationship between purchase volume and price paid by the Ministry of Health. Concerning the latest strategy to reduce prices, involving local production of the 200 mg capsule, the price reduction was greater than the estimated reduction. As for the 300 mg capsule, the amounts paid in the first two years after the Partnership for Productive Development Agreement were close to the estimated values. Prices in nominal values for both dosage forms remained virtually constant between 2011 (the signature of the Partnership for Productive Development Agreement), 2012 and 2013 (after the establishment of the Partnership).

CONCLUSIONS

Price reduction of medicines is complex in limited-competition environments. The use of a Partnership for Productive Development Agreement as a strategy to increase the capacity of local production and to reduce prices raises issues regarding its effectiveness in reducing prices and to overcome patent barriers. Investments in research and development that can stimulate technological accumulation should be considered by the Government to strengthen its bargaining power to negotiate medicines prices under a monopoly situation.

PEPFAR Transitions to Country Ownership: Review of Past Donor Transitions and Application of Lessons Learned to the Eastern Caribbean

The US President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) has shifted from an emergency response to a sustainable, country-owned response. The process of transition to country ownership is already underway in the Eastern Caribbean; the Office of the US Global AIDS Coordinator (OGAC) has advised the region that PEPFAR funding is being redirected away from the Eastern Caribbean toward Caribbean countries with high disease burden to strengthen services for key populations. This article seeks to highlight and apply lessons learned from other donor transitions to support a successful transition of HIV programs in the Eastern Caribbean. Based on a rapid review of both peer-reviewed and gray literature on donor transitions to country ownership in family planning, HIV, and other areas, we identified 48 resources that addressed key steps in the transition process and determinants of readiness for transition. Analysis of the existing literature revealed 6 steps that could help ensure successful transition, including developing a clear roadmap articulated through high-level diplomacy; investing in extensive stakeholder engagement; and supporting monitoring and evaluation during and after the transition to adjust course as needed. Nine specific areas to assess a country's readiness for transition include: leadership and management capacity, political and economic factors, the policy environment, identification of alternative funding sources, integration of HIV programs into the wider health system, the institutionalization of processes, the strength of procurement and supply chain management, identification of staffing and training needs, and engagement of civil society and the private sector. In the Caribbean, key areas requiring strengthening to ensure countries in the region can maintain the gains made under PEPFAR include further engaging civil society and the private sector, building the capacity of NGOs to take on essential program functions, and maintaining donor support for targeted capacity building and long-term monitoring and evaluation efforts.

Global financing and long-term technical assistance for multidrug-resistant tuberculosis: scaling up access to treatment

Thomas Hwang and Salmaan Keshavjee argue that a market-based strategy combined with long-term in-country technical assistance should be used to scale-up access to the treatment of multi-drug resistant tuberculosis Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

Analysis of prices paid by low-income countries - how price sensitive is government demand for medicines?

BACKGROUND

Access to medicines is an important health policy issue. This paper considers demand structures in a selection of low-income countries from the perspective of public authorities as the evidence base is limited. Analysis of the demand for medicines in low-income countries is critical for effective pharmaceutical policy where regulation is less developed, health systems are cash constrained and medicines are not typically subsidised by a public health insurance system

METHODS

This study analyses the demand for medicines in low-income countries from the perspective of the prices paid by public authorities. The analysis draws on a unique dataset from World Health Organization (WHO) and Health Action International (HAI) using 2003 data on procurement prices of medicines across 16 low-income countries covering 48 branded drugs and 18 therapeutic categories. Variation in prices, the mark-ups over marginal costs and estimation of price elasticities allows assessment of whether these elasticities are correlated with a country's national income.

RESULTS

Using the Ramsey pricing rule, the study's findings suggest that substantial cross-country variation in prices and mark-ups exist, with price elasticities ranging from -1 to -2, which are weakly correlated with national income.

CONCLUSIONS

Government demand for medicines thus appears to be price elastic, raising important policy implications aimed at improving access to medicines for patients in low-income countries.

The Global Drug Facility and its role in the market for tuberculosis drugs

Universal access to high-quality treatment is central to the Global Plan to Stop TB. The Global Drug Facility (GDF) was launched in 2001 to help to achieve this goal, through services including the supply of affordable, quality-assured drugs to countries in need. We assess the scale of GDF drug supplies worldwide and find that the GDF commands a substantial proportion of the market for drugs for first-line and second-line treatment regimens, having supplied, for example, first-line drugs for roughly 35% of cases reported worldwide in 2011. Significant potential remains for GDF expansion, especially in the provision of second-line drugs, which would be aided by future increases in case detection.

The market dynamics of generic medicines in the private sector of 19 low and middle income countries between 2001 and 2011: a descriptive time series analysis

This observational study investigates the private sector, retail pharmaceutical market of 19 low and middle income countries (LMICs) in Latin America, Asia and the Middle East/South Africa analyzing the relationships between volume market share of generic and originator medicines over a time series from 2001 to 2011. Over 5000 individual pharmaceutical substances were divided into generic (unbranded generic, branded generic medicines) and originator categories for each country, including the United States as a comparator. In 9 selected LMICs, the market share of those originator substances with the largest decrease over time was compared to the market share of their counterpart generic versions. Generic medicines (branded generic plus unbranded generic) represent between 70 and 80% of market share in the private sector of these LMICs which exceeds that of most European countries. Branded generic medicine market share is higher than that of unbranded generics in all three regions and this is in contrast to the U.S. Although switching from an originator to its generic counterpart can save money, this narrative in reality is complex at the level of individual medicines. In some countries, the market behavior of some originator medicines that showed the most temporal decrease, showed switching to their generic counterpart. In other countries such as in the Middle East/South Africa and Asia, the loss of these originators was not accompanied by any change at all in market share of the equivalent generic version. For those countries with a significant increase in generic medicines market share and/or with evidence of comprehensive "switching" to generic versions, notably in Latin America, it would be worthwhile to establish cause-effect relationships between pharmaceutical policies and uptake of generic medicines. The absence of change in the generic medicines market share in other countries suggests that, at a minimum, generic medicines have not been strongly promoted.

Current strategies for improving access and adherence to antiretroviral therapies in resource-limited settings

The rollout of antiretroviral therapy (ART) significantly reduced human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-related morbidity and mortality, but good clinical outcomes depend on access and adherence to treatment. In resource-limited settings, where over 90% of the world's HIV-infected population resides, data on barriers to treatment are emerging that contribute to low rates of uptake in HIV testing, linkage to and retention in HIV care systems, and suboptimal adherence rates to therapy. A review of the literature reveals limited evidence to inform strategies to improve access and adherence with the majority of studies from sub-Saharan Africa. Data from observational studies and randomized controlled trials support home-based, mobile and antenatal care HIV testing, task-shifting from doctor-based to nurse-based and lower level provider care, and adherence support through education, counseling and mobile phone messaging services. Strategies with more limited evidence include targeted HIV testing for couples and family members of ART patients, decentralization of HIV care, including through home- and community-based ART programs, and adherence promotion through peer health workers, treatment supporters, and directly observed therapy. There is little evidence for improving access and adherence among vulnerable groups such as women, children and adolescents, and other high-risk populations and for addressing major barriers. Overall, studies are few in number and suffer from methodological issues. Recommendations for further research include health information technology, social-level factors like HIV stigma, and new research directions in cost-effectiveness, operations, and implementation. Findings from this review make a compelling case for more data to guide strategies to improve access and adherence to treatment in resource-limited settings.

Low-cost generic drugs under the President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief drove down treatment cost; more are needed

The President's Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) was originally authorized in 2003 with the goal of supporting HIV prevention, treatment, and care within fifteen focus countries in the developing world. By September 2011 nearly 13 million people around the world were receiving HIV/AIDS-related care through PEPFAR, and 3.9 million were receiving antiretroviral treatment. However, in the early years of the program, access to antiretroviral drugs was hampered by the lack of a licensing process that the US government recognized for generic versions of these medications. Ultimately, the obstacle to approval of generic antiretroviral drugs was removed, which led to PEPFAR's considerable success at making these treatments widely available. This article outlines PEPFAR's evolving use of generic antiretroviral drugs to treat HIV in the developing world, highlights ongoing initiatives to increase access to generic antiretrovirals, and points to the need for mechanisms that will speed up the approval of new generic drugs. The striking decline in antiretroviral treatment costs, from $1,100 per person annually in 2004 to $335 per person annually in 2012, is due to the availability of effective generic antiretrovirals. Given growing resistance to existing drugs and the planned expansion of treatment to millions more people, access to newer generations of generic antiretrovirals will have to be expedited.

Understanding health systems, health economies and globalization: the need for social science perspectives

The complex relationship between globalization and health calls for research from many disciplinary and methodological perspectives. This editorial gives an overview of the content trajectory of the interdisciplinary journal 'Globalization and Health' over the first six years of production, 2005 to 2010. The findings show that bio-medical and population health perspectives have been dominant but that social science perspectives have become more evident in recent years. The types of paper published have also changed, with a growing proportion of empirical studies. A special issue on 'Health systems, health economies and globalization: social science perspectives' is introduced, a collection of contributions written from the vantage points of economics, political science, psychology, sociology, business studies, social policy and research policy. The papers concern a range of issues pertaining to the globalization of healthcare markets and governance and regulation issues. They highlight the important contribution that can be made by the social sciences to this field, and also the practical and methodological challenges implicit in the study of globalization and health.

A win-win solution?: A critical analysis of tiered pricing to improve access to medicines in developing countries

BACKGROUND

Tiered pricing - the concept of selling drugs and vaccines in developing countries at prices systematically lower than in industrialized countries - has received widespread support from industry, policymakers, civil society, and academics as a way to improve access to medicines for the poor. We carried out case studies based on a review of international drug price developments for antiretrovirals, artemisinin combination therapies, drug-resistant tuberculosis medicines, liposomal amphotericin B (for visceral leishmaniasis), and pneumococcal vaccines.

DISCUSSION

We found several critical shortcomings to tiered pricing: it is inferior to competition for achieving the lowest sustainable prices; it often involves arbitrary divisions between markets and/or countries, which can lead to very high prices for middle-income markets; and it leaves a disproportionate amount of decision-making power in the hands of sellers vis-à-vis consumers. In many developing countries, resources are often stretched so tight that affordability can only be approached by selling medicines at or near the cost of production. Policies that "de-link" the financing of R&D from the price of medicines merit further attention, since they can reward innovation while exploiting robust competition in production to generate the lowest sustainable prices. However, in special cases - such as when market volumes are very small or multi-source production capacity is lacking - tiered pricing may offer the only practical option to meet short-term needs for access to a product. In such cases, steps should be taken to ensure affordability and availability in the longer-term.

SUMMARY

To ensure access to medicines for populations in need, alternate strategies should be explored that harness the power of competition, avoid arbitrary market segmentation, and/or recognize government responsibilities. Competition should generally be the default option for achieving affordability, as it has proven superior to tiered pricing for reliably achieving the lowest sustainable prices.

Assessing the population health impact of market interventions to improve access to antiretroviral treatment

Despite extraordinary global progress in increasing coverage of antiretroviral treatment (ART), the majority of people needing ART currently are not receiving treatment. Both the number of people needing ART and the average ART price per patient-year are expected to increase in coming years, which will dramatically raise funding needs for ART. Several international organizations are using interventions in ART markets to decrease ART price or to improve ART quality, delivery and innovation, with the ultimate goal of improving population health. These organizations need to select those market interventions that are most likely to substantially affect population health outcomes (ex ante assessment) and to evaluate whether implemented interventions have improved health outcomes (ex post assessment).

We develop a framework to structure ex ante and ex post assessment of the population health impact of market interventions, which is transmitted through effects in markets and health systems. Ex ante assessment should include evaluation of the safety and efficacy of the ART products whose markets will be affected by the intervention; theoretical consideration of the mechanisms through which the intervention will affect population health; and predictive modelling to estimate the potential population health impact of the intervention. For ex post assessment, analysts need to consider which outcomes to estimate empirically and which to model based on empirical findings and understanding of the economic and biological mechanisms along the causal pathway from market intervention to population health. We discuss methods for ex post assessment and analyse assessment issues (unintended intervention effects, interaction effects between different interventions, and assessment impartiality and cost). We offer seven recommendations for ex ante and ex post assessment of population health impact of market interventions.

Modeling HIV/AIDS drug price determinants in Brazil: is generic competition a myth?

Background

Brazil became the first developing country to guarantee free and universal access to HIV/AIDS treatment, with antiretroviral drugs (ARVs) being delivered to nearly 190,000 patients. The analysis of ARV price evolution and market dynamics in Brazil can help anticipate issues soon to afflict other developing countries, as the 2010 revision of the World Health Organization guidelines shifts demand towards more expensive treatments, and, at the same time, current evolution of international legislation and trade agreements on intellectual property rights may reduce availability of generic drugs for HIV care.

Methods and Findings

Our analyses are based on effective prices paid for ARV procurement in Brazil between 1996 and 2009. Data panel structure was exploited to gather ex-ante and ex-post information and address various sources of statistical bias. In-difference estimation offered in-depth information on ARV market characteristics which significantly influence prices. Although overall ARV prices follow a declining trend, changing characteristics in the generic segment help explain recent increase in generic ARV prices. Our results show that generic suppliers are more likely to respond to factors influencing demand size and market competition, while originator suppliers tend to set prices strategically to offset compulsory licensing threats and generic competition.

Significance

In order to guarantee the long term sustainability of access to antiretroviral treatment, our findings highlight the importance of preserving and stimulating generic market dynamics to sustain developing countries' bargaining power in price negotiations undertaken with originator companies.

Driving a decade of change: HIV/AIDS, patents and access to medicines for all

Since 2000, access to antiretroviral drugs to treat HIV infection has dramatically increased to reach more than five million people in developing countries. Essential to this achievement was the dramatic reduction in antiretroviral prices, a result of global political mobilization that cleared the way for competitive production of generic versions of widely patented medicines.Global trade rules agreed upon in 1994 required many developing countries to begin offering patents on medicines for the first time. Government and civil society reaction to expected increases in drug prices precipitated a series of events challenging these rules, culminating in the 2001 World Trade Organization's Doha Declaration on the Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights and Public Health. The Declaration affirmed that patent rules should be interpreted and implemented to protect public health and to promote access to medicines for all. Since Doha, more than 60 low- and middle-income countries have procured generic versions of patented medicines on a large scale.Despite these changes, however, a "treatment timebomb" awaits. First, increasing numbers of people need access to newer antiretrovirals, but treatment costs are rising since new ARVs are likely to be more widely patented in developing countries. Second, policy space to produce or import generic versions of patented medicines is shrinking in some developing countries. Third, funding for medicines is falling far short of needs. Expanded use of the existing flexibilities in patent law and new models to address the second wave of the access to medicines crisis are required.One promising new mechanism is the UNITAID-supported Medicines Patent Pool, which seeks to facilitate access to patents to enable competitive generic medicines production and the development of improved products. Such innovative approaches are possible today due to the previous decade of AIDS activism. However, the Pool is just one of a broad set of policies needed to ensure access to medicines for all; other key measures include sufficient and reliable financing, research and development of new products targeted for use in resource-poor settings, and use of patent law flexibilities. Governments must live up to their obligations to protect access to medicines as a fundamental component of the human right to health.

The global pediatric antiretroviral market: analyses of product availability and utilization reveal challenges for development of pediatric formulations and HIV/AIDS treatment in children

Background

Important advances in the development and production of quality-certified pediatric antiretroviral (ARV) formulations have recently been made despite significant market disincentives for manufacturers. This progress resulted from lobbying and innovative interventions from HIV/AIDS activists, civil society organizations, and international organizations. Research on uptake and dispersion of these improved products across countries and international organizations has not been conducted but is needed to inform next steps towards improving child health.

Methods

We used information from the World Health Organization Prequalification Programme and the United States Food and Drug Administration to describe trends in quality-certification of pediatric formulations and used 7,989 donor-funded, pediatric ARV purchase transactions from 2002-2009 to measure uptake and dispersion of new pediatric ARV formulations across countries and programs. Prices for new pediatric ARV formulations were compared to alternative dosage forms.

Results

Fewer ARV options exist for HIV/AIDS treatment in children than adults. Before 2005, most pediatric ARVs were produced by innovator companies in single-component solid and liquid forms. Five 2-in1 and four 3-in-1 generic pediatric fixed-dose combinations (FDCs) in solid and dispersible forms have been quality-certified since 2005. Most (67%) of these were produced by one quality-certified manufacturer. Uptake of new pediatric FDCs outside of UNITAID is low. UNITAID accounted for 97-100% of 2008-2009 market volume. In total, 33 and 34 countries reported solid or dispersible FDC purchases in 2008 and 2009, respectively, but most purchases were made through UNITAID. Only three Global Fund country recipients reported purchase of these FDCs in 2008. Prices for pediatric FDCs were considerably lower than liquids but typically higher than half of an adult FDC.

Conclusion

Pediatric ARV markets are more fragile than adult markets. Ensuring a long-term supply of quality, well-adapted ARVs for children requires ongoing monitoring and improved understanding of global pediatric markets, including country-based research to explain and address low uptake of new, improved formulations. Continued innovation in pediatric ARV development may be threatened by outdated procurement practices failing to connect clinicians making prescribing decisions, supply chain staff dealing with logistics, donors, international organizations, and pharmaceutical manufacturers. Perceptions of global demand must be better informed by accurate estimates of actual country-level demand.

A lifeline to treatment: the role of Indian generic manufacturers in supplying antiretroviral medicines to developing countries

BACKGROUND

Indian manufacturers of generic antiretroviral (ARV) medicines facilitated the rapid scale up of HIV/AIDS treatment in developing countries though provision of low-priced, quality-assured medicines. The legal framework in India that facilitated such production, however, is changing with implementation of the World Trade Organization Agreement on Trade-Related Aspects of Intellectual Property Rights, and intellectual property measures being discussed in regional and bilateral free trade agreement negotiations. Reliable quantitative estimates of the Indian role in generic global ARV supply are needed to understand potential impacts of such measures on HIV/AIDS treatment in developing countries.

METHODS

We utilized transactional data containing 17,646 donor-funded purchases of ARV tablets made by 115 low- and middle-income countries from 2003 to 2008 to measure market share, purchase trends and prices of Indian-produced generic ARVs compared with those of non-Indian generic and brand ARVs.

RESULTS

Indian generic manufacturers dominate the ARV market, accounting for more than 80% of annual purchase volumes. Among paediatric ARV and adult nucleoside and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor markets, Indian-produced generics accounted for 91% and 89% of 2008 global purchase volumes, respectively. From 2003 to 2008, the number of Indian generic manufactures supplying ARVs increased from four to 10 while the number of Indian-manufactured generic products increased from 14 to 53. Ninety-six of 100 countries purchased Indian generic ARVs in 2008, including high HIV-burden sub-Saharan African countries. Indian-produced generic ARVs used in first-line regimens were consistently and considerably less expensive than non-Indian generic and innovator ARVs. Key ARVs newly recommended by the World Health Organization are three to four times more expensive than older regimens.

CONCLUSIONS

Indian generic producers supply the majority of ARVs in developing countries. Future scale up using newly recommended ARVs will likely be hampered until Indian generic producers can provide the dramatic price reductions and improved formulations observed in the past. Rather than agreeing to inappropriate intellectual property obligations through free trade agreements, India and its trade partners--plus international organizations, donors, civil society and pharmaceutical manufacturers--should ensure that there is sufficient policy space for Indian pharmaceutical manufacturers to continue their central role in supplying developing countries with low-priced, quality-assured generic medicines.