Health and Economic Growth: Reconciling the Micro and Macro Evidence

Economists use micro-based and macro-based approaches to assess the macroeconomic return to population health. The macro-based approach tends to yield estimates that are either negative and close to zero or positive and an order of magnitude larger than the range of estimates derived from the micro-based approach. This presents a micro-macro puzzle regarding the macroeconomic return to health. We reconcile the two approaches by controlling for the indirect effects of health on income per capita, which macro-based approaches usually include but micro-based approaches deliberately omit when isolating the direct income effects of health. Our results show that the macroeconomic return to health lies in the range of plausible microeconomic estimates, demonstrating that both approaches are in fact consistent with one another.

Strep A: challenges, opportunities, vaccine-based solutions, and economics

This collection of articles focuses on Streptococcus pyogenes (Strep A) vaccine research and innovation, with a focus on emerging efforts to understand and estimate the full societal value of Strep A vaccination.

Cost of care for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias in the United States: 2016 to 2060

Medical and long-term care for Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRDs) can impose a large economic burden on individuals and societies. We estimated the per capita cost of ADRDs care in the in the United States in 2016 and projected future aggregate care costs during 2020-2060. Based on a previously published methodology, we used U.S. Health and Retirement Survey (2010-2016) longitudinal data to estimate formal and informal care costs. In 2016, the estimated per patient cost of formal care was $28,078 (95% confidence interval [CI]: $25,893-$30,433), and informal care cost valued in terms of replacement cost and forgone wages was $36,667 ($34,025-$39,473) and $15,792 ($12,980-$18,713), respectively. Aggregate formal care cost and formal plus informal care cost using replacement cost and forgone wage methods were $196 billion (95% uncertainty range [UR]: $179-$213 billion), $450 billion ($424-$478 billion), and $305 billion ($278-$333 billion), respectively, in 2020. These were projected to increase to $1.4 trillion ($837 billion-$2.2 trillion), $3.3 trillion ($1.9-$5.1 trillion), and $2.2 trillion ($1.3-$3.5 trillion), respectively, in 2060.

Trajectories and correlates of poor mental health in India over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic: a nationwide survey

INTRODUCTION

The COVID-19 pandemic had large impacts on mental health; however, most existing evidence is focused on the initial lockdown period and high-income contexts. By assessing trajectories of mental health symptoms in India over 2 years, we aim to understand the effect of later time periods and pandemic characteristics on mental health in a lower-middle income context.

METHODS

We used data from the Real-Time Insights of COVID-19 in India cohort study (N=3709). We used covariate-adjusted linear regression models with generalised estimating equations to assess associations between mental health (Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-4) score; range 0-12) and pandemic periods as well as pandemic characteristics (COVID-19 cases and deaths, government stringency, self-reported financial impact, COVID-19 infection in the household) and explored effect modification by age, gender and rural/urban residence.

RESULTS

Mental health symptoms dropped immediately following the lockdown period but rose again during the delta and omicron waves. Associations between mental health and later pandemic stages were stronger for adults 45 years of age and older (p<0.001). PHQ-4 scores were significantly associated with all pandemic characteristics considered, including estimated COVID-19 deaths (PHQ-4 difference of 0.10 units; 95% CI 0.06 to 0.13), government stringency index (0.14 units; 95% CI 0.11 to 0.18), self-reported major financial impacts (1.20 units; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.32) and COVID-19 infection in the household (0.36 units; 95% CI 0.23 to 0.50).

CONCLUSION

While the lockdown period and associated financial stress had the largest mental health impacts on Indian adults, the effects of the pandemic on mental health persisted over time, especially among middle-aged and older adults. Results highlight the importance of investments in mental health supports and services to address the consequences of cyclical waves of infections and disease burden due to COVID-19 or other emerging pandemics.

Lifecycle model-based evaluation of infant 4CMenB vaccination in the UK

OBJECTIVES

Invasive meningococcal disease, an uncommon but severe disease, imposes catastrophic health and economic burdens. Cost-utility analysis (CUA) assumes separability in lifetime health and economic variables and cannot capture the full value of preventing such burdens. We overcome these limitations with a retrospective societal perspective cost-benefit analysis (CBA) of meningococcal serogroup B vaccination (4CMenB) of one infant cohort in the United Kingdom using a health-augmented lifecycle model (HALM) incorporating health's interactions with consumption, earnings, non-market time and financial risk.

METHODS

We used a static Markov model of vaccination's health impact and an HALM to estimate the private willingness to pay (PWTP) for the intrinsic and instrumental value of health under perfect capital markets, financial risk protection in the absence of insurance against permanent disability, parental spillovers, and acute phase disability. We estimated social WTP (SWTP) incorporating social severity preferences. We estimated rates of return that inform health payer reimbursement decisions, finance ministry budgeting decisions, and legislature taxation decisions. An expert Advisory Board investigated the validity of applying the HALM to infant 4CMenB.

RESULTS

The PWTP for a 2 + 1 vaccination schedule is £395, comprising £166 of disability insurance value, £79 of positive parental spillover value, £28 in the value of averting acute phase disability, and £122 in residual intrinsic and instrumental value of health. SWTP is £969.

CONCLUSIONS

HALM-based CBA provides an empirically richer, more utility-theoretically grounded approach to vaccine evaluation than CUA, demonstrating good value for money for legislatures (based on private values) and for all decision-makers (based on social values).

Meningococcal Disease in the Post-COVID-19 Era: A Time to Prepare

The global invasive meningococcal disease (IMD) landscape changed considerably during the COVID-19 pandemic, as evidenced by decreased incidence rates due to COVID-19 mitigation measures, such as limited social contact, physical distancing, mask wearing, and hand washing. Vaccination rates were also lower during the pandemic relative to pre-pandemic levels. Although policymakers may have shifted their focus away from IMD vaccination programs to COVID-19 vaccination programs, strong arguments support implementation and prioritization of IMD vaccination programs; IMD cases have increased in some countries and IMD rates may even have exceeded pre-pandemic levels. Additional concerns include increased susceptibility due to vaccination coverage gaps, increased incidence of other respiratory pathogens, immunity debt from lockdown restrictions, and increased IMD epidemiologic variability. The full range of benefits of widely available and effective meningococcal vaccines needs to be considered, especially in health technology assessments, where the broad benefits of these vaccines are neither accurately quantified nor captured in implementation policy decisions. Importantly, implementation of meningococcal vaccination programs in the current IMD climate also appeals to broader healthcare principles, including preparedness rather than reactive approaches, generally accepted benefit-risk approaches to vaccination, historical precedent, and the World Health Organization's goal of defeating meningitis by 2030. Countries should therefore act swiftly to bolster existing meningococcal vaccination strategies to provide broad coverage across age groups and serogroups given the recent increases in IMD incidence.

Antibiotic consumption for sore throat and the potential effect of a vaccine against group A Streptococcus: a systematic review and modelling study

BACKGROUND

Antibiotic consumption can lead to antimicrobial resistance and microbiome imbalance. We sought to estimate global antibiotic consumption for sore throat, and the potential reduction in consumption due to effective vaccination against group A Streptococcus (Strep A).

METHODS

We reviewed and analysed articles published between January 2000 and February 2022, identified though Clarivate Analytics' Web of Science search platform, with reference to antibiotic prescribing or consumption, sore throat, pharyngitis, or tonsillitis. We then used those analyses, combined with assumptions for the effectiveness, duration of protection, and coverage of a vaccine, to calculate the estimated reduction in antibiotic prescribing due to the introduction of Strep A vaccines.

FINDINGS

We identified 101 studies covering 38 countries. The mean prescribing rate for sore throat was approximately 5 courses per 100 population per year, accounting for approximately 5% of all antibiotic consumption. Based on 2020 population estimates for countries with empiric prescribing rates, antibiotic consumption for sore throat was estimated to exceed 37 million courses annually, of which half could be attributable to treatment for Strep A. A vaccine that reduces rates of Strep A infection by 80%, with 80% coverage and 10 year's duration of protection, could avert 2.8 million courses of antibiotics prescribed for sore throat treatment among 5-14 year-olds in countries with observed prescribing rates, increasing to an estimated 7.5 million averted if an effective vaccination program also reduced precautionary prescribing.

INTERPRETATION

A vaccine that prevents Strep A throat infections in children may reduce antibiotic prescribing for sore throat by 32-87% depending on changes to prescribing and consumption behaviours.

FUNDING

The Wellcome Trust, grant agreement number 215490/Z/19/Z.

The full health, economic, and social benefits of prospective Strep A vaccination

Recent research has documented a wide range of health, economic, and social benefits conferred by vaccination, beyond the direct reductions in morbidity, mortality, and future healthcare costs traditionally captured in economic evaluations. In this paper, we describe the societal benefits that would likely stem from widespread administration of safe and effective vaccines against Streptococcus pyogenes (Strep A), which was estimated to be the fifth-leading cause of infectious disease deaths globally prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. We then estimate the global societal gains from prospective Strep A vaccination through a value-per-statistical-life approach. Estimated aggregate lifetime benefits for 30 global birth cohorts range from $1.7 to $5.1 trillion, depending on the age at which vaccination is administered and other factors. These results suggest that the benefits of Strep A vaccination would be large and justify substantial investment in the vaccines' development, manufacture, and delivery.

The macroeconomic burden of noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions in South America

Noncommunicable diseases and mental health conditions (referred to collectively as NMHs) are the greatest cause of preventable death, illness, and disability in South America and negatively affect countries' economic performance through their detrimental impacts on labor supply and capital investments. Sound, evidence-based policy-making requires a deep understanding of the macroeconomic costs of NMHs and of their distribution across countries and diseases. The paper estimates and projects the macroeconomic burden of NMHs over the period 2020-2050 in 10 South American countries. We estimate the impact of NMHs on gross domestic product (GDP) through a human capital-augmented production function approach, accounting for mortality and morbidity effects of NMHs on labor supply, for the impact of treatment costs on physical capital accumulation, and for variations in human capital by age. Our central estimates suggest that the overall burden of NMHs in these countries amounts to $7.3 trillion (2022 international $, 3% discount rate, 95% confidence interval: $6.8-$7.8 trillion). Overall, the macroeconomic burden of NMHs is around 4% of total GDP over 2020-2050, with little variation across countries (from 3.2% in Peru to 4.5% in Brazil). In other words, without NMHs, annual GDP over 2020-2050 would be about 4% larger. In most countries, the largest macroeconomic burden is associated with cancers. Results from the paper point to a significant macroeconomic burden of NMHs in South America and provide a strong justification for investment in NMH prevention, early detection, treatment, and formal and informal care.

Public economic gains from tax-financed investments in childhood immunization in the United States

The emergence of COVID-19 has displayed the importance of immunization and the need for continued public investment in vaccination programs. Globally, national vaccination programs rely heavily on tax-financed expenditure, requiring upfront investments and ongoing financial commitments. To evaluate annual public investments, we conducted a fiscal analysis that quantifies the public economic consequences to government in the United States attributable to childhood vaccination. To estimate the change in net government revenue, we developed a decision-analytic model that quantifies lifetime tax revenues and transfers based on changes in morbidity and mortality arising from vaccination of the 2017 U.S. birth cohort. Reductions in deaths and comorbid conditions attributed to pediatric vaccines were used to derive gross lifetime earnings gains, tax revenue gains attributed to averted morbidity and mortality avoided, disability transfer cost savings, and averted special education costs associated with each vaccine. Our analysis indicates a fiscal dividend of $41.7 billion from vaccinating this cohort. The bulk of this gain for government reflects avoiding the loss of $30.6 billion in present-value tax revenues. All pediatric vaccines raise tax revenues by reducing vaccine-preventable morbidity and mortality in amounts ranging from $7.3 million (hepatitis A) to $20.3 billion (diphtheria) over the life course. Based on public investments in pediatric vaccines, a benefit-cost ratio of 17.8 was calculated for each dollar invested in childhood immunization. The public economic yield attributed to childhood vaccination in the U.S. is significant from a government perspective, providing fiscal justification for ongoing investment.

The benefits and costs of U.S. employer COVID-19 vaccine mandates

In 2021, the Biden Administration issued mandates requiring COVID-19 vaccinations for U.S. federal employees and contractors and for some healthcare and private sector workers. These mandates have been challenged in court; some have been halted or delayed. However, their costs and benefits have not been rigorously appraised. This study helps fill that gap. We estimate the direct costs and health-related benefits that would have accrued if these vaccination requirements had been implemented as intended. Compared with the January 2022 vaccination rates, we find that the mandates could have led to 15 million additional vaccinated individuals, increasing the overall proportion of the fully vaccinated U.S. population from 64% to 68%. The associated net benefits depend on the subsequent evolution of the pandemic-information unavailable ex ante to analysts or policymakers. In scenarios involving the emergence of a novel, more transmissible variant, against which vaccination and previous infection offer moderate protection, the estimated net benefits are potentially large. They reach almost $20,000 per additional vaccinated individual, with more than 20,000 total deaths averted over the 6-month period assessed. In scenarios involving a fading pandemic, existing vaccination-acquired or infection-acquired immunity provides sufficient protection, and the mandates' benefits are unlikely to exceed their costs. Thus, mandates may be most useful when the consequences of inaction are catastrophic. However, we do not compare the effects of mandates with alternative policies for increasing vaccination rates or for promoting other protective measures, which may receive stronger public support and be less likely to be overturned by litigation.

Trajectories and correlates of poor mental health in India over the course of the COVID-19 pandemic: a nation-wide survey

Introduction

The COVID-19 pandemic had large impacts on mental health; however, most existing evidence is focused on the initial lockdown period and high-income contexts. By assessing trajectories of mental health symptoms in India over two years, we aim to understand the effect of later time periods and pandemic characteristics on mental health in a lower-middle income context.

Methods

We used data from the Real-Time Insights of COVID-19 in India (RTI COVID-India) cohort study (N=3,662). We used covariate-adjusted linear regression models with generalized estimating equations to assess associations between mental health (PHQ-4 score) and pandemic periods as well as pandemic characteristics (COVID-19 cases and deaths, government stringency, self-reported financial impact, COVID-19 infection in the household) and explored effect modification by age, gender, and rural/urban residence.

Results

Mental health symptoms dropped immediately following the lockdown period but rose again during the delta and omicron waves. Associations between mental health and later pandemic stages were stronger for adults 45 years of age and older (p<0.001). PHQ-4 scores were significantly and independently associated with all pandemic characteristics considered, including estimated COVID-19 deaths (PHQ-4 difference of 0.041 SD units; 95% Confidence Interval 0.030 - 0.053), government stringency index (0.060 SD units; 0.048 - 0.072), self-reported major financial impacts (0.45 SD units; 0.41-0.49), and COVID-19 infection in the household (0.11 SD units; 0.07-0.16).

Conclusion

While the lockdown period and associated financial stress had the largest mental health impacts on Indian adults, the effects of the pandemic on mental health persisted over time, especially among middle-age and older adults. Results highlight the importance of investments in mental health supports and services to address the consequences of cyclical waves of infections and disease burden due to COVID-19 or other emerging pandemics.

Rule of Prevention: a potential framework to evaluate preventive interventions for rare diseases

Background: The benefits of preventive interventions lack comprehensive evaluation in standard health technology assessments (HTA), particularly for rare and transmissible diseases. Objective: To identify possible considerations for future HTA using analogies between the treatment and prevention of rare diseases. Study design: An Expert panel meeting assessed whether one HTA assessment framework can be applied to assess both rare disease treatments and preventive interventions. Experts also evaluated the range of value elements currently included in HTAs and their applicability to rare, transmissible, and/or preventable diseases. Results: A broad range of value should be considered when assessing rare, transmissible disease prevention. Although standard HTA can be applied to transmissible diseases, the risk of local outbreaks and the need for large-scale prevention programs suggest a modified assessment framework, capable of incorporating prevention-specific value elements in HTAs. A 'Rule of Prevention' framework was proposed to allow broader value considerations anchored to severity, equity, and prevention benefits in decision-making for preventive interventions for rare transmissible diseases. Conclusion: The proposed prevention framework introduces an explicit initial approach to consistently assess rare transmissible diseases, and to incorporate the broader value of preventive interventions compared with treatment.

The global economic burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease for 204 countries and territories in 2020-50: a health-augmented macroeconomic modelling study

BACKGROUND

Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is the third leading cause of death worldwide and imposes a substantial economic burden. Gaining a thorough understanding of the economic implications of COPD is an important prerequisite for sound, evidence-based policy making. We aimed to estimate the macroeconomic burden of COPD for each country and establish its distribution across world regions.

METHODS

In this health-augmented macroeconomic modelling study we estimated the macroeconomic burden of COPD for 204 countries and territories over the period 2020-50. The model accounted for (1) the effect of COPD mortality and morbidity on labour supply, (2) age and sex specific differences in education and work experience among those affected by COPD, and (3) the impact of COPD treatment costs on physical capital accumulation. We obtained data from various public sources including the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019, the World Bank database, and the literature. The macroeconomic burden of COPD was assessed by comparing gross domestic product (GDP) between a scenario projecting disease prevalence based on current estimates and a counterfactual scenario with zero COPD prevalence from 2020 to 2050.

FINDINGS

Our findings suggest that COPD will cost the world economy INT$4·326 trillion (uncertainty interval 3·327-5·516; at constant 2017 prices) in 2020-50. This economic effect is equivalent to a yearly tax of 0·111% (0·085-0·141) on global GDP. China and the USA face the largest economic burdens from COPD, accounting for INT$1·363 trillion (uncertainty interval 1·034-1·801) and INT$1·037 trillion (0·868-1·175), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

The macroeconomic burden of COPD is large and unequally distributed across countries, world regions, and income levels. Our study stresses the urgent need to invest in global efforts to curb the health and economic burdens of COPD. Investments in effective interventions against COPD do not represent a burden but could instead provide substantial economic returns in the foreseeable future.

FUNDING

Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, National Natural Science Foundation of China, CAMS Innovation Fund for Medical Science, Chinese Academy of Engineering project, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College project, and Horizon Europe.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Chinese and German translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Prevalence of dementia in India: National and state estimates from a nationwide study

INTRODUCTION

Prior estimates of dementia prevalence in India were based on samples from selected communities, inadequately representing the national and state populations.

METHODS

From the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI) we recruited a sample of adults ages 60+ and administered a rich battery of neuropsychological tests and an informant interview in 2018 through 2020. We obtained a clinical consensus rating of dementia status for a subsample (N = 2528), fitted a logistic model for dementia status on this subsample, and then imputed dementia status for all other LASI respondents aged 60+ (N = 28,949).

RESULTS

The estimated dementia prevalence for adults ages 60+ in India is 7.4%, with significant age and education gradients, sex and urban/rural differences, and cross-state variation.

DISCUSSION

An estimated 8.8 million Indians older than 60 years have dementia. The burden of dementia cases is unevenly distributed across states and subpopulations and may therefore require different levels of local planning and support.

HIGHLIGHTS

The estimated dementia prevalence for adults ages 60+ in India is 7.4%. About 8.8 million Indians older than 60 years live with dementia. Dementia is more prevalent among females than males and in rural than urban areas. Significant cross-state variation exists in dementia prevalence.

Modeling the potential health impact of prospective Strep A vaccines

The World Health Organization published the preferred product characteristics for a Group A Streptococcus (Strep A) vaccine in 2018. Based on these parameters for the age of vaccination, vaccine efficacy, duration of protection from vaccine-derived immunity, and vaccination coverage, we developed a static cohort model to estimate the projected health impact of Strep A vaccination at the global, regional, and national levels and by country-income category. We used the model to analyse six strategic scenarios. Based on Strep A vaccine introduction between 2022 and 2034 for the primary scenario, we estimated vaccination at birth for 30 vaccinated cohorts could avert 2.5 billion episodes of pharyngitis, 354 million episodes of impetigo, 1.4 million episodes of invasive disease, 24 million episodes of cellulitis, and 6 million cases of rheumatic heart disease globally. Vaccination impact in terms of burden averted per fully vaccinated individual is highest in North America for cellulitis and in Sub-Saharan Africa for rheumatic heart disease.

Optimal global spending for group A Streptococcus vaccine research and development

Group A Streptococcus (Strep A) leads to 600,000 deaths and 600 million cases of pharyngitis annually. Although long a promising target for vaccine development, how much funding should be allocated to develop a Strep A vaccine is unclear. We aim to calculate the optimal amount of global spending for Strep A vaccine development, the resulting benefits, and the social rate of return on this spending. We develop a model of optimal spending, from a global societal perspective, on research and development (R&D) for vaccines and treatments. The model takes as inputs total harm from the disease, the probability an R&D project succeeds, the cost of a project, and the fraction of total harm a success alleviates. Based on these inputs the model outputs an optimal amount of spending and a rate of return. We calibrate the model for Strep A. Optimal spending is estimated to be 2020 USD33 billion. This spending leads to 2020 USD1.63 trillion in benefits and a real return of 22.3% per year for thirty years. Sensitivity shows an optimal spending range of 15.9 billion to 58.5 billion, a benefits range of 1.6 trillion to 37.9 trillion, and a return range of 18.0-48.2%. Investment in a Strep A vaccine could create enormous benefits for comparatively little cost. It represents one of the highest return uses of public spending. Policy can promote Strep A vaccine development through direct funding of projects and by promoting financial mechanisms that allow the private sector to diversify its R&D investment.

Beyond GDP: Using healthy lifetime income to trace well-being over time with estimates for 193 countries

We measure well-being across 193 countries from 1990 to 2019 using a new indicator: healthy lifetime income (HLI). Apart from the income component as captured by standard per capita gross domestic product, HLI incorporates health as a second important component. Overall, HLI can be interpreted as the income of the average person in an economy during the years in which the person is in good health. We show that HLI has particular strengths as compared with other measures such as the Human Development Index. These include requiring only easily accessible data for its construction, having an immediate economic interpretation and unit of measurement, not needing the application of arbitrary weights of subcomponents, and not being bounded from above. As compared with using per capita gross domestic product as a metric for well-being, we find that countries with better population health tend to fare better in the rankings. This provides a rationale for investments in health and helps shift the focus from material well-being (as an instrumental indicator of well-being) toward health (as an intrinsic goal).

Global antibiotic use during the COVID-19 pandemic: analysis of pharmaceutical sales data from 71 countries, 2020-2022

BACKGROUND

Despite bacterial coinfection rates of less than 10%, antibiotics are prescribed to an estimated 75% of patients with COVID-19, potentially exacerbating antimicrobial resistance. We estimated the associations of COVID-19 cases and vaccinations with global antibiotic sales during the first two years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

METHODS

We obtained monthly data on broad-spectrum antibiotic sales volumes (cephalosporins, penicillins, macrolides, and tetracyclines) in 71 countries during March 2020-May 2022 from the IQVIA MIDAS® database. These data were combined with country-month-level COVID-19 case and vaccination data from Our World in Data. We used least squares (pooled) and fixed-effects panel data regression models, accounting for country characteristics, to estimate the associations between antibiotic sales volumes and COVID-19 cases and vaccinations per 1000 people.

FINDINGS

Sales of all four antibiotics fell sharply during April and May 2020, followed by a gradual rise to near pre-pandemic levels through May 2022. In fixed-effects regression models, a 10% increase in monthly COVID-19 cases was associated with 0.2%-0.3% higher sales of cephalosporins, 0.2%-0.3% higher sales of penicillins, 0.4%-0.6% higher sales of macrolides, and 0.3% higher sales of all four antibiotics combined per 1000 people. Across continents, a 10% increase in monthly COVID-19 cases was associated with 0.8%, 1.3%, and 1.5% higher macrolides sales in Europe, North America, and Africa respectively. Sales of other antibiotics across continent were also positively associated with COVID-19 cases, although the estimated associations were smaller in magnitude. No consistent associations were observed between antibiotic sales and COVID-19 vaccinations. Results from pooled regression analysis were similar to those from the fixed-effects models.

INTERPRETATION

Antibiotic sales were positively associated with COVID-19 cases globally during 2020-2022. Our findings underline that antibiotic stewardship in the context of COVID-19 remains essential.

FUNDING

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Vaccines for a sustainable planet

The health of the planet is one objective of the United Nations' Sustainable Development Goals. Vaccines can affect not only human health but also planet health by reducing poverty, preserving microbial diversity, reducing antimicrobial resistance, and preventing an increase in pandemics that is fueled partly by climate change.

Estimates and Projections of the Global Economic Cost of 29 Cancers in 204 Countries and Territories From 2020 to 2050

Importance

Cancers are a leading cause of mortality, accounting for nearly 10 million annual deaths worldwide, or 1 in 6 deaths. Cancers also negatively affect countries' economic growth. However, the global economic cost of cancers and its worldwide distribution have yet to be studied.

Objective

To estimate and project the economic cost of 29 cancers in 204 countries and territories.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A decision analytical model that incorporates economic feedback in assessing health outcomes associated with the labor force and investment. A macroeconomic model was used to account for (1) the association of cancer-related mortality and morbidity with labor supply; (2) age-sex-specific differences in education, experience, and labor market participation of those who are affected by cancers; and (3) the diversion of cancer treatment expenses from savings and investments. Data were collected on April 25, 2022.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Economic cost of 29 cancers across countries and territories. Costs are presented in international dollars at constant 2017 prices.

Results

The estimated global economic cost of cancers from 2020 to 2050 is $25.2 trillion in international dollars (at constant 2017 prices), equivalent to an annual tax of 0.55% on global gross domestic product. The 5 cancers with the highest economic costs are tracheal, bronchus, and lung cancer (15.4%); colon and rectum cancer (10.9%); breast cancer (7.7%); liver cancer (6.5%); and leukemia (6.3%). China and the US face the largest economic costs of cancers in absolute terms, accounting for 24.1% and 20.8% of the total global burden, respectively. Although 75.1% of cancer deaths occur in low- and middle-income countries, their share of the economic cost of cancers is lower at 49.5%. The relative contribution of treatment costs to the total economic cost of cancers is greater in high-income countries than in low-income countries.

Conclusions and Relevance

In this decision analytical modeling study, the macroeconomic cost of cancers was found to be substantial and distributed heterogeneously across cancer types, countries, and world regions. The findings suggest that global efforts to curb the ongoing burden of cancers are warranted.

Cohort Profile: Real-Time Insights of COVID-19 in India (RTI COVID-India)

BACKGROUND

The coronavirus disease (COVID) pandemic caused disruption globally and was particularly distressing in low- and middle-income countries such as India. This study aimed to provide population representative estimates of COVID-related outcomes in India over time and characterize how COVID-related changes and impacts differ by key socioeconomic groups across the life course.

METHODS

The sample was leveraged from an existing nationally representative study on cognition and dementia in India: Harmonized Diagnostic Assessment of Dementia for the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI-DAD). The wave-1 of LASI-DAD enrolled 4096 older adults aged 60 years and older in 3316 households from 18 states and union territories of India. Out of the 3316 LASI-DAD households, 2704 with valid phone numbers were contacted and invited to participate in the Real-Time Insights COVID-19 in India (RTI COVID-India) study. RTI COVID-India was a bi-monthly phone survey that provided insight into the individual's knowledge, attitudes, and behaviour towards COVID-19 and changes in the household's economic and health conditions throughout the pandemic. The survey was started in May 2020 and 9 rounds of data have been collected.

FINDINGS TILL DATE

Out of the 2704 LASI-DAD households with valid phone numbers, 1766 households participated in the RTI COVID-India survey at least once. Participants were in the age range of 18-102 years, 49% were female, 66% resided in rural area. Across all rounds, there was a higher report of infection among respondents aged 60-69 years. There was a greater prevalence of COVID-19 diagnosis reported in urban (23.0%) compared to rural areas (9.8%). Respondents with higher education had a greater prevalence of COVID-19 diagnosis compared to those with lower or no formal education. Highest prevalence of COVID-19 diagnosis was reported from high economic status compared to middle and low economic status households. Comparing education gradients in experiencing COVID-19 symptoms and being diagnosed, we observe an opposite pattern: respondents with no formal schooling reported the highest level of experiencing COVID-19 symptoms, whereas the greatest proportion of the respondents with secondary school or higher education reported being diagnosed with COVID-19.

FUTURE PLANS

The study group will analyse the data collected showing the real-time changes throughout the pandemic and will make the data widely available for researchers to conduct further studies.

The Societal Value of Vaccines: Expert-Based Conceptual Framework and Methods Using COVID-19 Vaccines as a Case Study

Health technology assessments (HTAs) of vaccines typically focus on the direct health benefits to individuals and healthcare systems. COVID-19 highlighted the widespread societal impact of infectious diseases and the value of vaccines in averting adverse clinical consequences and in maintaining or resuming social and economic activities. Using COVID-19 as a case study, this research work aimed to set forth a conceptual framework capturing the broader value elements of vaccines and to identify appropriate methods to quantify value elements not routinely considered in HTAs. A two-step approach was adopted, combining a targeted literature review and three rounds of expert elicitation based on a modified Delphi method, leading to a conceptual framework of 30 value elements related to broader health effects, societal and economic impact, public finances, and uncertainty value. When applying the framework to COVID-19 vaccines in post-pandemic settings, 13 value elements were consensually rated highly important by the experts for consideration in HTAs. The experts reviewed over 10 methods that could be leveraged to quantify broader value elements and provided technical forward-looking recommendations. Limitations of the framework and the identified methods were discussed. This study supplements ongoing efforts aimed towards a broader recognition of the full societal value of vaccines.

Deep phenotyping and genomic data from a nationally representative study on dementia in India

The Harmonized Diagnostic Assessment of Dementia for the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI-DAD) is a nationally representative in-depth study of cognitive aging and dementia. We present a publicly available dataset of harmonized cognitive measures of 4,096 adults 60 years of age and older in India, collected across 18 states and union territories. Blood samples were obtained to carry out whole blood and serum-based assays. Results are included in a venous blood specimen datafile that can be linked to the Harmonized LASI-DAD dataset. A global screening array of 960 LASI-DAD respondents is also publicly available for download, in addition to neuroimaging data on 137 LASI-DAD participants. Altogether, these datasets provide comprehensive information on older adults in India that allow researchers to further understand risk factors associated with cognitive impairment and dementia.

Caregiver perceptions of the broader societal benefits of vaccination: A path toward sustainable vaccine advocacy in India

Over the last decade growing public health evidence suggests that, in addition to health-related benefits, there are also social and economic benefits of vaccination. Research to understand how caregivers in low-and-middle-income countries perceive these social and economic benefits, or if these benefits factor into their vaccination decisions for their children, has been limited. Leveraging qualitative strategies to gain more nuanced insights into caregiver perceptions of vaccination benefits has also been significantly underexplored. We conducted in-depth interviews with 13 caregivers of children, at which point we reached saturation, in Mewat District, Haryana, an area in India with low vaccination coverage. Interview results suggest that caregivers of children associate positive health outcomes with vaccination programs, and some additional social and economic benefits beyond improved health outcomes. Caregivers also shared how local advocacy and gaps in vaccination programs can affect their perceptions of vaccination benefits. Qualitatively exploring the perceived benefits provides a unique understanding of the value that caregivers assign to vaccination and complements existing knowledge on factors that dissuade caregivers from vaccination. These insights will allow researchers to better identify and design context-specific advocacy strategies to strengthen vaccination programs in communities with low vaccine uptake and acceptance.

Nationally Subsidized Continuous Glucose Monitoring: A Cost-effectiveness Analysis

OBJECTIVE

The Continuous Glucose Monitoring (CGM) Initiative recently introduced universal subsidized CGM funding for people with type 1 diabetes under 21 years of age in Australia. We thus aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of this CGM Initiative based on national implementation data and project the economic impact of extending the subsidy to all age-groups.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We used a patient-level Markov model to simulate disease progression for young people with type 1 diabetes and compared government-subsidized access to CGM with the previous user-funded system. Three years of real-world clinical input data were sourced from analysis of the Australasian Diabetes Data Network and National Diabetes Services Scheme registries. Costs were considered from the Australian health care system's perspective. An annual discount rate of 5% was applied to future costs and outcomes. Uncertainty was evaluated with probabilistic and deterministic sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

Government-subsidized CGM funding for young people with type 1 diabetes compared with a completely user-funded model resulted in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of AUD 39,518 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained. Most simulations (85%) were below the commonly accepted willingness-to-pay threshold of AUD 50,000 per QALY gained in Australia. Sensitivity analyses indicated that base-case results were robust, though strongly impacted by the cost of CGM devices. Extending the CGM Initiative throughout adulthood resulted in an ICER of AUD 34,890 per QALY gained.

CONCLUSIONS

Providing subsidized access to CGM for people with type 1 diabetes was found to be cost-effective compared with a completely user-funded model in Australia.

The prevalence of vision impairment and blindness among older adults in India: findings from the Longitudinal Ageing Study in India

Vision impairment and blindness are strongly associated with aging and late-life disability. While home to about 17% of the world's population, an estimated 25% of visually impaired people globally live in India. This proportion is expected to increase as India's population rapidly ages and continues to grow. There is a need for up-to-date epidemiologic data on the prevalence of vision impairment and blindness in India and on the socioeconomic determinants of poor vision, especially among older adults, to promote visual and overall health and well-being in later life. This paper uses newly available data from Wave 1 (2017-2019) of the population-based Longitudinal Ageing Study in India to estimate the overall and sex-specific prevalence of presenting visual acuity impairment and blindness among individuals aged 45 and older at the national level and for all constituent states and union territories. Overall, 33.8% (95% confidence interval: 33.31%, 34.26%) of the Indian population aged 45 and older had distance visual acuity impairment or was blind (visual acuity in the better-seeing eye < 20/40). The age-standardized prevalence varied considerably among states (22.3-54.6%), and women were more likely than men to be visually impaired or blind in all states. Near visual acuity impairment was also highly prevalent (43.0%, 95% confidence interval: 42.45%, 43.46%). Vision impairment and blindness were more common among marginalized groups and were associated with lower socioeconomic status. Findings from this study are relevant for surveillance of vision health, design of targeted eye care policies and programs and efforts to promote human and economic development.

Factors underlying COVID-19 vaccine and booster hesitancy and refusal, and incentivizing vaccine adoption

The paper investigates the factors underlying COVID-19 vaccine and booster hesitancy in the United States, and the efficacy of various incentives or disincentives to expand uptake. We use cross-sectional, national survey data on 3,497 U.S. adults collected online from September 10, 2021 to October 20, 2021 through the Qualtrics platform. Results from a multinomial logistic regression reveal that hesitancy and refusal were greatest among those who expressed a lack of trust either in government or in the vaccine’s efficacy (hesitancy relative risk ratio, or RRR: 2.86, 95% CI: 2.13–3.83, p<0.001). Hesitancy and refusal were lowest among those who typically get a flu vaccine (hesitancy RRR: 0.28, 95% CI: 0.21–0.36, p<0.001; refusal RRR: 0.08, 95% CI: 0.05–0.13, p<0.001). Similar results hold for the intention to get a booster shot among the fully vaccinated. Monetary rewards (i.e., lottery ticket and gift cards) fared poorly in moving people toward vaccination. In contrast, the prospect of job loss or increased health insurance premiums was found to significantly increase vaccine uptake, by 8.7 percentage points (p<0.001) and 9.4 percentage points (p<0.001), respectively. We also show that the motivations underlying individuals’ hesitancy or refusal to get vaccinated vary, which, in turn, suggests that messaging must be refined and directed accordingly. Also, moving forward, it may be fruitful to more deeply study the intriguing possibility that expanding flu vaccine uptake may also enhance willingness to vaccinate in times of pandemics. Last, disincentives such as work-based vaccination mandates that would result in job loss or higher health insurance premiums for those who refuse vaccination should be strongly considered to improve vaccine uptake in the effort to address the common good.

Global and regional projections of the economic burden of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias from 2019 to 2050: A value of statistical life approach

BACKGROUND

The burden of Alzheimer's disease and related dementias (ADRDs) is expected to grow rapidly with population aging, especially in low- and middle-income countries, in the next few decades. We used a willingness-to-pay approach to project the global, regional, and national economic burden of ADRDs from 2019 to 2050 under status quo.

METHODS

We projected age group and country-specific disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) lost to ADRDs in future years based on historical growth in disease burden and available population projections. We used country-specific extrapolations of the value of a statistical life (VSL) year and its future projections based on historical income growth to estimate the economic burden - measured in terms of the value of lost DALYs - of ADRDs. A probabilistic uncertainty analysis was used to calculate point estimates and 95% uncertainty bounds of the economic burden.

FINDINGS

In 2019, the global VSL-based economic burden of ADRDs was an estimated $2.8 trillion. The burden was projected to increase to $4.7 trillion (95% uncertainty bound: $4 trillion-$5.5 trillion) in 2030, $8.5 trillion ($6.8 trillion-$10.8 trillion) in 2040, and $16.9 trillion ($11.3 trillion-$27.3 trillion) in 2050. Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) would account for 65% of the global VSL-based economic burden in 2050, as compared with only 18% in 2019. Within LMICs, upper-middle income countries would carry the largest VSL-based economic burden by 2050 (92% of LMICs burden and 60% of global burden).

INTERPRETATION

ADRDs have a large and inequitable projected future VSL-based economic burden.

FUNDING

The Davos Alzheimer's Collaborative.

The global burden of sore throat and group A Streptococcus pharyngitis: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Contemporary data for the global burden of sore throat and group A Streptococcus (Strep A) pharyngitis are required to understand the frequency of disease and develop value propositions for Strep A vaccines.

METHODS

We used Clarivate Analytics' Web of Science platform to search WoS core collection, PubMed, Medline, data citation index, KCI-Korean Journal Database, Russian Science Citation Index, and the SciELO Citation Index for articles published between Jan 1, 2000, and Feb 15, 2021, from any country and in any language. The risk of bias was assessed using the JBI critical appraisal checklist. We used random-effects meta-analyses to pool sore throat and Strep A sore throat incidence rates from community-based studies. Our study was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42020181103).

FINDINGS

Of 5,529 articles identified by the search strategy, 26 studies met the inclusion criteria, but only two included data to determine incidence among adults. The pooled incidence rate, calculated for children only, was 82.2 episodes per 100 child-years (95% CI 25.2-286.3, I² = 100%) for sore throat (7 studies; 7,964 person years) and 22.1 episodes per 100 child-years (95% CI 14.7-33.1, I² = 98%) for Strep A sore throat (9 studies; 15,696 person years). The pooled cumulative incidence rate of sore throat from five studies was 31.9 per 100 children. There was significant methodological and statistical heterogeneity among studies, and five of 26 studies had a risk of bias score less than five (range: nine [maximum score] to one).

INTERPRETATION

Strep A sore throat has a considerable global burden. However, methodologically standardised studies are required to quantify that burden, analyse differences in rates between populations, and evaluate the likely impact of future Strep A vaccines.

FUNDING

This study was funded by Wellcome Trust 215,490/Z/19/Z.

Prevalence of intimate partner violence against infertile women in low-income and middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Background

Infertility and intimate partner violence (IPV) are of serious concern globally, yet the prevalence of IPV against infertile women has not been quantified at the regional or global level. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of IPV against infertile women and its variation in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs).

Methods

We did a systematic literature search of 11 databases for articles published between database inception and Sept 30, 2021, and performed meta-analyses to estimate the pooled prevalence and 95% CI of IPV against infertile women in LMICs. We used subgroup analyses and meta-regressions to explore variation in the prevalence by study period (2010 and before vs after 2010), study region (Africa, west Asia, south Asia, and east Asia), type of infertility (primary or secondary), risk of bias (high, moderate, or low), sample size (continuous variable), and measuring tools (the modified Abuse Assessment Screen, the WHO Violence Against Women instrument, or the revised Conflict Tactics Scales). This study is registered with PROSPERO, CRD42021248448.

Findings

Of 2661 references identified (2637 via database searches and 24 via secondary searches), 120 full-text articles were reviewed, and we identified 30 relevant studies conducted in nine LMICs between 2000 and 2019. 25 studies met the inclusion criteria for meta-analysis, with a total sample size of 7164 participants. The 12-month prevalence of IPV among infertile women was 36·0% (95% CI 20·4–55·2), compared with a lifetime prevalence of 47·2% (31·7–63·3). The most common type of IPV was psychological violence, with a prevalence of 24·6% (11·3–45·6) over 12 months and 51·5% (38·8–64·0) over a lifetime (slightly higher than the pooled overall rate due to different data sources), respectively; followed by physical violence (11·9% [5·2–25·1] and 20·2% [12·1–31·7]); sexual violence (8·7% [2·6–25·0] and 11·5% [6·1–20·7]); and economic coercion (2·6% [0·4–13·7] and 9·8% [5·7–16·5]). Significant variations of lifetime prevalence estimates were presented by study period (R²=39·46%), region (R²=50·95%), and measuring tools (R²=54·27%).

Interpretation

A high prevalence of IPV against infertile women is evident despite heterogeneity across studies. IPV screening, counselling, and structural interventions should be tailored to address this urgent issue at multiple levels of society.

Funding

China Medical Board and WHO.

The Approach to the COVID-19 Pandemic in Georgia-A Health Policy Analysis

Objectives: This study aimed to analyze key COVID-19 pandemic-related policies and national strategic responses in light of Georgia’s political, socioeconomic and cultural backgrounds.

Methods: We applied a policy triangle framework for policy analysis, performed document and media content analysis, and described pandemic trends statistically.

Results: Early introduction of stringent restrictive measures largely prevented a first wave in March–May 2020. This was communicated as a success story, prompting a public success perception. With unpopular restrictions lifted and hesitancy to embrace evidence-informed policymaking ahead of nationwide parliamentary elections, SARS-CoV-2 infection spread rapidly and was met with an insufficiently coordinated effort. Facing health system capacity saturation an almost complete lockdown was re-introduced in late 2020. Factors as delayed immunization campaign, insufficient coordination and, again, little evidence-informed policymaking eventually led to another devastating COVID-19 wave in summer of 2021.

Conclusion: Georgia’s pandemic health policy response was adversely impacted by a volatile political environment. National pandemic preparedness and response might benefit from an independent body with appointment procedures and operations shielded from political influences to effectively inform and communicate evidence-based pandemic policy.

Forecasting the Incremental Value to Society Created by a Class of New Prescription Drugs: A Proposed Methodology and Its Application to Treating Chronic Hepatitis C in India

BACKGROUND

For low- and middle-income countries, the forecasted incremental value to society created by a class of new prescription drugs would be a useful criterion to prioritize the licensing, subsidization, and provision of new drugs.

OBJECTIVES

We provide a methodology to forecast the value of a new class of drugs, defined as the incremental value obtained in the scenario in which the new class of drugs is available along with existing drugs compared with the scenario of existing drugs only. We forecasted the value created by direct-acting antiviral drugs to treat chronic hepatitis C in India.

METHOD

We conducted a physician survey together with an aggregate multinomial logit model to forecast for each patient type the fraction of physicians who would prescribe the new drug under different scenarios. Value was determined by the monetary equivalent of increased life expectancy, reduced disability, and decreased future infection of others, minus drug cost, all treatment-related costs, and the cost of side effects.

RESULTS

We forecasted that the introduction of direct-acting antiviral drugs is likely to create USD11.5 billion of value in India over a 5-year period, based on a 'realistic' assumption about the growth rate of India's per capita GDP. Under 'pessimistic' and 'optimistic' assumptions about the growth rate, the value changes to USD6.5 and 22.5 billion, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

There is major value likely to be created by the new direct-acting antiviral drugs in treating hepatitis C in India; this is consistent with the Indian Government's decision to provide the drugs free of cost.

The trillion dollar vaccine gap

New technologies and unprecedented public investment have transformed vaccine development and allowed fast delivery of safe and efficacious COVID-19 vaccines, mitigating the impact of the pandemic on health and the economy. A quantum change in public investment for vaccine development and widespread vaccine distribution are necessary to achieve global pandemic preparedness.

Hypertension awareness, treatment, and control and their association with healthcare access in the middle-aged and older Indian population: A nationwide cohort study

BACKGROUND

Hypertension is the most important cardiovascular risk factor in India, and representative studies of middle-aged and older Indian adults have been lacking. Our objectives were to estimate the proportions of hypertensive adults who had been diagnosed, took antihypertensive medication, and achieved control in the middle-aged and older Indian population and to investigate the association between access to healthcare and hypertension management.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We designed a nationally representative cohort study of the middle-aged and older Indian population, the Longitudinal Aging Study in India (LASI), and analyzed data from the 2017-2019 baseline wave (N = 72,262) and the 2010 pilot wave (N = 1,683). Hypertension was defined as self-reported physician diagnosis or elevated blood pressure (BP) on measurement, defined as systolic BP ≥ 140 mm Hg or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mm Hg. Among hypertensive individuals, awareness, treatment, and control were defined based on self-reports of having been diagnosed, taking antihypertensive medication, and not having elevated BP, respectively. The estimated prevalence of hypertension for the Indian population aged 45 years and older was 45.9% (95% CI 45.4%-46.5%). Among hypertensive individuals, 55.7% (95% CI 54.9%-56.5%) had been diagnosed, 38.9% (95% CI 38.1%-39.6%) took antihypertensive medication, and 31.7% (95% CI 31.0%-32.4%) achieved BP control. In multivariable logistic regression models, access to public healthcare was a key predictor of hypertension treatment (odds ratio [OR] = 1.35, 95% CI 1.14-1.60, p = 0.001), especially in the most economically disadvantaged group (OR of the interaction for middle economic status = 0.76, 95% CI 0.61-0.94, p = 0.013; OR of the interaction for high economic status = 0.84, 95% CI 0.68-1.05, p = 0.124). Having health insurance was not associated with improved hypertension awareness among those with low economic status (OR = 0.96, 95% CI 0.86-1.07, p = 0.437) and those with middle economic status (OR of the interaction = 1.15, 95% CI 1.00-1.33, p = 0.051), but it was among those with high economic status (OR of the interaction = 1.28, 95% CI 1.10-1.48, p = 0.001). Comparing hypertension awareness, treatment, and control rates in the 4 pilot states, we found statistically significant (p < 0.001) improvement in hypertension management from 2010 to 2017-2019. The limitations of this study include the pilot sample being relatively small and that it recruited from only 4 states.

CONCLUSIONS

Although considerable variations in hypertension diagnosis, treatment, and control exist across different sociodemographic groups and geographic areas, reducing uncontrolled hypertension remains a public health priority in India. Access to healthcare is closely tied to both hypertension diagnosis and treatment.

Cost-utility and cost-benefit analysis of TAVR availability in the US severe symptomatic aortic stenosis patient population

AIMS

We evaluated the availability of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR) to determine its value across all severe symptomatic aortic stenosis (SSAS) patients, especially those untreated because of concerns regarding invasive surgical AVR (SAVR) and its impact on active aging.

METHODS

We performed payer perspective cost-utility analysis (CUA) and societal perspective cost-benefit analysis (CBA). The CBA's benefit measure is active time: salaried labor, unpaid work, and active leisure. The study population is a cohort of US elderly SSAS patients. We compared a "TAVR available" scenario in which SSAS patients distribute themselves across TAVR, SAVR, and medical management (MM); and a "TAVR not available" scenario with only SAVR and MM. We structured each scenario with a decision-tree model of SSAS patient treatment allocation. We measured the association between health and active time in the US Health and Retirement Study and used this association to impute active time to SSAS patients given their health.

RESULTS

The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) and rate of return (RoR) of TAVR availability were $8,533 and 395%, respectively. CUA net monetary benefits (NMB) were $212,199 per patient and $43.4 billion population-wide. CBA NMB were $50,530 per patient and $10.3 billion population-wide.

LIMITATIONS

Among study limitations were scarcity of evidence regarding key parameters and the lack of long-term survival, health utility, and treatment cost data. Our analysis did not account for TAVR durability, retreatments, and valve-in-valve treatments.

CONCLUSION

Across risk-, age-, and treatment-eligibility groups, TAVR is the economically optimal treatment choice. It represents strong value-for-money per patient and population-wide. The vast majority of TAVR value involves raising treatment uptake among the untreated.

Social Technology: An Interdisciplinary Approach to Improving Care for Older Adults

Population aging is a defining demographic reality of our era. It is associated with an increase in the societal burden of delivering care to older adults with chronic conditions or frailty. How to integrate global population aging and technology development to help address the growing demands for care facing many aging societies is both a challenge and an opportunity for innovation. We propose a social technology approach that promotes use of technologies to assist individuals, families, and communities to cope more effectively with the disabilities of older adults who can no longer live independently due to dementia, serious mental illness, and multiple chronic health problems. The main contributions of the social technology approach include: (1) fostering multidisciplinary collaboration among social scientists, engineers, and healthcare experts; (2) including ethical and humanistic standards in creating and evaluating innovations; (3) improving social systems through working with those who deliver, manage, and design older adult care services; (4) promoting social justice through social policy research and innovation, particularly for disadvantaged groups; (5) fostering social integration by creating age-friendly and intergenerational programs; and (6) seeking global benefit by identifying and generalizing best practices. As an emergent, experimental approach, social technology requires systematic evaluation in an iterative process to refine its relevance and uses in different local settings. By linking technological interventions to the social and cultural systems of older people, we aim to help technological advances become an organic part of the complex social world that supports and sustains care delivery to older adults in need.

Correction: Social determinants of mortality from COVID-19: A simulation study using NHANES

[This corrects the article DOI: 10.1371/journal.pmed.1003490.].

Community perceptions of vaccination among influential stakeholders: qualitative research in rural India

Background

In India and other low- and middle-income countries, multiple family and community members are influential in caregivers’ perceptions of vaccination. Existing literature indicates the primary caregiver, typically the mother, is instrumental in vaccine decision-making, but this may vary in contexts. We investigated the role of stakeholders in India who influence caregivers’ vaccination perceptions, as this is essential to developing strategies to promote vaccine acceptance and improve uptake.

Methods

This research was conducted in 2019 in Mewat District in Haryana, an area in India with extremely low vaccination coverage. We conducted six focus group discussions with 60 participants in the following categories: fathers of children under-5 years old, expectant mothers, mothers-in-law, community health workers, and community influencers such as locally elected officials and religious leaders.

Results

Our results highlighted four themes that influence vaccine uptake. First, while caregivers associated vaccination with reductions in specific diseases, they also noted that vaccination services brought broad health gains, including improved nutrition, antenatal guidance, and social support. Second, community health workers critically influenced, positively or negatively, caregivers’ vaccination perceptions. Third, community health workers faced gaps in their education such as limited training on vaccine side-effects, placing them at a disadvantage when dealing with families. Finally, we found that mothers-in-law, fathers, and religious leaders influence caregivers’ perceptions of vaccination.

Conclusions

Communication of broader benefits of vaccines and vaccination services by community health workers could be impactful in increasing vaccine acceptance. Vaccine uptake could potentially be improved by facilitating community health workers’ ownership over vaccine acceptance and uptake by involving them in the design and implementation of interventions to target mothers and mothers-in-law. A ‘bottom-up’ approach, leveraging community health workers’ knowledge to design interventions, and giving a voice to key members of the household and society beyond mothers alone, may sustain health improvement in low vaccine coverage areas.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12889-021-12188-4.

Macro-level efficiency of health expenditure: Estimates for 15 major economies

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic highlights the importance of strong and resilient health systems. Yet how much a society should spend on healthcare is difficult to determine because additional health expenditures imply lower expenditures on other types of consumption. Furthermore, the welfare-maximizing ("efficient") aggregate amount and composition of health expenditures depend on efficiency concepts at three levels that often get blurred in the debate. While the understanding of efficiency is good at the micro- and meso-levels-that is, relating to minimal spending for a given bundle of treatments and to the optimal mix of different treatments, respectively-this understanding rarely links to the efficiency of aggregate health expenditure at the macroeconomic level. While micro- and meso-efficiency are necessary for macro-efficiency, they are not sufficient. We propose a novel framework of a macro-efficiency score to assess welfare-maximizing aggregate health expenditure. This allows us to assess the extent to which selected major economies underspend or overspend on health relative to their gross domestic products per capita. We find that all economies under consideration underspend on healthcare with the exception of the United States. Underspending is particularly severe in China, India, and the Russian Federation. Our study emphasizes that the major and urgent issue in many countries is underspending on health at the macroeconomic level, rather than containing costs at the microeconomic level.

The economic burden of COVID-19 in the United States: Estimates and projections under an infection-based herd immunity approach

OBJECTIVES

To assess the economic burden of COVID-19 that would arise absent behavioral or policy responses under the herd immunity approach in the United States and compare it to the total burden that also accounts for estimates of the value of lives lost.

METHODS

We use the trajectories of age-specific human and physical capital in the production process to calculate output changes based on a human capital-augmented production function. We also calculate the total burden that results when including the value of lives lost as calculated from mortality rates of COVID-19 and estimates for the value of a statistical life in the United States based on studies assessing individual's willingness to pay to avoid risks.

RESULTS

Our results indicate that the GDP loss associated with unmitigated COVID-19 would amount to a cumulative US$1.4 trillion by 2030 assuming that 60 percent of the population is infected over three years. This is equivalent to around 7.7 percent of GDP in 2019 (in constant 2010 US$) or an average tax on yearly output of 0.6 percent. After applying the value of a statistical life to account for the value of lives lost, our analyses show that the total burden can mount to between US$17 and 94 trillion over the next decade, which is equivalent to an annual tax burden between 8 and 43 percent.

CONCLUSION

Our results show that the United States would incur a sizeable burden if it adopted a non-interventionist herd immunity approach.

FUNDING

Research reported in this paper was supported by the Alexander von Humboldt Foundation, the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Project INV-006261), and the Sino-German Center for Research Promotion (Project C-0048), which is funded by the German Research Foundation (DFG) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC). Preparation of this article was also supported by the Value of Vaccination Research Network (VoVRN) through a grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (Grant OPP1158136). The content is solely the responsibility of the authors.

Estimating the net value of treating hepatitis C virus using sofosbuvir-velpatasvir in India

Recently developed direct-acting antiviral (DAA) treatments for hepatitis C virus (HCV) have been groundbreaking for their high efficacy across disease genotypes and lack of severe side effects. This study uses a cost-of-illness (COI) approach to estimate the net value conferred by this class of drugs using the cost and efficacy of one of these novel drug combinations, sofosbuvir and velpatasvir (SOF/VEL), recently licensed for generic manufacture in India. This study considers COI of lifetime earnings lost by patients and potential secondarily infected individuals due to disability and premature death from HCV infection. Expected net benefits of treatment are substantial for non-cirrhotic (NC) and compensated cirrhotic (CC) patients (ranging from 5,98,003 INR for NC women to 1,05,25,504 INR for CC men). Increased earnings are not sufficient to fully offset cost of treatment for decompensated cirrhotic individuals but treatment may still be justified on the basis of the intrinsic value of health improvements and other treatment benefits.

COVID-19 Vaccine Allocation: Modeling Health Outcomes and Equity Implications of Alternative Strategies

Given the scarcity of safe and effective COVID-19 vaccines, a chief policy question is how to allocate them among different sociodemographic groups. This paper evaluates COVID-19 vaccine prioritization strategies proposed to date, focusing on their stated goals; the mechanisms through which the selected allocations affect the course and burden of the pandemic; and the main epidemiological, economic, logistical, and political issues that arise when setting the prioritization strategy. The paper uses a simple, age-stratified susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered model applied to the United States to quantitatively assess the performance of alternative prioritization strategies with respect to avoided deaths, avoided infections, and life-years gained. We demonstrate that prioritizing essential workers is a viable strategy for reducing the number of cases and years of life lost, while the largest reduction in deaths is achieved by prioritizing older adults in most scenarios, even if the vaccine is effective at blocking viral transmission. Uncertainty regarding this property and potential delays in dose delivery reinforce the call for prioritizing older adults. Additionally, we investigate the strength of the equity motive that would support an allocation strategy attaching absolute priority to essential workers for a vaccine that reduces infection-fatality risk.

The cost-of-illness due to rheumatic heart disease: national estimates for Fiji

BACKGROUND

Rheumatic heart disease (RHD) is a chronic valvular heart disease that is responsible for a heavy burden of premature mortality in low- and middle-income countries. The total costs of RHD are important to health policy and research investment decisions. We estimate for the first time the total cost of RHD for Fiji (2008-2012) using a cost-of-illness approach and novel primary data on RHD disease burden and costs.

METHODS

RHD cases were identified using probabilistic record linkage across four routine data sources: (1) the Fiji RHD Control Program, (2) national hospital admissions records, (3) the Ministry of Health database of cause-specific deaths and (4) hospital ECG clinic registers. For each individual with RHD, we obtained information on RHD hospital admissions, treatment and death. We conducted a prevalence-based cost-of-illness analysis, including bottom-up assessment of indirect and direct (healthcare) costs.

RESULTS

The estimated cost of RHD in Fiji for 2008-2012 was year-2010 $FJ91.6 million (approximately US$47.7 million). Productivity losses from premature mortality constituted the majority of costs (71.4%). Indirect costs were 27-fold larger than the direct costs.

CONCLUSIONS

RHD leads to a heavy economic burden in Fiji. Improved prevention strategies for RHD will likely confer substantial economic benefits to the country.