From first to second wave: follow-up of the prospective COVID-19 cohort (KoCo19) in Munich (Germany)

Differential DNA methylation 7 months after SARS-CoV-2 infection

BACKGROUND

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), and SARS-CoV-2 has been linked to changes in DNA methylation (DNAm) patterns. Studies focused on post-SARS-CoV-2 infection and DNAm have been mainly carried out among severe COVID-19 cases or without distinguishing the severity of cases. However, investigations into mild and asymptomatic cases after SARS-CoV-2 infection are limited. In this study, we analyzed DNAm patterns of mild and asymptomatic cases seven months after SARS-CoV-2 infection in a household setting by conducting epigenome-wide association studies (EWAS).

RESULTS

We identified DNAm changes at 42 CpG sites associated with anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibody levels. We additionally report EWAS between COVID-19 cases and controls, with the case status being confirmed by either an antibody test or a PCR test. The EWAS with an antibody test case definition identified 172 CpG sites to be differentially methylated, while the EWAS with a PCR test case definition identified 502 CpG sites. Two common sites, namely cg17126990 (annotated to AFAP1L2) and cg25483596 (annotated to PC), were identified to be hypermethylated across the three EWAS. Both CpG sites have been reported to be involved in molecular pathways after SARS-CoV-2 infection. While AFAP1L2 has been found to be upregulated after SARS-CoV-2 infection, the pyruvate carboxylase (PC) activity seems to be affected by SARS-CoV-2 infection resulting in changes to the host cell metabolism. Additionally, an EWAS to assess persistent health restrictions among PCR-confirmed cases showed 40 CpG sites to be differentially methylated.

CONCLUSIONS

We detected associations between DNAm in individuals who had asymptomatic and mild SARS-CoV-2 infections as compared to their household controls. These findings contribute to our understanding of the molecular consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection observed months after infection.

Evolution of protective SARS-CoV-2-specific B and T cell responses upon vaccination and Omicron breakthrough infection

Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Omicron breakthrough infection (BTI) induced better protection than triple vaccination. To address the underlying immunological mechanisms, we studied antibody and T cell response dynamics during vaccination and after BTI. Each vaccination significantly increased peak neutralization titers with simultaneous increases in circulating spike-specific T cell frequencies. Neutralization titers significantly associated with a reduced hazard rate for SARS-CoV-2 infection. Yet, 97% of triple vaccinees became SARS-CoV-2 infected. BTI further boosted neutralization magnitude and breadth, broadened virus-specific T cell responses to non-vaccine-encoded antigens, and protected with an efficiency of 88% from further infections by December 2022. This effect was then assessed by utilizing mathematical modeling, which accounted for time-dependent infection risk, the antibody, and T cell concentration at any time point after BTI. Our findings suggest that cross-variant protective hybrid immunity induced by vaccination and BTI was an important contributor to the reduced virus transmission observed in Bavaria in late 2022 and thereafter.

A Dried Blood Spot protocol for high-throughput quantitative analysis of SARS-CoV-2 RBD serology based on the Roche Elecsys system

SARS-CoV-2 spreads pandemically since 2020; in 2021, effective vaccinations became available and vaccination campaigns commenced. Still, it is hard to track the spread of the infection or to assess vaccination success in the broader population. Measuring specific anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies is the most effective tool to track the spread of the infection or successful vaccinations. The need for venous-blood sampling however poses a significant barrier for large studies. Dried-blood-spots on filter-cards (DBS) have been used for SARS-CoV-2 serology in our laboratory, but so far not to follow quantitative SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike reactivity in a longitudinal cohort. We developed a semi-automated protocol or quantitative SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike serology from self-sampled DBS, validating it in a cohort of matched DBS and venous-blood samples (n = 825). We investigated chromatographic effects, reproducibility, and carry-over effects and calculated a positivity threshold as well as a conversion formula to determine the quantitative binding units in the DBS with confidence intervals. Sensitivity and specificity reached 96.63% and 97.81%, respectively, compared to the same test performed in paired venous samples. Between a signal of 0.018 and 250 U/mL, we calculated a correction formula. Measuring longitudinal samples during vaccinations, we demonstrated relative changes in titers over time in several individuals and in a longitudinal cohort over four follow-ups. DBS sampling has proven itself for anti-nucleocapsid serosurveys in our laboratory. Similarly, anti-spike high-throughput DBS serology is feasible as a complementary assay. Quantitative measurements are accurate enough to follow titer dynamics in populations also after vaccination campaigns. This work was supported by the Bavarian State Ministry of Science and the Arts; LMU University Hospital, LMU Munich; Helmholtz Center Munich; University of Bonn; University of Bielefeld; German Ministry for Education and Research (proj. nr.: 01KI20271 and others) and the Medical Biodefense Research Program of the Bundeswehr Medical Service. Roche Diagnostics provided kits and machines for analyses at discounted rates. The project is funded also by the European-wide Consortium ORCHESTRA. The ORCHESTRA project has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under grant agreement No 101016167. The views expressed in this publication are the sole responsibility of the author, and the Commission is not responsible for any use that may be made of the information it contains.IMPORTANCESARS-CoV-2 has been spreading globally as a pandemic since 2020. To determine the prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies among populations, the most effective public health tool is measuring specific anti-SARS-CoV-2 antibodies induced by infection or vaccination. However, conducting large-scale studies that involve venous-blood sampling is challenging due to the associated feasibility and cost issues. A more cost-efficient and less invasive method for SARS-CoV-2 serological testing is using Dried-Blood-Spots on filter cards (DBS). In this paper, we have developed a semi-automated protocol for quantifying SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike antibodies from self-collected DBS. Our laboratory has previously successfully used DBS sampling for anti-nucleocapsid antibody surveys. Likewise, conducting high-throughput DBS serology for anti-spike antibodies is feasible as an additional test that can be performed using the same sample preparation as the anti-nucleocapsid analysis. The quantitative measurements obtained are accurate enough to track the dynamics of antibody levels in populations, even after vaccination campaigns.

The representative COVID-19 cohort Munich (KoCo19): from the beginning of the pandemic to the Delta virus variant

BACKGROUND

Population-based serological studies allow to estimate prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 infections despite a substantial number of mild or asymptomatic disease courses. This became even more relevant for decision making after vaccination started. The KoCo19 cohort tracks the pandemic progress in the Munich general population for over two years, setting it apart in Europe.

METHODS

Recruitment occurred during the initial pandemic wave, including 5313 participants above 13 years from private households in Munich. Four follow-ups were held at crucial times of the pandemic, with response rates of at least 70%. Participants filled questionnaires on socio-demographics and potential risk factors of infection. From Follow-up 2, information on SARS-CoV-2 vaccination was added. SARS-CoV-2 antibody status was measured using the Roche Elecsys® Anti-SARS-CoV-2 anti-N assay (indicating previous infection) and the Roche Elecsys® Anti-SARS-CoV-2 anti-S assay (indicating previous infection and/or vaccination). This allowed us to distinguish between sources of acquired antibodies.

RESULTS

The SARS-CoV-2 estimated cumulative sero-prevalence increased from 1.6% (1.1-2.1%) in May 2020 to 14.5% (12.7-16.2%) in November 2021. Underreporting with respect to official numbers fluctuated with testing policies and capacities, becoming a factor of more than two during the second half of 2021. Simultaneously, the vaccination campaign against the SARS-CoV-2 virus increased the percentage of the Munich population having antibodies, with 86.8% (85.5-87.9%) having developed anti-S and/or anti-N in November 2021. Incidence rates for infections after (BTI) and without previous vaccination (INS) differed (ratio INS/BTI of 2.1, 0.7-3.6). However, the prevalence of infections was higher in the non-vaccinated population than in the vaccinated one. Considering the whole follow-up time, being born outside Germany, working in a high-risk job and living area per inhabitant were identified as risk factors for infection, while other socio-demographic and health-related variables were not. Although we obtained significant within-household clustering of SARS-CoV-2 cases, no further geospatial clustering was found.

CONCLUSIONS

Vaccination increased the coverage of the Munich population presenting SARS-CoV-2 antibodies, but breakthrough infections contribute to community spread. As underreporting stays relevant over time, infections can go undetected, so non-pharmaceutical measures are crucial, particularly for highly contagious strains like Omicron.

Clinical and Demographic Factors Associated With COVID-19, Severe COVID-19, and SARS-CoV-2 Infection in Adults: A Secondary Cross-Protocol Analysis of 4 Randomized Clinical Trials

Importance

Current data identifying COVID-19 risk factors lack standardized outcomes and insufficiently control for confounders.

Objective

To identify risk factors associated with COVID-19, severe COVID-19, and SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Design, Setting, and Participants

This secondary cross-protocol analysis included 4 multicenter, international, randomized, blinded, placebo-controlled, COVID-19 vaccine efficacy trials with harmonized protocols established by the COVID-19 Prevention Network. Individual-level data from participants randomized to receive placebo within each trial were combined and analyzed. Enrollment began July 2020 and the last data cutoff was in July 2021. Participants included adults in stable health, at risk for SARS-CoV-2, and assigned to the placebo group within each vaccine trial. Data were analyzed from April 2022 to February 2023.

Exposures

Comorbid conditions, demographic factors, and SARS-CoV-2 exposure risk at the time of enrollment.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Coprimary outcomes were COVID-19 and severe COVID-19. Multivariate Cox proportional regression models estimated adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) and 95% CIs for baseline covariates, accounting for trial, region, and calendar time. Secondary outcomes included severe COVID-19 among people with COVID-19, subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infection, and SARS-CoV-2 infection.

Results

A total of 57 692 participants (median [range] age, 51 [18-95] years; 11 720 participants [20.3%] aged ≥65 years; 31 058 participants [53.8%] assigned male at birth) were included. The analysis population included 3270 American Indian or Alaska Native participants (5.7%), 7849 Black or African American participants (13.6%), 17 678 Hispanic or Latino participants (30.6%), and 40 745 White participants (70.6%). Annualized incidence was 13.9% (95% CI, 13.3%-14.4%) for COVID-19 and 2.0% (95% CI, 1.8%-2.2%) for severe COVID-19. Factors associated with increased rates of COVID-19 included workplace exposure (high vs low: aHR, 1.35 [95% CI, 1.16-1.58]; medium vs low: aHR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.21-1.65]; P < .001) and living condition risk (very high vs low risk: aHR, 1.41 [95% CI, 1.21-1.66]; medium vs low risk: aHR, 1.19 [95% CI, 1.08-1.32]; P < .001). Factors associated with decreased rates of COVID-19 included previous SARS-CoV-2 infection (aHR, 0.13 [95% CI, 0.09-0.19]; P < .001), age 65 years or older (aHR vs age <65 years, 0.57 [95% CI, 0.50-0.64]; P < .001) and Black or African American race (aHR vs White race, 0.78 [95% CI, 0.67-0.91]; P = .002). Factors associated with increased rates of severe COVID-19 included race (American Indian or Alaska Native vs White: aHR, 2.61 [95% CI, 1.85-3.69]; multiracial vs White: aHR, 2.19 [95% CI, 1.50-3.20]; P < .001), diabetes (aHR, 1.54 [95% CI, 1.14-2.08]; P = .005) and at least 2 comorbidities (aHR vs none, 1.39 [95% CI, 1.09-1.76]; P = .008). In analyses restricted to participants who contracted COVID-19, increased severe COVID-19 rates were associated with age 65 years or older (aHR vs <65 years, 1.75 [95% CI, 1.32-2.31]; P < .001), race (American Indian or Alaska Native vs White: aHR, 1.98 [95% CI, 1.38-2.83]; Black or African American vs White: aHR, 1.49 [95% CI, 1.03-2.14]; multiracial: aHR, 1.81 [95% CI, 1.21-2.69]; overall P = .001), body mass index (aHR per 1-unit increase, 1.03 [95% CI, 1.01-1.04]; P = .001), and diabetes (aHR, 1.85 [95% CI, 1.37-2.49]; P < .001). Previous SARS-CoV-2 infection was associated with decreased severe COVID-19 rates (aHR, 0.04 [95% CI, 0.01-0.14]; P < .001).

Conclusions and Relevance

In this secondary cross-protocol analysis of 4 randomized clinical trials, exposure and demographic factors had the strongest associations with outcomes; results could inform mitigation strategies for SARS-CoV-2 and viruses with comparable epidemiological characteristics.

Socioeconomic and risk-related drivers of compliance with measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection: evidence from the Munich-based KoCo19 study

OBJECTIVES

Although a growing share of the population in many countries has been vaccinated against the SARS-CoV-2 virus to different degrees, social distancing and hygienic non-pharmaceutical interventions still play a substantial role in containing the pandemic. The goal of this study was to investigate which factors are correlated with a higher compliance with these regulations in the context of a cohort study in the city of Munich, southern Germany, during the summer of 2020, i.e. after the first lockdown phase.

METHODS

Using self-reported compliance with six regulations and personal hygiene rules (washing hands, avoiding touching face, wearing a mask, keeping distance, avoiding social gatherings, avoiding public spaces) we extracted two compliance factor scores, namely compliance with personal hygiene measures and compliance with social distancing regulations. Using linear and logistic regressions, we estimated the correlation of several socio-demographic and risk perception variables with both compliance scores.

RESULTS

Risk aversion proved to be a consistent and significant driver of compliance across all compliance behaviors. Furthermore, being female, being retired and having a migration background were positively associated with compliance with personal hygiene regulations, whereas older age was related with a higher compliance with social distancing regulations. Generally, socioeconomic characteristics were not related with compliance, except for education, which was negatively related with compliance with personal hygiene measures.

CONCLUSIONS

Our results suggest that for a targeted approach to improve compliance with measures to prevent SARS-CoV-2 infection, special attention should be given to younger, male and risk-prone individuals.

Recruiting and retaining community-based participants in a COVID-19 longitudinal cohort and social networks study: lessons from Victoria, Australia

BACKGROUND

Longitudinal studies are critical to informing evolving responses to COVID-19 but can be hampered by attrition bias, which undermines their reliability for guiding policy and practice. We describe recruitment and retention in the Optimise Study, a longitudinal cohort and social networks study that aimed to inform public health and policy responses to COVID-19.

METHODS

Optimise recruited adults residing in Victoria, Australia September 01 2020-September 30 2021. High-frequency follow-up data collection included nominating social networks for study participation and completing a follow-up survey and four follow-up diaries each month, plus additional surveys if they tested positive for COVID-19 or were a close contact. This study compared number recruited to a-priori targets as of September 302,021, retention as of December 31 2021, comparing participants retained and not retained, and follow-up survey and diary completion October 2020-December 2021. Retained participants completed a follow-up survey or diary in each of the final three-months of their follow-up time. Attrition was defined by the number of participants not retained, divided by the number who completed a baseline survey by September 302,021. Survey completion was calculated as the proportion of follow-up surveys or diaries sent to participants that were completed between October 2020-December 2021.

RESULTS

At September 302,021, 663 participants were recruited and at December 312,021, 563 were retained giving an overall attrition of 15% (n = 100/663). Among the 563 retained, survey completion was 90% (n = 19,354/21,524) for follow-up diaries and 89% (n = 4936/5560) for monthly follow-up surveys. Compared to participants not retained, those retained were older (t-test, p <  0.001), and more likely to be female (χ2, p = 0.001), and tertiary educated (χ2, p = 0.018).

CONCLUSION

High levels of study retention and survey completion demonstrate a willingness to participate in a complex, longitudinal cohort study with high participant burden during a global pandemic. We believe comprehensive follow-up strategies, frequent dissemination of study findings to participants, and unique data collection systems have contributed to high levels of study retention.

Higher Infection Risk among Health Care Workers and Lower Risk among Smokers Persistent across SARS-CoV-2 Waves-Longitudinal Results from the Population-Based TiKoCo Seroprevalence Study

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was reported as substantially increased in medical personnel and decreased in smokers after the first wave in spring 2020, including in our population-based Tirschenreuth Study (TiKoCo). However, it is unclear whether these associations were limited to the early pandemic and whether the decrease in smokers was due to reduced infection or antibody response. We evaluated the association of occupation and smoking with period-specific seropositivity: for the first wave until July 2020 (baseline, BL), the low infection period in summer (follow-up 1, FU1, November 2020), and the second/third wave (FU2, April 2021). We measured binding antibodies directed to SARS-CoV-2 nucleoprotein (N), viral spike protein (S), and neutralizing antibodies at BL, FU1, and FU2. Previous infection, vaccination, smoking, and occupation were assessed by questionnaires. The 4181 participants (3513/3374 at FU1/FU2) included 6.5% medical personnel and 20.4% current smokers. At all three timepoints, new seropositivity was higher in medical personnel with ORs = 1.99 (95%-CI = 1.36-2.93), 1.41 (0.29-6.80), and 3.17 (1.92-5.24) at BL, FU1, and FU2, respectively, and nearly halved among current smokers with ORs = 0.47 (95%-CI = 0.33-0.66), 0.40 (0.09-1.81), and 0.56 (0.33-0.94). Current smokers compared to never-smokers had similar antibody levels after infection or vaccination and reduced odds of a positive SARS-CoV-2 result among tested. Our data suggest that decreased seroprevalence among smokers results from fewer infections rather than reduced antibody response. The persistently higher infection risk of medical staff across infection waves, despite improved means of protection over time, underscores the burden for health care personnel.

Enhanced Spike-specific, but attenuated Nucleocapsid-specific T cell responses upon SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough versus non-breakthrough infections

SARS-CoV-2 vaccine breakthrough infections frequently occurred even before the emergence of Omicron variants. Yet, relatively little is known about the impact of vaccination on SARS-CoV-2-specific T cell and antibody response dynamics upon breakthrough infection. We have therefore studied the dynamics of CD4 and CD8 T cells targeting the vaccine-encoded Spike and the non-encoded Nucleocapsid antigens during breakthrough infections (BTI, n=24) and in unvaccinated control infections (non-BTI, n=30). Subjects with vaccine breakthrough infection had significantly higher CD4 and CD8 T cell responses targeting the vaccine-encoded Spike during the first and third/fourth week after PCR diagnosis compared to non-vaccinated controls, respectively. In contrast, CD4 T cells targeting the non-vaccine encoded Nucleocapsid antigen were of significantly lower magnitude in BTI as compared to non-BTI. Hence, previous vaccination was linked to enhanced T cell responses targeting the vaccine-encoded Spike antigen, while responses against the non-vaccine encoded Nucleocapsid antigen were significantly attenuated.

Tobacco use and risk of COVID-19 infection in the Finnish general population

Empirical evidence, primarily based on hospital-based or voluntary samples, suggests that current smokers have a lower risk of COVID-19 infection than never smokers. In this study, we used nationally representative data to examine the association between tobacco use and the risk of having a confirmed COVID-19 case. We explored several forms of tobacco use, contributing to separate the role of nicotine from smoking. We used data from 44,199 participants from three pooled national health surveys in Finland (FinSote 2018-2020). The primary outcome was a confirmed COVID-19 case. We examined current smoking, moist smokeless tobacco (snus), e-cigarettes with and without nicotine and nicotine replacement therapy products. Current daily smokers had a relative risk of 1.12 of a confirmed COVID-19 case (95% CI 0.65; 1.94) in fully adjusted models compared with never smokers. Current snus use was associated with a 68% higher risk of a confirmed COVID-19 case (RR 1.68, 95% CI 1.02; 2.75) than never users. We did not find conclusive evidence of associations between e-cigarettes with and without nicotine and nicotine replacement therapy products and the risk of confirmed COVID-19 cases. Our findings suggest that nicotine might not have a protective role in the risk of COVID-19 as previously hypothesized.

Nationally representative results on SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence and testing in Germany at the end of 2020

Pre-vaccine SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence data from Germany are scarce outside hotspots, and socioeconomic disparities remained largely unexplored. The nationwide representative RKI-SOEP study (15,122 participants, 18-99 years, 54% women) investigated seroprevalence and testing in a supplementary wave of the Socio-Economic-Panel conducted predominantly in October-November 2020. Self-collected oral-nasal swabs were PCR-positive in 0.4% and Euroimmun anti-SARS-CoV-2-S1-IgG ELISA from dry-capillary-blood antibody-positive in 1.3% (95% CI 0.9-1.7%, population-weighted, corrected for sensitivity = 0.811, specificity = 0.997). Seroprevalence was 1.7% (95% CI 1.2-2.3%) when additionally correcting for antibody decay. Overall infection prevalence including self-reports was 2.1%. We estimate 45% (95% CI 21-60%) undetected cases and lower detection in socioeconomically deprived districts. Prior SARS-CoV-2 testing was reported by 18% from the lower educational group vs. 25% and 26% from the medium and high educational group (p < 0.001, global test over three categories). Symptom-triggered test frequency was similar across educational groups. Routine testing was more common in low-educated adults, whereas travel-related testing and testing after contact with infected persons was more common in highly educated groups. This countrywide very low pre-vaccine seroprevalence in Germany at the end of 2020 can serve to evaluate the containment strategy. Our findings on social disparities indicate improvement potential in pandemic planning for people in socially disadvantaged circumstances.

COVID-19 outcomes in hospitalized Parkinson's disease patients in two pandemic waves in 2020: a nationwide cross-sectional study from Germany

BACKGROUND

The individualized clinical and public health management of the COVID-19 pandemic have changed over time, including care of people with PD. The objective was to investigate whether in-hospital COVID-19 outcomes and hospital care utilization of people with PD differed between the first two pandemic waves (W) 2020 in Germany.

METHODS

We conducted a nationwide cross-sectional study of inpatients with confirmed COVID-19 and PD between March 1 and May 31 (W1), and October 1 and December 31 (W2), 2020 and 2019, using an administrative database. Outcomes were in-hospital mortality, ICU admission rate, change in hospital care utilization, demographical data, PD clinical characteristics, and selected comorbidities. Differences were assessed between waves, PD/non-PD groups, and years.

RESULTS

We identified 2600 PD COVID-19 inpatients in W2 who in total showed higher in-hospital mortality rates and lower ICU admission rates, compared to both W1 (n = 775) and W1/W2 non-PD COVID-19 inpatients (n = 144,355). Compared to W1, W2 inpatients were more long-term care-dependent, older, more of female sex, and had less advanced disease. During both waves, PD inpatients were older, more frequently male and long-term care-dependent, and showed more risk comorbidities than non-PD COVID-19 inpatients. Decreases in hospital care utilization were stronger than average for PD inpatients but relatively weaker during W2. Non-COVID-19 PD inpatients showed poorer in-hospital outcomes in 2020 than in 2019 with better outcomes during W2.

CONCLUSIONS

In-hospital COVID-19 outcomes and hospital care utilization of PD patients in Germany differed between the two pandemic waves in 2020 with increased in-hospital mortality for PD COVID-19. Overall hospital care utilization for PD was increased during W2.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

No trial registration or ethical approval was required because data were publicly available, anonymized, and complied with the German data protection regulations.

Time Trend in SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity, Surveillance Detection- and Infection Fatality Ratio until Spring 2021 in the Tirschenreuth County-Results from a Population-Based Longitudinal Study in Germany

Herein, we provide results from a prospective population-based longitudinal follow-up (FU) SARS-CoV-2 serosurveillance study in Tirschenreuth, the county which was hit hardest in Germany in spring 2020 and early 2021. Of 4203 individuals aged 14 years or older enrolled at baseline (BL, June 2020), 3546 participated at FU1 (November 2020) and 3391 at FU2 (April 2021). Key metrics comprising standardized seroprevalence, surveillance detection ratio (SDR), infection fatality ratio (IFR) and success of the vaccination campaign were derived using the Roche N- and S-Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 test together with a self-administered questionnaire. N-seropositivity at BL was 9.2% (1st wave). While we observed a low new seropositivity between BL and FU1 (0.9%), the combined 2nd and 3rd wave accounted for 6.1% new N-seropositives between FU1 and FU2 (ever seropositives at FU2: 15.4%). The SDR decreased from 5.4 (BL) to 1.1 (FU2) highlighting the success of massively increased testing in the population. The IFR based on a combination of serology and registration data resulted in 3.3% between November 2020 and April 2021 compared to 2.3% until June 2020. Although IFRs were consistently higher at FU2 compared to BL across age-groups, highest among individuals aged 70+ (18.3% versus 10.7%, respectively), observed differences were within statistical uncertainty bounds. While municipalities with senior care homes showed a higher IFR at BL (3.0% with senior care home vs. 0.7% w/o), this effect diminished at FU2 (3.4% vs. 2.9%). In April 2021 (FU2), vaccination rate in the elderly was high (>77.4%, age-group 80+).

SARS-CoV-2 Antibody Prevalence in Adult Patients with Short Bowel Syndrome - A German Multicenter Cross-Sectional Study

BACKGROUND

Not all patients suffer from a severe course of SARS-CoV-2 infection, demanding a definition of groups at risk. Short bowel syndrome (SBS) has been assumed to be a risk factor, due to the complexity of disease, the need for interdisciplinary care and frequent contact with caretakers. We aimed to establish data on the course of infection and prevalence of SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity in SBS patients in Germany.

METHODS

From January 2021 until January 2022 a total of 119 patients from three different tertiary care centers with SBS were included. All patients received an antibody test against the nucleocapsid (N) antigen and were asked to fill out a questionnaire, which included frequency of contact with medical personnel, risk behavior and worries.

RESULTS

67% of SBS patients received parenteral nutrition with a median of 6 days per week. The seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies was 7.6% (n=9). Seven patients with positive antibodies had COVID-19 with a mild course. None of the patients were hospitalized or needed further treatment. There was no difference in willingness to take risks in SARS-CoV-2 antibody positive and negative patients (p=0.61). Patients were predominantly worried about the economy (61%) and transmitting COVID-19 (52%), less frequent (26%) about receiving insufficient medical treatment.

CONCLUSION

These are the first clinical results concerning SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity and COVID-19 disease in patients with SBS. The seropositivity is comparable to national data, which we attribute to increased risk awareness and avoidance. Further studies are warranted to investigate effects of COVID-19 infection in SBS patients.

CLINICAL RELEVANCY STATEMENT

Patients with short bowel syndrome are proposed to be a group at high-risk for a severe course of COVID-19. This multicenter cross-sectional study analyzes the prevalence of antibodies against the nucleocapsid (N) antigen in patients with short bowel syndrome, their risk behavior and frequency of contact with medical personnel. The overall SARS-CoV-2 seropositivity in short bowel syndrome patient was comparable to national data, possibly attributed to increased risk awareness and avoidance. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

The impact of travelling on the COVID-19 infection cases in Germany

BACKGROUND

COVID-19 continues to disrupt social lives and the economy of many countries and challenges their healthcare capacities. Looking back at the situation in Germany in 2020, the number of cases increased exponentially in early March. Social restrictions were imposed by closing e.g. schools, shops, cafés and restaurants, as well as borders for travellers. This reaped success as the infection rate descended significantly in early April. In mid July, however, the numbers started to rise again. Of particular reasons was that from mid June onwards, the travel ban has widely been cancelled or at least loosened. We aim to measure the impact of travellers on the overall infection dynamics for the case of (relatively) few infectives and no vaccinations available. We also want to analyse under which conditions political travelling measures are relevant, in particular in comparison to local measures. By travel restrictions in our model we mean all possible measures that equally reduce the possibility of infected returnees to further spread the disease in Germany, e.g. travel bans, lockdown, post-arrival tests and quarantines.

METHODS

To analyse the impact of travellers, we present three variants of an susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered-deceased model to describe disease dynamics in Germany. Epidemiological parameters such as transmission rate, lethality, and detection rate of infected individuals are incorporated. We compare a model without inclusion of travellers and two models with a rate measuring the impact of travellers incorporating incidence data from the Johns Hopkins University. Parameter estimation was performed with the aid of the Monte-Carlo-based Metropolis algorithm. All models are compared in terms of validity and simplicity. Further, we perform sensitivity analyses of the model to observe on which of the model parameters show the largest influence the results. In particular, we compare local and international travelling measures and identify regions in which one of these shows larger relevance than the other.

RESULTS

In the comparison of the three models, both models with the traveller impact rate yield significantly better results than the model without this rate. The model including a piecewise constant travel impact rate yields the best results in the sense of maximal likelihood and minimal Bayesian Information Criterion. We synthesize from model simulations and analyses that travellers had a strong impact on the overall infection cases in the considered time interval. By a comparison of the reproductive ratios of the models under traveller/no-traveller scenarios, we found that higher traveller numbers likely induce higher transmission rates and infection cases even in the further course, which is one possible explanation to the start of the second wave in Germany as of autumn 2020. The sensitivity analyses show that the travelling parameter, among others, shows a larger impact on the results. We also found that the relevance of travel measures depends on the value of the transmission parameter: In domains with a lower transmission parameter, caused either by the current variant or local measures, it is found that handling the travel parameters is more relevant than those with lower value of the transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

We conclude that travellers is an important factor in controlling infection cases during pandemics. Depending on the current situation, travel restrictions can be part of a policy to reduce infection numbers, especially when case numbers and transmission rate are low. The results of the sensitivity analyses also show that travel measures are more effective when the local transmission is already reduced, so a combination of those two appears to be optimal. In any case, supervision of the influence of travellers should always be undertaken, as another pandemic or wave can happen in the upcoming years and vaccinations and basic hygiene rules alone might not be able to prevent further infection waves.

[Seroprevalence of SARS-CoV-2 among children and adolescents in Germany-an overview]

Hintergrund

SARS-CoV-2-Antikörperstudien ergänzen und erweitern die Erkenntnisse aus der Meldestatistik laborbestätigter COVID-19-Fälle um Informationen zu unentdeckten Fällen.

Ziel der Arbeit

Der vorliegende Beitrag fasst bisherige Ergebnisse zur SARS-CoV-2-Prävalenz aus seroepidemiologischen Studien in Deutschland zusammen, die sich auf Kinder und Jugendliche konzentrieren, und ergänzt die bereits vorliegende Übersicht zur Seroprävalenz bei Erwachsenen und speziell bei Blutspendenden in Deutschland.

Material und Methoden

Die Ergebnisse der Übersichtsarbeit beruhen auf einer fortlaufenden systematischen Recherche in Studienregistern, Literaturdatenbanken, von Preprint-Veröffentlichungen und Medienberichten seroepidemiologischer Studien in Deutschland sowie deren Ergebnissen.

Ergebnisse

Mit Stand 17.09.2021 sind uns 16 deutsche seroepidemiologische Studien, die sich auf Kinder und Jugendliche konzentrieren, bekannt geworden. Für 9 dieser Studien liegen Ergebnisse vor. Für fast alle untersuchten Settings lag die SARS-CoV-2-Seroprävalenz für Kinder im Kita- und Grundschulalter in der ersten COVID-19-Welle deutlich unter 1 % und für Jugendliche unter 2 %. Im Verlauf der Pandemie wurden höhere Seroprävalenzen von bis zu 8 % für Kinder im Grundschulalter ermittelt.

Diskussion

Ergebnisse von SARS-CoV-2-Antikörperstudien bei Kindern und Jugendlichen in Deutschland liegen bislang erst in geringem Umfang und basierend auf lokal-regionalen, nichtrepräsentativen Stichproben vor. In künftigen Studien gilt es, einerseits abzuschätzen, welcher Anteil der Kinder und Jugendlichen bereits eine Infektion hatte oder geimpft ist. Zum anderen gilt es, die Verbreitung körperlicher und psychischer Beeinträchtigungen im Nachgang einer Infektion zu untersuchen.

Community SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence before and after the second wave of SARS-CoV-2 infection in Harare, Zimbabwe

BACKGROUND

By the end of July 2021 Zimbabwe, has reported over 100,000 SARS-CoV-2 infections. The true number of SARS-CoV-2 infections is likely to be much higher. We conducted a seroprevalence survey to estimate the prevalence of past SARS-CoV-2 in three high-density communities in Harare, Zimbabwe before and after the second wave of SARS-CoV-2.

METHODS

Between November 2020 and April 2021 we conducted a cross-sectional study of randomly selected households in three high-density communities (Budiriro, Highfield and Mbare) in Harare. Consenting participants answered a questionnaire and a dried blood spot sample was taken. Samples were tested for anti-SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid antibodies using the Roche e801 platform.

FINDINGS

A total of 2340 individuals participated in the study. SARS-CoV-2 antibody results were available for 70·1% (620/885) and 73·1% (1530/2093) of eligible participants in 2020 and 2021. The median age was 22 (IQR 10-37) years and 978 (45·5%) were men. SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was 19·0% (95% CI 15·1-23·5%) in 2020 and 53·0% (95% CI 49·6-56·4) in 2021. The prevalence ratio was 2·47 (95% CI 1·94-3·15) comparing 2020 with 2021 after adjusting for age, sex, and community. Almost half of all participants who tested positive reported no symptoms in the preceding six months.

INTERPRETATION

Following the second wave, one in two people had been infected with SARS-CoV-2 suggesting high levels of community transmission. Our results suggest that 184,800 (172,900-196,700) SARS-CoV-2 infections occurred in these three communities alone, greatly exceeding the reported number of cases for the whole city. Further seroprevalence surveys are needed to understand transmission during the current third wave despite high prevalence of past infections.

FUNDING

GCRF, Government of Canada, Wellcome Trust, Bavarian State Ministry of Sciences, Research, and the Arts.