The Level of Agreement between Self-Assessments and Examiner Assessments of Melanocytic Nevus Counts: Findings from an Evaluation of 4548 Double Assessments

Cutaneous melanoma (CM) is a candidate for screening programs because its prognosis is excellent when diagnosed at an early disease stage. Targeted screening of those at high risk for developing CM, a cost-effective alternative to population-wide screening, requires valid procedures to identify the high-risk group. Self-assessment of the number of nevi has been suggested as a component of such procedures, but its validity has not yet been established. We analyzed the level of agreement between self-assessments and examiner assessments of the number of melanocytic nevi in the area between the wrist and the shoulder of both arms based on 4548 study subjects in whom mutually blinded double counting of nevi was performed. Nevus counting followed the IARC protocol. Study subjects received written instructions, photographs, a mirror, and a "nevometer" to support self-assessment of nevi larger than 2 mm. Nevus counts were categorized based on the quintiles of the distribution into five levels, defining a nevus score. Cohen's weighted kappa coefficient (κ) was estimated to measure the level of agreement. In the total sample, the agreement between self-assessments and examiner assessments was moderate (weighted κ = 0.596). Self-assessed nevus counts were higher than those determined by trained examiners (mean difference: 3.33 nevi). The level of agreement was independent of sociodemographic and cutaneous factors; however, participants' eye color had a significant impact on the level of agreement. Our findings show that even with comprehensive guidance, only a moderate level of agreement between self-assessed and examiner-assessed nevus counts can be achieved. Self-assessed nevus information does not appear to be reliable enough to be used in individual risk assessment to target screening activities.

Clinical and immunological benefits of full primary COVID-19 vaccination in individuals with SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections: A prospective cohort study in non-hospitalized adults

BACKGROUND

SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOC) may result in breakthrough infections (BTIs) in vaccinated individuals. The aim of this study was to investigate the effects of full primary (two-dose) COVID-19 vaccination with wild-type-based SARS-CoV-2 vaccines on symptoms and immunogenicity of SARS-CoV-2 VOC BTIs.

METHODS

In a longitudinal multicenter controlled cohort study in Bavaria, Germany, COVID-19 vaccinated and unvaccinated non-hospitalized individuals were prospectively enrolled within 14 days of a PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. Individuals were visited weekly up to 4 times, performing a structured record of medical data and viral load assessment. SARS-CoV-2-specific antibody response was characterized by anti-spike-(S)- and anti-nucleocapsid-(N)-antibody concentrations, anti-S-IgG avidity and neutralization capacity.

RESULTS

A total of 300 individuals (212 BTIs, 88 non-BTIs) were included with VOC Alpha or Delta SARS-CoV-2 infections. Full primary COVID-19 vaccination provided a significant effectiveness against five symptoms (relative risk reduction): fever (33 %), cough (21 %), dysgeusia (22 %), dizziness (52 %) and nausea/vomiting (48 %). Full primary vaccinated individuals showed significantly higher 50 % inhibitory concentration (IC50) values against the infecting VOC compared to unvaccinated individuals at week 1 (269 vs. 56, respectively), and weeks 5-7 (1,917 vs. 932, respectively) with significantly higher relative anti-S-IgG avidity (78% vs. 27 % at week 4, respectively).

CONCLUSIONS

Full primary COVID-19 vaccination reduced symptom frequencies in non-hospitalized individuals with BTIs and elicited a more rapid and longer lasting neutralization capacity against the infecting VOC compared to unvaccinated individuals. These results support the recommendation to offer at least full primary vaccination to all adults to reduce disease severity caused by immune escape-variants.

Population-based study of the durability of humoral immunity after SARS-CoV-2 infection

SARS-CoV-2 antibody quantity and quality are key markers of humoral immunity. However, there is substantial uncertainty about their durability. We investigated levels and temporal change of SARS-CoV-2 antibody quantity and quality. We analyzed sera (8 binding, 4 avidity assays for spike-(S-)protein and nucleocapsid-(N-)protein; neutralization) from 211 seropositive unvaccinated participants, from the population-based longitudinal TiKoCo study, at three time points within one year after infection with the ancestral SARS-CoV-2 virus. We found a significant decline of neutralization titers and binding antibody levels in most assays (linear mixed regression model, p<0.01). S-specific serum avidity increased markedly over time, in contrast to N-specific. Binding antibody levels were higher in older versus younger participants - a difference that disappeared for the asymptomatic-infected. We found stronger antibody decline in men versus women and lower binding and avidity levels in current versus never-smokers. Our comprehensive longitudinal analyses across 13 antibody assays suggest decreased neutralization-based protection and prolonged affinity maturation within one year after infection.

Global Tanning Bed Advertising: A Comparison of Legal Regulations on Three Continents

Artificial ultraviolet radiation from tanning beds has been classified as carcinogenic by the International Agency for Research on Cancer in 2009. Several countries have subsequently introduced comprehensive legislation regulating commercial indoor tanning. Specific aspects of these regulations address tanning bed advertising and information requirements for tanning bed customers, which have been previously neglected in international comparisons of indoor tanning regulations. We performed a systematic search regarding legislation on these aspects in 131 legislative units across three continents (North America, Australia/New Zealand, Europe). The legal restrictions found varied widely in type and content. In 49 legislative units we identified total (n = 8) or partial legal bans (n = 41) on advertising for indoor tanning, while 64 legislative units enacted 5regulations that necessitate the dissemination of different types of specific health information to tanning bed customers. Nearly 40% of the legislative units of the study region lacked any legislation on these issues altogether. The heterogenous results emphasize the need for an international dialogue between health authorities and governments to harmonize the regulatory framework for tanning bed advertising and information requirements to a level better protecting the public from skin cancer. Our comprehensive international comparison can serve as a starting point for such a harmonization process that may ultimately protect the public worldwide from misleading tanning bed advertising.

Contact allergy to ingredients of hair cosmetics in female hairdressers and female consumers-An update based on IVDK data 2013-2020

BACKGROUND

Hair cosmetic products contain several, partly potent contact allergens, including excipients like preservatives. Hand dermatitis in hairdressers is common, scalp and face dermatitis in clients or self-users (summarised here as 'consumers') may be severe.

OBJECTIVE

To compare frequencies of sensitization to hair cosmetic ingredients and other selected allergens between female patch tested patients working as hairdressers and consumers without professional background, respectively, who were tested for suspected allergic contact dermatitis to such products.

METHODS

Patch test and clinical data collected by the IVDK (https://www.ivdk.org) between 01/2013 and 12/2020 were descriptively analysed, focusing on age-adjusted sensitization prevalences in the two subgroups.

RESULTS

Amongst the 920 hairdressers (median age: 28 years, 84% hand dermatitis) and 2321 consumers (median age: 49 years, 71.8% head/face dermatitis), sensitization to p-phenylenediamine (age-standardised prevalence: 19.7% and 31.6%, respectively) and toluene-2,5-diamine (20 and 30.8%) were most common. Contact allergy to other oxidative hair dye ingredients was also more commonly diagnosed in consumers, whereas ammonium persulphate (14.4% vs. 2.3%) and glyceryl thioglycolate (3.9 vs. 1.2%) as well as most notably methylisothiazolinone (10.5% vs. 3.1%) were more frequent allergens in hairdressers.

CONCLUSIONS

Hair dyes were the most frequent sensitizers both in hairdressers and in consumers; however, as indication for patch testing may differ, prevalences cannot directly be compared. The importance of hair dye allergy is evident, often with marked coupled reactivity. Workplace and product safety need to be further improved.

Aetiology of occupational hand eczema in hairdressers: Tackling the complexity of exposure combinations to identify patterns associated with increased risk of hand eczema

INTRODUCTION

Hairdressers are exposed to wet work and manifold allergens at work, rendering exposure complex and the aetiology of occupational hand eczema (OHE) often multifactorial in this occupational group.

OBJECTIVES

To identify exposure patterns associated with increased risk of hand eczema in hairdressers.

METHODS

All hairdressers graduating from 2004 to 2007 and 2015 to 2018 received a questionnaire in 2009 and 2020, respectively. Current exposures (with or without regular glove use) and OHE were self-reported, and their association examined. Patterns of exposure were identified by latent class analysis (LCA).

RESULTS

A total response of 39.9% (668/1675) was obtained. Six exposure profiles (#1-6) were identified by LCA across 11 tasks performed with or without gloves as well as deep conditioning, that is, 23 task items. Compared to profile #1 with the lowest OHE risk (reference) an increased risk of current OHE were seen in profile #4 [adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 6.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.5-44.8 and #6 (aOR 39.4, 95%CI 6.1-362.8)] in logistic regression analysis. Profile #1 and #6 had performed the same tasks, but in profile #6 regular glove use was performed in 9.1% (1/ 11) of tasks compared to 72.7% (8/11) of tasks in profile #1 (p = 0.002).

CONCLUSION

Although occupational exposures in hairdressing are complex, meaningful patterns associated with a wide range of OHE risk can be identified by LCA. The increase of OHE risk seems predominantly to be due to poor compliance with protective gloves. LCA could be applied to further fields of complex (skin) exposures.

Inter-Rater Agreement in Assessing Risk of Bias in Melanoma Prediction Studies Using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST): Results from a Controlled Experiment on the Effect of Specific Rater Training

Assessing the risk of bias (ROB) of studies is an important part of the conduct of systematic reviews and meta-analyses in clinical medicine. Among the many existing ROB tools, the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool (PROBAST) is a rather new instrument specifically designed to assess the ROB of prediction studies. In our study we analyzed the inter-rater reliability (IRR) of PROBAST and the effect of specialized training on the IRR. Six raters independently assessed the risk of bias (ROB) of all melanoma risk prediction studies published until 2021 (n = 42) using the PROBAST instrument. The raters evaluated the ROB of the first 20 studies without any guidance other than the published PROBAST literature. The remaining 22 studies were assessed after receiving customized training and guidance. Gwet's AC₁ was used as the primary measure to quantify the pairwise and multi-rater IRR. Depending on the PROBAST domain, results before training showed a slight to moderate IRR (multi-rater AC₁ ranging from 0.071 to 0.535). After training, the multi-rater AC₁ ranged from 0.294 to 0.780 with a significant improvement for the overall ROB rating and two of the four domains. The largest net gain was achieved in the overall ROB rating (difference in multi-rater AC₁: 0.405, 95%-CI 0.149-0.630). In conclusion, without targeted guidance, the IRR of PROBAST is low, questioning its use as an appropriate ROB instrument for prediction studies. Intensive training and guidance manuals with context-specific decision rules are needed to correctly apply and interpret the PROBAST instrument and to ensure consistency of ROB ratings.

Higher Infection Risk among Health Care Workers and Lower Risk among Smokers Persistent across SARS-CoV-2 Waves-Longitudinal Results from the Population-Based TiKoCo Seroprevalence Study

SARS-CoV-2 seroprevalence was reported as substantially increased in medical personnel and decreased in smokers after the first wave in spring 2020, including in our population-based Tirschenreuth Study (TiKoCo). However, it is unclear whether these associations were limited to the early pandemic and whether the decrease in smokers was due to reduced infection or antibody response. We evaluated the association of occupation and smoking with period-specific seropositivity: for the first wave until July 2020 (baseline, BL), the low infection period in summer (follow-up 1, FU1, November 2020), and the second/third wave (FU2, April 2021). We measured binding antibodies directed to SARS-CoV-2 nucleoprotein (N), viral spike protein (S), and neutralizing antibodies at BL, FU1, and FU2. Previous infection, vaccination, smoking, and occupation were assessed by questionnaires. The 4181 participants (3513/3374 at FU1/FU2) included 6.5% medical personnel and 20.4% current smokers. At all three timepoints, new seropositivity was higher in medical personnel with ORs = 1.99 (95%-CI = 1.36-2.93), 1.41 (0.29-6.80), and 3.17 (1.92-5.24) at BL, FU1, and FU2, respectively, and nearly halved among current smokers with ORs = 0.47 (95%-CI = 0.33-0.66), 0.40 (0.09-1.81), and 0.56 (0.33-0.94). Current smokers compared to never-smokers had similar antibody levels after infection or vaccination and reduced odds of a positive SARS-CoV-2 result among tested. Our data suggest that decreased seroprevalence among smokers results from fewer infections rather than reduced antibody response. The persistently higher infection risk of medical staff across infection waves, despite improved means of protection over time, underscores the burden for health care personnel.

A nationwide skin protection program introduced in hairdressing vocational schools was followed by a decreased risk of occupational hand eczema

BACKGROUND

Compliance with glove use and safe work practices are important factors in primary prevention of occupational hand eczema (OHE) in hairdressers.

OBJECTIVE

To assess the risk OHE and compliance with skin protective measures in hairdressers trained before and after implementation of a nationwide skin protection program in Danish hairdressing vocational schools in 2011.

METHODS

A repeated cross-sectional study was performed. A questionnaire was sent in 2009 and 2020. The Danish Labour Market Supplementary Pension Scheme provided information on yearly payments from the hairdressing profession.

RESULTS

A response rate of 66.6% (305/460) was obtained in the 2009 survey and of 29.9% (363/1215) in the 2020 survey. The career time prevalence of OHE decreased from 42.8% to 29.0% (adjusted odds ratio 0.55 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.40-0.77) and the incidence rate of OHE decreased from 57.5 (95%CI 48.4-68.4) to 42.0 (95%CI 34.6-50.9) per 1000 person years (incidence rate ratio 0.73 (95%CI 0.56-0.95) between the two surveys. A statistically significant (P<0.05) increase in glove use when doing wet-work and when handling hair dyes, permanent wave solutions and bleaching products was observed in the 2020 compared to the 2009 survey.

CONCLUSION

Our data suggest that skin protection training during apprenticeship reduces the risk of OHE in hairdressers. The lack of primary prevention of OHE in hairdressing vocational schools may be a missed opportunity in the prevention of the disease. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

Time Trend in SARS-CoV-2 Seropositivity, Surveillance Detection- and Infection Fatality Ratio until Spring 2021 in the Tirschenreuth County-Results from a Population-Based Longitudinal Study in Germany

Herein, we provide results from a prospective population-based longitudinal follow-up (FU) SARS-CoV-2 serosurveillance study in Tirschenreuth, the county which was hit hardest in Germany in spring 2020 and early 2021. Of 4203 individuals aged 14 years or older enrolled at baseline (BL, June 2020), 3546 participated at FU1 (November 2020) and 3391 at FU2 (April 2021). Key metrics comprising standardized seroprevalence, surveillance detection ratio (SDR), infection fatality ratio (IFR) and success of the vaccination campaign were derived using the Roche N- and S-Elecsys anti-SARS-CoV-2 test together with a self-administered questionnaire. N-seropositivity at BL was 9.2% (1st wave). While we observed a low new seropositivity between BL and FU1 (0.9%), the combined 2nd and 3rd wave accounted for 6.1% new N-seropositives between FU1 and FU2 (ever seropositives at FU2: 15.4%). The SDR decreased from 5.4 (BL) to 1.1 (FU2) highlighting the success of massively increased testing in the population. The IFR based on a combination of serology and registration data resulted in 3.3% between November 2020 and April 2021 compared to 2.3% until June 2020. Although IFRs were consistently higher at FU2 compared to BL across age-groups, highest among individuals aged 70+ (18.3% versus 10.7%, respectively), observed differences were within statistical uncertainty bounds. While municipalities with senior care homes showed a higher IFR at BL (3.0% with senior care home vs. 0.7% w/o), this effect diminished at FU2 (3.4% vs. 2.9%). In April 2021 (FU2), vaccination rate in the elderly was high (>77.4%, age-group 80+).

Tanning Bed Legislation for Minors: A Comprehensive International Comparison

Tanning beds have been classified as carcinogenic to humans. As a result, many countries have enacted laws regulating the use of commercial tanning beds, including bans for minors. However, there is no international overview of the current legal status of access restrictions for minors that provides details on their specific design regarding age limits and possible exceptions to the statutory regulation. Therefore, we performed a comprehensive web search of current tanning bed legislation for minors on the three continents North America, Australia, and Europe. Our findings regarding the existence and concrete design of access restrictions are presented graphically, using maps. We found a wide variety of different legislations. In Australia, a total ban on tanning beds exists, while in New Zealand, tanning bed use is banned for minors. In Europe, about half of the countries have implemented a strict ban for minors. In North America, we found differences in the age limit for access restrictions between the states, provinces, and territories for those regions that implemented a ban for minors. In the United States, some states have rather “soft bans” that allow use by minors with different types of parental consent. The patchwork in legislation calls for harmonization. Therefore, our comparison is an important starting point for institutions such as the World Health Organization or the European Commission to advance their goals toward a harmonization of tanning bed legislation in general and for minors in particular.

The Role of the Global Solar UV Index for Sun Protection of Children in German Kindergartens

More than twenty-five years ago, the Global Solar UV index (UVI) was introduced as a simple means of visualizing the intensity of ultraviolet radiation and to alert people to the need for sun protection. In our survey, among directors of 436 kindergartens in southern Germany we investigated the level of awareness and knowledge about the UVI as well as the practical consequences for sun protection in kindergartens. Less than half of the directors (n = 208, 47.7%) had ever heard of the UVI, and only a small minority of them (n = 34, 8.7%) used the daily UVI information to adapt sun protective measures in their kindergartens. Detailed knowledge about the UVI was a rarity among the respondents. The proportion of respondents with self-perceived detailed UVI knowledge was five times higher than the actual knowledge assessed by an in-depth structured interview using open-ended questions about the UVI (14.2% vs. 2.8%). No clear relationship between UVI awareness, knowledge, and use and directors' age and gender was found. The UVI-related variables also showed no association with directors' knowledge of risk factors for skin cancer and their attitudes towards tanned skin. Overall, the results paint a sobering picture regarding the penetration of the UVI into sun protection policies of German kindergartens. Future public health campaigns should aim to increase the awareness and understanding of the UVI as well as its relevance for sun protection of children.

Spectrum Bias and Individual Strengths of SARS-CoV-2 Serological Tests-A Population-Based Evaluation

Antibody testing for determining the SARS-CoV-2 serostatus was rapidly introduced in early 2020 and since then has been gaining special emphasis regarding correlates of protection. With limited access to representative samples with known SARS-CoV-2 infection status during the initial period of test development and validation, spectrum bias has to be considered when moving from a "test establishment setting" to population-based settings, in which antibody testing is currently implemented. To provide insights into the presence and magnitude of spectrum bias and to estimate performance measures of antibody testing in a population-based environment, we compared SARS-CoV-2 neutralization to a battery of serological tests and latent class analyses (LCA) in a subgroup (n = 856) of the larger population based TiKoCo-19 cohort (n = 4185). Regarding spectrum bias, we could proof notable differences in test sensitivities and specificities when moving to a population-based setting, with larger effects visible in earlier registered tests. While in the population-based setting the two Roche ELECSYS anti-SARS-CoV-2 tests outperformed every other test and even LCA regarding sensitivity and specificity in dichotomous testing, they didn't provide satisfying quantitative correlation with neutralization capacity. In contrast, our in-house anti SARS-CoV-2-Spike receptor binding domain (RBD) IgG-ELISA (enzyme-linked-immunosorbant assay) though inferior in dichotomous testing, provided satisfactory quantitative correlation and may thus represent a better correlate of protection. In summary, all tests, led by the two Roche tests, provided sufficient accuracy for dichotomous identification of neutralizing sera, with increasing spectrum bias visible in earlier registered tests, while the majority of tests, except the RBD-ELISA, didn't provide satisfactory quantitative correlations.

Sun Protection and Sunburn in Children Aged 1-10 Years in Germany: Prevalence and Determinants

Seeking shade, the use of textile sun protection and sunscreen, and protecting one’s eyes by wearing sunglasses are recommended sun protection measures in children. We aimed to quantify the use of these measures as well as the prevalence of sunburn in children aged 1 to 10 years in Germany and to identify their determinants. Data collected via telephone interviews in a nationwide sample of 554 parents or caregivers in family were analyzed. Use of sunscreen was the most common measure applied (77.8%), while sunglasses were least frequently used (12.5%). The prevalence of sunburn during the past year was 21.8%, and it was positively associated with children’s age. The use of sun protection measures was significantly associated with the age and skin color of the child, while characteristics and tanning behaviors of the caregivers only played a minor role. The use of sun protection measures was higher when caregivers perceived themselves as a role model (Odds Ratio (OR) = 4.33, p < 0.001). Our nationwide data show that there remains a need for the improved use of sun protection measures, especially in children aged 7 to 10 years. In educational material, parents should be encouraged to become positive role models for their children regarding sun protection.

Quality of Information for Skin Cancer Prevention: A Quantitative Evaluation of Internet Offerings

(1) Background: Different sources of information are used by the population regarding skin cancer prevention. The pertinent quality of information that can be retrieved via an internet search engine needs assessment; (2) Methods: Four topical searches in common language were entered into Google™. The first 200 "hits" were stored for further use. Eligible websites were evaluated using content-based criteria based on the current German medical guideline "Skin cancer prevention" and employing generic (DISCERN, HONcode) quality criteria. (3) Results: Overlap between the four search results was between 0 and 7 of 200. The completeness of relevant content was scored with a median of 10 points (first quartile (Q1):6; Q3:14) and thus, it was much lower than the theoretical maximum of 43 points. Global quality, with a maximum of 10 points, was 3 in median (Q1:2; Q3:4). Quality and completeness, respectively, were somewhat higher in the higher ranks of search results. The generic quality was moderate. (4) Conclusions: A direct comparison with other sources of information (print, audio-visual, presentation, or personal counselling) is not possible, but important deficits concerning the quality and scope of relevant information on the internet are demonstrated.

"I've Heard of It, Yes, but I Can't Remember What Exactly It Was"-A Qualitative Study on Awareness, Knowledge, and Use of the UV Index

Pharmacists and pharmaceutical technicians play an important role in counselling customers regarding sunscreen use and sun protection measures. A potentially helpful tool that can be used during counselling is the ultraviolet index (UVI), which informs individuals when and what sun protection measures are needed at a specific place and time. Our aim in this qualitative study was to explore awareness, knowledge, and use of the UVI during counselling in pharmacies. We used semi-structured interviews with pharmacists and pharmaceutical technicians (n = 20) to answer our research questions. Interviews were audiotaped, transcribed verbatim, and analyzed using qualitative content analysis. During the interviews pharmacists and pharmaceutical technicians revealed a lot of uncertainty and lack of knowledge regarding the UVI. Eight professionals were able to give a correct definition of UVI. Amongst others, the UVI was confused with sun protection factor. Overall, the UVI was hardly used during the counselling of customers. The UVI was developed to provide guidance when which type of sun protection is required to avoid detrimental effects of ultraviolet radiation. For effective implementation, both the general population and health professionals (e.g., pharmacists) have to increase their knowledge about the UVI. This would strengthen its use during professional counselling in pharmacies and may help to reduce the incidence of skin cancer over the long term.

[Effects of the Covid-19 Restrictions on Supermarket Visits in Germany]

Hintergrund  Die in Deutschland ab Mitte März verhängten Ausgangsbeschränkungen hinterließen in vielen Bereichen des öffentlichen Lebens deutliche Spuren. Während das Vermeiden sozialer Kontakte in vielen Bereichen durchaus möglich war, blieb die Versorgung mit Lebensmitteln der Verantwortung der privaten Haushalte überlassen.

Ziel der Arbeit  Die vorliegende Arbeit untersucht, ob und inwiefern die Beschränkungen zu Veränderungen hinsichtlich der Besuche von Supermärkten mit Personenkraftwagen geführt haben.

Material und Methoden  Zur Verfügung stehen Daten über die Parkbewegungen von 136 Parkplätzen von Supermärkten in Deutschland zwischen Anfang Februar und Ende Mai. Im Fokus der Analysen stehen Veränderungen der Gesamtzahl an Parkvorgängen pro Tag und Stellplatz sowie deren Dauer.

Ergebnisse  Mit Blick auf die Parkvorgänge zeigt sich eine deutliche Reduktion bis Ende April, unterbrochen durch einen temporären Anstieg um die Osterfeiertage. Nach Einführung der Maskenpflicht erholen sich die Werte wieder bis knapp unter das Vorniveau. Die Parkdauer verändert sich nur vergleichsweise wenig. Sie sinkt mit den Beschränkungen, steigt jedoch später leicht über das Niveau vor den Beschränkungen. Mittelfristig ist eine leichte Reduzierung der Parkvorgänge und eine Verlängerung ihrer Dauer um jeweils gut 5% zu beobachten.

Schlussfolgerung  Trotz ausdrücklicher Ausnahme der Einkäufe von Lebensmitteln von den Ausgangsbeschränkungen zeigt sich auch in diesem Bereich ein dynamisches Anpassungsverhalten der Bevölkerung an die sich verändernden Gegebenheiten. Ein dauerhafter Effekt auf die Einkaufsgewohnheiten scheint gemessen an den Parkbewegungen unwahrscheinlich.

Risk Prediction Models for Melanoma: A Systematic Review on the Heterogeneity in Model Development and Validation

The rising incidence of cutaneous melanoma over the past few decades has prompted substantial efforts to develop risk prediction models identifying people at high risk of developing melanoma to facilitate targeted screening programs. We review these models, regarding study characteristics, differences in risk factor selection and assessment, evaluation, and validation methods. Our systematic literature search revealed 40 studies comprising 46 different risk prediction models eligible for the review. Altogether, 35 different risk factors were part of the models with nevi being the most common one (n = 35, 78%); little consistency in other risk factors was observed. Results of an internal validation were reported for less than half of the studies (n = 18, 45%), and only 6 performed external validation. In terms of model performance, 29 studies assessed the discriminative ability of their models; other performance measures, e.g., regarding calibration or clinical usefulness, were rarely reported. Due to the substantial heterogeneity in risk factor selection and assessment as well as methodologic aspects of model development, direct comparisons between models are hardly possible. Uniform methodologic standards for the development and validation of risk prediction models for melanoma and reporting standards for the accompanying publications are necessary and need to be obligatory for that reason.

Effects of a Texture-Modified, Enriched, and Reshaped Diet on Dietary Intake and Body Weight of Nursing Home Residents with Chewing and/or Swallowing Problems: An Enable Study

This proof-of-concept study investigated the effects of an innovative nutrition concept, comprising texture modification, enrichment, and reshaping, on dietary intake and nutritional status of 16 nursing home residents with chewing and/or swallowing problems (mean age 86.5 ± 7.4 years) in a pre-test post-test design. During 6 weeks with usual texture-modified diet (P1) energy and protein intake were constant. After the implementation of the innovative diet, daily energy intake increased by 204.2 (median) [interquartile range 95.8-444.4] kcal (P = 0.011), and protein intake by 18.3 [9.9-26.3] g (P < 0.001) and remained constant during the following 6 weeks (P2). Body weight decreased during P1 (-0.5 [-1.4 to 0.2] kg), and increased during P2 (+1.1 [0.0 to 1.7] kg, P = 0.004). The present nutrition concept turned out to be a promising strategy for nutritional management of chewing and/or swallowing problems, however, the effects need to be confirmed in larger studies.

The extent of public awareness, understanding and use of the Global Solar UV index as a worldwide health promotion instrument to improve sun protection: protocol for a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

(Over)exposure to ultraviolet radiation is a major risk factor for skin cancer. The Global Solar Ultraviolet Index (UVI) was introduced by the WHO and partner organisations in 1995 as a simple measure of the intensity of solar UV radiation, providing guidance for the population to use appropriate sun protective measures. Little is known about the impact of the UVI on actual sun protection behaviour. Our systematic review aims to assess global levels of awareness, understanding and use of the UVI as prerequisites for the preventive effectiveness of this public health tool.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Systematic searches will be performed in 10 electronic literature databases including Medline, Scopus and Web of Science-Core Collection, two clinical trials registries and at least two grey literature databases (OpenGrey, Bielefeld Academic Search Engine). Additional literature sources will be retrieved using hand search of reference lists of included studies and snowballing methods. We will include studies with all types of quantitative study designs and participants reporting on at least one outcome in the three main categories (i) awareness, (ii) understanding and (iii) use of the UVI. We will assess the risk of bias within studies with an abbreviated version of the AXIS tool, designed specifically for cross-sectional studies. As we expect large heterogeneity in outcomes, we will conduct a narrative synthesis of results instead of a meta-analysis.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethical approval and patient consent are not required as this is a systematic review based on published studies. The results of this study will be published in an international peer-reviewed journal.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42018093693.

The betaboost package-a software tool for modelling bounded outcome variables in potentially high-dimensional epidemiological data

Motivation

To provide an integrated software environment for model fitting and variable selection in regression models with a bounded outcome variable.

Implementation

The proposed modelling framework is implemented in the add-on package betaboost of the statistical software environment R.

General features

The betaboost methodology is based on beta-regression, which is a state-of-the-art method for modelling bounded outcome variables. By combining traditional model fitting techniques with recent advances in statistical learning and distributional regression, betaboost allows users to carry out data-driven variable and/or confounder selection in potentially high-dimensional epidemiological data. The software package implements a flexible routine to incorporate linear and non-linear predictor effects in both the mean and the precision parameter (relating inversely to the variance) of a beta-regression model.

Availability

The software is hosted publicly at [http://github.com/boost-R/betaboost] and has been published under General Public License (GPL) version 3 or newer.

Erythemal UV Radiation on Days with Low UV Index Values-an Analysis of Data from the German Solar UV Monitoring Network over a Ten-year Period

According to the World Health Organization and partner organizations, no protection against ultraviolet (UV) radiation is required on days with "low" values (i.e., values <3) of the Global Solar Ultraviolet Index (UVI). Erythemal irradiance (E_er ) data of such days were analyzed to evaluate this claim. Measurements from 9 stations of the German solar UV monitoring network from 2007 to 2016 yielded 14,431 daily E_er time series of low UVI days. Erythemal doses for certain fixed time intervals-acquired from measurements on horizontal planes-were compared with the average minimal erythemal dose (MED) of skin phototype II. Doses from days with rounded UVI values of 0 were insufficient to induce erythema and even on days with rounded UVI values of 1 doses exceeding 1 MED of skin type II could only be acquired under very specific circumstances of prolonged exposure. Conversely, sun exposure on days with rounded UVI values of 2 can indeed provide doses sufficient to induce erythema in skin type II after two hours around noon. In conclusion, our analyses do not support the claim of harmlessness currently associated with the entire low UVI exposure category in public guidance on interpretation of the UVI.

Soluble intercellular adhesion molecule-1 is a prognostic marker in colorectal carcinoma

PURPOSE

Serological tumor markers are routinely used to monitor tumor onset and progression. In colorectal carcinoma (CRC), the carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) is roughly elevated in 50% of patients at initial diagnosis. Soluble ICAM-1 (sICAM-1) is elevated in different cancers. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic relevance of sICAM-1 combined with CEA in patients with CRC.

METHODS

In blood samples of 297 CRC patients, sICAM-1 was determined by ELISA and CEA by microparticle enzyme immunoassay the day before oncologic resection. Separation in patients with sICAM-1^high and sICAM-1^low was performed by minimum p value approach; separation in CEA normal and elevated was performed according to the established diagnostic cutoff. Clinical data were obtained from the prospective collected data from the Erlangen Registry for Colorectal Carcinomas.

RESULTS

Cancer-related 5-year survival rate of patients with sICAM-1^low (< 290 ng/ml, n = 208) was significantly increased (83.4%) as compared to that of patients with sICAM-1^high (≥ 290 ng/ml, n = 89) (66.2%; p < 0.001). Patients with normal CEA concentrations (n = 199; 90.8%) showed a significantly (p < 0.001) improved cancer-related 5-year survival rate compared to patients with elevated CEA concentrations (n = 98; 52.1%). Moreover, high sICAM-1 was an independent risk factor (hazard ratio 1.6) in multivariate analysis. Of note, increased sICAM-1 levels, either within normal or within elevated CEA, allowed to identify high-risk subgroups, both for overall (p < 0.001) and cancer-related survival (p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

Application of a novel risk score combining CEA/sICAM-1 serum concentrations allows the identification of high-risk groups for poor survival in CRC patients.

[Knowledge and information sources of parents of 3‑ to 6‑year-old children concerning skin cancer risk factors]

BACKGROUND

The dissemination of knowledge on risk factors and preventive strategies is a core element of skin cancer prevention. However, little is known about the information channels utilised by the population for this purpose.

OBJECTIVES

Descriptive analysis of information sources used by parents of 3‑ to 6‑year-old children as a particularly relevant target group and analysis of association patterns between socio-demographic factors, types of information sources and acquired knowledge.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional study was performed using a self-administered questionnaire with an online option between October 2011 and February 2012 with 3129 families who had at least one child visiting a kindergarten in the county of Erlangen-Höchstadt, the city of Erlangen or the city of Ansbach (Bavaria, Germany), with an 87.5% response rate on the level of kindergartens and 56.5% on the level of observational units (families).

RESULTS

There were few structural differences between study regions. The internet was used by only 13.3% of participants. A positive association was found between the use of multiple information sources and relevant knowledge and, partly, protective behaviour. A negative association was identified between the use of the internet and knowledge. In contrast, the use of print media or audio-visual or personal channels of information was positively associated with knowledge.

CONCLUSIONS

Preventive efforts should be increased that target parts of the population with lower formal education. The internet does not seem to play an important role and may even adversely affect knowledge, possibly due to unvalidated and misleading information.

How to Correct for Chance Agreement in the Estimation of Sensitivity and Specificity of Diagnostic Tests

The traditional concept of describing the validity of a diagnostic test neglects the presence of chance agreement between test result and true (disease) status. Sensitivity and specificity, as the fundamental measures of validity, can thus only be considered in conjunction with each other to provide an appropriate basis for the evaluation of the capacity of the test to discriminate truly diseased from truly undiseased subjects. In this paper, chance-corrected analogues of sensitivity and specificity are presented as supplemental measures of validity, which pay attention to the problem of chance agreement and offer the opportunity to be interpreted separately. While recent proposals of chance-correction techniques, suggested by several authors in this context, lead to measures which are dependent on disease prevalence, our method does not share this major disadvantage. We discuss the extension of the conventional ROC-curve approach to chance-corrected measures of sensitivity and specificity. Furthermore, point and asymptotic interval estimates of the parameters of interest are derived under different sampling frameworks for validation studies. The small sample behavior of the estimates is investigated in a simulation study, leading to a logarithmic modification of the interval estimate in order to hold the nominal confidence level for small samples.

Implications of Nondifferential Misclassification on Estimates of Attributable Risk

Objectives: Only the effects of isolated nondifferential misclassification of exposure or disease on the estimates of attributable risk have been discussed in the literature. The aim of this paper is to broaden the spectrum of scenarios for which implications of misclassification are available.

Methods: For this purpose, a matrix-based approach allowing a comprehensive, unified analysis of various structures of misclassification is introduced. The relative bias or – in the situation of covariate misclassification – the relative adjustment are presented for the different misclassification scenarios.

Results: Under nondifferential misclassification of exposure or disease, the attributable risk is biased towards the null with the only exception of perfect sensitivity of exposure classification or perfect specificity of disease classification both leading to an unbiased attributable risk. From these two marginal effects, the consequences of simultaneous nondifferential independent misclassification of exposure and disease on the attributable risk are derived in the matrix-based approach. Misclassification of a dichotomous covariate leads to partial adjustment.

Conclusions: To a large extent, the results for the attributable risk are in accordance with the well-known results for the relative risk. The algebraic differences between the two risk measures, however, make it necessary to repeat the methodological considerations for the attributable risk.

More Up-To-Date Monitoring of Long-Term Survival Rates by Cancer Registries: An Empirical Example

A few years ago, a new method of survival analysis, denoted period analysis, has been developed to derive more up-to-date estimates of long-term survival rates of cancer patients, but this method has rarely been applied so far. Using empirical examples from the Saarland Cancer Registry, we illustrate how seriously traditional long-term survival estimates may lag behind survival expectations of newly diagnosed cancer patients in the case of recent improvement in prognosis, and to what extent this problem may be reduced by period analysis of survival. We conclude that period analysis should be more widely used for deriving more up-to-date long-term survival estimates.

Association between Split Selection Instability and Predictive Error in Survival Trees

Objectives: To evaluate split selection instability in six survival tree algorithms and its relationship with predictive error by means of a bootstrap study.

Methods: We study the following algorithms: logrank statistic with multivariate p-value adjustment without pruning (LR), Kaplan-Meier distance of survival curves (KM), martingale residuals (MR), Poisson regression for censored data (PR), within-node impurity (WI), and exponential log-likelihood loss (XL). With the exception of LR, initial trees are pruned by using split-complexity, and final trees are selected by means of cross-validation. We employ a real dataset from a clinical study of patients with gallbladder stones. The predictive error is evaluated using the integrated Brier score for censored data. The relationship between split selection instability and predictive error is evaluated by means of box-percentile plots, covariate and cutpoint selection entropy, and cutpoint selection coefficients of variation, respectively, in the root node.

Results: We found a positive association between covariate selection instability and predictive error in the root node. LR yields the lowest predictive error, while KM and MR yield the highest predictive error.

Conclusions: The predictive error of survival trees is related to split selection instability. Based on the low predictive error of LR, we recommend the use of this algorithm for the construction of survival trees. Unpruned survival trees with multivariate p-value adjustment can perform equally well compared to pruned trees. The analysis of split selection instability can be used to communicate the results of tree-based analyses to clinicians and to support the application of survival trees.

Diagnosis of Glaucoma by Indirect Classifiers

Objectives: Demonstration of the applicability of a framework called indirect classification to the example of glaucoma classification. Indirect classification combines medical a priori knowledge and statistical classification methods. The method is compared to direct classification approaches with respect to the estimated misclassification error.

Methods: Indirect classification is applied using classification trees and the diagnosis of glaucoma. Misclassification errors are reduced by bootstrap aggregation. As direct classification methods linear discriminant analysis, classification trees and bootstrap aggregated classification trees are utilized in the problem of glaucoma diagnosis. Misclassification rates are estimated via 10-fold cross-validation.

Results: Indirect classification techniques reduce the misclassification error in the context of glaucoma classification compared to direct classification methods.

Conclusions: Embedding a priori knowledge into statistical classification techniques can improve misclassification results. Indirect classification offers a framework to realize this combination.

A Computer Program to Estimate Power and Relative Efficiency of Flexibly Matched Case-control Studies

Objectives: We recently introduced the concept of flexible matching strategies with varying proportions of a dichotomous matching factor among controls to increase power and efficiency of case-control studies. We now present a method and a computer program to calculate power and relative efficiency compared to an unmatched design varying the proportion of the matching factor in controls over all possible values from 0 to 100 percent.

Methods: For all these values, the program calculates the expected variance of the combined Mantel-Haenszel odds ratio and determines the power using the standard error of the expected combined Mantel-Haenszel odds ratio under the null hypothesis as derived from the Mantel-Haenszel test statistic without continuity correction.

Results: Thereby, the program allows estimating the optimal prevalence of the matching factor in selected controls for a given scenario which often differs from the prevalence in cases. It furthermore allows to estimate loss in power and efficiency compared to optimal matching by suboptimal matching.

Conclusions: Estimations like these are helpful with respect to the decision when to stop efforts to optimize the degree of matching during the recruitment of controls. Our program will strongly facilitate assessing the benefits of flexible matching strategies.

The Attributable Risk in a Multifactorial Situation

Objectives: Different approaches to partition the attributable risk into exposure-specific components are methodologically evaluated.

Methods: Two methods of partitioning the attributable risk in a multifactorial situation have been suggested. One is based on a solution adopted from game theory, the Shapley value, whereas the other recently suggested approach uses a heuristically motivated proportional weighting scheme. These two concepts are reviewed and compared in a situation with three exposure factors. A hypothetical numerical example is discussed illustrating differences in the case of complex interaction structures.

Results: The two methods are found to differ in two critical features that affect the outcome of partitioning: i) including or ignoring the full interaction structure between exposure factors involved in the partitioning, ii) using an equal or proportional weighting scheme for the marginal excess risks of the exposures. As a result, not only the individual partial attributable risks for the exposure factors may be quantitatively different between the methods, but also their ranking depends on the partitioning approach.

Conclusions: The epidemiologic properties of the partitioning procedure based on the Shapley value are known and fit to the needs of epidemiologic applications. The alternative approach recently suggested can lead to considerably different results. As long as its epidemiologic properties are not fully understood, the traditional partitioning method should be given preference in practical applications.

The Birth and Evolution of a Discipline Devoted to Information in Biomedicine and Health Care

Background: The journal Methods of Information in Medicine, founded in 1962, has now completed its 50th volume. Its publications during the last five decades reflect the formation of a discipline that deals with information in biomedicine and health care. Objectives: To report about 1) the journal‘s origin, 2) the individuals who have significantly contributed to it, 3) trends in the journal’s aims and scope, 4) influential papers and 5) major topics published in Methods over the years.

Methods: Methods included analysing the correspondence and journal issues in the archives of the editorial office and of the publisher, citation analysis using the ISI and Scopus databases, and analysing the articles’ Medical Subject Headings (MeSH) in MEDLINE.

Results: In the journal’s first 50 years 208 editorial board members and/or editors contributed to the journal’s development, with most individuals coming from Europe and North America. The median time of service was 11 years. At the time of analysis 2,456 articles had been indexed with Me SH. Topics included computerized systems of various types, informatics methodologies, and topics related to a specific medical domain. Some MeSH topic entries were heavily and regularly represented in each of the journal‘s five decades (e.g. information systems and medical records), while others were important in a particular decade, but not in other decades (e.g. punched-card systems and systems integration). Seven papers were cited more than 100 times and these also covered a broad range of themes such as knowledge representation, analysis of biomedical data and knowledge, clinical decision support and electronic patient records. Conclusions: Methods of Information in Medicine is the oldest international journal in biomedical informatics. The journal’s development over the last 50 years correlates with the formation of this new discipline. It has and continues to stress the basic methodology and scientific fundamentals of organizing, representing and analysing data, information and knowledge in biomedicine and health care. It has and continues to stimulate multi-disciplinary communication on research that is devoted to high-quality, efficient health care, to quality of life and to the progress of biomedicine and the health sciences.

Memorandum “Open Metadata”

At present, most documentation forms and item catalogs in healthcare are not accessible to the public. This applies to assessment forms of routine patient care as well as case report forms (CRFs) of clinical and epidemiological studies. On behalf of the German chairs for Medical Informatics, Biometry and Epidemiology six recommendations to developers and users of documentation forms in healthcare were developed. Open access to medical documentation forms could substantially improve information systems in health-care and medical research networks. Therefore these forms should be made available to the scientific community, their use should not be unduly restricted, they should be published in a sustainable way using international standards and sources of documentation forms should be referenced in scientific publications.

Extending Statistical Boosting

Background: Boosting algorithms to simultaneously estimate and select predictor effects in statistical models have gained substantial interest during the last decade.

Objectives: This review highlights recent methodological developments regarding boosting algorithms for statistical modelling especially focusing on topics relevant for biomedical research.

Methods: We suggest a unified framework for gradient boosting and likelihood-based boosting (statistical boosting) which have been addressed separately in the literature up to now.

Results: The methodological developments on statistical boosting during the last ten years can be grouped into three different lines of research: i) efforts to ensure variable selection leading to sparser models, ii) developments regarding different types of predictor effects and how to choose them, iii) approaches to extend the statistical boosting framework to new regression settings.

Conclusions: Statistical boosting algorithms have been adapted to carry out unbiased variable selection and automated model choice during the fitting process and can nowadays be applied in almost any regression setting in combination with a large amount of different types of predictor effects.

Pilot Assessment of the Angiosome Concept by Intra-operative Fluorescence Angiography After Tibial Bypass Surgery

OBJECTIVES

The "angiosome" concept as a model for decision making in revascularisation of patients with critical limb ischaemia (CLI) has been subject to lively discussion in recent years. The aim of this prospective pilot study was to use intra-operative fluorescence angiography to provide further data on the angiosome concept on the level of microcirculation after tibial bypass surgery.

DESIGN, MATERIALS, AND METHODS

This was a prospective analysis of 40 patients presenting with CLI Rutherford stage IV to VI before and after tibial bypass surgery. The macrocirculation was measured by the ankle brachial index. Skin microcirculation was assessed by intra-operative fluorescence angiography. The alteration of microcirculation was compared in direct and indirect revascularised angiosomes. Clinical follow-up investigations were performed and the wound healing rate was compared between the different revascularisation methods.

RESULTS

Cumulated microcirculation parameters showed a significant improvement after surgery (ingress, ingress rate p<.001). Likewise, general microcirculatory improvement was observed in each foot angiosome after revascularisation, regardless of the tibial artery revascularised. Furthermore, a comparison of the direct (DR) and the indirect revascularised (IR) angiosomes did not show a significant difference concerning the improvement of microcirculation (difference DR-IR, ingress: 1.69, 95% CI 71.73-75.11; ingress rate: 0.08, 95% CI -12.91 to 13.07). The wound healing rate was similar in both groups, although the time to wound healing was faster by on average 2.5 months in the DR group (p=.083).

CONCLUSION

Microcirculatory improvement was seen over the whole foot after tibial bypass. Therefore, fluorescence angiography is a promising tool to evaluate the angiosome concept in future larger studies. Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT03012750.

Methods Open – A New Journal Track Starting in 2017

From 2017 (volume 56) onwards the journal Methods of Information in Medicine will consist of two tracks. Authors can decide to submit their manuscript to either the subscription track that continues to publish its six print and electronic (non-open access) issues for journal subscribers, or the new Methods Open track that will consist of digitally published manuscripts (as gold open access). These two tracks will constitute from 2017 on the journal’s Tandem Model. Simultaneously, Methods will introduce a double-blinded review process and reviewer assessment by the submitting authors. Implications of these changes for both authors and reviewers are discussed. With these steps, Methods aims to improve the visibility of the journal and contribute to sharing research results as timely and as widely as possible and thereby to promote scientific progress.

An Update on Statistical Boosting in Biomedicine

Statistical boosting algorithms have triggered a lot of research during the last decade. They combine a powerful machine learning approach with classical statistical modelling, offering various practical advantages like automated variable selection and implicit regularization of effect estimates. They are extremely flexible, as the underlying base-learners (regression functions defining the type of effect for the explanatory variables) can be combined with any kind of loss function (target function to be optimized, defining the type of regression setting). In this review article, we highlight the most recent methodological developments on statistical boosting regarding variable selection, functional regression, and advanced time-to-event modelling. Additionally, we provide a short overview on relevant applications of statistical boosting in biomedicine.

Randomised phase-III-trial of concurrent chemoradiation (CRT) for locally advanced head and neck cancer (stage III-IVB): Comparing dose reduced radiotherapy (63,6 Gy) with paclitaxel/cisplatinum to standard radiotherapy (70,6 Gy) with fluorouracil/cisplatinum

6016

Background: Concurrent CRT with 70.6 Gy is the standard treatment for locally advanced head and neck cancer (LA-SCCHN). There exist no prospective data on safety and efficacy of a reduced radiation (RT) dose. Methods: Pts with stage III-IVB LA-SCCHN were randomized 1:1 to receive 70.6 Gy with concurrent cisplatinum (20mg/m²/d IV on days 1-5 and 29-33) and fluorouracil (600 mg/m²/d CIV on days 1-5 and 29-33) (standard arm A) versus 63,6 Gy with intensified chemotherapy using concurrent cisplatinum (20mg/m²/d IV on days 1-4 and 29-32) and paclitaxel (20mg/m²/d IV on days 2, 5, 8, 11 and 25, 30, 33, 36) (experimental arm B). After a planned interim analysis recruitment was stopped due to statistical reasons. Results: Between 06/2010 and 02/2015 a total of 221 pts were randomized with 105 pts receiving treatment in arm A and 112 in arm B (4 pts dropped out). Median follow-up was 38 months. Pts’ characteristics: Oral cavity (15%), oropharynx (54%), hypopharynx (28%), larynx (14%); 17 pts had more than one primary site; tumor stage: III (14%), IV (86%); HPV-status (p16) was positive in 20%, negative in 38%, currently pending in 42%. A total of 96 PFS-related events occurred. 3-year PFS (ITT) was 58% in the standard arm A and 48% in experimental arm B (p = 0.454). 3-year OS (ITT) was 64% in arm A and 59% in arm B (p = 0.688). 3-year rates of distant metastases, loco-regional recurrences and death were 10% vs 12%, 17% vs 21% and 15% vs 19% for pts in arm A and B, respectively. As for the p16-positive subgroup, 3-year PFS/OS were 77%/76% in arm A (n = 21) and 69%/80% in arm B (n = 22), respectively. Grade 3+ hematologic adverse events during therapy (arm A/arm B): Anemia 11%/4% (p = 0.038); neutropenia 40%/16% (p < 0.001); thrombocytopenia 8%/3% (p = 0.130). Conclusions: These preliminary results indicate that pts receiving concurrent CRT for LA-SCCHN did not benefit from a lower total RT dose of 63.6Gy despite intensified chemotherapy. However, in the subgroup of p16-positive pts a reduced RT dose may be sufficiently effective. Clinical trial information: NCT01126216.

Association between month of birth and melanoma risk: fact or fiction?

Background

Evidence on the effect of ultraviolet radiation (UVR) exposure in infancy on melanoma risk in later life is scarce. Three recent studies suggest that people born in spring carry a higher melanoma risk. Our study aimed at verifying whether such a seasonal pattern of melanoma risk actually exists.

Methods

Data from the population-based Cancer Registry Bavaria (CRB) on the birth months of 28 374 incident melanoma cases between 2002 and 2012 were analysed and compared with data from the Bavarian State Office for Statistics and Data Processing on the birth month distribution in the Bavarian population. Crude and adjusted analyses using negative binomial regression models were performed in the total study group and supplemented by several subgroup analyses.

Results

In the crude analysis, the birth months March-May were over-represented among melanoma cases. Negative binomial regression models adjusted only for sex and birth year revealed a seasonal association between melanoma risk and birth month with 13-21% higher relative incidence rates for March, April and May compared with the reference December. However, after additionally adjusting for the birth month distribution of the Bavarian population, these risk estimates decreased markedly and no association with the birth month was observed any more. Similar results emerged in all subgroup analyses.

Conclusions

Our large registry-based study provides no evidence that people born in spring carry a higher risk for developing melanoma in later life and thus lends no support to the hypothesis of higher UVR susceptibility during the first months of life.