Potential drivers of HIV acquisition in African-American women related to mass incarceration: an agent-based modelling study

"I'm Trusting You with My Body": A Qualitative Examination of the Role of Trust in Safer Sexual Decision-Making Among Black Women

Black women are disproportionately impacted by HIV, such that they are diagnosed at eight times the rate of White women and three times that of Latinas. Given that HIV transmission among Black women is primarily attributed to heterosexual sex, it is imperative to better understand factors that influence Black women's sexual health decision-making. Previous studies have highlighted the influence of trust on sexual decision-making; however, scant literature focuses on trust in the relationships of Black women, for whom it may differentially impact their sexual health. Nine focus groups were conducted to examine how trust affects sexual health decision-making among Black women who have sex with men (N = 56). Qualitative analyses revealed three themes that highlight how trust can influence sexual behavior: (1) Trust Buffers Risk of Physical and Emotional Harm; (2) Broken Trust Encourages Safer Sex Behavior; (3) Trust Dynamics Influence Sexual Communication Anxiety. This analysis expands on extant literature by identifying how differing forms of trust can be understood and leveraged in the context of HIV/STI prevention and sexual health for women engaging in heterosexual sex. Implications of the study indicate that concepts of trust should be addressed in interventions seeking to improve the sexual health of Black women.

A Review of Network Models for HIV Spread

BACKGROUND

HIV/AIDS has been a global health crisis for over 4 decades. Network models, which simulate human behavior and intervention impacts, have become an essential tool in guiding HIV prevention strategies and policies. However, no comprehensive survey of network models in HIV research has been conducted. This article fills that gap, offering a summary of past work and future directions to engage more researchers and inform policy related to eliminating HIV.

SETTING

Network models explicitly represent interactions between individuals, making them well-suited to study HIV transmission dynamics. Two primary modeling paradigms exist: a mechanistic approach from applied mathematics and a statistical approach from the social sciences. Each has distinct strengths and weaknesses, which should be understood for effective application to HIV research.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review of network models used in HIV research, detailing the model types, populations, interventions, behaviors, datasets, and software used, while identifying potential future research directions.

RESULTS

Network models are particularly valuable for studying behaviors central to HIV transmission, such as partner selection and treatment adherence. Unlike traditional models, they focus on individual behaviors, aligning them with clinical practice. However, more accurate network data are needed for better model calibration and actionable insights.

CONCLUSIONS

This article serves as a point of reference for HIV researchers interested in applying network models and understanding their limitations. To our knowledge, this is the most comprehensive review of HIV network models to date.

HIV and Hepatitis C Among People Who Inject Drugs in Memphis, Tennessee: an Intersectional Risk Environment Analysis of the Social Determinants of Health

BACKGROUND

The Southern US is confronting bourgeoning HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemics among people who inject drugs (PWID), yet little is known about shared and unique risk factors across the region. We applied an intersectional risk environment framework to understand infectious disease outcomes for sub-groups of PWID that experience multiple axes of social marginalization related to racial and ethnic identity and social and economic vulnerability.

METHODS

HIV and HCV prevalence was estimated from the first iteration of the CDC's National HIV Behavioral Surveillance respondent driven sample of PWID in Shelby County, Tennessee in 2018. We ran adjusted multinomial models to test main and interaction effects of race/ethnicity and structural factors on the prevalence of a three-level outcome: HIV-only, HCV-only, and no infection.

RESULTS

A total of 564 PWID participated, 558 (99%) completed HIV testing, and 540 (96%) HCV testing. Thirty (5%) were HIV-positive, 224 (40%) HCV-positive, and less than 1% were co-infected. Descriptive differences by race/ethnicity and levels of structural vulnerability for HIV and HCV subpopulations were present; however, there was no evidence for statistical interaction. In the final main effects model, HIV status was positively associated with non-Hispanic Black identity (aRR 4.95, 95% CI 1.19, 20.6), whereas HCV status was associated with non-white identity (aRR 0.11 95% CI 0.07, 0.18). Factors associated with HCV infection were higher scores of structural vulnerability (aRR 2.19 95% CI 1.10, 4.35), and criminal legal involvement (aOR 1.99 95% CI 1.18, 3.37).

CONCLUSION

This is the first study to implement local population-based survey data to evaluate distinctive intersections of ethnic/racial and social factors associated with HIV and HCV status among PWID in the Memphis region. Findings come at an opportune time as harm reduction programs are in development in the South and shed light to the need for socially equitable race conscious resource investment.

Agent based modelling of blood borne viruses: a scoping review

BACKGROUND

The models that historically have been used to model infectious disease outbreaks are equation-based and statistical models. However, these models do not capture the impact of individual and social factors that affect the spread of common blood-borne viruses (BBVs) such as human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), hepatitis C virus (HCV), and hepatitis B virus (HBV). Agent-based modelling (ABM) is an alternative modelling approach that is gaining popularity in public health and epidemiology. As the field expands, it is important to understand how ABMs have been applied. In this context, we completed a scoping review of research that has been done on the ABM of BBVs.

METHOD

The inclusion/exclusion criteria were drafted using the idea of Population, Concept, and Context (PCC). The Preferred Reporting Item for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analysis, an extension to scoping review (PRISMA-ScR), was employed in retrieving ABM literature that studied BBVs. Three databases (Scopus, Pubmed, and Embase) were systematically searched for article retrieval. 200 articles were retrieved from all the databases, with 10 duplicates. After removing the duplicates, 190 papers were screened for inclusion. After analysing the remaining articles, 70 were excluded during the abstract screening phase, and 32 were excluded during the full-text decision. Eighty-eight were retained for the scoping review analysis. To analyse this corpus of 88 papers, we developed a five-level taxonomy that categorised each paper based first on disease type, then transmission mechanism, then modelled population, then geographic location and finally, model outcome.

RESULTS

The result of this analysis show significant gaps in the ABM of BBV literature, particularly in the modeling of social and individual factors influencing BBV transmission.

CONCLUSION

There is a need for more comprehensive models that address various outcomes across different populations, transmission and intervention mechanisms. Although ABMs are a valuable tool for studying BBVs, further research is needed to address existing gaps and improve our understanding of individual and social factors that influence the spread and control of BBVs. This research can inform researchers, modellers, epidemiologists, and public health practitioners of the ABM research areas that need to be explored to reduce the burden of BBVs globally.

From conceptualising to modelling structural determinants and interventions in HIV transmission dynamics models: a scoping review and methodological framework for evidence-based analyses

BACKGROUND

Including structural determinants (e.g. criminalisation, stigma, inequitable gender norms) in dynamic HIV transmission models is important to help quantify their population-level impacts and guide implementation of effective interventions that reduce the burden of HIV and inequalities thereof. However, evidence-based modelling of structural determinants is challenging partly due to a limited understanding of their causal pathways and few empirical estimates of their effects on HIV acquisition and transmission.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review of dynamic HIV transmission modelling studies that evaluated the impacts of structural determinants, published up to August 28, 2023, using Ovid Embase and Medline online databases. We appraised studies on how models represented exposure to structural determinants and causal pathways. Building on this, we developed a new methodological framework and recommendations to support the incorporation of structural determinants in transmission dynamics models and their analyses. We discuss the data and analyses that could strengthen the evidence used to inform these models.

RESULTS

We identified 17 HIV modelling studies that represented structural determinants and/or interventions, including incarceration of people who inject drugs (number of studies [n] = 5), violence against women (n = 3), HIV stigma (n = 1), and housing instability (n = 1), among others (n = 7). Most studies (n = 10) modelled exposures dynamically. Almost half (8/17 studies) represented multiple exposure histories (e.g. current, recent, non-recent exposure). Structural determinants were often assumed to influence HIV indirectly by influencing mediators such as contact patterns, condom use, and antiretroviral therapy use. However, causal pathways' assumptions were sometimes simple, with few mediators explicitly represented in the model, and largely based on cross-sectional associations. Although most studies calibrated models using HIV epidemiological data, less than half (7/17) also fitted or cross-validated to data on the prevalence, frequency, or effects of exposure to structural determinants.

CONCLUSIONS

Mathematical models can play a crucial role in elucidating the population-level impacts of structural determinants and interventions on HIV. We recommend the next generation of models reflect exposure to structural determinants dynamically and mechanistically, and reproduce the key causal pathways, based on longitudinal evidence of links between structural determinants, mediators, and HIV. This would improve the validity and usefulness of predictions of the impacts of structural determinants and interventions.

Keeping it real: A descriptive analysis of HIV testing history, PrEP awareness, and PrEP use among Black cisgender women in Middle Tennessee, 2018

INTRODUCTION

HIV disproportionately affects Black/African American women in the United States, particularly in the southern states, including Tennessee. Despite this, limited research and intervention are targeting this population, especially regarding biomedical prevention technologies such as pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP). This study aims to describe the HIV testing history of a sample of Black women in middle Tennessee, assess their awareness and potential for adopting modern HIV prevention technologies like PrEP, and explore the dyadic and social factors that influence their HIV prevention awareness and use.

THEORY

The Precaution Adoption Process Model (PAPM) is employed to understand how individuals progress through decision-making stages when adopting new health behaviors, especially related to novel interventions.

METHODS

For survey development and deployment, this cross-sectional survey study engaged the Nashville Health Disparities Coalition and the Resident Association for the Metropolitan Developmental Housing Association in Nashville. Eligible participants included African American and Black women aged 18 and above. The survey collected demographic information, HIV testing history, reasons for testing or not testing, dyadic HIV risk factors, awareness, and use of rapid HIV testing and PrEP, and social norms related to these prevention technologies.

RESULTS AND DISCUSSION

Age significantly influenced HIV testing history, emphasizing the importance of regular screening, especially among older women. Dyadic factors such as concurrency and having a shared male partner were associated with differences in testing behavior. Awareness of both rapid HIV testing and PrEP was limited among participants, highlighting the need for increased education and awareness campaigns specifically highlighting benefits to Black women. Social norms, particularly recommendations from healthcare providers, played a crucial role in influencing women's willingness to adopt these prevention technologies. [Increasing routine HIV testing and awareness of PrEP, especially among women in non-monogamous relationships, is essential in reducing HIV disparities among Black women.] IMPLICATIONS: Healthcare providers play a crucial role in initiating and recommending HIV testing and PrEP among Black women, emphasizing the importance of patient-provider relationships and ongoing conversations about prevention strategies. This study underscores the importance of community-engaged research in addressing HIV disparities and highlights the potential for partnerships between medical centers and community organizations in the fight against HIV.

Considerations when prescribing opioid agonist therapies for people living with HIV

INTRODUCTION

Medications for opioid use disorder (MOUD) include opioid agonist therapies (OAT) (buprenorphine and methadone), and opioid antagonists (extended-release naltrexone). All forms of MOUD improve opioid use disorder (OUD) and HIV outcomes. However, the integration of services for HIV and OUD remains inadequate. Persistent barriers to accessing MOUD underscore the immediate necessity of addressing pharmacoequity in the treatment of OUD in persons with HIV (PWH).

AREAS COVERED

In this review article, we specifically focus on OAT among PWH, as it is the most commonly utilized form of MOUD. Specifically, we delineate the intersection of HIV and OUD services, emphasizing their integration into the United States Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) plan by offering comprehensive screening, testing, and treatment for both HIV and OUD. We identify potential drug interactions of OAT with antiretroviral therapy (ART), address disparities in OAT access, and present the practical benefits of long-acting formulations of buprenorphine, ART, and pre-exposure prophylaxis for improving HIV prevention and treatment and OUD management.

EXPERT OPINION

Optimizing OUD outcomes in PWH necessitates careful attention to diagnosing OUD, initiating OUD treatment, and ensuring medication retention. Innovative approaches to healthcare delivery, such as mobile pharmacies, can integrate both OUD and HIV and reach underserved populations.

Modelling HIV/AIDS epidemiological complexity: A scoping review of Agent-Based Models and their application

OBJECTIVE

To end the AIDS epidemic by 2030, despite the increasing poverty and inequalities, policies should be designed to deal with population heterogeneity and environmental changes. Bottom-up designs, such as the Agent-Based Model (ABM), can model these features, dealing with such complexity. HIV/AIDS has a complex dynamic of structural factors, risk behaviors, biomedical characteristics and interventions. All embedded in unequal, stigmatized and heterogeneous social structure. To understand how ABMs can model this complexity, we performed a scoping review of HIV applications, highlighting their potentialities.

METHODS

We searched on PubMed, Web of Science, and Scopus repositories following the PRISMA extension for scoping reviews. Our inclusion criteria were HIV/AIDS studies with an ABM application. We identified the main articles using a local co-citation analysis and categorized the overall literature aims, (sub)populations, regions, and if the papers declared the use of ODD protocol and limitations.

RESULTS

We found 154 articles. We identified eleven main papers, and discussed them using the overall category results. Most studies model Transmission Dynamics (37/154), about Men who have sex with Men (MSM) (41/154), or individuals living in the US or South Africa (84/154). Recent studies applied ABM to model PrEP interventions (17/154) and Racial Disparities (12/154). Only six papers declared the use of ODD Protocol (6/154), and 34/154 didn't mention the study limitations.

CONCLUSIONS

While ABM is among the most sophisticated techniques available to model HIV/AIDS complexity. Their applications are still restricted to some realities. However, researchers are challenged to think about social structure due model characteristics, the inclusion of these features is still restricted to case-specific. Data and computational power availability can enhance this feature providing insightful results.

Board game on sexually transmitted infections for imprisoned women

INTRODUCTION

The board games is an educational technology that represents an appealing, active and playful pedagogical strategy and may be capable of motivating imprisoned women to learn about Sexually Transmitted Infections.

METHODS

A methodological study to develop and evaluate a board game, following these stages: 1. Integrative literature review to identify educational technologies on Sexually Transmitted Infections used by imprisoned women; 2. Development of the board game; and 3. Content validation performed by 23 evaluators and semantic evaluation carried out with 10 imprisoned women who were enrolled in a school located within a female prison unit in the city of Recife, state of Pernambuco, Brazil.

RESULTS

The board game consisted of the following: 01 board; 01 instructions manual; 05 pawns; 52 cards; and 01 dice. A global Content Validity Index of 0.966 was reached in the content validation process performed by health and education professionals. In the validation of the board game content regarding appearance, performed by designers/developers, most of the items obtained a Content Validity Coefficient below 0.85, which resulted in the need for adjustments and a new validation round with these professionals, in which Content Validity Coefficient = 0.917 was obtained. In the semantic evaluation, all the women stated that they improved their knowledge, increased their motivation to attend the class and would like to play the board game again.

CONCLUSIONS

The "Previna" board game has been validated and can be considered an important pedagogical tool in the construction of knowledge in relation to the prevention, treatment and control of Sexually Transmitted Infections in the female prison context. The quality of this educational technology is directly related to its development based on an appropriate theoretical and methodological framework, in addition to satisfactory feedback from the target audience.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Not applicable.

Impact of post-incarceration care engagement interventions on HIV transmission among young Black men who have sex with men and their sexual partners: an agent-based network modeling study

Background

Understanding the impact of incarceration on HIV transmission among Black men who have sex with men is important given their disproportionate representation among people experiencing incarceration and the potential impact of incarceration on social and sexual networks, employment, housing, and medical care. We developed an agent-based network model (ABNM) of 10,000 agents representing young Black men who have sex with men in the city of Chicago to examine the impact of varying degrees of post-incarceration care disruption and care engagement interventions following release from jail on HIV incidence.

Methods

Exponential random graph models were used to model network formation and dissolution dynamics, and network dynamics and HIV care continuum engagement were varied according to incarceration status. Hypothetical interventions to improve post-release engagement in HIV care for individuals with incarceration (e.g., enhanced case management, linkage to housing and employment services) were compared to a control scenario with no change in HIV care engagement after release.

Finding

HIV incidence at 10 years was 4.98 [95% simulation interval (SI): 4.87, 5.09 per 100 person-years (py)] in the model population overall; 5.58 (95% SI 5.38, 5.76 per 100 py) among those with history of incarceration, and 12.86 (95% SI 11.89, 13.73 per 100 py) among partners of agents recently released from incarceration. Sustained post-release HIV care for agents with HIV and experiencing recent incarceration resulted in a 46% reduction in HIV incidence among post-incarceration partners [incidence rate (IR) per 100 py = 5.72 (95% SI 5.19, 6.27) vs. 10.61 (95% SI 10.09, 11.24); incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 0.54; (95% SI 0.48, 0.60)] and a 19% reduction in HIV incidence in the population overall [(IR per 100 py = 3.89 (95% SI 3.81-3.99) vs. 4.83 (95% SI 4.73, 4.92); IRR = 0.81 (95% SI 0.78, 0.83)] compared to a scenario with no change in HIV care engagement from pre-to post-release.

Interpretation

Developing effective and scalable interventions to increase HIV care engagement among individuals experiencing recent incarceration and their sexual partners is needed to reduce HIV transmission among Black men who have sex with men.

Funding

This work was supported by the following grants from the National Institutes of Health: R01DA039934; P20 GM 130414; P30 AI 042853; P30MH058107; T32 DA 043469; U2C DA050098 and the California HIV/AIDS Research Program: OS17-LA-003; H21PC3466.

HIV risk perception, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) awareness, and PrEP initiation intention among women who use drugs

INTRODUCTION

Women who use drugs (WWUD) are prime candidates for pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) due to their elevated risk of acquiring HIV through biological, behavioral, and contextual factors. However, PrEP uptake among WWUD remains low. The relationship between unhealthy drug use and correlates of PrEP uptake in this vulnerable population is not well defined. The purpose of this study is to characterize the relationships between specific types and routes of drug use and several precursors of PrEP uptake among WWUD.

METHODS

The study collected data via a computer-based survey from 233 women living in New York City and Philadelphia who participated in a study designed to develop and pilot a women-focused intervention for PrEP uptake. The sample of cisgender, HIV-negative women were not currently taking PrEP but considered PrEP eligible. This analysis is focused on women's HIV risk perception, PrEP awareness, PrEP initiation intention, and any use of the following drugs: barbiturates, benzodiazepines, crack cocaine, powder cocaine, hallucinogens, heroin, methamphetamines, and prescription opioids.

RESULTS

Within the three months prior to study enrollment, 63.1 % of participants reported any drug use; 42 % reported polydrug use; 19.8 % had injected drugs; 75 % reported getting high or drunk before sex; and 44 % had been enrolled in drug treatment. Of our total sample, 41.2 % perceived themselves at risk for HIV infection, 41.6 % were aware of PrEP prior to the study, and 62.7 % intended to initiate PrEP after they were informed. When compared to other PrEP-eligible women, women who reported prescription opioid use and polydrug use perceived themselves at higher risk for HIV infection and had higher intention to start PrEP. However, they and women who reported injecting drugs also reported lower awareness of PrEP.

CONCLUSION

These findings have implications for increasing education about PrEP and the various modes of HIV exposure to support PrEP uptake in this vulnerable population.

The Application of Systems Thinking to the Prevention and Control of Sexually Transmissible Infections among Adolescents and Adults: A Scoping Review

Systems thinking is a mechanism for making sense of complex systems that challenge linear explanations of cause-and-effect. While the prevention and control of sexually transmissible infections (STIs) has been identified as an area that may benefit from systems-level analyses, no review on the subject currently exists. The aim of this study is to conduct a scoping review to identify literature in which systems thinking has been applied to the prevention and control of STIs among adolescent and adult populations. Joanna Briggs Institute guidelines for the conduct of scoping reviews were followed. Five databases were searched for English-language studies published after 2011. A total of n = 6102 studies were screened against inclusion criteria and n = 70 were included in the review. The majority of studies (n = 34) were conducted in African nations. Few studies focused on priority sub-populations, and 93% were focused on HIV (n = 65). The most commonly applied systems thinking method was system dynamics modelling (n = 28). The review highlights areas for future research, including the need for more STI systems thinking studies focused on: (1) migrant and Indigenous populations; (2) conditions such as syphilis; and (3) innovations such as pre-exposure prophylaxis and at-home testing for HIV. The need for conceptual clarity around 'systems thinking' is also highlighted.

Context specific HIV risk: evidence from screening into the southern pre-exposure prophylaxis study (SPECS)

While Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is efficacious in preventing HIV, little is known about PrEP use among those on community supervision. The Southern Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis Study (SPECS) investigates barriers and facilitators for PrEP initiation and use among adults on community supervision (e.g., probation, parole). Challenges to PrEP use in this setting are abundant. SPECS uses a mixed-methods sequential design, including a multi-site, prospective cohort study in three southern states - North Carolina, Florida, and Kentucky. This analysis describes individual demographic, criminal legal, and HIV risk factor characteristics, by site and enrollment status. Pooled association analyses accounted for site via stratified statistical tests. Between June 2019-March 2020, SPECS screened 702 individuals and enrolled 276 participants (39%). Of those who were eligible, 98% agreed to enroll. Age, gender, and sexual orientation varied by enrollment and by site, while race/ethnicity varied by site but not enrollment status. Criminal legal histories varied by enrollment and HIV risk factors varied by site. SPECS provides a granular and detailed assessment of HIV risk in three diverse southern settings. It highlights how the level and type of HIV risk varies by location and by nature of criminal legal involvement and calls for the need for context-specific interventions for HIV prevention.

Evaluating the impact of social determinants, conditional cash transfers and primary health care on HIV/AIDS: Study protocol of a retrospective and forecasting approach based on the data integration with a cohort of 100 million Brazilians

BACKGROUND

Despite the great progress made over the last decades, stronger structural interventions are needed to end the HIV/AIDS pandemic in Low and Middle-Income Countries (LMIC). Brazil is one of the largest and data-richest LMIC, with rapidly changing socioeconomic characteristics and an important HIV/AIDS burden. Over the last two decades Brazil has also implemented the world's largest Conditional Cash Transfer programs, the Bolsa Familia Program (BFP), and one of the most consolidated Primary Health Care (PHC) interventions, the Family Health Strategy (FHS).

OBJECTIVE

We will evaluate the effects of socioeconomic determinants, BFP exposure and FHS coverage on HIV/AIDS incidence, treatment adherence, hospitalizations, case fatality, and mortality using unprecedently large aggregate and individual-level longitudinal data. Moreover, we will integrate the retrospective datasets and estimated parameters with comprehensive forecasting models to project HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence and mortality scenarios up to 2030 according to future socioeconomic conditions and alternative policy implementations.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

We will combine individual-level data from all national HIV/AIDS registries with large-scale databases, including the "100 Million Brazilian Cohort", over a 19-year period (2000-2018). Several approaches will be used for the retrospective quasi-experimental impact evaluations, such as Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD), Random Administrative Delays (RAD) and Propensity Score Matching (PSM), combined with multivariable Poisson regressions for cohort analyses. Moreover, we will explore in depth lagged and long-term effects of changes in living conditions and in exposures to BFP and FHS. We will also investigate the effects of the interventions in a wide range of subpopulations. Finally, we will integrate such retrospective analyses with microsimulation, compartmental and agent-based models to forecast future HIV/AIDS scenarios.

CONCLUSION

The unprecedented datasets, analyzed through state-of-the-art quasi-experimental methods and innovative mathematical models will provide essential evidences to the understanding and control of HIV/AIDS epidemic in LMICs such as Brazil.

Agent-Based Modeling of Autosomal Recessive Deafness 1A (DFNB1A) Prevalence with Regard to Intensity of Selection Pressure in Isolated Human Population

An increase in the prevalence of autosomal recessive deafness 1A (DFNB1A) in populations of European descent was shown to be promoted by assortative marriages among deaf people. Assortative marriages became possible with the widespread introduction of sign language, resulting in increased genetic fitness of deaf individuals and, thereby, relaxing selection against deafness. However, the effect of this phenomenon was not previously studied in populations with different genetic structures. We developed an agent-based computer model for the analysis of the spread of DFNB1A. Using this model, we tested the impact of different intensities of selection pressure against deafness in an isolated human population over 400 years. Modeling of the "purifying" selection pressure on deafness ("No deaf mating" scenario) resulted in a decrease in the proportion of deaf individuals and the pathogenic allele frequency. Modeling of the "relaxed" selection ("Assortative mating" scenario) resulted in an increase in the proportion of deaf individuals in the first four generations, which then quickly plateaued with a subsequent decline and a decrease in the pathogenic allele frequency. The results of neutral selection pressure modeling ("Random mating" scenario) showed no significant changes in the proportion of deaf individuals or the pathogenic allele frequency after 400 years.

There are no equal opportunity infectors: Epidemiological modelers must rethink our approach to inequality in infection risk

Mathematical models have come to play a key role in global pandemic preparedness and outbreak response: helping to plan for disease burden, hospital capacity, and inform nonpharmaceutical interventions. Such models have played a pivotal role in the COVID-19 pandemic, with transmission models—and, by consequence, modelers—guiding global, national, and local responses to SARS-CoV-2. However, these models have largely not accounted for the social and structural factors, which lead to socioeconomic, racial, and geographic health disparities. In this piece, we raise and attempt to clarify several questions relating to this important gap in the research and practice of infectious disease modeling: Why do epidemiologic models of emerging infections typically ignore known structural drivers of disparate health outcomes? What have been the consequences of a framework focused primarily on aggregate outcomes on infection equity? What should be done to develop a more holistic approach to modeling-based decision-making during pandemics? In this review, we evaluate potential historical and political explanations for the exclusion of drivers of disparity in infectious disease models for emerging infections, which have often been characterized as “equal opportunity infectors” despite ample evidence to the contrary. We look to examples from other disease systems (HIV, STIs) and successes in including social inequity in models of acute infection transmission as a blueprint for how social connections, environmental, and structural factors can be integrated into a coherent, rigorous, and interpretable modeling framework. We conclude by outlining principles to guide modeling of emerging infections in ways that represent the causes of inequity in infection as central rather than peripheral mechanisms.

Costs and Consequences of Eliminating a Routine, Point-Of-Care HIV Screening Program in a High-Prevalence Jail

INTRODUCTION

This study aims to assess the public health impact of eliminating a longstanding routine HIV screening program and replacing it with targeted testing. In addition, costs, outcomes, and cost effectiveness of routine screening are compared with those of targeted testing in the Fulton County Jail, Atlanta, Georgia.

METHODS

A published mathematical model was used to assess the cost effectiveness and public health impact of routine screening (March 2013-February 2014) compared with those of targeted testing (January 2018-December 2018) from a health system perspective. Costs, outcomes, and other model inputs were derived from the testing programs and the published literature, and the cost effectiveness analysis was conducted from 2019 to 2020.

RESULTS

Routine screening identified 74 more new HIV infections over 1 year than targeted testing, resulting in an estimated 10 HIV transmissions averted and 45 quality-adjusted life-years saved, and was cost saving. The missed opportunity to diagnose infections because routine screening was eliminated resulted in an estimated 8.4 additional HIV transmissions and $3.7 million in additional costs to the healthcare system.

CONCLUSIONS

Routine HIV screening in high-prevalence jails is cost effective and has a larger impact on public health than targeted testing. Prioritizing sustained funding for routine, jail-based HIV screening programs in high-prevalence areas may be important to realizing the national HIV prevention goals.

Social Determination of HIV: Women's Relationship Work in the Context of Mass Incarceration and Housing Vulnerability

We contrast a typical "social determinants of health" framing with a more dynamic and complex "social determination of health" framing to analyze HIV-related sexual risk among women in low-income, segregated neighborhoods in New Haven, CT. Using an abductive approach, we analyze repeated, longitudinal qualitative interviews conducted over a 2-year period with a sample of 14 HIV-negative women who engaged in sex with men during the study period. Three case studies are presented to demonstrate how behaviors and sexual practices typically described as HIV "risks" can be understood as part of the work of establishing and maintaining monogamous committed relationships, which we call "relationship work," shaped in a context characterized by housing vulnerabilities and the many manifestations of mass incarceration and the surveillance state. We conclude by suggesting that for these women, their relationship work is the work of HIV prevention and life in low-income segregated neighborhoods is their HIV-related risk.

Machine learning takes a village: Assessing neighbourhood-level vulnerability for an overdose and infectious disease outbreak

BACKGROUND

Multiple areas in the United States of America (USA) are experiencing high rates of overdose and outbreaks of bloodborne infections, including HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV), due to non-sterile injection drug use. We aimed to identify neighbourhoods at increased vulnerability for overdose and infectious disease outbreaks in Rhode Island, USA. The primary aim was to pilot machine learning methods to identify which neighbourhood-level factors were important for creating "vulnerability assessment scores" across the state. The secondary aim was to engage stakeholders to pilot an interactive mapping tool and visualize the results.

METHODS

From September 2018 to November 2019, we conducted a neighbourhood-level vulnerability assessment and stakeholder engagement process named The VILLAGE Project (Vulnerability Investigation of underlying Local risk And Geographic Events). We developed a predictive analytics model using machine learning methods (LASSO, Elastic Net, and RIDGE) to identify areas with increased vulnerability to an outbreak of overdose, HIV and HCV, using census tract-level counts of overdose deaths as a proxy for injection drug use patterns and related health outcomes. Stakeholders reviewed mapping tools for face validity and community distribution.

RESULTS

Machine learning prediction models were suitable for estimating relative neighbourhood-level vulnerability to an outbreak. Variables of importance in the model included housing cost burden, prior overdose deaths, housing density, and education level. Eighty-nine census tracts (37%) with no prior overdose fatalities were identified as being vulnerable to such an outbreak, and nine of those were identified as having a vulnerability assessment score in the top 25%. Results were disseminated as a vulnerability stratification map and an online interactive mapping tool.

CONCLUSION

Machine learning methods are well suited to predict neighborhoods at higher vulnerability to an outbreak. These methods show promise as a tool to assess structural vulnerabilities and work to prevent outbreaks at the local level.

An application of agent-based modeling to explore the impact of decreasing incarceration rates and increasing drug treatment access on sero-discordant partnerships among people who inject drugs

BACKGROUND

People who inject drugs (PWID) lag behind other key populations in HIV care continuum outcomes. The impacts of criminal justice reform and increasing drug treatment access on HIV have been underexplored.

METHODS

We developed agent-based models (ABM) of sexual partnerships among PWID and non-PWID, and injection equipment-sharing partnerships among PWID in five US cities (Baltimore, Boston, Miami, New York City, San Francisco) over 3 years. The first set of ABM projected changes in partnership discordance among PWID as a function of decreasing ZIP code-level incarceration rates. The second set projected discordance as a function of increasing ZIP code-level drug treatment access. ABM were parameterized and validated overall, and by city and PWID race/ethnicity (Black, Latino, White) using National HIV Behavioral Surveillance data, administrative ZIP code-level data, surveillance reports and prior literature. Informed by research on prisoner release and community-level HIV prevalence, reductions in incarceration rates were fixed at 5% and 30% and respectively projected to increase ZIP code-level HIV prevalence by 2% and 12%. Increases in drug treatment access were fixed at 30% and 58%.

RESULTS

In each city, a 30% reduction in ZIP code-level incarceration rates and 12% increase in ZIP code-level HIV prevalence significantly increased sero-discordance among at least one racial/ethnic group of PWID by 1-3 percentage points. A 5% reduction in incarceration rates, and 30% and 58% increases in drug treatment access, led to isolated significant changes in sero-discordance among Black and White PWID that were less than 1 percentage point.

CONCLUSION

Reductions in incarceration rates may lead to short-term increases in sero-discordant partnerships among some PWID by increasing community-level HIV prevalence. Efforts to increase HIV testing, engagement in care and community reintegration post release, should be strengthened in the wake of incarceration reform. Additional research should confirm these findings and explore the lack of widespread impacts of drug treatment in this study.

Barriers and Facilitators to Pre-exposure Prophylaxis Uptake Among Black Women: A Qualitative Analysis Guided by a Socioecological Model

ABSTRACT

Black women experience disparities in HIV incidence. Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is a once-daily pill that can prevent HIV transmission. To enhance PrEP uptake among Black women, it is essential to examine their perceptions of PrEP. In 2018, 33 Black women in New York City completed interviews about their attitudes, knowledge, and perceived barriers and facilitators to PrEP use. Emergent themes were organized using a socioecological model. Participants identified barriers at the sociocultural level, including stigma, medical mistrust, and health care avoidance. At the community level, health care access issues and limited community knowledge were reported. Partner-level barriers included trust in partners and meaning attributed to PrEP use within the context of monogamy. Individual-level barriers included low perceived risk and concerns about PrEP's safety and efficacy. Our findings can inform future PrEP research with Black women, as well as PrEP implementation efforts aimed at increasing uptake among this population.

Lifetime Burden of Incarceration and Violence, Internalized Homophobia, and HIV/STI Risk Among Black Men Who Have Sex with Men in the HPTN 061 Study

Black men who have sex with men (BMSM) have disproportionate HIV/STI acquisition risk. Incarceration may increase exposure to violence and exacerbate psychosocial vulnerabilities, including internalized homophobia, which are associated with HIV/STI acquisition risk. Using data from HIV Prevention Trials Network 061 (N = 1553), we estimated adjusted prevalence ratios (APR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for associations between lifetime burden of incarceration and HIV/STI risk outcomes. We measured associations between incarceration and HIV/STI risk outcomes with hypothesized mediators of recent violence victimization and internalized homophobia. Compared to those never incarcerated, those with 3-9 or ≥ 10 incarcerations had approximately 10% higher prevalence of multiple partnerships. Incarceration burden was associated with selling sex (1-2 incarcerations: APR: 1.52, 95% CI 1.14-2.03; 3-9: APR: 1.77, 95% CI 1.35-2.33; ≥ 10: APR: 1.85, 95% CI 1.37-2.51) and buying sex (≥ 10 incarcerations APR: 1.80, 95% CI 1.18-2.75). Compared to never incarcerated, 1-2 incarcerations appeared to be associated with current chlamydia (APR: 1.47, 95% CI 0.98-2.20) and 3-9 incarcerations appeared to be associated with current syphilis (APR: 1.46, 95% CI 0.92-2.30). Incarceration was independently associated with violence, which in turn was a correlate of transactional sex. Longitudinal research is warranted to clarify the role of incarceration in violence and HIV/STI risk in this population.

Association of census tract-level incarceration rate and life expectancy in New York State

BACKGROUND

Jail incarceration rates are positively associated with mortality at the county level. However, incarceration rates vary within counties, limiting the generalisability of this finding to neighbourhoods, where incarceration may have the greatest effects.

METHODS

We performed a cross-sectional analysis of census tract-level state imprisonment rates in New York State (2010) and life expectancy data from the US Small-area Life Expectancy Estimates Project (2010-2015). We modelled fixed-effects for counties and controlled for tract-level poverty, racial makeup, education, and population density from the American Community Survey (2010-2014), and violent crime data from the New York City Police Department (2010). We also examined interactions between incarceration rate and poverty, racial makeup, and population density on life expectancy.

RESULTS

Life expectancy at the highest quintile of incarceration was 5.5 years lower than in the lowest quintile, and over 2 years lower in a fully-adjusted model. Census tract-level poverty and racial makeup both moderated the association between incarceration and life expectancy.

CONCLUSION

Census tract-level incarceration is associated with lower life expectancy. Decarceration, including alternatives to incarceration, and release of those currently incarcerated, may help to improve life expectancy at the neighbourhood level.

HIV Related Knowledge, HIV Testing Decision-Making, and Perceptions of Alcohol Use as a Risk Factor for HIV among Black and African American Women

The HIV/AIDS epidemic disproportionately affects Black and African American women in the United States. This study examined the extent of HIV related knowledge, HIV testing decision-making, and perceptions of alcohol use as a risk factor for HIV among Black and African American women in urban and suburban communities. Seven focus groups were conducted with 37 women aged 18 to 49 residing in the Commonwealth of Massachusetts. Women participating in focus groups had a wide breadth of HIV related knowledge. Findings suggest the influence of interpersonal relationships and provider-patient interactions on HIV testing, the need for building community capacity and leveraging community resources towards HIV prevention, and the influence of alcohol outlet density on HIV vulnerability and exposure in communities of color. Comprehensive multifaceted evidence informed interventions that are culturally relevant and gender responsive are needed to reduce HIV/AIDS disparities.

Effect of interventions based on educational technologies on the prevention of sexually transmitted infections in incarcerated women: protocol of a systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

Prisons are places with high vulnerability and high risk for the development of sexually transmitted infections. World Health Agencies recommend establishing intervention measures, such as information and education, on the prevention of diseases. Thus, technologies as tools for health education have been used to reduce sexually transmitted infections. However, no systematic review has investigated the effectiveness of these interventions. Therefore, this review's objective is to examine the effect of educational technologies used for preventing sexually transmitted infections in incarcerated women.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines will be strictly followed. The following electronic databases will be searched: Scopus; Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health, Education Resources Information Center, Embase, PsycINFO, PubMed/Medline, Web of Science and Google Scholar. Randomised clinical trials of interventions that used educational technologies to prevent sexually transmitted infections in incarcerated women will be searched in the databases from the beginning of 2020 until December by two researchers independently. A narrative synthesis will be constructed for all included studies, and if there are sufficient data, a meta-analysis will be performed using the Review Manager software (V.5.3). Continuous results will be presented as the weighted mean difference or the standardised mean difference with 95% CIs. Under the heterogeneity of the included studies, a random-effects or fixed-effects model will be used. The studies' heterogeneity will be assessed by the I² method. The sensitivity analysis will be carried out to examine the magnitude of each study's influence on the general results. A significance level of p≤0.05 will be adopted.

ETHICS AND DISCLOSURE

Ethical approval is not required because no primary data will be collected. The results will be published in journals reviewed by peers.

PROSPERO REGISTRATION NUMBER

CRD42020163820.

Preexposure prophylaxis strategies for African-American women affected by mass incarceration

OBJECTIVE

We aimed to determine the effectiveness of various preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) prescription strategies for African-American women impacted by mass incarceration within an urban setting.

DESIGN

An agent-based model was utilized to evaluate prevention strategies in an efficient, ethical manner. By defining agents, their characteristics and relationships, we assessed population-level effects of PrEP on HIV incidence.

METHODS

We tested hypothetical PrEP prescription strategies within a simulation representing the African-American population of Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. Four strategies were evaluated: PrEP for women meeting CDC indicators regarding partner characteristics, PrEP for women with a recently incarcerated male partner, PrEP for women with a recently released male partner and couples-based PrEP at time of release. Interventions occurred alongside scale-up of HAART. We evaluated reductions in HIV transmissions, the number of persons on PrEP needed to avert one HIV transmission (NNT) and the resulting proportions of people on PrEP.

RESULTS

Scenarios prescribing PrEP based on criminal justice system involvement reduced HIV transmissions. The NNT ranged from 147 (couples-based scenario) to 300 (recently released scenario). The percentage of the female population covered by PrEP at any one time ranged from 0.14% (couples-based) to 10.8% (CDC-based). CDC-guideline scenarios were consistently less efficient compared to the justice-involved interventions.

CONCLUSION

Expanding PrEP for African-American women and their male partners affected by incarceration should be considered in national HIV prevention goals and correctional facilities leveraged as intervention sites. Partner characteristics in the current CDC indications may be more effective and efficient if guidelines considered criminal justice involvement.

Educational technologies on sexually transmitted infections for incarcerated women

OBJECTIVE

to analyze in the scientific literature the educational technologies on sexually transmitted infections used in health education for incarcerated women.

METHOD

an integrative review carried out by searching for articles in the following databases: Scopus, Cumulative Index of Nursing and Allied Health, Education Resources Information Center, PsycInFO, Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online, Latin American Literature in Health Sciences, Cochrane, and the ScienceDirect electronic library. There were no language and time restrictions. A search strategy was developed in PubMed and later adapted to the other databases.

RESULTS

a total of 823 studies were initially identified and, after applying inclusion and exclusion criteria, eight articles were selected. Most of them were developed in the United States with a predominance of randomized clinical trials. The technologies identified were of the printed materials type, isolated or associated to simulators of genital organs, videos, and games.

CONCLUSION

the technologies on sexually transmitted infections used in health education for incarcerated women may contribute to adherence to the prevention of this serious public health problem in the context of deprivation of liberty.

Behind bars: the burden of being a woman in Brazilian prisons

Background

Brazil has the third largest prison population in the world. In 2016, the female prison population totaled 42,000, an increase of 656% over the population recorded in the early 2000s. The objective of this study was to describe the socialeconomic and reproductive health of women in Brazilian prisons, and the specific assistance received within the prison system.

Methods

This is a first of its kind national survey conducted in 15 female prisons in eight Brazilian states between 2014 and 2015. The sample consisted of 1327 women in closed or semi-open prison regimes. Data collection used Audio Computer-Assisted Self-Interviewing (ACASI). STATA v.15. Was use in analysis. The study was submitted to the Research Ethics Committee of the Federal University of Ceará, under CEP protocol No. 1,024,053.

Results

The population was overwhelmingly Black or Brown, poor and little educated. When women worked previously, they had worked as domestic servants and were the sole source of income for their families. Most were mothers, with 39% having children less than 10 years old, now in the care of others. Most were in jail for drug-related crimes. Prisons were crowded, with more than 2/3rds of the inmates sharing a cell with 6 or more inmates. Services were provide, but women had not had a cervical cancer screening within the past 3 years and breast cancer screening was not conducted.

Conclusions

Overall, given their backround and prison conditions they are unlikely to change the circumstances that brought them to prison in the first place.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12914-020-00247-7.

Returning to care after incarceration with HIV: the French Guianese experience

Background

HIV prevalence in correctional facilities may be 2 to 10 times higher than in the general adult population. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) interruption is frequent after an incarceration. This, in combination with post-release high-risk behaviors, may have detrimental consequences on the epidemic. Although return to care after release from correctional facilities has been described in many North American settings, data from South America seemed scarce.

French Guiana is the only French territory located in South America. In 2014, HIV prevalence was estimated at 1.2% among pregnant women and oscillated around 4% in the only correctional facility.

Method

HIV-infected adults released from the French Guiana correctional facility between 2007 and 2013 were included in a retrospective cohort survey. The first objective was to describe the cascade of care in the 4 years following release. The secondary objectives were to describe contacts with care and to identify factors associated with return to HIV care, 1 year after release.

Results

We included 147 people, mostly males (81.6%). The median time before the first ambulatory consultation was 1.8 months. Within 1 year after release, 27.9% came for unscheduled emergency consultations, 22.4% were hospitalized. Within 4 years after release, 40.0–46.5% were in care, 22.4% archieved virological success.

Being on ART when incarcerated was associated with HIV care (aIRR: 2.0, CI: 1.2–3.0), whereas being HIV-diagnosed during the last incarceration was associated with poor follow-up (aIRR: 0.3, CI: 0.1–0.9).

Conclusion

The risk of HIV-follow-up interruption is high, after an incarceration with HIV. ART supply should be sufficient to cover the timespan following release, several months if possible. Those not on ART at the time of incarceration may require special attention, especially those newly HIV-diagnosed while in custody. Comprehensive programs are necessary to support ex-offenders to stay on ART after incarceration.

Decreasing HIV transmissions to African American women through interventions for men living with HIV post-incarceration: An agent-based modeling study

Background

Incarceration and HIV disproportionately impact African American communities. The mass incarceration of African American men is hypothesized to increase HIV acquisition risk for African American women. Interventions optimizing HIV care engagement and minimizing sexual risk behaviors for men living with HIV post-incarceration may decrease HIV incidence.

Methods

Using an agent-based model, we simulated a sexual and injection drug using network representing the African American population of Philadelphia. We compared intervention strategies for men living with HIV post-incarceration by the number of averted HIV transmissions to women within the community. Three interventions were evaluated: a 90-90-90 scenario scaling up HIV testing, ART provision, and ART adherence; a behavioral intervention decreasing sexual risk behaviors; and a combination intervention involving both.

Results

The status quo scenario projected 2,836 HIV transmissions to women over twenty years. HIV transmissions to women decreased by 29% with the 90-90-90 intervention, 23% with the behavioral intervention, and 37% with both. The number of men living with HIV receiving the intervention needed in order to prevent a single HIV transmission ranged between 6 and 10.

Conclusion

Interventions to improve care engagement and decrease sexual risk behaviors post-incarceration for men living with HIV have the potential to decrease HIV incidence within African American heterosexual networks.