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Lin B, Liu J, Li K, Zhong X. Predicting the Risk of HIV Infection and Sexually Transmitted Diseases Among Men Who Have Sex With Men: Cross-Sectional Study Using Multiple Machine Learning Approaches. J Med Internet Res 2025; 27:e59101. [PMID: 39977856 PMCID: PMC11888048 DOI: 10.2196/59101] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/02/2024] [Revised: 12/12/2024] [Accepted: 01/02/2025] [Indexed: 02/22/2025] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Men who have sex with men (MSM) are at high risk for HIV infection and sexually transmitted diseases (STDs). However, there is a lack of accurate and convenient tools to assess this risk. OBJECTIVE This study aimed to develop machine learning models and tools to predict and assess the risk of HIV infection and STDs among MSM. METHODS We conducted a cross-sectional study that collected individual characteristics of 1999 MSM with negative or unknown HIV serostatus in Western China from 2013 to 2023. MSM self-reported their STD history and were tested for HIV. We compared the accuracy of 6 machine learning methods in predicting the risk of HIV infection and STDs using 7 parameters for a comprehensive assessment, ranking the methods according to their performance in each parameter. We selected data from the Sichuan MSM for external validation. RESULTS Of the 1999 MSM, 72 (3.6%) tested positive for HIV and 146 (7.3%) self-reported a history of previous STD infection. After taking the results of the intersection of the 3 feature screening methods, a total of 7 and 5 predictors were screened for predicting HIV infection and STDs, respectively, and multiple machine learning prediction models were constructed. Extreme gradient boost models performed optimally in predicting the risk of HIV infection and STDs, with area under the curve values of 0.777 (95% CI 0.639-0.915) and 0.637 (95% CI 0.541-0.732), respectively, demonstrating stable performance in both internal and external validation. The highest combined predictive performance scores of HIV and STD models were 33 and 39, respectively. Interpretability analysis showed that nonadherence to condom use, low HIV knowledge, multiple male partners, and internet dating were risk factors for HIV infection. Low degree of education, internet dating, and multiple male and female partners were risk factors for STDs. The risk stratification analysis showed that the optimal model effectively distinguished between high- and low-risk MSM. MSM were classified into HIV (predicted risk score <0.506 and ≥0.506) and STD (predicted risk score <0.479 and ≥0.479) risk groups. In total, 22.8% (114/500) were in the HIV high-risk group, and 43% (215/500) were in the STD high-risk group. HIV infection and STDs were significantly higher in the high-risk groups (P<.001 and P=.05, respectively), with higher predicted probabilities (P<.001 for both). The prediction results of the optimal model were displayed in web applications for probability estimation and interactive computation. CONCLUSIONS Machine learning methods have demonstrated strengths in predicting the risk of HIV infection and STDs among MSM. Risk stratification models and web applications can facilitate clinicians in accurately assessing the risk of infection in individuals with high risk, especially MSM with concealed behaviors, and help them to self-monitor their risk for targeted, timely diagnosis and interventions to reduce new infections.
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Affiliation(s)
- Bing Lin
- School of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
- Research Center for Medicine and Social Development, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Jiaxiu Liu
- School of Medical Informatics, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Kangjie Li
- School of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
- Research Center for Medicine and Social Development, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
| | - Xiaoni Zhong
- School of Public Health, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
- Research Center for Medicine and Social Development, Chongqing Medical University, Chongqing, China
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Xu W, Li H, Zhao P, Wang J, Liang P, Wang C. Trends of chlamydia and gonorrhea infections by anatomic sites among men who have sex with men in south China: a surveillance analysis from 2018 to 2022. BMC Public Health 2024; 24:2484. [PMID: 39267000 PMCID: PMC11391739 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-024-19987-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/23/2024] [Accepted: 09/04/2024] [Indexed: 09/14/2024] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Chlamydia and gonorrhea notifications are rapidly rising in men who have sex with men (MSM). Currently, there are limited data on the prevalence of chlamydia and gonorrhea across various anatomical sites. Our study aimed to explore the prevalence, association and changing trends of urethral and rectal chlamydia and gonorrhea among MSM in Guangdong Province, China. METHODS We analyzed data among MSM attending sexually transmitted infections (STI) clinics in the Guangdong governmental sentinel network between 2018 and 2022. Chi-square tests were used to compare the difference, Join-point regressions for analyzing changing trends, and multivariate logistic regressions for examining associated factors. RESULTS We included 4856 men in the analysis. Rectal chlamydia significantly increased from 13.8% to 26.4% over the past 5 years (average annual percentage change [AAPC] 19.2%, 95%CI 1.0-40.6, p = 0.043). After adjusting for covariates, chlamydia infection positively associated with main venue used to seek sexual partners (aOR = 2.31, 95%CI 1.17-4.55), having regular sexual partners in the past 6 months (aOR = 3.32, 95%CI 1.95-5.64), receiving HIV counselling and testing services (aOR = 2.94, 95%CI 1.67-5.17), receiving peer education (aOR = 1.80, 95%CI 1.14-2.83), infection with syphilis (aOR = 2.02, 95%CI 1.02-4.01) and infection with gonorrhea (aOR 7.04, 95% CI 3.01-16.48). Gonorrhea infection positively associated with having regular sexual partners in the past 6 months (aOR = 3.48.95%CI 1.16-10.49), and infection with chlamydia (aOR 7.03, 95% CI 2.99-16.51). CONCLUSIONS To conclude, our findings reveal a high prevalence of chlamydia infections among MSM, particularly in the rectal area. Comprehensive chlamydia and gonorrhea health services are necessary for MSM to improve sexual health.
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Affiliation(s)
- Wenqian Xu
- Dermatology Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510095, China
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, China
- Southern Medical University Institute for Global Health, Guangzhou, 510095, China
| | - Haiyi Li
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, China
- Southern Medical University Institute for Global Health, Guangzhou, 510095, China
| | - Peizhen Zhao
- Dermatology Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510095, China
- Southern Medical University Institute for Global Health, Guangzhou, 510095, China
| | - Jinshen Wang
- Dermatology Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510095, China
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, China
- Southern Medical University Institute for Global Health, Guangzhou, 510095, China
| | - Peng Liang
- Dermatology Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510095, China
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, China
- Southern Medical University Institute for Global Health, Guangzhou, 510095, China
| | - Cheng Wang
- Dermatology Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510095, China.
- School of Public Health, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, 510515, China.
- Southern Medical University Institute for Global Health, Guangzhou, 510095, China.
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Marley G, Tan RKJ, Wu D, Wang T, Sun M, Sheng Q, Holly ME, Hlatshwako TG, Wang C, Tang W, Ramaswamy R, Yang L, Luo D, Sylvia SS, Gray K, Van Duin D, Zheng H, Tucker JD. Pay-it-forward gonorrhea and chlamydia testing among men who have sex with men and male STD patients in China: the PIONEER pragmatic, cluster randomized controlled trial protocol. BMC Public Health 2023; 23:1182. [PMID: 37337181 PMCID: PMC10280958 DOI: 10.1186/s12889-023-16095-8] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/24/2022] [Accepted: 06/09/2023] [Indexed: 06/21/2023] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Gonorrhea and chlamydia are the most common sexually transmitted diseases (STDs) among men who have sex with men (MSM) in China. Previous studies have shown pay-it-forward (PIF) interventions to be associated with a substantial increase in gonorrhea and chlamydia test uptake compared to standard-of-care. We propose a 'pay-it-forward' gonorrhea and chlamydia testing randomized controlled trial (PIONEER). The trial would evaluate the effectiveness of two pay-it-forward strategies in promoting testing uptake compared to the standard of care (in which men pay for their tests out-of-pocket) among MSM and male STD patients in China. METHODS PIONEER will be a three-armed, pragmatic cluster randomized controlled trial (RCT), conducted across 12 clinics (six MSM-led and six public STD clinics) to compare the effectiveness of three implementation strategies. Each facility will be randomized to a standard pay-it-forward intervention of gonorrhea/ chlamydia testing with minimal encouragement for testing, a community-engaged pay-it-forward arm, or a control arm where men pay for their tests out-of-pockets. The primary outcome will be dual gonorrhea/chlamydia test uptake. Secondary outcomes will include syphilis testing, amount donated in pay-it-forward, number of positive gonorrhea and chlamydia tests, and measures of antimicrobial resistance. A sequential transformative mixed methods design will be used to evaluate the implementation process in type 2 effectiveness-implementation hybrid design. Data sources will include survey on acceptability, and feelings and attitudes towards the interventions among participants; testing and treatment uptake data from clinic records, WeChat records, and qualitative data to gain insights into men's perceptions and attitudes towards the pay-it-forward, mechanisms driving uptake, and donating behaviors. Implementers and organizers will be interviewed about fidelity and adherence to protocol, sustainability of pay-it-forward intervention, and barriers and facilitators of implementing the intervention. DISCUSSION PIONEER will substantially increase gonorrhea/chlamydia testing among MSM in China, providing an innovative and new financial mechanism to sustain STD screening among sexual minorities in low- and middle-income countries. This study will answer compelling scientific questions about how best to implement pay-it-forward and the individual and organizational characteristics that moderate it. TRIAL REGISTRATION The study with identification number NCT05723263 has been registered on clinicaltrials.gov/.
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Affiliation(s)
- Gifty Marley
- University of North Carolina Project-China, Guangzhou, China
| | | | - Dan Wu
- Clinical Research Department, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK
| | - Tong Wang
- University of North Carolina Project-China, Guangzhou, China
| | - Murong Sun
- University of North Carolina Project-China, Guangzhou, China
| | - Qilei Sheng
- University of North Carolina Project-China, Guangzhou, China
| | | | | | - Cheng Wang
- Dermatology Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Weiming Tang
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel-Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Rohit Ramaswamy
- Cincinnati Children's Hospital Medical Center, Cincinnati, OH, USA
| | - Ligang Yang
- Dermatology Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Danyang Luo
- University of North Carolina Project-China, Guangzhou, China
| | - Sean S Sylvia
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel-Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Kurt Gray
- University of North Carolina at Chapel-Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - David Van Duin
- University of North Carolina at Chapel-Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA
| | - Heping Zheng
- Dermatology Hospital, Southern Medical University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Joseph D Tucker
- Clinical Research Department, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, UK.
- Department of Medicine, University of North Carolina at Chapel-Hill, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.
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Shi L, Luo J, Chen Y, Chen L, Hu H, Qiu T, Liu X, Xu X, Chen Y, Zhang Z, Zhou Y, Lu J, Fu G. Prevalence of syphilis and chlamydia trachomatis infection among female sex workers in Jiangsu, China: Results from a multicenter cross-sectional and venue-based study. Front Public Health 2022; 10:1018724. [PMID: 36388309 PMCID: PMC9659951 DOI: 10.3389/fpubh.2022.1018724] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/13/2022] [Accepted: 10/14/2022] [Indexed: 01/28/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Female sex workers (FSWs) are considered highly vulnerable to sexually transmitted infections (STIs), but available data on the prevalence of STIs among FSWs in China is limited at a provincial level. This study aimed to evaluate the prevalence of STIs and risk factors among FSWs in Jiangsu, China. Methods We conducted a multicenter cross-sectional study in seven cities of Jiangsu to investigate the prevalence and risk factors associated with HIV and other STIs. Blood and urine were collected to test for HIV, syphilis, Hepatitis C (HCV), Neisseria gonorrhoeae (NG) and Chlamydia trachomatis (CT) infections. Results We enrolled 3,580 FSWs. The overall prevalence of bacterial STIs was 6.2% (5.4%-7.0%). The prevalence of HIV, syphilis infection, HCV, NG and CT were 0.1% (95%CI, 0.0-0.2), 1.8% (95%CI, 1.4-2.3), 0.3% (95%CI, 0.1-0.5), 0.3% (95%CI, 0.2-0.5) and 4.3% (95%CI, 3.6-5.0), respectively. Most FSWs (85.6%) reported consistent condom use with clients in the past month. Only 10.6% of FSWs reported group sex, and 68.3% self-reported HIV testing in the previous year. According to the multivariable model, having group sex in the past year (aOR, 2.521, 95%CI: 1.366-4.651) and HIV infection (aOR, 26.260, 95%CI: 2.432-283.563) were associated with a higher risk of syphilis infection. Migrants (aOR, 1.669, 95%CI: 1.163-2.395), having a history of STIs in the past year (aOR, 4.601, 95%CI: 1.003-21.118), and NG infection (aOR, 38.549, 95%CI: 11.214-132.514) were associated with a higher risk of CT infection. On the contrary, FSWs aged older than 25 were associated with lower risk of syphilis infection (25-34: aOR, 0.339, 95%CI: 0.151-0.763) and CT infection (25-34: aOR, 0.503, 95%CI: 0.316-0.802; ≥35: aOR, 0.578, 95%CI: 0.362-0.925). Conclusion This study's prevalence rates of syphilis and CT infections show the need to promote comprehensive STIs control and prevention strategies, including behavioral intervention and STIs screening, especially in younger high-risk populations. With the increasing coverage of HIV testing, integrating other STIs screening with HIV testing may be a reasonable way to implement comprehensive STIs control and prevention.
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Affiliation(s)
- Lingen Shi
- Institute for STIs and HIV Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China,Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Molecular Medicine, Medical School, Nanjing University, Nanjing, China
| | - Jun Luo
- Department of Clinical Central Laboratory, Jiangsu Health Vocational College, Nanjing, China
| | - Yuheng Chen
- Institute for STIs and HIV Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
| | - Liping Chen
- Institute for STIs and HIV Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
| | - Haiyang Hu
- Institute for STIs and HIV Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
| | - Tao Qiu
- Institute for STIs and HIV Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
| | - Xiaoyan Liu
- Institute for STIs and HIV Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
| | - Xiaoqin Xu
- Institute for STIs and HIV Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
| | - Yunting Chen
- Institute for STIs and HIV Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
| | - Zhi Zhang
- Institute for STIs and HIV Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
| | - Ying Zhou
- Institute for STIs and HIV Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
| | - Jing Lu
- Institute for STIs and HIV Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China
| | - Gengfeng Fu
- Institute for STIs and HIV Control and Prevention, Jiangsu Provincial Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Nanjing, China,*Correspondence: Gengfeng Fu
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