COVID-19 mortality rate determinants in selected Eastern European countries

Exploring Age, Gender and Pandemic Dynamics: A Retrospective Analysis of the Impact of SARS-CoV-2 on Human Health

BACKGROUND

The deaths due to the SARS-CoV-2 virus increased rapidly over a short period of time. From the beginning of the pandemic until September 2024, the number of COVID-19 cases reached 776,205,140 cases, with 7,064,380 deaths worldwide. The total number of deaths recorded from the beginning of the pandemic until September 2024 represents a share of 0.09% of the total world population and 0.91% of the total infected population.

METHODS

The data in this study were collected from the Ministry of Internal Affairs of Romania, Eurostat, NIS and WHO sites, and analyzed using Microsoft Excel and SPSS 22 in order to detect the evolution trends during the state of emergency, the share of infection and deaths among the European countries and worldwide, differences between gender categories or age groups and to identify factors that can be related to the incidence of infection and mortality due to COVID-19.

RESULTS

Males registered a significant higher number of deaths compared to women in Romania, a trend that aligns with global tendencies (p < 0.05). Also, the 70-79 age group had the highest mortality rate, followed by the over 80 age group and the 60-69 age group. Therefore, the risk of death from COVID-19 increases significantly with age. A good health education may be essential in order to promote a high life expectancy. A higher life expectancy correlated with a lower rate of mortality. BMI can be a factor contributing to the increased comorbidities, and may influence the fatality levels of COVID-19.

H, Figueira FAMDS, Andrade RLM, de Abreu LC. Evolution of COVID-19 in the State of São Paulo: Analysis of Incidence, Mortality and Lethality from 2020 to 2023

INTRODUCTION

COVID-19 is a respiratory disease caused by the SARS-CoV-2 virus, which belongs to the coronavirus family. SARS-CoV-2 is related to other viruses that cause severe acute respiratory syndrome. The emergence of cases of pneumonia of unknown origin triggered the largest viral pandemic in modern times, presenting major challenges to global public health.

OBJECTIVE

To analyze the evolution of the COVID-19 pandemic in the state of São Paulo from 2020 to 2023, focusing on trends in incidence, mortality, and lethality.

METHODS

Ecological study of time series of incidence, mortality and lethality by COVID-19 in the state of São Paulo using Prais-Winsten regression considering the Weekly Percentage Change (WPC) and probability values (p), considering a significance level of 95% (95% CI). To ensure the reliability of the entered data, double-blind typing was performed by different researchers in the same database extracted from the 2024 Ministry of Health Coronavirus dashboard.

RESULTS

From February 2020 and the end of December 2023, 6,763,310 accumulated cases and 182,254 deaths were recorded. Stationary trends were observed for the year 2022, with a reduction in incidence and mortality in the year 2023. However, the epidemiological variable lethality showed a stationary trend.

CONCLUSION

The analysis of the trends in incidence, mortality, and lethality revealed variable dynamics over time, with emphasis on the significant reduction of these indicators in 2023.

Symptoms can predict COVID-19 pneumonia in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants

Pneumonia is a key criterion for the severity of COVID-19. Whether COVID-19 symptoms are indicators of pneumonia in patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants is unclear. 6200 non-hospitalized patients with COVID-19 from three sites in three hospitals were divided into three cohorts: Cohort 1 (n = 1971, Outpatient Department), Cohort 2 (n = 1073, Emergency Department), and Cohort 3 (n = 3156, Fever Clinic). The association of COVID-19 symptoms with pneumonia in the patients were analysed. In Cohort 1, dry cough, expectoration, fever, muscle or body aches, sore throat, headache or dizziness, shortness of breath, and difficulty breathing were associated with pneumonia. For Cohort 2, expectoration, fatigue, congestion or runny nose, sore throat, headache or dizziness, chills, chest stuffiness, shortness of breath, and difficulty breathing were related to pneumonia. With Cohort 3, dry cough, expectoration, vomiting, chest stuffiness, shortness of breath, and difficulty breathing had associations with pneumonia. Moreover, duration of symptoms > 7 days was associated with pneumonia in all three cohorts. In the study, expectoration, shortness of breath, difficulty breathing, and duration of symptoms > 7 days were useful predictors of COVID-19 pneumonia in the patients infected with SARS-CoV-2 Omicron variants. Among these predictors, shortness of breath and difficulty breathing were high-risk early-warning factors for pneumonia, and duration of symptoms > 7 days was also a high-risk factor for pneumonia.

Family Dynamics, Socioeconomic Hardships, and Health Risk Behaviours of Bulgarian Adolescents during the COVID-19 Pandemic

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

This study aims to explore family dynamics and the economic hardships experienced by families during the COVID-19 pandemic and their associations with adolescents' health risk behaviours (HRBs).

METHODS

Based on a representative study of adolescents aged 11-16 conducted in Bulgaria during the COVID-19 pandemic and HBSC data from the pre-pandemic period, logistic regression models were applied, assessing cigarette smoking, vaping, alcohol use, drunkenness, and cannabis use. The independent variables included demographics, Family Affluence Scale (FAS III), family structure, ease of communication with parents, and the authors' developed questions on parents' income and economic status change, family conflicts, and missing contact with extended family due to the pandemic.

RESULTS

Material status of the family showed increasing differentials in adolescents' HRBs during the pandemic. Parental unemployment, income reduction, and temporary lay-offs were associated with a higher risk of substance use. Family conflicts, missing contact with extended family, and difficulties in communication with the mother were related to a higher risk of substance use. Communication with the father was significantly associated with alcohol use and drunkenness. Boys had lower odds of vaping and higher odds of alcohol use, drunkenness, and cannabis use. Higher age and minority status were associated with an increase in adolescents' HRBs.

CONCLUSIONS

This study highlights the need for special family-focused interventions in times of health and economic crises.

Safety Profile of Upadacitinib up to 5 Years in Psoriatic Arthritis, Ankylosing Spondylitis, and Non-radiographic Axial Spondyloarthritis: An Integrated Analysis of Clinical Trials

INTRODUCTION

This integrated analysis of the phase 2/3 and phase 3 SELECT trials describes the safety profile of upadacitinib, an oral Janus kinase inhibitor, for up to 5 years of exposure across psoriatic arthritis (PsA), ankylosing spondylitis (AS), and non-radiographic axial spondyloarthritis (nr-axSpA) (including pooled axial spondyloarthritis [axSpA]).

METHODS

Safety data from five trials of upadacitinib in PsA (2 trials), AS (2 trials), and nr-axSpA (1 trial) were analyzed up to a data cut-off of August 15, 2022. One PsA study included adalimumab as an active comparator. Treatment-emergent adverse events (TEAEs) were summarized for PsA (pooled upadacitinib 15 mg once daily and adalimumab 40 mg biweekly), AS (pooled upadacitinib 15 mg), nr-axSpA (upadacitinib 15 mg), and pooled axSpA (pooled upadacitinib 15 mg from axSpA trials). TEAEs were reported as exposure-adjusted event rates per 100 patient-years (E/100 PY).

RESULTS

A total of 1789 patients (PsA, n = 907; AS, n = 596; nr-axSpA, n = 286) received ≥ 1 dose of upadacitinib 15 mg for 3689 PY of exposure or adalimumab (n = 429) for 1147 PY of exposure. Overall TEAEs and serious TEAEs were highest in PsA and numerically higher with upadacitinib versus adalimumab; rates were similar between AS and nr-axSpA. In PsA, higher rates of serious infection, herpes zoster (HZ), lymphopenia, and nonmelanoma skin cancer (NMSC) were observed with upadacitinib versus adalimumab. Rates of malignancy excluding NMSC, adjudicated major adverse cardiovascular events, and adjudicated venous thromboembolic events were comparable between upadacitinib and adalimumab in PsA and were similar across diseases.

CONCLUSION

Higher rates of serious infection, HZ, lymphopenia, and NMSC were observed with upadacitinib versus adalimumab in PsA; slightly elevated rates for most of these TEAEs were seen with upadacitinib in PsA versus axSpA. Upadacitinib 15 mg demonstrated a generally consistent safety profile across disease states with no new safety signals identified.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

SELECT-AXIS 1: NCT03178487; SELECT-AXIS 2: NCT04169373; SELECT-PsA 1: NCT03104400; SELECT-PsA 2: NCT03104374.

Understanding the experiences of PHC nurses in caring for older patients in the post-fifth wave of the COVID-19 pandemic: an exploratory qualitative study

Objective

To ensure the best possible care, the perspective of PHC nurse work experience during the COVID-19 pandemic should be considered when developing nursing care protocols for older patients who receive PHC services.

Method

This exploratory qualitative study was conducted with 18 nurses working continuously in PHC between the first and fifth waves of the pandemic. Semi-structured thematic interviews were undertaken. Qualitative thematic content analysis was conducted to identify and group the themes that emerged from the discourse. Interviews were transcribed and analyzed using thematic analysis.

Results

The first topic describes the nurses' experiences of physical and mental suffering in caring for older patients in response to the pandemic. The second topic covers the experience of reorganizing PHC work. The third topic focuses on the difficulties of caring for older patients. The final topic includes issues of support needs for nurses in PHC work.

Conclusion

The experience and understanding of PHC nurses in caring for older people during the COVID pandemic should lead to significant changes in the system of nursing care for geriatric patients and in the cooperative role within geriatric care specialist teams. Drawing on the experience of COVID-19, it is necessary to work on the weak points of PHC exposed by the pandemic in order to improve the quality of care and life for geriatric patients.

Treatment-Related Risk Factors for Adverse Outcomes of COVID-19 in Patients Treated for Lymphoid Malignancies in the Pre-Omicron Era-A Study of KroHem, the Croatian Group for Hematologic Diseases

Patients with lymphoid malignancies are at increased risk of death or prolonged infection due to COVID-19. Data on the influence of different antineoplastic treatment modalities on outcomes are conflicting. Anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies increase the risk of prolonged infection. It is unclear whether this risk is affected by the choice of the antibody (rituximab vs. obinutuzumab). To elucidate the role of antineoplastic therapy on COVID-19 outcomes, KroHem collected data on patients with lymphoid malignancies diagnosed with COVID-19 between October 2020 and April 2021. A total of 314 patients were identified, 75 untreated, 61 off treatment and 178 on treatment. The mortality rate in untreated and off-treatment patients was 15% and 16%; 9% and 10% had prolonged infection. In the on-treatment group, 3% were still prolonged positive at time of data collection, 62% recovered and 35% died; 42% had prolonged infection. Disease type, use of anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies, prior autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT) and line of treatment did not significantly affect mortality. Mortality was higher in older patients (p = 0.0078) and those treated with purine analogues (p = 0.012). Prolonged COVID-19 was significantly more frequent in patients treated with anti-CD20 monoclonal antibodies (p = 0.012), especially obinutuzumab, and purine analogues (p = 0.012). Age, prior ASCT and treatment line did not significantly affect risk of prolonged infection. These data suggest that increased age and use of purine analogues are main risk factors for increased mortality of COVID-19 in patients with lymphoid malignancies. Obinutuzumab further increases the risk of prolonged disease, but not of death, in comparison to rituximab. Epidemiological considerations should be taken into account when choosing the appropriate antineoplastic therapy for patients with lymphoid malignancies.

Disparities and effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine policies in three representative European countries

OBJECTIVE

The aim of this study was to examine the Coronavirus disease 2019(COVID-19) vaccine policies disparities and effectiveness in Germany, Denmark and Bulgaria, with a view to providing lessons for global vaccination and response to possible outbreak risks.

METHODS

This study analyzed big data through public information on the official websites of the Ministries of Health of the European Union, Germany, Denmark and Bulgaria and the official websites of the World Health Organization. We systematically summarized the COVID-19 vaccine policies of the three countries, and selected the following six indicators for cross-cutting vaccination comparisons: COVID-19 vaccine doses administered per 100 people, COVID-19 vaccination rate, the share of people with fully vaccinated, the share of people only partly vaccinated, cumulative confirmed COVID-19 cases per million, cumulative confirmed COVID-19 deaths per million. Meanwhile, we selected the following four indicators for measuring the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccine policy implementation: daily cases per million, daily deaths per million, the effective reproduction rate (Rt), the moving-average case fatality rate (CFR).

RESULTS

Although these three EU countries had the same start time for vaccination, and the COVID-19 vaccine supply was coordinated by the EU, there are still differences in vaccination priorities, vaccination types, and vaccine appointment methods. Compared to Germany and Denmark, Bulgaria had the least efficient vaccination efforts and the worst vaccination coverage, with a vaccination rate of just over 30% as of June 2023, and the maximum daily deaths per million since vaccination began in the country was more than three times that of the other two countries. From the perspective of implementation effect, vaccination has a certain effect on reducing infection rate and death rate, but the spread of new mutant strains obviously aggravates the severity of the epidemic and reduces the effectiveness of the vaccine. Among them, the spread of the Omicron mutant strain had the most serious impact on the three countries, showing an obvious epidemic peak.

CONCLUSIONS

Expanding vaccination coverage has played a positive role in reducing COVID-19 infection and mortality rates and stabilizing Rt. Priority vaccination strategies targeting older people and at-risk groups have been shown to be effective in reducing COVID-19 case severity and mortality in the population. However, the emergence and spread of new variant strains, and the relaxation of epidemic prevention policies, still led to multiple outbreaks peaking. In addition, vaccine hesitancy, mistrust in government and ill-prepared health systems are hampering vaccination efforts. Among the notable ones are divergent types of responses to vaccine safety issue could fuel mistrust and hesitancy around vaccination. At this stage, it is also necessary to continue to include COVID-19 vaccination in priority vaccination plans and promote booster vaccination to prevent severe illness and death. Improving the fairness of vaccine distribution and reducing the degree of vaccine hesitancy are the focus of future vaccination work.

The effect of the urban exposome on COVID-19 health outcomes: A systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The global severity of SARS-CoV-2 illness has been associated with various urban characteristics, including exposure to ambient air pollutants. This systematic review and meta-analysis aims to synthesize findings from ecological and non-ecological studies to investigate the impact of multiple urban-related features on a variety of COVID-19 health outcomes.

METHODS

On December 5, 2022, PubMed was searched to identify all types of observational studies that examined one or more urban exposome characteristics in relation to various COVID-19 health outcomes such as infection severity, the need for hospitalization, ICU admission, COVID pneumonia, and mortality.

RESULTS

A total of 38 non-ecological and 241 ecological studies were included in this review. Non-ecological studies highlighted the significant effects of population density, urbanization, and exposure to ambient air pollutants, particularly PM2.5. The meta-analyses revealed that a 1 μg/m3 increase in PM2.5 was associated with a higher likelihood of COVID-19 hospitalization (pooled OR 1.08 (95% CI:1.02-1.14)) and death (pooled OR 1.06 (95% CI:1.03-1.09)). Ecological studies, in addition to confirming the findings of non-ecological studies, also indicated that higher exposure to nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), sulphur dioxide (SO2), and carbon monoxide (CO), as well as lower ambient temperature, humidity, ultraviolet (UV) radiation, and less green and blue space exposure, were associated with increased COVID-19 morbidity and mortality.

CONCLUSION

This systematic review has identified several key vulnerability features related to urban areas in the context of the recent COVID-19 pandemic. The findings underscore the importance of improving policies related to urban exposures and implementing measures to protect individuals from these harmful environmental stressors.

Mortality rate and predictors of COVID-19 inpatients in Ethiopia: a systematic review and meta-analysis

Introduction

The severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is an extremely rare virus that devastates the economy and claims human lives. Despite countries' urgent and tenacious public health responses to the COVID-19 pandemic, the disease is killing a large number of people. The results of prior studies have not been used by policymakers and programmers due to the presence of conflicting results. As a result, this study was conducted to fill the knowledge gap and develop a research agenda.

Objective

This study aimed to assess the mortality rate and predictors of COVID-19 hospitalized patients in Ethiopia.

Methods

Electronic databases were searched to find articles that were conducted using a retrospective cohort study design and published in English up to 2022. The data were extracted using a Microsoft Excel spreadsheet and exported to StataTM version 17.0 for further analysis. The presence of heterogeneity was assessed and presented using a forest plot. The subgroup analysis, meta-regression, and publication bias were computed to identify the source of heterogeneity. The pool COVID-19 mortality rate and its predictors were calculated and identified using the random effects meta-analysis model, respectively. The significant predictors identified were reported using a relative risk ratio and 95% confidence interval (CI).

Results

Seven studies with 31,498 participants were included. The pooled mortality rate of COVID-19 was 9.13 (95% CI: 5.38, 12.88) per 1,000 person-days of mortality-free observation. Those study participants who had chronic kidney disease had 2.29 (95% CI: 1.14, 4.60) times higher chance of experiencing mortality than their corresponding counterparts, diabetics had 2.14 (95% CI: 1.22, 3.76), HIV patients had 2.98 (95% CI: 1.26, 7.03), hypertensive patients had 1.63 (95% CI: 1.43, 1.85), and smoker had 2.35 (95% CI: 1.48, 3.73).

Conclusion

COVID-19 mortality rate was high to tackle the epidemic of the disease in Ethiopia. COVID-19 patients with chronic renal disease, diabetes, hypertension, smoking, and HIV were the significant predictors of mortality among COVID-19 patients in Ethiopia. COVID-19 patients with chronic diseases and comorbidities need special attention, close follow-up, and care from all stakeholders.

Genomic Epidemiology and Lineage Dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Bulgaria: Insights from a Three-Year Pandemic Analysis

The COVID-19 pandemic caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has brought about significant challenges worldwide. In this study, we present a comprehensive analysis of the genomic epidemiology and lineage dynamics of SARS-CoV-2 in Bulgaria over a three-year period. Through extensive genomic sequencing and data analysis, we investigated the evolution of the virus, the emergence of variants of concern (VOCs), and their impact on the country's pandemic trajectory. We also assessed the relationship between viral diversity and COVID-19 morbidity and mortality in Bulgaria. Our findings shed light on the temporal and spatial distribution of SARS-CoV-2 lineages and provide crucial insights into the dynamics of the pandemic in the country. The interplay between international travel and viral transmission plays a significant role in the emergence and dissemination of different SARS-CoV-2 variants. The observed proportions of exportation to various continents provide insights into the potential pathways through which these lineages spread globally. Understanding the genomic epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2 in Bulgaria is essential for formulating targeted public health strategies, enhancing vaccination efforts, and effectively managing future outbreaks.

Which Factors Were Related to the Number of COVID-19 Cases in the 2022/2023 Season Compared to the 2021/2022 Season in Europe?

The number of COVID-19 cases was greater in early autumn 2022 in contrast to in autumn 2021. Therefore, we decided to examine the factors that may have affected differences in the number of COVID-19 cases between the time periods 2021/2022 and 2022/2023 with consideration of the occurrence of influenza. In this cross-sectional study, we conducted a multiple factor analysis using data from publicly available databases for weeks 35-14 in 2022/2023 and 2021/2022 for Austria, Germany, Greece, Italy, and Slovenia. In the 2021/2022 season, the analyzed countries had similar profiles and were characterized by restrictions, health system policies, and SARS-CoV-2 variants, such as Alpha, Beta, Delta, Kappa, Eta, as well as Omicron sublineages (BA.1, BA.2), which were positively correlated with the number of new cases of COVID-19 per million people. However, in the 2022/2023 season, the analyzed countries were described by groups of variables corresponding to vaccination, influenza, the number of flights, and the Omicron SARS-CoV-2 subvariant. In summary, crucial factors correlated with the increasing of number of COVID-19 cases in the 2021/2022 season were the presence of dominant SARS-CoV-2 variants as well as the lifting of restrictions and strict health system policies.