Excess mortality and the COVID-19 pandemic: causes of death and social inequalities

Excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in low-and lower-middle-income countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Although the COVID-19 pandemic claimed a great deal of lives, it is still unclear how it affected mortality in low- and lower-middle-income countries (LLMICs). This review summarized the available literature on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in LLMICs, including methods, sources of data, and potential contributing factors that might have influenced excess mortality.

METHODS

We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis on excess mortality during the COVID-19 pandemic in LLMICs in line with the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis (PRISMA) 2020 guidelines We searched PubMed, Embase, Web of Science, Cochrane Library, Google Scholar, and Scopus. We included studies published from 2019 onwards with a non-COVID-19 period of at least one year as a comparator. The meta-analysis included studies reporting data on population size, as well as observed and expected deaths. We used the Mantel-Haenszel method to estimate the pooled risk ratio with 95% confidence intervals. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (ID: CRD42022378267).

RESULTS

The review covered 29 countries, with 10 countries included in the meta-analysis. The pooled meta-analysis included 1,405,128,717 individuals, for which 2,152,474 deaths were expected, and 3,555,880 deaths were reported. Calculated excess mortality was 100.3 deaths per 100,000 population per year, with an excess risk of death of 1.65 (95% CI: 1.649, 1.655, p < 0.001). The data sources used in the studies included civil registration systems, surveys, public cemeteries, funeral counts, obituary notifications, burial site imaging, and demographic surveillance systems. The primary techniques used to estimate excess mortality were statistical forecast modelling and geospatial analysis. One out of the 24 studies found higher excess mortality in urban settings.

CONCLUSION

Our findings demonstrate that excess mortality in LLMICs during the pandemic was substantial. However, estimates of excess mortality are uncertain due to relatively poor data. Understanding the drivers of excess mortality, will require more research using various techniques and data sources.

Excess Deaths During the COVID-19 Pandemic in Southern Iran: Estimating the Absolute Count and Relative Risk Using Ecological Data

OBJECTIVES

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic led to increased mortality rates. To assess this impact, this ecological study aimed to estimate the excess death counts in southern Iran.

METHODS

The study obtained weekly death counts by linking the National Death Registry and Medical Care Monitoring Center repositories. The P-score was initially estimated using a simple method that involved calculating the difference between the observed and expected death counts. The interrupted time series analysis was then used to calculate the mean relative risk (RR) of death during the first year of the pandemic.

RESULTS

Our study found that there were 5571 excess deaths from all causes (P-score=33.29%) during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, with 48.03% of these deaths directly related to COVID-19. The pandemic was found to increase the risk of death from all causes (RR, 1.26; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.19 to 1.33), as well as in specific age groups such as those aged 35-49 (RR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.32), 50-64 (RR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.28 to 1.49), and ≥65 (RR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.12 to 1.32) years old. Furthermore, there was an increased risk of death from cardiovascular diseases (RR, 1.17; 95% CI, 1.11 to 1.22).

CONCLUSIONS

There was a 26% increase in the death count in southern Iran during the COVID-19 pandemic. More than half of these excess deaths were not directly related to COVID-19, but rather other causes, with cardiovascular diseases being a major contributor.

Excess Mortality During 2020 in Spain: The Most Affected Population, Age, and Educational Group by the COVID-19 Pandemic

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this work was to study mortality increase in Spain during the first and second academic semesters of 2020, coinciding with the first 2 waves of the Covid-19 pandemic; by sex, age, and education.

METHODS

An observational study was carried out, using linked populations and deaths' data from 2017 to 2020. The mortality rates from all causes and leading causes other than Covid-19 during each semester of 2020, compared to the 2017-2019 averages for the same semester, was also estimated. Mortality rate ratios (MRR) and differences were used for comparison.

RESULTS

All-cause mortality rates increased in 2020 compared to pre-covid, except among working-age, (25-64 years) highly-educated women. Such increases were larger in lower-educated people between the working age range, in both 2020 semesters, but not at other ages. In the elderly, the MMR in the first semester in women and men were respectively, 1.14, and 1.25 among lower-educated people, and 1.28 and 1.23 among highly-educated people. In the second semester, the MMR were 1.12 in both sexes among lower-educated people and 1.13 in women and 1.16 in men among highly-educated people.

CONCLUSION

Lower-educated people within working age and highly-educated people at older ages showed the greatest increase in all-cause mortality in 2020, compared to the pre-pandemic period.

The impact of COVID-19 on life expectancy across socioeconomic groups in Denmark

BACKGROUND

Denmark was one of the few countries that experienced an increase in life expectancy in 2020, and one of the few to see a decrease in 2021. Because COVID-19 mortality is associated with socioeconomic status (SES), we hypothesize that certain subgroups of the Danish population experienced changes in life expectancy in 2020 and 2021 that differed from the country overall. We aim to quantify life expectancy in Denmark in 2020 and 2021 by SES and compare this to recent trends in life expectancy (2014-2019).

METHODS

We used Danish registry data from 2014 to 2021 for all individuals aged 30+. We classified the study population into SES groups using income quartiles and calculated life expectancy at age 30 by year, sex, and SES, and the differences in life expectancy from 2019 to 2020 and 2020 to 2021. We compared these changes to the average 1-year changes from 2014 to 2019 with 95% confidence intervals. Lastly, we decomposed these changes by age and cause of death distinguishing seven causes, including COVID-19, and a residual category.

RESULTS

We observed a mortality gradient in life expectancy changes across SES groups in both pandemic years. Among women, those of higher SES experienced a larger increase in life expectancy in 2020 and a smaller decrease in 2021 compared to those of lower SES. Among men, those of higher SES experienced an increase in life expectancy in both 2020 and 2021, while those of lower SES experienced a decrease in 2021. The impact of COVID-19 mortality on changes in life expectancy in 2020 was counterbalanced by improvements in non-COVID-19 mortality, especially driven by cancer and cardiovascular mortality. However, in 2021, non-COVID-19 mortality contributed negatively even for causes as cardiovascular mortality that has generally a positive impact on life expectancy changes, resulting in declines for most SES groups.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID-19 mortality disproportionally affected those of lower SES and exacerbated existing social inequalities in Denmark. We conclude that in health emergencies, particular attention should be paid to those who are least socially advantaged to avoid widening the already existing mortality gap with those of higher SES. This research contributes to the discussion on social inequalities in mortality in high-income countries.

A comprehensive analysis of all-cause and cause-specific excess deaths in 30 countries during 2020

The impact of COVID-19 on mortality from specific causes of death remains poorly understood. This study analysed cause-of-death data provided by the World Health Organization from 2011 to 2019 to estimate excess deaths in 2020 in 30 countries. Over-dispersed Poisson regression models were used to estimate the number of deaths that would have been expected if the pandemic had not occurred, separately for men and women. The models included year and age categories to account for temporal trends and changes in size and age structure of the populations. Excess deaths were calculated by subtracting observed deaths from expected ones. Our analysis revealed significant excess deaths from ischemic heart diseases (IHD) (in 10 countries), cerebrovascular diseases (CVD) (in 10 countries), and diabetes (in 19 countries). The majority of countries experienced excess mortality greater than 10%, including Mexico (+ 38·8% for IHD, + 34·9% for diabetes), Guatemala (+ 30·0% for IHD, + 10·2% for CVD, + 39·7% for diabetes), Cuba (+ 18·8% for diabetes), Brazil (+ 12·9% for diabetes), the USA (+ 15·1% for diabetes), Slovenia (+ 33·8% for diabetes), Poland (+ 30·2% for IHD, + 19·5% for CVD, + 26 1% for diabetes), Estonia (+ 26·9% for CVD, + 34·7% for diabetes), Bulgaria (+ 22·8% for IHD, + 11·4% for diabetes), Spain (+ 19·7% for diabetes), Italy (+ 18·0% for diabetes), Lithuania (+ 17·6% for diabetes), Finland (+ 13·2% for diabetes) and Georgia (+ 10·7% for IHD, + 19·0% for diabetes). In 2020, 22 out of 30 countries had a significant increase in total mortality. Some of this excess was attributed to COVID-19, but a substantial increase was also observed in deaths attributed to cardiovascular diseases and diabetes.

Evaluation of the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on the all-cause, cause-specific mortality, YLL, and life expectancy in the first 2 years in an Iranian population-an ecological study

Background

COVID-19 pandemic resulted in excess mortality and changed the trends of causes of death worldwide. In this study, we investigate the all-cause and cause-specific deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2022) compared to the baseline (2018-2020), considering age groups, gender, place of residence, and place of death in south Khorasan, east of Iran.

Methods

The present ecological study was conducted using South Khorasan Province death certificate data during 2018-2022. The number of death and all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates (per 100,000 people) were calculated and compared based on age groups, place of residence, place of death, and gender before (2018-2020) and during the COVID-19 pandemic (2020-2022). We also calculated total and cause-specific years of life lost (YLL) to death and gender-specific life expectancy at birth.

Results

A total of 7,766 deaths occurred from March 21, 2018, to March 20, 2020 (pre-pandemic) and 9,984 deaths from March 21, 2020, to March 20, 2022 (pandemic). The mean age at death increased by about 2 years during the COVID-19 pandemic. The mortality rate was significantly increased in the age groups 20 years and older. The most excess deaths were recorded in men, Aged more than 60 years, death at home, and the rural population. Mortality due to COVID-19 accounted for nearly 17% of deaths. The highest increase in mortality rate was observed due to endocrine and Cardiovascular diseases. Mortality rates due to the genitourinary system and Certain conditions originating in the perinatal period have decreased during the COVID-19 pandemic. The major causes of death during the pandemic were Cardiovascular diseases, COVID-19, cancer, chronic respiratory diseases, accidents, and endocrine diseases in both sexes, in rural and urban areas. Years of life lost (YLL) increased by nearly 15.0%, which was mostly due to COVID-19, life expectancy at birth has steadily declined from 2018 to202 for both genders (from 78.4 to 75).

Conclusion

In this study, we found that All-cause mortality increased by 25.5% during the COVID-19 pandemic, especially in men, older adult, Rural residents, and those who died at home (outside the hospital). Considering that the most common causes of death during the COVID-19 pandemic are also non-communicable diseases. It is necessary to pay attention to non-communicable diseases even during the pandemic of a serious infectious disease like COVID-19. The years of life lost also increased during the COVID-19 pandemic, which is necessary to pay attention to all age groups, especially the causes of death in young people. In most developing countries, the first cause of death of these groups is accidents.

Did the socioeconomic inequalities in avoidable and unavoidable mortality worsen during the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic in Korea?

OBJECTIVES

This study examined changes in socioeconomic inequalities in mortality in Korea before and after the outbreak of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

METHODS

From 2017 to 2020, age-standardized mortality rates were calculated for all-cause deaths, avoidable deaths (preventable deaths, treatable deaths), and unavoidable deaths using National Health Insurance claims data and Statistics Korea's cause of death data. In addition, the slope index of inequality (SII) and the relative index of inequality (RII) by six income levels (Medical Aid beneficiary group and quintile of health insurance premiums) were computed to analyze the magnitude and change of mortality inequalities.

RESULTS

All-cause and avoidable mortality rates decreased steadily between 2017 and 2020, whereas unavoidable mortality remained relatively stable. In the case of mortality inequalities, the disparity in all-cause mortality between income classes was exacerbated in 2020 compared to 2019, with the SII increasing from 185.44 to 189.22 and the RII increasing from 3.99 to 4.29. In particular, the preventable and unavoidable mortality rates showed an apparent increase in inequality, as both the SII (preventable: 91.31 to 92.01, unavoidable: 69.99 to 75.38) and RII (preventable: 3.42 to 3.66, unavoidable: 5.02 to 5.89) increased.

CONCLUSIONS

In the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic, mortality inequality continued to increase, although there was no sign of exacerbation. It is necessary to continuously evaluate mortality inequalities, particularly for preventable and unavoidable deaths.

How Did the Two Years of the COVID-19 Pandemic Affect the Outcomes of the Patients with Inflammatory Rheumatic Diseases in Lithuania?

Background and objectives: the COVID-19 pandemic globally caused more than 18 million deaths over the period of 2020-2021. Although inflammatory rheumatic diseases (RD) are generally associated with premature mortality, it is not yet clear whether RD patients are at a greater risk for COVID-19-related mortality. The aim of our study was to evaluate mortality and causes of death in a retrospective inflammatory RD patient cohort during the COVID-19 pandemic years. Methods: We identified patients with a first-time diagnosis of inflammatory RD and followed them up during the pandemic years of 2020-2021. Death rates, and sex- and age-standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) were calculated for the prepandemic and pandemic periods. Results: We obtained data from 11,636 patients that had been newly diagnosed with inflammatory RD and followed up until the end of 2021 or their death. The mean duration of the follow-up was 5.5 years. In total, 1531 deaths occurred between 2013 and 2021. The prevailing causes of death in the prepandemic period were cardiovascular diseases, neoplasms, and diseases of the respiratory system. In the pandemic years, cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms remained the two most common causes of death, with COVID-19 in third place. The SMR of the total RD cohort was 0.83. This trend was observed in rheumatoid arthritis and spondyloarthropathy patients. The SMR in the group of connective-tissue diseases and vasculitis was higher at 0.93, but did not differ from that of the general population. The excess of deaths in the RD cohort during the pandemic period was negative (-27.2%), meaning that RD patients endured the pandemic period better than the general population did. Conclusions: The COVID-19 pandemic did not influence the mortality of RD patients. Strict lockdown measures, social distancing, and early vaccination were the main factors that resulted in reduced mortality in this cohort during the pandemic years.