Application of discrete event simulation in health care: a systematic review

Supply-side and demand-side factors affecting allopathic primary care service delivery in low-income and middle-income country cities

Most people in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) now live in cities, as opposed to rural areas where access to care and provider choice is limited. Urban health-care provision is organised on very different patterns to those of rural care. We synthesise global evidence to show that health-care clinics are plentiful and easily accessible in LMIC cities and that they are seldom overcrowded. The costs that patients incur when they seek care are highly variable and driven mostly by drugs and diagnostics. We show that citizens have agency, often bypassing cheaper facilities to access preferred providers. Primary care service delivery in cities is thus best characterised as a market with a diverse range of private and public providers, where patients make active choices based on price, quality, and access. However, this market does not deliver high-quality consultations on average and does not provide continuity or integration of services for preventive care or long-term conditions. Since prices play a key role in accessing care, the most vulnerable groups of the urban population often remain unprotected.

The impact of participating in basic medical insurance on depression scores of rural middle-aged and older adults-an empirical analysis based on CFPS data

Introduction

According to the latest research by the World Health Organization (WHO), the disease burden caused by depression has risen to the second place in the world, and will rise to the first place by 2030. Currently, there are approximately 90 million individuals with depression in China, with rural middle-aged and older adults facing higher risks due to factors such as weak economic foundations and poor health. This study empirically examines the effect of basic medical insurance in reducing depression scores (measured by the CES-D scale) among rural middle-aged and older adults and validates its underlying mechanisms.

Methods

Using panel data from the China Family Panel Studies (CFPS) in 2012 and 2018, this study constructs a two-way fixed effects model to analyze the relationship between basic medical insurance and depression scores. Heterogeneity analysis was conducted through grouped regression, while robustness checks were performed using panel Probit regression and Quantile regression. Additionally, moderation and mediation effect models were employed to analyze the mechanisms through which basic medical insurance reduces depression scores in this population.

Results

The study finds that basic medical insurance has a positive effect on reducing depression scores among rural middle-aged and older adults. Grouped regression results reveal heterogeneity across subgroups, with weaker improvement effects observed among subgroups aged over 60, females, and those with spouses. By introducing an interaction term between insurance enrollment and chronic disease status into the baseline model, the study identifies a moderating effect of chronic disease on the depression-reducing impact of basic medical insurance. Mediation analysis using the three-step method and bootstrap approach demonstrates that household income per capita partially mediates this effect. Robustness checks support the main findings, and quantile regression indicates that the effect of basic medical insurance is most pronounced among individuals with mild depression or near-threshold depression scores.

Discussion

The research contributes to explaining the dynamic relationship between basic medical insurance and depression among rural middle-aged and older adults, enriching theoretical studies on the impact of basic medical insurance on mental health in this population. The findings hold significant theoretical implications.

Research-informed decision-making for empowering integrated care system development: Co-creating innovative solutions to facilitate enhanced service provision

Integrated care has emerged as a vital approach to addressing complex health and social care challenges through attempting to foster collaborative provision in healthcare settings. Yet as demand for services often outstrips supply, hospitals, as anchor institutions in communities, are constantly seeking to innovate to align their resources with needs and policy priorities. As hospitals are often viewed as a conduit for creating and embracing innovation to enhance organisational performance, this paper outlines one such innovation, which was co-created as a partnership between a university and hospital to help it with its transition to an integrated care system (ICS). By developing a full hospital system model in partnership not only with hospital stakeholders but also out-of-hospital services - such as community and primary care - for an integrated care model, this study helps to translate an innovative model into practice at an ICS level. To achieve this, decision support tools (DSTs) were used to foster evidence-based assessment of the hospital system, and key opinion leaders (KOLs) were provided with a versatile toolset with which to optimise workforce productivity and deployment, innovate service provision, and enhance community health.

Application of Discrete Event Simulation Models for COPD Management: A Systematic Review

Background

This systematic review aims to comprehensively assess the current application of discrete event simulation (DES) models in managing chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). By synthesizing and analyzing multiple studies, we incorporate the latest evidence, evaluate research quality, identify gaps, and provide recommendations for the future application of DES in COPD management.

Methods

We systematically searched six electronic databases including PubMed, Web of Science, Embase, Cochrane, Econlit, and China National Knowledge Infrastructure (CNKI) for articles published up to August 22, 2024. Reference lists of the included articles were also manually checked. Depending on the study type, we assessed quality using either the Consolidated Health Economic Evaluation Reporting Standards (CHEERS) 2022 checklist or the International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR) Practice Guidelines.

Results

Out of the 273 records identified, nine studies met the inclusion criteria. All of these studies focused on health economic evaluations using DES in COPD management, and were conducted in high-income countries. The studies were divided into three groups based on the modeling systems they used: cost-effectiveness analyses of different pharmacological treatments (n=3), economic evaluations of case detection strategies (n=3), and assessments of various interventions on COPD healthcare services (n=3). All studies reported model validation methods (n=9); however, only two studies performed subgroup analysis.

Conclusion

This review highlights the current use of DES in COPD management and suggests avenues for future research and resource allocation to enhance the effectiveness of COPD interventions.

A data-driven simulation approach to quantify the effect of group counseling on system performance of college counseling centers

Objective: To investigate the effectiveness, from a system's perspective, of offering group counseling options in college counseling centers. Methods: We achieve this through a data-driven simulation-based approach with the aim of providing administrators with a quantitative tool that informs their decision-making process. Results: Our simulation experiments reveal that offering group counseling options without resource reallocation does not have the desired positive impact on the system's performance. However, with resource reallocation, our results demonstrate that the introduction of group counseling options can significantly improve the performance of the system by as much as 40%. Conclusions: Group counseling options, coupled with proper resource reallocation strategies, are effective in reducing access time of first-time patients by as much as 40%. The effect of group counseling is highly dependent on both the number of offered groups as well as their scheduling policy. Scheduling policies have to be scrutinized in light of their resulting group waiting time and resource-utilization efficiency.

Modelling epidemiological and economics processes - the case of cervical cancer

Different types of mathematical models can be used to forecast the development of diseases as well as associated costs and analyse the cost-effectiveness of interventions. The set of models available to assess these parameters, reach from simple independent equations to highly complex agent-based simulations. For many diseases, it is simple to distinguish between infectious diseases and chronic-degenerative diseases. For infectious diseases, dynamic models are most appropriate because they allow for feedback from the number of infected to the number of new infections, while for the latter Markov models are more appropriate since this feedback is not required. However, for some diseases, the aforementioned distinction is not as clear. Cervical cancer, for instance, is caused by a sexually transmitted virus, and therefore falls under the definition of an infectious disease. However, once infected, the condition can progress to a chronic disease. Consequently, cervical cancer could be considered an infectious or a chronic-degenerative disease, depending on the stage of infection. In this paper, we will analyse the applicability of different mathematical models for epidemiological and economic processes focusing on cervical cancer. For this purpose, we will present the basic structure of different models. We will then conduct a literature analysis of the mathematical models used to predict the spread of cervical cancer. Based on these findings we will draw conclusions about which models can be used for which purpose and which disease. We conclude that each type of model has its advantages and disadvantages, but the choice of model type often seems arbitrary. In the case of cervical cancer, homogenous Markov models seem appropriate if a cohort of newly infected is followed for a shorter period, for instance, to assess the impact of screening programs. For long-term consequences, such as the impact of a vaccination program, a feedback loop from former infections to the future likelihood of infections is required. This can be done using system dynamics or inhomogeneous Markov models. Discrete event or agent-based simulations can be used in the case of cervical cancer when small cohorts or specific characteristics of individuals are required. However, these models require more effort than Markov or System Dynamics models.

In Silico Evaluation of Algorithm-Based Clinical Decision Support Systems: Protocol for a Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

Integrating algorithm-based clinical decision support (CDS) systems poses significant challenges in evaluating their actual clinical value. Such CDS systems are traditionally assessed via controlled but resource-intensive clinical trials.

OBJECTIVE

This paper presents a review protocol for preimplementation in silico evaluation methods to enable broadened impact analysis under simulated environments before clinical trials.

METHODS

We propose a scoping review protocol that follows an enhanced Arksey and O'Malley framework and PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Reviews) guidelines to investigate the scope and research gaps in the in silico evaluation of algorithm-based CDS models-specifically CDS decision-making end points and objectives, evaluation metrics used, and simulation paradigms used to assess potential impacts. The databases searched are PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO, Cochrane, IEEEXplore, Web of Science, and arXiv. A 2-stage screening process identified pertinent articles. The information extracted from articles was iteratively refined. The review will use thematic, trend, and descriptive analyses to meet scoping aims.

RESULTS

We conducted an automated search of the databases above in May 2023, with most title and abstract screenings completed by November 2023 and full-text screening extended from December 2023 to May 2024. Concurrent charting and full-text analysis were carried out, with the final analysis and manuscript preparation set for completion in July 2024. Publication of the review results is targeted from July 2024 to February 2025. As of April 2024, a total of 21 articles have been selected following a 2-stage screening process; these will proceed to data extraction and analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

We refined our data extraction strategy through a collaborative, multidisciplinary approach, planning to analyze results using thematic analyses to identify approaches to in silico evaluation. Anticipated findings aim to contribute to developing a unified in silico evaluation framework adaptable to various clinical workflows, detailing clinical decision-making characteristics, impact measures, and reusability of methods. The study's findings will be published and presented in forums combining artificial intelligence and machine learning, clinical decision-making, and health technology impact analysis. Ultimately, we aim to bridge the development-deployment gap through in silico evaluation-based potential impact assessments.

INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID)

DERR1-10.2196/63875.

Evaluating the impact of COVID-19 protection measures and staff absence on radiotherapy practice: A simulation study

BACKGROUND

Radiotherapy practice for cancer treatment is resource-intensive and demands optimised processes for patient throughput while guaranteeing the quality and safety of the therapy. With the COVID-19 pandemic, ad-hoc changes in the operation of radiotherapy centres became necessary to protect patients and staff. This simulation study aimed to quantify the impact of designated COVID-19 protection measures and pandemic-related staff absence on patient waiting times and throughput. The approach also enables analysis of protective measures and process adjustments for future business disruptions.

METHODS

A discrete event simulation model of a stand-alone radiotherapy centre was developed and used to analyse changes in patient flow when implementing COVID-19 protection measures and experiencing staff absence. The simulation results support business continuity planning and decision-making in radiotherapy. In total, twenty-one scenarios in three categories were analysed. Category 1 scenarios investigated the effect of healthcare staff and equipment shortfalls. Category 2 scenarios simulated the impact of additional COVID-19 protection measures at low COVID-19 incidence rates, while category 3 scenarios evaluated the changes at high incidence rates.

RESULTS

The simulation results suggested increased patient waiting times when staff is absent. Most scenarios of the three categories behave similarly despite increased patient waiting times due to COVID-19 protection measures in categories 2 and 3. The most significant increase in patient waiting times occurs when only two radiation therapists are available. The absence of a linear accelerator for cancer treatment also leads to increased waiting times. Scenarios where one administrator is absent show the longest average and maximum waiting times for low COVID-19 incidence rates. COVID-19 protection measures reduce patient throughput. In all scenarios, with reduced patient throughput, follow-up radiation appointments were affected.

CONCLUSIONS

The simulated scenario results suggest that appropriate staffing of the radiotherapy centre during a pandemic crisis is essential and that staff absence can lead to prolonged patient waiting times and reduced throughput with severe continuity of care consequences. The simulation model demonstrated that centre administrators are a bottleneck if they must perform COVID-19 protection measures in addition to their administrative duties. The effect could be mitigated by outsourcing COVID-19 protection tasks to external service providers or other centre staff.

Digital Twins for Clinical and Operational Decision-Making: Scoping Review

BACKGROUND

The health care industry must align with new digital technologies to respond to existing and new challenges. Digital twins (DTs) are an emerging technology for digital transformation and applied intelligence that is rapidly attracting attention. DTs are virtual representations of products, systems, or processes that interact bidirectionally in real time with their actual counterparts. Although DTs have diverse applications from personalized care to treatment optimization, misconceptions persist regarding their definition and the extent of their implementation within health systems.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to review DT applications in health care, particularly for clinical decision-making (CDM) and operational decision-making (ODM). It provides a definition and framework for DTs by exploring their unique elements and characteristics. Then, it assesses the current advances and extent of DT applications to support CDM and ODM using the defined DT characteristics.

METHODS

We conducted a scoping review following the PRISMA-ScR (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses extension for Scoping Reviews) protocol. We searched multiple databases, including PubMed, MEDLINE, and Scopus, for original research articles describing DT technologies applied to CDM and ODM in health systems. Papers proposing only ideas or frameworks or describing DT capabilities without experimental data were excluded. We collated several available types of information, for example, DT characteristics, the environment that DTs were tested within, and the main underlying method, and used descriptive statistics to analyze the synthesized data.

RESULTS

Out of 5537 relevant papers, 1.55% (86/5537) met the predefined inclusion criteria, all published after 2017. The majority focused on CDM (75/86, 87%). Mathematical modeling (24/86, 28%) and simulation techniques (17/86, 20%) were the most frequently used methods. Using International Classification of Diseases, 10th Revision coding, we identified 3 key areas of DT applications as follows: factors influencing diseases of the circulatory system (14/86, 16%); health status and contact with health services (12/86, 14%); and endocrine, nutritional, and metabolic diseases (10/86, 12%). Only 16 (19%) of 86 studies tested the developed system in a real environment, while the remainder were evaluated in simulated settings. Assessing the studies against defined DT characteristics reveals that the developed systems have yet to materialize the full capabilities of DTs.

CONCLUSIONS

This study provides a comprehensive review of DT applications in health care, focusing on CDM and ODM. A key contribution is the development of a framework that defines important elements and characteristics of DTs in the context of related literature. The DT applications studied in this paper reveal encouraging results that allow us to envision that, in the near future, they will play an important role not only in the diagnosis and prevention of diseases but also in other areas, such as efficient clinical trial design, as well as personalized and optimized treatments.

The nhppp package for simulating non-homogeneous Poisson point processes in R

We introduce the nhppp package for simulating events from one dimensional non-homogeneous Poisson point processes (NHPPPs) in R fast and with a small memory footprint. We developed it to facilitate the sampling of event times in discrete event and statistical simulations. The package's functions are based on three algorithms that provably sample from a target NHPPP: the time-transformation of a homogeneous Poisson process (of intensity one) via the inverse of the integrated intensity function; the generation of a Poisson number of order statistics from a fixed density function; and the thinning of a majorizing NHPPP via an acceptance-rejection scheme. We present a study of numerical accuracy and time performance of the algorithms. We illustrate use with simple reproducible examples.

Nurse-led framework to improve the safety and quality of residential aged care (HIRAID® Aged Care): protocol for a stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

The health issues experienced by older people can often be severe and complex, and an increasing number are using residential aged care services to meet their care needs. High-quality nursing care is fundamental to the health and safety of aged care residents and is contingent on nurses' accurate assessment, informed decision-making, and delivery of timely interventions. However, the role of the aged care nurse is often challenging, impeded by factors such as understaffing, high workloads, and a lack of access to clinical infrastructure and resources. When these challenges mount, residents are put at greater risk of adverse outcomes, such as avoidable clinical deterioration and hospital transfers. This study describes the adaptation and implementation of the emergency nursing framework, HIRAID® (History including Infection risk, Red Flags, Assessment, Interventions, Diagnostics, reassessment, communication and plan)-a tool to assist nurses' assessment, decision-making and care in residential aged care.

METHODS

The HIRAID® framework will be adapted for residential aged care using a real-time Delphi and panel of aged care and nursing experts. The co-designed HIRAID® Aged Care framework will be trialled in 23 residential aged care homes in Sydney, Australia, in a modified stepped-wedge cluster randomised controlled trial design. All homes will be randomised into one of four clusters. Outcomes of interest include the rate of clinical deterioration events resulting from nurses' actions, the rate of hospital transfers determined to be inappropriate, performance against the national mandatory aged care quality indicators, resident satisfaction with care, nurse and medical staff satisfaction with communication, and the quality of nursing documentation. These outcomes will be evaluated using a combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis of routinely collected resident data, expert assessments of facility documentation events against validated criteria, and pre- and post-intervention surveys of residents, family carers, nurses, and medical staff.

DISCUSSION

This protocol describes a pragmatic trial that aims to translate an evidence-based framework from the emergency care context into residential aged care. The adapted HIRAID® Aged Care framework will be the first of its kind to standardise and guide holistic nursing assessment, decision-making, and documentation in residential aged care in Australia.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

This research has been approved by the Western Sydney Local Health District Human Research Ethics Committee: 2023/ETH00523. A waiver of consent has been approved to access resident health data and nursing documentation at each participating site.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trial Registry, ACTRN12623000481673. Registered 12 May 2023.

PROTOCOL VERSION

Version 1.0 6 February 2024.

Deep Inspiration Breath Hold in Left-Sided Breast Radiotherapy: A Balance Between Side Effects and Costs

Background

Deep inspiration breath hold (DIBH) is an effective technique for reducing heart exposure during radiotherapy for left-sided breast cancer. Despite its benefits, cost considerations and its impact on workflow remain significant barriers to widespread adoption.

Objectives

This study aimed to assess the cost-effectiveness of DIBH and compare its operational, financial, and clinical outcomes with free breathing (FB) in breast cancer treatment.

Methods

Treatment plans for 100 patients with left-sided breast cancer were generated using both DIBH and FB techniques. Dosimetric data, including the average mean heart dose, were calculated for each technique and used to estimate the cardiotoxicity of radiotherapy. A state-transition microsimulation model based on SCORE2 (Systematic Coronary Risk Evaluation) algorithms projected the effects of DIBH on cardiovascular outcomes and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Costs were calculated from a provider perspective using time-driven activity-based costing, applying a willingness-to-pay threshold of €40,000 for cost-effectiveness assessment. A discrete event simulation model assessed the impacts of DIBH vs FB on throughput and waiting times in the radiotherapy workflow.

Results

In the base case scenario, DIBH was associated with an absolute risk reduction of 1.72% (95% CI: 1.67%-1.76%) in total cardiovascular events and 0.69% (95% CI: 0.67%-0.72%) in fatal cardiovascular events over 20 years. Additionally, DIBH was estimated to provide an incremental 0.04 QALYs (95% CI: 0.05-0.05) per left-sided breast cancer patient over the same time period. However, DIBH increased treatment times, reducing maximum achievable throughput by 12.48% (95% CI: 12.36%-12.75%) and increasing costs by €617 per left-sided breast cancer patient (95% CI: €615-€619). The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio was €14,023 per QALY.

Conclusions

Despite time investments, DIBH is cost-effective in the Belgian population. The growing adoption of DIBH may benefit long-term cardiovascular health in breast cancer survivors.

Emulator-Based Bayesian Calibration of the CISNET Colorectal Cancer Models

PURPOSE

To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET)'s SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.

METHODS

We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANNs) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.

RESULTS

The optimal ANN for SimCRC had 4 hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had 1 hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 h for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.

CONCLUSIONS

Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, such as the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating 3 realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

HIGHLIGHTS

We use artificial neural networks (ANNs) to build emulators that surrogate complex individual-based models to reduce the computational burden in the Bayesian calibration process.ANNs showed good performance in emulating the CISNET-CRC microsimulation models, despite having many input parameters and outputs.Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis.This work aims to support health decision scientists who want to quantify the uncertainty of calibrated parameters of computationally intensive simulation models under a Bayesian framework.

Is Economic Evaluation and Care Commissioning Focused on Achieving the Same Outcomes? Resource-Allocation Considerations and Challenges Using England as a Case Study

Commissioning describes the process of contracting appropriate care services to address pre-identified needs through pre-agreed payment structures. Outcomes-based commissioning (i.e., paying services for pre-agreed outcomes) shares a common goal with economic evaluation: achieving value for money for relevant outcomes (e.g., health) achieved from a finite budget. We describe considerations and challenges as to the practical role of relevant outcomes for evaluation and commissioning, seeking to bridge a gap between economic evaluation evidence and care commissioning. We describe conceptual (e.g., what are 'relevant' outcomes) alongside practical considerations (e.g., quantifying and using relevant endpoint or surrogate outcomes) and pertinent issues when linking outcomes to commissioning-based payment mechanisms, using England as a case study. Economic evaluation often focuses on a single endpoint health-focused maximand, e.g., quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), whereas commissioning often focuses on activity-based surrogate outcomes (e.g., health monitoring), as easier-to-measure key performance indicators that are more acceptable (e.g., by clinicians) and amenable to being linked with payment structures. However, payments linked to endpoint and/or surrogate outcomes can lead to market inefficiencies; for example, when surrogates do not have the intended causal effect on endpoint outcomes or when service activity focuses on only people who can achieve prespecified payment-linked outcomes. Accounting for and explaining direct links from commissioners' payment structures to surrogate and then endpoint economic outcomes is a vital step to bridging a gap between economic evaluation approaches and commissioning. Decision-analytic models could aid this but they must be designed to account for relevant surrogate and endpoint outcomes, the payments assigned to such outcomes, and their interaction with the system commissioners purport to influence.

Using Discrete Event Simulation to Design and Assess an AI-aided Workflow for Same-day Diagnostic Testing of Women Undergoing Breast Screening

The process of patients waiting for diagnostic examinations after an abnormal screening mammogram is inefficient and anxiety-inducing. Artificial intelligence (AI)-aided interpretation of screening mammography could reduce the number of recalls after screening. We proposed a same-day diagnostic workup to alleviate patient anxiety by employing an AI-aided interpretation to reduce unnecessary diagnostic testing after an abnormal screening mammogram. However, the potential unintended consequences of introducing this workflow in a high-volume breast imaging center are unknown. Using discrete event simulation, we observed that implementing the AI-aided screening mammogram interpretation and same-day diagnostic workflow would reduce daily patient volume by 4%, increase the time a patient would be at the clinic by 24%, and increase waiting times by 13-31%. We discuss how changing the hours of operation and introducing new imaging equipment and personnel may alleviate these negative impacts.

Feedback stabilization of probabilistic finite state machines based on deep Q-network

Background

As an important mathematical model, the finite state machine (FSM) has been used in many fields, such as manufacturing system, health care, and so on. This paper analyzes the current development status of FSMs. It is pointed out that the traditional methods are often inconvenient for analysis and design, or encounter high computational complexity problems when studying FSMs.

Method

The deep Q-network (DQN) technique, which is a model-free optimization method, is introduced to solve the stabilization problem of probabilistic finite state machines (PFSMs). In order to better understand the technique, some preliminaries, including Markov decision process, ϵ-greedy strategy, DQN, and so on, are recalled.

Results

First, a necessary and sufficient stabilizability condition for PFSMs is derived. Next, the feedback stabilization problem of PFSMs is transformed into an optimization problem. Finally, by using the stabilizability condition and deep Q-network, an algorithm for solving the optimization problem (equivalently, computing a state feedback stabilizer) is provided.

Discussion

Compared with the traditional Q learning, DQN avoids the limited capacity problem. So our method can deal with high-dimensional complex systems efficiently. The effectiveness of our method is further demonstrated through an illustrative example.

Diagnosing an overcrowded emergency department from its Electronic Health Records

Emergency department overcrowding is a complex problem that persists globally. Data of visits constitute an opportunity to understand its dynamics. However, the gap between the collected information and the real-life clinical processes, and the lack of a whole-system perspective, still constitute a relevant limitation. An analytical pipeline was developed to analyse one-year of production data following the patients that came from the ED (n = 49,938) at Uppsala University Hospital (Uppsala, Sweden) by involving clinical experts in all the steps of the analysis. The key internal issues to the ED were the high volume of generic or non-specific diagnoses from non-urgent visits, and the delayed decision regarding hospital admission caused by several imaging assessments and lack of hospital beds. Furthermore, the external pressure of high frequent re-visits of geriatric, psychiatric, and patients with unspecified diagnoses dramatically contributed to the overcrowding. Our work demonstrates that through analysis of production data of the ED patient flow and participation of clinical experts in the pipeline, it was possible to identify systemic issues and directions for solutions. A critical factor was to take a whole systems perspective, as it opened the scope to the boundary effects of inflow and outflow in the whole healthcare system.

Implementation of new technologies designed to improve cervical cancer screening and completion of care in low-resource settings: a case study from the Proyecto Precancer

BACKGROUND

This case study details the experience of the Proyecto Precancer in applying the Integrative Systems Praxis for Implementation Research (INSPIRE) methodology to guide the co-development, planning, implementation, adoption, and sustainment of new technologies and screening practices in a cervical cancer screening and management (CCSM) program in the Peruvian Amazon. We briefly describe the theoretical grounding of the INSPIRE framework, the phases of the INSPIRE process, the activities within each phase, and the RE-AIM outcomes used to evaluate program outcomes.

METHODS

Proyecto Precancer iteratively engaged over 90 stakeholders in the Micro Red Iquitos Sur (MRIS) health network in the Amazonian region of Loreto, Perú, through the INSPIRE phases. INSPIRE is an integrative research methodology grounded in systems thinking, participatory action research, and implementation science frameworks such as the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research. An interrupted time-series design with a mixed-methods RE-AIM (Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance) evaluation framework was used to examine the adoption of human papillomavirus (HPV) testing (including self-sampling), with direct treatment after visual inspection with portable thermal ablation, at the primary level.

RESULTS

This approach, blending participatory action research, implementation science, and systems-thinking, led to rapid adoption and successful implementation of the new cervical cancer screening and management program within 6 months, using an HPV-based screen-and-treat strategy across 17 health facilities in one of the largest public health networks of the Peruvian Amazon. Monitoring and evaluation data revealed that, within 6 months, the MRIS had surpassed their monthly screening goals, tripling their original screening rate, with approximately 70% of HPV-positive women reaching a completion of care endpoint, compared with around 30% prior to the new CCSM strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Proyecto Precancer facilitated the adoption and sustainment of HPV testing with subsequent treatment of HPV-positive women (after visual inspection) using portable thermal ablation at the primary level. This was accompanied by the de-implementation of existing visual inspection-based screening strategies and colposcopy for routine precancer triage at the hospital level. This case study highlights how implementation science approaches were used to guide the sustained adoption of a new screen-and-treat strategy in the Peruvian Amazon, while facilitating de-implementation of older screening practices.

An AI-based multiphase framework for improving the mechanical ventilation availability in emergency departments during respiratory disease seasons: a case study

BACKGROUND

Shortages of mechanical ventilation have become a constant problem in Emergency Departments (EDs), thereby affecting the timely deployment of medical interventions that counteract the severe health complications experienced during respiratory disease seasons. It is then necessary to count on agile and robust methodological approaches predicting the expected demand loads to EDs while supporting the timely allocation of ventilators. In this paper, we propose an integration of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Discrete-event Simulation (DES) to design effective interventions ensuring the high availability of ventilators for patients needing these devices.

METHODS

First, we applied Random Forest (RF) to estimate the mechanical ventilation probability of respiratory-affected patients entering the emergency wards. Second, we introduced the RF predictions into a DES model to diagnose the response of EDs in terms of mechanical ventilator availability. Lately, we pretested two different interventions suggested by decision-makers to address the scarcity of this resource. A case study in a European hospital group was used to validate the proposed methodology.

RESULTS

The number of patients in the training cohort was 734, while the test group comprised 315. The sensitivity of the AI model was 93.08% (95% confidence interval, [88.46 - 96.26%]), whilst the specificity was 85.45% [77.45 - 91.45%]. On the other hand, the positive and negative predictive values were 91.62% (86.75 - 95.13%) and 87.85% (80.12 - 93.36%). Also, the Receiver Operator Characteristic (ROC) curve plot was 95.00% (89.25 - 100%). Finally, the median waiting time for mechanical ventilation was decreased by 17.48% after implementing a new resource capacity strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

Combining AI and DES helps healthcare decision-makers to elucidate interventions shortening the waiting times for mechanical ventilators in EDs during respiratory disease epidemics and pandemics.

Discrete Event Simulation to Incorporate Infusion Wait-Time When Assessing Cost-Effectiveness of a Chimeric-Antigen Receptor T Cell Therapy

OBJECTIVES

The main objective was to use discrete event simulation to model the impact of wait-time, defined as the time between leukapheresis and chimeric antigen receptor (CAR-T) infusion, when assessing the cost-effectiveness of tisagenlecleucel in young patients with relapsed/refractory acute lymphoblastic leukemia.

METHODS

The movement of patients through the model was determined by parametric time-to-event distributions, with the competing risk of an event determining the costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) assigned. Cost-effectiveness was expressed using the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) for tisagenlecleucel compared with chemotherapy over the lifetime.

RESULTS

The base case generated a total of 5.79 QALYs and $622 872 for tisagenlecleucel and 1.19 QALYs and $181 219 for blinatumomab, resulting in an ICER of $96 074 per QALY. An increase in mean CAR-T wait-time to 6.20 months reduced the benefit and costs of tisagenlecleucel to 2.78 QALYs and $294 478 because of fewer patients proceeding to infusion, reducing the ICER to $71 112 per QALY. Alternatively, when the cost of tisagenlecleucel was assigned pre-infusion in sensitivity analysis, the ICER increased with increasing wait-time.

CONCLUSIONS

Under a payment arrangement where CAR-T cost is incurred post-infusion, the loss of benefit to patients is not reflected in the ICER. This may be misguiding to decision makers, where cost-effectiveness ratios are used to guide resource allocation. discrete event simulation is an important tool for economic modeling of CAR-T as it is amenable to capturing the impact of wait-time, facilitating better understanding of factors affecting service delivery and consequently informed decision making to deliver faster access to CAR-T for patients.

Intended and unintended consequences of strategies to meet performance benchmarks for rheumatologist referrals in a centralized intake system

RATIONALE

Timely assessment of a chronic condition is critical to prevent long-term irreversible consequences. Patients with inflammatory arthritis (IA) symptoms require diagnosis by a rheumatologist and intervention initiation to minimize potential joint damage. With limited rheumatologist capacity, meeting urgency wait time benchmarks can be challenging. We investigate the impact of the maximum wait time guarantee (MWTG) policy and referral volume changes in a rheumatology central intake (CI) system on meeting this challenge.

METHODS

We applied a system simulation approach to model a high-volume CI rheumatology clinic. Model parameters were based on the referral and triage data from the CI and clinic appointment data. We compare the wait time performance of the current distribution policy MWTG and when referral volumes change.

RESULTS

The MWTG policy ensures 100% of new patients see a rheumatologist within their urgency wait time benchmark. However, the average wait time for new patients increased by 51% (178-269 days). A 10% decrease in referrals resulted in a 76% decrease on average wait times (178-43 days) for new patients and an increase in the number of patients seen by a rheumatologist within 1 year of the initial visit.

CONCLUSION

An MWTG policy can result in intended and unintended consequences-ensuring that all patients meet the wait time benchmarks but increasing wait times overall. Relatively small changes in referral volume significantly impact wait times. These relationships can assist clinic managers and policymakers decide on the best approach to manage referrals for better system performance.

Combining simulation models and machine learning in healthcare management: strategies and applications

Simulation models and artificial intelligence (AI) are largely used to address healthcare and biomedical engineering problems. Both approaches showed promising results in the analysis and optimization of healthcare processes. Therefore, the combination of simulation models and AI could provide a strategy to further boost the quality of health services. In this work, a systematic review of studies applying a hybrid simulation models and AI approach to address healthcare management challenges was carried out. Scopus, Web of Science, and PubMed databases were screened by independent reviewers. The main strategies to combine simulation and AI as well as the major healthcare application scenarios were identified and discussed. Moreover, tools and algorithms to implement the proposed approaches were described. Results showed that machine learning appears to be the most employed AI strategy in combination with simulation models, which mainly rely on agent-based and discrete-event systems. The scarcity and heterogeneity of the included studies suggested that a standardized framework to implement hybrid machine learning-simulation approaches in healthcare management is yet to be defined. Future efforts should aim to use these approaches to design novel intelligentin-silicomodels of healthcare processes and to provide effective translation to the clinics.

Emulator-based Bayesian calibration of the CISNET colorectal cancer models

Purpose

To calibrate Cancer Intervention and Surveillance Modeling Network (CISNET) 's SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN simulation models of the natural history colorectal cancer (CRC) with an emulator-based Bayesian algorithm and internally validate the model-predicted outcomes to calibration targets.

Methods

We used Latin hypercube sampling to sample up to 50,000 parameter sets for each CISNET-CRC model and generated the corresponding outputs. We trained multilayer perceptron artificial neural networks (ANN) as emulators using the input and output samples for each CISNET-CRC model. We selected ANN structures with corresponding hyperparameters (i.e., number of hidden layers, nodes, activation functions, epochs, and optimizer) that minimize the predicted mean square error on the validation sample. We implemented the ANN emulators in a probabilistic programming language and calibrated the input parameters with Hamiltonian Monte Carlo-based algorithms to obtain the joint posterior distributions of the CISNET-CRC models' parameters. We internally validated each calibrated emulator by comparing the model-predicted posterior outputs against the calibration targets.

Results

The optimal ANN for SimCRC had four hidden layers and 360 hidden nodes, MISCAN-Colon had 4 hidden layers and 114 hidden nodes, and CRC-SPIN had one hidden layer and 140 hidden nodes. The total time for training and calibrating the emulators was 7.3, 4.0, and 0.66 hours for SimCRC, MISCAN-Colon, and CRC-SPIN, respectively. The mean of the model-predicted outputs fell within the 95% confidence intervals of the calibration targets in 98 of 110 for SimCRC, 65 of 93 for MISCAN, and 31 of 41 targets for CRC-SPIN.

Conclusions

Using ANN emulators is a practical solution to reduce the computational burden and complexity for Bayesian calibration of individual-level simulation models used for policy analysis, like the CISNET CRC models. In this work, we present a step-by-step guide to constructing emulators for calibrating three realistic CRC individual-level models using a Bayesian approach.

A Study on Decision-Making for Improving Service Efficiency in Hospitals

The provision of efficient healthcare services is essential, driven by the increasing demand for healthcare resources and the need to optimize hospital operations. In this context, the motivation to innovate and improve services while addressing urgent concerns is critical. Hospitals face challenges in managing internal dispatch services efficiently. Outsourcing such services can alleviate the burden on hospital staff, reduce costs, and introduce professional expertise. However, the pressing motivation lies in enhancing service quality, minimizing costs, and exploring innovative approaches. With the rising demand for healthcare services, there is an immediate need to streamline hospital operations. Delays in internal transportation services can have far-reaching implications for patient care, necessitating a prompt and effective solution. Drawing upon dispatch data from a healthcare center in Taiwan, this study constructed a decision-making model to optimize the allocation of hospital service resources. Employing simulation techniques, we closely examine how hospital services are currently organized and how they work. In our research, we utilized dispatch data gathered from a healthcare center in Taichung, Taiwan, spanning from January 2020 to December 2020. Our findings underscore the potential of an intelligent dispatch strategy combined with deployment restricted to the nearest available workers. Our study demonstrates that for cases requiring urgent attention, delay rates that previously ranged from 5% to 34% can be notably reduced to a much-improved 3% to 18%. However, it is important to recognize that the realm of worker dispatch remains subject to a multifaceted array of influencing factors. It becomes evident that a comprehensive dispatching mechanism must be established as part of a broader drive to enhance the efficiency of hospital service operations.

[The SCATTER project: computer-based simulation in the strategic transfer of intensive care patients]

BACKGROUND

The need for a concept for the nationwide strategic transfer of critical care patients in Germany was highlighted during the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease 2019) pandemic. Despite the cloverleaf concept developed specifically for this purpose, the transfer of large numbers of critical care patients represents a major challenge. With the help of a computer simulation, the SCATTER research project uses a fictitious example to test, develop, and recommend transfer strategies.

METHOD

The simulation was programmed after collecting procedural and structural data on critical care transports within Germany. The simulation allows altering various parameters and testing different transfer scenarios. In a fictitious scenario, nationwide transfers starting from Schleswig-Holstein were simulated and evaluated using predetermined criteria.

RESULTS

In the case of ground-based transfers, it became apparent that, depending on the selected target region, not all patients could be transferred due to the limited range of ground-based vehicles. Although a higher number of patients can be transferred by air, this is associated with additional gurney changes and potential risk to the patient. A distance-dependent transport strategy led to the identical results as purely air-bound transport, since air-bound transport was always chosen due to the long distances.

DISCUSSION

The simulation can be used to develop recommendations and to draw important conclusions from different transfer strategies.

Optimizing the management of electrophysiology labs in Chinese hospitals using a discrete event simulation tool

BACKGROUND

The growing demand for electrophysiology (EP) treatment in China presents a challenge for current EP care delivery systems. This study constructed a discrete event simulation (DES) model of an inpatient EP care delivery process, simulating a generalized inpatient journey of EP patients from admission to discharge in the cardiology department of a tertiary hospital in China. The model shows how many more patients the system can serve under different resource constraints by optimizing various phases of the care delivery process.

METHODS

Model inputs were based on and validated using real-world data, simulating the scheduling of limited resources among competing demands from different patient types. The patient stay consists of three stages, namely: the pre-operative stay, the EP procedure, and the post-operative stay. The model outcome was the total number of discharges during the simulation period. The scenario analysis presented in this paper covers two capacity-limiting scenarios (CLS): (1) fully occupied ward beds and (2) fully occupied electrophysiology laboratories (EP labs). Within each CLS, we investigated potential throughput when the length of stay or operative time was reduced by 10%, 20%, and 30%. The reductions were applied to patients with atrial fibrillation, the most common indication accounting for almost 30% of patients.

RESULTS

Model validation showed simulation results approximated actual data (137.2 discharges calculated vs. 137 observed). With fully occupied wards, reducing pre- and/or post-operative stay time resulted in a 1-7% increased throughput. With fully occupied EP labs, reduced operative time increased throughput by 3-12%.

CONCLUSIONS

Model validation and scenario analyses demonstrated that the DES model reliably reflects the EP care delivery process. Simulations identified which phases of the process should be optimized under different resource constraints, and the expected increases in patients served.

Implementation of new technologies designed to improve cervical cancer screening and completion of care in low-resource settings: A case study from the Proyecto Precancer

Background

This case study details the experience of the Proyecto Precancer in applying the Integrative Systems Praxis for Implementation Research (INSPIRE) research methodology to guide the co-development, planning, implementation, adoption, and sustainment of new technologies and screening practices in a cervical cancer screening and management program in the Peruvian Amazon. We briefly describe the theoretical grounding of the INSPIRE framework, the phases of the INSPIRE process, the activities within each phase, and the RE-AIM outcomes used to evaluate program outcomes.

Methods

Proyecto Precancer iteratively engaged over 90 stakeholders in the Micro Red Iquitos Sur (MRIS) health network in the Amazonian region of Loreto, Perú through the INSPIRE phases. INSPIRE is an integrative research methodology grounded in systems thinking, participatory action research, and implementation science frameworks such as the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research. An interrupted time-series design with a mixed-methods RE-AIM (Reach, Effectiveness, Adoption, Implementation, and Maintenance) evaluation framework was used to examine the adoption of molecular-based primary cervical cancer screening using HPV-testing (including self-sampling), with direct treatment after visual inspection with portable thermal ablation at the primary level.

Results

The participatory and system-thinking-oriented approach led to rapid adoption and successful implementation of the new cervical cancer screening and management program within 6 months, using an HPV-based screen-and-treat strategy across 17 health facilities in one of the largest public health networks of the Peruvian Amazon. Monitoring and evaluation data revealed that, within 6 months, the MRIS had surpassed their monthly screening goals, tripling their original screening rate, with approximately 70% of HPV-positive women reaching a completion of care endpoint, compared with around 30% prior to the new CCSM strategy.

Conclusions

Proyecto Precancer facilitated the adoption and sustainment of molecular-based primary cervical cancer screening using HPV-testing (including self-sampling), with direct treatment after visual inspection with portable thermal ablation at the primary level and the de-implementation of existing visual inspection-based screening strategies and colposcopy for routine precancer triage at the hospital level. This case study shows how PP used implementation science approaches to guide the adoption of a new screen-and-treat strategy in the Peruvian Amazon, while facilitating de-implementation of older screening practices.

Exploratory analysis using discrete event simulation modelling of the wait times and service costs associated with the maximum wait time guarantee policy applied in a rheumatology central intake clinic

Adherence to wait time benchmark targets for the diagnosis and initiation of interventions for rheumatoid arthritis is crucial in altering the disease trajectory. We analysed the impact of the maximum wait time guarantee (MWTG) policy for routing referrals for the initial rheumatologist consults on the waiting and service costs. We modelled a central intake system for a rheumatology clinic as a discrete event simulation (DES) model. Using data from a central intake and rheumatology clinic as input to the model of the system, we simulated the arrival of referrals and rheumatologist visits of patients. We demonstrated the impact of the referral policy on system performance and compared the system costs in an MWTG policy and first-available-appointment policy scenarios. MWTG policy is an option for a wait time management strategy but comes with essential cost considerations. Healthcare managers and policymakers should consider the DES approach to support referral decision policy choices.

Simulation of Alcohol Control Policies for Health Equity (SIMAH) Project: Study Design and First Results

Since about 2010, life expectancy at birth in the United States has stagnated and begun to decline, with concurrent increases in the socioeconomic divide in life expectancy. The Simulation of Alcohol Control Policies for Health Equity (SIMAH) Project uses a novel microsimulation approach to investigate the extent to which alcohol use, socioeconomic status (SES), and race/ethnicity contribute to unequal developments in US life expectancy and how alcohol control interventions could reduce such inequalities. Representative, secondary data from several sources will be integrated into one coherent, dynamic microsimulation to model life-course changes in SES and alcohol use and cause-specific mortality attributable to alcohol use by SES, race/ethnicity, age, and sex. Markov models will be used to inform transition intensities between levels of SES and drinking patterns. The model will be used to compare a baseline scenario with multiple counterfactual intervention scenarios. The preliminary results indicate that the crucial microsimulation component provides a good fit to observed demographic changes in the population, providing a robust baseline model for further simulation work. By demonstrating the feasibility of this novel approach, the SIMAH Project promises to offer superior integration of relevant empirical evidence to inform public health policy for a more equitable future.

Artificial intelligence and discrete-event simulation for capacity management of intensive care units during the Covid-19 pandemic: A case study

The Covid-19 pandemic has pushed the Intensive Care Units (ICUs) into significant operational disruptions. The rapid evolution of this disease, the bed capacity constraints, the wide variety of patient profiles, and the imbalances within health supply chains still represent a challenge for policymakers. This paper aims to use Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) to support ICU bed capacity management during Covid-19. The proposed approach was validated in a Spanish hospital chain where we initially identified the predictors of ICU admission in Covid-19 patients. Second, we applied Random Forest (RF) to predict ICU admission likelihood using patient data collected in the Emergency Department (ED). Finally, we included the RF outcomes in a DES model to assist decision-makers in evaluating new ICU bed configurations responding to the patient transfer expected from downstream services. The results evidenced that the median bed waiting time declined between 32.42 and 48.03 min after intervention.

APLUS: A Python library for usefulness simulations of machine learning models in healthcare

Despite the creation of thousands of machine learning (ML) models, the promise of improving patient care with ML remains largely unrealized. Adoption into clinical practice is lagging, in large part due to disconnects between how ML practitioners evaluate models and what is required for their successful integration into care delivery. Models are just one component of care delivery workflows whose constraints determine clinicians' abilities to act on models' outputs. However, methods to evaluate the usefulness of models in the context of their corresponding workflows are currently limited. To bridge this gap we developed APLUS, a reusable framework for quantitatively assessing via simulation the utility gained from integrating a model into a clinical workflow. We describe the APLUS simulation engine and workflow specification language, and apply it to evaluate a novel ML-based screening pathway for detecting peripheral artery disease at Stanford Health Care.

Using stochastic simulation modelling to study occupancy levels of decentralised admission avoidance units in Norway

Identifying alternatives to acute hospital admission is a priority for many countries. Over 200 decentralised municipal acute units (MAUs) were established in Norway to divert low-acuity patients away from hospitals. MAUs have faced criticism for low mean occupancy and not relieving pressures on hospitals. We developed a discrete time simulation model of admissions and discharges to MAUs to test scenarios for increasing absolute mean occupancy. We also used the model to estimate the number of patients turned away as historical data was unavailable. Our experiments suggest that mergers alone are unlikely to substantially increase MAU absolute mean occupancy as unmet demand is generally low. However, merging MAUs offers scope for up to 20% reduction in bed capacity, without affecting service provision. Our work has relevance for other admissions avoidance units and provides a method for estimating unconstrained demand for beds in the absence of historical data.

Behavioral stability of alcohol consumption and socio-demographic correlates of change among a nationally representative cohort of US adults

AIMS

To estimate the probability of transitioning between different categories of alcohol use (drinking states) among a nationally representative cohort of United States (US) adults and to identify the effects of socio-demographic characteristics on those transitions.

DESIGN, SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

Secondary analysis of data from the National Epidemiologic Survey of Alcohol and Related Conditions (NESARC), a prospective cohort study conducted in 2001-02 and 2004-05; a US nation-wide, population-based study. Participants included 34 165 adults (mean age = 45.1 years, standard deviation = 17.3; 52% women).

MEASUREMENTS

Alcohol use was self-reported and categorized based on the grams consumed per day: (1) non-drinker (no drinks in past 12 months), (2) category I (women = ≤ 20; men = ≤ 40), (3) category II (women = 21-40; men = 41-60) and (4) category III (women = ≥ 41; men = ≥ 61). Multi-state Markov models estimated the probability of transitioning between drinking states, conditioned on age, sex, race/ethnicity and educational attainment. Analyses were repeated with alcohol use categorized based on the frequency of heavy episodic drinking.

FINDINGS

The highest transition probabilities were observed for staying in the same state; after 1 year, the probability of remaining in the same state was 90.1% [95% confidence interval (CI) = 89.7%, 90.5%] for non-drinkers, 90.2% (95% CI = 89.9%, 90.5%) for category I, 31.8% (95% CI = 29.7, 33.9%) category II and 52.2% (95% CI = 46.0, 58.5%) for category III. Women, older adults, and non-Hispanic Other adults were less likely to transition between drinking states, including transitions to lower use. Adults with lower educational attainment were more likely to transition between drinking states; however, they were also less likely to transition out of the 'weekly HED' category. Black adults were more likely to transition into or stay in higher use categories, whereas Hispanic/Latinx adults were largely similar to White adults.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study of alcohol transition probabilities, some demographic subgroups appeared more likely to transition into or persist in higher alcohol consumption states.

A Simulation Modelling Study of Referral Distribution Policies in a Centralized Intake System for Surgical Consultation

Delays beyond recommended wait times, especially for specialist services, are associated with adverse health outcomes. The Alberta Surgical Initiative aims to improve the referral wait time-the time between a referral is received at the central intake to the time a specialist sees the patient. Using the discrete event simulation modelling approach, we evaluated and compared the impact of four referral distribution policies in a central intake system on three system performance measures (number of consultations, referral wait time and surgeon utilization). The model was co-designed with clinicians and clinic staff to represent the flow of patients through the system. We used data from the Facilitated Access to Surgical Treatment (FAST) centralized intake referral program for General Surgery to parameterize the model. Four distribution policies were evaluated - next-available-surgeon, sequential, "blackjack," and "kanban." A sequential distribution of referrals for surgical consultation among the surgeons resulted in the worst performance in terms of the number of consultations, referral wait time and surgeon utilization. The three other distribution policies are comparable in performance. The "next available surgeon" model provided the most efficient and robust model, with approximately 1,000 more consultations, 100 days shorter referral time and a 14% increase in surgeon utilization. Discrete event simulation (DES) modelling can be an effective tool to illustrate and communicate the impact of the referral distribution policy on system performance in terms of the number of consultations, referral wait time and surgeon utilization.

A decision support tool with health economic modelling for better management of DVT patients

BACKGROUND

Responding to the increasing demand for Deep Vein Thrombosis (DVT) treatment in the United Kingdom (UK) at times of limited budgets and resources is a great challenge for decision-makers. Therefore, there is a need to find innovative policies, which improve operational efficiency and achieve the best value for money for patients. This study aims to develop a Decision Support Tool (DST) that assesses the impact of implementing new DVT patients' management and care policies aiming at improving efficiency, reducing costs, and enhancing value for money.

METHODS

With the involvement of stakeholders from a number of DVT services in the UK, we developed a DST combining discrete event simulation (DES) for DVT pathways and the Socio Technical Allocation of Resources (STAR) approach, an agile health economics technique. The model was inputted with data from the literature, local datasets from DVT services, and interviews conducted with DVT specialists. The tool was validated and verified by various stakeholders and two policies, namely shifting more patients to community services (CSs) and increasing the usage of the Novel Oral Anticoagulant (NOAC) drug were selected for testing on the model.

RESULTS

Sixteen possible scenarios were run on the model for a period of 5 years and generated treatment activity, human resources, costing, and value for money outputs. The results indicated that hospital visits can be reduced by up to 50%. Human resources' usage can be greatly lowered driven mainly by offering NOAC treatment to more patients. Also, combining both policies can lead to cost savings of up to 50%. The STAR method, which considers both service and patient perspectives, produced findings that implementing both policies provide a significantly higher value for money compared to the situation when neither is applied.

CONCLUSIONS

The combination of DES and STAR can help decision-makers determine the interventions that have the highest benefits from service providers' and patients' perspectives. This is important given the mismatch between care demand and resources and the resulting need for improving operational and economic outcomes. The DST tool has the potential to inform policymaking in DVT services in the UK to improve performance.

Improving service efficiency and throughput of cardiac surgery patients using Monte Carlo simulation: a queueing setting

Bed occupancy rate (BOR) is important for healthcare policymakers. Studies showed the necessity of using simulation approach when encountering complex real-world problems to plan the optimal use of resources and improve the quality of services. So, the aim of the present study is to estimate average length of stay (LOS), BOR, bed blocking probability (BBP), and throughput of patients in a cardiac surgery department (CSD) using simulation models. We studied the behavior of a CSD as a complex queueing system at the Farshchian Hospital. In the queueing model, customers were patients and servers were beds in intensive care unit (ICU) and post-operative ward (POW). A computer program based on the Monte Carlo simulation, using Python software, was developed to evaluate the behavior of the system under different number of beds in ICU and POW. The queueing simulation study showed that, for a fixed number of beds in ICU, BOR in POW decreases as the number of beds in POW increases and LOS in ICU increases as the number of beds in POW decreases. Also, based on the available data, the throughput of patients in the CSD during 800 days was 1999 patients. Whereas, the simulation results showed that, 2839 patients can be operated in the same period. The results of the simulation study clearly demonstrated the behavior of the CSD; so, it must be mentioned, hospital administrators should design an efficient plan to increase BOR and throughput of patients in the future.

Effective Response to Hospital Congestion Scenarios: Simulation-Based Evaluation of Decongestion Interventions

Hospital overcrowding is becoming a major concern in the modern era due to the increasing demand for hospital services. This study seeks to identify effective and efficient ways to resolve the serious problem of congestion in hospitals by testing a range of decongestion strategies with simulated scenarios. In order to determine more efficient solutions, interventions with smaller changes were consistently tested at the beginning through a simulation platform. In addition, the implementation patterns were investigated, which are important to hospital managers with respect to the decisions made to control hospital congestion. The results indicated that diverting a small number of ambulances seems to be more effective and efficient in congestion reduction compared to other approaches. Furthermore, instead of implementing an isolated approach continuously, combining one approach with other strategies is recommended as a method for dealing with hospital overcrowding.

Planning for resilience in screening operations using discrete event simulation modeling: example of HPV testing in Peru

Background

The World Health Organization (WHO) has called for the elimination of cervical cancer. Unfortunately, the implementation of cost-effective prevention and control strategies has faced significant barriers, such as insufficient guidance on best practices for resource and operations planning. Therefore, we demonstrate the value of discrete event simulation (DES) in implementation science research and practice, particularly to support the programmatic and operational planning for sustainable and resilient delivery of healthcare interventions. Our specific example shows how DES models can inform planning for scale-up and resilient operations of a new HPV-based screen and treat program in Iquitos, an Amazonian city of Peru.

Methods

Using data from a time and motion study and cervical cancer screening registry from Iquitos, Peru, we developed a DES model to conduct virtual experimentation with “what-if” scenarios that compare different workflow and processing strategies under resource constraints and disruptions to the screening system.

Results

Our simulations show how much the screening system’s capacity can be increased at current resource levels, how much variability in service times can be tolerated, and the extent of resilience to disruptions such as curtailed resources. The simulations also identify the resources that would be required to scale up for larger target populations or increased resilience to disruptions, illustrating the key tradeoff between resilience and efficiency. Thus, our results demonstrate how DES models can inform specific resourcing decisions but can also highlight important tradeoffs and suggest general “rules” for resource and operational planning.

Conclusions

Multilevel planning and implementation challenges are not unique to sustainable adoption of cervical cancer screening programs but represent common barriers to the successful scale-up of many preventative health interventions worldwide. DES represents a broadly applicable tool to address complex implementation challenges identified at the national, regional, and local levels across settings and health interventions—how to make effective and efficient operational and resourcing decisions to support program adaptation to local constraints and demands so that they are resilient to changing demands and more likely to be maintained with fidelity over time.

New bed configurations and discharge timing policies: A hospital‐wide simulation

OBJECTIVE

Optimising patient flow is becoming an increasingly critical issue as patient demand fluctuates in healthcare systems with finite capacity. Simulation provides a powerful tool to fine-tune policies and investigate their impact before any costly intervention.

METHODS

A hospital-wide discrete event simulation is developed to model incoming flow from ED and elective units in a busy metropolitan hospital. The impacts of two different policies are investigated using this simulation model: (i) varying inpatient bed configurations and a load sharing strategy among a cluster of wards within a medical department and (ii) early discharge strategies on inpatient bed access. Several clinically relevant bed configurations and early discharge scenarios are defined and their impact on key performance metrics are quantified.

RESULTS

Sharing beds between wards reduced the average and total ED length of stay (LOS) by 21% compared to having patients queue for individual wards. The current baseline performance level could be maintained by using fewer beds when the load sharing approach was imposed. Earlier discharge of inpatients resulted in reducing average patient ED LOS by approximately 16% and average patient waiting time by 75%. Specific time-based discharge targets led to greater improvements in flow compared to blanket approaches of discharging all patients 1 or 2 hours earlier.

CONCLUSIONS

ED access performance for admitted patients can be improved by modifying downstream capacity or inpatient discharge times. The simulation model was able to quantify the potential impacts of such policies on patient flow and to provide insights for future strategic planning.

An exploratory assessment of the impact of a novel risk assessment test on breast cancer clinic waiting times and workflow: a discrete event simulation model

Background

Breast cancer clinics across the UK have long been struggling to cope with high demand. Novel risk prediction tools – such as the PinPoint test – could help to reduce unnecessary clinic referrals. Using early data on the expected accuracy of the test, we explore the potential impact of PinPoint on: (a) the percentage of patients meeting the two-week referral target, and (b) the number of clinic ‘overspill’ appointments generated (i.e. patients having to return to the clinic to complete their required investigations).

Methods

A simulation model was built to reflect the annual flow of patients through a single UK clinic. Due to current uncertainty around the exact impact of PinPoint testing on standard care, two primary scenarios were assessed. Scenario 1 assumed complete GP adherence to testing, with only non-referred cancerous cases returning for delayed referral. Scenario 2 assumed GPs would overrule 20% of low-risk results, and that 10% of non-referred non-cancerous cases would also return for delayed referral. A range of sensitivity analyses were conducted to explore the impact of key uncertainties on the model results. Service reconfiguration scenarios, removing individual weekly clinics from the clinic schedule, were also explored.

Results

Under standard care, 66.3% (95% CI: 66.0 to 66.5) of patients met the referral target, with 1,685 (1,648 to 1,722) overspill appointments. Under both PinPoint scenarios, > 98% of patients met the referral target, with overspill appointments reduced to between 727 (707 to 746) [Scenario 1] and 886 (861 to 911) [Scenario 2]. The reduced clinic demand was sufficient to allow removal of one weekly low-capacity clinic [N = 10], and the results were robust to sensitivity analyses.

Conclusion

The findings from this early analysis indicate that risk prediction tools could have the potential to alleviate pressure on cancer clinics, and are expected to have increased utility in the wake of heightened pressures resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic. Further research is required to validate these findings with real world evidence; evaluate the broader clinical and economic impact of the test; and to determine outcomes and risks for patients deemed to be low-risk on the PinPoint test and therefore not initially referred.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12913-022-08665-0.

GENESISS 1-Generating Standards for In-Situ Simulation project: a scoping review and conceptual model

BACKGROUND

In-Situ Simulation (ISS) enables teams to rehearse and review practice in the clinical environment to facilitate knowledge transition, reflection and safe learning. There is increasing use of ISS in healthcare organisations for which patient safety and quality improvement are key drivers. However, the effectiveness of ISS interventions has not yet been fully demonstrated and requires further study to maximise impact. Cohesive programmatic implementation is lacking and efforts to standardise ISS terms and concepts, strengthen the evidence base and develop an integrated model of learning is required. The aim of this study was to explore the current evidence, theories and concepts associated with ISS across all areas of healthcare and develop a conceptual model to inform future ISS research and best practice guidance.

METHODS

A scoping review was undertaken with stakeholder feedback to develop a conceptual model for ISS. Medline, OpenGrey and Web of Science were searched in September 2018 and updated in December 2020. Data from the included scoping review studies were analysed descriptively and organised into categories based on the different motivations, concepts and theoretical approaches for ISS. Categories and concepts were further refined through accessing stakeholder feedback.

RESULTS

Thirty-eight papers were included in the scoping review. Papers reported the development and evaluation of ISS interventions. Stakeholder groups highlighted situations where ISS could be suitable to improve care and outcomes and identified contextual and practical factors for implementation. A conceptual model of ISS was developed which was organised into four themes: 1. To understand and explore why systematic events occur in complex settings; 2.To design and test new clinical spaces, equipment, information technologies and procedures; 3. To practice and develop capability in individual and team performance; 4. To assess competency in complex clinical settings.

CONCLUSIONS

ISS presents a promising approach to improve individual and team capabilities and system performance and address the 'practice-theory gap'. However, there are limitations associated with ISS such as the impact on the clinical setting and service provision, the reliance of having an open learning culture and availability of relevant expertise. ISS should be introduced with due consideration of the specific objectives and learning needs it is proposed to address. Effectiveness of ISS has not yet been established and further research is required to evaluate and disseminate the findings of ISS interventions.

An Agile Systems Modeling Framework for Bed Resource Planning During COVID-19 Pandemic in Singapore

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on health systems globally. The sufficiency of hospitals' bed resource is a cornerstone for access to care which can significantly impact the public health outcomes.

Objective

We describe the development of a dynamic simulation framework to support agile resource planning during the COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore.

Materials and Methods

The study data were derived from the Singapore General Hospital and public domain sources over the period from 1 January 2020 till 31 May 2020 covering the period when the initial outbreak and surge of COVID-19 cases in Singapore happened. The simulation models and its variants take into consideration the dynamic evolution of the pandemic and the rapidly evolving policies and processes in Singapore.

Results

The models were calibrated against historical data for the Singapore COVID-19 situation. Several variants of the resource planning model were rapidly developed to adapt to the fast-changing COVID-19 situation in Singapore.

Conclusion

The agility in adaptable models and robust collaborative management structure enabled the quick deployment of human and capital resources to sustain the high level of health services delivery during the COVID-19 surge.

Evaluating childhood policy impacts on lifetime health, wellbeing and inequality: Lifecourse distributional economic evaluation

We introduce and illustrate a new framework for distributional economic evaluation of childhood policies that takes a broad and long view of the impacts on health, wellbeing and inequality from a cross-sectoral whole-lifetime perspective. Total lifetime benefits and public cost savings are estimated using lifecourse microsimulation of diverse health, social and economic outcomes for each individual in a general population birth cohort from birth to death. Cost-effectiveness analysis, policy targeting analysis and distributional analysis of inequality impacts are then conducted using an index of lifetime wellbeing that allow comparisons of both value-for-money (efficiency) and distributional impact (equity) from a cross-sectoral lifetime perspective. We illustrate how this framework can be applied in practice by re-evaluating a training programme in England for parents of children at risk of conduct disorder. Our illustration uses a simple index of lifetime wellbeing based on health-related quality of life and consumption, but other indices could be used based on other kinds of outcomes data such as life satisfaction or multidimensional quality of life. We create the detailed underpinning data needed to apply the framework by using a previously published meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials to estimate the short-term effects and a previously published lifecourse microsimulation model to extrapolate the long-term effects.

Use of discrete event simulation and genetic algorithms to estimate the necessary resources to respond in a timely manner in the Medical Emergency System in Bogotá

Introduction

Bogotá has a Medical Emergency System of public and private ambulances that respond to health incidents. However, its sufficiency in quantity, type and location of the resources demanded is not known.

Objective

Based on the data from the Medical Emergency System of Bogotá, Colombia, we first sought to characterize the prehospital re- sponse in cardiac arrest and determine with the model which is the least number of resources necessary to respond within eight minutes, taking into account their location, number, and type.

Methods

A database of incidents reported in administrative records of the district health authority of Bogotá (2014 to 2017) was obtained. Based on this information, a hybrid model based on discrete event simulation and genetic algorithms was designed to establish the amount, type and geographic location of resources according to the frequencies and typology of the events.

Results

From the database, Bogotá presented 938 671 ambulances dispatches in the period. 47.4% high priority, 18.9% medium and 33.74% low. 92% of these corresponded to 15 of 43 medical emergency codes. The response times recorded were longer than expected, especially in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (median 19 minutes). In the proposed model, the best scenario required at least 281 ambulances, medicalized and basic in a 3:1 ratio, respectively, to respond in adequate time.

Conclusions

Results suggest the need for an increase in the resources that respond to these incidents to bring these response times to the needs of our population.

A critical review of implementing lean and simulation to improve resource utilization and patient experience in outpatient clinics

Purpose

The purpose of this paper is to explore and critically review the existing literature on applications of Lean Methodology (LM) and Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) to improve resource utilization and patient experience in outpatient clinics. In doing, it is aimed to identify how to implement LM in outpatient clinics and discuss the advantages of integrating both lean and simulation tools towards achieving the desired outpatient clinics outcomes.

Design/methodology/approach

A theoretical background of LM and DES to define a proper implementation approach is developed. The search strategy of available literature on LM and DES used to improve outpatient clinic operations is discussed. Bibliometric analysis to identify patterns in the literature including trends, associated frameworks, DES software used, and objective and solutions implemented are presented. Next, an analysis of the identified work offering critical insights to improve the implementation of LM and DES in outpatient clinics is presented.

Findings

Critical analysis of the literature on LM and DES reveals three main obstacles hindering the successful implementation of LM and DES. To address the obstacles, a framework that integrates DES with LM has been recommended and proposed. The paper provides an example of such a framework and identifies the role of LM and DES towards improving the performance of their implementation in outpatient clinics.

Originality/value

This study provides a critical review and analysis of the existing implementation of LM and DES. The current roadblocks hindering LM and DES from achieving their expected potential has been identified. In addition, this study demonstrates how LM with DES combined to achieve the desired outpatient clinic objectives.

Impact of Allocation on Survival During Intermittent Chemotherapy Shortages: A Modeling Analysis

BACKGROUND

Intermittent shortages of chemotherapeutics used to treat curable malignancies are a worldwide problem that increases patient mortality. Although multiple strategies have been proposed for managing these shortages (eg, prioritizing patients by age, scarce treatment efficacy per volume, alternative treatment efficacy difference), critical clinical dilemmas arise when selecting a management strategy and understanding its impact.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

We developed a model to compare the impact of different allocation strategies on overall survival during intermittent chemotherapy shortages and tested it using vincristine, which was recently scarce for 9 months in the United States. Demographic and treatment data were abstracted from 1,689 previously treated patients in our tertiary-care system; alternatives were abstracted from NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology for each disease and survival probabilities from the studies cited therein. Modeled survival was validated using SEER data. Nine-month shortages were modeled for all possible supply levels. Pairwise differences in 3-year survival and risk reductions were calculated for each strategy compared with standard practice (first-come, first-served) for each 50-mg supply increment, as were supply thresholds above which each strategy maintained survival similar to scenarios without shortages.

RESULTS

A strategy prioritizing by higher vincristine efficacy per volume and greater alternative treatment efficacy difference performed best, improving survival significantly (P<.01) across 86.5% of possible shortages (relative risk reduction, 8.3%; 99% CI, 8.0-8.5) compared with standard practice. This strategy also maintained survival rates similar to a model without shortages until supply fell below 72.2% of the amount required to treat all patients, compared with 94.3% for standard practice.

CONCLUSIONS

During modeled vincristine shortages, prioritizing patients by higher efficacy per volume and alternative treatment efficacy difference significantly improved survival over standard practice. This approach can help optimize allocation as intermittent chemotherapy shortages continue to arise.

Simulation Study of the Impact of COVID-19 Policies on the Efficiency of a Smart Clinic MRI Service

The present study examines the impact of the policies against the proliferation of SARS-CoV-2 on outpatient facilities through a direct comparison of the key performance indicators measured in an ordinary and pandemic scenario. The subject of the analysis is a diagnostic imaging department of a Smart Clinic (SC) of Gruppo San Donato (GSD). The operations are virtually replicated through a Discrete-Event Simulation (DES) software called FlexSim Healthcare. Operational and productivity indicators are defined and quantified. As hypothesized, anti-contagious practices affect the normal execution of medical activities and their performance, resulting in an unpleasant scenario compared to the baseline one. A reduction in the number of diagnoses by 19% and a decrease in the utilization rate of the diagnostic machine by 21% are shown. Consequently, the development of strategies that restore balance and improve the execution of outpatient activities in a pandemic setting is necessary.

A discrete event simulation to evaluate impact of radiology process changes on emergency department computed tomography access

BACKGROUND

Hospitals face the challenge of managing demand for limited computed tomography (CT) resources from multiple patient types while ensuring timely access.

METHODS

A discrete event simulation model was created to evaluate CT access time for emergency department (ED) patients at a large academic medical center with six unique CT machines that serve unscheduled emergency, semi-scheduled inpatient, and scheduled outpatient demand. Three operational interventions were tested: adding additional patient transporters, using an alternative creatinine lab, and adding a registered nurse dedicated to monitoring CT patients in the ED.

RESULTS

All interventions improved access times. Adding one or two transporters improved ED access times by up to 9.8 minutes (Mann-Whitney (MW) CI: [-11.0,-8.7]) and 10.3 minutes (MW CI [-11.5, -9.2]). The alternative creatinine and RN interventions provided 3-minute (MW CI: [-4.0, -2.0]) and 8.5-minute (MW CI: [-9.7, -8.3]) improvements.

CONCLUSIONS

Adding one transporter provided the greatest combination of reduced delay and ability to implement. The projected simulation improvements have been realized in practice.

Applying Discrete Event Simulation to Reduce Patient Wait Times and Crowding: The Case of a Specialist Outpatient Clinic with Dual Practice System

Long wait times and crowding are major issues affecting outpatient service delivery, but it is unclear how these affect patients in dual practice settings. This study aims to evaluate the effects of changing consultation start time and patient arrival on wait times and crowding in an outpatient clinic with a dual practice system. A discrete event simulation (DES) model was developed based on real-world data from an Obstetrics and Gynaecology (O&G) clinic in a public hospital. Data on patient flow, resource availability, and time taken for registration and clinic processes for public and private patients were sourced from stakeholder discussion and time-motion study (TMS), while arrival times were sourced from the hospital’s information system database. Probability distributions were used to fit these input data in the model. Scenario analyses involved configurations on consultation start time/staggered patient arrival. The median registration and clinic turnaround times (TT) were significantly different between public and private patients (p < 0.01). Public patients have longer wait times than private patients in this study’s dual practice setting. Scenario analyses showed that early consultation start time that matches patient arrival time and staggered arrival could reduce the overall TT for public and private patients by 40% and 21%, respectively. Similarly, the number of patients waiting at the clinic per hour could be reduced by 10–21% during clinic peak hours. Matching consultation start time with staggered patient arrival can potentially reduce wait times and crowding, especially for public patients, without incurring additional resource needs and help narrow the wait time gap between public and private patients. Healthcare managers and policymakers can consider simulation approaches for the monitoring and improvement of healthcare operational efficiency to meet rising healthcare demand and costs.