Plasma Acylcarnitines as Metabolic Signatures of Declining Health-Related Quality of Life Measure in Community-Dwelling Older Adults: A Combined Cross-sectional and Longitudinal Pilot Study

BACKGROUND

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) measures are predictors of adverse health outcomes in older adults. Studies have demonstrated cross-sectional associations between HRQoL measures and blood-based biochemical markers. Acylcarnitines (ACs) are a class of metabolites generated in the mitochondria and are predictive of multiple geriatric syndromes. Changes in ACs reflect alterations in central carbon metabolic pathways. However, the prospective relationship between plasma ACs and declining HRQoL has not been examined. This study aimed to investigate both cross-sectional and longitudinal associations of baseline ACs with baseline and declining EuroQol-5 Dimension/EuroQol Visual Analogue Scale (EQ-5D/EQ-VAS) in community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

One hundred and twenty community-dwelling older adults with EQ-5D/EQ-VAS measurements at baseline and follow-up were included. We quantified ACs at baseline using targeted plasma metabolomics profiling. Multivariate regressions were performed to examine cross-sectional and longitudinal associations between the measures.

RESULTS

Cross-sectionally, ACs showed no significant associations with either EQ-5D index or EQ-VAS scores. Longitudinally, multiple baseline short-chain ACs were significantly and inversely associated with declining EQ-5D index score, explaining up to 8.5% of variance in the decline.

CONCLUSIONS

Within a cohort of community-dwelling older adults who had high HRQoL at baseline, we showed that higher levels of short-chain ACs are longitudinally associated with declining HRQoL. These findings reveal a novel association between central carbon metabolic pathways and declining HRQoL. Notably, dysregulation in mitochondrial central carbon metabolism could be detected prior to clinically important decline in HRQoL, providing the first evidence of objective biomarkers as novel predictors to monitor HRQoL in nonpharmacological interventions and epidemiology.

Mapping the value for money of precision medicine: a systematic literature review and meta-analysis

Objective

This study aimed to quantify heterogeneity in the value for money of precision medicine (PM) by application types across contexts and conditions and to quantify sources of heterogeneity to areas of particular promises or concerns as the field of PM moves forward.

Methods

A systemic search was performed in Embase, Medline, EconLit, and CRD databases for studies published between 2011 and 2021 on cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) of PM interventions. Based on a willingness-to-pay threshold of one-time GDP per capita of each study country, the net monetary benefit (NMB) of PM was pooled using random-effects meta-analyses. Sources of heterogeneity and study biases were examined using random-effects meta-regressions, jackknife sensitivity analysis, and the biases in economic studies checklist.

Results

Among the 275 unique CEAs of PM, publicly sponsored studies found neither genetic testing nor gene therapy cost-effective in general, which was contradictory to studies funded by commercial entities and early stage evaluations. Evidence of PM being cost-effective was concentrated in a genetic test for screening, diagnosis, or as companion diagnostics (pooled NMBs, $48,152, $8,869, $5,693, p < 0.001), in the form of multigene panel testing (pooled NMBs = $31,026, p < 0.001), which only applied to a few disease areas such as cancer and high-income countries. Incremental effectiveness was an essential value driver for varied genetic tests but not gene therapy.

Conclusion

Precision medicine's value for money across application types and contexts was difficult to conclude from published studies, which might be subject to systematic bias. The conducting and reporting of CEA of PM should be locally based and standardized for meaningful comparisons.

Group Model Building on causes and interventions for falls in Singapore: insights from a systems thinking approach

BACKGROUND

Falls in older adults are the result of a complex web of interacting causes, that further results in other physical, emotional, and psychological sequelae. A conceptual framework that represents the reciprocal dynamics of these causal factors can enable clinicians, researchers, and policymakers to clarify goals in falls intervention in older adults.

METHODS

A Group Model Building (GMB) exercise was conducted with researchers and clinicians from academic units and public healthcare institutes in Singapore. The aim of the exercise was to produce a shared visual representation of the causal structure for falls and engage in discussions on how current and future falls intervention programmes can address falls in the older adults, especially in the Asian context. It was conducted in four steps: 1) Outlining and prioritising desirable patient outcomes, 2) Conceptual model building, 3) Identifying key intervention elements of effective falls intervention programmes, 4) Mapping of interventions to outcomes. This causal loop diagram (CLD) was then used to generate insights into the current understanding of falls causal relationships, current efforts in falls intervention in Singapore, and used to identify gaps in falls research that could be further advanced in future intervention studies.

RESULTS

Four patient outcomes were identified by the group as key in falls intervention: 1) Falls, 2) Injurious falls, 3) Fear of falling, and 4) Restricted mobility and life space. A CLD of the reciprocal relationships between risk factors and these outcomes are represented in four sub-models: 1) Fear of falling, 2) Injuries associated with falls, 3) Caregiver overprotectiveness, 4) Post-traumatic stress disorder and psychological resilience. Through this GMB exercise, the group gained the following insights: (1) Psychological sequelae of falls is an important falls intervention outcome. (2) The effects of family overprotectiveness, psychological resilience, and PTSD in exacerbating the consequences of falls are not well understood. (3) There is a need to develop multi-component falls interventions to address the multitude of falls and falls related sequelae.

CONCLUSION

This work illustrates the potential of GMB to promote shared understanding of complex healthcare problems and to provide a roadmap for the development of more effective preventive actions.

Evaluating the Value for Money of Precision Medicine from Early Cycle to Market Access: A Comprehensive Review of Approaches and Challenges

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to perform a comprehensive review of modeling approaches and methodological and policy challenges in the economic evaluation (EE) of precision medicine (PM) across clinical stages.

METHODS

First, a systematic review was performed to assess the approaches of EEs in the past 10 years. Next, a targeted review of methodological articles was conducted for methodological and policy challenges in performing EEs of PM. All findings were synthesized into a structured framework that focused on patient population, Intervention, Comparator, Outcome, Time, Equity and ethics, Adaptability and Modeling aspects, named the "PICOTEAM" framework. Finally, a stakeholder consultation was conducted to understand the major determinants of decision making in PM investment.

RESULTS

In 39 methodological articles, we identified major challenges to the EE of PM. These challenges include that PM applications involve complex and evolving clinical decision space, that clinical evidence is sparse because of small subgroups and complex pathways in PM settings, a one-time PM application may have lifetime or intergenerational impacts but long-term evidence is often unavailable, and that equity and ethics concerns are exceptional. In 275 EEs of PM, current approaches did not sufficiently capture the value of PM compared with targeted therapies, nor did they differentiate Early EEs from Conventional EEs. Finally, policy makers perceived the budget impact, cost savings, and cost-effectiveness of PM as the most important determinants in decision making.

CONCLUSIONS

There is an urgent need to modify existing guidelines or develop a new reference case that fits into the new healthcare paradigm of PM to guide decision making in research and development and market access.

Health System Transformation Playbook and Unified Care Model: an integrated design, systems & complexity thinking approach to health system transformation

Health system transformation is a complex journey that often results in unintended consequences. Existing methods to drive health system transformation have intrinsic limitations which impede successful implementation in local contexts. The Health System Transformation Playbook is a design-, systems-, and complexity-thinking enabled methodology to systematically design, prioritize and test health system and services transformation actions, anchored on iterative story telling, model building and pathfinding processes that tackles the scale of socially and technologically complex adaptive systems through time. The Unified Care Model and its associated cascade of models are examples of ongoing application of Health System Transformation Playbook in a regional population health system in Singapore. Use of Health System Transformation Playbook enables stewards of health systems to gain a more systematic and coherent understanding of health systems and services planning and organization development, to accelerate transformation towards people-centered, integrated and value-driven health systems.

Systems modelling as an approach for eliciting the mechanisms for hip fracture recovery among older adults in a participatory stakeholder engagement setting

Introduction

Due to an aging population, the rising prevalence and incidence of hip fractures and the associated health and economic burden present a challenge to healthcare systems worldwide. Studies have shown that a complex interplay of physiological, psychological, and social factors often affects the recovery trajectories of older adults with hip fractures, often complicating the recovery process.

Methods

This research aims to actively engage stakeholders (including doctors, physiotherapists, hip fracture patients, and caregivers) using the systems modeling methodology of Group Model Building (GMB) to elicit the factors that promote or inhibit hip fracture recovery, incorporating a feedback perspective to inform system-wide interventions. Hip fracture stakeholder engagement was facilitated through the Group Model Building approach in a two-half-day workshop of 25 stakeholders. This approach combined different techniques to develop a comprehensive qualitative whole-system view model of the factors that promote or inhibit hip fracture recovery.

Results

A conceptual, qualitative model of the dynamics of hip fracture recovery was developed that draws on stakeholders' personal experiences through a moderated interaction. Stakeholders identified four domains (i.e., expectation formation, rehabilitation, affordability/availability, and resilience building) that play a significant role in the hip fracture recovery journey..

Discussion

The insight that recovery of loss of function due to hip fracture is attributed to (a) the recognition of a gap between pre-fracture physical function and current physical function; and (b) the marshaling of psychological resilience to respond promptly to a physical functional loss via uptake of rehabilitation services is supported by findings and has several policy implications.

Pragmatic multicentre stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial to investigate the effectiveness of community-based falls prevention programme for older adults with falls risk in Singapore: a protocol paper

INTRODUCTION

Falls are an important public health issue with consequences that include injuries, quality of life reduction and high healthcare costs. Studies show that falls prevention strategies are effective in reducing falls rate among community-dwelling older adults. However, the evaluation for effectiveness was usually done in a controlled setting with homogeneous population, and thus may not be generalisable to a wider population. This study aims to evaluate the impact of community falls prevention programmes with group-based strength and balance exercises, on falls risk and health outcomes for older adults with falls risk in Singapore.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a pragmatic closed cohort stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial design study, which involves sequential crossover of clusters from the waitlist control condition to the intervention condition, with the sequence of crossover randomly determined. The intervention will be sequentially rolled out to 12 clusters (a minimum of 5 participants/cluster), over 6 time periods with 8-week intervals in Central and North regions of Singapore. The primary analysis will be conducted under the intention-to-treat principle. A general linear mixed model or generalised estimating equation analysis appropriate for a multilevel longitudinal study incorporating an appropriate error distribution and link function will be used. Markov model will be developed to estimate the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life years and incremental cost per fall prevented from the implementation of falls prevention strategies from a societal perspective. Conditional on there being clinically relevant differences in short-term outcomes, we will implement simulation modelling to project the long-term divergence in trajectories for outcomes and costs using the Markov model.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval has been obtained. Results will be disseminated in publications and other relevant platforms.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04788251.

A Causal View of the Role and Potential Limitations of Capitation in Promoting Whole Health System Performance

For several decades, health systems in developed countries have faced rapidly rising healthcare costs without concomitant improvements in health outcomes. Fee for service (FFS) reimbursement mechanisms (RMs), where health systems are paid based on volume, contribute to this trend. In Singapore, the public health service is trying to curb rising healthcare costs by transitioning from a volume-based RM to a capitated payment for a population within a geographical catchment area. To provide insight into the implications of this transition, we developed a causal loop diagram (CLD) to represent a causal hypothesis of the complex relationship between RM and health system performance. The CLD was developed with input from government policymakers, healthcare institution administrators, and healthcare providers. This work highlights that the causal relationships between government, provider organizations, and physicians involve numerous feedback loops that drive the mix of health services. The CLD clarifies that a FFS RM incentivizes high margin services irrespective of their health benefits. While capitation has the potential to mitigate this reinforcing phenomenon, it is not sufficient to promote service value. This suggests the need to establish robust mechanisms to govern common pool resources while minimizing adverse secondary effects.

Development of a real-world database for asthma and COPD: The SingHealth-Duke-NUS-GSK COPD and Asthma Real-World Evidence (SDG-CARE) collaboration

PURPOSE

The SingHealth-Duke-GlaxoSmithKline COPD and Asthma Real-world Evidence (SDG-CARE) collaboration was formed to accelerate the use of Singaporean real-world evidence in research and clinical care. A centerpiece of the collaboration was to develop a near real-time database from clinical and operational data sources to inform healthcare decision making and research studies on asthma and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD).

METHODS

Our multidisciplinary team, including clinicians, epidemiologists, data scientists, medical informaticians and IT engineers, adopted the hybrid waterfall-agile project management methodology to develop the SingHealth COPD and Asthma Data Mart (SCDM). The SCDM was developed within the organizational data warehouse. It pulls and maps data from various information systems using extract, transform and load (ETL) pipelines. Robust user testing and data verification was also performed to ensure that the business requirements were met and that the ETL pipelines were valid.

RESULTS

The SCDM includes 199 data elements relevant to asthma and COPD. Data verification was performed and found the SCDM to be reliable. As of December 31, 2019, the SCDM contained 36,407 unique patients with asthma and COPD across the spectrum from primary to tertiary care in our healthcare system. The database updates weekly to add new data of existing patients and to include new patients who fulfil the inclusion criteria.

CONCLUSIONS

The SCDM was systematically developed and tested to support the use RWD for clinical and health services research in asthma and COPD. This can serve as a platform to provide research and operational insights to improve the care delivered to our patients.

Developing integration among stakeholders in the primary care networks of Singapore: a qualitative study

BACKGROUND

Integrating healthcare services across and between the different health system levels can be achieved in a few ways; however, examining the social side of integration is essential and challenging. This paper explores the concept of integration perceived by general practitioners (GPs) and primary care network (PCN) representatives from the regional health systems (RHS) in a GP-RHS PCN and their perceived partnership success.

METHODS

In this study, we explored three GP-RHS PCNs in Singapore. We used a qualitative research design and, overall, performed 17 semi-structured in-depth interviews with GPs (n = 11) and PCN representatives (n = 6) from the RHS. All interviews were audiotaped and transcribed verbatim. We conducted thematic analysis to inductively identify themes from the data. Singer's conceptual model of integration types was used as guiding principles to derive relevant and salient themes for integration.

RESULTS

GPs and the RHS perceived the concept of integration through a series of interrelated strategies. Within the normative dimension, a sense of urgency motivated GPs to integrate improvements into their general practice. Participants perceived teamwork and relational climate as appropriate enablers for achieving interpersonal integration in a primary care partnership. While developing a trusted relationship was a perceived success of this partnership across the network, developing camaraderie and gaining knowledge in chronic disease management through the components of functional integration was a perceived success at an individual general practice level. The data also revealed some operational challenges within the structural dimension and some inabilities of the PCN to achieve complete process integration.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study points to multi-faceted integration, comprising various forms that need to be manifested at all levels of care to achieve coordinated, seamless, and comprehensive care for patients suffering from chronic conditions. The present iteration of the PCN has been shown to offer integration at a level that warrants praise but still requires structural and process integration improvement.

An Agile Systems Modeling Framework for Bed Resource Planning During COVID-19 Pandemic in Singapore

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has had a major impact on health systems globally. The sufficiency of hospitals' bed resource is a cornerstone for access to care which can significantly impact the public health outcomes.

Objective

We describe the development of a dynamic simulation framework to support agile resource planning during the COVID-19 pandemic in Singapore.

Materials and Methods

The study data were derived from the Singapore General Hospital and public domain sources over the period from 1 January 2020 till 31 May 2020 covering the period when the initial outbreak and surge of COVID-19 cases in Singapore happened. The simulation models and its variants take into consideration the dynamic evolution of the pandemic and the rapidly evolving policies and processes in Singapore.

Results

The models were calibrated against historical data for the Singapore COVID-19 situation. Several variants of the resource planning model were rapidly developed to adapt to the fast-changing COVID-19 situation in Singapore.

Conclusion

The agility in adaptable models and robust collaborative management structure enabled the quick deployment of human and capital resources to sustain the high level of health services delivery during the COVID-19 surge.

The associations between caregivers’ psychosocial characteristics and caregivers’ depressive symptoms in stroke settings: a cohort study

Background

Studies have found that caregivers can influence stroke survivors’ outcomes, such as mortality. It is thus pertinent to identify significant factors associated with caregivers’ outcomes. The study objective was to examine the associations between caregivers’ psychosocial characteristics and caregivers’ depressive symptoms.

Methods

The analysis obtained three-month and one-year post-stroke data from the Singapore Stroke Study, which was collected from hospital settings. Caregivers’ depressive symptoms were assessed via the Center for Epidemiologic Studies Depression instrument. Psychosocial characteristics of caregivers included subjective burden (Zarit Burden Interview), quality of care-relationship (a modified 3-item scale from the University of Southern California Longitudinal Study of Three-Generation Families) and expressive social support (an 8-item scale from Pearlin et al.). Mixed effect Tobit regressions were used to examine the associations between these study variables.

Results

A total of 214 caregivers of stroke patients hospitalized were included in the final analysis. Most caregivers were Chinese women with secondary school education, unemployed and married to the patients. Caregivers' subjective burden was positively associated with their depressive symptoms (Partial regression coefficient: 0.18, 95% CI 0.11–0.24). Quality of care-relationship (Partial regression coefficient: − 0.35, 95% CI − 0.63 to − 0.06) and expressive social support (partial regression coefficient: − 0.28, 95% CI − 0.37 to − 0.19) were negatively associated with caregivers’ depressive symptoms. Caregivers’ depressive symptoms were higher at three-month post-stroke than one-year post-stroke (Partial regression coefficient: − 1.00, 95% CI − 1.80 to − 0.20).

Conclusion

The study identified subjective burden, quality of care-relationship and expressive social support as significantly associated with caregivers’ depressive symptoms. Caregivers’ communication skills may also play a role in reducing caregivers’ depressive symptoms.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s40359-022-00828-2.

Resuming elective surgery after COVID-19: A simulation modelling framework for guiding the phased opening of operating rooms

OBJECTIVE

To develop a 2-stage discrete events simulation (DES) based framework for the evaluation of elective surgery cancellation strategies and resumption scenarios across multiple operational outcomes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

Study data was derived from the data warehouse and domain knowledge on the operational process of the largest tertiary hospital in Singapore. 34,025 unique cases over 43 operating rooms (ORs) and 18 surgical disciplines performed from 1 January 2019 to 31 May 2020 were extracted for the study. A clustering approach was used in stage 1 of the modelling framework to develop the groups of surgeries that followed distinctive postponement patterns. These clusters were then used as inputs for stage 2 where the DES model was used to evaluate alternative phased resumption strategies considering the outcomes of OR utilization, waiting times to surgeries and the time to clear the backlogs.

RESULTS

The tool enabled us to understand the elective postponement patterns during the COVID-19 partial lockdown period, and evaluate the best phased resumption strategy. Differences in the performance measures were evaluated based on 95% confidence intervals. The results indicate that two of the gradual phased resumption strategies provided lower peak OR and bed utilizations but required a longer time to return to BAU levels. Minimum peak bed demands could also be reduced by approximately 14 beds daily with the gradual resumption strategy, whilst the maximum peak bed demands by approximately 8.2 beds. Peak OR utilization could be reduced to 92% for gradual resumption as compared to a minimum peak of 94.2% with the full resumption strategy.

CONCLUSIONS

The 2-stage modelling framework coupled with a user-friendly visualization interface were key enablers for understanding the elective surgery postponement patterns during a partial lockdown phase. The DES model enabled the identification and evaluation of optimal phased resumption policies across multiple important operational outcome measures.

LAY ABSTRACT

During the height of the COVID-19 pandemic, most healthcare systems suspended their non-urgent elective surgery services. This strategy was undertaken as a means to expand surge capacity, through the preservation of structural resources (such as operating theaters, ICU beds, and ventilators), consumables (such as personal protective equipment and medications), and critical healthcare manpower. As a result, some patients had less-essential surgeries postponed due to the pandemic. As the first wave of the pandemic waned, there was an urgent need to quickly develop optimal strategies for the resumption of these surgeries. We developed a 2-stage discrete events simulation (DES) framework based on 34,025 unique cases over 43 operating rooms (ORs) and 18 surgical disciplines performed from 1 January 2019 to 31 May 2020 captured in the Singapore General Hospital (SGH) enterprise data warehouse. The outcomes evaluated were OR utilization, waiting times to surgeries and time to clear the backlogs. A user-friendly visualization interface was developed to enable decision makers to determine the most promising surgery resumption strategy across these outcomes. Hospitals globally can make use of the modelling framework to adapt to their own surgical systems to evaluate strategies for postponement and resumption of elective surgeries.

Validation and application of a needs-based segmentation tool for cross-country comparisons

OBJECTIVE

To compare countries' health care needs by segmenting populations into a set of needs-based health states.

DATA SOURCES

We used seven waves of the Survey of Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE) panel survey data.

STUDY DESIGN

We developed the Cross-Country Simple Segmentation Tool (CCSST), a validated clinician-administered instrument for categorizing older individuals by distinct, homogeneous health and related social service needs. Using clinical indicators, self-reported physician diagnosis of chronic disease, and performance-based tests conducted during the survey interview, individuals were assigned to 1-5 global impressions (GI) segments and assessed for having any of the four identifiable complicating factors (CFs). We used Cox proportional hazard models to estimate the risk of mortality by segment. First, we show the segmentation cross-sectionally to assess cross-country differences in the fraction of individuals with different levels of medical needs. Second, we compare the differences in the rate at which individuals transition between those levels and death.

DATA COLLECTION/EXTRACTION METHODS

We segmented 270,208 observations (from Austria, Belgium, Czech Republic, Denmark, France, Germany, Greece, Israel, Italy, the Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Sweden, and Switzerland) from 96,396 individuals into GI and CF categories.

PRINCIPAL FINDINGS

The CCSST is a valid tool for segmenting populations into needs-based states, showing Switzerland with the lowest fraction of individuals in high medical needs segments, followed by Denmark and Sweden, and Poland with the highest fraction, followed by Italy and Israel. Comparing hazard ratios of transitioning between health states may help identify country-specific areas for analysis of ecological and cultural risk factors.

CONCLUSIONS

The CCSST is an innovative tool for aggregate cross-country comparisons of both health needs and transitions between them. A cross-country comparison gives policy makers an effective means of comparing national health system performance and provides targeted guidance on how to identify strategies for curbing the rise of high-need, high-cost patients.

Health Services Use and Functional Recovery Following Blunt Trauma in Older Persons - A National Multicentre Prospective Cohort Study

OBJECTIVE

Frailty is associated with morbidity and mortality in older injured patients. However, for older blunt-trauma patients, increased frailty may not manifest in longer length of stay at index admission. We hypothesized that owing to time spent in hospital from readmissions, frailty would be associated with less total time at home in the 1-year postinjury period.

DESIGN

Prospective, nationwide, multicenter cohort study.

SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS

All Singaporean residents aged ≥55 years admitted for blunt trauma with an Injury Severity Score (ISS) or New Injury Severity Score (NISS) ≥10 from March 2016 to July 2018.

METHODS

Frailty (by modified Fried criteria) was assessed at index admission, based on questions on preinjury weight loss, slowness, exhaustion, physical activity, and grip strength at the time of recruitment. Low time at home was defined as >14 hospitalized days within 1 year postinjury. The contribution of planned and unplanned readmission to time at home postinjury was explored. Functional trajectory (by Barthel Index) over 1 year was compared by frailty.

RESULTS

Of the 218 patients recruited, 125 (57.3%) were male, median age was 72 years, and 48 (22.0%) were frail. On univariate analysis, frailty [relative to nonfrail: odds ratio (OR) 3.45, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.33-8.97, P = .01] was associated with low time at home. On multivariable analysis, after inclusion of age, gender, ISS, intensive care unit admission, and surgery at index admission, frailty (OR 5.21, 95% CI 1.77-15.34, P < .01) remained significantly associated with low time at home in the 1-year postinjury period. Unplanned readmissions were the main reason for frail participants having low time at home. Frail participants had poorer function in the 1-year postinjury period.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

In the year following blunt trauma, frail older patients experience lower time at home compared to patients who were not frail at baseline. Screening for frailty should be considered in all older blunt-trauma patients, with a view to being prioritized for postdischarge support.

Long-term quality of life, sexual health and gastrointestinal function following colorectal cancer resection in an Asian cohort

AIM

As populations age and cancer management improves, long-term survivorship and quality-of-life (QOL) outcomes are becoming equally important as oncological results. Data from Asian populations are scarce. We aimed to evaluate the sexual health, gastrointestinal function and QOL amongst colorectal cancer survivors in a tertiary referral centre in Singapore.

METHOD

Adults who had undergone elective curative surgery for non-metastatic colorectal cancer at least 2 years prior were included. Exclusion criteria were cognitive disease, serious postoperative complications or recurrent cancer. Participants were invited to complete the European Organization for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life Questionnaires EORTC-QLQ-C30 and QLQ-CR29. Using multiple bivariate analysis, r scores were used to examine relationship trends between QOL domains and survivor sociodemographic and disease-specific characteristics.

RESULTS

From February 2017 to July 2019, 400 responses were recorded. Median age and follow-up duration were 64 years (range 32-90) and 78 months (interquartile range 49-113) respectively. Patients who had Stage III cancer had better overall QOL scores compared to Stage I/II. Rectal (vs. colon) cancer negatively influenced sexual health and gastrointestinal function, but did not appear to affect overall QOL. Amongst our cohort, 57% (n = 129) of men and 43% (n = 75) of women were sexually active. Markers of socioeconomic status, including employment, education and housing type, were found to significantly impact perception of various aspects of QOL.

CONCLUSION

Knowledge of factors which influence well-being can identify individuals who may benefit from tailored management strategies. Regular patient-doctor contact may play a role in building and maintaining positive perspectives of cancer survivors. Normative data should be obtained from local populations to facilitate future comparative research.

Association between housing type and accelerated biological aging in different sexes: moderating effects of health behaviors

Introduction: Despite associated with multiple geriatric disorders, whether housing type, an indicator of socioeconomic status (SES) and environmental factors, is associated with accelerated biological aging is unknown. Furthermore, although individuals with low-SES have higher body mass index (BMI) and are more likely to smoke, whether BMI and smoking status moderate the association between SES and biological aging is unclear. We examined these questions in urbanized low-SES older community-dwelling adults.

Methods: First, we analyzed complete blood count data using the cox proportional hazards model and derived measures for biological age (BA) and biological age acceleration (BAA, the higher the more accelerated aging) (N = 376). Subsequently, BAA was regressed on housing type, controlling for covariates, including four other SES indicators. Interaction terms between housing type and BMI/smoking status were separately added to examine their moderating effects. Total sample and sex-stratified analyses were performed.

Results: There were significant differences between men and women in housing type and BAA. Compared to residents in ≥3 room public or private housing, older adults resided in 1–2 room public housing had a higher BAA. Furthermore, BMI attenuated the association between housing type and BAA. In sex-stratified analyses, the main and interaction effects were only significant in women. In men, smoking status instead aggravated the association between housing type and BAA.

Conclusion: Controlling for other SES indicators, housing type is an independent socio-environmental determinant of BA and BAA in a low-SES urbanized population. There were also sex differences in the moderating effects of health behaviors on biological aging.

Development and Assessment of an Interpretable Machine Learning Triage Tool for Estimating Mortality After Emergency Admissions

IMPORTANCE

Triage in the emergency department (ED) is a complex clinical judgment based on the tacit understanding of the patient's likelihood of survival, availability of medical resources, and local practices. Although a scoring tool could be valuable in risk stratification, currently available scores have demonstrated limitations.

OBJECTIVES

To develop an interpretable machine learning tool based on a parsimonious list of variables available at ED triage; provide a simple, early, and accurate estimate of patients' risk of death; and evaluate the tool's predictive accuracy compared with several established clinical scores.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

This single-site, retrospective cohort study assessed all ED patients between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2016, who were subsequently admitted to a tertiary hospital in Singapore. The Score for Emergency Risk Prediction (SERP) tool was derived using a machine learning framework. To estimate mortality outcomes after emergency admissions, SERP was compared with several triage systems, including Patient Acuity Category Scale, Modified Early Warning Score, National Early Warning Score, Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage, Rapid Acute Physiology Score, and Rapid Emergency Medicine Score. The initial analyses were completed in October 2020, and additional analyses were conducted in May 2021.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

Three SERP scores, namely SERP-2d, SERP-7d, and SERP-30d, were developed using the primary outcomes of interest of 2-, 7-, and 30-day mortality, respectively. Secondary outcomes included 3-day mortality and inpatient mortality. The SERP's predictive power was measured using the area under the curve in the receiver operating characteristic analysis.

RESULTS

The study included 224 666 ED episodes in the model training cohort (mean [SD] patient age, 63.60 [16.90] years; 113 426 [50.5%] female), 56 167 episodes in the validation cohort (mean [SD] patient age, 63.58 [16.87] years; 28 427 [50.6%] female), and 42 676 episodes in the testing cohort (mean [SD] patient age, 64.85 [16.80] years; 21 556 [50.5%] female). The mortality rates in the training cohort were 0.8% at 2 days, 2.2% at 7 days, and 5.9% at 30 days. In the testing cohort, the areas under the curve of SERP-30d were 0.821 (95% CI, 0.796-0.847) for 2-day mortality, 0.826 (95% CI, 0.811-0.841) for 7-day mortality, and 0.823 (95% CI, 0.814-0.832) for 30-day mortality and outperformed several benchmark scores.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this retrospective cohort study, SERP had better prediction performance than existing triage scores while maintaining easy implementation and ease of ascertainment in the ED. It has the potential to be widely applied and validated in different circumstances and health care settings.

Perceived facilitators and barriers to chronic disease management in primary care networks of Singapore: a qualitative study

OBJECTIVE

The increasing chronic disease burden has placed tremendous strain on tertiary healthcare resources in most countries, necessitating a shift in chronic disease management from tertiary to primary care providers. The Primary Care Network (PCN) policy was promulgated as a model of care to organise private general practitioners (GPs) into groups to provide GPs with resources to anchor patients with chronic conditions with them in the community. As PCN is still in its embryonic stages, there is a void in research regarding its ability to empower GPs to manage patients with chronic conditions effectively. This qualitative study aims to explore the facilitators and barriers for the management of patients with chronic conditions by GPs enrolled in PCN.

DESIGN

We conducted 30 semistructured interviews with GPs enrolled in a PCN followed by a thematic analysis of audio transcripts until data saturation was achieved.

SETTING

Singapore.

RESULTS

Our results suggest that PCNs facilitated GPs to more effectively manage patients through (1) provision of ancillary services such as diabetic foot screening, diabetic retinal photography and nurse counselling to permit a 'one-stop-shop', (2) systematic monitoring of process and clinical outcome indicators through a chronic disease registry (CDR) to promote accountability for patients' health outcomes and (3) funding streams for PCNs to hire additional manpower to oversee operations and to reimburse GPs for extended consultations. Barriers include high administrative load in maintaining the CDR due to the lack of a smart electronic clinic management system and financial gradient faced by patients seeking services from private GPs which incur higher out-of-pocket expenses than public primary healthcare institutions.

CONCLUSION

PCNs demonstrate great promise in empowering enrolled GPs to manage patients with chronic conditions. However, barriers will need to be addressed to ensure the viability of PCNs in managing more patients in the face of an ageing population.

The effectiveness of public health interventions against COVID-19: Lessons from the Singapore experience

Background

In dealing with community spread of COVID-19, two active interventions have been attempted or advocated—containment, and mitigation. Given the extensive impact of COVID-19 globally, there is international interest to learn from best practices that have been shown to work in controlling community spread to inform future outbreaks. This study explores the trajectory of COVID-19 infection in Singapore had the government intervention not focused on containment, but rather on mitigation. In addition, we estimate the actual COVID-19 infection cases in Singapore, given that confirmed cases are publicly available.

Methods and findings

We developed a COVID-19 infection model, which is a modified SIR model that differentiate between detected (diagnosed) and undetected (undiagnosed) individuals and segments total population into seven health states: susceptible (S), infected asymptomatic undiagnosed (A), infected asymptomatic diagnosed (I), infected symptomatic undiagnosed (U), infected symptomatic diagnosed (E), recovered (R), and dead (D). To account for the infection stages of the asymptomatic and symptomatic infected individuals, the asymptomatic infected individuals were further disaggregated into three infection stages: (a) latent (b) infectious and (c) non-infectious; while the symptomatic infected were disaggregated into two stages: (a) infectious and (b) non-infectious. The simulation result shows that by the end of the current epidemic cycle without considering the possibility of a second wave, under the containment intervention implemented in Singapore, the confirmed number of Singaporeans infected with COVID-19 (diagnosed asymptomatic and symptomatic cases) is projected to be 52,053 (with 95% confidence range of 49,370–54,735) representing 0.87% (0.83%-0.92%) of the total population; while the actual number of Singaporeans infected with COVID-19 (diagnosed and undiagnosed asymptomatic and symptomatic infected cases) is projected to be 86,041 (81,097–90,986), which is 1.65 times the confirmed cases and represents 1.45% (1.36%-1.53%) of the total population. A peak in infected cases is projected to have occurred on around day 125 (27/05/2020) for the confirmed infected cases and around day 115 (17/05/2020) for the actual infected cases. The number of deaths is estimated to be 37 (34–39) among those infected with COVID-19 by the end of the epidemic cycle; consequently, the perceived case fatality rate is projected to be 0.07%, while the actual case fatality rate is estimated to be 0.043%. Importantly, our simulation model results suggest that there about 65% more COVID-19 infection cases in Singapore that have not been captured in the official reported numbers which could be uncovered via a serological study. Compared to the containment intervention, a mitigation intervention would have resulted in early peak infection, and increase both the cumulative confirmed and actual infection cases and deaths.

Conclusion

Early public health measures in the context of targeted, aggressive containment including swift and effective contact tracing and quarantine, was likely responsible for suppressing the number of COVID-19 infections in Singapore.

Primary Care Networks and Starfield's 4Cs: A Case for Enhanced Chronic Disease Management

The primary care network (PCN) was implemented as a healthcare delivery model which organises private general practitioners (GPs) into groups and furnished with a certain level of resources for chronic disease management. A secondary qualitative analysis was conducted with data from an earlier study exploring facilitators and barriers GPs enrolled in PCN's face in chronic disease management. The objective of this study is to map features of PCN to Starfield's "4Cs" framework. The "4Cs" of primary care-comprehensiveness, first contact access, coordination and continuity-offer high-quality design options for chronic disease management. Interview transcripts of GPs (n = 30) from the original study were purposefully selected. Provision of ancillary services, manpower, a chronic disease registry and extended operating hours of GP practices demonstrated PCN's empowering features that fulfil the "4Cs". On the contrary, operational challenges such as the lack of an integrated electronic medical record and disproportionate GP payment structures limit PCNs from maximising the "4Cs". However, the enabling features mentioned above outweighs the shortfalls in all important aspects of delivering optimal chronic disease care. Therefore, even though PCN is in its early stage of development, it has shown to be well poised to steer GPs towards enhanced chronic disease management.

The Missed Opportunity of Patient-Centered Medical Homes to Thrive in an Asian Context

In recent years, there is growing interest internationally to implement patient-centered medical homes (PCMHs), and Singapore is no exception. However, studies understanding the influence of contextual policy factors on the implementation of PCMHs are limited. We conducted 10 semi-structured in-depth interviews with general practitioners working in seven out of the nine PCMHs. Audio recordings were transcribed and analyzed by two study team members in NVivo 12 Software using grounded theory techniques. Power dynamics between the stakeholders and lack of shared decision-making among them in selecting the locale of the PCMH and formulating the practice fee and pharmacy structure were the key factors which negatively affected the implementation of PCMHs on a larger scale. Over time, lack of funding to hire dedicated staff to transfer patients and misalignment of various stakeholders’ interest to other right-siting programs also resulted in low number of patients with chronic conditions and revenue. Countries seeking to implement a successful PCMH may benefit from building trust and relationship between stakeholders, engaging in shared decision-making, ongoing cost-efficiency efforts, and formulating a clear delineation of responsibilities between stakeholders. For a healthcare delivery model to succeed in the primary care landscape, policies should be developed keeping mind the realities of primary care practice.

Modeling Emergency Department crowding: Restoring the balance between demand for and supply of emergency medicine

Emergency Departments (EDs) worldwide are confronted with rising patient volumes causing significant strains on both Emergency Medicine and entire healthcare systems. Consequently, many EDs are in a situation where the number of patients in the ED is temporarily beyond the capacity for which the ED is designed and resourced to manage-a phenomenon called Emergency Department (ED) crowding. ED crowding can impair the quality of care delivered to patients and lead to longer patient waiting times for ED doctor's consult (time to provider) and admission to the hospital ward. In Singapore, total ED attendance at public hospitals has grown significantly, that is, roughly 5.57% per year between 2005 and 2016 and, therefore, emergency physicians have to cope with patient volumes above the safe workload. The purpose of this study is to create a virtual ED that closely maps the processes of a hospital-based ED in Singapore using system dynamics, that is, a computer simulation method, in order to visualize, simulate, and improve patient flows within the ED. Based on the simulation model (virtual ED), we analyze four policies: (i) co-location of primary care services within the ED, (ii) increase in the capacity of doctors, (iii) a more efficient patient transfer to inpatient hospital wards, and (iv) a combination of policies (i) to (iii). Among the tested policies, the co-location of primary care services has the largest impact on patients' average length of stay (ALOS) in the ED. This implies that decanting non-emergency lower acuity patients from the ED to an adjacent primary care clinic significantly relieves the burden on ED operations. Generally, in Singapore, there is a tendency to strengthen primary care and to educate patients to see their general practitioners first in case of non-life threatening, acute illness.

Novel metabolomics markers are associated with pre-clinical decline in hand grip strength in community-dwelling older adults

BACKGROUND

Hand grip strength (HGS) has been proposed as a robust predictor for frailty and sarcopenia. Hence, identifying biomarkers for declining HGS accompanying aging could deepen our understanding of the biological underpinnings, informing pre-emptive intervention. Acylcarnitines (ACs) are metabolites generated by fatty acid metabolism in the mitochondria and are dysregulated in multiple disorders affecting the musculature. However, they have not been comprehensively profiled and examined regarding their utility in predicting variability in declining HGS, longitudinally. Thus, we aimed to: 1) validate previous findings on insignificant cross-sectional association between ACs and HGS, and 2) examine whether baseline ACs were associated with both decline and variability in HGS over 18 months, in community-dwelling older adults.

METHODS

We included participants who had HGS measured with dynamometer longitudinally (N = 121). We quantified ACs by targeted plasma metabolomics profiling. Multivariable linear regressions were then performed.

RESULTS

Cross-sectionally, ACs were not significantly associated with HGS. Longitudinally, baseline short-chain dicarboxylic and hydroxylated acylcarnitines (AC-DC/-OH) levels were inversely associated with and significantly explained the variability in 18-month decline in HGS. A specific AC species, the C4-OH, accounted for most of the variance explained.

CONCLUSIONS

We showed novel biomarkers for declining HGS, furthering molecular understanding and informing nutritional pre-emptive programs.

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19): an evidence map of medical literature

BACKGROUND

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 outbreak in December 2019, a substantial body of COVID-19 medical literature has been generated. As of June 2020, gaps and longitudinal trends in the COVID-19 medical literature remain unidentified, despite potential benefits for research prioritisation and policy setting in both the COVID-19 pandemic and future large-scale public health crises.

METHODS

In this paper, we searched PubMed and Embase for medical literature on COVID-19 between 1 January and 24 March 2020. We characterised the growth of the early COVID-19 medical literature using evidence maps and bibliometric analyses to elicit cross-sectional and longitudinal trends and systematically identify gaps.

RESULTS

The early COVID-19 medical literature originated primarily from Asia and focused mainly on clinical features and diagnosis of the disease. Many areas of potential research remain underexplored, such as mental health, the use of novel technologies and artificial intelligence, pathophysiology of COVID-19 within different body systems, and indirect effects of COVID-19 on the care of non-COVID-19 patients. Few articles involved research collaboration at the international level (24.7%). The median submission-to-publication duration was 8 days (interquartile range: 4-16).

CONCLUSIONS

Although in its early phase, COVID-19 research has generated a large volume of publications. However, there are still knowledge gaps yet to be filled and areas for improvement for the global research community. Our analysis of early COVID-19 research may be valuable in informing research prioritisation and policy planning both in the current COVID-19 pandemic and similar global health crises.

Dyadic approach to supervised community rehabilitation participation in an Asian setting post-stroke: exploring the role of caregiver and patient characteristics in a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To study the association of caregiver factors and stroke survivor factors with supervised community rehabilitation (SCR) participation over the first 3 months and subsequent 3 to 12 months post-stroke in an Asian setting.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Community setting.

PARTICIPANTS

We recruited stroke survivors and their caregivers into our yearlong cohort. Caregiver and stroke survivor variables were collected over 3-monthly intervals. We performed logistic regression with the outcome variable being SCR participation post-stroke.

OUTCOME MEASURES

SCR participation over the first 3 months and subsequent 3 to 12 months post-stroke RESULTS: 251 stroke survivor-caregiver dyads were available for the current analysis. The mean age of caregivers was 50.1 years, with the majority being female, married and co-residing with the stroke survivor. There were 61%, 28%, 4% and 7% of spousal, adult-child, sibling and other caregivers. The odds of SCR participation decreased by about 15% for every unit increase in caregiver-reported stroke survivor's disruptive behaviour score (OR: 0.845; 95% CI: 0.769 to 0.929). For every 1-unit increase in the caregiver's positive management strategy score, the odds of using SCR service increased by about 4% (OR: 1.039; 95% CI: 1.011 to 1.068).

CONCLUSION

We established that SCR participation is jointly determined by both caregiver and stroke survivor factors, with factors varying over the early and late post-stroke period. Our results support the adoption of a dyadic or more inclusive approach for studying the utilisation of community rehabilitation services, giving due consideration to both the stroke survivors and their caregivers. Adopting a stroke survivor-caregiver dyadic approach in practice settings should include promotion of positive care management strategies, comprehensive caregiving training including both physical and behavioural dimensions, active engagement of caregivers in rehabilitation journey and conducting regular caregiver needs assessments in the community.

Emergency medical services use and its association with acute ischaemic stroke evaluation and treatment in Singapore

Background

Emergency medical services (EMS) is a critical link in the chain of stroke survival. We aimed to assess EMS use for stroke in Singapore, identify characteristics associated with EMS use and the association of EMS use with stroke evaluation and treatment.

Methods

The Singapore Stroke Registry combines nationwide EMS and public hospital data for stroke cases in Singapore. Multivariate regressions with the generalised estimating equations were performed to examine the association between EMS use and timely stroke evaluation and treatment.

Results

Of 3555 acute ischaemic patients with symptom onset within 24 hours admitted to all five public hospitals between 2015 and 2016, 68% arrived via EMS. Patients who used EMS were older, were less likely to be female, had higher stroke severity by National Institute of Health Stroke Scale and had a higher prevalence of atrial fibrillation or peripheral arterial disease. Patients transported by EMS were more likely to receive rapid evaluation (door-to-imaging time ≤25 min 34.3% vs 11.1%, OR=2.74 (95% CI 1.40 to 5.38)) and were more likely to receive intravenous tissue plasminogen activator (tPA, 22.8% vs 4.6%, OR=4.61 (95% CI 3.52 to 6.03)). Among patients treated with tPA, patients who arrived via EMS were more likely to receive timely treatment than self-transported patients (door-to-needle time ≤60 min 52.6% vs 29.4%, OR=2.58 (95% CI 1.35 to 4.92)).

Conclusions

EMS use is associated with timely stroke evaluation and treatment in Singapore. Seamless EMS-Hospital stroke pathways and targeted public campaigns to advocate for appropriate EMS use have the potential to improve acute stroke care.

Effects of Self-Care for Older PErsons (SCOPE) on Functional and Physiological Measures: A Cluster Randomized Controlled Trial

Background: Population aging poses unprecedented demands on the healthcare system. There is also a scarcity of evidence on self-care intervention to improve objective measures of morbidity and aging-associated functional and physiological measures in a low-income multi-ethnic population setting. Methods: We conducted a cluster randomized controlled trial (ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier: NCT01672177) to examine the effects of the Self-Care for Older PErsons (SCOPE) program. We randomized 14 Senior Activity Centers and randomly selected older adults within these centers. Functional and physiological measurements were performed at baseline, 10-month, and 18-month periods. The primary outcome was a composite of three morbidity-specific measures, which include hemoglobin A1c (HbA1C), peak expiratory flow, and systolic blood pressure. Aging-associated functional and physiological measures were examined as secondary outcomes. Repeated-measure mixed models were employed to examine the effects of SCOPE on these measures. Results: 378 community-dwelling older adults participated in either the treatment (n= 164) or the control arm (n = 214). The primary outcome was not significantly improved. For the secondary outcomes, SCOPE participants demonstrated slower oxygen desaturation at an 18-month period (p = 0.001), improved time to complete the chair-stand test (p < 0.001) at a 10-month period with the effect persisting at the 18-month period (p < 0.001). SCOPE participants also had significantly improved vitamin B₁₂ levels at the 18-month period (p < 0.001), increased hemoglobin concentration (p < 0.001), decreased mean corpuscular volume (p = 0.001), and decreased creatinine (p = 0.002) at the 10-month period. Conclusions: SCOPE did not improve morbidity-specific measures. However, it improved several aging-associated measures implicated in geriatric syndromes. This study highlights the potential of a self-care program in the prevention of geriatric syndromes in community-dwelling older adults, while emphasizing self-management to manage existing morbidities.

Do healthcare needs-based population segments predict outcomes among the elderly? Findings from a prospective cohort study in an urbanized low-income community

Background

A rapidly ageing population with increasing prevalence of chronic disease presents policymakers the urgent task of tailoring healthcare services to optimally meet changing needs. While healthcare needs-based segmentation is a promising approach to efficiently assessing and responding to healthcare needs at the population level, it is not clear how available schemes perform in the context of community-based surveys administered by non-medically trained personnel. The aim of this prospective cohort, community setting study is to evaluate 4 segmentation schemes in terms of practicality and predictive validity for future health outcomes and service utilization.

Methods

A cohort was identified from a cross-sectional health and social characteristics survey of Singapore public rental housing residents aged 60 years and above. Baseline survey data was used to assign individuals into segments as defined by 4 predefined population segmentation schemes developed in Singapore, Delaware, Lombardy and North-West London. From electronic data records, mortality, hospital admissions, emergency department visits, and specialist outpatient clinic visits were assessed for 180 days after baseline segment assignment and compared to segment membership for each segmentation scheme.

Results

Of 1324 residents contacted, 928 agreed to participate in the survey (70% response). All subjects could be assigned an exclusive segment for each segmentation scheme. Individuals in more severe segments tended to have lower quality of life as assessed by the EQ-5D Index for health utility. All population segmentation schemes were observed to exhibit an ability to differentiate different levels of mortality and healthcare utilization.

Conclusions

It is practical to assign individuals to healthcare needs-based population segments through community surveys by non-medically trained personnel. The resulting segments for all 4 schemes evaluated in this way have an ability to predict health outcomes and utilization over the medium term (180 days), with significant overlap for some segments. Healthcare needs-based segmentation schemes which are designed to guide action hold particular promise for promoting efficient allocation of services to meet the needs of salient population groups. Further evaluation is needed to determine if these schemes also predict responsiveness to interventions to meet needs implied by segment membership.

Novel model for predicting inpatient mortality after emergency admission to hospital in Singapore: retrospective observational study

OBJECTIVES

To identify risk factors for inpatient mortality after patients' emergency admission and to create a novel model predicting inpatient mortality risk.

DESIGN

This was a retrospective observational study using data extracted from electronic health records (EHRs). The data were randomly split into a derivation set and a validation set. The stepwise model selection was employed. We compared our model with one of the current clinical scores, Cardiac Arrest Risk Triage (CART) score.

SETTING

A single tertiary hospital in Singapore.

PARTICIPANTS

All adult hospitalised patients, admitted via emergency department (ED) from 1 January 2008 to 31 October 2017 (n=433 187 by admission episodes).

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE

The primary outcome of interest was inpatient mortality following this admission episode. The area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve of the predictive model with sensitivity and specificity for optimised cut-offs.

RESULTS

15 758 (3.64%) of the episodes were observed inpatient mortality. 19 variables were observed as significant predictors and were included in our final regression model. Our predictive model outperformed the CART score in terms of predictive power. The AUC of CART score and our final model was 0.705 (95% CI 0.697 to 0.714) and 0.817 (95% CI 0.810 to 0.824), respectively.

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated a model for inpatient mortality using EHR data collected in the ED. The performance of our model was more accurate than the CART score. Implementation of our model in the hospital can potentially predict imminent adverse events and institute appropriate clinical management.

Population segmentation based on healthcare needs: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Healthcare needs-based population segmentation is a promising approach for enabling the development and evaluation of integrated healthcare service models that meet healthcare needs. However, healthcare policymakers interested in understanding adult population healthcare needs may not be aware of suitable population segmentation tools available for use in the literature and barring better-known alternatives, may reinvent the wheel by creating and validating their own tools rather than adapting available tools in the literature. Therefore, we undertook a systematic review to identify all available tools which operationalize healthcare need-based population segmentation, to help inform policymakers developing population-level health service programmes.

METHODS

Using search terms reflecting concepts of population, healthcare need and segmentation, we systematically reviewed and included articles containing healthcare need-based adult population segmentation tools in PubMed, CINAHL and Web of Science databases. We included tools comprising mutually exclusive segments with prognostic value for clinically relevant outcomes. An updated secondary search on the PubMed database was also conducted as the last search was conducted 2 years ago. All identified tools were characterized in terms of segment formulation, segmentation base, whether they received peer-reviewed validation, requirement for comprehensive electronic medical records, proprietary status and number of segments.

RESULTS

A total of 16 unique tools were identified from systematically reviewing 9970 articles. Peer-reviewed validation studies were found for 9 of these tools.

DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSIONS

The underlying segmentation basis of most identified tools was found to be conceptually comparable to each other which suggests a broad recognition of archetypical patient overall healthcare need profiles. While many tools operate based on administrative record data, it is noted that healthcare systems without comprehensive electronic medical records would benefit from tools which segment populations through primary data collection. Future work could therefore include development and validation of such primary data collection-based tools. While this study is limited by exclusion of non-English literature, the identified and characterized tools will nonetheless facilitate efforts by policymakers to improve patient-centred care through development and evaluation of services tailored for specific populations segmented by these tools.

Pre-discharge prognostic factors of physical function among older adults with hip fracture surgery: a systematic review

INTRODUCTION

To identify, organize, and assess the evidence level of pre-discharge prognostic factors of physical function beyond discharge after hip fracture surgery.

METHODS

We performed a systematic search of four databases (PubMed, Embase, CINAHL, PsycINFO) for longitudinal studies of prognostic factors of physical function at ≥ 1 month among older adults ≥ 50 years old with surgically treated hip fracture, complemented with hand-searching. Two reviewers independently screened papers for inclusion and assessed the quality of all the included papers using the Quality in Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool. We assigned the evidence level for each prognostic factor based on consistency in findings and study quality.

RESULTS

From 98 papers that met our inclusion criteria, we identified 107 pre-discharge prognostic factors and organized them into the following seven categories: demographic, physical, cognitive, psychosocial, socioeconomic, injury-related, and process of care. Potentially modifiable factors with strong or moderate evidence of an association included total length of stay, physical function at discharge, and grip strength. Factors with strong or moderate evidence of no association included gender, fracture type, and time to surgery. Factors with limited, conflicting, or inconclusive evidence included body-mass index, psychological resilience, depression, and anxiety.

CONCLUSIONS

Our findings highlight potentially modifiable prognostic factors that could be targeted and non-modifiable prognostic factors that could be used to identify patients who may benefit from more intensive intervention or to advise patients on their expectations on recovery. Examining the efficacies of existing interventions targeting these prognostic factors would inform future studies and whether any of such interventions could be incorporated into clinical practice.

Associations between superoxide dismutase, malondialdehyde and all-cause mortality in older adults: a community-based cohort study

BACKGROUND

Oxidative stress is an important theory of aging but population-based evidence has been lacking. This study aimed to evaluate the associations between biomarkers of oxidative stress, including plasma superoxide dismutase (SOD) activity and malondialdehyde (MDA), with all-cause mortality in older adults.

METHODS

This is a community-based cohort study of 2224 participants (women:1227, median age: 86 years). We included individuals aged 65 or above and with plasma SOD activity and/or MDA tests at baseline. We evaluated the hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) by multivariable Cox models.

RESULTS

We documented 858 deaths during six years of follow-up. There was a significant interaction effect of sex with the association between SOD activity and mortality (P < 0.001). Compared with the lowest quintile, the risk of all-cause mortality was inversely associated with increasing quintiles of plasma SOD activity in women(P-trend< 0.001), with adjusted HRs for the second through fifth quintiles of 0.73 (95% CI 0.53-1.02), 0.52(95% CI 0.38-0.72), 0.53(95% CI 0.39-0.73), and 0.48(95% CI 0.35-0.66). There were no significant associations between SOD activity and mortality in men (P-trend = 0.64), and between MDA and mortality in all participants (P-trend = 0.79).

CONCLUSIONS

Increased activity of SOD was independently associated with lower all-cause mortality in older women but not in men. This epidemiological study lent support for the free radical/oxidative stress theory of aging.

Health-related quality of life loss associated with first-time stroke

OBJECTIVES

This study aimed to quantify health-related quality of life (HRQoL) loss associated with first episode of stroke by comparing patient-reported HRQoL before and after stroke onset. The impact of stroke in local population was also evaluated by comparing the pre- and post-stroke HRQoL with that of the general population.

METHODS

The HRQoL of stroke survivors was assessed with the EQ-5D-3L index score at recruitment, for recalled pre-stroke HRQoL, and at 3 and 12 month post-stroke. Change in HRQoL from pre-stroke to 3 and 12 month was self-reported by 285 and 238 patients, respectively. Mean EQ index score at each time point (baseline: 464 patients; 3 month post-stroke: 306 patients; 12 month post-stroke: 258 patients) was compared with published population norms for EQ-5D-3L.

RESULTS

There was a significant decrease in HRQoL at 3 (0.25) and 12 month (0.09) post-stroke when compared to the retrospectively recalled patients' mean pre-stroke HRQoL level (0.87). The reduction at 3 month was associated with the reduction in all EQ-5D-3L health dimensions; reductions remaining at 12 month were limited to dimensions of mobility, self-care, usual activities, and anxiety/depression. Stroke patients had a lower mean EQ index than the general population by 0.07 points pre-stroke (0.87 vs. 0.94), 0.33 points at 3 month (0.61 vs. 0.94) and 0.18 points at 12 month (0.76 vs. 0.94) post-stroke.

CONCLUSIONS

Stroke has a substantial impact on HRQoL in Singapore, especially in the first three months post-stroke. Compared to the general population, stroke survivors have lower HRQoL even before stroke onset. This pre-stroke deficit in HRQoL should be taken into account when quantifying health burden of stroke or setting goals for stroke rehabilitation.

Can we understand population healthcare needs using electronic medical records?

INTRODUCTION

The identification of population-level healthcare needs using hospital electronic medical records (EMRs) is a promising approach for the evaluation and development of tailored healthcare services. Population segmentation based on healthcare needs may be possible using information on health and social service needs from EMRs. However, it is currently unknown if EMRs from restructured hospitals in Singapore provide information of sufficient quality for this purpose. We compared the inter-rater reliability between a population segment that was assigned prospectively and one that was assigned retrospectively based on EMR review.

METHODS

200 non-critical patients aged ≥ 55 years were prospectively evaluated by clinicians for their healthcare needs in the emergency department at Singapore General Hospital, Singapore. Trained clinician raters with no prior knowledge of these patients subsequently accessed the EMR up to the prospective rating date. A similar healthcare needs evaluation was conducted using the EMR. The inter-rater reliability between the two rating sets was evaluated using Cohen's Kappa and the incidence of missing information was tabulated.

RESULTS

The inter-rater reliability for the medical 'global impression' rating was 0.37 for doctors and 0.35 for nurses. The inter-rater reliability for the same variable, retrospectively rated by two doctors, was 0.75. Variables with a higher incidence of missing EMR information such as 'social support in case of need' and 'patient activation' had poorer inter-rater reliability.

CONCLUSION

Pre-existing EMR systems may not capture sufficient information for reliable determination of healthcare needs. Thus, we should consider integrating policy-relevant healthcare need variables into EMRs.

Can acute clinical outcomes predict health-related quality of life after stroke: a one-year prospective study of stroke survivors

BACKGROUND

Health-related quality of life (HRQoL) is a key metric to understand the impact of stroke from patients' perspective. Yet HRQoL is not readily measured in clinical practice. This study aims to investigate the extent to which clinical outcomes during admission predict HRQoL at 3 months and 1 year post-stroke.

METHODS

Stroke patients admitted to five tertiary hospitals in Singapore were assessed with Shah-modified Barthel Index (Shah-mBI), National Institute of Health Stroke Scale (NIHSS), Modified Rankin Scale (mRS), Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE), and Frontal Assessment Battery (FAB) before discharge, and the EQ-5D questionnaire at 3 months and 12 months post-stroke. Association of clinical measures with the EQ index at both time points was examined using multiple linear regression models. Forward stepwise selection was applied and consistently significant clinical measures were analyzed for their association with individual dimensions of EQ-5D in multiple logistic regressions.

RESULTS

All five clinical measures at baseline were significant predictors of the EQ index at 3 months and 12 months, except that MMSE was not significantly associated with the EQ index at 12 months. NIHSS (3-month standardized β = - 0.111; 12-month standardized β = - 0.109) and mRS (3-month standardized β = - 0.122; 12-month standardized β = - 0.080) were shown to have a larger effect size than other measures. The contribution of NIHSS and mRS as significant predictors of HRQoL was mostly explained by their association with the mobility, self-care, and usual activities dimensions of EQ-5D.

CONCLUSIONS

HRQoL at 3 months and 12 months post-stroke can be predicted by clinical outcomes in the acute phase. NIHSS and mRS are better predictors than BI, MMSE, and FAB.

One-year and three-year mortality prediction in adult major blunt trauma survivors: a National Retrospective Cohort Analysis

Background

Survivors of trauma are at increased risk of dying after discharge. Studies have found that age, head injury, injury severity, falls and co-morbidities predict long-term mortality. The objective of our study was to build a nomogram predictor of 1-year and 3-year mortality for major blunt trauma adult survivors of the index hospitalization.

Methods

Using data from the Singapore National Trauma Registry, 2011–2013, we analyzed adults aged 18 and over, admitted after blunt injury, with an injury severity score (ISS) of 12 or more, who survived the index hospitalization, linked to death registry data. The study population was randomly divided 60/40 into separate construction and validation datasets, with the model built in the construction dataset, then tested in the validation dataset. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze 1-year and 3-year mortality.

Results

Of the 3414 blunt trauma survivors, 247 (7.2%) died within 1 year, and 551 (16.1%) died within 3 years of injury. Age (OR 1.06, 95% CI 1.05–1.07, p < 0.001), male gender (OR 1.53, 95% CI 1.12–2.10, p < 0.01), low fall from 0.5 m or less (OR 3.48, 95% CI 2.06–5.87, p < 0.001), Charlson comorbidity index of 2 or more (OR 2.26, 95% CI 1.38–3.70, p < 0.01), diabetes (OR 1.31, 95% CI 1.68–2.52, p = 0.04), cancer (OR 1.76, 95% CI 0.94–3.32, p = 0.08), head and neck AIS 3 or more (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.13–2.84, p = 0.01), length of hospitalization of 30 days or more (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.02–3.86, p = 0.04) were predictors of 1-year mortality. This model had a c-statistic of 0.85. Similar factors were found significant for the model predictor of 3-year mortality, which had a c-statistic of 0.83. Both models were validated on the second dataset, with an overall accuracy of 0.94 and 0.84 for 1-year and 3-year mortality respectively.

Conclusions

Adult survivors of major blunt trauma can be risk-stratified at discharge for long-term support.

Complexities and Challenges of Singapore Nurses Providing Postacute Home Care in Multicultural Communities: A Grounded Theory Study

INTRODUCTION

Studies are needed to inform the preparation of community nurses to address patient behavioral and social factors contributing to unnecessary readmissions to hospital. This study uses nurses' input to understand challenges faced during home care, to derive a framework to address the challenges.

METHODS

Semistructured interviews were conducted to saturation with 16 community nurses in Singapore. Interviews were transcribed verbatim and transcripts independently coded for emergent themes. Themes were interpreted using grounded theory.

RESULTS

Seven major themes emerged from 16 interviews: Strained social relationships, complex care decision-making processes within families, communication barriers, patient's or caregiver neglect of health issues, building and maintaining trust, trial-and-error nature of work, and dealing with uncertainty.

DISCUSSION

Community nurses identified uncertainty arising from complexities in social-relational, personal, and organizational factors as a central challenge. Nursing education should focus on navigating and managing uncertainty at the personal, patient, and family levels.

A U-shaped Association Between Blood Pressure and Cognitive Impairment in Chinese Elderly

OBJECTIVES

Higher or lower blood pressure may relate to cognitive impairment, whereas the relationship between blood pressure and cognitive impairment among the elderly is not well-studied. The study objective was to determine whether blood pressure is associated with cognitive impairment in the elderly, and, if so, to accurately describe the association.

DESIGN

Cross-sectional data from the sixth wave of the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) conducted in 2011.

SETTING

Community-based setting in longevity areas in China.

PARTICIPANTS

A total of 7144 Chinese elderly aged 65 years and older were included in the sample.

MEASURES

Systolic blood pressures (SBP) and diastolic blood pressures (DBP) were measured, pulse pressure (PP) was calculated as (SBP) - (DBP) and mean arterial pressures (MAP) was calculated as 1/3(SBP) + 2/3(DBP). Cognitive function was assessed via a validated Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE).

RESULTS

Based on the results of generalized additive models (GAMs), U-shaped associations were identified between cognitive impairment and SBP, DBP, PP, and MAP. The cutpoints at which risk for cognitive impairment (MMSE <24) was minimized were determined by quadratic models as 141 mm Hg, 85 mm Hg, 62 mm Hg, and 103 mm Hg, respectively. In the logistic models, U-shaped associations remained for SBP, DBP, and MAP but not PP. Below the identified cutpoints, each 1-mm Hg decrease in blood pressure corresponded to 0.7%, 1.1%, and 1.1% greater risk in the risk of cognitive impairment, respectively. Above the cutpoints, each 1-mm Hg increase in blood pressure corresponded to 1.2%, 1.8%, and 2.1% greater risk of cognitive impairment for SBP, DBP, and MAP, respectively.

CONCLUSION

A U-shaped association between blood pressure and cognitive function in an elderly Chinese population was found. Recognition of these instances is important in identifying the high-risk population for cognitive impairment and to individualize blood pressure management for cognitive impairment prevention.

Serum Cholesterol Levels within the High Normal Range Are Associated with Better Cognitive Performance among Chinese Elderly

OBJECTIVES

The association between cognitive function and cholesterol levels is poorly understood and inconsistent results exist among the elderly. The purpose of this study is to investigate the association of cholesterol level with cognitive performance among Chinese elderly.

DESIGN

A cross-sectional study was implemented in 2012 and data were analyzed using generalized additive models, linear regression models and logistic regression models.

SETTING

Community-based setting in eight longevity areas in China.

SUBJECTS

A total of 2000 elderly aged 65 years and over (mean 85.8±12.0 years) participated in this study.

MEASUREMENTS

Total cholesterol (TC), triglycerides (TG), low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) and high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) concentration were determined and cognitive impairment was defined as Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) score ≤23.

RESULTS

There was a significant positive linear association between TC, TG, LDL-C, HDL-C and MMSE score in linear regression models. Each 1 mmol/L increase in TC, TG, LDL-C and HDL-C corresponded to a decreased risk of cognitive impairment in logistic regression models. Compared with the lowest tertile, the highest tertile of TC, LDL-C and HDL-C had a lower risk of cognitive impairment. The adjusted odds ratios and 95% CI were 0.73(0.62-0.84) for TC, 0.81(0.70-0.94) for LDL-C and 0.81(0.70-0.94) for HDL-C. There was no gender difference in the protective effects of high TC and LDL-C levels on cognitive impairment. However, for high HDL-C levels the effect was only observed in women. High TC, LDL-C and HDL-C levels were associated with lower risk of cognitive impairment in the oldest old (aged 80 and older), but not in the younger elderly (aged 65 to 79 years).

CONCLUSIONS

These findings suggest that cholesterol levels within the high normal range are associated with better cognitive performance in Chinese elderly, specifically in the oldest old. With further validation, low cholesterol may serve a clinical indicator of risk for cognitive impairment in the elderly.

Cost of multiple sclerosis by level of disability: a review of literature

We performed a review of the economic literature to identify what is known about the relationship between Expanded Disability Status Scale (EDSS) categories and cost of multiple sclerosis (MS). We sought cohort studies of patients with multiple sclerosis that described the costs attributed to each EDSS score and utilized specific inclusion criteria for the selection of 10 studies. We found that both direct and indirect costs rise continuously with increasing EDSS category, and this rise is qualitatively exponential. The rise in indirect costs appears at lower EDSS scores. The cost of a relapse occurring in any given EDSS category exceeds that associated with that particular EDSS category. Few studies comprehensively assessed the entire spectrum of the costs, and much of the literature is based on EDSS categories in coarse groupings. In spite of several variations between studies, one important conclusion that we can draw is that rise in cost is positively correlated to scores on the EDSS categories, and therefore agents with a capacity to prevent or arrest the rate of MS progression may affect the overall cost of MS.

Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol was inversely associated with 3-year all-cause mortality among Chinese oldest old: data from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey

OBJECTIVE

Low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) is a risk factor for survival in middle-aged individuals, but conflicting evidence exists on the relationship between LDL-C and all-cause mortality among the elderly. The goal of this study was to assess the relationship between LDL-C and all-cause mortality among Chinese oldest old (aged 80 and older) in a prospective cohort study.

METHODS

LDL-C concentration was measured at baseline and all-cause mortality was calculated over a 3-year period. Multiple statistical models were used to adjust for demographic and biological covariates.

RESULTS

During three years of follow-up, 447 of 935 participants died, and the overall all-cause mortality was 49.8%. Each 1 mmol/L increase of LDL-C concentration corresponded to a 19% decrease in 3-year all-cause mortality (hazard ratio [HR] 0.81, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.71-0.92). The crude HR for abnormally higher LDL-C concentration (≥3.37 mmol/L) was 0.65 (0.41-1.03); and the adjusted HR was statistically significant around 0.60 (0.37-0.95) when adjusted for different sets of confounding factors. Results of sensitivity analysis also showed a significant association between higher LDL-C and lower mortality risk.

CONCLUSIONS

Among the Chinese oldest old, higher LDL-C level was associated with lower risk of all-cause mortality. Our findings suggested the necessity of re-evaluating the optimal level of LDL-C among the oldest old.

Lifetime cost-effectiveness analysis of ticagrelor in patients with acute coronary syndromes based on the PLATO trial: a Singapore healthcare perspective

INTRODUCTION

Ticagrelor is a novel antiplatelet drug developed to reduce atherothrombosis. The PLATO trial compared ticagrelor and aspirin to clopidogrel and aspirin in patients with acute coronary syndromes (ACS). Ticagrelor was found to be superior in the primary composite endpoint of cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction or stroke, without increasing major bleeding events. The current study estimates the lifetime cost-effectiveness of ticagrelor relative to generic clopidogrel from a Singapore public healthcare perspective.

METHODS

This study used a two-part cost-effectiveness model. The first part was a 12-month decision tree (using PLATO trial data) to estimate the rates of major cardiovascular events, healthcare costs and health-related quality of life. The second part was a Markov model estimating lifetime quality-adjusted survival and costs conditional on events during the initial 12 months. Daily drug costs applied were SGD 1.05 (generic clopidogrel) and SGD 6.00 (ticagrelor). Cost per quality-adjusted life years (QALY) was estimated from a Singapore public healthcare perspective using life tables and short-term costs from Singapore, and long-term costs from South Korea. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed.

RESULTS

Ticagrelor was associated with a lifetime QALY gain of 0.13, primarily driven by lower mortality. The resulting incremental cost per QALY gained was SGD 10,136.00. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that ticagrelor had a > 99% probability of being cost-effective, given the lower recommended WHO willingness-to-pay threshold of one GDP/capita per QALY.

CONCLUSION

Based on PLATO trial data, one-year treatment with ticagrelor versus generic clopidogrel in patients with ACS, relative to WHO reference standards, is cost-effective from a Singapore public healthcare perspective.