Sustainable Dengue Prevention and Management: Integrating Dengue Vaccination Strategies with Population Perspectives

The GEMKAP study (2023) unveiled consistent knowledge, attitude, and practice (KAP) levels across Asia-Pacific (APAC) and Latin America (LATAM) countries regarding dengue, with variations in the willingness to vaccinate. Despite an overall KAP parity, the disparities within and between the countries indicated the need for both overarching and tailored strategies. Population-wide gaps in dengue awareness result in suboptimal vaccination priorities and preventive measures. This commentary delves into identifying the drivers and barriers for implementing a multi-pronged dengue prevention and management program, emphasizing the pivotal role of vaccination alongside education and vector control. Drawing on expert interviews in APAC and LATAM, informed by the Consolidated Framework for Implementation Research (CFIR), four key themes emerged: prioritizing and continuously advocating for dengue on national health agendas, fostering stakeholder collaboration, incorporating population perspectives for behavioral change, and designing sustainable dengue prevention and management programs. Successful implementation requires evidence-based decision making and a comprehensive understanding of population dynamics to design adaptive education tailored to diverse population views. This commentary provides actionable strategies for enhancing dengue prevention and management, with a pronounced emphasis on dengue vaccination, advocating for a holistic, population-centric approach for sustained effectiveness.

Preparedness of China's health care system to provide access to a disease-modifying Alzheimer's treatment

INTRODUCTION

Although the majority of patients with Alzheimer's disease (AD) reside in low-and middle-income countries, little is known of the infrastructure in these countries for delivering emerging disease-modifying treatments.

METHODS

We analyze the preparedness of China, the world's most populous middle-income country, using desk research, expert interviews and a simulation model.

RESULTS

Our findings suggest that China's health care system is ill-prepared to provide timely access to Alzheimer's treatment. The current pathway, in which patients seek evaluation in hospital-based memory clinics without a prior assessment in primary care, would overwhelm existing capacity. Even with triage using a brief cognitive assessment and a blood test for the AD pathology, predicted wait times would remain over 2 years for decades, largely due to limited capacity for confirmatory biomarker testing despite adequate specialist capacity.

DISCUSSION

Closing this gap will require the introduction of high-performing blood tests, greater reliance on cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) testing, and expansion of positron emission tomography (PET) capacity.

An Integrated Patient-Centred Medical Home (PCMH) Care Model Reduces Prospective Healthcare Utilisation for Community-Dwelling Older Adults with Complex Needs: A Matched Observational Study in Singapore

The global ageing population is associated with increased health service use. The PCMH care model integrates primary care and home-based care management to deliver comprehensive and personalised healthcare to community-dwelling older adults with bio-psycho-social needs. We examined if an integrated PCMH reduced healthcare utilisation burden of older persons in Singapore. We compared the healthcare utilisation between the intervention group and coarsened exact matched controls for a follow-up of 15 months. Baseline matching covariates included socio-demographics, health status, and past healthcare use. We accounted for COVID-19 social distancing effects on health-seeking behaviour. The intervention group consisted of 165 older adults with complex needs. We analysed national administrative healthcare utilisation data from 2017 to 2020. We applied multivariable zero-inflated regression modelling and presented findings stratified by high (CCI ≥ 5) and low disease burden (CCI < 5). Compared to controls, there were significant reductions in emergency department (β = -0.85; 95%CI = -1.55 to -0.14) and primary care visits (β = -1.70; 95%CI = -2.17 to -1.22) and a decrease in specialist outpatient visits (β = -0.29; 95%CI = -0.64 to 0.07) in the 3-month period immediately after one-year enrolment. The number of acute hospitalisations remained stable. Compared to controls, the intervention group with high and low comorbidity burden had significant decreases in primary care use, while only those with lower comorbidity burden had significant reductions in utilisation of other service types. An integrated PCMH appears beneficial in reducing healthcare utilisation for older persons with complex needs after 1 year in the programme. Future research can explore longer-term utilisation and scalability of the care model.

Economic Evaluation Associated With Clinical-Grade Mobile App-Based Digital Therapeutic Interventions: Systematic Review

BACKGROUND

Digital therapeutics (DTx), a class of software-based clinical interventions, are promising new technologies that can potentially prevent, manage, or treat a spectrum of medical disorders and diseases as well as deliver unprecedented portability for patients and scalability for health care providers. Their adoption and implementation were accelerated by the need for remote care during the COVID-19 pandemic, and awareness about their utility has rapidly grown among providers, payers, and regulators. Despite this, relatively little is known about the capacity of DTx to provide economic value in care.

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to systematically review and summarize the published evidence regarding the cost-effectiveness of clinical-grade mobile app-based DTx and explore the factors affecting such evaluations.

METHODS

A systematic review of economic evaluations of clinical-grade mobile app-based DTx was conducted following the PRISMA (Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses) 2020 guidelines. Major electronic databases, including PubMed, Cochrane Library, and Web of Science, were searched for eligible studies published from inception to October 28, 2022. Two independent reviewers evaluated the eligibility of all the retrieved articles for inclusion in the review. Methodological quality and risk of bias were assessed for each included study.

RESULTS

A total of 18 studies were included in this review. Of the 18 studies, 7 (39%) were nonrandomized study-based economic evaluations, 6 (33%) were model-based evaluations, and 5 (28%) were randomized clinical trial-based evaluations. The DTx intervention subject to assessment was found to be cost-effective in 12 (67%) studies, cost saving in 5 (28%) studies, and cost-effective in 1 (6%) study in only 1 of the 3 countries where it was being deployed in the final study. Qualitative deficiencies in methodology and substantial potential for bias, including risks of performance bias and selection bias in participant recruitment, were identified in several included studies.

CONCLUSIONS

This systematic review supports the thesis that DTx interventions offer potential economic benefits. However, DTx economic analyses conducted to date exhibit important methodological shortcomings that must be addressed in future evaluations to reduce the uncertainty surrounding the widespread adoption of DTx interventions.

TRIAL REGISTRATION

PROSPERO International Prospective Register of Systematic Reviews CRD42022358616; https://www.crd.york.ac.uk/prospero/display_record.php?ID=CRD42022358616.

Cost-minimization analysis of oral versus intravenous antibiotic treatment for Klebsiella pneumoniae liver abscess

A cost-minimization analysis was conducted for Klebsiella pneumoniae liver abscess (KLA) patients enrolled in a randomized controlled trial which found oral ciprofloxacin to be non-inferior to intravenous (IV) ceftriaxone in terms of clinical outcomes. Healthcare service utilization and cost data were obtained from medical records and estimated from self-reported patient surveys in a non-inferiority trial of oral ciprofloxacin versus IV ceftriaxone administered to 152 hospitalized adults with KLA in Singapore between November 2013 and October 2017. Total costs were evaluated by category and payer, and compared between oral and IV antibiotic groups over the trial period of 12 weeks. Among the subset of 139 patients for whom cost data were collected, average total cost over 12 weeks was $16,378 (95% CI, $14,620-$18,136) for the oral ciprofloxacin group and $20,569 (95% CI, $18,296-$22,842) for the IV ceftriaxone group, largely driven by lower average outpatient costs, as the average number of outpatient visits was halved for the oral ciprofloxacin group. There were no other statistically significant differences, either in inpatient costs or in other informal healthcare costs. Oral ciprofloxacin is less costly than IV ceftriaxone in the treatment of Klebsiella liver abscess, largely driven by reduced outpatient service costs.Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov Identifier NCT01723150 (7/11/2012).

Pragmatic multicentre stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial to investigate the effectiveness of community-based falls prevention programme for older adults with falls risk in Singapore: a protocol paper

INTRODUCTION

Falls are an important public health issue with consequences that include injuries, quality of life reduction and high healthcare costs. Studies show that falls prevention strategies are effective in reducing falls rate among community-dwelling older adults. However, the evaluation for effectiveness was usually done in a controlled setting with homogeneous population, and thus may not be generalisable to a wider population. This study aims to evaluate the impact of community falls prevention programmes with group-based strength and balance exercises, on falls risk and health outcomes for older adults with falls risk in Singapore.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This is a pragmatic closed cohort stepped-wedge cluster randomised trial design study, which involves sequential crossover of clusters from the waitlist control condition to the intervention condition, with the sequence of crossover randomly determined. The intervention will be sequentially rolled out to 12 clusters (a minimum of 5 participants/cluster), over 6 time periods with 8-week intervals in Central and North regions of Singapore. The primary analysis will be conducted under the intention-to-treat principle. A general linear mixed model or generalised estimating equation analysis appropriate for a multilevel longitudinal study incorporating an appropriate error distribution and link function will be used. Markov model will be developed to estimate the incremental cost per quality-adjusted life years and incremental cost per fall prevented from the implementation of falls prevention strategies from a societal perspective. Conditional on there being clinically relevant differences in short-term outcomes, we will implement simulation modelling to project the long-term divergence in trajectories for outcomes and costs using the Markov model.

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

Ethics approval has been obtained. Results will be disseminated in publications and other relevant platforms.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

NCT04788251.

Cost analysis of a Patient-Centred Medical Home for community-dwelling older adults with complex needs in Singapore

INTRODUCTION

The Patient-Centred Medical Home (PCMH) demonstration in Singapore, launched in November 2016, aimed to deliver integrated and patient-centred care for patients with biopsychosocial needs. Implementation was based on principles of comprehensiveness, coordinated care and shared decision-making.

METHOD

We conducted a prospective single-arm pre-post study design, which aimed to perform cost analysis of PCMH from the perspectives of patients, healthcare providers and society. We assessed short-to-intermediate-term health-related costs by analysing data on resource use and unit costs of resources.

RESULTS

We analysed 165 participants enrolled in PCMH from November 2017 to April 2020, with mean age of 77 years. Compared to the 3-month period before enrolment, mean total direct and indirect participant costs and total health system costs increased, but these were not statistically significant. There was a significant decrease in mean cost for primary care (government primary care and private general practice) in the first 3-month and second 3-month periods after enrolment, accompanied by a significant decrease in service utilisation and mean costs for PCMH services in the second 3-month period post-enrolment. This suggested a shift in resource costs from primary care to community-based care provided by PCMH, which had added benefits of both clinic-based primary care and home-based care management. Findings were consistent with a lower longer-term cost trajectory for PCMH after the initial onboarding period. Indirect caregiving costs remained stable.

CONCLUSION

The PCMH care model was associated with reduced costs to the health system and patients for usual primary care, and did not significantly change societal costs.

Estimating the economic cost of carbapenem resistant Enterobacterales healthcare associated infections in Singapore acute-care hospitals

Quantifying the costs of hospital associated infections (HAIs) caused by carbapenem-resistant Enterobacterales (CRE) can aid hospital decision makers in infection prevention and control decisions. We estimate the costs of a CRE HAI by infection type and the annual costs of CRE HAIs to acute-care hospitals in Singapore. We used tree diagrams to estimate the costs (in Singapore dollar) of different CRE HAI types from the health service perspective and compared them to the costs of carbapenem-susceptible HAIs. We used two approaches to estimate costs-direct costs of consumables for infection prevention and treatment; and costs associated with lost bed days. Cost of a HAI were extrapolated to annual CRE HAI incidence in Singapore acute-care hospitals to estimate the annual cost to the hospitals. We found that the cost of a CRE HAI based on direct cost and lost bed days are SGD$9,913 (95% CI, SGD$9,431-10,395) and SGD$10,044 (95% CI, SGD$9,789-10,300) respectively. CRE HAIs are markedly higher than the carbapenem-susceptible HAIs for all infection types. In both approaches, CRE pneumonia was the costliest infection. Based on a CRE HAI incidence of 233 per 100,000 inpatient admissions, CRE HAIs costed SGD$12.16M (95% CI, SGD$11.84-12.48M) annually based on direct costs, and SGD$12.33M (95% CI, SGD$12.01-12.64M) annually based on lost bed days. In conclusion, we described the cost of CRE HAIs in Singapore hospitals and identified infections with the highest costs. The findings may be useful in informing future economic evaluations of competing CRE HAI prevention and treatment programmes.

Responses to COVID‐19 in Southeast Asia: Diverse Paths and Ongoing Challenges

Due to geographical proximity and trade links with China, Southeast Asian countries were among the first to be exposed to and affected by COVID‐19. However, despite shared challenges including protecting population health and economic security, policy responses by national governments have been varied and remain so a year into the pandemic. This article critically reviews Southeast Asian countries' approaches to COVID‐19 with reference to individual country experiences and Association of Southeast Asian Nations. We discuss key policy responses: leadership, public risk communications, health system preparedness and resilience, economic support and social protection, aid and global health diplomacy, digital technologies, and the region's multilateral response.

Connecting the Dots: The State of Arts and Health in Singapore

Background: This article examines the state of the field of arts and health in Singapore and identifies the drivers that have shaped its development to date, adding new insights from Asia to the growing international literature in this area. Methods: Various methods, including an online survey and in-depth focus groups were used. Results: We find that the field in Singapore is rapidly growing, with a proliferation of activities across the arts and culture, healthcare, and social care sectors in recent decades fostered by various policy developments, increased funding and new peer-to-peer networking. Nevertheless, several issues persist, including inconsistent understanding and conceptualisation of the field as a whole across multiple stakeholders, limited research capacity and training platforms, and lack of professional recognition. Conclusions: We provide recommendations for further action, including developing arts and health literacy and research capacity, investing in efforts to bridge education and practice, and focusing on formalising and elevating professional standards.

Smoking, life expectancy, and chronic disease in South Korea, Singapore, and the United States: A microsimulation model

The substantial social and economic burden attributable to smoking is well-known, with heavy smokers at higher risk of chronic disease and premature mortality than light smokers and nonsmokers. In aging societies with high rates of male smoking such as in East Asia, smoking is a leading preventable risk factor for extending lives (including work-lives) and healthy aging. However, little is known about whether smoking interventions targeted at heavy smokers relative to light smokers lead to disproportionately larger improvements in life expectancy and prevalence of chronic diseases and how the effects vary across populations. Using a microsimulation model, we examined the health effects of smoking reduction by simulating an elimination of smoking among subgroups of smokers in South Korea, Singapore, and the United States. We found that life expectancy would increase by 0.2 to 1.5 years among light smokers and 2.5 to 3.7 years among heavy smokers. Whereas both interventions led to an increased life expectancy and decreased the prevalence of chronic diseases in all three countries, the life-extension benefits were greatest for those who would otherwise have been heavy smokers. Our findings illustrate how smoking interventions may have significant economic and social benefits, especially for life extension, that vary across countries.

Epidemiology and economic burden of bronchiectasis requiring hospitalisation in Singapore

Background and objective

Little is known about the epidemiology and cost of bronchiectasis in Asia. This study describes the disease burden of bronchiectasis in Singapore.

Methods

A nationwide administrative dataset was used to identify hospitalisations with bronchiectasis as a diagnosis. Population statistics and medical encounter data were used to estimate the incidence, mortality, prevalence and direct medical costs associated with bronchiectasis requiring hospitalisation.

Results

There were 420 incident hospitalised bronchiectasis patients in 2017, giving an incidence rate of 10.6 per 100 000. Age-standardised incidence declined on average by 2.7% per year between 2007 and 2017. Incidence rates increased strongly with age in both men and women. Tuberculosis was a secondary diagnosis in 37.5% of incident hospitalisations in 2007, but has declined sharply since then. Patient survival was considerably lower in both men (5-year relative survival ratios (RSR) 0.63, 95% CI 0.59–0.66) and women (5-year RSR 0.75, 95% CI 0.72–0.78). The point prevalence of bronchiectasis was 147.1 per 100 000 in 2017, and increased sharply with age, with >1% of people aged ≥75 years having bronchiectasis. Total first-year costs among incident bronchiectasis patients in 2016 varied widely, with a mean±sd USD 7331±8863. Approximately 10% of the patients admitted in 2016 had total first-year costs of more than USD 14 380.

Conclusion

Bronchiectasis is common and imposes a substantial burden on healthcare costs and survival rates of patients in Singapore.

Bronchiectasis is common, with a prevalence >1% in older persons, and imposes a substantial burden on healthcare costs and survival rates of patients living with bronchiectasis in Singaporehttps://bit.ly/3iErV79

Early Implementation of a Patient-Centered Medical Home in Singapore: A Qualitative Study Using Theory on Diffusion of Innovations

Patient-Centered Medical Home (PCMH) has been found to improve care for complex needs patients in some countries but has not yet been widely adopted in Singapore. This study explored the ground-up implementation of a PCMH in Singapore by describing change strategies and unpacking initial experience and perception. In-depth interviews were conducted for twenty-two key informants from three groups: the implementers, their implementation partners, and other providers. “Diffusion of innovations” emerged as an overarching theory to contextualize PCMH in its early implementation. Three core “innovations” differentiated the PCMH from usual primary care: (i) team-based and integrated care; (ii) empanelment; and (iii) shared care with other general practitioners. Change strategies employed to implement these innovations included repurposing pre-existing resources, building a partnership to create supporting infrastructure and pathways in the delivery system, and doing targeted outreach to introduce the PCMH. Initial experience and perception were characterized by processes to “adopt” and “assimilate” the innovations, which were identified as challenging due to less predictable, self-organizing behaviors by multiple players. To work with the inherent complexity and novelty of the innovations, time, leadership, standardized methods, direct communication, and awareness-building efforts are needed. This study was retrospectively registered (Protocol ID: NCT04594967).

Accuracy of a rapid multiplex PCR plus a chromogenic phenotypic test algorithm for detection of ESBL and carbapenemase-producing Gram-negative bacilli in positive blood culture bottles

We studied the performance of an algorithm combining multiplex-PCR with phenotypic detection of ESBLs and carbapenemases directly from positive blood culture bottles in patients with Gram-negative bacteremia and found good concordance with routine cultures. Such an algorithm may be a tool to improve time-to-optimal therapy in patients with Gram-negative bacteremia.

Factors Associated with Intended Postpartum OGTT Uptake and Willingness to Receive Preventive Behavior Support to Reduce Type 2 Diabetes Risk Among Women with Gestational Diabetes in Singapore: An Exploratory Study

Aim:

To assess and explore the factors affecting willingness to undergo an early postpartum oral glucose tolerance test (OGTT) and receive postpartum lifestyle modification assistance.

Methods:

An explanatory sequential mixed-method design was used. A prenatal cross-sectional survey questionnaire (n = 216) was given to women diagnosed with GDM in a tertiary health institution in Singapore and followed up with postpartum semi-structured interviews (n = 30). Multivariate logistic regression and thematic analysis were conducted before merging the findings.

Results:

Despite universal GDM education, fewer than 75% intended to take the OGTT postpartum, and only 63% felt it was very important. The plan to take the OGTT postpartum was positively associated with a prenatal care provider’s specific recommendation. In contrast, Malay women were less likely to take the test. Most women interpreted a care provider’s recommendation as implying standard practice, which encouraged intended and actual compliance with testing after giving birth. The perception of moderate to high T2DM risk in the following decade, and subsidized prenatal care, and plan to take the OGTT postpartum were positively associated with willingness to receive postpartum lifestyle behavior support. A mobile application was the preferred method to receive support.

Conclusions:

In the early postpartum period, women with a history of GDM were willing to receive measures to reduce T2DM risk, primarily if it was under the supervision and recommendation of a care provider. A carefully designed but simple postpartum lifestyle intervention incorporating these preferences that can be integrated into mainstream diabetes prevention programs is warranted.

Estimating direct and spill-over impacts of political elections on COVID-19 transmission using synthetic control methods

Mass gathering events have been identified as high-risk environments for community transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). Empirical estimates of their direct and spill-over effects however remain challenging to identify. In this study, we propose the use of a novel synthetic control framework to obtain causal estimates for direct and spill-over impacts of these events. The Sabah state elections in Malaysia were used as an example for our proposed methodology and we investigate the event's spatial and temporal impacts on COVID-19 transmission. Results indicate an estimated (i) 70.0% of COVID-19 case counts within Sabah post-state election were attributable to the election's direct effect; (ii) 64.4% of COVID-19 cases in the rest of Malaysia post-state election were attributable to the election's spill-over effects. Sensitivity analysis was further conducted by examining epidemiological pre-trends, surveillance efforts, varying synthetic control matching characteristics and spill-over specifications. We demonstrate that our estimates are not due to pre-existing epidemiological trends, surveillance efforts, and/or preventive policies. These estimates highlight the potential of mass gatherings in one region to spill-over into an outbreak of national scale. Relaxations of mass gathering restrictions must therefore be carefully considered, even in the context of low community transmission and enforcement of safe distancing guidelines.

Development and validation of a serum microRNA biomarker panel for detecting gastric cancer in a high-risk population

OBJECTIVE

An unmet need exists for a non-invasive biomarker assay to aid gastric cancer diagnosis. We aimed to develop a serum microRNA (miRNA) panel for identifying patients with all stages of gastric cancer from a high-risk population.

DESIGN

We conducted a three-phase, multicentre study comprising 5248 subjects from Singapore and Korea. Biomarker discovery and verification phases were done through comprehensive serum miRNA profiling and multivariant analysis of 578 miRNA candidates in retrospective cohorts of 682 subjects. A clinical assay was developed and validated in a prospective cohort of 4566 symptomatic subjects who underwent endoscopy. Assay performance was confirmed with histological diagnosis and compared with Helicobacter pylori (HP) serology, serum pepsinogens (PGs), 'ABC' method, carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and cancer antigen 19-9 (CA19-9). Cost-effectiveness was analysed using a Markov decision model.

RESULTS

We developed a clinical assay for detection of gastric cancer based on a 12-miRNA biomarker panel. The 12-miRNA panel had area under the curve (AUC)=0.93 (95% CI 0.90 to 0.95) and AUC=0.92 (95% CI 0.88 to 0.96) in the discovery and verification cohorts, respectively. In the prospective study, overall sensitivity was 87.0% (95% CI 79.4% to 92.5%) at specificity of 68.4% (95% CI 67.0% to 69.8%). AUC was 0.848 (95% CI 0.81 to 0.88), higher than HP serology (0.635), PG 1/2 ratio (0.641), PG index (0.576), ABC method (0.647), CEA (0.576) and CA19-9 (0.595). The number needed to screen is 489 annually. It is cost-effective for mass screening relative to current practice (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio=US$44 531/quality-of-life year).

CONCLUSION

We developed and validated a serum 12-miRNA biomarker assay, which may be a cost-effective risk assessment for gastric cancer.

TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER

This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov (Registration number: NCT04329299).

Oral vs Intravenous Antibiotics for Patients With Klebsiella pneumoniae Liver Abscess: A Randomized, Controlled Noninferiority Study

BACKGROUND

Klebsiella pneumoniae liver abscess (KLA) is emerging worldwide due to hypermucoviscous strains with a propensity for metastatic infection. Treatment includes drainage and prolonged intravenous antibiotics. We aimed to determine whether oral antibiotics were noninferior to continued intravenous antibiotics for KLA.

METHODS

This noninferiority, parallel group, randomized, clinical trial recruited hospitalized adults with liver abscess and K. pneumoniae isolated from blood or abscess fluid who had received ≤7 days of effective antibiotics at 3 sites in Singapore. Patients were randomized 1:1 to oral (ciprofloxacin) or intravenous (ceftriaxone) antibiotics for 28 days. If day 28 clinical response criteria were not met, further oral antibiotics were prescribed until clinical response was met. The primary endpoint was clinical cure assessed at week 12 and included a composite of absence of fever in the preceding week, C-reactive protein <20 mg/L, and reduction in abscess size. A noninferiority margin of 12% was used.

RESULTS

Between November 2013 and October 2017, 152 patients (mean age, 58.7 years; 25.7% women) were recruited, following a median 5 days of effective intravenous antibiotics. A total of 106 (69.7%) underwent abscess drainage; 71/74 (95.9%) randomized to oral antibiotics met the primary endpoint compared with 72/78 (92.3%) randomized to intravenous antibiotics (risk difference, 3.6%; 2-sided 95% confidence interval, -4.9% to 12.8%). Effects were consistent in the per-protocol population. Nonfatal serious adverse events occurred in 12/72 (16.7%) in the oral group and 13/77 (16.9%) in the intravenous group.

CONCLUSIONS

Oral antibiotics were noninferior to intravenous antibiotics for the early treatment of KLA.

CLINICAL TRIALS REGISTRATION

NCT01723150.

Role of caregiver factors in outpatient medical follow-up post-stroke: observational study in Singapore

Background

Outpatient medical follow-up post-stroke is not only crucial for secondary prevention but is also associated with a reduced risk of rehospitalization. However, being voluntary and non-urgent, it is potentially determined by both healthcare needs and the socio-demographic context of stroke survivor-caregiver dyads. Therefore, we aimed to examine the role of caregiver factors in outpatient medical follow-up (primary care (PC) and specialist outpatient care (SOC)) post-stroke.

Method

Stroke survivors and caregivers from the Singapore Stroke Study, a prospective, yearlong, observational study, contributed to the study sample. Participants were interviewed 3-monthly for data collection. Counts of PC and SOC visits were extracted from the National Claims Database. Poisson modelling was used to explore the association of caregiver (and patient) factors with PC/SOC visits over 0–3 months (early) and 4–12 months (late) post-stroke.

Results

For the current analysis, 256 stroke survivors and caregivers were included. While caregiver-reported memory problems of a stroke survivor (IRR: 0.954; 95% CI: 0.919, 0.990) and caregiver burden (IRR: 0.976; 95% CI: 0.959, 0.993) were significantly associated with lower early post-stroke PC visits, co-residing caregiver (IRR: 1.576; 95% CI: 1.040, 2.389) and negative care management strategies (IRR: 1.033; 95% CI: 1.005, 1.061) were significantly associated with higher late post-stroke SOC visits.

Conclusion

We demonstrated that the association of caregiver factors with outpatient medical follow-up varied by the type of service (i.e., PC versus SOC) and temporally. Our results support family-centred care provision by family physicians viewing caregivers not only as facilitators of care in the community but also as active members of the care team and as clients requiring care and regular assessments.

Supplementary Information

The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1186/s12875-021-01405-z.

Is Korea Prepared for an Alzheimer's Disease-Modifying Therapy? Assessing the Korean Healthcare System Infrastructure and the Effect of Blood-Based Biomarker Tests

Background

With the rapid demographic change in Korea, Alzheimer’s disease has become a primary concern. Recent developments in disease-modifying therapies provide hope that therapy may become available soon. The high disease prevalence and complex evaluation process will create challenges for the healthcare system already burdened by the current pandemic. This study examined the preparedness of the South Korean healthcare system to identify and treat patients when such a therapy becomes available.

Methods

We used a Markov model to simulate a stylized patient’s journey. Based on national data and expert input, we presented projections of the diagnosis and treatment wait times and respective queues of patients under treatment and no-treatment scenarios and further simulated the possible option of adopting a blood-based biomarker test.

Results

Under the current system, we estimated a peak waiting time of 14 months when a treatment became available, largely because of the limited number of dementia specialists. Adopting a blood-based biomarker test dramatically reduced the initial wait times by more than half. A disease-modifying therapy was estimated to avert 575,000 incident cases in the first 10 years after the treatment entered the market, and a blood-based test further avoided 86,000 additional cases.

Conclusion

South Korea’s healthcare infrastructure requires more preparation for the introduction of a disease-modifying therapy, with the primary capacity limitation being the low number of dementia specialists. The utilization of a blood-based test for Alzheimer’s disease biomarkers may be an effective solution.

Perceptions and Acceptability of Digital Interventions Among Tuberculosis Patients in Cambodia: Qualitative Study of Video-Based Directly Observed Therapy

Background

Despite the development of effective drugs for treatment, tuberculosis remains one of the leading causes of death from an infectious disease worldwide. One of the greatest challenges to tuberculosis control is patient adherence to treatment. Recent research has shown that video-based directly observed therapy is a feasible and effective approach to supporting treatment adherence in high-income settings. However, few studies have explored the potential for such a solution in a low- or middle-income country setting. Globally, these countries’ rapidly rising rate of mobile penetration suggests that the potential for translation of these results may be high.

Objective

We sought to examine patient perceptions related to the use of mobile health, and specifically video-based directly observed therapy, in a previously unstudied patient demographic: patients with tuberculosis in a low-income country setting (Cambodia).

Methods

We conducted a cross-sectional qualitative study in urban and periurban areas in Cambodia, consisting of 6 focus groups with tuberculosis patients who were receiving treatment (standard directly observed therapy) through a nongovernmental organization.

Results

Familiarity with mobile technology and apps was widespread in this population, and overall willingness to consider a mobile app for video-based directly observed therapy was high. However, we identified potential challenges. First, patients very much valued their frequent in-person interactions with their health care provider, which may be reduced with the video-based directly observed therapy intervention. Second, there may be technical issues to address, including how to make the app suitable for illiterate participants.

Conclusions

While video-based directly observed therapy is a promising technology, even in country settings where mobile penetration is reportedly almost universal, it should be introduced with caution. However, the results were generally promising and yielded important insights that not only will be translated into the further adaptation of key features of video-based directly observed therapy for tuberculosis patients in Cambodia, but also can inform the future design and successful implementation of video-based directly observed therapy interventions in low- and middle-income settings more generally.

Barriers to Gestational Diabetes Management and Preferred Interventions for Women With Gestational Diabetes in Singapore: Mixed Methods Study

Background

Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) is associated with risks for both the mother and child. The escalated prevalence of GDM because of obesity and changes in screening criteria demands for greater health care needs than before.

Objective

This study aimed to understand the perception of patients and health care providers of the barriers to GDM management and preferred interventions to manage GDM in an Asian setting.

Methods

This mixed methods study used a convergent parallel design. Survey data were collected from 216 women with GDM, and semistructured interviews were conducted with 15 women and with 8 health care providers treating patients with GDM. Participants were recruited from 2 specialized GDM clinics at the National University Hospital, Singapore.

Results

The patients were predominantly Chinese (102/214, 47.6%), employed (201/272, 73.9%), with higher education (150/216, 69.4%) and prenatal attendance at a private clinic (138/214, 64.2%), already on diet control (210/214, 98.1%), and receiving support and information from the GDM clinic (194/215, 90.2%) and web-based sources (131/215, 60.9%). In particular, working women reported barriers to GDM management, including the lack of reminders for blood glucose monitoring, diet control, and insufficient time for exercise. Most women preferred getting such support directly from health care providers, whether at the GDM clinic (174/215, 80.9%) or elsewhere (116/215, 53.9%). Smartphone apps were the preferred means of additional intervention. Desirable intervention features identified by patients included more information on GDM, diet and exercise options, reminders for blood glucose testing, a platform to record blood glucose readings and illustrate or understand trends, and a means to communicate with care providers.

Conclusions

A GDM-focused smartphone app that is able to integrate testing, education, and communication may be a feasible and acceptable intervention to provide support to women with GDM, particularly for working women.

Dyadic approach to supervised community rehabilitation participation in an Asian setting post-stroke: exploring the role of caregiver and patient characteristics in a prospective cohort study

OBJECTIVE

To study the association of caregiver factors and stroke survivor factors with supervised community rehabilitation (SCR) participation over the first 3 months and subsequent 3 to 12 months post-stroke in an Asian setting.

DESIGN

Prospective cohort study.

SETTING

Community setting.

PARTICIPANTS

We recruited stroke survivors and their caregivers into our yearlong cohort. Caregiver and stroke survivor variables were collected over 3-monthly intervals. We performed logistic regression with the outcome variable being SCR participation post-stroke.

OUTCOME MEASURES

SCR participation over the first 3 months and subsequent 3 to 12 months post-stroke RESULTS: 251 stroke survivor-caregiver dyads were available for the current analysis. The mean age of caregivers was 50.1 years, with the majority being female, married and co-residing with the stroke survivor. There were 61%, 28%, 4% and 7% of spousal, adult-child, sibling and other caregivers. The odds of SCR participation decreased by about 15% for every unit increase in caregiver-reported stroke survivor's disruptive behaviour score (OR: 0.845; 95% CI: 0.769 to 0.929). For every 1-unit increase in the caregiver's positive management strategy score, the odds of using SCR service increased by about 4% (OR: 1.039; 95% CI: 1.011 to 1.068).

CONCLUSION

We established that SCR participation is jointly determined by both caregiver and stroke survivor factors, with factors varying over the early and late post-stroke period. Our results support the adoption of a dyadic or more inclusive approach for studying the utilisation of community rehabilitation services, giving due consideration to both the stroke survivors and their caregivers. Adopting a stroke survivor-caregiver dyadic approach in practice settings should include promotion of positive care management strategies, comprehensive caregiving training including both physical and behavioural dimensions, active engagement of caregivers in rehabilitation journey and conducting regular caregiver needs assessments in the community.

Qualitative Study of Factors Affecting Patient, Caregiver and Physician Preferences for Treatment of Myeloma and Indolent Lymphoma

INTRODUCTION

The number of treatment options for myeloma and indolent lymphoma are expanding at an exponential rate, with few direct head-to-head comparisons on which to base efficacy measures. We sought to understand how patients, their caregivers and physicians weigh treatment characteristics in order to come to a decision on which treatment option to pursue.

METHODS

Patients, their caregivers and physicians were recruited and interviewed until data saturation was reached. A qualitative, thematic analysis was done to identify themes important to each stakeholder.

RESULTS

We found that, while all three groups valued efficacy the most, the consideration of other secondary characteristics of the treatment, such as cost, toxicity and logistical issues all differed subtly between the different groups. Patients valued minimising cost and toxicity, even at small trade-offs in efficacy. Caregivers and physicians valued efficacy foremost.

CONCLUSION

Acknowledging and managing these differences is paramount because they influence shared decision-making and may affect patient outcomes in the short term, as well as their more general well-being in the long term.

Systematic review of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of lifestyle interventions to improve clinical diabetes outcome measures in women with a history of GDM

OBJECTIVE

Lifestyle interventions have been shown to be both effective and cost-effective in reducing diabetes and metabolic risk in high-risk populations. We systematically reviewed the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of lifestyle interventions on anthropometric, glycemic and cardiovascular outcomes in women with previous gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM).

METHOD

Relevant randomized control trials (RCT) were identified by searching multiple electronic databases through 20th June 2018. Data were pooled using random-effects models. The review protocol was registered on the PROSPERO international prospective register of systematic reviews (PROSPERO 2016: CRD42018108870).

RESULTS

Twenty-one studies met the inclusion criteria and 16 studies with outcome data were analyzed in the meta-analysis. No RCT studies included cost-effectiveness data on lifestyle interventions. The pooled estimate for postpartum weight showed a significant mean reduction in the intervention arm (-1.8 kg [95% CI: -2.9, -0.6; p = 0.002; I² = 92.2%; p < 0.05]). Further, the effect of lifestyle intervention on weight change was significantly greater in studies of longer duration. Most of the other endpoints had modest improvements but only anthropometric endpoints were statistically significant. However, there was high heterogeneity between the studies.

CONCLUSIONS

Lifestyle interventions showed statistically and clinically significant improvements in anthropometric outcomes. However, more research is needed to explore lifestyle effects on glycemic and cardiovascular risk factors and to establish cost-effectiveness. Methodologically sound, large scale studies on diverse ethnicities and with longer follow-up would establish the real effect of lifestyle interventions to reduce diabetes risk in women with previous GDM.

Dyadic approach to post-stroke hospitalizations: role of caregiver and patient characteristics

Aim

To study the association of caregiver factors and stroke patient factors with rehospitalizations over the first 3 months and subsequent 3–12 months post-stroke in Singapore.

Methods

Patients with stroke and their caregivers were recruited in the Singapore Stroke Study, a prospective yearlong cohort. While caregiver and patient variables were taken from this study, hospitalization data were extracted from the national claims database. We used Poisson modelling to perform bivariate and multivariable analysis with counts of hospitalization as the outcome.

Results

Two hundred and fifty-six patient with stroke and caregiver dyads (N = 512) were analysed, with patients having spouse (60%), child (29%), sibling (4%) and other (7%) as their caregivers. Among all participants, 89% of index strokes were ischemic, 57% were mild in severity and more than half (59%) of the patients had moderate or severe disability post-stroke as measured on the Modified Rankin Scale. Having social support in the form of a foreign domestic worker for general help of caregiver reduced the hospitalization rate over 3 months post-stroke by 66% (IRR: 0.342; 95% CI: 0.180, 0.651). Compared to having a spousal caregiver, those with a child caregiver had an almost three times greater rate of hospitalizations over 3–12 months post-stroke (IRR: 2.896; 95% CI: 1.399, 5.992). Higher reported caregiving burden at the 3-month point was associated with the higher subsequent rate of hospitalization.

Conclusion

Recommendations include the adoption of a dyadic or holistic approach to post-stroke care provision by healthcare practitioners, giving due importance to both patients with stroke and their caregivers, integrating caregivers in the healthcare system to extend the care continuum to include informal care in the community and provision of timely support for caregivers.

Prospective validation of a serum miRNA panel for early detection of gastric cancer

4065

Background: High mortality from gastric cancer is related to the late manifestation of its symptoms. A blood-based non-invasive biomarker with the ability to detect all stages of gastric cancer could significantly improve patient outcomes. We aimed to develop a novel serum miRNA assay for diagnosis of gastric cancer. Methods: We conducted a multi-center study involving 892 gastric cancer and control subjects from Singapore and Korea to develop a multi-target miRNA assay. Using RT-qPCR, we quantified the expressions of 578 serum miRNAs and constructed a 12-miR biomarker panel through multi-variant data analysis. The results were generated with the use of a logistic-regression algorithm, with the value of 40 or more considered to be positive. We subsequently validated this multi-miR assay in a large prospective cohort involving 4566 subjects and compared its performance with traditional markers such as H.Pylori and Pepsinogen. All participants underwent gastroscopy independent of the assay results. Results: Of the 4566 subjects that underwent gastroscopy and histopathological examination in the prospective cohort, 125 were diagnosed with gastric cancer. The 12-miR assay achieved an Area-Under-Curve (AUC) of 0.84, significantly outperforming (p-value < 0.01) that of H.Pylori (AUC of 0.64) and Pepsinogen (AUC of 0.62). The sensitivity of the miRNA assay in detecting early (stage 0-2) and late (stage 3-4) stage gastric cancer was 82.6% (95% CI, 68.6% to 92.2%) and 88.4% (95% CI, 78.4% to 94.9%) respectively at a specificity of 70.0% (95% CI, 67.8% to 71.9%). In comparison, H.Pylori showed a sensitivity of 80.4% at a specificity of 44.3% whereas the Pepsinogen showed sensitivity of 9.52% at a specificity of 95.3%. Using the miRNA assay as a pre-screening tool could potentially reduce number of endoscopy needed by 62% in detecting one case of gastric cancer. Conclusions: Our serum miRNA panel is a useful, non-invasive screening test for gastric cancer. It is cost-effective as it can reduce unnecessary diagnostic endoscopy.

The Long-Term Impact of Functional Disability on Hospitalization Spending in Singapore

Singapore is one of the fastest-aging populations due to increased life expectancy and lowered fertility. Lifestyle changes increase the burden of chronic diseases and disability. These have important implications for social protection systems. The goal of this paper is to model future functional disability and healthcare expenditures based on current trends. To project the health, disability and hospitalization spending of future elders, we adapted the Future Elderly Model (FEM) to Singapore. The FEM is a dynamic Markov microsimulation model developed in the US. Our main source of population data was the Singapore Chinese Health Study (SCHS) consisting of 63,000 respondents followed up over three waves from 1993 to 2010. The FEM model enables us to investigate the effects of disability compounded over the lifecycle and hospitalization spending, while adjusting for competing risk of multi-comorbidities. Results indicate that by 2050, 1 in 6 elders in Singapore will have at least one ADL disability and 1 in 3 elders will have at least one IADL disability, an increase from 1 in 12 elders and 1 in 5 elders respectively in 2014. The highest prevalence of functional disability will be in those aged 85 years and above. Lifetime hospitalization spending of elders aged 55 and above is US$24,400 (30.2%) higher among people with functional disability compared to those without disability. Policies that successfully tackle diabetes and promote healthy living may reduce or delay the onset of disability, leading to potential saving. In addition, further technological improvements may reduce the financial burden of disability.

Effectiveness of a Technology-Based Supportive Educational Parenting Program on Parental Outcomes (Part 1): Randomized Controlled Trial

Background

Transitioning into parenthood can be stressful for new parents, especially with the lack of continuity of care from health care professionals during the postpartum period. Short hospital stays limit the availability of support and time parents need to be well equipped with parenting and infant care skills. Poor parental adjustment may, in turn, lead to negative parental outcomes and adversely affect the child’s development. For the family’s future well-being, and to facilitate a smoother transition into parenthood, there is a need for easily accessible, technology-based educational programs to support parents during the crucial perinatal period.

Objective

This study aimed to examine the effectiveness of a technology-based supportive educational parenting program (SEPP) on parenting outcomes during the perinatal period in couples.

Methods

A randomized, single-blinded, parallel-armed, controlled trial was conducted. The study recruited 236 parents (118 couples) from an antenatal clinic of a tertiary hospital in Singapore. Eligible parents were randomly assigned to the intervention group (n=118) or the control group (n=118). The SEPP is based on Bandura’s self-efficacy theory and Bowlby’s theory of attachment. Components of the intervention include 2 telephone-based educational sessions (1 antenatal and 1 immediately postnatal) and a mobile health app follow-up for 1 month. The control group only received routine perinatal care provided by the hospital. Outcome measures including parenting self-efficacy (PSE), parental bonding, perceived social support, parenting satisfaction, postnatal depression (PND), and anxiety were measured using reliable and valid instruments. Data were collected over 6 months at 4 time points: during pregnancy (third trimester), 2 days postpartum, 1 month postpartum, and 3 months postpartum. Outcomes were standardized using baseline means and SDs. Linear mixed models were used to compare the groups for postpartum changes in the outcome variables.

Results

The intervention group showed significantly better outcome scores than the control group from baseline to 3 months postpartum for PSE (mean difference, MD, 0.37; 95% CI 0.06 to 0.68; P=.02), parental bonding (MD −1.32; 95% CI −1.89 to −0.75; P<.001), self-perceived social support (MD 0.69; 95% CI 0.18 to 1.19; P=.01), parenting satisfaction (MD 1.40; 95% CI 0.86 to 1.93; P<.001), and PND (MD −0.91; 95% CI −1.34 to −0.49; P<.001). Postnatal anxiety (PNA) scores of the intervention group were only significantly better after adjusting for covariates (MD −0.82; 95% CI −1.15 to −0.49; P<.001).

Conclusions

The technology-based SEPP is effective in enhancing parental bonding, PSE, perceived social support and parental satisfaction, and in reducing PND and PNA. Health care professionals could incorporate it with existing hands-on infant care classes and routine care to better meet parents’ needs and create positive childbirth experiences, which may in turn encourage parents to have more children.

Trial Registration

ISRCTN Registry ISRCTN48536064; http://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN48536064 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6wMuEysiO).

Effect and cost-effectiveness of pneumococcal conjugate vaccination: a global modelling analysis

BACKGROUND

Introduction of pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCVs) has substantially reduced disease burden due to Streptococcus pneumoniae, a leading cause of childhood morbidity and mortality globally. However, PCVs are among the most expensive vaccines, hindering their introduction in some settings and threatening sustainability in others. We aimed to assess the effect and cost-effectiveness of introduction of 13-valent PCV (PCV13) vaccination globally.

METHODS

We assessed the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of PCV13 introduction by integrating two models: an ecological model (a parsimonious, mechanistic model validated with data from post-seven-valent PCV introduction in 13 high-income settings) to predict the effect of PCV on childhood invasive pneumococcal disease, and a decision-tree model to predict a range of clinical presentations and economic outcomes under vaccination and no-vaccination strategies. The models followed 30 birth cohorts up to age 5 years in 180 countries from 2015 to 2045. One-way scenario and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were done to explore model uncertainties.

FINDINGS

We estimate that global PCV13 use could prevent 0·399 million child deaths (95% credible interval 0·208 million to 0·711 million) and 54·6 million disease episodes (51·8 million to 58·1 million) annually. Global vaccine costs (in 2015 international dollars) of $15·5 billion could be partially offset by health-care savings of $3·19 billion (2·62 billion to 3·92 billion) and societal cost savings of $2·64 billion (2·13 billion to 3·28 billion). PCV13 use is probably cost-effective in all six UN regions. The 71 countries eligible for support from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance, account for 83% of PCV13-preventable deaths but only 18% of global vaccination costs. The expected cost of PCV vaccination globally is around $16 billion per year.

INTERPRETATION

Our findings highlight the value of Gavi's support for PCV introduction in low-income countries and of efforts to improve the affordability of PCVs in countries not eligible for, or transitioning from, Gavi support.

FUNDING

World Health Organization; Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance; and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

2289. Accuracy of a Rapid Multiplex PCR Plus a Chromogenic Phenotypic Test Algorithm for the Detection of ESBL and Carbapenemase-Producing Gram Negatives Directly From Blood Cultures

Background

We studied the multiplex PCR panel (BioFire Blood Culture ID panel, “BCID”) with phenotypic testing using the Rosco Diagnostica Rapid ESBL Screen kit 98022 (RE) and the Neo-Rapid CARB kit 98024 (RC) for extended-spectrum β-lactamase (ESBL)/carbapenemase producing Gram negative bacilli (CPGNB) detection directly from blood culture bottles, in patients with Gram negative bacteremia.

Methods

The RE and RC kits were evaluated in a verification phase with 98 blood cultures, comprising 43 spiked with GNB: 23 Escherichia coli, 9 Klebsiella pneumoniae, 7 Enterobacter cloacae, 2 Serratia marcescens, one Pseudomonas aeruginosa, one Acinetobacter baumanii complex with varying resistance genotypes (11 CTX-M-15, 5 CTX-M9, one SHV-18, one SHV-3, one TEM-10, 3 IMI, 4 IMP, 4 KPC, 2 NDM, one OXA-23+OXA-51-like, 3 OXA-232, one OXA-48, one SME-1, 2 VIM-1, 2 AmpC from reference and clinical isolate banks, and ATCC 25922), and 54 clinical blood cultures with GNB (5 phenotypic ESBL-positive, one KPC, 48 no known β-lactamase). In a prospective phase, a further 123 clinical blood cultures positive for GNB were tested simultaneously with the BCID, RE and RC kits.

Results

In the verification phase, the RE kit detected 24/25 of ESBL-positive samples (sensitivity 96%, specificity 99%). The RE kit did not detect the 2 AmpC-producers, and was positive for a K. oxytoca isolate, which are known to produce chromosomally encoded β-lactamases. The RC kit detected 11/22 of CPGNB (sensitivity 50%, specificity 100%). It missed IMI, OXA-23+OXA-51-like, OXA-232, OXA-48, SME-1 and VIM CPGNB (weak carbapenemases), but detected NDM, KPC, IMP. In the prospective phase, the RE kit detected 20/20 ESBL-positive blood culture samples (sensitivity 100%). The single OXA-48 positive sample was detected by both the RE and RC kits. The 123 blood cultures had a total of 125 panel-represented targets detectable by BCID. The BCID detected 124 /125 (missed one K. pneumoniae in a polymicrobial bacteremia), and there were 2 Proteus false-positives (sensitivity 99%, specificity 98%). No KPC-positive samples were detected by BCID.

Conclusion

An algorithm comprising the BCID and the RE/RC kits applied to positive blood cultures allows both rapid and accurate pathogen identification and detection of ESBLs and some carbapenemases (e.g., KPC, NDM, IMP). This may allow the institution of timelier, directed therapy.

Disclosures

S. Vasoo, bioMerieux: Grant Investigator, Research support. Rosco Diagnostica: In-kind support, Research support. R. Banerjee, Accelerate Diagnostics, Biomerieux, BioFire: Grant Investigator, Research grant and Research support. R. Patel, CD Diagnostics, BioFire, Curetis, Merck, Hutchison Biofilm Medical Solutions, Accelerate Diagnostics, Allergan, and The Medicines Company: Grant Investigator, Research grant - monies paid to Mayo Clinic. Curetis, Specific Technologies, Selux Dx, GenMark Diagnostics, PathoQuest and Genentech: Consultant and Scientific Advisor, Consulting fee - monies paid to Mayo Clinic. ASM and IDSA: Travel reimbursement and editor’s stipends, Travel reimbursement and editor’s stipends. NBME, Up-to-Date and the Infectious Diseases Board Review Course: Varies, Honoraria. Mayo Clinic: Employee, Salary.

Healthcare utilization and cost trajectories post-stroke: role of caregiver and stroke factors

BACKGROUND

It is essential to study post-stroke healthcare utilization trajectories from a stroke patient caregiver dyadic perspective to improve healthcare delivery, practices and eventually improve long-term outcomes for stroke patients. However, literature addressing this area is currently limited. Addressing this gap, our study described the trajectory of healthcare service utilization by stroke patients and associated costs over 1-year post-stroke and examined the association with caregiver identity and clinical stroke factors.

METHODS

Patient and caregiver variables were obtained from a prospective cohort, while healthcare data was obtained from the national claims database. Generalized estimating equation approach was used to get the population average estimates of healthcare utilization and cost trend across 4 quarters post-stroke.

RESULTS

Five hundred ninety-two stroke patient and caregiver dyads were available for current analysis. The highest utilization occurred in the first quarter post-stroke across all service types and decreased with time. The incidence rate ratio (IRR) of hospitalization decreased by 51, 40, 11 and 1% for patients having spouse, sibling, child and others as caregivers respectively when compared with not having a caregiver (p = 0.017). Disability level modified the specialist outpatient clinic usage trajectory with increasing difference between mildly and severely disabled sub-groups across quarters. Stroke type and severity modified the primary care cost trajectory with expected cost estimates differing across second to fourth quarters for moderately-severe ischemic (IRR: 1.67, 1.74, 1.64; p = 0.003), moderately-severe non-ischemic (IRR: 1.61, 3.15, 2.44; p = 0.001) and severe non-ischemic (IRR: 2.18, 4.92, 4.77; p = 0.032) subgroups respectively, compared to first quarter.

CONCLUSION

Highlighting the quarterly variations, we reported distinct utilization trajectories across subgroups based on clinical characteristics. Caregiver availability reducing hospitalization supports revisiting caregiver's role as potential hidden workforce, incentivizing their efforts by designing socially inclusive bundled payment models for post-acute stroke care and adopting family-centered clinical care practices.

Can caregivers report their care recipients' post-stroke hospitalizations and outpatient visits accurately? Findings of an Asian prospective stroke cohort

Background

Health services research aimed at understanding service use and improving resource allocation often relies on collecting subjectively reported or proxy-reported healthcare service utilization (HSU) data. It is important to know the discrepancies in such self or proxy reports, as they have significant financial and policy implications. In high-dependency populations, such as stroke survivors, with varying levels of cognitive impairment and dysphasia, caregivers are often potential sources of stroke survivors’ HSU information. Most of the work conducted on agreement analysis to date has focused on validating different sources of self-reported data, with few studies exploring the validity of caregiver-reported data. Addressing this gap, our study aimed to quantify the agreement across the caregiver-reported and national claims-based HSU of stroke patients.

Methods

A prospective study comprising multi-ethnic stroke patient and caregiver dyads (N = 485) in Singapore was the basis of the current analysis, which used linked national claims records. Caregiver-reported health services data were collected via face-to-face and telephone interviews, and similar health services data were extracted from the national claims records. The main outcome variable was the modified intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), which provided the level of agreement across both data sources. We further identified the amount of over- or under-reporting by caregivers across different service types.

Results

We observed variations in agreement for different health services, with agreement across caregiver reports and national claims records being the highest for outpatient visits (specialist and primary care), followed by hospitalizations and emergency department visits. Interestingly, caregivers over-reported hospitalizations by approximately 49% and under-reported specialist and primary care visits by approximately 20 to 30%.

Conclusions

The accuracy of the caregiver-reported HSU of stroke patients varies across different service types. Relatively more objective data sources, such as national claims records, should be considered as a first choice for quantifying health care usage before considering caregiver-reported usage. Caregiver-reported outpatient service use was relatively more accurate than inpatient service use over shorter recall periods. Therefore, in situations where objective data sources are limited, caregiver-reported outpatient information can be considered for low volumes of healthcare consumption, using an appropriate correction to account for potential under-reporting.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-018-3634-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Risk factors and direct medical cost of early versus late unplanned readmissions among diabetes patients at a tertiary hospital in Singapore

OBJECTIVE

To examine the risk factors and direct medical costs associated with early (≤30 days) versus late (31-180 days) unplanned readmissions among patients with type 2 diabetes in Singapore.

METHODS

Risk factors and associated costs among diabetes patients were investigated using electronic medical records from a local tertiary care hospital from 2010 to 2012. Multivariable logistic regression was used to identify risk factors associated with early and late unplanned readmissions while a generalized linear model was used to estimate the direct medical cost. Sensitivity analysis was also performed.

RESULTS

A total of 1729 diabetes patients had unplanned readmissions within 180 days of an index discharge. Length of index stay (a marker of acute illness burden) was one of the risk factors associated with early unplanned readmission while patient behavior-related factors, like diabetes-related medication adherence, were associated with late unplanned readmission. Adjusted mean cost of index admission was higher among patients with unplanned readmission. Sensitivity analysis yielded similar results.

CONCLUSIONS

Existing routinely captured data can be used to develop prediction models that flag high risk patients during their index admission, potentially helping to support clinical decisions and prevent such readmissions.

Large funding inflows, limited local capacity and emerging disease control priorities: a situational assessment of tuberculosis control in Myanmar

There are numerous challenges in planning and implementing effective disease control programmes in Myanmar, which is undergoing internal political and economic transformations whilst experiencing massive inflows of external funding. The objective of our study-involving key informant discussions, participant observations and linked literature reviews-was to analyse how tuberculosis (TB) control strategies in Myanmar are influenced by the broader political, economic, epidemiological and health systems context using the Systemic Rapid Assessment conceptual and analytical framework. Our findings indicate that the substantial influx of donor funding, in the order of one billion dollars over a 5-year period, may be too rapid for the country's infrastructure to effectively utilize. TB control strategies thus far have tended to favour medical or technological approaches rather than infrastructure development, and appear to be driven more by perceived urgency to 'do something' rather informed by evidence of cost-effectiveness and sustainable long-term impact. Progress has been made towards ambitious targets for scaling up treatment of drug-resistant TB, although there are concerns about ensuring quality of care. We also find substantial disparities in health and funding allocation between regions and ethnic groups, which are related to the political context and health system infrastructure. Our situational assessment of emerging TB control strategies in this transitioning health system indicates that large investments by international donors may be pushing Myanmar to scale up TB and drug-resistant TB services too quickly, without due consideration given to the health system (service delivery infrastructure, human resource capacity, quality of care, equity) and epidemiological (evidence of effectiveness of interventions, prevention of new cases) context.

A strong TB programme embedded in a developing primary healthcare system is a lose-lose situation: insights from patient and community perspectives in Cambodia

As exemplified by the situation in Cambodia, disease specific (vertical) health programmes are often favoured when the health system is fragile. The potential of such an approach to impede strengthening of primary healthcare services has been studied from a health systems perspective in terms of access and quality of care. In this bottom-up, qualitative study we investigate patient and community member experiences of health services when a strong tuberculosis (TB) programme is embedded into a relatively underutilized primary healthcare system. We conducted six gender-stratified community focus group discussions (n = 49) and seven mixed-gender focus group discussions with TB patients (n = 45) in three provinces located in urban, peri-urban and rural areas of Cambodia. Our analysis of health-seeking behaviour and experiences for TB and TB-like illness indicates that building a strong vertical TB control programme has had numerous benefits, including awareness of typical symptoms and need to seek care early; confidence in free TB services at public facilities; and willingness to complete treatment. However, there was a clear dichotomy in experiences and behaviour with respect to care-seeking for less severe illness at primary health services, which were generally avoided owing to access barriers and perceived poor quality. The tendency to delay seeking health care until the development of severe symptoms clearly indicative of TB is a major barrier to early diagnosis and treatment of TB. Our study indicates that an imbalance in the strength of vertical and primary health services could be a lose-lose situation as this impedes improvements in health system functioning and constrains progress of vertical disease control programmes.

Preventing emergence of drug resistant tuberculosis in Myanmar's transitioning health system

Multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB) is a particular threat to the populations of resource-limited countries. Although inadequate treatment of TB has been identified as a major underlying cause of drug resistance, essential information to inform changes in health service delivery and policy is missing. We investigate factors that may be driving the emergence of MDR-TB in Myanmar, a country where investment and health system reforms are ongoing to address the unexplained, high occurrence of MDR-TB. We conducted a multi-centre, retrospective case-control study in 10 townships across Yangon. Cases were 202 GeneXpert-confirmed MDR-TB patients with a history of prior first-line treatment for TB. Controls were 404 previously untreated smear-microscopy confirmed TB patients who had no evidence of resistance to anti-TB drugs. Information on patient and health service factors was collected through face-to-face patient interviews and hospital record reviews. Multivariable logistic regression analysis indicated that the following TB patient groups are at higher risk of developing MDR-TB after initial TB treatment: those who have diabetes (aOR 2.10; 95% CI 1.17-3.76), those who missed taking drugs during the initial treatment more than once weekly (aOR 2.35; 95% CI 1.18-4.65) and those with a higher socioeconomic (aOR 1.99; 95% CI 1.09-3.63) or educational status (aOR 1.78; 95% CI1.01-3.13). Coinciding with a surge in funding to improve health in Myanmar, this study identifies practices of patients and healthcare organizations that can be addressed, and high-risk TB patient groups that can be prioritized for treatment support. Specifically, the study shows that TB patients who experience frequent, short interruptions in treatment and those with diabetes may require enhanced treatment support and monitoring by health services in order to prevent further generation of drug resistance.

Are global tuberculosis control targets overlooking an essential indicator? Prolonged delays to diagnosis despite high case detection rates in Yunnan, China

Delay in treating active tuberculosis (TB) impedes disease control by allowing ongoing transmission, and may explain the unexpectedly modest declines in global TB incidence. Even though China has achieved TB control targets under the global Directly Observed Treatment, Short course (DOTS) strategy, TB prevalence in western provinces, including Yunnan, is not decreasing. This cross-sectional study investigates whether prolonged delay in identifying and correctly treating TB patients, which is not routinely monitored, persists even when there is a well-functioning TB control programme and global targets are being met. Records of adult smear-positive pulmonary TB patients diagnosed with between 2006 and 2013 were extracted from the Yunnan Centre for Disease Control electronic database, which contains information on the entire population of TB patients managed across 129 diagnostic centres. Delay was investigated at three stages: delay to DOTS facility (period between symptom onset and first visit to at a CDC unit providing standardized treatment); delay to TB confirmation (period between reaching a CDC unit and confirmation of smear-positive TB) and delay to treatment (period between confirmation of TB and initiation of treatment). Data from 76 486 patients was analysed. Delay to reaching a DOTS facility was by far the largest contributor to total delay to treatment initiation. The median delay to reaching a DOTS facility, to TB confirmation and to treatment was 57 days (IQR 25-112), 2 days (IQR 1-6) and 1 day (IQR 0-1) respectively. Prolonged delays to reaching a facility providing standardized TB care occurred in a substantial subset of the population despite all TB control targets being met; overall, 32% (24 676) of patients experienced a delay of more than 90 days to reaching a DOTS facility. Policies that focus on reducing delays in accessing appropriate health services, rather than only on increasing overall case-detection rates, may result in greater progress towards reducing TB incidence.

Cost-benefit analysis of introducing next-generation sequencing (metagenomic) pathogen testing in the setting of pyrexia of unknown origin

Pyrexia of unknown origin (PUO) is defined as a temperature of >38.3°C that lasts for >3 weeks, where no cause can be found despite appropriate investigation. Existing protocols for the work-up of PUO can be extensive and costly, motivating the application of recent advances in molecular diagnostics to pathogen testing. There have been many reports describing various analytical methods and performance of metagenomic pathogen testing in clinical samples but the economics of it has been less well studied. This study pragmatically evaluates the feasibility of introducing metagenomic testing in this setting by assessing the relative cost of clinically-relevant strategies employing this investigative tool under various cost and performance scenarios using Singapore as a demonstration case, and assessing the price and performance benchmarks, which would need to be achieved for metagenomic testing to be potentially considered financially viable relative to the current diagnostic standard. This study has some important limitations: we examined only impact of introducing the metagenomic test to the overall diagnostic cost and excluded costs associated with hospitalization and makes assumptions about the performance of the routine diagnostic tests, limiting the cost of metagenomic test, and the lack of further work-up after positive pathogen detection by the metagenomic test. However, these assumptions were necessary to keep the model within reasonable limits. In spite of these, the simplified presentation lends itself to the illustration of the key insights of our paper. In general, we find the use of metagenomic testing as second-line investigation is effectively dominated, and that use of metagenomic testing at first-line would typically require higher rates of detection or lower cost than currently available in order to be justifiable purely as a cost-saving measure. We conclude that current conditions do not warrant a widespread rush to deploy metagenomic testing to resolve any and all uncertainty, but rather as a front-line technology that should be used in specific contexts, as a supplement to rather than a replacement for careful clinical judgement.

Health Care Providers' Perceptions of Responsibilities and Resources to Reduce Type 2 Diabetes Risk After Gestational Diabetes Mellitus

IN BRIEF Gestational diabetes mellitus (GDM) increases the risk for type 2 diabetes. This qualitative study aimed to evaluate health care providers' perceptions of care responsibilities and resources related to reducing type 2 diabetes risk among women with previous GDM in Singapore. Health care providers acknowledged a shared responsibility. They felt that they had less understanding of compliance with long-term maintenance of lifestyle change, exacerbated further by fragmentation of follow-up care. The application of more integrated patient-centered care models, combined with greater health literacy, is urgently required in this area.

Realist evaluation of a complex integrated care programme: protocol for a mixed methods study

INTRODUCTION

The lack of understanding of how complex integrated care programmes achieve their outcomes due to the lack of acceptable methods leads to difficulties in the development, implementation, adaptation and scaling up of similar interventions. In this study, we evaluate an integrated care network, the National University Health System (NUHS) Regional Health System (RHS), consisting of acute hospitals, step down care, primary care providers, social services and community partners using a theory-driven realist evaluation approach. This study aims to examine how and for whom the NUHS-RHS works to improve healthcare utilisations, outcomes, care experiences and reduce healthcare costs. By using a realist approach that balances the needs of context-specific evaluation with international comparability, this study carries the potential to address current research gaps.

METHODS AND ANALYSIS

This evaluation will be conducted in three research phases: (1) development of initial programme theory (IPT) underlying the NUHS-RHS; (2) testing of programme theory using empirical data; and (3) refinement of IPT. IPT was elicited and developed through reviews of programme documents, informal discussions and in-depth interviews with relevant stakeholders. Then, a convergent parallel mixed method study will be conducted to assess context (C), mechanisms (M) and outcomes (O) to test the IPT. Findings will then be analysed according to the realist evaluation formula of CMO in which findings on the context, mechanisms will be used to explain the outcomes. Finally, based on findings gathered, IPT will be refined to highlight how to improve the NUHS-RHS by detailing what works (outcome), as well as how (mechanisms) and under what conditions (context).

ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION

The National Healthcare Group, Singapore, Domain Specific Review Board reviewed and approved this study protocol. Study results will be published in international peer-reviewed journals and presented at conferences and internally to NUHS-RHS and Ministry of Health, Singapore.

Effectiveness of a Technology-Based Supportive Educational Parenting Program on Parental Outcomes in Singapore: Protocol for a Randomized Controlled Trial

Background

Supportive educational programs during the perinatal period are scarce in Singapore. There is no continuity of care available in terms of support from community care nurses in Singapore. Parents are left on their own most of the time, which results in a stressful transition to parenthood. There is a need for easily accessible technology-based educational programs that can support parents during this crucial perinatal period.

Objective

The aim of this study was to describe the study protocol of a randomized controlled trial on a technology-based supportive educational parenting program.

Methods

A randomized controlled two-group pretest and repeated posttest experimental design will be used. The study will recruit 118 parents (59 couples) from the antenatal clinics of a tertiary public hospital in Singapore. Eligible parents will be randomly allocated to receive either the supportive educational parenting program or routine perinatal care from the hospital. Outcome measures include parenting self-efficacy, parental bonding, postnatal depression, social support, parenting satisfaction, and cost evaluation. Data will be collected at the antenatal period, immediate postnatal period, and at 1 month and 3 months post childbirth.

Results

Recruitment of the study participants commenced in December 2016 and is still ongoing. Data collection is projected to finish within 12 months, by December 2017.

Conclusions

This study will identify a potentially clinically useful, effective, and cost-effective supportive educational parenting program to improve parental self-efficacy and bonding in newborn care, which will then improve parents’ social support–seeking behaviors, emotional well-being, and satisfaction with parenting. It is hoped that better supported and satisfied parents will consider having more children, which may in turn influence Singapore’s ailing birth rate.

Trial Registration

International Standard Randomized Controlled Trial Number (ISRCTN): 48536064; https://www.isrctn.com/ISRCTN48536064 (Archived by WebCite at http://www.webcitation.org/6wMuEysiO)

Capturing Budget Impact Considerations Within Economic Evaluations: A Systematic Review of Economic Evaluations of Rotavirus Vaccine in Low- and Middle-Income Countries and a Proposed Assessment Framework

BACKGROUND

In low- and middle-income countries, budget impact is an important criterion for funding new interventions, particularly for large public health investments such as new vaccines. However, budget impact analyses remain less frequently conducted and less well researched than cost-effectiveness analyses.

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to fill the gap in research on budget impact analyses by assessing (1) the quality of stand-alone budget impact analyses, and (2) the feasibility of extending cost-effectiveness analyses to capture budget impact.

METHODS

We developed a budget impact analysis checklist and scoring system for budget impact analyses, which we then adapted for cost-effectiveness analyses, based on current International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research Task Force recommendations. We applied both budget impact analysis and cost-effectiveness analysis checklists and scoring systems to examine the extent to which existing economic evaluations provide sufficient evidence about budget impact to enable decision making. We used rotavirus vaccination as an illustrative case in which low- and middle-income countries uptake has been limited despite demonstrated cost effectiveness. A systematic literature review was conducted to identify economic evaluations of rotavirus vaccine in low- and middle-income countries published between January 2000 and February 2017. We critically appraised the quality of budget impact analyses, and assessed the extension of cost-effectiveness analyses to provide useful budget impact information.

RESULTS

Six budget impact analyses and 60 cost-effectiveness analyses were identified. Budget impact analyses adhered to most International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research recommendations, with key exceptions being provision of undiscounted financial streams for each budget period and model validation. Most cost-effectiveness analyses could not be extended to provide useful budget impact information; cost-effectiveness analyses also rarely presented undiscounted annual costs, or estimated financial streams during the first years of programme scale-up.

CONCLUSIONS

Cost-effectiveness analyses vastly outnumber budget impact analyses of rotavirus vaccination, despite both being critical for policy decision making. Straightforward changes to the presentation of cost-effectiveness analyses results could facilitate their adaptation into budget impact analyses.

Tuberculosis active case finding in Cambodia: a pragmatic, cost-effectiveness comparison of three implementation models

BACKGROUND

Globally, almost 40% of tuberculosis (TB) patients remain undiagnosed, and those that are diagnosed often experience prolonged delays before initiating correct treatment, leading to ongoing transmission. While there is a push for active case finding (ACF) to improve early detection and treatment of TB, there is extremely limited evidence about the relative cost-effectiveness of different ACF implementation models. Cambodia presents a unique opportunity for addressing this gap in evidence as ACF has been implemented using different models, but no comparisons have been conducted. The objective of our study is to contribute to knowledge and methodology on comparing cost-effectiveness of alternative ACF implementation models from the health service perspective, using programmatic data, in order to inform national policy and practice.

METHODS

We retrospectively compared three distinct ACF implementation models - door to door symptom screening in urban slums, checking contacts of TB patients, and door to door symptom screening focusing on rural populations aged above 55 - in terms of the number of new bacteriologically-positive pulmonary TB cases diagnosed and the cost of implementation assuming activities are conducted by the national TB program of Cambodia. We calculated the cost per additional case detected using the alternative ACF models.

RESULTS

Our analysis, which is the first of its kind for TB, revealed that the ACF model based on door to door screening in poor urban areas of Phnom Penh was the most cost-effective (249 USD per case detected, 737 cases diagnosed), followed by the model based on testing contacts of TB patients (308 USD per case detected, 807 cases diagnosed), and symptomatic screening of older rural populations (316 USD per case detected, 397 cases diagnosed).

CONCLUSIONS

Our study provides new evidence on the relative effectiveness and economics of three implementation models for enhanced TB case finding, in line with calls for data from 'routine conditions' to be included in disease control program strategic planning. Such cost-effectiveness comparisons are essential to inform resource allocation decisions of national policy makers in resource constraint settings. We applied a novel, pragmatic methodological approach, which was designed to provide results that are directly relevant to policy makers, costing the interventions from Cambodia's national TB program's perspective and using case finding data from implementation activities, rather than experimental settings.