Modelling the impact of the long-term use of insecticide-treated bed nets on Anopheles mosquito biting time

Rapid and non-destructive identification of Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles arabiensis mosquito species using Raman spectroscopy via machine learning classification models

BACKGROUND

Identification of malaria vectors is an important exercise that can result in the deployment of targeted control measures and monitoring the susceptibility of the vectors to control strategies. Although known to possess distinct biting behaviours and habitats, the African malaria vectors Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles arabiensis are morphologically indistinguishable and are known to be discriminated by molecular techniques. In this paper, Raman spectroscopy is proposed to complement the tedious and time-consuming Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) method for the rapid screening of mosquito identity.

METHODS

A dispersive Raman microscope was used to record spectra from the legs (femurs and tibiae) of fresh anaesthetized laboratory-bred mosquitoes. The scattered Raman intensity signal peaks observed were predominantly centered at approximately 1400 cm-1, 1590 cm-1, and 2067 cm-1. These peaks, which are characteristic signatures of melanin pigment found in the insect cuticle, were important in the discrimination of the two mosquito species. Principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used for dimension reduction. Four classification models were built using the following techniques: Linear Discriminant Analysis (LDA), Logistic Regression (LR), Quadratic Discriminant Analysis (QDA), and Quadratic Support Vector Machine (QSVM).

RESULTS

PCA extracted twenty-one features accounting for 95% of the variation in the data. Using the twenty-one principal components, LDA, LR, QDA, and QSVM discriminated and classified the two cryptic species with 86%, 85%, 89%, and 93% accuracy, respectively on cross-validation and 79%, 82%, 81% and 93% respectively on the test data set.

CONCLUSION

Raman spectroscopy in combination with machine learning tools is an effective, rapid and non-destructive method for discriminating and classifying two cryptic mosquito species, Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles arabiensis belonging to the Anopheles gambiae complex.

Topical repellents for malaria prevention

BACKGROUND

Insecticide-based interventions, such as long-lasting insecticide-treated nets (LLINs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), remain the backbone of malaria vector control. These interventions target mosquitoes that prefer to feed and rest indoors, but have limited capacity to prevent transmission that occurs outdoors or outside regular sleeping hours. In low-endemicity areas, malaria elimination will require that these control gaps are addressed, and complementary tools are found. The use of topical repellents may be particularly useful for populations who may not benefit from programmatic malaria control measures, such as refugees, the military, or forest goers. This Cochrane Review aims to measure the effectiveness of topical repellents to prevent malaria infection among high- and non-high-risk populations living in malaria-endemic regions.

OBJECTIVES

To assess the effect of topical repellents alone or in combination with other background interventions (long-lasting insecticide-treated nets, or indoor residual spraying, or both) for reducing the incidence of malaria in high- and non-high-risk populations living in endemic areas.

SEARCH METHODS

We searched the following databases up to 11 January 2023: the Cochrane Infectious Diseases Group Specialised Register; CENTRAL (in the Cochrane Library); MEDLINE; Embase; CAB Abstracts; and LILACS. We also searched trial registration platforms and conference proceedings; and contacted organizations and companies for ongoing and unpublished trials.

SELECTION CRITERIA

We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs) and cluster-randomized controlled trials (cRCTs) of topical repellents proven to repel mosquitoes. We also included non-randomized studies that complied with pre-specified inclusion criteria: controlled before-after studies (CBA), controlled interrupted time series (ITS), and controlled cross-over trials.

DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS

Four review authors independently assessed trials for inclusion, and extracted the data. Two authors independently assessed the risk of bias (RoB) using the Cochrane RoB 2 tool. A fifth review author resolved any disagreements. We analysed data by conducting a meta-analysis, stratified by whether studies included populations considered to be at high-risk of developing malaria infection (for example, refugees, forest goers, or deployed military troops). We combined results from cRCTs with RCTs by adjusting for clustering and presented results using forest plots. We used the GRADE framework to assess the certainty of the evidence. We only included data on Plasmodium falciparum infections in the meta-analysis.

MAIN RESULTS

Thirteen articles relating to eight trials met the inclusion criteria and were qualitatively described. We included six trials in the meta-analysis (five cRCTs and one RCT). Effect on malaria incidence Topical repellents may slightly reduce P falciparum infection and clinical incidence when both outcomes are considered together (incidence rate ratio (IRR) 0.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56 to 0.98; 3 cRCTs and 1 RCT, 61,651 participants; low-certainty evidence); but not when these two outcomes were considered independently. Two cRCTs and one RCT (12,813 participants) evaluated the effect of topical repellents on infection incidence (IRR 0.76, 95% CI 0.56 to 1.02; low-certainty evidence). One cRCT (48,838 participants) evaluated their effect on clinical case incidence (IRR 0.66, 95% CI 0.32 to 1.36; low-certainty evidence). Three studies (2 cRCTs and 1 RCT) included participants belonging to groups considered at high-risk of being infected, while only one cRCT did not include participants at high risk. Adverse events Topical repellents are considered safe. The prevalence of adverse events among participants who used topical repellents was very low (0.6%, 283/47,515) and limited to mild skin reactions. Effect on malaria prevalence Topical repellents may slightly reduce P falciparum prevalence (odds ratio (OR) 0.81, 95% CI 0.67 to 0.97; 3 cRCTs and 1 RCT; 55,366 participants; low-certainty evidence). Two of these studies (1 cRCT and 1 RCT) were carried out in refugee camps, and included exclusively high-risk populations that were not receiving any other background vector control intervention.

AUTHORS' CONCLUSIONS

There is insufficient evidence to conclude that topical repellents can prevent malaria in settings where other vector control interventions are in place. We found the certainty of evidence for all outcomes to be low, primarily due to the risk of bias. A protective effect was suggested among high-risk populations, specially refugees, who might not have access to other standard vector control measures. More adequately powered clinical trials carried out in refugee camps could provide further information on the potential benefit of topical repellents in this setting. Individually randomized studies are also likely necessary to understand whether topical repellents have an effect on personal protection, and the degree to which diversion to non-protected participants affects overall transmission dynamics. Despite this, the potential additional benefits of topical repellents are most likely limited in contexts where other interventions are available.

Diurnal biting of malaria mosquitoes in the Central African Republic indicates residual transmission may be "out of control"

Transmission of malarial parasites occurs via the bites of Anopheles mosquitoes, whose blood-feeding behavior modulates the risk of infection. In many malaria endemic regions, eradication strategies rely on reducing transmission by targeting nocturnal blood-feeding Anopheles with insecticidal nets. However, a proportion of mosquitoes may naturally feed when humans are not protected by nets, setting a ceiling to the efficacy of massive net-based interventions. In Bangui, Central African Republic, 20 to 30% of daily exposure to indoor bites occurs during daytime, and this fraction may correspond to mosquitoes escaping exposure to current vector control measures. Knowledge about the daily rhythmicity of mosquito biting is therefore crucial to adjust vector control tactics to protect people at places where they spend daytime.

Malaria control interventions target nocturnal feeding of the Anopheles vectors indoors to reduce parasite transmission. Mass deployment of insecticidal bed nets and indoor residual spraying with insecticides, however, may induce mosquitoes to blood-feed at places and at times when humans are not protected. These changes can set a ceiling to the efficacy of these control interventions, resulting in residual malaria transmission. Despite its relevance for disease transmission, the daily rhythmicity of Anopheles biting behavior is poorly documented, most investigations focusing on crepuscular hours and nighttime. By performing mosquito collections 48-h around the clock, both indoors and outdoors, and by modeling biting events using circular statistics, we evaluated the full daily rhythmicity of biting in urban Bangui, Central African Republic. While the bulk of biting by Anopheles gambiae, Anopheles coluzzii, Anopheles funestus, and Anopheles pharoensis occurred from sunset to sunrise outdoors, unexpectedly ∼20 to 30% of indoor biting occurred during daytime. As biting events did not fully conform to any family of circular distributions, we fitted mixtures of von Mises distributions and found that observations were consistent with three compartments, corresponding indoors to populations of early-night, late-night, and daytime-biting events. It is not known whether these populations of biting events correspond to spatiotemporal heterogeneities or also to distinct mosquito genotypes/phenotypes belonging consistently to each compartment. Prevalence of Plasmodium falciparum in nighttime- and daytime-biting mosquitoes was the same. As >50% of biting occurs in Bangui when people are unprotected, malaria control interventions outside the domiciliary environment should be envisaged.

Causal effects on low Apgar at 5-min and stillbirth in a malaria maternal-fetal health outcome investigation: a large perinatal surveillance study in the Brazilian Amazon

BACKGROUND

Malaria elimination in Brazil poses several challenges, including the control of Plasmodium falciparum foci and the hidden burden of Plasmodium vivax in pregnancy. Maternal malaria and fetal health outcomes were investigated with a perinatal surveillance study in the municipality of Cruzeiro do Sul, Acre state, Brazilian Amazon. The research questions are: what are the causal effects of low birth weight on low Apgar at 5-min and of perinatal anaemia on stillbirth?

METHODS

From November 2018 to October 2019, pregnant women of ≥ 22 weeks or puerperal mothers, who delivered at the referral maternity hospital (Juruá Women and Children's Hospital), were recruited to participate in a malaria surveillance study. Clinical information was obtained from a questionnaire and abstracted from medical reports. Haemoglobin level and presence of malarial parasites were tested by haematology counter and light microscopy, respectively. Low Apgar at 5-min and stillbirth were the outcomes analysed in function of clinical data and epidemiologic risk factors for maternal malaria infection using both a model of additive and independent effects and a causal model with control of confounders and use of mediation.

RESULTS

In total, 202 (7.2%; N = 2807) women had malaria during pregnancy. Nearly half of malaria infections during pregnancy (n = 94) were P. falciparum. A total of 27 women (1.03%; N = 2632) had perinatal malaria (19 P. vivax and 8 P. falciparum). Perinatal anaemia was demonstrated in 1144 women (41.2%; N = 2779) and low birth weight occurred in 212 newborns (3.1%; N = 2807). A total of 75 newborns (2.7%; N = 2807) had low (< 7) Apgar scores at 5-min., and stillbirth occurred in 23 instances (30.7%; n = 75). Low birth weight resulted in 7.1 higher odds of low Apgar at 5-min (OR = 7.05, 95% CI 3.86-12.88, p < 0.001) modulated by living in rural conditions, malaria during pregnancy, perinatal malaria, and perinatal anaemia. Stillbirth was associated with perinatal anaemia (OR = 2.56, 95% CI 1.02-6.42, p = 0.0444) modulated by living in rural conditions, falciparum malaria during pregnancy, perinatal malaria, and perinatal fever.

CONCLUSIONS

While Brazil continues its path towards malaria elimination, the population still faces major structural problems, including substandard living conditions. Here malaria infections on pregnant women were observed having indirect effects on fetal outcomes, contributing to low Apgar at 5-min and stillbirth. Finally, the utility of employing multiple statistical analysis methods to validate consistent trends is vital to ensure optimal public health intervention designs.

How will mosquitoes adapt to climate warming?

The potential for adaptive evolution to enable species persistence under a changing climate is one of the most important questions for understanding impacts of future climate change. Climate adaptation may be particularly likely for short-lived ectotherms, including many pest, pathogen, and vector species. For these taxa, estimating climate adaptive potential is critical for accurate predictive modeling and public health preparedness. Here, we demonstrate how a simple theoretical framework used in conservation biology-evolutionary rescue models-can be used to investigate the potential for climate adaptation in these taxa, using mosquito thermal adaptation as a focal case. Synthesizing current evidence, we find that short mosquito generation times, high population growth rates, and strong temperature-imposed selection favor thermal adaptation. However, knowledge gaps about the extent of phenotypic and genotypic variation in thermal tolerance within mosquito populations, the environmental sensitivity of selection, and the role of phenotypic plasticity constrain our ability to make more precise estimates. We describe how common garden and selection experiments can be used to fill these data gaps. Lastly, we investigate the consequences of mosquito climate adaptation on disease transmission using Aedes aegypti-transmitted dengue virus in Northern Brazil as a case study. The approach outlined here can be applied to any disease vector or pest species and type of environmental change.

Widespread zoophagy and detection of Plasmodium spp. in Anopheles mosquitoes in southeastern Madagascar

BACKGROUND

Malaria is a top cause of mortality on the island nation of Madagascar, where many rural communities rely on subsistence agriculture and livestock production. Understanding feeding behaviours of Anopheles in this landscape is crucial for optimizing malaria control and prevention strategies. Previous studies in southeastern Madagascar have shown that Anopheles mosquitoes are more frequently captured within 50 m of livestock. However, it remains unknown whether these mosquitoes preferentially feed on livestock. Here, mosquito blood meal sources and Plasmodium sporozoite rates were determined to evaluate patterns of feeding behaviour in Anopheles spp. and malaria transmission in southeastern Madagascar.

METHODS

Across a habitat gradient in southeastern Madagascar 7762 female Anopheles spp. mosquitoes were collected. Of the captured mosquitoes, 492 were visibly blood fed and morphologically identifiable, and a direct enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) was used to test for swine, cattle, chicken, human, and dog blood among these specimens. Host species identification was confirmed for multiple blood meals using PCR along with Sanger sequencing. Additionally, 1,607 Anopheles spp. were screened for the presence of Plasmodium falciparum, P. vivax-210, and P. vivax 247 circumsporozoites (cs) by ELISA.

RESULTS

Cattle and swine accounted, respectively, for 51% and 41% of all blood meals, with the remaining 8% split between domesticated animals and humans. Of the 1,607 Anopheles spp. screened for Plasmodium falciparum, Plasmodium vivax 210, and Plasmodium vivax 247 cs-protein, 45 tested positive, the most prevalent being P. vivax 247, followed by P. vivax 210 and P. falciparum. Both variants of P. vivax were observed in secondary vectors, including Anopheles squamosus/cydippis, Anopheles coustani, and unknown Anopheles spp. Furthermore, evidence of coinfection of P. falciparum and P. vivax 210 in Anopheles gambiae sensu lato (s.l.) was found.

CONCLUSIONS

Here, feeding behaviour of Anopheles spp. mosquitoes in southeastern Madagascar was evaluated, in a livestock rich landscape. These findings suggest largely zoophagic feeding behaviors of Anopheles spp., including An. gambiae s.l. and presence of both P. vivax and P. falciparum sporozoites in Anopheles spp. A discordance between P. vivax reports in mosquitoes and humans exists, suggesting high prevalence of P. vivax circulating in vectors in the ecosystem despite low reports of clinical vivax malaria in humans in Madagascar. Vector surveillance of P. vivax may be relevant to malaria control and elimination efforts in Madagascar. At present, the high proportion of livestock blood meals in Madagascar may play a role in buffering (zooprophylaxis) or amplifying (zoopotentiation) the impacts of malaria. With malaria vector control efforts focused on indoor feeding behaviours, complementary approaches, such as endectocide-aided vector control in livestock may be an effective strategy for malaria reduction in Madagascar.

Evaluation of the malaria elimination policy in Brazil: a systematic review and epidemiological analysis study

After a centenary fight against malaria, Brazil has seen an opportunity for change with the proposal of the malaria elimination policy set by the Brazilian government, in line with malaria elimination policies in other Latin American countries. Brazilian malaria experts regard eliminating malaria by 2030 to be within reach. Herein we evaluated the likelihood that malaria elimination can be accomplished in Brazil through systematic review of the literature on malaria elimination in Brazil and epidemiological analysis. Fifty-two articles referring to malaria eradication/elimination in Brazil were analyzed to identify challenges and technological breakthroughs for controlling malaria. Monthly deaths (1979-2016) and monthly severe malaria cases (1998-2018) were analyzed according to age groups, geographic region and parasite species. As a result, we observed that the declining malaria burden was mostly attributable to a decline in Plasmodium falciparum-malaria. At the same time, the proportional increase of Plasmodium vivax-malaria in comparison with P. falciparum-malaria was notable. This niche replacement mechanism was discussed in the reviewed literature. In addition, the challenges to P. vivax-malaria elimination outnumbered the available technological breakthroughs. Although accumulated and basic information exists on mosquito vector biology, the lack of specific knowledge about mosquito vector taxonomy and ecology may hamper current attempts at stopping malaria in the country. An impressive reduction in malaria hospitalizations and mortality was seen in Brazil in the past 3 decades. Eliminating malaria deaths in children less than 5 years and P. falciparum severe cases may be achievable goals under the current malaria policy until 2030. However, eliminating P. vivax malaria transmission and morbidity seems unattainable with the available tools. Therefore, complete malaria elimination in Brazil in the near future is unlikely.

Behavioural plasticity of Anopheles coluzzii and Anopheles arabiensis undermines LLIN community protective effect in a Sudanese-savannah village in Burkina Faso

BACKGROUND

Despite the overall major impact of long-lasting insecticide treated nets (LLINs) in eliciting individual and collective protection to malaria infections, some sub-Saharan countries, including Burkina Faso, still carry a disproportionately high share of the global malaria burden. This study aims to analyse the possible entomological bases of LLIN limited impact, focusing on a LLIN-protected village in the Plateau Central region of Burkina Faso.

METHODS

Human landing catches (HLCs) were carried out in 2015 for 12 nights both indoors and outdoors at different time windows during the highest biting activity phase for Anopheles gambiae (s.l.). Collected specimens were morphologically and molecularly identified and processed for Plasmodium detection and L1014F insecticide-resistance allele genotyping.

RESULTS

Almost 2000 unfed An. gambiae (s.l.) (54% Anopheles coluzzii and 44% Anopheles arabiensis) females landing on human volunteers were collected, corresponding to a median number of 23.5 females/person/hour. No significant differences were observed in median numbers of mosquitoes collected indoors and outdoors, nor between sporozoite rates in An. coluzzii (6.1%) and An. arabiensis (5.5%). The estimated median hourly entomological inoculation rate (EIR) on volunteers was 1.4 infective bites/person/hour. Results do not show evidence of the biting peak during night hours typical for An. gambiae (s.l.) in the absence of bednet protection. The frequency of the L1014F resistant allele (n = 285) was 66% in An. coluzzii and 38% in An. arabiensis.

CONCLUSIONS

The observed biting rate and sporozoite rates are in line with the literature data available for An. gambiae (s.l.) in the same geographical area before LLIN implementation and highlight high levels of malaria transmission in the study village. Homogeneous biting rate throughout the night and lack of preference for indoor-biting activity, suggest the capacity of both An. coluzzii and An. arabiensis to adjust their host-seeking behaviour to bite humans despite bednet protection, accounting for the maintenance of high rates of mosquito infectivity and malaria transmission. These results, despite being limited to a local situation in Burkina Faso, represent a paradigmatic example of how high densities and behavioural plasticity in the vector populations may contribute to explaining the limited impact of LLINs on malaria transmission in holo-endemic Sudanese savannah areas in West Africa.

Behavioural adaptations of mosquito vectors to insecticide control

Behavioural resistance to insecticides may be an important factor restraining the efficacy of vector control against mosquito-transmitted diseases. However, our understanding of the mechanisms underlying such behavioural resistance remains sparse. In this review, we focus on the behavioural adaptations of mosquito vectors in response to the use of insecticides and provide a general framework for guiding future investigations. We present our review of vector behaviour in the field and a conceptual classification of behavioural adaptations to insecticides. We emphasise that behavioural adaptations can result from constitutive or induced (i.e. phenotypically plastic) traits. Lastly, we identify gaps in knowledge limiting a better understanding of how mosquito behavioural adaptations may affect the fight against vector-borne diseases.

Agent-based models of malaria transmission: a systematic review

BACKGROUND

Much of the extensive research regarding transmission of malaria is underpinned by mathematical modelling. Compartmental models, which focus on interactions and transitions between population strata, have been a mainstay of such modelling for more than a century. However, modellers are increasingly adopting agent-based approaches, which model hosts, vectors and/or their interactions on an individual level. One reason for the increasing popularity of such models is their potential to provide enhanced realism by allowing system-level behaviours to emerge as a consequence of accumulated individual-level interactions, as occurs in real populations.

METHODS

A systematic review of 90 articles published between 1998 and May 2018 was performed, characterizing agent-based models (ABMs) relevant to malaria transmission. The review provides an overview of approaches used to date, determines the advantages of these approaches, and proposes ideas for progressing the field.

RESULTS

The rationale for ABM use over other modelling approaches centres around three points: the need to accurately represent increased stochasticity in low-transmission settings; the benefits of high-resolution spatial simulations; and heterogeneities in drug and vaccine efficacies due to individual patient characteristics. The success of these approaches provides avenues for further exploration of agent-based techniques for modelling malaria transmission. Potential extensions include varying elimination strategies across spatial landscapes, extending the size of spatial models, incorporating human movement dynamics, and developing increasingly comprehensive parameter estimation and optimization techniques.

CONCLUSION

Collectively, the literature covers an extensive array of topics, including the full spectrum of transmission and intervention regimes. Bringing these elements together under a common framework may enhance knowledge of, and guide policies towards, malaria elimination. However, because of the diversity of available models, endorsing a standardized approach to ABM implementation may not be possible. Instead it is recommended that model frameworks be contextually appropriate and sufficiently described. One key recommendation is to develop enhanced parameter estimation and optimization techniques. Extensions of current techniques will provide the robust results required to enhance current elimination efforts.