Global health worker salary estimates: an econometric analysis of global earnings data

Comparing scale up of status quo hypertension care against dual combination therapy as separate pills or single pill combinations: an economic evaluation in 24 low- and middle-income countries

Background

International hypertension treatment guidelines recommend initiating pharmacological treatment with combination therapy and using fixed dose single pill combinations (SPCs) to improve adherence. However, few countries have adopted combination therapy as a form of first-line treatment and SPC uptake in low- and middle-income countries is low due in part to cost and availability. Evidence on costs and cost-effectiveness is needed as health authorities consider incorporating new recommendations into national clinical practice guidelines.

Methods

Over a 30-year time horizon, we used an Excel-based Markov cohort state-transition model to assess the financial costs (screening, treatment, program, and supply chain costs) and socio-economic outcomes (health outcomes, value of lives saved, productivity losses averted) of three antihypertensive treatment scenarios. A baseline scenario scaled treatment among adults age 30 plus while assuming continuation of the widespread practice of initiating treatment with monotherapy. Scenarios one and two scaled treatment while initiating patients on two antihypertensive medications, either as separate pills or as a SPC. Analysis inputs are informed by country-specific data, meta-analyses of the blood-pressure lowering of antihypertensive medications, and own-studies of medication costs. We compared costs, cost-effectiveness, and net-benefits across scenarios, and assessed uncertainty in a one-way sensitivity analysis.

Findings

Using dual combination therapy (with or without SPCs) as first-line treatment would increase costs relative to current practices that largely use monotherapy. Required additional annual resources averaged as much as 3.6, 0.9, and 0.2 percent of government health expenditures in the analysis' low-, lower-middle, and upper-middle income countries. However, across 24 countries, over the next 30 years, combination therapy with separate pills could save 430,000 more lives and combination therapy with SPCs could save 564,000 more lives compared to baseline treatment practices. Administration of two or more medications using SPCs generated higher net benefits in most countries (16/24) compared to the baseline scenario.

Interpretation

First line treatment employing SPCs is likely to generate higher net benefits compared to status quo treatment practices in countries with relatively higher incomes. To improve population health, national health systems would benefit from reducing structural and other barriers to the use of combination therapy and SPCs.

Funding

This journal article was supported by TEPHINET cooperative agreement number 1NU2HGH000044-01-0 funded by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Estimated global and regional economic burden of genital herpes simplex virus infection among 15-49 year-olds in 2016

BACKGROUND

Globally, herpes simplex virus (HSV)-2 and -1 infections contribute to a large disease burden, but their full economic consequences remain unclear. This study aims to estimate the global economic impact of genital HSV-2 and HSV-1 infection and its consequences for people with genital ulcer disease, neonatal herpes, and human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection attributable to HSV-2.

METHODS

Using a societal perspective, the economic burden was calculated at the country level and presented by World Health Organization (WHO) regions and World-Bank income levels. The disease burden was obtained from previously published global disease burden studies in 2016 and disaggregated for 194 countries. Estimates of healthcare resource utilisation were sourced from a literature review, and online interviews were conducted with 20 experts from all 6 WHO regions. Relevant costs were obtained from the literature and estimated in 2016 international dollars (I$).

RESULTS

Both genital HSV-2 (I$31·2 billion) and HSV-1 (I$4·0 billion) infections and their consequences were estimated to cost I$35·3 billion globally in 2016. The major economic burden was from the Americas and Western Pacific regions combined, accounting for almost two-thirds of the global burden (I$20·8 billion). High- and upper-middle-income countries bore a large proportion of the economic burden (76·6% or I$27·0 billion). Costs were driven by the large number of HSV-2 recurrences; however, even assuming conservatively that people with symptomatic herpes have on average only one episode a year, global costs were estimated at I$16·5 billion.

CONCLUSIONS

The global costs of genital HSV infection and its consequences are substantial. HSV prevention interventions have the potential to avert a large economic burden in addition to disease burden; thus, efforts to accelerate HSV vaccine development are crucial.

Cost-effectiveness of COVID rapid diagnostic tests for patients with severe/critical illness in low- and middle-income countries: A modeling study

BACKGROUND

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for coronavirus disease (COVID) are used in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) to inform treatment decisions. However, to date, it is unclear when this use is cost-effective. Existing analyses are limited to a narrow set of countries and uses. The aim of this study is to assess the cost-effectiveness of COVID RDTs to inform the treatment of patients with severe illness in LMICs, considering real world practice.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We assessed the cost-effectiveness of COVID testing across LMICs using a decision tree model, differentiating results by country income level, Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) prevalence, and testing scenario (none, RDTs, polymerase chain reaction tests-PCRs and combinations). LMIC experts defined realistic care pathways and treatment options. Using a healthcare provider perspective and net monetary benefit approach, we assessed both intended (COVID symptom alleviation) and unintended (treatment side effects) health and economic impacts for each testing scenario. We included the side effects of corticosteroids, which are often the only available treatment for COVID. Because side effects depend both on the treatment and the patient's underlying illness (COVID or COVID-like illnesses, such as influenza), we considered the prevalence of COVID-like illnesses in our analyses. We found that SARS-CoV-2 testing of patients with severe COVID-like illness can be cost-effective in all LMICs, though only in some circumstances. High influenza prevalence among suspected COVID cases improves cost-effectiveness, since incorrectly provided corticosteroids may worsen influenza outcomes. In low- and some lower-middle-income countries, only patients with a high index of suspicion for COVID should be tested with RDTs, while other patients should be presumed to not have COVID. In some lower-middle-income and upper-middle-income countries, suspected severe COVID cases should almost always be tested. Further, in these settings, negative test results in patients with a high initial index of suspicion should be confirmed through PCR and, during influenza outbreaks, positive results in patients with a low initial index of suspicion should also be confirmed with a PCR. The use of interleukin-6 receptor blockers, when supported by testing, may also be cost-effective in higher-income LMICs. The cost at which they would be cost-effective in low-income countries ($162 to $406 per treatment course) is below current prices. The primary limitation of our analysis is substantial uncertainty around some of the parameters in our model due to limited data, most notably on current COVID mortality with standard of care, and insufficient evidence on the impact of corticosteroids on patients with severe influenza.

CONCLUSIONS

COVID testing can be cost-effective to inform treatment of LMIC patients with severe COVID-like disease. The optimal algorithm is driven by country income level and health budgets, the level of suspicion that the patient may have COVID, and influenza prevalence. Further research to better characterize the unintended effects of corticosteroids, particularly on influenza cases, could improve decision making around the treatment of those with COVID-like symptoms in LMICs.

Scaling Up TB Screening and TB Preventive Treatment Globally: Key Actions and Healthcare Service Costs

The 2018 United Nations High-Level Meeting on Tuberculosis (UNHLM) set targets for case detection and TB preventive treatment (TPT) by 2022. However, by the start of 2022, about 13.7 million TB patients still needed to be detected and treated, and 21.8 million household contacts needed to be given TPT globally. To inform future target setting, we examined how the 2018 UNHLM targets could have been achieved using WHO-recommended interventions for TB detection and TPT in 33 high-TB burden countries in the final year of the period covered by the UNHLM targets. We used OneHealth-TIME model outputs combined with the unit cost of interventions to derive the total costs of health services. Our model estimated that, in order to achieve UNHLM targets, >45 million people attending health facilities with symptoms would have needed to be evaluated for TB. An additional 23.1 million people with HIV, 19.4 million household TB contacts, and 303 million individuals from high-risk groups would have required systematic screening for TB. The estimated total costs amounted to ~USD 6.7 billion, of which ~15% was required for passive case finding, ~10% for screening people with HIV, ~4% for screening household contacts, ~65% for screening other risk groups, and ~6% for providing TPT to household contacts. Significant mobilization of additional domestic and international investments in TB healthcare services will be needed to reach such targets in the future.

Assessing the impacts of COVID-19 vaccination programme's timing and speed on health benefits, cost-effectiveness, and relative affordability in 27 African countries

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 vaccine supply shortage in 2021 constrained roll-out efforts in Africa while populations experienced waves of epidemics. As supply improves, a key question is whether vaccination remains an impactful and cost-effective strategy given changes in the timing of implementation.

METHODS

We assessed the impact of vaccination programme timing using an epidemiological and economic model. We fitted an age-specific dynamic transmission model to reported COVID-19 deaths in 27 African countries to approximate existing immunity resulting from infection before substantial vaccine roll-out. We then projected health outcomes (from symptomatic cases to overall disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted) for different programme start dates (01 January to 01 December 2021, n = 12) and roll-out rates (slow, medium, fast; 275, 826, and 2066 doses/million population-day, respectively) for viral vector and mRNA vaccines by the end of 2022. Roll-out rates used were derived from observed uptake trajectories in this region. Vaccination programmes were assumed to prioritise those above 60 years before other adults. We collected data on vaccine delivery costs, calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) compared to no vaccine use, and compared these ICERs to GDP per capita. We additionally calculated a relative affordability measure of vaccination programmes to assess potential nonmarginal budget impacts.

RESULTS

Vaccination programmes with early start dates yielded the most health benefits and lowest ICERs compared to those with late starts. While producing the most health benefits, fast vaccine roll-out did not always result in the lowest ICERs. The highest marginal effectiveness within vaccination programmes was found among older adults. High country income groups, high proportions of populations over 60 years or non-susceptible at the start of vaccination programmes are associated with low ICERs relative to GDP per capita. Most vaccination programmes with small ICERs relative to GDP per capita were also relatively affordable.

CONCLUSION

Although ICERs increased significantly as vaccination programmes were delayed, programmes starting late in 2021 may still generate low ICERs and manageable affordability measures. Looking forward, lower vaccine purchasing costs and vaccines with improved efficacies can help increase the economic value of COVID-19 vaccination programmes.

Determinants of Public Health Personnel Spending in Spain

Public health is funded with government funds gathered from tax revenues, whether national, provincial or municipal. The health system therefore suffers during economic crisis periods, whether due to disinvestment, loss of purchasing power among health care personnel or the decrease in the number of professionals. This worsens the situation, as it is necessary to cover the needs of an increasingly elderly population and with a longer life expectancy at birth. The present study intends to show a model which explains the determination of the "Public Health Personnel Expenditure" in Spain for a determined period. A multiple linear regression model was applied to the period including the years 1980-2021. Macroeconomic and demographic variables were analyzed to explain the dependent variable. Variation in health personnel expenditure: "We included those variables which presented a high or very high correlation above r > 0.6. The variables which explain the behavior of Variation in health personnel expenditure". It was a determining factor in the present study to consider that the variables with the greatest repercussions on health policy were mainly macroeconomic variables rather than demographic variables, with the only significant demographic variable that had a specific weight lower than macroeconomic variables being "Birth Rate". In this sense, the contribution made to the scientific literature is to establish an explanatory model so that public policy managers and states in particular can consider it in their public spending policies, bearing in mind that health expenditures in a Beveridge-style health system, as Spain has, are paid with funds drawn from tax revenues.

Evaluating the potential cost-effectiveness of microarray patches to expand access to hepatitis B birth dose vaccination in low-and middle-income countries: A modelling study

Timely birth dose vaccination is key for achieving elimination of hepatitis B, however, programmatic requirements for delivering current vaccine presentations to births outside of health facilities inhibits coverage within many low-and middle-income countries (LMICs). Vaccine technologies in development such as microarray patches (MAPs) could assist in overcoming these barriers, but procurement could incur higher per-dose commodity costs than current ten-dose (US$0.34) and single-dose (US$0.62) vial presentations, necessitating an evaluation of the economic value proposition for MAPs. Within 80 LMICs offering universal hepatitis B birth dose vaccination, the cost-effectiveness of using MAPs to expand coverage was evaluated using a mathematical model. We considered three potential per dose MAP prices (US$1.65, US$3.30, and US$5.00), and two potential MAP use-cases: (1) MAPs are used by lay-health workers to expand birth dose coverage outside of health facility settings, and (2) MAPs are also preferred by qualified health workers, replacing a proportion of existing coverage from vaccine vials. Analysis took the health system perspective, was costed in 2020 US$, and discounted at 3% annually. Across minimal (1% additional coverage) and maximal (10% additional and 10% replacement coverage) MAP usage scenarios, between 2.5 (interquartile range [IQR]: 1.9, 3.1) and 38 (IQR: 28,44) thousand DALYs were averted over the estimated 2020 birth cohort lifetime in 80 LMICs. Efficiency of MAPs was greatest when used to provide additional coverage (scenario 1), on average saving US$88.65 ($15.44, $171.22) per DALY averted at a price of US$5.00 per MAP. Efficiency was reduced when used to replace existing coverage (scenario 2); however, at prices up to US$5.00 per MAP, we estimate this use-case could remain cost-effective in at least 73 (91%) modelled LMICs. Our findings suggest even at higher procurement costs, MAPs are likely to represent a highly cost-effective or cost-saving mechanism to expand reach of birth dose vaccination in LMICs.

Design and interactive performance of human resource management system based on artificial intelligence

The purpose is to strengthen Human Resources Management (HRM) through information management using Artificial Intelligence (AI) technology. First, the selection criteria of the applicant's resume during recruitment and the formulation standards of the contract salary are analyzed. Then, the resume information is extracted and converted into the data-type format. Besides, the salary forecast model in the HRM system (HRMS) is designed based on the Back Propagation Neural Network (BPNN), and network structure, parameter initialization, and activation function of the BPNN are selected and optimized. The experimental results demonstrate that the algorithm optimized by the Nadm has shown improved convergence speed and forecast effect, with 187 iterations. Moreover, compared with other regression algorithms, the designed algorithm achieves the best test scores. The above results can provide references for designing the AI-based HRMS.

Cost Evaluation of Minimally Invasive Tissue Sampling (MITS) Implementation in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

Background

Low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) face disproportionately high mortality rates, yet the causes of death in LMICs are not robustly understood, limiting the effectiveness of interventions to reduce mortality. Minimally invasive tissue sampling (MITS) is a standardized postmortem examination method that holds promise for use in LMICs, where other approaches for determining cause of death are too costly or unacceptable. This study documents the costs associated with implementing the MITS procedure in LMICs from the healthcare provider perspective and aims to inform resource allocation decisions by public health decisionmakers.

Methods

We surveyed 4 sites in LMICs across Sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia with experience conducting MITS. Using a bottom-up costing approach, we collected direct costs of resources (labor and materials) to conduct MITS and the pre-implementation costs required to initiate MITS.

Results

Initial investments range widely yet represent a substantial cost to implement MITS and are determined by the existing infrastructure and needs of a site. The costs to conduct a single case range between $609 and $1028 per case and are driven by labor, sample testing, and MITS supplies costs.

Conclusions

Variation in each site’s use of staff roles and testing protocols suggests sites conducting MITS may adapt use of resources based on available expertise, equipment, and surveillance objectives. This study is a first step toward necessary examinations of cost-effectiveness, which may provide insight into cost optimization and economic justification for the expansion of MITS.

Stark choices: exploring health sector costs of policy responses to COVID-19 in low-income and middle-income countries

OBJECTIVES

COVID-19 has altered health sector capacity in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). Cost data to inform evidence-based priority setting are urgently needed. Consequently, in this paper, we calculate the full economic health sector costs of COVID-19 clinical management in 79 LMICs under different epidemiological scenarios.

METHODS

We used country-specific epidemiological projections from a dynamic transmission model to determine number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths over 1 year under four mitigation scenarios. We defined the health sector response for three base LMICs through guidelines and expert opinion. We calculated costs through local resource use and price data and extrapolated costs across 79 LMICs. Lastly, we compared cost estimates against gross domestic product (GDP) and total annual health expenditure in 76 LMICs.

RESULTS

COVID-19 clinical management costs vary greatly by country, ranging between <0.1%-12% of GDP and 0.4%-223% of total annual health expenditure (excluding out-of-pocket payments). Without mitigation policies, COVID-19 clinical management costs per capita range from US$43.39 to US$75.57; in 22 of 76 LMICs, these costs would surpass total annual health expenditure. In a scenario of stringent social distancing, costs per capita fall to US$1.10-US$1.32.

CONCLUSIONS

We present the first dataset of COVID-19 clinical management costs across LMICs. These costs can be used to inform decision-making on priority setting. Our results show that COVID-19 clinical management costs in LMICs are substantial, even in scenarios of moderate social distancing. Low-income countries are particularly vulnerable and some will struggle to cope with almost any epidemiological scenario. The choices facing LMICs are likely to remain stark and emergency financial support will be needed.

Selective laser trabeculoplasty versus 0·5% timolol eye drops for the treatment of glaucoma in Tanzania: a randomised controlled trial

BACKGROUND

Glaucoma is a major cause of sight loss worldwide, with the highest regional prevalence and incidence reported in Africa. The most common low-cost treatment used to control glaucoma is long-term timolol eye drops. However, low adherence is a major challenge. We aimed to investigate whether selective laser trabeculoplasty (SLT) was superior to timolol eye drops for controlling intraocular pressure (IOP) in patients with open-angle glaucoma.

METHODS

We did a two-arm, parallel-group, single-masked randomised controlled trial at the Eye Department of Kilimanjaro Christian Medical Centre, Moshi, Tanzania. Eligible participants (aged ≥18 years) had open-angle glaucoma and an IOP above 21 mm Hg, and did not have asthma or a history of glaucoma surgery or laser. Participants were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive 0·5% timolol eye drops to administer twice daily or to receive SLT. The primary outcome was the proportion of eyes from both groups with treatment success, defined as an IOP below or equal to target pressure according to glaucoma severity, at 12 months following randomisation. Re-explanation of eye drop application or a repeat SLT was permitted once. The primary analysis was by modified intention-to-treat, excluding participants lost to follow-up, using logistic regression; generalised estimating equations were used to adjust for the correlation between eyes. This trial was registered with the Pan African Clinical Trials Registry, number PACTR201508001235339.

FINDINGS

840 patients were screened for eligibility, of whom 201 (24%) participants (382 eligible eyes) were enrolled between Aug 31, 2015, and May 12, 2017. 100 (50%) participants (191 eyes) were randomly assigned to the timolol group and 101 (50%; 191 eyes) to the SLT group. After 1 year, 339 (89%) of 382 eyes were analysed. Treatment was successful in 55 (31%) of 176 eyes in the timolol group (16 [29%] of 55 eyes required repeat administration counselling) and in 99 (61%) of 163 eyes in the SLT group (33 [33%] of 99 eyes required repeat SLT; odds ratio 3·37 [95% CI 1·96-5·80]; p<0·0001). Adverse events (mostly unrelated to ocular events) occurred in ten (10%) participants in the timolol group and in eight (8%) participants in the SLT group (p=0·61).

INTERPRETATION

SLT was superior to timolol eye drops for managing patients with open-angle high-pressure glaucoma for 1 year in Tanzania. SLT has the potential to transform the management of glaucoma in sub-Saharan Africa, even where the prevalence of advanced glaucoma is high.

FUNDING

Christian Blind Mission, Seeing is Believing Innovation Fund, and the Wellcome Trust.

TRANSLATIONS

For the Kiswahili, French and Portuguese translations of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Budgeting for comprehensive sexual and reproductive health and rights under universal health coverage

Achieving universal health coverage (UHC) for sexual and reproductive health (SRH) requires informed budgeting that is aligned with UHC objectives. We draw data from Adding It Up 2019 (AIU-2019) to provide critical new country-level and regional, intervention-specific costs for the provision of SRH services. AIU-2019 is a cost-outcomes analysis, undertaken from the health system perspective, which estimates the costs and impacts of offering SRH care in low- and middle-income countries. We present direct cost estimates for 109 SRH interventions and find that human resources comprise the largest category of direct SRH service costs and that the most expensive services in the model are largely preventable. We use scenario analysis to explore the synergistic costs and impacts of providing SRH interventions in clusters, focussing on chlamydia and gonorrhoea treatment, provision of safe abortion and post-abortion care services, and safe childbirth services. When costs are considered for the preventive and impacted services in these three clusters, there are cost savings for some of the impacted services in the packages and for the abortion-related package overall. The direct cost estimates from our analysis can be used to guide UHC budgeting and planning efforts. Having these cost estimates and understanding the potential for cost savings when providing comprehensive SRH services are critical for efforts to fulfil the rights and needs of all individuals, including the most marginalised, to access this essential care.

Cost of vaccine delivery strategies in low- and middle-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted immunization services critical to the prevention of vaccine-preventable diseases in many low- and middle- income countries around the world. These services will need to be modified in order to minimize COVID-19 transmission and ensure the safety of health workers and the community. Additional budget will be required to implement these modifications that ensure safe delivery.

Methods

Using a simple modeling analysis, we estimated the additional resource requirements associated with modifications to supplementary immunization activities (campaigns) and routine immunization services via fixed sites and outreach in 2020 US dollars. We considered the following four categories of costs: (1) personal protective equipment (PPE) & infection prevention and control (IPC) measures for immunization sessions; (2) physical distancing and screening during immunization sessions; (3) delivery strategy changes, such as changes in session sizes and frequency; and (4) other operational cost increases, including additional social mobilization, training, and hazard pay to compensate health workers.

Results

We found that implementing a range of measures to protect health workers and communities from COVID-19 transmission could result in a per-facility start-up cost of $466–799 for routine fixed-site delivery and $12–220 for routine outreach delivery, and $12–108 per immunization campaign site. A recurrent monthly cost of $137–1,024 for fixed-site delivery and $152–848 for outreach delivery per facility could be incurred, and a $0.32–0.85 increase in the cost per dose during campaigns.

Conclusions

By illustrating potential cost implications of providing immunization services through a range of strategies in a safe manner, these estimates can provide a benchmark for program managers and policy makers on the additional budget required. These findings can help country practitioners and global development partners planning the continuation of immunization services in the context of COVID-19.

The Sensitivity and Costs of Testing for SARS-CoV-2 Infection With Saliva Versus Nasopharyngeal Swabs : A Systematic Review and Meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Nasopharyngeal swabs are the primary sampling method used for detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), but they require a trained health care professional and extensive personal protective equipment.

PURPOSE

To determine the difference in sensitivity for SARS-CoV-2 detection between nasopharyngeal swabs and saliva and estimate the incremental cost per additional SARS-CoV-2 infection detected with nasopharyngeal swabs.

DATA SOURCES

Embase, Medline, medRxiv, and bioRxiv were searched from 1 January to 1 November 2020. Cost inputs were from nationally representative sources in Canada and were converted to 2020 U.S. dollars.

STUDY SELECTION

Studies including at least 5 paired nasopharyngeal swab and saliva samples and reporting diagnostic accuracy for SARS-CoV-2 detection.

DATA EXTRACTION

Data were independently extracted using standardized forms, and study quality was assessed using QUADAS-2 (Quality Assessment of Diagnostic Accuracy Studies 2).

DATA SYNTHESIS

Thirty-seven studies with 7332 paired samples were included. Against a reference standard of a positive result on either sample, the sensitivity of saliva was 3.4 percentage points lower (95% CI, 9.9 percentage points lower to 3.1 percentage points higher) than that of nasopharyngeal swabs. Among persons with previously confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, saliva's sensitivity was 1.5 percentage points higher (CI, 7.3 percentage points lower to 10.3 percentage points higher) than that of nasopharyngeal swabs. Among persons without a previous SARS-CoV-2 diagnosis, saliva was 7.9 percentage points less (CI, 14.7 percentage points less to 0.8 percentage point more) sensitive. In this subgroup, if testing 100 000 persons with a SARS-CoV-2 prevalence of 1%, nasopharyngeal swabs would detect 79 more (95% uncertainty interval, 5 fewer to 166 more) persons with SARS-CoV-2 than saliva, but with an incremental cost per additional infection detected of $8093.

LIMITATION

The reference standard was imperfect, and saliva collection procedures varied.

CONCLUSION

Saliva sampling seems to be a similarly sensitive and less costly alternative that could replace nasopharyngeal swabs for collection of clinical samples for SARS-CoV-2 testing.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

McGill Interdisciplinary Initiative in Infection and Immunity. (PROSPERO: CRD42020203415).

The benefits of action to reduce household air pollution (BAR-HAP) model: A new decision support tool

Cooking with polluting and inefficient fuels and technologies is responsible for a large set of global harms, ranging from health and time losses among the billions of people who are energy poor, to environmental degradation at a regional and global scale. This paper presents a new decision-support model–the BAR-HAP Tool–that is aimed at guiding planning of policy interventions to accelerate transitions towards cleaner cooking fuels and technologies. The conceptual model behind BAR-HAP lies in a framework of costs and benefits that is holistic and comprehensive, allows consideration of multiple policy interventions (subsidies, financing, bans, and behavior change communication), and realistically accounts for partial adoption and use of improved cooking technology. It incorporates evidence from recent efforts to characterize the relevant set of parameters that determine those costs and benefits, including those related to intervention effectiveness. Practical aspects of the tool were modified based on feedback from a pilot testing workshop with multisectoral users in Nepal. To demonstrate the functionality of the BAR-HAP tool, we present illustrative calculations related to several cooking transitions in the context of Nepal. In accounting for the multifaceted nature of the issue of household air pollution, the BAR-HAP model is expected to facilitate cross-sector dialogue and problem-solving to address this major health, environment and development challenge.

Projected health-care resource needs for an effective response to COVID-19 in 73 low-income and middle-income countries: a modelling study

BACKGROUND

Since WHO declared the COVID-19 pandemic a Public Health Emergency of International Concern, more than 20 million cases have been reported, as of Aug 24, 2020. This study aimed to identify what the additional health-care costs of a strategic preparedness and response plan (SPRP) would be if current transmission levels are maintained in a status quo scenario, or under scenarios where transmission is increased or decreased by 50%.

METHODS

The number of COVID-19 cases was projected for 73 low-income and middle-income countries for each of the three scenarios for both 4-week and 12-week timeframes, starting from June 26, 2020. An input-based approach was used to estimate the additional health-care costs associated with human resources, commodities, and capital inputs that would be accrued in implementing the SPRP.

FINDINGS

The total cost estimate for the COVID-19 response in the status quo scenario was US$52·45 billion over 4 weeks, at $8·60 per capita. For the decreased or increased transmission scenarios, the totals were $33·08 billion and $61·92 billion, respectively. Costs would triple under the status quo and increased transmission scenarios at 12 weeks. The costs of the decreased transmission scenario over 12 weeks was equivalent to the cost of the status quo scenario at 4 weeks. By percentage of the overall cost, case management (54%), maintaining essential services (21%), rapid response and case investigation (14%), and infection prevention and control (9%) were the main cost drivers.

INTERPRETATION

The sizeable costs of a COVID-19 response in the health sector will escalate, particularly if transmission increases. Instituting early and comprehensive measures to limit the further spread of the virus will conserve resources and sustain the response.

FUNDING

WHO, and UK Foreign Commonwealth and Development Office.

Estimating the Unit Costs of Healthcare Service Delivery in India: Addressing Information Gaps for Price Setting and Health Technology Assessment

BACKGROUND

India's flagship National Health insurance programme (AB-PMJAY) requires accurate cost information for evidence-based decision-making, strategic purchasing of health services and setting reimbursement rates. To address the challenge of limited health service cost data, this study used econometric methods to identify determinants of cost and estimate unit costs for each Indian state.

METHODS

Using data from 81 facilities in six states, models were developed for inpatient and outpatient services at primary and secondary level public health facilities. A best-fit unit cost function was identified using guided stepwise regression and combined with data on health service infrastructure and utilisation to predict state-level unit costs.

RESULTS

Health service utilisation had the greatest influence on unit cost, while number of beds, facility level and the state were also good predictors. For district hospitals, predicted cost per inpatient admission ranged from 1028 (313-3429) Indian Rupees (INR) to 4499 (1451-14,159) INR and cost per outpatient visit ranged from 91 (44-196) INR to 657 (339-1337) INR, across the states. For community healthcare centres and primary healthcare centres, cost per admission ranged from 412 (148-1151) INR to 3677 (1359-10,055) INR and cost per outpatient visit ranged from 96 (50-187) INR to 429 (217-844) INR.

CONCLUSION

This is the first time cost estimates for inpatient admissions and outpatient visits for all states have been estimated using standardised data. The model demonstrates the usefulness of such an approach in the Indian context to help inform health technology assessment, budgeting and forecasting, as well as differential pricing, and could be applied to similar country contexts where cost data are limited.

Health workers' strikes in low-income countries: the available evidence

Objective

To analyse the characteristics, frequency, drivers, outcomes and stakeholders of health workers' strikes in low-income countries.

Methods

We reviewed the published and grey literature from online sources for the years 2009 to 2018. We used four search strategies: (i) exploration of main health and social sciences databases; (ii) use of specialized websites on human resources for health and development; (iii) customized Google search; and (iv) consultation with experts to validate findings. To analyse individual strike episodes, pre-existing conditions and influencing actors, we developed a conceptual framework from the literature.

Results

We identified 116 records reporting on 70 unique health workers' strikes in 23 low-income countries during the period, accounting for 875 days of strike. Year 2018 had the highest number of events (17), corresponding to 170 work days lost. Strikes involving more than one professional category was the frequent strike modality (32 events), followed by strikes by physicians only (22 events). The most commonly reported cause was complaints about remuneration (63 events), followed by protest against the sector's governance or policies (25 events) and safety of working conditions (10 events). Positive resolution was achieved more often when collective bargaining institutions and higher levels of government were involved in the negotiations.

Conclusion

In low-income countries, some common features appear to exist in health sector strikes' occurrence and actors involved in such events. Future research should focus on both individual events and regional patterns, to form an evidence base for mechanisms to prevent and resolve strikes.