Preferences for Postacute Care at Home vs Facilities

Importance

Two in 5 US hospital stays result in rehabilitative postacute care, typically through skilled nursing facilities (SNFs) or home health agencies (HHAs). However, a lack of clear guidelines and understanding of patient and caregiver preferences make it challenging to promote high-value patient-centered care.

Objective

To assess preferences and willingness to pay for facility-based vs home-based postacute care among patients and caregivers, considering demographic variations.

Design, Setting, and Participants

In September 2022, a nationally representative survey was conducted with participants 45 years or older. Using a discrete choice experiment, participants acting as patients or caregivers chose between facility-based and home-based postacute care that best met their preferences, needs, and family conditions. Survey weights were applied to generate nationally representative estimates.

Main Outcomes and Measures

Preferences and willingness to pay for various attributes of postacute care settings were assessed, examining variation based on demographic factors, socioeconomic status, job security, and previous care experiences.

Results

A total of 2077 adults were invited to participate in the survey; 1555 (74.9%) completed the survey. In the weighted sample, 52.9% of participants were women, 6.5% were Asian or Pacific Islander, 1.7% were American Indian or Alaska Native, 11.2% were Black or African American, 78.4% were White; the mean (SD) age was 62.6 (9.6) years; and there was a survey completion rate of 74.9%. Patients and caregivers showed a substantial willingness to pay for home-based and high-quality care. Patients and caregivers were willing to pay an additional $58.08 per day (95% CI, 45.32-70.83) and $45.54 per day (95% CI, 31.09-59.99) for HHA care compared with a shared SNF room, respectively. However, increased demands on caregiver time within an HHA scenario and socioeconomic challenges, such as insecure employment, shifted caregivers' preferences toward facility-based care. There was a strong aversion to below average quality. To avoid below average SNF care, patients and caregivers were willing to pay $75.21 per day (95% CI, 61.68-88.75) and $79.10 per day (95% CI, 63.29-94.91) compared with average-quality care, respectively. Additionally, prior awareness and experience with postacute care was associated with willingness to pay for home-based care. No differences in preferences among patients and caregivers based on race, educational background, urban or rural residence, general health status, or housing type were observed.

Conclusions and Relevance

The findings of this survey study underscore a prevailing preference for home-based postacute care, aligning with current policy trends. However, attention is warranted for disadvantaged groups who are potentially overlooked during the shift toward home-based care, particularly those facing caregiver constraints and socioeconomic hardships. Ensuring equitable support and improved quality measure tools are crucial for promoting patient-centric postacute care, with emphasis on addressing the needs of marginalized groups.

Health impact and cost-effectiveness of expanding routine immunization coverage in India through Intensified Mission Indradhanush

Many children do not receive a full schedule of childhood vaccines, yet there is limited evidence on the cost-effectiveness of strategies for improving vaccination coverage. Evidence is even scarcer on the cost-effectiveness of strategies for reaching "zero-dose children," who have not received any routine vaccines. We evaluated the cost-effectiveness of periodic intensification of routine immunization (PIRI), a widely applied strategy for increasing vaccination coverage. We focused on Intensified Mission Indradhanush (IMI), a large-scale PIRI intervention implemented in India in 2017-2018. In 40 sampled districts, we measured the incremental economic cost of IMI using primary data, and used controlled interrupted time-series regression to estimate incremental vaccination doses delivered. We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) averted using the Lives Saved Tool and reported cost-effectiveness from immunization program and societal perspectives. We found that, in sampled districts, IMI had an estimated incremental cost of 2021US$13.7 (95% uncertainty interval: 10.6 to 17.4) million from an immunization program perspective and increased vaccine delivery by an estimated 2.2 (-0.5 to 4.8) million doses over a 12-month period, averting an estimated 1,413 (-350 to 3,129) deaths. The incremental cost from a program perspective was $6.21 per dose ($2.80 to dominated), $82.99 per zero-dose child reached ($39.85 to dominated), $327.63 ($147.65 to dominated) per DALY averted, $360.72 ($162.56 to dominated) per life-year saved, and $9,701.35 ($4,372.01 to dominated) per under-five death averted. At a cost-effectiveness threshold of 1x per-capita GDP per DALY averted, IMI was estimated to be cost-effective with 90% probability. This evidence suggests IMI was both impactful and cost-effective for improving vaccination coverage, though there is a high degree of uncertainty in the results. As vaccination programs expand coverage, unit costs may increase due to the higher costs of reaching currently unvaccinated children.

Framework for determining the optimal course of action when efficiency and affordability measures differ by perspective in cost-effectiveness analysis-with an illustrative case of HIV treatment in Mozambique

BACKGROUND

Cost-effectiveness analysis (CEA) is a standard tool for evaluating health programs and informing decisions about resource allocation and prioritization. Most CEAs evaluating health interventions in low- and middle-income countries adopt a health sector perspective, accounting for resources funded by international donors and country governments, while often excluding out-of-pocket expenditures and time costs borne by program beneficiaries. Even when patients' costs are included, a companion analysis focused on the patient perspective is rarely performed. We view this as a missed opportunity.

METHODS

We developed methods for assessing intervention affordability and evaluating whether optimal interventions from the health sector perspective also represent efficient and affordable options for patients. We mapped the five different patterns that a comparison of the perspective results can yield into a practical framework, and we provided guidance for researchers and decision-makers on how to use results from multiple perspectives. To illustrate the methodology, we conducted a CEA of six HIV treatment delivery models in Mozambique. We conducted a Monte Carlo microsimulation with probabilistic sensitivity analysis from both patient and health sector perspectives, generating incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for the treatment approaches. We also calculated annualized patient costs for the treatment approaches, comparing the costs with an affordability threshold. We then compared the cost-effectiveness and affordability results from the two perspectives using the framework we developed.

RESULTS

In this case, the two perspectives did not produce a shared optimal approach for HIV treatment at the willingness-to-pay threshold of 0.3 × Mozambique's annual GDP per capita per DALY averted. However, the clinical 6-month antiretroviral drug distribution strategy, which is optimal from the health sector perspective, is efficient and affordable from the patient perspective. All treatment approaches, except clinical 1-month distributions of antiretroviral drugs which were standard before Covid-19, had an annual cost to patients less than the country's annual average for out-of-pocket health expenditures.

CONCLUSION

Including a patient perspective in CEAs and explicitly considering affordability offers decision-makers additional insights either by confirming that the optimal strategy from the health sector perspective is also efficient and affordable from the patient perspective or by identifying incongruencies in value or affordability that could affect patient participation.

Unit cost repositories for health program planning and evaluation: a report on research in practice with lessons learned

BACKGROUND

Most low- and middle-income countries have limited access to cost data that meets the needs of health policy-makers and researchers in health intervention areas including HIV, tuberculosis, and immunization. Unit cost repositories (UCRs)-searchable databases that systematically codify evidence from costing studies-have been developed to reduce the effort required to access and use existing costing information. These repositories serve as public resources and standard references, which can improve the consistency and quality of resource needs projections used for strategic planning and resource mobilization. UCRs also enable analysis of cost determinants and more informed imputation of missing cost data. This report examines our experiences developing and using seven UCRs (two global, five country-level) for cost projection and research purposes.

DISCUSSION

We identify advances, challenges, enablers, and lessons learned that might inform future work related to UCRs. Our lessons learned include: (1) UCRs do not replace the need for costing expertise; (2) tradeoffs are required between the degree of data complexity and the useability of the UCR; (3) streamlining data extraction makes populating the UCR with new data easier; (4) immediate reporting and planning needs often drive stakeholder interest in cost data; (5) developing and maintaining UCRs requires dedicated staff time; (6) matching decision-maker needs with appropriate cost data can be challenging; (7) UCRs must have data quality control systems; (8) data in UCRs can become obsolete; and (9) there is often a time lag between the identification of a cost and its inclusion in UCRs.

CONCLUSIONS

UCRs have the potential to be a valuable public good if kept up-to-date with active quality control and adequate support available to end-users. Global UCR collaboration networks and greater control by local stakeholders over global UCRs may increase active, sustained use of global repositories and yield higher quality results for strategic planning and resource mobilization.

Health Impact and Cost-Effectiveness of HIV Testing, Linkage, and Early Antiretroviral Treatment in the Botswana Combination Prevention Project

BACKGROUND

The Botswana Combination Prevention Project tested the impact of combination prevention (CP) on HIV incidence in a community-randomized trial. Each trial arm had ∼55,000 people, 26% HIV prevalence, and 72% baseline ART coverage. Results showed intensive testing and linkage campaigns, expanded antiretroviral treatment (ART), and voluntary male medical circumcision referrals increased coverage and decreased incidence over ∼29 months of follow-up. We projected lifetime clinical impact and cost-effectiveness of CP in this population.

SETTING

Rural and periurban communities in Botswana.

METHODS

We used the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications model to estimate lifetime health impact and cost of (1) earlier ART initiation and (2) averting an HIV infection, which we applied to incremental ART initiations and averted infections calculated from trial data. We determined the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio [US$/quality-adjusted life-years (QALY)] for CP vs. standard of care.

RESULTS

In CP, 1418 additional people with HIV initiated ART and an additional 304 infections were averted. For each additional person started on ART, life expectancy increased 0.90 QALYs and care costs increased by $869. For each infection averted, life expectancy increased 2.43 QALYs with $9200 in care costs saved. With CP, an additional $1.7 million were spent on prevention and $1.2 million on earlier treatment. These costs were mostly offset by decreased care costs from averted infections, resulting in an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $79 per QALY.

CONCLUSIONS

Enhanced HIV testing, linkage, and early ART initiation improve life expectancy, reduce transmission, and can be cost-effective or cost-saving in settings like Botswana.

Estimating the cost of COVID-19 vaccine deployment and introduction in Ghana using the CVIC Tool

•

Current COVID-19 vaccine supply market means LMICs will have to rely on a combination of different sources/types of vaccines to meet their demand.

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Deployment of COVID-19 vaccine plans in Ghana will cost $348.7–$436.1 million for coverage of 17.5 million of eligible Ghanaians.

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Vaccine cost constitute 78–83% of total cost whereas the total vaccination cost is 0.48–0.60% of the country’s 2020 GDP.

•

The WHO-UNICEF CVIC tool is useful for comprehensive COVID-19 vaccine deployment costing and resource planning.

Background

This study estimated cost of COVID-19 vaccine introduction and deployment in Ghana.

Methods

Using the WHO-UNICEF COVID-19 Vaccine Introduction and deployment Costing (CVIC) tool Ghana’s Ministry of Health Technical Working Group for Health Technology Assessment (TWG-HTA) in collaboration with School of Public Health, University of Ghana, organized an initial two-day workshop that brought together partners to deliberate and agree on input parameters to populate the CVIC tool. A further 2–3 days validation with the Expanded Program of Immunization (EPI) and other partners to finalize the analysis was done. Three scenarios, with different combinations of vaccine products and delivery modalities, as well as time period were analyzed. The scenarios included AstraZeneca (40%), Johnson & Johnson (J&J) (30%), Moderna, Pfizer, and Sputnik V at 10% each; with primary schedule completed by second half of 2021 (Scenario 1); AstraZeneca (30%), J&J (40%), Moderna, Pfizer, and Sputnik V at 10% each with primary schedule completed by first half of 2022 (Scenario 2); and equal distribution (20%) among AstraZeneca, J&J, Moderna, Pfizer, and Sputnik V with primary schedule completed by second half of 2022 (Scenario 3).

Results

The estimated total cost of COVID-19 vaccination ranges between $348.7 and $436.1 million for the target population of 17.5 million. These translate into per person completed primary schedule cost of $20.9–$26.2 and per dose (including vaccine cost) of $10.5–$13.1. Again, per person completed primary schedule excluding vaccine cost was $4.5 and $4.6, thus per dose excluding vaccine also ranged from $2.2 – $2.3. The main cost driver was vaccine doses, including shipping, which accounts for between 78% and 83% of total cost. Further, an estimated 8,437–10,247 vaccinators (non-FTEs) would be required during 2021–2022 to vaccinate using a mix of delivery strategies, accounting for 8–10% of total cost.

Conclusion

These findings provide the estimates to inform resource mobilization efforts by government and other partners.

Impact of campaign-style delivery of routine vaccines: a quasi-experimental evaluation using routine health services data in India

The world is not on track to achieve the goals for immunization coverage and equity described by the World Health Organization's Global Vaccine Action Plan. Many countries struggle to increase coverage of routine vaccination, and there is little evidence about how to do so effectively. In India in 2016, only 62% of children had received a full course of basic vaccines. In response, in 2017-18 the government implemented Intensified Mission Indradhanush (IMI), a nationwide effort to improve coverage and equity using a campaign-style strategy. Campaign-style approaches to routine vaccine delivery like IMI, sometimes called 'periodic intensification of routine immunization' (PIRI), are widely used, but there is little robust evidence on their effectiveness. We conducted a quasi-experimental evaluation of IMI using routine data on vaccine doses delivered, comparing districts participating and not participating in IMI. Our sample included all districts that could be merged with India's 2016 Demographic and Health Surveys data and had available data for the full study period. We used controlled interrupted time-series analysis to estimate the impact of IMI during the 4-month implementation period and in subsequent months. This method assumes that, if IMI had not occurred, vaccination trends would have changed in the same way in the participating and not participating districts. We found that, during implementation, IMI increased delivery of 13 infant vaccines, with a median effect of 10.6% (95% confidence interval 5.1% to 16.5%). We did not find evidence of a sustained effect during the 8 months after implementation ended. Over the 12 months from the beginning of implementation, we estimated reductions in the number of under-immunized children that were large but not statistically significant, ranging from 3.9% (-6.9% to 13.7%) to 35.7% (-7.5% to 77.4%) for different vaccines. The largest effects were for the first doses of vaccines against diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis and polio: IMI reached approximately one-third of children who would otherwise not have received these vaccines. This suggests that PIRI can be successful in increasing routine immunization coverage, particularly for early infant vaccines, but other approaches may be needed for sustained coverage improvements.

Cost of vaccine delivery strategies in low- and middle-income countries during the COVID-19 pandemic

Background

The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted immunization services critical to the prevention of vaccine-preventable diseases in many low- and middle- income countries around the world. These services will need to be modified in order to minimize COVID-19 transmission and ensure the safety of health workers and the community. Additional budget will be required to implement these modifications that ensure safe delivery.

Methods

Using a simple modeling analysis, we estimated the additional resource requirements associated with modifications to supplementary immunization activities (campaigns) and routine immunization services via fixed sites and outreach in 2020 US dollars. We considered the following four categories of costs: (1) personal protective equipment (PPE) & infection prevention and control (IPC) measures for immunization sessions; (2) physical distancing and screening during immunization sessions; (3) delivery strategy changes, such as changes in session sizes and frequency; and (4) other operational cost increases, including additional social mobilization, training, and hazard pay to compensate health workers.

Results

We found that implementing a range of measures to protect health workers and communities from COVID-19 transmission could result in a per-facility start-up cost of $466–799 for routine fixed-site delivery and $12–220 for routine outreach delivery, and $12–108 per immunization campaign site. A recurrent monthly cost of $137–1,024 for fixed-site delivery and $152–848 for outreach delivery per facility could be incurred, and a $0.32–0.85 increase in the cost per dose during campaigns.

Conclusions

By illustrating potential cost implications of providing immunization services through a range of strategies in a safe manner, these estimates can provide a benchmark for program managers and policy makers on the additional budget required. These findings can help country practitioners and global development partners planning the continuation of immunization services in the context of COVID-19.

What We Do Not Know About the Costs of Immunization Programs in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

• For many countries, there are limited data on the costs of running immunization services, and even less on the costs of increasing immunization coverage. • When considering different approaches for scaling up coverage, countries and funders need to understand the marginal change in coverage produced, costs of introduction, and how cost and coverage effects change depending on programmatic context. • Costing studies would benefit from improved, systematic reporting and leveraging ongoing program evaluation efforts to collect costing data. Long-term investments in the health system may allow for routine data collection and improved efficiency for budgeting and planning.

Producing Standardized Country-Level Immunization Delivery Unit Cost Estimates

BACKGROUND

To plan for the financial sustainability of immunization programs and make informed decisions to improve immunization coverage and equity, decision-makers need to know how much these programs cost beyond the cost of the vaccine. Non-vaccine delivery cost estimates can significantly influence the cost-effectiveness estimates used to allocate resources at the country level. However, many low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) do not have immunization delivery unit cost estimates available, or have estimates that are uncertain, unreliable, or old. We undertook a Bayesian evidence synthesis to generate country-level estimates of immunization delivery unit costs for LMICs.

METHODS

From a database of empirical immunization costing studies, we extracted estimates of the delivery cost per dose for routine childhood immunization services, excluding vaccine costs. A Bayesian meta-regression model was used to regress delivery cost per dose estimates, stratified by cost category, against a set of predictor variables including country-level [gross domestic product per capita, reported diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis third dose coverage (DTP3), population, and number of doses in the routine vaccination schedule] and study-level (study year, single antigen or programmatic cost per dose, and financial or economic cost) predictors. The fitted prediction model was used to generate standardized estimates of the routine immunization delivery cost per dose for each LMIC for 2009-2018. Alternative regression models were specified in sensitivity analyses.

RESULTS

We estimated the prediction model using the results from 29 individual studies, covering 24 countries. The predicted economic cost per dose for routine delivery of childhood vaccines (2018 US dollars), not including the price of the vaccine, was $1.87 (95% uncertainty interval $0.64-4.38) across all LMICs. By individual cost category, the programmatic economic cost per dose for routine delivery of childhood vaccines was $0.74 ($0.26-1.70) for labor, $0.26 ($0.08-0.67) for supply chain, $0.22 ($0.06-0.57) for capital, and $0.65 ($0.20-1.66) for other service delivery costs.

CONCLUSIONS

Accurate immunization delivery costs are necessary for assessing the cost-effectiveness and strategic planning needs of immunization programs. The cost estimates from this analysis provide a broad indication of immunization delivery costs that may be useful when accurate local data are unavailable.

Cost-effectiveness of frequent HIV screening among high-risk young men who have sex with men in the United States

BACKGROUND

Of new HIV infections in the US, 20% occur among young men who have sex with men (YMSM, ages 13-24), but >50% of YMSM with HIV are unaware of their status. Using Adolescent Medicine Trials Network for HIV/AIDS Interventions (ATN) data, we projected the clinical benefit and cost-effectiveness of frequent HIV screening among high-risk YMSM from age 15.

METHODS

Using a mathematical simulation, we examined 3 screening strategies: Yearly, 6-monthly, and 3-monthly, each in addition to the Status quo (SQ, 0.7-10.3% screened/year, stratified by age). We used published data (YMSM-specific when available) including: HIV incidences (0.91-6.41/100PY); screen acceptance (80%), linkage-to-care/antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation (76%), HIV transmission (0.3-86.1/100PY, by HIV RNA), monthly ART costs ($2,290-$3,780), and HIV per-screen costs ($38). Projected outcomes included CD4 count at diagnosis, primary HIV transmissions from ages 15-30, quality-adjusted life expectancy, costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs, $/quality-adjusted life-year saved [QALY]; threshold ≤$100,000/QALY).

RESULTS

Compared to SQ, all strategies increased projected CD4 at diagnosis (296 to 477-515 cells/µL) and quality-adjusted life expectancy from age 15 (44.4 to 48.3-48.7 years) among YMSM acquiring HIV. Compared to SQ, all strategies increased discounted lifetime cost for the entire population ($170,800 to $178,100-$185,000/person). Screening 3-monthly was cost-effective (ICER: $4,500/QALY) compared to SQ and reduced primary transmissions through age 30 by 40%. Results were most sensitive to transmission rates; excluding the impact of transmissions, screening Yearly was ≤$100,000/QALY (ICER: $70,900/QALY).

CONCLUSIONS

For high-risk YMSM in the US, HIV screening 3-monthly compared to less frequent screening will improve clinical outcomes and be cost-effective.

A novel method to estimate the indirect community benefit of HIV interventions using a microsimulation model of HIV disease

BACKGROUND

Microsimulation models of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease that simulate individual patients one at a time and assess clinical and economic outcomes of HIV interventions often provide key details regarding direct individual clinical benefits ("individual benefit"), but they may lack detail on transmissions, and thus may underestimate an intervention's indirect benefits ("community benefit"). Dynamic transmission models can be used to simulate HIV transmissions, but they may do so at the expense of the clinical detail of microsimulations. We sought to develop, validate, and demonstrate a practical, novel method that can be integrated into existing HIV microsimulation models to capture this community benefit, integrating the effects of reduced transmission while keeping the clinical detail of microsimulations.

METHODS

We developed a new method to capture the community benefit of HIV interventions by estimating HIV transmissions from the primary cohort of interest. The method captures the benefit of averting infections within the cohort of interest by estimating a corresponding gradual decline in incidence within the cohort. For infections averted outside the cohort of interest, our method estimates transmissions averted based on reductions in HIV viral load within the cohort, and the benefit (life-years gained and cost savings) of averting those infections based on the time they were averted. To assess the validity of our method, we paired it with the Cost-effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications (CEPAC) Model - a validated and widely-published microsimulation model of HIV disease. We then compared the consistency of model-estimated outcomes against outcomes of a widely-validated dynamic compartmental transmission model of HIV disease, the HIV Optimization and Prevention Economics (HOPE) model, using the intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC) with a two-way mixed effects model. Replicating an analysis done with HOPE, validation endpoints were number of HIV transmissions averted by offering pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) to men who have sex with men (MSM) and people who inject drugs (PWID) in the US at various uptake and efficacy levels. Finally, we demonstrated an application of our method in a different setting by evaluating the clinical and economic outcomes of a PrEP program for MSM in India, a country currently considering PrEP rollout for this high-risk group.

RESULTS

The new method paired with CEPAC demonstrated excellent consistency with the HOPE model (ICC = 0.98 for MSM and 0.99 for PWID). With only the individual benefit of the intervention incorporated, a PrEP program for MSM in India averted 43,000 transmissions over a 5-year period and resulted in a lifetime incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of US$2,300/year-of-life saved (YLS) compared to the status quo. After applying both the direct (individual) and indirect (community) benefits, PrEP averted 86,000 transmissions over the same period and resulted in an ICER of US$600/YLS.

CONCLUSIONS

Our method enables HIV microsimulation models that evaluate clinical and economic outcomes of HIV interventions to estimate the community benefit of these interventions (in terms of survival gains and cost savings) efficiently and without sacrificing clinical detail. This method addresses an important methodological gap in health economics microsimulation modeling and allows decision scientists to make more accurate policy recommendations.

The efficiency of routine infant immunization services in six countries: a comparison of methods

BACKGROUND

Few studies have systematically examined the efficiency of routine infant immunization services. Using a representative sample of infant immunization sites in Benin, Ghana, Honduras, Moldova, Uganda and Zambia (316 total), we estimated average efficiency levels and variation in efficiency within each country, and investigated the properties of published efficiency estimation techniques.

METHODS

Using a dataset describing 316 immunization sites we estimated site-level efficiency using Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA), Stochastic Frontier Analysis (SFA), and a published ensemble method combining these two approaches. For these three methods we operationalized efficiency using the Sheppard input efficiency measure, which is bounded in (0, 1), with higher values indicating greater efficiency. We also compared these methods to a simple regression approach, which used residuals from a conventional production function as a simplified efficiency index. Inputs were site-level service delivery costs (excluding vaccines) and outputs were total clients receiving DTP3. We analyzed each country separately, and conducted sensitivity analysis for different input/output combinations.

RESULTS

Using DEA, average input efficiency ranged from 0.40 in Ghana and Moldova to 0.58 in Benin. Using SFA, average input efficiency ranged from 0.43 in Ghana to 0.69 in Moldova. Within each country scores varied widely, with standard deviation of 0.18-0.23 for DEA and 0.10-0.20 for SFA. Input efficiency estimates generated using SFA were systematically higher than for DEA, and the rank correlation between scores ranged between 0.56-0.79. Average input efficiency from the ensemble estimator ranged between 0.41-0.61 across countries, and was highly correlated with the simplified efficiency index (rank correlation 0.81-0.92) as well as the DEA and SFA estimates.

CONCLUSIONS

Results imply costs could be 30-60% lower for fully efficient sites. Such efficiency gains are unlikely to be achievable in practice - some of the apparent inefficiency may reflect measurement errors, or unmodifiable differences in the operating environment. However, adapted to work with routine reporting data and simplified methods, efficiency analysis could triage low performing sites for greater management attention, or identify more efficient sites as models for other facilities.

Developing and Validating Metamodels of a Microsimulation Model of Infant HIV Testing and Screening Strategies Used in a Decision Support Tool for Health Policy Makers

Background. Metamodels can simplify complex health policy models and yield instantaneous results to inform policy decisions. We investigated the predictive validity of linear regression metamodels used to support a real-time decision-making tool that compares infant HIV testing/screening strategies. Methods. We developed linear regression metamodels of the Cost-Effectiveness of Preventing AIDS Complications Pediatric (CEPAC-P) microsimulation model used to predict life expectancy and lifetime HIV-related costs/person of two infant HIV testing/screening programs in South Africa. Metamodel performance was assessed with cross-validation and Bland-Altman plots, showing between-method differences in predicted outcomes against their means. Predictive validity was determined by the percentage of simulations in which the metamodels accurately predicted the strategy with the greatest net health benefit (NHB) as projected by the CEPAC-P model. We introduced a zone of indifference and investigated the width needed to produce between-method agreement in 95% of the simulations. We also calculated NHB losses from "wrong" decisions by the metamodel. Results. In cross-validation, linear regression metamodels accurately approximated CEPAC-P-projected outcomes. For life expectancy, Bland-Altman plots showed good agreement between CEPAC-P and the metamodel (within 1.1 life-months difference). For costs, 95% of between-method differences were within $65/person. The metamodels predicted the same optimal strategy as the CEPAC-P model in 87.7% of simulations, increasing to 95% with a zone of indifference of 0.24 life-months ( ∼ 7 days). The losses in health benefits due to "wrong" choices by the metamodel were modest (range: 0.0002-1.1 life-months). Conclusions. For this policy question, linear regression metamodels offered sufficient predictive validity for the optimal testing strategy as compared with the CEPAC-P model. Metamodels can simulate different scenarios in real time, based on sets of input parameters that can be depicted in a widely accessible decision-support tool.

Systematic review of the costs and effectiveness of interventions to increase infant vaccination coverage in low- and middle-income countries

Background

In recent years, several large studies have assessed the costs of national infant immunization programs, and the results of these studies are used to support planning and budgeting in low- and middle-income countries. However, few studies have addressed the costs and cost-effectiveness of interventions to improve immunization coverage, despite this being a major focus of policy attention. Without this information, countries and international stakeholders have little objective evidence on the efficiency of competing interventions for improving coverage.

Methods

We conducted a systematic literature review on the costs and cost-effectiveness of interventions to improve immunization coverage in low- and middle-income countries, including both published and unpublished reports. We evaluated the quality of included studies and extracted data on costs and incremental coverage. Where possible, we calculated incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) to describe the efficiency of each intervention in increasing coverage.

Results

A total of 14 out of 41 full text articles reviewed met criteria for inclusion in the final review. Interventions for increasing immunization coverage included demand generation, modified delivery approaches, cash transfer programs, health systems strengthening, and novel technology usage. We observed substantial heterogeneity in costing methods and incompleteness of cost and coverage reporting. Most studies reported increases in coverage following the interventions, with coverage increasing by an average of 23 percentage points post-intervention across studies. ICERs ranged from $0.66 to $161.95 per child vaccinated in 2017 USD. We did not conduct a meta-analysis given the small number of estimates and variety of interventions included.

Conclusions

There is little quantitative evidence on the costs and cost-effectiveness of interventions for improving immunization coverage, despite this being a major objective for national immunization programs. Efforts to improve the level of costing evidence—such as by integrating cost analysis within implementation studies and trials of immunization scale up—could allow programs to better allocate resources for coverage improvement. Greater adoption of standardized cost reporting methods would also enable the synthesis and use of cost data.

Electronic supplementary material

The online version of this article (10.1186/s12913-019-4468-4) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.

Rapid, point-of-care diagnosis of tuberculosis with novel Truenat assay: Cost-effectiveness analysis for India's public sector

Background

Truenat is a novel molecular assay that rapidly detects tuberculosis (TB) and rifampicin-resistance. Due to the portability of its battery-powered testing platform, it may be valuable in peripheral healthcare settings in India.

Methods

Using a microsimulation model, we compared four TB diagnostic strategies for HIV-negative adults with presumptive TB: (1) sputum smear microscopy in designated microscopy centers (DMCs) (SSM); (2) Xpert MTB/RIF in DMCs (Xpert); (3) Truenat in DMCs (Truenat DMC); and (4) Truenat for point-of-care testing in primary healthcare facilities (Truenat POC). We projected life expectancy, costs, incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs), and 5-year budget impact of deploying Truenat POC in India’s public sector. We defined a strategy “cost-effective” if its ICER was <US$990/year-of-life saved (YLS). Model inputs included: TB prevalence, 15% (among those not previously treated for TB) and 27% (among those previously treated for TB); sensitivity for TB detection, 89% (Xpert) and 86% (Truenat); per test cost, $12.63 (Xpert) and $13.20 (Truenat); and linkage-to-care after diagnosis, 84% (DMC) and 95% (POC). We varied these parameters in sensitivity analyses.

Results

Compared to SSM, Truenat POC increased life expectancy by 0.39 years and was cost-effective (ICER $210/YLS). Compared to Xpert, Truenat POC increased life expectancy by 0.08 years due to improved linkage-to-care and was cost-effective (ICER $120/YLS). In sensitivity analysis, the cost-effectiveness of Truenat POC, relative to Xpert, depended on the diagnostic sensitivity of Truenat and linkage-to-care with Truenat. Deploying Truenat POC instead of Xpert increased 5-year expenditures by $270 million, due mostly to treatment costs. Limitations of our study include uncertainty in Truenat’s sensitivity for TB and not accounting for the “start-up” costs of implementing Truenat in the field.

Conclusions

Used at the point-of-care in India, Truenat for TB diagnosis should improve linkage-to-care, increase life expectancy, and be cost-effective compared with smear microscopy or Xpert.

Incorporating costing study results into district and service planning to enhance immunization programme performance: a Zambian case study

Donors, researchers and international agencies have made significant investments in collection of high-quality data on immunization costs, aiming to improve the efficiency and sustainability of services. However, improved quality and routine dissemination of costing information to local managers may not lead to enhanced programme performance. This study explored how district- and service-level managers can use costing information to enhance planning and management to increase immunization outputs and coverage. Data on the use of costing information in the planning and management of Zambia's immunization programme was obtained through individual and group semi-structured interviews with planners and managers at national, provincial and district levels. Document review revealed the organizational context within which managers operated. Qualitative results described managers' ability to use costing information to generate cost and efficiency indicators not provided by existing systems. These, in turn, would allow them to understand the relative cost of vaccines and other resources, increase awareness of resource use and management, benchmark against other facilities and districts, and modify strategies to improve performance. Managers indicated that costing information highlighted priorities for more efficient use of human resources, vaccines and outreach for immunization programming. Despite decentralization, there were limitations on managers' decision-making to improve programme efficiency in practice: major resource allocation decisions were made centrally and planning tools did not focus on vaccine costs. Unreliable budgets and disbursements also undermined managers' ability to use systems and information. Routine generation and use of immunization cost information may have limited impact on managing efficiency in many Zambian districts, but opportunities were evident for using existing capacity and systems to improve efficiency. Simpler approaches, such as improving reliability and use of routine immunization and staffing indicators, drawing on general insights from periodic costing studies, and focusing on maximizing coverage with available resources, may be more feasible in the short-term.

Cost-effectiveness of urine-based tuberculosis screening in hospitalised patients with HIV in Africa: a microsimulation modelling study

BACKGROUND

Testing urine improves the number of tuberculosis diagnoses made among patients in hospital with HIV. In conjunction with the two-country randomised Rapid Urine-based Screening for Tuberculosis to Reduce AIDS-related Mortality in Hospitalised Patients in Africa (STAMP) trial, we used a microsimulation model to estimate the effects on clinical outcomes and the cost-effectiveness of adding urine-based tuberculosis screening to sputum screening for hospitalised patients with HIV.

METHODS

We compared two tuberculosis screening strategies used irrespective of symptoms among hospitalised patients with HIV in Malawi and South Africa: a GeneXpert assay (Cepheid, Sunnyvale, CA, USA) for Mycobacterium tuberculosis and rifampicin resistance (Xpert) in sputum samples (standard of care) versus sputum Xpert combined with a lateral flow assay for M tuberculosis lipoarabinomannan in urine (Determine TB-LAM Ag test, Abbott, Waltham, MA, USA [formerly Alere]; TB-LAM) and concentrated urine Xpert (intervention). A cohort of simulated patients was modelled using selected characteristics of participants, tuberculosis diagnostic yields, and use of hospital resources in the STAMP trial. We calibrated 2-month model outputs to the STAMP trial results and projected clinical and economic outcomes at 2 years, 5 years, and over a lifetime. We judged the intervention to be cost-effective if the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was less than US$750/year of life saved (YLS) in Malawi and $940/YLS in South Africa. A modified intervention of adding only TB-LAM to the standard of care was also evaluated. We did a budget impact analysis of countrywide implementation of the intervention.

FINDINGS

The intervention increased life expectancy by 0·5-1·2 years and was cost-effective, with an ICER of $450/YLS in Malawi and $840/YLS in South Africa. The ICERs decreased over time. At lifetime horizon, the intervention remained cost-effective under nearly all modelled assumptions. The modified intervention was at least as cost-effective as the intervention (ICERs $420/YLS in Malawi and $810/YLS in South Africa). Over 5 years, the intervention would save around 51 000 years of life in Malawi and around 171 000 years of life in South Africa. Health-care expenditure for screened individuals was estimated to increase by $37 million (10·8%) and $261 million (2·8%), respectively.

INTERPRETATION

Urine-based tuberculosis screening of all hospitalised patients with HIV could increase life expectancy and be cost-effective in resource-limited settings. Urine TB-LAM is especially attractive because of high incremental diagnostic yield and low additional cost compared with sputum Xpert, making a compelling case for expanding its use to all hospitalised patients with HIV in areas with high HIV burden and endemic tuberculosis.

FUNDING

UK Medical Research Council, UK Department for International Development, Wellcome Trust, US National Institutes of Health, Royal College of Physicians, Massachusetts General Hospital.

Estimating the distribution of morbidity and mortality of childhood diarrhea, measles, and pneumonia by wealth group in low- and middle-income countries

BACKGROUND

Equitable access to vaccines has been suggested as a priority for low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). However, it is unclear whether providing equitable access is enough to ensure health equity. Furthermore, disaggregated data on health outcomes and benefits gained across population subgroups are often unavailable. This paper develops a model to estimate the distribution of childhood disease cases and deaths across socioeconomic groups, and the potential benefits of three vaccine programs in LMICs.

METHODS

For each country and for three diseases (diarrhea, measles, pneumonia), we estimated the distributions of cases and deaths that would occur across wealth quintiles in the absence of any immunization or treatment programs, using both the prevalence and relative risk of a set of risk and prognostic factors. Building on these baseline estimates, we examined what might be the impact of three vaccines (first dose of measles, pneumococcal conjugate, and rotavirus vaccines), under five scenarios based on different sets of quintile-specific immunization coverage and disease treatment utilization rates.

RESULTS

Due to higher prevalence of risk factors among the poor, disproportionately more disease cases and deaths would occur among the two lowest wealth quintiles for all three diseases when vaccines or treatment are unavailable. Country-specific context, including how the baseline risks, immunization coverage, and treatment utilization are currently distributed across quintiles, affects how different policies translate into changes in cases and deaths distribution.

CONCLUSIONS

Our study highlights several factors that would substantially contribute to the unequal distribution of childhood diseases, and finds that merely ensuring equal access to vaccines will not reduce the health outcomes gap across wealth quintiles. Such information can inform policies and planning of programs that aim to improve equitable delivery of healthcare services.

The cost structure of routine infant immunization services: a systematic analysis of six countries

Little information exists on the cost structure of routine infant immunization services in low- and middle-income settings. Using a unique dataset of routine infant immunization costs from six countries, we estimated how costs were distributed across budget categories and programmatic activities, and investigated how the cost structure of immunization sites varied by country and site characteristics. The EPIC study collected data on routine infant immunization costs from 319 sites in Benin, Ghana, Honduras, Moldova, Uganda, Zambia, using a standardized approach. For each country, we estimated the economic costs of infant immunization by administrative level, budget category, and programmatic activity from a programme perspective. We used regression models to describe how costs within each category were related to site operating characteristics and efficiency level. Site-level costs (incl. vaccines) represented 77-93% of national routine infant immunization costs. Labour and vaccine costs comprised 14-69% and 13-69% of site-level cost, respectively. The majority of site-level resources were devoted to service provision (facility-based or outreach), comprising 48-78% of site-level costs across the six countries. Based on the regression analyses, sites with the highest service volume had a greater proportion of costs devoted to vaccines, with vaccine costs per dose relatively unaffected by service volume but non-vaccine costs substantially lower with higher service volume. Across all countries, more efficient sites (compared with sites with similar characteristics) had a lower cost share devoted to labour. The cost structure of immunization services varied substantially between countries and across sites within each country, and was related to site characteristics. The substantial variation observed in this sample suggests differences in operating model for otherwise similar sites, and further understanding of these differences could reveal approaches to improve efficiency and performance of immunization sites.

Economics in "Global Health 2035": a sensitivity analysis of the value of a life year estimates

Background

In “Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation,” The Lancet Commission on Investing in Health (CIH) adds the value of increased life expectancy to the value of growth in gross domestic product (GDP) when assessing national well–being. To value changes in life expectancy, the CIH relies on several strong assumptions to bridge gaps in the empirical research. It finds that the value of a life year (VLY) averages 2.3 times GDP per capita for low– and middle–income countries (LMICs) assuming the changes in life expectancy they experienced from 2000 to 2011 are permanent.

Methods

The CIH VLY estimate is based on a specific shift in population life expectancy and includes a 50 percent reduction for children ages 0 through 4. We investigate the sensitivity of this estimate to the underlying assumptions, including the effects of income, age, and life expectancy, and the sequencing of the calculations.

Findings

We find that reasonable alternative assumptions regarding the effects of income, age, and life expectancy may reduce the VLY estimates to 0.2 to 2.1 times GDP per capita for LMICs. Removing the reduction for young children increases the VLY, while reversing the sequencing of the calculations reduces the VLY.

Conclusion

Because the VLY is sensitive to the underlying assumptions, analysts interested in applying this approach elsewhere must tailor the estimates to the impacts of the intervention and the characteristics of the affected population. Analysts should test the sensitivity of their conclusions to reasonable alternative assumptions. More work is needed to investigate options for improving the approach.

Simulation of Growth Trajectories of Childhood Obesity into Adulthood

BACKGROUND

Although the current obesity epidemic has been well documented in children and adults, less is known about long-term risks of adult obesity for a given child at his or her present age and weight. We developed a simulation model to estimate the risk of adult obesity at the age of 35 years for the current population of children in the United States.

METHODS

We pooled height and weight data from five nationally representative longitudinal studies totaling 176,720 observations from 41,567 children and adults. We simulated growth trajectories across the life course and adjusted for secular trends. We created 1000 virtual populations of 1 million children through the age of 19 years that were representative of the 2016 population of the United States and projected their trajectories in height and weight up to the age of 35 years. Severe obesity was defined as a body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of 35 or higher in adults and 120% or more of the 95th percentile in children.

RESULTS

Given the current level of childhood obesity, the models predicted that a majority of today's children (57.3%; 95% uncertainly interval [UI], 55.2 to 60.0) will be obese at the age of 35 years, and roughly half of the projected prevalence will occur during childhood. Our simulations indicated that the relative risk of adult obesity increased with age and BMI, from 1.17 (95% UI, 1.09 to 1.29) for overweight 2-year-olds to 3.10 (95% UI, 2.43 to 3.65) for 19-year-olds with severe obesity. For children with severe obesity, the chance they will no longer be obese at the age of 35 years fell from 21.0% (95% UI, 7.3 to 47.3) at the age of 2 years to 6.1% (95% UI, 2.1 to 9.9) at the age of 19 years.

CONCLUSIONS

On the basis of our simulation models, childhood obesity and overweight will continue to be a major health problem in the United States. Early development of obesity predicted obesity in adulthood, especially for children who were severely obese. (Funded by the JPB Foundation and others.).

Cost-Effectiveness of a Clinical Childhood Obesity Intervention

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the cost-effectiveness and population impact of the national implementation of the Study of Technology to Accelerate Research (STAR) intervention for childhood obesity.

METHODS

In the STAR cluster-randomized trial, 6- to 12-year-old children with obesity seen at pediatric practices with electronic health record (EHR)-based decision support for primary care providers and self-guided behavior-change support for parents had significantly smaller increases in BMI than children who received usual care. We used a microsimulation model of a national implementation of STAR from 2015 to 2025 among all pediatric primary care providers in the United States with fully functional EHRs to estimate cost, impact on obesity prevalence, and cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

The expected population reach of a 10-year national implementation is ∼2 million children, with intervention costs of $119 per child and $237 per BMI unit reduced. At 10 years, assuming maintenance of effect, the intervention is expected to avert 43 000 cases and 226 000 life-years with obesity at a net cost of $4085 per case and $774 per life-year with obesity averted. Limiting implementation to large practices and using higher estimates of EHR adoption improved both cost-effectiveness and reach, whereas decreasing the maintenance of the intervention's effect worsened the former.

CONCLUSIONS

A childhood obesity intervention with electronic decision support for clinicians and self-guided behavior-change support for parents may be more cost-effective than previous clinical interventions. Effective and efficient interventions that target children with obesity are necessary and could work in synergy with population-level prevention strategies to accelerate progress in reducing obesity prevalence.

Using cost-effectiveness analysis to prioritize policy and programmatic approaches to physical activity promotion and obesity prevention in childhood

Participation in recommended levels of physical activity promotes a healthy body weight and reduced chronic disease risk. To inform investment in prevention initiatives, we simulate the national implementation, impact on physical activity and childhood obesity and associated cost-effectiveness (versus the status quo) of six recommended strategies that can be applied throughout childhood to increase physical activity in US school, afterschool and childcare settings. In 2016, the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study (CHOICES) systematic review process identified six interventions for study. A microsimulation model estimated intervention outcomes 2015-2025 including changes in mean MET-hours/day, intervention reach and cost per person, cost per MET-hour change, ten-year net costs to society and cases of childhood obesity prevented. First year reach of the interventions ranged from 90,000 youth attending a Healthy Afterschool Program to 31.3 million youth reached by Active School Day policies. Mean MET-hour/day/person increases ranged from 0.05 MET-hour/day/person for Active PE and Healthy Afterschool to 1.29 MET-hour/day/person for the implementation of New Afterschool Programs. Cost per MET-hour change ranged from cost saving to $3.14. Approximately 2500 to 110,000 cases of children with obesity could be prevented depending on the intervention implemented. All of the six interventions are estimated to increase physical activity levels among children and adolescents in the US population and prevent cases of childhood obesity. Results do not include other impacts of increased physical activity, including cognitive and behavioral effects. Decision-makers can use these methods to inform prioritization of physical activity promotion and obesity prevention on policy agendas.

Three Interventions That Reduce Childhood Obesity Are Projected To Save More Than They Cost To Implement

Policy makers seeking to reduce childhood obesity must prioritize investment in treatment and primary prevention. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of seven interventions high on the obesity policy agenda: a sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax; elimination of the tax subsidy for advertising unhealthy food to children; restaurant menu calorie labeling; nutrition standards for school meals; nutrition standards for all other food and beverages sold in schools; improved early care and education; and increased access to adolescent bariatric surgery. We used systematic reviews and a microsimulation model of national implementation of the interventions over the period 2015-25 to estimate their impact on obesity prevalence and their cost-effectiveness for reducing the body mass index of individuals. In our model, three of the seven interventions--excise tax, elimination of the tax deduction, and nutrition standards for food and beverages sold in schools outside of meals--saved more in health care costs than they cost to implement. Each of the three interventions prevented 129,000-576,000 cases of childhood obesity in 2025. Adolescent bariatric surgery had a negligible impact on obesity prevalence. Our results highlight the importance of primary prevention for policy makers aiming to reduce childhood obesity.

Resources Required for Cervical Cancer Prevention in Low- and Middle-Income Countries

BACKGROUND

Cervical cancer is the fourth leading cause of cancer death in women, with 85% of cases and deaths occurring in developing countries. While organized screening programs have reduced cervical cancer incidence in high-income countries through detection and treatment of precancerous lesions, the implementation of organized screening has not been effective in low-resource settings due to lack of infrastructure and limited budgets. Our objective was to estimate the cost of comprehensive primary and secondary cervical cancer prevention in low- and middle-income countries.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We performed a modeling analysis to estimate 1) for girls aged 10 years, the cost of 2-dose human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccination; and 2) for women aged 30 to 49 years, the cost of cervical cancer screening (with visual inspection with acetic acid (VIA), HPV testing, or cytology) and preventive treatment in 102 low- and middle-income countries from 2015 to 2024. We used an Excel-based costing and service utilization model to estimate financial costs (2013 US$) based on prevalence of HPV, prevalence of precancerous lesions, and screening test performance. Where epidemiologic data were unavailable, we extrapolated from settings with data using an individual-based microsimulation model of cervical carcinogenesis (calibrated to 20 settings) and multivariate regression. Total HPV vaccination costs ranged from US$8.6 billion to US$24.2 billion for all scenarios considered (immediate, 5-year, or 10-year roll-out; price per dose US$4.55-US$70 by country income level). The total cost of screening and preventive treatment ranged from US$5.1 billion (10-year roll-out, screening once at age 35 years) to US$42.3 billion (immediate roll-out, high intensity screening). Limitations of this analysis include the assumption of standardized protocols by country income level that did not account for the potential presence of multiple screening modalities or management strategies within a country, and extrapolation of cost and epidemiologic data to settings where data were limited.

CONCLUSIONS

The estimated cost of comprehensive cervical cancer prevention with 2-dose HPV vaccination of 10-year-old girls and screening of women aged 30 to 49 years ranges from US$13.7 billion to US$66.5 billion, depending on speed of roll-out, vaccine price per dose, and screening test and frequency. Findings demonstrate the substantial impact of vaccine price in middle-income countries that are not eligible for assistance from Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance. Replacing routine cytology with HPV-based screening may reduce total costs. Data on the health impact and relative cost-effectiveness of strategies are needed to determine the best value for public health dollars.

The Anticipated Clinical and Economic Effects of 90-90-90 in South Africa

BACKGROUND

The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) 90-90-90 global treatment target aims to achieve 73% virologic suppression among HIV-infected persons worldwide by 2020.

OBJECTIVE

To estimate the clinical and economic value of reaching this ambitious goal in South Africa, by using a microsimulation model of HIV detection, disease, and treatment.

DESIGN

Modeling of the "current pace" strategy, which simulates existing scale-up efforts and gradual increases in overall virologic suppression from 24% to 36% in 5 years, and the UNAIDS target strategy, which simulates 73% virologic suppression in 5 years.

DATA SOURCES

Published estimates and South African survey data on HIV transmission rates (0.16 to 9.03 per 100 person-years), HIV-specific age-stratified fertility rates (1.0 to 9.1 per 100 person-years), and costs of care ($11 to $31 per month for antiretroviral therapy and $20 to $157 per month for routine care).

TARGET POPULATION

South African HIV-infected population, including incident infections over the next 10 years.

PERSPECTIVE

Modified societal perspective, excluding time and productivity costs.

TIME HORIZON

5 and 10 years.

INTERVENTION

Aggressive HIV case detection, efficient linkage to care, rapid treatment scale-up, and adherence and retention interventions toward the UNAIDS target strategy.

OUTCOME MEASURES

HIV transmissions, deaths, years of life saved, maternal orphans, costs (2014 U.S. dollars), and cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS OF BASE-CASE ANALYSIS

Compared with the current pace strategy, over 5 years the UNAIDS target strategy would avert 873 000 HIV transmissions, 1 174 000 deaths, and 726 000 maternal orphans while saving 3 002 000 life-years; over 10 years, it would avert 2 051 000 HIV transmissions, 2 478 000 deaths, and 1 689 000 maternal orphans while saving 13 340 000 life-years. The additional budget required for the UNAIDS target strategy would be $7.965 billion over 5 years and $15.979 billion over 10 years, yielding an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $2720 and $1260 per year of life saved, respectively.

RESULTS OF SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS

Outcomes generally varied less than 20% from base-case outcomes when key input parameters were varied within plausible ranges.

LIMITATION

Several pathways may lead to 73% overall virologic suppression; these were examined in sensitivity analyses.

CONCLUSION

Reaching the 90-90-90 HIV suppression target would be costly but very effective and cost-effective in South Africa. Global health policymakers should mobilize the political and economic support to realize this target.

PRIMARY FUNDING SOURCE

National Institutes of Health and the Steve and Deborah Gorlin MGH Research Scholars Award.

State-level estimates of childhood obesity prevalence in the United States corrected for report bias

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES

State-specific obesity prevalence data are critical to public health efforts to address the childhood obesity epidemic. However, few states administer objectively measured body mass index (BMI) surveillance programs. This study reports state-specific childhood obesity prevalence by age and sex correcting for parent-reported child height and weight bias.

SUBJECTS/METHODS

As part of the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study (CHOICES), we developed childhood obesity prevalence estimates for states for the period 2005-2010 using data from the 2010 US Census and American Community Survey (ACS), 2003-2004 and 2007-2008 National Survey of Children's Health (NSCH) (n=133 213), and 2005-2010 National Health and Nutrition Examination Surveys (NHANES) (n=9377; ages 2-17). Measured height and weight data from NHANES were used to correct parent-report bias in NSCH using a non-parametric statistical matching algorithm. Model estimates were validated against surveillance data from five states (AR, FL, MA, PA and TN) that conduct censuses of children across a range of grades.

RESULTS

Parent-reported height and weight resulted in the largest overestimation of childhood obesity in males ages 2-5 years (NSCH: 42.36% vs NHANES: 11.44%). The CHOICES model estimates for this group (12.81%) and for all age and sex categories were not statistically different from NHANES. Our modeled obesity prevalence aligned closely with measured data from five validation states, with a 0.64 percentage point mean difference (range: 0.23-1.39) and a high correlation coefficient (r=0.96, P=0.009). Estimated state-specific childhood obesity prevalence ranged from 11.0 to 20.4%.

CONCLUSION

Uncorrected estimates of childhood obesity prevalence from NSCH vary widely from measured national data, from a 278% overestimate among males aged 2-5 years to a 44% underestimate among females aged 14-17 years. This study demonstrates the validity of the CHOICES matching methods to correct the bias of parent-reported BMI data and highlights the need for public release of more recent data from the 2011 to 2012 NSCH.

Redrawing the US Obesity Landscape: Bias-Corrected Estimates of State-Specific Adult Obesity Prevalence

BACKGROUND

State-level estimates from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) underestimate the obesity epidemic because they use self-reported height and weight. We describe a novel bias-correction method and produce corrected state-level estimates of obesity and severe obesity.

METHODS

Using non-parametric statistical matching, we adjusted self-reported data from the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) 2013 (n = 386,795) using measured data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) (n = 16,924). We validated our national estimates against NHANES and estimated bias-corrected state-specific prevalence of obesity (BMI≥30) and severe obesity (BMI≥35). We compared these results with previous adjustment methods.

RESULTS

Compared to NHANES, self-reported BRFSS data underestimated national prevalence of obesity by 16% (28.67% vs 34.01%), and severe obesity by 23% (11.03% vs 14.26%). Our method was not significantly different from NHANES for obesity or severe obesity, while previous methods underestimated both. Only four states had a corrected obesity prevalence below 30%, with four exceeding 40%-in contrast, most states were below 30% in CDC maps.

CONCLUSIONS

Twelve million adults with obesity (including 6.7 million with severe obesity) were misclassified by CDC state-level estimates. Previous bias-correction methods also resulted in underestimates. Accurate state-level estimates are necessary to plan for resources to address the obesity epidemic.

Potential Clinical and Economic Value of Long-Acting Preexposure Prophylaxis for South African Women at High-Risk for HIV Infection

Background. For young South African women at risk for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection, preexposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is one of the few effective prevention options available. Long-acting injectable PrEP, which is in development, may be associated with greater adherence, compared with that for existing standard oral PrEP formulations, but its likely clinical benefits and additional costs are unknown.

Methods. Using a computer simulation, we compared the following 3 PrEP strategies: no PrEP, standard PrEP (effectiveness, 62%; cost per patient, $150/year), and long-acting PrEP (effectiveness, 75%; cost per patient, $220/year) in South African women at high risk for HIV infection (incidence of HIV infection, 5%/year). We examined the sensitivity of the strategies to changes in key input parameters among several outcome measures, including deaths averted and program cost over a 5-year period; lifetime HIV infection risk, survival rate, and program cost and cost-effectiveness; and budget impact.

Results. Compared with no PrEP, standard PrEP and long-acting PrEP cost $580 and $870 more per woman, respectively, and averted 15 and 16 deaths per 1000 women at high risk for infection, respectively, over 5 years. Measured on a lifetime basis, both standard PrEP and long-acting PrEP were cost saving, compared with no PrEP. Compared with standard PrEP, long-acting PrEP was very cost-effective ($150/life-year saved) except under the most pessimistic assumptions. Over 5 years, long-acting PrEP cost $1.6 billion when provided to 50% of eligible women.

Conclusions. Currently available standard PrEP is a cost-saving intervention whose delivery should be expanded and optimized. Long-acting PrEP will likely be a very cost-effective improvement over standard PrEP but may require novel financing mechanisms that bring short-term fiscal planning efforts into closer alignment with longer-term societal objectives.

BMI and Healthcare Cost Impact of Eliminating Tax Subsidy for Advertising Unhealthy Food to Youth

INTRODUCTION

Food and beverage TV advertising contributes to childhood obesity. The current tax treatment of advertising as an ordinary business expense in the U.S. subsidizes marketing of nutritionally poor foods and beverages to children. This study models the effect of a national intervention that eliminates the tax subsidy of advertising nutritionally poor foods and beverages on TV to children aged 2-19 years.

METHODS

We adapted and modified the Assessing Cost Effectiveness framework and methods to create the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study model to simulate the impact of the intervention over the 2015-2025 period for the U.S. population, including short-term effects on BMI and 10-year healthcare expenditures. We simulated uncertainty intervals (UIs) using probabilistic sensitivity analysis and discounted outcomes at 3% annually. Data were analyzed in 2014.

RESULTS

We estimated the intervention would reduce an aggregate 2.13 million (95% UI=0.83 million, 3.52 million) BMI units in the population and would cost $1.16 per BMI unit reduced (95% UI=$0.51, $2.63). From 2015 to 2025, the intervention would result in $352 million (95% UI=$138 million, $581 million) in healthcare cost savings and gain 4,538 (95% UI=1,752, 7,489) quality-adjusted life-years.

CONCLUSIONS

Eliminating the tax subsidy of TV advertising costs for nutritionally poor foods and beverages advertised to children and adolescents would likely be a cost-saving strategy to reduce childhood obesity and related healthcare expenditures.

Modeling the Cost Effectiveness of Child Care Policy Changes in the U.S

INTRODUCTION

Child care facilities influence diet and physical activity, making them ideal obesity prevention settings. The purpose of this study is to quantify the health and economic impacts of a multi-component regulatory obesity policy intervention in licensed U.S. child care facilities.

METHODS

Two-year costs and BMI changes resulting from changes in beverage, physical activity, and screen time regulations affecting a cohort of up to 6.5 million preschool-aged children attending child care facilities were estimated in 2014 using published data. A Markov cohort model simulated the intervention's impact on changes in the U.S. population from 2015 to 2025, including short-term BMI effects and 10-year healthcare expenditures. Future outcomes were discounted at 3% annually. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses simulated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) around outcomes.

RESULTS

Regulatory changes would lead children to watch less TV, get more minutes of moderate and vigorous physical activity, and consume fewer sugar-sweetened beverages. Within the 6.5 million eligible population, national implementation could reach 3.69 million children, cost $4.82 million in the first year, and result in 0.0186 fewer BMI units (95% UI=0.00592 kg/m(2), 0.0434 kg/m(2)) per eligible child at a cost of $57.80 per BMI unit avoided. Over 10 years, these effects would result in net healthcare cost savings of $51.6 (95% UI=$14.2, $134) million. The intervention is 94.7% likely to be cost saving by 2025.

CONCLUSIONS

Changing child care regulations could have a small but meaningful impact on short-term BMI at low cost. If effects are maintained for 10 years, obesity-related healthcare cost savings are likely.

Cost Effectiveness of a Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Excise Tax in the U.S

INTRODUCTION

Reducing sugar-sweetened beverage consumption through taxation is a promising public health response to the obesity epidemic in the U.S. This study quantifies the expected health and economic benefits of a national sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax of $0.01/ounce over 10 years.

METHODS

A cohort model was used to simulate the impact of the tax on BMI. Assuming ongoing implementation and effect maintenance, quality-adjusted life-years gained and disability-adjusted life-years and healthcare costs averted were estimated over the 2015-2025 period for the 2015 U.S.

POPULATION

Costs and health gains were discounted at 3% annually. Data were analyzed in 2014.

RESULTS

Implementing the tax nationally would cost $51 million in the first year. The tax would reduce sugar-sweetened beverage consumption by 20% and mean BMI by 0.16 (95% uncertainty interval [UI]=0.06, 0.37) units among youth and 0.08 (95% UI=0.03, 0.20) units among adults in the second year for a cost of $3.16 (95% UI=$1.24, $8.14) per BMI unit reduced. From 2015 to 2025, the policy would avert 101,000 disability-adjusted life-years (95% UI=34,800, 249,000); gain 871,000 quality-adjusted life-years (95% UI=342,000, 2,030,000); and result in $23.6 billion (95% UI=$9.33 billion, $54.9 billion) in healthcare cost savings. The tax would generate $12.5 billion in annual revenue (95% UI=$8.92, billion, $14.1 billion).

CONCLUSIONS

The proposed tax could substantially reduce BMI and healthcare expenditures and increase healthy life expectancy. Concerns regarding the potentially regressive tax may be addressed by reduced obesity disparities and progressive earmarking of tax revenue for health promotion.

Cost Effectiveness of Childhood Obesity Interventions: Evidence and Methods for CHOICES

INTRODUCTION

The childhood obesity epidemic continues in the U.S., and fiscal crises are leading policymakers to ask not only whether an intervention works but also whether it offers value for money. However, cost-effectiveness analyses have been limited. This paper discusses methods and outcomes of four childhood obesity interventions: (1) sugar-sweetened beverage excise tax (SSB); (2) eliminating tax subsidy of TV advertising to children (TV AD); (3) early care and education policy change (ECE); and (4) active physical education (Active PE).

METHODS

Cost-effectiveness models of nationwide implementation of interventions were estimated for a simulated cohort representative of the 2015 U.S. population over 10 years (2015-2025). A societal perspective was used; future outcomes were discounted at 3%. Data were analyzed in 2014. Effectiveness, implementation, and equity issues were reviewed.

RESULTS

Population reach varied widely, and cost per BMI change ranged from $1.16 (TV AD) to $401 (Active PE). At 10 years, assuming maintenance of the intervention effect, three interventions would save net costs, with SSB and TV AD saving $55 and $38 for every dollar spent. The SSB intervention would avert disability-adjusted life years, and both SSB and TV AD would increase quality-adjusted life years. Both SSB ($12.5 billion) and TV AD ($80 million) would produce yearly tax revenue.

CONCLUSIONS

The cost effectiveness of these preventive interventions is greater than that seen for published clinical interventions to treat obesity. Cost-effectiveness evaluations of childhood obesity interventions can provide decision makers with information demonstrating best value for the money.

Patient- and population-level health consequences of discontinuing antiretroviral therapy in settings with inadequate HIV treatment availability

Background

In resource-limited settings, HIV budgets are flattening or decreasing. A policy of discontinuing antiretroviral therapy (ART) after HIV treatment failure was modeled to highlight trade-offs among competing policy goals of optimizing individual and population health outcomes.

Methods

In settings with two available ART regimens, we assessed two strategies: (1) continue ART after second-line failure (Status Quo) and (2) discontinue ART after second-line failure (Alternative). A computer model simulated outcomes for a single cohort of newly detected, HIV-infected individuals. Projections were fed into a population-level model allowing multiple cohorts to compete for ART with constraints on treatment capacity. In the Alternative strategy, discontinuation of second-line ART occurred upon detection of antiretroviral failure, specified by WHO guidelines. Those discontinuing failed ART experienced an increased risk of AIDS-related mortality compared to those continuing ART.

Results

At the population level, the Alternative strategy increased the mean number initiating ART annually by 1,100 individuals (+18.7%) to 6,980 compared to the Status Quo. More individuals initiating ART under the Alternative strategy increased total life-years by 15,000 (+2.8%) to 555,000, compared to the Status Quo. Although more individuals received treatment under the Alternative strategy, life expectancy for those treated decreased by 0.7 years (−8.0%) to 8.1 years compared to the Status Quo. In a cohort of treated patients only, 600 more individuals (+27.1%) died by 5 years under the Alternative strategy compared to the Status Quo. Results were sensitive to the timing of detection of ART failure, number of ART regimens, and treatment capacity. Although we believe the results robust in the short-term, this analysis reflects settings where HIV case detection occurs late in the disease course and treatment capacity and the incidence of newly detected patients are stable.

Conclusions

In settings with inadequate HIV treatment availability, trade-offs emerge between maximizing outcomes for individual patients already on treatment and ensuring access to treatment for all people who may benefit. While individuals may derive some benefit from ART even after virologic failure, the aggregate public health benefit is maximized by providing effective therapy to the greatest number of people. These trade-offs should be explicit and transparent in antiretroviral policy decisions.

Assessing health and economic outcomes of interventions to reduce pregnancy-related mortality in Nigeria

BACKGROUND

Women in Nigeria face some of the highest maternal mortality risks in the world. We explore the benefits and cost-effectiveness of individual and integrated packages of interventions to prevent pregnancy-related deaths.

METHODS

We adapt a previously validated maternal mortality model to Nigeria. Model outcomes included clinical events, population measures, costs, and cost-effectiveness ratios. Separate models were adapted to Southwest and Northeast zones using survey-based data. Strategies consisted of improving coverage of effective interventions, and could include improved logistics.

RESULTS

Increasing family planning was the most effective individual intervention to reduce pregnancy-related mortality, was cost saving in the Southwest zone and cost-effective elsewhere, and prevented nearly 1 in 5 abortion-related deaths. However, with a singular focus on family planning and safe abortion, mortality reduction would plateau below MDG 5. Strategies that could prevent 4 out of 5 maternal deaths included an integrated and stepwise approach that includes increased skilled deliveries, facility births, access to antenatal/postpartum care, improved recognition of referral need, transport, and availability quality of EmOC in addition to family planning and safe abortion. The economic benefits of these strategies ranged from being cost-saving to having incremental cost-effectiveness ratios less than $500 per YLS, well below Nigeria's per capita GDP.

CONCLUSIONS

Early intensive efforts to improve family planning and control of fertility choices, accompanied by a stepwise effort to scale-up capacity for integrated maternal health services over several years, will save lives and provide equal or greater value than many public health interventions we consider among the most cost-effective (e.g., childhood immunization).

A rapid assessment of the availability and use of obstetric care in Nigerian healthcare facilities

Background

As part of efforts to reduce maternal deaths in Nigeria, pregnant women are being encouraged to give birth in healthcare facilities. However, little is known about whether or not available healthcare facilities can cope with an increasing demand for obstetric care. We thus carried out this survey as a rapid and tactical assessment of facility quality. We visited 121 healthcare facilities, and used the opportunity to interview over 700 women seeking care at these facilities.

Findings

Most of the primary healthcare facilities we visited were unable to provide all basic Emergency Obstetric Care (bEmOC) services. In general, they lack clinical staff needed to dispense maternal and neonatal care services, ambulances and uninterrupted electricity supply whenever there were obstetric emergencies. Secondary healthcare facilities fared better, but, like their primary counterparts, lack neonatal care infrastructure. Among patients, most lived within 30 minutes of the visited facilities and still reported some difficulty getting there. Of those who had had two or more childbirths, the conditional probability of a delivery occurring in a healthcare facility was 0.91 if the previous delivery occurred in a healthcare facility, and 0.24 if it occurred at home. The crude risk of an adverse neonatal outcome did not significantly vary by delivery site or birth attendant, and the occurrence of such an outcome during an in-facility delivery may influence the mother to have her next delivery outside. Such an outcome during a home delivery may not prompt a subsequent in-facility delivery.

Conclusions

In conclusion, reducing maternal deaths in Nigeria will require attention to both increasing the number of facilities with high-quality EmOC capability and also assuring Nigerian women have access to these facilities regardless of where they live.

Histologic examinations of arthroplasty specimens are not cost-effective: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Many hospitals require all operative specimens be sent to pathologists for routine examination. Although previous studies indicate this practice increases medical cost, it remains unclear whether it alters patient management and whether it is cost-effective.

QUESTIONS/PURPOSES

We therefore (1) determined the rate of discordance between clinical and histologic examinations of routine operative specimens during elective primary arthroplasties, (2) determined the cost of routine histologic screening, and (3) estimated its cost-effectiveness in terms of cost per quality-adjusted life year gained, as compared with gross examination or no examination.

METHODS

We retrospectively reviewed medical records of 1247 patients who underwent 1363 routine elective primary total joint arthroplasties between January 18, 2006 and March 15, 2010. We compared preoperative, postoperative, and histologic diagnoses for each patient and categorized them into three classes: concordant (clinical and histologic diagnoses agreed), discrepant (diagnoses differed but with no resultant change in treatment), and discordant (diagnoses differed with resultant change in treatment). Medicare reimbursements were determined through the pathology department's administrative office.

RESULTS

In 1363 cases, 1335 (97.9%) clinical and histologic diagnoses were concordant, 28 (2.1%) were discrepant, and none were discordant. Total reimbursement for routine pathological examination was $139,532, or $102.37 per specimen. The average cost to identify each discrepant case was $4983.29. Routine histologic examination did not alter patient management, and there was no direct gain in quality-adjusted life years.

CONCLUSIONS

Our observations show routine histologic examinations of routine operative specimens during elective primary arthroplasties increase medical cost but rarely alter patient management and are not cost-effective.

LEVEL OF EVIDENCE

Level I, economic and decision analyses. See Guidelines for Authors for a complete description of levels of evidence.

The economic impact of chronic fatigue syndrome in Georgia: direct and indirect costs

BACKGROUND

Chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) is a debilitating chronic illness affecting at least 4 million people in the United States. Understanding its cost improves decisions regarding resource allocation that may be directed towards treatment and cure, and guides the evaluation of clinical and community interventions designed to reduce the burden of disease.

METHODS

This research estimated direct and indirect costs of CFS and the impact on educational attainment using a population-based, case-control study between September 2004 and July 2005, Georgia, USA. Participants completed a clinical evaluation to confirm CFS, identify other illnesses, and report on socioeconomic factors. We estimated the effect of CFS on direct medical costs (inpatient hospitalizations, provider visits, prescription medication spending, other medical supplies and services) and loss in productivity (employment and earnings) with a stratified sample (n = 500) from metropolitan, urban, and rural Georgia. We adjusted medical costs and earnings for confounders (age, sex, race/ethnicity, education, and geographic strata) using econometric models and weighted estimates to reflect response-rate adjusted sampling rates.

RESULTS

Individuals with CFS had mean annual direct medical costs of $5,683. After adjusting for confounding factors, CFS accounted for $3,286 of these costs (p < 0.01), which were driven by increased provider visits and prescription medication use. Nearly one-quarter of these expenses were paid directly out-of pocket by those with CFS. Individuals with CFS reported mean annual household income of $23,076. After adjustment, CFS accounted for $8,554 annually in lost household earnings (p < 0.01). Lower educational attainment accounted for 19% of the reduction in earnings associated with CFS.

CONCLUSIONS

Study results indicate that chronic fatigue syndrome may lead to substantial increases in healthcare costs and decreases in individual earnings. Studies have estimated up to 2.5% of non-elderly adults may suffer from CFS. In Georgia, a state with roughly 5.5 million people age 18-59, illness could account for $452 million in total healthcare expenditures and $1.2 billion of lost productivity.

Prevention of retained surgical sponges: a decision-analytic model predicting relative cost-effectiveness

BACKGROUND

New technologies are available to reduce or prevent retained surgical sponges (RSS), but their relative cost effectiveness are unknown. We developed an empirically calibrated decision-analytic model comparing standard counting against alternative strategies: universal or selective x-ray, bar-coded sponges (BCS), and radiofrequency-tagged (RF) sponges.

METHODS

Key model parameters were obtained from field observations during a randomized-controlled BCS trial (n = 298), an observational study of RSS (n = 191,168), and clinical experience with BCS (n approximately 60,000). Because no comparable data exist for RF, we modeled its performance under 2 alternative assumptions. Only incremental sponge-tracking costs, excluding those common to all strategies, were considered. Main outcomes were RSS incidence and cost-effectiveness ratios for each strategy, from the institutional decision maker's perspective.

RESULTS

Standard counting detects 82% of RSS. Bar coding prevents > or =97.5% for an additional $95,000 per RSS averted. If RF were as effective as bar coding, it would cost $720,000 per additional RSS averted (versus standard counting). Universal and selective x-rays for high-risk operations are more costly, but less effective than BCS-$1.1 to 1.4 million per RSS event prevented. In sensitivity analyses, results were robust over the plausible range of effectiveness assumptions, but sensitive to cost.

CONCLUSION

Using currently available data, this analysis provides a useful model for comparing the relative cost effectiveness of existing sponge-tracking strategies. Selecting the best method for an institution depends on its priorities: ease of use, cost reduction, or ensuring RSS are truly "never events." Given medical and liability costs of >$200,000 per incident, novel technologies can substantially reduce the incidence of RSS at an acceptable cost.

Cost-effectiveness of treating multidrug-resistant tuberculosis

BACKGROUND

Despite the existence of effective drug treatments, tuberculosis (TB) causes 2 million deaths annually worldwide. Effective treatment is complicated by multidrug-resistant TB (MDR TB) strains that respond only to second-line drugs. We projected the health benefits and cost-effectiveness of using drug susceptibility testing and second-line drugs in a lower-middle-income setting with high levels of MDR TB.

METHODS AND FINDINGS

We developed a dynamic state-transition model of TB. In a base case analysis, the model was calibrated to approximate the TB epidemic in Peru, a setting with a smear-positive TB incidence of 120 per 100,000 and 4.5% MDR TB among prevalent cases. Secondary analyses considered other settings. The following strategies were evaluated: first-line drugs administered under directly observed therapy (DOTS), locally standardized second-line drugs for previously treated cases (STR1), locally standardized second-line drugs for previously treated cases with test-confirmed MDR TB (STR2), comprehensive drug susceptibility testing and individualized treatment for previously treated cases (ITR1), and comprehensive drug susceptibility testing and individualized treatment for all cases (ITR2). Outcomes were costs per TB death averted and costs per quality-adjusted life year (QALY) gained. We found that strategies incorporating the use of second-line drug regimens following first-line treatment failure were highly cost-effective compared to strategies using first-line drugs only. In our base case, standardized second-line treatment for confirmed MDR TB cases (STR2) had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 720 dollars per QALY (8,700 dollars per averted death) compared to DOTS. Individualized second-line drug treatment for MDR TB following first-line failure (ITR1) provided more benefit at an incremental cost of 990 dollars per QALY (12,000 dollars per averted death) compared to STR2. A more aggressive version of the individualized treatment strategy (ITR2), in which both new and previously treated cases are tested for MDR TB, had an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 11,000 dollars per QALY (160,000 dollars per averted death) compared to ITR1. The STR2 and ITR1 strategies remained cost-effective under a wide range of alternative assumptions about treatment costs, effectiveness, MDR TB prevalence, and transmission.

CONCLUSIONS

Treatment of MDR TB using second-line drugs is highly cost-effective in Peru. In other settings, the attractiveness of strategies using second-line drugs will depend on TB incidence, MDR burden, and the available budget, but simulation results suggest that individualized regimens would be cost-effective in a wide range of situations.

Estimating the Impact of Establishing Family Housing on the Annual Risk of HIV Infection in South African Mining Communities

OBJECTIVE

The objective of this study was to determine the HIV-related epidemiologic impact of establishing family-style housing in mining communities in South Africa.

METHODS

Modeling sex acts as independent Bernoulli trials, the estimated impact of converting to family housing arrangements on the annual risk of HIV infection is calculated and the differential effects on migrants and their partners is explored.

RESULTS

Family housing could reduce HIV transmission among migrants and their partners in South Africa. Given baseline estimates, the predicted net reduction in the annual risk of HIV infection with family housing is 0.0254 and 0.0305 for short- and long-stay couples respectively. A reduction in the annual risk of HIV infection under family housing depends on the proportion of HIV negative concordance among couples. HIV-negative concordance among couples above 22% provides reductions in the annual risk of HIV infection under family housing.

CONCLUSIONS

The results indicate that family housing could decrease HIV transmission among HIV-negative concordant couples, indicating that this policy alternative should be examined closely to assess its viability and use as a prevention method.