A Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Excise Tax in California: Projected Benefits for Population Obesity and Health Equity

INTRODUCTION

Amid the successes of local sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) taxes, interest in state-wide policies has grown. This study evaluated the cost effectiveness of a hypothetical 2-cent-per-ounce excise tax in California and its implications for population health and health equity.

METHODS

Using the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study microsimulation model, tax impacts on health, health equity, and cost effectiveness over 10 years in California were projected, both overall and stratified by race/ethnicity and income. Expanding on previous models, differences in the effect of intake of SSBs on weight by BMI category were incorporated. Costing was performed in 2020, and analyses were conducted in 2021-2022.

RESULTS

The tax is projected to save $4.55 billion in healthcare costs, prevent 266,000 obesity cases in 2032, and gain 114,000 quality-adjusted life years. Cost-effectiveness metrics, including cost/quality-adjusted life year gained, were cost saving. Spending on SSBs was projected to decrease by $33 per adult and $26 per child overall in the first year. Reductions in obesity prevalence for Black and Hispanic Californians were 1.8 times larger than for White Californians, and reductions for adults with lowest incomes (<130% Federal Poverty Level) were 1.4 times the reduction among those with highest incomes (>350% Federal Poverty Level). The tax is projected to save $112 in obesity-related healthcare costs per $1 invested.

CONCLUSIONS

A state-wide SSB tax in California would be cost saving, lead to reductions in obesity and improvement in SSB-related health equity, and lead to overall improvements in population health. The policy would generate more than $1.6 billion in state tax revenue annually that can also be used to improve health equity.

Cost Effectiveness of Calorie Labeling at Large Fast-Food Chains Across the U.S

INTRODUCTION

Calorie labeling of standard menu items has been implemented at large restaurant chains across the U.S. since 2018. The objective of this study was to evaluate the cost effectiveness of calorie labeling at large U.S. fast-food chains.

METHODS

This study evaluated the national implementation of calorie labeling at large fast-food chains from a modified societal perspective and projected its cost effectiveness over a 10-year period (2018-2027) using the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study microsimulation model. Using evidence from over 67 million fast-food restaurant transactions between 2015 and 2019, the impact of calorie labeling on calorie consumption and obesity incidence was projected. Benefits were estimated across all racial, ethnic, and income groups. Analyses were performed in 2022.

RESULTS

Calorie labeling is estimated to be cost saving; prevent 550,000 cases of obesity in 2027 alone (95% uncertainty interval=518,000; 586,000), including 41,500 (95% uncertainty interval=33,700; 50,800) cases of childhood obesity; and save $22.60 in healthcare costs for every $1 spent by society in implementation costs. Calorie labeling is also projected to prevent cases of obesity across all racial and ethnic groups (range between 126 and 185 cases per 100,000 people) and all income groups (range between 152 and 186 cases per 100,000 people).

CONCLUSIONS

Calorie labeling at large fast-food chains is estimated to be a cost-saving intervention to improve long-term population health. Calorie labeling is a low-cost intervention that is already implemented across the U.S. in large chain restaurants.

Treat All versus targeted strategies to select HBV-infected people for antiviral therapy in The Gambia, west Africa: a cost-effectiveness analysis

BACKGROUND

Global elimination of hepatitis B virus (HBV) requires expanded uptake of antiviral therapy, potentially by simplifying testing algorithms, especially in resource-limited countries. We evaluated the effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, and budget impact of three strategies that determine eligibility for anti-HBV treatment, as compared with the WHO 2015 treatment eligibility criteria, in The Gambia.

METHODS

We developed a microsimulation model of natural history using data from the Prevention of Liver Fibrosis and Cancer in Africa programme (known as PROLIFICA) in The Gambia, for an HBV-infected cohort of individuals aged 20 years. The algorithms included in the model were a conventional strategy using the European Association for the Study of the Liver (EASL) 2017 criteria, a simplified algorithm using hepatitis B e antigen and alanine aminotransferase (the Treatment Eligibility in Africa for the Hepatitis B Virus [TREAT-B] score), a Treat All approach for all HBV-infected individuals, and the WHO 2015 criteria. Outcomes to measure effectiveness were disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) and years of life saved (YLS), which were used to calculate incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) with the WHO 2015 criteria as the base-case scenario. Costs were assessed from a modified social perspective. A budget impact analysis was also done. We tested the robustness of results with a range of sensitiviy analyses including probabilistic sensitivity analysis.

FINDINGS

Compared with the WHO criteria, TREAT-B resulted in 4877 DALYs averted and Treat All resulted in 9352 DALYs averted, whereas the EASL criteria led to an excess of 795 DALYs. TREAT-B was cost-saving, whereas the ICER for Treat All (US$2149 per DALY averted) was higher than the cost-effectiveness threshold for The Gambia (0·5 times the country's gross domestic product per capita: $352). These patterns did not change when YLS was the outcome. In a modelled cohort of 5000 adults (aged 20 years) with chronic HBV infection from The Gambia, the 5-year budget impact was $1·14 million for Treat All, $0·66 million for TREAT-B, $1·03 million for the WHO criteria, and $1·16 million for the EASL criteria. Probabilistic sensitivity analysis indicated that among the Treat All, EASL, and TREAT-B algorithms, Treat All would become the most preferred strategy only with a willingness-to-pay threshold exceeding approximately $72 000 per DALY averted or $110 000 per YLS.

INTERPRETATION

Although the Treat All strategy might be the most effective, it is unlikely to be cost-effective in The Gambia. A simplified strategy such as TREAT-B might be a cost-saving alternative.

FUNDING

UK Research and Innovation (Medical Research Council).

TRANSLATION

For the French translation of the abstract see Supplementary Materials section.

Cost-effectiveness of Improved WIC Food Package for Preventing Childhood Obesity

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES

The Special Supplemental Nutrition Program for Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) prevents food insecurity and supports nutrition for more than 3 million low-income young children. Our objectives were to determine the cost-effectiveness of changes to WIC's nutrition standards in 2009 for preventing obesity and to estimate impacts on socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequities.

METHODS

We conducted a cost-effectiveness analysis to estimate impacts from 2010 through 2019 of the 2009 WIC food package change on obesity risk for children aged 2 to 4 years participating in WIC. Microsimulation models estimated the cases of obesity prevented in 2019 and costs per quality-adjusted-life year gained.

RESULTS

An estimated 14.0 million 2- to 4-year old US children (95% uncertainty interval (UI), 13.7-14.2 million) were reached by the updated WIC nutrition standards from 2010 through 2019. In 2019, an estimated 62 700 (95% UI, 53 900-71 100) cases of childhood obesity were prevented, entirely among children from households with low incomes, leading to improved health equity. The update was estimated to cost $10 600 per quality-adjusted-life year gained (95% UI, $9760-$11 700). If WIC had reached all eligible children, more than twice as many cases of childhood obesity would have been prevented.

CONCLUSIONS

Updates to WIC's nutrition standards for young children in 2009 were estimated to be highly cost-effective for preventing childhood obesity and contributed to reducing socioeconomic and racial/ethnic inequities in obesity prevalence. Improving nutrition policies for young children can be a sound public health investment; future research should explore how to improve access to them.

Social media platforms generate billions of dollars in revenue from U.S. youth: Findings from a simulated revenue model

Social media platforms are suspected to derive hefty profits from youth users who may be vulnerable to negative mental health outcomes, including depression, anxiety, and eating disorders. Platforms, however, are not required to make these data publicly available, which may limit the abilities of researchers and policymakers to adequately investigate and regulate platform practices. This study aimed to estimate the number of U.S.-based child (0-12 years old) and adolescent (13-17 years old) users and the annual advertising revenue generated from youth across six major platforms. Data were drawn from public survey and market research sources conducted in 2021 and 2022. A simulation analysis was conducted to derive estimates of the number of users and the annual advertising revenue per age group and overall (ages 0-17 years) for 2022. The findings reveal that, across six major social media platforms, the 2022 annual advertising revenue from youth users ages 0-17 years is nearly $11 billion. Approximately 30-40% of the advertising revenue generated from three social media platforms is attributable to young people. Our findings highlight the need for greater transparency from social media platforms as well as regulation of potentially harmful advertising practices that may exploit vulnerable child and adolescent social media users.

The societal costs and health impacts on obesity of BMI report cards in US schools

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to estimate the 10-year cost-effectiveness of school-based BMI report cards, a commonly implemented program for childhood obesity prevention in the US where student BMI is reported to parents/guardians by letter with nutrition and physical activity resources, for students in grades 3 to 7.

METHODS

A microsimulation model, using data inputs from evidence reviews on health impacts and costs, estimated: how many students would be reached if the 15 states currently measuring student BMI (but not reporting to parents/guardians) implemented BMI report cards from 2023 to 2032; how many cases of childhood obesity would be prevented; expected changes in childhood obesity prevalence; and costs to society.

RESULTS

BMI report cards were projected to reach 8.3 million children with overweight or obesity (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 7.7-8.9 million) but were not projected to prevent any cases of childhood obesity or significantly decrease childhood obesity prevalence. Ten-year costs totaled $210 million (95% UI: $30.5-$408 million) or $3.33 per child per year with overweight or obesity (95% UI: $3.11-$3.68).

CONCLUSIONS

School-based BMI report cards are not cost-effective childhood obesity interventions. Deimplementation should be considered to free up resources for implementing effective programs.

State-Specific Prevalence of Severe Obesity Among Adults in the US Using Bias Correction of Self-Reported Body Mass Index

INTRODUCTION

Adults with severe obesity are at increased risk for poor metabolic health and may need more intensive clinical and community supports. The prevalence of severe obesity is underestimated from self-reported weight and height data. We examined severe obesity prevalence among US adults by sociodemographic characteristics and by state after adjusting for self-report bias.

METHODS

Using a validated bias-correction method, we adjusted self-reported body mass index (BMI) data from the 2020 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS) by using measured data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We compared bias-corrected prevalence of severe obesity (BMI ≥40) with self-reported estimates by sociodemographic characteristics and state.

RESULTS

Self-reported BRFSS data significantly underestimated the prevalence of severe obesity compared with bias-corrected estimates. In 2020, 8.8% of adults had severe obesity based on the bias-corrected estimates, whereas 5.3% of adults had severe obesity based on self-reported data. Women had a significantly higher prevalence of bias-corrected severe obesity (11.1%) than men (6.5%). State-level prevalence of bias-corrected severe obesity ranged from 5.5% (Massachusetts) to 13.2% (West Virginia). Based on bias-corrected estimates, 16 states had a prevalence of severe obesity greater than 10%, a level not seen in the self-reported estimates.

CONCLUSION

Self-reported BRFSS data underestimated the overall prevalence of severe obesity by 40% (5.3% vs 8.8%). Accurate state-level estimates of severe obesity can help public health and health care decision makers prioritize and plan to implement effective prevention and treatment strategies for people who are at high risk for poor metabolic health.

Simulation-based estimates and projections of global, regional and country-level maternal mortality by cause, 1990-2050

Maternal mortality is a major global health challenge. Although progress has been made globally in reducing maternal deaths, measurement remains challenging given the many causes and frequent underreporting of maternal deaths. We developed the Global Maternal Health microsimulation model for women in 200 countries and territories, accounting for individual fertility preferences and clinical histories. Demographic, epidemiologic, clinical and health system data were synthesized from multiple sources, including the medical literature, Civil Registration Vital Statistics systems and Demographic and Health Survey data. We calibrated the model to empirical data from 1990 to 2015 and assessed the predictive accuracy of our model using indicators from 2016 to 2020. We projected maternal health indicators from 1990 to 2050 for each country and estimate that between 1990 and 2020 annual global maternal deaths declined by over 40% from 587,500 (95% uncertainty intervals (UI) 520,600-714,000) to 337,600 (95% UI 307,900-364,100), and are projected to decrease to 327,400 (95% UI 287,800-360,700) in 2030 and 320,200 (95% UI 267,100-374,600) in 2050. The global maternal mortality ratio is projected to decline to 167 (95% UI 142-188) in 2030, with 58 countries above 140, suggesting that on current trends, maternal mortality Sustainable Development Goal targets are unlikely to be met. Building on the development of our structural model, future research can identify context-specific policy interventions that could allow countries to accelerate reductions in maternal deaths.

A simulation-based comparative effectiveness analysis of policies to improve global maternal health outcomes

The Sustainable Development Goals include a target to reduce the global maternal mortality ratio (MMR) to less than 70 maternal deaths per 100,000 live births by 2030, with no individual country exceeding 140. However, on current trends the goals are unlikely to be met. We used the empirically calibrated Global Maternal Health microsimulation model, which simulates individual women in 200 countries and territories to evaluate the impact of different interventions and strategies from 2022 to 2030. Although individual interventions yielded fairly small reductions in maternal mortality, integrated strategies were more effective. A strategy to simultaneously increase facility births, improve the availability of clinical services and quality of care at facilities, and improve linkages to care would yield a projected global MMR of 72 (95% uncertainty interval (UI) = 58-87) in 2030. A comprehensive strategy adding family planning and community-based interventions would have an even larger impact, with a projected MMR of 58 (95% UI = 46-70). Although integrated strategies consisting of multiple interventions will probably be needed to achieve substantial reductions in maternal mortality, the relative priority of different interventions varies by setting. Our regional and country-level estimates can help guide priority setting in specific contexts to accelerate improvements in maternal health.

Cost-Effectiveness of 5 Public Health Approaches to Prevent Eating Disorders

INTRODUCTION

Eating disorders cause suffering and a high risk of death. Accelerating the translation of research into implementation will require intervention cost-effectiveness estimates. The objective of this study was to estimate the cost-effectiveness of 5 public health approaches to preventing eating disorders among adolescents and young adults.

METHODS

Using data from 2001 to 2017, the authors developed a microsimulation model of a closed cohort starting at the age of 10 years and ending at 40 years. In 2021, an analysis was conducted of 5 primary and secondary prevention strategies for eating disorders: school-based screening, primary care‒based screening, school-based universal prevention, excise tax on over-the-counter diet pills, and restriction on youth purchase of over-the-counter diet pills. The authors estimated the reduction in years lived with eating disorders and the increase in quality-adjusted life-years. Intervention costs and net monetary benefit were estimated using a threshold of $100,000/quality-adjusted life year.

RESULTS

All the 5 interventions were estimated to be cost-saving compared with the current practice. Discounted per person cost savings (over the 30-year analytic time horizon) ranged from $63 (clinic screening) to $1,102 (school-based universal prevention). Excluding caregiver costs for binge eating disorder and otherwise specified feeding and eating disorders substantially reduced cost savings (e.g., from $1,102 to $149 for the school-based intervention).

CONCLUSIONS

A range of public health strategies to reduce the societal burden of eating disorders are likely cost saving. Universal prevention interventions that promote healthy nutrition, physical activity, and media use behaviors without introducing weight stigma may prevent additional negative health outcomes, such as excess weight gain.

Estimating the total incidence of type 1 diabetes in children and adolescents aged 0-19 years from 1990 to 2050: a global simulation-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Previous studies of type 1 diabetes in childhood and adolescence have found large variations in reported incidence around the world. However, it is unclear whether these reported incidence levels are impacted by differences in country health systems and possible underdiagnosis and if so, to what degree. The aim of this study was to estimate both the total and diagnosed incidence of type 1 diabetes globally and to project childhood type 1 diabetes incidence indicators from 1990 to 2050 for each country.

METHODS

We developed the type 1 diabetes global microsimulation model to simulate the natural history and diagnosis of type 1 diabetes for children and adolescents (aged 0-19 years) in 200 countries and territories, accounting for variability in underlying incidence and health system performance. The model follows an open population of children and adolescents in monthly intervals and simulates type 1 diabetes incidence and progression, as well as health system factors which influence diagnosis. We calibrated the model to published data on type 1 diabetes incidence, autoantibody profiles, and proportion of cases diagnosed with diabetic ketoacidosis from 1990 to 2020 and assessed the predictive accuracy using a randomly sampled test set of data withheld from calibration.

FINDINGS

We estimate that in 2021 there were 355 900 (95% UI 334 200-377 300) total new cases of type 1 diabetes globally among children and adolescents, of which 56% (200 400 cases, 95% UI 180 600-219 500) were diagnosed. Estimated underdiagnosis varies substantially by region, with over 95% of new cases diagnosed in Australia and New Zealand, western and northern Europe, and North America, but less than 35% of new cases diagnosed in west Africa, south and southeastern Asia, and Melanesia. The total number of incident childhood cases of type 1 diabetes is projected to increase to 476 700 (95% UI 449 500-504 300) in 2050.

INTERPRETATION

Our research indicates that the total global incidence of childhood and adolescent type 1 diabetes is larger than previously estimated, with nearly one-in-two children currently undiagnosed. Policymakers should plan for adequate diagnostic and medical capacity to improve timely type 1 diabetes detection and treatment, particularly as incidence is projected to increase worldwide, with highest numbers of new cases in Africa.

FUNDING

Novo Nordisk.

Excess mortality associated with elevated body weight in the USA by state and demographic subgroup: A modelling study

BACKGROUND

The obesity epidemic in the USA continues to grow nationwide. Although excess weight-related mortality has been studied in general, less is known about how it varies by demographic subgroup within the USA. In this study we estimated excess mortality associated with elevated body weight nationally and by state and subgroup.

METHODS

We developed a nationally-representative microsimulation (individual-level) model of US adults between 1999 and 2016, based on risk factor data from 6,002,012 Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System respondents. Prior probability distributions for hazard ratios relating body-mass index (BMI) to mortality were informed by a global pooling dataset. Individual-level mortality risks were modelled accounting for demographics, smoking history, and BMI adjusted for self-report bias. We calibrated the model to empirical all-cause mortality rates from CDC WONDER by state and subgroup, and assessed the predictive accuracy of the model using a random sample of data withheld from model fitting. We simulated counterfactual scenarios to estimate excess mortality attributable to different levels of excess weight and smoking history.

FINDINGS

We estimated that excess weight was responsible for more than 1300 excess deaths per day (nearly 500,000 per year) and a loss in life expectancy of nearly 2·4 years in 2016, contributing to higher excess mortality than smoking. Relative excess mortality rates were nearly twice as high for women compared to men in 2016 (21·9% vs 13·9%), and were higher for Black non-Hispanic adults. By state, overall excess weight-related life expectancy loss ranged from 1·75 years (95% UI 1·57-1·94) in Colorado to 3·18 years (95% UI 2·86-3·51) in Mississippi.

INTERPRETATION

Excess weight has substantial impacts on mortality in the USA, with large disparities by state and subgroup. Premature mortality will likely increase as obesity continues to rise.

FUNDING

The JPB Foundation, NIH, CDC.

Improvements in life expectancy among childhood cancer survivors: Uneven gains and remaining challenges

10050

Background: Childhood cancer survivors are at risk for shortened lifespan. Projections of life expectancy (LE) by diagnosis can provide benchmarks for assessing improvements over time. Methods: We developed a simulation model to project risk for common, life-threatening chronic health conditions (CHCs; heart failure, myocardial infarction, valvular disease, stroke, secondary breast cancer, colorectal cancer, glial tumors, sarcomas) and excess mortality among 5-year survivors, based on patient characteristics (sex, age at diagnosis, diagnosis) and treatment exposures (chemotherapy, radiation dose). Risk was estimated using statistical models and Childhood Cancer Survivor Study data. Age-related CHC risks (SEER, NHLBI) and competing mortality (CDC Wonder) were based on national databases. We used model calibration to identify parameter sets that generated outcomes consistent with observed data. Model outcomes included conditional LE and 10-year survival probability at age 40. For comparisons to the general population, we simulated age-, sex-, and diagnosis year-matched individuals who faced only competing mortality rates. Results: Among a cohort representative of the CCSS (mean diagnosis age, 7.4 yrs), compared to the general population, the gap in LE among survivors diagnosed in the 1970s vs. 1990s decreased from 17 yrs (25%) to 11 yrs (17%). Changes in LE among survivors diagnosed in the 1990s vs. 1970s varied by diagnosis, with leukemia, lymphoma, and CNS tumor survivors estimated to live an additional 8 to 11 yrs (Table). In contrast, considerably smaller gains were estimated for sarcoma and renal tumor survivors (1–3 yrs) and a loss for neuroblastoma (-3 yrs). Among survivors who reached age 40, the probability of surviving an additional 10 years increased from 89% to 92% between 1970s vs. 1990s, with the greatest gains for lymphoma and CNS tumors. Conclusions: Although temporal changes in pediatric oncology are projected to result in LE gains among survivors, considerable variation is projected across diagnoses. These findings highlight the uneven success of improving treatments for all cancers. [Table: see text]

Incidence and prevalence of type 1 diabetes and diabetic ketoacidosis in children and adolescents (0–19 years) in Thailand (2015–2020): A nationwide population-based study

Background

There is a lack of published studies on incidence of type 1 diabetes (T1D) and diabetic ketoacidosis (DKA) in Thailand. We aimed to estimate the national prevalence and incidence of T1D and DKA.

Methods

Using Thailand's nationwide population-based longitudinal data covering 69 million individuals, we included the entire children and adolescents recorded in the database. Diseases were identified using ICD-10 codes. We investigated the prevalence of T1D and cumulative incidence of T1D, T1D referral, DKA, and mortality risk of DKA in five years from 2015 to 2020. T1D and DKA annual incidence were also estimated. We present findings for the total population and by sex, age, and urban-rural residencies.

Findings

A total of 19,784,781 individuals aged less than 20 years were identified in 2015. The crude T1D prevalence in 2015 was 17·6 per 100,000 and crude T1D incidence rate was 5·0 per 100,000. T1D prevalence and cumulative incidence were significantly higher in older children (p < 0·001) and females (p < 0·001) than their counterparts. Among those with T1D, cumulative incidence of T1D referral was 42·4%. It was highest amongst children aged 5–14 years and was significantly higher among females (all p < 0·05). The crude DKA incidence rate at any point after diagnosis was 10·8%. The cumulative incidence of DKA was significantly higher in females and peaked in individuals aged 5–14 years (all p < 0·001). The DKA mortality risk was 258·2 per 100,000.

Interpretation

Older children and females had higher T1D prevalence. The DKA cumulative incidence and mortality risk were relatively low, and such incidence was peak in individuals aged 5–14 years.

Funding

Harvard University.

The Prevalence of Islet Autoantibodies in Children and Adolescents With Type 1 Diabetes Mellitus: A Global Scoping Review

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Pancreatic islet autoantibodies (iAb) are the hallmark of autoimmunity in type 1 diabetes. A more comprehensive understanding of the global iAb prevalence could help reduce avertible morbidity and mortality among children and adolescents and contribute to the understanding in the observed differences in the incidence, prevalence and health outcomes of children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes across and within countries. We present the first scoping review that provides a global synthesis of the prevalence of iAb in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes.

RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS

We searched Ovid MEDLINE^® with Daily Update, Embase (Elsevier, embase.com) and PubMed (National Library of Medicine -NCBI), for studies pertaining to prevalence in children and adolescents (0-19) with type 1 diabetes published between 1 Jan 1990 and 18 June 2021. Results were synthesized using Covidence systematic review software and meta-analysis was completed using R v3·6·1. Two reviewers independently screened abstracts with a third reviewer resolving conflicts (k= 0·92).

RESULTS

The review revealed 125 studies from 48 different countries, with 92 from high-income countries. Globally, in new-onset type 1 diabetes, IA-2A was the most prevalent iAb 0·714 [95% CI (0·71, 0·72)], followed by ICA 0·681 [95% CI (0·67, 0·69)], ZnT8A was 0·654 [95% CI (0·64, 0·66)], GADA 0·636 [95% CI (0·63, 0·66)] and then IAA 0·424 [95% CI (0·42, 0·43)], with substantial variation across world regions. The weighted mean prevalence of IA-2A was more variable, highest in Europe at 0·749 [95% CI (0·74, 0·76)] followed by Northern America 0·662 [95% CI (0·64, 0·69)], Latin America and the Caribbean 0·632 [95% CI (0·54, 0·72)], Oceania 0·603 [95% CI (0·54, 0·67)], Asia 0·466 [95% CI (0·44, 0·50)] and Africa 0·311 [95% CI (0·23, 0·40)]. In established cases of type 1 diabetes, GADA was the most prevalent iAb 0·407 [95% CI (0·39, 0·42)] followed by ZnT8A 0·322 [95% CI (0·29, 0·36)], IA-2A 0·302 [95% CI (0·29, 0·32)], IAA 0·258 [95% CI (0·24, 0·26)] and ICA 0·145 [95% CI (0·13, 0·16)], again with substantial variation across world regions.

CONCLUSION

Understanding the global prevalence of iAb in children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes could help with earlier identification of those at-risk of developing type 1 diabetes and inform clinical practice, health policies, resource allocation, and targeted healthcare interventions to better screen, diagnose and manage children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes.

Variation in the incidence of type 1 diabetes mellitus in children and adolescents by world region and country income group: A scoping review

INTRODUCTION

Around 18.7 million of the 537 million people with diabetes worldwide live in low-income and middle-income countries (LMIC), where there is also an increase in the number of children, adolescents, and young adults diagnosed with type 1 diabetes (T1D). There are substantial gaps in data in the current understanding of the epidemiological patterns and trends in incidence rates of T1D at the global level.

METHODS

We performed a scoping review of published studies that established the incidence of T1D in children, adolescents, and young adults aged 0-25 years at national and sub-national levels using PubMed, Embase and Global Health. Data was analyzed using R programming.

RESULTS

The scoping review identified 237 studies which included T1D incidence estimates from 92 countries, revealing substantial variability in the annual incidence of T1D by age, geographic region, and country-income classification. Highest rates were reported in the 5-9 and 10-14 year age groups than in the 0-4 and 15-19 year age groups, respectively. In the 0-14 year age group, the highest incidence was reported in Northern Europe (23.96 per 100,000), Australia/New Zealand (22.8 per 100,000), and Northern America (18.02 per 100,000), while the lowest was observed in Melanesia, Western Africa, and South America (all < 1 per 100,000). For the 0-19 year age group, the highest incidence was reported in Northern Europe (39.0 per 100,000), Northern America (20.07 per 100,000), and Northern Africa (10.1 per 100,000), while the lowest was observed in Eastern and Western Africa (< 2 per 100,000). Higher incidence rates were observed in high-income countries compared to LMICs. There was a paucity of published studies focusing on determining the incidence of T1D in LMICs.

CONCLUSION

The review reveals substantial variability in incidence rates of T1D by geographic region, country income group, and age. There is a dearth of information on T1D in LMICs, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa, where incidence remains largely unknown. Investment in population-based registries and longitudinal cohort studies could help improve the current understanding of the epidemiological trends and help inform health policy, resource allocation, and targeted interventions to enhance access to effective, efficient, equitable, and responsive healthcare services.

Limiting Television to Reduce Childhood Obesity: Cost-Effectiveness of Five Population Strategies

Objective: To quantify the potential population-wide costs, number of individuals reached, and impact on obesity of five effective interventions to reduce children's television viewing if implemented nationally. Study Design: Utilizing evidence from systematic reviews, the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study (CHOICES) microsimulation model estimated the cost, population reach, and impact on childhood obesity from 2020 to 2030 of five hypothetical policy strategies to reduce the negative impact of children's TV exposure: (1) eliminating the tax deductibility of food and beverage advertising; (2) targeting TV reduction during home visiting programs; (3) motivational interviewing to reduce home television time at Women, Infants, and Children (WIC) clinic visits; (4) adoption of a television-reduction curriculum in child care; and (5) limiting noneducational television in licensed child care settings. Results: Eliminating the tax deductibility of food advertising could reach the most children [106 million, 95% uncertainty interval (UI): 105-107 million], prevent the most cases of obesity (78,700, 95% UI: 30,200-130,000), and save more in health care costs than it costs to implement. Strategies targeting young children in child care and WIC also cost little to implement (between $0.19 and $32.73 per child reached), and, although reaching fewer children because of the restricted age range, were estimated to prevent between 25,500 (95% UI: 4600-59,300) and 35,400 (95% UI: 13,200-62,100) cases of obesity. Home visiting to reduce television viewing had high costs and a low reach. Conclusions: Interventions to reduce television exposure across a range of settings, if implemented widely, could help prevent childhood obesity in the population at relatively low cost.

The impact of scaling up access to treatment and imaging modalities on global disparities in breast cancer survival: a simulation-based analysis

BACKGROUND

Female breast cancer is the most commonly diagnosed cancer in the world, with wide variations in reported survival by country. Women in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) in particular face several barriers to breast cancer services, including diagnostics and treatment. We aimed to estimate the potential impact of scaling up the availability of treatment and imaging modalities on breast cancer survival globally, together with improvements in quality of care.

METHODS

For this simulation-based analysis, we used a microsimulation model of global cancer survival, which accounts for the availability and stage-specific survival impact of specific treatment modalities (chemotherapy, radiotherapy, surgery, and targeted therapy), imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, and single-photon emission computed tomography [SPECT]), and quality of cancer care, to simulate 5-year net survival for women with newly diagnosed breast cancer in 200 countries and territories in 2018. We calibrated the model to empirical data on 5-year net breast cancer survival in 2010-14 from CONCORD-3. We evaluated the potential impact of scaling up specific imaging and treatment modalities and quality of care to the mean level of high-income countries, individually and in combination. We ran 1000 simulations for each policy intervention and report the means and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for all model outcomes.

FINDINGS

We estimate that global 5-year net survival for women diagnosed with breast cancer in 2018 was 67·9% (95% UI 62·9-73·4) overall, with an almost 25-times difference between low-income (3·5% [0·4-10·0]) and high-income (87·0% [85·6-88·4]) countries. Among individual treatment modalities, scaling up access to surgery alone was estimated to yield the largest survival gains globally (2·7% [95% UI 0·4-8·3]), and scaling up CT alone would have the largest global impact among imaging modalities (0·5% [0·0-2·0]). Scaling up a package of traditional modalities (surgery, chemotherapy, radiotherapy, ultrasound, and x-ray) could improve global 5-year net survival to 75·6% (95% UI 70·6-79·4), with survival in low-income countries improving from 3·5% (0·4-10·0) to 28·6% (4·9-60·1). Adding concurrent improvements in quality of care could further improve global 5-year net survival to 78·2% (95% UI 74·9-80·4), with a substantial impact in low-income countries, improving net survival to 55·3% (42·2-67·8). Comprehensive scale-up of access to all modalities and improvements in quality of care could improve global 5-year net survival to 82·3% (95% UI 79·3-85·0).

INTERPRETATION

Comprehensive scale-up of treatment and imaging modalities, and improvements in quality of care could improve global 5-year net breast cancer survival by nearly 15 percentage points. Scale-up of traditional modalities and quality-of-care improvements could achieve 70% of these total potential gains, with substantial impact in LMICs, providing a more feasible pathway to improving breast cancer survival in these settings even without the benefits of future investments in targeted therapy and advanced imaging.

FUNDING

Harvard T H Chan School of Public Health, and National Cancer Institute P30 Cancer Center Support Grant to Memorial Sloan Kettering Cancer Center.

Forecasting asparaginase quantity required to treat pediatric ALL in LMICs using ACCESS FORxECAST

10031

Background: Asparaginase (ASN) is a crucial component of pediatric acute lymphoblastic leukemia (ALL) protocols. ASN is available in three enzyme formulations: native from Escherichia Coli ( E. coli), PEGylated from E. coli (PEG), and native erwinia from Erwinia chrysanthemi (Erwinase). PEG is typically preferred in high-income countries, while E. coli is more accessible in low and middle income countries (LMICs). Erwinase is reserved for patients who develop hypersensitivity. Short shelf lives, high prices, intermittent availability, and concern for substandard formulations in LMICs have created a need for proactive ASN demand estimates, particularly in LMICs. Methods: We modified FORxECAST, a publicly available tool that forecasts pediatric cancer drug quantity and cost, to estimate ASN quantity required to treat pediatric ALL in 2021 across all LMICs. Incidence data is based on the Global Childhood Cancer microsimulation model, which extrapolates country registries to estimate diagnosed pediatric ALL patients. We forecast ASN quantity for both a base regimen (BR), recommended by the International Pediatric Oncology Society (SIOP), and a more aggressive regimen (AR) used in some LMICs with more advanced supportive care capacity. For both BR and AR, we estimate ASN quantity across four scenarios, outlining how quantity would vary based on formulation and ability to switch in cases of hypersensitivity. Results: The estimated quantity of ASN required to treat all children diagnosed with ALL in LMICs in 2021, across scenarios and regimens, is provided (Table). If E. coli were used to treat all diagnosed pediatric ALL patients across LMICs, required quantity would range from 1,198 M IU (BR) to 1,661 M IU (AR) (Scenario 1). If PEG were used, required quantity would range 150 M IU (BR) to 473 M IU (AR) (Scenario 2). Accounting for hypersensitivity would require 77 M IU (BR) to 137 M IU (AR) Erwinase (Scenarios 3 and 4). Conclusions: We adapted FORxECAST to be ASN-specific and estimated demand in LMICs for a range of scenarios, including for second line Erwinase; accounting for hypersensitivity is particularly important because discontinuation typically results in lower cure rates. We also estimated how quantity of ASN required would increase with treatment intensity. These results provide the first quantification of ASN need for pediatric ALL in LMICs, creating a demand estimate that can inform private and public efforts to produce a reliable supply of high quality ASN for all children with ALL.[Table: see text]

Impact Of The Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act On Obesity Trends

The Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act of 2010 strengthened nutrition standards for meals and beverages provided through the National School Lunch, Breakfast, and Smart Snacks Programs, affecting fifty million children daily at 99,000 schools. The legislation's impact on childhood obesity is unknown. We tested whether the legislation was associated with reductions in child obesity risk over time using an interrupted time series design for 2003-18 among 173,013 youth in the National Survey of Children's Health. We found no significant association between the legislation and childhood obesity trends overall. For children in poverty, however, the risk of obesity declined substantially each year after the act's implementation, translating to a 47 percent reduction in obesity prevalence in 2018 from what would have been expected without the legislation. These results suggest that the Healthy, Hunger-Free Kids Act's science-based nutritional standards should be maintained to support healthy growth, especially among children living in poverty.

Forecasting essential childhood cancer drug need: An innovative model-based approach

BACKGROUND

Childhood cancer outcomes in low-income and middle-income countries have not kept pace with advances in care and survival in high-income countries. A contributing factor to this survival gap is unreliable access to essential drugs.

METHODS

The authors created a tool (FOR_x ECAST) capable of predicting drug quantity and cost for 18 pediatric cancers. FOR_x ECAST enables users to estimate the quantity and cost of each drug based on local incidence, stage breakdown, treatment regimen, and price. Two country-specific examples are used to illustrate the capabilities of FOR_x ECAST to predict drug quantities.

RESULTS

On the basis of domestic public-sector price data, the projected annual cost of drugs to treat childhood cancer cases is 0.8 million US dollars in Kenya and 3.0 million US dollars in China, with average median price ratios of 0.9 and 0.1, respectively, compared with costs sourced from the Management Sciences for Health (MSH) International Medical Products Price Guide. According to the cumulative chemotherapy cost, the most expensive disease to treat is acute lymphoblastic lymphoma in Kenya, but a higher relative unit cost of methotrexate makes osteosarcoma the most expensive diagnosis to treat in China.

CONCLUSIONS

FOR_x ECAST enables needs-based estimates of childhood cancer drug volumes to inform health system planning in a wide range of contexts. It is broadly adaptable, allowing decision makers to generate results specific to their needs. The resultant estimates of drug need can help equip policymakers and health governance institutions with evidence-informed data to advance innovative procurement strategies that drive global improvements in childhood cancer drug access.

Medical imaging and nuclear medicine: a Lancet Oncology Commission

The diagnosis and treatment of patients with cancer requires access to imaging to ensure accurate management decisions and optimal outcomes. Our global assessment of imaging and nuclear medicine resources identified substantial shortages in equipment and workforce, particularly in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). A microsimulation model of 11 cancers showed that the scale-up of imaging would avert 3·2% (2·46 million) of all 76·0 million deaths caused by the modelled cancers worldwide between 2020 and 2030, saving 54·92 million life-years. A comprehensive scale-up of imaging, treatment, and care quality would avert 9·55 million (12·5%) of all cancer deaths caused by the modelled cancers worldwide, saving 232·30 million life-years. Scale-up of imaging would cost US$6·84 billion in 2020-30 but yield lifetime productivity gains of $1·23 trillion worldwide, a net return of $179·19 per $1 invested. Combining the scale-up of imaging, treatment, and quality of care would provide a net benefit of $2·66 trillion and a net return of $12·43 per $1 invested. With the use of a conservative approach regarding human capital, the scale-up of imaging alone would provide a net benefit of $209·46 billion and net return of $31·61 per $1 invested. With comprehensive scale-up, the worldwide net benefit using the human capital approach is $340·42 billion and the return per dollar invested is $2·46. These improved health and economic outcomes hold true across all geographical regions. We propose actions and investments that would enhance access to imaging equipment, workforce capacity, digital technology, radiopharmaceuticals, and research and training programmes in LMICs, to produce massive health and economic benefits and reduce the burden of cancer globally.

Association of body mass index with health care expenditures in the United States by age and sex

Background

Estimates of health care costs associated with excess weight are needed to inform the development of cost-effective obesity prevention efforts. However, commonly used cost estimates are not sensitive to changes in weight across the entire body mass index (BMI) distribution as they are often based on discrete BMI categories.

Methods

We estimated continuous BMI-related health care expenditures using data from the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) 2011–2016 for 175,726 respondents. We adjusted BMI for self-report bias using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 2011–2016, and controlled for potential confounding between BMI and medical expenditures using a two-part model. Costs are reported in $US 2019.

Results

We found a J-shaped curve of medical expenditures by BMI, with higher costs for females and the lowest expenditures occurring at a BMI of 20.5 for adult females and 23.5 for adult males. Over 30 units of BMI, each one-unit BMI increase was associated with an additional cost of $253 (95% CI $167-$347) per person. Among adults, obesity was associated with $1,861 (95% CI $1,656-$2,053) excess annual medical costs per person, accounting for $172.74 billion (95% CI $153.70-$190.61) of annual expenditures. Severe obesity was associated with excess costs of $3,097 (95% CI $2,777-$3,413) per adult. Among children, obesity was associated with $116 (95% CI $14-$201) excess costs per person and $1.32 billion (95% CI $0.16-$2.29) of medical spending, with severe obesity associated with $310 (95% CI $124-$474) excess costs per child.

Conclusions

Higher health care costs are associated with excess body weight across a broad range of ages and BMI levels, and are especially high for people with severe obesity. These findings highlight the importance of promoting a healthy weight for the entire population while also targeting efforts to prevent extreme weight gain over the life course.

Global costs, health benefits, and economic benefits of scaling up treatment and imaging modalities for survival of 11 cancers: a simulation-based analysis

BACKGROUND

In addition to increased availability of treatment modalities, advanced imaging modalities are increasingly recommended to improve global cancer care. However, estimates of the costs and benefits of investments to improve cancer survival are scarce, especially for low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). In this analysis, we aimed to estimate the costs and lifetime health and economic benefits of scaling up imaging and treatment modality packages on cancer survival, both globally and by country income group.

METHODS

Using a previously developed model of global cancer survival, we estimated stage-specific cancer survival and life-years gained (accounting for competing mortality) in 200 countries and territories for patients diagnosed with one of 11 cancers (oesophagus, stomach, colon, rectum, anus, liver, pancreas, lung, breast, cervix uteri, and prostate) representing 60% of all cancer diagnoses between 2020 and 2030 (inclusive of full years). We evaluated the costs and health and economic benefits of scaling up packages of treatment (chemotherapy, surgery, radiotherapy, and targeted therapy), imaging modalities (ultrasound, x-ray, CT, MRI, PET, single-photon emission CT), and quality of care to the mean level of high-income countries, separately and in combination, compared with no scale-up. Costs and benefits are presented in 2018 US$ and discounted at 3% annually.

FINDINGS

For the 11 cancers studied, we estimated that without scale-up (ie, with current availability of treatment, imaging, and quality of care) there will be 76·0 million cancer deaths (95% UI 73·9-78·6) globally for patients diagnosed between 2020 and 2030, with more than 70% of these deaths occurring in LMICs. Comprehensive scale-up of treatment, imaging, and quality of care could avert 12·5% (95% UI 9·0-16·3) of these deaths globally, ranging from 2·8% (1·8-4·3) in high-income countries to 38·2% (32·6-44·5) in low-income countries. Globally, we estimate that comprehensive scale-up would cost an additional $232·9 billion (95% UI 85·9-422·0) between 2020 and 2030 (representing a 6·9% increase in cancer treatment costs), but produce $2·9 trillion (1·8-4·0) in lifetime economic benefits, yielding a return of $12·43 (6·47-33·23) per dollar invested. Scaling up treatment and quality of care without imaging would yield a return of $6·15 (2·66-16·71) per dollar invested and avert 7·0% (3·9-10·3) of cancer deaths worldwide.

INTERPRETATION

Simultaneous investment in cancer treatment, imaging, and quality of care could yield substantial health and economic benefits, especially in LMICs. These results provide a compelling rationale for the value of investing in the global scale-up of cancer care.

FUNDING

Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health and National Cancer Institute.

Cost-effectiveness of prevention and early detection of gastric cancer in Western countries

Gastric cancer (GC) is a significant global health problem, with Helicobacter pylori infection estimated to be responsible for 89% of non-cardiac GC cases, or 78% of all GC cases. The International Agency for Research on Cancer has called for Helicobacter pylori test-and-treat strategies in countries with high rates of GC. However, for countries with low rates of GC, such as most Western countries, the balance between benefits, harms and costs of screening is less clear-cut. GC is a disease with a well-characterized precancerous process, providing the basis for primary and secondary prevention efforts. However, rigorous data assessing the impact of such interventions in Western countries are lacking. In the absence of clinical trials, modelling offers a unique approach to evaluate the potential impact of various screening and surveillance interventions. In this paper, we provide an overview of modelling studies evaluating the cost-effectiveness of GC screening and surveillance in Western countries.

Applied Methods for Estimating Transition Probabilities from Electronic Health Record Data

BACKGROUND

Electronic health record (EHR) data contain longitudinal patient information and standardized diagnostic codes. EHR data may be useful for estimating transition probabilities for state-transition models, but no guidelines exist on appropriate methods. We applied 3 potential methods to estimate transition probabilities from EHR data, using pediatric eating disorders (EDs) as a case study.

METHODS

We obtained EHR data from PEDsnet, which includes 8 US children's hospitals. Data included inpatient, outpatient, and emergency department visits for all patients with an ED. We mapped diagnoses to 3 ED health states: anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, and other specified feeding or eating disorder. We estimated 1-y transition probabilities for males and females using 3 approaches: simple first-last proportions, a multistate Markov (MSM) model, and independent survival models.

RESULTS

Transition probability estimates varied widely between approaches. The first-last proportion approach estimated higher probabilities of remaining in the same health state, while the MSM and independent survival approaches estimated higher probabilities of transitioning to a different health state. All estimates differed substantially from published literature.

LIMITATIONS

As a source of health state information, EHR data are incomplete and sometimes inaccurate. EHR data were especially challenging for EDs, limiting the estimation and interpretation of transition probabilities.

CONCLUSIONS

The 3 approaches produced very different transition probability estimates. Estimates varied considerably from published literature and were rescaled and calibrated for use in a microsimulation model. Estimation of transition probabilities from EHR data may be more promising for diseases that are well documented in the EHR. Furthermore, clinicians and health systems should work to improve documentation of ED in the EHR. Further research is needed on methods for using EHR data to inform transition probabilities.

Life Expectancy of Adult Survivors of Childhood Cancer Over 3 Decades

Importance

Advances in childhood and adolescent cancer treatment have been associated with increased rates of cure during the past 3 decades; however, improvement in adult life expectancy for these individuals has not yet been reported.

Objectives

To project long-term survival and assess whether life expectancy will improve among adult survivors of childhood cancer who were treated in more recent decades.

Design, Setting, and Participants

A microsimulation model of competing mortality risks was developed using data from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study on 5-year survivors of childhood cancer diagnosed between 1970 and 1999. The model included (1) late recurrence, (2) treatment-related late effects (health-related [subsequent cancers, cardiac events, pulmonary conditions, and other] and external causes), and (3) US background mortality rates.

Exposures

Treatment subgroups (no treatment or surgery only, chemotherapy alone, radiotherapy alone, and radiotherapy with chemotherapy) and individuals with acute lymphoblastic leukemia during childhood by era (1970-1979, 1980-1989, and 1990-1999).

Main Outcomes and Measures

Conditional life expectancy (defined as the number of years a 5-year survivor can expect to live), cumulative cause-specific mortality risk, and 10-year mortality risks conditional on attaining ages of 30, 40, 50, and 60 years.

Results

Among the hypothetical cohort of 5-year survivors of childhood cancer representative of the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study participants (44% female and 56% male; mean [SD] age at diagnosis, 7.3 [5.6] years), conditional life expectancy was 48.5 years (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 47.6-49.6 years) for 5-year survivors diagnosed in 1970-1979, 53.7 years (95% UI, 52.6-54.7 years) for those diagnosed in 1980-1989, and 57.1 years (95% UI, 55.9-58.1 years) for those diagnosed in 1990-1999. Compared with individuals without a history of cancer, these results represented a gap in life expectancy of 25% (95% UI, 24%-27%) (16.5 years [95% UI, 15.5-17.5 years]) for those diagnosed in 1970-1979, 19% (95% UI, 17%-20%) (12.3 years [95% UI, 11.3-13.4 years]) for those diagnosed in 1980-1989, and 14% (95% UI, 13%-16%) (9.2 years [95% UI, 8.3-10.4 years]) for those diagnosed in 1990-1999. During the 3 decades, the proportion of survivors treated with chemotherapy alone increased (from 18% in 1970-1979 to 54% in 1990-1999), and the life expectancy gap in this chemotherapy-alone group decreased from 11.0 years (95% UI, 9.0-13.1 years) to 6.0 years (95% UI, 4.5-7.6 years). In contrast, during the same time frame, only modest improvements in the gap in life expectancy were projected for survivors treated with radiotherapy (21.0 years [95% UI, 18.5-23.2 years] to 17.6 years [95% UI, 14.2-21.2 years]) or with radiotherapy and chemotherapy (17.9 years [95% UI, 16.7-19.2 years] to 14.8 years [95% UI, 13.1-16.7 years]). For the largest group of survivors by diagnosis-those with acute lymphoblastic leukemia-the gap in life expectancy decreased from 14.7 years (95% UI, 12.8-16.5 years) in 1970-1979 to 8.0 years (95% UI, 6.2-9.7 years).

Conclusions and Relevance

Evolving treatment approaches are projected to be associated with improved life expectancy after treatment for pediatric cancer, in particular among those who received chemotherapy alone for their childhood cancer diagnosis. Despite improvements, survivors remain at risk for shorter lifespans, especially when radiotherapy was included as part of their childhood cancer treatment.

Cost-Effectiveness of the International Late Effects of Childhood Cancer Guideline Harmonization Group Screening Guidelines to Prevent Heart Failure in Survivors of Childhood Cancer

PURPOSE

Survivors of childhood cancer treated with anthracyclines and/or chest-directed radiation are at increased risk for heart failure (HF). The International Late Effects of Childhood Cancer Guideline Harmonization Group (IGHG) recommends risk-based screening echocardiograms, but evidence supporting its frequency and cost-effectiveness is limited.

PATIENTS AND METHODS

Using the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study and St Jude Lifetime Cohort, we developed a microsimulation model of the clinical course of HF. We estimated long-term health outcomes and economic impact of screening according to IGHG-defined risk groups (low [doxorubicin-equivalent anthracycline dose of 1-99 mg/m2 and/or radiotherapy < 15 Gy], moderate [100 to < 250 mg/m2 or 15 to < 35 Gy], or high [≥ 250 mg/m2 or ≥ 35 Gy or both ≥ 100 mg/m2 and ≥ 15 Gy]). We compared 1-, 2-, 5-, and 10-year interval-based screening with no screening. Screening performance and treatment effectiveness were estimated based on published studies. Costs and quality-of-life weights were based on national averages and published reports. Outcomes included lifetime HF risk, quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Strategies with ICERs < $100,000 per QALY gained were considered cost-effective.

RESULTS

Among the IGHG risk groups, cumulative lifetime risks of HF without screening were 36.7% (high risk), 24.7% (moderate risk), and 16.9% (low risk). Routine screening reduced this risk by 4% to 11%, depending on frequency. Screening every 2, 5, and 10 years was cost-effective for high-risk survivors, and every 5 and 10 years for moderate-risk survivors. In contrast, ICERs were > $175,000 per QALY gained for all strategies for low-risk survivors, representing approximately 40% of those for whom screening is currently recommended.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that refinement of recommended screening strategies for IGHG high- and low-risk survivors is needed, including careful reconsideration of discontinuing asymptomatic left ventricular dysfunction and HF screening in low-risk survivors.

What are the volume and budget needs to provide chemotherapy to all children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia in Thailand? Development and application of an estimation tool

OBJECTIVE

Insufficient access to anticancer medicines may contribute to the wide survival differences of children with cancers across the globe. We developed a tool to estimate the volume of medicines and budget requirements to provide chemotherapy to children with acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (ALL).

DESIGN

Development and application of an estimation tool.

SETTING

Paediatric oncology hospital departments in Thailand.

PARTICIPANTS

318 children aged 0-14 years diagnosed with ALL and 215 children with undiagnosed ALL.

INTERVENTIONS

Estimates of volume and budget requirements for administering a full course of chemotherapy for ALL and a further course for children who relapse, according to National Treatment Guidelines.

PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES

Primary outcome measures were the volume (mg) and cost (US$) of medicines needed to treat children with ALL. For medicines whose main indication is paediatric ALL (asparaginase and 6-mercaptopurine), we estimated the difference between volume needed and actual sales in 2017 (secondary outcome).

RESULTS

Ten anticancer medicines and four chemoprotective agents are needed for the treatment of paediatric ALL according to the Thai treatment guidelines. Of these 14 medicines, 13 are included in the WHO essential medicines list for children. All are available as generics. We estimated that essential chemotherapy and chemoprotective agents to treat all children diagnosed with ALL in Thailand in 2017 would cost US$ 814 952 (US$ 1 365 422 for diagnosed and undiagnosed children), which corresponds to 0.005% (0.008%) of the country's total health expenditure. The volumes of asparaginase and 6-mercaptopurine available on the Thai market in 2017 were more than sufficient (2.3 and 1.5 times the amounts needed, respectively) to treat all children diagnosed with ALL.

CONCLUSIONS

Procuring sufficient quantities of essential medicines to treat children with ALL requires relatively modest resources. Medicine cost should not be a major barrier to ALL treatment in similar settings.

Cost-Effectiveness Of The Sugar-Sweetened Beverage Excise Tax In Mexico

An excise tax of 1 peso per liter on sugar-sweetened beverages was implemented in Mexico in 2014. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of this tax and an alternative tax scenario of 2 pesos per liter. We developed a cohort simulation model calibrated for Mexico to project the impact of the tax over ten years. The current tax is projected to prevent 239,900 cases of obesity, 39 percent of which would be among children. It could also prevent 61,340 cases of diabetes, lead to gains of 55,300 quality-adjusted life-years, and avert 5,840 disability-adjusted life-years. The tax is estimated to save $3.98 per dollar spent on its implementation. Doubling the tax to 2 pesos per liter would nearly double the cost savings and health impact. Countries with comparable conditions could benefit from implementing a similar tax.

Forecasting global essential childhood cancer drug need and cost: An innovative model-based approach

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Background: Childhood cancer outcomes in low-middle income countries (LMICs) have not kept pace with advances in care and survival in high income countries (HICs). A contributing factor to this survival gap is unreliable access to essential cancer drugs. Lack of data on the aggregate need and cost of essential cancer drugs has hampered rational planning and acquisition in many LMICs. Methods: We created a pediatric-specific tool (FORxECAST) that estimates drug quantity and cost for 18 pediatric cancers, customizable to region, regimen, cancer stage distribution, and drug price. We used adapted treatment regimens developed by the International Society of Pediatric Oncology (SIOP), supplemented with input from disease experts, to model treatment approaches reflective of health-system capabilities. FORxECAST incorporates incidence data generated through microsimulation estimates of both diagnosed and undiagnosed (total) cases. Results: We created a pediatric-specific tool (FORxECAST) that estimates drug quantity and cost for 18 pediatric cancers, customizable to region, regimen, cancer stage distribution, and drug price. We used adapted treatment regimens developed by the International Society of Pediatric Oncology (SIOP), supplemented with input from disease experts, to model treatment approaches reflective of health-system capabilities. FORxECAST incorporates incidence data generated through microsimulation estimates of both diagnosed and undiagnosed (total) cases. Conclusions: Our results enable evidence-based forecasting of childhood cancer drug need and cost to inform health system planning in a wide range of countries. The model is adaptable to setting, diagnosis, and treatment approach, allowing decision-makers to generate results specific to their context and needs. Global estimates of essential childhood cancer drug need and cost demonstrate the comparatively small amount of aggregate resources required to treat all cases worldwide, and can help advance innovative procurement strategies with regional and international scale that drive global improvements in childhood cancer drug access.

Diagnostic performance of conventional and advanced imaging modalities for assessing newly diagnosed cervical cancer: systematic review and meta-analysis

OBJECTIVES

To review the diagnostic performance of contemporary imaging modalities for determining local disease extent and nodal metastasis in patients with newly diagnosed cervical cancer.

METHODS

Pubmed and Embase databases were searched for studies published from 2000 to 2019 that used ultrasound (US), CT, MRI, and/or PET for evaluating various aspects of local extent and nodal metastasis in patients with newly diagnosed cervical cancer. Sensitivities and specificities from the studies were meta-analytically pooled using bivariate and hierarchical modeling.

RESULTS

Of 1311 studies identified in the search, 115 studies with 13,999 patients were included. MRI was the most extensively studied modality (MRI, CT, US, and PET were evaluated in 78, 12, 9, and 43 studies, respectively). Pooled sensitivities and specificities of MRI for assessing all aspects of local extent ranged between 0.71-0.88 and 0.86-0.95, respectively. In assessing parametrial invasion (PMI), US demonstrated pooled sensitivity and specificity of 0.67 and 0.94, respectively-performance levels comparable with those found for MRI. MRI, CT, and PET performed comparably for assessing nodal metastasis, with low sensitivity (0.29-0.69) but high specificity (0.88-0.98), even when stratified to anatomical location (pelvic or paraaortic) and level of analysis (per patient vs. per site).

CONCLUSIONS

MRI is the method of choice for assessing any aspect of local extent, but where not available, US could be of value, particularly for assessing PMI. CT, MRI, and PET all have high specificity but poor sensitivity for the detection of lymph node metastases.

KEY POINTS

• Magnetic resonance imaging is the method of choice for assessing local extent. • Ultrasound may be helpful in determining parametrial invasion, especially in lower-resourced countries. • Computed tomography, magnetic resonance imaging, and positron emission tomography perform similarly for assessing lymph node metastasis, with high specificity but low sensitivity.

Sustainable care for children with cancer: a Lancet Oncology Commission

We estimate that there will be 13·7 million new cases of childhood cancer globally between 2020 and 2050. At current levels of health system performance (including access and referral), 6·1 million (44·9%) of these children will be undiagnosed. Between 2020 and 2050, 11·1 million children will die from cancer if no additional investments are made to improve access to health-care services or childhood cancer treatment. Of this total, 9·3 million children (84·1%) will be in low-income and lower-middle-income countries. This burden could be vastly reduced with new funding to scale up cost-effective interventions. Simultaneous comprehensive scale-up of interventions could avert 6·2 million deaths in children with cancer in this period, more than half (56·1%) of the total number of deaths otherwise projected. Taking excess mortality risk into consideration, this reduction in the number of deaths is projected to produce a gain of 318 million life-years. In addition, the global lifetime productivity gains of US$2580 billion in 2020-50 would be four times greater than the cumulative treatment costs of $594 billion, producing a net benefit of $1986 billion on the global investment: a net return of $3 for every $1 invested. In sum, the burden of childhood cancer, which has been grossly underestimated in the past, can be effectively diminished to realise massive health and economic benefits and to avert millions of needless deaths.

Projected U.S. State-Level Prevalence of Adult Obesity and Severe Obesity

BACKGROUND

Although the national obesity epidemic has been well documented, less is known about obesity at the U.S. state level. Current estimates are based on body measures reported by persons themselves that underestimate the prevalence of obesity, especially severe obesity.

METHODS

We developed methods to correct for self-reporting bias and to estimate state-specific and demographic subgroup-specific trends and projections of the prevalence of categories of body-mass index (BMI). BMI data reported by 6,264,226 adults (18 years of age or older) who participated in the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System Survey (1993-1994 and 1999-2016) were obtained and corrected for quantile-specific self-reporting bias with the use of measured data from 57,131 adults who participated in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. We fitted multinomial regressions for each state and subgroup to estimate the prevalence of four BMI categories from 1990 through 2030: underweight or normal weight (BMI [the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters], <25), overweight (25 to <30), moderate obesity (30 to <35), and severe obesity (≥35). We evaluated the accuracy of our approach using data from 1990 through 2010 to predict 2016 outcomes.

RESULTS

The findings from our approach suggest with high predictive accuracy that by 2030 nearly 1 in 2 adults will have obesity (48.9%; 95% confidence interval [CI], 47.7 to 50.1), and the prevalence will be higher than 50% in 29 states and not below 35% in any state. Nearly 1 in 4 adults is projected to have severe obesity by 2030 (24.2%; 95% CI, 22.9 to 25.5), and the prevalence will be higher than 25% in 25 states. We predict that, nationally, severe obesity is likely to become the most common BMI category among women (27.6%; 95% CI, 26.1 to 29.2), non-Hispanic black adults (31.7%; 95% CI, 29.9 to 33.4), and low-income adults (31.7%; 95% CI, 30.2 to 33.2).

CONCLUSIONS

Our analysis indicates that the prevalence of adult obesity and severe obesity will continue to increase nationwide, with large disparities across states and demographic subgroups. (Funded by the JPB Foundation.).

Cost-Effectiveness of Water Promotion Strategies in Schools for Preventing Childhood Obesity and Increasing Water Intake

OBJECTIVE

This study aimed to estimate the cost-effectiveness and impact on childhood obesity of installation of chilled water dispensers ("water jets") on school lunch lines and to compare water jets' cost, reach, and impact on water consumption with three additional strategies.

METHODS

The Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study(CHOICES) microsimulation model estimated the cost-effectiveness of water jets on US childhood obesity cases prevented in 2025. Also estimated were the cost, number of children reached, and impact on water consumption of the installation of water jets and three other strategies.

RESULTS

Installing water jets on school lunch lines was projected to reach 29.6 million children (95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 29.4 million-29.8 million), cost $4.25 (95% UI: $2.74-$5.69) per child, prevent 179,550 cases of childhood obesity in 2025 (95% UI: 101,970-257,870), and save $0.31 in health care costs per dollar invested (95% UI: $0.15-$0.55). In the secondary analysis, installing cup dispensers next to existing water fountains was the least costly but also had the lowest population reach.

CONCLUSIONS

Installating water jet dispensers on school lunch lines could also save almost half of the dollars needed for implementation via a reduction in obesity-related health care costs. School-based interventions to promote drinking water may be relatively inexpensive strategies for improving child health.

Cost-Effectiveness Analysis and Stakeholder Evaluation of 2 Obesity Prevention Policies in Maine, US

OBJECTIVE

To evaluate the potential cost-effectiveness of and stakeholder perspectives on a sugar-sweetened beverage (SSB) excise tax and a Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP) policy that would not allow SSB purchases in Maine, US.

DESIGN

A cost-effectiveness simulation model combined with stakeholder interviews.

SETTING

Maine, US.

PARTICIPANTS

Microsimulation of the Maine population in 2015 and interviews with stakeholders (n = 14). Study conducted from 2013 to 2017.

MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES

Health care cost savings, net costs, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) from 2017 to 2027. Stakeholder positions on policies. Retail SSB cost and implementation cost data were collected.

ANALYSIS

Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost-Effectiveness Study project microsimulation model with uncertainty analysis to estimate cost-effectiveness. Thematic stakeholder interview coding.

RESULTS

Over 10 years, the SSB and SNAP policies were projected to reduce health care costs by $78.3 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI], $31.7 million-$185 million) and $15.3 million (95% UI, $8.32 million-$23.9 million), respectively. The SSB and SNAP policies were projected to save 3,560 QALYs (95% UI, 1,447-8,361) and 749 QALYs (95% UI, 415-1,168), respectively. Stakeholders were more supportive of SSB taxes than the SNAP policy because of equity concerns associated with the SNAP policy.

CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS

Cost-effectiveness analysis provided evidence of potential health improvement and cost savings to state-level stakeholders weighing broader implementation considerations.

Estimation of Eating Disorders Prevalence by Age and Associations With Mortality in a Simulated Nationally Representative US Cohort

IMPORTANCE

Eating disorders (EDs) are common psychiatric disorders associated with high mortality. However, data on ED disease dynamics and treatment coverage are sparse.

OBJECTIVES

To model the individual-level disease dynamics of ED from birth to age 40 years and to estimate the association of increased treatment coverage with ED-related mortality.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS

In this decision analytical model study, an individual-level Markov state transition model was empirically calibrated in April 2019 using a Bayesian approach to synthesize available clinical and epidemiologic ED data. The simulation model was calibrated to nationally representative US survey data from 2007 and 2011. A virtual cohort of 100 000 individuals (50 000 [50%] male) was modeled from birth to age 40 years for 4 ED diagnoses: anorexia nervosa, bulimia nervosa, binge eating disorder, and other specified feeding and eating disorders.

EXPOSURES

Age-specific ED incidence and mortality rates and background (all-cause) mortality.

MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES

The main outcomes were age-specific 12-month and lifetime ED prevalence and number of deaths per 100 000 general population individuals by age 40 years. The mean and 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) of 1000 simulations, accounting for stochastic and parameter uncertainty, are reported.

RESULTS

The highest estimated mean annual prevalence of ED occurred at approximately age 21 years for both male individuals (7.4%; 95% UI, 3.5%-11.5%) and female individuals (10.3%; 95% UI, 7.0%-14.2%), with lifetime mean prevalence estimates increasing to 14.3% (95% UI, 9.7%-19.0%) for male individuals and 19.7% (95% UI, 15.8%-23.9%) for female individuals by age 40 years. Ninety-five percent of first-time cases occurred by age 25 years. Current treatment coverage averts an estimated mean of 41.7 deaths per 100 000 people (95% UI, 13.0-82.0 deaths per 100 000 people) by age 40 years, whereas increasing treatment coverage for all patients with ED could avert an estimated mean of 70.5 deaths per 100 000 people by age 40 years (95% UI, 26.0-143.0 deaths per 100 000 people).

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE

In this simulation modeling study, the estimated lifetime prevalence of ED was high, with approximately 1 in 7 male and 1 in 5 female individuals having an ED by age 40 years. The initial onset of EDs was highly concentrated during adolescence and young adulthood, suggesting that this is a critical period for prevention efforts. However, the high estimated prevalence of recurring ED later in life highlights the importance of identification and treatment of ED at older ages as well. These findings suggest that increasing treatment coverage could substantially reduce ED-related mortality.

Cost-effectiveness of screening guidelines to prevent heart failure in childhood cancer survivors: A report from the Childhood Cancer Survivor Study (CCSS)

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Background: Childhood cancer survivors treated with anthracyclines or chest radiation therapy (RT) are at risk for left ventricular dysfunction (LVD) and subsequent heart failure (HF). The International Guideline Harmonization Group (IGHG) recommends risk-based screening echocardiograms for LVD, but evidence supporting its frequency and cost-effectiveness is limited. Methods: Using data from the CCSS, we developed a microsimulation model of the clinical course of LVD and HF to estimate long-term health and economic outcomes associated with screening for IGHG-defined risk groups (low [anthracycline 1-99 mg/m2 and/or RT < 15 Gy], moderate [100 to < 250 mg/m2 or 15 to < 35 Gy], high [≥ 250 mg/m2 or ≥ 35 Gy or (≥ 100 mg/m2 and ≥ 15 Gy)]). We compared 1, 2, and 5-year interval-based screening to no screening. Screening performance and pharmacological treatment effectiveness were based on published studies. Costs and quality of life weights were based on US averages and published studies. Outcomes included lifetime HF risk, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), lifetime costs, and incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs). Strategies with ICERs < $100,000/QALY gained were considered cost-effective. Results: Among the IGHG risk groups, the lifetime HF risk in the absence of screening was 37% (high), 25% (moderate) and 17% (low). Screening every 2 or 5 years was cost-effective for the high-risk group, and every 5 years for the moderate-risk group. In contrast, routine screening may not be cost-effective for the low risk group, representing ~40% of those for whom screening is currently recommended. Conclusions: Our findings can inform screening guidelines and suggest that LVD/HF surveillance for low-risk survivors warrants careful consideration. [Table: see text]

Simulation of Growth Trajectories of Childhood Obesity into Adulthood

BACKGROUND

Although the current obesity epidemic has been well documented in children and adults, less is known about long-term risks of adult obesity for a given child at his or her present age and weight. We developed a simulation model to estimate the risk of adult obesity at the age of 35 years for the current population of children in the United States.

METHODS

We pooled height and weight data from five nationally representative longitudinal studies totaling 176,720 observations from 41,567 children and adults. We simulated growth trajectories across the life course and adjusted for secular trends. We created 1000 virtual populations of 1 million children through the age of 19 years that were representative of the 2016 population of the United States and projected their trajectories in height and weight up to the age of 35 years. Severe obesity was defined as a body-mass index (BMI, the weight in kilograms divided by the square of the height in meters) of 35 or higher in adults and 120% or more of the 95th percentile in children.

RESULTS

Given the current level of childhood obesity, the models predicted that a majority of today's children (57.3%; 95% uncertainly interval [UI], 55.2 to 60.0) will be obese at the age of 35 years, and roughly half of the projected prevalence will occur during childhood. Our simulations indicated that the relative risk of adult obesity increased with age and BMI, from 1.17 (95% UI, 1.09 to 1.29) for overweight 2-year-olds to 3.10 (95% UI, 2.43 to 3.65) for 19-year-olds with severe obesity. For children with severe obesity, the chance they will no longer be obese at the age of 35 years fell from 21.0% (95% UI, 7.3 to 47.3) at the age of 2 years to 6.1% (95% UI, 2.1 to 9.9) at the age of 19 years.

CONCLUSIONS

On the basis of our simulation models, childhood obesity and overweight will continue to be a major health problem in the United States. Early development of obesity predicted obesity in adulthood, especially for children who were severely obese. (Funded by the JPB Foundation and others.).

Cost-Effectiveness of a Clinical Childhood Obesity Intervention

OBJECTIVES

To estimate the cost-effectiveness and population impact of the national implementation of the Study of Technology to Accelerate Research (STAR) intervention for childhood obesity.

METHODS

In the STAR cluster-randomized trial, 6- to 12-year-old children with obesity seen at pediatric practices with electronic health record (EHR)-based decision support for primary care providers and self-guided behavior-change support for parents had significantly smaller increases in BMI than children who received usual care. We used a microsimulation model of a national implementation of STAR from 2015 to 2025 among all pediatric primary care providers in the United States with fully functional EHRs to estimate cost, impact on obesity prevalence, and cost-effectiveness.

RESULTS

The expected population reach of a 10-year national implementation is ∼2 million children, with intervention costs of $119 per child and $237 per BMI unit reduced. At 10 years, assuming maintenance of effect, the intervention is expected to avert 43 000 cases and 226 000 life-years with obesity at a net cost of $4085 per case and $774 per life-year with obesity averted. Limiting implementation to large practices and using higher estimates of EHR adoption improved both cost-effectiveness and reach, whereas decreasing the maintenance of the intervention's effect worsened the former.

CONCLUSIONS

A childhood obesity intervention with electronic decision support for clinicians and self-guided behavior-change support for parents may be more cost-effective than previous clinical interventions. Effective and efficient interventions that target children with obesity are necessary and could work in synergy with population-level prevention strategies to accelerate progress in reducing obesity prevalence.

Using cost-effectiveness analysis to prioritize policy and programmatic approaches to physical activity promotion and obesity prevention in childhood

Participation in recommended levels of physical activity promotes a healthy body weight and reduced chronic disease risk. To inform investment in prevention initiatives, we simulate the national implementation, impact on physical activity and childhood obesity and associated cost-effectiveness (versus the status quo) of six recommended strategies that can be applied throughout childhood to increase physical activity in US school, afterschool and childcare settings. In 2016, the Childhood Obesity Intervention Cost Effectiveness Study (CHOICES) systematic review process identified six interventions for study. A microsimulation model estimated intervention outcomes 2015-2025 including changes in mean MET-hours/day, intervention reach and cost per person, cost per MET-hour change, ten-year net costs to society and cases of childhood obesity prevented. First year reach of the interventions ranged from 90,000 youth attending a Healthy Afterschool Program to 31.3 million youth reached by Active School Day policies. Mean MET-hour/day/person increases ranged from 0.05 MET-hour/day/person for Active PE and Healthy Afterschool to 1.29 MET-hour/day/person for the implementation of New Afterschool Programs. Cost per MET-hour change ranged from cost saving to $3.14. Approximately 2500 to 110,000 cases of children with obesity could be prevented depending on the intervention implemented. All of the six interventions are estimated to increase physical activity levels among children and adolescents in the US population and prevent cases of childhood obesity. Results do not include other impacts of increased physical activity, including cognitive and behavioral effects. Decision-makers can use these methods to inform prioritization of physical activity promotion and obesity prevention on policy agendas.

Severe Obesity In Adults Cost State Medicaid Programs Nearly $8 Billion In 2013

Efforts to expand Medicaid while controlling spending must be informed by a deeper understanding of the extent to which the high medical costs associated with severe obesity (having a body mass index of [Formula: see text] or higher) determine spending at the state level. Our analysis of population-representative data indicates that in 2013, severe obesity cost the nation approximately $69 billion, which accounted for 60 percent of total obesity-related costs. Approximately 11 percent of the cost of severe obesity was paid for by Medicaid, 30 percent by Medicare and other federal health programs, 27 percent by private health plans, and 30 percent out of pocket. Overall, severe obesity cost state Medicaid programs almost $8 billion a year, ranging from $5 million in Wyoming to $1.3 billion in California. These costs are likely to increase following Medicaid expansion and enhanced coverage of weight loss therapies in the form of nutrition consultation, drug therapy, and bariatric surgery. Ensuring and expanding Medicaid-eligible populations' access to cost-effective treatment for severe obesity should be part of each state's strategy to mitigate rising obesity-related health care costs.