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Hossain MP, Zhou W, Leung MYT, Yuan HY. Association of air pollution and weather conditions during infection course with COVID-19 case fatality rate in the United Kingdom. Sci Rep 2024; 14:683. [PMID: 38182658 PMCID: PMC10770173 DOI: 10.1038/s41598-023-50474-w] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/25/2023] [Accepted: 12/20/2023] [Indexed: 01/07/2024] Open
Abstract
Although the relationship between the environmental factors, such as weather conditions and air pollution, and COVID-19 case fatality rate (CFR) has been found, the impacts of these factors to which infected cases are exposed at different infectious stages (e.g., virus exposure time, incubation period, and at or after symptom onset) are still unknown. Understanding this link can help reduce mortality rates. During the first wave of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom (UK), the CFR varied widely between and among the four countries of the UK, allowing such differential impacts to be assessed. We developed a generalized linear mixed-effect model combined with distributed lag nonlinear models to estimate the odds ratio of the weather factors (i.e., temperature, sunlight, relative humidity, and rainfall) and air pollution (i.e., ozone, [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text], [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text]) using data between March 26, 2020 and September 15, 2020 in the UK. After retrospectively time adjusted CFR was estimated using back-projection technique, the stepwise model selection method was used to choose the best model based on Akaike information criteria and the closeness between the predicted and observed values of CFR. The risk of death reached its maximum level when the low temperature (6 °C) occurred 1 day before (OR 1.59; 95% CI 1.52-1.63), prolonged sunlight duration (11-14 h) 3 days after (OR 1.24; 95% CI 1.18-1.30) and increased [Formula: see text] (19 μg/m3) 1 day after the onset of symptom (OR 1.12; 95% CI 1.09-1.16). After reopening, many COVID-19 cases will be identified after their symptoms appear. The findings highlight the importance of designing different preventive measures against severe illness or death considering the time before and after symptom onset.
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Affiliation(s)
- M Pear Hossain
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- WHO Collaborating Centre for Infectious Disease Epidemiology and Control, School of Public Health, Li Ka Shing Faculty of Medicine, The University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
- Laboratory of Data Discovery for Health Limited, Hong Kong Science Park, New Territories, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China
| | - Wen Zhou
- Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences and Institute of Atmospheric Sciences, Fudan University, Shanghai, China
| | - Marco Y T Leung
- School of Marine Sciences, Sun Yat-Sen University, Guangzhou, China
| | - Hsiang-Yu Yuan
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, China.
- Centre for Applied One Health Research and Policy Advice, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon, Hong Kong Special Administrative Regions, China.
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Al-Khateeb MS, Abdulla FA, Al-Delaimy WK. Long-term spatiotemporal analysis of the climate related impact on the transmission rate of COVID-19. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 236:116741. [PMID: 37500034 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.116741] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/22/2023] [Revised: 07/06/2023] [Accepted: 07/24/2023] [Indexed: 07/29/2023]
Abstract
BACKGROUND The association between weather conditions and the spread of COVID-19 was demonstrated by previous studies but focused on specific countries or investigated shorter periods of duration limiting the interpretation of the results. AIM To make an international comprehensive insight into the association between the weather conditions and the spread of COVID-19 by spanning many regions in the Northern and Southern hemispheres over a period of two years for the COVID-19 Outbreak. METHODS The data were analyzed by using statistical description, linear and multiple regressions, and the Spearman rank correlation test. Daily and weekly COVID-19 cases, the average temperatures, Wind Speed, the amount of precipitation as well as the relative humidity rates were collected from Irbid, Jordan as the main location of analyses, as well as comparison cities and countries in both hemispheres. RESULTS we found that certain climate variables are significant factors in determining the transmission rate of COVID-19 worldwide. Where, The temperature in the northern hemisphere regions was the most important climate factor that affects the increase in the transmission rate of COVID-19 (Northern Hemisphere rs = -0.65; Irbid rs = -0.74995; P < 0.001), While in southern hemisphere, the climate factor that affects the increase in the transmission rate of COVID-19 was the humidity (rs = 0.55; P < 0.01), In addition, we found the negligible and oscillated effect of wind speed on the transmission rate of COVID-19 worldwide. Moreover, we found that in Irbid 82% of COVID-19 cases were in the fall and winter seasons, while in summer the percentage of COVID-19 cases didn't exceed 3% during the total study period. CONCLUSION This study can help develop international strategies and policies against COVID-19-related pandemic peaks, especially during the colder seasons in the Northern Hemisphere regions from the first month of fall to the last month of winter.
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Affiliation(s)
- Mohammed S Al-Khateeb
- Civil Engineering Department, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan.
| | - Fayez A Abdulla
- Civil Engineering Department, Jordan University of Science and Technology, Irbid, Jordan
| | - Wael K Al-Delaimy
- Wertheim School of Public Health and Human Longevity Science, University of California San Diego: San Diego, CA, USA
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Xu S, Li H, Wang J, Lu L, Dai Z. Relationship between meteorological factors and mortality in patients with coronavirus disease 2019: A cross-sectional study. Heliyon 2023; 9:e18565. [PMID: 37576230 PMCID: PMC10412992 DOI: 10.1016/j.heliyon.2023.e18565] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/19/2023] [Revised: 07/16/2023] [Accepted: 07/20/2023] [Indexed: 08/15/2023] Open
Abstract
Background Recent studies on COVID-19 have demonstrated that poverty, comorbidities, race/ethnicity, population density, mobility, hygiene and use of masks are some of the important correlates of COVID-19 outcomes. In fact, weather conditions also play an important role in enhancing or eradicating health issues. Based on Chinese experience, the development of SARS and COVID-19 is partially associated with alterations in climate that align with the seasonal shifts of the "24 solar terms." However, the applicability of this pattern to other countries, particularly the United States, which has the highest global incidence and mortality rates, remains subject to ongoing investigation. We need to find more evidence to in the U.S. states verify the relationship between meteorological factors and COVID-19 outcomes to provide epidemiological and environmental support for the COVID-19 pandemic prevention and resource preservation. Objective To evaluate the relationship between meteorological factors and Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality. Methods We conducted an ecological cross-sectional study to evaluate the relationship between meteorological factors (maximum temperature, minimum temperature, humidity, wind speed, precipitation, atmospheric pressure) and COVID-19 mortality. This retrospective observational study examines mortality rates among COVID-19 patients in the three US states, California, Texas, and New York, with the highest fatality numbers, between March 7, 2020 and March 7, 2021. The study draws upon data sourced from the publicly accessible Dryad database. The daily corresponding meteorological conditions were retrieved from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Global Meteorological website (https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/maps/hourly/). This study employed multivariate linear regression analysis to assess the correlation between six meteorological factors and COVID-19 mortality. Gaussian distribution models were utilized to generate smooth curves for examining the linear association between maximum or minimum temperature and mortality. Additionally, breakpoint analysis was conducted to evaluate the threshold effect of temperature. Results We found that the death toll of patients with COVID-19 decreased with an increase in the highest and lowest ambient temperatures (p < 0.001). In our study, we observed a seasonal difference in mortality rates, with a higher number of deaths occurring during winter months, particularly in January and February. However, mortality rates decreased significantly in March. Notably, we found no statistically significant correlation between relative humidity, average precipitation, and average wind speed with COVID-19 mortality (all p > 0.05). Daily COVID-19 death was negatively correlated with the maximum temperature (β = -22, 95% CI, -26.2 to -17.79 -, p < 0.01), while the maximum temperature was below 30 °C. Similarly, the number of deaths was negatively correlated with the minimum temperature (β = -27.46, 95% CI, -31.48 to -23.45, p < 0.01), when the minimum temperature was below 8 °C. Our study found a significant association between temperature and COVID-19 mortality, with every 1 °C increase in maximum or minimum temperature resulting in a decrease of 22 and 27 deceased cases, respectively. The relationship between atmospheric pressure and COVID-19 mortality was not fully elucidated due to its complex interaction with maximum temperature. Conclusions This empirical study adds to the existing body of research on the impact of climate factors on COVID-19 prevention and resource allocation. Policymakers and health scientists may find these findings useful in conjunction with other social factors when making decisions related to COVID-19 prevention and resource allocation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shanshan Xu
- Office of Infection Management, Jiangsu Province Hospital of Chinese Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210029, China
| | - Haibo Li
- Division of Birth Cohort Study, Fujian Maternity and Child Health Hospital, College of Clinical Medicine for Obstetrics & Gynecology and Pediatrics, Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, Fujian, 350001, China
| | - Juan Wang
- Musculoskeletal Pain Rehabilitation Department, The Fifth Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan, 450002, China
| | - Lin Lu
- Department of Trade Union, Jiangsu Province Hospital of Chinese Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210029, China
| | - Zhengxiang Dai
- Office of Infection Management, Jiangsu Province Hospital of Chinese Medicine, Affiliated Hospital of Nanjing University of Chinese Medicine, Nanjing, Jiangsu, 210029, China
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Zoran MA, Savastru RS, Savastru DM, Tautan MN. Peculiar weather patterns effects on air pollution and COVID-19 spread in Tokyo metropolis. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2023; 228:115907. [PMID: 37080275 PMCID: PMC10111861 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2023.115907] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/08/2023] [Revised: 04/11/2023] [Accepted: 04/12/2023] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
As a pandemic hotspot in Japan, between March 1, 2020-October 1, 2022, Tokyo metropolis experienced seven COVID-19 waves. Motivated by the high rate of COVID-19 incidence and mortality during the seventh wave, and environmental/health challenges we conducted a time-series analysis to investigate the long-term interaction of air quality and climate variability with viral pandemic in Tokyo. Through daily time series geospatial and observational air pollution/climate data, and COVID-19 incidence and death cases, this study compared the environmental conditions during COVID-19 multiwaves. In spite of five State of Emergency (SOEs) restrictions associated with COVID-19 pandemic, during (2020-2022) period air quality recorded low improvements relative to (2015-2019) average annual values, namely: Aerosol Optical Depth increased by 9.13% in 2020 year, and declined by 6.64% in 2021, and 12.03% in 2022; particulate matter PM2.5 and PM10 decreased during 2020, 2021, and 2022 years by 10.22%, 62.26%, 0.39%, and respectively by 4.42%, 3.95%, 5.76%. For (2021-2022) period the average ratio of PM2.5/PM10 was (0.319 ± 0.1640), showing a higher contribution to aerosol loading of traffic-related coarse particles in comparison with fine particles. The highest rates of the daily recorded COVID-19 incidence and death cases in Tokyo during the seventh COVID-19 wave (1 July 2022-1 October 2022) may be attributed to accumulation near the ground of high levels of air pollutants and viral pathogens due to: 1) peculiar persistent atmospheric anticyclonic circulation with strong positive anomalies of geopotential height at 500 hPa; 2) lower levels of Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL) heights; 3) high daily maximum air temperature and land surface temperature due to the prolonged heat waves (HWs) in summer 2022; 4) no imposed restrictions. Such findings can guide public decision-makers to design proper strategies to curb pandemics under persistent stable anticyclonic weather conditions and summer HWs in large metropolitan areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria A Zoran
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania.
| | - Roxana S Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Dan M Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Marina N Tautan
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
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Moazeni M, Rahimi M, Ebrahimi A. What are the Effects of Climate Variables on COVID-19 Pandemic? A Systematic Review and Current Update. Adv Biomed Res 2023; 12:33. [PMID: 37057247 PMCID: PMC10086649 DOI: 10.4103/abr.abr_145_21] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/30/2021] [Revised: 01/05/2022] [Accepted: 01/19/2022] [Indexed: 04/15/2023] Open
Abstract
The climatological parameters can be different in various geographical locations. Moreover, they have possible impacts on COVID-19 incidence. Therefore, the purpose of this systematic review article was to describe the effects of climatic variables on COVID-19 pandemic in different countries. Systematic literature search was performed in Scopus, ISI Web of Science, and PubMed databases using ("Climate" OR "Climate Change" OR "Global Warming" OR "Global Climate Change" OR "Meteorological Parameters" OR "Temperature" OR "Precipitation" OR "Relative Humidity" OR "Wind Speed" OR "Sunshine" OR "Climate Extremes" OR "Weather Extremes") AND ("COVID" OR "Coronavirus disease 2019" OR "COVID-19" OR "SARS-CoV-2" OR "Novel Coronavirus") keywords. From 5229 articles, 424 were screened and 149 were selected for further analysis. The relationship between meteorological parameters is variable in different geographical locations. The results indicate that among the climatic indicators, the temperature is the most significant factor that influences on COVID-19 pandemic in most countries. Some studies were proved that warm and wet climates can decrease COVID-19 incidence; however, the other studies represented that warm location can be a high risk of COVID-19 incidence. It could be suggested that all climate variables such as temperature, humidity, rainfall, precipitation, solar radiation, ultraviolet index, and wind speed could cause spread of COVID-19. Thus, it is recommended that future studies will survey the role of all meteorological variables and interaction between them on COVID-19 spread in specific small areas such as cities of each country and comparison between them.
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Affiliation(s)
- Malihe Moazeni
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
- Student Research Committee, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
| | - Mohammad Rahimi
- Department of Combat Desertification, Faculty of Desert Studies, Semnan University, Semnan, Iran
| | - Afshin Ebrahimi
- Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
- Environment Research Center, Research Institute for Primordial Prevention of Non-Communicable Disease, Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, Iran
- Address for correspondence: Dr. Afshin Ebrahimi, Department of Environmental Health Engineering, School of Health, Hezar-Jerib Ave., Isfahan University of Medical Sciences, Isfahan, 81676 − 36954, Iran. E-mail:
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6
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Yang Y, Lu Y, Jiang B. Population-weighted exposure to green spaces tied to lower COVID-19 mortality rates: A nationwide dose-response study in the USA. THE SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 2022; 851:158333. [PMID: 36041607 PMCID: PMC9420198 DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2022.158333] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/22/2022] [Revised: 08/23/2022] [Accepted: 08/23/2022] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
The COVID-19 pandemic has caused a huge loss of human life globally. However, few studies investigated the link between exposure to green space and risk of COVID-19 mortality rate, while also distinguishing the effects of various types of green space, considering the spatial distribution of human population and green space, and identifying the optimal buffer distances of nearby green space. It is critical and pressing to fill these significant knowledge gaps to protect and promote billions of people's health and life across the world. This study adopted a negative binomial generalized linear mixed-effects model to examine the association between the ratios of various types of green space, population-weighted exposure to those various types of green space, and COVID-19 mortality rates across 3025 counties in the USA, adjusted for sociodemographic, pre-existing chronic disease, policy and regulation, behavioral, and environmental factors. The findings show that greater exposure to forest was associated with lower COVID-19 mortality rates, while developed open space had mixed associations with COVID-19 mortality rates. Forest outside park had the largest effect size across all buffer distances, followed by forest inside park. The optimal exposure buffer distance was 1 km for forest outside park, with per one-unit of increase in exposure associated with a 9.9 % decrease in COVID-19 mortality rates (95 % confidence interval (CI): 6.9 %-12.8 %). The optimal exposure buffer distance of forest inside park was 400 m, with per one-unit of increase in exposure associated with a 4.7 % decrease in mortality rates (95 % CI: 2.4 %-6.9 %). The results suggest that greater exposure to green spaces, especially to nearby forests, may mitigate the risk of COVID-19 mortality. Although findings of an ecological study cannot be directly used to guide medical interventions, this study may pave a critical new way for future research and practice across multiple disciplines.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yuwen Yang
- Urban Environments and Human Health Lab, HKUrbanLabs, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR; Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR
| | - Yi Lu
- Department of Architecture and Civil Engineering, College of Engineering, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR
| | - Bin Jiang
- Urban Environments and Human Health Lab, HKUrbanLabs, Faculty of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR; Division of Landscape Architecture, Department of Architecture, The University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong SAR.
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Zoran MA, Savastru RS, Savastru DM, Tautan MN. Cumulative effects of air pollution and climate drivers on COVID-19 multiwaves in Bucharest, Romania. PROCESS SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION : TRANSACTIONS OF THE INSTITUTION OF CHEMICAL ENGINEERS, PART B 2022; 166:368-383. [PMID: 36034108 PMCID: PMC9391082 DOI: 10.1016/j.psep.2022.08.042] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/19/2022] [Revised: 08/12/2022] [Accepted: 08/16/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
Over more than two years of global health crisis due to ongoing COVID-19 pandemic, Romania experienced a five-wave pattern. This study aims to assess the potential impact of environmental drivers on COVID-19 transmission in Bucharest, capital of Romania during the analyzed epidemic period. Through descriptive statistics and cross-correlation tests applied to time series of daily observational and geospatial data of major outdoor inhalable particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter ≤ 2.5 µm (PM2.5) or ≤ 10 µm (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone (O3), sulfur dioxide (SO2), carbon monoxide (CO), Aerosol Optical Depth at 550 nm (AOD) and radon (222Rn), we investigated the COVID-19 waves patterns under different meteorological conditions. This study examined the contribution of individual climate variables on the ground level air pollutants concentrations and COVID-19 disease severity. As compared to the long-term average AOD over Bucharest from 2015 to 2019, for the same year periods, this study revealed major AOD level reduction by ~28 % during the spring lockdown of the first COVID-19 wave (15 March 2020-15 May 2020), and ~16 % during the third COVID-19 wave (1 February 2021-1 June 2021). This study found positive correlations between exposure to air pollutants PM2.5, PM10, NO2, SO2, CO and 222Rn, and significant negative correlations, especially for spring-summer periods between ground O3 levels, air temperature, Planetary Boundary Layer height, and surface solar irradiance with COVID-19 incidence and deaths. For the analyzed time period 1 January 2020-1 April 2022, before and during each COVID-19 wave were recorded stagnant synoptic anticyclonic conditions favorable for SARS-CoV-2 virus spreading, with positive Omega surface charts composite average (Pa/s) at 850 mb during fall- winter seasons, clearly evidenced for the second, the fourth and the fifth waves. These findings are relevant for viral infections controls and health safety strategies design in highly polluted urban environments.
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Key Words
- 222Rn
- 222Rn, Radon
- AOD, Total Aerosol Optical Depth at 550 nm
- Aerosol Optical Depth (AOD)
- CAMS, Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service
- CO, Carbon monoxide
- COVID, 19 Coronavirus Disease 2019
- COVID-19 disease
- Climate variables
- DNC, Daily New COVID-19 positive cases
- DND, Daily New COVID-19 Deaths
- MERS, CoV Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus
- NO2, Nitrogen dioxide
- NOAA, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration U.S.A.
- O3, Ozone
- Outdoor air pollutants
- PBL, Planetary Boundary Layer height
- PM, Particulate Matter: PM1(1 µm), PM2.5 (2.5 µm) and PM10(10.0 µm) diameter
- RH, Air relative humidity
- SARS, CoV Severe Outdoor Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus
- SARS, CoV-2 Severe Outdoor Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2
- SI, Surface solar global irradiance
- SO2, Sulfur dioxide
- Synoptic meteorological circulation
- T, Air temperature at 2 m height
- p, Air pressure
- w, Wind speed intensity
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria A Zoran
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele, Bucharest 077125, Romania
| | - Roxana S Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele, Bucharest 077125, Romania
| | - Dan M Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele, Bucharest 077125, Romania
| | - Marina N Tautan
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele, Bucharest 077125, Romania
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Zoran MA, Savastru RS, Savastru DM, Tautan MN. Impacts of exposure to air pollution, radon and climate drivers on the COVID-19 pandemic in Bucharest, Romania: A time series study. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 212:113437. [PMID: 35594963 PMCID: PMC9113773 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.113437] [Citation(s) in RCA: 3] [Impact Index Per Article: 1.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 01/11/2022] [Revised: 05/03/2022] [Accepted: 05/04/2022] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
During the ongoing global COVID-19 pandemic disease, like several countries, Romania experienced a multiwaves pattern over more than two years. The spreading pattern of SARS-CoV-2 pathogens in the Bucharest, capital of Romania is a multi-factorial process involving among other factors outdoor environmental variables and viral inactivation. Through descriptive statistics and cross-correlation analysis applied to daily time series of observational and geospatial data, this study aims to evaluate the synergy of COVID-19 incidence and lethality with air pollution and radon under different climate conditions, which may exacerbate the coronavirus' effect on human health. During the entire analyzed period 1 January 2020-21 December 2021, for each of the four COVID-19 waves were recorded different anomalous anticyclonic synoptic meteorological patterns in the mid-troposphere, and favorable stability conditions during fall-early winter seasons for COVID-19 disease fast-spreading, mostly during the second, and the fourth waves. As the temporal pattern of airborne SARS-CoV-2 and its mutagen variants is affected by seasonal variability of the main air pollutants and climate parameters, this paper found: 1) the daily outdoor exposures to air pollutants (particulate matter PM2.5 and PM10, nitrogen dioxide-NO2, sulfur dioxide-SO2, carbon monoxide-CO) and radon - 222Rn, are directly correlated with the daily COVID-19 incidence and mortality, and may contribute to the spread and the severity of the pandemic; 2) the daily ground ozone-O3 levels, air temperature, Planetary Boundary Layer height, and surface solar irradiance are anticorrelated with the daily new COVID-19 incidence and deaths, averageingful for spring-summer periods. Outdoor exposure to ambient air pollution associated with radon is a non-negligible driver of COVID-19 transmission in large metropolitan areas, and climate variables are risk factors in spreading the viral infection. The findings of this study provide useful information for public health authorities and decision-makers to develop future pandemic diseases strategies in high polluted metropolitan environments.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria A Zoran
- National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Bucharest, Magurele, Romania.
| | - Roxana S Savastru
- National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Bucharest, Magurele, Romania
| | - Dan M Savastru
- National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Bucharest, Magurele, Romania
| | - Marina N Tautan
- National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Bucharest, Magurele, Romania
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Liang J, Yuan HY. Assessing the impact of temperature and humidity exposures during early infection stages on case-fatality of COVID-19: A modelling study in Europe. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 211:112931. [PMID: 35217008 PMCID: PMC8860752 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2022.112931] [Citation(s) in RCA: 4] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 09/26/2021] [Revised: 01/09/2022] [Accepted: 02/07/2022] [Indexed: 05/26/2023]
Abstract
Background Although associations between key weather indicators (i.e. temperature and humidity) and COVID-19 mortality have been reported, the relationship between these exposures at different timings in early infection stages (from virus exposure up to a few days after symptom onset) and the probability of death after infection (also called case fatality rate, CFR) has yet to be determined. Methods We estimated the instantaneous CFR of eight European countries using Bayesian inference in conjunction with stochastic transmission models, taking account of delays in reporting the number of newly confirmed cases and deaths. The exposure-lag-response associations between fatality rate and weather conditions to which patients were exposed at different timings were obtained using distributed lag nonlinear models coupled with mixed-effect models. Results Our results show that the Odds Ratio (OR) of death is negatively associated with the temperature, with two maxima (OR = 1.29 (95% CI: 1.23, 1.35) at -0.1°C; OR = 1.12 (95% CI: 1.08, 1.16) at 0.1°C) occurring at the time of virus exposure and after symptom onset. Two minima (OR = 0.81 (95% CI: 0.71, 0.92) at 23.2°C; OR = 0.71 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.80) at 21.7°C) also occurred at these two distinct periods correspondingly. Low humidity (below 50%) during the early stages and high humidity (approximately 89%) after symptom onset were related to the lower fatality. Conclusion Environmental conditions may affect not only the initial viral load when patients are exposed to the virus, but also individuals' immune response around symptom onset. Warmer temperatures and higher humidity after symptom onset were linked to lower fatality.
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Affiliation(s)
- Jingbo Liang
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong
| | - Hsiang-Yu Yuan
- Department of Biomedical Sciences, Jockey Club College of Veterinary Medicine and Life Sciences, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong; Centre for Applied One Health Research and Policy Advice, City University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong.
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10
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Sciannameo V, Goffi A, Maffeis G, Gianfreda R, Jahier Pagliari D, Filippini T, Mancuso P, Giorgi-Rossi P, Alberto Dal Zovo L, Corbari A, Vinceti M, Berchialla P. A deep learning approach for Spatio-Temporal forecasting of new cases and new hospital admissions of COVID-19 spread in Reggio Emilia, Northern Italy. J Biomed Inform 2022; 132:104132. [PMID: 35835438 PMCID: PMC9271423 DOI: 10.1016/j.jbi.2022.104132] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/09/2021] [Revised: 04/24/2022] [Accepted: 07/03/2022] [Indexed: 12/23/2022]
Abstract
Background Since February 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic has rapidly spread throughout Italy. Some studies showed an association of environmental factors, such as PM10, PM2.5, NO2, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, solar radiation and mobility with the spread of the epidemic. In this work, we aimed to predict via Deep Learning the real-time transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the province of Reggio Emilia, Northern Italy, in a grid with a small resolution (12 km × 12 km), including satellite information. Methods We focused on the Province of Reggio Emilia, which was severely hit by the first wave of the epidemic. The outcomes included new SARS-CoV-2 infections and COVID-19 hospital admissions. Pollution, meteorological and mobility data were analyzed. The spatial simulation domain included the Province of Reggio Emilia in a grid of 40 cells of (12 km)2. We implemented a ConvLSTM, which is a spatio-temporal deep learning approach, to perform a 7-day moving average to forecast the 7th day after. We used as training and validation set the new daily infections and hospital admissions from August 2020 to March 2021. Finally, we assessed the models in terms of Mean Absolute Error (MAE) compared with Mean Observed Value (MOV) and Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) on data from April to September 2021. We tested the performance of different combinations of input variables to find the best forecast model. Findings Daily new cases of infection, mobility and wind speed resulted in being strongly predictive of new COVID-19 hospital admissions (MAE = 2.72 in the Province of Reggio Emilia; MAE = 0.62 in Reggio Emilia city), whereas daily new cases, mobility, solar radiation and PM2.5 turned out to be the best predictors to forecast new infections, with appropriate time lags. Interpretation ConvLSTM achieved good performances in forecasting new SARS-CoV-2 infections and new COVID-19 hospital admissions. The spatio-temporal representation allows borrowing strength from data neighboring to forecast at the level of the square cell (12 km)2, getting accurate predictions also at the county level, which is paramount to help optimise the real-time allocation of health care resources during an epidemic emergency.
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Affiliation(s)
- Veronica Sciannameo
- University of Padova, Unit of Biostatistics, Epidemiology and Public Health, Department of Cardiac, Thoracic, Vascular Sciences and Public Health, Italy
| | - Alessia Goffi
- TerrAria s.r.l, Via Melchiorre Gioia, 132, 20125 Milan, Italy
| | | | | | | | - Tommaso Filippini
- Environmental, Genetic and Nutritional Epidemiology Research Center (CREAGEN), Section of Public Health, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via Campi 287, 41125 Modena, Italy
| | - Pamela Mancuso
- Epidemiology Unit, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale-Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico di Reggio Emilia, 42123 Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | - Paolo Giorgi-Rossi
- Epidemiology Unit, Azienda Unità Sanitaria Locale-Istituto di Ricovero e Cura a Carattere Scientifico di Reggio Emilia, 42123 Reggio Emilia, Italy
| | | | - Angela Corbari
- Studiomapp s.r.l., Via Pietro Alighieri, 43, 48121 Ravenna, Italy
| | - Marco Vinceti
- Environmental, Genetic and Nutritional Epidemiology Research Center (CREAGEN), Section of Public Health, Department of Biomedical, Metabolic and Neural Sciences, University of Modena and Reggio Emilia, Via Campi 287, 41125 Modena, Italy; Department of Epidemiology, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, Massachusetts, USA
| | - Paola Berchialla
- University of Torino, Department of Clinical and Biological Sciences, Italy.
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11
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Juneja N, Grover A, Kaur H, Singh M, Sheetal A. Environmental Factors Affecting Covid-19 Dynamics: A Study in Bengaluru City of Karnataka State of India. WIRELESS PERSONAL COMMUNICATIONS 2022; 126:859-870. [PMID: 35756170 PMCID: PMC9208355 DOI: 10.1007/s11277-022-09773-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Accepted: 05/08/2022] [Indexed: 06/15/2023]
Abstract
The horrifying and fast spreading COVID-19 pandemic has shocked India and in fact the entire world to its core. Indian Government has taken all the possible preventive steps to contain the wider spread of this highly contagious disease but the second wave in the month of April, 2021 has turned this strong country in a helpless position. In this paper, the effect of environmental factors like temperature and air quality index on the new confirmed cases along with recovered cases has been seen in Bengaluru Urban district of Karnataka State of India. Regression analysis has been carried out with the help of SPSS software. The outcomes from the paper will definitely give some valuable insights for the researchers around the world in their future combat measures.
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Affiliation(s)
- Nishant Juneja
- Department of Mathematics, Dev Samaj College for Women, Ferozepur, Punjab India
| | - Amit Grover
- Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering, Shaheed Bhagat Singh State University, Ferozepur, Punjab India
| | - Harleen Kaur
- Department of Chemistry, Dev Samaj College for Women, Ferozepur, Punjab India
| | - Mehtab Singh
- Department of Electronics and Communication Engineering, University Institute of Engineering, Chandigarh University, Mohali, Punjab India
| | - Anu Sheetal
- Department of Engineering and Technology, Guru Nanak Dev University, Regional Campus, Gurdaspur, Punjab India
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12
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Sun C, Chao L, Li H, Hu Z, Zheng H, Li Q. Modeling and Preliminary Analysis of the Impact of Meteorological Conditions on the COVID-19 Epidemic. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH AND PUBLIC HEALTH 2022; 19:6125. [PMID: 35627661 PMCID: PMC9140896 DOI: 10.3390/ijerph19106125] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 04/23/2022] [Revised: 05/15/2022] [Accepted: 05/16/2022] [Indexed: 01/27/2023]
Abstract
Since the COVID-19 epidemic outbreak at the end of 2019, many studies regarding the impact of meteorological factors on the attack have been carried out, and inconsistent conclusions have been reached, indicating the issue's complexity. To more accurately identify the effects and patterns of meteorological factors on the epidemic, we used a combination of logistic regression (LgR) and partial least squares regression (PLSR) modeling to investigate the possible effects of common meteorological factors, including air temperature, relative humidity, wind speed, and surface pressure, on the transmission of the COVID-19 epidemic. Our analysis shows that: (1) Different countries and regions show spatial heterogeneity in the number of diagnosed patients of the epidemic, but this can be roughly classified into three types: "continuous growth", "staged shock", and "finished"; (2) Air temperature is the most significant meteorological factor influencing the transmission of the COVID-19 epidemic. Except for a few areas, regional air temperature changes and the transmission of the epidemic show a significant positive correlation, i.e., an increase in air temperature is conducive to the spread of the epidemic; (3) In different countries and regions studied, wind speed, relative humidity, and surface pressure show inconsistent correlation (and significance) with the number of diagnosed cases but show some regularity.
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Affiliation(s)
- Chenglong Sun
- School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China; (C.S.); (L.C.); (H.L.)
| | - Liya Chao
- School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China; (C.S.); (L.C.); (H.L.)
| | - Haiyan Li
- School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China; (C.S.); (L.C.); (H.L.)
| | - Zengyun Hu
- Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China;
| | - Hehui Zheng
- National Institute of Environmental Health, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Beijing 100021, China
| | - Qingxiang Li
- School of Atmospheric Sciences and Key Laboratory of Tropical Atmosphere-Ocean System, Ministry of Education, Sun Yat-Sen University, Zhuhai 519082, China; (C.S.); (L.C.); (H.L.)
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13
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Zoran MA, Savastru RS, Savastru DM, Tautan MN, Baschir LA, Tenciu DV. Assessing the impact of air pollution and climate seasonality on COVID-19 multiwaves in Madrid, Spain. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2022; 203:111849. [PMID: 34370990 PMCID: PMC8343379 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.111849] [Citation(s) in RCA: 10] [Impact Index Per Article: 5.0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 05/07/2021] [Revised: 08/02/2021] [Accepted: 08/03/2021] [Indexed: 05/17/2023]
Abstract
While the COVID-19 pandemic is still in progress, being under the fifth COVID-19 wave in Madrid, over more than one year, Spain experienced a four wave pattern. The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 pathogens in Madrid metropolitan region was investigated from an urban context associated with seasonal variability of climate and air pollution drivers. Based on descriptive statistics and regression methods of in-situ and geospatial daily time series data, this study provides a comparative analysis between COVID-19 waves incidence and mortality cases in Madrid under different air quality and climate conditions. During analyzed period 1 January 2020-1 July 2021, for each of the four COVID-19 waves in Madrid were recorded anomalous anticyclonic synoptic meteorological patterns in the mid-troposphere and favorable stability conditions for COVID-19 disease fast spreading. As airborne microbial temporal pattern is most affected by seasonal changes, this paper found: 1) a significant negative correlation of air temperature, Planetary Boundary Layer height, and surface solar irradiance with daily new COVID-19 incidence and deaths; 2) a similar mutual seasonality with climate variables of the first and the fourth COVID-waves from spring seasons of 2020 and 2021 years. Such information may help the health decision makers and public plan for the future.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria A Zoran
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania.
| | - Roxana S Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Dan M Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Marina N Tautan
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Laurentiu A Baschir
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Daniel V Tenciu
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
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Luqmani YA, El Hashim A. The COVID-19 Pandemic: A Health Crisis Managed or a Panic Response with Disastrous Future Consequences? Med Princ Pract 2021; 31:1-10. [PMID: 34662884 PMCID: PMC8805053 DOI: 10.1159/000520258] [Citation(s) in RCA: 0] [Impact Index Per Article: 0] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Submit a Manuscript] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/18/2021] [Accepted: 10/11/2021] [Indexed: 11/19/2022] Open
Abstract
In 1 year, COVID-19 spread rapidly worldwide affecting all societies and most age-groups. It has taken not only a toll of human lives (approaching 220 million people infected with 4.55 million reported deaths at time of writing) but also decimated every economy as countries struggle to control infection rates by introducing draconian lockdown and social distancing measures, bringing great suffering well beyond medical effects of the disease. A parallel pandemic has resulted in a deluge of information emanating from both scientific as well as international news media including social media platforms. Fact and fiction, reality, and perception have become entangled; the only realistic solution, both medically as well as politically, is concerted global vaccination (which is currently underway) to reduce further infection by introducing universal immunity. However, public controversy rages due to widespread apprehension regarding necessity, immediate risks, and long-term safety of what is perceived as "fast-tracked" medication. While some concerns may be justified, much is due to misconception and misunderstanding. This review highlights some of the issues concerning the handling of the COVID-19 crisis by governments worldwide, the medical and scientific communities, and the media and how this may have laid the foundations for a far greater medical, social, and economic burden in the coming years. We present comparative data to challenge current conceptions of this disease in the more general context of human health to provide a perspective that seems to have been lost in the general panic. We need more rational approaches to the handling of a disease which is unlikely to disappear from our spectrum of afflictions even after the magnifying glass has been removed.
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Affiliation(s)
- Yunus A. Luqmani
- Department of Pharmaceutical Chemistry, Faculty of Pharmacy, Kuwait University, Kuwait City, Kuwait
| | - Ahmed El Hashim
- Department of Pharmacology and Therapeutics, Faculty of Pharmacy, Kuwait University, Kuwait City, Kuwait
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15
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Zoran MA, Savastru RS, Savastru DM, Tautan MN, Baschir LA, Tenciu DV. Exploring the linkage between seasonality of environmental factors and COVID-19 waves in Madrid, Spain. PROCESS SAFETY AND ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION : TRANSACTIONS OF THE INSTITUTION OF CHEMICAL ENGINEERS, PART B 2021; 152:583-600. [PMID: 36285289 PMCID: PMC9584827 DOI: 10.1016/j.psep.2021.06.043] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 03/15/2021] [Revised: 06/14/2021] [Accepted: 06/27/2021] [Indexed: 05/07/2023]
Abstract
Like several countries, Spain experienced a multi wave pattern of COVID-19 pandemic over more than one year period, between spring 2020 and spring 2021. The transmission of SARS-CoV-2 pandemics is a multi-factorial process involving among other factors outdoor environmental variables and viral inactivation.This study aims to quantify the impact of climate and air pollution factors seasonality on incidence and severity of COVID-19 disease waves in Madrid metropolitan region in Spain. We employed descriptive statistics and Spearman rank correlation tests for analysis of daily in-situ and geospatial time-series of air quality and climate data to investigate the associations with COVID-19 incidence and lethality in Madrid under different synoptic meteorological patterns. During the analyzed period (1 January 2020-28 February 2021), with one month before each of three COVID-19 waves were recorded anomalous anticyclonic circulations in the mid-troposphere, with positive anomalies of geopotential heights at 500 mb and favorable stability conditions for SARS-CoV-2 fast diffusion. In addition, the results reveal that air temperature, Planetary Boundary Layer height, ground level ozone have a significant negative relationship with daily new COVID-19 confirmed cases and deaths. The findings of this study provide useful information to the public health authorities and policymakers for optimizing interventions during pandemics.
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Affiliation(s)
- Maria A Zoran
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Roxana S Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Dan M Savastru
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Marina N Tautan
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Laurentiu A Baschir
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
| | - Daniel V Tenciu
- IT Department, National Institute of R&D for Optoelectronics, Atomistilor Street 409, MG5, Magurele-Bucharest, 077125, Romania
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16
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Quintana AV, Clemons M, Hoevemeyer K, Liu A, Balbus J. A Descriptive Analysis of the Scientific Literature on Meteorological and Air Quality Factors and COVID-19. GEOHEALTH 2021; 5:e2020GH000367. [PMID: 34430778 PMCID: PMC8290880 DOI: 10.1029/2020gh000367] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2020] [Revised: 03/23/2021] [Accepted: 04/23/2021] [Indexed: 06/09/2023]
Abstract
The role of meteorological and air quality factors in moderating the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and severity of COVID-19 is a critical topic as an opportunity for targeted intervention and relevant public health messaging. Studies conducted in early 2020 suggested that temperature, humidity, ultraviolet radiation, and other meteorological factors have an influence on the transmissibility and viral dynamics of COVID-19. Previous reviews of the literature have found significant heterogeneity in associations but did not examine many factors relating to epidemiological quality of the analyses such as rigor of data collection and statistical analysis, or consideration of potential confounding factors. To provide greater insight into the current state of the literature from an epidemiological standpoint, the authors conducted a rapid descriptive analysis with a strong focus on the characterization of COVID-19 health outcomes and use of controls for confounding social and demographic variables such as population movement and age. We have found that few studies adequately considered the challenges posed by the use of governmental reporting of laboratory testing as a proxy for disease transmission, including timeliness and consistency. In addition, very few studies attempted to control for confounding factors, including timing and implementation of public health interventions and metrics of population compliance with those interventions. Ongoing research should give greater consideration to the measures used to quantify COVID-19 transmission and health outcomes as well as how to control for the confounding influences of public health measures and personal behaviors.
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Affiliation(s)
| | | | - Krista Hoevemeyer
- Des Moines University ‐ U.S. Global Change Research ProgramDes MoinesIAUSA
| | - Ann Liu
- National Institute of Environmental Health SciencesBethesdaMDUSA
| | - John Balbus
- National Institute of Environmental Health SciencesBethesdaMDUSA
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17
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Byun WS, Heo SW, Jo G, Kim JW, Kim S, Lee S, Park HE, Baek JH. Is coronavirus disease (COVID-19) seasonal? A critical analysis of empirical and epidemiological studies at global and local scales. ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH 2021; 196:110972. [PMID: 33705770 PMCID: PMC7941024 DOI: 10.1016/j.envres.2021.110972] [Citation(s) in RCA: 23] [Impact Index Per Article: 7.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 11/18/2020] [Revised: 02/18/2021] [Accepted: 03/01/2021] [Indexed: 05/03/2023]
Abstract
Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has infected more than 50 million people and killed more than one million, worldwide, during less than a year course. COVID-19, which has already become the worst pandemic in the last 100 years, is still spreading worldwide. Since the beginning of the outbreak, it has been of particular interest to understand whether COVID-19 is seasonal; the finding might help for better planning and preparation for the fight against the disease. Over the past 12 months, numerous empirical and epidemiological studies have been performed to define the distinct diffusion patterns of COVID-19. Thereby, a wealth of data has accumulated on the relationship between various seasonal meteorological factors and COVID-19 transmissibility at global and local scales. In this review, we aimed to discuss whether COVID-19 exhibits any seasonal features in a global and local perspective by collecting and providing summaries of the findings from empirical and epidemiological studies on the COVID-19 pandemic during its first seasonal cycle.
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Affiliation(s)
- Woo Seok Byun
- School of Life Science, Handong Global University, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, 37554, Republic of Korea
| | - Sin Woo Heo
- School of Life Science, Handong Global University, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, 37554, Republic of Korea
| | - Gunhee Jo
- School of Life Science, Handong Global University, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, 37554, Republic of Korea
| | - Jae Won Kim
- School of Life Science, Handong Global University, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, 37554, Republic of Korea
| | - Sarang Kim
- School of Life Science, Handong Global University, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, 37554, Republic of Korea
| | - Sujie Lee
- School of Life Science, Handong Global University, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, 37554, Republic of Korea
| | - Hye Eun Park
- School of Life Science, Handong Global University, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, 37554, Republic of Korea
| | - Jea-Hyun Baek
- School of Life Science, Handong Global University, Pohang, Gyeongbuk, 37554, Republic of Korea.
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18
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Giovanetti M, Cella E, Benedetti F, Rife Magalis B, Fonseca V, Fabris S, Campisi G, Ciccozzi A, Angeletti S, Borsetti A, Tambone V, Sagnelli C, Pascarella S, Riva A, Ceccarelli G, Marcello A, Azarian T, Wilkinson E, de Oliveira T, Alcantara LCJ, Cauda R, Caruso A, Dean NE, Browne C, Lourenco J, Salemi M, Zella D, Ciccozzi M. SARS-CoV-2 shifting transmission dynamics and hidden reservoirs potentially limit efficacy of public health interventions in Italy. Commun Biol 2021; 4:489. [PMID: 33883675 PMCID: PMC8060392 DOI: 10.1038/s42003-021-02025-0] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 12/21/2020] [Accepted: 03/03/2021] [Indexed: 01/08/2023] Open
Abstract
We investigated SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics in Italy, one of the countries hit hardest by the pandemic, using phylodynamic analysis of viral genetic and epidemiological data. We observed the co-circulation of multiple SARS-CoV-2 lineages over time, which were linked to multiple importations and characterized by large transmission clusters concomitant with a high number of infections. Subsequent implementation of a three-phase nationwide lockdown strategy greatly reduced infection numbers and hospitalizations. Yet we present evidence of sustained viral spread among sporadic clusters acting as "hidden reservoirs" during summer 2020. Mathematical modelling shows that increased mobility among residents eventually catalyzed the coalescence of such clusters, thus driving up the number of infections and initiating a new epidemic wave. Our results suggest that the efficacy of public health interventions is, ultimately, limited by the size and structure of epidemic reservoirs, which may warrant prioritization during vaccine deployment.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marta Giovanetti
- Laboratório de Flavivírus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Laboratório de Genética Celular e Molecular, ICB, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
- Medical Statistic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, University of Biomedical Campus, Rome, Italy
| | - Eleonora Cella
- Burnett School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA
| | - Francesca Benedetti
- Institute of Human Virology and Global Virus Network Center, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA
| | - Brittany Rife Magalis
- Emerging Pathogens Institute & Department of Pathology, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Vagner Fonseca
- Laboratório de Genética Celular e Molecular, ICB, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
- KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
- Coordenação Geral dos Laboratórios de Saúde Pública/Secretaria de Vigilância em Saúde, Ministério da Saúde, (CGLAB/SVS-MS) Brasília, Distrito Federal, Brazil
| | - Silvia Fabris
- Medical Statistic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, University of Biomedical Campus, Rome, Italy
| | - Giovanni Campisi
- Department of Molecular and Translational Medicine, Section of Microbiology, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy
| | - Alessandra Ciccozzi
- Medical Statistic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, University of Biomedical Campus, Rome, Italy
| | - Silvia Angeletti
- Unit of Clinical Laboratory Science, University Campus Bio-Medico of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | | | | | - Caterina Sagnelli
- Department of Mental Health and Public Medicine, University of Campania "Luigi Vanvitelli", Naples, Italy
| | - Stefano Pascarella
- Department of Biochemical Sciences "A. Rossi Fanelli", University of Rome "La Sapienza", Rome, Italy
| | - Alberto Riva
- ICBR, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Giancarlo Ceccarelli
- Department of Public Health and Infectious Diseases, Policlinico Umberto I Università 'Sapienza', Rome, Italy
| | - Alessandro Marcello
- Laboratory of Molecular Virology, International Centre for Genetic Engineering and Biotechnology (ICGEB), Trieste, Italy
| | - Taj Azarian
- Burnett School of Biomedical Sciences, University of Central Florida, Orlando, FL, USA
| | - Eduan Wilkinson
- KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Tulio de Oliveira
- KwaZulu-Natal Research Innovation and Sequencing Platform (KRISP), School of Laboratory Medicine and Medical Sciences, College of Health Sciences, University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa
| | - Luiz Carlos Junior Alcantara
- Laboratório de Flavivírus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil
- Laboratório de Genética Celular e Molecular, ICB, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil
| | - Roberto Cauda
- Department Infectious Diseases, - Fondazione Policlinico Universitario "A. Gemelli" IRCCS, Rome, Italy
| | - Arnaldo Caruso
- Department of Molecular and Translational Medicine, Section of Microbiology, University of Brescia, Brescia, Italy
| | - Natalie E Dean
- Department of Epidemiology, College of Public Health and Health Professions, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA
| | - Cameron Browne
- Department of Mathematics, University of Lafayette, Lafayette, LA, USA
| | - Jose Lourenco
- Department of Zoology, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK
| | - Marco Salemi
- Emerging Pathogens Institute & Department of Pathology, College of Medicine, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, USA.
| | - Davide Zella
- Institute of Human Virology and Global Virus Network Center, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, University of Maryland School of Medicine, Baltimore, MD, USA.
| | - Massimo Ciccozzi
- Medical Statistic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, University of Biomedical Campus, Rome, Italy.
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Giovanetti M, Benedetti F, Campisi G, Ciccozzi A, Fabris S, Ceccarelli G, Tambone V, Caruso A, Angeletti S, Zella D, Ciccozzi M. Evolution patterns of SARS-CoV-2: Snapshot on its genome variants. Biochem Biophys Res Commun 2021; 538:88-91. [PMID: 33199021 PMCID: PMC7836704 DOI: 10.1016/j.bbrc.2020.10.102] [Citation(s) in RCA: 92] [Impact Index Per Article: 30.7] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2020] [Revised: 10/20/2020] [Accepted: 10/21/2020] [Indexed: 12/15/2022]
Abstract
An acute respiratory syndrome (COVID-19), caused by a novel coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2) with a high rate of morbidity and elevate mortality, has emerged as one of the most important threats to humankind in the last centuries. Rigorous determination of SARS-CoV-2 infectivity is very difficult owing to the continuous evolution of the virus, with its single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variants and many lineages. However, it is urgently necessary to study the virus in depth, to understand the mechanism of its pathogenicity and virulence, and to develop effective therapeutic strategies. The present contribution summarizes in a succinct way the current knowledge on the evolutionary and structural features of the virus, with the aim of clarifying its mutational pattern and its possible role in the ongoing pandemic.
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Affiliation(s)
- Marta Giovanetti
- Laboratório de Flavivírus, Instituto Oswaldo Cruz, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, Rio de Janeiro, Brazil,Medical Statistic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, University of Biomedical Campus, Rome, Italy
| | - Francesca Benedetti
- Institute of Human Virology, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, School of Medicine, University of Maryland Baltimore, USA
| | - Giovanni Campisi
- Department of Molecular and Translational Medicine, Section of Microbiology, Universityof Brescia, Brescia, Italy
| | - Alessandra Ciccozzi
- Medical Statistic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, University of Biomedical Campus, Rome, Italy
| | - Silvia Fabris
- Medical Statistic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, University of Biomedical Campus, Rome, Italy
| | - Giancarlo Ceccarelli
- Dipartimento di Salute Pubblica e Malattie Infettive, Policlinico Umberto I Università‘Sapienza’, Rome, Italy
| | | | - Arnaldo Caruso
- Department of Molecular and Translational Medicine, Section of Microbiology, Universityof Brescia, Brescia, Italy
| | - Silvia Angeletti
- Unit of Clinical Laboratory Science, University Campus Bio-Medico of Rome, Rome, Italy
| | - Davide Zella
- Institute of Human Virology, Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, School of Medicine, University of Maryland Baltimore, USA,Corresponding author
| | - Massimo Ciccozzi
- Medical Statistic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, University of Biomedical Campus, Rome, Italy,Corresponding author
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20
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Zerefos CS, Solomos S, Kapsomenakis J, Poupkou A, Dimitriadou L, Polychroni ID, Kalabokas P, Philandras CM, Thanos D. Lessons learned and questions raised during and post-COVID-19 anthropopause period in relation to the environment and climate. ENVIRONMENT, DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY 2021; 23:10623-10645. [PMID: 33230388 PMCID: PMC7673974 DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01075-4] [Citation(s) in RCA: 1] [Impact Index Per Article: 0.3] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/06/2020] [Accepted: 11/03/2020] [Indexed: 05/05/2023]
Abstract
In the first part, this work reports that during the global "anthropopause" period, that was imposed in March and April 2020 for limiting the spread of COVID-19, the concentrations of basic air pollutants over Europe were reduced by up to 70%. During May and June, the gradual lift of the stringent measures resulted in the recovery of these reductions with pollution concentrations approaching the levels before the lockdown by the end of June 2020. In the second part, this work examines the alleged correlations between the reported cases of COVID-19 and temperature, humidity and particulate matter for March and April 2020 in Europe. It was found that decreasing temperatures and relative humidity with increasing concentrations of particulate matter are correlated with an increase in the number of reported cases during these 2 months. However, when these calculations were repeated for May and June, we found a remarkable drop in the significance of the correlations which leads us to question the generally accepted inverse relation between pandemics and air temperature at least during the warmer months. Such a relationship could not be supported in our study for SARS-CoV-2 virus and the question remains open. In the third and last part of this work, we examine the question referring to the origin of pandemics. In this context we have examined the hypothesis that the observed climate warming in Siberia and the Arctic and the thawing of permafrost could result to the release of trapped in the permafrost pathogens in the atmosphere. We find that although such relations cannot be directly justified, they present a possible horrifying mechanism for the origin of viruses in the future during the developing global warming of our planet in the decades to come. Overall the findings of our study indicate that: (1) the reduction of anthropogenic emissions in Europe during the "anthropopause" period of March and April 2020 was significant, but when the lockdown measures were raised the concentrations of atmospheric pollutants quickly recovered to pre-pandemic levels and therefore any possible climatic feedbacks were negligible; (2) no robust relationship between atmospheric parameters and the spread of COVID-19 cases can be justified in the warmer part of the year and (3) more research needs to be done regarding the possible links between climate change and the release of new pathogens from thawing of permafrost areas.
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Affiliation(s)
- Christos S. Zerefos
- Research Centre for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece
- Biomedical Research Foundation, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece
- Navarino Environmental Observatory (N.E.O.), Messinia, Greece
- Mariolopoulos-Kanaginis Foundation for the Environmental Sciences, Athens, Greece
| | - Stavros Solomos
- Research Centre for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - John Kapsomenakis
- Research Centre for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Anastasia Poupkou
- Research Centre for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Lida Dimitriadou
- Research Centre for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece
- Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Iliana D. Polychroni
- Research Centre for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece
- Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | - Pavlos Kalabokas
- Research Centre for Atmospheric Physics and Climatology, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece
| | | | - Dimitris Thanos
- Biomedical Research Foundation, Academy of Athens, Athens, Greece
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21
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Gorman S, Weller RB. Investigating the Potential for Ultraviolet Light to Modulate Morbidity and Mortality From COVID-19: A Narrative Review and Update. Front Cardiovasc Med 2020; 7:616527. [PMID: 33426009 PMCID: PMC7786057 DOI: 10.3389/fcvm.2020.616527] [Citation(s) in RCA: 11] [Impact Index Per Article: 2.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 10/13/2020] [Accepted: 11/26/2020] [Indexed: 12/16/2022] Open
Abstract
During the COVID-19 (coronavirus disease of 2019) pandemic, researchers have been seeking low-cost and accessible means of providing protection from its harms, particularly for at-risk individuals such as those with cardiovascular disease, diabetes and obesity. One possible way is via safe sun exposure, and/or dietary supplementation with induced beneficial mediators (e.g., vitamin D). In this narrative review, we provide rationale and updated evidence on the potential benefits and harms of sun exposure and ultraviolet (UV) light that may impact COVID-19. We review recent studies that provide new evidence for any benefits (or otherwise) of UV light, sun exposure, and the induced mediators, vitamin D and nitric oxide, and their potential to modulate morbidity and mortality induced by infection with SARS-CoV-2 (severe acute respiratory disease coronavirus-2). We identified substantial interest in this research area, with many commentaries and reviews already published; however, most of these have focused on vitamin D, with less consideration of UV light (or sun exposure) or other mediators such as nitric oxide. Data collected to-date suggest that ambient levels of both UVA and UVB may be beneficial for reducing severity or mortality due to COVID-19, with some inconsistent findings. Currently unresolved are the nature of the associations between blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D and COVID-19 measures, with more prospective data needed that better consider lifestyle factors, such as physical activity and personal sun exposure levels. Another short-coming has been a lack of measurement of sun exposure, and its potential to influence COVID-19 outcomes. We also discuss possible mechanisms by which sun exposure, UV light and induced mediators could affect COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, by focusing on likely effects on viral pathogenesis, immunity and inflammation, and potential cardiometabolic protective mechanisms. Finally, we explore potential issues including the impacts of exposure to high dose UV radiation on COVID-19 and vaccination, and effective and safe doses for vitamin D supplementation.
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Affiliation(s)
- Shelley Gorman
- Telethon Kids Institute, University of Western Australia, Perth, WA, Australia
| | - Richard B. Weller
- Centre for Inflammation Research, University of Edinburgh, Edinburgh, United Kingdom
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22
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Affiliation(s)
- Nikita Saxena
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Delhi, India
| | - Priyanka Gupta
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Delhi, India
| | - Ruchir Raman
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Delhi, India
| | - Anurag S. Rathore
- Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Delhi, Delhi, India
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23
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Singh O, Bhardwaj P, Kumar D. Association between climatic variables and COVID-19 pandemic in National Capital Territory of Delhi, India. ENVIRONMENT, DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY 2020; 23:9514-9528. [PMID: 33041646 PMCID: PMC7538367 DOI: 10.1007/s10668-020-01003-6] [Citation(s) in RCA: 19] [Impact Index Per Article: 4.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Track Full Text] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2020] [Accepted: 09/23/2020] [Indexed: 05/29/2023]
Abstract
Globally, since the end of December 2019, coronavirus disease (COVID-19) has been recognized as a severe infectious disease. Therefore, this study has been attempted to examine the linkage between climatic variables and COVID-19 particularly in National Capital Territory of Delhi (NCT of Delhi), India. For this, daily data of COVID-19 has been used for the period March 14 to June 11, 2020, (90 days). Eight climatic variables such as maximum, minimum and mean temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), bright sunshine hours, wind speed (km/h), evaporation (mm), and rainfall (mm) have been analyzed in relation to COVID-19. To study the relationship among different climatic variables and COVID-19 spread, Karl Pearson's correlation analysis has been performed. The Mann-Kendall method and Sen's slope estimator have been used to detect the direction and magnitude of COVID-19 trends, respectively. The results have shown that out of eight selected climatic variables, six variables, viz. maximum temperature, minimum temperature, mean temperature, relative humidity, evaporation, and wind speed are positively associated with coronavirus disease cases (statistically significant at 95 and 99% confidence levels). No association of coronavirus disease has been found with bright sunshine hours and rainfall. Besides, COVID-19 cases and deaths have shown increasing trends, significant at 99% confidence level. The results of this study suggest that climatic conditions in NCT of Delhi are favorable for COVID-19 and the disease may spread further with the increasing temperature, relative humidity, evaporation and wind speed. This is the only study which has presented the analysis of COVID-19 spread in relation to several climatic variables for the most densely populated and rapidly growing city of India. Thus, considering the results obtained, effective policies and actions are necessary especially by identifying the areas where the spread rate is increasing rapidly in this megacity. The prevention and protection measures should be adopted aiming at to reduce the further transmission of disease in the city.
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Affiliation(s)
- Omvir Singh
- Department of Geography, Kurukshetra University, Kurukshetra, 136119 India
| | - Pankaj Bhardwaj
- Department of Geography, Government College, Bahu, Jhajjar, 124142 India
| | - Dinesh Kumar
- Department of Geography, Government College for Women, Gohana, 131301 India
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24
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Pisanti S, Deelen J, Gallina AM, Caputo M, Citro M, Abate M, Sacchi N, Vecchione C, Martinelli R. Correlation of the two most frequent HLA haplotypes in the Italian population to the differential regional incidence of Covid-19. J Transl Med 2020; 18:352. [PMID: 32933522 PMCID: PMC7491019 DOI: 10.1186/s12967-020-02515-5] [Citation(s) in RCA: 74] [Impact Index Per Article: 18.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [MESH Headings] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 07/06/2020] [Accepted: 09/04/2020] [Indexed: 12/18/2022] Open
Abstract
BACKGROUND Understanding how HLA polymorphisms may affect both susceptibility, course and severity of Covid-19 infection could help both at the clinical level to identify individuals at higher risk from the disease and at the epidemiological one to explain the differences in the epidemic trend among countries or even within a specific country. Covid-19 disease in Italy showed a peculiar geographical distribution from the northern most affected regions to the southern ones only slightly touched. METHODS In this study we analysed the regional frequencies for the most common Italian haplotypes from the Italian Bone Marrow Donor Registry (HLA-A, -B, -C and -DRB1 at four-digit level). Then we performed Pearson correlation analyses among regional haplotypes estimated frequency in the population and Covid-19 incidence and mortality. RESULTS In this study we found that the two most frequent HLA haplotypes in the Italian population, HLA-A*:01:01g-B*08:01 g-C*07:01g-DRB1*03:01g and HLA-A*02.01g-B*18.01g-C*07.01g-DRB1*11.04g, had a regional distribution overlapping that of Covid-19 and showed respectively a positive (suggestive of susceptibility) and negative (suggestive of protection) significant correlation with both Covid-19 incidence and mortality. CONCLUSIONS Based on these results, in order to define such HLA haplotypes as a factor effectively associated to the disease susceptibility, the creation of national networks that can collect patients' samples from all regions for HLA typing should be highly encouraged.
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Affiliation(s)
- Simona Pisanti
- Department of Medicine, Surgery and Dentistry 'Scuola Medica Salernitana', University of Salerno, Via Salvatore Allende, 84081, Baronissi, SA, Italy.
| | - Joris Deelen
- Max Planck Institute for Biology of Ageing, PO Box 41 06 23, 50866, Cologne, Germany
| | | | - Mariella Caputo
- Department of Medicine, Surgery and Dentistry 'Scuola Medica Salernitana', University of Salerno, Via Salvatore Allende, 84081, Baronissi, SA, Italy
| | - Marianna Citro
- Department of Medicine, Surgery and Dentistry 'Scuola Medica Salernitana', University of Salerno, Via Salvatore Allende, 84081, Baronissi, SA, Italy
| | - Mario Abate
- Department of Medicine, Surgery and Dentistry 'Scuola Medica Salernitana', University of Salerno, Via Salvatore Allende, 84081, Baronissi, SA, Italy
| | | | - Carmine Vecchione
- Department of Medicine, Surgery and Dentistry 'Scuola Medica Salernitana', University of Salerno, Via Salvatore Allende, 84081, Baronissi, SA, Italy
- Vascular Pathophysiology Unit, IRCCS Neuromed, Via Atinense, Pozzilli, 86077, Isernia, Italy
| | - Rosanna Martinelli
- Department of Medicine, Surgery and Dentistry 'Scuola Medica Salernitana', University of Salerno, Via Salvatore Allende, 84081, Baronissi, SA, Italy.
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25
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Ahmed R, Williamson M, Hamid MA, Ashraf N. United States County-level COVID-19 Death Rates and Case Fatality Rates Vary by Region and Urban Status. Healthcare (Basel) 2020; 8:E330. [PMID: 32917009 PMCID: PMC7551952 DOI: 10.3390/healthcare8030330] [Citation(s) in RCA: 14] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.5] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Abstract] [Key Words] [Grants] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Figures] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 08/03/2020] [Revised: 09/03/2020] [Accepted: 09/07/2020] [Indexed: 12/23/2022] Open
Abstract
COVID-19 is a global pandemic with uncertain death rates. We examined county-level population morality rates (per 100,000) and case fatality rates by US region and rural-urban classification, while controlling for demographic, socioeconomic, and hospital variables. We found that population mortality rates and case fatality rates were significantly different across region, rural-urban classification, and their interaction. All significant comparisons had p < 0.001. Northeast counties had the highest population mortality rates (27.4) but had similar case fatality rates (5.9%) compared to other regions except the Southeast, which had significantly lower rates (4.1%). Population mortality rates were highest in urban counties but conversely, case fatality rates were highest in rural counties. Death rates in the Northeast were driven by urban areas (e.g., small, East Coast states), while case fatality rates tended to be highest in the most rural counties for all regions, especially the Southwest. However, on further inspection, high case fatality rate percentages in the Southwest, as well as in overall US counties, were driven by a low case number. This makes it hard to distinguish genuinely higher mortality or an artifact of a small sample size. In summary, coronavirus deaths are not homogenous across the United States but instead vary by region and population and highlight the importance of fine-scale analysis.
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Affiliation(s)
- Rashid Ahmed
- College of Nursing, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB R3T 2N2, Canada;
| | - Mark Williamson
- School of Nursing and Professional Disciplines, University of North Dakota, Grand Forks, ND 58202, USA
| | | | - Naila Ashraf
- Southend Medical and Walk-in Clinic, Winnipeg, MB R2M 5G8, Canada;
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26
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Benedetti F, Pachetti M, Marini B, Ippodrino R, Ciccozzi M, Zella D. SARS-CoV-2: March toward adaptation. J Med Virol 2020; 92:2274-2276. [PMID: 32598499 PMCID: PMC7361333 DOI: 10.1002/jmv.26233] [Citation(s) in RCA: 15] [Impact Index Per Article: 3.8] [Reference Citation Analysis] [Track Full Text] [Download PDF] [Journal Information] [Subscribe] [Scholar Register] [Received: 06/10/2020] [Revised: 06/23/2020] [Accepted: 06/25/2020] [Indexed: 12/22/2022]
Affiliation(s)
- Francesca Benedetti
- Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, School of Medicine, Institute of Human Virology, University of Maryland, Baltimore, Maryland
| | - Maria Pachetti
- Department of Physics, Elettra Sincrotrone Trieste, University of Trieste, Trieste, Italy
| | | | | | - Massimo Ciccozzi
- Medical Statistic and Molecular Epidemiology Unit, University of Biomedical Campus, Rome, Italy
| | - Davide Zella
- Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, School of Medicine, Institute of Human Virology, University of Maryland, Baltimore, Maryland.,Global Virus Network, Baltimore, Maryland
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