Host susceptibility to severe COVID-19 and establishment of a host risk score: findings of 487 cases outside Wuhan

Evaluation of blood pressure variation in recovered COVID-19 patients at one-year follow-up: a retrospective cohort study

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has various sequelae, one of which might be hypertension. We aimed to evaluate COVID-19's impact on blood pressure (BP) in non-hospitalized patients at one-year follow-up.

METHOD

A total of 7,950 consecutive COVID-19 patients regularly visiting our cardiology clinic were retrospectively screened. Patients' electronic medical records including demographics, comorbidities, vital signs, treatments, and outcomes, were reviewed by two physicians. Individuals with at least one BP measurement in the three months preceding COVID-19 and one measurement in 12 months or more following recovery were included. BP levels before and after COVID-19 were compared using the paired t-test.

RESULTS

5,355 confirmed COVID-19 patients (mean age 55.51 ± 15.38 years) were included. Hypertension (56.9%) and diabetes mellitus (34%) were the predominant comorbidities, and 44.3% had prior major adverse cardiovascular events. Both systolic (126.90 ± 20.91 vs. 139.99 ± 23.94 mmHg, P < 0.001) and diastolic BP (80.54 ± 13.94 vs. 86.49 ± 14.40 mmHg, P < 0.001) were significantly higher post-COVID-19 vs. pre-COVID-19. Notably, 456 (14%) hypertensive patients experienced exacerbated hypertension, while 408 (17%) patients developed new-onset hypertension, overall 864 (16%) of patients had exacerbation or new hypertension. Linear regression analysis revealed that advanced age, smoking, previous cardiovascular events, hypertension, and diabetes mellitus predict increased BP following COVID-19 (P < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

COVID-19 raised systolic and diastolic BP in the long term in non-hospitalized patients, with over one-sixth developing new-onset or exacerbated hypertension. All patients should be evaluated regarding BP, following COVID-19 recovery, particularly those with the mentioned predictive factors. (clinicaltrial.gov: NCT05798208).

Correlation of clinical, laboratory, and short-term outcomes of immunocompromised and immunocompetent COVID-19 patients with semi-quantitative chest CT score findings: A case-control study

BACKGROUND

As the effects of immunosuppression are not still clear on COVID-19 patients, we conducted this study to identify clinical and laboratory findings associated with pulmonary involvement in both immunocompromised and immunocompetent patients.

METHODS

A case-control of 107 immunocompromised and 107 immunocompetent COVID-19 patients matched for age and sex with either positive RT-PCR or clinical-radiological findings suggestive of COVID-19 enrolled in the study. Their initial clinical features, laboratory findings, chest CT scans, and short-term outcomes (hospitalization time and intensive care unit [ICU] admission) were recorded. In addition, pulmonary involvement was assessed with the semi-quantitative scoring system (0-25).

RESULTS

Pulmonary involvement was significantly lower in immunocompromised patients in contrast to immunocompetent patients, especially in RLL (p = 0.001), LUL (p = 0.023), and both central and peripheral (p = 0.002), and peribronchovascular (p = 0.004) sites of lungs. Patchy (p < 0.001), wedged (p = 0.002), confluent (p = 0.002) lesions, and ground glass with consolidation pattern (p < 0.001) were significantly higher among immunocompetent patients. Initial signs and symptoms of immunocompromised patients including dyspnea (p = 0.008) and hemoptysis (p = 0.036), respiratory rate of over 25 (p < 0.001), and spo2 of below 93% (p = 0.01) were associated with higher pulmonary involvement. Total chest CT score was also associated with longer hospitalization (p = 0.016) and ICU admission (p = 0.04) among immunocompromised patients.

CONCLUSIONS

Pulmonary involvement score was not significantly different among immunocompromised and immunocompetent patients. Initial clinical findings (dyspnea, hemoptysis, higher RR, and lower Spo2) of immunocompromised patients could better predict pulmonary involvement than laboratory findings.

Exploring risk factors and molecular targets in leukemia patients with COVID-19: a bioinformatics analysis of differential gene expression

The molecular mechanism of COVID-19's pathogenic effects in leukemia patients is still poorly known. Our study investigated the possible disease mechanism of COVID-19 and its associated risk factors in patients with leukemia utilizing differential gene expression analysis. We also employed network-based approaches to identify molecular targets that could potentially diagnose and treat COVID-19-infected leukemia patients. Our study demonstrated a shared set of 60 genes that are expressed differentially among patients with leukemia and COVID-19. Most of these genes are expressed in blood and bone marrow tissues and are predominantly implicated in the pathogenesis of different hematologic malignancies, increasingly imperiling COVID-19 morbidity and mortality among the affected patients. Additionally, we also found that COVID-19 may influence the expression of several cancer-associated genes in leukemia patients, such as CCR7, LEF1, and 13 candidate cancer-driver genes. Furthermore, our findings reveal that COVID-19 may predispose leukemia patients to altered blood homeostasis, increase the risk of COVID-19-related liver injury, and deteriorate leukemia-associated injury and patient prognosis. Our findings imply that molecular signatures, like transcription factors, proteins such as TOP21, and 25 different microRNAs, may be potential targets for diagnosing and treating COVID-19-infected leukemia patients. Nevertheless, additional experimental studies will contribute to further validating the study's findings.

Revelation of mindlines in the setting of crisis

During the devastating early months of the unfolding COVID-19 pandemic in New York, healthcare systems and clinicians dynamically adapted to drastically changing everyday practice despite having little guidance from formal research evidence in the face of a novel virus. Through new, silo-breaking networks of communication, clinical teams transformed and synthesized provisional recommendations, rudimentary published research findings and numerous other sources of knowledge to address the immediate patient care needs they faced during the pandemic surge. These experiences illustrated underlying social processes that are always at play as clinicians integrate information from various sources, including research and published guidelines, with their own tacit knowledge to develop shared yet personal approaches to practice. In this article, we provide a narrative account of personal experience during the COVID-19 surge. We draw on the concept of mindlines as developed by Gabbay and Le May as a conceptual framework for interpreting that experience from the standpoint of how early information from research and guidelines was drawn on and transformed in the course of day-to-day struggle with the crisis in New York City emergency rooms. Finally, briefly referencing the challenges to conventional models of healthcare knowledge creation and translation through research and guideline production posed by COVID-19 crisis, we offer a provisional perspective on current and future developments.

Inhibition potential of natural flavonoids against selected omicron (B.1.19) mutations in the spike receptor binding domain of SARS-CoV-2: a molecular modeling approach

The omicron (B.1.19) variant of contagious severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is considered a variant of concern (VOC) due to its increased transmissibility and highly infectious nature. The spike receptor-binding domain (RBD) is a hotspot of mutations and is regarded as a prominent target for screening drug candidates owing to its crucial role in viral entry and immune evasion. To date, no effective therapy or antivirals have been reported; therefore, there is an urgent need for rapid screening of antivirals. An extensive molecular modelling study has been performed with the primary goal to assess the inhibition potential of natural flavonoids as inhibitors against RBD from a manually curated library. Out of 40 natural flavonoids, five natural flavonoids, namely tomentin A (-8.7 kcal/mol), tomentin C (-8.6 kcal/mol), hyperoside (-8.4 kcal/mol), catechin gallate (-8.3 kcal/mol), and corylifol A (-8.2 kcal/mol), have been considered as the top-ranked compounds based on their binding affinity and molecular interaction profiling. The state-of-the-art molecular dynamics (MD) simulations of these top-ranked compounds in complex with RBD exhibited stable dynamics and structural compactness patterns on 200 nanoseconds. Additionally, complexes of these molecules demonstrated favorable free binding energies and affirmed the docking and simulation results. Moreover, the post-simulation validation of these interacted flavonoids using principal component analysis (PCA) revealed stable interaction patterns with RBD. The integrated results suggest that tomentin A, tomentin C, hyperoside, catechin gallate, and corylifol A might be effective against the emerging variants of SARS-CoV-2 and should be further evaluated using in-vitro and in-vivo experiments.Communicated by Ramaswamy H. Sarma.

Factors Affecting Mortality in Elderly Hypertensive Hospitalized Patients with COVID-19: A Retrospective Study

Purpose

Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) endangers the health and survival of the elderly. We tried to explore factors especially kidney function which affected mortality in elderly hypertensive patients with COVID-19.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective research of 748 COVID-19 elderly patients (≥65 years old) at Zhejiang Hospital. This study compared demographic data, laboratory values, comorbidities, treatments, and clinical outcomes of hypertension and non-hypertension participants, and subgroup analysis of age and frailty was conducted in the hypertension population. Survival analysis was used to determine risk factors for death in elderly patients with COVID-19.

Results

Our study revealed that the elderly hypertensive patients with COVID-19 had higher blood urea nitrogen (BUN), serum uric acid (UA), serum creatinine (Scr), lower estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), higher incidence of severity, admission to intensive care unit (ICU) and death, and longer in-hospital stay than non-hypertensive patients, which also occurred in the very elderly hypertensive patients compared with younger hypertensive patients and frail hypertensive patients compared with no-frail hypertensive patients. In addition, the prevalence of acute kidney injury (AKI) was higher in the oldest old hypertensive patients and frail hypertensive patients. Multivariate survival analysis indicated that the independent risk factors for death from COVID-19 were age ≥80 years, heart failure, antiviral therapy, calcium channel blocker (CCB) therapy, mechanical ventilation, AKI, and eGFR<60 mL/min per 1.73 m2.

Conclusion

The results of the present study suggested that the elderly hypertensive patients with COVID-19 would have more serious kidney injury, more serious disease progression and higher mortality, which also occurred in very elderly and frailty subgroup. Kidney dysfunction was closely related to mortality in elderly patients with COVID-19.

Plasma SARS-CoV-2 N antigen is a powerful molecular marker for early detection of severe COVID-19 in patients and monitoring disease progression

BACKGROUND AND AIMS

Clear and effective indicators for early detection of severe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are insufficient. We investigated the clinical value of the plasma SARS-CoV-2 N antigen (plasma N antigen) for severe COVID-19 early identification and disease progression monitoring.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A cross-sectional study compared the diagnostic value of plasma N antigen levels detected within two days after hospital admission in 957 patients with COVID-19 during the BA2.2 outbreak in Shanghai (April 6-June 15, 2022). A follow-up study analyzed the plasma N antigen prognostic value in 274 non-severe patients, and a longitudinal study evaluated its continuous monitoring value in 16 patients with COVID-19 grade changes.

RESULTS

Plasma N antigen concentrations were significantly higher in severely ill than in non-severely ill patients. The plasma N antigen was superior to nasopharyngeal nucleic acid CT values and established COVID-19 blood biomarkers in identifying severe COVID-19. Patients with high plasma N-antigen concentrations at initial admission were more prone to developing severe COVID-19. The changes in plasma N antigen concentrations were consistent with disease progression. Two logistic regression models, including and excluding plasma N antigen, were established, with model 1 (including plasma N antigen) (AUC = 0.971, 0.958-0.980) yielding a better diagnostic value for severe COVID-19 than Model 2 (plasma N antigen excluded).

CONCLUSION

The plasma N antigen is superior to nasopharyngeal nucleic acids and established COVID-19 blood biomarkers for severe COVID-19 early recognition and progression monitoring, enabling the most accurate patient triaging and efficient utilization of medical resources.

COVID-19 fatality rates in hospitalized patients: A new systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

SARS-COV2 or COVID-19 disease is an infectious illness that emerged for the first time at the end of 2019, in Wuhan, China and rapidly turned out to be an international pandemic with deleterious effects all over the world. In March 2021, A. Macedo et al., has published the first meta-analysis of hospital mortality, so the authors decided to update those data at a time of emergence of new therapies and increasing vaccination rates.

METHODS

As the outcome of interest was the mortality in hospitalized general patients, the authors looked for articles evaluating the clinical characteristics of those patients, consulting PUBMED (The US National Library of Medicine) and EMBASE (Medical database) in an independent selection using predefined terms of search. A meta-analysis random-effect model was estimated using Mantel-Haenszel method. Heterogeneity among studies was tested using Tau2 statistics and Chi2 statistics.

RESULTS

In a first instance 25 articles were included for final analysis with a total of 103,840 patients, but as the goal was to update the anterior data, these studies were analysed together with the 21 studies of the previous meta-analysis, with a total of 114609 patients. The mortality rate of COVID-19 general patients admitted to the hospital was 16% (95% CI 12; 21, I2 =100%).

CONCLUSION

Global hospital mortality of COVID-19 of general patients was 16%, with quite different rates according to the different geographic areas analysed.

Assessment of lung injury severity using ultrasound in critically ill COVID-19 patients in resource limited settings

BACKGROUND

Lung ultrasound is a non-invasive tool available at the bedside for the assessment of critically ill patients. The objective of this study was to evaluate the usefulness of lung ultrasound in assessing the severity of SARS-CoV-2 infection in critically-ill patients in a low-income setting.

METHODS

We conducted a 12-month observational study in a university hospital intensive care unit (ICU) in Mali, on patients admitted for COVID-19 as diagnosed by a positive polymerase chain reaction for SARS-CoV-2 and/or typical lung computed tomography scan findings.

RESULTS

The inclusion criteria was met by 156 patients with a median age of 59 years. Almost all patients (96%) had respiratory failure at admission and many needed respiratory support (121/156, 78%). The feasibility of lung ultrasound was very good, with 1802/1872 (96%) quadrants assessed. The reproducibility was good with an intra-class correlation coefficient of elementary patterns of 0.74 (95% CI 0.65, 0.82) and a coefficient of repeatability of lung ultrasound score < 3 for an overall score of 24. Confluent B lines were the most common lesions found in patients (155/156). The overall mean ultrasound score was 23 ± 5.4, and was significantly correlated with oxygen saturation (Pearson correlation coefficient of - 0.38, p < 0.001). More than half of the patients died (86/156, 55.1%). The factors associated with mortality, as shown by multivariable analysis, were: the patients' age; number of organ failures; therapeutic anticoagulation, and lung ultrasound score.

CONCLUSION

Lung ultrasound was feasible and contributed to characterize lung injury in critically-ill COVID-19 patients in a low income setting. Lung ultrasound score was associated with oxygenation impairment and mortality.

Arterial Hypertension and Severe COVID-19 in Hospitalized Patients: Data from a Cohort Study

Aim. To assess the association  of hypertension  with the severe forms and fatal outcomes of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

Material and Methods. This retrospective  cohort study involved adult patients (≥18 years old),  admitted to the University  hospital №4 of Sechenov University (Moscow, Russia) between 08 April 2020 and 19 November 2020 with clinically diagnosed or laboratory-confirmed COVID-19. The cohort included 1637 patients. The primary outcome was all-cause in-hospital mortality. The secondary outcomes included intensive care unit admission (ICU) and invasive ventilation. Multiple logistic regression was performed to assess the independent association  between risk factors and endpoints.

Results. A total of 1637 patients were included in the study. 51.80% (n=848) of the subjects were males. The median age was 59.0 (48.0; 70.0) years and 55.90% (n=915) had pre-existing diagnosis of hypertension. Patients with hypertension  had significantly more severe lung injury based on chest CT scan findings  as well as lower oxygen saturation  (SрO2). More of them were admitted to ICU  and  placed  on invasive  ventilation.  The hypertension  group  also  had  higher  mortality.  Age,  hypertension, glucose, C-reactive protein and decreased platelet count were independently associated with mortality, hypertension  having the strongest association (OR 1.827, 95% CI 1.174-2.846, p=0.008). Age,  hypertension, neutrophil count, platelet count, glucose, and CRP were independently associated  with ICU  admission, with hypertension  having  the strongest  association  (OR  1.595, 95% CI 1.178-2.158, p=0.002). Age, hypertension, glucose, CRP and decreased platelet count were independently associated with invasive ventilation, with hypertension having the strongest association  (OR  1.703, 95% CI 1.151-2.519, p=0.008).Based on the multiple logistic regression models, odds of death, ICU admission, and invasive ventilation were higher in the hypertension  group as compared  to the group without hypertension.

Conclusion. Hypertension can be an independent predictor of severe COVID-19 and adverse outcomes, namely death, ICU admission, and invasive ventilation in hospitalized  patients.

Exploration of Sex and Age-Based Associations in Clinical Characteristics, Predictors of Severity, and Duration of Stay among COVID-19 Patients at the University Hospital of Saudi Arabia

COVID-19 infection has a spectrum of variable clinical severity between populations because of their characteristic demographic features, co-morbidities, and immune system reactions. This pandemic tested the healthcare system's preparedness, which depends on predictors of severity and factors related to the duration of hospital stays. Therefore, we carried out a single-center, retrospective cohort study in a tertiary academic hospital to investigate these clinical features and predictors of severe disease and study the different factors that affect hospital stay. We utilized medical records from March 2020 to July 2021, which included 443 confirmed (positive RT-PCR) cases. The data were explained using descriptive statistics and analyzed via multivariate models. Among the patients, 65.4% were female and 34.5% were male, with a mean age of 45.7 years (SD ± 17.2). We presented seven age groups with ranges of 10 years and noticed that patients aged 30-39 years old comprised 23.02% of the records, while patients aged 70 and above comprised 10%. Nearly 47% were diagnosed as having mild, 25% as moderate, 18% as asymptomatic, and 11% as having a severe case of COVID-19 disease. Diabetes was the most common co-morbidity factor in 27.6% of patients, followed by hypertension (26.4%). Our population's predictors of severity included pneumonia, identified on a chest X-ray, and co-morbid conditions such as cardiovascular disease, stroke, ICU stay, and mechanical ventilation. The median length of hospital stay was six days. It was significantly longer in patients with a severe disease and who were administered systemic intravenous steroids. An empirical assessment of various clinical parameters could assist in effectively measuring the disease progression and follow-up with patients.

Impact of the seventh day nucleated red blood cell count on mortality in COVID-19 intensive care unit patients: A retrospective case-control study

Background

COVID-19 covers a broad clinical spectrum, threatening global health. Although several studies have investigated various prognostic biochemical and hematological parameters, they generally lack specificity and are insufficient for decision-making. Beyond the neonatal period, NRBCs (nucleated red blood cells) in peripheral blood is rare and often associated with malignant neoplasms, bone marrow diseases, and other severe disorders such as sepsis and hypoxia. Therefore, we investigated if NRBCs can predict mortality in hypoxic ICU (Intensive Care Unit) patients of COVID-19.

Methods

Seventy-one unvaccinated RT-PCR confirmed COVID-19 ICU patients was divided into those who survived (n=35, mean age=58) and died (n=36, mean age=75). Venous blood samples were collected in K3 EDTA tubes and analyzed on a Sysmex XN-1000 hematology analyzer with semiconductor laser flow cytometry and nucleic acid fluorescence staining method for NRBC analysis. NRBC numbers and percentages of the patients were compared on the first and seventh days of admission to the ICU. Results are reported as a proportion of NRBCs per 100 WBCs NRBCs/100 WBC (NRBC% and as absolute NRBC count (NRBC #, × 109/L).

Results

NRBC 7th-day count and % values were statistically higher in non-survival ones. The sensitivity for 7th day NRBC value <0.01 (negative) was 86.11%, the specificity was 48.57%, for <0.02; 75.00%, and 77.14%, for <0.03; 61.11%, and 94.60%.

Conclusions

In conclusion, our results indicate that NRBC elevation (>0.01) significantly predicts mortality in ICU hospitalized patients due to COVID-19. Worse, a high mortality rate is expected, especially with NRBC values of >0.03.

A Review on COVID-19: Primary Receptor, Endothelial Dysfunction, Related Comorbidities, and Therapeutics

Since December 2019, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a global pandemic named coronavirus disease-19 (COVID-19) and resulted in a worldwide economic crisis. Utilizing the spike-like protein on its surface, the SARS-CoV-2 binds to the receptor angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), which highly expresses on the surface of many cell types. Given the crucial role of ACE2 in the renin–angiotensin system, its engagement by SARS-CoV-2 could potentially result in endothelial cell perturbation. This is supported by the observation that one of the most common consequences of COVID-19 infection is endothelial dysfunction and subsequent vascular damage. Furthermore, endothelial dysfunction is the shared denominator among previous comorbidities, including hypertension, kidney disease, cardiovascular diseases, etc., which are associated with an increased risk of severe disease and mortality in COVID-19 patients. Several vaccines and therapeutics have been developed and suggested for COVID-19 therapy. The present review summarizes the relationship between ACE2 and endothelial dysfunction and COVID-19, also reviews the most common comorbidities associated with COVID-19, and finally reviews several categories of potential therapies against COVID-19.

Epidemiological geography at work: An exploratory review about the overall findings of spatial analysis applied to the study of CoViD-19 propagation along the first pandemic year

The present work aims to give an overview on the international scientific papers related to the territorial spreading of SARS-CoV-2, with a specific focus upon applied quantitative geography and territorial analysis, to define a general structure for epidemiological geography research. The target publications were based on GIS spatial analysis, both in the sense of topological analysis and descriptive statistics or lato sensu geographical approaches. The first basic purpose was to organize and enhance the vast knowledge developments generated hitherto by the first pandemic that was studied "on-the-fly" all over the world. The consequent target was to investigate to what extent researchers in geography were able to draw scientifically consistent conclusions about the pandemic evolution, as well as whether wider generalizations could be reasonably claimed. This implied an analysis and a comparison of their findings. Finally, we tested what geographic approaches can say about the pandemic and whether a reliable spatial analysis routine for mapping infectious diseases could be extrapolated. We selected papers proposed for publication during 2020 and 209 articles complied with our parameters of query. The articles were divided in seven categories to enhance existing commonalities. In some cases, converging conclusions were extracted, and generalizations were derived. In other cases, contrasting or inconsistent findings were found, and possible explanations were provided. From the results of our survey, we extrapolated a routine for the production of epidemiological geography analyses, we highlighted the different steps of investigation that were attained, and we underlined the most critical nodes of the methodology. Our findings may help to point out what are the most critical conceptual challenges of epidemiological mapping, and where it might improve to engender informed conclusions and aware outcomes.

Estrogens as a Possible Therapeutic Strategy for the Management of Neuroinflammation and Neuroprotection in COVID-19

The Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) affects several tissues, including the central and peripheral nervous system. It has also been related to signs and symptoms that suggest neuroinflammation with possible effects in the short, medium, and long term. Estrogens could have a positive impact on the management of the disease, not only due to its already known immunomodulator effect, but also activating other pathways that may be important in the pathophysiology of COVID-19, such as the regulation of the virus receptor and its metabolites. In addition, they can have a positive effect on neuroinflammation secondary to pathologies other than COVID-19. The aim of this study is to analyze the molecular mechanisms that link estrogens with their possible therapeutic effect for neuroinflammation related to COVID-19. Advanced searches were performed in scientific databases as Pub- Med, ProQuest, EBSCO, the Science Citation index, and clinical trials. Estrogens have been shown to participate in the immune modulation of the response to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). In addition to this mechanism, we propose that estrogens can regulate the expression and activity of the Angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), reestablishing its cytoprotective function, which may be limited by its interaction with SARS-CoV-2. In this proposal, estrogens and estrogenic compounds could increase the synthesis of Angiotensin-(1-7) (Ang-(1-7)) that acts through the Mas receptor (MasR) in cells that are being attacked by the virus. Estrogens can be a promising, accessible, and low-cost treatment for neuroprotection and neuroinflammation in patients with COVID-19, due to its direct immunomodulatory capacity in decreasing cytokine storm and increasing cytoprotective capacity of the axis ACE2/Ang (1-7)/MasR.

Risk Factors for In-Hospital Mortality among Patients with Coronavirus-19 in Isfahan City, Iran

Background

The aim of the study is to explore the risk factors of mortality for hospitalized patients in three designated hospitals in Isfahan province.

Materials and Methods

This retrospective cohort study was conducted on all positive coronavirus disease (COVID)-19 patients admitted to Khorshid, Isabn Maryam, and Amin hospitals in Isfahan province. The demographic, clinical, laboratory, and outcome data of patients who were died or discharged from February 24, 2020, to April 18, 2020, were extracted from patient's medical records.

Results

Overall 1044 COVID-19 patients were included in this analysis. Based on the findings of this study, older age (≥65 years) (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR]: 2.06; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.13-3.76), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) history (aHR: 2.52; 95% CI: 1.09-5.83), white blood cell (WBC) counts more than 10 × 10^3/L (aHR: 3.05; 95% CI: 1.42-6.55), Hb level <13 gr/L (aHR: 2.82; 95% CI: 1.34-5.93), bilateral pulmonary infiltrates (aHR: 2.02; 95% CI: 1.12-3.64) at admission, development of acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS) (aHR: 1.87; 95% CI: 1.01-3.47), and intensive care unit (ICU) admission (aHR: 2.09; 95% CI: 1.04-4.18) during hospitalization were risk factors for in-hospital mortality in patients with COVID-19.

Conclusions

Multiple factors were found related to the severity and death among COVID-19 patients. We were found that older age (≥65 years) with COPD history, high level of WBC, low level of Hb (<13 g/L), bilateral pulmonary infiltrates at admission, development of ARDS, and ICU admission during hospitalization were identified as risk factors of death among COVID-19 patients. More related studies are needed in the future.

Predictors of severe COVID-19 among healthcare workers in Sabah, Malaysia

BACKGROUND

Healthcare workers (HCWs) is the high-risk group for COVID-19 infection due to increased workplace exposure. However, evidence of the disease burden and factors associated with severe COVID-19 infection among HCWs is limited. Therefore, this article aims to describe the prevalence of severe COVID-19 disease among HCWs in Sabah, Malaysia, and to determine the factors associated with severe COVID-19 infection.

METHOD

A retrospective cross-sectional study was carried out by assessing the data of COVID-19-infected HCWs in Sabah, Malaysia, from 1st March 2021 until 30th September 2021. Logistic regression analysis was used in this study.

RESULTS

Three thousand and forty HCWs were diagnosed with COVID-19 from 1st March 2021 until 30th September 2021. Of the 3040 HCWs, 2948 (97.0%) HCWs were mild, whereas 92 (3.0%) were severe. The multivariate logistic regression model showed that severe COVID-19 among HCWs in Sabah was associated with those do not receive any COVID-19 vaccination (aOR 6.061, 95% CI 3.408 - 10.780), underlying co-morbidity (aOR 3.335, 95% CI 2.183 - 5.096), and female (aOR 1.833, 95% CI 1.090 - 3.081).

CONCLUSION

HCWs should strictly adhere to preventive measures, including vaccination, personal protective equipment, and early referral to a physician upon identifying severe COVID-19 infection. Early screening and aggressive co-morbidity treatment among HCWs are essential for public health practitioners to prevent severe COVID-19 disease. Regardless of co-morbidity status, HCWs should stay up to date with COVID-19 vaccination, including booster doses.

A novel evidence-based predictor tool for hospitalization and length of stay: insights from COVID-19 patients in New York city

Predictive models for key outcomes of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) can optimize resource utilization and patient outcome. We aimed to design and internally validate a web-based calculator predictive of hospitalization and length of stay (LOS) in a large cohort of COVID-19-positive patients presenting to the Emergency Department (ED) in a New York City health system. The study cohort consisted of consecutive adult (> 18 years) patients presenting to the ED of Mount Sinai Health System hospitals between March 2020 and April 2020, diagnosed with COVID-19. Logistic regression was utilized to construct predictive models for hospitalization and prolonged (> 3 days) LOS. Discrimination was evaluated using area under the receiver operating curve (AUC). Internal validation with bootstrapping was performed, and a web-based calculator was implemented. From 5859 patients, 65% were hospitalized. Independent predictors of hospitalization and extended LOS included older age, chronic kidney disease, elevated maximum temperature, and low minimum oxygen saturation (p < 0.001). Additional predictors of hospitalization included male sex, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, hypertension, and diabetes. AUCs of 0.881 and 0.770 were achieved for hospitalization and LOS, respectively. Elevated levels of CRP, creatinine, and ferritin were key determinants of hospitalization and LOS (p < 0.05). A calculator was made available under the following URL: https://covid19-outcome-prediction.shinyapps.io/COVID19_Hospitalization_Calculator/ . This study yielded internally validated models that predict hospitalization risk in COVID-19-positive patients, which can be used to optimize resource allocation. Predictors of hospitalization and extended LOS included older age, CKD, fever, oxygen desaturation, elevated C-reactive protein, creatinine, and ferritin.

Comparing Rapid Ag Test and PCR in SARS-CoV-2 Management in Rural Egypt

Like elsewhere around the globe, SARS-CoV-2 infection is spreading in rural Egypt. Due to high sensitivity and specificity, the gold standard of diagnostics is reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction PCR (RT-PCR). Rural areas without access to certified laboratories cannot take advantage of RT-PCR testing, and thus are dependent upon rapid antigen testing, a point-of-care test that requires less training and can produce results within 15 minutes. Rapid antigen testing can give an advantage to medical teams in rural settings by affording effective and early control of SARS-CoV-2 infection spread. We sought to assess the contribution of different COVID-19 testing procedures in rural Egypt. We conducted a prospective cohort study in a rural lab in Giza, Egypt. Approximately 223 individuals with potential SARS-CoV-2 infection were involved in the study during the pandemic peak in Giza, Egypt, from March 4 – May 30, 2021. Subjects were subjected to RT-PCR and rapid antigen testing, and the performance of each testing procedure was compared. Between March 4 – May 30, 2021, approximately 223 symptomatic individuals were included in this study. 190 patients (85.2%) were indicated as PCR positive for SARS-CoV-2, while 33 (14.8%) were PCR negative. In comparison, a rapid antigen test showed 178 out of 223 patients (79.8%) were indicated as positive, or 94% of the PCR-positive individuals. In Giza, a rural area of Egypt, RT-PCR had an optimal balance of sensitivity and specificity, however, the turnaround time was a limiting factor. Antigen testing, performed as a rapid point-of-care test, can play an effective role in rural outbreak control due to its ease of use and rapid results.

Increased TRIM31 gene expression is positively correlated with SARS-CoV-2 associated genes TMPRSS2 and TMPRSS4 in gastrointestinal cancers

Besides typical respiratory symptoms, COVID-19 patients also have gastrointestinal symptoms. Studies focusing on the gastrointestinal tumors derived from gastrointestinal tissues have raised a question whether these tumors might express higher levels of SARS-CoV-2 associated genes and therefore patients diagnosed with GI cancers may be more susceptible to the infection. In this study, we have analyzed the expression of SARS-CoV-2 associated genes and their co-expressions in gastrointestinal solid tumors, cancer cell lines and patient-derived organoids relative to their normal counterparts. Moreover, we have found increased co-expression of TMPRSS2-TMPRSS4 in gastrointestinal cancers suggesting that SARS-CoV-2 viral infection known to be mediated by this protease pair might facilitate the effects of viral infection in GI cancer patients. Further, our findings also demonstrate that TRIM31 expression is upregulated in gastrointestinal tumors, while the inhibition of TRIM31 significantly altered viral replication and viral processes associated with cellular pathways in gastrointestinal cancer samples. Taken together, these findings indicate that in addition to the co-expression of TMPRSS2-TMPRSS4 protease pair in GI cancers, TRIM31 expression is positively correlated with this pair and TRIM31 may play a role in providing an increased susceptibility in GI cancer patients to be infected with SARS-CoV-2 virus.

The Disconnect Between Development and Intended Use of Clinical Prediction Models for Covid-19: A Systematic Review and Real-World Data Illustration

Background

The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic has boosted the appearance of clinical predictions models in medical literature. Many of these models aim to provide guidance for decision making on treatment initiation. Special consideration on how to account for post-baseline treatments is needed when developing such models. We examined how post-baseline treatment was handled in published Covid-19 clinical prediction models and we illustrated how much estimated risks may differ according to how treatment is handled.

Methods

Firstly, we reviewed 33 Covid-19 prognostic models published in literature in the period up to 5 May 2020. We extracted: (1) the reported intended use of the model; (2) how treatment was incorporated during model development and (3) whether the chosen analysis strategy was in agreement with the intended use. Secondly, we used nationwide Dutch data on hospitalized patients who tested positive for SARS-CoV-2 in 2020 to illustrate how estimated mortality risks will differ when using four different analysis strategies to model ICU treatment.

Results

Of the 33 papers, 21 (64%) had misalignment between intended use and analysis strategy, 7 (21%) were unclear about the estimated risk and only 5 (15%) had clear alignment between intended use and analysis strategy. We showed with real data how different approaches to post-baseline treatment yield different estimated mortality risks, ranging between 33 and 46% for a 75 year-old patient with two medical conditions.

Conclusions

Misalignment between intended use and analysis strategy is common in reported Covid-19 clinical prediction models. This can lead to considerable under or overestimation of intended risks.

Update on the Epidemiology, Diagnosis, and Treatment of Coccidioidomycosis

Coccidioidomycosis is a fungal infection caused by Coccidioides immitis and Coccidioides posadasii. The dimorphic fungi live in the soils of arid and semi-arid regions of the western United States, as well as parts of Mexico, Central America, and South America. Incidence of disease has risen consistently in recent years, and the geographic distribution of Coccidioides spp. appears to be expanding beyond previously known areas of endemicity. Climate factors are predicted to further extend the range of environments suitable for the growth and dispersal of Coccidioides species. Most infections are asymptomatic, though a small proportion result in severe or life-threatening forms of disease. Primary pulmonary coccidioidomycosis is commonly mistaken for community-acquired pneumonia, often leading to inappropriate antibacterial treatment and unnecessary healthcare costs. Diagnosis of coccidioidomycosis is challenging and often relies on clinician suspicion to pursue laboratory testing. Advancements in diagnostic tools and antifungal therapy developments seek to improve the early detection and effective management of infection. This review will highlight recent updates and summarize the current understanding of the epidemiology, diagnosis, and treatment of coccidioidomycosis.

SARS-CoV-2 RNA copy number is a factor associated with the mortality of COVID-19 and improves the predictive performance of mortality in severe cases

Factors associated with mortality are important for the treatment of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The polymerase chain reaction (PCR) test is the gold standard for diagnosing COVID-19 and reflects the viral load in the upper respiratory tract. This study enrolled 523 patients. Four hundred forty-one and 75 patients were performed PCR testing in nasopharyngeal swabs and sputum specimens, respectively, within 20 days from the onset. We investigated the association between RNA copy number and the severity and mortality of COVID-19, and its effect on the predictive performance for the severity and mortality. RNA copy numbers in nasopharyngeal swabs were higher in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group. Multivariate logistic regression analysis identified that the high RNA copy number (≥ 9 log₁₀ /swab) in nasopharyngeal swabs was a factor associated with mortality (odds ratio, 4.50; 95% confidence interval, 1.510 - 13.100; p = 0.008). Furthermore, in severe cases, adding RNA copy number (≥ 9 log₁₀ /swab), which was adjusted by duration from onset to PCR, improved mortality predictive performance based on known factors. The RNA copy number is a factor associated with the mortality of COVID-19 and can improve the predictive performance of mortality in severe cases.

Risk of Death in Comorbidity Subgroups of Hospitalized COVID-19 Patients Inferred by Routine Laboratory Markers of Systemic Inflammation on Admission: A Retrospective Study

Our study objective was to construct models using 20 routine laboratory parameters on admission to predict disease severity and mortality risk in a group of 254 hospitalized COVID-19 patients. Considering the influence of confounding factors in this single-center study, we also retrospectively assessed the correlations between the risk of death and the routine laboratory parameters within individual comorbidity subgroups. In multivariate regression models and by ROC curve analysis, a model of three routine laboratory parameters (AUC 0.85; 95% CI: 0.79–0.91) and a model of six laboratory factors (AUC 0.86; 95% CI: 0.81–0.91) were able to predict severity and mortality of COVID-19, respectively, compared with any other individual parameter. Hierarchical cluster analysis showed that inflammatory laboratory markers grouped together in three distinct clusters including positive correlations: WBC with NEU, NEU with neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), NEU with systemic immune-inflammation index (SII), NLR with SII and platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR) with SII. When analyzing the routine laboratory parameters in the subgroups of comorbidities, the risk of death was associated with a common set of laboratory markers of systemic inflammation. Our results have shown that a panel of several routine laboratory parameters recorded on admission could be helpful for early evaluation of the risk of disease severity and mortality in COVID-19 patients. Inflammatory markers for mortality risk were similar in the subgroups of comorbidities, suggesting the limited effect of confounding factors in predicting COVID-19 mortality at admission.

Myocardial Injury in COVID-19 and Its Implications in Short- and Long-Term Outcomes

COVID-19 caused by severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) is still a pandemic with high mortality and morbidity rates. Clinical manifestation is widely variable, including asymptomatic or mild respiratory tract illness to severe pneumonia and death. Myocardial injury is a significant pathogenic feature of COVID-19 and it is associated with worse in-hospital outcomes, mainly due to a higher number of hospital readmissions, with over 50% mortality. These findings suggest that myocardial injury would identify COVID-19 patients with higher risk during active infection and mid-term follow-up. Potential contributors responsible for myocardial damage are myocarditis, vasculitis, acute inflammation, type 1 and type 2 myocardial infarction. However, there are few data about cardiac sequelae and its long-term consequences. Thus, the optimal screening tool for residual cardiac sequelae, clinical follow-up, and the benefits of a specific cardiovascular therapy during the convalescent phase remains unknown. This mini-review explores the different mechanisms of myocardial injury related to COVID-19 and its short and long-term implications.

Heterogeneity and Risk of Bias in Studies Examining Risk Factors for Severe Illness and Death in COVID-19: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

This systematic review and meta-analysis synthesized the evidence on the impacts of demographics and comorbidities on the clinical outcomes of COVID-19, as well as the sources of the heterogeneity and publication bias of the relevant studies. Two authors independently searched the literature from PubMed, Embase, Cochrane library, and CINAHL on 18 May 2021; removed duplicates; screened the titles, abstracts, and full texts by using criteria; and extracted data from the eligible articles. The variations among the studies were examined by using Cochrane, Q.; I2, and meta-regression. Out of 11,975 articles that were obtained from the databases and screened, 559 studies were abstracted, and then, where appropriate, were analyzed by meta-analysis (n = 542). COVID-19-related severe illness, admission to the ICU, and death were significantly correlated with comorbidities, male sex, and an age older than 60 or 65 years, although high heterogeneity was present in the pooled estimates. The study design, the study country, the sample size, and the year of publication contributed to this. There was publication bias among the studies that compared the odds of COVID-19-related deaths, severe illness, and admission to the ICU on the basis of the comorbidity status. While an older age and chronic diseases were shown to increase the risk of developing severe illness, admission to the ICU, and death among the COVID-19 patients in our analysis, a marked heterogeneity was present when linking the specific risks with the outcomes.

Potential of Natural Alkaloids From Jadwar (Delphinium denudatum) as Inhibitors Against Main Protease of COVID-19: A Molecular Modeling Approach

The ongoing pandemic coronavirus disease (COVID-19) caused by a novel corona virus, namely, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), has had a major impact on global public health. COVID-19 cases continue to increase across the globe with high mortality rates in immunocompromised patients. There is still a pressing demand for drug discovery and vaccine development against this highly contagious disease. To design and develop antiviral drugs against COVID-19, the main protease (M^pro) has emerged as one of the important drug targets. In this context, the present work explored Jadwar (Delphinium denudatum)-derived natural alkaloids as potential inhibitors against M^pro of SARS-CoV-2 by employing a combination of molecular docking and molecular dynamic simulation-based methods. Molecular docking and interaction profile analysis revealed strong binding on the M^pro functional domain with four natural alkaloids viz. panicutine (-7.4 kcal/mol), vilmorrianone (-7.0 kcal/mol), denudatine (-6.0 kcal/mol), and condelphine (-5.9 kcal/mol). The molecular docking results evaluated by using the MD simulations on 200 nanoseconds confirmed highly stable interactions of these compounds with the M^pro. Additionally, mechanics/generalized Born/Poisson-Boltzmann surface area (MM/G/P/BSA) free energy calculations also affirmed the docking results. Natural alkaloids explored in the present study possess the essential drug-likeness properties, namely, absorption, distribution, metabolism, and excretion (ADME), and are in accordance with Lipinski's rule of five. The results of this study suggest that these four bioactive molecules, namely, condelphine, denudatine, panicutine, and vilmorrianone, might be effective candidates against COVID-19 and can be further investigated using a number of experimental methods.

Impact of diabetes on COVID-19 mortality and hospital outcomes from a global perspective: An umbrella systematic review and meta-analysis

INTRODUCTION

To date, COVID-19 has claimed 4.9 million lives. Diabetes has been identified as an independent risk factor of serious outcomes in people with COVID-19 infection. Whether that holds true across world regions uniformly has not been previously assessed.

METHODS

This study offers the first umbrella systematic review and meta-analysis to analyse the collective and geographically stratified mortality, ICU admission, ventilation requirement, illness severity and discharge rate amongst patients with diabetes. Five databases (EMBASE, MEDLINE, CAB Abstracts, PsychInfo and Web of Science) and 3 additional sources (SSRN's eLibrary, Research Square and MedRxiv) were searched from inception to 30 August 2021. Prospective and retrospective cohort studies, reporting the association between diabetes and one or more COVID-19 hospitalization outcomes, were included. This meta-analysis was registered on PROSPERO, CRD42021278579. Abbreviated MeSH terms used for search were as follows: (Diabetes) AND (2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease), adapted per database requirements. Exclusion criteria exclusion criteria were as follows: (1) none of the primary or secondary outcomes of meta-analysis reported, (2) no confirmed COVID-19 infection (laboratory or clinical) and (3) no unexposed population (solely patients with diabetes included). Quality of the included studies were assessed using the Newcastle-Ottawa Scale (NOS) whilst quality of evidence by the GRADE framework. Studies that were clinically homogeneous were pooled. Summative data and heterogeneity were generated by the Cochrane platform RevMan (V. 5.4).

RESULTS

Overall, 158 observational studies were included, with a total of 270,212 of participants, median age 59 [53-65 IQR] of who 56.5% were male. A total of 22 studies originated from EU, 90 from Far East, 16 from Middle East and 30 from America. Data were synthesized with mixed heterogeneity across outcomes. Pooled results highlighted those patients with diabetes were at a higher risk of COVID-19-related mortality, OR 1.87 [95%CI 1.61, 2.17]. ICU admissions increased across all studies for patients with diabetes, OR 1.59 [95%CI 1.15, 2.18], a result that was mainly skewed by Far East-originating studies, OR 1.94 [95%CI 1.51, 2.49]. Ventilation requirements were also increased amongst patients with diabetes worldwide, OR 1.44 [95%CI 1.20, 1.73] as well as their presentation with severe or critical condition, OR 2.88 [95%CI 2.29, 3.63]. HbA1C levels under <70 mmol and metformin use constituted protective factors in view of COVID-19 mortality, whilst the inverse was true for concurrent insulin use.

CONCLUSIONS

Whilst diabetes constitutes a poor prognosticator for various COVID-19 infection outcomes, variability across world regions is significant and may skew overall trends.

The Impact of Cardiovascular Risk Factors on the Course of COVID-19

Aim of the study: The aim of our review is to indicate and discuss the impact of cardiovascular risk factors, such as obesity, diabetes, lipid profile, hypertension and smoking on the course and mortality of COVID-19 infection. Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic is spreading around the world and becoming a major public health crisis. All coronaviruses are known to affect the cardiovascular system. There is a strong correlation between cardiovascular risk factors and severe clinical complications, including death in COVID-19 patients. All the above-mentioned risk factors are widespread and constitute a significant worldwide health problem. Some of them are modifiable and the awareness of their connection with the COVID-19 progress may have a crucial impact on the current and possible upcoming infection. Data collection: We searched for research papers describing the impact of selected cardiovascular risk factors on the course, severity, complications and mortality of COVID-19 infection form PubMed and Google Scholar databases. Using terms, for example: “COVID-19 cardiovascular disease mortality”, “COVID-19 hypertension/diabetes mellitus/obesity/dyslipidemia”, “cardiovascular risk factors COVID-19 mortality” and other related terms listed in each subtitle. The publications were selected according to the time of their publications between January 2020 and December 2021. From the PubMed database we obtain 1552 results. Further studies were sought by manually searching reference lists of the relevant articles. Relevant articles were selected based on their title, abstract or full text. Articles were excluded if they were clearly related to another subject matter or were not published in English. The types of articles are mainly randomized controlled trial and systematic review. An additional criterion used by researchers was co-morbidities and age of patients in study groups. From a review of the publications, 105 of them were selected for this work with all subheadings included. Findings and Results: The intention of this review was to summarize current knowledge about comorbidities and development of COVID-19 infection. We tried to focus on the course and mortality of the abovementioned virus disease in patients with concomitant CV risk factors. Unfortunately, we were unable to assess the quality of data in screened papers and studies we choose because of the heterogenicity of the groups. The conducted studies had different endpoints and included different groups of patients in terms of nationality, age, race and clinical status. We decide to divide the main subjects of the research into separately described subtitles such as obesity, lipid profile, hypertension, diabetes, smoking. We believe that the studies we included and gathered are very interesting and show modern and present-day clinical data and approaches to COVID-19 infection in specific divisions of patients.

Infectivity of Coronavirus Disease 2019: A Prospective Cohort Study in the Korean Metropolitan Area

BACKGROUND

Although several characteristics of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), an ongoing pandemic disease, have been identified, data on the infectivity of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) are limited.

METHODS

This prospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 based on data of all patients diagnosed with COVID-19 confirmed using real-time polymerase chain reaction test from January to April 2020 in Gyeonggi-do, the largest province in Korea.

RESULTS

Of the 502 patients, 298 consisting of 106 clusters with 5,909 contacts were included. Of these, 277 (93.0%) were symptomatic, and the most common symptoms were cough, fever, sputum, sore throat, and headache. A total of 94 patients (31.5%) had pneumonia, while 8 (2.7%) died during the follow-up period. The secondary attack rate (SAR) in the study population was 3.5% (204/5,909). In exposure settings, the SAR was higher in religious gathering (13.5% [95% confidence interval, 10.7-16.8%]), workplaces (8.49% [95% CI, 6.08-11.74%]), and schools (6.38% [95% CI, 3.39-11.69%]) than in health care facilities (1.92% [95% CI, 1.45-2.55%]). Sore throat at any period, dyspnea at diagnosis or any period, lower cycle threshold value in the lower respiratory tract samples, leukocytosis, and higher bilirubin levels were associated with higher infectivity of COVID-19. The presence of symptoms was not related to the infectivity.

CONCLUSION

In establishing the infection control strategies for COVID-19, the variables associated with high infectivity may be considered.

The innate immune response, microenvironment proteinases, and the COVID-19 pandemic: pathophysiologic mechanisms and emerging therapeutic targets

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, causing considerable mortality and morbidity worldwide, has fully engaged the biomedical community in attempts to elucidate the pathophysiology of COVID-19 and develop robust therapeutic strategies. To this end, the predominant research focus has been on the adaptive immune response to COVID-19 infections stimulated by mRNA and protein vaccines and on the duration and persistence of immune protection. In contrast, the role of the innate immune response to the viral challenge has been underrepresented. This overview focuses on the innate immune response to COVID-19 infection, with an emphasis on the roles of extracellular proteases in the tissue microenvironment. Proteinase-mediated signaling caused by enzymes in the extracellular microenvironment occurs upstream of the increased production of inflammatory cytokines that mediate COVID-19 pathology. These enzymes include the coagulation cascade, kinin-generating plasma kallikrein, and the complement system, as well as angiotensin-generating proteinases of the renin–angiotensin system. Furthermore, in the context of several articles in this Supplement elucidating and detailing the trajectory of diverse profibrotic pathways, we extrapolate these insights to explore how fibrosis and profibrotic pathways participate importantly in the pathogenesis of COVID-19. We propose that the lessons garnered from understanding the roles of microenvironment proteinases in triggering the innate immune response to COVID-19 pathology will identify potential therapeutic targets and inform approaches to the clinical management of COVID-19. Furthermore, the information may also provide a template for understanding the determinants of COVID-19–induced tissue fibrosis that may follow resolution of acute infection (so-called “long COVID”), which represents a major new challenge to our healthcare systems.

Data-Driven Prediction for COVID-19 Severity in Hospitalized Patients

Clinicians urgently need reliable and stable tools to predict the severity of COVID-19 infection for hospitalized patients to enhance the utilization of hospital resources and supplies. Published COVID-19 related guidelines are frequently being updated, which impacts its utilization as a stable go-to resource for informing clinical and operational decision-making processes. In addition, many COVID-19 patient-level severity prediction tools that were developed during the early stages of the pandemic failed to perform well in the hospital setting due to many challenges including data availability, model generalization, and clinical validation. This study describes the experience of a large tertiary hospital system network in the Middle East in developing a real-time severity prediction tool that can assist clinicians in matching patients with appropriate levels of needed care for better management of limited health care resources during COVID-19 surges. It also provides a new perspective for predicting patients’ COVID-19 severity levels at the time of hospital admission using comprehensive data collected during the first year of the pandemic in the hospital. Unlike many previous studies for a similar population in the region, this study evaluated 4 machine learning models using a large training data set of 1386 patients collected between March 2020 and April 2021. The study uses comprehensive COVID-19 patient-level clinical data from the hospital electronic medical records (EMR), vital sign monitoring devices, and Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) machines. The data were collected, prepared, and leveraged by a panel of clinical and data experts to develop a multi-class data-driven framework to predict severity levels for COVID-19 infections at admission time. Finally, this study provides results from a prospective validation test conducted by clinical experts in the hospital. The proposed prediction framework shows excellent performance in concurrent validation (n=462 patients, March 2020–April 2021) with highest discrimination obtained with the random forest classification model, achieving a macro- and micro-average area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.83 and 0.87, respectively. The prospective validation conducted by clinical experts (n=185 patients, April–May 2021) showed a promising overall prediction performance with a recall of 78.4–90.0% and a precision of 75.0–97.8% for different severity classes.

Predicting Severe Disease and Critical Illness on Initial Diagnosis of COVID-19: Simple Triage Tools

Rationale

This study was conducted to develop, validate, and compare prediction models for severe disease and critical illness among symptomatic patients with confirmed COVID-19.

Methods

For development cohort, 433 symptomatic patients diagnosed with COVID-19 between April 15th 2020 and June 30th, 2020 presented to Tawam Public Hospital, Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates were included in this study. Our cohort included both severe and non-severe patients as all cases were admitted for purpose of isolation as per hospital policy. We examined 19 potential predictors of severe disease and critical illness that were recorded at the time of initial assessment. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to construct predictive models. Discrimination was assessed by the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC). Calibration and goodness of fit of the models were assessed. A cohort of 213 patients assessed at another public hospital in the country during the same period was used to validate the models.

Results

One hundred and eighty-six patients were classified as severe while the remaining 247 were categorized as non-severe. For prediction of progression to severe disease, the three independent predictive factors were age, serum lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) and serum albumin (ALA model). For progression to critical illness, the four independent predictive factors were age, serum LDH, kidney function (eGFR), and serum albumin (ALKA model). The AUC for the ALA and ALKA models were 0.88 (95% CI, 0.86–0.89) and 0.85 (95% CI, 0.83–0.86), respectively. Calibration of the two models showed good fit and the validation cohort showed excellent discrimination, with an AUC of 0.91 (95% CI, 0.83–0.99) for the ALA model and 0.89 (95% CI, 0.80–0.99) for the ALKA model. A free web-based risk calculator was developed.

Conclusions

The ALA and ALKA predictive models were developed and validated based on simple, readily available clinical and laboratory tests assessed at presentation. These models may help frontline clinicians to triage patients for admission or discharge, as well as for early identification of patients at risk of developing critical illness.

A predictive score at admission for respiratory failure among hospitalized patients with confirmed 2019 Coronavirus Disease: a simple tool for a complex problem

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has implacably stricken on the wellness of many countries and their health-care systems. The aim of the present study is to analyze the clinical characteristics of the initial wave of patients with COVID-19 attended in our center, and to identify the key variables predicting the development of respiratory failure. Prospective design study with concurrent data retrieval from automated medical records of all hospitalized adult patients who tested positive for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) rRT-PCR assay performed on respiratory samples from March 2nd to 18th, 2020. Patients were followed up to May 1st, 2020 or death. Respiratory failure was defined as a PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio ≤ 200 mm Hg or the need for mechanical ventilation (either non-invasive positive pressure ventilation or invasive mechanical ventilation). We included 521 patients of whom 416 (81%) had abnormal Chest X-ray on admission. Median age was 64.6 ± 18.2 years. One hundred eighty-one (34.7%) developed respiratory failure after a median time from onset of symptoms of 9 days (IQR 6-11). In-hospital mortality was 23.8% (124/521). The modeling process concluded into a logistic regression multivariable analysis and a predictive score at admission. Age, peripheral pulse oximetry, lymphocyte count, lactate dehydrogenase and C-reactive protein were the selected variables. The model has a good discriminative capacity with an area under the ROC curve of 0.85 (0.82-0.88). The application of a simple and reliable score at admission seems to be a useful tool to predict respiratory failure in hospitalized COVID-19 patients.

The Relationship Between Vitamin D Status and the Clinical Severity of COVID-19 Infection: A Retrospective Single-Center Analysis

Background and objective

Some studies have suggested a potential protective role of vitamin D in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients, and this has led to a debate on the topic in the medical community. However, the reported data on the number of hospitalized patients who were vitamin D-deficient is not convincing. In light of this, the aim of the present study was to explore if vitamin D deficiency is correlated with severity and mortality rates of COVID-19 infection in hospitalized COVID-19 patients at a tertiary care hospital in Greece.

Methods

We conducted a single-center retrospective study involving 71 patients hospitalized with COVID-19 from August to October 2020. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) level was assessed in all patients within 48 hours of hospital admission. Serum 25(OH)D level ≤20 ng/ml was defined as a deficiency, while that >20 ng/ml as repletion. The primary outcomes of the infection were classified as partial/complete recovery and mortality during hospitalization. The secondary outcomes were blood markers of inflammation and thrombosis.

Results

Among the 71 COVID-19-positive patients [mean age: 63 years, range: 20-97; male (n=47; 66.2%): female (n=24; 33.8%)] who were enrolled in the study, 46 (64.8%) patients had 25(OH)D levels ≤20 ng/ml and 25 (35.2%) had a level >20 ng/ml. According to the patients' medical history, 55 patients (77.5%) had comorbidities. It appears that vitamin D deficiency (<20 ng/ml) significantly correlated with elevated biochemical markers such as procalcitonin and troponin (p<0.001). Moreover, male gender, advanced age (>60 years), and comorbidities were positively associated with more severe COVID-19 infection (elevated inflammation markers, radiographic findings on X-rays, and increased length of hospital stay).

Conclusion

These preliminary findings show that vitamin D status among the patients was not related to the severity of COVID-19 infection.

Impact of cancer diagnoses on the outcomes of patients with COVID-19: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

The COVID-19 has caused significant mortality and morbidity across the globe. Patients with cancer are especially vulnerable given their immunocompromised state. We aimed to determine the proportion of COVID-19 patients with cancer, their severity and mortality outcomes through a systematic review and meta-analysis (MA).

METHODS

Systematic review was performed through online databases, PubMed, Medline and Google Scholar, with keywords listed in the Methods section (1 November 2019-31 December 2020). Studies with clinical outcomes of at least 10 COVID-19 patients and at least one with a diagnosis of cancer were included. The studies for MA were assessed with PRISMA guidelines and appraised with Newcastle-Ottawa Scale. The data were pooled using a random-effects model using STATA software. The main outcomes were planned before data collection, including proportion of patients with cancer among COVID-19 populations, relative risk (RR) of severe outcomes and death of patients with cancer compared with general COVID-19 patients.

RESULTS

We identified 57 case series (63 413 patients), with 230 patients with cancer with individual patient data (IPD). We found that the pooled proportion of cancer among COVID-19 patients was 0.04 (95% CI 0.03 to 0.05, I²=97.69%, p<0.001). The pooled RR of death was 1.44 (95% CI 1.19 to 1.76) between patients with cancer and the general population with COVID-19 infection. The pooled RR of severe outcome was 1.49 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.87) between cancer and general COVID-19 patients. The presence of lung cancer and stage IV cancer did not result in significantly increased RR of severe outcome. Among the available IPD, only age and gender were associated with severe outcomes.

CONCLUSION

Patients with cancer were at a higher risk of severe and death outcomes from COVID-19 infection as compared with general COVID-19 populations. Limitations of this study include publication bias. A collaborative effort is required for a more complete database.

Outcomes of patients with HIV and COVID-19 co-infection: a systematic review and meta-analysis

BACKGROUND

Data on the association of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection with adverse outcomes in patients with COVID-19 are conflicting. This systematic review and meta-analysis aimed to summarize the available information on the risk of hospitalization, severe disease, and death attributable to HIV in patients with COVID-19.

METHODS

PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and SCOPUS were searched through October 25, 2021, to identify relevant studies, without language restriction. A random-effects model was used to pool estimates.

RESULTS

We included 44 studies reporting information from 38,971,065 patients with COVID-19. The pooled prevalence of HIV among COVID-19 patients was 26.9 ‰ (95% CI 22.7-31.3) and was significantly higher in studies conducted in Africa compared to those conducted elsewhere (118.5‰ [95% CI 84.8-156.9, 11 studies] vs 10.9‰ [95% CI 8.8-13.2, 27 studies]). In pooled analyses of unadjusted odds ratio, HIV-positive individuals were more likely to be admitted to hospital (OR: 1.49; 95% CI 1.01-2.21, 6 studies) compared to HIV-negative individuals. In the adjusted (for age and sex) analyses, HIV was associated with an increased risk of death (hazard ratio: 1.76, 95% CI 1.31-2.35, 2 studies). However, HIV was not associated with the severity of the disease (OR: 1.28; 95% CI 0.77-2.13, 13 studies), or death (OR: 0.81; 95% CI 0.47; 1.41, 23 studies) in patients with COVID-19 in the meta-analysis of unadjusted odds ratio.

CONCLUSION

Our findings suggest that patients with HIV have an increased risk of hospital admission for COVID-19. HIV seems to be independently associated with increased risk of mortality in COVID-19 patient in adjusted analysis. However, this evidence was derived from only two studies.

Emergency room comprehensive assessment of demographic, radiological, laboratory and clinical data of patients with COVID-19: determination of its prognostic value for in-hospital mortality

Mortality risk in COVID-19 patients is determined by several factors. The aim of our study was to adopt an integrated approach based on clinical, laboratory and chest x-ray (CXR) findings collected at the patient's admission to Emergency Room (ER) to identify prognostic factors. Retrospective study on 346 consecutive patients admitted to the ER of two North-Western Italy hospitals between March 9 and April 10, 2020 with clinical suspicion of COVID-19 confirmed by reverse transcriptase-polymerase reaction chain test (RT-PCR), CXR performed within 24 h (analyzed with two different scores) and recorded prognosis. Clinical and laboratory data were collected. Statistical analysis on the features of 83 in-hospital dead vs 263 recovered patients was performed with univariate (uBLR), multivariate binary logistic regression (mBLR) and ROC curve analysis. uBLR identified significant differences for several variables, most of them intertwined by multiple correlations. mBLR recognized as significant independent predictors for in-hospital mortality age > 75 years, C-reactive protein (CRP) > 60 mg/L, PaO₂/FiO₂ ratio (P/F) < 250 and CXR "Brixia score" > 7. Among the patients with at least two predictors, the in-hospital mortality rate was 58% against 6% for others [p < 0.0001; RR = 7.6 (4.4-13)]. Patients over 75 years had three other predictors in 35% cases against 10% for others [p < 0.0001, RR = 3.5 (1.9-6.4)]. The greatest risk of death from COVID-19 was age above 75 years, worsened by elevated CRP and CXR score and reduced P/F. Prompt determination of these data at admission to the emergency department could improve COVID-19 pretreatment risk stratification.

Coronavirus disease 2019 in healthy children: What is the effect of household contact?

BACKGROUND

Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in children is milder than in adults. Household virus exposure may affect clinical severity. We aimed to determine the household contact history of patients and its influence on the clinical stage.

METHODS

One hundred and seventy-three pediatric patients with COVID-19 as diagnosed with positive real-time polymerase chain reaction for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 aged 1 month to 18 years were included. Demographic data, laboratory and clinical findings, and the history of household contact of the patients were obtained. They were classified according to their clinical stage as mild or moderate-severe.

RESULTS

Sixty patients (34.7%) were asymptomatic, and 113 were symptomatic (65.3%). Of the 173 patients, 138 (79.8%) had at least one family member in the household who was diagnosed as having COVID-19. Hemoglobin, absolute neutrophil count, and absolute neutrophil count /absolute lymphocyte count ratio decreased significantly in patients with household contact. The presence of a household contact did not have a significant effect on the presence of symptoms, clinical course, age, and the sex of the patients. The need for hospitalization was less in the group that had household contact. Being 0-12 months, being female, and being a patient without household contact were independent factors associated with higher hospitalization ratios in logistic regression analysis.

CONCLUSIONS

In this study, we found that household contact history did not significantly affect presenting symptoms and clinical course. We detected the rate of hospitalization to be less in the group with only household contact.

Impact of the COVID-19 Pandemic on Glycemic Control and Blood Pressure Control in Patients with Diabetes in Japan

Objective In this study, we investigated whether and how the COVID-19 pandemic affected glycemic control and blood pressure (BP) control in patients with diabetes mellitus (DM). Methods DM patients whose HbA1c level was measured regularly before and after the declaration of a state of emergency were included in this study. Some patients were given questionnaires about changes in their lifestyle to determine the factors affecting glycemic control and BP control. Results The median HbA1c level of the 804 patients increased significantly from 6.8% before the state of emergency to 7.1% and 7.0% during and after the state of emergency, respectively. This was in contrast to the decrease one year earlier due to seasonal variations. In the 176 patients who responded to the questionnaire, the HbA1c level also increased significantly during and after the state of emergency. The worsening of glycemic control was more pronounced in the group that had achieved HbA1c of <7% before the state of emergency than in those with higher values. Unlike the rise in HbA1c, the BP did not rise during the state of emergency but did rise significantly afterwards. There was no marked decrease in HbA1c or BP after the state of emergency, even in patients who responded that they were much more careful with their diet, ate less, or exercised more. Conclusions The COVID-19 pandemic worsened glycemic control and BP control, even in patients who perceived no marked change in their diet or exercise, suggesting that more active lifestyle guidance is necessary for good treatment of DM patients.

Are Older People Really More Susceptible to SARS-CoV-2?

Since the outbreak, COVID-19 has spread rapidly across the globe due to its high infectivity and lethality. Age appears to be one of the key factors influencing the status and progression of SARS-CoV-2 infection, as multiple reports indicated that the majority of COVID-19 infections and severe cases are elderly. Most people simply assume that the elderly are more susceptible to SARS-CoV-2 than the young, but the mechanism behind it is still open to question. The older and younger people are at similar risk of infection because their infection process is the same and they must be exposed to the virus first. However, whether they will get sick after exposure to the virus and how their disease progresses depend on their immune mechanisms. In older populations, inflammation and immune aging reduce their ability to resist SARS-CoV-2 infection. Meanwhile, under the influence of comorbidities, ACE2 receptor and various cytokines undergo corresponding changes, thus accelerating the entry, replication, and transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the body, promoting disease progression, and leading to severe illness and even death. In addition, the relatively fragile mental state of the elderly can also affect their timely recovery from COVID-19. Therefore, once older people are infected with SARS-CoV-2, they are more prone to severe illness and death with a poor prognosis, and they should strengthen protection to avoid exposure to the virus.

The association of cultural and contextual factors with social contact avoidance during the COVID-19 pandemic

As a first line of defense to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, people reduced social contacts to avoid pathogen exposure. Using a panel of countries, this research suggests that this was amplified in societies characterized by high social support and future orientation. People reacted more strongly in dense environments; government orders had more effect in high power distance societies. Conversely, a focus on accomplishments was associated with lower changes. Understanding people’s actual behaviors in response to health threats across societies is of great importance for epidemiology, public health, international business, and for the functioning of humanity as a whole.

Recent Advancements on COVID-19: A Comprehensive Review

Over the last few decades, there have been several global outbreaks of severe respiratory infections. The causes of these outbreaks were coronaviruses that had infected birds, mammals and humans. The outbreaks predominantly caused respiratory tract and gastrointestinal tract symptoms and other mild to very severe clinical signs. The current coronavirus disease-2019 (COVID-19) outbreak, caused by the novel severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), is a rapidly spreading illness affecting millions of people worldwide. Among the countries most affected by the disease are the United States of America (USA), India, Brazil, and Russia, with France recording the highest infection, morbidity, and mortality rates. Since early January 2021, thousands of articles have been published on COVID-19. Most of these articles were consistent with the reports on the mode of transmission, spread, duration, and severity of the sickness. Thus, this review comprehensively discusses the most critical aspects of COVID-19, including etiology, epidemiology, pathogenesis, clinical signs, transmission, pathological changes, diagnosis, treatment, prevention and control, and vaccination.

Weight control practices among the Saudi Arabian population during the Covid-19 lockdown

Objectives:

Physical activity appears to be essential to maintain health during the COVID-19 pandemic, specifically for those at high risk, because of its advantages mentally as well as physically. This study determines weight control behaviors among the Saudi population during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods:

The study was a cross-sectional survey of Saudis aged 18–60 and residents in the country during the lockdown period. The study sample was 384 people obtained from the Leslie formula for sample size calculations. The population covered all Saudi regions.

Results:

A total of 397 people responded to the survey. Among these people, 196 (49.4%) were male and 201 (50.6%) were female. The majority of them were urban residents (288; 72.5%). One hundred seventy-five (44.1%) had engaged in healthy behavior for weight control during the COVID-19. Factors that significantly affected these healthy behaviors were gender, employment, and educational level (P value <0.05). During pandemic, certain activities and behaviors were affected (P value < 0.05), including smoking (36; 9.1%), exercising (255; 64.2%), dieting for weight loss (98; 24.7%), dieting for weight maintenance (102; 25.7%), regular dieting before COVID-19 (112; 28.2%), and maintaining exercise after pandemic (194; 48.9%). Other significantly affected healthy behaviors were decreasing food intake (301; 75.8%; P value 0.01) and eating less meat (200; 50.4%; P value 0.00).

Conclusions:

Healthy behavior for weight control during the COVID-19 pandemic was reported by less than half of the study population. Minority (15.6%) engaged in at least one unhealthy or extreme weight loss practice. Healthy behavior was significantly influenced by gender, employment, and educational level.

A new predictor for indicating clinical severity and prognosis in COVID-19 patients: Frontal QRS-T angle

Objective

COVID-19; It spread rapidly around the world and led to a global pandemic. Indicators of poor prognosis are important in the treatment and follow-up of COVID-19 patients and have always been a matter of interest to researchers. The aim of this study was to investigate the relationship between frontal QRS-T angle values and clinical severity and prognosis in COVID-19 patients.

Methods

This prospective case-control study was conducted with 130 COVID-19 patients whose diagnosis was confirmed by reverse transcriptase-polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) and 100 healthy controls. The CURB-65 score was used as the clinical severity score.

Results

A total of 130 patients and 100 healthy controls were included in the study. When the patient and control groups were compared a significant difference was found between QT (378.07 ± 33.75 vs. 368.63 ± 19.65, p < 0.001), QTc (410.79 ± 28.19 vs. 403.68 ± 11.70, p < 0.001), QRS time (95.04 ± 21.67 vs. 91.42 ± 11.08, p < 0.001) and frontal QRS-T angle (36.57 ± 22.86 vs. 22.72 ± 14.08, p < 0.001). According to clinical severity scoring, QT (370.27 ± 25.20 vs. 387.75 ± 40.19, p = 0.003), QTc (402.18 ± 19.92 vs. 421.48 ± 33.08, p < 0.001), frontal QRS-T angle (32.25 ± 18.79 vs. 41.94 ± 26.27), p = 0.0.16) parameters were found to be significantly different. Age (odds ratio [OR], 1.201; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.111–1.298; p < 0.001) and frontal QRS-T angle ([OR], 1.045; 95% [CI], 1.015–1.075; p = 0.003) values were found to be an independent predictor for the severity of the disease. Frontal QRS-T angle ([OR], 1.101; 95% [CI], 1.030–1.176; p = 0.004), and CRP ([OR], 1.029; 95% [CI], 1.007–1.051; p = 0.01) parameters were found to be independent predictors for the mortality of the disease. As a mortality indicator; for the frontal QRS-T angle of ≥44.5°, specificity and sensitivity were 93.8% and 84.2%, respectively.

Conclusion

Frontal QRS-T angle can be used as a reproducible, convenient, inexpensive, new and powerful predictor in determining the clinical severity and prognosis of COVID-19 patients.

Epicardial and pericoronary adipose tissue in severe COVID-19 infection

OBJECTIVE

To investigate the association between epicardial and pericoronary adipose tissue thicknesses measured with computed tomography (CT) and severity of COVID-19 infection.

METHODS

We recruited 504 patients admitted with RT-PCR-proven diagnosis of COVID-19 infection and underwent simultaneous Chest CT scanning. Epicardial adipose tissue thickness (EAT) and pericardial adipose tissue thickness (PCAT) were measured by CT. Comparisons were performed between ICU admitting and non-ICU admitting patients were performed.

RESULTS

Of 504 patients, 423 patients were hospitalised in normal wards or followed as outpatient, and 81 patients were admitted to ICU. EAT and PCAT were significantly increased in ICU patients (5.98[5.06-7.13] mm vs. 8.05[6.90-9.89] mm, p < 0.001 and 9.3[7.4-11.5] mm vs. 11.2[10.3-13.2] mm, p < 0.001, respectively). In multiple logistic regression analyses, EAT and PCAT were independent predictors of ICU admission. A cut-off point of 6.64 mm EAT has a sensitivity of 82.7% and a specificity of 66.7% (AUC = 0.789, 95% CI: 0.744-0.833, p < 0.001) and a cut-off point of 9.85 mm PCAT has a sensitivity of 91.4% and a specificity of 61.2% (AUC = 0.744, 95% CI: 0.700-0.788, p < 0.001).

CONCLUSION

We found that both increased EAT and PCAT were associated with the severity of COVID-19 infection defined as the need for ICU admission.