Evaluation of historical control data in carcinogenicity studies

The calculation of historical control limits in toxicology: Do's, don'ts and open issues from a statistical perspective

For reporting toxicology studies, the presentation of historical control data and the validation of the concurrent control group with respect to historical control limits have become requirements. However, many regulatory guidelines fail to define how such limits should be calculated and what kind of target value(s) they should cover. Hence, this manuscript is aimed to give a brief review on the methods for the calculation of historical control limits that are in use as well as on their theoretical background. Furthermore, this manuscript is aimed to identify open issues for the use of historical control limits that need to be discussed by the community. It seems that, even after 40 years of discussion, more issues remain open than solved, both, with regard to the available methodology as well as its implementation in user-friendly software. Since several of these topics equally apply to several research fields, this manuscript is addressed to all relevant stakeholders who deal with historical control data obtained from toxicological studies, regardless of their background or field of research.

Retrospective analysis of the potential use of virtual control groups in preclinical toxicity assessment using the eTOX database

Virtual Control Groups (VCGs) based on Historical Control Data (HCD) in preclinical toxicity testing have the potential to reduce animal usage. As a case study we retrospectively analyzed the impact of replacing Concurrent Control Groups (CCGs) with VCGs on the treatment-relatedness of 28 selected histopathological findings reported in either rat or dog in the eTOX database. We developed a novel methodology whereby statistical predictions of treatment-relatedness using either CCGs or VCGs of varying covariate similarity to CCGs were compared to designations from original toxicologist reports; and changes in agreement were used to quantify changes in study outcomes. Generally, the best agreement was achieved when CCGs were replaced with VCGs with the highest level of similarity; the same species, strain, sex, administration route, and vehicle. For example, balanced accuracies for rat findings were 0.704 (predictions based on CCGs) vs. 0.702 (predictions based on VCGs). Moreover, we identified covariates which resulted in poorer identification of treatment-relatedness. This was related to an increasing incidence rate divergence in HCD relative to CCGs. Future databases which collect data at the individual animal level including study details such as animal age and testing facility are required to build adequate VCGs to accurately identify treatment-related effects.

Statistical analysis of preclinical inter-species concordance of histopathological findings in the eTOX database

Preclinical inter-species concordance can increase the predictivity of observations to the clinic, potentially reducing drug attrition caused by unforeseen adverse events. We quantified inter-species concordance of histopathological findings and target organ toxicities across four preclinical species in the eTOX database using likelihood ratios (LRs). This was done whilst only comparing findings between studies with similar compound exposure (Δ|C_max| ≤ 1 log-unit), repeat-dosing duration, and animals of the same sex. We discovered 24 previously unreported significant inter-species associations between histopathological findings encoded by the HPATH ontology. More associations with strong positive concordance (33% LR+ > 10) relative to strong negative concordance (12.5% LR- < 0.1) were identified. Of the top 10 most positively concordant associations, 60% were computed between different histopathological findings indicating potential differences in inter-species pathogenesis. We also observed low inter-species target organ toxicity concordance. For example, liver toxicity concordance in short-term studies between female rats and dogs observed an average LR+ of 1.84, and an average LR- of 0.73. This was corroborated by similarly low concordance between rodents and non-rodents for 75 candidate drugs in AstraZeneca. This work provides new statistically significant associations between preclinical species, but finds that concordance is rare, particularly between the absence of findings.

Hurdles and signposts on the road to virtual control groups-A case study illustrating the influence of anesthesia protocols on electrolyte levels in rats

Introduction: Virtual Control Groups (VCGs) represent the concept of using historical control data from legacy animal studies to replace concurrent control group (CCG) animals. Based on the data curation and sharing activities of the Innovative Medicine Initiatives project eTRANSAFE (enhancing TRANSlational SAFEty Assessment through Integrative Knowledge Management) the ViCoG working group was established with the objectives of i) collecting suitable historical control data sets from preclinical toxicity studies, ii) evaluating statistical methodologies for building adequate and regulatory acceptable VCGs from historical control data, and iii) sharing those control-group data across multiple pharmaceutical companies. During the qualification process of VCGs a particular focus was put on the identification of hidden confounders in the data sets, which might impair the adequate matching of VCGs with the CCG. Methods: During our analyses we identified such a hidden confounder, namely, the choice of the anesthetic procedure used in animal experiments before blood withdrawal. Anesthesia using CO₂ may elevate the levels of some electrolytes such as calcium in blood, while the use of isoflurane is known to lower these values. Identification of such hidden confounders is particularly important if the underlying experimental information (e.g., on the anesthetic procedure) is not routinely recorded in the standard raw data files, such as SEND (Standard for Exchange of Non-clinical Data). We therefore analyzed how the replacement of CCGs with VCGs would affect the reproducibility of treatment-related findings regarding electrolyte values (potassium, calcium, sodium, and phosphate). The analyses were performed using a legacy rat systemic toxicity study consisting of a control and three treatment groups conducted according to pertinent OECD guidelines. In the report of this study treatment-related hypercalcemia was reported. The rats in this study were anesthetized with isoflurane. Results: Replacing the CCGs with VCGs derived from studies comprising both anesthetics resulted in a shift of control electrolyte parameters. Instead of the originally reported hypercalcemia the use of VCG led to fallacious conclusions of no observed effect or hypocalcemia. Discussion: Our study highlights the importance of a rigorous statistical analysis including the detection and elimination of hidden confounders prior to the implementation of the VCG concept.

Pathologists' perspective on the study design, analysis, and interpretation of proliferative lesions in lifetime and prenatal rodent carcinogenicity bioassays of aspartame

Aspartame, an artificial sweetener commonly used as a sugar substitute, is currently authorized for use in more than 100 countries. Hundreds of studies, conducted in various countries dating back to the 1970s, have shown that aspartame is safe at real-world exposure levels. Furthermore, multiple human epidemiology studies have provided no indication that consumption of aspartame induces cancer. Given the continued controversy surrounding the Ramazzini Institute's (RI) studies suggesting that aspartame is a carcinogenic hazard in rodents and evaluation by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, this report aims to provide the perspective of experienced pathologists on publicly available pathology data regarding purported proliferative lesions in liver, lung, lymphoid organs, and mammary gland as well as their implications for human risk assessment as reported for three lifetime rodent carcinogenicity bioassays of aspartame conducted at the RI. In the authors' view, flaws in the design, methodology and reporting of the RI aspartame studies limit the utility of the data sets as evidence that this agent represents a carcinogenic hazard. Therefore, all three RI studies, and particularly the accuracy of their pathology diagnoses and interpretations, should be rigorously reviewed by qualified and experienced veterinary toxicologic pathologists in assessing aspartame's carcinogenic risk.

New Evidences about the Carcinogenic Effects of Ochratoxin A and Possible Prevention by Target Feed Additives

A review of the carcinogenic effects of ochratoxin A (OTA) on various tissues and internal organs in laboratory and farm animals is made. Suggestions are made regarding how to recognize and differentiate the common spontaneous neoplastic changes characteristic for advanced age and the characteristic neoplasia in different tissues and organs in laboratory animals/poultry exposed to OTA. The synergistic effects of OTA together with its natural combination of penicillic acid are also investigated regarding possible carcinogenic effects. The malignancy and the target location of OTA-induced neoplasia is studied. The sex-differences of such neoplasia are investigated in the available literature. The time of appearance of the first neoplasia is investigated in long-term carcinogenic studies with OTA-treated animals. The possibility of target feed additives or herbs to counteract the toxic and carcinogenic effects of OTA is studied in the available literature. Some effective manners of prophylaxis and/or prevention against OTA contamination of feedstuffs/foods or animal production are suggested. The suitability of various laboratory animals to serve as experimental model for humans with regard to OTA-induced tumorigenesis is investigated.

Effects of radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF EMF) on cancer in laboratory animal studies

BACKGROUND

The carcinogenicity of radiofrequency electromagnetic fields (RF EMF) has been evaluated by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) in 2011. Based on limited evidence of carcinogenicity in humans and in animals, RF EMF were classified as possibly carcinogenic to humans (Group 2B). In 2018, based on a survey amongst RF experts, WHO prioritized six major topics of potential RF EMF related human health effects for systematic reviews. In the current manuscript, we present the protocol for the systematic review of experimental laboratory animal studies (cancer bioassays) on exposure to RF fields on the outcome of cancer in laboratory animals.

OBJECTIVE

In the framework of WHO's Radiation Program, the aim of this work is to systematically evaluate effects of RF EMF exposure on cancer in laboratory animals.

STUDY ELIGIBILITY AND CRITERIA

WHO's Handbook (2014) for guideline development will be followed with appropriate adaptation. The selection of eligible studies will be based on Population, Exposures, Comparators, and Outcomes (PECO) criteria. We will include peer-reviewed articles and publicly available reports from government agencies reporting original data about animal cancer bioassays on exposure to RF EMF. The studies are identified by searching the following databases: MEDLINE (PubMed), Science Citation Index Expanded and Emerging Sources Citation Indes (Web of Science), Scopus, and the EMF Portal. No language or year-of-publication restrictions are applied. The methods and results of eligible studies will be presented in accordance with the PRISMA 2020 guidelines.

STUDY APPRAISAL METHOD

Study evaluation of individual studies will be assessed using a risk of bias (RoB) tool developed by the Office of Health Assessment and Translation (OHAT) with appropriate considerations including sensitivity for evaluating RF EMF exposure in animal cancer bioassays. The final evaluation on the certainty of the evidence on a carcinogenic risk of RF EMF exposure in experimental animals will be performed using the OHAT Grading of Recommendations Assessment, Development and Evaluation (GRADE) approach with appropriate considerations. The protocol has been registered in an open-source repository (PROSPERO).

FUNDING

The study is partly financially supported by the World Health Organization. No additional funding was provided outside author salaries through their places of employment.

Follow up long term preliminary studies on carcinogenic and toxic effects of ochratoxin A in rats and the putative protection of phenylalanine

Carcinogenic effects of ochratoxin A (OTA) on liver, kidneys, intestine, lung and eyes of Wistar rats exposed to 10 ppm or 5 ppm OTA in the diet and additionally supplemented or not with phenylalanine (PHE) were examined during 24-months experimental period. OTA was seen to provoke strong degenerative changes and slight pericapillary oedema in most internal organs, e.g. kidneys, liver, intestine, spleen and brain. Six of total nine neoplasms were identified as malignant and three as benign. Five of total six malignant neoplasms and two of total three benign neoplasms were seen in male rats. The pathological finding in rats after two weeks feeding with OTA-contaminated feed was dominated by degenerative changes in various internal organs, which were weaker in the group additionally supplemented with PHE. The protective effect of PHE was evident with respect to OTA-induced decrease of serum glucose and serum protein, but this protection was not singnificant with respect to serum enzymes activity. The number of neoplasms in PHE-supplemented group exposed to 10 ppm OTA was similar to that in the group exposed to twice lower feed levels of OTA alone, suggesting about a possible protective effect of PHE. The rats would not be able to serve as experimental model for humans with regard to OTA-induced tumorigenesis, because the target organ of OTA-toxicity in humans and pigs is mainly the kidney as opposed to the significant damages and carcinogenic effects seen in various organs in rats exposed to OTA.

The effect of Propolis on inhibition of Aspergillus parasiticus growth, aflatoxin production and expression of aflatoxin biosynthesis pathway genes

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE

Aflatoxins are one of the most important mycotoxins, which have been classified as Group I carcinogenic compounds by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. This investigation aimed to examine the effect of Propolis on inhibition of the Aspergillus parasiticus growth, aflatoxin production and expression of aflatoxin biosynthesis pathway genes.

MATERIALS AND METHODS

A standard strain of Aspergillus parasiticus (ATCC 15517) was used to perform antifungal susceptibility test, using a microdilution method in accordance with the CLSI M38-A2 guidelines. The aflatoxin concentrations in the control and treated media were determined by HPLC. Also, the quantitative changes in the level of nor-1, ver-1 and omtA genes expression in aflatoxin biosynthetic pathway were analyzed using Real-Time PCR method.

RESULTS

The results showed that the minimum inhibitory concentrations (MIC) of propolis was 100 µg/ml. The results showed that total levels of aflatoxin decreased from 386.1 ppm to 3.01 ppm at 50 µg/ml of propolis. In addition, quantitative real-time PCR analysis showed that the level of nor-1, ver-1 and omtA genes expression was significantly decreased after treatment with propolis extract.

CONCLUSIONS

The findings reveal that propolis extract, have a significant inhibitory effect on important genes for aflatoxin biosynthesis pathway in aflatoxin production.

Prediction intervals for overdispersed binomial data with application to historical controls

Bioassays are highly standardized trials for assessing the impact of a chemical compound on a model organism. In that context, it is standard to compare several treatment groups with an untreated control. If the same type of bioassay is carried out several times, the amount of information about the historical controls rises with every new study. This information can be applied to predict the outcome of one future control using a prediction interval. Since the observations are counts of success out of a given sample size, like mortality or histopathological findings, the data can be assumed to be binomial but may exhibit overdispersion caused by the variability between historical studies. We describe two approaches that account for overdispersion: asymptotic prediction intervals using the quasi-binomial assumption and prediction intervals based on the quantiles of the beta-binomial distribution. Both interval types were α-calibrated using bootstrap methods. For an assessment of the intervals coverage probabilities, a simulation study based on various numbers of historical studies and sample sizes as well as different binomial proportions and varying levels of overdispersion was run. It could be shown that α-calibration can improve the coverage probabilities of both interval types. The coverage probability of the calibrated intervals, calculated based on at least 10 historical studies, was satisfactory close to the nominal 95%. In a last step, the intervals were computed based on a real data set from the NTP homepage, using historical controls from bioassays with the mice strain B6C3F1.

Glyphosate toxicity and carcinogenicity: a review of the scientific basis of the European Union assessment and its differences with IARC

Glyphosate is the most widely used herbicide worldwide. It is a broad spectrum herbicide and its agricultural uses increased considerably after the development of glyphosate-resistant genetically modified (GM) varieties. Since glyphosate was introduced in 1974, all regulatory assessments have established that glyphosate has low hazard potential to mammals, however, the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) concluded in March 2015 that it is probably carcinogenic. The IARC conclusion was not confirmed by the EU assessment or the recent joint WHO/FAO evaluation, both using additional evidence. Glyphosate is not the first topic of disagreement between IARC and regulatory evaluations, but has received greater attention. This review presents the scientific basis of the glyphosate health assessment conducted within the European Union (EU) renewal process, and explains the differences in the carcinogenicity assessment with IARC. Use of different data sets, particularly on long-term toxicity/carcinogenicity in rodents, could partially explain the divergent views; but methodological differences in the evaluation of the available evidence have been identified. The EU assessment did not identify a carcinogenicity hazard, revised the toxicological profile proposing new toxicological reference values, and conducted a risk assessment for some representatives uses. Two complementary exposure assessments, human-biomonitoring and food-residues-monitoring, suggests that actual exposure levels are below these reference values and do not represent a public concern.

Carcinogenicity Evaluation: Comparison of Tumor Data from Dual Control Groups in the Sprague–Dawley Rat

Following recent clarification in Europe that a single control group is now acceptable for rodent carcinogenicity studies, the use of dual controls may be reduced or disappear. To date, virtually nothing has been published on whether this latter situation has improved the identification of tumorigenic risk potential in these studies. In this paper, the results of 13 rat carcinogenicity studies, performed between 1991 and 2002, with 2 control groups, are presented. Although no major differences in tumor incidences between these dual control groups were found, some interstudy variation occurred. In cases where a notable difference was seen, the use of 2 control groups, as well as robust, contemporary background data, allowed an easier interpretation of findings in drug-treated groups. Thus, the continued use of dual control groups has a vital role in the assessment of tumoriogenic risk. The paper also presents an update on survival, on the range and extent of background spontaneous neoplasms, and comments on genetic drift in this commonly used rat strain.

Carcinogenicity Evaluation: Comparison of Tumor Data from Dual Control Groups in the CD–1 Mouse

Current regulatory thinking allows for the use of single control groups for rodent carcinogenicity testing although there has been a trend until recently to use dual control groups. To date, virtually nothing has been published on whether a shift from dual to single control groups will affect the identification of tumorigenic risk potential in these studies. A recent evaluation of dual control carcinogenicity data in the rat (Baldrick, Toxicol Pathol 2005, 33: 283–291) showed that although no major differences in tumor incidences between the control groups were found, some interstudy variation occurred and in cases were a notable difference was seen, the use of 2 control groups, as well as robust, contemporary background data, allowed an easier interpretation of findings in drug-treated groups. In this paper, the results of 10 mouse carcinogenicity studies, performed between 1991 and 2004, with 2 control groups, are presented. As in the rat, interstudy variation was seen and in some cases, the use of dual control groups assisted in the tumor risk assessment. Thus, the continued use of 2 control groups can have a vital role in mouse carcinogenicity studies. The paper also presents an update on survival, on the range and extent of background spontaneous neoplasms and comments on genetic drift in this commonly used mouse strain.

A common control group - optimising the experiment design to maximise sensitivity

Methods for choosing an appropriate sample size in animal experiments have received much attention in the statistical and biological literature. Due to ethical constraints the number of animals used is always reduced where possible. However, as the number of animals decreases so the risk of obtaining inconclusive results increases. By using a more efficient experimental design we can, for a given number of animals, reduce this risk. In this paper two popular cases are considered, where planned comparisons are made to compare treatments back to control and when researchers plan to make all pairwise comparisons. By using theoretical and empirical techniques we show that for studies where all pairwise comparisons are made the traditional balanced design, as suggested in the literature, maximises sensitivity. For studies that involve planned comparisons of the treatment groups back to the control group, which are inherently more sensitive due to the reduced multiple testing burden, the sensitivity is maximised by increasing the number of animals in the control group while decreasing the number in the treated groups.

Pathobiology of aging mice and GEM: background strains and experimental design

The use of induced and spontaneous mutant mice and genetically engineered mice (and combinations thereof) to study cancers and other aging phenotypes to advance improved functional human life spans will involve studies of aging mice. Genetic background contributes to pathology phenotypes and to causes of death as well as to longevity. Increased recognition of expected phenotypes, experimental variables that influence phenotypes and research outcomes, and experimental design options and rationales can maximize the utility of genetically engineered mice (GEM) models to translational research on aging. This review aims to provide resources to enhance the design and practice of chronic and longevity studies involving GEM. C57BL6, 129, and FVB/N strains are emphasized because of their widespread use in the generation of knockout, transgenic, and conditional mutant GEM. Resources are included also for pathology of other inbred strain families, including A, AKR, BALB/c, C3H, C57L, C58, CBA, DBA, GR, NOD.scid, SAMP, and SJL/J, and non-inbred mice, including 4WC, AB6F1, Ames dwarf, B6, 129, B6C3F1, BALB/c,129, Het3, nude, SENCAR, and several Swiss stocks. Experimental strategies for long-term cross-sectional and longitudinal studies to assess causes of or contributors to death, disease burden, spectrum of pathology phenotypes, longevity, and functional healthy life spans (health spans) are compared and discussed.

Occurrence of Spontaneous Tumors in the Central Nervous System (CNS) of F344 and SD Rats

In order to accurately assess the carcinogenicity of chemicals with regard to rare tumors such as rat CNS tumors, sufficient information about spontaneous tumors are very important. This paper presents the data on the type, incidence and detected age of CNS tumors in F344/DuCrlCrlj (a total of 1363 males and 1363 females) and Crl:CD(SD) rats (a total of 1650 males and 1705 females) collected from in-house background data-collection studies and control groups of carcinogenicity studies at our laboratory, together with those previously reported in F344 and SD rats. The present data on F344/DuCrlCrlj rats (F344 rats) and Crl:CD(SD) rats (SD rats) clarified the following. (1) The incidences of all CNS tumors observed in F344 rats were less than 1%. (2) The incidences of malignant astrocytoma and granular cell tumor were higher in male SD rats than in female SD rats. (3) The incidences of astrocytoma and granular cell tumor were higher in SD rats than in F344 rats. (4) Among astrocytoma, oligodendroglioma and granular cell tumor, oligodendroglioma was detected at the youngest age, followed by astrocytoma, and ultimately, granular cell tumor developed in both strains. The incidences observed in our study were almost consistent with those previously reported in F344 and SD rats.

Comparison of NTP historical control tumor incidence rates in female Harlan Sprague Dawley and Fischer 344/N Rats

The National Toxicology Program (NTP) has historically used Fischer 344/N (F344/N) rats for the majority of its bioassays. Recently the NTP began using the Harlan Sprague Dawley (SD) as the primary rat model for NTP studies. The NTP had previously used female SD rats in nine bioassays. This article compares historical control (HC) tumor incidence rates from these nine SD rat studies with HC tumor rates from matched NTP F344/N rat bioassays to identify similarities and differences. Matching on sex, laboratory, diet, and route led to nine comparable F344/N rat studies. Our analyses revealed statistically significant strain differences, with female SD rats having lower incidence rates for clitoral gland adenoma (0.2% vs. 5.8%) and mononuclear cell leukemia (0.9% vs. 16.7%) and higher incidence rates for mammary gland fibroadenoma (67.4% vs. 48.4%), mammary gland carcinoma (10.2% vs. 2.4%), and thyroid gland C cell adenoma (25.4% vs. 13.6%) relative to female F344/N rats. These represent five of the seven most common tumor types among female SD and F344/N rats in the NTP HC database. When vehicle was included as an additional matching criterion, the number of comparable F344/N rat studies dropped to four, but similar results were obtained.

Guidance for the classification of carcinogens under the Globally Harmonised System of Classification and Labelling of Chemicals (GHS)

The United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED) has developed criteria for a globally harmonised system of classification and labelling of chemicals (GHS). With regard to carcinogenicity, GHS distinguishes between Category 1 ('known or presumed human carcinogens') and Category 2 ('suspected human carcinogens'). Category 1 carcinogens are divided into Category 1A ('known to have carcinogenic potential for humans'), based largely on human evidence, and 1B ('presumed to have carcinogenic potential for humans'), based largely on experimental animal data. Concerns have been raised that the criteria for applying these carcinogenicity classifications are not sufficiently well defined and potentially allow different conclusions to be drawn. The current document describes an attempt to reduce the potential for diverse conclusions resulting from the GHS classification system through the application of a series of questions during the evaluation of data from experiments with rodents; epidemiological data, which could lead to Category 1A, have not been considered. Answers to each question can lead either to a classification decision or to the next question, but this process should only be implemented in an environment of informed scientific opinion. The scheme is illustrated with five case studies. These questions are: (1) Has a relevant form of the substance been tested? (2) Is the study design relevant to human exposure? (3) Is there a substance-related response? (4) Is the target tissue exposure relevant to humans? (5) Can a mode of action be established? (6) Is the mode of action relevant to humans? (7) What is the potency?

Identification and interpretation of developmental neurotoxicity effects

The reliable detection, measurement, and interpretation of treatment-related developmental neurotoxicity (DNT) effects depend on appropriate study design and execution, using scientifically established methodologies, with appropriate controls to minimize confounding factors. Appropriate statistical approaches should be optimized for the specific endpoints in advance, analyzing effects across time and functional domains as far as possible. If available, biomarkers of exposure are useful to assess the bioavailability of toxicants to the dam and offspring in utero and after birth. Finally, "weight of evidence" principles are used to aid assessment of the biological significance of differences from concurrent controls. These effects should be interpreted in light of available information from historical controls, positive controls, maternal and offspring systemic toxicity, and other relevant toxicological data. This review provides a framework for the integration of all these types of information in the interpretation of DNT studies.

Undertaking positive control studies as part of developmental neurotoxicity testing: a report from the ILSI Research Foundation/Risk Science Institute expert working group on neurodevelopmental endpoints

Developmental neurotoxicity testing involves functional and neurohistological assessments in offspring during and following maternal and/or neonatal exposure. Data from positive control studies are an integral component in developmental neurotoxicity risk assessments. Positive control data are crucial for evaluating a laboratory's capability to detect chemical-induced changes in measured endpoints. Positive control data are also valuable in a weight-of-evidence approach to help determine the biological significance of results and provide confidence in negative results from developmental neurotoxicity (DNT) studies. This review is a practical guide for the selection and use of positive control agents in developmental neurotoxicology. The advantages and disadvantages of various positive control agents are discussed for the endpoints in developmental neurotoxicity studies. Design issues specific to positive control studies in developmental neurotoxicity are considered and recommendations on how to interpret and report positive control data are made. Positive control studies should be conducted as an integral component of the incorporation and use of developmental neurotoxicity testing methods in laboratories that generate data used in risk decisions.

Incorporating Historical Control Data When Comparing Tumor Incidence Rates

Animal carcinogenicity studies, such as those conducted by the U.S. National Toxicology Program (NTP), focus on detecting trends in tumor rates across dose groups. Over time, the NTP has compiled vast amounts of data on tumors in control animals. Currently, this information is used informally, without the benefit of statistical tests for carcinogenicity that directly incorporate historical data on control animals. This article proposes a survival-adjusted test for detecting dose-related trends in tumor incidence rates, which incorporates data on historical control rates and formally accounts for variation in these rates among studies. An extensive simulation, based on a wide range of realistic situations, demonstrates that the proposed test performs well in comparison to the current NTP test, which does not incorporate historical control data. In particular, our test can aid in interpreting the occurrence of a few tumors in treated animals that are rarely seen in controls. One such example, which motivates our work, concerns the analysis of histiocytic sarcoma in the NTP's 2-year cancer bioassay of benzophenone. Whereas the occurrence of three histiocytic sarcomas in female rats was not significant according to the current NTP testing procedure (P = 0.074), it was highly significant (P = 0.004) when control data from six recent historical studies were included and our test was applied to the combined data.

Incidences of selected lesions in control female Harlan Sprague-Dawley rats from two-year studies performed by the National Toxicology Program

The NTP has a long history of using Fischer rats and has compiled a large database of incidences of lesions seen in control animals. Such a database is lacking for Harlan Sprague-Dawley (SD) rats. The intention of this paper is to report spontaneous lesions observed in female vehicle control Harlan SD rats, and to compare the incidence in 2 strains of rats (Fischer and Harlan SD) used in NTP studies. Female Harlan SD rats served as the test animals for a special series of 2-year studies. Male rats were not used in these studies. Complete histopathology was performed on all animals, and the pathology results underwent comprehensive NTP pathology peer review. The most commonly observed neoplasms in these female control Harlan SD rats were mammary gland fibroadenoma (71%), tumors of the pars distalis of the pituitary (41%) and thyroid gland C-cell tumors (30%). Female Fischer rats had incidences of 44% for mammary gland fibroadenomas, 34% for tumors of the pars distalis, and 16% for thyroid gland C-cell tumors. Fischer rats had a 15% incidence of clitoral gland tumors, while the Harlan SD rats had an incidence of < 1%. In contrast to Fischer F344 rats, the Harlan SD rats had a high incidence of squamous metaplasia of the uterus (44.2%). Squamous metaplasia is not a lesion commonly observed in NTP control Fischer rats. The Harlan SD rats had a very low incidence of mononuclear cell leukemia (0.5%), compared with an incidence of 24% in female Fischer rats.